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HomeMy WebLinkAboutSTEVEN B FISHER PHD - CONTRACT - RFP - 7346 DEMOGRAPHIC FORECAST FOR NFRMPO (2)March 12, 2012 Mr. James B. O'Neill II Director of Purchasing and Risk Management City of Fort Collins Fort Collins, Colorado Dear Mr. O'Neill: We are pleased to submit this proposal in response to the requests for response to Proposal No. 7346, the 2040 Demographic Forecast for the North Front Range MPO. Jointly, our consulting team, consisting of Dr. Steven Fisher, Dr. Phyllis Resnick and AECOM, has more than thirty years of experience forecasting the state and Front Range regional economies. For this reason and others enumerated below we believe that our team is uniquely qualified to meet the needs of the organization in this forecasting effort. In the late 2000s, Wilson Kendall, the director of the Center for Business and Economic Forecasting (CBEF) and economist who completed the previous North Front Range 2035 forecast, retired and turned over his state and regional models to Drs. Fisher and Resnick. Since Mr. Kendall's retirement, Drs. Fisher and Resnick have been updating and running the CBEF models for multiple clients including the Center for Colorado's Economic Future, Xcel Energy and the Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG). It should be noted that a version of this model is also in use at the State Demographer's Office (SDO), ensuring that all models run by Drs. Fisher and Resnick are methodologically and theoretically consistent with those run by the SDO. Among the requests in Proposal 7346 is one for consistency with state, DRCOG, and previous North Front Range models. Only our consulting team can guarantee that level of consistency. Currently, Drs. Fisher and Resnick are completing the 2040 economic and demographic model update for DRCOG. The output from this model will serve as the regional and subarea control totals for the DRCOG migration to the new UrbanSim land use model. Dr. Fisher is the lead on the DRCOG project, and Dr. Resnick is uniquely familiar with the requirements for land use modeling as she served as the Regional Economist for DRCOG from the years 2008 — 2011 where she led the organization through the recommendation for transition to the UrbanSim modeling system. Dr. Resnick has been retained again by DRCOG to aid in the transition to a new in-house economics team and to support the current 2040 modeling efforts. Currently Dr. Fisher, in his role as the lead forecaster on the DRCOG model, is also leading and facilitating the task force of economists convened to inform the forecast effort. The core team of Drs. Fisher and Resnick will be supported in this effort by Bruce Meighen and his team at AECOM. AECOM will assist by preparing the preliminary sub regional control totals. These will be varied and modified by the lead consultant. Using the existing land use model, an employment and household capacity by income and job type (as well as anticipated timing), will be developed by subarea. AECOM's NFR MPO model includes a redevelopment component which will provide additional information. This effort will ensure a level of Computed the transaction fee necessary to fund debt service and administrative costs for rental car facilities at Denver International Airport. Cost of service studies for the Colorado Student Loan Program and the City of Westminster, Colorado. Cost and revenue from new development study for Aurora, Colorado. Building permit and development application fee study for Aurora, Colorado. Benchmark study of safety practices for Los Angeles Sanitation Department. Analysis of revenue audit risk for the City of Englewood. Assisted the National Research Center in estimating the long-term costs of the Older Americans Act in Colorado. Economic impact analysis of Cheyenne Frontier Days. Review of performance for City of Englewood's municipal code enforcement officers. Computation and documentation of unclaimed federal revenues for lV-E clients for the State of Colorado and District of Columbia. Finance Officer for Boulder Regional Emergency Telephone Service Authority. Analysis of paving vs. gravel costs for Boulder County. Allocation of Overhead and Administrative Costs for City and County of Denver; the City and County of Broomfield; the states of New Mexico and Montana; the Colorado cities of Boulder, Colorado Springs, Englewood, Golden, Westminster, and Thornton. The City of Billings, Montana. The Colorado Student Loan Program. The Colorado counties of Adams, Douglas, El Paso, Grand, Jefferson, Kiowa, Otero, San Miguel, Summit, and Teller. Los Alamos County, NM. Presentations Seminar on cost allocation for state transportation officials. AASHTO conference, Portland, Oregon, August, 1999. Cost Allocation: Old Fundamentals and New Directions. State of Montana Finance Officers, 1998, and Colorado Government Finance Officer's Association, September, 1996 What to Expect from Economic Change: Doing Fiscal Impact Studies. CGFOA, July, 1997. Budgeting Strategies. Colorado Municipal League, April, 1997. Making an Effective Budget Presentation. Colorado Fire Chiefs Association, December, 1995. Cost Accounting Techniques for Development Impact Fees. Effective Zoning Administration Techniques, Charlotte, NC, March, 1995. Setting Fees to Cover the Full Cost of Service. Colorado Governmental Finance Officer's Association, July, 1994. Phyllis A. Resnick, Ph. D. 2698 Hedgerow Circle/ Lafayette, CO 80026 R2analysis@comcast.n et1303.554.9292 Education Ph.D. Public Policy, University of Colorado -Denver, 2008 Dissertation Research: Do Tax and Expenditure Limitations Impede State Tax Reform Efforts? Dissertation Summary: An econometric exploration of the relationship between state level fiscal cap tax and expenditure limitations and the process and frequency with which states amend their tax codes. M.A. Economics, University of Colorado -Boulder, 1993 Fields: Natural Resource/Environmental Economics, Public Finance, Math/Econometrics, B.B.A. School of Business Administration, University of Michigan -Ann Arbor, 1987 Non -Degree Academic Work Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel, Program in Social Work, 1989 ■ Traveled the nation studying state operated and public/private sources of social service delivery and volunteered in immigrant and renewal communities Academic Awards 2006- Lincoln Institute of Land Policy Dissertation Fellowship 1996- Pi Alpha Alpha National Public Affairs Honor Society 1992- Reuben A. Zubrow Graduate Fellowship for the Teaching of Economics 1991 and 1992- University of Colorado Protected Class Doctoral Fellowship 1991- Department of Economics Cooperative Research Fellowship 1991- Dean's Small Grant, University of Colorado, Boulder 1989- Metrowest Community Fellowship to study abroad in Israel 1987- Beta Alpha Psi Honorary Accounting Fraternity Professional Experience Managing Director, R2 Analysis, LLC - Selected Projects (2005 to Present) Center for Colorado's Economic Future, Fiscal Sustainability Study • Lead economist on study assessing the fiscal health of the state government as requested by the State Legislature (SJR 10-02) • Developed and executed models to forecast the state economy and revenue system to 2025 • Co-authored report and presented findings at over 40 public meetings statewide including a Gubernatorial briefing Utah Foundation and Great Outdoors Colorado, Economic Impact Analyses • Multiplier studies of o The economic impact of the Intermountain Power Project on Utah's economy o The economic impact of the use of lottery funds for the development of recreational assets in 14 regions of Colorado Colorado Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting, Economic Consultant • Contributor to the Governor's quarterly economic forecast • Responsible for forecasting major macroeconomic variables as well as state revenue • Incorporated analysis of the importance of entrepreneurial activity to job creation in Colorado City and County of Denver, Revenue Sustainability, Study • Coded effort to analyze Denver's long-term revenue projections • Issued series of recommendations for long-term sustainability • These recommendations led directly to the Mayor's Blue Ribbon Revenue Commission Colorado Department of Transportation Revenue Model Project • Collaborated in the development of models to forecast transportation related revenues for the State of Colorado Developed model to forecast general and cash fund revenues for the purpose of projecting the probability of a general fund transfer to transportation (as per state law) Models will be transferred to Department of Transportation staff for use in annual long term revenue forecasts University of Denver, Economic Impact of Health Care Reform in Colorado • Served on a team of university researchers collaborating with the New America Foundation on a study evaluating the economic impact of health care reform in Colorado • Assessed a multiplier model of coverage expansion for its effect on the size of the Colorado economy State of Colorado Demographer's Office 2035 Economic and Demographic Forecast • Collaborated in the development of State of Colorado's long term forecast of population, employment and major macroeconomic indicators • Forecast serves as the basis for allocation of certain state funding and long term state demographic information Xcel Energy Economic Forecast • Member of a team of economists developing long term trend macroeconomic forecast used for utility rate setting Denver Regional Council of Governments • DRCOG retains Rz Analysis as its contract Regional Economist • Direct the DRCOG Socioeconomic Team of staff responsible for regional land use modeling, estimates programs, and general economic forecasting and modeling • Leading the team developing next generation land use model for the region • As per legislative mandate, serve as reviewer of sales tax forecasts for Regional Transportation District's FasTracks budget projections Colorado Municipal League Municipal Finance Project • Rz Analysis retained as sole municipal finance consultant in 2008 and 2009 responsible for developing and implementing the project • Authored white papers on future of municipal finance in the state and presented findings at regional and national conferences • Led a series of focus groups with finance directors around the state to identify financing challenges and revenue concerns • Findings have been highlighted in Denver Post editorials and Colorado Public Television broadcasts University of Denver Center for Colorado's Economic Future • Collaborating on a research piece assessing the current revenue structure in the state • Developing and serving as project leader on dashboard application that will continually assess the economic and fiscal health of the state • Co-authored the Center's analysis of Referendum 0 (2008) and presented the findings on Channel 9 News' webcast on the 2008 election Colorado Department of Transportation Revenue Study • Identified options to fund long term state transportation needs. Econometrically estimated revenue potential for those options over a 30-year time period. Authored revenue options report including considerations such as sufficiency, administrative burden and incidence of each option and presented findings to State Transportation Commission, Governor's Summit on Transportation and Transportation Trade Associations. Was retained to continue to support Governor Ritter's Blue Ribbon Panel on transportation finance. City of Boulder, Colorado Structural Revenue Study • Comprehensive review of revenue options for funding local government services and presentation of options to Blue Ribbon Commission. Analysis of the demographic trends impacting local government revenue, particularly sales tax and collaboration on translating those revenue trends into long-range revenue forecast for the City. Presented trend and forecast findings to Mayor and City Council, Commission, and City directors. Denver Regional Council of Governments 2035 Economic and Demographic Forecast • Collaborated with Center for Business and Economic Forecasting to develop long-range forecasts for population, labor force, jobs and other employment, and households by size, income, and age of head of household. Forecast results are integral inputs to DRCOG's land use and travel model update. City of Aurora, Colorado Structural Revenue Study • Analysis of political and economic impact of potential restructuring of the current revenue system. Includes analysis of the feasibility of implementation, the economic burden, and the sufficiency of the recommended changes to the system. Presented findings of long-term revenue forecasts to city leaders and Mayor and City Council. Southeast Business Partnership, Englewood, CO, On -Line Tax Estimator and Economic Gardening Information Tool • Project manager and tax analyst with a team of database, taxation, and GIS analysts developing applications • Tax estimation utility combines specifics about the business with spatially -based parameters of the tax code to provide the estimate • Information Tool allows user to query system for population and economic demographics within user - defined travel times of selected site • First such application developed in Colorado, the state with the one of the most complex local government tax structures in the nation Colorado Association of Realtors, Real Estate and the Local Economy • Conducted evaluation of the economic contribution of real estate to the state economy and to eight distinct sub -regions of the state. Presented findings at the Jefferson County Association of Realtor's Annual Meeting and served as media contact for the findings. University of Denver (2004-2005) Economist - Colorado Economic Futures Blue Ribbon Panel • Appointed Lead Economist for panel convened to assess sustainability of state revenue system • Led research efforts on state and national experience with tax and expenditure limitations, initiated constitutional change, tax reform, and relative tax burden analysis • Presented research findings to convened panel and compiled analysis for support of final report recommendations • Co-authored preliminary and final reports for panel Center for Tax Policy (1999-2000 and 2001-2005) Director of Research • Developed and implemented research agenda advocating sound state tax policy • Worked with Board of Directors to establish long-range research priorities for the Center • Authored Center publications (selected list below under publications) and presented findings to civic groups, professional conferences, and legislative committees • Performed research and presented findings on the impact of two prominent tax related initiative campaigns in Colorado (Tobacco, 2004; Refs C and D, 2005) • Recruited and supervised contract and student researchers • Served nationally as Trustee of the Governmental Research Association and member of the National Tax Conference City of Boulder (1992.1999) Administrative and Budget Analyst - Department of Parks and Recreation • Responsible for program analysis, budgeting, program revenue estimates, and development of methodology for program costing and fee recovery • Led the department's migration to the City's newly implemented financial system. Established the account structure for that migration in Parks and Recreation. Served on the city-wide committee charged with guiding the migration across systems. • Implemented a market -based fee program that helped shift reliance to user fees from taxes 0 Supervised financial assistants at 10 remote locations Research Analyst — Fire Department • Authored Fire and Emergency Services Master Plan • Developed GIS model to measure fire response times for additional fire stations • Analysis pivotal in securing funding and location for now operational Th City fire station Teaching Experience University of Denver, Graduate School of International Studies (1998-2000) Methods of Policy Analysis University of Colorado, Denver, Graduate School of Public Affairs (1997-Present) Public Finance, Micro/Macroeconomics, Research Methods, Statistics University of Colorado, Denver, School of Planning (2000-2002) Statistical Methods for Urban Planning University of Colorado, Boulder and University of Denver (1989-1993, 2001-2003) Econometrics, Micro/Macroeconomics Selected Academic and Professional Publications Refereed Publications Franklin J. James, Jeffery Romine, and Phyllis Resnick Terry, Big City Labor Markets and Immigrant Economic Performance. Policy Studies Journal. Vol. 30. 2002. Peter deLeon and Phyllis Resnick Terry, Comparative Policy Analysis: Deja Vu All Over Again? Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis, Vol. 1, No. 1, September, 1998. Sponsored Research Phyllis Resnick and John Zimmerman, Limited Market Value Colorado Style: Intuitive and Counterintuitive Effects. Research sponsored by The Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. Selected Professional Publications • The Contribution of Intermountain Power Agency to Utah's Economy, 2010 • Responding to the Economic Downturn: Innovations from Colorado Municipalities, 2009 • The Future of Financing Colorado's Municipal Governments: A Cautionary Tale, 2008 • TABOR's Ratchet and Colorado's Future: The Impact of Referenda C and D, 2005 • Fiscal Impact on Local Government of the Proposed Tobacco Tax Increase, 2004 • Business Tax Comparison: A Pilot Study Between Colorado and Arizona, 2004 • Fiscal Cap Style TELs in the States: An Inventory and Evaluation, 2004 • The Structure of Government in Colorado. A Ten -Year Update, 2003 • The Effectiveness of Tax Amnesty Programs: 1982-2002, 2003 • Funding Municipal Government Pre and Post Colorado's TABOR Amendment, 2002 • How Colorado Compares, 1999, 2001, 2002, and 2004 Editions • Assessed Valuation and Property Tax Changes in Colorado, 1999, 2001-2004 Editions • Inventory of Statewide TABOR Elections, 2000 Selected Professional and Academic Presentations • Denver Chamber of Commerce and Colorado Municipal League, Spring 2011, State Fiscal Sustainability to 2025 • Vectra Bank Business for Breakfast, Boulder, Colorado, 2011, State and Regional Economic Outlook • Citizens' Budget Commission of New York and Pew Center for the States and Statel-ine Conference, Phoenix, Arizona, 2010, Tax and Expenditure Limitations in Colorado: Lessons Learned • Vectra Bank Business for Breakfast, Steamboat Springs and Boulder, Colorado, 2010, State and Regional Economic Outlook • City of Wheat Ridge, Colorado Blue Ribbon Commission on Revenue Sustainability, 2009, Financing Local Government in Wheat Ridge: A Cautionary Look to the Future • Ouray, Colorado Business Roundtable, Colorado Municipal League Annual Meeting, and National League of Cities Regional Conference, 2008, Financing Local Government in Colorado: A Cautionary Look to the Future • Texas State Legislature, May 2008, TABOR and its Effects on the Economy and Governance in Colorado • Western Social Science Association, April, 2008, The Relationship Between TELs and Tax Reform in the States • Colorado City and County Management Association, March, 2007, Demographic Shifts and Their Effects on Local Government Financing in Colorado. • Colorado Association of Realtors annual meeting, February, 1007, Economic Contribution of Real Estate to the State's Economy. • Association of Policy Analysis and Management annual research conference, November, 2006, Do Fiscal Cap TELS Alter the Frequency and Process of State Tax Changes? • International Association of Assessing Officers, October, 2006, and Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, November, 2006, The Silent Shift: Unnoticed Impacts of Colorado's Gallagher Amendment • Testimony at National Academy of Sciences, July, 2006, An Assessment of the State and Local Tax Section of the US Census Bureau from the perspective of state tax policy user groups • American Society for Public Administration Annual Conference, April, 2006, TABOR: Could it Happen in your State? Lessons from the TEL Movement • Jefferson County, Colorado Association of Realtors, March, 2006, The Impact of the Real Estate Sector on the State and Regional Economy • Federation of Tax Administrators Revenue Estimating Conference, October, 2005, The Effect of TABOR's Ratchet on Colorado's Economic Future • Rose Community Foundation Board, August, 2005, The Effect of TABOR's Ratchet on Colorado's Economic Future • Meetings of the National Tax Conference and the Government Research Association, July, 2005, Constitutional and Statutory Constraints on Fiscal Policy in Colorado • Institute for International Education Bosnian Leadership Program, Winter, 2005, The Structure of Government and Taxation in Colorado • Minnesota Taxpayers Association Annual Meeting, February 2005, The Impact of Direct Democracy on Fiscal Policy -Making in Colorado • Center for Colorado Policy Studies, Fall, 2003, The Role of Research Partnerships Between Universities and Private Non -Profit Research Organizations • Colorado Tax Commission, August 2002, Taxes in Colorado: Perception vs. Reality • Colorado Rural Electric Association, Spring 2002, Taxes in Colorado: Perception vs. Reality • National Federation of Independent Business, 1999 Fall Conference, An Overview of Tax Burden in Colorado as it Compares to States Across the Nation Professional Associations Government Research Association, former trustee AXOMDesign + Planning R6sum6 Bruce Meighen, AICP Principal Education Master of City Planning, Georgia Institute of Technology Thesis, Statistical Modeling for Environmental Impacts Bachelor of Arts, Geography Urban Systems, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec Commerce Degree, Champlain College, Montreal, Quebec Professional Registrations Certified Planner(AICP), 1995 Community Viz, 2002, 2005 Affiliations Member, American Institute of Certified Planners Member, American Planning Association Member, Colorado Planning Association Member, Larimer+ Weld County State Demographer Population and Employment Forecasting Committee Awards + Honors Merit Award for Planning, Westside Creeks, ASLA Colorado, 2011 Award for Excellence in Planning, National Association of Recreation Resource Planners, Roads and Trails Plan for the Rampart Motorized Recreation Area, 2011 Outstanding Achievement Award — Urban Design - West Salt Lake Transit Plan, Utah Planning Association 2010 Outstanding Achievement Award- Technology Award — Future of Salt Lake County Map Series and Crosswalk Portal — Component of the County Cooperative Plan, Utah Planning Association 2010 Utah APA West Salt Lake Transit Plan, 2010 Award of Merit in Best Practices Category, American Planning Association, Florida Chapter, Osceola County Conceptual Masterplans + Smart Code, 2010 Utah Governor's Award, Salt Lake County Cooperative Plan, 2010 Merit Award, West Bench General Plan, Colorado Chapter, American Society of Landscape Architects, 2007 Envision Utah, 2006 Governor's Quality Growth Award, West Bench Planning Summits for Public Involvement for 2005 Council of Government Summits Chapter Award, Colorado Chapter, American Planning Association, East Mulberry Corridor Plan, 2003 Chapter Award, Colorado Chapter of the American Planning Association, Northern Colorado Community Separator Study, 1999 Presentations Horses and Public Involvement: the East Narcoosee Community Workshop, American Planning Association National Planning Conference, 2010 Scales of Sustainability, Colorado APA/ ASLA 2008- National Trends in Growth Planning — Flint Hills Growth Plan, Colorado APA Conference, 2007 Making Redevelopment Work, APA National Conference, 2006 Innovative Planning Techniques, Wyoming APA Conference, 2003 Scenarios for Large Scale Planning, APA National Conference, 2003 Bruce Meighen is a certified planner who specializes in forecasting demographics in support of facility needs assessments and large infrastructure projects. Bruce recently completed the 2011 demographic forecast for the North Front Range MPO, and has provided similar forecasting for the Salt Lake Valley, Utah; areas around Orlando, Florida; and other communities throughout the West. He has worked on two updates to Metro Wastewater Reclamation District's Demand Projections using a land use forecasting, demographic -based approach. Bruce has worked on numerous comprehensive plans with the District, and created the land use dataset for the Denver Regional Council of Governments (ORCOG). Project Experience North Front Range Metropolitan Planning Organization (NFR MPO), Land Use and Demographic Model, Colorado. Project manager for the development of GIS land use forecasting model to generate the 20-year population and employment forecasts in 5-year increments for the entire NFR MPO Transportation Analysis Zone database. The area included several counties as well as numerous municipalities and small towns. The project also included development of measures of effectiveness indicators to evaluate alternative land use scenarios. City of Fort Collins, City Plan Update, Fort Collins, Colorado. Project manager of an update to the Fort Collins' Comprehensive Plan, known as City Plan. Hard issues of maintaining the current growth management boundary vs. modifying it, and how the city wants to handle future growth are at the forefront of the update. Another focus for the update is on redevelopment and infill opportunities within the community. The project was integrated with the Transportation Masterplan update. Bruce Meighen, AICP RAs=6 Salt Lake County, County Cooperative Plan Land Use and Demographic Forecasts, Salt Lake County, Utah. As principal in charge, assisted with a county -wide cooperative plan that will interlace housing, transportation, infrastructure and employment across Salt Lake County. The plan utilizes AECOM's Crosswalk Cooperative Planning "web interface tool, a web -based forecasting system created by AECOM to integrate land use and transportation datasets from dozens of jurisdictions into one seamless layer. Rocky Mountain Power, Salt Lake County Electrical Plan, Salt Lake City, Utah. Principal in charge of development of a county wide electrical infrastructure plan that will integrate community considerations and work from a county -wide perspective to establish a long-term basis for collaboration. Mr. Meighen was principal in charge of growth modeling, utilizingAECOM's Crosswalk Cooperative Planning Web Interface and Mapping Tools to integrate land use datasets to determine future land growth and facility needs. Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG), Land Use Development, Denver, Colorado. Principal in charge who completed the future land use development for over 60 communities in the DRCOG region. The project is in support of future transportation and quality growth strategies. Osceola County, Land Use and Demographic Model and Transportation Element Update, Osceola County, Florida. As principal in charge, worked with the County to develop land use model and a corresponding web interface, integrating 300 datasets to form a future land use vision of the County. The model produces demographic forecasts for any parcel in the County from now (250,000 people), to a population of over 700,000. Key indicators help optimize the relationship between transportation and land use. The system linked to a transportation and transit model. AECOM also developed the resulting transportation plan. Metro Wastewater Reclamation District, Metro Wastewater Service Area Utility, Land Use and Demographic Forecasting Model, Denver, Colorado. Project manager of the service area utility plan for Denver metropolitan area, including demographic and economic forecasts and future land use analyses. The project included an automated GIS model to assist in the generation of demographic data at any scale, utilizing TAZ data, land use information and census data. The project examined future growth for the Denver Region for key points in time, from 2000 to build -out. City of Greeley, Greeley Water Demand Study, Greeley, Colorado. Project manager of a long-range, GIS-based water demand forecast utilizing alternative land use scenarios for the years of 1999, 2020 and 2050. City of Greeley, Water Demand and Supply Decision Support System, Greeley, Colorado. Project manager of the automated computerized decision support system that forecasts parcel -level water supply and demand information. Town of Windsor, Comprehensive Plan Update, Windsor, Colorado. Project manager of the comprehensive plan update, including the addition of housing policies addressing workforce and affordable housing. Other components included environmental, transportation, infrastructure and economic development. North Poudre Irrigation Company, North Poudre Irrigation District Masterplan, Wellington, Colorado. Provided land use analysis and demographic forecasting services in support of a new utility masterplan. City of Englewood, Southeast Englewood Build -out Study and Decision Support System, Englewood, Colorado. Project manager for a build -out study for the Southeast Englewood Water District examining vacant and redevelopment parcels to determine future water taps. Corresponding decision support system allowing information to be updated annually. Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District (NCWCD), Water Demand Study, Colorado. Project manager of a study assessing and quantifying present and future water demands for the region along Colorado's northern Front Range. Developed GIS database utilizing satellite imagery, existing GIS databases and future land use plans to assist planners in meeting water demands into the next century. Town of Johnstown, Comprehensive Plan/Downtown Plan, Colorado. Land use planner involved in the creation of new comprehensive plan representing the latest quality growth development forms. Key considerations included gateways, redevelopment of downtown and new economic districts. Town of Milliken, Comprehensive Plan/Downtown Plan, Milliken, Colorado. As principal in charge, created new comprehensive plan that represents that latest development forms. Made recommendations for new neighborhoods and the redevelopment of the downtown. acOMDesign +Planning R69um6 Casey Smith Education Bachelor of Science in Natural Resources Management and GIS, Colorado State University, 2008 Honors + Awards CEC-Utah Engineering Excellence Award, West Salt Lake County Transit Plan, 2010 Utah Transit Authority / Salt Lake County, East Salt Lake Transit Study, Salt Lake County, Utah. Awards: APA, Envision Utah Casey Smith is a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) specialist with experience in growth modeling, zoning/land use modeling, satellite and aerial imagery analysis, and field work. He provides strong project support and leadership with his combined experience in GIS, community visioning, regional land use planning, data management, cartography, and public relations. He also has expertise in communication with local planning directors and GIS specialists to ensure projects operate in the most efficient manner. Project Experience North Front Range Metropolitan Planning Organization (NFR MPO), North Front Range Land Use Allocation Model Front Range, Colorado. Project manager / CommunityViz developer who assisted the MPO in the development of a seamless regional land use dataset, this dataset was developed through a proprietary web -based data -sharing portal, and served as the foundation for growth and transportation modeling for the NFR MPO's entire jurisdiction. The project utilized the latest in land use forecasting technology, through a combination of CommunityViz software and ESRI ArcMap. The results include 2015, 2025, 2035 population and employment forecasts for the entire NFR MPO Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) database. Because of the unique factors that each community brings to a land use forecasting exercise, the project incorporated individual datasets such as development hotspots, transportation corridors, regional transit plans, redevelopment areas, and environmental constraints, as they were available. Additionally, each community was an active participant in the modeling process, engaging in providing data inputs, weighting model parameters, and reviewing final results. Casey Smith R9s=6 Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG), Land Use Mapping, Denver, Colorado. GIS mapping of zoning and future land use across 56 jurisdictions in and around Denver Metro. Contacted all jurisdictions to obtain their zoning and future land use data and "crosswalked" it into a single, cohesive, seamless dataset based on density and intensity. A cohesive land use dataset allows planning decisions to be made in context with the entire region, instead of each individual jurisdiction. Osceola County, Land Use Model and Transportation Element Update, Osceola County, Florida. Worked with the County to develop land use model and a corresponding web interface, integrating 300 datasets to form a future land use vision of the County. The model produces demographic forecasts for any parcel in the County from now (250,000 people), to a population of over 700,000. Key indicators help optimize the relationship between transportation and land use. The system linked to a transportation and transit model. AECO M also developed the resulting transportation plan, including the develop of 5 liveable corridors comprising BRT, Light Rail, Commuter Rail and High Speed Rail. Osceola County, Transportation Element Update, Osceola County, Florida. AECOM is working with the County to update the transportation plan element of their Comprehensive Plan. The plan addresses the establishment of a multimodal transportation system promoting sustainable development, increasing mobility options and promoting accessibility to economic, educational, cultural, and recreational opportunities. The first phase of the plan examined existing conditions, goals, best practices, ideal geometries and evaluation metrics for roadways and transit within the County. Mr. Smith was GIS technician for the project. Utah Transit Authority, Westside Transit Study Salt Lake County, Utah, Programmed a GIS-based demographic and land use model analyzing future land growth patterns necessary for successful development of transit network alternatives. The transit model evaluates a new 20-mile transit corridor, the light rail extension to the Salt Lake City airport, and the new Mountain View Corridor, and is based on vacant lands, attractiveness factors, redevelopment potential, and existing light rail and BRT lines. The study also included travel forecasting and refined the land use concept to optimize the effectiveness of the preferred transit network. Utah Transit Authority / Salt Lake County, East Salt Lake Transit Study, Salt Lake County, Utah. Served as project manager / CommunityViz developer for this study that investigated future land development patterns necessary for successful development of transit network alternatives. The study also included travel forecasting and refining the land use concept to optimize the effectiveness of the preferred transit network. All 20 jurisdictions were contacted to obtain their zoning and future land use data and "crosswalking" it into a single, cohesive, seamless dataset based on density and intensity via the "Cooperative Plan" website developed for the project. The growth model was based on areas of change, attractiveness factors, redevelopment potential, development centers, hotspots, and existing light rail and BRT lines. Rocky Mountain Power, Salt Lake Valley Electrical Plan and Growth Analysis, Salt Lake, Summit and Wasatch Counties, Utah. Project manager for GIS mapping of electric transmission, distribution, and substations across three Utah counties. The GIS analysis illustrates future megawatt demand, as an aid to identifying areas in need of more facilities. The maps were used in task force meetings involving engineers, planners, and private land owners to develop plans for the type and location of new lines and substations, as well as design standards to better integrate them into the urban environment. AECOM utilized our Crosswalk Cooperative Planning Web Interface and Land Use ModelMapping Tools to determine future substation and transmission line locations and electrical facility needs. AECOM also produced a best practices handbook for siting facilities. Kennecott Land Company, Land Development Digitizing, Salt Lake County, Utah. As GIS technician, artistically produced land use plans that were loaded into GIS and converted to digital vector representations of raster inputs to accurately predict development footprints. Loaded vector representations into GIS, georeferenced, and coded with appropriate land use designations to reproduce the artistic plan, but in a form that can be placed on a map with other similar plans from the jurisdiction of the Salt Lake Valley. consistency between previous sub regional controls and new ones. It is anticipated that a new subarea would be added to further refine the forecasts. In addition, AECOM will include an evaluation of employment land available for expansion of each sector pursuant to local plans and policies. The subarea forecasts will also address population and housing growth associated with employment within each subarea by evaluating characteristics of the existing population in each subarea (using 2010 Census data and other reliable sources), building permits and other factors that are identified in consultation with regional and local planning officials. Individual meetings will be held with each jurisdiction to further evaluate control totals, redevelopment potential, future developments and land capacity. As you will read in the remainder of our proposal, we have an approach to regional modeling that will meet all of the specific requests and needs of the North Front Range 2040 forecast. In addition, our experience with both subarea and statewide modeling will ensure consistency with both existing North Front Range analyses and existing state and other regional models. Finally, the consulting team is fully integrated into the economic modeling community in the state, making us uniquely qualified to lead and facilitate the task force meetings of state and regional economists that will accompany this modeling effort. We look forward to meeting with you to discuss this project further. Sincerely, MgBaOysgned b2 Se B. fisher. PhD Steven B.FisherPhD'°" $e`"&""""" s Dati:M12.03.16M.52:15 xom.c=US �� Date:2012.03.I60?52:15-06'BD Steven B. Fisher, PhD Stevefisher2995 (a)msn.com 1860 W. Centennial Dr. #302 Louisville, CO 80027 720-363-3545 1. Cost of effort In the NFRMPO modeling area that currently includes 4 subareas. Fisher Resnick Meighen Smith Labor Expenses Total Task $ 150.00 $ 150.00 $ 193.84 $ 69.94 Task 1. Regional forecast and subarea control 45 45 32 32 $ 21,941 $ 500 $ 22,441 Task 2. The Population and Household Demographic Forecast 24 24 16 24 $ 11,980 $ 500 $ 12,480 Task 3. Model Documentation 12 12 12 12 $ 6,765 $ 150 $ 6,915 Task 4. Task Force meetings 18 18 9 3 $ 7,354 $ 500 $ 7,854 Total 99 99 69 71 $ 48,042 $ 1,650 $ 49,691 2. Cost of the effort in the nonattainment area In Weld and Larlmer Counties. Fisher Resnick Meighen Smith Labor Expenses Total Task $ 150.00 $ 150.00 $ 193.94 $ 69.94 Task 1. Regional forecast and subarea control 16 16 16 16 $ 9,020 $ 250 $ 9,270 Task 2. The Population and Household Demographic Forecast 12 12 8 12 $ 5,990 $ 250 $ 6,240 Task 3. Model Documentation 4 4 4 12 $ 2,815 $ 75 $ 2,890 Task 4. Task Force meetings 6 6 3 3 $ 2,591 $ 250 $ 2,841 Total 38 36 31 43 $ 20,416 $ 825 $ 22,241 Labor Cost By Staff 1. Cost of effort in the NFRMPO modeling area that currently includes 4 subareas. Direct Rate Hours Labor Cost Dr. Steven Fisher $ 136.36 $ 150.00 99 $ 14,850.00 Dr. Phyllis Resnick $ 136.36 $ 150.00 99 $ 14,850.00 Bruce Meighen, AICP $ 67.84 $ 193.84 69 $ 23,374.96 Casey Smith $ 24.48 $ 69.94 71 $ 4,965.74 Labor Total $ 48,040.70 2. Cost of the effort in the nonattainment area in Weld and Larimer Counties. Direct Rate 2.86 Hours Labor Cost Dr. Steven Fisher $ 136.36 $ 150.00 38 $ 5,700.00 Dr. Phyllis Resnick $ 136.36 $ 150.00 38 $ 5,700.00 Bruce Meighen, AICP $ 67.84 $ 193.84 31 $ 6,009.04 Casey Smith $ 24.48 $ 69.94 43 $ 3,007.42 Total $ 20,416.46 AECOM Employees at Federal Rate of 10 % profit and 2.86 multiplier Fisher and Resnick Rate Analysis Labor rate $ 76.36 Overhead: Travel, office, supplies, administrative time, etc $ 60.00 $ 136.36 Profit @10% $ 13.64 Total $ 150.00 Steven B. Fisher, PhD i Digitally signed by Steven B. Fisher, PhD ,. r1DN: cn=Steven B. Fisher, PhD, o, ou, email=stevetlsher2995@msncom, c=US Date:2012.03.16 09:52:50 -06'00' �l� Section 1. Scope of Proposal Our team is the only team currently working with the State and County model used to set forecasts for both the DRCOG and NFR MPO study areas. Our team has also been working with the control totals and sub regional control totals for the last two NFRMPO TAZ Updates. Our team has also worked and consulted with every community with the in the NFR MPO and non - attainment areas related to populations and employment forecasts as part of last efforts. Lastly, we are doing the same process for DRCOG. Our team will perform the following tasks as per Section 3 of the RFP: Task 1. Regional forecast and subarea control Task 2. The Population and Household Demographic Forecast Task 3. Model Documentation Task 4. Task Force meetings We are also prepared to meet the schedule as outlined by the NFR MPO. The Economic and Demographic Model We already have a detailed model for the state of Colorado. The model was provided to us by Bill Kendall, formerly of the Center for Business and Economic Forecasting. Bill has retired. We have used the model successfully for Xcel Energy, DRCOG, and the Center for Colorado's Economic Future. The model is already substantially documented. It is built in the propriety software Eviews. The inputs to the model come from Economy.com, BLS, Census Bureau, BEA, and the State Demography Office. In using the model we have become familiar with the input data sources and with the staff of the State Demography Office. The outputs of the model are forecasts to 2040 for the following. (Variables are for Colorado unless otherwise designated.) VARIABLE Description NAME ADJPOPCO Adjusted Population (Incl. Undercount) BIRCO Births CIVJOBSCO Civilian Jobs (Demand) CIVJOBSHLDCO Series Civilian Jobs Held (Supply) CIVPOP16CO Civilian Non -institutional Population 16 & Over CIVSHCO Series Civilian Non -institutional Pop 16& Over/Total Population COMMUTCO Commuting CPIUDEN Denver -Greeley CPIU DEACO Deaths ECONCO Construction Employment EEACO Total Nonfarm Employment EFINCO Finance & Insurance Employment EGFCO Federal Govt Employment EGLCO Local Govt Employment EGSCO State Govt Employment EINFCO Information Employment EMDCO Durable Manufacturing Employment EMINRCO Natural Res. & Mining Employment EMNCO Nondurable Manufacturing Employment ERELCO Real Estate Employment ERESCO Employed Persons (BLS Estimate) ERTTDCO Retail Trade Employment ESACFCO Accommodation & Food Services Employment ESADMCO Admin. Services Employment ESEDUCO Educational Services Employment ESHLCO Health Services Employment ESMGTCO Management Services Employment ESOCO Other Services Employment ESPSTCO Professional and Tech Services Employment ESRECCO Entertainment & Recreation Services Employment ETRANCO Transportation Employment EUTCO Utilities Employment EWHTDCO Wholesale Trade Employment FCPIU US CPI: All Items FET US Employment: Total Nonagricultural FPOPQ US Population: Total FYPQ US Income: Personal —Total HHCO Households HSTOCKCO Housing Stock HUATZICO Single Family Housing Permits HUATZTCO Total Housing Permits JOBSADJCO Total Jobs JOBSRESCO Jobs Held By Residents LCRESCO Labor Force(BLS Estimate) LFPRCO Labor Force Participation Rate MHJOBSCO Multiply Held Jobs MIGCO Net Migration MILEMPCO Military Jobs MJHRTCO Multiple Job Holding Rate NRCO Total Population -Census Estimate RURESCO Unemployment Rate SRRTCO Retail Store Sales (W/O Restaurants) SRESCO Retail Sales Restaurants YPCO Personal Income WSDCO Wage & Salary Income YOLCO Other Labor Income YNTAFCO Farm Prop. Income YNTEAFCO Nonfarm Prop. Income VCO Transfer Payments YPPROPCO Property Income TWPERCO Social Security Payments RESADJCO Residence Adjustment STATDIS Statistical Discrepancy (In Labor Market Balance) UNEMCO Unemployed Persons POPUNCCO Population Undercount There is considerable overlap between these variables and those requested in the RFP. The model has been used by The Center for Business and Economic Forecasting and by us, in various forms, for many years. The challenges in adapting this model to the requirements of NFRMPO will be four: • Scaling the model to the NFRMPO region, especially factoring in the partial counties. • Adding variables as required by NFRMPO. • Assembling input data suitable for the NFRMPO region. • Adapting to the reality of the "new normal." The history over which we fit the model econometrically is likely not the same as the future over which we forecast. However, these challenges are much smaller than attempting to build the model from scratch. Assigned Personal and Qualifications Dr. Steven Fisher Dr. Steven Fisher has been an independent economic and financial consultant to state and local government since January 1, 2000. Since March 2010 Steven has been a staff economist at the Center for Colorado's Economic Future (CCEF). From 1992 to 1999 Steven was manager in charge of consulting for DMG-Maximus in Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, and Wyoming. From 1983 to 1991 Steven was Director of Budget for the City of Boulder, Colorado. He was president of the Denver Association of Business Economists in 1989. Steven has a bachelor's degree from Duke University and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Nebraska, Lincoln. A sample of projects Steven has completed during his career include • Staff economist for a study of the long term outlook for Colorado's state general fund for the Center for Colorado's Economic Future (Daniel's School of Business, University of Denver.) This project was commissioned by the Colorado Legislature to address chronic budget stress on the state general fund. • Contract economist for statewide econometric modeling for Xcel Energy. The model provides inputs for Xcel's rate setting and capital planning process. • Analyst for an economic impact analysis of Cheyenne Frontier Days. This project estimated the regional economic impact of Frontier Days using economic, demographic, and survey data. • Analyst on a project to determine the costs and benefits of urban growth for the City of Aurora. The City of Aurora found itself unable to finance infrastructure for urban development. The project estimated the costs of various types of development and recommended development fees. • Analyst on a project to realign building permit and development application fees for Aurora, Colorado. Aurora's building permit program was not generating revenue adequate to finance planning and permitting. The analysis costed-out and priced these processes. • Assisted the National Research Center in estimating the long-term costs of the Older Americans Act in Colorado, the Denver Region, and Kalamazoo County, Michigan. The OAA provides funding for a variety of programs for seniors. The project projected costs expected from the growing senior population. Dr. Phyllis Resnick is the founding director and manager of R Squared Analysis, a firm specializing in merging economic, demographic and spatial analysis. Among her major clients, she recently served as the Regional Economist for the Denver Regional Council of Governments and continues to serve as the Principal Economist for the Center for Colorado's Economic Future. Dr. Resnick recently completed or is in the process of completing the following projects: • Long range economic and demographic forecasts for the Denver Regional Council of Government's 2035 and 2040 transportation plan updates and Xcel Energy's annual rate study. • Revenue sustainability studies for the states of Colorado and Hawaii • Economic impact studies (multiplier studies) on the effect of o The Intermountain Power Agency on the Utah economy o Comprehensive health care reform on the Colorado economy o Lottery fund investments for recreational amenities in 14 Colorado regions • Consulting contributor to the Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting June 2011 Quarterly Economic Outlook and Forecast • Consulting economist for Governor Hickenlooper's Office of State Planning and Budgeting's analysis of the impact of entrepreneurship and start-up firms on the state's economy • Revenue option studies for the Colorado Department of Transportation, Governor Ritter's Transportation Infrastructure Panel, and the City of Denver's Housing Department. • Long term revenue model for the Colorado Department of Transportation • Structural revenue studies for the cities of Denver, Boulder, Aurora, and Colorado Springs • A Colorado Municipal League study assessing the fiscal sustainability of Colorado's municipal governments. • Nationally sponsored research into the effect of the Gallagher Amendment's form of limited market value on the property tax distribution across classes of property and regions of the state. Dr. Resnick is the former Director of Research for the Colorado Center for Tax Policy and lead economist for the Colorado Economic Futures Panel, a blue- ribbon task force convened by the University of Denver to consider the fiscal sustainability of the State of Colorado. In 2007-08 she served as research staff to DU's Strategic Issues Panel exploring changes to the state's constitution. She has led and authored a number of studies looking at state and local tax policy and burdens within Colorado and has spoken nationally on the impact of Colorado's TABOR Amendment and the role of the initiative process in formulating fiscal policy in Colorado. Dr. Resnick received her Ph.D. in public administration at the University of Colorado. Her dissertation research is a fifty -state statistical analysis of the impact of tax and expenditure limitations on a state's ability to and process of reforming its state tax code. She is the recipient of a Lincoln Institute fellowship in support of this research and concurrently has served as a researcher and speaker for the Lincoln Institute on topics related to tax limitation in Colorado. Dr. Resnick holds a master's degree in economics from the University of Colorado, Boulder with a field concentration and additional PhD work in the fields of natural resource and environmental economics. Dr. Resnick has taught economics, statistics, and public policy analysis at the University of Colorado and The University of Denver at both the undergraduate and graduate levels and has received numerous university awards recognizing her teaching. She has just completed two terms as a trustee of the Governmental Research Association and remains an active member of the association. References For Steven Fisher and Phyllis Resnick Bill Kendall, formerly head of the Center for Business and Economic forecasting 303-472-7835 bill(iDcbef-colorado. com Charlie Brown, Director, Center for Colorado's Economic Future 303-726-7780 brownchaz(dr,)msn.com For AECOM North Front Range MPO Land Use and Demographic Model Suzette Mallette Regional Transportation Planning Director North Front Range MPO 970.416.2257 smallette ,nfrmpo.org South College Corridor Plan, Fort Collins, CO and other Fort Collins planning projects Joe Frank Director of Advance Planning City of Ft. Collins P.O. Box 580 281 N. College Ave. Fort Collins, CO 80524 970-221-6752 jfrankAfegov.com Resumes Steven B. Fisher, Ph.D./ 1860 W. Centennial Dr #302, Louisville, CO 80027/ 720-363-3545/ Stevefisher2995na.msn.com Background Since March 2010 a member of the consulting team Center for Colorado's Economic Future (Daniels School of Business, DU) Since January 1, 2000: Independent financial consultant to state and local government. From 1992 to 1999: DMG-Maximus, Inc. Manager in charge of consulting, management, marketing, and customer relations in Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, and Wyoming. From 1983 to 1991: Director of Budget for the City of Boulder, Colorado. Prior to 1983; Program Analyst for the Nebraska Legislative Fiscal Office. Instructor in economics, Nebraska Wesleyan University. President of the Denver Association of Business Economists in 1989. Education B.A., Psychology - Duke University, Durham, North Carolina. Ph.D., Economics - University of Nebraska, Lincoln. Consulting Analysis of governmental revenues, expenditures, assets and liabilities. Development of operating and capital budgets. Researching historical cost and revenue records. Analysis of comprehensive annual financial reports. Efficiency improvement studies. Econometric modeling. Compilation and analysis of regional economic and demographic data. Development and monitoring of performance measures. Allocation of administrative and overhead costs. Comprehensive cost accounting of government services. Rate studies. Example Projects Long term economic and demographic forecast for DRCOG. Analysis of costs and benefits of urban growth for the City of Aurora. Comprehensive revenue analysis for Tucson, Arizona; Payson, Arizona; and Kansas City, Kansas. Comprehensive assessment of finances for Iberia Parish, Louisiana and South Jordan, Utah. Econometric modeling for Xcel Energy and the Center for Colorado's Economic Future.