HomeMy WebLinkAboutRFP - 7346 DEMOGRAPHIC FORECAST FOR NFRMPOADDENDUM No. 1
SPECIFICATIONS AND CONTRACT DOCUMENTS
Description of BID 7346: Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO
OPENING DATE: 3:00 PM (Our Clock) March 16, 2012
To all prospective bidders under the specifications and contract documents described
above, the following changes/additions are hereby made and detailed in the following
sections of this addendum:
Exhibit 1 – Questions & Answers
Exhibit 2 – NFRMPO 2035 Forecast Report
Please contact James B. O'Neill, FNIGP, CPPO, Buyer at (970) 221-6779 with any
questions regarding this addendum.
RECEIPT OF THIS ADDENDUM MUST BE ACKNOWLEDGED BY A WRITTEN
STATEMENT ENCLOSED WITH THE BID/QUOTE STATING THAT THIS
ADDENDUM HAS BEEN RECEIVED.
Financial Services
Purchasing Division
215 N. Mason St. 2nd Floor
PO Box 580
Fort Collins, CO 80522
970.221.6775
970.221.6707
fcgov.com/purchasing
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 1 of 72
EXHIBIT 1 – QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
Q. Do you have a limit on the length of the proposal?
A. There is no limit on length, but brevity is preferable.
Q. You ask for QCEW jobs. Do you have data, or do we need to collect the data
from scratch?
A. We would need to agree on a quarter for this data and purchase it. I am
attaching the last Forecast Report from 2006 for your reference.
Q. At what level of NAICS detail do you want the jobs forecast, i.e. two digit, three
digit, etc?
A. The last report used 17 categories; I don’t know how that translates into
digits.
Q. Does NFRMPO have historical data series for the required forecast information,
or will we do the data collection?
A. What we have historically are two previous Forecast Reports.
Q. At what level of detail would you like the personal income forecast?
A. We need the level that is most compatible with the Land Use and Travel
Model. This is discussed in the attached document but may be further
refined as the project is fully scoped.
Q. The RFP asks for “other variables as determined by staff” and “other
demographics as determined by staff.” This is a bit open-ended. Could you be
more specific?
A. A portion of the forecast work is in the nonattainment area for ozone in
Weld and Larimer Counties. There may be additional information to be
collected if time and budget allow such as lodging data for Estes Park.
Q. Is there a budget for this particular RFP forecast that is public information? If so,
can you tell us what that is?
A. The budget is not publically available.
Q. The subarea forecasts could be very challenging. Does NFEMPO have historical
data to support these?
A. We have subarea information in the last Forecast Report that is attached
to this email.
Q. The RFP requests “Profit and overhead amounts should be noted in the Cost
breakout.” We typically quote expected hours and an hourly rate. Will that be
sufficient?
A. We need hours and hourly rate as well as profit. This is a federal
procurement requirement.
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 2 of 72
ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC
FORECAST
FOR THE
NORTH FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
& ITS SUB-REGIONS
March 31, 2006
Prepared for
The North Front Range Transportation and
Air Quality Planning Council
By
Center for Business and Economic Forecasting, Inc.
EXHIBIT 2 - NFRMPO 2035 FORECAST REPORT
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OVERVIEW
This forecast covers economic and demographic variables including jobs by industry,
personal income, population and households for the North Front Range Modeling Area
and four sub-regions within the modeling area. The modeling area and the sub-regions
are shown in the map below. The forecast extends through 2035. The outlook for the
region’s economy drives the forecast of jobs and population. The Results section
summarizes the findings. The Modeling Area forecast is based on a model which
balances the demand for labor and the supply of workers. The sub-regional models
distribute the Modeling Area’s growth among the four sub-regions. These steps are
described in greater detail in the Methodology section of this report. Tables with detailed
results are in the Appendix.
MAP of REGION & SUB-REGIONS
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RESULTS
Over the past 30 years the North Front Range has experienced rapid economic growth
and this trend is expected to continue. The Modeling Area’s growth rates in employment
and population are expected to exceed those of the State during the next thirty years. The
factors affecting this growth include the availability of private and public infrastructure,
high quality of the local communities, the comparative attractiveness of the local
economy and the innovation of local firms. The numbers seem staggering, an increase of
almost 300,000 new residents and about 175,000 additional job. Yet within the larger
context, this growth represents about 10% of total new development within the State for
the next three decades. Currently, the North Front Range communities account for about
8.4% of the jobs and 9.3% of the total population.
While public focus often falls on new development of housing and the resulting
population, the driver of most of the growth within Colorado is increased economic
activity. This economic growth occurs primarily in two manners: increased productivity
and increased employment. The former results in increased wage levels and increased
corporate earnings. In the late nineties, Colorado experienced significant job growth.
Firms in the NFR area participated in this growth. Unfortunately, some of these gains
were lost during the recent economic slowdown. Job levels remained essentially stagnant
during the past four years.
However, housing and population growth did continue through the early part of this
decade. The North Front Range communities grew by a combined 53,000 persons over
the last five years, or about 13%. The growth was concentrated within the proximity of I-
25, often considered the “main street” of the region.
The forecast described below is a trend forecast. It does not include cyclical expansions
or recessions but calls for smooth growth. It includes no major disruptions at the
regional, state or national level. It also assumes that the supply of energy, water or other
critical inputs is sufficient to accommodate the forecast growth and that governments are
able to provide the necessary public services and infrastructure.
The North Front Range is now experiencing a healthy recovery from the recent recession.
This recovery is forecast to continue and the region should enjoy continued robust growth
over the next three decades, although growth will be slower than during the 1990s; the
number of jobs in the modeling area grows from 226,000 in 2005 to 414,000 thirty years
later, an average annual growth of 2.0 percent. While this is stronger growth than that
experienced over the past 5 years, it is well below the 4.2 percent growth of the decade of
the 90s or the 4.5 percent job growth experienced by Larimer and Weld Counties
between 1970 and 2000. This slowing is consistent with that at the state and national
levels, a result of slower labor force growth. Slower growth in the NFR area can also be
expected as the regional economy increases in size and matures. Of the 190,000 new
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jobs, more than 100,000 are direct basic jobs generated by outside dollars flowing into
the region. The remaining jobs are non-basic resident service jobs resulting from
expenditures of earnings from the basic jobs and suppliers to the direct basic industries.
The three largest contributors to growth in direct basic jobs are regional center/national
service, expenditures of property income by persons under 65 and retiree spending. The
industrial growth pattern for all jobs shows the fastest growth in the services area.
Industries with the most new jobs include professional, scientific and technical services;
administrative, support and waste services; education, health care and social assistance;
and accommodation and food services.
Population in the area, estimated at 440,000 in 2005, is forecast to increase to 730,000 in
2035.1 The proportion of the population over 65 increases by 4 percentage points while
the share of those under 24 declines by 3 percentage points. With an older population,
the average household size falls from 2.59 in 2005 to 2.45 in 2035. The number of
households increases by 125,000. Personal income registers healthy growth throughout
the forecast period. Per capita income remains above the national average.
Colorado Forecast
The NFR economy is heavily dependent upon developments in Colorado, the US and the
rest of the world. The section of the report describes the state and national outlook over
the next 30 years. The Colorado forecast along with a few key national variables are
shown in Appendix Tables 1-A and 2-A. Table 1-A shows key state and national
variables while Table 2-A shows state labor supply and demand in a format similar to
that used for the region. The state and national outlook is described below.
US Outlook
The outlook for the US economy is the most important determinant of the performance of
the Colorado economy as well as that in the modeling area. The US forecast is a trend
projection, which includes neither major shocks to the economy nor business cycles after
recovery from the recent downturn. The current recovery is expected to continue but the
pace of growth is anticipated to be well short of that in the late 1990s. In the longer term,
the driving forces for US growth are demographics and productivity. Demographic
trends are dominated by the large baby-boom generation. Growth in output and
especially employment slows markedly after 2012 as the baby boomers retire.
Productivity gains are expected to exceed those of the 1970s or 1980s but will not
achieve the gains seen in the late 1990s. The makeup of output will change over the next
30 years. The share of GDP in services, particularly health care, will increase while that
in goods production will fall. Investment will be strong throughout the forecast and
1 These estimates correspond to the numbers reported in the Census rather than the
“Adjusted Population” which includes an adjustment for undercount.
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foreign trade will increase. Oil prices are forecast to remain near their current level over
the next 5 years. This reflects recent crude oil futures which remain above $60 per barrel
through December 2011. After 2010 the price of oil is projected to increase slightly
faster than inflation.
Colorado Outlook
Between 2001 and 2003 the Colorado economy experienced a recession as severe as any
in the post World War II era. A slowing national economy along with sharp downturns
in such key state industries as technology, telecommunications and tourism resulted in
sizable job losses and declines in sales and real income. The state began to recover in
mid-2003 and the pace of growth has continued to accelerate. Over the past year,
Colorado growth has exceeded that of the US. Barring a national recession, the state
economy should continue to expand through the remainder of this decade. However,
growth will be markedly slower than in the 1990s, although faster than that of the nation.
The longer-term outlook calls for state growth to continue to surpass the nation but by
only a narrowing margin. The pace of the Colorado economy, like that of the nation, will
moderate due to smaller increases in the labor force as the population ages. Gains in
jobs, population and income will be less than the boom periods of the 1970s or the 1990s.
Labor markets are expected to remain tight, although unemployment rates will be higher
than in the late 1990s. Strong investment spending should benefit Colorado
manufacturing and software industries. Colorado’s population, like that of the US, will,
on average, become older. An aging population will mean greater expenditures and
employment in medical services. Homebuilding is expected to remain near recent levels,
but will decline as a share of economic activity. Chart 1 compares Colorado and US Job
growth.
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Chart 1
US & COLO JOB GROWTH
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
5 yrs ending
Ann. Pct. Ch.
US
CO
Modeling Area Labor Supply and Demand
Direct Basic Jobs
As noted earlier, regional job demand growth is driven by the increase in direct basic
jobs, i.e. those generated by outside dollars flowing into the region. Changes in the mix
of basic jobs show the expected evolution in the region’s economy. Jobs in the
traditional economic base—agribusiness, mining and manufacturing—grow slowly,
although the region’s advanced technology industries should benefit from continued
strong investment spending. Construction jobs will increase, but at a slower pace than
during the 1990s. Trade and service basic jobs will account for an increasing share of the
economic base. Business services jobs are expected to see the fastest growth. State
government jobs, largely in education, account for most of the increase in the government
sector. Basic jobs from household spending will assume an increased importance. In
particular, spending by retirees and spending of property income account for a rising
share of new basic jobs. The detailed breakdown of direct basic industrial jobs is shown
in Appendix Table 3-A while Table 5-A shows these jobs broken down into broad
industrial categories and also shows household basic jobs.
Chart 2 shows the change in direct basic industrial jobs by major industry group between
2005 and 2035. Among the major industry groups mining, manufacturing and
government correspond to industries in those categories. Agriculture includes farming
and other dependent businesses, such as those transporting agricultural products and food
processing. Tourism includes a variety of jobs in many industries that result from visitor
spending. The regional center/national service category covers those jobs attributed to
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spending on services by residents of adjacent areas. For example, it would include retail
employees in Greeley whose jobs depend on spending of shoppers from northeast
Colorado outside the NFR region. This category also includes jobs supported by services
provided to the national or world economy, such as some of those in architectural and
engineering firms. Most of the growth in direct basic industrial jobs is expected to occur
in the regional center/national service category. The share of jobs in this category grows
from roughly one-quarter of the total in 2005 to nearly one-half in 2035.
Chart 2
DIRECT BASIC INDUSTRIAL JOBS
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Tourism
Region Center/National
Service
Government
Manufacturing
Mining
Agriculture
Chart 3 shows direct basic jobs resulting from household spending. These are jobs
generated from spending of outside income by residents. Most of the growth occurs
among jobs due to spending by retirees and by expenditures of property income, i.e.
outside earnings from investments. The number of jobs in both categories more than
doubles over the 30-year period. Rapid growth is due to the increasing elderly
population and the growing importance of “unearned income”, e.g. income other than
wages and proprietors’ earnings. Jobs from federal payments, mostly public assistance,
grow with overall population. Jobs due to commuter spending reflect the fact that the
region is expected to continue to show net commuting out of the area.
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Chart 3
HOUSEHOLD DIRECT BASIC JOBS
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Persons Over 65
Prop. Income <65
Fed Payments <65
Commuters
All Jobs
Chart 4
JOBS BY TYPE
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Non-basic R.S.
HH D.B.
Industrial D.B.
Chart 4 shows all jobs for the region by type. Over the next 30 years the area is forecast
to add 54,000 industrial direct basic jobs and 52,000 household basic jobs. Along with
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these direct basic jobs, some 81,000 non-basic resident service jobs are also expected.
We see a relatively larger contribution of household basic jobs to overall growth as the
impacts of retirees and spending of income from sources other than jobs becomes more
important. The number of non-basic resident service jobs generated per direct basic job
is expected to decline. This can be described as a smaller overall “job multiplier” for the
direct basic jobs. This outcome occurs because a greater share of the new jobs will be in
the service industries which are, on average, lower paying and have less important supply
relationships than do those in such industries as mining or manufacturing. Total jobs in
the NFR area increase from than 226,000 in 2005 to more than 414,000 in 30 years.
Jobs and Population Growth
To meet the demand for new workers, new residents will move into the region resulting
in continued population growth. Chart 5 shows annual growth in jobs and population
since 1990. Job and population growth both slow from the fast pace of the 1990s.
However, the deceleration in job growth is expected to be faster. The ratio of new
residents to new jobs increases from 1.3 in the 1990s to 1.6 in the last 15 years of the
forecast. This is almost entirely the result of falling labor force participation as the
population ages. The share of population available for work, which incorporates the
labor force participation rate and the adult share of total population, reaches its peak
around 2020 and declines thereafter as the baby-boom generation moves past the normal
retirement age.
Chart 5
GROWTH IN JOBS AND POPULATION
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
90-2000 2000-10 2010-20 2020-35
Ann. Ch.
jobs
population
The relationship of population to jobs is determined by several factors. The changing age
mix of the population has a major impact. Over the forecast period, adults become a
larger share of the total population. However, much of this increase is due to more
persons over 65 and the resulting labor force participation rate declines. No significant
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change is projected in either the unemployment rate or the multiple job holding rate. The
net number of persons commuting out of the modeling area in 2000 was estimated at
17,600 and this figure is estimated to have increased to 19,000 over the past 5 years. Net
commuting from the NFR area remains close to about 10,000 throughout the forecast
period. It shows some decline late in the period, reflecting faster growth in the NFR area
than in Metro Denver. The 2005 population, based on the 2000 Census count, is
estimated at 440,000 with another 8,000 persons reflecting those not counted in the
Census. By 2035 Census based population is projected to reach 730,000 with an
expected 12,000 in the undercount group.
Jobs by Industry
Table 2 shows regional job growth for 17 industry groups. The numbers in the table
include all jobs both direct basic and non-basic resident service. The industrial growth
pattern for all jobs shows the fastest growth in the services area. Industries with the most
new jobs include professional, scientific and technical services; administrative, support
and waste services; education, health care and social assistance; and accommodation and
food services. Greater detail on jobs by industry is in Table 6-A.
Table 2
2001-10 2010-20 2020-35
Agriculture -3.1% -0.3% -0.6%
Mining and Utilities 1.3% -0.5% -1.7%
Construction -0.8% 2.7% 2.2%
Manufacturing -3.2% 0.8% 0.5%
Wholesale and Retail -0.2% 2.0% 1.1%
Transportation and Warehousing -3.2% 3.5% 2.4%
Information 0.6% 2.9% 1.3%
Finance and Insurance 2.6% 2.6% 1.0%
Real Estate 4.2% 3.0% 1.1%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical 4.5% 2.9% 3.7%
Management of Companies -0.9% 1.3% 0.2%
Administrative and support and waste 1.5% 4.2% 3.2%
Education, Health Care and Social Assistance 3.3% 3.0% 1.9%
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 2.0% 2.5% 1.2%
Accomodation and Food Services 1.9% 2.7% 1.2%
Other Services 0.9% 2.0% 1.8%
Government 1.1% 1.9% 0.4%
All Industries 2.0% 2.4% 1.6%
JOB GROWTH BY INDUSTRY GROUP
(Annual Pct. Change)
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Population and Income
Age Mix of the Population
Chart 6 shows the distribution of modeling area population by age. The changes in the
age makeup for this region show similar patterns to that for the nation or other regions.
These include an increasing share of older persons and a drop in the share of school age
population. These changes result from the aging of the baby-boom generation. However,
the shifts are less extreme for this region, as the large number of persons migrating into
the area moderates these patterns. New migrants are predominately working-age adults
and their children. Table 7-A shows projected population in greater detail.
Chart 6
POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY AGE
7.7% 6.7% 7.0% 6.6% 6.4%
18.8% 18.9% 17.1% 17.1% 16.2%
14.3% 14.2% 13.2% 11.5%
11.0%
33.7% 30.1%
28.4% 29.7% 29.4%
15.9% 21.0% 24.4%
22.4% 23.1%
9.5% 9.1% 9.8% 12.7% 13.9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2035
65 & over
45-64
25-44
18-24
5-17
Under 5
Personal Income
Personal income forecasts for the modeling area are shown in Appendix Table 5-A. With
reasonably strong job growth, personal income is expected to post solid gains through the
forecast period. Between 2005 and 2035 growth in current dollars averages 6.6 percent
per year which translates into real annual growth in income of almost four percent. Per
capita personal income for the modeling area will also remain above the national average.
Households
Household estimates for the modeling area is shown in Chart 7. The household figures
reflect forecast population growth as well as the trend toward smaller households. The
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average household size in the modeling area is forecast to drop from 2.64 in 2000 to 2.45
in 2035. This trend is the result of an aging population and somewhat smaller families.
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Chart 7
HOUSEHOLDS AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
90 2000 2010 2020 2035
Number of HH
2.30
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.70
Avg. HH Size
No. of HH
Hhsize
Work at Home
Forecasts of persons working at home in the NFR modeling area are summarized in
Appendix Table 9-A. An estimated 12,000 persons in the NFR area are currently
working at home. This is slightly more than 5 percent of all residents working in the
area. This percentage is higher than that for the US. The 2000 Census reported that 5.1
percent of all Colorado workers reported that the usually worked at home, almost 2
percentage points higher than the national share.
A number of factors will cause an increase in work at home. These include improved
telecommunication technology, increased congestion and travel costs, and an aging work
force less willing to tolerate the rigors of commuting. However, much of the increase
will be in the form of more workers spending one or two days a week at home rather than
spending most of their working hours there. A 2001 BLS survey reported that of the
wage and salary workers who worked at home, only 15.7 percent worked 35 hours or
more.2 The number of persons working at home is forecast to grow to 27,000 by 2035.
Of the 15,000 worker increase, approximately 4,500 of the growth is due to the assumed
increase in share of at-home workers in each industry group. The remaining portion is
due to either growth in the size of the work force or changes in industry mix.
2 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Work at Home in
2001”, USDL 02-107 March 2002
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Household Income
Household composition and income are an important element in determining household
behavior, including travel patterns. In this section, the forecasted households are
described by age, type, size and income level. A household is one or more persons living
in a dwelling unit including single people living alone, families and two or more
unrelated persons in the same home. Detailed data on the forecast mix of households in
the region are in Appendix Tables 10-A through 13-A.
The dominant pattern in the forecasts of household income is one of rising real income.
As Chart 8 below shows, real median household income increases from $47,000 in 2000
to $81,000 in 2035. In today’s (2005) dollars this would be an increase from $51,000 to
$92,000. This is an annual real income gain per household of 1.7 percent annually.
Measured in current dollars, the 2035 median household income is more than $200,000.
All of the real income gain occurs after 2005, as the economic downturn in the early
years of this decade has caused real incomes to suffer a slight decline.
Chart 8
MEDIAN H0USEHOLD INCOME-NFR MODELING
AREA
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2000 $
Current $
Income by Type of Household
Incomes vary widely by type of household. Those with only one adult, or the elderly and
the young have low incomes. In Chart 9, incomes reported by households with head of
household under 24 and 65 or over are well below the other households headed by an
individual in their prime earning years. Similarly, households with 1 adult or 1 adult with
children, mostly single mothers, have median incomes only slightly above $20,000 per
year. The households with 2 or more adults, mostly families, show median incomes in
the $50,000 to $70,000 range. (In the Chart, households labeled 2 Adult also include
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those with more than 2 adults.) The highest incomes households are for households with
two or more adult, children, and in the 45-64 age group. This also means that larger
households, on average, have higher incomes.
Chart 9
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOMES BY KIND OF HOUSEHOLD 2005
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
All HH
18-24
25-44
45-64
65 & over
1Adult
1 Adult w/ kids
2 Adults
2 Adults w/ kids
1
2
3
4
5 or more
Current $
By Age By Type By Size
Changes in Household Income Distribution
The distribution of households by income is not expected to change significantly over the
next 30 years. As Chart 10 shows, a slightly smaller proportion of households are in the
lowest income category. The highest income category shows a gain in share of
households while that in the next highest category shows a decline. The relative decline
in the low income group is largely due to smaller share of persons between 18 and 24,
which tend to be in smaller households. Chart 10 shows 2000 equivalent incomes, it
reflects distribution relative to median income and not the expected gain in overall real
income.
Chart 10
DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0-$20k $20k-
$40k
$40k-
$60k
$60k-
$80k
$80k-
$100k
Over
$100k
2000 Equivalent Income
2000
2035
Impact of Changes in Industry Mix
The impact of shifts in employment among industries tends to offset the positive effects
of changes in the age makeup of the population on income distribution. Chart 11 shows
how shifts in the mix of jobs by industry affect the distribution of wages. The share of all
jobs earning less than $20,000 per year in 2000 equivalent wages rises from 37.7 percent
of all wages to 40.2 percent. (Note: Chart 11 covers only wage income. Many of the
households with wage income also received income from other sources.) All other
categories showed a decline. The effects of this shift on overall income distribution will
be a reduction in income of households with wage earnings.
Chart 11
CHANGE IN WAGE DISTRUBTION DUE TO
INDUSTRIAL CHANGES-NFR REGION
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 60-100 100+
2000 Equiv. Wage ($ thou./year)
Pct. of all Workers
2000
2035
The reason for the shift toward lower wage jobs is the relatively rapid growth expected in
personal service industries. Such relatively high paying industries as mining,
manufacturing and transportation are forecast to generate only a small number of new
jobs. Many of the new jobs are expected in industries with below average wages such as
retail trade, accommodation and food services and administrative and waste management
services. Administrative and waste management services includes many relatively low
paying jobs in business services such as janitorial and protective services as well as
temporary service jobs. The professional, scientific and technical services sector displays
both above average earnings and a large number of new jobs. Table 3 shows average
earnings and share of new jobs in 16 NAICS “super-sectors”. The industrial group,
“Management of Companies”, is not shown because no wage data was available from the
2000 Census. It should be kept in mind that the changes in wage distribution shown here
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include only the effects of changes in the industry mix. They do not take account of any
changes in the wage structure within industries.
Table 3
2000 avg. wage
% of overall
mean
Share of new
jobs 2000-35
Agriculture -21.9% L
Mining and Utilities 60.4% L
Construction -14.2% 8.0%
Manufacturing 17.5% L
Wholesale and Retail -6.3% 8.2%
Transportation and Warehousing 20.5% 1.6%
Information 19.7% 1.7%
Finance and Insurance 28.8% 3.6%
Real Estate 28.8% 5.0%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Svc. 31.1% 18.1%
Administrative and Waste Mgt. -31.9% 15.1%
Education, Health Care and Social Assistance -7.6% 17.0%
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation -69.4% 1.8%
Accommodation and Food Services -26.6% 8.8%
Other Services -40.9% 5.6%
Government 12.0% 9.2%
"L" denotes net job loss
AVERAGE WAGE AND SHARE OF NEW JOBS
NFR MODELING AREA
Trends in Income Distribution
The household income forecasts are based on projections of households by age and type
of household and growth of various types of income such as wages, property income or
public assistance. Income of a particular type is assumed to grow at the same rate for all
households at all income levels. For example, if average property income per household
is projected to grow 2% per year, then this growth rate is applied to wage income in high-
income and low-income households alike. If a household in the $10k to $15k income
category reported to Census property income of $500, then this figure is forecast to grow
2% per year. Wage income is adjusted by changes in the industry mix of the region.
The household income forecasts did make adjustments for distributions within industry
groups and for different growth patterns for the same type of income at various income
levels. For example, property income of high income households might grow faster than
property income of low income households, but we can not estimate this outcome. The
forecasted result is projected median household income grows at close to the rate of
average personal income per household. Recent history, however, shows that median
income has grown significantly more slowly than average income per household. This
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difference is because recently higher income household experienced faster income
growth than lower income households. This change is partially a result of the region
experiencing a structural change in the occupational mix of local employees, and partial a
result of national and world patterns.
Wealthier households got richer while the poorer households lagged. This trend toward
greater income inequality has been widely noted and is generally acknowledged to have
been cause by factors such as technology, globalization, a high rate of immigration in the
US, and social/political factors such as the diminished power of labor unions.
It is uncertain whether this trend will continue into the future, either at the local or
national level. The US economy has experienced periods of growing and diminishing
inequality. Inequality increased from roughly the end of the civil war until the late
1920s. Incomes became more equal through the depression, war and post war years with
a new trend toward greater inequality become evident since the 1970s. While the most of
the factors thought to have been contributing to increase inequality are likely to continue,
social and political pressures in the other direction are becoming stronger. The forecasts
assume the continuation of the current income distribution.
Comparison with 2002 Forecast
The latest forecast is reasonably close to that prepared in 2002. Table 4 below compares
the two forecasts of total jobs and census-based population. The latest estimates of job
growth are quite close to those prepared earlier while population is somewhat higher.
The change in population can largely be explained by new estimates of age distribution
and labor force participation.
Table 4
2000 2010 2020 2030
Jobs-2002 215.2 257.5 321.2 386.0
Jobs-2005 215.5 257.6 326.0 385.9
Population-2002 378.4 441.3 546.7 666.8
Population-2005 385.3 485.5 587.6 685.4
COMPARISON OF LATEST FORECAST WITH
THAT MADE IN 2000
JOBS & POPULATION IN MODELING AREA
(Thousands)
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Forecast for Sub-regions
Historically, the communities of Fort Collins and Loveland have experienced some
economic interdependence but the extent of such interdependence has been increasing.
Local residents easily traveled back and forth for work, retail shopping, and other
commercial activities. The residents and firms of Weld County tended to focus on
Greeley as their commercial center, with the secondary market either the Fort
Collins/Loveland market or markets in the Denver metro area. However, with a higher
degree of residential and commercial development in both Larimer and Weld Counties,
the economic and social relationships between for Weld County residents and the firms
and the growing market places of Fort Collins and Loveland have increased.
Economic Centers and Sub-regional Analysis
A map showing the boundaries of the sub-regions is on page 2 of this report. Within the
North Front Range region, three specific economic centers have emerged. Each of these
economic centers has unique drivers of economic and demographic growth. Specifically,
the areas are Greeley, Fort Collins, and Loveland. While each of these economic centers
is led by a central community, the economic, housing, and social interactions reach
beyond the community’s political boundaries. As an example, each of these economic
centers draws workers from surrounding residential areas.
Each economic center is in a different phase of its development, with the Loveland center
currently experiencing significant retail and commercial development activity. It should
be anticipated that each of the centers will follow its own independent growth path. The
most mature economic center is the Fort Collins area, with about 100,000 total jobs today
(45.6% of regional total). This area is expected to be home to about 135,000 jobs in 2035
(32.6% of the regional total). The forecast job growth rate for Fort Collins of about 1% a
year is significantly lower than the regional growth rate of almost 2% in the region as a
whole.
The region could easily have been divided into three sub-regions, due to the strong
economic pull from the three economic centers. However a fourth area, lying outside the
three economic centers, was also designated. In the fourth area, designated as “NFR
Surrounding Area”, residents are drawn to two or more of the economic centers or, in
some cases, economic centers in the Denver metro area for work, shopping and other
activities. This area should not be considered a “bedroom community” with the region,
as it will be home to over 80,000 jobs in 2035 (twice the number of total current jobs in
the Loveland economic center). These communities will likely experience the fastest
growth rates, both residential and commercial, in the future. Further, residents will likely
choose these communities due to the relative proximity and access to several different
economic areas.
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Residents of the region currently commute between all the communities in the region,
due in part to the close physical proximity of the economic centers (especially Fort
Collins and Loveland). This reality emphasizes the consideration of the area as a single
region, made up with several economic centers. This study examined and forecasted
economic and demographic outcomes for the region and sub-regions of the NFR
modeling area.
Economic and Demographic Factors Affecting Growth
Each of these economic centers have different factors affecting growth, both due to the
types of firms within the community and the underlying community factors which drew
the firms to these communities originally. In developing the sub-regional forecasts, three
primary elements are considered: existing and historic commuting patterns, growth
patterns (for both population and employment), and current community and development
plans and insights. These factors are described in greater detail below. The application
of these factors in the models is described in the Methodology section of this report.
Commuting
In the case of a sub-regional forecast, the opportunity for strong inter-regional
commuting is an important component. A growing number of households are made up of
individuals working in different parts of the region. Thus it is very likely that a
household would be located near Loveland with two adults. One of the adults may work
in Fort Collins at CSU or one of the firms in the community and the spouse may be
commuting to Greeley to work at the hospital. The City of Loveland, along with several
smaller communities within the region, will likely have residential development beyond
housing needed for employers, due to ease of commuting from Loveland to major
employment areas.
The economic communities (a larger area than the specific political boundary) of Ft.
Collins and Greeley are surprisingly self-contained. In Ft. Collins, over 80% of the
working residents are employed in Ft. Collins – with another 7.5% traveling only to
Loveland on a daily basis for work. While Greeley’s percentages are only slightly
smaller, both communities are well above other places of equal size along the Front
Range.
It is quite unlikely that these travel patterns will be maintained. As the NFR communities
(and those of the Denver metro area) continue to grow, additional inter-commuting is
very likely to occur. Yet, limiting commuting is considered desirable. A number of
communities around the country are trying to initiate programs and development to
increase the share of residents working in their own community and encourage local
firms to hire local residents.
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Development Patterns
A second primary factor in understanding specific development is the historical growth
pattern, e.g. the existing shares of development in the sub-regions. Growth rates within
the NFR communities are varied and changing as the communities evolve. Several
communities are quickly changing from a crossroads hamlet into a settlement of several
to tens of thousands in a matter of a few years. At the same time, Greeley continues to
grow and sustain its local economy – tending to grow at a steady rate. Three of the four
sub-regions have a central economic place in the region, with the fourth being relatively
equally affected by two or all three of the economic centers.
As has been discussed in the regional forecasting portion of this project, community
growth and development is often led by the creation and expansion of the local
employment market. This market is driven by firms “exporting” to other locations in
Colorado, the US or the world. For example, the University of Northern Colorado
attracts students from around Colorado and beyond. These students pay tuition and buy
other services and goods. The dollars pay salaries, taxes, and purchase other goods and
services. These “imported” dollars help sustain and drive the economy.
Local Plans and Insights
A third factor that needs to be considered in assessing growth in a given areas is the
eventual build-out of that area. Owners and local governments have a vested interest in
the level and type of development in a given area. Specifically knowing the eventual (or
hoped for) level of development allows for a better understanding of potential
development outcomes. Generally, few parcels/areas ever develop to the approved
density or quite the way the owner wishes. Within a region, just as one parcel or area is
nearing “term” development, the market prices the remaining land at a high rate. This
provides a signal for the developer to consider other alternatives. The end result is the
last parcels reach a price that prevents economic profit on the land. This leaves random
undeveloped parcels throughout a given area of development. These parcels can get
developed, eventually in a very piecemeal approach. However, in any given area, some
portion of the land is never developed.
At the same time, changing economic and demographic conditions alter the use of
existing business and residential areas. While the visible manifestation is physical
rehabbing and redevelopment, these physical changes follow a previous switch in use or
activity level. An example of this neighborhood evolution is the Denver’s LoDo and
Ballpark neighborhoods. Both of these areas were historic manufacturing and
warehousing areas, but, in recent years, significant redevelopment has occurred as these
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neighborhoods focused on residential, retail and restaurant, and office activities. A closer
examination showed that many of these residents and firms had been in the
neighborhoods for a number of years, while they were building up capital or a record of
success to obtain a loan allowing them to purchase and rehab their space or a similar
space in the neighborhood.
The community planning and resident/firm driven approaches intersect to establish future
development patterns and associated growth. As part of the normal regional modeling
efforts of the NFR modeling area, information on both community plans leading to build-
out information and current activity is collected from local sources, compared to previous
plans and data, and incorporated in the final modeling effort. For this project, the most
recent information collected and reviewed for the NFR MPO modeling efforts was used
to inform the sub-regional model of the potential development with the area. However,
this information was augmented by discussion in two task force meetings and a simple
survey of local planners and analysts.
Sub-regional Forecasting Results
The results of the sub-regional forecasts are included in Appendix Tables 14_A and 15-
A. It should be noted that these forecasts are based on the best available data. Actual
development will likely differ from the forecast, both on a spatial and temporal level. In
addtion, upon completion of the entire regional modeling effort, the results will likely be
used by local and regional leaders to make policy and program decisions which will alter
the development patterns within the region and the local communities. Thus the results
presented below should be use carefully considered and used.
Employment
Employment within the region is expected to grow by roughly 190,000 during the next
thirty years, an overall growth of 84.5% over existing levels (or over 2.0% a year). As
would be expected, this growth will be uneven across the region. Table 5 shows total
employment growth for the sub-regions between 2005 and 2035.
Table 5
Sub-region Total Employment Annual Growth
Growth Rate
Greeley Area 57,700 2.3%
Fort Collins Area 32,600 0.9%
Loveland Area 38,800 2.4%
Surrounding Areas 58,000 4.2%
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Employment includes sole proprietors, non-covered jobs, and traditional wage and salary
employment. It is hypothesized that both sole proprietorship and multiple job holding
will increase over the forecast period. The industrial mix of jobs in each sub-region is
expected to change. As an example, in Fort Collins the share of retail and production
jobs (manufacturing, construction, and other similar industries) is expected to fall. In
fact, production jobs are expected to decline by about 3,500 jobs over the forecast.
In both Greeley and Loveland, production jobs will be a smaller share of total jobs – but
will increase absolutely. Retail jobs will increase in both cases, in Loveland at a slightly
slower rate compared to total job growth. While in Greeley, retail jobs will grow at a
similar rate as overall job growth.
Within the surrounding areas, job growth in all sectors will grow significantly. The
fastest growing sector will be in service jobs (personal, business and professional
services) at annual growth rate above 5%. The slower growing employment category
will be production, with an annual growth rate of 3%. Many of the new production jobs
are accounted for by the construction activity within this part of the region.
Households
To most people the obvious sign of growth and development within a community is the
increase of housing, and the resulting households and population filling those homes.
The region is expected to outpace Colorado’s residential growth. During the forecast
period, 2005-2035, the region is expected to increase by almost 125,000 households.
This growth represents another 53% of the total current households, or more than the
number of households currently in the communities of Greeley and Fort Collins
combined.
Due to differences in local development plans and patterns, this growth varies by sub-
region. Household growth in the sub-regions is shown in Table 6. As can be seen from
the table, the greatest and fastest growth of housing will occur in the surrounding areas
with the region. The Fort Collins Area will have the slowest growth rate, but still
outpacing the U.S. residential growth rate.
Table 6
Sub-region Total Household Annual Growth
Growth Rate
Greeley Area 37,300 2.2%
Fort Collins Area 24,000 1.1%
Loveland Area 22,800 1.9%
Surrounding Areas 38,600 2.6%
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The average size of the households will shrink within the region. (This outcome may not
coincide with any change in the size of housing unit.) The greatest change in household
size will occur in the Greeley area and the surrounding NFR areas. Within the Loveland
area, the average household size will remain stable – and still be the smallest within the
region. This result suggests the greatest growth of the senior population will likely occur
in Loveland and Greeley. These areas have lower housing prices than Fort Collins and
substantial development of health care/hospital facilities is planned in Loveland.
Combined Residential and Employment Growth
As discussed above, each sub-region has varied growth patterns for residential versus
employment growth. The number of jobs per household is expected to rise over the
forecast period. Today’s rate is nearly 1.4 jobs per household, and it will rise by about
5% to the year 2035. Combined with the increasing share of senior population, the net
(working) household income levels will outpace income growth in comparable areas.
Further, a simple analysis would indicate that the collective wealth levels will increase
within the region, likely impacting comparative housing prices. Changes in job/housing
ratios within the sub-regions, shown in Table 7, suggest some of the variations within the
region.
Table 7
Sub-region 2005 2035 Change
Job/Housing Job/Housing in Ratio
Greeley Area 1.51 1.53 1.3%
Fort Collins Area 1.62 1.54 (4.9%)
Loveland Area 1.33 1.50 12.8%
Surrounding Areas 0.71 1.14 60.1%
Region 1.36 1.43 5.1%
The Fort Collins and Greeley Areas will continue to have the most jobs and other
economic activity within the region, but the Loveland’s share will increase. The “NFR
surrounding areas” will continue to provide workers for firms in the other three sub-
regions but at a diminished rate, due to the employment development in the currently
non-urbanized areas of the region and the residential development within the currently
urbanized areas. Even with the relative increase in senior population, the region will
increase the number of jobs per household. Also, firms will need to continue to be
adaptive in employment practices to meet their continued need of workers. These
practices will include allowing multiple job-holding among their workers, flexible work
hours/days, teleworking, and use of part-time workers.
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Summary: Sub-regional forecasts
The sub-regional forecast outcomes suggest that each of the sub-regions will post positive
growth over the next 30 years. Growth patterns will vary by sub-region, with the Fort
Collins area experiencing the slowest residential and employment growth. The non-
urban areas within the region are forecasted to have the strongest residential and
employment growth, with employment development outpacing the change in residential
activity.
Loveland and Greeley will have similar growth rates over the period of the forecast. As
Loveland is currently experience a significant growth period, it can be expected that
Greeley should see a similar surge in the future.
In general, three of the sub-regions of the NFR region will experience faster growth than
the state as a whole – and 3 to 8 times the rate of growth for the nation as a whole. These
areas are likely to be on the lists of fastest growing areas in the U.S. for years to come.
In considering these forecasts, public and private service and utility providers will be
faced with difficult decisions devising strategies to meet current and expected demands
for infrastructure, services and programs. Careful consideration of the forecasts, at the
region, sub-region, and TAZ level will provide these decision makers some insights and
understanding – but the decisions will still be difficult.
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METHODOLOGY-REGIONAL FORECASTS
Overview
The outlook for the region’s economy drives the forecast of jobs and population for the
North Front Range Modeling Area. It balances the demand for labor and the supply of
workers. First, labor demand was forecast. It is largely determined by projected job
growth, which, in turn, results from new jobs in the region’s basic industries. Basic
industries are those dependent on exports, or outside dollars flowing into the region.
Initial demand projections were prepared for the region; then the population needed to fill
these jobs was forecast. Job demand along with the region’s age and gender makeup and
trends in labor force participation were the critical elements in this calculation. Estimates
of the number of households in several income groups were developed from the forecasts
of job and income growth and of changes in the area population. These steps are
described in greater detail below.
Job Demand
Job Concept and Data Sources
Job demand forecasts were prepared for the region through the year 2035. The job
measure covered all jobs located in the modeling area, including civilian nonfarm wage
and salary jobs, uniformed military, farm jobs, household jobs and self-employed
proprietors. It includes all positions both full-time and part-time. The job estimates used
here were developed by the Colorado Division of Local Government (CDLG). The
CDLG estimates use the US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) wage and salary job figures. In addition, an estimate of self-employed is prepared
by CDLG based on proprietors’ income and average earnings. The CDLG job series is
available for all counties covering 70 industry groups through 2003. Estimates were
updated to 2005 based on the Department of Labor’s Quarterly Census of Employment
and Wages. (QCEW, formerly the ES202 report) The jobs measure used here differs from
those reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) or the BEA. The BLS reports
covered payroll jobs, which include only civilian nonfarm wage and salary employees,
and civilian employment. Civilian employment covers all civilian workers but is based
on place of residence rather than place of work. The civilian employment measure also
differs from the job estimates in that it counts a person holding more than one job only
once. The BEA estimates are identical to those used here for wage and salary
employment but include a much broader measure of jobs held by the self employed.
Estimates of jobs and personal income are available at the county level. To obtain base
year estimates for the NFR modeling area it was necessary to adjust these figures. The
job figures were adjusted based on 1st quarter 2005 QCEW data for the two counties and
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the modeling area. These adjustments were made at industry level for the 70 industry
groups estimated by CDLG. Personal income estimates were adjusted based on the
modeling areas share of jobs and population.
State and National Economic Forecasts
Future growth in the modeling area depends on US and Colorado economic conditions
over the forecast period. A Colorado economic forecast through 2035 was prepared by
the Center for Business and Economic Forecasting. The forecast were developed using
CBEF’s Colorado economic model. The long-term US forecast used here was prepared
by a national economic forecasting and research firm. The Colorado forecast reflects
economic conditions through early 2005 for most variables.
Job Demand Forecasts
The regional forecast is driven by growth in direct basic jobs, i.e. those jobs generated by
outside dollars flowing into region. Basic jobs include manufacturing and military as
well as jobs generated by spending of tourists, retirees and resident commuters. Jobs
generated by retiree and resident commuter spending, along with those due to the
expenditures of public-assistance and property income are categorized as due to
“household spending” and are the direct jobs resulting from such spending. Medical-care
jobs generated by retiree spending are an example of such jobs.3 Regional estimates of
basic jobs in 70 industries and 4 household spending categories were prepared for the
year 2003 by CDLG. The modeling area forecast of basic jobs by industry was based on
historical relationships with state job growth in the corresponding industry. These results
were then adjusted when appropriate. The historical data necessary for these estimates
were prepared using the 2003 ratio of basic jobs to total jobs for the county. Jobs due to
household spending were estimated separately. Forecast jobs in the retiree category
were based on projections of the elderly population. Those due to spending of property
income and public assistance payments were based on growth in these income streams.
The commuter category was estimated from projected growth in the commuting
population.
New basic jobs generate additional jobs in the region. These are indirect and induced
jobs, i.e. jobs from suppliers to basic industries or those caused by spending of workers in
basic industries respectively. These are referred to in this analysis as “non-basic resident
service jobs”. These jobs generated by the direct basic jobs in 70 industries were
estimated using Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS) prepared by the US
Department of Commerce covering Weld and Larimer Counties. The multipliers are
estimates of the total number of jobs in the Region for each basic job in a given industry.
For example, each new job in machinery manufacturing in the region will mean an
3 Jobs due to household spending were not allocated by industry. This means that any medical service
basic jobs in the household category would be in addition to other basic medical service jobs.
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additional 1.25 jobs in other sectors. (The multiplier for this industry is 2.25.)
Multipliers for jobs due to household spending were based on assessments of spending
patterns. For example, since retirees spend a significant portion of their budgets on
medical care, the multiplier for medical services was weighted heavily in determining the
retiree multiplier. Multipliers used for the various industries are shown in Table 8 below.
Table 8
Gcode Industry Description Multiplier Gcode Industry Description Multiplier
1010 Crops and livestock production 2.241 8060 Pipeline transportation 1.608
1020 Farm services 2.241 8070 Scenic, sightseeing, and water transportation 1.608
2010 Oil and gas extraction 3.983 8080 Couriers and messengers and postal service assista 1.608
2020 M ining (except oil and gas) 2.310 8090 Warehousing and storage 1.496
2030 Support Activities for mining 2.288 9010 Publishing industries 2.160
3030 Utilities 2.777 9030 M otion picture and broadcasting, except internet 1.547
4010 Construction of buildings 1.932 9041 Internet publishing 2.432
4020 Heavy and cilvil engineering construction 1.932 9042 Other Telecommunications 2.432
4030 Special trade contractors 1.932 9050 ISPs, search portals, and data processing 2.432
5010 Wood product and furniture manufacturing 1.633 10010 M onetary authorities and credit intermediation, ex 1.944
5020 Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing 2.692 10020 Securities, commodity contracts and investments 1.709
5030 Primary and fabricated metal manufacturing 3.203 10100 Insurance carriers, funds, trusts, and other relat 2.091
5040 M achinery manufacturing 2.253 10200 Real estate 2.509
5050 Computer and electrical equipment manufacturing 3.664 11020 Professional and technical services 1.863
5060 M otor vehicle and transportation manufacturing 2.241 11030 M anagement of companies and enterprises 1.872
5070 M iscellaneous manufacturing 1.853 11090 Administrative and support services 1.366
5080 Food and beverage product manufacturing 5.529 11100 Waste management and remediation services 2.505
5090 Textile mills and product, apparel, and leather ma 1.649 12010 Private Educational services 1.344
5100 Paper and printing manufacturing 1.696 12020 Ambulatory health care services 1.670
5110 Chemical manufacturing 2.683 12030 Hospitals 1.538
5120 Plastics and rubber products manufacturing 1.981 12040 Nursing and residential care facilities 1.538
6010 Wholesale 1.987 12050 Social assistance 1.236
7010 M otor vehicle and parts dealers 1.424 13010 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 1.360
7020 Furniture, electronics, appliances, and building m 1.424 13020 Accommodation 1.372
7030 Food and beverage stores 1.424 13030 Food services and drinking places 1.231
7040 Health and personal care stores 1.424 14010 Automotive and other repair and maintenance 1.462
7050 Gasoline stations 1.424 14020 Personal and laundry services 1.462
7060 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 1.424 14030 M embership associations and organizations 1.462
7070 Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores 1.424 14040 Private households 1.203
7080 General merchandise stores 1.424 15010 Federal government, civilian 1.647
7090 M iscellaneous store retailers 1.424 15014 M ilitary 1.391
7100 Nonstore retailers 1.424 15020 State Government 1.372
8010 Air transportation 2.970 15030 Local Government 1.372
8020 Rail transportation 2.576
8030 Truck transportation 2.093
8040 Support for transportation 1.608 Commuters 1.338
8050 Transit and ground passenger transportation 1.275 Federal payments to hhds <65 1.541
Dividends, interest and rent to <65 hhds 1.744
Households over 65, retirees 1.676
Employment Multipliers for Direct Basic Jobs
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The change in total jobs for a given period is equal to the change in basic jobs for all
industry plus the sum of indirect and induced jobs generated by basic jobs in each
industry. This is summarized in the formula below.
ΔΕ=Σj ( Μj x ΔΒj )
Where:
ΔΕ is the change in total employment
Μj is the multiplier for industry j
ΔΒj is the change in basic employment in industry j
Matching Supply and Demand Forecasts
Labor supply and demand forecasts were prepared using CBEF’s model which generates
consistent forecasts for all of Colorado’s regions based on the state forecast. For the NFR
forecast, this model was modified by shifting economic activity in Larimer and Weld
Counties but outside the modeling area from Region 2 (Larimer and Weld Counties) to
Region 3 (Metro Denver). Estimates for various economic and demographic variables
needed to be adjusted to account for this change.
Table 9 displays the calculation of labor supply and demand. The top several items,
opposite the downward pointing arrow, show the calculation of demand. Total Jobs, or is
the sum of Industrial Basic Jobs, Household Basic Jobs and Non-basic Resident Service
Jobs. Military Jobs are deducted from Total Jobs in order to arrive at Civilian Jobs or
total labor demand expressed in number of jobs needed to be filled by nonmilitary
persons.
Census Population, the bottom item in Table 9, was estimated from 2000 Census data.
Growth in through the forecast was computed to bring labor supply and demand into
balance. Estimated Undercount is the number of persons not counted in the Census.4
This figure was estimated by the CDLG and remained a constant percentage of total
population through the forecast period. Adjusted Population is total population,
including undercount, in the modeling area.
4 The undercount estimates do not incorporate recent Census estimates of the undercount as these are not
available at the County level.
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Table 9
Labor
Demand TOTAL INDUSTRIAL BASIC JOBS
+ TOTAL HOUSEHOLD BASIC JOBS
= TOTAL BASIC JOBS
+ NON-BASIC RESIDENT SV. JOBS
= TOTAL JOBS
- MILITARY JOBS
= CIVILIAN JOBS (DEMAND)
STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY
= CIVILIAN JOBS HELD (SUPPLY)
+ COMMUTING (+ = IN)
= JOBS HELD BY RESIDENTS
+ JOBS MULTIPLY HELD
= EMPLOYED PERSONS (RESIDENTS)
- UNEMPLOYED PERSONS
= LABOR FORCE (RESIDENTS)
X LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE
= CIVILIAN ADULT NON-INSTITUTIONAL POPULATION
X ADULT SHARE OF POPULATION
= TRUE POPULATION
+ POPULATION UNDERCOUNT
Labor POPULATION - CENSUS BASED
Supply
ELEMENTS IN LABOR DEMAND AND SUPPLY
The relationship between population and jobs supplied by residents depends on several
key parameters. These parameters result from demographic, economic and behavioral
patterns. The Adult Share of Population, or the number of potential labor force
participants, largely depends on the age distribution of the population. Current estimates
and forecast of this proportion were prepared by the CDLG. Civilian Adult Non-
institutional Population is the number of persons 16 and over not in the military or
institutions. Another critical parameter is the Labor Force Participation Rate or the
proportion of the civilian adult population either working or looking for work.
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Participation rates were estimated for various age/gender groups, e.g. women 18-24, and
then applied to projected population in these groups to compute the overall participation
rate. Participation rates were assumed to remain near present levels for younger workers
and to increase somewhat for older ones, particularly for women. The overall labor force
participation rate declines somewhat over the next 30 years as the population ages. The
civilian Labor Force (Residents) is equal to the overall participation rate times the
civilian adult population. Unemployed Persons are in the labor force but not holding
jobs. The unemployment Rate was estimated based on forecast trends in the state
unemployment rate. Employed Persons equals civilian labor force less unemployed
persons. Some of workers will hold more than one job, thus increasing the number of
jobs filled by residents. Jobs Multiply Held measure the number of such jobs held by
persons already holding another job and is equal to the multiple-job-holding rate times
the labor force. The multiple-job-holding rate in the modeling area was assumed to be
higher than the state or national rate and was held constant through the forecast period.
Jobs Held by Residents is the estimated number of workers supplied from the resident
population. Workers commuting into the area will add to the labor supply. Net
Commuting is estimated as the residual, reflecting the difference between jobs held by
residents and the total number of jobs held. The Statistical Discrepancy is a measure of
the fact that in the base year supply, including commuting estimated from the Census,
does not precisely match demand. The statistical discrepancy is held constant over the
forecast.
Commuting Patterns
Forecast changes in commuting patterns after 2000 were determined by job and labor
force growth. The estimate of net commuting in 2000 was based on 2000 Census
information. The 2000 Census reported net commuting out of Larimer and Weld
Counties of almost 22,600 persons, the bulk of them commuting into Metro Denver. This
was almost 10,000 more net commuters than had been reported 10 years earlier.
Estimates of jobs and population in areas outside the NFR modeling area and calculations
similar to those in Table 4-A resulted in an estimate of net commuting out of the
modeling area of 17,578.
Jobs by Major Industry Group
Jobs were estimated for 17 NAICS categories. Industrial direct basic jobs were estimated
for 70 industry categories as described above. The industrial distribution of household
basic jobs and non-basic resident service jobs in the modeling area was estimated based
on changes in these jobs at the state level.
Jobs covered by unemployment insurance and reported in the quarterly QCEW report
were estimated by calculating the share of QCEW jobs in each industry in 2005, the latest
year for which QCEW data were available. These shares were then assumed to remain
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unchanged through the forecast period. The proportion of wage and salary jobs in each
industry was projected through the forecast period based on changes in the share of wage
and salary jobs in each industry at the state level.
Work at Home
The number of persons working at home was estimated based on Colorado data from the
2000 Census. These were persons who responded to the question, "How did you usually
get to work LAST WEEK?" "Worked at home" is defined to mean the most number of
days during the week (or generally 3 out 5 days). The ratios of persons so reporting in
each industry to total jobs in those industries were calculated for the Census year of 2000.
These ratios were then applied to forecast employment by industry to determine the
number of persons working at home in the NFR modeling area. This is an estimate of
persons working at home rather than at job locations.
After 2000, the ratio of at home workers to jobs in each industry was assumed to grow at
.03 percentage points per year. This was based on national trends reported in the Census
for 1980 through 2000 shown in Table 10 below.
Table 10
Share of US Workers Reporting
Working at Home
Year Percent of Workers Who
Reported Working at Home
1980 2.3%
1990 3.0%
2000 3.3%
Source: US Census
Over the 20 year period, the share of at-home workers increased at the rate of five one-
hundredths of a percentage point per year. A portion of that change was cause by shifts
in the industry mix toward the service occupations with a greater share of person working
at home. Over the decade of the 90s, the change was three one-hundredths of a percent
per year, the rate of increase used in the forecast.
Personal Income Estimates
Personal income was forecast by major component such as wages and salaries or transfer
payments. Each component was forecast based on growth in the same component at the
state level and relative regional and state growth in the population group that affects that
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income component. For example, wage and salary growth depends on state wage and
salary growth and the difference between state and regional employment growth.
Population and Household Estimates
The population distribution by age within the modeling area was derived from estimates
and projections by county prepared by the CDLG. It was assumed that population
patterns in southern Weld County were similar to those in Adams County, patterns in
western Larimer County followed the patterns in Grand County, and those in eastern
areas of both counties reflected trends in Logan County. Civilian population as a share of
total population, labor force participation rates and household formation rates for the
modeling area were re-estimated based on these population forecasts.
Household Distribution by Income
The CBEF household income model forecasts the number of households in each of
several income classes for four household types (more than one adult with children, more
than one adult with no children, one adult with children and one adult with no children),
four age groups (householder age 18-24, 25-44, 45-64, or 65 and over) and five sizes (1,
2, 3, 4 and 5 or more persons) for the NFR modeling area. The estimates cover the years
2000 through 2035 and are consistent with the NFR economic and demographic
forecasts.
Household income distribution was forecast for two sets of income categories. The first
set is based on real income intervals in 2000 dollars using $20,000 intervals up to
$100,000. For example, the lowest income category in 2035 would be households
earning less than $49,000 which would be equivalent to $20,000 in 2000 based on the
Metro Denver CPIU. The second set of income categories, “2000 equivalents”, is based
on the relationship to median income. For example, an income of $20,000 in 2000
roughly 44 percent of $46,000, that year’s median income from all households in the
region. In 2035 the lowest income category extends to $86,000 measured in current
dollars and $35,000 in 2000 dollars. These figures are 44 percent of 2035’s median
income. CBEF’s model projects household income distribution using Census income
intervals which are narrower than the final estimates prepared here. For example, Census
reports income at $5,000 intervals up to $50,000. The estimates for the Census intervals
were combined to achieve the results shown here. Appendix Table 11-A shows the 2000
equivalent income intervals in 2000 dollars and in current dollars.
The CBEF household income model updates 2000 Census estimates based on the most
recent statistics and forecasts. Estimates of household distribution by income are
available for 1999 from a sample of 2000 Census respondents. Subsequent changes in
income distribution can be explained by changes in household type, e.g. more aged or
single parent households, and changes in real income. Income growth affects different
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groups of households in different ways that in turn affect the distribution of income by
household.
Definitions
Income is that reported on the 2000 Census, which covers income received in 1999.
Future years’ income figures represent updates of the income estimated by the Census.
The Census income concept includes wages, self-employment income, interest, social
security income, supplemental social security, public assistance, retirement income and
other income. Capital gains or proceeds for sales of property are not included as income.
Census reports before-tax income and does not include the earned income tax credit.
Income figures for all years are in current dollars; no adjustment is made for price
inflation.
Households are groups of one or more persons occupying a housing unit. A household
may be a single family, one person living alone, a family, or two or more unrelated
persons living together. Persons not in households are in group-quarters, which include
prisons, school dormitories, nursing homes or military barracks. No estimates of group-
quarters income were prepared.
Base Year Estimates
The estimates of 1999 households by income class for all combinations of household
type, age group, tenure and region were obtained from the Public Use Microdata Sample
(PUMS) from the 2000 Census. This sample represents approximately 5% of all Census
respondents. In Colorado estimates are available for 9 areas within the state including
Larimer and Weld Counties. The distribution of households by income for Larimer and
Weld Counties for each age/type group was used for the NFR area.
Household Estimates and Projections
The Demography section of the Colorado Division of Local Government (CDLG)
prepared estimates of households by type and age for the years 1990 through 2030 at the
County level. The household estimates were based on the population estimates prepared
by the Demography section. They cover population by age for each year. The section’s
estimates begin with the 1990 and 2000 Census estimates, with estimates through 2004
based on information on income tax filings, school enrollments and other indicators.
Projections beyond 2004 were developed using projected fertility and mortality rates and
forecasts of migration based on job growth and other factors.
The estimates of households were prepared in two stages. First, household population
was computed as the difference between total population and group quarters population.
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Then the number of households was derived by applying rates or proportions of
householders (heads of households) for each household type to the total household
population in each age-gender group. The household estimates were adjusted to make
them consistent with 2000 Census estimates of households by county and type of
household. These County figures were then adjusted to the NFR modeling area in a
manner similar to that used for population estimates and the distribution of households by
age and type was extrapolated through 2035.
The result of the above-described process was a set of estimates of the number of
households by type and age group. The base year estimates, described above, were then
used to distribute households by income class within each age/type “cell” for every fifth
year from 2000 to 2035. This initial set of estimates covered the number of households
in each age/type/tenure/income cell but did not adjust for income change after 1999.
Average Income Estimates and Projections
The next step was computing the change in average real income within each of the
age/type/income cells. Average income from each source was calculated using the base
year (1999) profile. Average income estimates were updated based on personal income
estimates and forecasts for the area. BEA personal income differs somewhat in concept
from that reported in the Census. For example, BEA rental income includes rent imputed
to homeowners. The Census income categories and the corresponding BEA income
categories used to update average household income are shown in Table 11 below.
Annual changes in average income were calculated for each income type for each
age/type/income class cell. The annual change in average household income was
computed based on the changes in per-household income in each income category for
that region. The per-household change in BEA income for each income type was then
applied to the average income of that type in each cell.
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Table 11
Income Categories Used in Projections
Census Income Category Personal Income Component used for
Projection
Wages and Salary Wages & Salary + Residence Adjustment
with adjustment for changes in
industry/household mix
Self Employment Income Proprietors Income
Interest Property Income
Social Security Transfer Payments
Supplemental Social
Security & Public
Assistance
Transfer Payments
Retirement Income Property Income
Other Income Total Personal Income
Wage Income Adjustment for Changes in Industry Mix and Population Makeup
Wage and salary earnings make up by far the largest component income, accounting for
more than three-fourths of income reported in the 2000 Census. As such, it warrants a
more refined treatment than other income components. Changes in wage income will be
determined by changes on both the supply and demand side of the labor market. On the
demand side, growth or declines in industries will mean more or fewer high wage or low
wage jobs. For example, mining jobs increasing while agricultural jobs decline will
mean more higher paying jobs and fewer lower paying ones. Similarly, changes in the
labor force will cause shifts as some demographic groups typically receive higher wages
than others. For example, workers in the 25-44 age group receive, on average, higher pay
than the average pay of either those under 25 or over 65.
The household income model estimates shifts in earnings due to changes in the industry
mix and/or the age mix of the population. The model projects the overall distribution of
wages based on industrial changes. Then a similar projection of wage distribution is
calculated based on projected changes in the makeup of households by age and type.
Adjustments are then made in the distribution of household wages to bring it into balance
with the wages corresponding to the industry mix. For example, with no changes
elsewhere, more jobs in the $20,000 to $30,000 per year category and fewer jobs in the
$30,000 to $40,000 group will mean slower average growth among higher income
households. Some of the workers in the higher income households will hold lower
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paying jobs. In the household income model this effect is captured through adjusting
average wage growth at different wage levels up or down. The growth factor applied to
wage and salary income is a combination of forecast average wage and salary income per
household and the adjustment factor for changes in industry and household mix.
Calculation of households by income class
As described earlier, average household income and the number of households in each
age\type\income cell were projected through 2035. The initial projections were based on
income levels reported in the 2000 Census. For example, the number of single person
households 65 or over in the $20,000 to $25,000 income class was based on 2000
incomes in that group. In order to estimate the 2005 distribution it was necessary to
calculate the number of households in the $20,000 to $25,000 class based on 2005
incomes. Some or all of the households in the $20,000 to $25,000 class based on 2000
income levels will be in higher income classes based on 2005 incomes. Table 12 below
shows a hypothetical calculation of this type.
The first step in estimating the distributions of households expressed in terms of current
income was to re-estimate the income ranges. The new income ranges were calculated
based on growth in mean real incomes in each cell. Average real income in this class
grew 7 percent between 2000 and 2005 so $20,000 to $25,000 class on a 1999 base
would correspond to $21,400 to $26,750 on 2000 base.
Then it was necessary to estimate the number of households based on the new income
classes. For this calculation it was assumed that households within the income classes
were evenly distributed by income. In this example described above, the households in
the $20-25,000 class in 2000 were, in 2005, distributed evenly between $21,400 and
$26,750. The proportion of households in the $20,000 to $25,000 class would then be
$25,000 minus $21,400 (the part of the income range in that class) divided by $26,750-
$21,400 (the size of the entire income range). The rest of the households would shift into
the $25-30,000 class. The process described was applied to all income/age/household
type cells for all years.
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Table 12
Sample Calculation of Households by Income Class
Income Class Based From $20,000
on 2000 Income To $25,000
# of HH in 2000 3,600
Income Class Based From $21,400
on 2005 Income To $26,750
# of HH in 2005 3,700
Calcuation of HH by Income Class in 2005
$20k to $25k 3700*($25,000-$21,400)/($26,750-$21,400) 2,490
$25k to $30k 3700*($26,750-$25,000)/($26,750-$21,400) 1,210
METHODOLOGY-SUB-REGIONAL FORECASTS
Data and Information Requirements
One of the critical issues for this project was to identify and obtain data on the sub-
regions. When these sub-regions were identified in the fall of 2005, it was obvious that
data by this specific geography was generally not available. Recognizing these data
limitations, three approaches were used to develop an understanding of the sub-regions.
The first was identification of the similar geographic areas with available data, in this
case, central places in each economic area. The second approach used existing small area
data sources (census tracts, TAZ, and other smaller geographies) to build a rough
approximation of the sub-region. Significant amounts of data was available for these
smaller areas, although most of it is for the year 2000. Finally, gaps in estimates from the
first two approaches were filled with the best available information.
Efforts were made more difficult by a lack of current data, especially in areas undergoing
rapid change. In addition, consistent time series data was difficult to obtain. These
obstacles required knitting several pieces of data together to obtain a picture of growth
trends.
The primary data source for the project was the U.S. Census Bureau and the Colorado
Departments of Labor and Employment and Local Affairs. Data from these sources was
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not generally detailed enough to use directly for the sub-regional modeling and was
supplemented with other available data at the appropriate geography. Analysis were
complicated with annexation and methodological changes in estimations and measures.
The data obtained through synthesizing the above methods allowed for preliminary
analysis and estimation of growth rates for key variables in each of the sub-regions. Two
primary questions were addressed. The first was to understand the portion of the growth
curve for a given area. That is, are we at the beginning, the middle, or the end of growth
in a given area? Second, what were the “starting” and “build out” development levels?
After these questions were addressed the area’s growth curve could be estimated.
Sub-regional forecasting approach
Areas within the economic region develop both in a joint pattern (cooperatively) and
independently (competitively) due to physical conditions, rules and plans managing
growth in each area. Understanding how the region is developing, and the share of
growth that occurred in a given area (compared to the whole), provides insight into this
cooperative/competitive marketplace.
The sub regional model approach is linked to the regional modeling effort. For this
project, forecasts for the entire the region were based on results of a model using national
and state forecasts to produce regional forecasts. The underlying approach (more fully
discussed elsewhere) was to forecast employment, and then produce related demographic
outcomes.
The small area modeling effort focused on the distribution of the regionally forecasted
employment and households into small neighborhood areas. These areas are referred to
as traffic/transportation analysis zones (TAZ). The current NFR MPO Socioeconomic
Model is a second-generation version of the community decision support model,
CommunityViz. This model distributes these activities into TAZs based on local plans,
community and neighborhood characteristics, and existing activity uses and levels.
While the neighborhoods areas share some common factors affecting growth, the regional
influences often are overshadowed by sub-region and neighborhood characteristics. At
the same time, characteristics of local and regional economies prevent development from
occurring in geographical isolation. The proximity to similar or tradable services and
goods could prevent the development of stores and businesses within a specific
neighborhood. As an example, if a supermarket is a half–mile away, the demand for an
additional supermarket within the localized market is quite low.
The sub-regional forecasts require recognition of the independence and joint conditions
within the marketplace, and how this affects localized development and growth. The
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following provides a general overview of the methodology used in the sub-regional
modeling.
Models
The TAZ forecasts are derived using an allocation model based on factors influencing
development. To produce the sub-region forecasts, several models were developed and
results provided to the task force for review and consideration. These models distributed
the key economic and demographic variables from regional level to sub-regional level.
Four specific models were developed to replicate much of the early economic and
development discussion in this summary. The four models are:
Growth Rate Model: Using the best available data, a weighted moving average
model was created to reflect the growth patterns in each sub region. Recently
observed patterns had a greater impact on forecasted development patterns. These
growth patterns were calculated based on the rates of growth over three periods
and re-estimated forward to 2035.
Spatial Share Model: The spatial share approach used a weighted moving
average approach, which was then adjusted to reflect localized growth patterns.
However, given the recent economic slowdown, the pattern of comparative spatial
development may vary from a “steady-state” growth pattern.
Allocation (Decay Function) Model: This modeling approach used a reducing
decay function to meet the build-out plans from each area. The build-out levels
were created using the previous NFR socioeconomic outcomes and localized
plans. The decay function differs among the sub-regions in order to allow
proportional growth to be attracted to each sub-region.
Travel Behavior/Patterns Model: This model was developed using the existing
travel patterns within the sub-regions. The commuting patterns reflect the
relationship between job creation in one part of the region and resulting
residential development in other sub-regions. This model recognizes the relational
aspects of development within the region.
Each model approach was used to forecast both the residential and employment
development for each sub-region, holding regional totals to those in the regional forecast.
In the case of the Travel Behavior Model, the inputs of household locations were
prescribed and the resulting employment locations were modeled and visa-versa.
The results were presented to the Economic Forecasting Task Force for discussion and
comment. The discussion centered on identifying which model approach best reflected
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the current conditions and outcomes. (Note: While tempting, averaging the four
modeling outcomes does not improve the reliability nor the validity of the outcome.)
After careful consideration, the task force recommended using the Allocation/Decay
Function model for household forecasting and the Travel Behavior model for
employment forecasting. The impact of the recent recession on employment and
households caused both moving average models to be less reliable. Readjusting the
weighting factors within the moving average models reduced one of the characteristic
strengths of the model, changing it into a general trend model.
After the Task Force review and discussion, the selected models were revised and the
most up-to-date data was used to produce the final sub-regional forecasts. These
forecasts were used as control values for key forecasted variables within the NFR MPO
Socioeconomic model to produce TAZ forecasts.
Detailed Sub-regional Forecasts
A second model was developed to forecast specific detailed variables. This distributional
model creates the rich detail of information to be assigned to each sub-region in an
appropriate manner. This model produces population, households, household by income
level, out of region commuting levels, labor force, sole proprietors, employment, wage&
sales employment, and estimates of the types of employment for use in the NFR MPO
socioeconomic/land-use models.
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APPENDIX TABLES
TABLE 1-A SELECTED COLORADO ECONOMIC VARIABLES
TABLE 2-A STATE LABOR FORCE SUPPLY & DEMAND
TABLE 3-A DIRECT BASIC JOBS BY INDUSTRY-NORTH FRONT
RANGE MODELING AREA
TABLE 4-A LABOR FORCE SUPPLY AND DEMAND-NORTH
FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
TABLE 5-A SELECTED ECONOMIC VARIABLES-NORTH
FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
TABLE 6-A JOBS BY INDUSTRY GROUP-NORTH FRONT
RANGE MODELING AREA
TABLE 7-A POPULATION BY AGE-NORTH FRONT RANGE
MODELING AREA
TABLE 8-A ALL JOBS, WAGE & SALARY JOBS AND
PROPRIETORS JOBS BY MAJOR INDUSTRY
GROUP-NORTH FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
TABLE 9-A QCEW JOBS AND PERSONS WORKING AT HOME
BY MAJOR INDUSTRY GROUP-NORTH FRONT
RANGE MODELING AREA
TABLE 10-A ALL HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME RANGE-NORTH
FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
TABLE 11-A INCOME RANGE LIMITS FOR HOUSEHOLDS IN
CURRENT DOLLARS AND YEAR 2000 DOLLARS
TABLE 12-A HOUSEHOLDS BY SIZE AND INCOME-NORTH
FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
TABLE 13-A MEDIAN INCOME BY CATEGORY OF HOUSEHOLD-
NORTH FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
TABLE 14-A NFR MODELING AREA & SUB-REGIONS-
POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS AND LABOR FORCE
TABLE 15-A NFR MODELING AREA & SUB-REGIONS-
JOBS BY TYPE
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Table 1-A
9/28/05
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Jobs (Thou)
Nonfarm Jobs 1,520.8 1,834.4 2,212.6 2,235.3 2,493.8
Ann. Pct Ch 3.8% 3.8% 0.2% 2.2%
Total Jobs 1,882.3 2,240.8 2,702.6 2,768.1 3,112.7
Ann. Pct Ch 3.5% 3.8% 0.5% 2.4%
Labor Force & Population (Thou)
Unemployment Rate 5.1 4.0 2.6 5.0 5.0
Labor Force 1,826.6 2,107.2 2,389.2 2,602.3 2,864.2
Ann. Pct Ch 2.9% 2.5% 1.7% 1.9%
Births 53.1 54.4 63.6 65.9 71.9
Deaths 21.5 24.5 27.2 29.1 33.7
Net Migration 13.6 69.7 74.1 30.2 65.9
Population 3,302.4 3,809.4 4,339.5 4,709.5 5,146.8
Ann. Pct Ch 2.9% 2.6% 1.6% 1.8%
Housing (Thou)
Single Family Pmts 10.1 28.4 38.6 38.1 39.9
Multi-family PMts 1.8 10.2 16.0 3.8 4.1
Total Pmts 11.9 38.6 54.6 41.9 44.0
Retail Sales ($Mil)
Restaurants $2,928 $4,238 $5,788 $6,879 $8,802
Hotels $890 $1,468 $2,151 $2,514 $3,487
Retail Stores $24,335 $35,413 $51,856 $59,397 $74,169
Ann. Pct Ch 7.8% 7.9% 2.8% 4.5%
Metro Denver CPI 1.209 1.479 1.734 1.908 2.103
Ann. Pct Ch 4.1% 3.2% 1.9% 2.0%
Personal Income
Wages & Salaries ($Mil.) $37,119 $52,782 $85,909 $97,404 $133,525
Ann. Pct Ch 7.3% 10.2% 2.5% 6.5%
Other Labor Income $7,808 $11,383 $16,382 $22,298 $29,443
Farm Proprietors Income $712 $232 $178 $316 $333
Nonfarm Proprietors Income $5,080 $8,409 $15,137 $23,958 $32,716
Property Income $12,915 $17,858 $25,955 $28,636 $42,313
Transfer Payments $6,256 $9,758 $12,111 $16,591 $24,042
Residential Adjustment $91 $169 $290 $386 $400
Employee Social Insurance Contr. $5,235 $7,887 $11,567 $13,708 $19,104
Total Personal Income $64,748 $92,704 $144,394 $175,881 $243,668
Ann. Pct Ch 7.4% 9.3% 4.0% 6.7%
Selected US Variables
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Real GDP ($Bil.) $7,113 $8,032 $9,817 $11,187 $13,059
Ann. Pct Ch 2.5% 4.1% 2.6% 3.1%
Nonfarm Jobs (Mil.) 109.5 117.3 131.8 133.5 139.9
Ann. Pct Ch 1.4% 2.4% 0.3% 0.9%
Population (Mil.) 250.6 267.0 282.8 296.8 310.1
Ann. Pct Ch 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9%
Consumer Price Index 1.307 1.524 1.722 1.930 2.117
Ann. Pct Ch 3.1% 2.5% 2.3% 1.9%
Personal Income ($Bil.) $4,879 $6,152 $8,430 $10,109 $13,266
SELECTED COLORADO ECONOMIC VARIABLES
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Table 1-A (cont.)
9/28/05
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Jobs (Thou)
Nonfarm Jobs 2,735.7 2,985.2 3,210.6 3,418.4 3,639.8
Ann. Pct Ch 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3%
Total Jobs 3,402.3 3,686.9 3,966.1 4,229.3 4,513.8
Ann. Pct Ch 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3%
Labor Force & Population (Thou)
Unemployment Rate 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6
Labor Force 3,169.8 3,435.1 3,687.4 3,942.4 4,226.1
Ann. Pct Ch 2.0% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4%
Births 79.5 86.3 93.6 101.9 109.7
Deaths 37.3 41.1 47.5 55.8 65.2
Net Migration 68.7 53.3 72.1 67.3 66.0
Population 5,687.8 6,166.9 6,716.3 7,274.5 7,832.5
Ann. Pct Ch 2.0% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5%
Housing (Thou)
Single Family Pmts 43.5 40.0 41.0 38.2 37.6
Multi-family PMts 5.9 6.1 6.8 8.3 8.4
Total Pmts 49.3 46.1 47.8 46.5 46.0
Retail Sales ($Mil)
Restaurants $11,468 $14,878 $18,742 $22,809 $27,161
Hotels $4,851 $6,677 $9,102 $12,284 $16,645
Retail Stores $94,996 $121,404 $158,610 $210,435 $282,925
Ann. Pct Ch 5.1% 5.0% 5.5% 5.8% 6.1%
Metro Denver CPI 2.409 2.766 3.210 3.706 4.280
Ann. Pct Ch 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9%
Personal Income
Wages & Salaries ($Mil.) $180,253 $249,062 $344,150 $471,257 $647,161
Ann. Pct Ch 6.2% 6.7% 6.7% 6.5% 6.5%
Other Labor Income $38,992 $50,588 $64,523 $81,103 $100,678
Farm Proprietors Income $309 $333 $362 $356 $300
Nonfarm Proprietors Income $45,644 $60,898 $79,640 $103,514 $134,713
Property Income $65,026 $92,812 $128,384 $176,216 $243,755
Transfer Payments $34,396 $50,085 $72,818 $103,138 $144,412
Residential Adjustment $412 $422 $432 $441 $449
Employee Social Insurance Contr. $26,475 $38,418 $55,612 $79,610 $111,202
Total Personal Income $338,556 $465,783 $634,696 $856,414 $1,160,265
Ann. Pct Ch 6.8% 6.6% 6.4% 6.2% 6.3%
Selected US Variables
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Real GDP ($Bil.) $15,365 $17,856 $20,503 $23,554 $27,032
Ann. Pct Ch 3.3% 3.1% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
Nonfarm Jobs (Mil.) 148.4 156.8 165.2 175.2 186.6
Ann. Pct Ch 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3%
Population (Mil.) 323.5 337.0 350.6 364.8 379.1
Ann. Pct Ch 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Consumer Price Index 2.410 2.766 3.200 3.689 4.255
Ann. Pct Ch 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9%
SELECTED COLORADO ECONOMIC VARIABLES
Page 44
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 49 of 72
Table 2-A
9/28/05
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Labor Industrial Basic Jobs
Demand Agriculture 79,982 86,047 93,440 93,243 95,368
Mining 16,486 13,760 11,529 17,838 18,554
Manufacturing 118,072 117,493 131,112 106,489 116,894
Government 115,902 120,949 116,677 119,184 124,834
Region Center/National Service 160,199 203,213 262,109 264,446 319,609
Tourism 88,235 108,493 135,599 136,300 150,198
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL BASIC JOBS 578,877 649,956 750,467 737,500 825,457
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.3% 2.9% -0.3% 2.3%
Household Basic Jobs
Commuters 12,488 12,488 12,488 12,488 12,488
Fed Payments <65 38,132 46,459 53,194 58,192 64,664
Prop. Income <65 87,799 94,232 120,441 119,501 143,500
Persons Over 65 131,948 163,262 164,212 194,308
TOTAL HOUSEHOLD BASIC JOBS 285,128 349,385 354,393 414,961
Ann. Pct Ch. 4.1% 0.3% 3.2%
TOTAL BASIC JOBS 935,084 1,099,852 1,091,893 1,240,418
Ann. Pct Ch. 3.3% -0.1% 2.6%
NON-BASIC RESIDENT SV. JOBS 1,305,714 1,602,783 1,676,193 1,872,269
Ann. Pct Ch. 4.2% 0.9% 2.2%
Ratio:NBRS Jobs/Basic Jobs 1.40 1.46 1.54 1.51
TOTAL JOBS 1,882,299 2,240,798 2,702,635 2,768,086 3,112,687
Ann. Pct Ch. 3.5% 3.8% 0.5% 2.4%
Less: Military Jobs 52,077 45,393 42,567 45,235 49,735
CIVILIAN JOBS (DEMAND) 1,830,222 2,195,405 2,660,068 2,722,851 3,062,951
Ann. Pct Ch. 3.7% 3.9% 0.5% 2.4%
*Statistical Discrepancy -41,408 -15,861 119,475 22,106 22,106
CIVILIAN JOBS HELD (SUPPLY) 1,871,630 2,211,266 2,540,592 2,700,745 3,040,846
COMMUTING (+ = IN) 4,201 3,401 2,601 -2,368 64,716
JOBS HELD BY RESIDENTS 1,867,429 2,207,865 2,537,991 2,703,113 2,976,130
Plus:Jobs Multiply Held 133,948 184,979 210,886 230,316 254,060
Multiple Job Holding Rate 7.3% 8.8% 8.8% 8.9% 8.9%
Employed Persons (Residents) 1,733,481 2,022,886 2,327,105 2,472,798 2,722,070
Ann. Pct Ch. 3.1% 2.8% 1.2% 1.9%
Unemployment Rate 5.1% 4.0% 2.6% 5.0% 5.0%
Unemployed Persons 93,159 84,287 62,120 129,526 142,159
LABOR FORCE (RESIDENTS) 1,826,639 2,107,173 2,389,225 2,602,324 2,864,229
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.9% 2.5% 1.7% 1.9%
Labor Force Participation Rate 72.1% 72.0% 71.7% 71.7% 72.0%
Civilian Noninst. Population 16+ 2,533,037 2,924,686 3,330,296 3,631,767 3,980,728
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.9% 2.6% 1.7% 1.9%
STATE LABOR FORCE SUPPLY & DEMAND
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Table 2-A (cont.)
9/28/05
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Labor Industrial Basic Jobs
Demand Agriculture 98,676 102,113 105,258 108,569 111,226
Mining 15,570 14,906 14,664 14,461 14,158
Manufacturing 124,677 133,412 137,204 135,612 134,392
Government 127,757 128,863 128,880 127,217 125,469
Region Center/National Service 369,807 415,814 467,523 524,905 588,299
Tourism 154,183 159,533 162,387 165,881 168,505
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL BASIC JOBS 890,670 954,641 1,015,916 1,076,644 1,142,048
Ann. Pct Ch. 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2%
Household Basic Jobs
Commuters 12,488 12,488 12,488 12,488 12,488
Fed Payments <65 72,577 81,493 93,973 105,811 118,158
Prop. Income <65 165,628 187,460 205,797 224,904 244,138
Persons Over 65 230,379 265,340 299,211 331,322 367,627
TOTAL HOUSEHOLD BASIC JOBS 481,073 546,782 611,469 674,525 742,412
Ann. Pct Ch. 3.0% 2.6% 2.3% 2.0% 1.9%
TOTAL BASIC JOBS 1,371,743 1,501,422 1,627,385 1,751,169 1,884,460
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5%
NON-BASIC RESIDENT SV. JOBS 2,030,558 2,185,515 2,338,754 2,478,097 2,629,323
Ann. Pct Ch. 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2%
Ratio:NBRS Jobs/Basic Jobs 1.48 1.46 1.44 1.42 1.40
TOTAL JOBS 3,402,301 3,686,937 3,966,139 4,229,266 4,513,783
Ann. Pct Ch. 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3%
Less: Military Jobs 49,735 49,735 49,735 49,735 49,735
CIVILIAN JOBS (DEMAND) 3,352,565 3,637,201 3,916,403 4,179,531 4,464,048
Ann. Pct Ch. 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3%
*Statistical Discrepancy 22,106 22,106 22,106 22,106 22,106
CIVILIAN JOBS HELD (SUPPLY) 3,330,459 3,615,096 3,894,298 4,157,426 4,441,943
COMMUTING (+ = IN) 25,180 27,806 47,576 45,012 33,381
JOBS HELD BY RESIDENTS 3,305,279 3,587,290 3,846,722 4,112,414 4,408,562
Plus:Jobs Multiply Held 281,641 305,696 328,623 351,728 377,044
Multiple Job Holding Rate 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9%
Employed Persons (Residents) 3,023,638 3,281,594 3,518,099 3,760,685 4,031,517
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4%
Unemployment Rate 4.6% 4.5% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%
Unemployed Persons 146,138 153,515 169,340 181,676 194,596
LABOR FORCE (RESIDENTS) 3,169,776 3,435,110 3,687,439 3,942,361 4,226,114
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.0% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4%
Labor Force Participation Rate 72.2% 72.1% 71.1% 70.3% 70.1%
Civilian Noninst. Population 16+ 4,390,669 4,764,361 5,188,153 5,610,561 6,031,315
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.0% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5%
Civilian NI Pop 16+ / Total Pop 76.2% 76.2% 76.2% 76.1% 76.0%
STATE LABOR FORCE SUPPLY & DEMAND
Page 46
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 51 of 72
Table 3-A
01/24/06
2003 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Agribusiness 5,230 5,002 4,948 4,875 4,781 4,671 4,541 4,383 4,210
Crops and livestock production 4,127 3,931 3,884 3,745 3,600 3,456 3,309 3,151 2,994
Farm services 1,103 1,071 1,063 1,130 1,181 1,215 1,232 1,232 1,216
Mining & Utilities 844 836 1,103 1,660 1,554 1,584 1,517 1,380 1,204
Oil and gas extraction 340 369 567 901 795 781 763 732 707
Mining (except oil and gas) 206 222 248 346 369 389 347 258 121
Other 298 245 288 412 391 414 406 390 377
Construction 4,817 4,963 5,086 5,443 6,441 7,185 8,000 9,182 10,418
Construction of buildings 1,307 1,385 1,451 1,731 2,258 2,726 3,261 3,997 4,813
Heavy and cilvil engineering construction 431 410 429 527 656 784 920 1,080 1,226
Special trade contractors 3,079 3,168 3,205 3,184 3,527 3,674 3,819 4,105 4,379
Manufacturing 20,201 19,453 17,413 18,279 19,512 21,229 22,343 23,417 25,229
Wood product and furniture manufacturing 1,256 1,289 1,310 1,431 1,562 1,686 1,703 1,667 1,663
Machinery manufacturing 1,616 1,621 1,692 1,801 1,932 2,096 2,151 2,164 2,218
Computer and electrical equipment manufac 8,458 8,238 6,157 6,974 7,903 9,164 10,345 11,743 13,697
Food and beverage product manufacturing 4,648 4,449 4,462 4,507 4,543 4,569 4,585 4,585 4,574
Chemical manufacturing 2,443 2,245 2,164 1,877 1,756 1,770 1,564 1,223 913
Other Manufacturing 1,780 1,612 1,629 1,689 1,816 1,944 1,995 2,036 2,164
Trade 5,337 5,379 5,524 6,154 7,284 8,567 9,874 11,265 12,670
Wholesale 2,497 2,492 2,622 3,130 3,951 4,932 5,964 7,138 8,422
Retail 2,840 2,887 2,902 3,024 3,333 3,635 3,910 4,127 4,248
Transportation & Warehousing 1,181 1,168 1,214 1,430 1,657 1,896 2,145 2,404 2,640
Information 2,087 2,080 2,157 2,506 2,849 3,183 3,431 3,579 3,642
Publishing industries 1,746 1,742 1,802 2,087 2,333 2,575 2,737 2,824 2,848
Internet, ISPs, other te lecomm. 341 338 355 419 516 608 695 755 795
DIRECT BASIC JOBS BY INDUSTRY
NORTH FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
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Table 3-A (cont.)
01/24/06
2003 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Finance and Insurance 1,461 1,524 1,593 1,856 2,185 2,366 2,476 2,579 2,500
Monetary authorities and credit intermediat 234 246 251 263 284 280 267 255 227
Securities, commodity contracts and investm 26 26 27 28 31 30 29 27 24
Insurance carriers, funds, trusts, and other r 1,200 1,252 1,315 1,565 1,870 2,056 2,180 2,297 2,249
Real Estate 733 774 845 1,043 1,172 1,234 1,262 1,240 1,155
Professional, Scientific, and Technical 3,378 3,557 6,053 7,169 8,366 9,534 11,026 13,751 16,988
Management of Companies 80 90 98 126 157 187 220 254 284
Administrative and support and waste 2,751 2,944 3,195 4,273 5,751 7,090 8,679 10,474 12,341
Education, Health Care and Social Assistance 1,712 1,818 1,905 2,052 2,165 2,446 2,722 2,955 3,054
Private Educational services 911 969 1,008 1,039 1,019 1,126 1,248 1,360 1,401
Ambulatory health care services 323 341 361 409 465 537 602 653 679
Hospitals 267 287 303 343 388 447 500 542 562
Nursing and residential care facilities 211 221 233 261 293 335 372 400 412
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1,156 1,224 1,226 1,414 1,489 1,569 1,551 1,578 1,594
Accomodation and Food Services 5,659 5,736 6,240 7,688 8,299 9,156 9,613 9,638 9,290
Accommodation 905 786 881 1,319 1,664 2,036 2,387 2,714 3,005
Food services and drinking places 4,754 4,949 5,359 6,369 6,634 7,120 7,226 6,925 6,285
Other Services 803 832 852 977 1,085 1,234 1,380 1,552 1,701
Government 11,246 11,654 11,965 13,063 14,575 15,578 16,342 16,517 16,523
Federal government, civilian 1,860 1,869 1,885 1,972 2,032 2,127 2,179 2,257 2,338
Military 697 710 715 763 812 870 936 1,011 1,097
State Government 8,689 9,075 9,365 10,329 11,730 12,581 13,228 13,249 13,088
Local Government 000000000
DIRECT BASIC JOBS BY INDUSTRY
NORTH FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
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Table 4-A
1/24/06
1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Labor
Demand TOTAL INDUSTRIAL BASIC JOBS 71,535 69,654 68,674 69,036 71,417
Ann. Pct Ch. -2.6% -1.4% 0.5% 3.4%
TOTAL HOUSEHOLD BASIC JOBS 46,735 47,379 47,944 48,780 49,496
Ann. Pct Ch. 1.4% 1.2% 1.7% 1.5%
TOTAL BASIC JOBS 118,270 117,034 116,619 117,816 120,912
Ann. Pct Ch. -1.0% -0.4% 1.0% 2.6%
NON-BASIC RESIDENT SV. JOBS 103,192 106,016 105,217 105,716 105,290
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.7% -0.8% 0.5% -0.4%
Ratio:NBRS Jobs/Basic Jobs 0.87 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.87
TOTAL JOBS 141,889 215,510 221,462 223,050 221,836 223,532 226,202
Pct Ch. 4.3% 2.8% 0.7% -0.5% 0.8% 1.2%
Less: Military Jobs 1,329 1,277 1,197 848 863 868 878
CIVILIAN JOBS (DEMAND) 140,560 214,233 220,265 222,201 220,974 222,665 225,324
Pct Ch. 4.3% 2.8% 0.9% -0.6% 0.8% 1.2%
*Statistical Discrepancy -6,368 6,507 6,507 6,507 6,507 6,507 6,507
CIVILIAN JOBS HELD (SUPPLY) 146,928 207,727 213,759 215,695 214,467 216,158 218,817
COMMUTING (+ = IN) -9,490 -17,578 -14,911 -12,661 -15,587 -19,641 -19,058
JOBS HELD BY RESIDENTS 156,418 225,305 228,669 228,355 230,054 235,799 237,876
Plus:Jobs Multiply Held 10,209 18,455 18,905 19,228 19,449 19,816 19,936
Multiple Job Holding Rate 6.6% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7%
Employed Persons (Residents) 146,209 206,850 209,764 209,128 210,605 215,983 217,940
Pct Ch. 3.5% 1.4% -0.3% 0.7% 2.6% 0.9%
Unemployment Rate 5.2% 3.0% 3.9% 5.7% 6.0% 5.3% 5.0%
Unemployed Persons 7,972 6,295 8,439 12,680 13,488 12,203 11,470
LABOR FORCE (RESIDENTS) 154,181 213,145 218,203 221,808 224,094 228,186 229,410
Pct Ch. 3.3% 2.4% 1.7% 1.0% 1.8% 0.5%
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.3% 71.2% 70.0% 69.3% 68.4% 68.4% 66.1%
Civilian Noninst. Population 16+ 222,467 299,163 311,891 320,178 327,675 333,679 347,152
Pct Ch. 3.0% 4.3% 2.7% 2.3% 1.8% 4.0%
Civilian NI Pop 16+ / Total Pop 74.8% 76.3% 76.6% 76.8% 76.9% 76.3% 77.6%
"True" Population 297,565 391,891 407,044 416,813 426,379 437,217 447,478
Pct Ch. 2.8% 3.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 2.3%
Population Undercount 9,822 6,558 6,738 6,906 7,158 7,427 7,702
Percent Undercount 3.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8%
Labor POPULATION - CENSUS BASED 287,743 385,333 400,306 409,908 419,220 429,791 439,776
Supply Pct Ch. 3.0% 3.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 2.3%
LABOR FORCE SUPPLY AND DEMAND
NORTH FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
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Table 4-A (cont.)
1/24/06
2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Labor
Demand TOTAL INDUSTRIAL BASIC JOBS 73,347 80,010 89,322 98,709 107,122 116,149 125,444
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
TOTAL HOUSEHOLD BASIC JOBS 50,498 58,002 68,233 77,681 86,586 94,191 101,987
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.0% 3.5% 3.3% 2.6% 2.2% 1.7% 1.6%
TOTAL BASIC JOBS 123,844 138,012 157,556 176,390 193,708 210,340 227,432
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.3% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6%
NON-BASIC RESIDENT SV. JOBS 107,692 119,624 134,400 149,616 163,412 175,533 186,353
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.3% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.2%
Ratio:NBRS Jobs/Basic Jobs 0.87 0.87 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82
TOTAL JOBS 231,536 257,637 291,955 326,006 357,120 385,873 413,784
Pct Ch. 2.4% 2.7% 2.5% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4%
Less: Military Jobs 875 889 948 1,016 1,094 1,182 1,282
CIVILIAN JOBS (DEMAND) 230,661 256,747 291,007 324,990 356,026 384,691 412,502
Pct Ch. 2.4% 2.7% 2.5% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4%
*Statistical Discrepancy 6,507 6,507 6,507 6,507 6,507 6,507 6,507
CIVILIAN JOBS HELD (SUPPLY) 224,154 250,241 284,500 318,483 349,520 378,184 405,995
COMMUTING (+ = IN) -20,241 -23,221 -24,036 -21,710 -17,922 -14,312 -11,787
JOBS HELD BY RESIDENTS 244,395 273,461 308,536 340,193 367,441 392,496 417,783
Plus:Jobs Multiply Held 20,470 22,931 25,793 28,482 30,903 33,055 35,183
Multiple Job Holding Rate 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8%
Employed Persons (Residents) 223,925 250,530 282,743 311,711 336,538 359,441 382,600
Pct Ch. 2.7% 2.8% 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3%
Unemployment Rate 4.9% 4.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%
Unemployed Persons 11,503 12,812 13,039 14,284 16,400 17,201 18,583
LABOR FORCE (RESIDENTS) 235,428 263,342 295,783 325,995 352,938 376,642 401,183
Pct Ch. 2.6% 2.8% 2.4% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3%
Labor Force Participation Rate 66.7% 69.3% 71.6% 72.5% 71.5% 70.6% 70.6%
Civilian Noninst. Population 16+ 353,132 380,228 412,854 449,592 493,402 533,833 567,970
Pct Ch. 1.7% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.6% 1.2%
Civilian NI Pop 16+ / Total Pop 77.4% 77.0% 75.8% 75.2% 75.8% 76.6% 76.5%
"True" Population 456,094 494,019 544,614 597,716 651,264 696,906 742,070
Pct Ch. 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3%
Population Undercount 7,908 8,566 9,317 10,119 10,922 11,524 12,180
Percent Undercount 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
Labor POPULATION - CENSUS BASED 448,186 485,453 535,296 587,597 640,342 685,382 729,890
Supply Pct Ch. 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3%
LABOR FORCE SUPPLY AND DEMAND
NORTH FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
Page 50
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 55 of 72
Table 5-A
3/10/06
1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Industrial Basic Jobs
Agriculture 12,603 12,522 13,250 12,812 12,921
Mining 844 852 847 839 1,104
Manufacturing 19,541 17,743 16,568 16,024 14,009
Government 11,672 11,349 11,246 11,654 11,965
Region Center/National Service 16,615 16,660 16,274 16,974 20,094
Tourism 10,260 10,529 10,489 10,734 11,324
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL BASIC JOBS 71,535 69,654 68,674 69,036 71,417
Ann. Pct Ch. -2.6% -1.4% 0.5% 3.4%
Household Basic Jobs
Commuters 10,362 10,362 10,362 10,231 9,967
Fed Payments <65 6,365 6,577 6,730 6,872 7,015
Prop. Income <65 13,856 13,982 13,848 14,582 14,858
Persons Over 65 16,152 16,458 17,004 17,095 17,655
TOTAL HOUSEHOLD BASIC JOBS 46,735 47,379 47,944 48,780 49,496
Ann. Pct Ch. 1.4% 1.2% 1.7% 1.5%
TOTAL BASIC JOBS 118,270 117,034 116,619 117,816 120,912
Ann. Pct Ch. -1.0% -0.4% 1.0% 2.6%
NON-BASIC RESIDENT SV. JOBS 103,192 106,016 105,217 105,716 105,290
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.7% -0.8% 0.5% -0.4%
Total Jobs 141,889 215,510 221,462 223,050 221,836 223,532 226,202
Pct Ch. 4.3% 2.8% 0.7% -0.5% 0.8% 1.2%
Wage & Salary Jobs 121,014 183,932 188,921 189,426 187,916 189,430 191,535
Pct Ch. 4.3% 2.7% 0.3% -0.8% 0.8% 1.1%
Proprietors Jobs 20,875 31,578 32,541 33,624 33,920 34,102 34,667
Pct Ch. 4.2% 3.0% 3.3% 0.9% 0.5% 1.7%
Personal Income
Wage & Salary Disbursments $2,687.4 $6,263.9 $6,600.7 $6,811.2 $6,909.9 $7,258.2 $7,516.0
Pct Ch. 8.8% 5.4% 3.2% 1.4% 5.0% 3.6%
Other Labor Income $547.6 $1,223.4 $1,295.2 $1,455.6 $1,555.7 $1,687.1 $1,748.2
Social Security Payments $366.4 $825.2 $883.4 $917.5 $936.8 $993.8 $1,030.9
Property Income $1,039.7 $2,228.1 $2,273.4 $2,177.4 $2,122.2 $2,275.4 $2,331.0
Farm Proprietors Income $92.3 $58.7 $102.2 $62.9 $66.2 $67.6 $73.2
Nonfarm Proprietors Income $393.9 $1,010.0 $1,291.0 $1,430.7 $1,523.5 $1,661.0 $1,731.4
Transfer Payments $553.6 $1,111.5 $1,224.2 $1,347.3 $1,412.1 $1,493.8 $1,550.6
Adjustment for Residence $328.6 $1,119.7 $1,118.6 $983.6 $972.6 $971.3 $1,033.5
Total Personal Income $5,276.6 $12,190.1 $13,021.9 $13,351.3 $13,625.5 $14,420.6 $14,953.0
Pct Ch. 8.7% 6.8% 2.5% 2.1% 5.8% 3.7%
Households
Household size 2.59 2.64 2.63 2.62 2.61 2.60 2.59
Households (Census) 107,667 141,553 147,633 151,771 155,836 160,401 166,694
Households (Adjusted) 111,343 143,962 150,118 154,328 158,497 163,173 167,671
SELECTED ECONOMIC VARIABLES
NORTH FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
Page 51
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 56 of 72
Table 5-A (cont.)
1/24/06
2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Industrial Basic Jobs
Agriculture 13,037 13,457 14,252 15,163 16,055 17,018 18,039
Mining 1,341 1,660 1,554 1,584 1,517 1,380 1,204
Manufacturing 14,122 15,055 16,435 18,292 19,521 20,680 22,522
Government 12,160 13,063 14,575 15,578 16,342 16,517 16,523
Region Center/National Service 20,780 23,468 27,839 31,877 36,410 42,569 48,914
Tourism 11,907 13,305 14,667 16,215 17,276 17,985 18,242
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL BASIC JOBS 73,347 80,010 89,322 98,709 107,122 116,149 125,444
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
Household Basic Jobs
Commuters 10,035 10,216 10,340 10,415 10,466 10,502 10,528
Fed Payments <65 7,263 7,979 8,929 10,152 11,710 13,066 14,499
Prop. Income <65 15,326 19,285 24,793 29,594 33,220 36,819 40,820
Persons Over 65 17,873 20,522 24,170 27,520 31,191 33,804 36,140
TOTAL HOUSEHOLD BASIC JOBS 50,498 58,002 68,233 77,681 86,586 94,191 101,987
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.0% 3.5% 3.3% 2.6% 2.2% 1.7% 1.6%
TOTAL BASIC JOBS 123,844 138,012 157,556 176,390 193,708 210,340 227,432
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.3% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6%
NON-BASIC RESIDENT SV. JOBS 107,692 119,624 134,400 149,616 163,412 175,533 186,353
Ann. Pct Ch. 2.3% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.2%
Total Jobs 231,536 257,637 291,955 326,006 357,120 385,873 413,784
Pct Ch. 2.4% 2.7% 2.5% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4%
Wage & Salary Jobs 196,438 218,276 247,459 277,340 301,682 321,641 339,270
Pct Ch. 2.6% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 1.7% 1.3% 1.1%
Proprietors Jobs 35,098 39,360 44,497 48,666 55,438 64,232 74,514
Pct Ch. 1.2% 2.9% 2.5% 1.8% 2.6% 3.0% 3.0%
Personal Income
Wage & Salary Disbursments $8,030.5 $10,473.3 $14,687.3 $20,931.0 $29,451.5 $40,886.1 $56,409.2
Pct Ch. 6.8% 6.9% 7.0% 7.3% 7.1% 6.8% 6.6%
Other Labor Income $1,855.3 $2,343.4 $3,223.8 $4,313.8 $5,601.4 $7,136.4 $8,896.9
Social Security Payments $1,106.5 $1,460.8 $2,103.4 $3,147.9 $4,640.2 $6,734.9 $9,452.8
Property Income $2,451.7 $3,546.0 $5,618.3 $8,121.4 $11,122.9 $15,044.2 $20,612.0
Farm Proprietors Income $73.2 $77.2 $71.7 $77.2 $83.9 $82.4 $69.5
Nonfarm Proprietors Income $1,851.5 $2,411.2 $3,497.6 $4,818.2 $6,433.2 $8,500.7 $11,147.2
Transfer Payments $1,700.9 $2,311.5 $3,409.0 $5,029.1 $7,246.8 $10,131.8 $14,070.1
Adjustment for Residence $974.8 $786.0 $668.2 $589.3 $538.4 $512.0 $492.9
Total Personal Income $15,831.4 $20,487.7 $29,072.4 $40,732.1 $55,838.0 $75,558.7 $102,244.9
Pct Ch. 5.9% 6.7% 7.3% 7.0% 6.5% 6.2% 6.2%
Households
Household size 2.58 2.54 2.51 2.48 2.46 2.46 2.45
Households (Census) 168,525 185,134 206,843 229,690 252,307 269,958 289,324
Households (Adjusted) 171,498 188,400 210,444 233,646 256,610 274,497 294,152
SELECTED ECONOMIC VARIABLES
NORTH FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
Page 52
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 57 of 72
Table 6-A
1/24/06
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Agriculture 7,116 7,123 7,290 8,890 5,576 5,447 5,432
Ann. Pct. Ch. 0.1% 2.4% 21.9% -37.3% -2.3% -0.3%
Mining and Utilities 2,151 2,370 2,388 2,443 1,800 1,900 2,121
Ann. Pct. Ch. 10.2% 0.8% 2.3% -26.3% 5.5% 11.6%
Construction 20,258 21,990 22,325 21,736 20,738 18,956 17,782
Ann. Pct. Ch. 8.6% 1.5% -2.6% -4.6% -8.6% -6.2%
Manufacturing 29,596 30,059 27,730 26,224 24,644 21,560 21,607
Ann. Pct. Ch. 1.6% -7.7% -5.4% -6.0% -12.5% 0.2%
Wholesale and Retail 34,967 35,203 35,487 35,385 36,542 31,041 31,787
Ann. Pct. Ch. 0.7% 0.8% -0.3% 3.3% -15.1% 2.4%
Transportation and Warehousing 5,426 5,355 5,426 5,352 3,651 3,302 3,443
Ann. Pct. Ch. -1.3% 1.3% -1.4% -31.8% -9.6% 4.3%
Information 4,364 4,282 3,906 3,928 4,165 3,890 3,997
Ann. Pct. Ch. -1.9% -8.8% 0.6% 6.0% -6.6% 2.7%
Finance and Insurance 7,066 7,129 7,408 7,575 8,602 7,465 7,660
Ann. Pct. Ch. 0.9% 3.9% 2.2% 13.6% -13.2% 2.6%
Real Estate 6,785 6,902 7,242 7,327 8,635 7,686 8,068
Ann. Pct. Ch. 1.7% 4.9% 1.2% 17.9% -11.0% 5.0%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Svc. 13,040 14,507 14,089 13,637 15,549 16,100 16,956
Ann. Pct. Ch. 11.2% -2.9% -3.2% 14.0% 3.5% 5.3%
Management of Companies 952 886 917 909 1,012 835 820
Ann. Pct. Ch. -6.9% 3.5% -0.9% 11.4% -17.5% -1.8%
Administrative and Waste Svc. 14,735 13,589 13,347 13,351 14,978 13,314 13,853
Ann. Pct. Ch. -7.8% -1.8% 0.0% 12.2% -11.1% 4.0%
Education, Health Care and Social Assistance 21,243 22,541 23,983 24,741 27,789 23,762 24,772
Ann. Pct. Ch. 6.1% 6.4% 3.2% 12.3% -14.5% 4.3%
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 3,859 3,753 3,905 4,253 4,385 3,820 3,962
Ann. Pct. Ch. -2.8% 4.1% 8.9% 3.1% -12.9% 3.7%
Accomodation and Food Services 18,189 18,601 19,211 18,969 18,798 17,415 18,539
Ann. Pct. Ch. 2.3% 3.3% -1.3% -0.9% -7.4% 6.5%
Other Services 13,079 13,485 14,151 14,125 15,225 12,569 12,860
Ann. Pct. Ch. 3.1% 4.9% -0.2% 7.8% -17.4% 2.3%
Government 37,453 38,412 38,997 39,126 42,226 37,141 37,876
Ann. Pct. Ch. 2.6% 1.5% 0.3% 7.9% -12.0% 2.0%
All Industries 215,510 221,462 223,050 221,836 223,532 226,202 231,536
Ann. Pct. Ch. 2.8% 0.7% -0.5% 0.8% 1.2% 2.4%
JOBS BY INDUSTRY GROUP
NORTH FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
Page 53
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 58 of 72
Table 6-A (cont.)
1/24/06
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Agriculture 5,383 5,303 5,205 5,075 4,908 4,722
Ann. Pct. Ch. -0.2% -0.3% -0.4% -0.5% -0.7% -0.8%
Mining and Utilities 2,411 2,287 2,295 2,192 2,008 1,784
Ann. Pct. Ch. 3.2% -1.0% 0.1% -0.9% -1.7% -2.3%
Construction 18,869 22,424 24,735 27,317 30,613 34,172
Ann. Pct. Ch. 1.5% 3.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.2%
Manufacturing 22,111 22,774 23,910 24,413 24,811 25,910
Ann. Pct. Ch. 0.6% 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.9%
Wholesale and Retail 34,255 37,886 41,662 44,874 47,237 49,140
Ann. Pct. Ch. 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 1.5% 1.0% 0.8%
Transportation and Warehousing 4,063 4,930 5,719 6,510 7,331 8,145
Ann. Pct. Ch. 4.2% 3.9% 3.0% 2.6% 2.4% 2.1%
Information 4,600 5,358 6,116 6,789 7,147 7,370
Ann. Pct. Ch. 3.6% 3.1% 2.7% 2.1% 1.0% 0.6%
Finance and Insurance 8,897 10,429 11,485 12,292 12,965 13,252
Ann. Pct. Ch. 3.8% 3.2% 1.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.4%
Real Estate 9,858 11,726 13,214 14,476 15,186 15,504
Ann. Pct. Ch. 5.1% 3.5% 2.4% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4%
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Svc. 19,324 22,491 25,649 29,567 36,321 44,418
Ann. Pct. Ch. 3.3% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 4.2% 4.1%
Management of Companies 877 922 1,002 1,054 1,060 1,033
Ann. Pct. Ch. 1.7% 1.0% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1% -0.5%
Administrative and Waste Svc. 16,798 21,371 25,459 30,244 35,356 40,896
Ann. Pct. Ch. 4.9% 4.9% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0%
Education, Health Care and Social Assistance 28,392 32,462 38,078 43,320 47,294 50,797
Ann. Pct. Ch. 3.5% 2.7% 3.2% 2.6% 1.8% 1.4%
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 4,626 5,253 5,931 6,265 6,685 7,055
Ann. Pct. Ch. 3.9% 2.6% 2.5% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1%
Accomodation and Food Services 21,492 24,431 27,944 30,687 32,401 33,377
Ann. Pct. Ch. 3.8% 2.6% 2.7% 1.9% 1.1% 0.6%
Other Services 14,184 15,449 17,366 19,110 20,962 22,782
Ann. Pct. Ch. 2.5% 1.7% 2.4% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7%
Government 41,497 46,459 50,238 52,937 53,588 53,427
Ann. Pct. Ch. 2.3% 2.3% 1.6% 1.1% 0.2% -0.1%
All Industries 257,637 291,955 326,006 357,120 385,873 413,784
Ann. Pct. Ch. 2.7% 2.5% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4%
JOBS BY INDUSTRY GROUP
NORTH FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
Page 54
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 59 of 72
Table 7-A
1/24/06
Age group 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Under 5 22,461 25,925 31,770 33,750 36,208 38,755 41,607 44,145 46,574
5-15 47,364 61,660 65,046 70,104 78,018 84,657 90,760 95,680 100,147
16-17 7,570 11,074 12,933 13,119 13,506 15,820 16,766 17,632 18,422
18-24 41,801 54,565 59,182 64,100 65,166 67,802 74,482 77,618 80,388
25-44 98,309 115,826 127,060 138,098 158,143 174,631 188,074 201,541 214,497
45-64 46,342 81,100 103,866 118,637 124,776 131,449 140,681 153,209 168,383
65 & over 27,695 35,183 39,920 47,645 59,479 74,483 87,972 95,557 101,479
Total 291,542 385,333 439,776 485,453 535,296 587,597 640,342 685,382 729,890
Age group 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Under 5 7.7% 6.7% 7.2% 7.0% 6.8% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4% 6.4%
5-15 16.2% 16.0% 14.8% 14.4% 14.6% 14.4% 14.2% 14.0% 13.7%
16-17 2.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5%
18-24 14.3% 14.2% 13.5% 13.2% 12.2% 11.5% 11.6% 11.3% 11.0%
25-44 33.7% 30.1% 28.9% 28.4% 29.5% 29.7% 29.4% 29.4% 29.4%
45-64 15.9% 21.0% 23.6% 24.4% 23.3% 22.4% 22.0% 22.4% 23.1%
65 & over 9.5% 9.1% 9.1% 9.8% 11.1% 12.7% 13.7% 13.9% 13.9%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Age group 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Under 5 1.4% 4.1% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1%
5-15 2.7% 1.1% 1.5% 2.2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 0.9%
16-17 3.9% 3.2% 0.3% 0.6% 3.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9%
18-24 2.7% 1.6% 1.6% 0.3% 0.8% 1.9% 0.8% 0.7%
25-44 1.7% 1.9% 1.7% 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3%
45-64 5.8% 5.1% 2.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.7% 1.9%
65 & over 2.4% 2.6% 3.6% 4.5% 4.6% 3.4% 1.7% 1.2%
AGE DISTRIBUTION
ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
POPULATION BY AGE
POPULATION
NORTH FRONT RANGE PLANNING REGION
Page 55
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 60 of 72
Table 8-A
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Production 71,825 57,710 60,070 65,730 70,656 74,952 79,567 84,978
Ann Pct Ch. -4.3% 0.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3%
Retail 29,086 25,881 28,569 31,607 34,743 37,403 39,339 40,888
Ann Pct Ch. -2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.5% 1.0% 0.8%
Services 139,368 142,611 168,997 194,618 220,608 244,765 266,966 287,918
Ann Pct Ch. 0.5% 3.5% 2.9% 2.5% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5%
Total 240,279 226,202 257,637 291,955 326,006 357,120 385,873 413,784
Ann Pct Ch. -1.2% 2.6% 2.5% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Production 61,411 48,050 49,530 54,018 58,435 61,149 63,561 66,187
Ann Pct Ch. -4.8% 0.6% 1.7% 1.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8%
Retail 25,641 23,207 25,898 28,726 31,677 34,152 35,952 37,392
Ann Pct Ch. -2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.8%
Services 118,019 120,278 142,848 164,715 187,228 206,380 222,128 235,691
Ann Pct Ch. 0.4% 3.5% 2.9% 2.6% 2.0% 1.5% 1.2%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Production 10,414 9,659 10,540 11,713 12,220 13,803 16,005 18,791
Ann Pct Ch. -1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 0.9% 2.5% 3.0% 3.3%
Retail 3,445 2,674 2,671 2,880 3,066 3,251 3,387 3,496
Ann Pct Ch. -4.9% 0.0% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.6%
Services 21,348 22,334 26,149 29,904 33,380 38,385 44,839 52,227
Ann Pct Ch. 0.9% 3.2% 2.7% 2.2% 2.8% 3.2% 3.1%
ALL JOBS IN NORTH FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
BY INDUSTRY GROUP
WAGE & SALARY JOBS IN NORTH FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
BY INDUSTRY GROUP
PROPRIETORS JOBS IN NORTH FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
BY INDUSTRY GROUP
Page 56
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 61 of 72
Table 9-A
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Production 58,905 45,887 47,301 51,651 55,950 58,597 60,965 63,561
Ann Pct Ch. -4.9% 0.6% 1.8% 1.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8%
Retail 24,612 22,270 24,852 27,566 30,399 32,777 34,507 35,893
Ann Pct Ch. -2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.8%
Services 105,552 107,607 128,400 148,427 168,863 186,457 200,977 213,535
Ann Pct Ch. 0.4% 3.6% 2.9% 2.6% 2.0% 1.5% 1.2%
Total 189,068 175,764 200,553 227,644 255,211 277,830 296,448 312,989
Ann Pct Ch. -1.4% 2.7% 2.6% 2.3% 1.7% 1.3% 1.1%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Production 2,962 2,447 2,648 2,905 3,167 3,407 3,660 3,956
Ann Pct Ch. -3.7% 1.6% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6%
Retail 930 865 997 1,150 1,317 1,474 1,610 1,736
Ann Pct Ch. -1.4% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.3% 1.8% 1.5%
Services 7,913 8,537 10,564 12,506 14,664 16,823 19,153 21,548
Ann Pct Ch. 1.5% 4.4% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4%
Total 11,806 11,849 14,209 16,561 19,148 21,704 24,423 27,240
Ann Pct Ch. 0.1% 3.7% 3.1% 2.9% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2%
Production 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7%
Retail 3.2% 3.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 3.9% 4.1% 4.2%
Services 5.7% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.6% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5%
Total 4.9% 5.2% 5.5% 5.7% 5.9% 6.1% 6.3% 6.6%
QCEW JOBS IN NORTH FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
BY INDUSTRY GROUP
RATIOS TO TOTAL JOBS
PERSONS WORKING AT HOME IN NORTH FRONT RANGE MODELING AREA
BY INDUSTRY GROUP
Page 57
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 62 of 72
Table 10-A
Range in
2000 $ 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
0-$20k 26,274 32,173 29,473 28,458 26,661 25,481 22,312 19,217
$20k-$40k 33,846 43,236 41,545 44,144 43,839 42,375 41,498 39,198
$40k-$60k 30,968 36,624 38,898 40,537 43,245 47,326 44,571 44,317
$60k-$80k 19,310 21,367 28,130 32,426 36,599 38,393 39,961 39,442
$80k-$100k 14,023 14,997 18,910 21,969 27,202 32,884 36,049 36,300
Over $100k 17,133 18,297 28,179 39,310 52,144 65,848 85,567 110,849
Total 141,553 166,694 185,134 206,843 229,690 252,307 269,958 289,324
Median Income
2000 $ $46,733 $44,141 $50,300 $55,193 $60,554 $65,454 $72,891 $81,370
Current $ $46,733 $49,153 $60,852 $76,579 $96,656 $121,215 $155,823 $200,888
Range in
2000 Inc. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
0-$20k 26,274 29,905 32,439 35,770 39,729 42,187 45,239 49,117
$20k-$40k 33,846 40,680 45,402 51,504 57,268 64,269 68,071 73,145
$40k-$60k 30,968 35,520 39,219 45,367 50,278 53,753 59,515 62,721
$60k-$80k 19,310 23,967 26,758 28,831 33,490 37,682 39,879 42,761
$80k-$100k 14,023 14,165 16,853 18,845 20,840 22,420 23,659 23,198
Over $100k 17,133 22,457 24,463 26,526 28,085 31,995 33,595 38,382
Total 141,553 166,694 185,134 206,843 229,690 252,307 269,958 289,324
ALL NFR HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME RANGE
INCOME RANGES BASED ON 2000 RELATIONSHIP TO MEDIAN
ALL NFR HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME RANGE
INCOME RANGES IN 2000 DOLLARS
Page 58
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 63 of 72
Table 10-A (cont.)
Range in
2000 $ 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
0-$20k 18.6% 19.3% 15.9% 13.8% 11.6% 10.1% 8.3% 6.6%
$20k-$40k 23.9% 25.9% 22.4% 21.3% 19.1% 16.8% 15.4% 13.5%
$40k-$60k 21.9% 22.0% 21.0% 19.6% 18.8% 18.8% 16.5% 15.3%
$60k-$80k 13.6% 12.8% 15.2% 15.7% 15.9% 15.2% 14.8% 13.6%
$80k-$100k 9.9% 9.0% 10.2% 10.6% 11.8% 13.0% 13.4% 12.5%
Over $100k 12.1% 11.0% 15.2% 19.0% 22.7% 26.1% 31.7% 38.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Range in
2000 Inc. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
0-$20k 18.6% 17.9% 17.5% 17.3% 17.3% 16.7% 16.8% 17.0%
$20k-$40k 23.9% 24.4% 24.5% 24.9% 24.9% 25.5% 25.2% 25.3%
$40k-$60k 21.9% 21.3% 21.2% 21.9% 21.9% 21.3% 22.0% 21.7%
$60k-$80k 13.6% 14.4% 14.5% 13.9% 14.6% 14.9% 14.8% 14.8%
$80k-$100k 9.9% 8.5% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 8.9% 8.8% 8.0%
Over $100k 12.1% 13.5% 13.2% 12.8% 12.2% 12.7% 12.4% 13.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
INCOME RANGES BASED ON 2000 RELATIONSHIP TO MEDIAN
ALL NFR HOUSEHOLDS-DISTRIBUTION BY INCOME RANGE
ALL NFR HOUSEHOLDS-DISTRIBUTION BY INCOME RANGE
INCOME RANGES IN 2000 DOLLARS
Page 59
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 64 of 72
Table 11-A
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
$20,000 $18,891 $21,526 $23,620 $25,915 $28,012 $31,194 $34,823
$40,000 $37,781 $43,053 $47,241 $51,829 $56,023 $62,389 $69,646
$60,000 $56,672 $64,579 $70,861 $77,744 $84,035 $93,583 $104,470
$80,000 $75,562 $86,106 $94,482 $103,659 $112,047 $124,778 $139,293
$100,000 $94,453 $107,632 $118,102 $129,573 $140,059 $155,972 $174,116
Median $46,733 $44,141 $50,300 $55,193 $60,554 $65,454 $72,891 $81,370
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
$20,000 $21,036 $26,042 $32,773 $41,365 $51,875 $66,686 $85,972
$40,000 $42,071 $52,084 $65,546 $82,730 $103,750 $133,372 $171,944
$60,000 $63,107 $78,126 $98,319 $124,094 $155,625 $200,058 $257,915
$80,000 $84,142 $104,169 $131,092 $165,459 $207,500 $266,744 $343,887
$100,000 $105,178 $130,211 $163,864 $206,824 $259,375 $333,430 $429,859
Median $46,733 $49,153 $60,852 $76,579 $96,656 $121,215 $155,823 $200,888
NFR HOUSEHOLDS INCOME RANGE LIMITS
BASED ON 2000 RELATIONSHIP TO MEDIAN
INCOMES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
NFR HOUSEHOLDS INCOME RANGE LIMITS
BASED ON 2000 RELATIONSHIP TO MEDIAN
INCOMES IN 2000 DOLLARS
Page 60
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 65 of 72
Table 12-A
Range in
2000 Inc. 1 2 3 4 5 or moreTotal
0-$20k 13,789 6,895 2,956 1,648 986 26,274
$20k-$40k 10,188 12,147 5,126 3,821 2,564 33,846
$40k-$60k 3,890 11,919 5,852 5,467 3,840 30,968
$60k-$80k 1,183 7,797 3,875 3,800 2,655 19,310
$80k-$100k 657 5,878 2,860 2,728 1,900 14,023
Over $100k 1,206 7,078 3,470 3,195 2,183 17,133
Total 30,912 51,712 24,140 20,660 14,129 141,553
Range in
2000 Inc. 1 2 3 4 5 or moreTotal
0-$20k 15,749 7,767 3,561 1,867 961 29,905
$20k-$40k 12,373 14,613 6,370 4,663 2,661 40,680
$40k-$60k 4,262 14,141 6,901 6,457 3,759 35,520
$60k-$80k 1,449 9,735 4,974 4,949 2,861 23,967
$80k-$100k 657 5,926 2,992 2,915 1,674 14,165
Over $100k 1,533 9,348 4,684 4,413 2,480 22,457
Total 36,024 61,529 29,482 25,264 14,396 166,694
Range in
2000 Inc. 1 2 3 4 5 or moreTotal
0-$20k 17,085 8,376 3,967 2,065 945 32,439
$20k-$40k 13,892 16,365 7,200 5,300 2,645 45,402
$40k-$60k 4,601 15,840 7,691 7,365 3,722 39,219
$60k-$80k 1,595 10,961 5,606 5,723 2,872 26,758
$80k-$100k 709 7,188 3,587 3,589 1,780 16,853
Over $100k 1,710 10,265 5,133 4,943 2,411 24,463
Total 39,592 68,996 33,184 28,987 14,375 185,134
Range in
2000 Inc. 1 2 3 4 5 or moreTotal
0-$20k 18,810 9,154 4,462 2,348 996 35,770
$20k-$40k 15,494 18,580 8,229 6,279 2,921 51,504
$40k-$60k 5,164 18,127 8,965 8,916 4,195 45,367
$60k-$80k 1,632 11,954 6,029 6,289 2,928 28,831
$80k-$100k 800 8,010 4,008 4,119 1,909 18,845
Over $100k 1,874 11,046 5,569 5,527 2,510 26,526
Total 43,773 76,871 37,261 33,479 15,459 206,843
2015
HH SIZE
2010
HH SIZE
HH SIZE
2005
HH SIZE
NFR HOUSEHOLDS-HH SIZE BY INCOME
INCOME RANGES BASED
ON 2000 RELATIONSHIP TO MEDIAN
2000
Page 61
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 66 of 72
Table 12-A (cont.)
Range in
2000 Inc. 1 2 3 4 5 or moreTotal
0-$20k 21,171 9,957 4,889 2,601 1,110 39,729
$20k-$40k 16,813 21,016 9,215 6,972 3,251 57,268
$40k-$60k 5,930 20,229 9,845 9,693 4,582 50,278
$60k-$80k 1,807 13,894 7,050 7,318 3,421 33,490
$80k-$100k 779 8,986 4,447 4,529 2,099 20,840
Over $100k 2,091 11,700 5,881 5,778 2,635 28,085
Total 48,591 85,782 41,326 36,892 17,100 229,690
Range in
2000 Inc. 1 2 3 4 5 or moreTotal
0-$20k 22,774 10,492 5,128 2,667 1,126 42,187
$20k-$40k 19,428 23,692 10,137 7,531 3,482 64,269
$40k-$60k 6,142 22,084 10,502 10,225 4,801 53,753
$60k-$80k 2,295 15,361 7,902 8,271 3,852 37,682
$80k-$100k 820 9,794 4,772 4,817 2,217 22,420
Over $100k 2,371 13,348 6,691 6,601 2,984 31,995
Total 53,831 94,770 45,133 40,113 18,461 252,307
Range in
2000 Inc. 1 2 3 4 5 or moreTotal
0-$20k 24,326 11,161 5,576 2,965 1,211 45,239
$20k-$40k 19,945 25,482 10,876 8,138 3,631 68,071
$40k-$60k 6,892 23,984 11,743 11,634 5,262 59,515
$60k-$80k 2,050 16,770 8,389 8,761 3,909 39,879
$80k-$100k 822 10,176 5,096 5,246 2,320 23,659
Over $100k 2,485 14,000 7,071 6,999 3,040 33,595
Total 56,519 101,572 48,751 43,743 19,374 269,958
Range in
2000 Inc. 1 2 3 4 5 or moreTotal
0-$20k 26,537 12,033 6,063 3,216 1,268 49,117
$20k-$40k 21,223 27,634 11,747 8,779 3,761 73,145
$40k-$60k 7,081 25,449 12,427 12,363 5,399 62,721
$60k-$80k 2,211 17,730 9,068 9,615 4,137 42,761
$80k-$100k 757 10,032 5,019 5,185 2,204 23,198
Over $100k 2,764 15,979 8,110 8,127 3,403 38,382
Total 60,573 108,858 52,435 47,285 20,172 289,324
HH SIZE
HH SIZE
2030
HH SIZE
2035
ON 2000 RELATIONSHIP TO MEDIAN
2020
HH SIZE
2025
NFR HOUSEHOLDS-HH SIZE BY INCOME
INCOME RANGES BASED
Page 62
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 67 of 72
Table 13-A
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
All HH $46,733 $44,141 $50,300 $55,193 $60,554 $65,454 $72,891 $81,370
By Age
18-24 $21,089 $19,689 $22,487 $23,777 $25,555 $28,449 $30,807 $34,242
25-44 $50,735 $47,795 $54,179 $58,988 $64,756 $70,839 $78,730 $87,975
45-64 $59,273 $55,724 $63,745 $69,207 $76,249 $83,523 $92,035 $103,153
65 & over $28,782 $27,033 $33,080 $38,473 $43,466 $47,679 $52,604 $58,647
By Type
1Adult, no Children $22,505 $21,571 $24,853 $27,102 $29,747 $32,503 $35,823 $39,922
1 Adult with Children $22,454 $21,299 $24,407 $26,298 $29,043 $32,125 $35,863 $40,028
More than 1 Adult, no Children $52,661 $49,879 $57,102 $61,947 $68,442 $73,372 $82,311 $91,646
More than 1 Adult with Children $59,980 $57,215 $65,530 $70,349 $77,203 $84,957 $93,254 $104,673
By Size
1 person $22,505 $21,571 $24,853 $27,102 $29,747 $32,503 $35,823 $39,922
2 persons $50,946 $48,332 $55,395 $59,891 $66,538 $71,397 $79,814 $89,102
3 persons $53,770 $50,965 $57,830 $62,737 $68,802 $74,763 $83,386 $92,835
4 persons $57,944 $55,711 $63,876 $68,851 $74,989 $83,033 $91,380 $102,316
5 or more persons $58,441 $55,827 $63,851 $68,835 $74,938 $83,000 $91,231 $102,088
All HH $46,733 $49,153 $60,852 $76,579 $96,656 $121,215 $155,823 $200,888
By Age
18-24 $21,089 $21,925 $27,204 $32,990 $40,791 $52,685 $65,857 $84,537
25-44 $50,735 $53,222 $65,544 $81,844 $103,363 $131,187 $168,306 $217,192
45-64 $59,273 $62,052 $77,116 $96,023 $121,707 $154,677 $196,749 $254,664
65 & over $28,782 $30,102 $40,019 $53,381 $69,380 $88,297 $112,454 $144,788
By Type
1Adult, no Children $22,505 $24,020 $30,066 $37,603 $47,482 $60,192 $76,581 $98,559
1 Adult with Children $22,454 $23,717 $29,527 $36,488 $46,358 $59,493 $76,666 $98,822
More than 1 Adult, no Children $52,661 $55,543 $69,081 $85,951 $109,246 $135,878 $175,961 $226,257
More than 1 Adult with Children $59,980 $63,712 $79,276 $97,607 $123,231 $157,333 $199,354 $258,418
By Size
1 person $22,505 $24,020 $30,066 $37,603 $47,482 $60,192 $76,581 $98,559
2 persons $50,946 $53,820 $67,016 $83,097 $106,208 $132,221 $170,623 $219,976
3 persons $53,770 $56,752 $69,962 $87,046 $109,821 $138,453 $178,259 $229,191
4 persons $57,944 $62,037 $77,275 $95,530 $119,697 $153,769 $195,348 $252,599
5 or more persons $58,441 $62,166 $77,245 $95,507 $119,616 $153,708 $195,030 $252,035
NFR MODELING AREA-MEDIAN INCOMES BY CATEGORY OF HOUSEHOLD
NFR MODELING AREAMEDIAN INCOMES BY CATEGORY OF HOUSEHOLD
INCOMES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
INCOMES IN 2000 DOLLARS
Page 63
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 68 of 72
Table 14-A
Households
(Adjusted)
Households
(Census)
Population
(Census) Labor Force Jobs Held Commuting Employment
1990 111,343 107,667 287,743 154,181 156,418 9,490 146,928
2000 143,962 141,553 385,333 213,145 225,305 17,578 207,727
2005 167,671 166,694 439,776 229,410 237,876 19,058 218,818
2010 188,400 185,134 485,453 263,342 273,461 23,221 250,240
2015 210,444 206,843 535,296 295,783 308,536 24,036 284,500
2020 233,646 229,690 587,597 325,995 340,193 21,710 318,483
2025 256,610 252,307 640,342 352,938 367,441 17,922 349,519
2030 274,497 269,958 685,382 376,642 392,496 14,312 378,184
2035 294,152 289,324 729,890 401,183 417,783 11,787 405,996
Build Out 509,637 1,285,745 695,108 -- -- 3,220,120
Households
(Adjusted)
Households
(Census)
Population
(Census) Labor Force Jobs Held Commuting Employment
2000 30,701 30,187 84,070 46,508 49,161 27,789 21,372
2005 33,710 33,515 90,687 47,301 49,047 26,069 22,977
2010 40,058 39,364 105,746 57,376 59,581 32,411 27,170
2015 46,632 45,835 120,890 66,808 69,688 35,005 34,683
2020 53,764 52,854 137,000 76,008 79,319 33,015 46,303
2025 61,021 59,998 154,396 85,072 88,568 30,440 58,128
2030 66,812 65,707 167,037 92,849 96,757 27,284 69,473
2035 73,283 72,080 181,978 101,174 105,361 24,383 80,978
Build Out 1,591,569
NFR MODELING AREA & SUB-REGIONS
POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS AND LABOR FORCE
NFR Total Area
NFR Surrounding Areas
Page 64
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 69 of 72
Table 14-A (cont.)
Households
(Adjusted)
Households
(Census)
Population
(Census) Labor Force Jobs Held Commuting Employment
2000 30,777 30,262 84,956 46,998 49,679 -10,224 59,903
2005 39,980 39,746 106,629 55,620 57,673 -307 57,979
2010 46,321 45,518 120,496 65,365 67,876 -534 68,410
2015 52,886 51,981 136,599 75,480 78,734 -1,984 80,718
2020 59,870 58,856 153,914 85,391 89,110 -1,849 90,959
2025 66,849 65,728 168,759 93,015 96,837 -2,952 99,789
2030 72,328 71,132 180,792 99,352 103,534 -4,136 107,670
2035 78,380 77,093 192,754 105,948 110,332 -5,301 115,632
Buildout 883,932
Households
(Adjusted)
Households
(Census)
Population
(Census) Labor Force Jobs Held Commuting Employment
2000 57,665 56,700 154,102 85,249 90,113 -3,233 93,346
2005 64,133 63,760 168,540 87,911 91,155 -8,559 99,714
2010 68,226 67,043 176,443 95,714 99,392 -9,096 108,489
2015 73,013 71,763 186,249 102,915 107,352 -7,737 115,088
2020 77,794 76,477 196,071 108,779 113,517 -6,403 119,920
2025 82,290 80,910 206,362 113,741 118,415 -5,768 124,182
2030 85,634 84,218 215,407 118,374 123,357 -5,227 128,583
2035 89,189 87,725 223,692 122,952 128,040 -4,322 132,362
Buildout 134,000
Households
(Adjusted)
Households
(Census)
Population
(Census) Labor Force Jobs Held Commuting Employment
2000 24,819 24,404 62,120 34,365 36,325 3,218 33,107
2005 29,848 29,673 73,919 38,558 39,981 1,838 38,143
2010 33,795 33,209 82,634 44,826 46,549 294 46,255
2015 37,913 37,264 91,462 50,539 52,718 -1,296 54,013
2020 42,218 41,503 100,595 55,810 58,241 -3,029 61,269
2025 46,450 45,671 111,068 61,217 63,733 -3,732 67,465
2030 49,723 48,901 120,184 66,045 68,825 -3,692 72,517
2035 53,300 52,426 129,387 71,116 74,059 -2,908 76,967
Buildout 610,619
Greeley Area
Fort Collins Area
Loveland Area
NFR MODELING AREA & SUB-REGIONS
POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS AND LABOR FORCE
Page 65
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 70 of 72
Table 15-A
Total Jobs
Sole
Proprietors W & S Jobs QCEW Jobs Retail Service Production
2000 141,889 20,875 121,014 121,014
2005 240,279 35,208 205,071 189,068 24,612 105,551 58,905
2010 226,202 34,667 191,535 175,764 22,270 107,607 45,887
2015 257,637 39,361 218,276 200,553 24,852 128,400 47,301
2020 291,955 44,496 247,459 227,644 27,566 148,427 51,651
2025 326,006 48,666 277,340 255,211 30,399 168,862 55,950
2030 357,210 55,528 301,682 277,830 32,777 186,096 58,957
2035 385,873 64,232 321,641 296,448 34,507 200,976 60,965
Buildout 413,784 74,514 339,270 312,989 35,893 213,535 63,561
Total Jobs
Sole
Proprietors W & S Jobs QCEW Jobs Retail Service Production
2000 24,721 3,622 21,099 19,452 1,688 8,836 8,928
2005 23,753 3,640 20,113 18,456 1,599 8,000 8,858
2010 27,973 4,274 23,699 21,775 1,851 10,326 9,599
2015 35,592 5,424 30,167 27,752 2,334 13,724 11,694
2020 47,397 7,075 40,322 37,104 3,114 19,003 14,988
2025 59,407 9,235 50,172 46,205 3,874 24,575 17,756
2030 70,885 11,800 59,086 54,458 4,532 29,881 20,045
2035 82,531 14,862 67,669 62,427 5,142 34,734 22,551
NFR Surrounding Areas
NFR Total Area
JOBS BY TYPE
NFR MODELING AREA & SUB-REGIONS
Page 66
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 71 of 72
Table 15-A (cont.)
Total Jobs
Sole
Proprietors W & S Jobs QCEW Jobs Retail Service Production
2000 69,290 10,153 59,137 54,522 6,426 30,302 17,794
2005 59,936 9,186 50,750 46,571 5,866 29,170 11,536
2010 70,432 10,760 59,672 54,827 6,765 36,184 11,878
2015 82,833 12,624 70,209 64,587 7,837 43,548 13,202
2020 93,107 13,899 79,208 72,888 8,778 50,178 13,932
2025 101,985 15,853 86,131 79,322 9,533 55,466 14,323
2030 109,859 18,287 91,572 84,399 10,072 59,854 14,474
2035 117,850 21,222 96,628 89,143 10,545 63,788 14,810
Total Jobs
Sole
Proprietors W & S Jobs QCEW Jobs Retail Service Production
2000 107,974 15,821 92,152 84,961 11,874 50,867 22,220
2005 103,079 15,798 87,281 80,095 10,641 54,116 15,338
2010 111,695 17,064 94,631 86,947 11,302 61,253 14,393
2015 118,104 18,000 100,104 92,089 11,749 66,246 14,093
2020 122,752 18,324 104,428 96,096 12,160 70,506 13,429
2025 126,915 19,729 107,186 98,712 12,469 73,366 12,877
2030 131,198 21,839 109,359 100,793 12,654 75,804 12,335
2035 134,901 24,293 110,608 102,040 12,718 77,460 11,862
Total Jobs
Sole
Proprietors W & S Jobs QCEW Jobs Retail Service Production
2000 38,295 5,611 32,684 30,133 4,624 15,547 9,963
2005 39,430 6,043 33,387 30,638 4,165 16,319 10,154
2010 47,622 7,276 40,347 37,071 4,935 20,704 11,432
2015 55,428 8,448 46,981 43,219 5,646 24,912 12,662
2020 62,717 9,362 53,354 49,097 6,347 29,149 13,601
2025 68,949 10,718 58,231 53,627 6,901 32,724 14,002
2030 73,992 12,317 61,675 56,844 7,250 35,483 14,111
2035 78,443 14,126 64,317 59,335 7,488 37,510 14,337
Greeley Area
Fort Collins Area
Loveland Area
NFR MODELING AREA & SUB-REGIONS
JOBS BY TYPE
Page 67
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 72 of 72
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 1 of 34
REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL
7346 DEMOGRAPHIC FORECAST FOR NFRMPO REGION
The City of Fort Collins on behalf of the North Front Range Metropolitan Planning
Organization, hereinafter referred to as "NFRMPO" or "MPO", is soliciting proposals for
a 2040 Demographic Forecast for the North Front Range that includes all of the North
Front Range MPO and portions of Weld and Larimer Counties in the ozone
nonattainment area.
Written proposals, six (6) copies, will be received at the City of Fort Collins' Purchasing
Division, 215 North Mason St., 2nd floor, Fort Collins, Colorado 80524. Proposals will
be received before 3:00 p.m. (our clock), March 16, 2012 and referenced as
Proposal No. 7346. If delivered, they are to be sent to 215 North Mason Street, 2
nd
Floor, Fort Collins, Colorado 80524. If mailed, the address is P.O. Box 580, Fort
Collins, 80522-0580.
The City has an overall DBE goal of 9.9%. There is no specific contract goal for this
project but the City encourages proposals from and the use of DBE firms in this project.
Questions concerning the scope of the project should be directed to Project Manager,
Suzette Mallette, at (970) 416-2257 or smallette@nfrmpo.org.
Questions regarding bid submittal or process should be directed to James B. O’Neill II,
CPPO, FNIGP, Director of Purchasing & Risk Management, at (970) 221-6779 or
joneill@fcgov.com.
A copy of the Proposal may be obtained as follows:
1. Download the Proposal/Bid from the BuySpeed Webpage,
www.fcgov.com/eprocurement
The City of Fort Collins is subject to public information laws, which permit access to
most records and documents. Proprietary information in your response must be clearly
identified and will be protected to the extent legally permissible. Proposals may not be
marked ‘Proprietary’ in their entirety. Information considered proprietary is limited to
material treated as confidential in the normal conduct of business, trade secrets,
discount information, and individual product or service pricing. Summary price
information may not be designated as proprietary as such information may be carried
forward into other public documents. All provisions of any contract resulting from this
request for proposal will be public information.
Sales Prohibited/Conflict of Interest: No officer, employee, or member of City Council,
shall have a financial interest in the sale to the City of any real or personal property,
equipment, material, supplies or services where such officer or employee exercises
Financial Services
Purchasing Division
215 N. Mason St. 2nd Floor
PO Box 580
Fort Collins, CO 80522
970.221.6775
970.221.6707
fcgov.com/purchasing
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 2 of 34
directly or indirectly any decision-making authority concerning such sale or any
supervisory authority over the services to be rendered. This rule also applies to
subcontracts with the City. Soliciting or accepting any gift, gratuity favor, entertainment,
kickback or any items of monetary value from any person who has or is seeking to do
business with the City of Fort Collins is prohibited.
Collusive or sham proposals: Any proposal deemed to be collusive or a sham proposal
will be rejected and reported to authorities as such. Your authorized signature of this
proposal assures that such proposal is genuine and is not a collusive or sham proposal.
The City of Fort Collins reserves the right to reject any and all proposals and to waive
any irregularities or informalities.
Sincerely,
James B. O'Neill II, CPPO, FNIGP
Director of Purchasing & Risk Management
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 3 of 34
PROPOSAL REQUIREMENTS
7346 DEMOGRAPHIC FORECAST FOR NFRMPO REGION
Section 1.0: Proposal Requirements
1.1 General Description
The City of Fort Collins on behalf of the North Front Range Metropolitan Planning
Organization, hereinafter referred to as "NFRMPO" or "MPO", is soliciting
proposals for a 2040 Demographic Forecast for the North Front Range that
includes all of the North Front Range MPO and portions of Weld and Larimer
Counties in the ozone nonattainment area.
1.2 Proposal Submittal
Neither the City of Fort Collins nor the MPO will reimburse any firm for costs
incurred in the preparation and presentation of their proposal.
Firms submitting proposals shall submit six (6) copies of the proposal with the
following information:
1. Company history and experience in developing demographic forecasts
2. The name of the company representatives responsible for:
• Providing information during the evaluation process
• Project account manager for the duration of the contract period
3. A written description of the proposed products and services as required below.
4. Pricing, as requested.
The proposal must be signed by a duly authorized representative of the firm
submitting the proposal. The signature shall include the title of the individual
signing the proposal.
Section 2.0: Background
The North Front Range Metropolitan Planning Organization (NFRMPO) is an
association of 15 local governments working together to improve regional
transportation and air quality. The NFRMPO does long-range and short-range
planning and prioritizes which projects in those plans will receive state and
federal funding. The NFRMPO is a nonprofit public organization funded through
federal and state grants as well as local funds.
Additionally, the NFRMPO works to enhance air quality and mobility between the
North Front Range and the Denver Metro area by developing cooperative
working relationships and financial partnerships among our member
governments, the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT), Federal
Highway Administration (FHWA), the Federal Transit Administration (FTA), and
the private sector.
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 4 of 34
2.1 Current Forecast Report
The NFRMPO’s most current forecast report, completed in March 2006, can be
found at www.nfrmpo.org under the Archive tab. This report has been used for
building the land use allocation and regional travel demand models first in 2006
and more recently in 2010 with an out year of 2035. It is the desire to keep the
forecast methodologies and modeling parameters consistent in the next report
with the current report. This consistency enables integration with the Denver
Regional Council of Governments that abuts the NFRMPO and the State
Demographer’s Office that also use the methodology described in the current
report. Consistency is also important for historical trending.
2.2 Current Report Uses
The information from the Forecast report is used extensively in the development
of the land use allocation model and regional travel model. The current Land
Use Allocation Model (LUAM) is built on CommunityViz software that has had
extensive customization. The regional travel demand model is built using
TransCad software.
2.3 Geographic Areas
A map of the region that the forecast pertains to is shown on the following page.
The geography is currently divided into six (6) subarea that are: City of Fort
Collins, City of Loveland, City of Greeley, remainder of the NFRMPO modeling
area (orange), ozone nonattainment area – Larimer County, ozone
nonattainment area – Weld County. Other subareas will likely be identified at the
onset of this report. It is anticipated that the Windsor area may become a new
subarea.
Each subarea forecast needs to identify total households, household income,
household size, total employment and employment type. It is important that the
selected firm is able to provide forecast data at subcounty levels.
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 5 of 34
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 6 of 34
SCOPE OF WORK
7346 DEMOGRAPHIC FORECAST FOR NFRMPO REGION
3.0 SCOPE OF WORK
A. Introduction
Economic and Population/Household Demographic Forecast
The North Front Range MPO (NFRMPO) is seeking proposals to complete a long-term
economic and population/household demographic forecast for the region. The forecast
horizon for this project is 2040.
B. Objective and Goals
The selected respondent(s) will be requested to deliver the following (more detail on
each task follows below):
• A regional forecast with major macroeconomic indicators and subarea control
totals out to the year 2040
• A population and household demographic forecast out to the year 2040 for the
persons and households projected to be in the NFRMPO region
• Complete documentation of the models
• The co-leadership (along with NFRMPO staff) of a task force of regional
economists (the Task Force) who will be convened as advisory to this forecast
effort
The Regional Economic Forecast
The first component is the preparation of an economic forecast whose outputs, including
employment, labor force and population, will be estimated through 2040 for the
NFRMPO area as shown in the attached map. All forecasted elements will be
presented in five year increments through the 2040 end of the planning period.
Specifically, the economic forecast must estimate the following key economic elements:
• Population for the NFRMPO region
• Employment variables
o Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Jobs in industrial
classifications to be determined by NFRMPO staff.
o Total jobs by Industry by Major North American Industry Classification
System (NAICS) industry group (
1
) to be determined in conjunction with
NFRMPO staff (
2
)
1 NAICS categories of employment to be modeled will be provided to consultant by NFRMPO staff
2 Job estimates include both total jobs (wage and salary, military, self employed, etc) and non-agricultural
wage and salary jobs (jobs concept reported by BLS).
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 7 of 34
o Jobs by type-civilian wage & salary, military, self-employed, contract
workers, and persons working at home
o Direct basic industrial and household jobs
o Net migration and net commuting into region
o Labor supply and demand including major elements of both
Personal income in current dollars by major component
Wage and salary income
Number of households
Average household size
Oil and natural gas prices
Denver-Boulder-Greeley CPI-U
Median home price
Other variables as determined by NFRMPO staff
The Population and Household Demographic Forecast
The second component is the preparation of a forecast of the distribution of population
and households in the NFRMPO modeling area and its subareas. This forecast will
make the following distributions of population and households for every five years out to
the year 2040:
For population
o Gender
o Age (
3
)
o Other demographics as requested by NFRMPO staff
For households (
4
):
o Real income
o Age of householder
o Demographic makeup of household (1 adult with children, 1 adult no
children, 2 or more adults with children, 2 or more adults no children)
o Household size
o Number of workers
o Other demographics as requested by NFRMPO staff
Model Documentation
The third component is complete documentation of the model. This must include a
summary of the trends revealed in the forecast, a description of forecast methodology
including all major forecast assumptions, and major threats to the forecast.
Task Force Responsibilities
The consultant will be asked to co-lead three Task Force meetings scheduled
approximately one month apart from each other. The Task Force will consist of
3 Specific breakouts for age will be jointly determined by consultants and NFRMPO staff
4 Specific breakouts for age and income categories will be jointly determined by consultants and
NFRMPO staff.
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 8 of 34
economists from the region and will be formed for the purposes of advising the forecast
effort. As an example of the process, the following outline summarizes the potential
agendas. This schedule and agenda may be subject to modification for this forecast, as
requested by either NFRMPO staff or the consultant. In addition, the consultant may be
asked to meet with NFRMPO staff in advance of Task Force meetings to plan for each
specific meeting.
First Task Force meeting – Sample topics for discussion
• General approach to forecast
• Preliminary set of critical assumptions
• Present data covering recent history for major macroeconomic indicators for both
the nation and Colorado
• Preliminary economic forecast for NFRMPO Modeling Area and the subregions
• Preliminary discussion of population/household demographic forecast
Second Task Force meeting –Sample topics for discussion
• Revised economic forecast
• Preliminary population and household demographic and income forecast
• Income distribution issues
Third Task Force meeting – Sample topics for discussion
• Final economic forecast
• Final population and household demographic and income forecast
• Final review of key forecasting assumptions and threats to the forecast
4.0 PRICING
All submitting contractors should submit a breakdown of their proposal in the following
manner:
1. Cost of effort in the NFRMPO modeling area that currently includes 4 subareas.
2. Cost of the effort in the nonattainment area in Weld and Larimer Counties.
3. All costs should be broken down by task.
4. Profit and overhead amounts should be noted in the Cost breakout. If you have
audited overhead amounts please include that documentation.
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 9 of 34
REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT
Professional firms will be evaluated on the following criteria. These criteria will be the
basis for review of the written proposals and optional interview session. At discretion of
the City, interviews of top rated firms may be held.
The rating scale shall be from 1 to 5, with 1 being a poor rating, 3 being an average
rating, and 5 being an outstanding rating.
WEIGHTING
FACTOR
QUALIFICATION STANDARD
2.0 Scope of Proposal
Does the proposal show an understanding of
the project objective, methodology to be used
and results that are desired from the project?
2.0
Assigned
Personnel
Do the persons who will be working on the
project have the necessary skills? Are
sufficient people of the requisite skills assigned
to the project?
1.0 Availability
Can the work be completed in the necessary
time? Can the target start and completion
dates be met? Are other qualified personnel
available to assist in meeting the project
schedule if required? Is the project team
available to attend meetings as required by the
Scope of Work?
1.0 Motivation
Is the firm interested and are they capable of
doing the work in the required time frame?
2.0
Cost and
Work Hours
Do the proposed cost and work hours compare
favorably with the project Manager's estimate?
Are the work hours presented reasonable for
the effort required in each project task or
phase?
2.0 Firm Capability
Does the firm have the support capabilities the
assigned personnel require? Has the firm
done previous projects of this type and scope?
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 10 of 34
REFERENCE EVALUATION (TOP RATED FIRM)
The project Manager will check references using the following criteria. The evaluation
rankings will be labeled Satisfactory/Unsatisfactory.
QUALIFICATION STANDARD
Overall Performance
Would you hire this Professional again? Did
they show the skills required by this project?
Timetable
Was the original Scope of Work completed
within the specified time? Were interim
deadlines met in a timely manner?
Completeness
Was the Professional responsive to client needs;
did the Professional anticipate problems? Were
problems solved quickly and effectively?
Budget
Was the original Scope of Work completed
within the project budget?
Job Knowledge
a) If a study, did it meet the Scope of Work?
b) If Professional administered a construction
contract, was the project functional upon
completion and did it operate properly?
Were problems corrected quickly and
effectively?
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 11 of 34
PROFESSIONAL (WORK ORDER) SERVICES AGREEMENT
THIS AGREEMENT is made and entered into this _______day of ______, by
and between THE NORTH FRONT RANGE TRANSPORTATION AND AIR QUALITY
PLANNING COUNCIL (the "MPO") and ____________________ ("Professional").
In consideration of the mutual covenants and obligations herein expressed, it is
agreed by and between the parties hereto as follows:
1. Scope of Services. Professional shall perform transportation
planning/engineering type tasks and related work as needed, as described in Request
for Proposal, Exhibit A, Scope of Services. The scope of services to be performed
pursuant to this Agreement shall be performed in accordance with the Work Schedule
stated on each Work Order, a sample of which is attached hereto as Exhibit B and
incorporated herein by this reference. The MPO reserves the right to independently bid
any project rather than issuing a Work Order to the Professional for the same pursuant
to this Agreement.
2. Time. The services to be performed pursuant to this Agreement shall be
initiated as specified on each Work Order. Time is of the essence. Any extensions of
any time limit must be agreed upon in writing by the parties hereto.
3. Term. This Agreement shall commence on ______________ and shall
continue in full force and effect until ___________, unless terminated sooner as herein
provided. In addition, at the option of the MPO, the Agreement may be extended for
additional one year periods not to exceed four (4) additional one year periods. Pricing
changes shall be negotiated by and agreed to by both parties. The Denver Boulder
Greeley CPIU published by the Colorado State Planning and Budget Office will be used
as a guide. Written notice of renewal shall be provided to Professional and mailed no
later than ninety (90) days prior to contract end.
4. Default. Each and every term and condition hereof shall be deemed to be
a material element of this Agreement. In the event either party should fail or refuse to
perform according to the terms of this agreement, such party may be declared in
default, and this Agreement may be terminated.
5. Early Termination by MPO. Notwithstanding the time periods contained
herein, the MPO may terminate this Agreement at any time for the MPO's convenience
or because of the failure of Professional to fulfill the contract obligations. The MPO
shall terminate by providing at least fifteen (15) days prior written notice of termination
by delivering to Professional a notice of termination specifying the nature, extent, and
effective date of the termination. Upon receipt of the notice, Professional shall
immediately discontinue all services affected (unless the notice directs otherwise) and
deliver to the MPO all data, drawings, specifications, reports, estimates, summaries,
and other information and materials accumulated in performing this contract, whether
completed or in process. If the termination is for convenience, the MPO shall make an
equitable adjustment in the contract price but shall allow no anticipated profit on
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 12 of 34
unperformed services. If the termination is for failure of Professional to fulfill the contract
obligations, the MPO may complete the work and Professional shall be liable for any
additional cost incurred by the MPO. If, after termination for failure to fulfill contract
obligations, it is determined that Professional was not in default, the rights and
obligations of the parties shall be the same as if the termination had been issued for the
convenience of the MPO.
6. Opportunity to Cure. In the case of a breach or default, the MPO may, in
its sole discretion, allow Professional a period of time in which to cure the defect. In
such case, the notice of termination shall state the time period in which cure is permitted
and other appropriate conditions. If Professional fails to remedy to the MPO's
satisfaction the breach or default or any of the terms, covenants, or conditions of this
Agreement within ten (10) days after receipt by Professional of written notice from the
MPO setting forth the nature of said breach or default, the MPO may terminate the
Agreement without any further obligation to Professional and seek damages, may treat
the Agreement as continuing and require specific performance, or may avail itself of any
other remedy at law or equity. If the MPO commences legal or equitable actions
against Professional, Professional shall be liable to the MPO for the MPO's reasonable
attorney fees and costs incurred because of the default. Any such termination for
default shall not in any way operate to preclude the MPO from also pursuing all
available remedies against Professional and its sureties for said breach or default.
7. Waiver of Remedies for any Breach. If the MPO elects to waive its
remedies for any breach by Professional of any covenant, term or condition of this
Agreement, such waiver by the MPO shall not limit the MPO's remedies for any
succeeding breach of that or of any other term, covenant, or condition of this
Agreement.
8. Responsibility. Professional shall be responsible for the professional
quality, technical accuracy, timely completion and the coordination of all services
rendered by the Professional, including but not limited to designs, plans, reports,
specifications, and drawings and shall, without additional compensation, promptly
remedy and correct any errors, omissions, or other deficiencies.
9. Indemnification. Professional shall indemnify, hold harmless and defend
the MPO and its representatives, officers, employees, agents, and contractors from and
against all liabilities, penalties, costs, losses, damages, expenses, causes of action,
claims, demands, or judgments, including, without limitation, reasonable attorney fees,
arising from or in any way connected with injury to or the death of any person or
physical damage to any property resulting from any act, omission, condition, or other
matter related to this Agreement.
10. Insurance. Professional shall maintain commercial general liability
insurance in the amount of $500,000 combined single limits, and errors and omissions
insurance in the amount of $1,000,000.
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 13 of 34
11. Compensation. In consideration of the services to be performed pursuant to this
Agreement, the MPO agrees to pay Professional on a time and reimbursable direct cost
basis designated in Exhibit C, attached hereto and incorporated herein by this
reference. At the election of the MPO, each Work Order may contain a maximum fee,
which shall be negotiated by the parties hereto for each such Work Order. Monthly
invoices are required and shall include a description of services performed, along with
number of hours and stated rates per hour. Supporting documentation shall also be
submitted for any reimbursable direct costs. The amounts of all such billings shall be
based upon the Professional's MPO-verified progress in completing the services to be
performed pursuant to the Scope of Services on each Work Order and upon approval of
the Professional's direct reimbursable expenses. Final payment shall be made following
acceptance of the work by the MPO.
12. Records and Reports. The MPO and Professional shall maintain all
books, records, and other documentation pertaining to the Scope of Services and
necessary to completely substantiate all costs incurred and billed to the MPO during the
term of this Agreement for a period of three (3) years from the date of final payment
under the terms of this Agreement. These records shall be made available for
inspection and audit to any state or federal authority authorized to inspect such records
and copies thereof shall be furnished at the expense of Professional, if so requested.
13. Ownership of Work Product. Upon final payment, all designs, plans,
reports, specifications, drawings, and other services rendered by Professional shall
become the sole property of the MPO, which shall have the royalty-free, nonexclusive
and irrevocable right to reproduce, publish, or otherwise use and authorize others to use
all such materials for authorized government purposes. Other entities that may
reproduce, publish, or otherwise use the designs, plans, reports, specifications,
drawings, and other services rendered by Professional include but are not limited to the
Colorado Department of Transportation ("CDOT"), the Federal Transportation
Administration ("FTA"), and the Federal Highway Administration ("FHWA").
14. MPO Representative. The MPO shall designate, prior to commencement
of work, its project representative who shall make, within the scope of his or her
authority, all necessary and proper decisions with reference to the project. All requests
for contract interpretations, change orders, and other clarification or instruction shall be
directed to the MPO Representative.
15. Project Documents. Upon conclusion of the project and before final
payment, the Professional shall provide the MPO with reproducible documents of the
project containing accurate information on the project as designed. Documents shall be
of archival quality, and also available in an electronic format, in an agreed upon format.
16. Monthly Report. Commencing at the end of the calendar month following
the date of execution of this Agreement and every calendar month end thereafter,
Professional shall provide the MPO with a written report of the status of the work.
Failure to provide any required monthly report may, at the option of the MPO, suspend
the processing of any partial payment request.
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 14 of 34
17. Independent Contractor. The services to be performed by Professional
are those of an independent contractor and not of an employee of the MPO. The MPO
shall not be responsible for withholding any portion of Professional's compensation
hereunder for the payment of FICA, Workers' Compensation, other taxes or benefits or
for any other purpose.
18. Personal Services. It is understood that the MPO enters into this
Agreement based on the special abilities of Professional and that this Agreement shall
be considered as an agreement for personal services. Accordingly, Professional shall
neither assign any responsibilities nor delegate any duties, nor create any subcontracts
arising under this Agreement without the prior written consent of the MPO.
19. Conflict of Interests and Prohibited Interests. The MPO and
Professional represent that neither has any interests and shall not acquire any interests,
directly or indirectly, that would conflict in any manner or degree with the performance
and services required to be performed under this Agreement. The MPO and
Professional further represent that no member or delegate to the Congress of the
United States shall be admitted to any share or part of this Agreement or to any benefit
arising therefrom. In addition no employee, officer, or agent of the MPO shall
participate in selection or in the award or administration of this Agreement if a conflict of
interest, real or apparent, would be involved. Such conflict would arise when the
employee, officer or agent; any member of his immediate family; his or her partner; or
an organization which employs, or is about to employ any of the foregoing, has a
financial or other interest in the firm selected for award. The MPO's officers,
employees, or agents shall neither solicit nor accept gratuities, favors or anything of
monetary value from contractors, potential contractors, or parties of subagreements.
20. No Waiver. The MPO's approval of drawings, designs, plans,
specifications, reports, and incidental work or materials furnished hereunder shall not in
any way relieve the Professional of responsibility for the quality or technical accuracy of
the work. The MPO's approval or acceptance of, or payment for, any of the services
shall not be construed to operate as a waiver of any rights or benefits provided to the
MPO under this Agreement.
21. No Government Obligation to Third Parties. The MPO and Professional
acknowledge and agree that, notwithstanding any concurrence by the federal
government in or approval of the solicitation or award of the underlying contract, absent
the express written consent by the federal government, the federal government is not a
party to this Agreement and shall not be subject to any obligations or liabilities to the
MPO, Professional, or any other party (whether or not a party to this Agreement)
pertaining to any matter resulting from this Agreement.
22. Notices. All notices provided under this Agreement shall be effective
when mailed, postage prepaid and sent to the following addresses:
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 15 of 34
Professional:
Professional
Address 1
Address 2
City, State, Zip
MPO:
THE NFRT & AQPC
Attn: Suzette Mallette
419 Canyon Avenue, Suite 300
Fort Collins, CO 80521
With Copy to:
City of Fort Collins
Purchasing
PO Box 580
Ft Collins, CO 80522
23. Incorporation of FTA Terms. This Agreement includes certain Standard
Terms and Conditions required by the federal Department of Transportation ("DOT")
and other federal and state authorities, whether or not expressly set forth in this
Agreement. All contractual provisions required by DOT, as set forth in FTA Circular
4220.1F, dated November 1, 2008, are hereby incorporated by reference. Anything to
the contrary herein notwithstanding, all FTA mandated terms shall be deemed to
control in the event of a conflict with other provisions contained in this Agreement.
Professional shall not perform any act, fail to perform any act, or refuse to comply with
any the MPO requests which would cause the MPO to be in violation of the FTA terms
and conditions.
24. Grant Assurances and Federal Requirements. This Agreement involves
the expenditure of federal funds, which requires the MPO and Professional at all times
during the execution of this Agreement to adhere to and comply with all applicable
federal laws and regulations, as they currently exist and may hereafter be amended,
which are incorporated herein by this reference as terms and conditions of this
Agreement. A non-exhaustive list of federal laws and regulations that may be
applicable is included below. By signing this Agreement, Professional avers that it is
his or her responsibility to be aware of the requirements that may be imposed by the
following federal laws and regulations, and others not listed, that he or she is aware of
any such requirements, and that he or she will comply with all applicable laws and
regulations.
a. Laws and regulations prohibiting false claims and statements from
being made to the federal government, 31 U.S.C.A § 3801, et seq., 49 C.F.R.
Part 31, and 18 U.S.C.A. § 1001;
b. Federal privacy law, 5 U.S.C.A. § 552;
c. Nondiscrimination and equal employment opportunity laws in
accordance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, 42 U.S.C.A. § 2000d; § 303 of the
Age Discrimination Act of 1975, 42 U.S.C.A. § 6102; § 202 of the Americans with
Disabilities Act of 1990, 42 U.S.C.A. § 12132 ("ADA"); and Federal transit law, 49
U.S.C.A. § 5332;
d. Mandatory standards and policies relating to energy efficiency that
are contained in the state energy conservation plan issued in compliance with the
Energy Policy and Conservation Act, 42 U.S.C.A. § 6201.
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 16 of 34
25. Binding Effect. This Agreement, together with the exhibits hereto,
constitutes the entire agreement between the parties and shall be binding upon said
parties, their officers, employees, agents and assigns and shall inure to the benefit of
the respective survivors, heirs, personal representatives, successors and assigns of
said parties.
26. Governing Law. The laws of the State of Colorado shall govern the
construction, interpretation, execution and enforcement of this Agreement.
27. Severability. In the event any provision of this Agreement shall be held
invalid or unenforceable by any court of competent jurisdiction, such holding shall not
invalidate or render unenforceable any other provision of this Agreement.
28. Prohibition Against Employing Illegal Aliens. This paragraph shall apply to
all Professionals whose performance of work under this Agreement does not involve the
delivery of a specific end product other than reports that are merely incidental to the
performance of said work. Pursuant to Section 8-17.5-101, C.R.S., et. seq.,
Professional represents and agrees that:
a. As of the date of this Agreement:
1. Professional does not knowingly employ or contract with an
illegal alien; and
2. Professional has participated or attempted to participate in the
basic pilot employment verification program created in Public Law
208, 104th Congress, as amended, and expanded in Public Law
156, 108th Congress, as amended, administered by the United
States Department of Homeland Security (the “Basic Pilot
Program”) in order to confirm the employment eligibility of all newly
hired employees.
b. Professional shall not knowingly employ or contract with an illegal
alien to perform work under this Agreement or knowingly enter into a contract
with a subcontractor that knowingly employs or contracts with an illegal alien to
perform work under this Agreement.
c. Professional shall continue to apply to participate in the Basic Pilot
Program and shall in writing verify same every three (3) calendar months
thereafter, until Contractor is accepted or the public contract for services has
been completed, whichever is earlier. The requirements of this section shall not
be required or effective if the Basic Pilot Program is discontinued.
d. Professional is prohibited from using Basic Pilot Program
procedures to undertake pre-employment screening of job applicants while this
Agreement is being performed.
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 17 of 34
e. If Professional obtains actual knowledge that a subcontractor
performing work under this Agreement knowingly employs or contracts with an
illegal alien, Professional shall:
1. Notify such subcontractor and the MPO within three days
that Professional has actual knowledge that the subcontractor is
employing or contracting with an illegal alien; and
2. Terminate the subcontract with the subcontractor if within
three days of receiving the notice required pursuant to this section the
subcontractor does not cease employing or contracting with the illegal
alien; except that Professional shall not terminate the contract with the
subcontractor if during such three days the subcontractor provides
information to establish that the subcontractor has not knowingly
employed or contracted with an illegal alien.
f. Professional shall comply with any reasonable request by the
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment (the “Department”) made in the
course of an investigation that the Department undertakes or is undertaking
pursuant to the authority established in Subsection 8-17.5-102 (5), C.R.S.
g. If Professional violates any provision of this Agreement pertaining
to the duties imposed by Subsection 8-17.5-102, C.R.S. the MPO may terminate
this Agreement. If this Agreement is so terminated, Professional shall be liable
for actual and consequential damages to the MPO arising out of Professional’s
violation of Subsection 8-17.5-102, C.R.S.
h. The MPO will notify the Office of the Secretary of State if
Professional violates this provision of this Agreement and the MPO terminates
the Agreement for such breach.
29. Special Provisions. Special provisions or conditions relating to federal
patent law and rights in data that are applicable to this Agreement are set forth in
Exhibit D, attached hereto and incorporated herein by this reference.
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 18 of 34
THE NORTH FRONT RANGE TRANSPORTATION
AND AIR QUALITY PLANNING COUNCIL (MPO)
_________________________________
Cliff Davidson, Executive Director
PROFESSIONAL:
By: __________________________________
Title: _______________________________
STATE OF COLORADO )
) ss.
COUNTY OF )
The foregoing instrument was subscribed, sworn to and acknowledged before
me this day of , 200 , by _______________ [as ___________ of
___________.]
My commission expires: _____________
(S E A L)
________________________________
____
Notary Public
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 19 of 34
EXHIBIT A
Scope of Services
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 20 of 34
EXHIBIT B
WORK ORDER FORM
PURSUANT TO AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE NORTH FRONT RANGE TRANSPORTATION AND AIR QUALITY PLANNING
COUNCIL
AND
_____________________________________________
DATED: _____________
Work Order Number: _________________________________________________
Purchase Order Number: _____________________________________________
Project Title: _______________________________________________________
Commencement Date: _______________________________________________
Completion Date: ____________________________________________________
Maximum Fee (time and reimbursable direct costs) not to exceed: _______________
Project Description: ____________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
Scope of Services: ______________________________________________________
Acceptance ________________________________
User
Professional agrees to perform the services
identified above and on the attached forms in
accordance with the terms and conditions
contained herein and in the Professional
Services Agreement between the parties. In the
event of a conflict between or ambiguity in the
terms of the Professional Services Agreement
and this work order (including the attached
forms) the Professional Services Agreement
shall control.
PROFESSIONAL
By:_____________________________
Date:____________________________
The attached forms consisting of ___ (_) pages
are hereby accepted and incorporated herein, by
this reference, and Notice to Proceed is hereby
given.
THE NORTH FRONT RANGE
TRANSPORTATION AND AIR QUALITY
PLANNING COUNCIL
By:_____________________________
Date:____________________________
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 21 of 34
EXHIBIT C
COMPENSATION RATES
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 22 of 34
EXHIBIT D - Federal Patent and Rights in Data
37 C.F.R. Part 401,49 C.F.R. Parts 18 and 19
The FTA patent clause is substantially similar to the text of 49 C.F.R. Part 19, Appendix
A, § 5, but the rights in data clause reflects FTA objectives. For patent rights, FTA is
governed by Federal law and regulation. For data rights, the text on copyrights is
insufficient to meet FTA's purposes for awarding research grants. This model clause,
with larger rights ,as a standard, is proposed with the understanding that this standard
could be modified to FTA's needs.
CONTRACTS INVOLVING EXPERIMENTAL, DEVELOPMENTAL, OR RESEARCH
WORK.
A. Rights in Data.
(1) The term "subject data" means recorded information, whether or not copyrighted,
that is delivered or specified to be delivered under this Agreement. The term includes
graphic or pictorial delineation in media such as drawings or photographs; text in
specifications or related performance or design-type documents; machine forms such
as punched cards, magnetic tape, or computer memory printouts; and information
retained in computer memory. Examples include, but are not limited to: computer
software, engineering drawings and associated lists, specifications, standards, process
sheets, manuals, technical reports, catalog item identifications, and related information.
The term "subject data" does not include financial reports, cost analyses, and similar
information incidental to contract administration.
(2) The following restrictions apply to all subject data first produced in the
performance of the contract to which this Attachment has been added:
(a) Except for its own internal use, Professional may not publish or reproduce
subject data in whole or in part, or in any manner or form, nor may Professional
authorize others to do so, without the written consent of the Federal Government, until
such time as the Federal Government may have either released or approved the
release of such data to the public; this restriction on publication, however, does not
apply to any contract with an academic institution.
(b) In accordance with 49 C.F.R. 18.34 and 49 C.F.R. 19.36, the Federal
Government reserves a royalty-free, non-exclusive and irrevocable license to
reproduce, publish, or otherwise use, and to authorize others to use, for "Federal
Government purposes," any subject data or copyright described in subsections (2)(b)l
and (2)(b)2 below. As used in the previous sentence, "for Federal Government
purposes," means use only for the direct purposes of the Federal Government. Without
the copyright owner's consent, the Federal Government may not extend its Federal
license to any other party.
1. Any subject data developed under this Agreement, whether or not a copyright
has been obtained; and
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 23 of 34
2. Any rights of copyright purchased by Professional using Federal assistance in
whole or in part provided by FTA.
(c) When FTA awards Federal assistance for experimental, developmental, or
research work, it is FTA's general intention to increase transportation knowledge
available to the public, rather than to restrict the benefits resulting from the work to
participants in that work. Therefore, unless FTA determines otherwise, Professional
performing experimental, developmental, or research work required by this Agreement
agrees to permit FTA to make available to the public, either FTA's license in the
copyright to any subject data developed in the course of that contract, or a copy of the
subject data first produced under the contract for which a copyright has not been
obtained. If the experimental, developmental, or research work, which is the subject of
the underlying contract, is not completed for any reason whatsoever, all data developed
under that contract shall become subject data as defined in subsection (a) of this clause
and shall be delivered as the Federal Government may direct. This subsection (c),
however, does not apply to adaptations of automatic data processing equipment or
programs for Professional's use whose costs are financed in whole or in part with
Federal assistance provided by FTA for transportation capital projects.
(d) Unless prohibited by state law, upon request by the Federal Government, the
MPO and Professional agree to indemnify, save, and hold harmless the Federal
Government, its officers, agents, and employees acting within the scope of their official
duties against any liability, including costs and expenses, resulting from any willful or
intentional violation by the MPO or Professional of proprietary rights, copyrights, or right
of privacy, arising out of the publication, translation, reproduction, delivery, use, or
disposition of any data furnished under that contract. Neither the MPO nor Professional
shall be required to indemnify the Federal Government for any such liability arising out
of the wrongful act of any employee, official, or agents of the Federal Government.
(e) Nothing contained herein shall imply a license to the Federal Government under
any patent or be construed as affecting the scope of any license or other right otherwise
granted to the Federal Government under any patent.
(f) Data developed by Professional and financed entirely without using Federal
assistance provided by the Federal Government that has been incorporated into work
required by the underlying contract to which this Attachment has been added is exempt
from the requirements of subsections (b), (c), and (d) of this clause, provided that
Professional identifies that data in writing at the time of delivery of the contract work.
(g) Unless FTA determines otherwise, Professional agrees to include these
requirements in each subcontract for experimental, developmental, or research work
financed in whole or in part with Federal assistance provided by FTA.
(3) Unless the Federal Government later makes a contrary determination in writing,
irrespective of Professional's status (i.e., a large business, small business, state
government or state instrumentality, local government, nonprofit organization, institution
of higher education, individual, etc.), the MPO and Professional agree to take the
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 24 of 34
necessary actions to provide, through FTA, those rights in that invention due the
Federal Government as described in U.S. Department of Commerce regulations,
"Rights to Inventions Made by Nonprofit Organizations and Small Business Firms Under
Government Grants, Contracts and Cooperative Agreements," 37 C.F.R. Part 401.
(4) Professional agrees to include these requirements in each subcontract for
experimental, developmental, or research work financed in whole or in part with
Federal assistance provided by FTA.
B. Patent Rights:
(1) If any invention, improvement, or discovery is conceived or first actually reduced
to practice in the course of or under this Agreement, and that invention, improvement,
or discovery is patentable under the laws of the United States of America or any
foreign country, Professional agrees to take actions necessary to provide immediate
notice and a detailed report to the party at a higher tier until FTA is ultimately notified.
(2) Unless the Federal Government later makes a contrary determination in writing,
irrespective of Professional's status (a large business, small business, state
government or state instrumentality, local government, nonprofit organization,
institution of higher education, individual), Professional agrees to take the necessary
actions to provide, through FTA, those rights in that invention due the Federal
Government as described in U.S. Department of Commerce regulations, "Rights to
Inventions Made by Nonprofit Organizations and Small Business Firms Under
Government Grants, Contracts and Cooperative Agreements," 37 C.F.R. Part 401.
(3) Professional agrees to include the requirements of this clause in each
subcontract for experimental, developmental, or research work financed in whole or in
part with Federal assistance provided by FTA.
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 25 of 34
EXHIBIT E
AFFIDAVIT PURSUANT TO C.R.S. 24-76.5-103
I, __________________, swear or affirm under penalty of perjury under the laws
of the State of Colorado that (check one):
___ I am a United States citizen, or
___ I am a Permanent Resident of the United States, or
___ I am lawfully present in the United States pursuant to Federal law.
I understand that this sworn statement is required by law because I have applied
for a public benefit. I understand that state law requires me to provide proof that I
am lawfully present in the United States prior to receipt of this public benefit. I
further acknowledge that making a false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or
representation in this sworn affidavit is punishable under the criminal laws of
Colorado as perjury in the second degree under Colorado Revised Statute 18-8-
503 and it shall constitute a separate criminal offense each time a public benefit
is fraudulently received.
___________________________ _______________
Signature Date
INTERNAL USE ONLY Valid forms of identification
---current Colorado driver’s license, minor driver’s license, probationary driver’s license, commercial driver’s
license, restricted driver’s license, instruction permit
---current Colorado identification card
---U.S. military card or dependent identification card
---U.S. coast guard merchant mariner card
---Native American tribal document
The following forms of identification may be accepted through February 28, 2007*
---original birth certificate from any state of the United States
---certificate verifying naturalized status by U.S. with photo and raised seal
---certificate verifying U.S. citizenship by U.S. government, e.g., U.S. passport
---order of adoption by a U.S. court with seal of certification
---valid driver’s license from any state of the U.S. or the Dist. of Columbia excluding AK, HI, IL, MD, MI, NE,
NM, NC, OR, TN, TX, UT, VT and WI
---valid immigration documents demonstrating lawful presence, e.g., current foreign passport with current I-
551 stamp or visa, current foreign passport with I-94, I-94 with asylum status, unexpired Resident Alien card,
Permanent Resident card or Employment Authorization card
*A waiver may be available where no identification exists or can be obtained due to a medical condition,
homelessness, or insufficient documentation to receive a Colorado I.D. or driver’s license. Contact your
department director.
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 26 of 34
FEDERAL TRANSIT ADMINISTRATION
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Federally Required and Other Model Contract Clauses
1. NO GOVERNMENT OBLIGATION TO THIRD PARTIES.............................................................. 27
2. PROGRAM FRAUD AND FALSE OR FRAUDULENT STATEMENTS AND RELATED ACTS .... 27
3. ACCESS TO RECORDS AND REPORTS..................................................................................... 27
4. FEDERAL CHANGES ................................................................................................................... 28
5. TERMINATION.............................................................................................................................. 29
6. CIVIL RIGHTS REQUIREMENTS.................................................................................................. 30
7. DISADVANTAGED BUSINESS ENTERPRISE (DBE) .................................................................. 31
8. INCORPORATION OF FEDERAL TRANSIT ADMINISTRATION (FTA) TERMS.......................... 32
9. GOVERNMENT-WIDE DEBARMENT AND SUSPENSION (NONPROCUREMENT).................... 32
10. FLY AMERICA REQUIREMENTS................................................................................................. 33
11. ENERGY CONSERVATION REQUIREMENTS............................................................................. 33
12. CITY OF FORT COLLINS BID PROTEST PROCEDURES........................................................... 34
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 27 of 34
1. NO GOVERNMENT OBLIGATION TO THIRD PARTIES
No Obligation by the Federal Government.
(1) The Purchaser and Contractor acknowledge and agree that, notwithstanding any
concurrence by the Federal Government in or approval of the solicitation or award of the
underlying contract, absent the express written consent by the Federal Government, the Federal
Government is not a party to this contract and shall not be subject to any obligations or liabilities
to the Purchaser, Contractor, or any other party (whether or not a party to that contract)
pertaining to any matter resulting from the underlying contract.
(2) The Contractor agrees to include the above clause in each subcontract financed in whole or
in part with Federal assistance provided by FTA. It is further agreed that the clause shall not be
modified, except to identify the subcontractor who will be subject to its provisions.
2. PROGRAM FRAUD AND FALSE OR FRAUDULENT STATEMENTS AND RELATED
ACTS
Program Fraud and False or Fraudulent Statements or Related Acts.
(1) The Contractor acknowledges that the provisions of the Program Fraud Civil Remedies Act
of 1986, as amended, 31 U.S.C. § 3801 et seq. and U.S. DOT regulations, "Program Fraud Civil
Remedies," 49 C.F.R. Part 31, apply to its actions pertaining to this Project. Upon execution of
the underlying contract, the Contractor certifies or affirms the truthfulness and accuracy of any
statement it has made, it makes, it may make, or causes to be made, pertaining to the
underlying contract or the FTA assisted project for which this contract work is being performed.
In addition to other penalties that may be applicable, the Contractor further acknowledges that if
it makes, or causes to be made, a false, fictitious, or fraudulent claim, statement, submission, or
certification, the Federal Government reserves the right to impose the penalties of the Program
Fraud Civil
Remedies Act of 1986 on the Contractor to the extent the Federal Government deems
appropriate.
(2) The Contractor also acknowledges that if it makes, or causes to be made, a false, fictitious,
or fraudulent claim, statement, submission, or certification to the Federal Government under a
contract connected with a project that is financed in whole or in part with Federal assistance
originally awarded by FTA under the authority of 49 U.S.C. § 5307, the Government reserves
the right to impose the penalties of 18 U.S.C. § 1001 and 49 U.S.C. § 5307(n)(1) on the
Contractor, to the extent the Federal Government deems appropriate.
(3) The Contractor agrees to include the above two clauses in each subcontract financed in
whole or in part with Federal assistance provided by FTA. It is further agreed that the clauses
shall not be modified, except to identify the subcontractor who will be subject to the provisions.
3. ACCESS TO RECORDS AND REPORTS
Access to Records - The following access to records requirements apply to this Contract:
A. Where the Purchaser is not a State but a local government and is the FTA Recipient or a
subgrantee of the FTA Recipient in accordance with 49 C.F.R. 18.36(i), the Contractor
agrees to provide the Purchaser, the FTA Administrator, the Comptroller General of the
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 28 of 34
United States or any of their authorized representatives access to any books,
documents, papers and records of the Contractor which are directly pertinent to this
contract for the purposes of making audits, examinations, excerpts and transcriptions.
Contractor also agrees, pursuant to 49 C.F.R. 633.17 to provide the FTA Administrator
or his authorized representatives including any PMO Contractor access to Contractor's
records and construction sites pertaining to a major capital project, defined at 49 U.S.C.
5302(a)1, which is receiving federal financial assistance through the programs described
at 49 U.S.C. 5307, 5309 or 5311.
B. The Contractor agrees to permit any of the foregoing parties to reproduce by any means
whatsoever or to copy excerpts and transcriptions as reasonably needed.
C. The Contractor agrees to maintain all books, records, accounts and reports required
under this contract for a period of not less than three years after the date of termination
or expiration of this contract, except in the event of litigation or settlement of claims
arising from the performance of this contract, in which case Contractor agrees to
maintain same until the Purchaser, the FTA Administrator, the Comptroller General, or
any of their duly authorized representatives, have disposed of all such litigation, appeals,
claims or exceptions related thereto. Reference 49 CFR 18.39(i)(11).
D. FTA does not require the inclusion of these requirements in subcontracts.
Requirements for Access to Records and Reports by Types of Contract
Contract
Characteristics
Operational
Service
Contract
Turnkey Construction Architectural
Engineering
Acquisition
of Rolling
Stock
Professional Services
I State Grantees
a. Contracts below SAT
($100,000)
b. Contracts above
$100,000/Capital
Projects
None
None
unless1
non-
competitive
award
Those
imposed on
state pass
thru to
Contractor
None
Yes, if non-
competitive
award or if
funded thru2
5307/5309/5
311
None
None unless
non-
competitive
award
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 29 of 34
promulgated from time to time during the term of this contract. Contractor's failure to so comply
shall constitute a material breach of this contract.
5. TERMINATION
a. Termination for Convenience (General Provision) The City may terminate
this contract, in whole or in part, at any time by written notice to the Contractor when it is in the
Government's best interest. The Contractor shall be paid its costs, including contract close-out
costs, and profit on work performed up to the time of termination. The Contractor shall promptly
submit its termination claim to the City to be paid the Contractor. If the Contractor has any
property in its possession belonging to the City, the Contractor will account for the same, and
dispose of it in the manner the City directs.
b. Termination for Default [Breach or Cause] (General Provision) If the Contractor
does not deliver supplies in accordance with the contract delivery schedule, or, if the contract is
for services, the Contractor fails to perform in the manner called for in the contract, or if the
Contractor fails to comply with any other provisions of the contract, the City may terminate this
contract for default. Termination shall be effected by serving a notice of termination on the
contractor setting forth the manner in which the Contractor is in default. The contractor will only
be paid the contract price for supplies delivered and accepted, or services performed in
accordance with the manner of performance set forth in the contract.
If it is later determined by the City that the Contractor had an excusable reason for not
performing, such as a strike, fire, or flood, events which are not the fault of or are beyond the
control of the Contractor, the City, after setting up a new delivery of performance schedule, may
allow the Contractor to continue work, or treat the termination as a termination for convenience.
c. Opportunity to Cure (General Provision) The City in its sole discretion may, in the
case of a termination for breach or default, allow the Contractor [an appropriately short period of
time] in which to cure the defect. In such case, the notice of termination will state the time
period in which cure is permitted and other appropriate conditions
If Contractor fails to remedy to the City’s satisfaction the breach or default of any of the terms,
covenants, or conditions of this Contract within [ten (10) days] after receipt by Contractor of
written notice from the City setting forth the nature of said breach or default, the City shall have
the right to terminate the Contract without any further obligation to Contractor. Any such
termination for default shall not in any way operate to preclude the City from also pursuing all
available remedies against Contractor and its sureties for said breach or default.
d. Waiver of Remedies for any Breach In the event that the City elects to waive its
remedies for any breach by Contractor of any covenant, term or condition of this Contract, such
waiver by the City shall not limit the City’s remedies for any succeeding breach of that or of any
other term, covenant, or condition of this Contract.
e. Termination for Convenience (Professional or Transit Service Contracts) The
City, by written notice, may terminate this contract, in whole or in part, when it is in the
Government's interest. If this contract is terminated, the City shall be liable only for payment
under the payment provisions of this contract for services rendered before the effective date of
termination.
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 30 of 34
f. Termination for Default (Supplies and Service) If the Contractor fails to deliver
supplies or to perform the services within the time specified in this contract or any extension or if
the Contractor fails to comply with any other provisions of this contract, the City may terminate
this contract for default. The City shall terminate by delivering to the Contractor a Notice of
Termination specifying the nature of the default. The Contractor will only be paid the contract
price for supplies delivered and accepted, or services performed in accordance with the manner
or performance set forth in this contract.
If, after termination for failure to fulfill contract obligations, it is determined that the
Contractor was not in default, the rights and obligations of the parties shall be the same as if the
termination had been issued for the convenience of the City.
The Contractor's right to proceed shall not be terminated nor the Contractor charged with
damages under this clause if-
1. the delay in completing the work arises from unforeseeable causes beyond
the control and without the fault or negligence of the Contractor. Examples of
such causes include: acts of God, acts of the Recipient, acts of another
Contractor in the performance of a contract with the Recipient, epidemics,
quarantine restrictions, strikes, freight embargoes; and
2. the contractor, within [10] days from the beginning of any delay, notifies the
City in writing of the causes of delay. If in the judgment of the City, the delay is
excusable, the time for completing the work shall be extended. The judgment of
the City shall be final and conclusive on the parties, but subject to appeal under
the Disputes clauses.
If, after termination of the Contractor's right to proceed, it is determined that the Contractor was
not in default, or that the delay was excusable, the rights and obligations of the parties will be
the same as if the termination had been issued for the convenience of the Recipient.
6. CIVIL RIGHTS REQUIREMENTS
Civil Rights - The following requirements apply to the underlying contract:
(1) Nondiscrimination - In accordance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, as amended, 42
U.S.C. § 2000d, section 303 of the Age Discrimination Act of 1975, as amended, 42 U.S.C. §
6102, section 202 of the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990, 42 U.S.C. § 12132, and
Federal transit law at 49 U.S.C. § 5332, the Contractor agrees that it will not discriminate
against any employee or applicant for employment because of race, color, creed, national
origin, sex, age, or disability. In addition, the Contractor agrees to comply with applicable
Federal implementing regulations and other implementing requirements FTA may issue.
(2) Equal Employment Opportunity - The following equal employment opportunity requirements
apply to the underlying contract:
(a) Race, Color, Creed, National Origin, Sex - In accordance with Title VII of the Civil
Rights Act, as amended, 42 U.S.C. § 2000e, and Federal transit laws at 49 U.S.C. §
5332, the Contractor agrees to comply with all applicable equal employment opportunity
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 31 of 34
requirements of U.S. Department of Labor (U.S. DOL) regulations, "Office of Federal
Contract Compliance Programs, Equal Employment Opportunity, Department of Labor,"
41 C.F.R. Parts 60 et seq., (which implement Executive Order No. 11246, "Equal
Employment Opportunity," as amended by Executive Order No. 11375, "Amending
Executive Order 11246 Relating to Equal Employment Opportunity," 42 U.S.C. § 2000e
note), and with any applicable Federal statutes, executive orders, regulations, and
Federal policies that may in the future affect construction activities undertaken in the
course of the Project. The Contractor agrees to take affirmative action to ensure that
applicants are employed, and that employees are treated during employment, without
regard to their race, color, creed, national origin, sex, or age. Such action shall include,
but not be limited to, the following: employment, upgrading, demotion or transfer,
recruitment or recruitment advertising, layoff or termination; rates of pay or other forms
of compensation; and selection for training, including apprenticeship. In addition, the
Contractor agrees to comply with any implementing requirements FTA may issue.
(b) Age - In accordance with section 4 of the Age Discrimination in Employment Act of
1967, as amended, 29 U.S.C. § § 623 and Federal transit law at 49 U.S.C. § 5332, the
Contractor agrees to refrain from discrimination against present and prospective
employees for reason of age. In addition, the Contractor agrees to comply with any
implementing requirements FTA may issue.
(c) Disabilities - In accordance with section 102 of the Americans with Disabilities Act, as
amended, 42 U.S.C. § 12112, the Contractor agrees that it will comply with the
requirements of U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, "Regulations to
Implement the Equal Employment Provisions of the Americans with Disabilities Act," 29
C.F.R. Part 1630, pertaining to employment of persons with disabilities. In addition, the
Contractor agrees to comply with any implementing requirements FTA may issue.
(3) The Contractor also agrees to include these requirements in each subcontract financed in
whole or in part with Federal assistance provided by FTA, modified only if necessary to identify
the affected parties.
7. DISADVANTAGED BUSINESS ENTERPRISE (DBE)
a. This contract is subject to the requirements of Title 49, Code of Federal Regulations,
Part 26, Participation by Disadvantaged Business Enterprises in Department of
Transportation Financial Assistance Programs. The national goal for participation of
Disadvantaged Business Enterprises (DBE) is 10%. The agency’s overall goal for DBE
participation is __ %.
b. The contractor shall not discriminate on the basis of race, color, national origin, or sex
in the performance of this contract. The contractor shall carry out applicable
requirements of 49 CFR Part 26 in the award and administration of this DOT-assisted
contract. Failure by the contractor to carry out these requirements is a material breach
of this contract, which may result in the termination of this contract or such other remedy
as City of Fort Collins deems appropriate. Each subcontract the contractor signs with
a subcontractor must include the assurance in this paragraph (see 49 CFR 26.13(b)).
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 32 of 34
{If no separate contract goal has been established, use the following} The
successful bidder/offeror will be required to report its DBE participation obtained through
race-neutral means throughout the period of performance.
d. The contractor is required to pay its subcontractors performing work related to this
contract for satisfactory performance of that work no later than 30 days after the
contractor’s receipt of payment for that work from the City of Fort Collins. In addition,
is required to return any retainage payments to those subcontractors within 30
days after incremental acceptance of the subcontractor’s work by the City of Fort
Collins and contractor’s receipt of the partial retainage payment related to the
subcontractor’s work.
e. The contractor must promptly notify City of Fort Collins whenever a DBE
subcontractor performing work related to this contract is terminated or fails to complete
its work, and must make good faith efforts to engage another DBE subcontractor to
perform at least the same amount of work. The contractor may not terminate any DBE
subcontractor and perform that work through its own forces or those of an affiliate
without prior written consent of City of Fort Collins.
8. INCORPORATION OF FEDERAL TRANSIT ADMINISTRATION (FTA) TERMS
Incorporation of Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Terms - The preceding provisions include,
in part, certain Standard Terms and Conditions required by DOT, whether or not expressly set
forth in the preceding contract provisions. All contractual provisions required by DOT, as set
forth in FTA Circular 4220.1E, are hereby incorporated by reference. Anything to the contrary
herein notwithstanding, all FTA mandated terms shall be deemed to control in the event of a
conflict with other provisions contained in this Agreement. The Contractor shall not perform any
act, fail to perform any act, or refuse to comply with any (name of grantee) requests which
would cause (name of grantee) to be in violation of the FTA terms and conditions.
9. GOVERNMENT-WIDE DEBARMENT AND SUSPENSION (NONPROCUREMENT)
Background and Applicability
In conjunction with the Office of Management and Budget and other affected Federal agencies,
DOT published an update to 49 CFR Part 29 on November 26, 2003. This government-wide
regulation implements Executive Order 12549, Debarment and Suspension, Executive Order
12689, Debarment and Suspension, and 31 U.S.C. 6101 note (Section 2455, Public Law 103-
355, 108 Stat. 3327).
The provisions of Part 29 apply to all grantee contracts and subcontracts at any level expected
to equal or exceed $25,000 as well as any contract or subcontract (at any level) for Federally
required auditing services. 49 CFR 29.220(b). This represents a change from prior practice in
that the dollar threshold for application of these rules has been lowered from $100,000 to
$25,000. These are contracts and subcontracts referred to in the regulation as “covered
transactions.”
Grantees, contractors, and subcontractors (at any level) that enter into covered transactions are
required to verify that the entity (as well as its principals and affiliates) they propose to contract
or subcontract with is not excluded or disqualified. They do this by (a) Checking the Excluded
Parties List System, (b) Collecting a certification from that person, or (c) Adding a clause or
condition to the contract or subcontract. This represents a change from prior practice in that
certification is still acceptable but is no longer required. 49 CFR 29.300.
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 33 of 34
Grantees, contractors, and subcontractors who enter into covered transactions also must
require the entities they contract with to comply with 49 CFR 29, subpart C and include this
requirement in their own subsequent covered transactions (i.e., the requirement flows down to
subcontracts at all levels).
Clause Language
The following clause language is suggested, not mandatory. It incorporates the optional method
of verifying that contractors are not excluded or disqualified by certification.
Suspension and Debarment
This contract is a covered transaction for purposes of 49 CFR Part 29. As such, the
contractor is required to verify that none of the contractor, its principals, as defined at 49
CFR 29.995, or affiliates, as defined at 49 CFR 29.905, are excluded or disqualified as
defined at 49 CFR 29.940 and 29.945.
The contractor is required to comply with 49 CFR 29, Subpart C and must include the
requirement to comply with 49 CFR 29, Subpart C in any lower tier covered transaction it
enters into.
By signing and submitting its bid or proposal, the bidder or proposer certifies as follows:
The certification in this clause is a material representation of fact relied upon by {insert agency
name}. If it is later determined that the bidder or proposer knowingly rendered an erroneous
certification, in addition to remedies available to {insert agency name}, the Federal Government
may pursue available remedies, including but not limited to suspension and/or debarment. The
bidder or proposer agrees to comply with the requirements of 49 CFR 29, Subpart C while this
offer is valid and throughout the period of any contract that may arise from this offer. The bidder
or proposer further agrees to include a provision requiring such compliance in its lower tier
covered transactions.
10. FLY AMERICA REQUIREMENTS
The Contractor agrees to comply with 49 U.S.C. 40118 (the “Fly America” Act) in accordance
with the General Services Administration’s regulations at 41 CFR Part 301-10, which provide
that recipients and subrecipients of Federal funds and their contractors are required to use U.S.
Flag air carriers for U.S Government-financed international air travel and transportation of their
personal effects or property, to the extent such service is available, unless travel by foreign air
carrier is a matter of necessity, as defined by the Fly America Act. The Contractor shall submit,
if a foreign air carrier was used, an appropriate certification or memorandum adequately
explaining why service by a U.S. flag air carrier was not available or why it was necessary to
use a foreign air carrier and shall, in any event, provide a certificate of compliance with the Fly
America requirements. The Contractor agrees to include the requirements of this section in all
subcontracts that may involve international air transportation.
11. ENERGY CONSERVATION REQUIREMENTS
Energy Conservation - The contractor agrees to comply with mandatory standards and
policies relating to energy efficiency which are contained in the state energy conservation plan
issued in compliance with the Energy Policy and Conservation Act.
RFP 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Region Page 34 of 34
12. CITY OF FORT COLLINS BID PROTEST PROCEDURES
The City of Fort Collins has a protest procedure, covering any phase of solicitation or award,
including but not limited to specification or award. The protest procedures are available from
the Purchasing Department, City of Fort Collins, 215 N. Mason, Street, 2nd Floor, P. O. Box 580,
Fort Collins, CO. 80522. You may also request a copy of the procedures by emailing:
Purchasing@fcgov.com or calling 970-221-6775.
None
None unless
non-
competitive
award
None
None unless non-
competitive award
II Non State Grantees
a. Contracts below SAT
($100,000)
b. Contracts above
$100,000/Capital
Projects
Yes3
Yes3
Those
imposed on
non-state
Grantee pass
thru to
Contractor
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sources of Authority: 1 49 USC 5325 (a) 2 49 CFR 633.17 3 18 CFR 18.36 (i)
4. FEDERAL CHANGES
Federal Changes - Contractor shall at all times comply with all applicable FTA regulations,
policies, procedures and directives, including without limitation those listed directly or by
reference in the Master Agreement between Purchaser and FTA, as they may be amended or
Page 15
Addendum 1 - 7346 Demographic Forecast for NFRMPO Page 20 of 72