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HomeMy WebLinkAboutRESPONSE - RFP - P968 ECONOMIC AND MARKET STUDY 21834 (2)particular type of research, and we do not recommend making the resource investment in this method compared to other more accurate methods. Method S. Examine existing data records. Overall, the most promising single approach is the use of existing Census PUMS data to develop profiles and estimates of overcrowded households, because it accomplishes two purposes: both identifying the profiles of overcrowded households while also identifying the proportions of households. Corona has specific expertise in examining specialized Census data that can provide information within households, including rental households in single-family homes and other types of households. Corona's approach will be as follows: We will develop profiles of overcrowded households in Fort Collins, such as the ages, occupations, race/ethnic backgrounds, housing type, and mobility of these types of households.' Using these special Census data, we can identify issues such as: a. Are these households disproportionately students or are they "working households?" b. What types of housing do these households live in — single-family or multi -family? c. Are these households homeowners or renters? d. Are there children in these households? e. What are the income profiles of the individuals living in these households? The only risks with this approach are that there will not be enough data on ordinance - violating households to develop statistically strong profiles, and/or that those households will he on Census forms to cover up any overcrowding. These issues will not be known until the data are examined. The other weakness of the data, the inability to assign findings to specific neighborhoods, can be addressed statistically in the next step. 2. We will then define profiles of overcrowded households and compare them to specific neighborhoods in Fort Collins (as defined by Census definitions of `Block Groups') to define the vulnerability of particular neighborhoods to these types of large unrelated households. To provide insight about the level of detail, an example of a typical Fort Collins Block Group boundary is shown below. I For the purposes of this report, the tern "overcrowded" refers to the RFP's definition of a household that includes more than three unrelated adults. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 5 CORONA RESEARCH TASK GROUP 2: IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF ORDINANCE ENFORCEMENT ON CURRENT SITUATION This task group answers the following questions: What will be the impact on tenants of a strict enforcement of the "no more than 3-unrelated" ordinance? Would vacancies accommodate these displaced tenants currently? Will there be a change in the average cost to rent housing? Will the number of single-family rental homes increase or decline? (Or, will the number of owner - occupied homes increase or decline?) If the answer to "a" (above) is yes, where will these changes most likely occur? What will be the impact on single family neighborhoods of a strict enforcement of the "no more than 3-unrelated" ordinance? How will property values be affected currently? Impact Model of Ordinance Enforcement on Vacancies and Rental Prices. The calculation of vacancy rates for rentals is a complicated topic, since many rentals are made informally, and therefore don't enter any type of external records system. Additionally, new construction of rental units is highly variable, particularly since many rentals are often constructed in large blocs and in a relatively quick response to market demand. With these factors, in mind, the best approach to examining rental impacts is to build a mathematical scenario model that provides predictions of impacts based on assumptions about key conditions. As inputs for the model, Corona will review the following types of information: We will review the Colorado Division of Housing's current multi -family rental vacancy estimates and trends. 2. We will review new multi -family rental construction trends via the U.S. Census' data on building permit allocations. 3. We will include all information and conclusions from Task Group I of this project, described earlier. 4. We will use Census data on vacancies by unit type to develop estimates for total numbers of vacancies in Fort Collins (including both single-family and multi -family units). A profile will be developed of rent asked for vacant units versus the incomes of individuals/families in overcrowded units (which will be developed for Question 1 earlier). Using these various sources of information, we will develop a predictive impact model to prepare estimates of future trends in the rental market and the impact of potential displaced tenants on that ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 7 CORONA RESEARCH TASK GROUP 3. SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF FUTURE RENTAL ENVIRONMENT This task group answers the following questions: Would vacancies accommodate these displaced tenants five years from now? Ten years from now? How will property values be affected five years from now? Ten years from now? How will the Fort Collins housing market be affected by the Colorado State University strategy to increase enrollment by 5,000 students in the nest 5 —10 years, including proportional increases in faculty and staff? Upon completion of the impact model in Task Group 2, Corona can add an additional component to develop future scenarios, taking into account construction trends, demographic changes, and any anticipated one-time shifts in the market. Those shifts will include ongoing shifts in the population, as well as potential one-time changes including both the displacement of renters currently in violation of the "unrelated adult ordinance" and the addition of additional student populations. The demand model will include an option to increase demand in selected market segments individually or simultaneously, and will compare baseline scenarios against growth or displacement scenarios. As part of our work scope, Corona will provide the following: 1. Estimates of the number of ordinance violators in the city, and to the extent that sufficient data are available, profiles of those violators. 2. Other relevant findings from a public survey. 3. Profiles of Fort Collins neighborhoods and the estimated presence of ordinance violators. 4. An analysis of the impact of single-family rentals on property values in Fort Collins. 5. An impact analysis (and model) of the impact of ordinance enforcement on vacancy rates, rental prices, single-family home rentals, and property values. 6. Projections of the intermediate and long-term impacts of ordinance enforcement and university growth on the rental market for single-family homes and other types of housing. 7. A report describing all methodologies, assumptions, analyses, findings, and conclusions. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 9 CORONA RESEARCH These are merely some examples of cost -saving options and do not represent the only available options. We would be glad to discuss other ideas as well. Additionally, other potential tasks are not included in this proposal even though they might be of use, due to the fact that they go beyond the base requirements of the RFP. Primary research such as focus groups or interviews with renters and/or landlords can be added to the work scope if deemed desirable by the City. We would be glad to amend the proposal in that way if so requested. This project can be completed as scoped by the February 18, 2005, deadline as long as the contract is initiated in early January. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 21 CORONA RESEARCH Research and Analysis Conducted geographic area specific research for the Mile High United Way to (it'd) determine current availability of out -of -school programs as well as the potential need for future programs to be offered by non-profit providers. Presented these findings to client committee. • Analyzed multiple focus groups on romance novel reading habits and prepared written report with key findings to client • Analyzed and reported on a series of six focus groups for African American and Hispanic men that focused on their attitudes toward healthcare, as well as issues of access and possible communication strategies. • Analyzed multiple focus groups on possible HOV lane names and logos for T-REX highway construction project and prepared written report with key findings to client. • Researched existing health disparities among minority populations in the Denver area and reported these to client • Analyzed customer service processes for funds transfer transactions in a large intermnonal customer service department at a large financial institution and coordinated their transfer to a new location. • Designed survey for congregational members of member churches within a faith - based ministry so that faith -based health programs could be evaluated based on awareness, knowledge, and behavior change. • Designed a survey that was administered to respondents under the influence of alcohol who had chosen to participate in a free cab ride program initiated to reduce the number of drunk drivers on roads during popular holidays. • Designed a mail -based survey and analyzed data to compare the current human services delivery system in a county with needs assessment data to determine gaps in service. • Analyzed and reported on Colorado traffic safety data, state public information efforts, and state law enforcement efforts as they pertained to a statewide seatbelt awareness campaign. • Analyzed physicians' media habits, preferences for media messages, and preferences for hospital services based on responses in focus groups over two consecutive years. • Led training and logistics for a community -based door-to-door surveying effort as part of a comprehensive needs assessment in which door-to-door surveys were conducted to ensure proper representation of low-income households in a county- wide survey. • Managed project with 9 Spanish -la g "o focus groups conducted throughout three states to measure opinions and attitudes of Spanish-speaking Hispanics toward the yellow pages telephone book. • Designed and conducted a survey for a large manufacturing company to determine customer segments in the spring wire connector market and to prepare perceptual maps of product attributes. • Utilized primary and secondary market research and analysis techniques to perform strategic market segment analysis and recommend a promotional marketing strategy for a new market segment of Ford Motor Company. • Analyzed juvenile crime data for a Wyoming county and compared this data against similarly sized counties as well as examining crime rate trends.