Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutMemo - Mail Packet - 5/26/2020 - Memorandum From Lisa Rosintoski And John Phelan Re: Utilities Covid-19 Dashboard - May 14, 2020Utilities electric · stormwater · wastewater · water 222 Laporte Avenue PO Box 580 Fort Collins, CO 80522 970.212.2900 utilities@fcgov.com fcgov.com/utilities M E M O R A N D U M DATE: May 14, 2020 TO: Mayor Troxell and Councilmembers FROM: Lisa Rosintoski, Deputy Director, Customer Connections John Phelan, Energy Services Senior Manager THROUGH: Darin Atteberry, City Manager Jeff Mihelich, Deputy City Manager Theresa Connor, Interim Utilities Executive Director RE: Utilities COVID-19 Dashboard The purpose of this memo is to provide an update regarding ongoing efforts to document the COVID-19 pandemic impact on the community through the lens of Fort Collins Utilities. Bottom line Utilities has established a data “dashboard” which helps to represent the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the community and the Utilities organization. The initiative has established an ongoing yet evolving set of metrics. It is intended to support awareness and decision-making for Utilities Senior Staff, the City Manager’s Office and City Council. Key takeaways (data from March 26 through May 9) • Total electricity use lower by ~9%; peak demand lower by ~11% • Residential use within 1% of expected • Small / medium commercial use lower by ~ 20% • Large commercial use lower by ~ 19% • Industrial commercial use lower by ~ 4% • Accounts eligible for disconnect up 42% • Community treated water and wastewater down ~ 2-5% but in normal range • Single-family home water use up by ~8% • Multi-family home water use down by ~10% • Small and medium business water use down by ~35% • Analysis of large and industrial commercial water pending • Financial impacts to be reported monthly starting mid-May This week includes the water use by sector metrics with data through May 9. Monthly financial reporting to be added for March and April as soon as complete data is available. DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F 5/13/2020 Brian Tholl, Acting Manager 5/14/2020 5/14/2020 5/15/2020 5/18/2020 Background Key characteristics:  Dashboard tools are expected to evolve over time as needed. The initial presentation platform is a weekly set of PowerPoint slides.  Data characteristics:  Hourly data, reporting daily results, updated weekly  Leveraging existing sources where possible  Sources: Water Production, substation metering, Customer Information System, advanced metering datasets, NEW advanced metering data exports  Metric characteristics:  Responsive to short-term changes in usage or community financial capacity  Primary metrics based upon electricity and water usage by residential and commercial segments  Reflective of Utilities operations, actionable information, financial impacts and potential public interest  Ability to compare with past periods to analyze trends  Not intended to reveal detailed sub-segment changes (e.g. second level analysis for specific business sectors) Thanks to many staff who have contributed to this effort: • Core team: John Phelan, Coy Althoff, Michael Authier, Joe King, Jonathon Care, Crystal Shafii • IT: Joe King, Doug Burkes, Matt Sheetz, Anthony Sanchez • Energy Services: John Phelan, Michael Authier, Pablo Bauleo • Customer Care & Technology: Lori Clements, Jenne Loffer, Tracy Brann, Blake Schlup • Finance: Jonathon Care, Randy Reuscher • Water: Josh Monsrud, Gudi Kokoszka, Kent Peterson, Jason Graham, Abbye Neal • Senior Staff: Lisa Rosintoski, Lance Smith, Tim McCollough, Carol Webb, Theresa Connor Attachments  Utilities COVID-19 Dashboard May 14, 2020 Cc: Tim McCollough, Deputy Director, Light & Power Operations Lance Smith, Deputy Director, Financial Planning & Administration Carol Webb, Deputy Director, Water Resources & Treatment DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F May 14, 2020 Utilities Covid Dashboard Update DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F Weekly summary Metrics 2 Metric Included Community electricity use ✓ Community peak demand ✓ Residential electricity use ✓ Small/Med commercial electricity use ✓ Large commercial electricity use ✓ Industrial commercial electricity use ✓ Daily treated water ✓ Single-family home water use ✓ Multi-family home water use ✓ Small & medium commercial water use ✓ Daily wastewater influent flow ✓ Eligible disconnects for non-payment ✓ Key takeaways (March 26 through May 9) • Total electricity use lower by ~9%; peak demand lower by ~11% • Residential use within 1% of expected • Small / medium commercial use lower by ~ 20% • Large commercial use lower by ~ 19% • Industrial commercial use lower by ~ 4% • Accounts eligible for disconnect up 42% • Community treated water and wastewater down ~ 2-5% but in normal range • Single-family home water use up by ~8% • Multi-family home water use down by ~10% • Small and medium business water use down by ~35% • Analysis of large and industrial commercial water pending • Financial impacts to be reported monthly starting mid-May Notes • New this week - Data through May 9 Metrics indicating impacts to resource use and customer service due to Covid19 DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F Community electricity use 3 Notes: • Total use lower by ~9% from March 26 to May 9 • Financial impacts of reduced revenue and wholesale costs to be reported monthly starting mid-May Data Notes: Expected values are weather adjusted from 2018 and 2019 data, uncertainty ±3% indicated by shaded line partial closure order DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F Community Peak Demand 4 Notes: • Total peak demand trending lower by ~11% from March 16 to May 9 • Financial impacts of reduced revenue and wholesale costs to be reported monthly starting mid-May Data Notes: Expected values are weather adjusted from 2018 and 2019 data, uncertainty ±3% indicated by shaded line partial closure order DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F Residential electricity use 5 Notes: • Total use is very close to the expected values. There are daily variations higher and lower with an overall difference of approximately 1% from March 26 to May 9 • Financial impacts of changes in time-of-day periods use, revenue and wholesale costs to be reported monthly starting mid-May Data Notes: Expected values are weather adjusted from 2019 data, uncertainty ±3% indicated by shaded line partial closure order DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F Small/medium commercial electricity use 6 Notes: • Total use is lower by ~ 20% from March 26 to May 9 • Includes E200 and E250 rate classes (aka GS and GS25) • Financial impacts of reduced revenue and wholesale costs to be reported monthly starting mid-May Data Notes: Expected values are weather adjusted from 2019 data, uncertainty ±3% indicated by shaded line partial closure order DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F Large commercial electricity use 7 Notes: • Total use is lower by ~ 19% from March 26 to May 9 • Includes E300 rate class (aka GS50) • Financial impacts of reduced revenue and wholesale costs to be reported monthly starting mid-May Data Notes: Expected values are weather adjusted from 2019 data, uncertainty ±3% indicated by shaded line partial closure order DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F Industrial commercial electricity use 8 Notes: • Total use is lower by ~ 4% from March 26 to May 9 • Includes E400 and E600 rate classes (aka GS750 and Substation) • Financial impacts of reduced revenue and wholesale costs to be reported monthly starting mid-May Data Notes: Expected values are weather adjusted from 2019 data, uncertainty ±3% indicated by shaded line partial closure order DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F Community treated water demand 9 Notes: • Treated water demand was lower by ~ 2% compared to the average for 2018/19 Data Notes: Does not include transfers to other water districts DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F Single-Family Homes daily water use 10 Notes: • Daily water use was higher by ~ 8% from March 26 to May 9 compared to 2019 • Includes single family and duplex homes Data Notes: Data is not weather normalized DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F Multi-family homes daily water use 11 Notes: • Daily water use was lower by ~ 10% from March 26 to May 9 compared to 2019 • Includes multi-family properties Data Notes: Data is not weather normalized DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F Small & medium commercial daily water use 12 Notes: • Daily water use was lower by ~ 35% from March 26 to May 9 compared to 2019 • Includes smaller water tap sizes (3/4’’ to 2”) • Analysis of large and industrial commercial water use pending Data Notes: Data not weather normalized. Irrigation only taps excluded. DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F Community wastewater influent flow 13 Notes: • Wastewater influent flow was lower by ~ 5% lower compared to the 2018/19 average Data Notes: includes both Drake and Mulberry treatment plants DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F Non-payment Disconnect Information 14 Notes: • March 26 to May 9 - 42% increase over 2019 average • Some March disconnects occurred before the revised policy (Mar 20) • Eligible values show the number of customers who would have received a disconnect notice • Disconnect notices have been suspended but revised customer communications will likely resume soon Data Notes: Data collected daily Monday through Friday each week DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F Next steps Weekly data and metric updates • New information for next week (May 21) - Data through May 16 - Financial analysis for March and April for electricity Thanks to many staff who have contributed to this effort! • Core team: John Phelan, Coy Althoff, Michael Authier, Joe King, Jonathon Care, Crystal Shafii • IT: Joe King, Doug Burkes, Matt Sheetz, Anthony Sanchez • Energy Services: John Phelan, Michael Authier, Pablo Bauleo • Customer Care & Technology: Lori Clements, Jenne Loffer, Tracy Brann, Blake Schlup • Finance: Jonathon Care, Randy Reuscher • Water: Josh Monsrud, Gudi Kokoszka, Kent Peterson, Jason Graham, Abbye Neel • Senior staff: Kevin Gertig, Lisa Rosintoski, Lance Smith, Tim McCollough, Carol Webb, Theresa Connor 15 DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F Data and Analysis Notes Electricity use by sector analysis notes: • 2019 data (Jan-Apr) is used as the baseline with linear or parabolic weather normalization • Weather normalization is split into weekday and weekend day types • Premises in each rate class grouped based on classification in Q1 2020 • Industrial Commercial class has minimal weather dependence during non-summer months • Uncertainty in the estimated usage is about 3% after systematic corrections • Residential analysis does not account for vacant dwellings which may be impacted calculated averages Water use by sector analysis notes: • Single-family sector also includes duplex home types • Small and medium commercial sector includes tap sizes from ¾ to 2 inches • Larger and industrial sector not charted; usage appears to not be impacted by covid19 • Irrigation only water taps excluded • Comparison is to similar period in 2019; assumes limited to no outdoor use • No weather normalization included Thanks to the core data analysis team who have made these results possible! • Jonathon Care, Pablo Bauleo, Michael Authier, Joe King, Abbye Neel, John Phelan 16 DocuSign Envelope ID: 555D57E8-E2E7-456D-B30E-3CCF3E525B8F