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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCORRESPONDENCE - AGREEMENT MISC - CSU SPONSORED PROGRAMS (2)C0'09a' Lhuversity Sponsored Programs Fort Collins, CO 80523-2002 Phone: (970) 491-6355 Fax: (970)491-6147 Proposal Transmittal Information Date: December 19, 2011 TO: Dave Kemp City of Fort Collins C/O Advance Planning 281 College Avenue Fort Collins, CO 80521 DAKemp(a),fegov.com Colorado State University submits a proposal entitled, "Do Bike Friendly Communities Attract and Retain Creative Workers? Assessing Cycling's Economic Impact Through Household Location Choices of Highly Educated Workers". Dr. Martin Shields is CSU's Principal Investigator. The Research Administrators assigned to this project are: Vincent "Bo" Bogdanski Senior Research Administrator Sponsored Programs, CSU Fort Collins, CO 80523-2002 (970)491-5574 Bo.Bogdanski(@,colostate.edu Lisa Anaya ti Research j ministratoror Sponsored Programs, CSU Fort Collins, CO 80523-2002 (970)491-0537 Lisa.Ana a(a),,colostate.edu Please direct questions, correspondence or award documents to either of the individuals named above. Thank you. xc: Sponsored Programs PI Do Bike Friendly Communities Attract and Retain Creative Workers? Assessing Cycling's Economic Impact Through Household Location Choices of Highly Educated Workers Creative class people value active outdoor recreation very highly. They are drawn to places and communities where many outdoor activities are prevalent ---both because they enjoy these activities and because their presence is seen as a signal that the place is amenable to the broader creative lifestyle. Richard Florida 2002 in Washington Monthly Project Description In his book The Rise of the Creative Class, Richard Florida writes that a community's economic vitality in the new economy depends largely on its ability to attract young, creative workers. Florida argues that such individuals are critical to innovation and idea generation and help foster a dynamic and entrepreneurial economic climate. Accordingly, Florida argues that growing the "creative class" is a critical component of any comprehensive economic development strategy. Central to Florida's work is his observation that such workers are highly mobile. With a strong national demand for their skill sets, they confront a wide choice of possible destinations, each providing ample economic opportunity. In such instances, Florida argues, creative individuals will choose the most desirable place to live. Economists and demographers are among the many that have long understood that the prevalence of good paying jobs is an important reason why people move into a region. Conversely, researchers have also quantified the extent to which dis- amenities--such as high crime and bad weather --can drive people out of regions. Florida's work is innovative in that he identifies the key demographic segment for economic prosperity (i.e., the creative class), and then describes the factors that most greatly influence their migration decisions. His main point is that lifestyle choices are as important as economic opportunities. He concludes that cities and towns can best attract creative workers by fostering tolerance and providing a variety of "Bohemian amenities," which can include a vibrant nightlife, cultural centers and events, and recreational opportunities. Anecdotal evidence suggests that a strong bike culture is one such amenity that can help communities attract and retain creative workers. For example, the computer chip design industry is an important driver of the Fort Collins economy, and interviews with company leaders indicate that many of their workers are also active cyclists who moved to the city in part because of its "bike friendly culture." In this research project we propose to formally test the hypothesis that bike - friendly communities attract and retain creative workers. With an eye toward public policy, our goal is to better understand the potential for improvements in bicycle infrastructure to help with local and regional economic development efforts. Although this project does not propose to directly measure the economic impact of cycling, this initiative will provide insight into factors (i.e., human capital accumulation) that profoundly impact regional economic competitiveness, both in the short- and long -run. In essence, our work may help communities build more dynamic economies, with long-lasting and self -reinforcing impacts. We will share our results through several channels. First, we will provide the City of Fort Collins with a research report that defines the research problem, outlines study methods, describes key results, and offers policy recommendations. The report will be written so that it is accessible to policy audiences. A supplemental executive summary and powerpoint will also be provided. Second, our project team works closely with the Bike Coordinator for the City of Fort Collins, and we will share results with the City through this partnership. The project is especially timely for Fort Collins given the City council is currently undertaking a long-term budgeting and planning effort, with transportation and economic development critical components of the initiative. Third, we will submit our findings to an academic.journal that focuses on economic development and transportation issues in the United States. Personnel The research project will be led by Dr. Martin Shields, professor of economics at Colorado State University, and director of CSU's Regional Economics Institute. Professor Shields earned his PhD at the University of Wisconsin -Madison in 1998, and has extensively researched and published on issues related to migration and economic growth, especially in small and mid -sized US cities. His role will include directing the project team in developing both the theoretical and empirical frameworks and interpreting the results. Funding is not requested for Dr. Shields' effort. Most of the funding provided by the City of Fort Collins will be used to support a one -semester graduate research assistance stipend for Jake Salcone, a master's candidate in resource economics at CSU. He will be responsible for reviewing the literature, providing leadership on collecting and organizing data, estimating statistical models and interpreting and writing the final report. Jake has a B.A. in International Sustainable Development from the University of California, Santa Cruz. He has conducted community development research in California and Bolivia. He came to Fort Collins by way of Portland, Oregon where he worked in the energy efficiency sector before joining the Rural Community Assistance Corporation, which helps rural communities with infrastructure planning and development. Jake is committed to studying and implementing community sustainability initiatives. He is a dedicated bike commuter and die-hard cyclocross racer. The remaining funding will be used to support an intern at the Regional Economics Institute, who will help with the literature review, collect data and organize the database. Performance Sites/Data Resources This research is not site specific; rather it uses secondary data to make comparisons across cities and towns. This is further described in the next section. Research Plan Our goal in this research project is to understand the extent to which growth of a region's creative class depends on the local bike infrastructure and culture. To do so we will build a family of economic, statistical (econometric) models. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) are our regions of interest. We will conduct our analysis on 1) all 367 MSAs, 2) the 51 MSAs with more than 1 million residents, the 52 MSAs with between 500,000 and 1 million residents, 3) those MSAs under 500,000 residents, and 2) the 1S3 with fewer than 200,000 people. Conducting analysis on subsets of MSAs may be necessary, as larger ones may differ in fundamental, yet immeasurable ways, from small and mid -sized ones. Measuring the Growth of the Creative Class Our indicators of interest are the net change in the number and proportion of highly educated and creative workers for each metropolitan area in the US over the period 2000-2010. We will look at two age demographics: 1) all individuals 25+ years of age, and 2) those 25-34 years old. With respect to creative capacity, we will look at 1) individuals with least a 4=year college degree, and 2) the subset of creative class workers (based on occupation), as defined by Richard Florida. Data will be drawn from the US Census Bureau. Controlling for Local Economic and Social Conditions Our explanatory variables include several traditional measures used in previous studies.' These will act as controls, and will consider assorted measures of labor market conditions (job and wage growth, unemployment), weather (number of 1 Michael Greenwood (1975) provides a good review of the theoretical migration literature and early empirical studies focusing on labor market conditions. Greenwood and Hunt (1989) provide a look at the role of climate amenities. Ronald Whisler and co-authors investigate amenities as a mitigating push -factor for out -migration, but do not specifically consider cycling. sunny days, average winter temperature, etc) and social conditions (such as crime) shown to be important in other migration studies? Because many college towns are noted for bicycling, we will include an indicator variable for the presence of a large university. A thorough review of the literature will likely identify other potential control variables. Isolating the Role of Cycling Although the above factors will provide important insights into many of the labor market and amenity variables influencing the relative growth of a region's creative class, the focus is better understanding the role cycling policies and conditions play in attracting such workers. In particular, we will examine how various cycling attributes of a community might affect the net growth of highly educated and creative workers. Although theory suggests recreation opportunities are important in migration decisions of creative workers, most evidence is anecdotal. A recent paper by Whisler et al (2008) addresses this shortcoming. The authors forward a statistical model looking at assorted factors that may help communities retain creative workers, concluding "an abundance of cultural and recreational amenities lowers out - migration rates of young college -educated." However, the authors define recreation rather broadly, looking at "sheer number of recreation activities; recreation land; golf, movies, good food per capita." What is missing from nearly all previous studies are comprehensive and precise measures of cycling and a region's bicycle culture. Accordingly, a good share of the research time will be devoted to identifying potential measures of the multiple dimensions of cycling and collecting and organizing the corresponding data. Potential explanatory variables of interest include the percentage of workers commuting by bicycle (American Community Survey), miles of bike trails and center lanes and designated bike lanes, and the community's designation as a bike friendly community (League of American Bicyclists)? Econometric methods The empirical model will relate changes in the size of a region's creative class to relevant labor market, amenity and cycling variables. We will initially estimate the 2 Labor market condition data is available from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Weather data is available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency. Crime data is available from the FBI's Uniform Crime Statistics dataset. 3 We will reach out to the Bike League for guidance in better measuring the determinants of "bike friendly." Depending on data availability, potential indicators of bike friendliness might include the presence of a bike share program (eg, Fort Collins Bike Library), on -street bike parking in high bike parking demand areas, and the use of innovative bicycle specific facilities, such as shared lane markings, and bike boxes. model using ordinary least squares. Standard tests for multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity will be performed to examine the need to re -specify the model or adopt alternative estimation techniques. Alternative estimation approaches may also be explored as the research unfolds. Policy interpretation Our primary audience is policy makers. Although we do not propose a traditional economic impact study, our results can shed light on a critical economic development issue. When framing our research question and discussing our results we will carefully describe how our endeavor can offer prescriptions to local governments pursuing strategies revolving around attracting and retaining creative workers. Given that we will define several variables regarding different aspects of a regions cycling environment, our results should lend themselves to fairly detailed recommendations. This study provides an initial, overall understanding that the investment in cycling does or does not have an influence on attracting the young educated workforce. While the results will be significant to the City of Fort Collins, it is hoped that other cities, both in Colorado and elsewhere, will use them when planning cycling related infrastructure and programs. Start and End Dates The project is expected to last nearly 5 months. We would like to begin as soon as possible. (A possible timeframe in January -May 2012). Research Task Project week(s) Literature review 1-3 Data collection 4-7 Data analysis 8-11 Writing methods and results 12-16 Deliver final product 17 Project Budget Total Graduate Research Assistant $2,500 toward tuition expenses $4,023 toward GRA stipend $6,523 Research Assistant $10 per hour for 90 hours plus 0.9% fringe benefits $908 Total Indirect Costs $7,431 Indirect Costs 31% of total direct cost base of $7,431 $2,304 Project Total $9,735 Related Readings Florida, Richard. 2011. America's Top Citiesfor Bike Commuting: Happier, Too. The Atlantic. (www.theatlantic.com/life/archive/2011/06/americas-top-cities-for-bike- co m m u ti ng-happ i er-to o / 240 2 65 /) Florida, Richard. 2002. The Rise Of The Creative Class: And How It's Transforming Work, Leisure, Community And Everyday Life. Basic Books. Glaeser, Edward. 2011. Triumph of the City: How Our Greatest Invention Makes Us Richer, Smarter, Greener, Healthier, and Happier. Penguin Press. Greenwood, Michael and Gary Hunt. 1989. "Jobs Versus Amenities in the Analysis of Metropolitan Migration;' Journal of Urban Economics 25(1):1-16. Greenwood, Michael. 1975. "Research on Internal Migration in the United States: A Survey;' Journal of Economic Literature 13(2):397-433. Ronald Whisler et al. 2008. "Quality of Life and the Migration of the College - Educated: A Life -Course Approach," Growth and Change 39(1):58-94.