HomeMy WebLinkAboutCHANGE ORDER - GENERAL CORRESPONDENCE - TRAVEL DEMAND MODELING TECHNICAL SUPPORTCHANGE ORDER NO. 2
PROJECT TITLE:
Travel Demand Modeling Technical Support
CONTRACTOR:
LSA Associates, Inc.
PROJECT NUMBER:
995-99503002.529290.0
PURCHASE ORDER M 2207018
DESCRIPTION: Expansion of contract hours & New mode choice switch
1. Reason for Change: See attached letter of explanation
2. Description of Change: Adding more time by various personnel
3. Change in Contract Cost: $19,925.00
4. Change in Contract Time: None
ORIGINAL CONTRACT COST: $ 29,980.00
TOTAL APPROVED CHANGE ORDERS: $
TOTAL PENDING CHANGE ORDERS:
none
TOTAL THIS CHANGE ORDER:
$ 19,925.00
TOTAL % OF ORIGINAL CONTRACT, THIS C.O.:
66.46%
TOTAL % OF ORIGINAL CONTRACT, ALL C.O.'S.:
66.46%
ADJUSTED CONTRACT COST
$ 49,905.00
(Assuming all change orders approved)
ACCEPTED BY: C! ✓!l
DATE:
�I —�0-03
Contractor's Representative
ACCEPTED BY: �/L�L
DATE:
15ro anager
REVIEWED BY:
DATE:
Name / Title
APPROVED BY:
DATE:
Name / Title
APPROVED BY:
DATE:
Purchasing Agent over $30,000
cc: Purchasing
u:lforms\Change Order 4/10/2003
Subtask 1.8 — Documentation
As stated previously, LSA will maintain written records of tasks, topics, and issues throughout the
duration of the project to maximize project management efficiency and effectiveness. These
standardized written records will become the basis for the final model documentation. LSA will
organize and compile the information from the written records and prepare a basic travel demand
model report that summarizes inputs, processes, and results. It is anticipated that LSA will be
primarily responsibility for the model's documentation, but that MPO staff will assist with the written
report and final document preparation.
Subtask 1.8.1 —Additional Model Documentation
The original scope of work calls for LSA to prepare the final model documentation report
based on ongoing written records of tasks maintained by the MPO and LSA staff. However,
the amount of work being conducted by MPO staff in other areas of this project have limited
their resources available to assist with the documentation efforts. In addition, the number of
changes associated with the model's update and enhancement prompted a desire for an
enhanced model documentation effort. For these reasons, LSA anticipates spending
additional resources on the model documentation.
Subtask 1,9 — Model Enhancements
Several model enhancements available selected by the peer reviewer for inclusion in the North Front
Range 2000 Base Year Model. This new task provides for their incorporation into the model's
structure and calibration of any necessary parameters.
Subtask 1.9.1 — Allocation Models
While the original scope of services recognized that several model enhancements would
likely be added to the MPO model, the level of effort associated with some of these modules
has increased. In the Home -based University attraction allocation model, the peer reviewers
suggested that the distance formula be recalculated based on geocoded data from the
University of Northern Colorado. It is envisioned that the MPO will request and geocode
student address data frorn UNC. LSA and MPO staff will work closely on developing a
distance -based formula for input into the model. LSA will adjust the model script to
accommodate separate formula's for CSU and UNC.
Subtask 2 9.2 — Household Size Model
The Fratar process is not included in the MPO model but should be according to the peer
reviewers. This model provides for the determination of base and future year household
sizes, which are not maintained on the socioeconomic dataset. As a result. this model will
need to be adapted and adjusted for application in the MPO model. The model needs to
have some sort of algorithm to predict future household incomes and sizes for trip generation.
Traditionally, the MPO has maintained the future household incomes in the socioeconomic
data, but not the household sizes. A Fratar process is proposed, which will require additional
script coding by LSA.
Task 1 Deliverables:
Updated and calibrated 2000 Base Year model with Performance Module
Written Records of tasks, topics, and issues
Model validation guidelines
Final Model Documentation report
Task 2 - Land Use and Travel Model Interaction
As stated in the Project Understanding section preceding this Description of Tasks, Services, and
Deliverables, LSA will provide consultant and scripting services to integrate the MPO's land use and
transportation models. Depending on the need for repeatability, the interface will be programmed in
either GISDK or Visual Basic so that output results from CommunityViz or other software can be
incorporated directly through a seamless process. LSA will prepare the utility program to extract and
format data from CommunityViz for automated input into TransCAD.
Task 2 Deliverables
• Seamless and customized interface (i.e., utility program) for the MPO's land use and
transportation models
Task 3 - TransCAD Scripting and Customization
As stated in the Project Understanding section, LSA will program the MPO's travel model into a
custom TransCAD script that utilizes dialog boxes for ease of use and is self-contained for ease of
installation. This will rely on the use of existing MPO script to the extent possible. Custom scripts will
be incorporated where necessary. TransCAD's GISDK scripting program is the primary mechanism
that will be used for automation of the model's processes. LSA will provide a written User's Guide to
facilitate installation and running of the model
Subtask 3.1 - Model integration
Currently. the City of Fort Collins and the NFRMPO maintain separate models. A fundamental
difference between these models is the absence of a mode choice procedure in the MPO model
The NFR MPO does not desire to maintain and utilize a mode choice model at this time, but may
desire to do so in the future. The City of Fort Collins requires a regionally consistent model that
utilizes a mode choice procedure for their Mason Street Corridor New Starts process and other transit
planning activities. The ability to run a single model that only utilizes mode choice if needed can be
satisfied by inclusion of a toggle that enables or disables the mode choice module. This setup would
provide a single, integrated model that could be used by both the NFRMPO and the City of Fort
Collins.
The city's maintenance responsibility would be reduced to the mode choice portion of the model. The
remainder of the model would be maintained by the MPO.
LSA will perform the following tasks related to the integration of the city and MPO models:
Integration of the city's mode choice model with the updated 2000 base year NFR MPO
Travel Model.
• Adjustment of NFR MPO model dialog boxes and performance reports. Dialog box changes
will include the addition of an option to run a mode choice component consistent with the Fort
Collins Mode Choice Model, development of script that disables the mode choice component
if required files are not available, and the addition of mode choice files and options to the
NFR model's scenario manager. Performance report changes will include integration of mode
choice results with the updated NFR performance report.
Development of a regional transit flag that would allow the mode choice/mode split toggle to
be controlled on a more detailed level. This would allow trip interchanges within a selected
jurisdiction to be factored using mode split. while allowing trips between the selected
jurisdiction and other jurisdiction(s) to be modeled using mode choice. This task would
include but not be limited to:
Modification of input files to include this flag,
Development of an input table that controls flag effects: and
Adaptation of the model script to include this capability.
Testing and troubleshooting of the integrated model. This will include assurance, including
but not limited to testing, that the mode choice module is interfacing correctly with the NFR
MPO model. This will not include testing of issues determined to be internal to the city's mode
choice model script. Although changes to that script that are required to make it compatible
to the TransCad version and build that is used to deliver the NFRMPO model must be
performed in keeping with the level of effort outlined in this scope.
The work effort described above will produce a regional model that is primarily based on mode split,
but provides the option to run mode choice for selected zones. Although inclusion of the Fort Collins
Mode Choice Model would significantly reduce the effort required to develop additional mode choice
capabilities in the region, development and calibration of such capabilities would require additional
effort.
Calibration of regional coefficients, development of the capability to vary logic coefficients by
jurisdiction, and creation of additional transit route systems would require additional efforts.
Task 3 Deliverables
North Front Range Regional Travel Model in TransCAD software with custom scripting,
automated procedures, a user-friendly interface, and a switching algorithm that will allow the
use of either the Fort Collins' mode choice process or the full regional mode split process
User's Guide for installing and running the MPO model
Gayle Foos - RE: Proposed LSA Contract amendment Page 1
From: Suzette Thieman
To: "Elizabeth.Kemp@dot.state.co. us".GWIA60.FC1
Date: 3/26/03 4:44PM
Subject: RE: Proposed LSA Contract amendment
Lizzie,
This is our first year of bringing modeling work in house. I knew we would need help but wasn't quite sure
how much, so I do have extra in my budget to cover this amendment. So nothing is deferred or changed
on the budget.
Suzette Thieman
Regional Transportation Planning Manager
North Front Range MPO
970-416-2257
970-416-2406fax
sthieman@nfrmpo.org
>>> "Kemp, Elizabeth"<Elizabeth.Kernp@dot.state.co.us> 03/26/03 01:30PM >>>
Suzette -
These change orders to do additional modeling work look fine to me. My only question is whether the new
activites can be covered with the budget you already have in place for UPWP item A.2. Can they? If so,
is anything else being deferred, etc. as a result? If not, how do you propose to pay for the additional cost?
(e.g. moving funding from another UPWP item, or adding new funding?)
Thanks!
Lizzie Kemp
MPO Planning Unit
CDOT (303) 757-9763
-----Original Message -----
From: Suzette Thieman fmailto:sthieman(anfrmpo.orgl
Sent: Monday, March 24, 2003 4:18 PM
To: Kemp, Elizabeth
Cc: Andy Gomez; Gayle Foos
Subject: Proposed LSA Contract amendment
Lizzie,
Attached is a change order request for our modeling consultant, LSA.
We are adding a substantial increase to this contract from $29,980 to
$49,905. There has been significant increases in the Consultants time,
as well as paying for unanticipated improvements on the mode choice
component, as outlined in the two attached letters.
I met with LSA and reviewed these changes in depth and feel comfortable
with the recommended changes. Please let me know your comments as soon
as possible. We are trying to complete the work with LSA by the end of
April.
Note: Look under C.O.2 tab for this change order information.
If you have any questions, please let me know.
Suzette Thieman
Gayle Foos - RE: Proposed LSA Contract amendment
Page 2
Regional Transportation Planning Manager
North Front Range MPO
970416-2257
970416-2406 fax
sthieman(5nfrmpo.org
CC: "Kathy.Engelson@dot. state. co. us".GWIA60.FC1; Andy Gomez; Gayle Foos
Gayle Foos - LSA Contract Amendment Page 1
From:
To:
Date:
Subject
Suzette Thieman
Gayle Foos; Jim O'Neill
4/10/03 1:50PM
LSA Contract Amendment
Jim,
Attached is the revised Scope of Work for the LSA contract. I've also attached a revised table for
paragraph 5. 1 have printed out the change order and will send it to LSA this afternoon for their signature.
Let me know if there is anything else we should do from this end.
CC: Bacon, Everett
Table for Paragraph 5
Haurf Rafe,
Ei Imaltod Firs
`EotkO Cost
Err►" Icr` ee .
$155.00
20
$3,100.00
Ray Moe, Managing Principal
$120.00
147
$17,640.00
Everett Bacon, Project Manager
$70.00
341
$23,870.00
Sean McAtee, Transportation Engineer
$85.00
12
$1,020.00
Shelly Bruno, Graphics Technician
$85.00
22
$1,870.00
Michael Hallock-Solomon, Transportation Planner
$65.00
37
$2,405.00
Elissa Palmer, Office Assistant
TOW
579
$49,905.00
u:/my documents/Isa modeling/contract revision 2.xls
Exhibit "A"
Scope of Services
As indicated in the Request for Proposal, the LSA consultants will provide mentoring, project
development, training, and TransCAD scripting services. Throughout the project's duration, Everett
and Sean will review work effort results with Suzette and Andy and maintain written records of tasks
topics, and issues to effectively manage the project. Actual work will be performed by the NFR MPO
staff. The following task and service descriptions were prepared with this arrangement in mind.
Changes made to the scope to reflect the April 2003 contract amendments are shown in italics in the
following tasks and subtasks. The additional efforts are due in part to a combination of factors,
including direction from the model peer review task force including additional enhancements for the
MPO model.
Task 1- Preparation of the 2000 Base Year Model
Through Task 1, the MPO's travel model will be updated, calibrated, and validated to 2000 Base Year
conditions.
Subtask 1.1 — Project Coordination
At the onset of the project, LSA will meet with MPO staff to determine specific work tasks, schedules,
products, and responsibilities. Throughout the project, we will be available to meet on a regular
basis. Our scope of services assumes that meetings will occur weekly or bi-weekly, but also
recognizes that periods of higher or lower intensity will occur. LSA will maintain written records of
tasks, topics, and issues for effective project management and documentation purposes. Invoices
and progress reports will be prepared as specified by the MPO.
LSA will provide mentoring, guidance, and training to MPO staff. While the work effort made by MPO
staff is substantial. the amount of work and the progress on parallel efforts that must be coordinated
have and will cause LSA to increase participation on these efforts, develop work products in addition
to the MPO's efforts, and conduct multiple reviews and training sessions on specific topics.
Subtask 1.2 — Socioeconomic Input Data/Traffic Analysis Zones
The wealth of information available through Census 2000 and the MPO's recent household survey
will require careful preparation to ensure quality. LSA will work with MPO staff to guide the extraction
of data and information from various sources while maintaining vigilance over the accuracy,
consistency, and overall quality of the data. These functions will take advantage of the MPO's
process for estimating population, household, and employment growth. Output results and formats
from the MPO's land use process (e.g., CommunityViz) will be fully integrated. LSA will prepare a
utility program that extracts and formats data from CommunityViz for automated input into TransCAD.
Subtask 1.2.1 — TAZ Structure Disaggregation
The original scope of services recognized that some changes to the traffic analysis zone
(TAZ) structure would be likely. However. based on input from the peer reviewers. the TAZ
structure will be re-evaluated and adjusted to accommodate future potential and planned
growth patterns. While this may seem like an obvious task it was our understanding that the
current model's zone structure already took this into account. As part of this effort. LSA will
spend considerable time with MPO and local government staff to review and recommend
adjustments to the TAZs.
Subtask 1.2.2 — Area Types
tThe MPO model includes three area types: central business district (CBD). urban, and rural.
Based on the discussion at the peer review meeting, a new Suburban area type will be added
to better represent the more recent development patterns and styles occurring in the region.
This additional definition requires that input speeds and capacities be developed and
calibrated as well. LSA will research appropriate speeds and capacities by area type for use
in the model These input attributes may require adjustment during the calibration and
validation phases.
in addition, several areas in the region are currently defined as CBD in the MPO model. The
desire to retain CBD areas in the downtowns of the three larger cities in the region prompted
a discussion regarding the differences among those downtowns. The resulting
recommendation was to review the downtown areas, including the local downtown
development authorities' CBD boundaries, and possibly define two or more downtown area
types based on the character of land uses and roadway functions. This includes possible
adjustments to the input speeds, capacities, and terminal times in the model. The MPO staff
will research the appropriate boundary definitions among the various CBD's in the region and
determine the difference between the different CBD types. LSA will review the CBD
definitions and develop appropriate input parameters. The MPO staff will update the network
and TAZ layers to reflect the new CBD definitions.
Subtask 1, 2.3 — Employment Data
The employment data has been singled out among the other work elements due to the length
of time taken to develop this data, the multiple reviews and coordination meetings associated
with this data, and the unexpected amount of time required by LSA to review, understand,
and comment on the Forecasts of Jobs and Population report prepared by the Center for
Business and Economic Forecasting. LSA's additional efforts on this task include identifying
the types and location of jobs missing from the ES202 data. Coordination and meetings with
DRCOG and Bill Kendall have required LSA's increased participation.
Subtask 1.3 — Roadway Network Attributes
LSA will provide guidance on the speed, capacity, functional classification, area type, and other
attributes of the roadway network. Through our scripting services, LSA will provide a custom,
automated process for efficiently updating information in the roadway networks. Based on the
discussion in Subtask 1.2.2, new and revised area type definitions will require LSA to develop
corresponding input speeds and capacities by area type and functional classification. These
attributes may require adjustment during the model calibration and validation phase.
Subtask 1.4 — Observed Data Analysis/Calibration of Model Variables and
Parameters
LSA will work with MPO staff to determine the procedures and quality control checks for estimating
travel behavior from various sources, including the MPO's recent household survey and the Census
Transportation Planning Package (CTPP). Information used in the model in this regard includes but
is not limited to the following: trip generation rates, friction factors, mode split factors, time -of -day
factors, and others. These will be determined by trip purpose as applicable and compared to
previous local data and similar information from state and national surveys for an added level of
quality control.
Subtask 1.4.1 — Time -of -Day Assignment Definitions and Directional Factors
Based on the discussion at the January 29 peer review meeting, the number and definition of
time periods for the traffic assignment model should be determined based on data from the
2001 Household Travel Survey, As originally envisioned, this was to be done using either the
MPO or Fort Collins model definitions, which would have been a much easier effort.
Additional review of the household survey data will be necessary. MPO staff will conduct the
analysis and produce tables and plots of trip start times. LSA will review and recommend
appropriate time -of -day periods and directional factors.
Subtask 1.4.2 — Trip Purpose and Linked Trips
The household survey report and data identifies trip purpose for each trip record using the
starting and ending place types. However, this is not exactly suitable for application in the
model because of several nuances that may occur. Because of the need to define these trips
as accurately as possible; LSA will spend additional resources defining trip purposes and
conducting quality control tests to verify results. LSA will develop the equations for identifying
the trip purposes in the survey data. MPO staff will code the equations and produce the
results from the data. LSA will review the results and recommend changes to the equations.
The 2001 Household Travel Survey report does not discuss linked trip characteristics or
suggest that trip linking was considered in the survey analysis. As a result, this is an
additional work task that should be conducted. Due to the nature of the analysis, the effort is
fairly complex and time-consuming; with a fair arnount of LSA training and work anticipated.
LSA will develop the equations and methodology for identifying potential linked trips in the
data. MPO staff will code the equations and produce results. LSA will review results and
recommended which trips should be linked.
Subtask 1,4.3— Traffic Counts
Similar to other work elements, the development of a traffic count database was included in
the original scope of services. but LSA's involvement shifted from one of guidance and review
to one in which LSA staff identified specific counts to be used on links throughout the
network.
Subtask 1.4.4 — Additional Household Travel Survey Data Analysis
One of the most concerning work elements of this effort is the analysis of 2001 Household
Survey Data. The information summaries contained in the survey report are not sufficiently
detailed to provide the necessary information for the model. in addition, the sample data
needs to be expanded to the universe of households in the region to support trip attraction
rate development. Prudent analysis practices make it necessary to analyze the data to verify
the analysis and results described in the survey report.
These issues and the fact that the data will be augmented with travel data for residents 15
years and younger make it clear that LSA's level of effort in this regard will be much higher
than anticipated in the original scope. Much of the additional effort of analyzing the survey
data will be done by MPO staff. However, additional review, analysis; and development of
analysis algorithms will be LSA's responsibility.
LSA will develop the algorithm for expanding the survey data. The 1990 PUMS data that will
be used for this process is already available, 2000 PUMS data may not be available in the
timeframe of this project. MPO staff will provide the regional marginal control totals to factor
the PUMS data. MPO staff will apply the data and Frater the regional PUMS data to derive
the expansion factors. LSA will review the results.
Subtask 1.5 — External Travel
When updating the model to the 2000 Base Year, much information will be available regarding travel
within the North Front Range. A lesser amount of information is known about travel that leaves,
enters, or crosses the region. These external trips are represented as Internal -External (I-E) and
External -External (E-E) travel. The household survey and CTPP data will greatly assist with the
development of the I-E estimates. E-E trips will be calculated using traffic counts and growth rates at
external stations, the I-E trips, and other sources if available.
Subtask 1.6 — Validation of the 2000 Base Year Model
With recent travel behavior data, new estimates of socioeconomic data, and a refined traffic count
database, the model will be ready for a comprehensive validation. The obvious point of validation is
to verify that the model can reasonably replicate observed conditions. Once done, the model can be
used to forecast future conditions given a set of land use and transportation assumptions. Therefore,
a thorough validation is a very important task in the model's development. To this end, LSA will
develop validation guidelines that will include statistical comparisons, performance results, screenline
and link comparisons to traffic count data, and information on allowable errors.
Due to the many new and enhanced tasks associated with the development of the North Front Range
model, the calibration and validation activities will require additional efforts beyond that which was
originally described in the scope of work. Much of the additional effort associated with model
calibration and validation is included in the development of specific model parameters (e.g.. time of
day factors, input speeds and capacities for new area types; etc.). It is anticipated that additional
validation runs will be necessary due to the number of changes proposed for the model.
Subtask 1.7 — Performance Summaries
As stated previously, LSA will incorporate standard performance summaries and additional measures
at various geographical levels as desired by the MPO. This will programmed in GISDK or Visual
Basic and yield a custom, user-friendly interface that will provide comprehensive, consistent results
for model development or alternatives analysis. LSA will replicate the air quality conformity
calculations used by the Air Pollution Control Division (APCD) within the performance module so that
emission results can be summarized within nonattainment areas for comparison with emission
budgets. Mobile6 parameters and emission factors will be utilized consistent with APCD input files.
These activities will require coordination with APCD.
Subtask 1.7.1 — MOBILE6 Emission Factor Modeling
The original scope of services identifies the application of EPA's MOBILE6 emission factor
model as part of the regional travel model. Previous MOBILE model versions were run in a
manner very similar to that of their predecessors. However, MOBiLE6 input file structure is
significantly different than that of MOBILES, requiring additional efforts on LSA's part to build
the new files. On the other hand, much of the work currently being conducted to apply
MOBILE6 within the Fort Collins model as part of their Transportation Master Plan effort will
be available for application in the regional model so that redundant efforts can be minimized.
The MOBILE& files and algorithms will be the responsibility of LSA. As indicated above,
there is a significant effort associated with this process that has been conducted for other
related projects. LSA's level of effort for MOBILE6 incorporation in the model reflects the
cost -savings associated with work already conducted.