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LSA
LSA ASSOCIATES, INC. BEBKELEY POINT RICHMOND
1S2 WEST MOUNTAIN AVENUE 970.494.1568 TEL CARLSBAD RIVERSIDE
FT. COLLINS, COLORADO 80524 970-494-1579 FAX FRESNO ROCKLIN
IRVINE SAN LUIS OBISPO
PALM SPRINGS SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO
MEMORANDUM
DATE: November 5, 2008
TO: Kathleen Bracke, Matthew Wempe
FROM: Sean McAtee
SUBJECT: Lincoln Avenue 2035 Analysis
At your request, LSA Associates, Inc. has performed an analysis of 2035 forecast conditions on Lincoln
Avenue between Riverside Avenue and Lemay Avenue. In this analysis, the segment of Lincoln Avenue
was evaluated for the future need to be constructed with four through lanes between the Poudre River
Bridge (east of Willow Street) Lemay Avenue. The City of Fort Collins Master Street Plan currently
shows this segment of Lincoln as a four -lane arterial. The City has received a request from Odell Brewing
Company to consider amending the Master Street Plan to show this segment as a two-lane arterial.
LSA evaluated the future traffic volumes on this segment using a modified version of the North Front
Range Regional Travel Model (NFR RTM). The model was modified to include socioeconomic data
assumptions provided by the City of Fort Collins Advance Planning Department, to represent proposed
development in the River District and Airpark Village, to produce a more accurate base year forecast on
Lincoln Avenue, and to represent more detail in the immediate study area. Forecast model results were
adjusted to account for base year modeling error using techniques described in the National Cooperative
Highway Research Program Report No. 255 (NCHRP-255).
With Lincoln Avenue assumed as a four -lane facility, as shown in the City's Master Street Plan, growth
rates are forecast at approximately 2.9% per year. This results in traffic forecasts on Lincoln Avenue of
16,000 vehicles per day. This volume exceeds the 15,000 daily vehicle threshold established by the
Latimer County Urban Street Standards.
If the model is modified to assume a two-lane Lincoln Avenue, forecast traffic volumes decrease to about
13,700. This is due to diversion of traffic from Lincoln Avenue to other nearby roadway facilities. This
suggests that reduction of Lincoln Avenue from a four -lane arterial to a two-lane arterial in the Master
Street Plan would result in congestion along Lincoln Avenue in the 2035 timeframe and would limit the
ability to serve projected travel demand.
The following attachments illustrate the technical process:
1. 2005 Validation: comparison of 2005 travel model results with 2005 ground counts.
2. 2035 Roadway Network: 2035 facility type and lane assumptions input to the NFR RTM.
3. 2035 Daily Flow Lincoln 4 Lanes: 2035 forecast volumes, assuming a four -lane Lincoln
Avenue; volumes adjusted using NCHRP-255 are shown in parentheses.
4. 2035 Daily Flow Lincoln 2 Lanes: 2035 forecast volumes, assuming a two-lane Lincoln
Avenue; volumes adjusted using NCHRP-255 are shown in parentheses.
5. Annual Percent Growth (2005-2035): Annualized compound growth rate between 2005 and
2035, assuming four lanes on Lincoln Avenue.
PLANNING I ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES I DESIGN