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HomeMy WebLinkAboutWORK ORDER - RFP - P745 TRAVEL DEMAND MODELCity of Port Collins Admi rative Services t Purchasing Division WORK ORDER FORM PURSUANT TO AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CITY OF FORT COLLINS AND Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc DATED April 13, 2000 Work Order Number 1 Purchase Order Number Protect Title Travel Demand Modeling Commencement Date May 1, 2000 Completion Date December 31, 2000 Maximum Fee (time and reimbursable direct costs) 1 i $7,600 00, 2) $65,300, 3) $ 37,000 00 Not to exceed One Hundred Nine Thousand Nine Hundred Dollars ($109,900 00) Protect Description Travel Demand Modeling Scope of Services 1) Evaluate Work done to date, 21 Create Base Year Model, 3) Perform Modeling work for the MPO's next LRTP Acceptance Professional agrees to perform the services identified above and on the attached forms in accordance with the terms and conditions contained herein and in the Professional Services Agreement between the parties In the event of a conflict between or ambiguity in the terms of the Professional Services Agreement and this work order (including the attached forms) the Professional Services Agreement shall control Pgrofe o Dat0 CC Purchasing ��4 +12-flao 1 User The attached forms consisting of pages are hereby accepted and incorporated herein, by this reference, and Notice to Proceed is hereby give NFRT&AO and C t of FIRT.U011jins By yJ Ronald Phillips, Executiv Director B O'Neill II, CPPO r of Purchasing and Risk Date; 1 256 IN MountainAvenue • PO Box 580 • Fort Collins, CO 80522-0580 • (970) 221-6775 • FAX (970) 221-6707 destination survey as a basis for establishing time -of -day rates by trip purpose Next, we suggest using TransCAD's derauit hourly factors QtranscadltabUrourlybin), which are based on National Cooperative Highway Research Program Study #187, for filling the gaps and verifying data from the origin -destination survey. After these steps have been taken, the model can be simulated incrementally to produce time - of -day results for use in air quality conformity analyses ■ Considerable research has been conducted by the modeling community on volume - delay equations used in the assignment process. This research includes experiments with alternate forms of equations that are different from the classic Bureau of Public Roads formula established more than 40 years ago We believe this model, given its wide range of areas, should have the capability of supporting varying forms of volume -delay equations by functional classification (e g., collector, arterial, freeway, etc.) and area (e g., Central Business District, suburban, rural, etc.) Using the model expectation guidelines identified in the study design, and depending upon the involvement role chosen by the MPO, we estimate this effort will take between 9 and 12 months This timeline allows for development of the ongin-destination survey and time -of -day modeling C Perform Modehng WOrIz for the MPO's Next LRTP The initial model simulation performed in this area of development is known as the 'Existing Plus Committed" (E+C) alternative This includes land use and socio-economic data representing a 20-year horizon, and a network that contains all existing transportation facilities plus those committed improvements Results from this initial simulation form the basis for establishing the alternatives for the region's Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP). After the results from the 20-year E+C simulation have been processed, Kimley-Horn's approach to this area of modeling is to clearly define the alternatives This definition also includes identifying the expected performance reporting (e g , vehrcie-miles of travel, vehicle -hours of travel, etc.) needed from the simulations for effective evaluations We propose developing a standard library of line -by-line reports and GIS graphics illustrating model output for agreed -upon variables. We estimate this effort to take between 2 and 4 months, depending upon the number of alternatives established for the LRTP and Kimsey-Horn's involvement in this area of the project As with other areas of mode{ development, we can perform the alternative simulations, or Kimley-Horn could coach the MPO with their development, or our involvement could be a blending of the two, Scope of Services The Request for Proposals identifies six key modeling areas in which our team may assist NFRTAQPC in developing the regional MPO model While the task scoping in these six areas has not formally been identined at this time, Kimley-Horn has prepared the following approaches to developing these six areas A Evaluate Toile Done to Date Kimley-Horn has worked with the MPO over the past few months to initially evaluate where the regional model is in As translation from MfnUTP to TransCAD Our preliminary evaluation has been that while the model data has been successfully translated and conflated to actually match map lines, work still needs to be done to calibrate the models (trip generation, trip distribution, mode split, and trip assignment) and validate the results to a base year We also noted that some modeling advantages in the TransCAD software were not being used in the present job stream and that these advantages may improve model results Based on this evaluation, we discussed with NFRTAQPC the options they may want to consider for implementing TransCAD While there are present day projects that a TransCAD model may benefit (e g , Mason Street Corridor Study in Fort Collins), it is our understanding that the MPO is primaiily interested in readying the model to support development of NFRTAQPC's Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) Our approach to this area of the scope wdf be to briefly revisit our discussions and conclusions with the model stakeholders During this visit, we want to make sure this path is Sill desired by the MPO, and that there have been no significant events to change this direction We recommend this discussion take place during project initiation After we've had this discussion, we will work with NFRTAQPC to determine the remaining effort required to develop the MPO model in TransCAD. As this document is developed, we will want to focus our efforts on the following - First, we will need to determine the remaining datasets that will need to be collected to properly calibrate the models and validate the results. There are common "everyday" data available, such as traffic ceun's and land use /socio- economic information, that will need to be collected from either the MPO or current member jurisdictions and catalogued Some of this information was mentioned in the RFP, including the 1998 Mobility Report Card and information from the City of Fort Collins' modeling effort for the Mason Street Corridor As part of the study design, We will work with NFRTAQPC to identify those datasets, determine how the data should be obtained (i.e., formats), and agree upon collection responsibilities ■ Next, we will need to tackle the unique model datasets and their treatment For example, trip generation and trip drsinbubon models rely heavily upon Household Travel or Origin -Destination surveys for their validation During our past conversations with the MPO, we discussed this survey in particular and noted its importance to this model —particularly for validating city-to-abj travel between Greeley, Fort Collins, and Loveland The problem with these datasets is that they are difficult and often expensive to obtain, however, we believe there are several opportunities to consider here, Through our arscussions, we can devise the best plan for actually developing these datasets, borrowing from other models, or making data assumptions ■ Thud, we believe it is necessary to discuss expectations for the model's results Frankly, when consultants are involved in travel demand model development, the expectations about a model's performance are often a source of conflict with a client Often these conflicts are related to the expectations during the validation phase of model development and revolve around a particular link not producing "acceptable" simulated volumes when compared to the ground count, While models are not perfect predictors of human travel behavior, they can be developed to provide the MPO with a reliable tool for identifying transportation investments in the NFRTAQPC area Let's eliminate the potential for a conflict situation in the beginning by talking about expectations in the study design phase ■ Fourth, the study design should address how much effort should be spent in developing the model's four steps Specifically, our concern is with the mode spirt task The existing travel oemand model has this task; however, it may not be functioning effectively in the TransCAD environment it this is the case, it may be necessary to initially work around this step to keep the model on a prompt schedule for developing the work necessary to implement the LRTP, ■ And finally, we want to discuss the model development roles —for both MPO and consultant staff We consider this very ;mportant—we want NFRTAQPC involvement rn all phases of model development At the conclusion of this project, it will be the MPO staff's responsibility to continue modeling on projects other than the LRTP Truthfully, the only way NFRTAQPC staff can continue with the TransCAD is if they have a working knowledge of the model's development Thus, the study design must clearly identify the involvement that the MPO wants in this process Involvement can range from a "hands -off" approach in which everything is summarized at the model development's conclusion, to a process in which the MPO staff does the development effort and the consultant acts as a "coach" in the process, to somewhere in the middle The product of this effort will be a model development study design document that will guide,the balance of the project Aber meeting with the model stakeholders, Kimley- Horn estimates the study design can be developed within the following two to three weeks B, Create Base Year Model The study design document developed upon project initiation will form the basis for Kimley-Horn's approach to creating the base year model for the NFRTAQPC region As the model is created, there are varying factors that will need to be addressed Incorporating additional TransCAD features that are not used in present job stream For example, the initial translation from MuiUTP relies heavily upon that program's coding techniques These techniques typically generalize descriptions about the network to fit the model into the outdated DOS operating system TransCAD, on the other hand, gives the modeler considerable flexibility in network coding that can improve the overall calibration and validation We recommend taking advantage of this Flexibility and will advise the NFRTAQPC staff about the additional variables and attributes that may be introduced into a new job stream in TransCAD ■ Working with the MPO to establish a current Origin -Destination Survey to help validate the model's trip generation, trip distribution, and mode split steps Conversations with NFRTAQPC staff have suggested that this survey is required for a successful validation of the TransCAD model We have made some initial recommendations to the MPO about how this survey could be economically completed with assistance from Kimley-Horn, These recommendations include assisting with developing the survey instrument, using fraternal organizations (e g , Kiwanis, Jaycees, Chamber of Commerce, stq as the subjects of the survey, working with MPO and student staff to reduce and geocode the data, and then developing the datasets for use in the TransCAD model, ■ Since our initial evaluation of the TransCAD model, the MPO staff has identified the need for time -of -day modeling to be incorporated into the job stream This is to accommodate NFRTAQPC's need to post -process the results for air quality conformity analyses We recommend a mult)-faceted approach to developing this model First, we recommend using data from the aforementioned origin- destination survey as a basis for establishing time -of -day rates by trip purpose Next, we suggest using TransCAD's default hourly factors ( transcadltab\hourly bin), which are based on National Cooperative Highway Research Program Study #187, for filling the gaps and verifying data from the origin -destination survey. After these steps have been taken, the model can be simulated incrementally to produce time - of -day results for use in au quality conformity analyses ■ Considerable research has been conducted by the modeling community on volume - delay equations used in the assignment process This research includes experiments with alternate forms of equations that are different from the classic Bureau of Public Roads formula established more than 40 years ago We believe this model, given its wide range of areas, should have the capability of supporting varying forms of volume -delay equations by functional classification (e g , collector, arterial, freeway, etc ) and area (e g , Central Business District, suburban, rural, etc,) Using the model expectation guidelines identified in the study design, and depending upon the involvement role chosen by the MPO, we estimate this effort will take between 9 and 12 months This timeline allows for development of the origin -destination survey and time -of -day modeling C Perform Modeling Work for the MPO's Next LRTP The initial model simulation performed in this area of development is known as the 'Existing Plus Committed" (E+C) alternative This includes land use and socio-economic data representing a 20-year horizon, and a network that contains all existing transportation facilities plus those committed improvements Results from this initial simulation form the basis for establishing the alternatives for the region's Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP). After the results from the 20-year E+C simulation have been processed, Kimley-Horn's approach to this area of modeling is to clearly define the alternatives This definition also includes identifying the expected performance reporting (e g , vehicle -miles of travel, vehicle -hours of travel, etc.) needed from the simulations for effective evaluations We propose developing a standard library of line -by-line reports and GIS graphics illustrating model output for agreed -upon variables We estimate this effort to take between 2 and 4 month;,, depending upon the number of alternatives established for the LRTP and Krmley-Horn; involvement in this area of the project. As with other areas of model development, we ran perform the alternative simulations, or Kimsey -Horn could coach the MPO with their development, or our involvement could be a blending of the two Admf6rative Services Purchasing Division WORK ORDER FORM PURSUANT TO AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CITY OF FORT COLLINS AND Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc DATED April 13, 2000 Work Order Number 1 Purchase Order Number T > / 2, �16—�-) Project Title Travel Demand Modeling Commencement Date May 1, 2000 Completion Date December 31, 2000 Maximum Fee (time and reimbursable direct costs) 1) $7,600 00, 2) $65,300, 3) $37,000 00 Not to exceed One Hundred Nine Thousand Nine Hundred Dollars ($109,900 00) Project Description- Travel Demand Modeling Scope of Services 1) Evaluate Work done to date, 2) Create Base Year Model, 3) Perform Modeling work for the MPO's next LRTP Professional agrees to perform the services identified above and on the attached forms in accordance with the terms and conditions contained herein and in the Professional Services Agreement between the parties In the event of a conflict between or ambiguity in the terms of the Professional Services Agreement and this work order (including the attached forms) the Professional Services Agreement shall control P�rofes�sio Date CC Purchasing Acceptance 11 User The attached forms consisting of pages are hereby accepted and incorporated herein, by this reference, and Notice to Proceed is hereby give NFRT&A C and City of rt C Ilins By Ronald Phillips, E�xecut e Director By /,` ¢G�� Jam B O'Neill II, CPPO Din ctor of Purchasing and Risk Management Date C-)l�' 256 W Mountain Avenue • PO Box 580 • Fort Collins, CO 80522-0580 • (970) 221-6775 • FAX (970) 221-6707 Scope of ,Services The Request for Proposals identifies six key modeling areas in which our team may assist NFRTAQPC in developing the regional MPO model While the task scoping in these six areas has not formally been identified at this time, Kimley-Horn has prepared the following approaches to developing these six areas A Evaluate Worlx Done to Date Kimley-Horn has worked with the MPO over the past few months to initially evaluate where the regional model is in its translation from MinUTP to TransCAD. Our preliminary evaluation has been that while the model data has been successfully translated and conflated to actually match map lines, work still needs to be done to cahorate the models (trip generation, trip distribution, mode split, and trip assignment) and validate the results to a base year We also noted that some modeling advantages in the TransCAD software were not being used in the present lob stream and that these advantages may improve model results Based on this evaluation, we discussed with NFRTAQPC the options they may want to consider for implementing TransCAD While there are present day projects that a TransCAD model may benefit (e g , Mason Street Corridor Study in Fort Collins), it is our understanding that the MPO is primarily interested in readying the model to support development of NFRTAQPC's Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) Our approach to this area or the scope will be to briefly revisit our discussions and conclusions with the model stakeholders During this visit, we want to make mre this path is still desired by the MPO, and that there have been no significant events to change this direction We recommend this discussion take place during project initiation After we've had this discussion, we will work with NFRTAQPC to determine the remaining effort required to develop the MPO model in TransCAD. As this document is developed, we will want to focus our efforts on the following First, we will need to determine the remaining datasets that will need to be collected to properly calibrate the models and validate the results There are common "everyday" data available, such as traffic counts and land use /socio- economic information, that will need to be collected from either the MPO or current member jurisdictions and catalogued Some of this information was mentioned in the RFP, including the 1998 Mobility Report Card and information from the City of Fort Collins' modeling effort for the Mason Street Corridor As part of the study design, we will work with NFRTAQPC to identify those datasets, determine how the data should be obtained (i e , formats), and agree upon collection responsibilities. Next, we will need to tackle the unique model datasets and their treatment For example, trip generation and trip distribution models rely heavily upon Household Travel or Or gin -Destination surveys for their validation During our past conversatlons with the MFO, we discussed this survey in particular and noted its importance to this model —particularly for validating city -to -city travel between Greeley, Fort Collins, and Loveland The problem with these datasets is that they are difficult and often expensive to obtain; however, we believe there are several opportunities to consider here Through our discussions, we can devise the best plan for actually developing these datasets, borrowing from other models, or making data assumptions a Third, we believe it is necessary to discuss expectations for the motleys results Frankly, when consultants are involved in travel demand model development, the expectations about a model's performance are often a source of conflict with a client. Often these conrlicts are related to the expectations during the validation phase of model development and revolve around a particular link not producing "acceptable' simulated volumes when compared to the ground cow While models are not perfect predictors of human travel behavior, they can be developed to provide the MPO with a reliable tool for identifying transportation investments in the NFRTAQPC area Let's elimmare the potential for a conflict situation in the beginning by talking about expectations in the study design phase. ® Fourth, the study design should address how much effort should be spent in developing the model's four steps. Specifically, our concern is with the mode split task The existing travel demand model has this task; howevai, it may not be functioning effectively in the TransCAD environment If this is the case, it may be necessary to initially work around this step to keep the model on a prompt schedule for developing the work necessary to implement the LRTP ® And finally, we want to discuss the model development roles —for both MPO and consultant staff We consider this veryimportant—wewant NFRTAQPC involvement in all phases of model development At the conclusion of this protect, it will be the MPO staffs responsibility to continue modeling on protects other than the LRTP Truthfully, the only way NFRTAQPC staff can continue with the TransCAD is it they have a working knowledge of the model's development Thus, the study design must clearly identify the involvement that the MPO wants in this process Involvement can range from a "hands -off" approach in which everything is summarized at the model development's conclusion, to a process in which the MPO staff does the development effort and the consultant acts as a "coach" in the process, to somewhere in the middle The product of this effort will be a model development study design document that will guide the balance of the project After meeting with the model stakeholders, Kimley- Horn estimates the study design can be developed within the following two to three weeks B. Create Base Year Model The study design document developed upon project initiation will form the basis for Kimley-Horn's approach to creating the base year model for the NFRTAQPC region As the model is created, there are varying factors that will need to be addressed Incorporating additional TransCAD features that are not used in present job stream For example, the initial translation from MinUTP relies heavily upon that program's coding techniques These techniques typically generalize descriptions about the network to fit the model into the outdated DOS operating system. TransCAD, on the other hand, gives the modeler considerable flexibility in network coding that can improve the overall calibration and validation We recommend taking advantage of this flexibility and will advise the NFRTAQPC staff about the additional variables and attributes that may be introduced into a new job stream in TransCAD a Working with the MPO to establish a current Ongin-Destination Survey to help validate the model's trip generation, trip distribution, and mode split steps Conversations with NFRTAQPC staff have suggested that this survey is required for a successful validation of the TransCAD model We have made some initial recommendations to the MPO about how this survey could be economically completed with assistance from Kimley-Horn, These recommendations mclude assisting with developing the survey instrument, using fraternal organizations (e g., Kiwanis, Jaycees, Chamber of Commerce, etc ) as the subjects of the survey, working with MPO and student staff to reduce and geocode the data, and then developing the datasets for use in the TransCAD model. 4 Since our initial evaluation of the TransCAD model, the MPO staff has identified the need for time -of -day modeling to be incorporated into the job stream. This is to accommodate NFRTAQPC's need to post -process the results for air quality conformity analyses. We recommend a multi -faceted approach to developing this model First, we recommend using data from the aforementioned origin-