HomeMy WebLinkAboutPROSPECT PARK PUD - PRELIMINARY - 21-95 - SUBMITTAL DOCUMENTS - ROUND 1 - TRAFFIC STUDYVII. CONCLUSIONS
This study assessed the impacts of constructing Prospect
Park, a multi -use commercial development at the intersection
of Prospect Road and Shields Street in Fort Collins,
Colorado. As a result of the analysis, the following
conclusions were drawn:
The potential impacts of the proposed project were evaluated
at the following three intersections: Prospect/Shields,
Shields/Stuart, Prospect/Stone Creek.
The traffic impact analyses were performed for the Years
1997 and 2010. Future background traffic conditions without
the project and total traffic conditions, with completion of
the proposed project, were evaluated.
Currently the intersection of Prospect/Shields is operating
at an unacceptable level of service during the evening peak
hour. For Year 1997 background traffic conditions,
Prospect/Shields would continue to operate at an
unacceptable level of service during the evening peak hour.
The results of the analyses indicate that for the short
term, Year 1997 conditions, after completion of the proposed
project, Prospect/Shields would continue to operate at a
poor level and the northbound traffic at Prospect/Stone
Creek would experience long delays.
The long term future traffic analyses indicate that for Year
2010, each of the study intersections would operate at
unacceptable levels of service.
Several improvements to the study intersections are
suggested to mitigate the impacts of future traffic growth.
If the intersection improvements are installed, each of the
study intersections would operate at an acceptable level of
service with the exception of Prospect/Shields during the
evening peak hour for Year 2010 without the Centre Avenue
extension and the northbound left -turn movement out of Stone
Creek at Prospect. However, long delays for left -turns out
of minor streets is typical of intersections of minor
streets with major roadways.
26
TABLE 5
INTERSECTION CAPACITY ANALYSIS SUMMARY
TOTAL TRAFFIC WITH IMPROVEMENTS
Prospect/Shields
(signalized)
Shields/Stuart
(signalized)
W/ SB RT
W/ SB RT + EB LT,T,RT
Prospect/Stone Creek
(stop -controlled)
NB LT
NB RT
WB LT
Peak Hour Level of Service
1997 2010 W/O 2010 W/
CENTRE CENTRE
AM PM AM PM AM PM
C D D E D D
F F F
A A A
D D D
D
C
E
C
D
F
F
F
A
A
A
D
D
D
25
Effect of Improvement Measures
The implementation of the intersection improvements would
improve the levels of service at the study intersections.
Table 5 shows the resulting levels of service with
implementation of the suggested improvements.
As indicated in Table 5, for the Year 1997 scenarios, the
intersection of Prospect/Shields and Shields/Stuart would
operate acceptable levels of service. Under the Year 2010
with the Centre Avenue extension, a Level of Service D is
expected to be maintained. However, at Prospect/Shields,
without the extension of Centre, the evening level of
service is expected to drop below an acceptable level of
service.
At the intersection of Prospect/Stone Creek, the widening of
Stone Creek would allow for the northbound right -turns to
operate at an acceptable level of service. However, the
northbound left -turns would continue to experience long
delays. As mentioned earlier.. this is typical of
intersections of minor streets/driveways with arterial
streets.
24
TABLE 4
INTERSECTION CAPACITY ANALYSIS SUMMARY
TOTAL TRAFFIC - YEAR 2010 WITHOUT AND WITH CENTRE
Peak Hour Level of Service
W/O Centre W/ Centre
AM PM AM PM
Prospect/Shields
(signalized) D F* D F*
Shields/Stuart
(signalized) C E C F
Prospect/Stone Creek
(stop -controlled)
NB LT/RT F F F F
WB LT D D D D
KEY: F* indicates that the volume to capacity ratio is
greater than 1.2 and therefore the overall delay and overall
level of service cannot be determined.
22
TABLE 3
INTERSECTION CAPACITY ANALYSIS SUMMARY
BACKGROUND AND TOTAL TRAFFIC - YEAR 1997
Peak Hour Level of Service
Background Total
AM PM AM PM
Prospect/Shields
(signalized) C E C E
Shields/Stuart
(signalized) B D C D
Prospect/Stone Creek
(stop -controlled)
NB LT/RT D D F F
WB LT C B D D
21
IVI. TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS
Operational Analysis
Traffic analyses were completed for background traffic
(without project) and total traffic (with project)
conditions. Table 3 indicates the levels of service for
each of the study intersections for Year 1997 background and
total traffic conditions. Table 4 provides the levels of
service for Year 2010 conditions without and with the
extension of Centre Avenue.
As indicated in Table 3 it is expected that the
intersections of Shields/Stuart and Prospect/Stone Creek
would continue to operate at an acceptable level of service,
for Year 1997 background traffic conditions. Acceptable
conditions is typically defined as a level of service D or
better (LOS A, B, C, or D). However, the intersection of
Prospect/Shields, during the evening peak hour is expected
to operate with long overall delays, a LOS E. It should be
noted that it was assumed that a dual eastbound left -turn
would be present at this location by 1997.
Table 3 also indicates that under total traffic conditions,
with the project, the intersection of Prospect/Shields will
continue to operate at LOS E. Additionally, the northbound
traffic movements from Stone Creek onto Prospect are
expected to operate at a poor level of service. However,
this is typical of intersections of minor streets/driveways
with arterial streets.
The traffic impact analyses results for Year 2010 total
traffic conditions, depicted in Table 4, indicate that each
of the study intersections are expected to experience long
delays with Levels of Service E or F.
20
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LEGEND:
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All Volumes Rounded to the Nearest
5 Vehicles
FIGURE 8
TOTAL PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES
YEAR 2010 WITH CENTER AVENUE
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LEGEND:
XXX (XXX) AM (PM) Peak Hour Traffic Volumes
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5 Vehicles
FIGURE 7
TOTAL PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES
YEAR 2010 WITHOUT CENTER AVENUE
of
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LEGEND:
XXX (XXX) AM (PM) Peak Hour Traffic Volumes
All Volumes Rounded to the Nearest
5 Vehicles
FIGURE 6
TOTAL PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES
YEAR 1997
17
V. FUTURE TOTAL TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS
The future total traffic projections reflect future traffic
conditions with the traffic from the proposed Prospect Park
project. The future total traffic projections were
developed for the following scenarios: Year 1997, Year 2010
without the extension of Centre Avenue, and Year 2010 with
the extension of Centre Avenue.
Total Traffic Year 1997
The site -generated traffic was combined with the background
traffic, shown earlier on Figure 3, to determine the total
. projected traffic in the study area. The total peak hour
traffic for Year 1997 is illustrated on Figure 6.
Total Traffic Year 2010 Without Centre
Currently Centre Avenue terminates south of Prospect Road.
However, as the Centre for Advanced Technology develops, it
is planned that Centre Avenue would extend south and west to
connect with Shields Street at Raintree. The future traffic
for year 2010 was first projected without this extension.
The total traffic for Year 2010 without Centre was developed
by: factoring existing traffic upward by 10 to 16 percent,
adding the traffic from nearby projects (discussed in
Chapter III), and adding the traffic from the proposed
project. The resulting peak hour total traffic projections
for Year 2010 without the Centre Avenue extension are shown
on Figure 7.
Total Traffic Year 2010 With Centre
The total traffic for Year 2010 with the future extension of
Centre Avenue were developed by: factoring existing traffic
upward by 10 to 16 percent, adding the traffic from nearby
projects (discussed in Chapter III), adding the traffic from
the proposed project, and modifying specific traffic
movements at the study intersections to reflect the
extension of Centre Avenue. The resulting peak hour total
traffic projections for Year 2010 with Centre Avenue are
depicted on Figure 8.
16
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STUART ST.
LEGEND:
XXX (XXX) AM (PM) Peak Hour Traffic Volumes
FIGURE 5
SITE —GENERATED PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES
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Traffic Assignment
Traffic assignment is how the generated and distributed
trips are expected to be loaded on the roadway network. The
site -generated trip assignments are shown on Figure 5.
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FIGURE 4
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
13
IV. PROJECT TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS
Trip Generation
Standard traffic generation characteristics compiled by the
Institute of Transportation Engineers in their report
entitled Trip Generation, revised 1991 and February 1995
update, were applied to the proposed land use in order to
estimate the daily, AM and PM peak hour vehicle trips for
the site. A vehicle trip is defined as a one-way vehicle
movement from a point of origin to a point of destination.
Table 2 illustrates the projected daily, AM and PM peak hour
traffic volumes generated by the proposed project. It was
assumed that the first story of the two story
medical/office/retail building would be retail and the
second floor medical related offices.
TABLE 2
TRIP GENERATION
ITE
Land Use Units Code ADT
Drug Store
15
KSF
815
856
office,
5.4
KSF
710
155
Drive -In Bank
7.2
KSF
912
1,910
PM Peak Hour AM Peak Hour
in out tot in out total
52 44 96 33 33 66
18 2 20 4 18 22
45 35 80 151 163 314
Med Office
14.85KSF 720 507
31
9
40
18
43
61
Retail
14.85KSF 814 604
46
49
95
42
31
73
TOTAL
41032
192
139
331
248
288
536
Trip Distribution
The overall directional distribution of the site -generated
traffic was determined based on the location of the site
within the City of Fort Collins. The trip distribution used
in the analysis of this report are shown on Figure 4.
12
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LEGEND:
XXX (XXX) AM (PM) Peak Hour Traffic Volumes
All Volumes Rounded to the Nearest
5 Vehicles
FIGURE 3
BACKGROUND PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES
YEAR 1997
11
and the Centre For Advanced Technology, Site Access Study,
prepared by Matt Delich, May 1994.
The Preserve is a residential development currently
being constructed to the west of Shields Street and north of
Drake Road. Traffic volume data for the Preserve was
obtained from the The Preserve, Site Access Study, prepared
by Matt Delich, March 1993.
The Fort Collins Senior Center is a recently completed
senior center located to the west of Shields Street and
north of Raintree Drive. Traffic volume data for the Senior
Center was obtained from the Fort Collins Senior Center,
Site Access Study, prepared by Matt Delich, October, 1992.
The Prospect II PUD is a residential development
located south of Prospect Road and west of Stone Creek,
adjacent to the proposed project. Traffic data for this
project was obtained from a memorandum from Matt Delich to
Rich Storck, April 5, 1994.
Background Traffic Year 1997
The peak hour background traffic for Year 1997 is depicted
on Figure 3. As mentioned above this was developed by
factoring existing traffic to account for overall growth in
the City of Fort Collins and adding the traffic from the
five nearby projects described above.
10
III. FUTURE BACKGROUND TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS
In order to properly evaluate the potential impact of the
proposed Prospect Park project on the local traffic
conditions, future traffic volumes were first estimated for
the study area without the project. These future forecasts
reflect the growth that is expected from other specific
developments in the vicinity of the project and increases
due to overall growth in Fort Collins. The future
background traffic projections were determined for the Year
1997. In Chapter V, the future total traffic projections
are presented for Year 1997 short term, Year 2010 long range
without the extension of Centre Avenue, and Year 2010 with
the extension of Centre Avenue.
The growth reflected in Year 1997 Background Traffic is
based on two factors: citywide growth and development, and
traffic generated by specific projects located within, or in
the vicinity of, the study area.
Areawide Traffic Growth
Based upon recent historical traffic data, it was determined
that traffic within the study area has increased at a rate
of approximately 1.5 percent per year when looking at the
short term future. Assuming a completion date in 1997, the
existing traffic volumes were adjusted upward by 3 percent
to reflect this citywide growth.
Traffic From Nearby Projects
City of Fort Collins staff provided a list of projects near
the project site which could be completed within the short
term. A description of each of these projects is described
below.
I Spring Creek Village PUD, is a proposed multi -use
development which would include: residential, supermarket,
retail and office uses. It would be located adjacent to
Shields Street at it's intersection with Stuart Street.
Traffic volume data related to this project was obtained
from a memorandum from Matt Delich_to Bill Albrecht, July
18, 1994.
r The Windtrail projects, are residential uses proposed
to the east of Shields Street and south of Spring Creek.
I Traffic data for these projects was obtained from a
memorandum from Matt Delich to John McCoy, December 6, 1993,
u
TABLE 1
INTERSECTION CAPACITY ANALYSIS SUMMARY
EXISTING CONDITIONS
Peak Hour
Level of Service
AM PM
Prospect/Shields
(signalized) D E
Shields/Stuart
(signalized)
Existing B
W/ NB LT B B
Prospect/Stone Creek
(stop -controlled)
NB LT/RT A B
WB LT B A
KEY: The * denotes the volume to capacity ratio exceeds 1.2
and therefore the overall intersection delay cannot be
determined.
8
Intersection Level of Service Methodology
Level of service (LOS) is a qualitative measure used to
describe the conditions of traffic flow, ranging from
excellent conditions at LOS A to overloaded conditions at
LOS F. Level of service definitions are provided in
Appendix A. The City of Fort Collins standard for minimum
acceptable LOS is D.
The Signalized and Unsignalized Intersection Analysis
techniques, as published in the Highway Capacity Manual by
the Transportation Research Board in 1985, were used to
analyze the study intersections for each of the traffic
scenarios. The capacity worksheets are provided in Appendix
B. These techniques allow for the determination of the
intersection level of service based on congestion and delay
of each traffic movement.
a
Existing Peak Hour Levels of Service
Table l summarizes the existing weekday morning and evening
peak hour level of service at each of the three study
intersections. Under actual, existing conditions, two of
the three intersections are operating at an unacceptable
level of service. As indicated in the table, during the
evening peak hour the intersection of Prospect/Shields
currently operates at Level of Service E. At the
intersection of Shields/Stuart, the evening peak hour volume
to capacity ratio is greater than 1.2 and therefore the
overall intersection level of service cannot be determined.
If a northbound left -turn phase were installed at this
location, the intersection would operate at LOS B. It was
assumed that this improvement would be in place for each of
the future traffic scenarios analyzed in the traffic study.
7
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LEGEND:
XXX (XXX) AM (PM) Peak Hour Traffic Volumes
FIGURE 2
EXISTING PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES
II. EXISTING CONDITIONS
A comprehensive data collection effort was undertaken to
develop a detailed description of the existing conditions on
and near the project site. The assessment of conditions
relevant to this study include land use, streets, traffic
volumes, and operating conditions on the street system.
Existing Street System
Prospect Road is an east/west arterial street. Prospect
Road is currently striped to accommodate four travel lanes,
two in each direction. There are bike lanes on both the
north and south side of Prospect Road. The speed limit is
currently posted at 35 mph. The intersection of Prospect
Road and Shields Street is signalized. The T-intersection
of Prospect Road and Stone Creek is stop -controlled, with
the stop on Stone Creek. The adjacent land use is
predominantly residential with one commercial use the
intersection of Prospect/Shields.
Shields Street is an north/south arterial street. Shields
Street is striped to accommodate four travel lanes. Bike
lanes are provided on both sides of Shields Street. The
speed limit is currently posted at 35 mph. The intersection
of Shields Street with Stuart Street is signalized. The
adjacent land use is residential and some vacant property.
Stone Creek is a north/south road which serves the Stone
Creek apartments and would provide access into the project
site. Currently this is an unmarked two lane road. The
land use adjacent to Stone Creek is residential and
undeveloped properties.
Stuart Street is a east/west collector road. Stuart Street
is striped to accommodate two travel lanes. Bike lanes are
provided on both sides of Stuart Street. The speed limit is
posted at 25 mph. The adjacent land use is predominantly
residential with some commercial at the intersection of
Stuart/Shields.
Existing Intersection Peak Hour Traffic Volumes
Morning and evening peak hour traffic counts were conducted
at each of the three study intersections during April, 1995.
The existing peak hour traffic volumes are depicted in
Figure 2.
5
Year 1997 Background Conditions - The objective of
this phase of the analysis is to project future
traffic growth and operating conditions which
could be expected to result from local growth and
from related projects in the vicinity of the
project site which are either under construction,
approved for development or under review. The
future base traffic conditions will be developed
for the short term Year 1997.
Years 1997 and 2010 Total Traffic (Plus Project) -
This is an analysis of future traffic conditions
with traffic expected to be generated by the
proposed project added to the base traffic
forecasts, in order to identify impacts of the
proposed project on future traffic operating
conditions. This analysis will include the Year
2010 both with and without the extension of Centre
Avenue.
The study area to be examined in this traffic impact
analysis encompasses the intersections of: Prospect Road at
Shields Street, Prospect Road at Stone Creek, and Shields
Street at Stuart Street.
Organization of Report
The remainder of this report is divided into seven parts.
Chapter II presents an analysis of the existing street
system and traffic conditions for each of the study
intersections. Forecasts of background traffic for Year
1997 are provided in Chapter III. Traffic projections for
the proposed project are discussed in Chapter IV. Chapter V
presents the total future traffic projections for Years 1997
and 2010. The future intersection operating conditions are
presented in Chapter VI. Chapter VII discusses any
roadway/intersection improvements as necessary and feasible.
Chapter VIII provides a summary of the study results.
4
H
FIGURE 1NJ
SITE LOCATION
Colorado
MULBERRY ST.
Project
State
Stite\y
University
PROSPECT RD.
STUART ST.
DRAKE RD.
HORSETOOTH RD.
HARMONY RD.
a
�
a
V
I. INTRODUCTION
This traffic impact study addresses the capacity, geometric,
and control requirements associated with the proposed
development of Prospect Park, a multi -use commercial
development, at Prospect Road and Shields Street in Fort
Collins, Colorado. The site location is shown in Figure 1.
Project Description
The site is located at the southwest corner of Prospect Road
and Shields Street. The land for this development is
currently vacant. The proposed project would include the
following land use elements: a 15,000-square-foot .
drugstore with a drive-in window, a 5,400-square-foot office
building, a 7,200-square-foot drive-in bank, and a 29,700-
square-foot building which could be used as medical office,
office, and/or retail. It is anticipated that the proposed
project would be completed in Year 1997.
The proposed site plan allows for three_ driveways to serve
the project. The access drive from Shields Street would be
restricted to right turns into and out of the site. Stone
Creek, an existing street boardering the western side of the
project site, would accommodate a full access drive allowing
for full traffic movements into and out of the site. The
access drive from Prospect Road would be limited to right
turns only.
Study Scope
The scope of this study was developed in conjunction with
the City of Fort Collins Transportation Department. The
base assumptions, technical methodologies and geographic
coverage of the study were all identified as part of the
study approach.
The study is directed at the analysis of future traffic
conditions after completion of the proposed project. As
directed by the City of Fort Collins, the following traffic
scenarios are analyzed in the study:
Existing Conditions - The analysis of existing
traffic conditions is intended to provide a basis -
for the remainder of the study. The existing
conditions analysis includes an assessment of
traffic volumes and operating conditions at the
study intersections.
PROSPECT PARK
PROSPECT/SHIELDS
Fort Collins, Colorado
Traffic Impact Study
April, 1995
Prepared for:
Mr. Ed Mullaney
C/O Cushman and Wakefield, Inc.
410 17th Street, Suite 200
Denver, Colorado 80202
Prepared by:
D. Ruth Clear, P.E.
430 E. Elizabeth Street
Fort Collins Colorado 80524
(970) 416-0410
513mul.wps
VII. INTERSECTION IMPROVEMENTS
The traffic analysis described previously was used to
identify those intersections which are projected to operate
at unacceptable levels of service. This chapter describes
measures to improve the study intersections operation.
Proposed Improvements
Although all potential measures were considered in the
development of improvements, the analysis concentrated on
those which could be implemented utilizing the following
criteria: improvements within the existing roadway section,
improvements to the existing signal operations, and
improvements requiring right-of-way acquisition.
Improvements requiring the removal of existing structures
were not considered feasible.
The intersection modifications proposed to improve the
overall intersection operations to acceptable levels of
service are described below.
Prospect/Shields - Revision to the site plan such that
the Shields Street access would allow for a northbound left -
turn into the project site. This improvement would
eliminate the need for the northbound traffic to utilize the
intersection of Prospect/Shields. However, this
recommendation.requires further evaluation to determine if
stacking of northbound left -turns at the access drive would
interfere with the stacking of southbound left -turns at
Prospect/Hobbit.
Prospect/Shields - Reconfigure the northbound approach
to the intersection to allow for dual northbound left -turn
lanes. This would require additional right-of-way from the
proposed project and right-of-way from the properties on the
west side of Shields Street, north of Prospect.
Shields/Stuart - Acquire additional right-of-way to
allow for an exclusive southbound right -turn lane.
Additionally, for Year 2010 without the extension of Centre
Avenue, the west leg of the intersection would require
widening to allow for an exclusive eastbound left -turn lane,
a through lane, and an exclusive right -turn lane.
Prospect/Stone Creek - Widen Stone Creek to allow for
an exclusive northbound left -turn lane and an exclusive
right -turn lane.
23
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