HomeMy WebLinkAboutMemo - Mail Packet - 2/14/2013 (9)/"1¢
Utilities — Energy Board
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Fort Collins
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Fort Collins, CO 80522
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MEMORANDUM
TO: Mayor Weitkunat and Councilmembers
FROM: Greg Behm, Chair, Energy Board
CC: Darin Atteberry, City Manager
Brian Janonis, Utilities Director
Bruce Hendee, Chief Sustainability Officer
Steve Catanach, Light and Power Operations Manager
DATE: February 7, 2013
SUBJECT: Recommendation to Review Fort Collins' Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals
The state of scientific knowledge and discourse has advanced significantly since 2008 when City
Council adopted its greenhouse gas reduction goals and Climate Action Plan. These findings
increase the urgency of taking action and make the case that acting sooner will be significantly
more cost effective. Several of these key findings are outlined in Attachment A. The Energy
Board recommends that City Council initiate a review of the community's greenhouse gas
reduction goals and supporting plans in 2013, with the intent of moving toward more aggressive
goals. Doing so will:
• proactively work to engender a more economically efficient, successfiil, and resilient
community,
• renew our commitment to reduce the impact of the Fort Collins community on global
climate change, and
• optimize the discussions regarding the Energy Policy review and associated carbon goals.
The Energy Board is prepared to take up this question as part of its 2013 work plan (see
Attachment B). We recommend that other Boards and Commissions, staff members, and the
larger community also be engaged in this process. Please contact me if you have any questions
or want additional detail on the recommendation. Thank you for the opportunity to provide
input.
F Collins Energy Board
Greg Behm, Chair
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Attachment A - Post 2008 Climate Change Findings and Predictions
The Energy Information Administration reported that 2011 global CO2 emissions from fossil-
fitel combustion reached a record high of 31.6 gigatonnes (GI), representing a 3.2% increase over
2010 levels. (However. 2011 CO2 emissions in the U.S. fell by 92 Mt, or 1.7% compared to 2010
levels.)'
2012 was the warmest year on record for the contiguous United States. The average temperature
was 55.3 'F, 3.2'F above the 20th century average, and 1.0°F above 1998, the previous warmest
year. July 2012 was hottest month ever observed for the contiguous U.S. and 2012 was the
second most (climate) extreme year on record for the nation.'
One third of the nation's population experienced 10 or more days of suns ner temps above 100'F.
in 2012.'
in 2012, more than 40,000 daily heat records were broken nationwide, compared to 25,000 daily
records broken in June of 201 I .'
For the first time recently, scientific studies have been able to make strong statistical links
between climate change and certain extreme weather events. For example, The UK's Guardian
reported on July 10, 2012, that last year's record warm November in the UK, the second hottest
since records began in 1659, was at least 60 times more likely to happen because of climate
change than owing to natural variations in the earth s weather systems.'
A special report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in
November 2011 predicted that global warning will cause more dangerous and "unprecedented
extreme weather" in the future.`
A 2012 report by the Natural Resources Defense Council indicates that rising temperatures
driven by unabated climate change will increase the number of life -threatening excessive heat
events, resulting in thousands of additional heat -related premature deaths each year, with a
cumulative toll of approximately 33,000 additional heat -related deaths by mid-century in these
cities, and more than 150,000 additional heat -related deaths by the century's end
The health costs associated with six climate change —related events that struck the United States
between 2000 and 2009 exceeded $14 billion, with 95 percent due to the value of lives lost
prematurely. Actual health care costs were an estimated $740 million.' The future health costs
associated with predicted climate change —related events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and
floods are projected to be enormous.
' htto://www.ica.ore/ncwsroomandevents/news/20121mav/name.27216,en.btml
` http://ww�A'.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/
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The draft National Climate Assessment Report was released in January 2013. Key findings include:
Human -induced increases in atmospheric levels of heat -trapping gases are the main cause of
observed climate change over the past 50 years. The "fingerprints" of human -induced change
also have been identified in many other aspects of the climate system, including changes in
ocean heat content, precipitation, atmospheric moisture, and Arctic sea ice.
Past emissions of heat -trapping gases have already committed the world to a certain amount
of future climate change. Mow much more the climate will change depends on future
emissions and the sensitivity of the climate system to those emissions.
The "Letter to the American People", drafted by members of the National Climate
Assessment and Development Advisory Committee to accompany the draft report states:,
"Climate change, once considered an issuefcrr a distantfuture, has ntoved,firmly
into the present. This report of the National Climate Assessment and
Development Advisory Committee concludes that the evidence.for a changing
climate has strengthened considerably since the last National Climate Assessment
report, written in 2009. Many more impacts of human -caused climate change
have now been observed"
President Obama, in his inaugural address on January 21, 2013 said,
"We, the people, still believe that our obligations as Americans are not just to ourselves,
bad to all posterity. We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the
failure to do so would betray our children and future generations. Some may still deny
the overwhelmingjudgment gfscience, but none can avoid the devastating impact of
raging.fres, and crippling drought, and more powerful storms. The path towards
sustainable energy sources will be long and sometimes difficult. But American cannot
resist this transition. We. must lead it.i'
The world could avoid much of the damaging effects of climate change this century if
greenhouse gas emissions are curbed more sharply, according to a study published in 2012 in
Nature Climate Change.'"
Limiting climate change to target levels will become much more difficult to achieve, and more
expensive, if action is not taken soon, according to a new analysis from IIASA, ETH Zurich, and
NCAR. The paper, published in Nature Climate Change, explores technological, policy, and
social changes that would need to take place in the near term in order to keep global average
9 Source:
� ° Amell N.W., et. al.. A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change. 2013. Nature
Climate Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate1793 (See
httn:/iwww.nat=.com nclimate/ioumallvaoo/nwrtenitftdUnclimatel793.html I'or absnad and
htm /twww reuters cottt/aniciet2013/01/13/us-em%ionsclimate-idUSBRF90C0F120130113 for nutunary)
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temperature from rising above 2°C, a target supported by more than 190 countries as a global
limit to avoid dangerous climate change."
A number of leading communities and countries have elected to set long term (i.e. 2050) goals to
achieve carbon neutrality, often along with interim short and mid-term goals and source- specific
goals to guide their way. Seattle, WA, Davis, CA, Norway and Costa Rica are among the
entities that have established carbon neutral goals. The entire European Union has set a goal to
reduce emission 85-90% below 1990 levels by 2050, in light of scientific consensus that at least
that level of reduction is now needed to avoid the worst catastrophic impact of climate change.
� � Rogelj. J., D.L. McCollum, B.C. O'Neill, and K. Riahi. 2012. 2020 emissions levels required to limit wamring to
below 2 deg C. Nature Climate Change. doi: 10. 1 038/NCLIMAI'Et 758 (See
htto://wtivw.curekalert.orgtpub releases/2012-12/iifa-nccl21312 nhn for summary.)
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Attachment B - Energy Board Rationale For Action
The Fort Collins Energy Board's direction based on Energy Board Ordinance No. 098, 2011
recognizes the Energy Board's role towards advising City Council on the development and
implementation of the City's Energy Policy as well as on policies that address energy
conservation and efficiency and carbon reduction. Specifically:
Council needs visionary and innovation advice regarding the connnunity's energy future as it
relates to:
• City Plan [ Fort Collins goals for a sustainable community (201 1) ]
• Fort Collins Climate Action Plan (2008)
• Energy Policy (2009)
• Green Building Program (2011)
During 2013, the Energy Board intends to work with City staff to recommend updates to the
City's 2009 Energy Policy, per our 2013 Work Plan. Because the Energy Policy and Climate
Action Plan (CAP) are so closely linked, the Energy Board has a great interest in the
community's carbon goals and CAP as well.
Resolution 2008-051that established Fort Collins community carbon goals states:
Section 7. That the City Council hereby recognizes that new data, scientirc.rndings,
mitigation technologies, and quantification methodologies may emerge over time and
thatfuture Councils may choose to update the comnruniry) greenhouse gas goal to tare
into account evolving science, technology or other opportunities.
As with the State of Colorado's carbon goals, Fort Collins' community 2050 carbon goal was
established based on scientific assessments about the level of reduction necessary to avert the
worst impacts of climate change, while the 2020 goal was based on a potentially achievable
objective. The state of scientific knowledge and discourse has advanced significantly since
2008 when City Council adopted the community carbon goals and CAP. These findings increase
the urgency of taking action and make the case that acting sooner will be significantly more cost
effective.