HomeMy WebLinkAboutMemo - Mail Packet - 6/23/2020 - Information From Darin Atteberry Re: Regional Economic Development Update (Reignite Our Economy)BOTTOM-LINE:
Regional economic development partners from across Larimer and Weld Counties have developed a
framework for recovery. The framework is being shared with regional leaders to help encourage
coordination and collaboration on economic recovery.
DISCUSSION:
Since March 13th, regional economic development professionals from across both Larimer and Weld
counties have been collaborating on COVID response. Now, the same group of folks is beginning to
collaborate on economic recovery. The partners recognize that, in many ways, recovery will be a
localized response the same as much of economic development work. However, the group felt it would
be helpful to develop a regional framework to facilitate coordination and collaboration.
The strongest aspect of the regional framework (see attached) are a series of guiding principles that will
hopefully be integrated into local efforts. These guiding principles include:
• Re-instill confidence.
• This work is both practical and symbolic.
• We all have a vested interest.
• Be data and experience driven.
• Focus on economic recovery.
• Focus on resilience.
• Re-open economic drivers.
• Do no harm.
• Avoid being short-sighted.
• Let form follow function.
Let me know if you have any questions.
Cheers,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
JOSH BIRKS
Economic Health & Redevelopment Director
City of Fort Collins
300 LaPorte Avenue
PO Box 580
Fort Collins, CO 80522
970-221-6324 office
970-219-0118 mobile
jbirks@fcgov.com
June 18, 2020
TO: Mayor & City Council
FROM: Darin Atteberry
FYI /sek
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REIGNITE our ECONOMY
AN ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND REBUILDING PLAN
For Larimer and Weld Counties
Working Draft
June 12, 2020
PURPOSE
Regional economic development stakeholders share this document to communicate our
thinking and proposed strategic approach to ‘reignite’ the regional economy.
BOTTOM-LINE
National, state and local governments took several public health actions intended to slow the
spread of the COVID-19 virus and reduce the impact on our public health infrastructure and
institutions. These actions led to steep economic decline impacting our entire economy,
including restaurants, entertainment, hospitality, retail, higher education, oil and gas,
agriculture, food processing, beer production, manufacturing, hospitals, non-COVID 19 related
health care, and personal services. Reigniting the economy will take a concerted effort of
private sector, public sector, non-profits, and membership-based associations.
A coordinated and organized recovery plan must be developed quickly to address the short-
term and long-term economic challenges facing our community, businesses, institutions, and
local governments. This plan will serve as a guiding document for the region and can be
adapted to meet local goals and objectives. Economic development partners and chambers of
commerce in Larimer and Weld County together propose to develop a plan to Reignite Our
Economy.
CONTENTS
• Economic Context
• Principles for Success
• Phases of Recovery
• Planning Process
• Key Questions
• Appendix
o Geographic Area of the Planning Process
o Partnering and Collaborating
o Stakeholders
# # #
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BACKGROUND & CONTEXT
History of Collaboration
Northern Colorado benefits from years of regional collaboration amongst economic
development professionals and planning staff in Larimer and Weld counties. In 2019, the two
counties formalized the relationship by executing a Memorandum of Understanding
recognizing that significant benefit can result from collaboration on economic development
activities that promote positive business attributes and amenities in Northern Colorado. As a
result, the regional economic development professionals (formally organized through the
Northern Colorado Regional Economic Development Initiative, REDI) responded rapidly as the
impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic began to spread across both counties.
Economic Context
National, state and local governments took several public health actions intended to slow the
spread of the COVID-19 virus and reduce the impact on our public health infrastructure and
institutions. These actions led to steep economic decline impacting our entire economy. The
short-term economic results have been devasting. In March and April, 36 million
unemployment claims have been filed in the country.
In the two-county region, over 42,000 individuals filed initial unemployment claims between
March 7 and May 16, 2020 compared to about 2,300 claims during the same period in 2019.
This resulted in an unemployment rate of approximately 11.0% for Larimer County and 9.8% for
Weld County as of April 2021 (May numbers are not yet available). By comparison, the highest
unemployment rate during the 2008 recession was 8.3% for Larimer County and 9.8% for Weld
County. The loss of income and economic activity associated with the Stay at Home and Safer at
Home public health actions have resulted in significant loss of productivity and tax revenue.
Based on unemployment claims the hardest hit economic sectors include tourism and dining
(Accommodation and Food Service and Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation), retail trade, non-
COVID-19 Health Care (and Social Assistance), construction, and numerous support services
(Other Services and Administrative and Waste Services).
The decline in economic activity not only harms businesses and employees and includes the
following:
• Sharply reduced revenues for state and local government, schools, public colleges and
universities, and special taxing districts. These institutions provide both economic activity
and services that support the economic health of Northern Colorado.
• Charitable not-for-profits and membership-based associations like downtown business
associations, tourism bureaus, trade associations, and chambers of commerce are also
adversely impacted when business declines.
Regional Solution
Public health restrictions will ease enabling the re-opening of businesses and slow wind up of
economic activity. Nobody knows how quickly the economy will rebound. A consensus of
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economists indicates a slow recovery taking years or even a decade1
. Consumer, employee and
patient confidence will dictate economic activity. In the near term that is determined by
perceptions of safety then by an effective means of controlling the spread of the virus, such as a
vaccine.
On the positive side, Northern Colorado is resilient, smart, economically diverse, and
entrepreneurial. In the long run the region will recover. That recovery will largely be done
business by business, organization by organization based on a multitude of individual decisions.
It will be grassroots and organic.
A coordinated, collaborative regional recovery plan can provide the framework for local
recovery enabling cooperation between the public and private sectors. Understanding and
removing functional barriers to consumer, employee, and business re-engagement will be
essential to success. It will be important for the recovery plan to focus on reducing disincentives
and barriers to economic activity and to avoid creating new ones.
1
“U.S. Economy Faces Long Recovery From Coronavirus Effects, Experts Say,” WSJ, June 1, 2020
.
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PRINCIPLES FOR SUCCESS
1. Re-instill confidence. Commerce will regain its footing as the public regains its confidence.
Re-instilling confidence for both the customer and workforce comes with the removal of
functional barriers to re-engage. Everyone shares responsibility in developing confidence –
citizens, businesses, government, institutions, and associations.
2. This work is both practical and symbolic. The symbolic nature of this work is equally
powerful because it ensures the public and business know a coordinated, concerted effort is
underway to help business, the economy and workers.
3. We all have a vested interest. Local governments benefit from a strong economy and rapid
recovery, which generates tax revenue that funds quality government services and public
sector quality of life amenities. Private business benefits from quality government services.
This is a symbiotic relationship that recovery can reinforce.
4. Be data and experience driven. Do not lead with ‘solutions.’ Seek to gather and understand
the data to drive strategies and tactics. Search and scour for best practices (regionally,
nationally, internationally) to identify solutions, lessons learned as implementing, and
pitfalls to avoid.
5. Focus on Economic Recovery. Keep recovery work focused on economic recovery; avoid
mission creep. Focus on the economy and the rest will follow. Non-profits deliver services
not provided by government and business. Their recovery is important to the quality of life
of our region.
6. Focus on resilience. Resilience is the ability for the economy to bounce back from, weather,
and/or avoid shocks. The nature of this shock means that recovery may be uneven with
setbacks. Businesses that have quickly adopted new approaches and models – the
disrupters – seem to be avoiding the worst of the downturn. These new approaches should
be understood and translated to support businesses throughout the economy. Existing
inequities will be exacerbated by the pandemic and economic recession – inequities are
barriers to economic resilience. Northern Colorado has a pioneering and entrepreneurial
history that will aid businesses rebound through innovative adaptation.
7. Re-open Economic Drivers. The key to economic recovery of the region rests primarily on
reopening our vital regional economic drivers, such as higher education, primary employers,
federal labs and offices, and key sectors (tourism, agriculture, manufacturing, etc.).
8. Do no harm. Businesses have suffered to support public health goals. The recovery plan
should focus on actions that support the survival and revival of businesses while avoiding
actions and words that cause further economic harm. The watch phrase for public policy
should be “primum non nocere”, first do no harm. Every attempt should be made to avoid
new regulatory and financial burdens on businesses.
9. Avoid being short-sighted. While addressing short-term needs keep long-term economic
goals in mind. Focus on balancing the interest of both main street businesses and primary
employers in order to maintain economic resilience.
10. Let form follow function. The pursuit of perfect information and data should not become
the enemy of forward motion. The structure for engaging in recovery planning should
develop from the goals of the recovery process not vice versa.
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PHASES OF RECOVERY
The timeline for recovering from the current economic recession remains unclear. Even so,
identifying and naming the stages of recovery provides the foundation of clarity necessary to
gauge progress and implement a coordinated response across our region. Figure 1 below
provides common nomenclature for phases of the economic recession and recovery process:
1. Pre-crisis – previous normal
2. Response – mitigating the decline
3. Precovery – awkward phase of shifting from response to rebuilding
4. Recovery – focus on rebuilding economic activity
5. New normal – arriving at a new and established foundation of economic activity
Figure 1: Phases of Recovery
The final three phases focus on reigniting and rebuilding the economy. The pace of growth in
these phases will parallel the public health actions taken to respond to virus activity in our
community. In addition, the recovery framework must recognize that its very likely a second
wave of activity in the fall may force the economy back into a mode of crisis response.
Below is more detail on the steps. Our regional planning must recognize that timing is
uncertain, and the virus may force the community to move between the various stages outlined
below:
1) Precovery: The 80% Economy (May 2020 – Q4 2020)
As Colorado moves into Safer-at-Home and in the Vast Great Outdoors with more
businesses able to reopen, they do so in a pre-vaccine world. History indicates it will take
time to develop a vaccine; 18 months may be optimistic, which means mid-to late-2021.
National and international coordination may advance the development of a vaccine
significantly. However, until a vaccine is developed and in wide use, things are likely to
settle into what some are calling the “80% economy.”
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The State’s orders offer business processes and workplace practices that accommodate
getting back to work in ways that keep people physically distant. These preventative public
health measures will impact economic activity.
During the coming months, recovery activities should focus on Reopening Strong and Safe.
The following list of actions may support that goal (not an exhaustive list):
• Encourage reopening approaches that recognize the on-going public health crisis and
enable businesses to open confidently and quickly.
o Support businesses and public health officials educate customers and citizens on
their role in supporting the strong and safe reopening of the economy.
• Refocus engagement with key employers, cluster businesses, and key institutions.
o Consult regularly with Colorado State University and University of Northern
Colorado about their plans to reopen for in-person classes this fall.
o Elevate business retention and expansion contacts with key employers to
understand needs, obstacles, and opportunities.
o Identify clusters and prospects to recruit into the region.
• Understand the data. What happened to the region’s employment, Regional Gross
Product, per capital income, per capita expenditures, etc.
o Analyze the economic impact of the universities (CSU & UNC) operating at various
levels below their 2018-19 levels.
• Engage with elected officials and public policy to support recovery efforts.
o Engage in the distribution of CARES Act funds and other forms of Federal Aid to
local government and businesses.
o Identify potential public policy actions that could facilitate recovery.
o Be prepared to proactively engage public health and elected officials to advise a
restrained approach to business if cases of the virus spike again.
• Develop an economic recovery strategy and plan.
2) Recovery: Re-igniting and Rebuilding (Q4 2020 & Beyond)
Economic damage has been caused by the two-month shutdown. Many small companies
will not survive the shutdown. Others will not make it through an economy operating at
80%. The basic model of some industries will change. While avoiding the contention that
‘everything has changed,’ a great deal has changed. Communities and regions will need to
be deliberate in assessing the economic changes and translating those changes into
potential opportunities and threats.
During the fall and winter of 2020-21:
• Begin implementing the economic strategy.
• Regularly revisit and refine the plan throughout 2021.
3) New Normal: Return to Organic Growth
At some point, the economy will normalize the influence of the COVID 19 virus either
through a vaccine, better treatments, or herd immunity. Economic activity will return to
nearly pre-crisis levels. At this point, recovery will transfer into a new normal set of
conditions. The recovery plan should anticipate this transition and focus on positioning our
region well for the opportunities and threats that will be a part of the new economic
system.
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PLANNING PROCESS
The development of a regional recovery plan will occur in three phases – organizing, development, and
implementation. These phases as currently conceived are defined further below.
ORGANIZING PHASE
Objective: Determine how and who needs to be engaged in developing the recovery plan.
Deliverable: Organizational structure that addresses the principles for success.
• Convene regional economic development partners (May/June 2020) – Discuss structure,
decide on options for a planning process (e.g., scenario planning, use of StratOps approach,
etc.), define roles, determine how and who to engage during planning process, set a
schedule.
o Develop and confirm approach to integrating with and supporting the Larimer and Weld
County recovery planning efforts.
• Convene technical advisory sub-group (May/June 2020) – Refine structure, set research
plan, set work schedule, develop planning process and schedule, decide on deliverables and
elements of a plan, finalize guiding principles, plan the stakeholder meetings.
DEVELOPMENT PHASE
Objective: Develop a regional recovery plan that can be adapted to local conditions by
individual communities.
Deliverable: Recovery Plan.
Task 1 – Analyze and Understand
• Do in-depth group conversations with vertical business sectors
• Study national / international trends in key business sectors relevant to our economy – chip
fabrication, software development, higher education, aviation, heavy construction
equipment, pharmaceuticals, oil and gas, ag, food production, etc. (start with Regional
Economic Development Initiative – REDI’s cluster study). Consider augmenting local data
staff of city and county with outside consulting help. How has the health crisis and
subsequent economic downturn impacted their industries in general and how have their
models changed? What are the implications for local employment and the economy?
• Analyze regional data – employment, regional gross product, capital investments, tax
collections, etc.
Task 2 – Strategy Development
• Use information, data, and practices from task 1 to complete a planning process defined
during the organizing phase
Other tasks will be developed during the organizing phase to deliver a complete regional
recovery plan.
IMPLEMENTATION PHASE
Objective: Adapt the regional recovery plan strategies to local implementation and coordinate
regional solutions where they provide efficiency and effectiveness.
Deliverable: Individual implementation actions plans – community or strategy specific.
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KEY QUESTIONS
Several key questions need to be answered before and during our regional recovery planning.
These questions include:
• How has the pandemic impacted the regional economy? Regional domestic product?
Job losses overall and by sector? Unemployment claims? Bankruptcies? Business
closures? Business formations? Capital equipment purchases?
• How have key economic drivers been impacted by the pandemic? Higher education,
health care, construction, manufacturing, oil and gas, agriculture, and food processing.
• What is the economic outlook overall and what is the outlook for key business
sectors? How have various sectors changed their models? Are these changes short-term
or permanent? How will those changes impact the economy? How long will it take the
area to replace the lost jobs and regrow the regional domestic product?
• What are the key obstacles to economic recovery? Are there unique opportunities and
constraints to recovery within Northern Colorado? How do Disadvantage Business
Entities (DBEs) fit into the economic recovery? Are there short-term public policy
changes that could facilitate business restarts and rehiring? Long-term?
• How has the pandemic impacted our regional economic strategy? What new
opportunities exist because of the pandemic disruption? Has this disruption made us
vulnerable to losses? What industry clusters do we need to focus on? What is our
strategy for each? How should the strategy respond to the impact on primary
businesses versus main street businesses?
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NEXT STEPS
In order to deliver on this strategic framework and regional recovery plan the regional
partnership will begin the following steps immediately:
1. ANALYZE AVAILABLE DATA:
• Goal: Evaluate impacts to the regional economy, economic drivers, and forecast an
outlook for the short- and mid-term economy in Northern Colorado
• Lead: Regional Data Working Group
• Approach: Leverage regional staff and data sources augmented by third-party
experts and data sources as needed
• Potential Third Party Resources:
i. Impact Data Source
ii. EMSI Data (Fort Collins & Larimer County) and analysis consultants
iii. Previous consultants – Alexander Research & Consulting, TIP Strategies, others
2. DEVELOP A WORK PLAN & CALENDAR:
• Goal: Develop a working scope and planning calendar for the Recovery Plan process
• Lead: David May, Fort Collins Area Chamber of Commerce, and SeonAh Kendall, City
of Fort Collins Recovery Manager
• Approach: Create a working document to guide specific work streams and create
deadlines to ensure swift development
• Key Questions:
i. How does the steering committee fit into this activity?
ii. How does this activity coordinate/compliment the Larimer County plan?
3. DEVELOP A BUDGET (If Necessary):
• Goal: Outline funding requirements of the proposed planning process
• Lead: David May, Fort Collins Area Chamber of Commerce, and SeonAh Kendall, City
of Fort Collins Recovery Manager
• Potential Funding Sources:
i. Regional EDA grant
ii. CARES funds (from County funds)
4. FRAME IMPLEMENTATION STRUCTURE:
• Goal: Develop initial implementation structure
• Lead: TBD
• Approach: Develop workstream teams to lead various aspects of implementation
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Appendix
GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF THE PLANNING PROCESS
While many think regionally, there are some practical issues when developing a regional plan.
The organizers of ‘Reignite Our Economy’ will need to determine if this is a two-county plan, a
Larimer County plan, or a Larimer plan and a Weld plan coordinated through groups like
Regional Economic Development Initiative (REDI) and Northern Colorado Legislative Alliance
(NCLA) or the North Front Range Metropolitan Planning Organization (NFRMPO) or some other
regional entity.
PARTNERING AND COLLABORATORING
Partnership and collaboration require two ingredients – communication and organization. Both
aspects of a regional planning process will need to be developed further and should be an early
deliverable of the process.
Communication:
An outline describing how information will flow during the planning process should be an early
task of the regional economic development partners. Regular updates should occur between
the regional economic development partners and the steering committee. Additionally,
information about the plan should be shared with the industry sectors, businesses, and
communities. NoCoRecovers.com may provide a platform for updates and communication
more broadly.
Organization:
There are numerous potential partners and collaborators. It may be worthwhile to encourage
the formation of a steering committee to guide the plan. Convening this group does not need to
be the purview of the regional economic development partners. The steering committee could
be convened by one or both counties. Larimer County has already begun to develop a structure
for convening stakeholders. The regional economic development partners should engage in the
structuring of this process to ensure alignment.
STAKEHOLDERS
Numerous partners and collaborators could participate in the process. Below is an initial and
incomplete list:
Local Partners:
• Elected officials (steering committee, both phases)
• Executive staff representative for towns, cities, county (steering committee, both phases)
• Tourism bureaus (steering committee and technical advisory committee, both phases)
• Industry sectors and business associations and business sectors – Northern Colorado
Manufacturers Sector Partnership, Health Sector Partnership, Trades Sector Partnership,
Talent 2.0, Innosphere, downtown associations, CO-LABS, etc. (steering committee), SBDC
• Economic development organizations / chambers of commerce (technical advisory
committee)
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• Higher education: Colorado State University, University of Northern Colorado, Aims
Community College, Front Range Community College (steering committee)
• Education K-12: Poudre School District (PSD), Thompson, Greeley-Evans
• United Ways, Community Foundations, and other nonprofits that support workers,
childcare, etc.
• North Front Range Metropolitan Planning Organization (NFRMPO)
• Public health (technical advisory committee, first phase)
• Unions
Regional Partners
• Northern Colorado Legislative Alliance
• Northern Colorado Regional Economic Development Initiative (NoCo REDI)
State Partners
• Colorado Office of Economic Development and International Trade (OEDIT)
• Metro Denver Economic Development Corporation (MDEDC)
• Colorado Restaurant Association
METRICS
1. Consumer Confidence
2. Business Confidence
3. Net promoter score
4. Tax Payment Rate
5. Unemployment Rate
6. Jobless claims
7. Business closure
8. Business formation
9. Student enrollment
POTENTIAL DATA SOURCES
1. Sales Tax collections: total and industry specific
2. Use Tax collections: construction materials and capital equipment; total and industry
specific
3. Business Personal Property Tax valuation
4. Real Estate Conditions: vacancy rate, evictions, rents, sales, foreclosures
5. Building Permits: Planning activity, building permits, construction starts
6. Oil & Gas Activity: Permits, rig count
7. Public Infrastructure Spending
8. Essential vs. Non-essential Employment
9. Economic Productivity: regional, state, national
10. Business Model Shift: businesses that pivoted in response to the pandemic; businesses
that pivoted and returned to previous model on re-opening (data does not exist would
need to be collected)
11. Business metrics: formation, closure; by size, ownership (e.g., DBE), industry, location
12. Higher Education: student enrollment; tuition; graduation rates; placement of graduates