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Home My WebLink AboutMemo - Mail Packet - 5/5/2020 - Memorandum From Lisa Rosintoski And John Phelan Re: Utilities Covid-19 DashboardUtilities electric · stormwater · wastewater · water 222 Laporte Avenue PO Box 580 Fort Collins, CO 80522 970.212.2900 utilities@fcgov.com fcgov.com/utilities M E M O R A N D U M DATE: April 30, 2020 TO: Mayor Troxell and Councilmembers FROM: Lisa Rosintoski, Deputy Director, Utilities Customer Connections John Phelan, Energy Services Senior Manager THROUGH: Darin Atteberry, City Manager Jeff Mihelich, Deputy City Manager Kevin R. Gertig, Utilities Executive Director RE: Utilities COVID-19 Dashboard The purpose of this memo is to provide an update regarding ongoing efforts to document the COVID-19 pandemic impact on the community through the lens of Fort Collins Utilities. The attached “dashboard” will be expanded in the following weeks as described below. Bottom line Utilities has established a data “dashboard” which can represent the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the community and the Utilities organization. The initiative has quickly established a limited set of data which will be followed by an ongoing and evolving set of metrics. It is intended to support awareness and decision-making for Utilities Senior Staff, the City Manager’s Office and City Council. Key takeaways (data from March 26 through April 25) • Total electricity use lower by ~8% • Residential use higher by ~1% • Small / medium commercial use lower by ~ 20% • Large commercial use lower by ~ 19% • Industrial commercial use lower by ~ 4% • Accounts eligible for disconnect due to non-payment up 34% in April over 2019 average • Community treated water and wastewater down 6-8% but in normal range • Financial impacts to be reported monthly starting mid-May This week includes the added metrics for electricity use by sector in addition to those from last week, plus updated data through April 24/25. Water use sector specific metrics are under quality assurance review for inclusion next week. Monthly financial reporting to be added for March and April as soon as complete data is available. DocuSign Envelope ID: 9E8D6E8C-65EE-4A99-984B-86F104DDAA52 4/29/2020 4/29/2020 4/29/2020 4/29/2020 4/30/2020 Background Key characteristics:  Interim and final “dashboard” tools are expected to evolve over time as needed. The initial presentation platform is a weekly set of PowerPoint slides.  Data characteristics:  Hourly data, reporting daily results, updated weekly  Leverage existing sources where possible  Sources: Water Production, substation metering, Customer Information System, advanced metering datasets, NEW advanced metering data exports  Metric characteristics:  Responsive to short-term changes in usage or community financial capacity  Primary metrics based upon electricity and water usage by residential and commercial segments; hourly data to allow revenue estimation via rate models  Reflective of Utilities operations, actionable information, financial impacts and potential public interest  Ability to compare with past periods to analyze trends  Not intended to reveal detailed sub-segment changes (e.g. second level analysis for specific business sectors) Thanks to many staff who have contributed to this effort: • Core team: John Phelan, Coy Althoff, Michael Authier, Joe King, Jonathon Care, Crystal Shafii • IT: Joe King, Doug Burkes, Matt Sheetz, Anthony Sanchez • Energy Services: John Phelan, Michael Authier, Pablo Bauleo • Customer Care & Technology: Lori Clements, Jenne Loffer, Tracy Brann, Blake Schlup • Finance: Jonathon Care, Randy Reuscher • Water: Josh Monsrud, Gudi Kokoszka, Kent Peterson, Jason Graham, Abbye Neal • Senior Staff: Kevin Gertig, Lisa Rosintoski, Lance Smith, Tim McCollough, Carol Webb, Theresa Connor Attachments  Utilities COVID-19 Dashboard April 30, 2020 Cc: Tim McCollough, Deputy Director, Light & Power Operations Lance Smith, Deputy Director, Financial Planning & Administration Carol Webb, Deputy Director, Water Resources & Treatment Theresa Connor, Deputy Director, Water Engineering & Field Services DocuSign Envelope ID: 9E8D6E8C-65EE-4A99-984B-86F104DDAA52 April 30, 2020 Utilities Covid Dashboard Update DocuSign Envelope ID: 9E8D6E8C-65EE-4A99-984B-86F104DDAA52 Summary Metrics indicating impacts to resource use and customer service due to Covid19 2 Metric Included Community electricity use  Community peak demand Residential electricity use  Small/Med commercial electricity use  Large commercial electricity use  Industrial commercial electricity use  Daily treated water  Residential water use Small/Med commercial water use Large commercial water use Daily wastewater influent flow  Eligible disconnects for non-payment  Key takeaways (March 26 through April 25) • Total electricity use lower by ~8% • Residential use higher by ~1% • Small / medium commercial use lower by ~ 20% • Large commercial use lower by ~ 19% • Industrial commercial use lower by ~ 4% • Community treated water and wastewater down 6-8% but in normal range • Financial impacts to be reported monthly starting mid-May Notes • New information this week - Data through April 25 - Electricity use by residential and commercial sectors • New information scheduled for next week - Data through May 2 and water use by sector DocuSign Envelope ID: 9E8D6E8C-65EE-4A99-984B-86F104DDAA52 Community electricity use 3 Notes: • Total use lower by ~8% from March 26 to April 25 • Financial impacts of reduced revenue and wholesale costs to be reported monthly starting mid-May Data Notes: Expected values are weather adjusted from 2018 and 2019 data, uncertainty ±3% indicated by shaded line partial closure order DocuSign Envelope ID: 9E8D6E8C-65EE-4A99-984B-86F104DDAA52 Residential electricity use 4 Notes: • Total use is very close to the expected values. There are daily variations higher and lower with an overall difference of +1% from March 26 to April 24 • Financial impacts of changes in time-of-day periods use, revenue and wholesale costs to be reported monthly starting mid-May Data Notes: Expected values are weather adjusted from 2019 data, uncertainty ±3% indicated by shaded line partial closure order DocuSign Envelope ID: 9E8D6E8C-65EE-4A99-984B-86F104DDAA52 Small/medium commercial electricity use 5 Notes: • Total use is lower by ~ 20% from March 26 to April 24 • Includes E200 and E250 rate classes (aka GS and GS25) • Financial impacts of reduced revenue and wholesale costs to be reported monthly starting mid-May Data Notes: Expected values are weather adjusted from 2019 data, uncertainty ±3% indicated by shaded line partial closure order DocuSign Envelope ID: 9E8D6E8C-65EE-4A99-984B-86F104DDAA52 Large commercial electricity use 6 Notes: • Total use is lower by ~ 19% from March 26 to April 24 • Includes E300 rate class (aka GS50) • Financial impacts of reduced revenue and wholesale costs to be reported monthly starting mid-May Data Notes: Expected values are weather adjusted from 2019 data, uncertainty ±3% indicated by shaded line partial closure order DocuSign Envelope ID: 9E8D6E8C-65EE-4A99-984B-86F104DDAA52 Industrial commercial electricity use 7 Notes: • Total use is lower by ~ 4% from March 26 to April 24 • Includes E400 and E600 rate classes (aka GS750 and Substation) • Financial impacts of reduced revenue and wholesale costs to be reported monthly starting mid-May Data Notes: Expected values are weather adjusted from 2019 data, uncertainty ±3% indicated by shaded line partial closure order DocuSign Envelope ID: 9E8D6E8C-65EE-4A99-984B-86F104DDAA52 Community treated water demand 8 Notes: • Treated water demand was lower by 8% compared to the average for 2018/19 Data Notes: Does not include transfers to other water districts DocuSign Envelope ID: 9E8D6E8C-65EE-4A99-984B-86F104DDAA52 Community wastewater influent flow 9 Notes: • Wastewater influent flow was lower by 6% lower compared to the 2018/19 average Data Notes: includes both Drake and Mulberry treatment plants DocuSign Envelope ID: 9E8D6E8C-65EE-4A99-984B-86F104DDAA52 Non-payment Disconnect Information 10 Notes: • April data - 34% increase over 2019 average • March data - 37% increase over 2019 average • Some March disconnects occurred before the revised policy (Mar 20) • Eligible values show the number of customers who would have received a disconnect notice • Disconnect notices have been suspended but revised customer communications will likely resume soon Data Notes: Data through April 25 DocuSign Envelope ID: 9E8D6E8C-65EE-4A99-984B-86F104DDAA52 Next steps Weekly data and metric updates • New information for next week (May 7) - Water use by sector - Data through May 2 Thanks to many staff who have contributed to this effort! • Core team: John Phelan, Coy Althoff, Michael Authier, Joe King, Jonathon Care, Crystal Shafii • IT: Joe King, Doug Burkes, Matt Sheetz, Anthony Sanchez • Energy Services: John Phelan, Michael Authier, Pablo Bauleo • Customer Care & Technology: Lori Clements, Jenne Loffer, Tracy Brann, Blake Schlup • Finance: Jonathon Care, Randy Reuscher • Water: Josh Monsrud, Gudi Kokoszka, Kent Peterson, Jason Graham, Abbye Neal • Senior staff: Kevin Gertig, Lisa Rosintoski, Lance Smith, Tim McCollough, Carol Webb, Theresa Connor 11 DocuSign Envelope ID: 9E8D6E8C-65EE-4A99-984B-86F104DDAA52 Data and Analysis Notes Electricity use by sector analysis is based on: • 2019 data (Jan-Apr) is used as the baseline with linear or parabolic weather normalization • Weather normalization is split into weekday and weekend day types • Premises in each rate class grouped based on classification in Q1 2020 • Industrial Commercial class has minimal weather dependence during non-summer months • Uncertainty in the estimated usage is about 3% after systematic corrections Thanks to the core data analysis team who have made these results possible! • Jonathon Care, Pablo Bauleo, Michael Authier, Joe King, John Phelan 12 DocuSign Envelope ID: 9E8D6E8C-65EE-4A99-984B-86F104DDAA52