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HomeMy WebLinkAboutRESPONSE - RFP - P968 ECONOMIC AND MARKET STUDY 21834R E S E A R C H December 29, 2004 Selection Committee City of Fort Collins' Purchasing Division 215 North Mason St., 2nd floor Fort Collins, Colorado 80524 RE: RFP for P968, "Economic and Market Study" Dear Members of Selection Committee: Please find enclosed our proposal to conduct an impact study and projections of the rental market and rental pricing for the City of Fort Collins. We believe that you will find our firm to be uniquely qualified to create a cost-effective, high -quality study for your organization. I also appreciate the additional time allowed for responses to this RFP. As I mentioned in my conversation with Jim O'Neill earlier this month, my firm is very interested in this project and I had been carrying the RFP with me on some out-of-town business earlier this month. With the complexity of the project, I wanted to write the proposal myself J lead our quantitative research practice) but simply didn't have the time in light of other project deadlines. I am quite pleased that the RFP schedule was adjusted to allow us to submit a proposal, and thank you for allowing us to compete. If you have any questions, or if we can better tailor the proposal to meet your needs, feel free to contact me at 303-894-8246 or at kevin@coronaresearch.com. We appreciate the opportunity to present our services to you. Sincerely, Kevin Raines President Corona Research, Inc., is a market research and strategic consulting firm located in Denver, Colorado. Founded in 1999, the firm's mission is to provide cost-effective, accurate information and support to decision makers. We provide a variety of research, analysis and consulting services, including the following. Original Research • Telephone, mail, and intercept surveys • Focus groups • Key person interviews • On -site data collection Analysis Services • Demographic profiles and projections • Needs assessments • Target market studies and market segmentations • Feasibility studies • Social and fiscal impact studies • Program evaluation • Optimization analyses Consulting Services • Public input and meeting facilitation services • Management retreat facilitation • Management counsel • Strategic plan development We serve as a "one stop" research organization for several of our clients. Corona's direct clients are almost evenly split between private sector firms, non-profit organizations, and government agencies. However, the most common end users of our research are government agencies. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 10 CORONA RESEARCH OUR FIRM'S QUALITY AND REPUTATION Corona Research has a strong commitment to quality in our work products. We offer several indicators of our firm's quality and reputation on the following page. ■ Repeat Business. The single greatest indicator of any firm's quality is their repeat business rate. - 49% of Corona's revenues are derived from repeat business. - 28% of our revenues are derived from referrals by satisfied past clients. ■ Awards. In 2002, Corona received: - An Award of Excellence from the Small Business Administration for our work on a NHTSA research project - A special award from the Parker Fire Protection District in recognition of a research project related to Graduated Driver Licensing we conducted in Douglas County, Colorado. - Finalist Recognition for a community service award from the Denver Business Journal - Karla Raines, the firm's vice-president, was a finalist for Outstanding Businesswoman of the Year. ■ Growth. Corona Research is growing primarily through word of mouth by our satisfied clients, and that growth has been phenomenal. - In June 2004, the Denver Business Journal identified Corona Research as the seventeenth - fastest growing small private business in Colorado_ based on three-year revenue trends. (Coincidentally, this was our second year in a row being ranked 17th in growth.) - In April 2003, the Denver Bujiness Journal identified Corona Research as the seventeenth - fastest growing small private business in Colorado, based on three-year revenue trends. - In April 2002, the Denver Business Journal identified Corona Research as the third -fastest growing small private business in Colorado based on three-year revenue trends. - Corona was recognized by the Denver Business Journal as the 17th-1argest management consulting firm in the Denver metro area for 2002, even before two additional years of significant growth. ■ Recognition. Our staffs work has been quoted widely, including references in: - Time Magazine - USA Today - American Demographics magazine - Numerous local publications ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 11 CORONA RESEARCH OUR FIRM'S GEOGRAPHIC RANGE Corona staff has conducted site -specific research or consulting in 28 states across the U.S. and in 36 Colorado counties. 38 percent of our lifetime project revenues are conducted in Colorado communities outside the Denver Metropolitan Area. A sample of the firm's client list is provided on the following page, focusing on our transportation research clients. Descriptions of relevant past projects are provided later in the proposal. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 12 CORONA RESEARCH Selected Corona Research Clients 1999-2004 Adams County Office of Community Development, Colorado Adams County School District 14, Colorado Castle Rock Chamber of Commerce, Castle Rock, CO The Children's Hospital, Denver, CO City of Fort Collins, TransFort Transit Service Committee to Reform Cole Middle School, Denver, CO Colorado Department of Transportation (9 projects, 4 subcontracts) Colorado State Patrol (2 projects) Cordy & Company Public Relations, Chevy Chase, MD (7 projects) Delta County, Colorado Denver Health Medical Center (2 projects) Denver Public Schools — Community Education Department (5 projects) DMJM-Harris, Denver, CO Douglas County Safe Drivers Coalition City of Fort Collins, CO Greeley Police Department, Greeley, CO Habitat for Humanity of Metro Denver Human Services, Inc., Denver, CO Merry Housing, Inc. (2 projects) Mi Casa Resource Center for Women, Denver, CO (3 projects) Minnesota Department of Public Safety, St. Paul, MN National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (3 subcontracts) New Mexico Energy, Minerals, and Natural Resources Department* North Front Range Transportation and Air Quality Council, Fort Collins, CO Pueblo Neighborhood Services Presbyterian St. Luke's Medical Center, Denver CO (2 projects) Pueblo Police Department, Pueblo, CO Rocky Mountain Housing Development Corporation Rocky Mountain Injury Prevention Consortium Romance Writers of America, Houston, TX (5 projects) Rose Community Foundation, Denver, CO Southeast Corridor Constructors (T-Rea), Centennial, CO Sweetwater County, Wyoming (3 projects) Universal Lending, Denver, CO VMS, Inc., Richmond, VA (Street Maintenance Contractor) (3 subcontracts) * - Subcontractor m lateen team. This represents only a sample of c iems. Additional client listings are available m request ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 13 CORONA RESEARCH SAMPLES OF RELATED PROJECTS In considering the nature of this project, we see two major key functions: demographic and economic model development, and data analysis and interpretation. While the project is related to housing, it requires a greater knowledge of mathematical and demographic modeling than housing policy. Therefore, we will provide selected examples that relate to our model -building skills. Additionally, we are firm believers in describing the qualifications of our project team, rather than relying on the fiction of "company experience." Some of our competitors routinely cite "firm experience" when in reality the analysts who did the cited work have long since left the firm. We do not approve of that practice. SAMPLE OF HOUSING DEMAND MODEL DEVELOPMENT From 1996 through 1998, Kevin designed and built a complex predictive model of housing demand that took into account the effects of age, income, and family structure on housing ownership choices, as well as migration and other factors. The model was used in several states on a statewide and local basis to develop current estimates and five-year predictions of demands for ownership housing and rental housing by income level. Under Kevin's supervision, the model was used in Pueblo, Colorado Springs, Yuma (Arizona), and statewide in Indiana, West Virginia, and South Carolina. Kevin developed this model while employed at another consulting firm, but was retained by that firm after founding Corona Research to run the model for the City of Pueblo since no one remaining at the original firm had the expertise to do so. Kevin had already developed housing demand projections for the City, but was retained to develop additional detailed projections of "frustrated owner" demand, those households that were interested in home ownership but could not do so due to income. Omrpoject kam i representation on thispTect Kevin Rainer was the .role developer of the demand model SAMPLE OF HOUSING ISSUES PRIMARY RESEARCH In 2002 and early 2003, Corona conducted a large community needs assessment for Adams County, Colorado. Housing was one of the nine major areas explored in this study, which included demographic research, a large community survey, 13 focus groups in English and Spanish, a resource inventory, and other tasks. In addition to the primary research, a significant task for Corona was to explore the concept of neighborhoods among residents, prepare demographic profiles of the county and its communities, and identify and map neighborhood resources. Reference: Adams County Office of Community Development Contact: Mr. Keith Frausto, Director Telephone: 303453-8520 E-Mail: kfrausto@co.adams.co.us Our project kam's representatmo on thir project. Kevin Rainer kd the primary quantitative research (smrvgs). Leo Lewis was the loguhed and analyris lead on the qualitative rerearrh (focusgmmps). Astrid Sawn was insolmd in developing demographic pmfiks of rommmnitier. Karla Raines of Corona (not on the project team) kd the overall project. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 14 CORONA RESEARCH SAMPLE OF DEMOGRAPHIC SEGMENTATION MODEL DEVELOPMENT In 2001 and early 2002, Corona was retained to develop a needs assessment for the low-income population of Sweetwater County, Wyoming. This project included the development of a detailed demographic profile of the low-income population. Using only existing data, Corona developed a model to identify the predominant characteristics of the low-income population, such as their work status, disability status, the presence of small children, retirement status, student status, and other segmentation variables. Reference: Sweetwater County, Wyoming Contact: Ms. Krisena Marchal, Grants Coordinator Telephone: 307-872-6470 E-Mail: kmarchal@yahoo.com Our"ect team's representation on this project. Kevin Baines developed the segmentation model Leo Lewis was involved in a followup project to develop an allocation model to track community investment in various market segments of the population in poverty (children, unemployed, disahled, etc.) SAMPLE OF NEIGHBORHOOD SEGMENTATION MODEL DEVELOPMENT Over the past five years, Corona has conducted numerous studies in local communities to develop estimates of seat belt use. As part of this process, we have to design sophisticated neighborhood -based sampling systems and weighting systems to ensure proper data collection and calculations of seat belt use rates. We have developed a model to examine the demographics of a city, segment that city into neighborhoods, and then weight each neighborhood based on population and vehicle -miles traveled, in order to conduct our calculations quickly and efficiently. We have used this model on assignments in Greeley, Pueblo, Colorado Springs, Denver, and the collective Denver metro area. We have used the model in modified form in smaller communities such as Sterling, Yuma, La Junta, and Trinidad. Reference: Rocky Mountain Research & Prevention Institute Contact: Dr. Lisa Van Bramer, Executive Director Telephone: 303-521-7089 E-Mail: coloradokidslst@aol.com Our project team' representation on thu pTeck Kevin Baines bar kd each of these neighborbood segmentation studies. Astrid Savitd has led the implementation of the nsearrb for seceml communities, and has conducted the segmentations forpro as in Greeley, Pwhlo, and the DenverMeho Area SAMPLE OF DEMOGRAPHIC OPTIMIZATION MODEL DEVELOPMENT In 2000, Corona was retained to serve as the research lead (in a subcontracting role) on a large federal research project to examine the traffic safety attitudes of African Americans. As one portion of that project, Corona was asked to identify the six communities in the United States that best ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 15 CORONA RESEARCH represented the diversity of social, demographic, and economic conditions of African Americans in this country. Corona developed a very large mathematical optimization model to evaluate potential combinations of communities, based on 17 different measures of social and economic conditions. Corona developed profiles of every one of the 3,141 counties in the United States, with an emphasis on African Americans, and then ran the model to identify the six communities that, in combination, represented the best sites for this study. Corona won an Award of Excellence from the Small Business Administration for our work on this project. Reference: Cordy & Company Public Relations Contact: Ms. Sylvia Cordy, President Telephone: 240-497-LW Omrpmject team° mprarentabon on thin pr ject Kevin Rainer led thu aw#su effort and mndwxrd all analyses SAMPLE OF HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX DEVELOPMENT In 1995, Kevin Raines of Corona Research developed home ownership and rental HAI models for the City of Fort Collins. That project was essentially the precursor to this RFP, and much of the RFP describes the actual work that Kevin Raines performed, working for Dickson Robbin and Ken Waido of the City. While this was not technically a Corona Research project, Kevin Raines of Corona performed all of the analytical work on the project while employed at another consulting firm. Kevin left that firm in 1999 to found Corona Research, which has swiftly grown into one of the larger pure research firms in Colorado, with six analysts. In terms of references for this project, we have lost contact with the City's project manager, Dickson Robbin, since he returned to Canada in the mid- to late 1990s. We understand that Ken Waido, who had final oversight of the project, is still with the City, and hope that the City was pleased with Mr. Raines' original HAI model. Our pmject team'.r rzprerentation on thir project Kevin Rainer developed the model and conducted all analyses, training, and reporting. OUR PAST EXPERIENCE IN FORT COLLINS Corona and our staff have a long and successful history of working with the City of Fort Collins, and for clients in the city. Examples include: ■ In 2002, Corona conducted focus group research in Fort Collins and other communities as part of a program study for the Colorado Department of Transportation. Kevin Raines and Astrid Savitri conducted the focus group. Contact Mairi Nelson, Public Information Officer, Colorado Department of Transportation. (303) 202-0383, mairi.nelsonna,dotstate.co.us ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 16 CORONA RESEARCH ■ In 2001, Corona completed a feasibility study for a new independent Metropolitan Planning Organization, rather than the then -existing model that received support from the City. Karla Raines of Corona's staff led this project (Karla is not part of the project team for this assignment, but is available to share information since she is Corona's vice-president) Contact: Vicky McLane, Program Manager, North Front Range MPO, 970-224-6059, E- Mail: vmclangQd.fort-collins.co.us a In 2000, Corona conducted a coordination and cooperation study to examine areas where the TransFort/Dial-A-Ride Service and the Poudre School District Transportation Department could share resources or operations to gain efficiency. Kevin Raines was the project manager for this assignment Contact: GayLene Rossiter, Planning Specialist, TransFort, 970-224-6195, E-MaiL- grossiter&ci.fort-collins.co.us ■ In 1995, Kevin Raines of Corona prepared the HAI model for the City, ran the model to develop baseline HAI's, and trained City staff in its use and interpretation. ■ In 1994, Kevin Raines of Corona was the lead research analyst on a survey of housing affordability issues in Fort Collins. The City's project manager for that study was Ms. Lani Van Eck. We are no longer in contact with Ms. Van Eck, since she left the City's employ in approximately 1995. PROJECT STAFF Corona currently has six staff members. All projects are led by a partner with ten or more years of work experience, and the median work experience level of our staff is nine years. All of our staff members hold master's degrees in the areas of business, public affairs (demographics), social work, mass communications, or economics. Every staff member except one has at least five years of professional experience. Resumes for each of our staff members who will be assigned to this project are included at the end of this proposal. Meanwhile, the project role is given for each staff member below. vin Raines, the president of Corona Research, has over 14 years URof analytical experience, including nearly ten years working in the area of policy research and demographics. During that time, he has completed over 100 consulting projects as either the project leader or lead analyst These projects have included policy impact and outcome evaluations, fiscal studies, needs assessments, data analyses, demographic studies, market analyses, and field research such as surveys and focus groups. Kevin is a past volunteer member of the state's Child Fatality Review Board (Motor Vehicle Subcommittee), which investigates causal factors behind child deaths in Colorado, and has completed Colorado Multiple Independent Review Board coursework in research ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 17 CORONA RESEARCH ethics. He is also a member of the Marketing Research Association and the Denver Advertising Federation. Kevin has been involved in housing affordability studies and needs assessments in Fort Collins, Colorado Springs, and Pueblo in Colorado, as well as other local or statewide studies in Arizona, South Dakota, Indiana, West Virginia, and South Carolina. As part of the South Carolina project, Kevin developed a housing ownership and rental demand model that provided current and five-year projections for rental and ownership demand. The model was then used on subsequent studies in Arizona, Colorado, West Virginia, and Indiana. Kevin founded Corona Research in 1999, and serves as the company's president. Prior to founding the firm, he was the senior employee at a small consulting firm, leading a large number of projects during a six -year tenure. From 1986 through 1991, he was an operations analyst in the engineering technology division of the McDonnell Douglas Corporation, where he developed computer simulation models of air to air combat and analyzed the effects of bullet strikes on planes. Kevin holds a master's degree in public affairs (emphasis in demographics) from the University of Texas at Austin, and a bachelor's degree in aerospace engineering from the University of Missouri - Rolla. Pm� jea Rol- Kevin will serve as "ea manager for this prnyea Kevin will kad the model development, participate in the data collection, and will serve as the contact managerfor the lean. Leo Lewis, a research analyst at Corona Research, participates in a variety of market research, data analysis and marketing. Leo has worked on analyses of media marketing impacts, transportation, and specialized health issues, and he has a niche in Corona for the analysis of focus groups. Before joining Corona, Leo completed strategic market segmentation analysis and product attribute research projects with two Fortune 500 companies. Leo has also been self-employed as a consultant and as an author of specialized natural health care books. Leo holds a Master of Business Administration from The University of Texas at Austin and a bachelor's degree in finance from Texas Tech University. Prviea Role- Leo will be the lead developer of the predictive model, and will partidpate in key person interviews. Astrid Savitri, a research analyst at Corona Research, is the firm's lead resource in multivariate analysis, econometric modeling, and various types of quantitative research. She also serves as the firm's cartographer for projects involving the mapping or geoanalysis of data. Astrid has conducted numerous analytical studies at the firm. Astrid's experience with Corona includes work in the areas of transportation, poverty, health care marketing, consumer product research, and after - school programs. Prior to joining Corona, Astrid served as a consultant with Synergy Associates and with AC Nielsen, both in Jakarta, Indonesia. Astrid is fluent in Bahasa Indonesia. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 18 CORONA RESEARCH She holds a Master's Degree in Economics from the University of Colorado -Denver, and a Bachelor's Degree in Industrial Engineering from the Bandung Institute of Technology in Bandung, Indonesia. Project Bole- Astrid =11 provide the initial data analysis and collection for the predictive model, under Kevin'r .supervision. Katie Pursley, a planning analyst at Corona Research, provides strategic planning services and qualitative research support at the firm. Katie holds a Master's Degree in Social Work from the University of Denver, and a Bachelor's Degree in Sociology from Santa Clara University. Project Bole- Katie will particpate in key person inkrziews. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 19 CORONA RESEARCH R E S E A R C H ECONOMIC AND MARKET STUDY PROPOSAL FOR THE CITY OF FORT COLLINS REFERENCE NUMBER: P968 Submitted by: Corona Research, Inc. 1630 Welton Street, Suite 525 Denver, CO 80202 Phone: 303-894-8246 Fax: 303-894-9651 E-Mail: kevin@coronaresearch.com Web Site: www.coronaresearch.com © Corona Research, 2004 We provide below a budget for the project as a whole, itemized by task. 140 90 Partner Analyst Task Group 1 Hours Price Hours Price Expenses 1-1 Conduct Public Survey 12 $1,680 55 $4,950 $7,600 1-2 Conduct Census PUMS Data Analysis 8 $1.120 32 $2.880 4 VS. Total $54,530 The overall task cost is driven by the fact that there are several standalone tasks within the requested work scope: identifying numbers of ordinance violators (Tasks 1-1 through 1-4), examining relationship of property values and single-family rentals (Task 1-5), developing and implementing the impact model (Task 2-1 through 2-3) for both vacancies and price, and the development of future projections (Tasks 3-1 and 3-2). This budget represents our price to provide all services as requested in the RFP. We would be glad to discuss alterations to the work scope if the budget above is not acceptable to the City. Cost - saving options might include: 1. Limit the impact analysis to current impacts rather than long-term impacts, which would eliminate Task Group 3 and reduce the project cost by $7,920. 2. Eliminate Task 1-5, the analysis of the effect of single-family rentals on property values in neighborhoods, which would reduce the project cost by $5,280. 3. Eliminate Task 2-3, the price impact study of problem properties, which would reduce the project cost by $4,260. 4. Another cost -savings option would be to conduct the study on a citywide basis rather than examining sub -city regions. We can provide an exact figure for cost savings if the City is interested in this option. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 20 CORONA RESEARCH The RFP cites several questions that must be answered in this proposal. On this page, we provide a convenient guide for the selection committee to locate and identify our responses. Each question is discussed below. HAS YOUR FIRM EVER PERFORMED A PROJECT OF THIS NATURE? IF SO, PLEASE DESCRIBE UP TO THREE SUCH PROJECTS. SPECIFY THE SCOPE OF WORK FOR THE PROJECT, AND THE TOPICS YOU WERE ASKED TO INVESTIGATE. PLEASE PROVIDE THREE CLIENT REFERENCES FOR YOUR PERFORMANCE IN THIS TYPE OF PROJECT. Samples of the project team's experience is set forth beginning on page 14 of this proposal. These are projects that were completed by members of the actual project team that will work on this study. As mentioned earlier, we will note that some of our competitors will claim "firm experience" in spite of high staff turnover rates. We recommend that "firm experience" be viewed with a healthy skepticism if a firm cannot reproduce the project team. 2. DESCRIBE YOUR FIRM, ITS HISTORY AND SIZE, THE LOCATIONS IN WHICH IT OPERATES AND THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES. The firm's history, size, locations, and number of employees is discussed beginning on page 9 of the RFP. 3. PROVIDE INFORMATION ON THE PRINCIPAL PROFESSIONAL WHO WOULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PROJECT. WHAT IS HIS/HER PROFESSIONAL BACKGROUND AND EXPERIENCE? IF YOU EXPECT TO UTILIZE OTHER PERSONNEL TO ACCOMPLISH THE DUTIES SPECIFIED IN THIS RFP, PROVIDE THE SAME INFORMATION REQUESTED ABOVE FOR EACH OF THE PERSONNEL LISTED. Kevin Raines, the proposed project manager for this team, is introduced on page 17, along with the other team members for this project Resumes for each team member are provided at the end of the proposal. 4. HAS THE PRINCIPAL PROFESSIONAL PERFORMED A PROJECT OF THIS NATURE? IF SO, PLEASE DESCRIBE THREE SUCH PROJECTS. SPECIFY THE SCOPE OF WORK FOR THE PROJECT, AND THE TOPICS YOU WERE ASKED TO INVESTIGATE, IF DIFFERENT FROM THOSE LISTED UNDER ITEM 1 (ABOVE). Kevin Raines has indeed conducted similar projects, as noted on page 14 of the proposal and in his full resume. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 22 CORONA RESEARCH 5. DESCRIBE ANY PENDING LITIGATION AGAINST YOUR FIRM. There is no pending litigation against Corona Research. 6. DESCRIBE ANY LITIGATION THAT HAS BEEN BROUGHT AGAINST YOUR FIRM DURING THE LAST 3 YEARS. Corona has not faced any litigation in the history of our company. Importantly, none of our clients have ever faced litigation as a result of our work, either, which sets us apart from some of our competitors. 7. DESCRIBE THE PROFESSIONAL LIABILITY COVERAGE CARRIED BY YOUR FIRM. Corona maintains a $1 million professional liability coverage policy. We can provide documentation upon request. There has never been a claim or any threat of a claim against this policy. 8. BEYOND THE STATED SCOPE OF THIS PROJECT, WHAT ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE SUCCESSFUL COMPLETION OF THIS PROJECT? HAVE ANY VITAL QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS BEEN OMITTED? We have a good understanding of the City's goals for this project. The only additional information we would seek would be a short brainstorming session to ensure that the City doesn't hold data records that might be useful in quantifying the extent of large unrelated households in the city. 9. DESCRIBE ANY PROBLEMS YOU FORESEE IN YOUR ABILITY TO CONDUCT THE SERVICES i DESCRIBED IN THIS RFP. This is a challenging project, with three main stumbling blocks. We believe that we are addressing each major challenge to the greatest extent possible, but would welcome discussions about alternate approaches, too. The first challenge is the likely unwillingness of ordinance violators to report their household size and structure. This information will not be given willingly or easily, since these households have an incentive to conceal their living arrangements. Corona's approach to this challenge is to gather data in three different ways (survey, specialized census data analysis, and examination of complaints to the City) to attempt to triangulate in on the best possible estimate. Even so, we recognize (and the City should recognize) that the result figures will be estimates. A significant portion of the project cost will be devoted to making these the best estimates possible. The second challenge is that rental vacancy rates and rental rates are difficult to obtain, since many rental arrangements do not enter any type of public record. Our response to this challenge will again be a triangulation of data sources, using both the detailed census data on vacancies in 2000 in ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 23 CORONA RESEARCH conjunction with the very limited data compiled by the Colorado Division of Housing. If the City has other local sources of rental vacancy and price data, we would welcome exploring it The third challenge is the fact that developing forecasts of rental vacancies and prices is inherently very uncertain. The private sector tends to react to changes in the marketplace by building new units, thereby acting as a brake on large-scale changes in the rental environment. Additionally, single-family homes may be converted to rentals or sold to owners as markets change. In short, the market is dynamic and therefore includes an inherent uncertainty. Corona will address this to the extent possible by noting large discontinuities in the market that might be addressed quickly by the private sector, and also by using a trend/capture analysis to estimate changes in construction rates. 10. WHAT IS YOUR ESTIMATED COST TO COMPLETE THIS PROJECT? PLEASE DESCRIBE THE METHODOLOGY USED TO DERIVE YOUR ESTIMATE. Our cost proposal, along with suggested cost -savings strategies, is presented on page 20 of this proposal. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 24 CORONA RESEARCH To summarize this proposal, we believe that there are several compelling reasons to retain Corona Research for this project. These include: 1. We are a proven commodity. We are quite familiar with housing demand models, having developed such models in the past. 2. We do high -quality work. Most clients who hire us once end up hiring us again ... and again, as evidenced by our 77 percent repeat and referral rate. We believe that this is the single greatest indicator of any firm's work quality. . 3. We offer highly qualified staff. The Corona team consists wholly of experienced researchers and consultants. All of our staff members hold master's degrees and significant experience. Your project won't get shunted off to junior staff here — we don't even have junior staffl 4. What you see is what you get. The projects we list in our qualifications were actually completed by our current staff, and most projects were completed within the past 24 months. Beware of some companies that ate "company experience" with no guarantee that the people who did the work are still with the firm and will be assigned to the project. 5. We are cost -competitive. While we prefer to compete on quality rather than price, we find that we are also usually very competitive in cost as long as all bidders are using the same analytical assumptions and providing a similar level of service. 6. We are a "one -stop shop." Many of our clients retain us for multiple projects. Due to our generalist nature, we can provide a variety of research services without climbing the learning curve each time. Our clients save money and effort by taking advantage of our diversity. 7. We have a stable management structure. Because we behave ethically and fairly, Corona doesn't have the inherent conflicts of interests and organizational stresses of some of our competitors, with their "revolving door partners." Our firm is stable and solid, and has a low rate of employee turnover. We have never lost a partner in the history of the firm. If you would like to examine partner turnover at research firms, you can examine firms' past websites at htW://www.archive.=/web/web.phhp. This is a great tool for analyzing the stability of consulting firms or other types of vendors. 8. Our partners are involved in the work. Corona's partners maintain a reasonable project load, in order to maintain project quality. Our partners are actively engaged in projects. 9. We're lean and we're hungry. Don't misunderstand, our firm is thriving and growing. (Indeed, for the past three years the Denver Business Journal has named us among the 20 fastest -growing small private firm in the state) However, we are still expanding, even after six years of nonstop growth. What does this mean for our clients? It means that we take our work seriously, and we will satisfy you. We do not miss deadlines, we do not ask for special treatment, and we do not ask for budget revisions. We just want to satisfy our clients, do good work, and develop long-term relationships. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 25 CORONA RESEARCH Comprehensive resumes for key staff are provided on the following pages. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 26 CORONA RESEARCH Kevin Raines Work History Education Examples of Relevant Project Experience Field Research — Surveys Focus Groups Interviews Observational Studies 1999 — Present 1993-1999 Corona Research, Inc. President Denver, CO Browne, Bortz & Coddington Denver, CO Associate to Senior Associate to Senior Consultant to Partner -Select 1992 Kyung Hee University Seoul, South Korea Research Intern and English Teacher 1986-1991 McDonnell Douglas Corp. St. Louis, Missouri Associate Engineer to Engineer — Combat Operations Analyst, Engineering Technology Division 1993 University of Texas at Austin Austin, TX Master of Public Affairs, emphasis in demographics, Robert S. Strauss Scholar 1986 University of Missouri -Rolla Rolla, MO Bachelor of Science, Aerospace Engineering, Magna Cum Laude • Currently managing a statewide population survey to examine issues and concerns about mountain lions. • Provided design consultation on an internal employee survey for a client of WisdomNet, Inc., to assess the relationships between specific job skills and employees' roles in their company. • Overseeing the design and implementation of a survey of selected neighborhoods in Colorado Springs, Colorado, to assess opinions about homebuilders in that marketplace. • Managed the completion of a series of Spanish -language and English -language focus groups in Jefferson County, Colorado, to assess library usage and library services. • Managed a membership survey of landscaping companies and landscape architects for a large trade association The goal of the survey was to assess industry issues, priorities, needs, and communication preferences as they relate to the trade association • Designed and analyzed a nationwide survey of financial planners to assess their marketing strategies, marketing partnerships, and preferences for receiving marketing materials from strategic marketing and coaching firms. (id) Field Research (com d) • Overseeing a public survey in Aurora, Colorado, to examine issues related to water conservation and water billing methods. • Conducting a survey in south Texas of four key market segments to assess public perceptions of a local community college. The key market segments include teenage prospective college students; the parents of teenage prospective college students, past college attendees, and people who have never attended college. • Managed the completion of several focus groups in English and Spanish to assess Hispanic vehicle buyers' and potential buyers' opinions of dealership experiences for both Ford dealers and dealers of other types of vehicles. • Designed and conducted a series of focus groups in California, Minnesota, Georgia, and New Jersey to assess marketing materials for a financial services firm The groups consisted of senior citizens who are demographically similar to the firm's core market The project also entailed conducting demographic studies to identify the best cities in which to conduct the research (Torrance, CA; Plymouth, MN; Alpharetta, GA; and Florham Pads NJ). • Moderated focus groups with city residents and business leaders to assess perceptions of the city of Aurora, Colorado, and identify themes that can be used in promoting the city to new businesses, citizens, and potential future residents. • Conducted a survey of the Spanish-speaking public in the Denver metro area to assess the public visibility and opinion of a prominent Hispanic businessman. • Managed and analyzed a public awareness survey of citizens in Tulsa County, Oklahoma, to assess their awareness, knowledge, and communication needs and preferences with regard to bioterrorism issues and public health issues.. • Managed the analysis of surveys of program administrators at eight Colorado college campuses to develop an environmental scan of college alcohol awareness programs and anti -impaired driving programs. • Leading a large research project to help design and assess a social marketing program aimed at improving traffic safety among the Hispanic population in the Denver metro area. The project includes focus groups in both English and Spanish, and observational surveys throughout the metro area to assess and track seat belt usage among this population segment • Designed, managed, and analyzed a survey of small business owners and decisionmakers to test the market potential for a new health coverage product. • Designed a survey to assess client satisfaction with the enrollment process for the Medicaid program in Washington, D.C.. • Designed and managed a large public survey to assess community needs in Adams County, Colorado, across nine major service areas. Developed a sampling plan to augment the survey with door to door surveys in low-income neighborhoods in the county, and participated in the door to door surveys. Surveys were available in English, Spanish, and Hmong languages. • Designed focus groups to examine community needs in Adams County, Colorado. Participated in several groups as a moderator or an observer/notetaker, including groups in both the urban and Waal areas of the county. • Conducted surveys of "partygoers" in a bar district to assess a number of issues, including self assessed blood alcohol content, then linked survey results to simultaneous portable breathalyzer tests to determine the accuracy of self -assessment of intoxication levels. Kevinx (bodd) Field Research (cont'd) • Managed and moderated a focus group to test reactions to a new web site for a large health care organization. Both content and layout were considered and discussed • Designed a set of focus groups among physicians to evaluate marketing materials aimed at increasing public images of a local hospital as well as enticing physicians to affiliate with the hospital. • Designed and analyzed a survey of writers and published authors to assess their opinions of a trade association's professional programs for published authors. • Conducted field research to examine seat belt use in the city of Greeley, Colorado. The project included an extensive demographic and statistical sampling analysis to identify appropriate locations for data collection, as well as intensive field data collection. The project was renewed the following year to develop additional figures. • Conducted an extensive field research project to assess the placement and promotion of Regency -era (1810-1830) romance novels. The project included mapping bookstores in 17 states plus the District of Columbia and then developing objective measures to examine whether Regency novels are receiving a proportionate share of promotions and desirable placements on shelves. • Designed and managed two large pre- and post -campaign statewide surveys in Minnesota to assess the effectiveness of a media campaign. • Designed and conducted a survey of patrons of a "free ride home" program conducted in a Denver bar district on New Year's Eve. This survey was an independent follow-on project to an earlier project that assessed different issues. • Designed an intercept survey of transportation and public transit issues in Northeast Colorado. Conducted intercept surveys at four county fairs in rural northeast Colorado, and managed data collection at five other fairs. • Conducted a survey of Denver metro area households to assess their awareness of mortgage lenders and their recall and opinions of a specific advertising campaign. • Conducted a nationwide survey of subscribers to a particular magazine to assess their opinions about design issues and to develop a demographic profile of subscribers. • Conducted field research to examine seat belt use in the city of Pueblo, Colorado. The project included an extensive demographic and statistical sampling analysis to identify appropriate locations for data collection, as well as intensive field data collection. As part of the project, also designed and analyzed two telephone surveys of Pueblo citizens to examine their awareness of enforcement efforts. • Designed and analyzed a large survey of writers and published authors to assess their opinions about a trade association of which they were members. • Managed a series of focus groups of young African American men to test media and marketing messages for a social marketing campaign. The project was reprised four years later to update the message and to expand the message from young men to other segments within the African American population. • Designed and managed a statewide survey of citizens to assess their opinions of, and interactions with, the Colorado State PatroL The contract was renewed two years later to examine trends in selected findings and to pursue new topics of interest. • Managed a series of three focus groups to assess consumer preferences for products and advertising for a travel services company. Kevin Raines (oonfcj • Conducted focus groups with public transit users and commuters to evaluate potential names for a 110 Occupancy Vehicle lane. • Managed a series of nine focus groups of Spanish-speaking people in Albuquerque, Phoenix, and Denver to assess consumer preferences for an information product Moderated the Albuquerque groups and handled all logistics. • Designed and conducted a survey of patrons of a "flee ride home" program conducted in a Denver bar district on St Patrick's Day. A separate survey was later conducted on New Year's Eve to assess different issues. • Designed and managed a large statewide survey to assess social norms among drinkers, for the purposes of identifying common pre -drinking planning actions. The survey was statewide, but oversampled rural populations. • Designed and managed focus groups among low-income, uninsured African American and Hispanic men to assess barriers to health care access and potential initiatives to eliminate those barriers. Groups were held in both English and Spanish. • Designed and implemented a survey of cab users in a trendy downtown nightclub and bar district The survey took place from early afternoon through the early morning hours of a Saturday holiday period • Designed a survey of awareness and opinions of a number of local hospitals, as support for a marketing initiative by a marketing firm under contract with a hospitaL • Led a national market research project to assess readership of romance novels, including market size analysis, market penetration by demographic segment; and qualitative issues regarding book buying and reading. The project includes a national survey of 1,20o readers across the United States, and focus groups in Illinois, Colorado, and Arkansas. This project is an update of a 1998 study listed elsewhere • Conducted a survey of train -related noise issues and railroad crossing safety issues in a small community in south-central Colorado. • Conducted an analysis of a national survey of 1,200 pet owners to support a trade organization's public relations effort This included basic survey tabulations as well as demographic analyses by gender, age, geographic region, and other identifying characteristics. • Designed and analyzed a survey of union members to assess and prioritize negotiating priorities in labor-management negotiations. • Designed a survey for a low-income services provider to assess the needs and the demographics of the organization's target market of young families with children. The survey findings were used to assist in the organization's identification of promising m adiets and best practices within those markets. • Managed the design and analysis of a "digital divide" survey of four low-income households in Denver. This survey, conducted in English, Spanish, and Vietnamese, examined the prevalence of computers and Internet usage in four selected neighborhoods. • Conducted two linked telephone surveys of randomly selected households in Washington, D.C. to assess residents' opinions about street maintenance in the city, the value of community participation by street maintenance contractors, and factors that should be considered in the contracting process. The two surveys were conducted six months apart to assess the impact of operational changes in the District's street maintenance process. • Designed and analyzed a survey of Douglas County, Colorado, residents and visitors to assess awareness of specific aspects of Colorado's Graduated Driver's license law. Table of Contents INTRODUCTION»»».» .............. »...... »»... ......................................... ..................................... ................... 1 OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE PROJECT........................................................................................ I PROPOSED WORK PLAN......................................................................................................................... 2 TASK GROUP 1. DOCUMENTATION AND MEASUREMENT OF CURRENTSITUATION.................................... 3 TASK GROUP 2: IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF ORDINANCE ENFORCEMENT ON CURRENT SITUATION .............. 7 TASK GROUP 3. SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF FUTURE RENTAL ENVIRONMENT ............................................... 9 CORONA'S DELIVERABLES FOR THIS PROJECT ..... ..».»»........ »...... »..... ».......... .................... »... 9 CORONA'S QUALIFICATIONS FOR THIS PROJECT ................................................... »»»...... ..... 10 OUR FIRM'S QUALITY AND REPUTATION.................................................................................................... 11 OUR FIRM'S GEOGRAPHIC RANGE.............................................................................................................. 12 SAMPLES OF RELATED PROJECTS.............................................................................................................. 14 OUR PAST EXPERIENCE IN FORT COLLINS................................................................................................ 16 PROJECTSTAFF......................................................................................................................................... 17 PROJECTBUDGET.................................................................................................................................. 20 PROFESSIONAL QUESTIONNAIRE RESPONSES............................................................................ 22 NINE COMPELLING REASONS TO HIRE CORONA RESEARCH ................................................ 25 APPENDIX. KEY STAFF RESUMES....»........»» ...... ..».».......... .................................. » Field Research (cont?d) • Designed moderators' guides for 48 NlMSA-sponsored focus groups in I inois, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, and South Carolina. Monitored focus group progress and findings. • Designed, managed, and analyzed a major survey of over 800 veterinarians, veterinary office managers, and veterinary technicians to assess a number of issues regarding their professional affiliations and their satisfaction with membership in a large professional organization. Veterinarians' surveys were segmented and targeted by ownership status and hospital accreditation. Surveys for veterinary technicians and office assistants included a special question series designed to gather information on career paths and training background • Conducted a telephone survey of randomly selected commuters from Arlington County and the City of Alexandria in Virginia, and Montgomery and Prince George's County in Maryland, to assess residents' opinions about street maintenance in the District of Columbia, the value of community participation by street maintenance contractors, and factors that should be considered in the contracting process. An important part of this project was the analysis of commuting patterns in the greater Washington -Baltimore Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area to ascertain concentrations of commuters. • Led the analysis of a complex survey of parents' use and awareness of various types of child passenger restraints. • Designed and analyzed a survey of published novelists to examine the creative processes involved in writing a novel, and to examine issues related to creative ownership and copyrights. • Led a team conducting a national market research project on romance novel readership. The research consisted of over 1,200 random household surveys, and provided accurate statistics on the demographics of romance readers, perceptions of romance novels, reading and purchasing patterns, and readersopinions on favorite authors, novels, protagonist traits, and settings. Focus groups were also conducted to examine qualitative issues. • Conducted a field market research project to assess the comparability of food and beverage prices at Denver International Airport to prices elsewhere in the Denver marketplace. The project involves identifying key characteristics of selected retail outlets at DIA, locating comparable retail outlets throughout the Denver Metropolitan Area, and comparing the prices of comparable food products. The study encompasses newsstands, restaurants, bars, and snack shops. • Assisted Denver Public Schools with the analysis of surveys of over 100,000 parents, teachers, students, and principals at over 110 schools throughout the city. • Quantified public awareness and perceptions of a local real estate company, via a survey of households in the local area. Tested the results of a large marketing campaign by conducting a follow-on survey six months later. • Led the development of a Consumer Guide to Employment and Training Programs for the Office of the Governor — Workforce Coordinating Council. Conducted market research, including surveys of key individuals and focus groups of job seekers and employers, to determine information used by students to select programs. After defining the content and layout of the guide, led a comprehensive effort to identify and collect pertinent information on over 2,000 public sector, non-profit, and private sector career training organizations located in Colorado. Field Research (coned) Conducted an assessment of the real estate market in Eagle County, Colorado, focusing on the market for homes in the $1 million range and higher. The assessment was conducted via interviewers with local experts and analysis of existing sales data, and was used by a developer to consider a large investment in upscale home development outside the Vail area • Served as an on -call market research consultant for an 8,000-member writer's organization, with responsibility for reviewing regular members' surveys prior to distribution. • Led a major longitudinal observational survey to gather information on seat belt usage rates among various demographic groups and genders. This project has extended four years to date, and is used to examine the short -berm and long-term impacts of a major marketing campaign, as well as the impact of time gaps in that campaign's implementation. • Conducted a survey of law enforcement officials, non-profit agencies, private organizations, and other relevant groups throughout Colorado to gather opinions about emerging transportation safety problems. • For Pennington County, South Dakota, assessed the effect of building and employment patterns on affordable housing in the area Participated in focus groups, conducted personal interviews of landlords and housing services providers and conducted an analysis of a mail survey regarding housing needs. • Designed a survey of owner satisfaction in the Powderhom resort development near Grand Junction, Colorado. Surveys were mailed to approximately 1,000 property owners. Demographic Models and • Managed a geographic analysis of taxicab usage that plotted actual routes and Projections measured taxicab mileage coveted by city as well as destinations by neighborhood and city. • Developed a Juvenile Crime Reduction Plan for Sweetwater County, Wyoming. The project included developing forecasts and analyses of juvenile crime rates in the county, interviewing a large number of local key juvenile crime service providers, and developing short-term and long-term priorities for action. • Conducted a media impact analysis for the Colorado Department of Transportation. The study includes on -site field research in four Colorado cities and towns, focus groups in other communities to test television and radio messages, and extensive data analysis of media coverage of traffic safety -related issues. • Performed a demographic market segmentation and needs analysis of the poor population in Sweetwater County, Wyoming. The study included identifying the primary "market segments" of poverty, such as retirees, disabled persons, the `working poor" and several other segments, then quantifying the proportion of the impoverished population that fit within each segment • Led the analysis of public investment into various market segments of the low- income population for a mral Wyoming county. This information allowed the county to identify market segments that might currently be undersetved, and thus a priority for new investment of resources. KffvinRAnes(qaA� Demographic Models and Developed a demographic model to assess the need for school -based out -of school Projections (cont'd) programs in over 70 Denver neighborhoods. The model accounted for the prevalence in each neighborhood of children with the potential to have unsupervised time after school, the supply of existing programs relative to the student population, and over 20 risk factors for unsupervised children, ranging from teen pregnancy rates and school suspension rates to lack of transportation options and poverty levels. • Developed demographic and economic data on African American populations in every one of the U.S.'s 3,400+ counties in support of a major federal policy research project Designed and implemented an optimization model to examine those counties' economic, demographic, and social structures to select the best combination of six locales for specific field research. The six locales were selected using an objective, automated algorithm that identified the combination of counties that best represented the range of living environments for the Black population. • Identified industry sectors and types of firms that define a cross-section of high road use and driving. These profiles were used by a public relations firm to conduct interviews about road maintenance issues and priorities. • Developed demographic and economic profiles of five counties in New Mexico as part of an analysis to determine the optimum location for a potential wind power plant The analysis was intended to optimize the impact of the new plant on local economic conditions. • Developed estimates of the number of households in Pueblo County that would like to own homes, but are unable to do so because of financial reasons. • Conducted a statewide survey of housing conditions in West Virginia, focusing on availability of housing and housing affordability. Developed forecasts of housing demand based on a variety of demographic factors. • Prepared forecasts of housing demand by age, income, and selected household type and demographic group for the City of Pueblo, Colorado. • Examined the demographics of the Navajo Nation in northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico, concentrating on growth in the elderly population. The data were used to assess the market potential of a proposed subacute care facility in Farmington, New Mexico. • Provided forecasts of housing demand, and provided an overview of local demographic and economic characteristics, for the City of Yuma, Arizona, to support that City's preparation of a Consolidated Plan for Housing and Community Development. Assignments also included preparation of an overview of the local housing stock and an analysis of locational factors that could affect the development of affordable housing in the city. • Compared living costs and wage levels for Eagle and Summit Counties in Colorado, to assist a private firm in determining relative wages to be paid to employees in those two counties. • Provided database management and analysis support for a 250,000 record database of attenders of various arts institutions in the Denver area. These data were used to conduct market research on visnorship to various institutions and to develop cross - marketing plants between various institutions. KeviiRAnes (am4 Demographic Models and Conducted market research to assist a public hospital in the design of a medical care Projections (coned) facility for jail and prison inmates. Conducted interviews with several local jails and the Colorado Department of Corrections to assess the potential demand for the facility, and constructed a demand model to estimate the required bed space in the facility to satisfy demand. • Developed traffic forecasts for the towns of Central City and Blackhawk, Colorado, where the introduction of limited -stakes gambling produced significant and rapid growth. Traffic composition and volume were estimated through development of a computer model defining the relationships between various types of traffic and growth in the gaming industry. • Conducted on-line research to develop a profile of the Town of Port Orford, Oregon, which was used to determine development options for property owned by a private investor. • Developed a Housing Affordability Index (HAI) for new home ownership in several Colorado cities. The HAI was developed for each city for the years 1990 and 1995. A computer model was delivered to the client that allowed the client to perform sensitivity analyses on the effects of construction costs, land costs, various government fees, interest rates, and down payments on overall housing affordability. • Prepared estimates of the average expenditures in 15 major consumer areas by a "typical" three -person family with a $36,000 annual household income living in the Western United States. Findings were used to prepare cost of living indices for every Colorado school district in order to determine teacher wage scales. • For the State of Indiana, developed detailed demographic descriptions of various regions of the state for use in a statewide Comprehensive Housing Affordability Study. Analyzed building and employment patterns and their effect on housing for seventeen individual regions within the state. • Conducted on-line research to identify the locations and capacities of over 120 ski destinations in Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut and New York. • Prepared a demographic profile of a residential area in south Denver to assist in determining the highest and best use for a vacant fiveacreparcel adjacent to the residential area. • Prepared cost of living data for several dozen metropolitan areas for use by a labor union in determining comparable wage rates in different geographic areas. • Developed a fiscal and demographic profile of ski resort communities for the Colorado Association of Ski Towns. Concentrated analysis efforts on tax revenues generated by resort communities and on state expenditures within resort communities. • Prepared short, medium and long-term projections of customer counts for the United Power Rural Electric Association. Short-term projections were developed for each square mile of the orgamzation's 900 square -mile service area. • Examined construction market trends for over 100 major metropolitan areas to assist a construction firm in evaluating locations for potential expansion. (oai4 Demographic Models and • Developed a demographic model of housing supply and demand for the State of Projections (coned) South Carolina The model considered demographic changes, immigration, natural growth, aging homeowners, income changes with age, ownership preferences, housing construction and substandard housing conditions to develop vacancy rate projections for owner and rental households. Policy Research • Interviewed several dozen key experts and practitioners in the area of forestry in the state of New Mexico, to gather and synthesize input for a new multi -jurisdictional statewide forest health plan. • Developed a Juvenile Crime Reduction Plan for a Wyoming county, including recommendations on priority actions. The Plan was based on a quantitative and qualitative analysis of juvenile crime and juvenile system resources in the county. • Prepared a report to Congress on Colorado's activities to promote seat belt use during a nationwide enforcement and media wave. • Designed a research plan to evaluate an employer based traffic safety program, and conducted interviews with key individuals as part of the evaluation. • Conducted an evaluation of a governmental program to induce employers to educate their employers regarding safety issues. • Retained by a state agency to prepare a quarterly and annual report of activities to a federal fonder for a large grant The work included working with public relations agencies, agency staff, and other consultants to identify, organize, and document activities, including coordinated activities on two other federal grants. • Monitored and tracked over 20 data elements related to enforcement of seat belt laws, including tickets written, officer hours, and other key evaluation elements. • Led the evaluation of a major initiative to improve seat belt use rates among drivers of Sport Utility Vehicles. This project included public opinion surveys among SUV drivers, focus groups of various market segments of SUV drivers, demographic analyses, and observational surveys. • Conducted a needs assessment and process evaluation of the Colorado Department of Transportation's child passenger safety program. The project included demographic studies and a resource inventory to identify geographic gaps in program coverage, and a survey of participants' awareness and satisfaction with various program elements. • Conducted an evaluation of the effectiveness of enforcement efforts as a tool to promote traffic safety. Conducted an extensive data analysis of several hundred local observational surveys, and determined patterns of seat belt use in relation to enforcement efforts. This project was renewed for two years to add additional analyses and data • Analyzed the relationship between media coverage and seat belt use. Examined and categorized the headlines and content of over 900 newspaper articles in 135 newspapers to assess whether the volume and theme of local coverage affected seat belt use. Examined and documented local television news coverage of seat belt - related issues over a four-year time period (id) Policy Research (coned) Identified ten demographic groups in Colorado that are overrepresented in certain types of automobile crashes, and conducted targeted market research to identify means of changing unsafe driving behaviors exhibited by those groups Designed and managed a highly targeted telephone survey of 1,451 drivers throughout the state, a series of personal interviews, and 22 focus groups. The research targeted demographic groups at high risk of alcohol -related crashes, crashes involving young drivers, and fatalities due to non-use of seat belts, and was used by the Colorado Department of Transportation to design targeted intervention programs. • Assisted Denver Public Schools with program evaluations of two charter schools. Charter schools are publicly funded schools, usually located in areas known for low academic achievement, which are allowed to bypass normal district hiring practices, compensation systems, school day and year definitions, and curriculum requirements • Led an evaluation of outcome measures for the Office of the Governor for five types of vocational training programs: Job Training Partnership Act programs, Adult Basic Education, Cad Perkins grant programs, Vocational Rehabilitation, and the Colorado FIRST customized training program. • Examined and critiqued research studies conducted by fourteen large metropolitan areas on the community impacts of adult entertainment establishments, and assessed their relevance to local ordinances affecting an establishment operating in Aspen, Colorado. Submitted to U.S. Federal District Court for Colorado as an expert witness on the relevance of these studies to Aspen. • Developed a synopsis of the competitive environment in the Nevada healthcare industry. Compiled data on hospital market shares and types and trends of various health plan providers such as HMOs and PPOs. Completed a comprehensive periodical review to develop a three-year history of significant events in the Nevada healthcare market, including mergers and acquisitions, legislation, consideration of a State Medicaid managed care program and other important events. • Assisted the government of Latimer County, Colorado, in the development of a system through which to assess housing supply and demand in support of an affordable housing strategy. Elements of the project include the interviewing of key personnel, the identification of information sources and needs, the design of a data collection system for the county, the completion of a current housing needs assessment, and an advisory role in the development of an affordable housing strategy. • Performed quantitative analyses of minority- and women -owned businesses for Pima County, Arizona, the City of Fort Worth, the Fort Worth Transportation Authority, and the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport Conducted geographic market analyses, examined utilization of firms on public contracts, and examined the availability of firms to compete for public contracts • Conducted studies of minority- and women -owned business issues for the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico, the City of Tucson, Arizona, and the New Mexico State Highway & Transportation Department Researched procurement procedures and affirmative action efforts, examined the availability of firms to conduct publicsector contracts, and examined their success in capturing those contracts. Performed industry analyses of various sectors of the local economy for the City of Albuquerque and for the statewide highway construction and design markets for the New Mexico State Highway & Transportation Department, which included extensive interviewing of local and statewide firms. (id) Policy Research (coned) • Participated in the development of recommendations for a long-term economic development strategic plan for the State of Colorado. Collected data on economic development issues, and local development advantages and constraints for several regional economies within Colorado. Catalogued state economic development programs of interest to those regions. Conducted a policy analysis of the effectiveness of state -funded customized training programs being offered to private industry. Miscellaneous Research • Provided consultation services and presentation services to a project team pursuing a large federal program implementation contract • Assembled a business plan for a new private high school in Denver. • Provided a market feasibility assessment of a proposed 72-unit low-income housing development in the City of Yuma, Arizona. • Determined the potential sales tax revenues to be generated by a large new hotel in downtown Denver. The findings were used to assess the potential for the project to be publicly funded by tax increment financing. • Determined the future income potential of a husband and wife for a divorce settlement Calculations were based on local market wages, each person's education and specialized training, and their tenures with their current employers. • Advised a business owner on specific market research techniques that he could use to develop a marketing plan for a related firm. • Assisted a private homeowner in securing income tax credits for historic rehabilitation of their home. The project included documenting key historical features of the home, itemizing costs for refurbishment and restoration, and acting as a liaison between tax officials and the homeowner. • Analyzed expansion plans of a ski resort near Jackson, Wyoming, and estimated the impact of the development on local sales tax revenues, property tax revenues, and local government fees and budget impacts. • Determined the net impact of a large hotel -casino development on General Fund revenues for the City of Black Hawk, Colorado. The analysis identified future fund flows by source, and was used by the City to determine potential funding sources to provide development incentives. • Currently serving as the official statistician of the Metropolitan Wolverines, a semi- pro football team that plays games in Colorado, Kansas, Utah, and New Mexico. The statistics are reported to the league's national offices on the east coast and are used to select national all-star teams for the 100+ team league. • Responsible for developing and maintaining data and graphics to illustrate the extent of specific law enforcement activities in over 60 communities throughout the state of Colorado. The data are used for press releases and other public information materials. • Determined the net increase in social services costs to the City of Aurora if the City created its own county government Knin Rim (oai4 Miscellaneous Research • Assessed the market potential of a proposed new bank branch in Bozeman, (coned) Montana, which included five-year projections of deposits and loans. • Conducted research on the I arge Screen Display industry to assess the size of the industry, the major competitors, price issues, and growth trends. The research was used to develop revenue forecasts for a startup company that plans to introduce a competing technology to the marketplace. • Provided custom maps for a large real estate firm to pinpoint the locations of specific properties with respect to highways, airports, and other geographic features. • Developed an optimization algorithm to pair companies and entrepreneurs at a networking conference in the most efficient and effective manner. • Evaluated and critiqued another consultant's analysis of the impact on housing of the construction of a new prison in the town of Sterling, Colorado, at the request of the Colorado Department of Corrections. • Determined the net change in costs for law enforcement, general governmental administration and support functions, clerk and recorder, county attorney, treasures, assessor, and road and bridge functions for the City of Broomfield if the City were to become a consolidated City/County government • Conducted analyses in support of expert testimony in U.S. District Court for Colorado pertaining to the constitutionality of City and County of Denver minority and women's business programs. Tasks included interviewing selected cities across the United States regarding the scope of their minority and womens business programs, and critiquing studies to determine their usefulness as evidence in the Cit}%s defense of its program. • Conducted economic analysis in support of expert testimony in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Ohio pertaining to the constitutionality of City of Columbus minority business programs. • Conducted a market analysis of reuse options for a 45,000 square -foot building in Decorah, Iowa. Options considered included a hotel/conference center with inclusive support businesses such as restaurants and bars, or redevelopment as condominiums or apartments. Developed a first year financial forecast including room occupancy rates, operating expenses and construction and rehab costs. • Conducted preliminary site research for a new bank location in Scottsdale, Arizona. Research included interviewing local planners about business and population growth patterns in the north part of the city. Recognition Board Member, Rocky Mountain Research and Prevention Institute, 2003-present and COMMUllity President of 17th Largest Management Consulting Firm in Colorado, Denver Bueiness Journa12003 (2000-2002 period) Involvement President of 3w Fastest Growing Small Private Firm in Colorado, Denver Business Jow w12002 (1999-2001 period) President of 171h Fastest Growing Small Private Firm in Colorado, Denver Businea Journa12003 (2000-2002 period) President of 17th Fastest Growing Small Private Firm in Colorado, Denver BAdnerr Journa12004 (2001-2003 period) 2002 Award of Excellence, Small Business Administration 2002 Top Three Finalists, Community Service Award for Family Businesses, Denver Bxdness Jourxa12002 Special Award from Parker Fire Protection District for Contributions to Safe Driving in Douglas County, Colorado 2002 Passed Ethics Coursework for Human Subject Testing, administered by the Colorado Multiple Independent Review Board Member, Colorado State Child Fatality Review Committee (Motor Vehicle Subcommittee) 2002-2003 Leo Lewis Work History 2002 — Present Corona Research, Inc. Denver, CO Research Analyst 1997 — 2002 Federal Express Denver, CO Ground Operations Associate 1998 — 2000 Natural Health Alternatives, Inc. Denver, CO Owner, Author, Researcher 1996 —1997 Citibank, N.A. New York, NY Management Associate Summer 1995 Self Employed Austin, TX Marketing Consultant to 3M 1992 — 1994 Safeco Insurance Company Lakewood, CO Policy Services Coordinator Education 1996 University of Texas at Austin Austin, TX MBA 1989 Texas Tech University Lubbock, TX BBA- Finance Examples of Relevant Project Experience Research and Analysis • Conducted field research and developed data analysis formats to examine the placement and promotion of books in bookstores • Researched and analyzed television, radio, and newspaper media coverage generated by a high visibility seat belt use campaign in Colorado and reported findings in a final written report • Analyzed multiple focus groups regarding seat belt use and messages to improve seat belt use. • Conducted key person interviews for an evaluation of an employer -based traffic safety program. • Authored a book on common chronic health condition that discusses background, causes, and treatment options. A second book on another condition is in process. • Performed extensive research on multiple common chronic health conditions with emphasis on non-invasive, natural healing methods. ECONOMIC AND MARKET STUDY TECHNICAL AND COST PROPOSAL Corona Research is pleased to present this proposal to the City of Fort Collins to conduct an economic and market study of potential solutions to problem properties in the city. As requested in the RFP, we provide information in this proposal about our proposed work scope, our qualifications, and the cost to complete the project For the selection committee's convenience, we address each of the questions on the "professional questionnaire" on page 22 of this proposal. In reading the RFP, we understand that an issue of interest in the city has been "problem properties" in city neighborhoods, specifically rental properties in single-family neighborhoods that hold more than three unrelated adults. The City has considered several policy options to address these problem properties, and wishes to examine the impacts of those options on housing affordability and housing markets. This needs to be accomplished in a quantitative manner, and the analysis will be used to help the City make an informed decision while minimizing the risk of unexpected consequences. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 1 CORONA RESEARCH I i• .�i./\ /�.� 'J Research and Analysis • Moderated multiple focus groups in major metropolitan County on resident needs (Cont'd) for various public and social services. • Currently conducting successful, ongoing grant writing for a small, private K-5 school that serves low-income youth (primarily Latino) with a unique educational model. • Designed and coordinated large county wide survey of social service and human services providers. • Managed a program evaluation project for a local after -school activities provider to ensure proper reporting to the State of Colorado for continued grant assistance. • Wrote successful capital asset grant proposal to the City of Denver to assist a small, private K-5 school in securing funding for capital and plant asset improvements. • Designed research and conducted focus groups with residents and non-residents to gather their opinions on a major municipality in the Denver metro area to assist city with communications planning. • Managed four focus groups with Spanish-speaking Il-ispamcs regarding their attitudes and opinions toward the new vehicle purchase process to assist local dealers and a major auto manufacturer to better market and service this demographic segment • Managed four focus groups with Spanish-speaking and Bilingual Hispanics regarding their attitudes on traffic safety issues and preferred communication messages for traffic safety topics. • Managed three focus groups with Spanish-speaking and Bilingual Hispanics regarding their library usage patterns and preferences for library services. • Designed survey to assess public opinion on new homebuilder brand and brand attributes. • Currently participating in collaborative survey design to assess Colorado residents' public opinion and perceptions on mountain lions. • Designed program evaluation and measurement tools for local nonprofit providing education and instruction on self -management practices related to coping with a chronic health condition. Committee & • City of Aurora — Communications Council. I Aad Reremziber. Community • Intergerteraaonal Learning Center (21u Century Community Learning Centex Involvement grantee), Adams County School District 14. Rmanh CmnuAwl • Metro Denver Black Church Initiative — Focus on Diabetes Advisory Committee. Rerearrh and Pmgrmn Euah"69n Coxrxdaxt Astrid Saviti i Work History 2002 — Present 2002 2000-2001 1995-1997 1994-1995 Education 2001 1994 Examples of Relevant Project Corona Research, Inc. Denver, CO Research Analyst University of Colorado Boulder, CO Professional Research Assistant, Institution of Behavioral Science University of Colorado Denver, CO Teaching Assistant Synergy Associates Jakarta, Indonesia Junior Consultant (Feasibility Study Analyst) AC Nielsen Jakarta, Indonesia Assistant Manager, Retail Market Research University of Colorado -Denver Denver, CO MA Economics Bandung Institute of Technology Bandung, Indonesia Bachelor of Science, Industrial Engineering Quantitative Research and • Currently conducting an analysis of the Colorado Energy Assistance Foundation Analysis (CEAF) data to measure the progress of program outcomes for the Cash Assistance and Weathearrtion Programs. • Designed a survey instrument for Sport Utility Vehicle (SUV) drivers in Denver area to study fictots affecting decision to buy/lease an SUV and the attitudes of SUV drivers versus drivers of other vehicle, and currently analyzing the survey responses and preparing wnttm report of findings. • Developed demographic weighting system to propedy analyze behavior of Minnesotans toward seat belt usage, public awareness regarding the seat belt enforcement campaigq and most of all, to evaluate the effectiveness of the campaign. Also prepared written report with key findings. • Analyzed data of drinking and driving social norms survey and prepared written reportwith key findings to the client • Designed a preliminary survey instrument to measure public awareness of Presbyterian/St Lukes Medial Center in the Denver area, analyzed the survey responses and prepared written report of findings. F W11.1 ! I11 repe.11 1) Quantitative Research Analyzed and geographically mapped data of routes taken by users of a Sober Ride and Analysis (continued) (a professional transportation service for drinking and driving prevention) to identify several important issues, including the average driving distance that may have been taken by drunk drivers, and the mileage taken by Sober Ride users by city arm • Designed a survey instrument to measure the awareness of seat belt use in Pueblo and scientifically selected intersections at which to conduct seat belt observations. Designed, gathered and analyzed demographic statistics to define and profile neighborhoods in Pueblo to be used to develop demographic weighting systems to properly calculate seat belt use rates. • Designed a focus group moderator guide for the T-REX highway construction project to determine a name and logo of the HOV lane to be created during the T- REX project and to gather public opinion on the Transoptions advertisement • Analyzed data from an intercept survey to identify best practice organizations that were congruent with Human Services Inc.'s revised strategic direction and prepared written report of findings. • Analyzed the Romance Writers of America (RWA) member survey to identify essential feedback on key issues affecting RWA and its members, and prepared written report with key findings. • Developed demographic weighting system to properly observe and analyze demographic profiles and reading habits of romance readers in America, and to identify a subregion of the Chicago metropolitan area for use in efficiently recanting focus group participants that were representative of the entire area. Also prepared written report with key findings. • Gathered and analyzed demographic statistics of low income youth to identify the unmet needs and service gaps/overlaps of out -of -school -time programs in Commerce City, Santa Fe Corridor, and Lakewood area • Developed demographic weighting systems to properly calculate seat belt use rates for sport utility vehicles and other vehicles, based on observations at scientifically selected intersections in Denver, Trinidad, and Yuma. • Developed demographic weighting systems to properly calculate seat belt use rates, based on observations at scientifically selected intersections in Pueblo. Also analyzed an accompanying telephone survey of attitudes toward seat belt use and belt usage patterns. • Gathered and analyzed demographic statistics to define and profile neighborhoods in Greeley. Used this information to develop demographic weighting systems to properly calculate seat belt use rates, based on observations at scientifically selected intersections in Greeley. Also participated in on -site data collection of seat belt use data. • Prepared an analysis of poverty rates in Sweetwater County, Wyoming, and compared poverty rates in that county to other similarly sized counties throughout the region and the United States. • Analyzed migration patterns in and out of Sweetwater County. Identified the top ten origins and destinations of in -migrants and out -migrants, and examined the income levels of those entering or leaving the county. • Analyzed migration and circulation patterns in Indonesia (especially in West Java and South Sulawesi) before and after the governmental crisis. Kadityti E PursleY Wort{ History 2004 To Present Corona Research, Inc. Denver, CO Research Analyst 2004 JVA Consulting, Inc. Denver, CO Associate/Intern 2003-2004 Project WISE Denver, CO Graduate Student Intern 2002-2003 The Bridge Project Denver, CO Graduate Student Intern ■ 2004 University of Denver Denver, CO Education Master of Social Work ■ 2000 Santa Clara University Santa Clara, CA Bachelor of Science, Sociology Examples of Relevant Experience Research a Best Practices. Interviewed local and national organizations, conducted Best Practices Internet searches and reviewed academic literature to help identify innovative Pram Equation ideas and models of adult mentoring programs. Funding Resources ■ Program Evaluation. Performed interviews and analyzed quantitative and qualitative data that transpired from each interview to evaluate a nonprofit mentoring program. Presented findings to organization and a larger graduate school audience. ■ Funding Resources. Conducted Internet, database research and contacted potential fonder to increase funding opportunities for a nonprofit agency. Investigated local, state and national funding streams to identify promising unused capital. Group Facilitation ■ Focus Groups. Facilitated focus groups for low-income women to determine Focus Groups issues and needs that community organizations can help address. The focus Community meetings groups often mirrored "support groups" to help women focus on internal and external needs to achieve self-sufficiency. ■ Community Meetings. Designed and conducted meetings for low-income families to develop skills to become more involved in their communities. Furthermore, low-income individuals were trained in advocacy and overall leadership development. KAi�nEPusky (oo&d) Strategic Planning and Strategic Planning. Assisting agency with restructuring and strategic planning. Facilitation Conducting key person interviews as part of a self -assessment process. Synthesizing and documenting findings for use in planning process. Facilitation. Designing customized retreat for local workforce investment board. Met with client to design agenda and exercises that will build buy -in and action. In considering the approach to this RFP, we see three major "task groups" to this study, as described below. While these "task groups" differ somewhat from the order of the questions in the RFP, they address all of those questions, and represent the approach that needs to be taken in the analysis itself. Task Group Research Questions Cited in RFP Documentation and How many tenants are currently in violation of this ordinance and Measurement of Current thus would be required to find alternative housing? Situation Does the ratio of owner -occupied single family homes to renter - occupied single family homes in a neighborhood have an impact on property values? If so, what is the impact? Provide examples specific to Fort Collins. Impact Assessment of What will be the impact on tenants of a strict enforcement of the "no Ordinance Enforcement on more than 3-unrelated" ordinance? Current Situation Would vacancies accommodate these displaced tenants currently? Will there be a change in the average cost to rent housing? Will the number of single-family rental homes increase or decline? (Or, will the number of owner -occupied homes increase or decline?) If the answer to "a" (above) is yes, where will these changes most likely occur? What will be the impact on single family neighborhoods of a strict enforcement of the "no more than 3-unrelated" ordinance? How will property values be affected currently? Scenario Analysis of Future Would vacancies accommodate these displaced tenants five years Rental Environment from now? Ten years from now? How will property values be affected five years from now? Ten years from now? How will the Fort Collins housing market be affected by the Colorado State University strategy to increase enrollment by 5,000 students in the next 5 —10 years, including proportional increases in faculty and staff? ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 2 CORONA RESEARCH Proposed approaches for each of the four task groups are described below. Each of these task groups may be examined independently. TASK GROUP 1. DOCUMENTATION AND MEASUREMENT OF CURRENT SITUATION This task group answers the questions: How many tenants are currently in violation of this ordinance and thus would be required to find alternative housing?" Does the ratio of owner -occupied single family homes to renter -occupied single family homes in a neighborhood have an impact on property values? If so, what is the impact? Provide examples specific to Fort Collins ESTIMATE OF NUMBERS OF VIOLATORS This task group will be approached in two parts. First, we must develop estimates of the number of tenants currently in violation of the ordinance. The key issue in answering this question is that the residents in violation of the ordinance may now be wary of identifying themselves as such in light of public consideration of overcrowding. There are several potential ways to prepare estimates of these figures. Each is discussed below, along with strengths and weaknesses. Method Strengths Weaknesses Conduct a Will provide current Violators will likely be unwilling to divulge public survey. information. information about household size. The survey sample would have to be extremely large to gather sufficient data to develop figures. The only reliable way to gather information will be to ask respondents about neighbors' households, which could cause negative public sentiment. Examine and Up to date, identifies Will likely underestimate the extent of the problem map complaints "problem properties" in the since many overcrowding situations will not be to the City. most pure sense. formally reported. Examine and Data on household sizes Data transfer and (potentially) privacy issues would infer data from might be inferred based on be a challenge. There is a strong chance of water usage water usage, which would misidentifying specific households due to natural records. allow estimating to be done variations in water usage, and the presence of large on an address by address family households. basis. Examine Census PUMS data will A data model will be needed to allocated existing data provide strong data about overcrowding to specific neighborhoods. records. the number and nature of Adjustments may have to be made for undercounts overcrowded housing. of some populations. Data will need to be updated from the Year 2000. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 3 CORONA RESEARCH Each of the above approaches has specific strengths and weaknesses, and none is guaranteed to have a high range of accuracy. The best approach, then, is to triangulate using a combination of methods. Examples of potential methods are discussed below. Method 1. Conduct a public survey. Corona will conduct a survey of the public to gather their opinions and knowledge about problem properties in their own neighborhoods. We will conduct a survey of 400 households, and during the course of those surveys we will ask their opinions about the six closest housing units to their own housing unit In this way, we can gather information about 2,400 housing units in the city, albeit most via secondhand knowledge. This approach has the best option of gathering accurate data, because respondents may have some incentive to report problems in their neighborhood It will need to be approached with sensitivity to avoid any allegations of the City pitting neighbor against neighbor. An advantage of this approach is that Corona can gather perceptions of other housing -related issues as well, if the City so wishes. Corona has strong experience conducting public surveys via statistically valid methods. We will use a Random Digit Dial method to obtain the strongest statistical sample possible, and we will statistically weight the data to offset non -response bias. These methods are not used by many of our competitors, and Corona's methods produce the most accurate results, which is particularly important in a survey of this nature. Method 2. Map complaints to the City about ordinance violations. Corona will obtain any electronic files that list problem properties, as documented via public complaints or via code enforcement investigations of ordinance violations. (Note: for this analysis, we will consider only addresses where the "Three Unrelated People" ordinance is violated, as opposed to other types of code violations.) We will rely on the City to provide address records in an electronic format Corona can compile and enter paper records, but at an additional cost and schedule approach. Corona will map all addresses and assign them to Census Block Groups for further analysis. Method 3. Infer ordinance violation incidence rates by neighborhood via water usage records. Corona is currently working with another Colorado city to examine options for water billing systems, and we have been impressed with the data that are available through water departments. Those types of data may be useful in an analysis such as this. Having said that, though, it is likely that these data will be difficult and costly to gather and interpret, with additional difficulties in identifying ordinance violators versus other large residential water users such as large families. We will work with the City to explore the efficacy and availability of these data, but our initial assumption is that these data will not be available for the study. If so, we can discuss budget adjustments with the City to gather and analyze these data. Method 4. Conduct observational research/'windshield survey'. There are some clues that might indicate the presence of ordinance violations, such as the presence of multiple vehicles in one household Unfortunately, this type of observational research would be highly inexact for this ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 4 CORONA RESEARCH l _l v_L9 NMafY goy -A - ad M Marren Lk 1FOk1 0,07 .��Rtigfid. — � _FiC(�fppFN-6 t Pe In LdttR+er f J - lfriflglmD/ � � 1 C.:i L. a.09 3. We will gather additional data from the 2000 Census at the block group and/or Census Tract level. While data on these specific households is not available, other data that may indicate propensities for these overcrowded households is available and will be useful. 4. Corona will gather information about population growth trends among key populations, and will apply those growth trends to the 2000 data to estimate current populations and levels of overcrowding. Using Methods 1, 2, and 5 (excluding water usage analysis at the moment and observational research), Corona can develop differing sets of estimates, and can then triangulate on those estimates to develop an overall figure for ordinance violations. R"ACT ON PROPERTY VALUES OF SINGLE-FAMILY RENTAL HOMES IN NEIGHBORHOODS While this is a complex issue to examine, it is nonetheless relatively straightforward since existing Census data can be used to examine this question. Corona will develop a general descriptive model to answer this question, by examining patterns between home values for a variety of geographic areas versus the relative proportions of single-family owned homes versus rentals. We will control for selected other value indicators such as the age of the housing and the average size, though this represents an inherent and unavoidable challenge to the study — some variables such as age of housing will correlate highly with the presence of single-family rentals (i.e., these rentals are inherently more common in older neighborhoods). This correlation can obscure the relationship between property values and the presence of single-family rentals. Corona will attempt to separate out these effects by controlling for housing stock age, but it will likely not be possible to completely eliminate this crossover effect Once the general model and relationships are developed, we will then superimpose various Fort Collins neighborhoods onto the analysis at a Block Group level to determine if similar patterns exist in Fort Collins. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE 6 CORONA RESEARCH market. Corona staff have developed housing rental and ownership demand models in the past for numerous geographic regions, as will be discussed in the Qualifications section of our proposal. Corona's demand model will examine two demand from both a raw supply/inventory/vacancy perspective and from a price perspective. In terms of inventory and vacancies, the model will be able to draw demand curves for single-family homes versus multi -family homes if a number of displaced tenants suddenly appear on the market. The output of our analysis will examine whether demand will drop for single-family rental homes based on the price distribution of those rentals versus those of multi -family units. The model will also include estimates of price impacts as well as vacancy impacts. In order to develop price impact estimates, Corona will examine the supply/demand levels of housing rentals at the current time as a function of income. In other words, we will develop estimates of the number of rental units available at a specific price level versus the number of households that can be expected to demand rental housing at that level. This will be accomplished via a combination of analysis of detailed 2000 Census data, with updates based on the findings of the public survey in Task Group 1 and other model inputs such as the review of the Division of Housing rental surveys. Our model will utilize the following assumptions: 1. Households will seek housing within a specified percentage of their income. One of the challenges of developing housing demand models is that all households can conceivably be customers for the lowest -priced housing options, because they can afford it and conceivably would prefer lower -priced housing over higher -priced housing. 2. Demand for housing will be based on an upper assumption of 50 percent of gross income. The demand curve for individual households will be truncated at that point. By combining the neighborhood analyses in Part 1 with the impact model developed jointly in Parts 1 and 2, Corona will be able to prepare estimates of neighborhoods where impacts will be most strongly felt if the ordinance is enforced Examination of Problem Property Impact and Ordinance Enforcement on Neighborhood Home Values. An independent aspect of this Task Group is the analysis of impacts of "problem properties" on the values of other properties. An analysis of property values can be conducted by examining recent home sales near "problem properties." This will be accomplished by examining the sale prices of homes located near reported "problem properties" as well as by conducting interviews with Realtors who have sold homes in neighborhoods near problem properties. While property values will vary according to a number of factors that cannot be reasonably predicted, it is possible to develop estimates of the impact of problem properties on specific nearby home sales, which can then be expanded out analytically to develop a citywide estimate of impacts. Note that this will be a separate analysis from the Impact Model since it relates to general impacts on property values as opposed to a specific impact from enforcement of the ordinance. ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS PAGE S CORONA RESEARCH