HomeMy WebLinkAboutWORK ORDER - RFP - 8553 WATER VULNERABILITY STUDYWORK ORDER
PURSUANT TO AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE CITY OF FORT COLLINS
AND
STANTEC CONSULTING SERVICES INC.
DATED: 8/14/17
Work Order Number: 01
Purchase Order Number:
Project Title: Water Supply Vulnerability Study
Original Bid/RFP # & Name: 8553 Water Supply Vulnerability Study
Commencement Date: August 14, 2017
Completion Date: August 10, 2018
Maximum Fee: (time and reimbursable direct costs): $250,000
Project Description: Tasks associated with identifying water supply and demand vulnerabilities.
Scope of Services: See attached scope of work.
Professional agrees to perform the services
identified above and on the attached forms in
accordance with the terms and conditions
contained herein and in the Professional Services
Agreement between the parties. In the event of a
conflict between or ambiguity in the terms of the
Professional Services Agreement and this work
order (including the attached forms) the
Professional Services Agreement shall control.
The attached forms consisting of twelve (12)
pages are hereby accepted and incorporated
herein, by this reference, and Notice to Proceed is
hereby given.
PROFESSIONAL
By:_______________________________
Date:_____________________________
CITY OF FORT COLLINS
Review: ___________________________
Pat Johnson
Senior Buyer
Date: ____________________________
By:_________________________________
Meagan Smith
Project Manager
Date: ______________________________
By: _______________________________
Carol Webb
WR&T Operations Manager
Date: ____________________________
By: _______________________________
Gerry Paul
Purchasing Director (over $60,000.00)
Date: ____________________________
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8/24/2017
8/24/2017
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Task 1 - Project Management
Objective:
Apply project management strategies/tools to assure Utilities’ objectives for the Water
Vulnerability Study are met.
DELIVERABLES:
Project Management Plan: plan for managing scope, budget, schedule, deliverables,
and roles and responsibilities
Monthly Invoices: documentation of hours spent and costs incurred
Monthly Progress Reports: status of scope (competed and upcoming work) and budget;
issues to be addressed
Kick-off Meeting and Progress Meeting Notes: informal meeting notes and action items
Note: All draft technical memoranda and report deliverables will be submitted in Word format to
allow for editing; all final written deliverables will be submitted in Word and PDF format. The City
will collect comments on draft deliverables from City and Northern Water staff and submit a
single consolidated set of comments to the Consultant.
Task 1.1 – Project Management Plan
The Consultant will prepare a Project Management Plan (PMP) with the technical scope,
budget, schedule, deliverables, and roles and responsibilities of Fort Collins, Northern Water, and
the Consultant team. The PMP will include a project schedule in Primavera P6. P6 allows the
development of a time-based budget of costs to be incurred versus time elapsed. The
Consultant will track project performance versus cost and schedule on at least a monthly basis.
Task 1.2 – Meetings
The Consultant will conduct a kick-off meeting and up to 4 monthly progress meetings with the
Utilities/Northern Water project management team. Based on their timing related to other
project activities (e.g., technical workshops), monthly progress meetings may be conducted in
person or via conference call. They are anticipated to last about one hour and will cover recent
project activities, upcoming activities, and issues needing resolution. The kick-off meeting will be
an approximately 2 hour meeting attended by key Consultant staff; it will include a discussion of
the draft PMP and assure there is agreement on lines of communication, project assumptions,
and roles and responsibilities.
Task 1.3 – Monthly Progress Reports and Invoices
The Consultant will submit up to 4 monthly progress reports accompanying monthly invoices. The
progress reports will briefly document work performed during the past month, work anticipated
in the coming month, and a summary of the budget status.
Task 1.4 – Subcontractor Management
The Consultant will manage its three subcontractors using accepted project management
principles. Subcontractors will be responsible for assigning adequate resources to the project;
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managing against their scopes, budgets and schedules; and assuring quality of deliverables and
work performed. The Consultant will incorporate subcontractor costs and progress into its
monthly progress reports.
Task 2 - Background and Literature Review
Objective:
Collect background information on Fort Collins’ water resources system (facilities, operations,
water rights, etc.) and past climate change studies. Agree on the analytical approach for
developing future hydrology under climate change assumptions.
DELIVERABLES:
Notes from Workshop #1 – Information Transfer: summary of the information collected
and the assumptions and tools to be used in the vulnerability analysis
Technical Memorandum (TM) #1 – Climate Change Literature Review: summary of the
results of the climate change literature review
Notes from Workshop#2 – Hydrologic Analysis Options: summary of discussion of future
hydrology options and input to finalize the future hydrology approach for the study
TM #2 - Final Hydrologic Analysis Approach: summary of the adopted approach for
generating climate change-induced hydrologic scenarios and implementation
requirements for the vulnerability analysis
Task 2.1 – Background Information Transfer
The Consultant will conduct a workshop and a review meeting to assimilate background
information from Utilities and Northern Water that is relevant to the execution of this project.
Workshop #1 – Information Transfer. Utilities and Northern Water staff will present and discuss
identified topics that the Consultant feels it needs more information on. The workshop will cover
the following topics:
Current population growth and demand projection methods
Current water supply sources and infrastructure
Current demand-side management strategies
Current water supply plans and strategies
Comparable studies prepared for other regional providers
Existing Northern Water tools to evaluate the CBT quota in future scenarios
Current performance of water supply service metrics, level of service policies, and
operation decision thresholds
This workshop will be a half day meeting, with presentations and discussion of approaches,
assumptions and key information to be embedded or revised for the vulnerability study. The
project manager and technical leads will attend the workshop and will summarize and share the
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results with the rest of the team. Utilities and Northern Water will provide presentations with
information, tools, and assumptions for the selected topics at the workshop, and provide
relevant documents and reports.
Model Review Meeting: The Consultant will conduct a two-hour meeting to review ongoing Fort
Collins modeling efforts, current and historical operations, water supply portfolios, water rights,
and storage acquisition. The review meeting will be used to gather feedback on the new
modeling system and discuss expectations and recent updates on these topics relevant to this
project. This review meeting will be attended by Consultant Technical Leads and modeling
staff.
Task 2.2 – Climate Change Literature Review
The Consultant will consider two overarching approaches to represent future hydrologic
conditions in the Water Vulnerability Study. The first is a top-down approach that uses a set of
representative predictions of temperature and precipitation changes simulated by the Global
Circulation Models (GCMs). The second is a bottom-up approach that evaluates performance
for estimated hydrologic conditions based on potential combinations of precipitation and
temperature changes, allowing identification of future climates for which water system
performance is unsatisfactory. The Consultant will conduct a Literature Review to investigate
past examples of both approaches to support adoption of an approach for this project.
The Consultant will focus the literature review on: 1) recent studies with methods and techniques
to consider climate change in municipal water supply planning, and 2) availability of existing
tools and data in the study area that are candidates to be adopted for this study. The goal of
the review will be to complement and expand the experience and techniques used in the past
and inform the approach selection with available tools and data.
As a minimum the Consultant will consider the following sources of information, data, and
models to support development of the climate change approach to represent future climate
conditions for this study.
EPA CREAT CREAT is the US Environmental Protection
Agency’s (EPA) Climate Resilience Evaluation
and Awareness Tool. It provides a generalized
framework for water utilities’ risk assessment
and climate resiliency planning.
Joint Front Range Climate Change
Vulnerability Study (JFRCCVS)
The JFRCCVS provides sets of climate-adjusted
streamflow sequences representing the impact
of selected future climate projections on
undepleted streamflow volumes. This study has
analysis points in the study area, including the
Cache la Poudre River, the Big Thompson
River, and the Colorado River. The points
evaluated are representative, and will need
additional analyses or data processing for
detailed application in this vulnerability
analysis.
Colorado River Water Availability Study
(CRWAS)
The CRWAS was led by the Colorado Water
Conservation Board to estimate Colorado
River water availability. The study projected
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how much water from the Colorado River
Basin System will be available to meet
Colorado’s future water needs under alternate
hydrologies.
West-Wide Climate Risk Assessment, U.S.
Bureau of Reclamation
WWCRA provides downscaled climate and
hydrology projections with flexible spatial
resolution over the contiguous US. This can be
used to estimate streamflow for individual
GCM projections.
The above sources will suggest methods and preprocessed data to simplify the large GCM
datasets and generate predictions to represent future conditions. The Consultant will evaluate
their applicability to this study, summarizing the pros and cons to support the development of
the final study approach. The Consultant will consider assumptions, methods, tools, and
information available in the evaluation.
The Consultant will prepare Technical Memorandum (TM) #1 – Climate Change Literature
Review to summarize the results of the literature review for review by the City and Northern
Water.
Workshop #2 – The Consultant will work with Utilities and Northern Water to evaluate options and
develop the approach for modeling future hydrologic scenarios based on the data and model
availability review findings. The Consultant will conduct a workshop to review the findings, the
pros and cons of alternatives, and the proposed approach.
The Consultant will finalize the future hydrology modeling approach that will include a method
to select a set of future conditions and to calculate the estimated streamflow at key locations in
both the Poudre and Colorado Rivers for the PBN model and the C-BT system. The approach
also will include requirements for incorporating modified hydrology in the new data-centered
modeling system (Task 5) and the scenario development process (Task 6).
The Consultant will prepare TM #2 - Final Hydrologic Analysis Approach to document the
adopted climate change and hydrologic analysis methods, approaches and assumptions.
Task 3 – Future Water Demand Considerations
Objective:
Develop a GIS-based method of estimating future water demand based on land use
characteristics, and apply that method to estimate future water demands under a range of
possible future conditions.
DELIVERABLES:
Notes from Workshop #3 – Water Demand Drivers and Methods: summary of workshop
on factors affecting water demand and potential methods of estimating future demands
from land use characteristics
TM #3 – Future Water Demand Estimating Methods: summary of 1) the information to be
considered in the demand analysis; 2) the assumptions and drivers to be used in the
demand analysis; and 3) documentation on how to use the demand estimating tool
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Water Demand GIS Database and Estimation Tool: a GIS-based tool and custom GUI,
integrated with the modeling system DMS, capable of generating demand scenarios
under various criteria, including geographic region, land use conditions, climate
scenarios, and other potential future conditions
The Consultant will adopt a spatially-based approach to estimate future water demands that is
flexible at incorporating changes in demand assumptions that are difficult to capture with
regression-type approaches. This will be conducted in two phases. Phase 1 will consist of all the
activities to develop a GIS-centered demand estimation tool (Tasks 3.1through 3.4). Phase 2 will
consist of applying the tool to specified future conditions developed as a result of the risk and
uncertainty identification process in Task 4 (Task 3.5).
Task 3.1 - Water Demand GIS Database
The Consultant will develop a GIS-based database and data to provide the foundation for
evaluating future water demand. The Consultant will work with Utilities and other related
agencies to collect existing base data that will be used to estimate future water demand. Base
data will include parcel boundaries, management boundaries (i.e., the city limit, utilities service
area, and Growth Management Area [GMA]), zoning, population projections, growth
projections, and per capita water use, as well as other necessary data.
The Consultant will combine current estimates of outdoor water consumption with remotely
sensed methods at the parcel scale to establish the baseline outdoor consumption. This method
will include collecting recent (i.e., 2017 if available) 0.5-meter resolution 4-band satellite imagery,
using the current city parcels geometry as-is, without ground-truthing, to determine irrigated
areas based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) without separating grasses
from trees. Although this basic spatial representation could be refined to improve estimates of
water consumption throughout the City, it provides the foundation and flexibility needed for the
vulnerability analysis. By mapping individual parcel irrigation use, actual irrigation information
can be linked with other information and assumptions to represent future demand scenarios.
The water demand GIS database will help define the relationship between information on water
demand drivers and parcel characteristics, apply changes and adjustments for future
conditions, and ultimately estimate the total demand by aggregating the parcel information.
The database will provide a method for future data to be both updated and included by Utilities
staff. Subsequent tasks for framework buildout and the demand tool interface will directly use
the database for building demand scenarios and calculating water demand.
Task 3.2 – Demand Drivers and Methods Workshop
Workshop #3 – The Consultant will conduct a half-day workshop with both Utilities and Northern
Water staff to identify specific drivers and methods to represent future water demand. Methods
will include rules and assumptions to adjust water demand predictions using various data,
including:
Growth projections
Population forecasts
Outdoor irrigation areas, water requirements (hotter climate), and consumption
projections
Adoption of xeriscaping
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Redevelopment, land use, and zoning
Residential water use efficiencies
Local rainwater use
Reuse/gray-water systems
Conservation effectiveness
Economic conditions and industrial water demand
The GIS and database information will provide detailed information regarding the parcels’
current and past water demand, providing local characteristics and trends that can be used to
inform assumptions for the methods.
With input from the workshop, the Consultant will document the methods, drivers and
assumptions to be used in developing an evaluation framework as described in Task 3.3.
Task 3.3 – Demand Framework Development
The Consultant will integrate the water demand GIS database with future water demand
estimation methods, defined in Task 3.2, to create a framework for estimating future water
demand scenarios at the parcel scale. The framework will consist of procedures and processes
to attach information and apply assumptions to georeferenced parcel polygons based on
criteria defined in the method. The framework will result in a master relational database with
functionality to generate total water demand for different spatial areas (i.e., the city limits,
Utilities service area, and GMA), future conditions, and specific risks or uncertainties. This
approach will enable application of complex criteria to create future water demand scenarios.
Task 3.4 – Demand Estimation Tool and Custom Interface
The Consultant will develop a custom demand scenario development tool that will be used to
estimate water demand under future scenarios. The tool will be integrated into the Utilities
modeling system data management system (DMS) with a user-friendly graphical interface (GUI).
This tool will implement the demand framework developed in Task 3.3 to generate total demand
based on the user-defined preferences. The tool will be designed for flexible applications,
allowing generation and cataloging of demand scenarios by selecting multiple potential
conditions and threats. Demand scenarios will be available in the database and DMS for the
vulnerability analysis to be performed in Task 6. Assumptions for each scenario will be logged in
the database as part of the demand scenario cataloging to provide transparency and allow
revising assumptions in the future.
The Consultant will design the tool consistent with the outcomes of Tasks 3.2 and 3.3 with the
main purpose of generating demand scenarios for the modeling system. At a minimum the
Water Demand Tool GUI will include:
A map interface showing a spatial view of the selected region for analysis
Spatial coverage (i.e., GMA, Utilities boundaries, city extent)
Demand driver options, assumption toggles, and application criteria
Visualization of demand framework output (e.g., spatial, graphical and tabular)
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The Consultant will prepare TM #3 – Future Water Demand Estimating Methods to summarize 1)
the information to be considered in the demand analysis; 2) the assumptions and drivers to be
used in the demand analysis; and 3) documentation on how to use the demand estimating tool.
It is recognized that the ultimate method of estimating future demands for the Vulnerability
Study may differ from the process described in Tasks 3.1 through 3.4 based on information
obtained during the study, other available tools/methods, or direction from Utilities. The
Consultant will base its project budget on the methods described herein. If those methods
change, the budget may be changed accordingly.
Task 3.5 – Demand Forecasts
The Water Demand Tool will be used to estimate future water demand under a broad range of
future conditions resulting from variability in the key demand-related risks and uncertainties from
Task 4. The result will be a range of future demand projections encompassing the variation in key
drivers and uncertainties. These demands will then be applied in the vulnerability assessment in
Task 6 to determine the impact of demand on water supply system performance when
combined with other factors such as climate change and operational considerations.
Task 4 – Identify Water Supply and Demand
Vulnerabilities
Objective:
Identify and prioritize risks, uncertainties and threats to the Fort Collins water supply system, and
select key metrics and level of service goals with which to assess system performance. Establish a
planning horizon for the Vulnerability Study.
DELIVERABLES:
Notes from Workshop 4A – Fort Collins Water Supply Risks, Workshop 4B – Northern Water
C-BT Water Supply Risks, and Workshop 4C – Integration of Fort Collins and Northern
Water’s Water Supply Risks: documentation of the process and risks identified for each
component of Fort Collins water supply
TM #4 – Risks and Uncertainties: summary of identified risks and uncertainties from Fort
Collins and Northern Water, a summary of likelihood and impact scores, and
quantification of risk impacts where possible without the modeling analysis proposed in
Task 6
Notes from Workshop 5 – Defining Metrics and Level of Service Goals: documentation of
the discussion of potential system performance metrics and level of service goals
TM #5 – Metrics and Level of Service Goals: summary of identified performance metrics
and level of service goals
Task 4.1 Risk Identification, Prioritization and Quantification
Utilities’ water supply faces many future threats, from climate change and demand hardening
to aging infrastructure and wildfires. The Consultant will work with Utilities to identify these risks,
quantify how they could impact the water supply system, and prioritize them for modeling. These
threats could come from a variety of sources, e.g., legal threats such as Colorado River
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Compact curtailment, climate threats such as extended droughts, and infrastructure risks such
as emergency maintenance outages. The Consultant will organize the risk identification process
around the following categories: climate and hydrology, watershed, operations, legal &
administrative, and demand.
Workshop #4A &4B – The Consultant will conduct two full-day risk identification workshops. One
workshop will be held with Utilities staff and another separate workshop will be held with Northern
Water staff. Attendees at these workshops will include broad representation from each
organization and include planning and engineering staff, operational staff, financial staff, and
leadership.
The goal of these workshops is to brainstorm the many potential risks that could occur and
classify them based on likelihood and impact using a standardized scoring process. Using a
standardized scoring process will allow different risks to be evaluated using a consistent
comparative framework (e.g., extreme, moderate, or insignificant threat). During these
workshops, the Consultant will leverage subject matter experts within and outside the project
team for assessing risks and identifying management strategies.
Workshop #4C – Since Utilities water supply system receives C-BT water from Northern Water,
coordination between the two agencies during this task will be required. Therefore, the
Consultant will conduct a third full-day workshop with water supply staff from Utilities and
Northern Water to coordinate and integrate the selection of key risks and uncertainties.
Demand-related risks and uncertainties identified in this task will be used to supplement the
demand drivers and forecasting uncertainties developed in Task 3.2.
Concurrently with the risk prioritization process, the Consultant will estimate the anticipated
impacts of the risks on Utilities’ or Northern Water’s water supply system or demands if
appropriate. For some risks, it is possible for staff to assign an anticipated impact (e.g., reduction
in yield from a watershed, reduction in capacity of a pipeline). Doing this will simplify the
vulnerability study while not diminishing the results and allowing modeling efforts to be focused
on risks that do not have a reasonably known impact (e.g., climate change, future water use
changes).
The Consultant will work with Fort Collins and Northern Water to select an appropriate planning
horizon for the Vulnerability Study. This is needed to guide the timeframe over which risks and
uncertainties will be considered, and will also specify bounds for future demand estimates and
climate change effects.
The Consultant will prepare TM #4 – Risks and Uncertainties to summarize identified risks and
uncertainties from Fort Collins and Northern Water, likelihood and impact scores, and
quantification of risk impacts where possible.
Task 4.2 Identify Performance Metrics and Level of Service Goals
The Consultant will work with Utilities to identify metrics that could be used to assess water supply
performance. The Consultant will also work with Utilities to associate level of service goals (i.e.,
targets or thresholds) with key performance metrics that will enable Utilities to use results from the
Vulnerability Study to determine future conditions that force performance of the water supply
system into unsatisfactory conditions. These performance metrics and level of service goals will
be developed during Workshop #5, a half-day workshop, but could be refined and expanded
as new insights are gained during the study.
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The result will be a unique set of metrics and level of service goals for Utilities that will allow
existing and future water supply system performance to be tested against objective criteria that
are useful to decision-makers and can be explained to the public.
The Consultant will prepare TM #5 – Metrics and Level of Service Goals including a summary of
identified performance metrics and level of service goals.
Task 5 – Develop Potential Yield Changes
Objective:
Develop a set of future hydrologic time series for local system and C-BT inflows based on a range
of climate change assumptions using the process developed in Task 2.
DELIVERABLES:
Notes from Workshop #6 – Preliminary Hydrology Results: presentation of preliminary
application of the hydrologic analysis methods developed in Task 2
TM #6 – Future Hydrologic Analysis: summary of methods and results for computing
hydrologic ensembles representing future climate conditions
Updated Modeling Database: updated modeling system DMS incorporating hydrology-
derived datasets for the future conditions to be considered in the vulnerability analysis
Task 5.1 – Development of Future Hydrology Scenarios for the Modeling System
The outcome of Task 2 will be an approved approach for the Vulnerability Study hydrologic
analysis. In this task the Consultant will apply the approved approach to estimate hydrologic
inputs to the Fort Collins System Model and PBN for a range of future climate conditions or
GCMs.
Northern Water has a model for estimating C-BT quotas based on Upper Colorado River
hydrology. The Consultant will provide the hydrologic changes resulting from application of the
methods selected select in Task 2 to Northern Water and will coordinate with them to generate
climate change-altered C-BT quotas tied to future hydrologic conditions. Northern Water will
actually perform the C-BT quota analysis. Past studies of the correlation between Poudre Basin
and Upper Colorado River Basin hydrology will be used to generate compatible combinations of
local system hydrology and C-BT yields for use in the Fort Collins System Model.
The result of this subtask will be ensembles of hydrologic time series that represent the range of
future climate conditions selected for the study as a result of the climate research in Task 2 and
the risk identification process in Task 3. Preliminary results will be presented in Workshop #6, a
half-day meeting for review and discussion of application of method and initial findings with
Utilities and Northern Water.
For purposes of the Work Order budget, the Consultant will assume future hydrology will be
determined using the following bottom-up approach.
The JFRCCVS calibrated hydrologic models will be used to predict the flow at selected
points in the Poudre River basin and in the Colorado River basin.
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The existing hydrologic model will be used to simulate the effect of precipitation and
temperature changes on streamflow.
Results in the Colorado River Basin will be compared to results of the CRWAS and
adjusted if necessary to be consistent with the modeling in that study.
The change in flows at the JFRCCVS analysis point will be used to prorate the PBN input
based on an average area precipitation weighting to preserve the basin characteristics
captured in the historical flows.
Based on the refined approach developed in Task 2 to represent future hydrology scenarios and
develop the data for the hydrology scenarios, the Consultant may adjust the above approach
and associated budget if needed.
The Consultant will prepare TM #6 – Future Hydrologic Analysis to document methods and results
for computing hydrologic ensembles representing future climate conditions.
Task 5.2 – Incorporation of Hydrologic Time Series Into DMS
The Consultant will incorporate the climate change-altered streamflow time series predictions for
the PBN model into the Fort Collins Modeling System database. The Consultant will develop DMS
procedures (e.g., SQL statements and .NET functions) to automate the time series processing for
the PBN model’ input nodes, including executing the model and extracting and processing the
results to make them available in the modeling system. The PBN model will provide the
information to simulate water rights yields for the Fort Collins system, while the C-BT model will
estimate the quota for the C-BT users. The Consultant will use the existing PBN import tool in the
DMS to process and import the PBN model results and catalog them into the database
hydrology sets, including the associated estimated C-BT quotas from Northern Water’s model.
List and Approximate Schedule of Workshops
Workshop Task Approximate Date
Kickoff Meeting Task 1 August 17, 2017
Workshop #1 – Information Transfer Task 2 September 18, 2017
Workshop #2 – Hydrologic Analysis Options Task 2 November 14, 2017
Model Review Meeting Task 2 TBD
Workshop #3 – Water Demand Drivers and Methods Task 3 October 10, 2017
Workshop #4A – Fort Collins Water Supply Risks Task 4 October 24, 2017
Workshop #4B – Northern Water C-BT Water Supply
Risks
Task 4 November 17, 2017
Workshop #4C – Integration of Fort Collins and
Northern Water’s Water Supply Risks Task 4 November 30, 2017
Workshop #5 – Defining Metrics and Level of Service
Goals
Task 4 January 8, 2018
Workshop #6 – Preliminary Hydrology Results Task 5 February 9, 2018
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List and Approximate Schedule of Deliverables
Deliverable Task Approximate Date
Project Management Plan Task 1 August 18, 2017
Monthly Progress Reports and Invoices Task 1 Monthly
TM #1 – Climate Change Literature Review Task 2 October 13, 2017
TM #2 - Final Hydrologic Analysis Approach Task 2 December 15, 2017
TM #3 – Future Water Demand Estimating Methods Task 3 January 19, 2017
TM #4 – Risks and Uncertainties Task 4 December 22, 2017
TM #5 – Metrics and Level of Service Goals Task 4 February 21, 2018
TM #6 – Future Hydrologic Analysis Task 5 April 20, 2018
Schedule
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Budget
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