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HomeMy WebLinkAboutMemo - Mail Packet - 9/26/2023 - Memorandum From Ryan Mounce Re: Population & School Enrollment Growth Trends Planning, Development & Transportation Community Development & Neighborhood Services 281 N. College Ave. PO Box 580 Fort Collins, CO 80522 970.416.2350 970.224.6134 FAX www.fcgov.com MEMORANDUM DATE: September 21, 2023 TO: Mayor Arndt and City Councilmembers THRU: Kelly DiMartino, City Manager Tyler Marr, Deputy City Manager Caryn Champine, Planning, Development & Transportation Director Paul Sizemore, Community Development & Neighborhood Services Director Clay Frickey, Interim Planning Manager FROM: Ryan Mounce, City Planner RE: Population & School Enrollment Growth Trends The purpose of this memo is to provide information on recent population and school enrollment growth requested at the September 11, 2023, Leadership Planning Team meeting. Bottom Line Over the past 10-years, population growth in Fort Collins has decelerated and outpaced student enrollment growth for both Colorado State University (CSU) and Poudre School District (PSD). The 10- year growth rate for Fort Collins was 14.4% while enrollment growth at CSU and PSD was 3.2% and 7.2% respectively. Population Growth Rates Data for the numeric change and rate of growth for Fort Collins, Colorado, and the US over the prior decade (2013-2023) can be found in the tables below. Over this period, Fort Collins’ 10-year growth rate of 14.4% is higher than both Colorado and the nation and represents a numeric increase of approximately 22,000 persons over the 10-year period. A notable trend for all three geographies is a continuing deceleration in annual growth rates. At the national level, lower birth rates, lower immigration, and an increase in excess mortality during the COVID pandemic are often noted as contributing factors for the deceleration. Similar trends can also be noted for Fort Collins and Colorado. Locally, the price of housing/rent, and an ongoing reduction in developable land in the Growth Management Area are also likely contributing factors. City Plan and staff anticipate a continuing deceleration in the community ’s growth rate into the future. DocuSign Envelope ID: 70609C5E-695C-4344-8605-51607C61A949 Fort Collins Colorado US 2013 Population 152,511 5,270,884 316,128,839 2023 Population 174,445 5,913,110 333,287,557 10-yr Numeric Increase 21,934 642,226 17,158,718 10-yr Growth Rate 14.4% 12.2% 5.4% Year Annual Growth Rate Fort Collins Colorado US 2013 1.60% 1.47% 0.71% 2014 2.71% 1.46% 0.86% 2015 2.76% 1.85% 0.80% 2016 1.42% 1.52% 0.53% 2017 0.95% 1.27% 0.80% 2018 1.47% 1.38% 0.44% 2019 1.84% 1.02% 0.33% 2020 -0.21% 0.86% 0.98% 2021 0.46% 0.53% 0.13% 2022 1.71% 0.74% 0.42% 2023 0.44% 0.95% 0.28% Sources: US Census, Colorado Department of Local Affairs, City of Fort Collin s Colorado State University & Poudre School District Enrollment Yearly enrollment data for Colorado State University (CSU) and Poudre School District (PSD) can be found in the table below. CSU figures include total enrollment numbers, which includes in-person and online enrollment, and Resident Instruction (RI) enrollment, which only includes students attending on campus classes. PSD enrollment data includes all Pre-K through 12th grade students. Between 2013 and 2022, enrollment growth for CSU Resident Instruction was 3.2% and enrollment growth for PSD students was 7.9%. Similar to Fort Collins’s population, both institutions experienced a small decrease in enrollment around the time of the pandemic but have recently resumed growth. Year CSU Total Enrollment CSU Resident Instruction Enrollment Poudre School District Enrollment 2013 31,514 26,492 27,908 2014 31,725 26,553 28,439 2015 32,236 27,017 29,053 2016 33,198 27,730 29,527 2017 33,413 27,867 29,682 2018 33,877 28,095 30,019 2019 34,166 28,264 30,463 2020 32,765 27,218 30,764 2021 32,908 27,313 29,417 2022 33,455 27,334 29,941 2023 TBD TBD 30,105 Sources: Colorado State University, Poudre School District, Colorado Department of Education DocuSign Envelope ID: 70609C5E-695C-4344-8605-51607C61A949