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HORSETOOTH WEST
SITE ACCESS STUDY
FORT COLLINS, COLORADO
AUGUST 1992
Prepared for:
Tri Trend Homes
1505 Timberline Road
Fort Collins, CO 80524
Prepared by:
MATTHEW J. DELICH, P.E.
3413 Banyan Avenue
Loveland, CO 80538
Phone: 303-669-2061
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Horsetooth West is a proposed commercial and residential
l development located near the intersection of Taft Hill Road and
Horsetooth Road. This traffic impact study involved the steps of
trip generation, trip distribution, trip assignment, capacity
analysis, traffic signal warrant analysis, signal progression
analysis, and accident analysis.
This study assessed the impacts of Horsetooth West on the
short range (1995) and long range (2010) street system in the
vicinity of the proposed development. As a result of this
analysis, the following is concluded:
} - The development
pm nt of Horsetooth West is feasible from a
traffic engineering standpoint. At full development as proposed,
approximately 6100 trip ends will be generated at this site daily.
- The Taft Hill/Horsetooth intersection currently operates
acceptably with signal control and the existing geometrics. The
Taft Hill/Bronson intersection operates acceptably considering the
recent delay criteria research.
- By 1995, given development of the residential portion of
Horsetooth West and an increase in background traffic, the
signalized intersection of Taft Hill/Horsetooth will operate
acceptably. The existing geometrics will be adequate at the Taft
Hill/Horsetooth intersection. The stop sign controlled
intersections will operate acceptably.
- By 2010, the Taft Hill/Horsetooth intersection will operate
acceptably in the morning and afternoon peak hours with a typical
four lane cross section with left -turn lanes on each leg. The stop
sign controlled intersections will operate acceptably.
- In the long range future (2010), the proposed stop sign
controlled right-in/right-out access to Taft Hill will operate
acceptably. A right -turn deceleration auxiliary lane is warranted.
This right -turn lane would remove vehicles from the through traffic
stream on Taft Hill, providing a safer condition. This right -turn
lane should be at least 240 feet long including taper and assuming
a 15 mph turn radius.
- With the recommended control and geometrics, the accident
rate should be at an acceptable level for typical urban conditions.
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I. INTRODUCTION
This traffic impact study addresses the capacity, geometric,
and control requirements at and near a proposed development known
hereinafter as Horsetooth West. It is located near the
intersection of Taft Hill Road and Horsetooth Road in Fort Collins,
Colorado.
During the course of the analysis, numerous contacts were made
with the project planning consultant (Gefroh Hattman, Inc.), the
project engineering consultant (Stewart & Associates), and the Fort
Collins Traffic Engineering Department. This study generally
conforms to the format set forth in typical traffic impact study
l guidelines. The study involved the following steps:
- Collect physical traffic and development data;
- Perform trip generation, trip distribution, and trip
assignment;
- Determine peak hour traffic volumes and daily traffic volumes;
- Conduct capacity and operational level of service analyses on
key intersections;
- Analyze signal warrants and signal progression;
- Analyze potential changes in accidents and safety
considerations.
II. EXISTING CONDITIONS
The location of Horsetooth West is shown in Figure 1. It is
important that a thorough understanding of the existing conditions
be presented.
Land Use
Land uses in the area are primarily vacant or residential.
Residential development exists to the east, across Taft Hill Road,
and to the south of Horsetooth West. A small parcel of vacant land
exists to the southeast across the Taft Hill/Horsetooth
intersection. To the west of the site, land is vacant. Land to
the north of this site is large lot residential. Land in the area
is essentially flat. Beginning at approximately Horsetooth Road,
Taft Hill Road climbs a small grade to the south. This small grade
has little effect on traffic operations and no effect on sight
distance. The center of Fort Collins lies to: the northeast of
Horsetooth West.
Roads
The primary streets near Horsetooth West are shown in Figure
2. Taft Hill Road is east of Horsetooth West. It is a north -south
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SITE LOCATION Figure 1
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Ir.
SITE
Leo —1
BRONSON
w SITE
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Existing 0
Olander School N
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SITE Q HORSETOOTH
ROAD
PRIMARY STREETS Figure 2
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street designated as an arterial on the Fort Collins Master Street
Plan. In this area, it has a two lane cross section, with right -
and -left -turn lanes at the Taft Hill/Horsetooth intersection. The
curb locations are established for an eventual four lane urban
cross section adjacent to the site. The posted speed limit is 35
mph. Sight distance is generally not a problem along Taft Hill
Road. The Taft Hill/Horsetooth intersection is signalized. The
nearest other signal along Taft Hill Road is at Drake to the north.
No signals exist south of this site.
Horsetooth Road is south of this site. It is an east -west
street designated as an arterial on the Fort Collins Master Street
Plan. Adjacent to the site, Horsetooth Road is improved to its
future four lane width, but it is striped as a two lane street both
east and west of Taft Hill Road. The excess width is used for
turning lanes approaching the Taft Hill/Horsetooth intersection.
Horsetooth Road is posted at 35 mph. The nearest signalized
intersection along Horsetooth Road is at Shields Street to the
east. No signals exist west of this site.
Existing Traffic
Peak hour traffic is shown in Figure 3. These counts were
obtained in July 1992. Due to the time of year, Olander Elementary
School trips are not included in these counts. Olander School
trips were added to the system as part of the traffic assignment
process shown later in this report. Raw traffic count data is
provided in Appendix A.
Existing Operation
The Taft Hill/Horsetooth and Taft Hill/Bronson intersections
were evaluated regarding operational efficiency. The Taft Hill/
Horsetooth intersection was evaluated using the existing signal
control with existing geometrics and the volumes shown in Figure
3. The peak hour operation is shown in Table 1. Calculation forms
are provided in Appendix B. Appendix C describes level of service
for signalized and unsignalized intersections from the 1985 Highway
Capacity Manual (1985 HCM). Operation at this intersection is
acceptable during the peak hours. Acceptable operation is defined
as level of service D or better.
At the Taft Hill/Bronson intersection, operation is acceptable
except for left -turn exits from Bronson during the afternoon peak
hour. According to the unsignalized intersection technique from
the 1985 HCM, the level of service for the left -turn exits in the
afternoon peak hour is in category E. Based upon recent research,
contained in Appendix D, the delay is estimated at 14-24 seconds
per approach vehicle.. This delay is more appropriately defined as
level of service C/D. Table 1 also shows the level of service for
2
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T \
—13/8
3/2
BRONSON
t- e')
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C'7
N
M
�—
58/251
— 28/95
f- 89/ 182 HORSETOOTH
51/43
65/43 —s
6 / 7
\ ti M
Ln T
\
ti M
T
M r-
AM / PM
1992 PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC Figure 3
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Table 1
1992 Peak Hour Operation
11
Intersection
Horsetooth/Taft Hill (signal)
Taft Hill/Bronson (stop sign)
WB LT
WB RT
SB LT
Level of Service
AM PM
B B
D (A/B)* E (C/D)*
A B
A A
( ) Level of service considering recent research related vehicle
delay.
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these left turns based upon this research. This type of operation
is typical where minor streets intersect with arterials. It is
considered to be acceptable as long as alternative means of access
{ are provided in the same general area. The Rossborough area has
1 numerous alternative means of both ingress and egress.
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III. PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT
,A Horsetooth West is a proposed commercial/residential
+ development located near the intersection of Taft Hill Road and
Horsetooth Road in Fort Collins. Olander Elementary School was a
part of the previous Horsetooth West Overall Development Plan.
This school has been built and is in operation. Figure 4 shows a
schematic of the site plan of the Horsetooth West Overall
Development Plan, indicating location of the uses shown in Table
2, Trip Generation. The short range analysis (1995) included the
l_ existing school and the residential portions of the overall
development plan. The long range analysis (2010) included full
build out of the Horsetooth West Overall Development Plan and an
increase in background traffic in general accordance with the
"North Front Range Corridor Study."
Trip Generation
Trip generation is important in considering the impact of a
development such as this upon the existing and proposed street
system. Trip Generation, 4th Edition, ITE was used to project
trips that would be generated by the proposed uses at this site.
Table 2 shows the expected trip generation on a daily and peak hour
basis. No adjustments were made for transit or ridesharing.
Therefore, the trip generation can be considered conservatively
high.
Trip Distribution
A number of directional distributions of the generated trips
were determined for Horsetooth West. The trip distributions are
shown in Figure 5.
Traffic Projections
Traffic projections for the short range time period (1995)
were obtained by factoring the existing traffic by 102 percent per
year. A school trip assignment was also performed since the
existing traffic was counted in the summer.
The long range projections (2010) used daily traffic obtained
from the North Front Range Transportation Planning Process. These
3
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TAFT HILL ROAD
No
-- � Right -in /Right -out
Scale -- - - I
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t II
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Olander School G
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SITE PLAN
Figure 4
Table 2
Trip Generation
Daily
A.M.
Peak
P.M.
Peak
Land Use
Trips
Trips
Trips
Trips
Trips
in
out
in
out
PARCEL A
43 S.F. D.U.
430
9
24
27
16
PARCEL B
78 S.F. D.U.
780
16
43
23
29
PARCEL D
61 S.F D.U. &
710
14
41
45
26
16 M.F. D.U.
PARCEL E
C-store/gas
2000
54
54
63
63
Day Care
420
38
34
37
40
Retail
610
5
2
31
29
Office
230
24
4
5
20
PARCEL F
Elementary School
590
63
42
6
8
PARCEL G
58 M.F. D.U.
350
6
25
27
12
TOTAL
6120
229
269
264
243
Q .Q.
N N
55%
HORSETOOTH
ae
RESIDENTIAL TRIPS
Q
N
J
5% 10%
HORSETOOTH
Lola°
CONVENIENCE STORE
75% Passby
to 121
a0
10%
HORSETOOTH
L Lo
ol
ae
SCHOOL TRIPS
"AM
N
2
J
10 %/5%
ae
_
N
LL
Q
SITE
30%/5%
25%/40%
HORSETOOTH
a�
Lo
Lo
a°
a'
o
to
RETAIL -DAY CARE / OFFICE
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Figure 5
C
daily volumes were factored to obtain the expected peak hour
traffic.
Trip Assignment
Trip assignment is how the generated and distributed trips are
expected to be loaded on the street system. The assigned trips are
the resultant of the trip distribution process. Figure 6 shows the
short range morning peak hour assignment and the afternoon peak
�.., hour assignment of the residential portion of the Horsetooth West
generated traffic plus background traffic. Figure 7 shows the long
range peak hour assignment of full development of Horsetooth West
with the background traffic.
Signal Warrants
As a matter of policy, traffic signals are not installed at
any location unless warrants are met according to the Manual on
Uniform Traffic Control Devices. Using the traffic forecasts shown
in Figures 6 and 7, it is not likely that a signal will be
warranted at any of the key intersections near Horsetooth West.
Signal Progression
Signal progression was not evaluated since no new signals are
anticipated in this area.
Operations Analysis
Capacity analyses were performed on key intersections adjacent
to Horsetooth West. Using the traffic volumes shown in Figure 6
and the existing geometries, the intersections operate in the short
range condition as indicated in Table 3. Calculation forms for
these analyses are provided in Appendix E. The Taft Hill/
Horsetooth signalized intersection operates acceptably. The Taft
Hill/Bronson stop sign controlled intersection operates acceptably
considering the vehicle delay research cited earlier. The two stop
sign controlled intersections along Horsetooth Road operate
acceptably.
Using the traffic volumes shown in Figure 7, the intersections
operate in the long range future as indicated in Table 4.
Calculation forms for these analyses are provided in Appendix F.
It is expected that by this future date (2010), Horsetooth West
will be at full development. It is assumed that both Taft Hill
Road and Horsetooth Road will have four lane urban cross sections
with auxiliary lanes at appropriate locations. It is also assumed
that Horsetooth Road will connect to Overland Trail to the west of
4
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�— NOM
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✓— 3/2
19/12
NOM
32/21
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BRONSON
Z
00
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a
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co 0) N
— 77/296
P
18/29
37/135
5/13
54/165
HORSETOOTH) 1
00,/--23/81 ) �
-0— 78/245 l
j— 103/212
NOM ��
--Ile
105/75 —=
249NOM
128/78
I
NO M —�
O O 1 1/ 10
t- Lo
z z —
n T
T
cD
T ON
AM / PM
SHORT RANGE PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC Figure 6
Q
N
111
0--
Lo O O
-- c*) N
� 15/10
M0,—
W r Lo
4 5/10
5/5
,/—
35/50 —� BRONSON
5 / 10 ---=
35/25 ---,\ w o u-)
LoLoLo
T
T �
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r-r-
W
L J
L J
N
Lo _
co O
co
o r LL
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v T LQ
r
25/30
W
Z
0
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'-
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N
N tb co
In O
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`� 20/25
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rn `ram° M
�— 105/310
zz
do 245/355
(D
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�— 130/280
HORSETOOTH)
1
f-25/85
- 265/440
�— 140/285
10/ 15 —�
t 15/25
190/ 140
285/265 —}
1405/340
210/ 175 —�
5/10 —�
o O
70/90 —�
NN t- o
O
r r N
T In
z
(D
r
OO
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r'O N
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AM / PM
LONG RANGE PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC
Figure 7
r •
Intersection
Table 3
Short Range Peak Hour Operation
Horsetooth/Taft Hill (signal)
Taft Hill/Bronson (stop sign)
EB LT/T
EB RT
WB LT/T
WB RT
SB LT
NB LT
Horsetooth/Local Street (stop sign)
SB RT/LT
EB LT
Horsetooth/Auntie Store (stop sign)
NB LT/T
NB RT
SB LT/T
SB RT
EB LT
WB LT
Level of Service
AM PM
B C
D (C/D)*
B
D (C/D)*
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
E (C/D)*
B
E (C/D)*
C
B
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
( )* Level of service considering recent research related vehicle
delay.
Table 4
Long Range Peak Hour Operation
Level of
Service
Intersection
AM
PM
Horsetooth/Taft Hill (signal)
C
D
Taft Hill/Bronson (stop sign)
EB LT/T
E (D)*
F (D)*
EB RT
A
A
WB LT/T
E (C/D)*
E (D)*
WB RT
A
B
SB LT
B
D
NB LT
C
D
Horsetooth/Local Street (stop
sign)
SB RT/LT
C
C
EB LT
A
A
Horsetooth/Auntie Store (stop
sign)
NB LT/T
B
C
NB RT
A
A
SB LT/T
C
D
SB RT
A
A
EB LT
A
A
WB LT
A
A
Taft Hill/right-in/right-out
(stop sign)
EB RT
A
A
( )* Level of service considering recent research related vehicle
delay.
Horsetooth West. The exact location of that intersection and the
future alignment of Overland Trail will be the subject of future
planning and engineering studies by the City'of Fort Collins. The
Taft Hill/Horsetooth signalized intersection is expected to operate
acceptably. It is expected that the only auxiliary lanes necessary
will be the left -turn lanes on each leg. The Taft Hill/Bronson
stop sign controlled intersection will operate acceptably
considering the vehicle delay research cited earlier. Minor street
left turns and throughs will find that the delay, particularly
during the peak hours, will increase. However, signals are not
warranted at this intersection. The movements which will
experience this delay do have convenient, alternative routes
through signalized intersections. Even if all the minor street
left turns and throughs use the Taft Hill/Horsetooth intersection,
\ it will continue to operate acceptably. The stop sign controlled
intersections along Horsetooth Road are expected to operate
acceptably.
At this level of development, the overall development plan
shows a right-in/right-out access approximately 300 feet north of
Horsetooth Road along Taft Hill Road. At the right-in/right-out
driveway access and Taft Hill intersection, the right -turn
entrances warrant an exclusive right -turn lane. According to
Section 1.02.08 of Design Criteria and Standards for Streets, City
of Fort Collins, 1986, this right -turn lane and taper should be 500
feet at a 50 mph design speed. This would require a right -turn
lane extending from the driveway through the Taft Hill/Bronson
intersection. The posted speed on Taft Hill Road is 35 mph. The
distance from the right-in/right-out access to Bronson is just over
300 feet. If the access were designed to accommodate a 15 mph
turn, then the deceleration lane length at 35 mph is 240 feet (from
"Intersection Channelization Design Guide," NCHRPR 279, TRB, 1985,
Pg. 65). This will comfortably fit into the available separation
between the access and Bronson. It is recommended that this
criteria 'be used in designing this access. A right -turn
acceleration lane is not recommended at this access. Exiting
vehicles should be stopped and required to wait for an acceptable
gap in the southbound traffic on Taft Hill Road. There is already
a median on Taft Hill Road so further channelization is not
necessary.
Typically, the City of Fort Collins requires a "with/without"
analysis to justify a right-in/right-out on an arterial. This
analysis evaluates how other key intersections will operate with
and without the proposed access. A cursory analysis indicates that
this access will have little impact on adjacent intersections. The
access is more one of convenience for the future commercial parcel.
A properly designed right-in/right-out access will not negatively
impact the operation of the through lanes on Taft Hill Road. It
is, therefore, recommended that the City consider allowing the
right-in/right-out access.
5
r.
IAccident Analysis
.The recommended control devices and geometrics should minimize
vehicular conflicts and maximize vehicle separation. Therefore,
the accident rate should be at its minimum for a typical urban
condition.
IV. CONCLUSIONS
This study assessed the impacts of Horsetooth West on the
short range (1995) and long range (2010) street system in the
vicinity of the proposed development. As a result of this
analysis, the following is concluded:
- The development of Horsetooth West is feasible from a
traffic engineering standpoint. At full development as proposed,
approximately 6100 trip ends will be generated at this site daily.
- The Taft Hill/Horsetooth intersection currently operates
acceptably with signal control and the existing geometrics. The
Taft Hill/Bronson intersection operates acceptably considering the
recent delay criteria research.
- By 1995, given development of the residential portion of
Horsetooth West and an increase in background traffic, the
signalized intersection of Taft Hill/Horsetooth will operate
acceptably. The existing geometrics will be adequate at the Taft
Hill/Horsetooth intersection. The stop sign controlled
intersections will operate acceptably.
- By 2010, the Taft Hill/Horsetooth intersection will operate
acceptably in the morning and afternoon peak hours with a typical
four lane cross section with left -turn lanes on each leg. The stop
sign controlled intersections will operate acceptably.
- In the long range future (2010), the proposed stop sign
controlled right-in/right-out access to Taft Hill will operate
acceptably. A right -turn deceleration auxiliary lane is warranted.
This right -turn lane would remove vehicles from the through traffic
stream on Taft Hill, providing a safer condition. This right -turn
lane should be at least 240 feet long including taper and assuming
a 15 mph turn radius.
- With the recommended control and geometrics, the accident
rate should be at an acceptable level for typical urban conditions.
[.1
APPENDIX A
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APPENDIX C
LEVEL -OF -SERVICE CRITERIA
SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS
Level -of -service for signalized intersections is defined in terms of delay.
Delay is a measure of driver discomfort, frustration, fuel consumption, and lost
travel time. Specifically, level -of -service criteria are stated In terms of the
average stopped delay per vehicle for a 15-minul.e analysis period.
Level -of -service A describes operations with very low delay, i.e., lees than 5.0
seconds per vehicle.
Level -of -service B describes operations with delay in the range of 5.1 to 15.0
seconds per vehicle.
Level -of -service C describes operations with delay in the range of 15.1 to 25.0
seconds per vehicle.
Level -of -service D describes operations with delay in the range of 25.1 to 40.0
seconds per vehicle.
Level -of -service E describes operations with delay In the range of 40.1 to 60.0
seconds per vehicle. This is considered to be the limit: of accept.uble delay.
Level -of -service F describes operations with delay in excess of 60.0 seconds per
vehicle. This is considered to be unacceptable to most drivers.
RESERVE CAPACITY
UNSIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS
LEVEL OF
SERVICE
EXPEC1Fl) DELAY TO
MINOR S I ItEE T THAFF 1C
400 A Little or no delay
300-399 B Short truffic delays
200-299 C Average truffle delays
100-199 D Long Iruff Io delays
O- 99 E Very lung traffic delays
* F
*When demand volume exceeds the capooity of the lane, extreme delays will be
encountered with queuing which may cause severe congestion affout.ing other
traffic movements in the intersection. Tills oondition usually warrants
improvement to the intersection.
r,
C
r
APPENDIX D
I I
I I
BOISE, IDAHO JULY 15-18, 1990
Compendium of
Technical Papers
Institute Of Transportation Engineers
43rd Annual Meeting
Boise, Idaho
July 15-18, 1990
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A HFT11ODOLOGY FOR USING DELAY STUDY DAIA
TO ESTIMATE T11E EXISTING AND FUTURE LEVEL OF SERVICE
10 AT UNSIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS
9
By Marni lleffron (A )a and Georgy Bezkorovainy (M)b
s
INTRODUCTION
fa: lie level of service at unsignalized intersections is
often overstated by the 1985 111ghway Capacity
Manual (11CM) methodology. The HCM analysis for
,;n,ignalized
intersections may show a LOS E or LOS F
)peration with lengthy delays and, presumably, long
lueues. However, from field observation, the
intersection functions relatively well with short
queues and minor delays on the approaches controlled
)y STOP signs and no delays to mainline traffic. Many
reviewing agencies require the use of the HCM
.methodology to determine level of service. However,
11CM states that "because the methodologies [for
calculating unsignalized level of service[ result in a
lualitative evaluation of delay, it is also
recommended, if possible, that some delay data be
collected. This will allow for a better
quantification and description of existing operating
:onditions at the location under study." HCM does
got, however, include a methodology to relate delay
study results for an unsignalized intersection with a
level of service designation.
ICH defines the level of service of an unsignalized
intersection using "reserve capacity", an
analytically -defined variable that is not easily
field -verified. The procedure is based on the German
method of capacity determination at rural
intersections. This method has not been extensively
validated or calibrated for U.S. conditions, nor does
it estimate delay in quantitative terms.li
Ihis paper presents a methodology to use delay study
data to determine the existing level of service and to
estimate future operating conditions at unsignalized
intersections. In developing the methodology, delay
studies :ere performed at more than 50 unsignalized
T-intersections in eastern and central Massachusetts.
Minor approaches of these intersections were
controlled by stop signs, yield signs and uncontrolled
(implied yield). The results of these delay studies
will also be compared to the delay calculated using
the HCK unsignalized intersection analysis.
This paper relies on the existing ITCH methodology as
the basis to estimate existing and future level of
service from delay data. Until changes are made in
the HCH procedure, the existing 11CM methodology for
unsignalized intersections will continue to be
modified to yield results that better approximate
existing and future conditions.
a Transportation Engineer
Bruce Campbell 6 Associates, Boston MA
b Vice President
Bruce Campbell 6 Associates, Boston HA
UNSIGNALIZED INTERSECTION DELAY
Delay was adopted as a measure of effectiveness for
signalized intersections in the 1985 11CM for many
reasons; two reasons are that the concept of delay is
understood by the user community and delay can be
measured in the field.3 The application of delay
for unsignalized intersections should follow this same
reasoning. The.,,reserve capnctty is related to
average vehicle delay using the following equation
from the ITE Ilandbook2:
d _ 1 (1)
(a - b)
d — average delay
a — service rate
b — side -street arrival rate
Recognizing that capacity is the service rate and
volume is the arrival rate at an unsignalized
intersection, this formula shows that the average
vehicle delay is the reciprocal of reserve capacity.
Tile average seconds of delay per vehicle is calculated
using the following equation:
Average Delay (sec/veh) . 3600 (sec/hr) (2)
Reserve Capacity (veh/hr)
Table 1 shows the level of service designations which
correspond to reserve capacity and average vehicle
delay. Because the average delay per vehicle
approaches infinity as the reserve cnpacity goes to
zero, LOS F will be defined by any delay over 60
seconds. The average delay values for unsignalized
intersections shown in Table 1 are very similar to the
delay values used to define the level of service of
signalized intersections. Table 1 is taken from Table
10-3 in the HCM.
Table 1
Level -of -Service Criteria
For Unsignalized Intersections
Average **
Level of Reserve Capacity Stopped Delay
Service (Pass. Cars Per Hour) (sec/veh)
A > 400 < 9.0
B 300 - 399 9.1 to 12.0
C 200 - 299 12.1 to 19.0
-D 100 - 199 18.1 to 36.0
E 0 - 99 36.1 to 60.0
F * > 60.0
* Demand exceeds capacity; extreme delays will be
encountered
** Calculated from Equation (2)
—1—
I
r}! H,A,URFD DELAY VS. CALCULATED DE)AY-
Delay studies at unsignalized intersections are
relatively easy' to perform and can be performed in
conjunction with a turning movement count at low
-volume intersections. The observer measures the time
between when a vehicle stops for a stop sign or
conflicting traffic and pulls onto the major street.
The measurement includes the time waiting in queue.
The stopped delay is measured for random vehicles
turning left or right from the minor street or turning
left from the major street. The average delay during
the peak hour is calculated using a modified
signalized intersection delay equation:
` Average Delay (sec/veh) . Total Delay (sec) (3)
Number of Observations
For locations with a shared lane for left and right
turns on the minor street, the stopped delay for each
movement should be kept separate if future conditions
will be projected from the data since the level of
service of each movement is calculated separately and
then combined as a shared lane movement. Special
consideration, discussed later, should be given to
shared lane approaches where the right turn delay will
be increased by a high left turn volume. The existing
level of service for the shared lane is the weighted
average of the combined movements.
Bruce Campbell & Associates performed delay studies at
more than 50 unsignalized intersections in eastern and
central Massachusetts. For all study locations, a
traffic count was also performed, and the level of
service was calculated using the IICM methodology. To
date, only a few delay studies have been performed at
4-legged intersections, so only the data for
T-intersections are included in this paper. The
average delay per vehicle was calculated using
equation (3). Figures 1 through 3 compare the results
of the measured delay and the calculated delay. The
curves are from regression equations relating
conflicting flow and average delay. At this point
there have been no attempts to correlate the delay
data to another variable such as speed, movement
demand or type of control.
For all three critical movements at an unsignalized
intersection --the left turn from the minor street,
right turn from the minor street and left turn from
the major street --the measured delay was found to be
shorter than the calculated delay. These data suggest
that drivers are selecting smaller gaps than those
recommended in the 1985 IICM. Using the methodology
described below to back -calculate to the critical gap,
it was found that at over 80 percent of the locations,
the critical gap for both the minor left and right
turn movements was less than 6.0 seconds.
It was originally suspected that the smaller gap size
determined for the study locations would result in
higher accidents rates at these locations. however,
most of the intersections studied had accident rates
less than 0.5 Acc/Million Entering Vehicles, and none
had accident rates over 2.0 Acc/MEV. In
Massachusetts, intersections with an accident rate of
less than 2.0 are not considered high accident
Locations.
0
loo
so
so
To
so
so
4e
30
20
,o
FIGURE I
CONFLICIIIJG FLOW VS. AVERAGE OF -LAY
IFF 1 11 RN Fof 1M MAK)R CIRtFI
o.s os ,
IThousonds)
CCNTUCIING FLOW
. FIGURE 2
CONFLICTING FLOW VS. AVERAF DELAY
LEF FF I URN I RUM MINOR 51 REE 1
_ I tll
— MEASURED
1.2 1.4 1.6 1.e I
l Thwsonds I
CONFUCIING FLOW
. FIGURE 3
CONFLICTING FLOW VS. AVERAGE DELAY
RN; 5 IutN IROM MNVOR SIREE(
ML .0 RLD
e e.2 0.4 of e.e
l T homonds )
COW L1CING FLOW
_ 2
6.
i
Intersections with a shared lane on the minor approach
provided conflicting results for the left and right
turn movements. In many cases, the critical gap
determined from'the delay data for the right turn was
higher than the gap determined for the minor left
turn. This phenomenon is most likely due to the time
a right turner spends waiting in queue behind a left
turner. Because of the queue, the measured delays for
e the two movements were not dramatically different.
` Since tite critical gap calculation relies on the
movement's conflicting flow, the right turn gap
F" calculates to a higher value than the left turn gap.
Generally, the minor left turn is the most critical
l movement at an intersection, and the delay data for
the left turn is not significantly affected by a
6' shared lane. In retrospect, if delay data
measurements did not include stopped delays in a
queue, then the calculated gaps would be higher for
left turns than right turns in all instances.
However, not recording delays in a queue would give an
unfair representation of existing field conditions.
To further illustrate tite shared lane phenomenon
affecting right -turning vehicles, the results in
Figures 1 and 2 show a large disparity between the
calculated delays vs. measured delays. However, in
the case of right -turning vehicles, the measured
delays were only 2-3 seconds less than the calculated
delays. The presence of left -turning vehicles in the
shared lane had, most likely, a significant impact on
the delay values recorded for right -turning vehicles.
Further research on shared -lane approaches is needed.
ESTIMATING FUTURE LEVEL OF SERVICE
Tile following procedure is suggested to estimate
future level of service from existing delay data. It
relies on the existing HCM methodology, and basically
back -calculates from delay to capacity to determine
the gap being accepted by drivers. Once the gap is
determined, the future capacity and level of service
can be estimated using the same gap.
The capacity for an unsignalized intersection movement
can be determined from delay by rearranging equation
(2) as follows:
Capacity (veh/hr) * 3600 (sec/hr) . Side Street Demand (4)
Average Delay (sec/veh)
The HCM equations relate critical gap to "potential
capacity." The potential capacity for the left turn
from the major street and right turn from the minor
street are the same as capacity, but the capacity of
the minor left turn needs to be converted to potential
capacity discounting the impedance factor of the major
left turn. The impedance factor is determined using
the following equation4 (tile variable names
correspond to the variables in 11CM):
V 1.2052 (5)
I — 1 - 0.0038 100 x 4
Cp4
I — Impedance Factor
V4 — Left turn volume from major street
Cp4 — Capacity of left turn from major street
The potential capacity of the minor left turn is then
calculated using:
Cm7 (6)
CP7 I
C 7 — Potential capacity of the minor left turn
Gal — Actual capacity of the minor left turn
(determined from delay data)
Using Figure 10-3 in the 1985 HCM, the critical gap
can be estimated from the potential capacity and
conflicting flow. Alternatively, the equations in
Karsten G. Banss' article "Tile Potential Capacity of
Unsignalized Intersections" (ITE Journal, October
1987, pp. 43-46.) can be used to determine the gap.
The estimated critical gap may be lower than 4.0
seconds for low volume locations, but it is
recommended that 4.0 be the minimum gap used. HCM's
Figure 10-3 also `shows the minimum critical gap to be
4.0 seconds.
Once the critical gap is estimated from the delay
data, the future level of service at n location is
determined using the standard HCM methodology. This
methodology is not recommended for intersections with
high accident experience, or where vehicles on the
side street are forcing a gap in the major street
traffic stream. The following is an example of this
methodology's application:
EXAMPLE:
A delay study and turning movement count were
performed at the T-intersection of Lincoln Avenue and
Bristow Street in Saugus, Massachusetts. The I'M peak
hour turning movement volumes and vehicle delays are
summarized below:
Average
Peak Hour Conflicting Delay per Max Imum Sample
Movement Volume FloVehicle Delay Size
Minor Left 10T 1227 13.7 64 92
Mfnor Right 33 653 5.4 28 31
Major Left 36 653 3.8 14 15
According to the IICM methodology, the left turn from
Bristow Street to Lincoln Avenue operates at LOS F.
Tile delay study data, however, show that the left turn
operates at LOS C.
The capacity of each movement is calculated using
equation (4).
Movement Demand Capacity
Minor Left 107 vph 370 vph
Minor Right 33 700
Major Left 36 983
The potential capacity of the minor left turn is
calculated using the impedance factor from equation
(5). The impedance factor is determined from the
demand and capacity of the major left turn,
I — 1 0.0038(100 x_36)1.2052 _ 0.98
983
and potential capacity, Cp7 — 370 — 378 vph
0.98
—3—
Ir
The conflicting flow of the minor left turn — 1227
vph. Using Figure 10-3 in the IICM, a critical gap of
{
approximately 4.5 seconds is located for a potential
capacity of 378 and a conflicting flow of 1227. These
FIGURE 4
steps are illustrated in the flow chart in Figure 4.
ESTIMATING FUTURE LOS
FLOW CHART
Under the future conditions, the conflicting flow is
estimated to increase to 1400 vph, and the minor left
turn demand will increase to 110 vph. The future
Existing
Future
potential capacity located on Figure 10-3 is 300 vph
Conditions
CondLtiona
tI for a gap of 4.5 seconds and conflicting flow of 1400
1,
vph.
The actual capacity accounts for the impedance factor
Measure
Future LOS
(for this example the impedance factor is assumed to
LLL
Delays
Table 1
be 0.98)
Cm7 — 300 x 0.98 — 29/4 vpli
•
Avg. Defy
Avg. Delay
The reserve capacity — 294 - 170 — 124 vph,
per Vehicle
Per Vehicle
Equation (3)
Equation (2)
and the average delay is calculated using equation (2),
Delay - 1200 — 29.0 sec.
Capacity of
Reserve Cap.
The level of service for the future conditions will be
Movement
Subtract
LOS D.
Equation (4)
Demand
CONCLUSION
The methodology presented in this paper provides one
way to quantify the operation of an unsignalized inter-
Impedance
section when the NCM methodology does not correlateFactor
[Actual
apacity
with field observations. Future operating conditionsEquation
(5)
quation (6)
can also be defined on the basis of existing
conditions delay data. The delay methodology should
not be used for intersections with high accident
{ experience or where vehicles on the side street are
forcing a gap in the major street traffic stream.
Potential
oential
Further research is needed for intersections with a
Capacity
pcity from
[.,ta
shared lane on the minor approach since the right turn
Equation (6)
Ci Fig. 10-3
delay is affected by the left turn movement. Data
collected for the left turn movement on a shared lane
approach should not be significantly affected.
Delay is a measure of effectiveness that should be
Critical Gap
Assume Same
applied to unsignalized intersections because it is
NCM Fig.
Critical Gap
easily measured end also easily understood_ Future
10-3
for Future
revisions of the IICM methodology should include
delay.
REFERENCES
1. Transportation Research Board, National Research
Council. "Research Problem Statements: Highway
Capacity", Transporation Research Circular Number
319. Washington D.C., June 1987, page 27.
2. Institute of Transporation Engineers.
Transporation and Traffic Engineering Handbook. 4. Baass, Karsten G. "The Potential Capacity of
Prentiss Hall Inc.; 1982, pp. 499-536. Unsignalized Intersections", ITE Journal, October,
1987, pp. 43-46.
3. Roess, Roger P. and McShane, William R. "Changing
Concepts of Level of Service in the 1985 Highway5. Transportation Research Board, National Research
Capacity Manual: Some Examples," ITE Journal, May Council. Highway Capacjty Manual, Special Report
1987, pp 27 31 209. Washington D.C., 1985.
—4—
0
APPENDIX E
P
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