HomeMy WebLinkAboutReport - Mail Packet - 7/24/2018 - Information From Darin Atteberry Re: Larimer County 2018-2023 Strategic Plan Community Leadership Summit Materials And 2017-2018 Community ReportP.O. Box 1190, Fort Collins, Colorado 80522-1190, 970.498.7010, Larimer.org
Date: July 11, 2018
Time: 8:00 am – 12:30 pm
Location: The Ranch Events Complex
First National Bank Building – Moorehouse Hall
5280 Arena Circle
Loveland, CO 80538
8:00 am Breakfast and Networking
8:30 am Welcome Commissioner Steve Johnson, Chairman
The Larimer County Strategic Plan
Purpose and Process
Linda Hoffmann, County Manager
Citizen Survey Results Michelle Bird, Public Affairs Manager
Small Groups Breakout #1 Table Groups with Facilitator
9:55 am BREAK
Pre-summit Survey Results Michelle Bird, Public Affairs Manager
Small Groups Breakout #2 Table Groups with Facilitator
12:15 pm Closing Remarks Commissioner Lew Gaiter III, District I
Commissioner Steve Johnson, District II
Commissioner Tom Donnelly, District III
July 19, 2018
TO: Mayor & City Councilmembers
FROM: Darin Atteberry
FYI /sek
July 11, 2018
Strategic Plan Community Leadership Summit
Page 2
Jeni Arndt, State Representative
Darin Atteberry, City of Fort Collins
Jim Becker, Partnership for Age Friendly
Communities
Ken Bennett, Town of Windsor Mayor Pro Tem
Sam Betters, Loveland Housing Authority
Dan Betts, Office of U.S. Senator Cory Gardner
Julie Brewen, Housing Catalyst
Mara Brosy-Wiwchar, Office of US Congressman
Jared Polis
Janelle Brunin, 8th Judicial Court
Sharon Courtney, Larimer County Office on
Aging Advisory Council
Tom DeMint Poudre Fire Authority
Liz Donovan, The Family Center/La Familia
Sean Dougherty, Larimer County Planning
Commission
Stephanie Fancher-English, LRM Concrete
Mark Gants, LC101
April Getchius, Town of Timnath
Shane Hale, Town of Windsor
Kaycee Headrick, Boys & Girls Clubs of Larimer
County
Stacy Hill, Foothills Gateway Inc.
Allison Hines, United Way of Larimer County
Heidi Hostetter, NoCo Manufacturing
Partnership
Jeff Jensen, Larimer County Planning
Commission
Todd Jirsa, Town of Estes Park Mayor
Tom Johnson, Colorado State University
Irene Josey, Larimer County Treasurer
John Kefalas, State Senator
Peter Kelly, Larimer County Open Lands Board
Darlene Kilpatrick, Red Feather Lakes Library
Linda Knowlton, Larimer County Parks Board
David Lehman, Larimer County Environmental &
Science Advisory Board
Randy Lesher, Thompson Valley EMS
Jason Licon, Northern Colorado Regional Airport
Travis Machalek, Town of Estes Park
James MacNaughton, Larimer County Coroner’s
Office
Suzette Mallette, NFRMPO
Jacki Marsh, City of Loveland Mayor
David May, Fort Collins Chamber of Commerce
Jonas McKinley, Northern Colorado Health
Sector Partnership
Angela Myers, Larimer County Clerk & Recorder
Gordon Nuttal, Couragent, Inc.
Josh Noel, Poudre Valley REA
Claudine Perrault, Estes Park EDC
Amy Pezzani, Food Bank of Larimer County
Carol Plock, Health District of Northern Larimer
County
Kathay Rennels, Colorado State University
Cliff Riedel, Larimer County District Attorney
AFFORDABLE/ATTAINABLE HOUSING
Affordable housing (5)
Attainable housing
Housing - availability &
affordability
Livability & affordability for
residents - workers, families &
aging residents
BEHAVIORAL/MENTAL
Behavior health center
Behavioral health
Behavioral health facility
Drug addiction
Expanding mental health services
Mental health (4)
Mental health and substance
abuse
Mental health facility
Mental health support
Mental/behavioral health
COUNTY OPERATIONS
Budget
Continued good stewardship of
public assets and funds
Decreased taxes
Efficiency in operations
Fiscal health
Services vs. revenues – long-term
budget planning
DEVELOPMENT/JOBS
Economic development (2)
Economic development to
keep up with population
increase
Economic growth, retention,
support, diversity
Economic responsibility
Jobs Creation at all levels
Small business support
Workforce training
and resources
FACILITIES/CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS
Addition to the Justice Center
Capital improvement needs
Coordinate CR 5 & Fairgrounds
corridor
Facilities
Jail (2)
Jail expansion
GROWTH/PLANNING
Dealing with growth &changing
demographics
Growth
Growth outside of the GMA
Land Use (2)
Land Use Planning
Managing growth
Mulberry Corridor annexation
partnership
Population growth
2018-23 Strategic Plan Community Leadership Summit
Informational Data
Results from the 2018 Larimer County Citizen Survey indicated that certain topics were of
high priority to the people who live in Larimer County. This document shares facts and data
related to these topics.
• Population Growth and Regional Planning
• Mental Health Services
• Transportation Infrastructure
• Housing Affordability
• Services for Seniors, Veterans and Children
• Emergency Management (Fire and Flood Prevention/Mitigation)
• Broadband Service Access in Rural Areas
• Employment and Workforce (training and placement)
For additional detail on this year’s survey and its results, please visit https://www.larimer.org/2018survey
2
Population Growth and
Regional Planning
POPULATION GROWTH AND REGIONAL PLANNING
Population (2016)
Population 16+ (2016)
Labor Force Participation
(2016)
% of age group in Labor Force
Colorado Department of Local Affairs, State Demography Office. Published 2017.
Population Growth and Forecast
Colorado Department of Local Affairs, State Demography Office. Published 2017.
In-Migration is the primary driver of our population growth. The majority of in-migration is driven by job
opportunities and a smaller portion is due to moves for educational opportunity.
Population Forecast 2018 and 2022 by Age Group
Colorado
Department of Local Affairs, State Demography Office. Population Forecasts. Published 2017.
305,078
338,663
2011
2016
246,536
269,742
2011
2016
+11.0% over 5 years +9% over 5 years
71.6%
of people ages 16+
47%
76%
89% 78%
24%
16 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 54 55 to 64 65+
FORECAST
275K
295K
315K
335K
355K
375K
395K
415K
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
# of People
Base Natural Change Net Migration
3
Population Growth
and Regional Planning
Overall, population is expected to grow by 7% over the next 5 years
The fastest growing age group shown above (by percent change) is ages 80+,
which is expected to grow by 15% over the next 5 years.
Population Forecast by Race/Ethnicity
Colorado Department of Local Affairs, State Demography Office. Population Forecasts. Published 2017.
Our population is growing more diverse, but overall diversity is changing at a slower rate than
population growth.
Labor Force Forecast
Colorado Department of Local Affairs, State Demography Office. Population Forecasts. Published 2017.
The projected changes in labor force participation reflect how people of prime working age are moving
here for jobs. It also highlights the large number of older workers who will be transitioning to retirement
in the next several years.
0
90,000
180,000
270,000
360,000
2018 2022
White non Hispanic
Hispanic
Asian non Hispanic
Black non Hispanic
8,832
20,152
45,729
41,696
35,477
33,762
12,769
9,086
20,631
44,403
49,989
38,287
32,404
15,523
16 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 and over
2018 2022
Race/Ethnicity 2018 2023
White non Hispanic 83.1% 81.3%
Hispanic 12.3% 13.7%
Asian non Hispanic 2.8% 3.2%
Black non Hispanic 1.1% 1.1%
American Indian non Hispanic 0.8% 0.8%
4
Population Growth and
Regional Planning
City Boundaries and Growth Management Areas
5
Mental Health
Services
MENTAL HEALTH
3.2
Poor Mental Health Days
RANK: 5th
3.0
Poor Physical Health Days
RANK: 14th
Obtained from CountyHealthRankings.org 2018 County Rankings. All Ranks are based on “healthier” values as smaller rank numbers. Ranks
are relative to all 64 Colorado Counties. “Health Days” are those in 30 days preceding survey date. Published/Ranking year (2018) differs from
data year (2014 – 2016) for individual items. Visit website for metric definitions
“In Larimer County, an estimated 26,000 people have a substance use disorder and currently need
treatment, yet only about 2,300 actually receive care each year. This means that, each year, tens of
thousands of residents in the County need, but do not get, treatment .Although many of these people are
not yet seeking treatment, about 1,200 do want or would seek help, but are unable to get it due
to the absence of many critical levels of care in the County.”
“Applying Colorado data from the 2015 and 2016 SAMHSA National Survey on Drug Use and Health
(NSDUH) to Larimer County, there are approximately 53,800 adults (18 and older) in this county
(20.1%) who have any mental illness. Of those 53,800 people, just over 12,300 (4.6%) have a serious
mental illness.”
from “What Will it Take?: Solutions to Mental Health Service Gaps in Larimer County”.
Mental Health and Substance Use Alliance of Larimer County, April 2018.
Larimer County Jail Inmates with Mental Health or Substance Abuse
Issues (2016)
Inmates reporting mental health issues 29%
Inmates reporting substance abuse issues 51%
Inmates reporting both issues 25%
Inmates that did not report a mental health or substance abuse
issue
45%
Larimer County Community Corrections
A $1 investment in early treatment and prevention programs for addictions and mental illness yields $2 to
$10 savings in health costs, criminal and juvenile justice costs, educational costs and lost productivity.”
–The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration.
6
Transportation
Infrastructure
TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE
Safety grade is assigned based on relative numbers of crashes per
total vehicle traffic on the roads. Roads with more crashes per overall
traffic get a low grade.
Larimer County uses bridge structure inspection data from the National Bridge Inspection Program to prioritize bridges for
repair, rehabilitation and replacement. The objective of this program is to repair, rehabilitate and replace as many bridges
as possible with the funds that are available.
Data and text from Larimer County Road and Bridge Transportation Report Card
U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 2016 1 year file. Published 2017.
Map: Google Distance Matrix estimates for pessimistic, worst-case traffic during
morning and evening rush hour as well as optimistic travel time during the lowest
traffic demand period across multiple weekdays and trip times from a specific
centrally located address. Calculated for the third week of October, 2016
9%
18%
40%
21%
12%
60%
26%
9% 5%
0%
A B C D F
% of road areas at grade
Road Condition Grade
2005 2017
39%
14%
26%
13% 8%
59%
11% 17%
9% 4%
A B C D F
% of road mileage at grade
Road Safety Grade
2005 2017
75% 74% 67% 64% 65% 62%
Larimer County Colorado United States
Residents with a commute to
work less than 30 minutes
2006
6% 6% 6% 7% 8%
9%
Larimer County Colorado United States
Residents with a commute to
work 1 hour or greater
Travel Time in Minutes
31
25
14 10
12 10 10 8
7 6 8
13 16
9
1992
1994
7
Housing
Affordability
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Median Single Family Home Sales Price (Larimer County)
An 8% down
payment
on a $415K house
is
$33,200.
Colorado Association of Realtors
Colorado Association of Realtors, Market Data, May 2018 (most recent available)
Median Rent for all Apartments
The median rent for new lease on a 2
bedroom, 2 bathroom apartment was
$1,349
in Q4 of 2017.
A renter household would need to earn
$53,961 to qualify to rent.
Rental rates for all apartments in Fort Collins/Loveland area via the Colorado Statewide Multifamily Rental and Vacancy Survey.
Reports available from https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/dola/vacancy-rent-surveys.
Affordability calculation uses 30% of gross income as standard.
$350K
$376K
$365K
$357K
$382K
$384K
$370K
$370K
$360K
$380K
$381K
$385K
$388K
$402K
$405K
$401K
$415K
$1,214
$1,264
$1,306 $1,307 $1,288
2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4
Median Apartment Rent (All Types)
(Fort Collins/Loveland)
8
Services for Seniors,
Veterans and Children
SOCIAL SERVICES, INCLUDING SENIORS, VETERANS AND CHILDREN
Assisting Families with TANF and SNAP
Mapped data from Larimer County Department of Human Services
Colorado Works/Temporary
Assistance to Needy Families
(TANF) is a federal program that
provides cash assistance to
qualifying families of at least one
parent and one child who are
living in extreme poverty while
they are preparing for, looking
for and/or maintaining
employment.
The Supplemental Nutrition
Assistance Program (SNAP)
provides food assistance to
families near or below poverty.
2018 Larimer County Monthly Gross (pre-tax) Income
Limits for SNAP and TANF for families of 4 or smaller
Family Size
1 2 3 4
Food Assistance (SNAP) $1307 $1760 $2213 $2655
TANF (for a single parent family) $253 $331 $421 $510
https://www.larimer.org/sites/default/files/uploads/2018/income_limits01.01.18_1.pdf
9
Services for Seniors,
Veterans and Children
Larimer County has the 6th Largest Veteran population of the Colorado counties.
Last year Larimer County Veterans were paid $147,445,000.
$77,171,000 in Disability/Pension
$46,265,000 in Medical Care
$21,971,000 in Education
$8,022,000 in Unique/Indemnities
Charts show top 10 counties for veteran population in 2017, from U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.
Larimer County Veteran Benefits Statistics from Larimer County Veteran Services
A 2017 survey of seniors living in rural areas of Larimer County discovered that almost three out of
tens seniors would not continue to live where they are if they were no longer able to drive.
Larimer County Senior Transportation Needs Assessment, prepared by Fehr and Peers for Larimer County Office on Aging, July 2017.
99,851
43,972
38,316
32,035
28,786
23,059
19,765
17,174
14,578
14,255
EL PASO
ARAPAHOE
JEFFERSON
DENVER
ADAMS
LARIMER
DOUGLAS
WELD
PUEBLO
BOULDER
Veteran Population by County (2017)
25%
22%
21%
29%
24%
27%
17%
28%
39%
17%
EL PASO
ARAPAHOE
JEFFERSON
DENVER
ADAMS
LARIMER
DOUGLAS
WELD
PUEBLO
BOULDER
% of Veterans Who
Received Care at a VA
Health Facility (2017)
10
Emergency Management
(Fire and Flood Prevention/Mitigation)
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (FIRE AND FLOOD PREVENTION/MITIGATION)
2017 Flood and Wildfire Mitigation Accomplishments
• Community Education Signs in the High Park Burn Area regarding the risks of Wildfire
• Community Education Signs and Events in the Big Thompson and Little Thompson Canyons regarding the
risks of flash flooding along our river systems
• Approval by the Board of Commissioners to fully implement a Stream Monitoring System countywide along
all major waterways
• Partnered with the Colorado Department of Local Affairs on the development of a Planning for Hazards
Guide for local land use planners to outline various mechanisms for mitigation.
• Review and Revision of Larimer County Building, Fire and Land Use Codes to ensure mitigation measures are
included and effective
• Partnered with the Big Thompson Conservation District and the Natural Resource Conservation Service on a
Healthy Forest Initiative Pilot Project at MacGregor Ranch to decrease the risk of wildfire in the area
Emergency Management Tools Created
• Cross-Jurisdictional Damage Assessment Tool created to identify, track, and report damages following
emergencies and disasters
• Responder Atlas created to provide emergency personnel with a hard-copy guidebook of Larimer County
• In partnership with the Department of Homeland Security, Idaho National Labs, and the City of Fort Collins, a
tool was developed to identify critical infrastructure while determining redundant systems and
interdependencies.
• Asset Database created to quickly locate, order and track supplies, materials and resources during
emergencies and disasters.
• Partner Database created with 24/7 contact information for all critical infrastructure, emergency responders,
emergency stakeholders and local, state and federal partners.
Additions to the Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan
• Evacuation and Re-Entry Plan – details how Larimer County will ensure the orderly evacuation of community
members and visitors during emergency events
• Public Information Management Plan – details how Larimer County will communicate with the public, using
various channels, to ensure adequate and accurate information is disseminated
• Emergency Alert and Warning Plan –details the tools, resources, and personnel involved in sending
emergency alerts and warnings to the public
• Continuity of Government and Operations Plan – details how Larimer County will ensure operations continue
without disruption during emergencies and disasters
Larimer County Office of Emergency Management, 2017 Year in Review.
11
Broadband Service
Access in Rural Areas
BROADBAND SERVICE ACCESS IN RURAL AREAS
Unincorporated Larimer County internet coverage: download speeds of 3 Mbps or greater.
Data Source: Colorado Broadband Office June 30, 2017
Unincorporated Larimer County broadband coverage: download speeds of 25 Mbps or greater.
Data Source: Colorado Broadband Office June 30, 2017
no
56%
already
have
33%
plan to start
11%
44%
Rural Larimer Broadband Survey Respondents
Who Own or Plan to Start a Home-Based
Business
3% 4%
18%
75%
not at all
important
somewhat
unimportant
somewhat
important
very important
Importance of High-Speed Internet to
Respondents Existing or Planned Home-Based
Business
12
Law Enforcement
and Services
ENHANCING LAW ENFORCEMENT AND SERVICES
The jail was designed to house up to 450 inmates.
Additional beds were added between 2014 and 2015.
Its current capacity (beds) is 617.
The target operational capacity is 500.
On 7/9/2018, the population was 615.
The Incarceration rate per 100,000 residents
age 18+ for Colorado was 740 in 2016.
Bureau of Justice Statistics, Correctional Population in
the United States.
Statistics provided by the Larimer County District Attorney’s Office and Larimer County Criminal Justice Services
477 461 456 473 461 454 449
435 483
545 584
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Average Daily Population,
Larimer County Jail
54% 51% 52%
59% 59% 62%
39% 38% 36%
32% 31% 30%
8% 10% 11% 10% 10%
8%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Average Population By Type,
Larimer County Jail
Pretrial Sentenced Hold
200
191
185
180
170
184
203
213
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
LC Incarceration Rate per 100,000
Adult Population
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2005 2010 2015
Homeless/Transient/Shelter Population
(Bookings per Person) 2005 – 2017
Bookings People
115 140
159
13
Employment and Workforce
(training and placement)
7.6%
2.4%
9.6%
4.4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Annual Average Unemployment Rate Larimer County
Colorado
United States
EMPLOYMENT AND WORKFORCE (TRAINING AND PLACEMENT)
Jobs by Industry
Larimer County has a unique strength in the Government sector due to the strong public education
systems and public hospital facilities in our county.
Larimer County has a relatively diverse range of industry strengths. Different industries contribute to
our local economy in different ways that are all valuable: by providing jobs, providing vital services
and bringing money into our region through the sale of products or services.
U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment follows the national trend, but is generally lower than the U.S. or Colorado as a whole.
14
Employment and Workforce
(training and placement)
Economic and Workforce Development
Larimer County Economic and Workforce Development (LCEWD) merged the former Workforce
Center with the Economic Development Department. The LCEWD is a partner of the American Job
Center Network and Colorado’s workforce system and the workforce activities of the LCEWD
primarily use funding originating as block grants from federal sources to provide a range of
employment and training services that help Larimer residents find work and Larimer employers find
employees.
LCEWD supported
142 youths
in obtaining their
High School Equivalency
over the past 3 program years
Larimer County Economic and Workforce Development (LCEWD) was able to help 210 customers
receive support and training toward a credential in one of 110 unique occupations that address
Northern Colorado employer needs from July 1, 2016 through June 30, 2017.
Word cloud with all occupations for which customers received training.
Larger values represent a larger number of participants receiving training for a credential for that occupation.
LCEWD provided 260 work-based learning opportunities that placed customers in temporary work
experiences or internships that helped them build vital job skills while earning income and providing
value to a local employer.
As part of the American Job Center Network, the federal funding that LCEWD uses to provide job seeker services leads to a program year
(PY) that runs July – June each year. PY2016 ended June 30, 2017 and PY 2017 ended June 30 2018.
Not all service statistics from PY2017 have been finalized at this date.
45 47
50
PY2015
(July '15 - June '16)
PY2016 PY2017
# of Youth Earning their High School Equivalency
via LCEWD CareerRise Team
195
2014 2015 2016 2017
Average Count of Homeless/
Transient/Shelter Population in
Larimer County Jail
1840
2262
2878
2712
585
1116
1748
1712
33
58
84
25
2014
2015
2016
2017
Felony Drug Case Filings
Felony Marijuana
All Felony Drug Cases
All Felonies
1997
1999
2000
2002
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Structurally Deficient Bridges in Larimer County, by year
Regulation/ code changes
needed as a result of
the Comp Plan
The projected growth rate
impact on County resources
Sustainable growth
HEALTH CARE (PHYSICAL)
Access to local medical clinics in
rural areas
Adequate health and human
services
Affordable healthcare
Health
Healthcare accessibility
Healthcare needs
INFRASTRUCTURE
Infrastructure
Infrastructure improvements,
maintenance, and additions
Infrastructure in support of
employment growth
Infrastructure (Modified from
Mtn. Resilience plan)
PROTECTING OPEN
AREAS/ENVIRONMENT
Environmental protection of
public lands
Open space and trails
Preservation of open space
TRANSPORTATION/ROADS
Joint vision of I-25 and 392
Economic development
Multi-modal transportation and
mobility choices
Public transportation
Road & bridge infrastructure
Roads
Road improvements
Transportation (7)
Transportation on I-25 (2)
OTHER
Affordable childcare
Aging population
Broadband to rural areas
Crime
Criminal Justice
Cybersecurity/security
Emergency services
Encouraging citizen
responsibility/productivity
Energy
Poverty
Public safety (2)
Reimbursements from the State
for Community Corrections
Resource management
Social (2)
Stop broadband
Wildfire risk
Sheldon Rosenkrance, Estes Park R3 Schools
Kristin Sheeran, 8th Judicial Court
Justin Smith, Larimer County Sheriff
David Slivken, Poudre River Library District
Lisa Thieme, Larimer County Assessor's Office
Zach Thode, Larimer County Agricultural
Advisory Board
James Thompson, Office of U.S. Senator Michael
Bennet
Wade Troxell, City of Fort Collins Mayor
Tracy Wendt, Big Thompson Watershed
Coalition
Dr. James Wilkerson, Larimer County Coroner
Brad Wind, Northern Water
Stephen Yurash, Larimer County Board of Health