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HomeMy WebLinkAboutMemo - Mail Packet - 02/11/2025 - Memorandum from Spencer Smith and Kaley Zeisel re January 2, 2025 Council Finance Committee Follow Up Transfort/Dial-A-Ride 250 North Mason Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 Engineering 281 North College Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 WORK SESSION MEMORANDUM Date: February 5, 2025 To: Council Finance Committee Through: Kelly DiMartino, City Manager Tyler Marr, Deputy City Manager Caryn Champine, Director, Planning, Development and Transportation Drew Brooks, Deputy Director, Planning, Development and Transportation From: Spencer Smith, Special Project Manager, Engineering Kaley Zeisel, Director, Transfort Subject: January 2, 2025 Council Finance Committee Follow Up BOTTOM LINE The purpose of this memo is to provide follow-up to questions that were raised during the Council Finance Committee meeting on January 2, 2025, regarding the MAX Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system and planned West Elizabeth BRT. FOLLOW-UP ITEMS 1. What is our current estimate of final costs for West Elizabeth? (include all design, construction costs). These costs are based on the 60% design plans and subject to change as we progress through 100% design. Capital Costs – West Elizabeth Corridor Cost Category Cost Estimate Capital Construction $56,845,911 Right of Way Acquisition $3,100,072 Vehicles and Vehicle Infrastructure $13,738,638 Design & Construction Management $15,704,892 Contingency $9,117,730 Total Estimated Capital Cost $98,507,243 Capital Costs – Funding Source Breakdown Funding Source Amount Funding Source Status MMOF (state funds) – Design Work to date $1,982,248 Committed Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 Transfort/Dial-A-Ride 250 North Mason Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 Engineering 281 North College Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 City Local match – Design work to date $1,047,928 $1,016,600 Committed Pending Appropriation CSU – Design work to date $991,124 Committed FTA CIG Small Starts* (remaining capital) $60,755,073 TBD Remaining Local Match** $32,714,270 TBD Total Estimated Funding $98,507,243 *The MAX BRT project was funded with approximately 80% federal funds under the same Capital Investment Grant (CIG) program. However, the program has become more oversubscribed since MAX was implemented, and FTA generally does not fund new projects at the same high level of federal participation. **Conversations between City executive leadership and CSU executive leadership are ongoing as to future CSU contributions. Several scenarios have been developed for consideration. Operational Cost Estimate – West Elizabeth Corridor Once the West Elizabeth BRT is implemented, other route alignment changes will go into effect. The operational cost estimate includes all route alignment adjustments in order to provide a comprehensive view of estimated costs in the corridor. These costs include changes to Routes 2, 3, 31, 32, and 7. 2019 Baseline (Existing) (2019 $) Future BRT Service (2019 $) Future BRT Service (adjusted for inflation, 2028 $) $3,181,000 $5,000,000 $6,170,000 Capital Costs – Foothills Transit Station (RAISE project) Cost Category Cost Estimate Capital Construction $8,411,561 Right of Way Acquisition $1,114,616 Design & Construction Management $1,388,630 Contingency $4,720,127* Total Estimated Capital Cost $15,634,934** *Contingency reflects unknowns in future Foothills Transit Station design that need to be resolved between 60% design and design completion (detention pond design, power Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 Transfort/Dial-A-Ride 250 North Mason Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 Engineering 281 North College Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 supply source, existing utility conflicts). As these design issues are resolved, the contingency estimate will be adjusted. **Estimated capital cost is based on 60% design and may increase or decrease as the design nears completion. Capital Costs – Funding Source Breakdown Funding Source Amount Funding Source Status CSU – Land In-Kind Match ~$800,000 Planned (final value unknown until appraisal is complete) City Local match (2050 Sales Tax) $600,000 $400,041 Appropriated through 25/26 BFO process Pending Appropriation RAISE (Federal Funds) $10,700,000 Awarded/Appropriated CDOT FASTER (State Funds) $400,000 Awarded/Appropriated MMOF (State Funds) $317,669 Application Pending Total Funding $13,217,710* *When construction costs are more clearly defined as design is completed, additional funding may be required, or the project will be reduced in scope to meet the current funding availability. Operational Cost Estimate – Foothills Transit Station Operational costs for the transit station are still being developed and will depend on a variety of factors:  Intergovernmental Agreement (IGA) with CSU  Estimates for fuel costs (i.e. On Route Charging) vary based on make/model of vehicles that are deployed as well as load requirements and time-of-day demand charges. More information will be known as design work continues.  Remaining maintenance costs include elements such as snow removal, other electrical demand, and regular maintenance/cleaning costs associated with the station shelters and employee restroom. 2. Was there a holistic analysis completed to determine the effectiveness of MAX? Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 Transfort/Dial-A-Ride 250 North Mason Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 Engineering 281 North College Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 Consistent with Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Capital Investment Grant (CIG) Small Starts funding program requirements, a comprehensive Before and After Study was completed for the MAX BRT project. This study examined several key categories of the project, comparing the existing conditions of the corridor prior to implementing MAX with the final outcome. These project areas included physical scope, capital cost, transit service, operating and maintenance costs, ridership, and economic impacts. A summary of each area is provided below, and the full study is attached for reference. Physical Scope Implementation of MAX included a 5-mile long BRT Corridor with two separate sections of fixed guideway built in reserved Right of Way, and improvements to arterial streets where the BRT operates in mixed-traffic. Additionally, 5 Park and Ride lots were added, new BRT stations along the corridor, a new station at the existing Downtown Transit Station, and a new transit station was constructed at the southern end of the terminus (South Transit Center). Prior to implementation of MAX, Howes Street and Mason Street were both one-way streets and were converted to two-way streets. Capital Cost The final project cost was $83.1M in YOE dollars, with MAX service beginning in May 2014. The final project costs were $3.7M below an earlier estimated cost of $86.8M. The final costs can be broken down by the following funding sources: Funding Source Approximate Amounts Federal Funds (Capital Investment Grant, Small Starts program) ~68M State Funds ~9M Local Matching funds, includes in-kind contributions ~6M Transit Services Prior to MAX’s launch in 2014, to provide north-south service to the community in the College Avenue corridor, Transfort operated Route 1 on College and Route 15 between Colorado State University and Downtown. MAX replaced both of these routes to provide seamless and frequent service between the South Transit Center and Downtown Fort Collins. In addition to MAX, two routes were added (Route 12 and Around the Horn) and four were modified (Routes 5, 6, 7, 16) to provide the most optimal transfer points. In all, Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 Transfort/Dial-A-Ride 250 North Mason Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 Engineering 281 North College Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 Transfort average weekday revenue miles increased by 1,605 miles after MAX was implemented. Operating and Maintenance Costs Operating and maintenance costs were somewhat underestimated during the Project Development phase. In 2013, first year operating costs for 2015 were estimated at $2.2M; however, the first full year of operating costs were closer to $3M. A few reasons were provided for the discrepancy, first, snow removal and street maintenance costs were significantly underestimated, and staffing costs for additional dispatchers were not considered in initial estimates. In 2019, MAX operating costs were approximately $3.4M, an increase of about 13% from 2015, consistent with inflation rates over the time period from 2015 to 2019, Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 Transfort/Dial-A-Ride 250 North Mason Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 Engineering 281 North College Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 according to historical Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Based on 2019 ridership figures and operating cost per rider, MAX was more efficient compared with the remainder of the system, costing approximately $2.35/rider, compared with $4.06 per rider across the rest of the Transfort system. MAX service was somewhat more expensive to operate when looking at cost/mile ($10.83 per revenue mile) compared to the remainder of the system ($9.39 per revenue mile) but not significantly so. By 2023, operating at reduced service levels due to the COVID-19 pandemic and staffing shortages, MAX operating costs fell to just below $3M total annually, with cost per rider at approximately $6.62. The sharp decrease in ridership can be directly attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and reduced hours of operation and frequency of MAX service. Transfort anticipates fully restoring MAX service levels by the end of 2025 and with increased frequencies a strong rebound in ridership on MAX is expected. For example, ridership doubled during the Fall 2024 semester when Horn frequencies were restored to their pre-pandemic levels (10-minute frequency) from the reduced service that had been operating for several years (20-minute frequencies). Ridership The introduction of MAX to the Transfort system increased average daily boardings along the corridor from 1666 in the Spring of 2014 to 5296 in the Fall of 2017. This growth has been attributed as 830 new rides from the first year of service, 750 rides from route maturation, and 2050 rides attributable to external forces that dramatically changed rider behavior across all routes in the system, particularly for those traveling on routes connected to CSU: changes in CSU parking policies and availability, pre-paid fees for CSU students and faculty, and system improvements like real-time bus tracking. See chart below. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 Transfort/Dial-A-Ride 250 North Mason Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 Engineering 281 North College Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 A comprehensive look at Transfort ridership over a ten year period can be found in the graph below. Prior to implementing MAX service in 2014, annual Transfort ridership had been hovering around 2M riders. Two years after MAX service launched, ridership system wide doubled to over 4M riders annually and was continuing to climb until 2020 when the COVID pandemic drastically reduced ridership. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 Transfort/Dial-A-Ride 250 North Mason Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 Engineering 281 North College Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 Economic Impacts A total of 845 new housing units and over 301,000sqft of new commercial space were constructed along the 5-mile Mason Corridor between 2014 and 2018. The total construction value of these projects was $161M. Other development activities adjacent to the Mason Corridor influenced the Foothills mall redevelopment, extensive multi- family development in Downtown, on North College and around CSU’s campus. For comparison, while the boundaries of measurement are different, so not perfectly comparable, the Midtown Corridor Market Analysis completed in 2010 projected the potential for up to 590,000sqft of new retail establishments and up to 1,580 new medium to high density housing units in the Midtown Corridor by 2030. According to the MAX Before and After Study, many developers cited the construction of MAX as a major factor in their decision to build along the Mason Corridor. The City began promoting the idea of Transit Oriented Development (TOD) with the adoption of a TOD zoning overlay in 2007, see figure below. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 Transfort/Dial-A-Ride 250 North Mason Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 Engineering 281 North College Street Fort Collins, CO 80524 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 City of Fort Collins Mason Corridor Bus Rapid Transit Project (MAX) Before & After Study July 31, 2019 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page i Table of Contents 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Summary.................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Before & After Study Purpose .................................................................................................. 2 2 Physical scope .................................................................................................................................. 3 2.1 Actual Scope of the As-Built Project ......................................................................................... 3 2.2 Accuracy of the Physical Scope Anticipated at Each Milestone ................................................. 5 2.2.1 Summary of Scope at Each Project Milestone ................................................................... 5 2.2.2 At Entry into Project Development (PD) ............................................................................ 6 2.2.3 At Award of the PCGA ....................................................................................................... 7 2.3 Lessons Learned ....................................................................................................................... 7 3 Capital cost ...................................................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Actual capital costs ................................................................................................................... 8 3.2 Accuracy of the predicted costs at each milestone ................................................................. 10 3.2.1 At Entry into Project Development (PD) .......................................................................... 13 3.2.2 At Award of the PCGA ..................................................................................................... 14 3.3 Lessons learned...................................................................................................................... 14 4 Transit Service ............................................................................................................................... 14 4.1 Actual transit services after project opening........................................................................... 14 4.2 Accuracy of the predicted service plans at each milestone ..................................................... 18 5 Operating and Maintenance Costs ................................................................................................. 20 5.1 Actual O&M costs after project opening ................................................................................. 20 5.2 Predicted Vs. Actual O&M costs after project opening ........................................................... 20 6 Ridership ....................................................................................................................................... 21 6.1 Actual Ridership Impacts ........................................................................................................ 21 6.1.1 Actual Ridership on the Project....................................................................................... 21 6.1.2 Characteristics of Trips on the Project............................................................................. 25 6.1.3 Change in Ridership ........................................................................................................ 26 6.2 Accuracy of Opening Year Ridership Predictions ..................................................................... 28 7 Economic Impacts .......................................................................................................................... 30 List of Figures Figure 1 Project Map ......................................................................................................................... 2 Figure 2 MAX BRT Service ................................................................................................................ 16 Figure 3 Before-and-After Transit Service in the Project Corridor ..................................................... 18 Figure 4 Average Weekday Boardings for Fall and Spring, 2012 through 2017 .................................. 22 Figure 5 Districts .............................................................................................................................. 26 Figure 6 Comparison of Forecasts and Observed Boardings in the Project Corridor .......................... 28 Figure B-1. Expanded Districts – Regional .............................................................................................. 34 Figure B-2. Expanded Districts – Fort Collins .......................................................................................... 35 List of Tables Table 1 Milestone Schedule .................................................................................................................. 1 Table 2 Comparison of Project Scope at Each Project Milestone ........................................................... 5 Table 3 Project Actual Costs ................................................................................................................. 9 Table 4 Actual and Predicted Total Capital Costs................................................................................. 10 Table 5 Actual Change in Construction Costs ...................................................................................... 11 Table 6 Actual and Predicted Expenditures by SCC Converted to Constant PCGA-Year (2010) Dollars . 12 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page ii Table 7 Actual MAX BRT Service Headways......................................................................................... 14 Table 8 Actual MAX BRT Service Bus Connections ............................................................................... 15 Table 9 Service Changes Due to MAX BRT Implementation ................................................................. 17 Table 10 Changes in Service Revenue Miles and Revenue Hours ....................................................... 17 Table 11 Predicted versus Actual Run Times for Schedule Timepoints (in Minutes) ........................... 19 Table 12 Predicted versus Actual Speeds for Schedule Timepoints (in Miles per Hour)...................... 19 Table 13 Predicted vs. Actual O&M Costs ......................................................................................... 21 Table 14 Average Weekday Boardings for Fall and Spring, 2012 through 2017 .................................. 22 Table 15 Historical Demographic, Enrollment and Transit Service Data ............................................. 24 Table 16 Historical CSU Parking Data ................................................................................................ 24 Table 17 2017 District-to-District Project Linked Trips in P-A Format ................................................. 25 Table 18 District-to-District Corridor Linked Trips in P-A Format, Before and After ............................ 27 Table 19 Corridor Linked Trips by Trip Purpose ................................................................................. 27 Table 20 Corridor Linked Trips by Access Mode ................................................................................ 27 Table 21 Corridor Linked Trips by Auto Availability ........................................................................... 28 Table 22 Assessed Property Value Change Between 2014 - 2018 ...................................................... 31 Table A-1. Growth in Annual Transfort Ridership, 2010 to 2017 ............................................................. 33 Table B-1. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project: Total ............................................................. 36 Table B-2. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Trip Purpose: Home-based Work ............... 37 Table B-3. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Trip Purpose: Home-based University ........ 37 Table B-4. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Trip Purpose: Home-based Other .............. 38 Table B-5. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Trip Purpose: Non-home-based ................. 38 Table B-6. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Trip Purpose, for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only: Home-based Work ............................................................................................................... 39 Table B-7. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Trip Purpose, for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only: Home-based University ........................................................................................................ 39 Table B-8. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Trip Purpose, for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only: Home-based Other ............................................................................................................... 40 Table B-9. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Trip Purpose, for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only: Non home-based .................................................................................................................. 40 Table B-10. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Access Mode: Park & Ride ....................... 41 Table B-11. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Access Mode: Kiss & Ride ........................ 41 Table B-12. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Access Mode: Bus (Transfer) .................... 42 Table B-13. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Access Mode: Bike ................................... 42 Table B-14. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Access Mode: Walk .................................. 43 Table B-15. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability: 0 Autos ......................... 43 Table B-16. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability: 1 Auto .......................... 44 Table B-17. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability: 2 Autos ......................... 44 Table B-18. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability: 3 or More Autos ........... 45 Table B-19. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability, for CSU Students Only: 0 Autos..................................................................................................................................................... 45 Table B-20. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability, for CSU Faculty and Staff Only: 0 Autos ......................................................................................................................................... 46 Table B-21. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability, for CSU Students Only: 1 Auto 46 Table B-22. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability, for CSU Faculty and Staff Only: 1 Auto .......................................................................................................................................... 47 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page iii Table B-23. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability, for CSU Students Only: 2 Autos..................................................................................................................................................... 47 Table B-24. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability, for CSU Faculty and Staff Only: 2 Autos ......................................................................................................................................... 48 Table B-25. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability, for CSU Students Only: 3+ Autos..................................................................................................................................................... 48 Table B-26. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability, for CSU Faculty and Staff Only: 3+ Autos ....................................................................................................................................... 49 Table B-27. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Trip Purpose: Total ...................................... 49 Table B-28. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Trip Purpose: Home-based Work ................ 50 Table B-29. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Trip Purpose: Home-based University ......... 50 Table B-30. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Trip Purpose: Home-based Other ................ 51 Table B-31. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Trip Purpose: Non-home-based .................. 51 Table B-32. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Access Mode: Park & Ride ........................... 52 Table B-33. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Access Mode: Kiss & Ride ............................ 52 Table B-34. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Access Mode: Bus (Transfer) ....................... 53 Table B-35. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Access Mode: Bike ...................................... 53 Table B-36. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Access Mode: Walk ..................................... 54 Table B-37. 2017 Average Fall Weekday Daily Boardings........................................................................ 54 Table C-1. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor: Total ............................................................. 55 Table C-2. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Trip Purpose: Home-based Work .............. 55 Table C-3. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Trip Purpose: Home-based University ....... 56 Table C-4. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Trip Purpose: Home-based Other .............. 56 Table C-5. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Trip Purpose: Non-home-based ................ 57 Table C-6. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Trip Purpose, for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only: Home-based Work ............................................................................................................... 57 Table C-7. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Trip Purpose, for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only: Home-based University ........................................................................................................ 58 Table C-8. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Trip Purpose, for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only: Home-based Other ............................................................................................................... 58 Table C-9. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Trip Purpose, for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only: Non-home-based ................................................................................................................. 59 Table C-10. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Access Mode: Park & Ride ....................... 59 Table C-11. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Access Mode: Kiss & Ride ........................ 60 Table C-12. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Access Mode: Bus (Transfer) ................... 60 Table C-13. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Access Mode: Bike .................................. 61 Table C-14. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Access Mode: Walk ................................. 61 Table C-15. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability: 0 Autos ........................ 62 Table C-16. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability: 1 Auto ......................... 62 Table C-17. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability: 2 Autos ........................ 63 Table C-18. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability: 3 or More Autos .......... 63 Table C-19. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability, for CSU Students Only: 0 Autos..................................................................................................................................................... 64 Table C-20. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability, for CSU Faculty and Staff Only: 0 Autos ......................................................................................................................................... 64 Table C-21. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability, for CSU Students Only: 1 Auto 65 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page iv Table C-22. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability, for CSU Faculty and Staff Only: 1 Auto .......................................................................................................................................... 65 Table C-23. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability, for CSU Students Only: 2 Autos..................................................................................................................................................... 66 Table C-24. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability, for CSU Faculty and Staff Only: 2 Autos ......................................................................................................................................... 66 Table C-25. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability, for CSU Students Only: 3+ Autos..................................................................................................................................................... 67 Table C-26. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability, for CSU Faculty and Staff Only: 3+ Autos ....................................................................................................................................... 67 Table C-27. 2014 Average Fall Weekday Daily Boardings ........................................................................ 68 Table D-1. District-to-District Predicted Linked Trips on the Project: Total ............................................. 69 Table D-2. District-to-District Predicted Linked Trips on the Project: Home-based Work ........................ 69 Table D-3. District-to-District Predicted Linked Trips on the Project: Home-based University ................. 70 Table D-4. District-to-District Predicted Linked Trips on the Project: Home-based Other........................ 70 Table D-5. District-to-District Predicted Linked Trips on the Project: Non-home-based .......................... 71 Table D-6. District-to-District Predicted Linked Trips Systemwide: Total................................................. 71 List of Exhibits Exhibit A Table of Acronyms .............................................................................................................. 32 Exhibit B Ridership Appendices… ...................................................................................................... 33 Appendix A. Annual System Ridership ................................................................................................ 33 Appendix B. Actual Ridership, After Project Opening .......................................................................... 34 Appendix C. Actual Ridership, Before the Project ............................................................................... 55 Appendix D. Predicted Ridership ........................................................................................................ 69 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 1 1 Introduction 1.1 Summary The Mason Corridor Express (MAX)1 Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) project is an $86.83 million BRT project in the City of Fort Collins, Colorado (City). As shown in Figure 1, the MAX BRT project is a north-south BRT facility in the central core of the City. The MAX BRT is located just west of and parallel to College Avenue (US 287), one of the busiest arterials within the City and the entire North Front Range region. The project corridor extends from Maple Street in downtown Fort Collins south to approximately 0.25 miles south of Harmony Road. Along the entire length of the corridor, the BRT runs adjacent to existing BNSF Railway Company (BNSF) tracks. There is still active freight service on this track At varying locations, the BRT guideway is located on properties owned by the BNSF, the City, Colorado State University (CSU), and private landowners. Table 1 provides a brief chronology of the development of the project. In 2000, the City adopted the Mason Street Transportation Corridor Plan, which recommended implementing BRT service as the preferred alternative. There were several follow-up studies culminating in the preparation of an Environmental Assessment (EA) and Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI) in 2008. As desig n of the BRT progressed a Value Engineering (VE) study identified changes to the alignment not approved in the 2008 FONSI. To address the changes to the project scope due to the VE effort, an Environmental Reevaluation was prepared in 2010. The City’s Engineering Department led final design and in 2012 the City hired three major contractors, one to construct the BRT guideway and stations, including the related street improvements; a second to construct the expansion of the Transfort Maintenance Facility (TMF); and the third to construct the South Transit Center (STC). In addition, the City’s Transfort, Light & Power, Water, and Traffic departments had significant roles on the project. Railroad coordination with the BNSF occurred at two levels: (1) BNSF’s replacement of 1.5 miles of in street running freight track, which defined significant aspects of the scope of roadway reconfiguration along Mason Street where the BRT operates in-street, and (2) the more typical coordination of BRT guideway construction in and adjacent to the BNSF property. Table 1 Milestone Schedule October 2000 Mason Street Transportation Corridor Plan Adopted July 20, 2004 Mason Transportation Corridor Alternatives Analysis Report Complete November 20, 2007 Entry into Project Development (PD) May 31, 2008 Environmental Assessment Complete September 9, 2008 Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI) Issued March 2011 BNSF Railway (BNSF) Right-of-Way (ROW) Acquisition Complete December 21, 2010 FTA Concurrence and Approval, Environmental Re-evaluation November 2012 Design of the MAX BRT Complete May 21, 2012 Project Construction Grant Agreement (PCGA) signed June 2012 thru April 2014 Construction – through “Substantial Completion” May 12, 2014 Beginning of Revenue Service December 2017 Construction Completed 1 A list of acronyms and abbreviations is provided in Exhibit A. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 2 Figure 1 Project Map 1.2 Before & After Study Purpose At the time of the award of the PCGA for this project, Federal law (49 USC 5309(k)(2)(E)) required a Before- and-After Study (B&AS) for transit projects that received capital-grants from the Federal Transit Administration’s “New Starts” program. In response, as project sponsor and recipient of FTA grants for the project, Transfort has completed this study for the MAX BRT project. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 3 The purposes of the study are, first, to document the actual outcomes of the project and, second, to evaluate the accuracy of, and any lessons learned from, the predictions of those outcomes made during planning and development of the project. The study focuses on five project outcomes: physical scope, capital costs, transit service levels, operating and maintenance costs, and ridership. To measure the actual outcomes of the project, the study documents its as-built physical scope and capital costs and documents actual transit services, O&M costs, and ridership before and after the opening of the project. To examine the accuracy of the predicted outcomes for the project, the study compares the predictions to the actual outcomes, identifies any significant differences and the causes of those differences, and describes any lessons learned from the evaluation. 2 Physical scope 2.1 Actual Scope of the As-Built Project The primary components of the project in the 5-mile long BRT corridor are two segments of BRT guideway built in reserved right-of-way, improvements to arterial streets where the BRT route runs in mixed traffic, 5 Park-n-Ride lots, 7 BRT stations with pedestrian and bicycle access, 10 BRT curb-side stops, an additional stop at the northern terminus at the existing Downtown Transit Center (DTC), a new South Transit Center (STC) at the southern terminus of the BRT Line, and off-line upgrades to the existing Transfort Maintenance Facility (TMF). The project included the purchase of eight 60-foot, 3-door articulated buses to provide MAX BRT services. The BRT route operates on exclusive guideway for 2.9 miles, with the remaining 2.1 miles intermixed with street traffic on portions of McClelland Drive and Mason Street. Other than one short segment of a bus-only lanes at the intersection of Drake Road and McClelland Drive and at Laurel, there are no lane restrictions where the buses travel on City streets. 10 GUIDEWAY & TRACK ELEMENTS The BRT “Guideway” has different configurations along the alignment. Northbound from the South Transit Center (STC) the BRT route is in a newly constructed 24-foot wide dedicated roadway for approximately 1.5 miles. It transitions to in-street mixed-traffic running on McClelland drive for approximately 0.8 miles to the intersection with Drake Road. North of Drake, the BRT serv ice re-enters a dedicated guideway for approximately 1.4-miles to University Avenue. At University the dedicated guideway ends and the BRT route transitions to in-street mixed-traffic running for approximately 1.3 miles on Mason Street in the downtown area. At University, Mason Street is a two-lane road located to the east of the BNSF track. At Laurel Street (approximately 0.3 miles north of University) Mason transitions into a couplet configuration with the BNSF track centered between northbound and southbound lanes of traffic. The BRT route ends at the Downtown Transit Center. The total MAX BRT route length is 5.0 miles. Two bridge structures were constructed. One new structure carries the BRT guideway across Mail Creek and a reconstructed bridge structure at the Larimer Canal No. 2 (irrigation conveyance) to support the heavier loads imposed by BRT buses operating on McClelland Drive. Note: At the beginning of project construction, BNSF reconstructed approximately 1.5 miles of it track in Mason Street; this was a concurrent activity not included in the PCGA scope or cost. Due to the BNSF’s track reconstruction, Mason Street was reconfigured as part of the project to create a couplet configuration with the BNSF track in the center of the street between northbound and southbound traffic. 20 STATIONS, STOPS, TERMINALS, INTERMODAL Construction included platforms, station structures, conduit installation, platform finishes, station canopies, required ramps and railings, signage, and other elements for the BRT stations and stops. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 4 (Passenger communication devices at the stations are included in SCC 50.) BRT “stations” were constructed on the dedicated guideway segments. BRT “stops” were constructed along McClelland Drive and Mason Street. Station platforms were offset from the guideway centerline to address BNSF’s requirement that station platforms be outside the RR property. The BRT stops consisted of curb-side platforms on portions of the alignment along McClelland and Mason. The project reconstructed limited segments of existing sidewalk, and all the curb ramps along Mason Street to provide access to the BRT stops consistent with requirements of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). Stations/stops are as follows: • 7 BRT stations with pedestrian and bicycle access, on the BRT guideway. • 5 BRT curbside stops, (each stop has NB & SB platforms on opposite sides of the street, 10 platforms total) on the in-street running portions of the guideway • 1 stop at the existing Downtown Transit Center (DTC) and remodeling the passenger service desk to allow safe and secure processing of bus passes and passenger assistance. • 1 new transit center at the southern terminus (STC) of the BRT route with 11 bus bays (3 BRT bays, 8 city-bus bays). 30 SUPPORT FACILITIES: YARDS, SHOPS, ADMIN. BLDGS A 16,240 square-foot expansion of the existing Transfort Maintenance Facility (TMF) was constructed to provide parking for up to 24 35-foot and 40-foot buses from Transfort’s non-BRT fleet. This expansion allowed parked buses to be moved out of the bus maintenance areas in the existing TMF thus creating space for maneuvering, maintaining, and parking the new 60-foot articulated BRT buses. The improvements at the TMF also included site improvements to improve circulation and for a BRT bus operator training area, and expansion of the methane detection system needed because Transfort operates compressed natural gas (CNG) buses. 40 SITEWORK & SPECIAL CONDITIONS Roadway work on the in-street portions of the guideway consisted of new curb and gutter on both sides of the BNSF track on Mason street from Maple to Laurel as part of the conversion of Mason from a one- way street with the BNSF track in the center, to the two-way couplet configuration and paving repairs, curb/gutter/sidewalk improvements and striping along corridor. Additionally, five Park-n-Ride lots with 409 spaces were developed. The Park-n-Ride lot at the South Transit Center was built as part of the project, while the remainder were created by agreement with property owners to designate some spaces for transit in existing parking facilities. A new right-turn lane was constructed from northbound McClelland onto eastbound Drake to separate BRT operations right turn traffic movements. 50 SYSTEMS The project included construction/installation of the following: • Traffic and RR crossing signal improvements throughout the corridor. • Off bus fare collection systems consisting of one on-platform ticket vending machine (TVM) and ticket validators at every platform except at the STC where two TVMs are installed. • Operations Center /Bus Technology Upgrades • Passenger Communications 60 ROW, LAND, EXISTING IMPROVEMENTS The project included full and partial property acquisition, plus easement acquisition for constructing the BRT dedicated guideway on BNSF property and for shared parking at some park-n-rides. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 5 70 VEHICLES The project included purchase of six articulated, three-door, low-floor, CNG powered BRT buses. The buses have leveling capability to match the height of the BRT station and stop platforms as the passenger load changes. Transfort purchased 2 additional articulated BRT buses to allow the operational schedule to be met. These two additional buses were not included in the FFGA scope or costs. 2.2 Accuracy of the Physical Scope Anticipated at Each Milestone 2.2.1 Summary of Scope at Each Project Milestone Table 2 is organized by SCC. It summarizes the as-constructed project scope and the anticipated scope at entry into PD, and award of the PCGA, respectively. Section 2.1 above provides details on the As- constructed scope; Section 2.2 below provides details on the differences between the anticipated scope at each milestone. Table 2 Comparison of Project Scope at Each Project Milestone SCC Category As Constructed Differences from the As-constructed Scope Entry into PD Award of PCGA 10 GUIDEWAY & TRACK ELEMENTS (5 route miles) Total route length 5 miles, from Cherry Street to the north, to approximately 0.75 mile south of Harmony Road. • 2.9 miles exclusive BRT guideway • 2.1 miles intermixed with street traffic Total route length was the same, but • 3.4 miles exclusive BRT guideway, • 1.6 miles intermixed with street traffic. None 20 STATIONS, STOPS, TERMINALS, INTERMODAL (21 stations) Constructed 7 dedicated BRT stations in the dedicated guideway. Constructed BRT 10 cub-side platforms (Stops) at on-street running BRT portions of the alignment on McClelland and Mason Constructed one 2-bay stop at the existing Downtown Transit Center (DTC), Constructed new transit center at the southern terminus (STC) of the BRT System (3 BRT bays, 8 city-bus bays) Minor differences in station locations. None 30 SUPPORT FACILITIES: YARDS, SHOPS, ADMIN. BLDGS A 16,240 square-foot enclosed addition to the TMF for parking of non-BRT buses and development of a paved area for bus driver training An 8,000 sq ft open canopy addition to the TMF None 40 SITEWORK & SPECIAL CONDITIONS • Intersection improvements at BRT dedicated guideway crossings • 2.1 miles of roadway/curb/gutter/ sidewalk improvements. • 5 Park-n-Ride lots • 1.6 miles of roadway improvements. • 7 Park-n-Ride lots None Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 6 Table 2 Comparison of Project Scope at Each Project Milestone SCC Category As Constructed Differences from the As-constructed Scope Entry into PD Award of PCGA 50 SYSTEMS • Traffic and RR crossing signal improvements throughout the corridor • Off bus fare collection systems • Operations Center/Bus Technology • Passenger Communications at stations and on buses Scope not defined. Functional criteria for off-bus Fare Collection System and Passenger Communication Systems match the functionality of the as-built scope. None 60 ROW, LAND, EXISTING IMPROVEMENTS Full and partial property acquisition plus easement acquisition for constructing the BRT dedicated guideway on BNSF property and for shared parking at some park-n-rides, None None 70 VEHICLES (6 buses) 6 articulated, low-floor, CNG powered buses. The buses chosen met the design criteria defined at entry into PD. 2 additional articulated buses bought by Transfort to allow operational schedule to be met; these buses are not included in the PCGA project cost Did not include additional buses Did not include additional buses 2.2.2 At Entry into Project Development (PD) 10 GUIDEWAY & TRACK ELEMENTS At the entry into PD, the total route length was 5 miles, with the same northern and southern termini. However, the split of dedicated guideway to on-street operations was different than as constructed. • 3.4 miles of dedicated BRT guideway, gated at street intersections, from the South Transit Center to a point on McClelland 0.5 miles south of Drake Road and from Drake Road to University Avenue • 1.6 miles intermixed with street traffic on portions of McClelland Drive and Mason Street. The change in length of dedicated guideway occurred as result of a Value Engineering (VE) exercise. In order to mitigate the cost and maintenance issues associated with piping/bridging 0.5 miles of the Larimer Canal, the City relocated the BRT dedicated guideway tie-in location on McClelland approximately 0.25 of a mile to the south, resulting in the BRT corridor utilizing approximately 0.75 of a mile of McClelland Drive and avoiding the Larimer Canal altogether. The use of VE to identify capital cost savings in design after entry into PD is typical for many projects. 20 STATIONS, STOPS, TERMINALS, INTERMODAL The number of BRT stations, curbside stops, and the transit centers scoped at entry into PD were the same as the configuration at award of the PCGA. The only differences from the as-built project were that the Harmony station moved from the south side of the intersecting arterial roadway to the north side , the Horsetooth station relocated approximately 400 feet south (both changes occurred because of the Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 7 availability of parcels better suited for the project) and the Spring Creek station was reconfigured from a center platform configuration to a split-platform configuration due to ROW constraints. 30 SUPPORT FACILITIES: YARDS, SHOPS, ADMIN. BLDGS At Entry into PD the TMF expansion was to be a new 8,000 square foot canopy constructed on the north side of facility to accommodate Transfort’s existing (non-BRT) bus fleet. During design the scope grew to include a 16,240 square-foot enclosed building addition and development of a paved area for bus driver training on the north side of the TMF. The larger building was needed to accommodate storage of the 24 35-foot and 40-foot buses from Transfort’s non-BRT fleet. 40 SITEWORK & SPECIAL CONDITIONS The project’s scope for roadway improvements, intersection modifications, and the configuration of the dedicated guideway at Entry into PD was essentially the same as constructed. The exception being there was 0.25 miles more dedicated guideway and 0.25 miles less on-street running segments of the system on McClelland (modified as part of a VE exercise, as described in SCC 10 above). The project assumed that there would be Park-N-Ride lots along the corridor; however, no documentation could be located on their assumed number, sizes and locations at the entry into PD milestone. 50 SYSTEMS At entry into PD, communications design was a set of functional criteria. The criteria were largely implemented in both the design at award of the PCGA and in the as-constructed project. 60 ROW, LAND, EXISTING IMPROVEMENTS At entry into PD, the northern and southern termini of the MAX corridor were defined. There were minor differences in the limits of property acquisition anticipated due to the lower level of design development. 70 VEHICLES At PD-entry, the scope included the purchase of six 60-foot, 3-door, articulated buses for BRT service. During pre-revenue service testing it was determined that the end-to-end run time for BRT service was slightly longer than anticipated during planning, and that it was not feasible to use smaller from Transfort’s existing fleet to supplement the spare ratio. To ensure reliable BRT service, Transfort purchased 2 additional articulated BRT buses. Due to FTA grant management practices, these two additional buses were not included in either the FFGA project scope or costs. 2.2.3 At Award of the PCGA SCC’s 10-60 The project scope at the award of the PCGA was the same as the “as constructed” scope for SCC’s 10-60. 70 VEHICLES Six articulated 3-door buses were still assumed to be needed for BRT operations, two fewer than were purchased for BRT service. 2.3 Lessons Learned The anticipated scope of the constructed project stayed relatively unchanged throughout the planning, design and construction process. The planned scope was different from the as-designed/as-constructed project with the relocation of the transition from dedicated guideway to on-street operations on McClelland and minor changes to station locations and lane configurations. These types of changes typically occur through value engineering and design optimization processes as a design matures. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 8 The need for two additional buses to provide service is the most significant scope difference between the anticipated project scope and the as-constructed outcome. The original project Fleet Management Plan identified a 20% spare ratio for Transfort’s BRT service with the ability to utilize other fleet-wide vehicles to increase the spare ratio to 36%. This was assuming a 20-minute travel time with five peak vehicles and one dedicated spare. Once revenue service began, flaws in the Fleet Management Plan became apparent, as described below: • In mid-April 2014 (while MAX was in pre-revenue service) Transfort needed to finalize schedules for the summer bid period (May 10 – August 23), and many of the drivers were still averaging 30-minute travel times. Due to the slower than anticipated travel times seen in pre-revenue operations Transfort was forced to establish a 30-minute northbound and southbound travel time for the first published schedule to provide consistent service. • The slower than anticipated travel times can be attributed to two primary factors. The first is driver - related - initially drivers were slow to maneuver buses through stations and other constricted areas like the CSU campus. The second complication was related to a series of intersection issues that include signal priority at guideway/intersection interfaces and signal progression in mixed traffic settings. The intersection issues were estimated to cause approximately 3-4 minutes of additional travel time. • These issues have since been partially addressed so that one-way travel times now average 25 minutes, versus the 20-minute original projection and the 30-minute start of operations run-times. Through additional training and increased experience, drivers have improved their skills operating in the guideway and docking at stations. In addition, adjustments have been made to signal timing and new bus lane infrastructure has been added. • Supplementing MAX service with standard buses to increase the spare ratio to 36% turned out not to be realistic. Transfort believed that a spare ratio higher than 20% could be achieved using standard 30- to 40-foot Transfort buses. Smaller non-BRT vehicles were not adequate in meeting MAX service needs due to equipment not being designed for guideway use, the inability to accommodate the large passenger loads seen on MAX and the inability to accommodate bicycles on-board the bus. Thus, two additional 60’ buses were needed to sufficiently accommodate loads, provide efficient service and maintain an adequate spare ratio. 3 Capital cost This section documents the actual capital costs of the as-built project. It then evaluates the accuracy of the costs predicted at each milestone and identifies the causes of any differences between the predictions and the actual outcome. 3.1 Actual capital costs The project cost $82.37 million in YOE dollars spent over a two-year schedule with a mid-point of construction in June 2013. Table 3 documents the actual capital costs of the project in year-of- expenditure (YOE) dollars by Standard Cost Category (SCC) and computes average unit costs wher e possible. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 9 Table 3 Project Actual Costs City of Fort Collins Mason Corridor (MAX), BRT Project Amount Expended ($1,000,000) Quantity 10 GUIDEWAY & TRACK ELEMENTS (5 route miles) 6.97 5.00 Miles 10.01 Guideway: At-grade exclusive right-of-way 1.64 2.44 Miles 10.02 Guideway: At-grade semi-exclusive (allows cross-traffic) 3.72 2.10 Miles 10.03 Guideway: At-grade in mixed traffic .38 10.04 Guideway: Aerial structure .7 0.03 Miles 10.08 Guideway: Retained cut or fill .52 0.43 Miles 20 STATIONS, STOPS, TERMINALS, INTERMODAL 11.82 20.01 At-grade station, stop, shelter, mall, terminal, platform 6.75 19 Platforms with shelters 20.04 Other stations, landings, terminals: Intermodal, ferry, trolley, etc. 5.07 Transit Center 30 SUPPORT FACILITIES: YARDS, SHOPS, ADMIN. BLDGS 2.85 30.02 Light Maintenance Facility 2.85 16,240 SF 40 SITEWORK & SPECIAL CONDITIONS 16.82 40.01 Demolition, Clearing, Earthwork 1.51 40.02 Site Utilities, Utility Relocation 4.21 40.03 Haz. mat'l, contam'd soil removal/mitigation, ground water treatments .01 1178 SY 40.04 Environmental mitigation, e.g. wetlands, historic/archeologic, parks .005 40.05 Site structures including retaining walls, sound walls 1.76 2,250 LF 40.06 Pedestrian / bike access and accommodation, landscaping 1.88 40.07 Automobile, bus, van accessways including roads, parking lots 1.17 40.08 Temporary Facilities and other indirect costs during construction 6.28 50 SYSTEMS 13.21 50.01 Train control and signals 3.68 50.02 Traffic signals and crossing protection 2.26 50.05 Communications 5.53 50.06 Fare collection system and equipment 1.74 Construction Subtotal (10 - 50) 51.67 60 ROW, LAND, EXISTING IMPROVEMENTS 11.53 60.01 Purchase or lease of real estate 11.47 60.02 Relocation of existing households and businesses .06 70 VEHICLES (6) 4.37 70.04 Bus 4.37 6 80 PROFESSIONAL SERVICES (applies to Cats. 10-50) 15.51 80.02 Final Design 5.4 80.03 Project Management for Design and Construction 4.11 80.04 Construction Administration & Management 3.89 80.05 Professional Liability and other Non-Construction Insurance 0.0 80.06 Legal; Permits; Review Fees by other agencies, cities, etc. .59 80.07 Surveys, Testing, Investigation, Inspection .98 80.08 Start up .53 Subtotal (10 - 80) 83.08 90 UNALLOCATED CONTINGENCY Subtotal (10 - 90) 83.08 100 FINANCE CHARGES Total Project Cost (10 - 100) 83.08 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 10 3.2 Accuracy of the predicted costs at each milestone Predicted costs may be different from actual costs because of differences in the predicted versus actual (1) scope of the project, (2) unit costs and allowances used to prepare the base-year cost estimate, (3) the schedule for project construction and opening to service, and (4) the annual rates of inflation over the schedule. This section compares the predicted capital cost at each milestone against the actual cost of the as-built project and identifies the sources of any significant differences. The City developed predictions of capital costs for two milestones – entry into PD, and award of the PCGA. Table 4 summarizes the actual capital cost of the project and the predictions at the PD milestone. The table presents the costs in two different dollar valuations. First, values in “constant” dollars rely on the value of a dollar in a specific year, essentially assuming the project is built entirely within that year and ignoring the effects of inflation. Second, values in “year-of-expenditure” (YOE) dollars specifically recognize the schedule for project construction, the annual cost-inflation that erodes the value of the dollar over time, and the real-world cash flow for the project. The City followed standard practice in the prediction of capital costs for the MAX BRT project, first developing a cost prediction in constant dollars and then inflating that prediction to year-of-expenditure (YOE) dollars based on the anticipated project- construction schedule and annual rates of construction-cost inflation. PREDICTIONS OF TOTAL PROJECT COST Table 4 examines the accuracy of the City’s predictions of total project cost in both constant and YOE dollars. Table 4 Actual and Predicted Total Capital Costs Line No. Cost Measure Actual1 Prediction ($ year) Entry into PD (2007) PCGA (2010) Constant Dollars (millions) 1 Total capital cost in 2007 constant dollars $70.5 $69.4 --- 2 Total capital cost in 2010 constant dollars $77.9 --- $81.0 Inflation 3 Dollar-weighted mid-point of project expenditures Aug ‘12 Feb ‘09 Nov ‘11 4 Opening year 2014 2010 2014 5 Inflation effects compared to 2007 constant dollars 17.9% 6.9% --- 6 Inflation effects compared to 2010 constant dollars 6.7% --- 7.2% Year-of-Expenditure (YOE) Dollars (millions) 7 Total capital cost in YOE dollars $83.1 $74.2 $86.8 8 Predicted minus actual total capital cost in YOE dollars --- -$8.9 $3.8 9 -- component attributable to scope/unit-cost differences --- -$1.1 $3.4 10 -- component attributable to inflation-rate differences --- -$0.5 $1.6 11 -- component attributable to schedule differences --- -$7.2 -$1.3 Line 1 of Table 4 shows that the City predicted a constant-2007-dollar project cost $69.4 million at PD-entry in 2007. Line 1 also presents the actual cost of the project, translated from YOE dollars into constant 2007 dollars ($70.5 million). Comparison of the predicted and actual cost indicates that the City’s prediction was quite accurate – an underestimate of $1.1 million (-1.5 percent). Similarly, Line 2 compares the predicted constant-2010-dollar project cost of the PCGA ($81.0 million) to the actual project cost translated into constant 2010 dollars ($77.9 million). Again, the City’s prediction was quite accurate – an overestimate of $3.1 million (+4.0 percent). Overall, then, the City was spot-on Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 11 at both PD-entry and the PCGA in predictions of the total cost of the project in constant-dollar terms – that is, without the effects of inflation over the period of project construction. Lines 3 through 6 describe actual and predicted conditions related to inflation effects on MAX BRT project costs. • Line 3 presents the mid-points of expenditures on the project computed from the actual and predicted schedules of annual expenditures. • Line 4 documents the actual and predicted year of project opening. • Lines 5 and 6 summarize the actual and predicted impacts of construction-cost inflation on project costs in 2007 and 2010 constant dollars respectively. Referring to lines 3 and 4 – at PD-entry in 2007, the City anticipated a project schedule with a mid-point in February 2009 and project opening in 2010. At the award of the PCGA in 2010, the City anticipated a mid-point of November 2011 and project opening in May 2014 – largely the consequence of a delay in execution of the PCGA. During actual construction, the City was able to reach substantial completion, and start revenue service in early May 2014 slightly prior to the date cited in the PCGA; however, completion of punch-list items, construction of additional operational safety features, passenger amenities, and adjustments of components along the guideway to enhance bus operations, extended roughly 2.5 years through the end of 2017, leading to an actual midpoint of construction in August 2012. Referring to Table 4 lines 5 and 6 – At PD-entry, the City predicted that inflation would add 6.9 percent to the 2007 constant-dollar cost estimate based on the anticipated project schedule and an assumption of 3.25 percent annual increases in construction costs over the construction period. At the PCGA, the City predicted that inflation would add 7.2 percent to the 2010 constant-dollar cost estimate based on the revised construction schedule and the assumption of 3.78 percent annual inflation. (Table 5 summarizes the annual increase in construction costs as measured by the Engineering News Record’s national-average index of construction costs. The annual increase averaged 3.0 percent from 2007 to 2014.) Table 5 Actual Change in Construction Costs Year Index* Effective Rate Year Index* Effective Rate 2000 6221 --- 2009 8570 3.1% 2001 6343 2.0% 2010 8802 2.7% 2002 6538 3.1% 2011 9080 3.2% 2003 6694 2.4% 2012 9308 2.5% 2004 7115 6.3% 2013 9547 2.6% 2005 7446 4.7% 2014 9821 2.9% 2006 7751 4.1% 2015 10035 2.7% 2007 7966 2.8% 2016 10338 2.7% 2008 8310 4.3% 2017 10617 2.7% * Taken from the index of construction costs maintained by the Engineering News Record (nationwide values) Referring again to Table 4 lines 5 and 6 – The actual effect of inflation on the constant-dollar cost estimates was 17.9 percent added to the PD-entry estimate and 6.9 percent added to the PCGA estimate. The reason for the significant difference in actual inflation effects between the PD-entry estimate and the PCGA estimate is mostly attributable to the underestimated inflation add-on at PD-entry due to the delay in awarding the PCGA. The impact of inflation forecast at Entry into PD to the midpoint of construction was 6.9% versus 17.9% actual. Although the “midpoint” of construction for the actual project changed due to the punch-list construction items that extended 2 ½ years past the start of revenue operations, the predicted inflation was a bit LESS Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 12 than the actual. Thus, the extended period of construction did not have much of an impact; which is not surprising given that total expenditures in 2015-2017 were only $2.7 million out of a project total of $83 million. Table 4 lines 7 through 11 document actual and predicted costs in YOE dollars and identify the sources of cost differences in terms of contributions by differences in project scope and unit costs, annual inflation rates, and construction schedule. • At PD-entry the predicted cost was $8.9 million less than the actual costs in YOE dollars. Referring to lines 9-11 indicates that $7.2 million (80.9 percent) of that underestimate is associated with the delay in the award of the PCGA, $1.1 million (12.4 percent) is due to adjustments to scope, and $0.5 million (6.7 percent) is due to inaccurate inflation assumptions. • At PCGA award the predicted cost is $3.8 million higher than the actual cost in YOE dollars. On the surface that amount corresponds to the unused unallocated contingency of $ 3.76 million in YOE dollars. However, evaluating lines 9-11 of the table reveals that the PCGA overestimated unit costs by $3.4 million and inflation rates by $1.6 million but underestimated the length of the construction schedule ($1.3 million) due to the 2.5-year extension of construction activities through the end of 2017. Overall, the conclusions drawn from the above analyses are (1) that the overall cost estimate at PD-entry would have been reasonably accurate if period needed for PD had not extended longer than planned, and (2) that the overall cost estimate at award of the PCGA was accurate. COST PREDICTIONS FOR INDIVIDUAL PROJECT COMPONENTS Table 6 examines the accuracy of predicted costs for individual components of the project grouped into FTA’s Standard Cost Categories (SCCs). All predicted costs in the table are in constant 2010 dollars to remove inflation effects from any differences between the predicted and actual costs. Consequently, the causes of any cost differences are limited to differences in project scope, estimating accuracy, and/or differences in the base-year unit costs at each milestone. Table 6 Actual and Predicted Expenditures by SCC Converted to Constant PCGA-Year (2010) Dollars Predictions and Differences from Actual Costs (millions of $2010) Actual Entry into PD PCGA Original dollar year of the actual or predicted costs 2010 2007 2010 Standard Cost Category Actual Costs Predicted Costs Absolute Difference Relative Difference (percent) Predicted Costs Absolute Difference Relative Difference (percent) 10 Guideway $6.4 $20.8 $14.3 223% $11.8 $5.4 84% 20 Stations, Stops, Terminals $10.8 $9.7 -$1.2 -11% $8.2 -$2.7 -25% 30 Support Facilities $2.6 $2.0 -$0.6 -25% $3.0 $0.3 13% 40 Sitework & Special Conditions $15.5 $8.4 -$7.1 -46% $13.8 -$1.7 -11% 50 Systems $12.2 $7.9 -$4.3 -35% $10.7 -$1.5 -12% 60 Row, Land, $10.0 $8.2 -$1.8 -18% $13.9 $3.9 40% 70 Vehicles $4.0 $6.1 $2.1 51% $4.8 $0.8 19% Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 13 Table 6 Actual and Predicted Expenditures by SCC Converted to Constant PCGA-Year (2010) Dollars Predictions and Differences from Actual Costs (millions of $2010) Actual Entry into PD PCGA Original dollar year of the actual or predicted costs 2010 2007 2010 Standard Cost Category Actual Costs Predicted Costs Absolute Difference Relative Difference (percent) Predicted Costs Absolute Difference Relative Difference (percent) 80 Professional Services $14.7 $10.0 -$4.6 -31% $11.4 -$3.3 -23% 90 Unallocated Contingency N/A $3.7 N/A N/A $3.5 N/A N/A 100 Finance Charges $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 --- $0.0 $0.0 --- Total $76.3 $76.7 $0.4 1% $81.0 $4.7 6% Note: None of the $3.5 million budgeted in the PCGA for unallocated contingencies was spent. The first observation is that although the City’s overall project estimates of total project costs, both at the entry into PD and PCGA milestones, turned out to be reasonably accurate, the estimates for each SCC category all exhibit noticeable variance. From a macro perspective the analysis presented in Table 6 suggests that the project costs were not accurately allocated by SCC at each project milestone. The accuracy of the overall project budget is because the designers prepared a reasonably accurate estimate for the project based on quantity takeoffs from the design. However, the SCCs appear to have been inaccurately applied to the overall project estimate by the designers (see the cost predictions by SCC discussion below). COST PREDICTIONS BY SCC The City’s Construction Management (CM) consultant was assigned responsibility to prepare and maintain the project cost reporting for the MAX BRT project in accordance with FTA’s grant reporting guidelines during the construction phase of the project. As discussed in section 3.1 above, the CM tracked actual construction costs for the major construction contracts by using SCCs assigned to each unit-price pay item in the contractor’s bid tab. When the CM was setting up the cost reporting tools it determined that there were inaccuracies in the assignment of SCC numbers by the City’s design consultant when the bid tab was prepared. The CM addressed numerous issues with costs being assigned to SCC 40 (Sitework) vs. SCC 10 (Guideway), or SCC 20 (Stations) vs. SCC 50 (Communications), etc., as well as costs being assigned to the incorrect detailed SCC sub category (e.g., SCC10.08 vs. 10.04 for structures along the guideway). The CM was confident that it had corrected the major discrepancies in assignment of SCCs to pay items in the actual costs but acknowledged to the City that there are likely discrepancies it did not catch. The issues noted in the preceding paragraph contribute to the noticeable variances in the predicted vs. actual costs by SCC. The effort that the CM made is also indicative that the City’s design consultants were generally accurate in estimating the overall project costs but were not meticulous in assigning those costs to the appropriate SCCs. 3.2.1 At Entry into Project Development (PD) As seen in Table 6, the most significant SCC level cost variance from actual costs at entry into PD is in SCC 10 (223% variance). A large portion of that variance was created during design through a VE exercise, Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 14 to mitigate the cost and maintenance issues associated with piping/bridging 0.5 miles of the Larimer Canal, by reducing the amount of dedicated guideway (see the discussi on in section 2.2.2 above). There were no other major scope changes that can be identified that address the other significant cost variances by SCC. Based on the problems with costs being assigned to the appropriate SCCs addressed by the CM, the City concludes that the design consultants were prone to assigning costs to SCC 10 (Guideway) rather than being more precise in assigning costs to the appropriate SCCs. 3.2.2 At Award of the PCGA As seen in Table 6, the most significant SCC level cost variance from actual costs at award of the PCGA is in SCC 10 (84% variance). There were no major scope changes that can be identified to explain the significant cost variances by SCC. Based on the problems with costs being assigned to the appropriate SCCs addressed by the CM, the City concludes that the design consultants were prone to assigning costs to SCC 10 (Guideway) rather than being more precise in assigning costs to the appropriate SCCs. 3.3 Lessons learned The primary lesson learned by the City is that it needs to be more diligent in verifying that its design consultants are not only accurate in estimating the overall project costs but are also meticulous in assigning those costs to the appropriate SCCs. 4 Transit Service This section discusses the actual services provided on the MAX BRT and the impacts on Transfort’s transit network made to integrate MAX service into the transit system. The section then evaluates the accuracy of the transit plans developed at each prediction milestone and identifies the causes of any dif ferences between the anticipated service plans and the services provided after the project opened. 4.1 Actual transit services after project opening MAX BRT service operates on a BRT facility that has both dedicated and mixed traffic segments. The dedicated portions of the BRT facility feature signal priority for BRT buses. The mixed traffic segments are on streets that have low traffic volumes and thus do not contribute to bus delays. MAX BRT vehicles do not operate on any arterial streets outside of the BRT f acility. No other bus routes operated on the BRT at project opening. Regional bus service connecting Fort Collins to the nearby communities of Loveland and Longmont has since been added and uses the guideway facility. Connections with other bus routes occur at the two transit centers that serve as the northern and southern termini of the BRT line. Connections also occur at BRT stations and stops located along the guideway segments, where local bus routes cross the BRT line on east-west arterials. Table 7 provides the MAX BRT service headways by time-period. Table 7 Actual MAX BRT Service Headways Period and Headway Weekdays Hours Saturday Hours Early Morning - 15 Minutes 5:30 a.m. – 6:30 a.m. 6:00 a.m. – 11:00 a.m. Core - 10 Minutes 6:30 a.m. – 7:00 p.m. 11:00 a.m. – 6:30 p.m. Evening - 15 Minutes 7:00 p.m. – 9:00 p.m. 6:30 p.m. – 9:00 p.m. Late Night - 30 Minutes 9:00 p.m. – 12:00 a.m. 9:00 p.m. – 12:00 a.m. Note: In August 2017, Sunday and Holiday service from 8:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. (30-minute headway) was added. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 15 At the start of revenue service, in May 2014, the average end-to-end one-way run time was roughly 30 minutes, but by September 2014 the average end-to-end one-way run time was 22.7 minutes. Current average end-to-end one-way run time is 20.2 minutes. The reductions in run time are due to improved driver handling of operations at stations (which involve navigating cross-overs2 in the dedicated portion and docking with the station platforms) and post-opening adjustments to the line (such as the addition of traffic signals at Lake and Pitkin Streets to replace a stop sign for BRT buses). The current average speed of the MAX BRT service is 14.3 miles per hour. This average holds for both the mixed traffic segments (which are generally single-lane facilities that are lightly traveled by non-BRT vehicles and have an adjacent bike lane) and the dedicated right of way segments (which feature entry/exit gates, no shoulders, 20 mph speed limits, and somewhat more complicated station operations). The guideway segments for this BRT project were designed primarily to deliver more reliable operations by moving bus operations off of the heavily congested College Avenue corridor, and convenient customer experiences at the stations rather than produce faster operating speeds. Figure 2 shows the MAX BRT service in the context of the connecting services and network. Table 8 Actual MAX BRT Service Bus Connections Transit Center/Station Transfer Route Downtown Transit Center 5, 8, 9, 10, 14, 18, 81, 92 University Station HORN Drake Station 7 Swallow Stop 5, 6 Harmony Station 12, 19 South Transit Center 6, 12, 16, 19, FLEX The project replaced the Route 1 mixed-traffic north-south service on College Avenue and the Route 15 north-south service between Colorado State University and Downtown (which utilized Meldrum St. and the one-way couplet of Howes St. and Mason St.) with a BRT service employing as much exclusive guideway as possible in the Mason Street railroad corridor. The one-way couplet of Howes St. and Mason St. was converted to a pair of two-way streets. Comparison maps are available as Figure 3. The project was built at a time when Fort Collins was expanding its bus system into a more complete grid. The MAX BRT project provides improved transit service to the south corridor where development is the densest and transit ridership is the highest. A few routes were added (two) or modified (four) to best connect and work with the MAX BRT service. 2 For the island stations on the busway, the use of right-side boarding buses requires operators to navigate a yield- sign controlled cross-over in advance of and subsequent to docking with the station platform. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 16 Figure 2 MAX BRT Service Table 8 provides a key to bus connections at BRT stations. While the connections noted are available, few transfers are actually made, suggesting that the connections may not be attractive to riders. Potential riders from areas beyond walking distance are invited to bicycle, use kiss-and-ride, or to park-and-ride at new parking provided at the stations. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 17 Table 9 summarizes the changes to the existing transit services because of the project, and Table 10 summarizes the associated changes in service revenue miles and revenue hours. Table 9 Service Changes Due to MAX BRT Implementation Route Notes New Routes MAX BRT Replace service on parallel routes (Routes 1 & 15) with BRT service on Mason/McClelland. 12 Added route to provide connection along Horsetooth Road to MAX Horsetooth Station. (Potion of the area served by Routes 5 & 6 prior to MAX.) HORN Campus Shuttle Added on-campus shuttle providing a transfer point at the MAX University Station. Deleted Routes 1 Service on College Avenue replace with MAX BRT. 15 Service between CSU and Downtown replaced with MAX BRT. Modified Routes 5 After opening, modified to operate on Swallow to serve MAX Swallow Station. 6 After opening, modified to operate from Taft Hill to Drake and Meadowlark to serve MAX Swallow Station, and extended to operate on Stanford and JFK Parkway. 7 Modified to operate on Drake Road to Timberline (from Stover) and to operate on Shields to Prospect, rather than Shields to Centre. Increased frequency from every 60 to every 30 minutes. 16 Modified to serve South Transit Center and increased frequency from every 60 to every 30 minutes. Table 10 Changes in Service Revenue Miles and Revenue Hours Service Dimension Average Weekday Revenue Miles Average Weekday Revenue Hours Before After Change Before After Change Project Corridor 660 965 305 64 94 30 Project Connecting Routes 2,202 2,906 704 154 218 63 Remaining System 1,006 1,164 158 74 97 23 Total 3,553 5,158 1,605 271 417 145 Notes: “Before” values are for April 2014; “After” values are for September 2014. “Project Corridor” includes Mason (Route 15), College (Route 1), and MAX Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 18 Before After Figure 3 Before-and-After Transit Service in the Project Corridor 4.2 Accuracy of the predicted service plans at each milestone The anticipated service plan for the project and its connecting bus routes closely matched the actual service after project opening. The operating hours assumed for the MAX BRT at the Entry into PD and PCGA milestones matched the actual outcome: the MAX BRT service opened using these same operating hours. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 19 The headway assumptions for the MAX BRT at the Entr y into PD and PCGA milestones were different from the actual outcome only in that they assumed 10-minute early morning weekday headways (5:30-6:30 a.m.) versus the 15-minute headways in the actual operation. Some minor differences are observable between the predicted and actual run times/speeds as shown in Table 11 and Table 12. The differences in the intermediate point values primarily relate to refinements made in the project through the stages of development (e.g., adjustments to station locations; shortening the dedicated guideway section). The differences in the end-to-end times primarily relate to improved operator performance with the precision docking procedure, the installation of additional traffic signals, and refined signal timing (done after the project opening). Table 11 Predicted versus Actual Run Times for Schedule Timepoints (in Minutes) STC to Horsetooth Horsetooth to Drake Drake to University University to DTC Total Difference from Current Service Current (Fall 2017) 4.3 4.5 5.6 5.9 20.2 -- Post-MAX Opening (Summer 2014) 5.1 4.1 6.4 7.2 22.7 2.4 PCGA 4.2 4.9 4.8 7.0 20.4 0.2 Entry to PD 4.3 3.8 4.8 6.6 19.5 -0.7 Note: Times include dwell times/schedule pad Table 12 Predicted versus Actual Speeds for Schedule Timepoints (in Miles per Hour) STC to Horsetooth Horsetooth to Drake Drake to University University to DTC Total Difference from Current Service Current (Fall 2017) 13.8 16.4 13.4 11.4 14.3 - - Post-MAX Opening (Summer 2014) 16.3 15.1 15.3 7.2 12.8 -1.5 PCGA 16.9 13.7 17.7 10.3 14.2 -0.1 Entry to PD 17.5 16.3 17.7 7.3 13.9 -0.4 Note: Speeds include dwell times/schedule pad Differences from the actual outcomes in the predicted bus connection points resulted from additional service planning completed after the project was committed. Overall, the differences in the planned versus actual supporting routes (identified in Table 9 above) were very small: At the Entry to PD and PCGA Award milestones, only the MAX BRT service was planned as a new service as part of the project. In the actual outcome, Route 12 and HORN Campus Shuttle were implemented as new connecting routes. Connecting Routes 5, 6, and 7 were unmodified at the Entry into PD milestone but were modified by the time of the PCGA Award - in ways that matched the actual outcomes for these routes. Planned modifications to connecting Route 16 at the E ntry to PD and PCGA Award milestones matched exactly the changes that were implemented. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 20 Finally, new Routes 13 and 17 were planned as additions to connect to the BRT at the En try to PD milestone but were dropped during Project Development and not implemented in the actual outcome. The markets they would have served were addressed through other transit service adjustments. 5 Operating and Maintenance Costs This section documents the change in actual operating and maintenance (O&M) costs associated with the project. The section then evaluates the accuracy of the estimates of O&M costs at each prediction milestone and identifies the causes of any differences between those predicti ons and actual costs after the project opened. 5.1 Actual O&M costs after project opening Transfort does not track MAX O&M costs separately from the rest of its operations. Transfort knows that MAX O&M costs are higher because of the cost of guideway maintenance. For BRT dispatching, there are the salaries of additional dispatch staff and bus operators needed for the BRT that apply to MAX to but not to other routes. The unit costs for BRT operations are the same as Transfort incurs for the rest of its operations (e.g., operator salaries on a per hour/mile basis, bus fuel/maintenance per mile, etc. are the same). For the guideway, there is snow removal on the dedicated guideway and BRT stations/stops (a high cost item), maintenance of the passenger communications/security systems at the BRT Stations/Stops. For this report Transfort used the average hourly costs per operator and per mile for bus fuel/maintenance from the existing system to estimate MAX costs for operations and vehicle maintenance. The other MAX guideway maintenance costs were identified in Transfort’s records. 5.2 Predicted Vs. Actual O&M costs after project opening For the predicted costs, only one projection of O&M costs was prepared in 2007 to support the entry to PD milestone. That projection and the actual incurred costs for MAX’s first full year of operation are depicted in Table 13, broken down by cost center. In 2007, the projected start of revenue service was 2012, with the first full year of revenue service projected as 2013. The total O&M costs forecasts increased with each grant submittal between 2007 – 2011, however no documentation exists showing either cost center assumptions or other adjustments. The actual first full year of operations was 2015. The projected costs in 2013 O&M dollars were escalated to 2015 dollars assuming an annual inflation rate of 2% per year in Table 13. Cost center comparisons in Table 13 are rough at best due to uncertainties around the lack of specifics in the projected figures. Operations costs include salaries and benefits of operators. It is assumed that the 2013 projections did not contained salaries of other support staff. The 2015 actual costs include salaries of additional dispatch staff needed for the BRT. Support services includes admin and overhead, and is an estimated amount based on the percentage of the overall operations costs. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 21 Table 13 Predicted vs. Actual O&M Costs Breakdown of MAX O&M Expenses Actual First Full Year of Operation ($,000) Entry to PD Predicted Differenc e Predicted – Actual - in 2015 Dollars ($,000) Percent Difference from Predicted First Full Year of Operation Assumed as 2013 ($,000) First Full Year of Operation Inflation Adjusted @ 2% per year ($,000) 2015 2013 2015 Operations $1,217 $1,271 $ 1,323 $ 106 8.0% Fleet Maintenance $ 367 $ 507 $527 $ 160 30.4% Fuel $ 197 $ 289 $301 $ 104 34.6% Street Sweeping, Pothole Repair & Snow Removal $ 243 $40 $ 42 ($ 201) - 477.5% Support Services (admin, TSOs, dispatch, road supervisors, insurance) $ 943 Not Estimated Not Estimated ($ 943) N/A Total $2,969 $2,067 $ 2,193 ($ 774) - 35.3% Guideway maintenance includes snow removal and street maintenance costs. Snow removal costs ($243K) were significantly underestimated. The fleet maintenance, fuel and guideway maintenance costs categories have significant discrepancies and the operations costs were underestimated because of, it appears, the omission of the cost of additional dispatch staff. The reason for this omission is unknown; supposition is that it was inadvertently forgotten. 6 Ridership This chapter first highlights the actual impacts of the project on ridership. It then evaluates the accuracy of ridership forecasts for the project prepared during project development. Appendix A includes additional annual ridership growth information; and appendices B, C, and D provide more detailed tabulations of the data highlighted in the chapter itself. 6.1 Actual Ridership Impacts An onboard survey was conducted in October of 2017 to quantify actual ridership on the entire Transfort bus system after the opening of the MAX project. An onboard survey was also conducted in April 2014 before the project opening. However, the before survey included only the bus routes then serving the project corridor – Routes 1 and 15. Consequently, detailed comparisons of ridership patterns and rider characteristics before and after project opening are limited to the riders on routes in the project corridor: Routes 1 and 15 before project opening and MAX after project opening. The comparisons exclude riders on all other routes in the system. 6.1.1 Actual Ridership on the Project Determination of the actual ridership outcome of the project is challenging because of the substantial growth in systemwide ridership that occurred during the period in which the project opened. Figure and Error! Reference source not found. document growth in average weekday transit ridership over the period for routes in the project corridor, other CSU-connected routes, and all other routes in the system. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 22 Figure 4 Average Weekday Boardings for Fall and Spring, 2012 through 2017 Table 14 Average Weekday Boardings for Fall and Spring, 2012 through 2017 Spring 2012 Fall 2012 Spring 2013 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Spring 2016 Fall 2016 Spring 2017 Fall 2017 Corridor 1,583 1,584 1,669 1,645 1,660 2,497 2,482 5,005 4,588 5,300 4,910 5,296 CSU Non- Corridor Routes 4,996 5,503 5,483 5,290 5,467 5,451 6,536 8,626 8,228 9,292 8,899 9,937 Non-CSU Routes 2,970 2,828 2,943 2,804 2,836 2,229 2,604 3,259 3,368 3,468 3,423 3,412 Systemwide 9,549 9,915 10,096 9,739 9,962 10,177 11,622 16,890 16,184 18,060 17,233 18,645 Corridor ridership on routes 1 and 15 averaged 1,660 boardings in the spring of 2014, largely unchanged from its average over the previous four years. After the project opened in May 2014 and MAX replaced these two local routes, MAX ridership averaged 2,497 boardings throughout the fall and remained at that level through the spring of 2015. In September of 2015 – 16 months after project opening – MAX ridership jumped to 5,005 boardings and remained at this higher level throughout the fall. MAX ridership has since grown modestly, increasing to 5,296 by the fall of 2017 with small increases each fall and smaller drop- offs each spring. Meanwhile, ridership on other routes providing service to CSU had averaged 5,365 school season weekday boardings from spring of 2012 through spring of 2014. Ridership on these routes remained similar in the 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Sp r i n g 2 0 1 2 Fa l l 2 0 1 2 Sp r i n g 2 0 1 3 Fa l l 2 0 1 3 Sp r i n g 2 0 1 4 Fa l l 2 0 1 4 Sp r i n g 2 0 1 5 Fa l l 2 0 1 5 Sp r i n g 2 0 1 6 Fa l l 2 0 1 6 Sp r i n g 2 0 1 7 Fa l l 2 0 1 7 Av e r a g e W e e k d a y B o a r d i n g s Corridor CSU Non-Corridor Routes Non-CSU Routes MA X O p e n s Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 23 fall of 2014 but increased significantly in the spring of 2015 and again in the fall, reaching an average of 9,937 weekday boardings by fall of 2017. Ridership on all other routes in the Transfort system also increased over this interval but much less rapidly. Ridership on these routes averaged 2,229 boardings in fall 2014, a modest decline from previous years. Ridership increased to 3,259 by the fall of 2015 and remained at approximately that level thro ugh fall 2017. This history of Transfort ridership indicates different growth rates in three separate intervals: 1. Up to and including spring 2014 – when ridership was more-or-less stable in all three route groups; 2. fall 2014 up to and including fall 2015 – when ridership grew substantially in all three groups; and 3. after fall 2015, when ridership grew modestly in all three groups. Because MAX opened at the beginning of the second interval when ridership boomed both on MAX and also elsewhere in the system, the challenge is to determine how much of the increase in corridor ridership was attributable to MAX itself and how much was attributable to other changes occurring in that period. The immediate increase in ridership in the project corridor – to 2,497 boardings in fall 2014 – seems entirely attributable to the opening of MAX. Ridership on other CSU -connected routes remained steady and ridership on all other routes dropped marginally. The subsequent increase in MAX ridership in this period is not nearly so clear. Ridership increased dramatically both on MAX and on other CSU routes, and moderately on all other routes in the system. The question is whether MAX ridership increased because it somehow resumed maturing (after a pause during the spring of 2015) or MAX ridership increased because it was responding to the same external influences that were driving increases (particularly for other CSU-connected routes) elsewhere in the system. Some insights can be derived by assuming that MAX’s opening year ridership grew at the same pace as ridership on other CSU-connected routes (82 percent from 5,451 in fall 2014 to 9,937 in fall 2017). If MAX ridership had grown at the same pace, it would have increased from 2,497 boardings in fall 2014 to 4,552 boardings in fall 2017 – some 745 fewer trips than the actual MAX ridership in fall 2017. This result suggests that, without the external influences that were increasing ridership on other CSU-connected routes, MAX ridership in fall 2017 would have been 3,242 boardings – the sum of the 2,497 boardings it reached in fall 2015 plus 745 additional boardings as it continued to mature. The remainder of the increase to 5,296 boardings appears to be attributable to external influences that were causing parallel increases in other CSU-connected routes. External factors contributed to growth in ridership on both MAX and on other routes serving CSU. Table 15 documents the changes in several external factors that are likely to have contributed to increasing ridership in the project corridor and on other routes serving CSU. Several other external factors may have also contributed to growth in MAX ridership be tween opening day and 2017. These include: • Free rides on Transfort for CSU faculty and staff starting in fall of 2015; • Increases in parking costs at CSU, as documented in Error! Reference source not found.; • Major construction at CSU that closed two significant parking lots during the 2015-2016 academic year, reducing available parking spaces as shown in Error! Reference source not found.; Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 24 Table 15 Historical Demographic, Enrollment and Transit Service Data Metric 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Population 144,888 152,205 154,570 160,935 162,919 167,500 Employment 134,400 145,400 150,400 155,500 162,700 166,500 CSU enrollment 29,932 31,514 31,725 32,236 33,198 33,413 Number of students living on campus 6,477 6,652 6,649 7,060 7,868 7,955 Number of students living off campus 23,455 24,862 25,076 25,176 25,330 25,458 Revenue hours of service 75,564 78,742 103,232 118,846 126,192 129,438 Revenue miles of service 913,682 1,033,967 1,297,622 1,496,165 1,610,699 1,612,941 • A new transportation demand management (TDM) program implemented at CSU in fall of 2014, with fall of 2015 starting the second year of this program; • Introduction of park and ride access to MAX, allowing CSU students and employees to park for free and ride MAX to campus; and • Introduction of the Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS) in fall of 2014, providing riders with real time arrival information. Table 16 Historical CSU Parking Data Metric Academic Year 2010-2011 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 CSU parking costs for faculty/staff (annual) $210 $261 $317 $442 $565 $582 CSU parking costs for students (annual) $188 $234 $292 $407 $520 $536 CSU parking costs at resident halls (annual) $243 $303 $354 $476 $476 $628 CSU short-term parking costs (hourly) $1.00 $1.00 $1.25 $1.50 $1.75 $1.75 CSU remote lot1 parking costs (annual) n/a n/a n/a $250 $250 $250 Parking permits issued 15,953 14,123 13,691 12,524 13,482 14,398 Note: 1 The CSU remote parking lot, opened for the 2015-2016 academic year, is accessed by a campus feeder bus and is not directly connected to MAX. The best available evidence makes a plausible case for a conclusion that the introduction of the MAX facility and service attracted an average of 2,500 boardings in its first year, attracted another 750 trips during its second year as its ridership matured, and also enjoyed additional ridership increases through fall 2017 caused by the external factors described above. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 25 6.1.2 Characteristics of Trips on the Project This section tabulates the detailed data from the 2017 rider survey and therefore provides a snapshot of Transfort ridership in the fall months when system ridership is higher than the annual average. Error! Reference source not found. provides the linked project trips3 for district-to-district interchanges, corresponding to the districts presented in Figure , as well as the share of those trips made by CSU students, faculty, and staff. The largest market comprises the 1,826 trips to CSU from residences throughout the corridor and elsewhere in the metro area. Of these trips, 84 percent were made by CSU students, faculty, and staff. Students traveling to school at CSU made 899 of these trips, just under one half. The second largest market is the 1,363 trips attracted to downtown, again from residences throughout the corridor and the metro area. Only 287 of these trips were made by commuters traveling between home and work. Most were made by riders traveling between home and some non -work activity (616 trips) or between two non-home activities (460 trips). The approximately 2,000 remaining trips on the project are attracted to activities throughout Fort Collins or elsewhere in the North Front Range, reflecting the central location of the BRT corridor within the Transfort transit system. Table 17 2017 District-to-District Project Linked Trips in P-A4 Format Prod. District Home-Based Work HBU Home-Based Other Non-Home-Based (1 ) C B D (2 ) C S U (3 ) M i d (4 ) S o u (5 ) S E (6 ) S W (7 ) O t h (2 ) C S U (1 ) C B D (2 ) C S U (3 ) M i d (4 ) S o u (5 ) S E (6 ) S W (7 ) O t h (1 ) C B D (2 ) C S U (3 ) M i d (4 ) S o u (5 ) S E (6 ) S W (7 ) O t h (1) CBD 0 23 54 74 0 23 8 144 54 47 70 54 0 62 27 69 190 96 78 4 23 47 (2) CSU 31 0 31 47 0 8 0 10 39 0 23 39 0 18 8 136 16 186 62 0 54 16 (3) Mid 93 62 31 35 0 16 0 279 151 47 27 66 0 8 8 97 124 66 66 8 8 0 (4) Sou 85 62 16 0 0 8 19 225 171 35 97 0 0 16 8 97 50 31 0 0 0 0 (5) SE 0 23 16 8 0 0 8 47 27 0 31 8 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 (6) SW 39 54 23 0 0 0 16 109 92 39 39 0 0 0 8 39 58 62 16 0 0 19 (7) Oth 39 78 43 16 0 8 27 85 81 12 16 12 0 8 0 19 8 16 19 0 0 4 Total 287 303 213 178 0 62 78 899 616 178 303 178 0 111 58 460 446 457 241 12 85 85 HBU=Home-Based University trips are made by students; commute trips to the university made by faculty and staff are counted among the Home-Based Work trips to District 2. 3 A linked trip is defined as a trip from an origin (such as home) to a destination (such as work), regardless of the number of bus boardings needed to make the trip. A linked trip that requires a transfer along the way therefore represents one linked trip and two boardings – one on each of the two bus routes involved. A linked project trip is defined as a linked trip that uses MAX at some point on its origin-to-destination transit path. 4 P-A format indicates production to attraction format, meaning that trips are summarized from the home end of the trip to the non-home end of the trip. For example, a round trip between a home in mid-Mason and a restaurant in downtown would consist of two trips from mid-Mason to downtown when summarized in P-A format. For non- home-based trips, productions are defined as the trip origin and attractions are defined as the trip destination. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 26 Figure 5 Districts Note: The “Other” district covers the remainder of the North Front Range, including the communities of Loveland, Greeley, and several other small cities and towns. 6.1.3 Change in Ridership Trips on transit services within the project corridor have increased significantly since the opening of the project in 2014. (Transit travel also increased significantly throughout the metro area, but this analysis is confined to the MAX corridor because the 2014 covered only the two routes (1 and 15) that served the corridor before the project opened.) Table 18 summarizes the change in corridor trips by district. The biggest increase in the corridor occurred for trips attracted to the university, representing 46% of all growth. CSU students, faculty, and staff accounted for 64% of this increase (trip tables for CSU students, faculty, and staff are included in appendices B, C, and D). Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 27 Table 18 District-to-District Corridor Linked Trips in P-A Format, Before and After Production District Corridor Trips after Project Opening Change (After - Before) in Corridor Trips (1 ) C B D (2 ) C S U (3 ) M i d (4 ) S o u (5 ) S E (6 ) S W (7 ) O t h To t a l (1 ) C B D (2 ) C S U (3 ) M i d (4 ) S o u (5 ) S E (6 ) S W (7 ) O t h To t a l (1) CBD 123 404 220 206 4 109 81 1,146 70 349 155 134 -12 88 -30 753 (2) CSU 206 26 241 147 0 80 23 723 169 24 236 147 0 80 -6 651 (3) Mid 341 512 124 167 8 31 8 1,191 242 487 103 131 7 11 -49 931 (4) Sou 353 372 144 0 0 23 27 920 302 357 133 0 0 18 -29 782 (5) SE 31 70 47 16 0 0 8 171 26 60 41 16 -5 -5 -20 112 (6) SW 169 260 124 16 0 0 43 612 152 260 119 16 0 -5 27 569 (7) Oth 140 182 74 47 0 16 31 489 17 143 -6 0 -5 -7 -294 -152 Total 1,363 1,826 973 598 12 259 221 5,251 978 1,679 781 443 -15 180 -400 3,646 Note: Corridor trips before project opening are defined as trips using Routes 1 and 15; corridor trips after project opening are defined as trips using the project. Linked trips are summarized from the before and after surveys. Error! Reference source not found. presents the change in trips by purpose. Even with the large increase in CSU-focused travel, the distribution across trip purposes remained constant because student riders make large numbers of transit trips for other purposes in addition to trips to/from school, and because a significant portion of the increase in corridor ridership represents work trips by CSU faculty and staff. Error! Reference source not found. presents the change in trips by access mode at the home end of the transit trip. In the 2017 survey, 60% of MAX riders accessed the BRT by walking, followed by Par k-and-Ride (25%), and bike (10%). Section B.6 of the appendix tabulates district-to-district trips on the project for all access modes. Park-and-Ride access was essentially non-existent before the introduction of MAX and the five new park-and-ride lots at its stations. Bike access increased in response to the new bicycle parking facilities at MAX stations. Transfers from other bus routes represent a small percentage of trips (3%) due to the low frequency (30-60-minute headways) and schedule uncertainty of connecting routes. Table 19 Corridor Linked Trips by Trip Purpose Table 20 Corridor Linked Trips by Access Mode Trip Purpose After Change (After – Before) Share of Growth Access Mode After Change (After - Before) Share of Growth Home-based Work 1,121 765 21% Park-and-Ride 1,273 1,253 35% Home-based University 899 644 18% Kiss-and-Ride 140 111 3% Home-based Other 1,445 1,004 28% Bus (transfer) 153 104 3% Non-home-based 1,786 1,233 34% Bike 504 407 11% Total 5,251 3,646 Walk 3,073 1,699 48% Error! Reference source not found. presents the change in trips by auto availability, which shows the bigger increases in trips occurring for riders from car-owning households. It should be noted that 71% of project Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 28 trips with 3 or more vehicles in the household were made by CSU students. These students likely live further from campus with their families or live in multi-student households. Table 21 Corridor Linked Trips by Auto Availability Number of Vehicles Available in the Household After Change (After – Before) Change in Share of Total Trips Share of Trips by CSU Students (Before) Share of Trips by CSU Students (After) 0 1,255 486 -26% 19% 30% 1 1,407 1,029 4% 27% 46% 2 1,238 1,051 16% 43% 46% 3 or more 799 704 5% 27% 71% 6.2 Accuracy of Opening Year Ridership Predictions The discussion of actual ridership in section 6.1.1 concluded that the actual ridership outcome of the project was 2,500 boardings throughout its first year plus another 750 boardings in its second year, for a total matured ridership level of 3,250 boardings on an average weekday during the time when CSU is in session. Concurrent ridership gains that brought MAX ridership to 5,300 boardings per weekday were caused by external influences described previously. The ridership forecast prepared during project development for the opening year anticipated 4,054 BRT boardings on an average weekday with CSU in session. The forecast was prepared in 2011 and, because it was for an opening year only 3 years away (and because FTA project rating criteria at the time considered only the horizon-year rather than the opening year), simply assumed that conditions would remain the same as they were in 2011. This means that the forecasting model knew only about the introduction of MAX and was uniformed of the changes that occurred at CSU and throughout the Transfort system by 2017. From that perspective, the forecast of 4,054 boardings was an overestimate of the direct MAX ridership outcome of 3,250 boardings. And, because the forecasting model was entirely unaware of other influences at CSU and systemwide, it was an inevitable underestimate of the eventual MAX ridership outcome by the fall of 2017. Figure compares the MAX ridership forecasts to the various components of the actual MAX ridership outcome. As noted, the forecasts were prepared based on an assumption that nothing would change for a short-term horizon other than the introduction of the BRT project whereas, in the actual outcome, substantia l changes occurred in a number of external factors that have influenced ridership growth. The following section Figure 6 Comparison of Forecasts and Observed Boardings in the Project Corridor Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 29 provides highlights of the important ways that the forecasts missed the actual outcome, for the purposes of providing information that could be helpful in future model updates. The largest market (1,800 trips) of MAX riders in 2017 comprised trips to CSU. While the model over- predicted home-based university trips to CSU by students and visitors, the model under-predicted other types of trips to CSU, including a prediction of only 25% of the 300 actual home-based work trips and just under 3% of the nearly 450 non-home-based trips. Furthermore, trips from CSU were also under-predicted. Only 27 trips were predicted to be produced at CSU of the 723 actual trips; CSU trip productions were under- predicted for all trip purposes. Three other major MAX ridership markets were 1) non-CSU trips to the CBD, 2) trips entirely outside of CSU and the CBD, and trips from the CBD to non-CSU areas. • Non-CSU trips to the CBD (1,160 trips): This market was primarily commute trips with a small number of short trips between CBD stations. The forecast reasonably estimated commute travel (within 40 trips) but underestimated non-commute trips to the CBD by approximately 680 trips. • Trips entirely outside CSU and the CBD (950 trips): The forecast underestimated commute trips in this market by 43% and estimated non-commute trips reasonably well (within 10%) but the distribution of those non-commute trips by purpose were off by overestimation of home-based other and underestimation of non-home-based trips. • Trips from the CBD to non-CSU areas (620 trips): The forecast underestimated commute trips in this market by about half and underestimated non-commute trips by a factor of 4. Aggregating all MAX travel markets, the forecast underestimated home -based work and overestimated home-based university trips. Both home-based other and non-home-based trips were underestimated for CSU and non-CSU related travel. Appendix D provides detailed comparisons between actual and estimated trips on the project, by district and by trip purposes. While it’s difficult to compare actual ridership with a forecast that excluded external factors, some valuable insights can be gained from this analysis. • The forecast underestimated MAX trips by on -campus residents from classroom areas to other areas such as the CBD. The model included two zones to represent CSU: one zone representing on-campus residents (productions) and one zone representing the classrooms (attractions). In reviewing the modeled results, it was determined that the transit stops were closer to the classrooms and further away from the residents. This resulted in few trips being produced in that CSU zone. As shown by the on-board survey data, on-campus students were making non-home-based trips from the classrooms to other areas such as the CBD, but the model was not capturing those trips. • The mode choice model was too sensitive to home -based university travel for transit. Travel to and from CSU is a major component of the transit system in Fort Collins. Even before the introduction of MAX, CSU transit trips made up a large share of total ridership. This may have led to an alternative specific constant for transit that increased the propensity of home-based trips to the university to use transit. • The model under-predicted use of MAX by non-CSU markets, particularly for non-commute travel. It is unclear exactly why the forecasts underpredicted non -university travel. Possible reasons include faster growth in the region than assumed in the forecast and a higher propensity for non-university trips to be made on BRT as opposed to local bus. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 30 7 Economic Impacts Over the past several years, Fort Collins has been experiencing a high rate of growth supported by commercial and residential development throughout the community. Much of this development has been concentrated on redevelopment or infill sites within a quarter mile of the MAX corridor. A total of 845 new housing units and over 301K square feet of new commercial space has been constructed along the 5-mile long Mason Corridor between 2014 (start of MAX operations) and 2018. The total construction value of these projects was $161 million. City-wide, 5,500 housing units were constructed, and the value of construction was $2.3 billion from 2014 - 2018. Without the large public transportation investment in MAX, the level of private investment along the Mason Corridor would likely have been lower, and development projects may have been built elsewhere, may not have been built, may have been smaller scale or may have featured fewer transit supportive elements such as lower housing densities, more parking, less robust pedestrian features and other unique elements. The private housing market began to respond to the MAX project immediately after opening with the construction of several projects including State, a large private student housing development (676 bedrooms) near the Prospect Station, MAX Flats (100 bedrooms) with an integrated MAX station, and Pros pect Station (49 bedrooms) near the Prospect Station. While most projects are concentrated on the north end of the corridor including in Downtown, several including the Redtail Ponds Supportive Housing project (66 bedrooms) have been built south of Drake Road. Some, but not all, of these projects are exclusively geared towards the student market. The City of Fort Collins began the effort to promote transit-oriented development in the Corridor by adopting the Transit Oriented Development zoning overlay in 2007. The zoning overlay includes regulations and incentives to “encourage land uses, densities and design that enhance and support transit along the Mason Corridor”. Regulations govern design elements such as building orientation, outdoor spaces, streetscape and pedestrian connections, and character and image. The overlay also provides an incentive in the form of reduced parking requirements. In addition, City identified the Corridor as a “Targeted Redevelopment Area” and adopted an Urban Renewal Plan that provides Tax Increment Financing to private sector projects in the Corridor. Many developers have cited the construction of MAX as a major factor in the decision to build along the Mason Corridor. The Fort Collins’ Coloradoan reported in 2013 the f ollowing statement regarding a press release by the developer of Prospect Station (not to be confused with the MAX station of the same name), a transit oriented development: “… [Prospect Station] helps encourage walkability in the Midtown area and fits with city goals to allow higher development density along the Mason Corridor where the MAX bus rapid transit system will begin service in May.” New developments in the corridor continue to market MAX as an amenity, as evidenced by their webpage descriptions: • Prospect Station is proud to be joined together by MAX, the city’s rapid transit system. MAX makes living in and enjoying the best Fort Collins has to offer, from Old Town to Harmony, without the use of a personal vehicle. (Prospect Station) • Located between two MAX transit stations. (State) • There is a bus station right outside our door. (MAX Flats) Other recent development activity in or adjacent to the Mason Corridor has included the Foothills Mall redevelopment, extensive multi-family development in Downtown, North College and around the CSU Campus on both greenfield and redevelopment sites, and mixed-use greenfield development on East Harmony Road. Transit-supportive development along the Mason Corridor is expected to continue, particularly south of Drake, and a local developer recently proposed a large transit-oriented development near the Drake Station. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 31 Since 2014, Fort Collins has been tracking property values in ¼ mile radius around MAX for different corridor segments. As shown in Table 22 assessed property values in the ¼ mile radius grew 28% between 2014 and 2018. Between ¼ mile and 1-mile radius around the Corridor, property values increased by 32%. In the same period, overall assessed property values in Fort Collins increased by 33%. Table 22 Assessed Property Value Change Between 2014 - 2018 Mason Corridor Segment 1/4 Mile Corridor Radius 1/4 Mile – 1 Mile Corridor Radius Fort Collins Downtown 30% 55% N/A Upper Midtown 28% 32% N/A CSU Area 7% 16% N/A Central Midtown 43% 34% N/A Lower Midtown 31% 23% N/A Average 28% 32% 33% To put these figures in context, the Mason Corridor is an aging retail strip corridor that until recently had been experiencing disinvestment between Prospect and Horsetooth Road, resulting in underutilized and vacant properties. Some key large retailers had abandoned the high traffic volume corridor and moved south to Harmony Road or other greenfield locations. Under these conditions, property values would be expected to continue to decline. However, the C orridor is now experiencing a revival and has recently seen considerable new investment through business growth and redevelopment, reversing the property value decline. While it is too early to fully conclude the extent of the impact the MAX project, it has certainly played a role in leveraging new investment near several MAX stations like Mulberry, Prospect, and Spring Creek. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 32 EXHIBIT A TABLE OF ACRONYMS AA Alternatives Analysis ATIS Advanced Traveler Information System BNSF BNSF Railway Company BRT Bus Rapid Transit CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate City City of Fort Collins CM Construction Manager CSU Colorado State University CTC CSU Transit Center DTC Downtown Transit Center EA Environmental Assessment FMP Financial Management Plan FONSI Finding of No Significant Impact FTA Federal Transit Administration MAX Mason Corridor Express MTP Mall Transfer Point NFRMPO North Front Range Metropolitan Planning Organization NRRC Natural Resources Research Center O&M operations and maintenance PCGA Project Construction Grant Agreement ROW right-of-way SCC Standard Cost Category STC South Transit Center TMF Transfort Maintenance Facility YOE Year of Expenditure Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 33 EXHIBIT B RIDERSHIP APPENDICES… APPENDIX A. ANNUAL SYSTEM RIDERSHIP Table A-1. Growth in Annual Transfort Ridership, 2010 to 2017 Metric 2010 2013 20141 2015 2016 2017 CAGR2 (2010 - 2013) CAGR (2014 - 2017) (3a) Annual systemwide boardings 2,034,195 2,296,511 2,611,642 3,266,194 4,083,459 4,340,929 4.1% 18.5% (4a) Annual boardings for corridor routes 432,409 453,754 743,345 991,159 1,400,726 1,471,288 1.6% 25.6% (5a) Annual boardings for CSU routes (non-corridor) 897,295 1,018,010 1,106,613 1,429,217 1,690,827 1,854,363 4.3% 18.8% (6a) Annual boardings for non-CSU routes (non-corridor) 700,863 797,556 735,936 814,616 982,596 968,583 4.4% 9.6% Note: 1 Annual boardings in 2014 include all boardings on any route operating during 2014, including the time period when MAX was offering free rides. 2 CAGR indicates the Compound Annual Growth Rate. Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 34 APPENDIX B. ACTUAL RIDERSHIP, AFTER PROJECT OPENING B.1. Expanded Districts Figure 2-1. Expanded Districts – Regional Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 35 Figure 3-2. Expanded Districts – Fort Collins Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 36 B.2. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project: Total Trips reported in this section reflect average weekday daily linked trips on the project, based on a 2017 on- board survey. Table Error! No text of specified style in document.-1. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project: Total PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 123 404 220 206 23 4 109 16 43 1,146 (2) CSU 206 26 241 147 8 - 80 - 16 723 (3) Mid Mason 341 512 124 167 4 8 31 - 4 1,191 (4) South Mason 353 372 144 - 8 - 23 - 19 920 (5) East Fort Collins 58 39 4 8 12 - 16 - - 136 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 31 70 47 16 8 - - - - 171 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 169 260 124 16 19 - - 8 16 612 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - 23 16 12 - - - - - 50 All Other 81 120 54 27 - - - 12 8 303 Total 1,363 1,826 973 598 81 12 259 35 105 5,251 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 37 B.3. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project: by Trip Purpose Trips reported in this section reflect average weekday daily linked trips on the project, based on a 2017 on- board survey. Table B-2. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Trip Purpose: Home-based Work PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - 23 54 74 - - 23 - 8 182 (2) CSU 31 - 31 47 - - 8 - - 116 (3) Mid Mason 93 62 31 35 - - 16 - - 237 (4) South Mason 85 62 16 - 8 - 8 - 12 190 (5) East Fort Collins 16 23 4 - 12 - 8 - - 62 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - 23 16 8 8 - - - - 54 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 39 54 23 - 8 - - 8 - 132 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - 16 8 8 - - - - - 31 All Other 23 39 31 8 - - - 8 8 116 Total 287 303 213 178 35 - 62 16 27 1,121 Table B-3. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Trip Purpose: Home-based University PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - 144 - - - - - - - 144 (2) CSU - 10 - - - - - - - 10 (3) Mid Mason - 279 - - - - - - - 279 (4) South Mason - 225 - - - - - - - 225 (5) East Fort Collins - 16 - - - - - - - 16 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - 47 - - - - - - - 47 (7) Southwest Fort Collins - 109 - - - - - - - 109 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other - 70 - - - - - - - 70 Total - 899 - - - - - - - 899 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 38 Table B-4. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Trip Purpose: Home-based Other PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 54 47 70 54 8 - 62 8 12 314 (2) CSU 39 - 23 39 - - 18 - 8 127 (3) Mid Mason 151 47 27 66 4 - 8 - 4 307 (4) South Mason 171 35 97 - - - 16 - 8 326 (5) East Fort Collins 27 - - 8 - - 8 - - 43 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 27 - 31 8 - - - - - 66 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 92 39 39 - - - - - 8 177 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - 8 - 4 - - - - - 12 All Other 54 4 16 - - - - - 0 74 Total 616 178 303 178 12 - 111 8 39 1,445 Table B-5. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Trip Purpose: Non-home-based PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 69 190 96 78 16 4 23 8 23 506 (2) CSU 136 16 186 62 8 - 54 - 8 469 (3) Mid Mason 97 124 66 66 - 8 8 - - 369 (4) South Mason 97 50 31 - - - - - - 178 (5) East Fort Collins 16 - - - - - - - - 16 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 4 - - - - - - - - 4 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 39 58 62 16 12 - - - 8 194 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - 8 - - - - - - 8 All Other 4 8 8 19 - - - 4 0 43 Total 460 446 457 241 35 12 85 12 39 1,786 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 39 B.4. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project: by Trip Purpose for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only Trips reported in this section reflect average weekday daily linked trips on the project made by C SU students, faulty, or staff, based on a 2017 on-board survey. Table B-6. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Trip Purpose, for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only: Home-based Work PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - 16 8 4 - - - - - 27 (2) CSU 8 - 16 31 - - - - - 54 (3) Mid Mason 23 47 16 8 - - - - - 93 (4) South Mason 8 54 8 - - - - - - 70 (5) East Fort Collins 8 23 - - - - - - - 31 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - 23 16 - - - - - - 39 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 16 54 8 - 8 - - 8 - 93 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - 16 - - - - - - - 16 All Other 8 31 - - - - - - - 39 Total 70 264 70 43 8 - - 8 - 462 Table B-7. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Trip Purpose, for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only: Home-based University PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - 144 - - - - - - - 144 (2) CSU - 10 - - - - - - - 10 (3) Mid Mason - 279 - - - - - - - 279 (4) South Mason - 225 - - - - - - - 225 (5) East Fort Collins - 16 - - - - - - - 16 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - 47 - - - - - - - 47 (7) Southwest Fort Collins - 109 - - - - - - - 109 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other - 70 - - - - - - - 70 Total - 899 - - - - - - - 899 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 40 Table B-8. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Trip Purpose, for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only: Home-based Other PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 16 8 23 8 - - 8 - - 62 (2) CSU 16 - 23 8 - - 8 - 8 62 (3) Mid Mason 54 - 8 39 - - - - - 101 (4) South Mason 39 - 58 - - - - - - 97 (5) East Fort Collins 8 - - - - - - - - 8 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 23 - 16 - - - - - - 39 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 27 16 23 - - - - - - 66 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other 8 - 8 - - - - - (0) 16 Total 190 23 159 54 - - 16 - 8 450 Table B-9. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Trip Purpose, for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only: Non home-based PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 8 136 31 16 - - 8 8 8 213 (2) CSU 78 8 116 43 8 - 31 - 8 291 (3) Mid Mason 31 109 39 23 - - 8 - - 210 (4) South Mason 47 39 8 - - - - - - 93 (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (7) Southwest Fort Collins - 43 35 8 - - - - - 85 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - 8 - - - - - - 8 All Other - 8 - - - - - - 0 8 Total 163 341 237 89 8 - 47 8 16 908 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 41 B.5. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project: by Access Mode Trips reported in this section reflect average weekday daily linked trips on the project, based on a 2017 on- board survey. Table B-10. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Access Mode: Park & Ride PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 8 39 8 - - - - - - 54 (2) CSU - - 23 - - - 8 - - 31 (3) Mid Mason 101 210 16 - - - - - - 326 (4) South Mason 78 132 39 - - - - - - 248 (5) East Fort Collins 16 31 - - - - - - - 47 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 23 54 47 - - - - - - 124 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 54 178 78 - - - - 8 - 318 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - 8 - - - - - - 8 All Other 8 93 16 - - - - - (0) 116 Total 287 737 233 - - - 8 8 - 1,273 Table B-11. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Access Mode: Kiss & Ride PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 8 16 - - - - - - 8 31 (2) CSU - - - - - - 8 - - 8 (3) Mid Mason - 16 - 8 - - - - 4 27 (4) South Mason 16 - - - - - - - - 16 (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (7) Southwest Fort Collins 23 31 - - 4 - - - - 58 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other - - - - - - - - - - Total 47 62 - 8 4 - 8 - 12 140 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 42 Table B-12. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Access Mode: Bus (Transfer) PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 6 8 3 8 - - 8 - - 32 (2) CSU 4 3 4 8 - - 3 - - 21 (3) Mid Mason 4 4 - 4 - - - - - 12 (4) South Mason - 4 4 - - - - - - 8 (5) East Fort Collins - - 4 - - - - - - 4 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 4 8 - - - - - - - 12 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 14 4 8 - - - - - - 26 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - 4 - - - - - 4 All Other 16 12 8 - - - - - - 35 Total 48 41 30 23 - - 10 - - 153 Table B-13. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Access Mode: Bike PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - 16 31 39 - - 31 - - 116 (2) CSU 23 16 39 31 - - 23 - - 132 (3) Mid Mason 23 39 - 31 - - - - - 93 (4) South Mason 23 23 16 - - - 16 - 8 85 (5) East Fort Collins 16 - - - - - - - - 16 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - 8 - 8 - - - - - 16 (7) Southwest Fort Collins - - 8 - 8 - - - 8 23 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - 8 - - - - - - 8 All Other 8 - - - - - - - 8 16 Total 93 101 101 109 8 - 70 - 23 504 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 43 Table B-14. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Access Mode: Walk PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 101 303 178 151 23 4 70 16 35 881 (2) CSU 178 8 175 109 8 - 39 - 16 532 (3) Mid Mason 198 213 109 116 4 8 31 - - 679 (4) South Mason 229 206 85 - 8 - 8 - 12 547 (5) East Fort Collins 27 8 - 8 12 - 16 - - 70 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 4 - - 8 8 - - - - 19 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 78 47 31 8 8 - - - 8 178 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - 23 - 8 - - - - - 31 All Other 50 16 31 27 - - - 12 0 136 Total 865 823 609 435 70 12 163 27 70 3,073 B.6. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project: by Auto Availability Trips reported in this section reflect average weekday daily linked trips on the project, based on a 2017 on- board survey. Table B-15. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability: 0 Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 50 101 85 97 16 4 62 16 4 435 (2) CSU 39 10 54 43 - - 16 - - 162 (3) Mid Mason 81 74 23 70 4 - 8 - 4 264 (4) South Mason 81 43 35 - - - 16 - 4 178 (5) East Fort Collins 16 8 4 8 8 - - - - 43 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 4 - - 8 - - - - - 12 (6) Southwest Fort Collins 38 19 8 - 8 - - - 8 80 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - 8 8 - - - - - - 16 All Other 35 - 27 - - - - 4 0 66 Total 344 263 244 225 35 4 101 19 19 1,255 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 44 Table B-16. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability: 1 Auto PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 26 105 54 66 - - 23 - 39 313 (2) CSU 54 - 70 43 - - 8 - 16 190 (3) Mid Mason 85 175 47 50 - - - - - 357 (4) South Mason 97 116 23 - 8 - 8 - - 252 (5) East Fort Collins 12 8 - - 4 - - - - 23 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 8 31 16 8 - - - - - 62 (6) Southwest Fort Collins 54 39 16 16 - - - - 8 132 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - 8 - - - - - 8 All Other 19 35 - 8 - - - - 8 70 Total 356 508 225 198 12 - 39 - 70 1,407 Table B-17. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability: 2 Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 16 89 54 16 - - 8 - - 182 (2) CSU 31 8 66 23 8 - 16 - - 151 (3) Mid Mason 109 109 23 8 - - 16 - - 264 (4) South Mason 120 109 47 - - - - - 8 283 (5) East Fort Collins 16 8 - - - - - - - 23 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 4 12 16 - 8 - - - - 39 (6) Southwest Fort Collins 47 85 39 - 12 - - 8 - 190 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - 16 8 - - - - - - 23 All Other 23 35 8 8 - - - 8 - 81 Total 365 469 260 54 27 - 39 16 8 1,238 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 45 Table B-18. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability: 3 or More Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 8 54 16 - - - 8 - - 85 (2) CSU 27 - 16 16 - - 23 - - 81 (3) Mid Mason 54 109 16 16 - - - - - 194 (4) South Mason 39 70 23 - - - - - - 132 (5) East Fort Collins 16 16 - - - - - - - 31 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 16 27 8 - - - - - - 50 (6) Southwest Fort Collins 16 109 39 - - - - - - 163 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other 4 50 8 - - - - - - 62 Total 178 435 124 31 - - 31 - - 799 B.7. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project: by Auto Availability for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only Trips reported in this section reflect average weekday daily linked trips on the project made by CSU students, faulty, or staff, based on a 2017 on-board survey. Table B-19. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability, for CSU Students Only: 0 Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 16 78 16 16 - - - 8 - 132 (2) CSU 12 10 39 16 - - - - - 76 (3) Mid Mason 8 62 8 31 - - - - - 109 (4) South Mason 16 23 4 - - - - - - 43 (5) East Fort Collins 8 - - - - - - - - 8 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southwest Fort Collins 4 - 8 - - - - - - 12 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other - - - - - - - - - - Total 62 173 74 62 - - - 8 - 379 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 46 Table B-20. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability, for CSU Faculty and Staff Only: 0 Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - - - - - - - - - - (2) CSU 8 - - 8 - - - - - 16 (3) Mid Mason 8 4 - 8 - - - - - 19 (4) South Mason - 8 8 - - - - - - 16 (5) East Fort Collins - 8 - - - - - - - 8 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southwest Fort Collins - 12 - - - - - - - 12 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other - - - - - - - - - - Total 16 31 8 16 - - - - - 70 Table B-21. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability, for CSU Students Only: 1 Auto PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 8 74 16 12 - - - - 8 116 (2) CSU 47 - 23 27 - - 8 - 16 120 (3) Mid Mason 23 147 31 23 - - - - - 225 (4) South Mason 23 78 8 - - - - - - 109 (5) East Fort Collins - 8 - - - - - - - 8 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 8 23 8 - - - - - - 39 (6) Southwest Fort Collins 8 8 - 8 - - - - - 23 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other - 12 - - - - - - - 12 Total 116 349 85 70 - - 8 - 23 652 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 47 Table B-22. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability, for CSU Faculty and Staff Only: 1 Auto PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - 8 - - - - 16 - - 23 (2) CSU - - 31 - - - - - - 31 (3) Mid Mason 8 12 8 - - - - - - 27 (4) South Mason - 23 8 - - - - - - 31 (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - 8 - - - - - - - 8 (6) Southwest Fort Collins - 16 - - - - - - - 16 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other - 16 - - - - - - - 16 Total 8 81 47 - - - 16 - - 151 Table B-23. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability, for CSU Students Only: 2 Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - 89 16 - - - - - - 105 (2) CSU 8 - 31 16 8 - 16 - - 78 (3) Mid Mason 31 70 8 - - - 8 - - 116 (4) South Mason 16 85 23 - - - - - - 124 (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - 4 8 - - - - - - 12 (6) Southwest Fort Collins 8 62 19 - 8 - - - - 97 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - 8 - - - - - - 8 All Other 8 23 - - - - - - - 31 Total 70 334 113 16 16 - 23 - - 570 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 48 Table B-24. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability, for CSU Faculty and Staff Only: 2 Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - - 8 - - - - - - 8 (2) CSU 16 8 16 - - - - - - 39 (3) Mid Mason 8 31 - - - - - - - 39 (4) South Mason 23 23 8 - - - - - - 54 (5) East Fort Collins - 8 - - - - - - - 8 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - 8 8 - - - - - - 16 (6) Southwest Fort Collins 16 16 8 - - - - 8 - 47 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - 16 - - - - - - - 16 All Other 8 8 - - - - - - (0) 16 Total 70 116 47 - - - - 8 - 241 Table B-25. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability, for CSU Students Only: 3+ Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - 47 8 - - - - - - 54 (2) CSU 12 - 8 16 - - 8 - - 43 (3) Mid Mason 16 109 8 8 - - - - - 140 (4) South Mason 16 62 16 - - - - - - 93 (5) East Fort Collins 8 8 - - - - - - - 16 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 16 27 8 - - - - - - 50 (6) Southwest Fort Collins 8 85 31 - - - - - - 124 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other - 43 8 - - - - - (0) 50 Total 74 380 85 23 - - 8 - - 570 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 49 Table B-26. District-to-District Linked Trips on the Project by Auto Availability, for CSU Faculty and Staff Only: 3+ Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - - - - - - - - - - (2) CSU - - 8 - - - 8 - - 16 (3) Mid Mason 8 - - - - - - - - 8 (4) South Mason - - - - - - - - - - (5) East Fort Collins - 8 - - - - - - - 8 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southwest Fort Collins - 23 - - - - - - - 23 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other - 8 - - - - - - - 8 Total 8 39 8 - - - 8 - - 62 B.8. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide: Total Trips reported in this section reflect average weekday daily linked trips systemwide, based on a 2017 on- board survey. Table B-27. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Trip Purpose: Total PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 188 465 225 212 97 10 122 28 226 1,574 (2) CSU 235 837 410 147 14 10 100 231 135 2,119 (3) Mid Mason 381 1,617 234 173 99 20 54 58 119 2,756 (4) South Mason 353 472 157 12 37 7 55 6 70 1,169 (5) East Fort Collins 187 200 122 55 69 6 35 26 146 845 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 31 76 47 25 14 6 34 16 - 249 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 183 283 157 19 48 28 10 14 99 840 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 87 5,298 62 37 30 6 27 226 146 5,921 All Other 447 715 128 77 68 61 89 115 900 2,602 Total 2,093 9,963 1,542 758 477 155 526 722 1,841 18,076 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 50 B.9. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide: By Purpose Trips reported in this section reflect average weekday daily linked trips systemwide, based on a 2017 on- board survey. Table B-28. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Trip Purpose: Home-based Work PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 4 28 54 74 27 6 23 - 41 258 (2) CSU 34 42 38 47 - 3 14 5 6 189 (3) Mid Mason 100 96 52 35 47 - 16 17 48 411 (4) South Mason 85 69 16 6 25 7 20 - 26 253 (5) East Fort Collins 66 37 42 25 18 - 20 7 65 281 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - 23 16 8 8 6 6 - - 67 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 45 54 23 3 27 6 - 8 17 183 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 17 206 24 24 12 6 7 6 12 314 All Other 102 70 50 26 23 42 6 14 216 549 Total 453 626 314 248 186 76 113 57 430 2,504 Table B-29. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Trip Purpose: Home-based University PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - 183 - - - - - - - 183 (2) CSU - 274 - - - - - - - 274 (3) Mid Mason - 922 - - - - - - - 922 (4) South Mason - 298 - - - - - - - 298 (5) East Fort Collins - 115 - - - - - - - 115 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - 53 - - - - - - - 53 (7) Southwest Fort Collins - 119 - - - - - - - 119 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - 4,226 - - - - - - - 4,226 All Other - 427 - - - - - - - 427 Total - 6,616 - - - - - - - 6,616 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 51 Table B-30. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Trip Purpose: Home-based Other PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 71 51 75 54 25 - 69 14 74 434 (2) CSU 61 107 52 39 - - 25 117 49 449 (3) Mid Mason 184 182 88 66 45 - 24 34 47 670 (4) South Mason 171 48 107 6 12 - 35 6 36 421 (5) East Fort Collins 62 28 70 23 38 6 8 16 39 290 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 27 - 31 17 6 - 15 9 - 106 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 92 45 58 - 6 9 10 6 32 259 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 53 569 24 11 18 - 20 151 98 944 All Other 214 82 64 13 32 16 73 84 433 1,011 Total 934 1,112 568 229 183 32 278 439 808 4,584 Table B-31. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Trip Purpose: Non-home-based PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 114 202 96 84 45 4 30 14 112 700 (2) CSU 141 413 320 62 14 6 61 109 80 1,207 (3) Mid Mason 97 417 94 73 7 20 15 7 24 754 (4) South Mason 97 57 35 - - - - - 8 197 (5) East Fort Collins 59 20 10 6 13 - 7 3 42 160 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 4 - - - - - 12 7 - 23 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 46 65 75 16 15 13 - - 51 280 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 18 298 15 2 - - - 70 36 438 All Other 131 136 15 38 14 3 10 16 251 615 Total 706 1,608 659 281 108 46 135 226 603 4,372 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 52 B.10. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide: By Access Mode Trips reported in this section reflect average weekday daily linked trips systemwide, based on a 2017 on- board survey. Table B-32. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Access Mode: Park & Ride PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 11 39 8 - - - - - 3 61 (2) CSU - 7 23 - - - 8 - - 38 (3) Mid Mason 101 380 37 - - - - 7 7 532 (4) South Mason 78 139 39 - - - - - 7 262 (5) East Fort Collins 23 31 - - - - - - - 54 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 23 54 47 - - - - - - 124 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 54 178 78 - - - - 8 3 321 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 5 118 8 - - - - 5 - 135 All Other 14 148 22 - - - - - 52 236 Total 309 1,094 261 - - - 8 20 73 1,764 Table B-33. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Access Mode: Kiss & Ride PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 8 16 - - - - - - 8 31 (2) CSU - 7 - - - - 8 - 6 20 (3) Mid Mason - 19 - 8 - - - 7 4 38 (4) South Mason 16 - 6 - - - - - - 22 (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (7) Southwest Fort Collins 23 31 7 - 4 - - - 7 71 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 6 5 - - - - - - - 12 All Other 3 7 6 3 - - - - 25 45 Total 56 85 19 11 4 - 8 7 49 239 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 53 Table B-34. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Access Mode: Bus (Transfer) PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 14 8 3 14 - - 8 - 12 59 (2) CSU 7 17 4 8 - - 3 3 3 43 (3) Mid Mason 4 14 - 4 3 - - - 9 35 (4) South Mason - 4 4 - 3 - - - 2 13 (5) East Fort Collins - - 7 - - - - - 5 12 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 4 8 - 3 6 - 3 3 - 27 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 14 11 11 3 9 9 - - 12 69 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - 25 - 6 2 - - 2 5 41 All Other 21 14 12 3 13 3 6 3 25 99 Total 63 99 41 41 37 13 19 11 74 398 Table B-35. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Access Mode: Bike PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 7 16 31 39 20 - 31 - 20 163 (2) CSU 28 28 53 31 - - 30 5 6 182 (3) Mid Mason 23 60 7 31 6 - - 12 - 139 (4) South Mason 23 37 16 - 13 - 16 - 14 118 (5) East Fort Collins 56 14 42 6 13 6 - - 25 164 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - 8 - 8 - - 6 - - 22 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 7 - 8 - 8 - - - 21 43 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - 127 8 6 - - - - 7 148 All Other 46 6 - - - - 19 - 130 202 Total 190 295 165 121 61 6 102 17 223 1,180 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 54 Table B-36. District-to-District Linked Trips Systemwide by Access Mode: Walk PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 149 364 184 151 77 10 83 28 169 1,216 (2) CSU 200 764 330 109 14 10 52 223 103 1,804 (3) Mid Mason 238 1,086 183 123 90 20 54 32 99 1,925 (4) South Mason 229 265 92 12 21 7 39 6 48 719 (5) East Fort Collins 108 155 66 48 55 - 35 26 101 594 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 4 - - 14 8 6 25 13 - 69 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 85 63 54 8 27 19 10 6 57 327 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 76 4,988 40 25 28 6 27 219 129 5,537 All Other 344 440 88 72 56 52 58 101 609 1,818 Total 1,433 8,124 1,036 562 375 129 383 656 1,314 14,011 B.11. Daily Boardings by Route Boardings reported in this section reflect average weekday daily boardings by route for fall 2017. Table B-37. 2017 Average Fall Weekday Daily Boardings Route Average Weekday Daily Boardings 2 957 3 2,025 5 311 6 446 7 756 8 620 9 125 10 122 12 243 14 238 16 399 18 327 19 504 31 2,535 32 915 33 61 81 326 92 28 FLEX 801 GOLD 87 HORN 1,849 MAX 5,547 Total 19,222 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 55 APPENDIX C. ACTUAL RIDERSHIP, BEFORE THE PROJECT C.1. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor, Before: Total Trips reported in this section reflect average weekday daily linked trips in the corridor, before the project, based on a 2013 on-board survey. Table C-1. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor: Total PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 53 55 65 72 10 15 21 17 84 392 (2) CSU 36 2 5 - 4 - - 1 24 72 (3) Mid Mason 100 25 21 36 - 1 21 1 56 261 (4) South Mason 51 15 10 - 13 - 5 10 33 138 (5) East Fort Collins 30 2 26 15 4 - - 2 19 98 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 5 10 5 - - 5 5 3 26 59 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 17 - 5 - 10 - 5 5 - 43 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 37 2 12 7 18 - 2 13 46 136 All Other 56 36 42 24 12 5 21 8 203 406 Total 385 147 192 154 71 27 79 60 491 1,605 C.2. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor, Before: by Trip Purpose Trips reported in this section reflect average weekday daily linked trips in the corridor, before the project, based on a 2013 on-board survey. Table C-2. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Trip Purpose: Home-based Work PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - 5 15 21 - 5 5 9 10 71 (2) CSU - - - - 2 - - - 2 4 (3) Mid Mason 22 5 10 5 - 1 - - 1 45 (4) South Mason 15 - 5 - 5 - - 5 5 36 (5) East Fort Collins 10 - 21 10 2 - - - 10 53 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - 5 - - - - - 5 10 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 5 - - - - - - - - 5 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 16 - - - 2 - - 6 18 42 All Other 24 - 12 8 5 - - 2 40 91 Total 94 10 69 44 16 6 5 22 91 356 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 56 Table C-3. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Trip Purpose: Home-based University PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 12 24 - - - - 5 2 4 47 (2) CSU 2 2 - - - - - - - 4 (3) Mid Mason 26 8 5 5 - - 10 1 10 65 (4) South Mason 15 15 - - - - - - - 31 (5) East Fort Collins 5 2 - - - - - - 2 9 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - 10 - - - - 5 - - 15 (7) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - - - 5 - - 5 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - 2 - - - - - 1 - 3 All Other 5 15 - 5 - - 21 - 31 77 Total 65 77 5 10 - - 46 4 48 255 Table C-4. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Trip Purpose: Home-based Other PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 7 - 14 15 5 5 5 - 32 84 (2) CSU 2 - 1 - - - - - 2 5 (3) Mid Mason 29 - 6 15 - - 10 - 29 91 (4) South Mason 5 - 5 - 8 - - - 10 28 (5) East Fort Collins 2 - 5 5 - - - - - 12 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - 3 15 18 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 2 - - - 10 - - 5 - 17 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 18 - 12 7 16 - 2 5 25 85 All Other 19 - 18 11 2 - - 2 50 101 Total 85 - 61 54 41 5 17 14 164 441 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 57 Table C-5. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Trip Purpose: Non-home-based PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 35 26 36 36 5 5 5 5 38 192 (2) CSU 32 - 4 - 2 - - 1 21 60 (3) Mid Mason 22 12 - 10 - - - - 15 60 (4) South Mason 15 - - - - - 5 5 17 43 (5) East Fort Collins 13 - - - 2 - - 2 7 24 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 5 - - - - 5 - - 5 15 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 10 - 5 - - - - - - 15 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 2 - - - - - - 2 3 7 All Other 7 22 12 - 5 5 - 4 82 138 Total 142 60 57 46 14 15 10 20 189 553 C.3. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor, Before: by Trip Purpose for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only Trips reported in this section reflect average weekday daily linked trips made by CSU students, faulty, or staff only in the corridor, before the project, based on a 2013 on-board survey. Table C-6. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Trip Purpose, for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only: Home-based Work PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - 5 - - - - - - - 5 (2) CSU - - - - - - - - - - (3) Mid Mason 5 5 - - - - - - - 10 (4) South Mason - - - - - - - - - - (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (7) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other 2 - - - - - - - - 2 Total 7 10 - - - - - - - 17 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 58 Table C-7. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Trip Purpose, for CSU Students, Faculty, and Sta ff Only: Home-based University PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 4 16 - - - - - - - 20 (2) CSU 2 - - - - - - - - 2 (3) Mid Mason 21 8 5 5 - - - - 5 44 (4) South Mason 10 10 - - - - - - - 21 (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - 10 - - - - 5 - - 15 (7) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - 1 - 1 All Other 5 6 - - - - 15 - 15 42 Total 42 50 5 5 - - 21 1 21 144 Table C-8. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Trip Purpose, for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only: Home-based Other PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 5 - 5 5 - - - - 6 21 (2) CSU 2 - 1 - - - - - 2 5 (3) Mid Mason 5 - - - - - 5 - 5 15 (4) South Mason - - - - - - - - - - (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - 5 5 (7) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (8) Northwest Fort Collins 6 - - - 2 - 2 1 2 12 All Other 7 - - - - - - - 13 20 Total 25 - 6 5 2 - 7 1 33 79 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 59 Table C-9. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Trip Purpose, for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only: Non-home-based PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - 13 10 15 - - - - 12 51 (2) CSU 27 - 4 - - - - 1 17 48 (3) Mid Mason 12 - - 5 - - - - - 17 (4) South Mason - - - - - - - - - - (5) East Fort Collins 5 - - - - - - - - 5 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (7) Southwest Fort Collins 5 - - - - - - - - 5 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 2 - - - - - - 2 1 5 All Other 2 4 5 - - - - - 22 32 Total 53 17 19 21 - - - 3 52 164 C.4. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor , Before: by Access Mode Trips reported in this section reflect average weekday daily linked trips in the corridor, before the project, based on a 2013 on-board survey. Table C-10. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Access Mode: Park & Ride PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - 2 - - - 5 - - - 7 (2) CSU - - - - - - - - - - (3) Mid Mason - - - - - - - - - - (4) South Mason - - - - - - - - - - (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (7) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other 5 2 - - - - - - 5 12 Total 5 4 - - - 5 - - 5 19 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 60 Table C-11. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Access Mode: Kiss & Ride PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - - - - - - - 2 3 4 (2) CSU - - - - - - - - - - (3) Mid Mason 2 - - - - - - - - 2 (4) South Mason - - - - - - - - - - (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (7) Southwest Fort Collins 5 - - - - - - - - 5 (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other - - 5 - 5 - - - 7 17 Total 7 - 5 - 5 - - 2 10 29 Table C-12. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Access Mode: Bus (Transfer) PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - - - - - - - - 7 7 (2) CSU - - - - - - - - - - (3) Mid Mason - - - - - - - - 5 5 (4) South Mason 5 - - - - - - - - 5 (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (7) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - 2 2 All Other 5 2 5 - - - - - 17 29 Total 10 2 5 - - - - - 31 49 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 61 Table C-13. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Access Mode: Bike PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 5 - - 5 - - - - 7 17 (2) CSU 4 2 - - 2 - - - 2 9 (3) Mid Mason - 5 - - - - 5 - 5 15 (4) South Mason 5 - - - - - - - - 5 (5) East Fort Collins 5 - - - - - - - - 5 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - 10 - - - - - - 10 21 (7) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - 2 - - - - 2 All Other 5 7 - 5 - - - - 5 22 Total 24 24 - 10 4 - 5 - 29 97 Table C-14. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Access Mode: Walk PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 48 53 65 62 10 10 21 15 68 352 (2) CSU 31 - 5 - 2 - - 1 23 61 (3) Mid Mason 96 15 21 36 - 1 15 1 46 231 (4) South Mason 41 15 10 - 13 - 5 10 33 128 (5) East Fort Collins 25 2 26 15 4 - - 2 19 93 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 5 - 5 - - 5 5 3 15 38 (7) Southwest Fort Collins 12 - 5 - 10 - 5 5 - 38 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 37 2 12 7 16 - 2 13 44 133 All Other 40 20 30 19 7 5 21 8 151 301 Total 335 107 179 139 62 21 74 58 399 1,374 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 62 C.5. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor, Before: by Auto Availability Trips reported in this section reflect average weekday daily linked trips in the corridor, before the project, based on a 2013 on-board survey. Table C-15. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability: 0 Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 25 23 38 46 5 10 5 8 35 195 (2) CSU 25 2 4 - 2 - - - 15 47 (3) Mid Mason 22 4 5 15 - - 5 - 38 90 (4) South Mason 10 - 10 - 8 - - 5 22 56 (5) East Fort Collins 15 2 15 10 2 - - - 9 54 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 5 - - - - 5 - 3 10 23 (6) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - 10 - 5 5 - 21 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 20 - 7 7 12 - 2 6 25 78 All Other 24 8 31 16 5 5 5 2 107 204 Total 147 38 111 95 44 21 22 29 261 768 Table C-16. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability: 1 Auto PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 7 15 26 15 - - 10 4 25 102 (2) CSU 4 - 1 - - - - - 1 6 (3) Mid Mason 22 10 11 5 - - 5 - 3 57 (4) South Mason 21 15 - - - - 5 - - 41 (5) East Fort Collins 10 - 5 5 - - - 2 - 22 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - 5 - - - - - 10 15 (6) Southwest Fort Collins 17 - 5 - - - - - - 22 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 4 - 5 - 6 - - 2 18 35 All Other 5 14 11 5 5 - 5 2 30 77 Total 90 55 69 31 11 - 26 9 87 378 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 63 Table C-17. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability: 2 Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 9 15 2 5 - - 5 - 2 38 (2) CSU 2 - - - - - - - 4 6 (3) Mid Mason 15 5 - 15 - 1 - 1 - 38 (4) South Mason 15 - - - 5 - - - 5 26 (5) East Fort Collins 2 - - - - - - - 5 7 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - 10 - - - - - - - 10 (6) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (8) Northwest Fort Collins 6 - - - - - - 2 2 9 All Other 15 4 - - - - 10 4 19 53 Total 64 34 2 21 5 1 15 7 37 187 Table C-18. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability: 3 or More Aut os PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 6 - - - 5 - - 3 10 24 (2) CSU 2 - - - - - - 1 1 4 (3) Mid Mason 28 - - - - - 5 - - 33 (4) South Mason - - - - - - - - - - (5) East Fort Collins 3 - - - - - - - - 3 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - 5 5 (6) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (8) Northwest Fort Collins 6 2 - - - - - 2 - 9 All Other 7 6 - - - - - - 5 17 Total 51 8 - - 5 - 5 5 21 95 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 64 C.6. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor, Before: by Auto Availability for CSU Students, Faculty, and Staff Only Trips reported in this section reflect average weekday daily linked trips made by CSU students, faulty, or staff only in the corridor, before the project, based on a 2013 on-board survey. Table C-19. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability, for CSU Students Only: 0 Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - 9 5 15 - - - - 5 35 (2) CSU 21 - 4 - - - - - 13 38 (3) Mid Mason 5 3 - 5 - - - - 10 23 (4) South Mason - - - - - - - - - - (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - 5 5 (6) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (8) Northwest Fort Collins 2 - - - - - 2 2 2 8 All Other 5 2 5 - - - 5 - 23 40 Total 33 14 14 21 - - 7 2 58 149 Table C-20. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability, for CSU Faculty and Staff Only: 0 Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - - - - - - - - - - (2) CSU - - - - - - - - - - (3) Mid Mason - - - - - - - - - - (4) South Mason - - - - - - - - - - (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other - - - - - - - - - - Total - - - - - - - - - - Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 65 Table C-21. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability, for CSU Students Only: 1 Auto PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 2 7 10 5 - - - - 8 32 (2) CSU 4 - 1 - - - - - 1 6 (3) Mid Mason 10 - 5 - - - - - - 15 (4) South Mason 5 10 - - - - - - - 15 (5) East Fort Collins 5 - - - - - - - - 5 (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southwest Fort Collins 5 - - - - - - - - 5 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 2 - - - 2 - - - - 4 All Other - 2 - - - - - - 18 20 Total 33 19 16 5 2 - - - 27 102 Table C-22. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability, for CSU Faculty and Staff Only: 1 Auto PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - 5 - - - - - - - 5 (2) CSU - - - - - - - - - - (3) Mid Mason - 5 - - - - - - - 5 (4) South Mason - - - - - - - - - - (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other - - - - - - - - - - Total - 10 - - - - - - - 10 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 66 Table C-23. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability, for CSU Students Only: 2 Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown 2 11 - - - - - - - 13 (2) CSU - - - - - - - - 4 4 (3) Mid Mason 10 5 - 5 - - - - - 21 (4) South Mason 5 - - - - - - - - 5 (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - 10 - - - - - - - 10 (6) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (8) Northwest Fort Collins 2 - - - - - - 2 - 4 All Other 5 2 - - - - 10 - 7 24 Total 24 29 - 5 - - 10 2 11 81 Table C-24. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability, for CSU Faculty and Staff Only: 2 Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - - - - - - - - - - (2) CSU - - - - - - - - - - (3) Mid Mason - - - - - - - - - - (4) South Mason - - - - - - - - - - (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other - - - - - - - - - - Total - - - - - - - - - - Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 67 Table C-25. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability, for CSU Students Only: 3+ Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - - - - - - - - 5 5 (2) CSU 2 - - - - - - 1 1 4 (3) Mid Mason 17 - - - - - - - - 17 (4) South Mason - - - - - - - - - - (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (8) Northwest Fort Collins 2 - - - - - - - - 2 All Other 2 4 - - - - - - 2 8 Total 23 4 - - - - - 1 8 36 Table C-26. District-to-District Linked Trips in the Corridor by Auto Availability, for CSU Faculty and Staff Only: 3+ Autos PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT Total (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other (1) Downtown - - - - - - - - - - (2) CSU - - - - - - - - - - (3) Mid Mason - - - - - - - - - - (4) South Mason - - - - - - - - - - (5) East Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southeast Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (6) Southwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - (8) Northwest Fort Collins - - - - - - - - - - All Other - - - - - - - - - - Total - - - - - - - - - - Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 68 C.7. Daily Boardings by Route Boardings reported in this section reflect average weekday daily boardings by route for fall 2014. Table C-27. 2014 Average Fall Weekday Daily Boardings Route Average Weekday Daily Boardings 1 1,252 2 912 3 1,345 5 347 6 509 7 393 8 383 81 261 9 193 91 10 92 31 11 1,803 14 228 15 408 16 281 17 166 18 342 19 504 FLEX 593 Total Routes 9,962 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 69 APPENDIX D. PREDICTED RIDERSHIP D.1. District-to-District Predicted Linked Trips on the Project: Total Trips reported in this section reflect the predicted average weekday daily linked trips on the project. Table D-1. District-to-District Predicted Linked Trips on the Project: Total PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other Total (1) Downtown 164 966 80 26 25 19 8 6 21 1,315 (2) CSU 11 0 6 3 1 2 1 0 2 27 (3) Mid Mason 124 795 129 55 42 39 17 4 31 1,236 (4) South Mason 39 121 51 31 19 19 12 2 13 308 (5) East Fort Collins 32 20 36 13 12 11 4 1 14 144 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 35 40 41 15 10 5 5 2 14 167 (6) Southwest Fort Collins 18 25 25 19 9 11 5 2 8 121 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 38 34 40 22 15 17 8 1 27 201 All Other 68 172 90 48 57 43 14 8 34 535 Total 529 2,173 497 231 190 168 74 27 165 4,054 D.2. District-to-District Predicted Linked Trips on the Project: by Trip Purpose Table D-2. District-to-District Predicted Linked Trips on the Project: Home-based Work PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other Total (1) Downtown 82 9 40 11 11 10 3 1 6 173 (2) CSU 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 (3) Mid Mason 83 23 66 22 22 20 8 0 10 254 (4) South Mason 26 8 24 8 8 7 3 0 4 90 (5) East Fort Collins 18 3 16 4 3 3 1 0 3 51 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 26 8 25 6 2 1 1 0 4 73 (6) Southwest Fort Collins 12 4 12 5 3 3 1 0 2 43 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 17 1 13 5 5 5 2 0 4 53 All Other 33 14 35 11 13 12 2 0 5 125 Total 297 71 232 73 67 61 23 2 38 864 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 70 Table D-3. District-to-District Predicted Linked Trips on the Project: Home-based University PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other Total (1) Downtown 0 952 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 952 (2) CSU 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (3) Mid Mason 0 769 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 769 (4) South Mason 0 111 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 111 (5) East Fort Collins 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 0 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 (6) Southwest Fort Collins 0 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 0 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 All Other 0 157 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 157 Total 0 2090 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2090 Table D-4. District-to-District Predicted Linked Trips on the Project: Home-based Other PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other Total (1) Downtown 24 0 15 5 9 4 2 2 9 70 (2) CSU 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 4 (3) Mid Mason 19 0 29 16 15 11 5 2 15 112 (4) South Mason 6 0 10 8 7 6 3 1 6 48 (5) East Fort Collins 7 0 13 6 8 7 2 1 9 52 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 7 0 12 6 7 4 3 1 8 47 (6) Southwest Fort Collins 4 0 6 5 5 4 2 1 5 32 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 19 0 24 16 9 11 5 0 23 107 All Other 32 0 48 33 41 29 10 8 28 229 Total 119 0 157 95 101 76 32 17 104 699 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0 CITY OF FORT COLLINS – MAX BUS RAPID TRANSIT PROJECT BEFORE & AFTER STUDY Page 71 Table D-5. District-to-District Predicted Linked Trips on the Project: Non-home-based PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other Total (1) Downtown 58 5 25 10 6 5 3 4 5 121 (2) CSU 8 0 6 2 0 1 1 0 1 19 (3) Mid Mason 22 3 33 17 6 8 5 2 6 101 (4) South Mason 7 1 17 15 4 6 6 1 3 59 (5) East Fort Collins 7 0 7 4 2 2 1 0 2 25 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 3 0 5 2 1 1 1 0 2 15 (6) Southwest Fort Collins 3 0 6 8 1 3 2 0 1 26 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 2 0 2 2 0 1 1 0 1 8 All Other 3 1 8 4 3 3 1 1 1 26 Total 113 12 108 63 23 30 20 8 23 400 D.3. District-to-District Predicted Linked Trips Systemwide: Total Trips reported in this section reflect the predicted average weekday daily linked trips systemwide. Table D-6. District-to-District Predicted Linked Trips Systemwide: Total PRODUCTION DISTRICT ATTRACTION DISTRICT (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Other Total (1) Downtown 201 1,560 90 27 45 19 8 16 48 2,014 (2) CSU 24 0 16 4 8 2 1 8 5 68 (3) Mid Mason 141 1,274 201 79 73 42 20 18 38 1,885 (4) South Mason 41 139 73 50 24 27 18 5 17 393 (5) East Fort Collins 54 166 60 26 57 31 6 5 19 425 (6) Southeast Fort Collins 36 40 45 33 38 39 13 2 17 263 (6) Southwest Fort Collins 18 25 27 22 10 14 7 2 12 137 (8) Northwest Fort Collins 141 1,187 95 29 40 17 8 82 47 1,645 All Other 169 285 126 67 66 52 27 34 1,709 2,533 Total 824 4,676 733 336 359 243 109 173 2,796 9,364 Docusign Envelope ID: F1EE5AA1-9120-401B-9371-51F6C9E0ACC0