HomeMy WebLinkAboutGILLESPIE FARM - ODP - 29-00 - REPORTS - TRAFFIC STUDYIi
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VII. CONCLUSIONS
This study assessed the potential impacts of constructing the Gillespie Farm ODP, a residential project
located at the southeast corner of Larimer County Roads 11 and 52, in Fort Collins, Colorado. As a
result of the analysis, the following conclusions were drawn:
The potential impacts of the proposed project were evaluated at the following intersections: LCR
11 /LCR 52, LCR 11 /Country Club, LCR 11 /Mountain Vista, and Timberline/Mountain Vista.
The traffic impact analyses were performed for existing conditions and the future Years 2005 and
2020. Future background traffic conditions without the project and total traffic conditions, with
completion of the proposed project, were evaluated.
Under existing conditions each of the study intersections are currently operating at an acceptable level
of service.
For Year 2005 background and total traffic conditions, the study intersections are projected to operate
at acceptable levels of service.
Under long range future traffic conditions, represented by Year 2020, the study intersections are
projected to operate at acceptable levels of service. It was assumed that each of the study roadways
would be at their master planned design levels. Each of the study intersections were analyzed under
signalized conditions. Exclusive turn lanes are required at most of the study intersections.
Future pedestrian access within the proposed project should satisfy the City's minimum acceptable
standards. The pedestrian facilities within the existing residential areas west of the project site will not
meet the City's requirements. These ares were developed under rural County standards. There will
be bicycle facilities available directly adjacent to the project site which satisfies the City of Fort Collins
standards and a proposed Bikeway Trail which traverses the project site. There will be future transit
service to the Mountain Vista Subarea, however no direct transit service to the project site has been
planned.
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1 BICYCLE LEVEL OF SERVICE
There are bicycle facilities within the study area on Timberline and Mountain Vista Roads. The City of
Fort Collins, as stated in their Multimodal Level of Service Manual, requires that greater areas of Fort
Collins achieve a minimum level of service for bicycle facilities of C. As the Mountain Vista Subarea
is developed, the proposed project will achieve this goal with it's location directly adjacent to future
1 minor arterial streets which will include on -street bicycle lanes.
Within the study area there are also some priority destination areas of public school sites and recreation
' areas. The level of service goal is LOS A and B for these areas respectively. The location of the project
site allows for these goals to be met. It is anticipated that the LOS A standard applicable to bicycle
travel to the future high school site would be achieved due to the Bikeway Trail which is proposed for
the project site and connects directly to the high school site. The Bikeway Trail will also connect to
1 the recreation facilities within the Gillespie Farm ODP and future Park/Open Land proposed to the
southeast of the project site as determined in the Mountain Vista Subarea Framework Plan.
1 TRANSIT LEVEL OF SERVICE
1 The current transit level of service is determined based upon the following data related : hours of
weekday service, headways, a travel time factor of 2.0, and a peak load factor of less than 1.2. Based
upon the criteria set forth by the City of Fort Collins, the project site is located outside the area defined
as "mixed use centers and commercial corridors" which is defined as "remainder of service area".
Areas in the remainder of service area are expected to be served by transit at no less than LOS D.
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Currently there is not transit service provided to the study area. The City of Fort Collins 2015 Transit
System indicates that the project site will not be directly served. However the Mountain Vista Subarea
Plan outlines the following service to the area: a transit hub located in the Community Commercial
District which is located south of Mountain Vista Drive between Timberline and LCR 9; primary transit
service along Conifer Street, Timberline Road, Mountain Vista Road, and connections to the Park and
Ride facilities at 1-25 and Mountain Vista Drive; and bus feeder service as warranted throughout the
subarea as development occurs.
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PEDESTRIAN LEVEL OF SERVICE
Pedestrian circulation within the project area is anticipated to meet the criteria set forth by the City of
Fort Collins. The City evaluates pedestrian circulation based upon the following criteria: directness,
continuity, street crossings, visual interest and amenity, and security. The final design of the proposed
Gillespie Farm will be evaluated based upon the criteria set forth in the City of Fort Collins Muitimoda/
Transportation Level of Service Manual, March 28, 1997. The proposed Bikeway Trail should also
provide pedestrians with additional travel options within the project area.
Existing residential areas to the west of the project site do not satisfy the criteria standards for
pedestrians.
The Gillespie Farm ODP will be located within a School Walking Area if the proposed high school site
to the south is developed. A location within a School Walking Area sets the level of service threshold
at LOS B (with the exception of visual interest and amenities which have a threshold of LOS Q. The
level of service is evaluated from the project site to other areas within the walking distance of 1,320
feet (1/4 mile). Each of the criteria are discussed below.
Directness The detailed design for a goal of LOS B is expected to be satisfied. The roadway
system internal to the site is anticipated to follow a grid -like system.
Continuity The achievement of continuity is expected to satisfy the desirable LOS B. There should
' be continuous stretches of sidewalk within and directly adjacent to the project site
which are separated by a landscaped parkway. However, pedestrian activity which
travels to/from the existing residential areas west of the project site will not have
separate pedestrian facilities available.
Street
Crossing As the Mountain Vista Subarea is developed, the goal of LOS B should be achievable.
Visual Interest
and Amenity It is anticipated that the Level of Service C will be satisfied.
Security The pedestrian level of service guideline indicate that to achieve a LOS of B, there
should be good lighting levels and unobstructed lines of sight. Currently there is no on -
street lighting within the study area. As this area develops it is anticipated that this
level of service criteria will be satisfied.
' Pedestrian LOS Worksheets will be prepared for this project when detailed roadway and site layouts
are prepared.
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TABLE 4
INTERSECTION PEAK HOUR LEVELS OF SERVICE
FUTURE TRAFFIC CONDITIONS - YEAR 2020
Intersection
Peak Hour Level of Service
Background
Total
AM
PM
AM
PM
LCR 11 /LCR 52
(signalized)
B
B
B
B
LCR 11 /Country Club
(signalized)
B
B
B
C
LCR 11 /Mountain Vista
(signalized)
B
C
B
C
LCR 9E/Mountain Vista
(signalized)
B
B
B
B
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TABLE 3
INTERSECTION PEAK HOUR LEVELS OF SERVICE
FUTURE TRAFFIC CONDITIONS - YEAR 2005
Peak Hour Level of Service
Background
Total
AM
PM
AM
PM
Intersection
LCR 11/LCR 52
(stop -controlled)
NB LTR
A
A
A
A
SB LTR
A
A
A
A
WB LTR
A
A
A
A
EB LTR
A
A
A
A
LCR 11 /Country Club
(stop -controlled)
NB LT NB LTR
A
A
A
A
SB LTR
A
A
WB LTR
B
B
EB LT EB LTR
A
A
B
B
LCR 11/Mountain Vista
(stop -controlled)
EB
A
A
A
A
WB
A
A
A
A
SB
A
A
A
A
Overall
A
A
A
A
Timberline/Mountain Vista
(stop -controlled)
WB LT
A
A
A
A
NBLR
B
B
B
B
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VII. TRAFFIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
The previous chapter described the development of future traffic forecasts both with and without the
proposed project. Intersection capacity analyses are conducted in this chapter for both scenarios to
assess the potential impact of the proposed project -generated traffic on the local street system. This
chapter will also assess the pedestrian, bicycle, and transit level of service.
TRAFFIC ANALYSIS - YEAR 2005
The peak hour background and total traffic volumes for Year 2005, illustrated on Figures 4 and 8
respectively, were analyzed to determine the intersection delay and corresponding level of service.
Table 3 summarizes these results for Year 2005 background and total traffic conditions. It should be
noted that under the Year 2005 analysis, no roadway improvements were assumed. Additionally, as
mentioned previously, all access to the project was assumed to be to/from LCR 11.
As indicated in Table 3, each of the study intersections are projected to operate at an acceptable level
of service under future traffic conditions for Year 2005.
TRAFFIC ANALYSIS - YEAR 2020
The Year 2020 peak hour traffic volumes for background and total traffic conditions, depicted on
Figures 5 and 7 respectively, were analyzed to determine the intersection delay and corresponding level
of service. Table 4 summarizes these results. Under long range future conditions the following
roadway configurations were assumed under base conditions:
LCR 11 /LCR 52 would accommodate an exclusive left -turn, through lane, and right -turn
lane in each direction.
LCR 11 /Country Club Road would accommodate an exclusive left -turn lane, through
lane, and right -turn lane in each direction.
LCR 11 /Mountain Vista/Adriel would be designed as follows: in the northbound
direction exclusive left -turn, through, and right -turn lanes; southbound an exclusive left -
turn lane and a share through/right-turn lane; eastbound a shared left/through/right; and
in the westbound direction a shared left-turn/through lane and an exclusive right -turn
lane.
LCR 9E/Mountain Vista would be designed as follows: southbound exclusive left -turn
and right -turn lanes; eastbound an exclusive left -turn lane and through lane; and
westbound an exclusive right -turn lane and through lane.
Each of the four above mentioned intersections would be signalized.
The level of service analysis shown in Table 4 indicates that each of the study intersections would
operate acceptably under long range future traffic conditions.
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V. FUTURE TOTAL TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS
The future total traffic projections reflect future traffic conditions with traffic from the proposed
Gillespie Farm project. The future total traffic projections were developed for Years 2005 and 2020.
TOTAL TRAFFIC YEAR 2005
The total traffic for Year 2005 was developed by: adding traffic from the proposed project to the
background traffic for Year 2005. The resulting peak hour total traffic projections for Year 2005 are
shown on Figure 6.
TOTAL TRAFFIC YEAR 2020
The total traffic for Year 2020 was developed by: adding traffic from the proposed project to the
background traffic for Year 2020. The resulting peak hour total traffic projections for Year 2020 are
shown on Figure 7.
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TABLE 2
ESTIMATED TRIP GENERATION
AM Peak Hour
PM Peak Hour
ITE
Land Use
Units
Code
ADT
In
Out
Tot
In
Out
Tot
Single
720
Family
DU
210
6,890
137
403
540
468
259
727
Multi -
Family
72 DU
230
422
5
27
32
26
13
39
Park
8 acres
41 1/
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1
1
1
2
412
TOTAL
7,325
1 143
1 430
573
495
273
768
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' IV. PROJECT TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS
Development of traffic projections for the proposed Gillespie Farm ODP involved the following steps:
estimation of trip generation, development of a trip distribution, and assignment of traffic onto the
' roadway system.
' PROJECT DESCRIPTION
The proposed Gillespie Farm ODP is a residential project on approximately 160 acres. The project will
include the following uses: 720 single family dwelling units, 72 multi -family dwelling units, an 8 acre
' neighborhood park for the use of the community, and an 2 acre neighborhood recreation center for use
of the Gillespie Farm residences.
' TRIP GENERATION
The trip generation estimates for the proposed project were developed based upon trip generation data
from the Institute of Transportation Engineers, Trip Generation, 5th edition, 1991. A vehicle trip is
defined as a one-way vehicle movement from a point of origin to a point of destination. Table 2
provides the projected daily, AM and PM peak hour traffic volumes generated by the proposed project.
Traffic generation projections were estimated for full build -out. Based upon estimates by the project
applicant, it is anticipated that approximately 120 dwelling units could be constructed by Year 2005.
However, for purposes of the traffic study, it was assumed that approximately 25 percent of the project
would be completed by Year 2005. As indicated in Table 2, it is anticipated that at full build -out the
project will generate approximately 7,325 daily trips, 573 morning peak hour, and 768 evening peak
hour trips.
tTRIP DISTRIBUTION
The overall directional distribution of the site -generated traffic was determined based on the location
of the site within the City of Fort Collins, current traffic patterns, long range model projections, and the
type of use. The Mountain Vista Subarea Plan determined a trip distribution for the study area, these
results were also utilized. The trip distribution used in the traffic analysis was:
- approximately 10% to the north,
- approximately 20% to the east,
- approximately 40% to the south,
- approximately 20% to the west, and
- approximately 10% internal to the Mountain Vista Subarea.
TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT
' Traffic assignment is how the generated and distributed trips are expected to be loaded on the roadway
network. For the Year 2005 analysis, with the assumption of 25 percent build -out, access to the site
' was assumed to be to/from LCR 11 only. No direct access would be provided from LCR 52.
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III. FUTURE BACKGROUND TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS
In order to properly evaluate the potential impact of the proposed Gillespie Farm ODP on the local traffic
conditions, future traffic volumes were first estimated for the study area without the project. These
' future forecasts reflect the growth that is expected from overall development in the study area and the
City of Fort Collins and from proposed projects within the vicinity of the project site. Future traffic
projections were developed for the Years 2005 and 2020.
BACKGROUND TRAFFIC YEAR 2005
' The growth reflected in Year 2005 Background Traffic was developed by accounting for overall growth
in traffic within the study area. Based upon historical traffic growth, and the anticipated development
of proposed projects within the study area, it was estimated that the existing traffic would experience
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a two percent per year growth rate within the short range future. For a Year 2005 analysis, the
existing traffic volumes were factored by a total of ten percent.
The peak hour background traffic for Year 2005 is depicted on Figure 4. As mentioned above this was
developed by factoring existing traffic to account for overall growth in the City of Fort Collins and
anticipated development of nearby areas.
BACKGROUND TRAFFIC YEAR 2020
Future projections of background traffic for Year 2020 were developed based upon traffic projections
developed for the Mountain Vista Subarea Plan. The traffic forecasts developed for this plan were
developed by combining future traffic levels project for the area specified in the North Front Range
Regional Model with vehicle trips that would be generated by full build -out of the Mountain Vista
Subarea Plan.
The daily traffic model projections were analyzed and peak hour traffic projections were developed
assuming that the morning peak hour would represent approximately 8 percent of the average daily
traffic and the afternoon peak hour approximately 10 percent. These peak hour estimates are based
upon data from the Mountain Vista Subarea Plan. The resulting peak hour background traffic
projections for Year 2020 are depicted on Figure 5.
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' TRANSIT SERVICE
Trans fort currently does not provide service within the study area.
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TABLE 1
INTERSECTION PEAK HOUR LEVELS OF SERVICE
EXISTING TRAFFIC CONDITIONS
Peak Hour Level of
Service
AM
PM
Intersection
LCR 11 /LCR 52
(stop -controlled)
NB LTR
A
A
SB LTR
A
A
WB LTR
A
A
EB LTR
A
A
LCR 11 /Country Club
(stop -controlled)
NB LT
A
A
EB LR
A
A
LCR 11 /Mountain Vista/Adriel
(stop -controlled)
EB
A
A
WB
A
A
SB
A
A
Overall Intersection
A
A
Timberline/Mountain Vista
(stop -controlled)
WB LT
A
A
NB LR
A
B
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Timberline Road is a two-lane arterial street. The speed limit is posted at 40 mph south of Vine Drive.
Bike lanes are provided on each side of Timberline Road near Mountain Vista Drive. The adjacent
landuse within the study area is primarily undeveloped.
EXISTING INTERSECTION PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC VOLUMES
Weekday morning and evening peak hour traffic counts were conducted in August, 2000 at the
following locations: LCR 1 1 /LCR 52, LCR 1 1 /Country Club, LCR 11 /Mountain Vista, and
Timberline/Mountain Vista. The existing peak hour traffic volumes are depicted in Figure 3. The traffic
count data sheets are provided in Section A of the Technical Appendicies (which are submitted as a
separate document). The City of Fort Collins provided peak hour traffic counts at the intersection of
Lemay Avenue and Vine Drive. However, during the data collection efforts for this study, this
intersection was closed due to construction related to the railroad. Field observation of Lemay/Vine
will be conducted following this construction and the analysis of this intersection will be provided in
a subsequent technical memorandum.
INTERSECTION LEVEL OF SERVICE METHODOLOGY
Level of service (LOS) is a qualitative measure used to describe the conditions of traffic flow, ranging
from excellent conditions at LOS A to overloaded conditions at LOS F. Level of service definitions are
provided in Appendix B. The City of Fort Collins standard for minimum acceptable Level of Service
depends on the roadway classification and the land use. For this study, signalized intersections along
arterial streets should maintain a LOS D and the stop -controlled intersections on arterial streets should
maintain a LOS E. The Unsignalized and Signalized Intersection Analysis techniques, as published in
the Highway Capacity Manua/ by the Transportation Research Board in 1994, were used to analyze the
study intersections for each of the traffic scenarios. The capacity worksheets are provided in Appendix
C. These techniques allow for the determination of the intersection level of service based on
congestion and delay of each traffic movement.
EXISTING PEAK HOUR LEVELS OF SERVICE
Table 1 summarizes the existing weekday morning and evening peak hour level of service at the study
intersections. Under actual, existing conditions, the study intersections are operating at acceptable
levels of service during the peak hours.
PEDESTRIAN FACILITIES
The study area is within a rurally designed area of the City of Fort Collins and Larimer County. Based
upon the standards set forth by the City, no separate pedestrian facilities currently exist within the
study area are.
BICYCLE FACILITIES
There are bicycle facilities on both Timberline and Mountain Vista Roads. These are striped and posted
bike lanes which are approximately 5 to 8 feet in width. On Mountain Vista, there is a short section
between Timberline and Ziegler Roads which does not provide bike lanes. There are also bike lanes on
LCR 52 east of Ziegler Road.
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II. EXISTING CONDITIONS
A comprehensive data collection effort was undertaken to develop a detailed description of the existing
conditions within and near the project site. The assessment of conditions relevant to this study include
land use, streets, traffic volumes, operating conditions on the street system, pedestrian system, bicycle
network, and transit service. The study area includes the transportation system which currently exists
within approximately 1 /4 mile of the project site.
EXISTING STREET SYSTEM
The following roadways would serve as the primary transportation system to the proposed project: LCR
11, LCR 52, Country Club Road, Mountain Vista Drive, and Timberline Road. Each of these roadways
is described below.
Larimer County Road 11 is a two-lane county roadway which would provide direct access to the project
site. This north/south roadway currently is designed to rural standards. The roadway has an edge
stripe which indicates the travel lanes. The pavement outside the edge stripe is very narrow, 1 to 2
feet. On the west side of LCR 11, directly adjacent to the project site are single family residences. The
east side of LCR 11 is primarily undeveloped rural agricultural land. The speed limit is posted at 45 mph
north of LCR 52 and 40 mph south of LCR 52. There is a short improved section on LCR 11 directly
north of Mountain Vista Drive which includes paved shoulders. The intersection of LCR 11 and LCR
52 is four-way stop controlled. The t-intersection of LCR 11 and Country Club Road is stop -controlled
for Country Club Road. The intersection of LCR 11 and Mountain Vista Drive/Adriel Drive is stop -
controlled for each roadway. Currently LCR 11 ends at it's intersection with Mountain Vista Drive.
Larimer County Road 52 is an east/west, two-lane roadway whit boarders he northern edge of the
project site. Currently adjacent to the project site, LCR 52 is unpaved. West of LCR 11, LCR
52/Richards Lake Road is a two-lane paved roadway which provides access to the residential area on
it's south side. East of Ziegler Road, LCR 52 is a paved two-lane roadway with marked and paved
shoulders. The speed limit in this section is posted at 40 mph. The land use to the north of the project
site is undeveloped agricultural land.
Country Club Road is an east/west roadway which operates between State Highway 1 and LCR 11.
This two-lane roadway provide access to the adjacent residential areas, Long Pond, and the Fort Collins
Country Club. Country Club Road is oriented to curve around the southern side of Long Pond. The
speed limit is posted at 30 mph. The shoulder is unmarked in some areas and is narrow (approximately
1 to 3 feet) between Lemay Avenue and LCR 11. There is a posted school crossing at Sherrell Drive.
Mountain Vista Drive is a two-lane roadway which provides direct access to Interstate 25 east of the
study area. At LCR 11, Mountain Vista Drive ends and the western extension of this roadway is Adriel
Drive which provides access into the Adriel Hills residential area. Mountain Vista Drive is an east/west
roadway with a posted speed of 50 mph east of Timberline and 45 mph west of Timberline. There are
striped bike lanes with the exception of the section between Timberline and Ziegler Roads. On the
north side of Mountain Vista Drive, near LCR 11, there is construction of the Storybook residential
development. To the east of this, there is a potential development for a 110 acre high school site. The
t-intersection of Timberline Road and Mountain Vista Drive is stop -controlled for Timberline Road.
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' Existing Conditions - The analysis of existing traffic conditions is intended to provide
a basis for the remainder of the study. The existing conditions analysis includes an
assessment of traffic volumes and operating conditions at the study intersections,
determination of the existing pedestrian and bicycle facilities, and levels of existing
transit service.
Background Traffic - Years 2005 and 2020 - Future traffic conditions will be projected
for Years 2005 and 2020. The objective of this phase of the analysis is to project
future traffic growth and operating conditions which could be expected to result from
regional growth and from related projects in the vicinity of the project site.
Project Generated Traffic - The traffic generated by the proposed project will be
determined.
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Total Traffic - Years 2005 and 2020 - This is an analysis of future traffic conditions
with traffic expected to be generated by the proposed project added to the Background
Traffic forecasts. The impacts of the proposed project on future traffic operating
conditions can then be identified. The pedestrian, bicycle, and transit network will also
be evaluated.
The City of Fort Collins identified the following intersections to be analyzed for the traffic scenarios:
1. LCR 11 and LCR 52
2. LCR 11 and Country Club Road
3. LCR 11 and Mountain Vista Drive
4. Timberline Road and Mountain Vista Drive
5. Lemay Avenue and Vine Drive
ORGANIZATION OF REPORT
The remainder of this report is divided into six parts. Chapter II presents and analysis of the existing
street system, traffic conditions for each of the study intersections, assessment of the existing
pedestrian and bicycle system, and transit service. Forecasts of future background traffic for Years
2005 and 2020 are provided in Chapter III. Traffic projections for the proposed project are discussed
in Chapter IV. Chapter V presents the total traffic projections for Years 2005 and 2020. The future
intersection operating conditions, pedestrian system, bicycle network, and transit service are presented
in Chapter VI. The conclusions of the transportation impact study are provided in Chapter VII.
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PIANNING & ZONING CERTIFCATE
PROJECT NOTES
GILLESPIE FARM
OVERALL DEVELOPMENT PLAN
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I. INTRODUCTION
This report documents the findings of a multi -modal transportation study conducted to evaluate the
potential transportation impacts and circulation needs of the proposed Gillespie Farm overall
development plan. The project is located in Fort Collins, Colorado.
The Gillespie Farm is a proposed 160 acre residential project to be located at the southeast corner of
Larimer County Roads 11 and 52. The site location is shown on Figure 1. The overall development
plan has been designed to include the following land use elements: approximately 720 single family
dwelling units, 72 multi -family dwelling units, an 8 acre neighborhood park, and a 2 acre neighborhood
recreation center. The site plan also includes a bikeway trail through the entire site which will connect
with the future bikeway trail system developed under the Mountain Vista Subarea Framework Plan.
Discussions with the project applicant indicated that approximately 120 dwelling units would be
constructed by Year 2005. However, to provide a conservative analysis in regards to the surrounding
transportation system, it was assumed, that approximately 25 percent of the project would be built by
Year 2005.
A detailed site plan is provided on Figure 2. The City of Fort Collins requires that new development
projects provide access to the roadway system at a minimum of every 660 feet. The proposed project
has been designed to accommodate this requirement. The project site plan has also been designed to
follow the roadway layout established by the City of Fort Collins Master Street Plan. At build -out, the
site would have the following access:
the project will have an east/west collector and north/south collector roadway through
the site;
on the west side of the project site three access locations will be provided to Larimer
County Road 11 (LCR 11);
on the north side of the project site three access locations will be provided to Larimer
County Road 52 (LCR 52);
on the east side of the site, three access locations will be provided to connect to future
development to the east of the project site; and
on the south side of the site three access locations will be provided.
STUDY SCOPE
The scope for this study was developed in conjunction with the City of Fort Collins traffic engineering
and planning staff. The base assumptions, technical methodologies and geographic coverage of the
study were all identified as part of the study approach.
The study is directed at the analysis of potential project -generated traffic impacts along the existing and
future street system. As directed by the above mentioned City departments, the following traffic
scenarios are analyzed in the study:
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GILLESPIE FARM - OVERALL DEVELOPMENT PLAN
TRANSPORTATION IMPACT STUDY
FORT COLLINS, COLORADO
August, 2000
Prepared by:
RUTH ROLLINS, P.E.
430 East Elizabeth Street
Fort Collins, Colorado 80524
970-416-0410
Ref:2001