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HomeMy WebLinkAboutRESPONSE - RFP - P 846VANTAGE MARKETING RESEARCH, INC. June 13, 2002 Susie Gordon Project Manager City of Fort Collins Post Office Box 580 Fort Collins, Colorado 80522-0580 Dear Ms Gordon: On behalf of Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. I am pleased to submit this proposal to conduct a public opinion survey of Fort Collins residents regarding the health effects of secondhand tobacco smoke. Our research professionals are excited about this project, and eager to work with the City in completing it. Our proposed methodology will ensure that the product of this research is a reliable and valid representation of the opinions of Fort Collins residents. Furthermore, we can complete the work in a timely fashion. Please contact me with any questions regarding the project or our proposal. Sincerely, qq ?JP shelman sident 9724 WEST QUARTO AVENUE • LTTLETON,COLORADO • 80128 PHONE: (303) 948-5032 • EMAIL: VMR@IX.NETCOM.COM City of Fort Collins P-846: Public Opinion Survev Selection Although we will survey adult Fort Collins residents, the actual sampling units are randomly generated telephone numbers within the Fort Collins geographic or political boundaries. This method, known as random digit dialing (RDD), uses phone prefixes from Fort Collins and then adds the last four digits from a random number generator. Sample numbers are screened for businesses, modems, faxes and disconnected numbers. One feature of RDD sampling is that unlisted numbers can be included in the sample, thereby providing a more representative sample. The survey instrument will include screening questions to ensure that potential respondents are indeed qualified, adult Fort Collins residents. Response The potential for non -response bias is a critical issue with this survey because it directly impacts the validity of survey results. If adult residents who are randomly selected but do not respond have opinions that are significantly different from those who do respond, then the survey results may be invalid as a representation of the entire population's opinions. A method commonly used to overcome this problem is to compare the sample demographic characteristics to the population under study, and then statistically weight the sample results so that they better represent the population. However, we propose using two methods that will yield a higher level of validity. First, we will closely monitor responses as data are collected to ensure that certain groups are not under or over represented in the sample. Second, we will specify a higher number of call-backs to non -respondents than is typically used in telephone surveys. We will specify five call-back attempts, rather than the standard three attempts. Using a greater number of call-back attempts has two advantages. First, response rate will be relatively higher, thereby reducing the potential for non -response bias. Based on past surveys of a similar nature, we anticipate a response rate of 40 to 45 percent with five call-back attempts, compared to less than 30 percent with three call-back attempts. Second, we can compare the opinions of respondents reached with one or two call attempts to those reached on the fourth or fifth attempt to determine if non -response bias is an issue. For example, if no statistically significant difference exists between the two groups (one or two attempts compared to four or five attempts), then the opinions of non -respondents probably do not vary significantly from those who do respond. Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. 8 City of Fort Collins P-846: Public Opinion Survev Data Collection Instrument In our discussion of data collection we established the need to keep the interview length at about 10 minutes, and we propose a series of interview questions that will take about 10 minutes to complete. In addition to qualifying and demographic questions, we recommend that the core of the interview consist of a series of statements with which respondents can express a level of agreement or disagreement on a four or six point scale. Using this approach we can test residents' level of agreement with (or support of) the "model" smoke free ordinance as well as variations of it. We can also use paired comparison testing to determine which variations of the ordinance residents prefer. Furthermore, the data resulting from this approach will allow us to employ analysis techniques with greater analytical capability than simple crosstabs. In either format we would rotate the order of presentation of the choices to eliminate ordering biases. Data Analysis Survey instrument design and the plan for data analysis go hand in hand. The types of data collected determine which analytical techniques can be used. If we use the types of questions discussed above, then we can perform analyses that, for example, segment the population by their opinions, and we can analyze the variation between groups of residents based on demographic or geographic factors. Furthermore, we can objectively determine relative community acceptance of the "model" ordinance and modified versions of it. The end result of this analysis is the ability to make better -informed decisions. If a stratified random sampling approach is used, then the analysis will also include weighting sub -group responses so that their impact on the overall results is proportional to their incidence in the population. We will provide a complete report of the survey results. Our standard report consists of three sections: a summary of key findings, discussion of the survey results and analyses, and an appendix that documents the survey methodology. We can provide frequency and crosstab tables as a separate report or as an appendix to the main report. We will produce the report with either color or black and white graphics, and provide the City with one bound copy and one unbound copy. In addition, we will provide an electronic version of the report in Adobe Acrobat format, and an electronic version of the raw survey data in any commonly used database format. Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. 9 City of Fort Collins P-846: Public Opinion Survev SCHEDULE The total amount of time required to complete the project is dependant upon which sampling option is selected. The minimum amount of time is 23 days and the maximum is 43 days. Days are defined as calendar days, not business days. We will work weekends to complete the project on schedule. However, the City should note that data collection time is scheduled on a first -come -first -served basis, and specific dates are not guaranteed until a signed contract is in place. The initial start date is based on the assumption that the City of Fort Collins will require one week, beginning June 24, 2002, to review proposals and prepare all the necessary paperwork. However, we are prepared to start at any time. Number of Task Start Finish Days Preliminary meeting and survey 7/1/02 7/09/02 5 instrument design Data collection (Depends on sampling option selected) Option 1 7/10/02 7/17102 7 Option 2 7110/02 7/19/02 10 Option 3 7/10/02 7/25/02 16 Option 4 7/10/02 7/29/02 20 Option 5 7/10/02 8/02/02 24 Option 6 7/10102 8/05/02 27 Data editing, database set-up Depends on completion 1 of data collection Statistical analysis and report Depends on completion 10 of data collection Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. 10 City of Fort Collins P-846: Public Opinion Survey COST PROPOSAL Our cost proposal is presented in three parts. The first part gives a detailed description of the professional, clerical and materials costs associated with the project. The second part shows data collection costs by sampling option. The third part summarizes total project costs by sampling option. Total project cost will ultimately depend on which sampling option is selected. Professional, Clerical and Material Costs Description Hours Rate Total Survey management (includes phone and Email discussions, meetings, data collection management and general project management) Eshelman 7 $85 $595 Heimbach 2 $125 $250 Instrument design Eshelman 17 $85 $1,445 Heimbach 4 $125 $500 Data editing, database set-up Eshelman 6 $85 $510 Statistical analysis and report Eshelman 45 $85 $3,825 Heimbach 4 $125 $500 Total professional 85 $7,625 Clerical $180 Materials $100 Total professional, clerical and materials $7,905 Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. 11 City Of Fort Collins P-846: Public Opinion Survev Data Collection Costs Our cost proposal includes six different sampling options. All of the options assume a 10-minute interview and five call-back attempts. An interview designed to last longer than 10 minutes will cost more for data collection. Sampling Option Total Sample Size (number of completed interviews) Number of Sub -Groups of 380 Responses Total Data Collection Cost Option 1 380 0 $4,880 Option 2 760 2 $9,198 Option 3 1,140 3 $13,515 Option 4 1,520 4 $17,832 Option 5 1,900 5 $22,149 Option 6 2,280 6 $26,467 Summary of Total Project Cost by Sampling Option Sampling Option Professional, Clerical and Materials Data Collection Total Project Cost Option 1 $7,905 $4,880 $12,785 Option 2 $7,905 $9,198 $17,103 Option 3 $7,905 $13,515 $21,420 Option 4 $7,905 $17,832 $25,737 Option 5 $7,905 $22,149 $30,054 Option 6 $7,905 $26,467 $34,372 Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. 12 City of Fort Collins P-846: Public Opinion Survey PROPOSALFORM Please enter the number of respondents that this poll will survey: • From 380 to 2,280. The number of respondents depends upon the number of population sub -groups that City wants to analyze and the sampling option selected. Please indicate the methodology that this survey will follow: • Telephone survey. Please see Methodology Section. Please indicate the length of time that this survey will take to conduct: • From 23 to 43 days, depending on the sampling option selected. Please indicate the timeframe during which this survey will be conducted: • Work can begin on July 1, 2002 or sooner. Completion date depends on sampling option selected, and how soon we receive notice to proceed. Please enter the price of conducting this survey: • From $12,785 to $34,372 depending on the sampling option selected. Declaration of Impartiality: • Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. declares that the company has never accepted money from special interest groups, including the tobacco industry and tobacco industry investors, or any anti -smoking advocacy organization. The company further d res that it has never perform d any wo for any special interest groups. Ja . Eshelman, President Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. (303) 948-5032 8724 West Quarto Avenue Littleton, Colorado 80128 Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. 13 Proposal to Conduct A Public Opinion Survey Concerning the Health Effects of Secondhand Tobacco Smoke Prepared for: THE CITY OF FORT COLLINS Prepared by: VANTAGE MARKETING RESEARCH, INC. 8724 West Quarto Avenue Littleton, Colorado 80128 CONTACT James R. Eshelman, President Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. 8724 West Quarto Avenue Littleton, Colorado 80128 Phone: (303) 948-5032 Email: vmr(Mix.netcom.com June 13, 2002 n ' v'4� James R. Eshelman President City of FOIL Collins P-846: Public Opinion Survev INTRODUCTION Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. is pleased to submit its proposal to plan and conduct a public opinion survey regarding the health effects of secondhand tobacco smoke and possible new smoking regulations for the City of Fort Collins. In particular, the study will assess the levels of acceptance for a set of smoke - free ordinances. Our team of research professionals is excited about this project, and eager to work with the City in completing it. Our proposed methodology will ensure that the product of this research is a reliable and valid representation of the opinions of Fort Collins residents. Furthermore, we can complete the work in a timely fashion. The proposal begins with a brief summary of our qualifications. This is followed by a description of our proposed methodology, a schedule for completing the project and a cost proposal. A completed copy of the Proposal Form, including a declaration of impartiality, is attached as the final page of this proposal. We acknowledge receipt of Addendum Number 1 to RFP P-846, received at our office on June 13, 2002. Questions regarding this proposal should be directed to: James R. Eshelman, President Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. 8724 West Quarto Avenue Littleton, Colorado 80128 Phone: (303) 948-5032 Email: vmr _ix.netcom.com Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. 1 City of Fort Collins P-846: Public Opinion Survev QUALIFICATIONS Located in Littleton, Colorado, our primary business is designing and implementing surveys, analyzing survey data, and transforming data into information that is useful to decision -makers. With a staff of two full-time employees and several selectively chosen subcontractors, we have completed numerous research projects for state and local government entities in Colorado and other states, both as primary contractors and as subcontractors to larger firms. We offer considerable expertise in survey research methods, and apply it to help our clients make the most informed decisions possible. Furthermore, our objectives for any project are the client's objectives. We do not view projects as simply completing a scope of services. We often go beyond the scope of services to deliver a product that has lasting value to the client, and in which we can take pride. Recently Completed Projects Below is a list of projects that Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. has recently completed for state and local government entities. City of Fort Collins Citizen Survey, Fort Collins, Colorado: Designed, implemented and analyzed a survey of Fort Collins residents to measure satisfaction with specific services and programs, and to measure citizen spending priorities and information needs. Prepared report of analysis for publication. City of Greenwood Village Citizen Survey, Greenwood Village, Colorado: Processed and analyzed data from a survey of Greenwood Village residents to measure satisfaction with services and monitor satisfaction over time. Prepared report of analysis for publication and presented results to City Council. Town of Lyons Economic Indicators Study, Lyons, Colorado: Gathered and analyzed data on retail sales, square footage and retail establishments to estimate the potential impact on sales tax revenue of expanding business. Southeast Corridor Team (Colorado Department of Transportation and Regional Transportation District) Baseline Travel Survey, Denver, Colorado: Conducted a survey of Southeast 1-25 Corridor users to develop a statistically valid profile of travel behavior in the corridor prior to construction, and examine interest in a variety of transportation services and awareness of entities that provide transportation assistance. Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. 2 City of Fort Collins P-846: Public Opinion Survey Denver Regional Council of Governments RideArrangers Carpool Database Project, Denver, Colorado: Collect, maintain and analyze data on an ongoing basis from participants in RideArrangers carpool matching and other databases. Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) Value Express Lanes Project, Denver, Colorado: Designed, implemented and analyzed survey of Denver metro area drivers to estimate acceptance and use of the concept. Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) Share the Road Survey, Denver, Colorado: Designed and implemented a telephone survey of El Paso County, Colorado residents to measure awareness and recall of CDOT ad campaign. References Kelly DiMartino Public Information Officer City of Fort Collins (970)416-2028 Heather Ruddy Assistant to the City Manager City of Greenwood Village (303)486-5764 Stuart Anderson Principal UrbanTrans, Inc. (303) 832-6357 Amy Ford Project Manager Colorado Department of Transportation (303)820-5236 Joe Mouton RideArrangers Manager Denver Regional Council of Governments (303) 480-6757 Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. 3 City of Fort Collins P-846: Public Opinion Survey Project Organization and Key Personnel We realize that the City of Forts Collins is on a tight schedule to complete this project. The key personnel assigned to this project will commit to whatever level of availability is required to complete it on schedule. Below, we present our organizational table, which shows key personnel, along with each person's role, hourly billing rate, and percent of total project hours. Given the nature of the survey topic and the importance of credibility, we believe it wise to use two expert, impartial researchers to develop and review survey questions and sampling methods. Summaries of key personnel experience follow this table. Name Role Hourly Billing Rate Proportion of Project Hours James R Eshelman, Project manager; questionnaire MS and methodology design, data $85 88 o analysis and reporting, presentations. Arthur E. Heimbach, Review and advise on data Ph.D. collection instrument, sampling $125 12% methods and final report. NO CONFLICTS OF INTEREST: Both researchers assigned to this project are impartial and objective professionals. Neither of them has ever accepted money or performed any work for special interest groups, including the tobacco industry and tobacco industry investors, or any anti -smoking advocacy organization. James R. Eshelman, MS is president of Vantage Marketing Research, Inc., and the primary researcher and manager for this project. He has 19 years of experience in marketing research with organizations that include A.C. Nielson, W.R. Grace, Denver Regional Council of Governments and Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. In addition to this experience, Jim earned a Master of Science in Marketing from the University of Colorado, Denver. His graduate work focused on service quality measurement, methods to improve survey response rates and applying marketing research methods to public involvement in transportation planning. Jim has been the primary researcher for all of the projects completed by Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. 4 City Of Fort Collins P-846: Public Opinion Survey Arthur E. Heimbach, Ph.D. will be under contract with Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. for this project. Art's role will be to review and advise on methodological issues. He has 25 years of experience in survey research. He has owned and operated his own consulting firm, Heimbach Research, for more than 10 years and his experience includes serving as Director of Research with RRC Associates in Boulder, Colorado, and serving as an adjunct faculty member at the University of Colorado, Boulder. He earned a Ph.D. in consumer behavior and research methods from the University of Washington. His experience with local government in Colorado includes research projects for the City of Boulder, Town of Vail and Denver Regional Council of Governments. Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. 5 City Of Fort Collins P-846: Public Opinion Survev METHOD It is imperative that the survey results are a valid representation of the opinions of Fort Collins residents. Therefore, data collection, sample size, sample selection, response and the survey instrument are all critical elements in achieving reliable, valid results. In this section we discuss these elements and our proposed method in some detail. Data Collection Method The time frame for this project (six weeks or less) eliminates just about any data collection method other than telephone. Online data collection is also relatively fast, but it would systematically exclude residents without Internet access (a significant proportion of the adult Fort Collins population), thereby invalidating the results. By using telephone as the survey medium, we can collect responses in a relatively short period of time (1-3 weeks), maintain control over the sample on a day -today basis, and achieve a higher response rate and therefore more reliable results than might be achieved with a mail survey. Aside from excluding households without telephones, the disadvantages of using this method are mainly in survey complexity and length. The tasks that respondents are asked to perform and the questions asked must be easily understood through verbal communication. Ideally, survey length should not exceed 10 minutes, and under no circumstances should it exceed 15 minutes. After 15 minutes respondent fatigue sets in, the incidence of respondent call terminations increases dramatically, and respondents are more likely to provide less thoughtful responses in an effort to complete the interview as quickly as possible. Sample Size A randomly selected, probability sample of 380 responses yields a maximum sampling margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. This level of reliability is the usual standard in survey research. If the City were only interested measuring the opinions of adult Fort Collins residents as a whole, then we would recommend this sample size. However, the Request for Proposal suggests the need for this level of reliability for one or more population sub -groups, which requires a sample of 380 responses for each sub- group. For example, if the City is interested in measuring and comparing opinions by Council district, then doing so with adequate statistical reliability requires a sample of 380 responses for each of the six Council districts, and a total sample of 2,280 responses (6x380). Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. 6 City of Fort Collins P-846: Public Opinion Survey To ensure reliability, our recommendation is to collect 380 responses from each population sub -group of interest. Our proposal includes six different sampling options. The first option is a simple random draw of 380 responses from the Fort Collins population. The remaining five options are stratified random samples, beginning with two population sub -group samples of 380 and increasing up to six sub -group samples of 380. We will work with the City to identify critical sub- groups and develop a final sampling plan that is both efficient and yields the required level of reliability. The table below describes these sampling options. Sample Type Sub -Groups Total Sample Size Option 1 Simple random selection. In proportion to the 380 population. Option 2 Stratified random selection. 2 sub -groups of 380 each. For example, 380 males and 760 380 females. Option 3 Stratified random selection. 3 sub -groups of 380 each. For example, 380 responses 1,140 from each of three age groups. Option 4 Stratified random selection. 4 sub -groups of 380 each. For example, 380 responses 1,520 from each quadrant of the City of Fort Collins Option 5 Stratified random selection. 5 sub -groups of 380 each. For example, 380 responses 1,900 from each of five income categories. Option 6 Stratified random selection. 6 sub -groups of 380 each. For example, 380 responses 2,280 from each of six Council districts. Vantage Marketing Research, Inc. 7