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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOUNCIL - AGENDA ITEM - 07/11/2017 - BROADBAND UPDATEDATE: STAFF: July 11, 2017 SeonAh Kendall, Economic Policy & Project Manager Mike Beckstead, Chief Financial Officer WORK SESSION ITEM City Council SUBJECT FOR DISCUSSION Broadband Update. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this item is to provide Council an update on the Broadband Plan work. The discussion will be focused on the work since the May 2017 work session including: update on the request for proposal (RFP), learnings from the updated market demand study, retail model business plan, debt capacity and potential ballot language for the Utilities charter amendment. Additionally, staff will be seeking business model guidance and next steps. GENERAL DIRECTION SOUGHT AND SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED 1. Does Council have desire to further explore a fee/tax to reduce risk? 2. Does Council support bringing a ballot question forward in November? a. If so, Option 1 or Option 2? 3. Does Council prefer messaging the ballot question as: b. Focused on Municipal Retail Option Only? c. Question that allows 3rd Party or Municipal Retail alternatives? BACKGROUND / DISCUSSION City Broadband Strategic Objectives The FCC noted that the real culprit of slow, expensive internet in the U.S. is the lack of competition among providers. New broadband entrants into the market have a substantial impact on price and service. The City's 2016 Strategic Plan includes Strategic Objective 3.9 - “Encourage the development of reliable high speed internet services throughout the community”. The Broadband Plan overall objective is to bring reliable, Gig speed internet to the city of Fort Collins, while making an informed decision through evaluation of risk and opportunities. Broadband is defined by the FCC as internet download speed of 25 megabits per second (“Mbps”) and upload of 3 Mbps or faster. Additional benefits sought include:  Competitive pricing (residential market pricing at $70/month or less for 1 Gbps and an affordable internet tier);  Universal coverage across the Growth Management Area;  Underground service for improved reliability; and  Timely implementation to providing services within a reasonable timeframe (less than five years). During the May 9, 2017 work session, City Council provided feedback to complete a high-level retail model business plan, while also continuing to explore third-party and/or public/private partnerships through the issuance of a Request for Proposal (RFP). July 11, 2017 Page 2 Third Party Option (“3rd Party alternative”) A third-party model is similar to Google Fiber in Kansas City and Allo in Lincoln, NB. The municipality would look to attract and partner with a third party to come into the community, finance the network, operate the network and provide services directly or through other retail providers. Request for Proposal (RFP) for a Third Party On May 30, 2017, the City issued a Gigabit Speed Internet Request for Proposal (Attachment 2). The RFP sought to find a public/private partnership (P3) with an interested party to jointly implement and operate a citywide fiber- to-the-premise (FTTP) internet service business. The City issued the RFP to attract organizations that have expertise, experience and financing capability willing to partner with the City to leverage each party’s experience, while sharing the risks and benefits for providing high-speed, symmetrical, fiber-based solutions to the citizens of Fort Collins. The RFP closed on July 5, 2017. The City received 11 responses and is currently evaluating responses to create a short list of potential partners. Next steps also include initial interviews with the short listed partners, potential further discussions, as well as the determination of future direction and discussions. Municipal-owned Retail (“Retail Model”) The municipal utility/retail model is similar to the model that Longmont, CO is providing. The municipality would build and maintain the physical fiber infrastructure network to pass all premises. The municipality acts as the internet and voice service provider and manages all customer acquisition and services. The current model does not include video services; however, based on input from other communities, staff is still evaluating video as a potential option. High Level Business Plan – Retail Model City staff completed a high level business plan for the retail model, as a roadmap that lays out business goals, background information, critical assumptions, organizational structure, and pro forma financials (based on information and analysis completed by Uptown Services). The business plan is intended as a communication tool used to show a complete picture of the details, assumptions, risks and opportunities for decision makers to determine whether or not to enter the business. (Attachment 3) Previously, the City engaged Uptown Services to perform a statistically-valid citizen survey to determine the projected take rate (how many households would subscribe to the City service), estimated at 30.2 percent. During the development of the retail model business plan, staff re-evaluated the pricing model used in the financial feasibility based on industry standards and long-term sustainability at the old pricing structure. Additionally, Comcast announced the deployment of DOCSIS 3.1, technology utilizes Comcast’s existing coaxial cables that can provide 1 Gbps download and 35 Mbps upload speeds, into the Colorado market. Due to the changes listed below, Uptown Services recommended re-surveying the community to confirm the take rate: 1. City of Fort Collins revised the Tier 1 (50 Mbps) internet price from $40 to $50 per month 2. City of Fort Collins revised the Tier 2 (1 Gbps) internet price from $50 to $70 per month 3. Comcast’s DOCSIS 3.1 pricing is $159.95 per month without a contract, and $110 per month with a one-year contract. 4. Comcast is testing a $70 per month promotional offer in Longmont, where NextLight 1 Gbps is offered. Source Scenario Comcast Offering City Offering Municipal Retail Take Rate 2016 Survey n=400 Pre-DOCSIS3.1 1G Not Offered 50M: $40/mo. 1G: $50/mo.* 38.8% 2016 Survey n=100 Post-DOCSIS3.1 1G: $70/mo.** 30.2% July 11, 2017 Page 3 Source Scenario Comcast Offering City Offering Municipal Retail Take Rate 2017 Survey (Cell A) n=200 50M: $50/mo. 1G: $70/mo.* 28.2% 2017 Survey (Cell B) n=200 1G: $110/mo.** 50M: $50/mo. 1G: $70/mo.* 30.4% Based on the survey responses, Uptown Services has estimated that the City’s retail model take rate is at 28.2 percent. Updated Investment Updated financial feasibility (due to the updated take rate and pricing structure) estimates a total investment of $130M - $150M. Network Construction $80M Engineering, Equipment, Facility and Install $29M Bond issuance cost and capitalized interest $13M Total Bond $122M Working Capital $9M Total Investment $131M Contingencies impact the capital requirement and are estimated to be a range due to such items as the estimates for cost overrun, advanced technology solution costs (active Ethernet vs Gigabit Passive Optical Network), product offerings, and potential increases to take rates. Debt Capacity Current Fort Collins Light and Power (L&P) Capital Improvement Plan and long term financial planning indicate adequate debt capacity exists within L&P to support the debt issuance (from revenue backed bonds) for the broadband plan. However, this assumes that L&P needs can be met with rate adjustments and not debt. If the City were to fulfill the debt through general obligation bonds, an estimated $75M - $100M debt could be issued without impacting the City’s AAA bond rating. Strengths and Risks of the Retail Model In the 2016 survey, the City’s brand recognition and strong customer service reputation as a competitive advantage. Other advantages include the strong local support and ability to control construction. However, as with all new businesses, the retail model is not without risks. Risk is influenced by numerous factors including:  Competition risk – incumbents and new entrants  Start-up risk – standing up a new business  Political risk – an example is potential legislative changes at the state or federal level  Governance risk – ability to act in a competitive market (decision making pace, selling vs. order taking, etc.)  Technology risk – market is rapidly changing; the unknown  Financial risk – worst case scenario, if the retail model fails, every L&P rate payer would pay an estimated $16 to $17 per month for the life of the debt Potential Risk Mitigation Option – Retail Model Staff is currently exploring other options to mitigate risk for the retail model. Options include a potential utility fee or sales tax. Currently, the broadband plan has only the consumers interested in receiving internet service paying for services. However, as identified above in financial risk, if the model does not receive the anticipated take rate July 11, 2017 Page 4 (subscribers), the debt will still need to be paid. An alternative could be a utility fee (estimated at $16 to $17 per month) or a .40 percent sales tax. Continued discussions are needed. Utilities Charter Amendment The retail model requires modifications to the City Charter to allow the existing Light and Power (L&P) enterprise to expand into telecommunications. Initial analysis assumes financing the capital cost through revenue bonds issued and backed by the rate-making strength of the L&P enterprise. Although another option for structuring the retail model might be the creation of a free-standing new utility enterprise for telecommunications, including broadband, such a structure would not permit revenue bonds to be secured by L&P electric service revenues and financing may be an impediment to such a structure. A more detailed analysis of funding options would be a part of the next step business planning phase. Modification of the governance process for telecommunications would also be recommended to allow effective operations within a competitive environment, which is not part of the current L&P business model. Option 1 Option 2 Allows the City to add telecommunications directly (municipal retail) or indirectly (3rd Party or public/private partnership) within L&P Enterprise X X Telecommunications within new 5th Utility to support direct services (municipal retail) or indirect services (public/private partnership) X Executive sessions and ability to delegate X X Authorization of L&P revenue bonds up to $150M X X Authorization of general obligation bonds up to $150M X Recommendation Staff is recommending Option 1, which supports municipal retail broadband within the existing L&P enterprise and allows the authorization to leverage L&P revenue bonds to support telecommunication broadband. Next Steps City staff is working to refine work scope with consultants brought on to develop a municipal broadband implementation plan. Additionally, staff is proposing to continue discussions with RFP respondents while moving forward on drafting ballot language for a November 2017 Charter Amendment to propose the addition of telecommunication to the Utilities charter, as well as governance structure. ATTACHMENTS 1. Request for Proposal (RFP)-8550 Gigabit Speed Internet (PDF) 2. Draft Ballot Question and Charter Amendment Options 1 & 2 (PDF) 3. Draft Broadband Retail Business Plan (PDF) 4. Powerpoint presentation (PDF) 1 REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL (RFP) 8550 GIGABIT SPEED INTERNET I. Introduction The City of Fort Collins (the “City”) issues this Request for P r oposal (RFP) for the purpose of exploring the opportunity to form a Public Private Partnership (P3) with an interested party to jointly implement and operate a Citywide fiber-to-the-premises (FTTP) internet service business. This initiative will enhance the broadband connectivity of the City’s residents, businesses, and local education institutions by expanding the range and quality of available broadband and data transport services. The City has initiated this RFP to attract organizations that have expertise, experience and financing capability willing to explore the opportunity to form a P3 to leverage each party’s experience, share in the risks and benefits, and jointly develop a high speed, symmetrical fiber based internet services business within the Growth Management Area (GMA) of Fort Collins. The City seeks input from potential partners to assess possibilities, capabilities, and business model alternatives and the terms and conditions under which a P3 could be assembled to accomplish such a project. The City has a high degree of trust and brand recognition within the community. We are interested in potential partners who bring a strong technical and business operating knowledge of the internet services business to jointly develop a robust infrastructure to provide ubiquitous Gigabit speed internet access within a reasonable timeframe (3 – 5 years). Each market and business model represents a unique combination of opportunities and challenges. The City has identified two business models to explore; a municipal-owned and operated (“retail”) where the City independently builds and operates a fiber network and offers internet services across that network or a P3 where the City works in partnership with a private entity to build and operate a fiber network and offer internet services across that network. The City is not seeking responses from vendors for the retail model at this time. We seek responses that focus on the P3 that share technological capabilities, operational responsibilities, and financial risk between the City and the successful respondent(s). The City will also consider a range of construction, operation, and ownership models associated with public-private partnership, non-exclusive franchise, and other appropriate innovative business models. The City, local education institutions, data oriented businesses, residents and community leaders recognize the increased importance of Gigabit speed internet serves for everyone in the community. Responses to this RFP should state how the respondent’s approach will further the City’s goals to deploy cost effective FTTP Gigabit speed internet throughout the City. Financial Services Purchasing Division 215 N. Mason St. 2nd Floor PO Box 580 Fort Collins, CO 80522 970.221.6775 970.221.6707- fax fcgov.com/purchasing ATTACHMENT 1 2 We encourage respondents to share their expertise, which may be used to shape the direction and formation of the network. Respondents may work together to respond to this RFP. The City is open to creative solutions that will maximize the efficiency of the investment, share in the business risk while providing reliable, cost competitive, and high-quality services with outstanding customer service to meet the needs of its citizens. We welcome the responses of all respondents, including incumbent service providers, as well as competitive providers, nonprofit organizations, public cooperatives, nontraditional providers, and other entities. II. RFP Objectives and Scope The City’s 2016 Strategic Plan outlined objective 3.9 – Encourage the development of reliable, high speed internet services throughout the community. In addition, secondary factors to this objective include: x A Network reaching all residents of the Fort Collins GMA x Timely implementation – 4-5 year build out x Competitive market pricing x Outstanding customer service. The City’s objectives of the RFP process are as follows: 1. Identify entities interested in engaging with the City to make fiber-to-the-premise with symmetrical Gigabit speed internet available within the GMA of Fort Collins. 2. Identify and evaluate innovative and cost-effective ways to partner and leverage the strengths and abilities of both parties to deploy Gigabit speed broadband Citywide. 3. At the City’s option, meet with select respondents for in-depth discussions regarding the entities proposed approach, capability, business model, and terms & conditions and jointly develop details of a potential P3 partnership, non-exclusive franchise, or other business arrangement. Based on the outcome of the RFP and subsequent discussions with select entities, the City will determine next steps based on the City’s best interest. Next steps may include, but are not limited to: - Negotiate with one (1) or more entity(s) a business arrangement to deploy Gigabit speed internet Citywide; or - Initiate a new City utility to launch Gigabit speed internet independently without a private partner. 3 III. Project Background and Preliminary Market Demand Fort Collins is nestled against the foothills of the Rocky Mountains and alongside the banks of the Cache La Poudre River. With an estimated population of 167,000 (approximately 66,500 housing units and 8,000 small and medium business premises), Fort Collins is among the nation’s fastest growing metropolitan areas. The City includes many assets and amenities that provide a competitive advantage including: Colorado State University, abundant natural resources and agricultural land, highly educated and creative workforce, a historic downtown, and many miles of trails, parks and bike paths. Fort Collins has one of the highest rates of patents per capita in the world with a major research institution – Colorado State University – a cluster of federal laboratories and such high-tech companies as Hewlett-Packard, AMD, Intel and Broadcom. The City of Fort Collins is a full-service municipality that operates under the Council/Manager form of government. The City’s mission, vision and values provide the foundation for the City of Fort Collins’ 2015-2016 Strategic Plan’s seven key outcome areas: Community and Neighborhood Livability, Culture and Recreation, Economic Health, Environmental Health, Safe Community, Transportation and High Performing Government. The City’s strong commitment to providing world-class municipal services for an exceptional community underlies every strategic objective. More information about the City’s Strategic Plan can be found at: http://www.fcgov.com/citymanager/pdf/strategic-plan-2015.pdf The City also makes certain GIS data sets available on line that may be helpful to consultant responding to this RFP. This data is available at http://www.fcgov.com/gis/downloadable- data.php. The City of Fort Collins’ Broadband Plan’s overall objective is to bring ultra-high speed internet to the City of Fort Collins while making an informed decision through evaluation of risks and opportunities. Additional benefits being sought include competitive pricing, an affordable Internet tier price for low income residence, universal coverage throughout the Fort Collins growth management area (GMA), underground infrastructure for improved reliability, and providing services within a reasonable timeframe. On November 3, 2015, 83% of Fort Collins voters supported Ballot Issue 2B, which overturned Colorado Senate Bill 05- 152, removing legal barriers for the City’s involvement, direct or indirect, in providing telecommunication services. This vote allows the City and citizens to consider and pursue the best decisions based on the needs and desires of the community. Fort Collins Market Demand Study The City, in collaboration with a third party consultant firm, completed an initial market demand study in March 2016, including three market segment (residential, small business, large business/institutional) studies to identify unique needs (services) by sector of population and/or geographical areas, and estimate demand and take-rate (i.e., potential subscribership rate) assumptions by sector. A summary of the survey findings follows: 4 Residential Market Fort Collins has approximately 66,500 residences. The residential market demand survey asks questions around Internet, voice and video services as part of the overall inputs for the financial feasibility analysis. A high speed Internet service is the primary focus of the broadband study, but the appeal of bundling services at a minimal cost is being investigated. The study confirmed that almost all Fort Collins households use the Internet. Governing.com’s “America’s Most Connected Cities” stated that 91.4% of Fort Collins residents have at least one wired connection. Ninety-nine percent of Fort Collins households surveyed use Internet at home. Of these connected homes, cable modem and digital subscriber lines (DSL) have the vast majority of the market share at 94%. Additionally, the study indicated that Internet usage is prevalent across all income and age groups. Questions around customer service satisfaction levels were also surveyed, as this plays a role in the market demand for alternative broadband services. Respondents were asked to rank customer satisfaction from a scale of 1 - 10, with 10 being “totally satisfied” and 1 being “not at all satisfied,” by service categories: cable television, satellite television, non-pay television (i.e., antenna, basic channels), DSL, cable modem, telephone and electric utility. The average customer satisfaction was high for electric utility at a mean rating of 8.7, while the average mean for DSL was 6.8 and cable modem was 6.6. Sixty-four percent of the respondents rated the City’s Utility brand a 9 or 10 rating. Other internet services had significantly lower customer service satisfaction. Lower prices, increased Internet speed and reliability dominate the wish list of service improvements respondents identified for broadband. Branding and bundling were secondary in importance. Additionally, 81% of respondents acknowledged the importance of having low cost, high-speed Internet. Additional information can be found by entering the following into your internet browser: http://citydocs.fcgov.com/?cmd=convert&vid=72&docid=2697600&dt=&doc_download_date=AP R-26-2016&ITEM_NUMBER= Small to Mid-Size Business Survey The City of Fort Collins has approximately 8,000 small- to mid-size businesses (SMB). A similar survey was deployed to the small-to-mid-size business segment. The survey found that Comcast and CenturyLink are the only two Internet Service Providers (ISPs) with SMB market share in Fort Collins (about 96% of respondents). Two-thirds of SMB respondents in Fort Collins are under contract for their Internet and voice services. Additionally, SMB respondents had similar responses to the residential respondents in regard to customer satisfaction by service and customer needs. One item to note is that SMBs put a larger emphasis on the need for improved reliability, most likely due to reliance on technology and the Internet for business operations. 5 Large Business/Institution Qualitative Survey The objective of the large business/institution qualitative survey is to qualify the current and future capacity needs, unmet needs, and interest and level of support for the development and implementation of a fiber broadband network. Some of those interviewed could be potential customers as major commercial accounts, or they could be an influencer in the community. In total 24 interviews were conducted and the responses aggregated for confidentiality. The survey found that due to multiple incumbent providers competing in the large business/institution segment, fiber is not only deployed, but activated to many of these business locations. Advance data needs are being met with dedicated connections for the business/institutions sole usage. As a result, the City does not see large business/institutional organizations as primary customers of the City’s broadband efforts. Estimated Subscribership (“Take”) Rate The consultants engaged by the City utilized a conservative research technique from the Packaged Goods sector to estimate potential subscribership rate. This technique has been utilized for over 30-years and was developed as firms realized research respondents, for various reasons, overstate purchase intentions during research as compared to the eventual penetration of a product that was commercially launched. Municipal systems, which are not-for-profit enterprises, measure a broadband project “success” by the level of their “take rate” - that is, the percentage of potential subscribers who are offered the service that actually subscribe. The consultants estimated that the take rate for residential Internet service in Fort Collins at 38.8% and 45% for small business (i.e., 38.8% of residents are estimated to subscribe to the fiber network, if offered). With the potential launch of DOCSIS3.1 by Comcast, the residential take rate estimate has been revised to 30.2% as a result of the additional anticipated competition within the market place. Online Broadband Survey Due to interest, staff made the majority of the residential phone survey available online to anyone who wanted to participate. This was not intended to be statistically valid, but rather to allow more residents to engage in the conversation. Over 1,800 responses were received and the results were in line with the statistically valid, residential phone survey. The exception being that online questionnaire saw a higher response from younger demographics. Major themes include improvements in: x Speed (33%) x Price (26%) x Reliability (17%) x Customer Service (10%) x Miscellaneous (14%) IV. RFP SUBMITTAL Qualified entities who may have an interest in engaging with the City to deploy Gigabit speed internet are encourage to respond to this RFP. 6 Respondents are encourage, but not required to provide the following information in response to this RFP. 1. Company name, address, and website. 2. Organization Type (Corporation, Subsidiary, Partnership, Individual, Joint Venture, or Other). 3. The name and contact information (email, phone) of the company representative responsible for providing further information. 4. A brief overview of the company’s capabilities, experience and role in planning, engineering, implementing, or operating Gigabit speed internet particularly in collaboration with a public municipality. 5. Provide evidence your firm is financially strong including recent (last two fiscal years) audited financial statement including balance sheet and income statement. 6. A brief, high-level description of company’s solution/product(s) including but not limited to: a. Address key components of your business model including the elements of the network implementation your firm supports and proposed ownership structure. b. Summarize project cost and cost of service. c. Identify roles and responsibilities of the partnership. d. Identify financing and funding elements including the City’s level of participation. e. Identify key provisions required to enter into a partnership or non-exclusive franchise arrangement including important terms & conditions. f. Highlight the unique features of the solution/product(s), including a general description of the program and any unique benefits provided by your firm. 7. All respondents must complete and execute the Non-Disclosure Agreement (Appendix A). As part of the City’s commitment to Sustainable Purchasing, RFP response submission via email is preferred. RFP response submittals shall be submitted in a single Microsoft Word or PDF file under 20MB and e-mailed to: purchasing@fcgov.com. If electing to submit a hard copy RFP response instead, please mail to the City of Fort Collins' Purchasing Division, 215 North Mason St., 2nd floor, Fort Collins, Colorado 80524. RFP response submittals must be received by 5:00 p.m. (our clock), July 5, 2017 and referenced as RFP 8550. If mailed, the address is P.O. Box 580, Fort Collins, 80522-0580. Please note additional time is required for RFP responses mailed to the PO Box to be received at the Purchasing Office. 7 V. RFP SCHEDULE The preliminary RFP schedule follows: • Issuance of RFP May 30, 2017 • RFP Question Deadline June 23, 2017 • RFP Responses Due July 5, 2017 • Discussion Period Starts July 10, 2017 • Public Engagement On-Going VI. QUESTIONS Questions concerning the RFP should be directed to the Project Manager SeonAh Kendall, 970- 416-2164, skendall@fcgov.com. The deadline for questions is June 23, 2017. Questions regarding the RFP process should be directed to Gerry Paul, Purchasing Director at 970- 221-6779, gspaul@fcgov.com. VII. MISCELLANEOUS A copy of the RFP may be obtained at www.rockymountainbidsystem.com. The NIGP Commodity Code is 915, Communications and Media Related Services which includes 91551 Information Highway Electronic Services (Internet, World Wide Web, etc.) The City is not obligated for any cost incurred whatsoever by firms in the preparation of the Request for Information or potential travel to Fort Collins. 8 Appendix A: Mutual Non-Disclosure Agreement Please provide two signed copies of the following Mutual Non-Disclosure Agreement. MUTUAL NON-DISCLOSURE AGREEMENT THIS MUTUAL NON-DISCLOSURE AGREEMENT (this “Agreement”), effective as of the day of 2016, is between the City of Fort Collins, a Colorado home rule municipal corporation (the “City”), and (“Vendor”). The City and Vendor may hereinafter be referred to individually as a “Party” or collectively as the “Parties.” WHEREAS, Vendor and the City m a y engage in discussions concerning Gigabit speed internet services and a potential business arrangement (the “Purpose”); and WHEREAS, in the course of negotiations or communications, each Partymaydisclosetoand/or receive from the other Party certain information belonging to the disclosing Party or its affiliates (collectively, the “Discloser”) that includes trade secrets, privileged information, or confidential commercial and information (“Confidential Information”); NOW, THEREFORE, in consideration of the foregoing and of the mutual covenants and promises set forth herein and for other good and valuable consideration, the receipt and sufficiency of which are hereby acknowledged, the Parties agree as follows: 1. Records maintained by the City are subject to public disclosure pursuant to the Colorado Open Records Act (“CORA”). Certain confidential business records are exempt. If Vendor provides to the City documents that include trade secrets, privileged information, or confidential commercial or financial information, Vendor shall segregate any documents including such information from other documents provided to the City and shall clearly identify such documents with a stamp, watermark or other clear mark identifying the documents as confidential pursuant to CORA. 2. The Party receiving Confidential Information (the “Recipient”) (i) shall use such Confidential Information only for the Purpose; (ii) shall reproduce such Confidential Information only to the extent necessary for the Purpose; (iii) shall restrict disclosure of such Confidential Information to its, and its affiliates', employees and agents who need to know such Confidential Information to carry out the Purpose and who are not direct competitors of the Discloser (and require such employees and agents to undertake confidentiality and use obligations at least as restrictive as those Recipient assumes herein); (iv) shall not disclose such Confidential Information to any other Party without prior written approval of Discloser; and (v) shall protect such Confidential Information with at least the same degree of care as it normally exercises to protect its own proprietary information of a similar nature, which shall be no less than reasonable care. If Recipient discloses Confidential Information to an employee, affiliate, or other person in accordance with the terms of this Agreement, any subsequent disclosure or use of such Confidential Information by such employee, affiliate, or other person shall be deemed a disclosure or use by Recipient and Recipient shall be responsible for such disclosure or use. The Recipient shall immediately notify the Discloser upon the discovery of any loss or unauthorized disclosure or use of the Confidential Information of the Discloser. 3. The restrictions on use and disclosure of Confidential Information shall not apply unless such Confidential Information, when in tangible, electronic or viewable form is marked confidential or proprietary by Discloser, or when disclosed only orally is both identified as confidential or proprietary at the time of disclosure and summarized in a writing so marked and provided to Recipient within thirty (30) days following the oral disclosure; except that any unmarked material and any verbally disclosed information that Recipient knows or reasonably should know to contain Confidential Information of the 20 Discloser, including but not limited to business or technical information not generally known to the public, such as patents, copyrights, trademarks and trade secrets, as well as all written or oral pricing and contract proposals exchanged between the Parties shall be subject to the use and disclosure restrictions of this Agreement. Within the 30-day period referenced above, all Confidential Information communicated only orally shall be subject to the use and disclosure restrictions of this Agreement. 4. The restrictions on the use or disclosure of Confidential Information shall not apply to any information: a. Which is independently developed by the Recipient as evidenced by documentation in such Party's possession; or b. Which is lawfully received from another source free of restriction and without breach of this Agreement by the Recipient; or c. After it has become generally available to the public without breach of this Agreement by the Recipient; or d. Which at the time of disclosure to the Recipient was known to the Recipient free of restriction as evidenced by documentation in such Party's possession; or e. Which the Discloser agrees in writing is free of such restrictions. 5. All Confidential Information shall remain the exclusive property of the Discloser, and no license under any intellectual property right is either granted or implied by this Agreement or the conveying of Confidential Information to Recipient hereunder. Discloser makes no representations, warranties, assurances, guarantees or inducements of any kind, and, in particular, with respect to the non- infringement of any intellectual property rights, or other rights of third persons or of Discloser. 6. Neither this Agreement nor the disclosure or receipt of Confidential Information hereunder shall constitute or imply any promise or intention by either Party to enter into any transaction or business relationship, nor is it an inducement for either Party or its affiliated companies to spend funds or resources or purchase or provide products or services, nor is it any commitment by either Party or its affiliated companies with respect to the present or future marketing of any product or service. No such agreement will be binding unless and until stated in a separate writing signed by authorized representatives of both Parties. 7. Each Party agrees not to announce or disclose to any other person (other than persons described in Section 1(iii), above) the Confidential Information or the nature of any discussions concerning the Purpose without first securing the prior written approval of the other Party. All Confidential Information furnished hereunder shall be returned or destroyed upon written request or upon Recipient’s determination that it no longer has a need for such Confidential Information, except that Recipient’s legal counsel may retain one copy in counsel’s files solely to provide a record of such Confidential Information for archival purposes. 8. The restrictions on use and disclosure of Confidential Information disclosed hereunder shall survive for a period of three (3) years from the date of last disclosure of any such Confidential Information (except in the case of software, for an indefinite period). Either Party may terminate this Agreement upon thirty (30) days advance written notice to the other. 9. All notices or communications required or permitted as a part of this Agreement shall be in writing (unless another verifiable medium is expressly authorized) and shall be deemed delivered when: A. actuallyreceived, B. upon receipt by sender of a certified mail, return receipt signed by an employee or agent of the Party, C. upon receipt by sender of proof of email receipt, or D. if not actually received, ten (10) days after deposit with the United States Postal Service authorized mail center with proper postage (certified mail, return receipt requested) affixed and addressed to the respective other party at the address set forth in this Agreement or such other address as the Party may have designated by notice or Agreement amendment to the other Party. 21 The consequences of failure to receive a notice due to improper notification by the intended Recipient of a new address will be borne by the intended Recipient. The addresses of the Parties to this Agreement are as follows: <Vendor Name> City of Fort Collins <Vendor Address Line 1> 215 N. Mason <Vendor Address Line 2 PO Box 580 <Vendor Address Line 3> Fort Collins, CO 80521 Attention: Project Manager Attention: Purchasing Director 10. This Agreement shall not be construed to limit either Party's right to independently develop or acquire products or services without use of the other Party's Confidential Information. 11. The restrictions on disclosure of Confidential Information under this Agreement shall not preclude Recipient, on the advice of counsel, from complying with applicable law, regulation, other governmental requirement or other demand under lawful process, including a discovery request in a civil litigation, if Recipient first gives Discloser notice of the required disclosure and cooperates with Discloser, at Discloser’s expense, in seeking reasonable protective arrangements. In no event shall Recipient be required to take any action which, on the advice of Recipient’s counsel, could result in the imposition of any sanctions or other penalties by a court or government body. 12. Neither Party has any obligation to disclose Confidential Information to the other. Either Party may, at any time: (i) cease giving Confidential Information to the other Party without any liability, or (ii) request in writing return of Confidential Information previously disclosed. 13. Recipient acknowledges that Confidential Information provided under this Agreement maybe subject to U.S. export laws or regulations. Recipient shall not use, distribute, transfer or transmit Confidential Information (even if incorporated into products, software or other information) except in compliance with such laws and regulations. If requested, Recipient shall sign written assurances and other export-related documents as may be required to comply with such laws or regulations. 14. Each Party agrees that all of its obligations undertaken herein as Recipient shall survive and continue after any termination of this Agreement, subject to Section 8 above. 15. No amendment or modification of this Agreement shall be valid or binding on the Parties unless made in writing and signed by duly authorized representatives of each Party. 16. Subject to the limitations set forth in this Agreement, this Agreement will inure to the benefit of and be binding upon the Parties. This Agreement may not be assigned by one Party without the other Party's prior written consent. 17. If any provision of this Agreement shall be held by a court of competent jurisdiction to be illegal, invalid or unenforceable, the remaining provisions shall remain in full force and effect to the greatest extent permitted by law. 18. No forbearance, failure or delay in exercising any right, power or privilege is waiver thereof, nor does any single or partial exercise thereof preclude any other or future exercise thereof, or the exercise of any other right, power or privilege. This Agreement is binding upon and inures to the benefit of the Parties and their heirs, executors, legal and personal representatives, successors and assigns, as the case may be. 19. This Agreement shall be governed by the laws of the State of Colorado, U.S.A., without regard to its conflicts of law principles. Each Party acknowledges and agrees that a breach by it or one of its affiliates, employees or representatives of any of the covenants set forth in this Agreement will cause irreparable injury to the other Party and its business for which damages, even if available, will not constitute an adequate remedy. Accordingly, each Party, for itself and its affiliates, employees and representatives, agrees that the other Party, in addition to any other remedy available at law or in equity, shall be entitled to the issuance of injunctive relief (including, without limitation, specific performance) by a court of competent jurisdiction in order to enforce the covenants and agreements contained herein. 20. Any judicial proceeding brought by or against any of the Parties on any dispute arising out of this Agreement or any matter related hereto shall be brought exclusively in the state district court sitting in Larimer County, Colorado, and by execution and delivery of this Agreement, each of the Parties accepts for itself the exclusive jurisdiction and venue of the aforesaid court as trial courts. Each Party expressly waives any objection (including, without limitation, objections based on forum non conveniens)whichany Party may have now or hereafter to the laying of venue or to the jurisdiction of any such suit, action, or proceeding, and irrevocably submits generally and unconditionally to the jurisdiction of any such court in any such suit, action, or proceeding. Each Party agrees that its attorneys shall accept service of process. 21. This Agreement constitutes the entire understanding between the Parties as to the treatment of Confidential Information disclosed for the Purpose and merges all prior discussion between them relating thereto. Each Party has read this Agreement, understands it and agrees to be bound by its terms and conditions. This Agreement may be executed in counterparts, each of which shall be deemed an original, but all of which taken together shall constitute one single agreement between the Parties. Signatures exchanged by facsimile or other electronic means are effective for all purposes hereunder to the same extent as original signatures. INWITNESSWHEREOF,the Parties have executed this Agreement as of the date first set forth above. City of Fort Collins, Colorado By: By: (Typed or printed name) (Typed or printed name) (Title) (Title) 22 CITY-INITIATED PROPOSED CHARTER AMENDMENT NO. 1 Shall Article XII of the Charter of the City of Fort Collins, pertaining to municipal public utilities, be amended to add a new section authorizing City Council, by ordinance and without a vote of the electors, to authorize the City’s electric utility to acquire, construct, provide, fund and contract for telecommunication facilities and services within and outside the City’s territorial limits, whether directly or in whole or part through RQH RU PRUH third-party providerV, to include, without limitation, the transmission of Internet data, voice and video, and to authorize the Council, in exercising this authority, to: (1) issue revenue and refunding securities and other debt obligations as authorized in the Charter, but in a cumulative total principal amount not to exceed $150,000,0000; (2) set the rates, fees and charges for these facilities and services subject to the same limitations in the Charter for setting the rates, fees and charges for other City utilities; (3) go into executive session to consider matters pertaining to issues of competition in providing these facilities and services to include, without limitation, matters subject to negotiation, strategic planning, pricing, sales and marketing, development phasing and any other matter allowed under Colorado law; (4) establish a Council-appointed board or commission and delegate to it by ordinance, in whole or part, the Council’s governing authority and powers granted under this new Charter section, but not the power to issue securities; and (5) delegate to the City Manager by ordinance, in whole or part, its authority to set the rates, fees and charges for telecommunication facilities and services? ______Yes/For ______No/Against FOR ILLUSTRATION AND DISCUSSION PURPOSES Charter Article XII, Municipal Public Utilities Section 7. Electric utility and telecommunication facilities and services. (a) In addition to all the powers granted by this Charter to the Council to acquire, condemn, establish, construct, own, lease, operate and maintain an electric utility to provide light, power and other electrical facilities and services, the Council may, by ordinance and without a vote of the electors, authorize the electric utility to acquire, construct, provide, fund and contract for telecommunication facilities and services within and outside the City’s territorial limits, whether directly or in whole or part through RQH RU PRUH third-party providerV, to include, without limitation, telecommunication facilities and services providing for the transmission of Internet data, voice and video. (b) The Council, acting as itself or the board of the electric utility enterprise, shall have the power to issue revenue and refunding securities and other debt obligations as authorized in Sections 19.3 and 19.4 of Article V of this Charter to fund the provision of the telecommunication facilities and services authorized in this Section. The cumulative total principal amount of any such securities and other debt obligations issued shall not exceed one hundred and fifty million dollars ($150,000,000), except that any refunding of such securities or other debt obligations shall not be included in that cumulative total. The City’s payment of and performance of covenants under the securities and other debt obligations issued under this subsection (b) and any other contract obligations of the City relating to the provision of telecommunication facilities and services under this Section, shall not be subject to annual appropriation so long as annual appropriation is not required under Article X, Section 20 of the Colorado Constitution. (c) The Council shall set by ordinance the rates, fees and charges for furnishing the telecommunication facilities and services authorized in this Section subject to the same limitations in Section 6 of Article XII of this Charter for setting the rates, fees and charges for other City utilities, except to the extent this authority is delegated by Council pursuant to subsection (e) below. In setting such rates, fees and charges, the Council may also include amounts payable to the City’s general fund for a franchise fee, a reasonable rate of return on any contributions from the general fund to acquire or construct telecommunication facilities, and the repayment of any loans from the general fund to the electric utility used to support the provision of telecommunication facilities and services under this Section, to include the payment of a reasonable rate of interest on any such loans. (d) In addition to the authority to go into executive session as provided in Section 11 of Article II of this Charter, the Council, and any board or commission established under subsection (e) below, may go into executive session to consider matters pertaining to issues of competition in providing the telecommunication facilities and services authorized in this Section, which shall include, without limitation, matters subject to negotiation, strategic planning, pricing, sales and marketing, development phasing and any other matter allowed under Colorado law. (e) As authorized in Section 1 of Article IV of this Charter, the Council may, by ordinance, establish a Council-appointed board or commission and delegate to it, in whole or part, the FOR ILLUSTRATION AND DISCUSSION PURPOSES Council’s governing authority and powers granted under this Section concerning the furnishing of telecommunication facilities and services by the City’s electric utility, but not the power to issue securities as provided in subsection (b) above which shall only be exercised by the Council acting as itself or the board of the electric utility enterprise. The Council may also delegate by ordinance to the City Manager, in whole or part, its authority in subsection (c) above to set the rates, fees and charges for furnishing telecommunication facilities and services. Any Council ordinance delegating this authority shall set forth the process to be used by the delegate for the setting of these rates, fees and charges. In addition, the amount of the rates, fees and charges so set by the delegate shall be determined under the same criteria the Council is authorized and required to follow in subsection (c) above. (f) For purposes of this Section, telecommunication facilities and services shall mean those facilities used and services provided for the transmission, between or among points specified by the user, of information of the user's choosing, without change in the form or content of the information as sent and received. FOR ILLUSTRATION AND DISCUSSION PURPOSES Charter Article XII, Municipal Public Utilities Section 7. Telecommunication facilities and services. (a) In addition to all the powers granted by this Charter to the Council to acquire, condemn, establish, construct, own, lease, operate and maintain an electric utility to provide light, power and other electrical facilities and services, the Council may, by ordinance and without a vote of the electors, authorize the electric utility to acquire, construct, provide, fund and contract for telecommunication facilities and services within and outside the City’s territorial limits, whether directly or in whole or part through RQH RU PRUH third-party providerV, to include, without limitation, telecommunication facilities and services providing for the transmission of Internet data, voice and video. Alternatively, the Council may create by ordinance and without a vote of the electors a telecommunications utility to exercise these same powers to furnish telecommunication facilities and services within and outside the City’s territorial limits. If the Council creates a telecommunications utility, it may also establish that utility as an enterprise of the City in the same manner, with the same powers and subject to the same requirements and limitations established under Section 19.3(b) of Article V of this Charter for the City’s other enterprises. The Council may also exercise with respect to the telecommunications utility the same general authority and powers granted to Council in this Charter with respect to the City’s other utilities. (b) The Council, acting asitself,the board of the electric utility enterprise or as the board of the telecommunications utility enterprise, shall have the power to issue revenue and refunding securities and other debt obligations as authorized in Sections 19.3 and 19.4 of Article V of this Charter to fund the provision of the telecommunication facilities and services authorized in this Section. The Council shall also have the power to issue general obligation securities as authorized in Section 19.2 of Article V of this Charter to fund the provision of the telecommunication facilities and services authorized in this Section. The cumulative total principal amount of any such securities and other debt obligations issued shall not exceed one hundred and fifty million dollars ($150,000,000), except that any refunding of such securities or other debt obligations shall not be included in that cumulative total. The City’s payment of and performance of covenants under the securities and other debt obligations issued under this subsection (b) and any other contract obligations of the City relating to the provision of telecommunication facilities and services under this Section, shall not be subject to annual appropriation so long as annual appropriation is not required under Article X, Section 20 of the Colorado Constitution. (c) The Council shall set by ordinance the rates, fees and charges for furnishing the telecommunication facilities and services authorized in this Section subject to the same limitations in Section 6 of Article XII of this Charter for setting the rates, fees and charges for other City utilities, except to the extent this authority is delegated by Council pursuant to subsection (e) below. In setting such rates, fees and charges, the Council may also include amounts payable to the City’s general fund for a franchise fee, a reasonable rate of return on any contributions from the general fund to acquire or construct telecommunication facilities, and the repayment of any loans from the general fund to the electric utility used to support the provision of telecommunication facilities and services under this Section, to include the payment of a reasonable rate of interest on any such loans.. FOR ILLUSTRATION AND DISCUSSION PURPOSES (d) In addition to the authority to go into executive session as provided in Section 11 of Article II of this Charter, the Council, and any board or commission established under subsection (e) below, may go into executive session to consider matters pertaining to issues of competition in providing the telecommunication facilities and services authorized in this Section, which shall include, without limitation, matters subject to negotiation, strategic planning, pricing, sales and marketing, development phasing and any other matter allowed under Colorado law. (e) As authorized in Section 1 of Article IV of this Charter, the Council may, by ordinance, establish a Council-appointed board or commission and delegate to it, in whole or part, the Council’s governing authority and powers granted under this Section concerning the furnishing of telecommunication facilities and services by the City’s electric utility or telecommunications utility, but not the power to issue securities as provided in subsection (b) above which shall only be exercised by the Council acting as itself or as the board of the electric utility enterprise or as the board of the telecommunications utility enterprise. The Council may also delegate by ordinance to the City Manager, in whole or part, its authority in subsection (c) above to set the rates, fees and charges for furnishing telecommunication facilities and services. Any Council ordinance delegating this authority shall set forth the process to be used by the delegate for the setting of these rates, fees and charges. In addition, the amount of the rates, fees and charges so set by the delegate shall be determined under the same criteria the Council is authorized and required to follow in subsection (c) above. (f) For purposes of this Section, telecommunication facilities and services shall mean those facilities used and services provided for the transmission, between or among points specified by the user, of information of the user's choosing, without change in the form or content of the information as sent and received. FOR ILLUSTRATION AND DISCUSSION PURPOSES 1 ATTACHMENT 3 2 Contents I. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................ 5 II. Mission ................................................................................................................................................. 6 Status Quo ................................................................................................................................................. 6 Why Fiber-to-the-Premise (“FTTP”)? Why Now? ................................................................................... 6 City of Fort Collins Retail Broadband Solution ........................................................................................ 7 History of Investigation ............................................................................................................................ 8 Platte River Power Authority .................................................................................................................. 12 III. Broadband Market Profile ........................................................................................................... 14 Residential............................................................................................................................................... 14 Commercial ............................................................................................................................................. 14 City of Fort Collins ................................................................................................................................. 15 IV. Fort Collins Customer Profile ...................................................................................................... 17 Market Segmentation .............................................................................................................................. 17 Residential Market .................................................................................................................................. 18 Online Residential Broadband Survey .................................................................................................... 20 Top Attributes Relative to Importance Comparable Results .................................................................. 20 Low Income ............................................................................................................................................ 20 Small- to Mid-Size Business ................................................................................................................... 21 Large Business / Institution .................................................................................................................... 24 Subscribership (“Take Rate”) ................................................................................................................. 25 V. Competitive Environment ................................................................................................................ 28 Incumbents .............................................................................................................................................. 28 Competitive Response ............................................................................................................................ 30 Municipal Retail Implications ................................................................................................................. 31 VI. Operating Plan .............................................................................................................................. 32 Retail Model Summary ........................................................................................................................... 32 Critical Operational Success Factors ...................................................................................................... 32 Capital Requirement ............................................................................................................................... 33 Passing Cost ............................................................................................................................................ 33 Drop Cost ................................................................................................................................................ 35 Pricing Assumptions ............................................................................................................................... 36 3 Marketing Plan ........................................................................................................................................ 38 Objectives – Marketing Plan ................................................................................................................... 38 Budget ..................................................................................................................................................... 39 Promotion & Advertising ........................................................................................................................ 39 Customer Service Plan ............................................................................................................................ 39 Customer Service Strategy ...................................................................................................................... 39 Customer Service Planning ..................................................................................................................... 40 Customer Service Staff ........................................................................................................................... 40 Personnel Requirements .......................................................................................................................... 41 Facilities .................................................................................................................................................. 42 Milestone Timeline ................................................................................................................................. 43 VII. Network Architecture ................................................................................................................... 44 Network Technologies Overview ........................................................................................................... 44 Fiber Technologies .................................................................................................................................. 46 Copper Technologies .............................................................................................................................. 47 Wireless Technologies ............................................................................................................................ 48 Implications............................................................................................................................................. 49 City of Fort Collins Assets ...................................................................................................................... 50 GPON in Model ...................................................................................................................................... 51 GPON and Active Ethernet Summary .................................................................................................... 52 GPON – Low Cost and Flexible ............................................................................................................. 52 Active Ethernet – Futureproof ................................................................................................................ 52 VIII. Financial Model ............................................................................................................................. 53 Base Case Assumptions .......................................................................................................................... 53 Year 0 – 5 Construction Phase ................................................................................................................ 54 Funding ................................................................................................................................................... 54 Year 1: ..................................................................................................................................................... 55 Year 2 - 5: ............................................................................................................................................... 56 Revenue .................................................................................................................................................. 56 Year 5+ Operations Phase ....................................................................................................................... 57 Net Cash .................................................................................................................................................. 58 Financial Statements – Profit and Loss ................................................................................................... 59 4 Sensitivity ............................................................................................................................................... 62 Scenarios ................................................................................................................................................. 63 Mitigation and Risk ................................................................................................................................. 63 IX. Opportunities and Threats ........................................................................................................... 65 Opportunities: ......................................................................................................................................... 65 Threats: ................................................................................................................................................... 65 X. Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 67 XI. Appendix ........................................................................................................................................ 68 XI.A. Peer Cities ..................................................................................................................................... 68 5 I. Executive Summary This document offers a high-level business plan for initiating and operating the City of Fort Collins’ Retail fiber-to-the-premise (FTTP) broadband network. After extensive research and due diligence, municipal deployment of a FTTP network is a viable alternative to produce meaningful sustainable benefits for the City of Fort Collins. Fiber’s a proven technology with a stable history, capable of meeting current performance standards. It is the most promising alternative to meet future needs. The business plan (Plan) addresses the broadband status quo in the City of Fort Collins, market profile and opportunity, operating plan, proposed network architecture and financial requirements of the retail model. In addition, the competitive environment will be investigated, possible operating scenarios examined, and frequently asked questions answered. The Plan was written with data provided by Uptown Services in the 2016 Financial Feasibility Analysis and with data available to staff at the date of publication and may not reflect current conditions. The Plan will be updated as new information becomes available. 6 II. Mission Status Quo The City of Fort Collins began exploring the benefits and need for a high speed fiber network in 2010 when Google announced the launch of the “Think big with a gig: Our experimental fiber network” competition. The City was among the estimated 1,100 communities that applied. After Google announced Kansas City as their first Google Fiber community, the City, along with Colorado State University (CSU) joined an effort called GigU. Thirteen communities and their land-grant universities partnered to explore the benefits to the University and City of Fort Collins by creating a future-proof “Connected City.” Why Fiber-to-the-Premise (“FTTP”)? Why Now? The term “future proofing” is used to describe a city that is connected to the internet for commerce and quality of life services. Fort Collins is home to CSU and an outstanding public school system that uses the internet for world-class research and business. Fort Collins has a tech-savvy culture and a strong economic base with diverse employment opportunities that could benefit from enhanced broadband services. High speed broadband is the nervous system of innovation, entrepreneurship, education and quality of life. The ability to connect quickly and reliably (both upload and download) has proven to be a differentiator. For the next 30-50 years, fiber is the anticipated required infrastructure. With upgrades to the electronics, a fiber network can handle significantly greater speeds in the future. In contrast, existing coax and copper cable systems are at the end of their technological life and will not support speeds that will be needed throughout the next 20 years. Conversation with the two major incumbents providing internet service in the community indicated both believed their existing speeds were adequate to meet existing consumer needs and their business plan was to upgrade the system speed as the consumer needed it. Neither would commit to when a full fiber network system to all premises may be implemented. Questions frequently arise as to why the City would enter a market that traditionally has been dominated by private companies. According to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) the real underlying cause of slow, expensive internet in the U.S. is the lack of competition among providers. New broadband entrants into the market have a substantial impact on price reductions, increased customer service and accelerated infrastructure upgrades. Incumbents typically try to maximize use of the existing infrastructure, such as copper, wireless or a hybrid approach. Non-fiber infrastructure can create dependability concerns due to the life and reliability of copper. Fiber, which the City’s exploring in its broadband plan, is not susceptible to weather or electromagnetic interferences and can have a lifespan of 25–40 years or beyond. Currently, wireless technology is a complement to wired connections, not a substitute. 7 The City realized a fiber-connected city created advantages over a disconnected city. With the growing importance of high speed internet within the economy and citizen’s daily lives, a plan for securing gigabit-speed internet across the City’s growth management area (GMA) is crucial. It was also apparent that the existing networks within the City’s GMA would require significant technology upgrades before they were able to offer reliable gigabit speeds to the general public at a reasonable price. It would seem a municipal network was the obvious option. However, Senate Bill 05-152 (SB152) prohibited the City from being engaged in providing internet services; that is until 2015. In November 2015, 83 percent of Fort Collins voters chose to overturn SB152, thus removing the legal barriers to the City of Fort Collins from providing high speed internet. Staff created this high-level business plan to document the assumptions, data, estimates, challenges and details associated with creating a municipal retail fiber-to-the-premise (FTTP) network that would offer broadband service to the Fort Collins GMA. City of Fort Collins Retail Broadband Solution During the Budgeting for Outcomes (BFO) community outreach in 2014, the community prioritized and identified a need to address the lack of reliable, universal and affordable broadband services. The City of Fort Collins addressed the broadband situation by identifying the following strategic objective in the 2015/2016 Strategic Plan. “Strategic Objective 3.9 – Encourage the development of reliable high speed internet services throughout the community.” The overall objective is to bring reliable, high speed internet to the city of Fort Collins, while making an informed decision through evaluation of risk and opportunities. The FCC formally defines broadband as internet download speed of 25 megabits per second (Mbps) and upload of 3Mbps or faster. However, a popular benchmark of high-speed broadband is commonly known as gigabit speed (Gbps), and is seen in many cities across the country including Longmont, CO. One possible option for accomplishing Strategic Objective 3.9 is the City of Fort Collins Municipal Retail FTTP Broadband Network in which the City will design, build, own, operate and market internet services to all premises within the City’s GMA. Initial build-out of the network would be within existing city limits and service would be added to the GMA as those areas were annexed into the City. In summary, the City would: • Design a fiber grid network to ensure infrastructure is available on a community-wide basis • Borrow between $130M and $150M to fund the network construction and systems implementation to all businesses and residences 8 • Design a fiber grid system to ensure infrastructure is available on a community wide basis • Manage construction of the fiber network build, provide quality assurance and comprehensive testing to ensure a high quality network • Design and install fiber drops to each premise when a customer orders internet service from the City • Provide internet services to all premises requesting service • Lease Dark Fiber as requested by businesses • Develop sales and marketing programs to effectively compete in this competitive market • Develop appropriate back-office systems required to support customer service and maintain and monitor the network • Target Residential Pricing of $50/month for 50Mbps service, and $70/month for 1Gbps while also offering an “Affordable Internet” tier program Fort Collins plans symmetrical (same speed for both downloads and uploads) speed offerings of both 50Mbps and 1Gbps residential offerings. Symmetrical service would also be an option for commercial subscribers. Additional benefits sought by the City include: • Competitive pricing • Universal coverage across the GMA • Underground service for improved reliability • Timely implementation to providing services within a reasonable timeframe History of Investigation The City held discussions with each of the Fort Collins major incumbents. Each described their strategic commitments and timing to upgrade their existing systems to a high speed fiber-based system. While the incumbents have plans to upgrade their systems over time, no specifics or promises were provided, such as: 1) What percentage of customers will have FTTP connectivity by year-end 2017/2018? 2) When they will have a network that is fully fiber-based across the entire growth management area? 3) How they will help the City ensure that all neighborhoods benefit from connectivity? Staff explored a number of solutions in addition to the retail model to achieve the City’s Strategic Objective 3.9 and developed the following four alternatives: 9 A. Do Nothing – Rely on the current incumbents to upgrade their systems and provide improved speed and reliability per their capital improvement plans B. 3rd Party or Partnership – Develop a partnership with an existing internet service provider that leverages their expertise and experience combined with the City’s brand and reputation to develop and deliver high speed internet within the community C. Wholesale Model – where the City builds out a fiber network and attracts other service providers to market and operate the system D. Retail Model – where the City enters the business of building out, operating and providing internet and other services across a City-owned fiber infrastructure Extensive community engagement was conducted in 2016 to determine citizen preference among the four options. The graphs below summarize the citizen “in-person” results, Local Legislative Affairs Committee preference and input from the online survey. 10 NOTE: At the time of the outreach, the third-party alternative was called “franchise.” Colorado statute does not allow telecommunication franchises and therefore is now referred to as third-party. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Absolutely Not Supportive Not Supportive Cautiously Supportive Somewhat Supportive Very, Very Supportive Face-to-Face Results (without Local Legislative Affairs Committee) Do Nothing Franchise Wholesale Retail 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Absolutely Not Supportive Not Supportive Cautiously Supportive Somewhat Supportive Very, Very Supportive Local Legislative Affairs Committee Results Do Nothing Franchise Wholesale Retail 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Absolutely Not Supportive Not Supportive Cautiously Supportive Somewhat Supportive Very, Very Supportive Online Results Do Nothing Franchise Wholesale Retail 11 As part of the investigation, staff has had phone discussions and visited with several communities that have launched a broadband effort. In addition, a consultant, Magellan, was engaged in late 2015 to provide case study analysis of the various business models communities have used. Attachment 1 provides the detail of Magellan’s analysis. The City of Fort Collins also evaluated how 25 peer communities are working to stay connected. Twenty out of 25 peer cities have state legislation that restricts municipalities’ ability to operate in the telecommunications industry. Appendix XI.A summarizes how Fort Collins peer cities are approaching broadband. In summary, the “Do Nothing” alternative did not achieve Strategic Objective 3.9. The Wholesale model requires the City to make a significant investment in building out the fiber network (approximately $90M) and the success of that network and the City’s ability to repay the debt for the build-out is dependent on the success of these external service providers. The risks identified with the Wholesale model are similar to what has occurred in Utah and Tacoma Washington. Staff determined neither of these alternatives met the objectives of the project. From 2016 through early 2017, staff explored both the 3rd Party/Partnership model and the Retail model. This business plan is specific to the exploration of a City owned and operated FTTP internet service business. The City hired Uptown Services, consultants who have evaluated broadband service offerings in more than 40 different communities, to support a feasibility evaluation of both retail and wholesale models. Working with staff, Uptown conducted market surveys, evaluated and estimated construction costs, estimated market take rates (the market share the City would have after five years) and developed a financial model for a full build-out of a fiber network in Fort Collins. The resulting business plan relies heavily on the work of Uptown Services. 12 Platte River Power Authority Platte River Power Authority (PRPA) maintains the local fiber loops for the Cities of Fort Collins, Loveland and the Town of Estes Park. The backbone fiber ring began in 1998 as an electric substation communication upgrade. It replaced unreliable radio and telephone line connectivity for an important supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) network. A quality SCADA system provides utilities (both power and water) with valuable knowledge and capabilities that are key to running a reliable and safe business. PRPA and the City of Fort Collins partnered to connect all of the substations in the community with a 144-fiber backbone cable (12 buffer tubes). PRPA, needing only one buffer tube (12 fibers), offered buffer tubes to City Traffic, Utilities and IT departments. The remaining fibers were presented as leasable to public and private local institutions. PRPA’s role continues to include:  Managing all fiber splices on the substation backbone  Providing location services for the substation backbone  Actively leasing dark fiber not used by the host municipality to public and private lessees (potential additional revenue for the new system)  Provide solution design services to lessees  Performing ongoing maintenance, troubleshooting, and customer support for lessees  Maintaining fiber documentation and fiber management database  Implementing capital improvement  Administering billing and collections of fiber lease revenue and returning the collected revenue to the municipalities 13 The current agreement between the City of Fort Collins and PRPA expires on Dec. 15, 2018. Currently, the City utilizes 36 of the 144 fiber strands for existing City use (fire, police, IT, Utility, Traffic, etc.). Of the 144 strands, only 25 are not being utilized. It is also estimated that the City receives $270k in revenue annually from PRPA due to dark fiber leasing agreements. Given the limited number of unused strands and the expected future need to utilize the existing PRPA fiber infrastructure to support municipal operations, very limited excess capacity has been identified that could be used for the retail model. As a result, the infrastructure needed to support the retail model will require new fiber installation, and will not be able to leverage the existing PRPA fiber ring. 14 III. Broadband Market Profile Residential Currently, the majority of computers and applications do not require gig speed to operate effectively. Studies indicate speeds of 75Mbps will largely handle the average consumers’ requirement. However, the City’s goal is to “future-proof” with fiber infrastructure for three reasons: 1) As more and more devices are used within a single household, the simultaneous use will begin to exceed the current speed offerings. 2) As speed becomes more readily available, new applications will be developed that require a higher speed. 3) With the growing use of cloud services, a more symmetrical service will be required. Residential broadband subscribers are utilizing more online applications that require more bandwidth, quality and reliability out of internet connections. The impact of simultaneous applications and devices accessing a single home broadband connection creates a situation where most residential broadband connections are unable to handle the amount of bandwidth needed to support all applications simultaneously. In addition, the myriad of cloud services is driving the need for more symmetrical broadband services, as real-time applications require additional bandwidth, in terms of both download and upload speed. Many times, these applications synchronize in real time, meaning that they are always consuming bandwidth at a constant rate rather than only when the user is actively engaged through their computers, tablets and smartphones. As more of these applications are deployed, broadband connections will need to accommodate the increased bandwidth load. The proliferation of devices, commonly referred to as the Internet of Things (IOT), is also driving the need for more bandwidth. As more devices in homes, businesses and public places all access existing broadband connections, these demands also extend to many devices inside the home that are now connecting to the internet using residential broadband connections. Many video/audio systems, thermostats, irrigation and security systems are now connected to the internet, consuming more home broadband bandwidth. The increase in the number of devices using internet-based applications continues to drive additional broadband demand in the home. Commercial Accessible, affordable and reliable broadband services are a key productivity and efficiency driver for businesses of varying sizes. In many cases, bandwidth consumption outpaces the broadband speeds local businesses are able to purchase. Upgrading is often times not an option due to the prices businesses are able to afford and service availability, as well as other IT-related factors. When local broadband services cannot “keep up” with business needs, businesses lose productivity and efficiency, which affects their bottom line and makes them less competitive with regions that have more affordable broadband services. 15 Taken in aggregate, this lack of online access will eventually result in a less competitive business market, from an economic perspective, as growth from the digital economy will be realized by other communities. Solid economic studies have not been completed that support this presumption; however, more and more businesses acknowledge that reliable, high speed internet is a requirement as they look at relocation opportunities. Communities also risk retention issues as businesses that are not able to gain efficiencies with their existing broadband services will, in many cases, move operations to communities that have more availability of these services. Broadband is a fundamental utility asset that businesses require, as they rely on broadband to maintain connectedness to the electronic world. The majority of these types of businesses rely on online services to maintain their daily operations. Through promotion of a community’s leading-edge broadband services, current businesses can be assured that they can remain in the region and have robust access to the rest of the digital world. Accessible and affordable high speed broadband has also gone beyond being a differentiator to being a key part of the “minimum ante” for attracting and retaining desirable businesses and facilities. Cities that realize this take steps to ensure their environments are favorable and the “cost of doing business” is not increased due to expensive broadband services. City of Fort Collins Fort Collins is nestled against the foothills of the Rocky Mountains and alongside the banks of the Cache La Poudre River. With an estimated population of 167,500, Fort Collins is among the nation’s fastest growing metropolitan areas. The City includes many assets and amenities that provide a competitive advantage including: CSU, abundant natural resources and agricultural land, a highly educated and creative workforce, a historic downtown, and many miles of trails, parks and bike paths. Fort Collins is known as an innovative community and has one of the highest rates of patents per capita in the world with a major research institution – CSU – a cluster of federal laboratories and such high-tech companies as Hewlett-Packard, AMD, Intel and Broadcom. DEMOGRAPHIC FACTS FORT COLLINS COLORADO UNITED STATES Est. Population, 2017 167,500 5,540,500 323,127,513* Persons under 5 years old* 5.7% 6.2% 6.2% Persons under 18 years old* 19.9% 23% 22.9% Persons 65 years and over* 8.8% 13% 14.9% Female persons* 50.1% 49.7% 50.8% Employmentꜛ 74,498 2,181,455 121,079,879 Median Household Income* $55,647 $60,629 $53,889 Median Age* 29.3 34.3 37.7 Approx. % of Pop. w/ completion of 4+ years of college education* 52.5% 38.1% 29.8% White person* 89% 87.5% 77.1% Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin 10.1% 21.3% 17.6% *Data provided by ACS 2011-2015 ꜛSource: Colorado State Demography Office 16 Factors that influence local internet adoption include cost, availability and a city’s demographics, including income levels. Brookings Institute noted in 2015 that 92.1percent of households earning $75,000 or more annually had a broadband subscription. Using this benchmark to evaluate the Fort Collins market indicates that roughly 36.3 percent of Fort Collins residents earn $75,000 or more per year. Surveys and market studies performed by Uptown Services LLC, consultants engaged by the City of Fort Collins, found the following issues prevalent:  The two incumbents have the vast majority of market share for both Internet and voice services in Fort Collins.  Satisfaction for Internet and voice service benchmarks low; video is average.  Top residential market needs are: lower prices, increased Internet speed, and improved reliability.  Top small- to medium-size business market needs are: lower prices and carrier-grade reliability.  Residential market purchase intent is very high and exceeds Longmont survey metrics.  Small- to medium-size business market needs are being met, but price levels are high up to 200Mbps.  Strong provider preference for the City within the residential market.  Small- to medium-size business market is open to considering the City FTTP network as a provider option.  The project appeal and purchase intent is strongest among younger households. 17 IV. Fort Collins Customer Profile Market Segmentation Uptown Services LLC were engaged to investigate the Fort Collins market and produce a market demand study based on survey results and expertise. Uptown segments and methodologies: 18 Residential Market According to Governing.com’s “America’s Most Connected Cities,” 91.4% of Fort Collins residents have at least one wired connection. Top 20 cities with the Highest Internet Subscribership Rates per Governing.com 2013: A statistically valid phone residential market demand survey conducted by Uptown Services in March 2016 asked questions around the internet, voice and video services as part of the overall inputs for the financial feasibility analysis. The study focused on high speed internet service, but the appeal of bundling services at a minimal cost was also investigated. The study confirmed that almost all Fort Collins households use the internet. Of Fort Collins households surveyed, 99 percent use the internet at home. Of these connected homes, cable modem and digital subscriber lines (DSL) represent the vast majority of the market share at 94 percent. Additionally, the study indicated that internet usage is prevalent across all income and age groups. The survey also touched on customer service satisfaction levels, which plays a role in the market demand for alternative broadband services. Respondents were asked to rank customer satisfaction of various services (cable television, satellite television, non-pay television – antenna and basic channels, DSL, cable modem, telephone and electric utility) on a scale of 1- 10 (with 10 being “totally satisfied” and 1 being “not at all satisfied”). The average customer 19 satisfaction ranged from a high for electric utility at a mean rating of 8.7, to 6.8 for DSL and 6.6 for cable modem. Sixty-four percent of the respondents rated the City’s Utility brand a 9 or 10 rating while other incumbent internet services had significantly lower ratings. Lower prices, increased internet speed, and reliability dominate the wish list of service improvements respondents identified for broadband. Branding and bundling were of secondary importance. Additionally, 81 percent of respondents acknowledged the importance of having low cost, high speed internet. In addition to questions about current broadband services, market share and customer service satisfaction, the broadband market demand survey asked respondents about their interest and purchase intent (willingness to switch) for broadband services if offered by an alternative fiber network provider. Assuming the competition at a $70 per month price and a City-owned network at $50 per month price, seventy percent of respondents would definitely or probably switch to a City-owned fiber network for internet services. Furthermore, if respondents answered they would ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ switch to the fiber network for internet services, they were asked the reason for the switch. The top three reasons given by respondents for a switch were: need for higher capacity, lower prices and the City as a preferred provider. If both the City and competitive offering were priced at $70 per month, only 45 percent of respondents indicated they would definitely or probably switch to the City-owned network. 81% 14% 2% 2% 1% Very Important Somewhat Important Neither Somewhat Unimportant Very Unimportant Importance of Having Low Cost High-Speed Internet Fort Collins 20 Online Residential Broadband Survey Due to wide-spread community interest, staff made an edited version of the residential market demand phone survey available online to anyone who wanted to participate. This was not intended to be statistically valid, but rather to allow more residents to engage in the conversation. More than 1,800 responses were received and the results were consistent with the original, statistically valid, residential phone survey; the exception being that the online questionnaire saw a higher response from younger demographics. Top Attributes Relative to Importance Comparable Results Online Questionnaire Participants Statistically Valid Phone Survey Participants Speed Reliability Price Price Reliability Speed Customer Service Customer Service Low Income In October 2015, 33 percent (or ~8,744) of Poudre School District (PSD) students participated in the free or reduced lunch program. This program provides subsidized meals for those households that meet the 185 percent of poverty level qualification. The data provided by PSD was then compared to the census data for Fort Collins to verify that 5.4 percent of all households are eligible for the free meals participation program. The low income, affordable tier program will be available to those households at the 1.3 income: poverty ratio to match the free meal participation requirements, and calculates to be approximately 3,332 households. The “Affordable Internet” tier program is not been fully defined. Staff anticipates this will occur during the initial operational planning stage if the retail model is pursued. 1% 79% 18% 10% 2% 43% 44% 3% I Would Switch to Comcast I Would Switch to Ft Collins I Would Retain My Current Service Don't Know “If these services were available to your home, and offer the same speed, which of the following statements best describes your likelihood to switch?” Comcast $70/City $50 Both $70 21 Small- to Mid-Size Business As of 2016, the City of Fort Collins has approximately 8,000 small- to mid-size businesses (SMB). Eighty-eight percent of all Fort Collins businesses are defined as small businesses (less than 50 employees), which is similar to the national average. Nationally, SMBs are responsible for 64 percent of new jobs and 50 percent of non-farm gross domestic product (GDP). Uptown prepared a separate quantitative, statistically valid phone survey that was deployed to the small- to mid-size business segment in March 2016. The survey found that Comcast and CenturyLink are the only two Internet Service Providers (ISPs) with significant SMB market share in Fort Collins (about 96 percent of respondents). Two-thirds of SMB respondents in Fort Collins are under contract for internet and voice services. Additionally, SMB respondents had similar responses to the residential respondents in regard to customer satisfaction by service and customer needs. Reliability, increased speed and lower internet prices dominated the wish list for service improvements for SMBs. One item to note is that SMBs put a larger emphasis on the need for improved reliability (48 percent of SMBs identified this on their wish list), due to reliance on technology and the internet for business operations (merchant service transactions, ecommerce, cloud-based storage, etc.). 22 54% 42% 1% 0% 2% Comcast CenturyLink Rise Broadband FRII Other Internet Access Provider for SMB Market Share 14% 26% 6% 2% 8% 8% 2% 34% 10M 20M 30M 40M 50M 100M >100M Don't Know SMB Subscribed Download Speed 23 66% 6% 2% 26% SMB Incidence of Provider Contracts Both Internet and Voice Internet Only Voice Only No Contract 10% 10% 48% 34% 32% Customer Service Nothing Reliability Increased Internet Speed Lower Prices SMB Wish List for Improved Broadband Services 24 Large Business / Institution The objective of the large business / institution qualitative survey was to identify the current capacity needs, future capacity needs, unmet needs and level of support for a fiber broadband network. Those interviewed could be major commercial account customers, and/or influencers in the community. A total of 24 interviews were conducted and the responses aggregated for confidentiality. Findings from large business/institution qualitative surveys: • Fiber is widely available and there is high incidence of dedicated access via fiber • The survey found that due to multiple incumbent providers competing in the large business/institution segment • Advance data needs are being met with dedicated connections for the business/institutions sole usage • Most firms currently have sufficient bandwidth, but the City FTTP network would be considered as an option for redundancy and potential cost savings 6% 24% 36% 2% 4% 0% 2% 2% 24% 11% 15% 45% 4% 0% 0% 0% 3% 23% CenturyLink Comcast The City FRII PRPA TDS Telecom Rise Broadband A new provider Don't Know High Speed Internet Provider Preference SMB Residential 25 Subscribership (“Take Rate”) Uptown consultants utilized a conservative research technique from the Packaged Goods sector to estimate potential subscribership rate, or take rate. This technique has been utilized for more than 30 years. It was developed as firms realized research respondents, for various reasons, overstate purchase intentions during research as compared to the eventual penetration of a product that was commercially launched. One measure of success for municipal broadband projects is by its “take rate,” defined as the number actual number of subscribers divided by the total potential subscribers. The consultants estimated the take rate for City-provided internet service in Fort Collins at 38.8 percent for residential and 45 percent for small business. With the potential launch of DOCSIS3.1 by Comcast, a competing internet service that provides 1Gbps down and 30Mbps up, Uptown revised the City’s residential take rate to 30.2 percent. During the recent development of the retail model business plan, staff re-evaluated the pricing model based on industry standards and long-term sustainability. Additionally, during this time, Comcast announced the deployment of DOCSIS 3.1 to the Colorado market. This technology utilizes Comcast’s existing coaxial cables and can provide 1 Gbps download and 35 Mbps upload speeds. Due to these changes (listed below), Uptown Services recommended re-surveying the community to confirm the take rate: 1. City of Fort Collins revised the Tier 1 (50 Mbps) internet price from $40 to $50 per month 2. City of Fort Collins revised the Tier 2 (1 Gbps) internet price from $50 to $70 per month 3. Comcast’s DOCSIS 3.1 pricing is $159.95 per month without a contract, and $110 per month with a one-year contract. 19 17 1 15 24 17 19 1 3 19 5 8 3 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Will Consider the City? Under Contract? Have Unmet Needs? Have Redundancy? Dedicated Connection? Have Fiber? Fiber Available? Large Institutional Partner Needs Yes No 26 4. Comcast is testing a $70 per month promotional offer in Longmont, where NextLight 1 Gbps is offered. Based on the survey responses, Uptown Services has estimated the City’s retail model take rate to be 28.2 percent. The following data shows that the estimated take rate is comparable to similar municipal benchmarks at the 5-year milestone. Five years signifies the completion of the construction period. Estimated take rates based on the statistically valid phone surveys conducted March 2016, April 2016 and June 2017: Pre-DOCSIS 3.1 Post-DOCSIS 3.1 Estimates Post-DOCSIS 3.1 Announcement* Residential Internet 38.8% 30.2% 28.2% SMB Internet 45% Residential Voice 28.6% 8.4% SMB Voice 41% *assuming $70 gig pricing for incumbents and City retail 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 Month Internet Penetration (By Month Since Launch) Sallisaw, OK Morristown, TN Pulaski, TN Wilson, NC Tullahoma, TN Murray, KY 27 Residential subscribed premises would reach approximately 18,000 in year 5 and grow with the population at 0.4 percent thereafter. Commercial subscribed premises would reach 3700 premises in year 5 and grow at 1.5 percent while staying at a constant take rate of 45 percent. Voice services take rate would erode throughout time from a high of 8.4 percent in year 4, to 4.7 percent in year 15, as this technology reaches end-of-life and citizens transition from land lines to cellular service. 28 V. Competitive Environment Incumbents The Fort Collins market is dominated by two major incumbents, Comcast and Century Link. Each of these incumbents operated within the City for several decades and provides all three services generally included in a bundled offering – internet, phone and video content. Century LinkTM (CL) has a significant fiber presence within the community to support their existing network with plans to extend further into new construction neighborhoods at some time in the future. The majority of new residential construction supported by CL is FTTP. CL stated the current average consumer does not need 1 Gbps service. CL shared data with City staff that indicates the maximum consumer need, accounting for multiple devices, is estimated at 75 Mbps with today’s applications. CL’s not committed to when, or if, they will serve all Fort Collins premises with a fiber connection. CL also shared they face a challenge of meeting their ROI requirements if they were to build out to the entire City with a fiber network. Comcast also has an extensive fiber presence within the community that primarily extends to the node within a neighborhood. Newly constructed neighborhoods are served by a combination of fiber and/or coax. Comcast also has not committed to a timeline for servicing all Fort Collins households with fiber. 57% 37% 4% 2% Current Internet Market Share (Households) Comcast CenturyLink Satellite Other 29 During the community engagement visits, many communities communicated significant challenges from their local incumbents, which illustrate the highly competitive market the City would enter with a retail model offering. The City’s anticipated 28.2 percent take rate would largely come from the market share of the two incumbents. INCUMBENT RESIDENTIAL INTERNET PRICING Download Upload Price Technology Comcast 10M 25M 75M 150M* 250M* 2M 5M 5M 10M 25M $49.95 $59.95 $74.95 $89.95 $149.95 Cable Modem (DOCSIS 3.0) 2G* (limited availability within 1/3 mile of fiber network) 2G MRC: $299.95 NRC: $1,000 (2 Year Term Contract w/ Penalty) Fiber 1G 1G Monthly: $140 3 Year Term: $70 Cable Modem (DOCSIS 3.1) CenturyLink 1.5M 7M 12M 20M 40M* 896k 896k 896k 896k 5M $44.00 $49.00 $54.00 $64.00 $74.00 DSL 30 Competitive Response Both incumbents have extensive resources, marketing teams and advertising budgets that can create a significant competitive issue for a retail model offering by the City. Comcast is a corporation that had $8B of after-tax profits in 2016, and CL is in the process of acquiring Level3 for approximately $34B. In addition, each incumbent also has legislative lobbyists that can influence future legislation and could impair the City’s ability to fund and launch a retail model. Wilson, NC spent approximately two years with legal and legislative hurdles before being able to launch their internet service. UTOPIA, a consortium of sixteen towns in Utah, started out as a retail model before legislation changed, which prevented municipalities from providing retail service. The network was in construction and had to switch to a wholesale or open access model. Various factors influenced the lack of success of UTOPIA, but they were ultimately unable to attract sufficient service providers to make the network economically viable. iProvo, Provo, UT’s municipal network also faced the same challenge as UTOPIA sold a $40M network to Google for $1, and UTOPIA is in conversation with a third party who is asking each premise within the service area pay an $18 per month utility fee to support the debt service and network operations. This scenario is intended to illustrate the potential risks and influence large incumbents can have within a local market. Comcast recently announced the DOCSIS 3.1 technology roll out that utilizes their existing coaxial network infrastructure. DOCSIS 3.1 offers 1 Gbps download speeds and 35 Mbps upload speeds. The retail price of Comcast’s 1Gbps service with no contract would be $159.95 per month. A promotional price of $109.99 per month with a one-year agreement will be offered in Fort Collins and Larimer County. The technology upgrade does require customers to perform a cable modem and router replacement, and a firmware upgrade. Comcast believes this new technology will meet the near-term needs of the community, and with future upgrades the existing copper cable is capable of multi-gigabit speeds. 5 6 7 8 9 Cable Satellite TV DSL Cable Modem Telephone Utility Satisfaction Rating by Service/Service Provider (Mean Rating on a 1 to 10 Scale) 31 Municipal Retail Implications Recently, the City Manager, Deputy City Manager and Chief Financial Officer visited several municipal-run broadband providers. The communities visited included: Wilson, NC; Chattanooga, TN; Cedar Falls, IA and Longmont, CO. The site visits allowed the attendees to openly discuss the challenges and opportunities that a municipal-owned retail ISP can have on the local community. Particular emphasis was placed on the governance of their municipal- owned broadband. Cedar Falls, IA Wilson, NC Chattanooga, TN Start Date 1995/2013 2008 2013 Market Share 85% 40% 55% Price – 50/100 Mbps $58/mth $35/mth $60/mth Price – 1G $117/mth $100/mth $70/Mth Households Served 12,000 8,300 84,000 1G Customers 36 100 5,000 Governance Board of Trustees Council Self-Executing Memo Board of Trustees L&P CEO decision Additional lessons learned from the site visits include: • Broadband is complex and very different from Light & Power – business mindset, market, etc. • Broadband is a part of the community brand and sense of place • Broadband creates economic advantage over those without connectivity • Each of the communities would do it again The recent market demand study conducted by Uptown Services indicates that given a choice, the majority of respondents prefer to receive high-speed internet from the City (see graph in IV.A.3). In addition, 78 percent of those surveyed ranked Fort Collins Utilities a 9 or 10 out of 10 in terms of satisfaction. The citizens of Fort Collins have trust and brand recognition in the City organization. There’s a strong preference for the City within the mass market, both residential and SMBs. 32 VI. Operating Plan Retail Model Summary The retail model assumes the City builds out a fiber network across the entire city limits and ultimately across the entire GMA. The City also operates the network, provides internet and possibly offers other services to subscribers. Marketing, customer acquisition, repair and maintenance to the network, customer service representatives inside of call centers, and administrative and management oversight functions will also need to be created and managed by the City. The City needs to issue bonds in the range of $130M to $150M to support the construction and infrastructure needed to provide these services. Critical success factors within the financial model include: 1) cost of network build, 2) take rate of the services from Fort Collins premises and 3) the price for the service. Critical operational success factors include: 1) successfully operating within a competitive environment vs. a traditional monopolistic utility environment, 2) gaining expertise and experience within a fast-changing technology business and 3) establishing appropriate governance and oversight structures that allow the broadband business to operate in a competitive market. Critical Operational Success Factors The City is focused on service. That will be a strong asset within a broadband launch. Staff’s commitment to serving the community and reputation for providing outstanding customer service will be a considerable asset. A shift from an order-taking mindset, current utility operations don’t require marketing and selling as they are the only source for citizens to acquire these services, to customer acquisition through marketing and selling will be required. Agility, nimbleness, market analysis, and closing-the-sale are essential attributes. While the City has experience installing fiber in the ground and utilizing that fiber to monitor and maintain various systems around the city, operating and marketing a network providing retail service in competition with large corporations will require a different expertise and focus from management and staff. Technology will shift, consumer preferences will change, and the organization will need to be adaptable and responsive to these changes. A governance structure different from the current Utility Enterprise governance will need to be established; one that provides the ability to have private discussion with City Council on matters of strategy, pricing, implementation, service plan changes, etc. All communities visited stressed the need for a governance model that is different from the traditional municipal utility given the competitive nature of the broadband market. Operations management will be required to make timely business decisions. In order for a retail business to succeed, operational decisions must be made as needed to compete in a time- sensitive, competitive environment. These decisions may have significant material, financial, 33 operational, or personnel impact. Higher level discussions that are less time-sensitive and more focused on overall strategy, vision, or mission can be driven by a council or a board of directors. Capital Requirement Capital requirements will be in the range of $130M-$150M depending on the final architecture and subscriber adoption. Capital expenses include: network construction, network start-up costs, issuance fees, capitalized bond interest, debt service, working capital, early installations, etc. The estimated range of investment accommodates contingencies which could include possible construction cost overruns, higher than anticipated demand, market competition factors, or other unforeseen cost implications. The largest cost component of the capital requirement will be the network construction, currently estimated at more than $80M. Network construction amount estimates rest largely on the “passing cost” (explained below). The final passing cost used in the retail model includes a contingency to assist in managing total required capital. Other significant network start-up related expenses of approximately $30M include: facility equipment and systems, vehicles, engineering design, working capital, and electronic equipment within the network. Passing Cost Fort Collins will require a total of more than 800 miles of fiber installed to reach the approximately 62,000 premises within the GMA. “Passing Cost” is a key variable in modeling the cost of a network and describes the cost of installing fiber within the City streets to pass near each premise. A key characteristic of Fort Collins that increases the passing cost is the fact that all fiber will need to be installed underground. Ninety-nine percent of all Fort Collins utilities are Capital Requirements Amount Network Construction $80M Electronics, Drop & Installation $18M Facility, Systems, Vehicles, Start up $8M Bond Issuance Fees, capitalized interest, Miscellaneous $12M Engineering, Design, Inspection $4M Subtotal $121M Working Capital $9M Contingency $0-$20M Total $130-150M 34 underground and, per City Code, all new installations are required to be underground as well. Compared to aerial network installations, this dramatically increases the cost of installation but would increase reliability and reduce maintenance costs overall. To estimate the cost of installing fiber throughout the Fort Collins network, sample neighborhoods were analyzed. Density, described as number of premises passed per mile, is a key driving variable determining the cost of network installation. Initially, seven sample design representative neighborhoods were analyzed (listed below). The “passing per mile” metric was calculated along with material and labor costs to arrive at a “Total Per Passing” cost for each neighborhood. The neighborhood was then given a weight that describes the percentage of Fort Collins GMA that particular neighborhood represented. Multi-Development Units (MDU), such as apartment complexes, were analyzed separately due to their unique characteristics. MDUs were estimated at 50 percent of the average cost of a single-family home installation. The final weighted average cost per passing for Fort Collins was estimated at $855. Due to the varying nature of Fort Collins neighborhoods, the uncertainty of conduit availability, and potential issues with underground installation, a 15 percent contingency factor was added. The final modeled passing cost equated to $984/premise. NEIGHBORHOOD SAMPLE DESIGN Sample Design Area UG Miles Passing s Passings per Mile Weight Materials per Passing Labor per Passing Total per Passing Quail Hollow 3.2 243 75 30.1% $140 $980 $1,120 English Ranch 2.5 243 96 22.6% $132 $781 $913 Alta Vista 0.7 63 95 6.4% $128 $792 $920 Old Town 2.2 235 98 5.7% $126 $699 $825 Hearthfire 2.6 174 66 2.1% $165 $1,097 $1,262 Taft Canyon 3.8 235 62 1.8% $170 $1,187 $1,356 Willow Brook 0.6 81 143 0.0% $98 $530 $628 MDUs* 0.0 0 0 31.3% $73 $424 $497 Weighted Average / Total 15.6 1,274 82 100% $116 $739 $855 15% Contingency $984 35 Outside Plant Costs Weighted Average Per Passing Materials $116 Labor $739 Total $855 Contingency @ 15%* $128 Total $984 Drop Cost Included in the total capital requirement is the “drop cost.” Passing a premise does not connect the premise to the network or enable internet access; it simply means the fiber is in close proximity to the premise. The fiber connection must still go through the “drop” phase before a premise is actually connected to the network. The “drop cost” is the expense incurred to connect the fiber in the street to the premise. There are two components to the drop cost: pre-install and premise installation. Pre-install includes trenching and installing the fiber underground on the premise property. Premise installation costs primarily consists of the equipment (ONT, power cable, connectors, etc.) needed at the premise to connect the fiber. Total cost of a drop to a premise will average approximately $591 per premise with the highest cost variable being the contract labor component. During the five years of construction, contract labor is used to avoid the need to hire full-time employees on a long-term basis. Contract labor is needed temporarily during construction to subsidize employee labor capacity to complete pre- installs in a timely manner, and occasionally needed for premise installs during high activity periods. Drop Components Average Cost Contract Labor $295.79 ONT Expenditures $172.57 Fiber cable, UPS, Power $123.42 36 Total $591.78 Pricing Assumptions City retail residential pricing has been determined to be $70/month for gig service, $50/month for 50Mbps service, and $25/mo for voice (phone) service. City Retail Model Residential Pricing Affordable Internet TBD 50 Mbps Symmetrical $50/month 1 Gbps Symmetrical $70/month Voice $25/month This pricing compares favorably to other municipal offerings around the country, as well as incumbent offerings, and accomplishes the additional benefit sought by the City, namely competitive pricing. Comparative Municipal Offerings around the Country Area 30 Mbps 50 Mbps 60 Mbps 100 Mbps 1 Gbps RS Fiber - Minnesota $50 $70 $130 Arrowhead Electric - MN $60 $70 $100 Reedsburg, WI $45 $75 Sandy, Oregon $60 Sebewaing, MI $35 $55 $105 $160 Chatanooga, TN $58 $70 Lafayette, LA $53 $63 $110 Longmont, CO $40 $50 Cedar Rapids, IA $46 $105 Co-Mo Connect - MO $100 Ozarks Electric - AR $50 $80 Average $45 $58 $53 $67 $94 Commercial service will have a full range of possibilities that includes various speeds and symmetrical options. Residential service is symmetrical by default. The range of the commercial data offering would be:  Standard Internet Access o Shared capacity connection over GPON o No contract requirement and no Service Level Agreement (SLA) guarantees o Can upgrade to symmetrical bandwidth and add premium BGP Routing (some tiers)  Dedicated Internet Access o Dedicated capacity via Active E connection (same ONT) 37 o Requires dedicated fiber strand; practical option for pure commercial service areas o Contract agreement with SLA and term requirement  High Capacity Direct Fiber Access o Multiple connection options:  Direct routed connection  Customer CPE connection (either non-protected media converter or protected) o Protected connection is optional o Contract agreement with SLA and term requirement o Resale rights may be included  Point-to-Point (Transport Circuit): Dedicated pathway of defined capacity without access  MAN: Customized access and transport solution for multi-site business or institution City Commercial Download/Upload City Commercial Price 25 Mbps/5 Mbps Add Symmetrical $59.95/month + $10 50 Mbps/10 Mbps Add Symmetrical $69.95/month + $30 100 Mbps/20 Mbps Add Symmetrical $89.95/month + $50 1 Gbps/500 Mbps Add Symmetrical $599.95/month $200 Given the wide range of commercial possibilities, the practicality of modeling each option is not feasible and produces diminishing returns with false precision. The retail model therefore focuses on the three lowest material revenue streams shown above and accounts for the majority of commercial revenue streams. City Commercial Retail Model City Commercial Price 25Mbps / 5Mbps $59.95/month 50Mbps / 10Mbps $69.95/month 100Mbps / 20Mbps $89.95/month High capacity options refer to dedicated bandwidth. This type of installation requires a custom quote for both the recurring and non-recurring fees ($4,500/month for transport and access on average) and term contract (typically 3 years). Commercial custom install fee to cover unique costs per individual installation. Unlike the standard internet service offerings, the high capacity installs should be reviewed on a case-by-case basis to establish pricing. 38 Marketing Plan Objectives – Marketing Plan The objectives of the marketing and customer service strategy are to secure and maintain a minimum of 30 percent market share of all premises passed by installing one or more services per premise. The long-term goal will be to secure and maintain a 45 percent to 50 percent market share. Three distinct principles guide the product design, promotion, delivery and support:  Provide excellent service with high quality technology  Educate customers on how an FTTP product improves their quality of life  Capitalize on the strengths and stability of City of Fort Collins brand and high quality customer service The survey completed by Uptown highlighted that Fort Collins Utilities has the highest customer service satisfaction ratings among service providers. A cornerstone to the marketing and customer service strategy is positioning the image of Fort Collins Utilities as stable, reliable and efficient. An equally important point to be communicated in the marketing message and reinforced by customer service is the strength of the fiber technology platform. It offers customers increased bandwidth, content and speed, along with more options for interactive services. Fiber has no bandwidth limitation. The fiber network architecture will provide symmetric bandwidth or equal speed for information uploads and downloads. That message will be translated by educating customers about the ways this technology will improve their daily lives. Additionally, fiber can be a platform to other technologies that could create additional opportunities for the City to provide additional services such as wireless, Smart Cities capabilities, etc. 6.7 7.7 5.6 6.8 6.6 7.5 8.7 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Cable TV Satellite TV Non-Pay TV DSL Cable Modem Telephone Utility Satisfaction Rating by Service/Service Provider (Mean Rating on a 1-10 Scale) 39 Budget Marketing budget (not including Marketing Coordinator) in year 1 is $150,000 or one half of a full year’s budget due to operations still being in startup mode without a full-year of activity. The budget in year 2-5 budget is $300,000/annually. Year 6+ with on-going operations has a budget of 1 percent of revenue, which equates to an average of approximately $250,000 per year. Promotion & Advertising Brand Positioning: Fort Collins Utilities has built a solid reputation for customer service. Additionally, creating excitement as one of the first FTTP communities reinforces that the City of Fort Collins is an innovative and progressive community. For the FTTP project, it will be key to capitalize on this image and reinforce favorable brand reputation by extending its performance in offering broadband services. Awareness Advertising: The City will implement local ads and promotions. These include print advertising, social media, sponsorships and event marketing (booths at local events). Direct Marketing and Promotion: The direct marketing program will benefit from a community- level scale of the Utilities brand. These tactics involve targeted marketing as the network is rolled out within specific areas with specific messages and promotional offers. The objective is to get the recipient to respond with information or purchase inquiry (either online or over the phone). The most important direct marketing tactic is direct mail and door hangers, as well as other viable tactics such as bill inserts and marketing events. Customer Service Plan Customer Service Strategy A key component to gaining customers, and more importantly, retaining customers is the service and support they receive. The overriding goals of customer service are to resolve customer issues with the initial call and remain accessible to customers at all times. An important marketing message can focus on the legacy of excellent customer service already provided by the City of Fort Collins. In an effort to achieve those goals, customers will enjoy multiple points of entry to the customer service department. Representatives will be available to handle both call-in and walk-in inquires. 40 Additionally, the Utilities website will offer options to review product and service availability, order services, view billing statements and process bill payments. Option 1: Customer service associates will be managed and integrated as part of the existing Utilities Customer Connection Department (“Customer Connections”). Option 2: Outsource first tier customer call center to a third party provider that runs 24-hours a day. A local presence will be a priority. Customer Service Planning The customer service teams’ primary focus is customer satisfaction, to maintain customer trust and loyalty, to sell the customer products based on their needs and interests, and to ensure each customer values our products and services. Important performance metrics and indicators include:  Availability – monthly availability of 99.925 percent  Mean Time to Repair – monthly average not to exceed two hours Monday - Friday  Customer Call Wait Time –will not exceed a monthly average of two minutes Customer Service Staff Customer Connections success relies on the ability to recruit, hire, train, motivate and retain a team of talented and knowledgeable professionals. Commitment to provide superior customer service is implicit in all job descriptions and it is important that all customer service representatives (CSR) share our commitment to make each customer experience value added and build a lasting customer relationship. The team of training CSRs will respond to incoming customer calls, handle customer contact in retail locations, up-sell customers (when additional products are available), and make outbound calls to customers for follow-up. They will consider every call taken as a sales opportunity to respond to customer orders to:  Process new sales and up-sell orders (when additional products are available)  Process transfer service and move orders  Process downgrade and disconnect order  Process equipment-related orders  Categorize and process order types  Ask open-ended questions to determine which product offerings best suit the customer’s household needs Uptown estimated that Fort Collins Utilities would need to add four CSRs in year two of the network development and an additional two full-time equivalents (FTE) by year five. 41 Additionally, Customer Connections will need to hire two FTEs dedicated to Commercial Accounts. Personnel Requirements Position Title Base Salary Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 General Manager (GM) $135,000 1 1 1 1 1 Data Technician $105,000 1 2 2 2 2 Commercial Account Representative $80,000 1 2 2 2 2 Sales Engineer $80,000 1 1 1 1 1 Field Operations Supervisor $80,000 1 1 1 Marketing Coordinator $75,000 0.5 1 1 1 1 MDU Account Manager $75,000 1 2 2 2 2 Contingency $70,000 5 5 5 5 5 Maintenance Technicians $65,000 1 1 2 2 Technical Service Representatives (TSR) $60,000 4 4 5 6 Service Technicians $60,000 1 3 4 4 Installation Technicians $55,000 3 7 6 5 Customer Service Representatives (CSR) $50,000 4 4 5 6 Total 10.5 27 34 37 38 The model assumes the base salary and headcount reported above plus 30 percent for benefits and 2.5 percent annual increase. Management including the General Manager, Data Technician, Commercial Account Representative, Sales Engineer, Marketing Coordinator and Multi-dwelling Unit (MDU) Account Manager will be hired in year one with growths through year three to reach steady state. Front-line hiring will start in year two. Headcount will vary during the five year build out to align with start-up activity with the following numbers representing steady state. Five contingency headcount have been added to the model to account for unforeseen issues or productivity concerns.  6 Customer Service Representatives - inbound/office sales, order entry and first tier support  6 Technical Service Representatives - second tier customer support, dispatch and service provisioning  CSR/TSR staffed at 1 FTE per 2,000 accounts growing to 4,000 by Year 5, but with a minimum of 3 FTE for CSR/TSR to ensure phone coverage.  5 Install Technicians 42 o Installs are two-phases, with a pre-install followed by a separate premise install. All pre-installs are completed by a contractor at a fixed rate ($200) for Years 1-5, and then insourced. Premise installs are completed by internal FTE, except in Year 4 (25%) and Year 5 (50%) by a contractor at a fixed rate ($250) to maintain Install Tech headcount at long-term levels. Each Install Tech can complete three installs per day, growing to four per day by Year 5.  2 Maintenance Technicians – maintain fiber system from backbone to network access point, 1 per 1,000 plant miles of fiber  4 Service Technicians – fix subscriber problems o Service call volume equals 50 percent of all subscribers/year dropping to 25 percent by Year 5. Each Service Tech can complete four per day growing to 6 per day by Year 5 Compensation is based on the City’s wage scale with 30% benefits assumed and 2.5 percent annual salary increases. Annual salary increases may need to be evaluated due to industry standards. Facilities A Broadband Office and Shop Facility will be required with approximately 17,000 square feet of both office and shop space. Financial assumptions assume a facility would be built on existing City-owned land and 2017 cost estimates are $5.6M. Leased space will be evaluated during detailed business planning. From the start of design, the time to build appropriate facilities is estimated to take 19 months, and will require interim facilities for operations during the first 1.5 years. 43 Milestone Timeline 44 VII. Network Architecture Network Technologies Overview Cisco's latest Virtual Networking Index shows the average North American home has seven Internet-capable devices and by the year 2020, that number will swell more than 12 devices per person in a household. This has significant implications for our broadband networks. While our appetite for bandwidth is increasing, new and evolving applications will stimulate this demand even more. A few examples are:  4K and 8K High Definition televisions  Automated homes, where consumers control appliances through phones or tablets  Fully-integrated security systems, where consumers can protect their homes through sensors and video  Smart thermostats to reduce energy usage  eHealth applications and other video or data intensive services  Smart City and other Internet of Things (IOT) applications The demand for widespread deployments of high speed broadband is accelerating. Existing service providers are at a crossroad on how to best meet this demand while leveraging existing investments and maximizing limited capital resources. Existing service providers face different situations based on the type network they manage today and on whether they serve urban areas or more rural communities. Given fiber optic cable has virtually unlimited capacity, it forms the backbone of the Internet, cable TV networks, telephone (including cellular) networks, private business networks and even data center networks. As customers, we expect wireless access be available for convenience. Wireless access is primarily available via Wi-Fi and supplemented with cellular data plans. The communications community generally agrees that fiber will meet the world’s needs today and into the foreseeable future. The only debates involve the speed of the transition. The reason for this is simple: FTTP offers far more bandwidth, reliability, flexibility and security and a longer economic life than alternative technologies, even though its deployment price is comparable. It’s less expensive to operate and maintain than copper. Networks are composed of two parts – the transport medium and the technology that provides services or bandwidth. Copper, fiber and wireless are examples of transport mediums. Various technologies are used to provide services over these medium. Networks today are composed of at least two transport mediums and many use all three. The technology employed for services is discussed later. Transport medium configurations: 1) Fiber to the Node/Curb (FTTN) – used by Telephone Companies (telcos) a) Fiber is deployed to the neighborhood outdoor telco cabinets housing VDSL2 Terminals b) Leverages copper telephone twisted pair lines using VDSL2 and ,in the future, G.fast 45 2) Hybrid Fiber Coax (HFC) – Used by cable companies a) Fiber is deployed to a node in a neighborhood b) Coax (copper) cable is used from the node to the home or business. c) The number of amplifiers and other devices required is dependent on distance and condition of the copper d) Uses Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification, or DOCSIS e) Bandwidth is shared at the node 3) Fiber to the Premise (FTTP) – Used by all types of service providers, mostly in greenfield applications. Fiber is deployed all the way to the premise 4) Wireless - almost a customer expectation a) Uses radio frequencies to carry data b) Limited by distance, electrical and radio interference c) There is an inverse relationship between the radio frequency used and the ability to penetrate physical objects (including leaves and moisture in the air) and the amount of data-carrying capacity Fiber optic cable is made up of strands of hair-thin glass that carry information by transmitting pulses of light. The pulses are turned on and off very quickly. A single fiber can carry multiple streams of information at the same time over different wavelengths, or colors of light. Fiber has many advantages over copper wire or coaxial cable. It can transmit high bandwidth over long distances, it is rugged and weather proof, resistant to electrical and radio interference, and requires lower operating expenditures. Copper cable, by contrast, carries low voltage electrical signals. Distance and state of the physical plant greatly impact copper’s ability to transmit data. It can support high bandwidth for short distances. The longer a signal travels on copper, the lower the bandwidth. Distance isn’t the only constraint for copper. Copper plants are subject to interference from electrical and radio sources. This interference can quickly degrade the Signal to Noise ratio. These limitations as well as the active nature require a very skilled technical staff and power to run the devices through the power distribution. These are just a few of the factors that drive a higher operating expense as compared to fiber. The above is also true for wireless networks. Tweaking more bandwidth from either wireless or copper plants becomes increasingly difficult and expensive as time goes on. This isn’t true of optical fiber, whose capacity is effectively unlimited. As mentioned above, there are different technologies used to deliver services to bandwidth over the communications networks. 46 Fiber Technologies Fiber technologies used for a Fiber-to-the-Premise (FTTP) deployment are lumped into one of two categories: Active or Passive. The primary differences are whether active devices are used in the distribution network and effective distance to a customer. Active systems have powered devices in the field and can drive a signal for longer distances. The power requirements and operating expense is less for an active system than a copper plant. Active systems are used primarily in more dense applications such as corporate networks, campus environments or data centers. Most operators are deploying passive systems known as Passive Optical Networks (PON). A PON system has an Optical Line Terminal (OLT) as an originating point, usually in a central office. The terminating point is an Optical Network Terminal (ONT), which is located at the customers premise. Passive splitters, based on customer density, are placed in the network between the OTL and ONT. The passive splitter is usually a 1:32 split and reduces fiber required in the networks. Most of us have heard of the Verizon FIOS and Google Fiber networks, but all of the large telcos and cable operators have deployed PON networks for some of their footprint. Cable operators are leaning toward an Ethernet PON (EPON) system as it is has a migration path that uses the existing DOCSIS element management systems. Gigabit PON (GPON) is being deployed by most other providers. Currently GPON provides higher bandwidth options but EPON is moving quickly toward higher bandwidth options. GPON is an ITU standard (G.984) that delivers 2.5 gigabits downstream and 1.25 gigabits upstream using multiple Layer 2 networks giving the ability to separately transport services. Standard distance is 20 km with an option to use long range optics extending the reach to 40 or 60 km, and can use a split ratio of up to 128 customers. Most deployments use a 1:32 customer split. Lower splits can increase range. NG-PON2 is ITU standard and the next evolutionary phase of GPON. It provides for 10 gigabits symmetrical with fixed optics and allows for 40 gigabits using tunable optics. It is currently being deployed primarily with fixed optics. Most equipment sold today is available with an option to upgrade to the new standard. EPON is an IEEE standard (IEEE802.ah) that delivers 1 gigabit symmetrical bandwidth using a single Layer 2 network to transport all services. An amendment, IEEE 802.3av, provides for 10 gigabits down and 1 gigabit up. Most deployments use a 1:32 split. No upper range is defined. 47 Copper Technologies As mentioned earlier, copper and wireless transport medium are subject to many of the same limitations: distance, electric and radio interface, signal cross talk, etc. As such, the technical solutions leverage many of the same features including vectoring, Forward Error Correction, Signal to Noise improvements, etc. They are pulling out every trick in the book to wring out as much bandwidth as possible from these networks. This requires the physical plants be well maintained and continually swept, and requires a very accomplished technical staff to run, thus driving higher operating cost. Cable plants or HFC plants use DOCSIS for providing bandwidth or services. The most widely deployed generation of DOCSIS technology, known as 3.0, is capable of providing a gigabit per second (Gbps) of broadband capacity downstream and 100 Megabit per second (Mbps) upstream. The newest generation of DOCSIS broadband, known as 3.1, provides a near-term path toward continued improvement of cable broadband performance, with network capacity up to 10 gigabits per second downstream and 1 Gbps upstream. These are asymmetrical products and share this bandwidth across a node. Bandwidth available is determined by number of free channels available for bonding. Each channel can provide roughly 38 Mbps of throughput for DOCSIS 3.0 and between 50 Mbps and 63 Mbps for DOCSIS 3.1. CableLabs is working on a technology that will enable fully symmetrical speeds, bringing upstream capacity on par with the 10 gigabit per second downstream capacity of DOCSIS 3.1 broadband. This is known as Full Duplex DOCSIS 3.1. One of the main changes to DOCSIS 3.1 is orthogonal frequency domain multiplexing (OFDM). OFDM makes quantum leaps in the amount of data capacity and speed available – sometimes as much as 50 percent more capacity over the same spectrum. Where DOCSIS 3.0 was able to achieve 6.3 max bits/Hz, DOCSIS 3.1 is able to achieve 10.5 max bit/Hz at 4096 QAM. In a more typical situation where multiple QAMs are being used at the same time, DOCSIS 3.1 is still able to achieve 8.5 bits/Hz, making it 35 percent more efficient. Most cable plants run over 870 MHz of available spectrum. This is broken down into 6 MHz channels. Several of these are reserved leaving about 132 useable channels. These channels provide both video and data. Different channels must be dedicated for upstream and downstream bandwidth. This is one reason for the asymmetrical nature of DOCSIS. Due to new video compression technologies, you can get about three High Definition video channels per 6 MHz channel. Given cable companies are deploying hundreds of channels, you can see why they are struggling to provide the high speeds customer are expecting. With DOCSIS 3.0, 1 gig of bandwidth uses roughly 27 channels of capacity for the downstream path alone. That is why most systems provide speeds significantly less than 1 Gbps. DOCSIS 3.1 provides for 35 to 50 percent higher data throughput per channel, but even this isn’t enough to meet future needs. Therefore, DOCSIS 3.1 also does away with the 6 MHz channel size and allows for sub-carrier 48 bonding to more efficiently use of the available spectrum. But in order to maximize bandwidth throughput, the coax loops must be shortened, with amplifiers and other devices removed. This helps mitigate two of the limitations of a copper plant: distance and interference. For fiber-to-the-node (FTTN) deployments, the most prevalent technology is a version of DSL – VDSL2. This is ITU standard G.933.2. As this is a copper technology, it is subject to the same issues as coax and wireless. The bandwidth provided is very limited to between 50 and 100 Mbps. To maximize the bandwidth available, the distance sweet spot is between 500 and 1000 feet. A new standard, G.fast, under ideal conditions and with vectoring (crosstalk cancellation) and bonding (simultaneous use of more than one pair of copper wires), can provide 500 Mbps symmetrical bandwidth up to 300 feet from a fiber node. G.fast may prove to be an excellent solution for retrofitting apartment buildings with fiber to the basement (as long as those buildings already have good internal copper wiring), but it requires bringing fiber very close to customer premises and is still limited in comparison with true fiber to the home. Using the 2.4 spectrum provides lower bandwidth but a greater distance. Conversely the 5GHz spectrum provides higher data throughput with limited distances. Wireless Technologies The two most widely deployed wireless technologies are Wi-Fi and 4G cellular. Wi-Fi is an IEEE standard- 802.11. The most current version is 802.11a wave 2. It uses both the 2.4 and 5 GHz unlicensed spectrum. This is the technology that most of us have in our home and are very familiar with the user experience obstacles such as: distances are very limited, cross talk is rampant and internal walls and other obstructions are a real problem. The primary methodology to drive higher bandwidth is through the utilization of more antennas and bonding the antennas. Unfortunately, while routers are making good progress on this front, very few end devices (PCs, laptops, tablets, etc.) are leveraging the multiple antenna bond feature. The cellular industry has deployed its fourth generation network known as 4G or LTE. The original specification was for 100 Mbps, with the latest versions supporting up to 1Gbps shared across the entire cell site which is the potential bandwidth shared by all users connected to a cellular antenna. Therefore, a wireless user might get high speeds for a moment or two, if no one else is around. Cell sites vary in size generally covering around five or six miles. Unfortunately, bandwidth drops off very quickly. To illustrate, if you move a quarter of the way from the cell tower to the edge of the cell service area, you can see a 50 percent drop off in bandwidth. Most cell sites utilize fiber backhaul with a target of 300 Mbps of backhaul capacity. Large companies and the media are already hyping “5G,” despite the fact that we are years away from a 5G standard and nobody actually knows how fast 5G will be. Today, 5G is primarily a marketing term, and often a misleading one. When the average person hears “5G,” they most likely assume it means that gigabit cell phones are around the corner. “5G” today is being used 49 to describe not only the upcoming 5G standard but also for small cell 4G technology being used to fill gaps or relieve congestion, in existing 4G cell sites. It also often confused with wireless connections using millimeter wave spectrum for point-to-point connections. 5G technology will utilize spectrum bands that are higher in frequency than has been typical for mobile services to date. Higher-range frequencies offer the potential of greater bandwidth for improved network capacity, but they do so while limiting effective distance. These characteristics lead to a fiber deep, small cell approach, as the most likely deployment for 5G. These 5G sites will cover hundreds of feet, instead of miles, as in today’s 4G deployments. This makes for an excellent urban deployment, but in rural areas where customer concentration is less, this can be an issue. Thus it is highly unlikely 5G will replace 4G for coverage “out of town,” and thus will not be a solution for the “digital divide” affecting those areas. To be clear, in the short run, there may be situations in which the use of 5G connections with fixed wireless backhaul may enable service to certain locations. These locations may be so remote that they are unlikely to ever receive wireline service, and therefore 5G may make sense. When compared to a 5G network that can deliver significant bandwidth using very high, very short-haul frequencies, FTTP is often less expensive and will have lower operational costs. This is particularly true when one considers how much fiber deployment will be needed to enable 5G. Implications All broadband providers today, wired and wireless alike, realize the way to increase broadband capability is to increase the amount of fiber in their network. Landline providers are replacing their copper cable with fiber, cable operators are replacing their coax cable with fiber, and even wireless providers are actually replacing their wireless networks with fiber by placing their towers, or small cells, closer to the customer. On the other hand, point-to-point wireless links, typically using so-called “millimeter wave” antennas, can be very useful to extend a fiber network to serve a specific neighborhood or building. This type of wireless is not cellular as each user gets much of the total bandwidth potential of the transmission link. Once bandwidth needs require an upgrade to fiber, the wireless link can often remain in place as a backup. Wireless services are important public amenities, but they are not substitutes or replacements for FTTP. Rather, they complement and extend existing fixed-fiber networks. Many wireless access points and cell sites are already fiber-connected, and the majority of them will be soon. Wireless service can thus be considered an application on a fiber network rather than a separate type of network. 50 For a cost comparison consider a standard city block. A rule of thumb for the cost of a fiber drop is typically $5 per foot (for buried or aerial). If you use an average fiber drop length in a town environment of 160 feet, the cost is typically $800 per customer. Therefore, the cost to install fiber drops to all 8-12 customers on a city block would range from $6,000 to $10,000. A small tower and 5G cell site would cost $30,000-$50,000. The cell site would also require commercial power and batteries if the wireless network were expected to work during a power outage. For 5G wireless, it appears that the customer premise electronics are at least as much as the FTTP electronics, and likely more expensive. The drop cost for the FTTP network is likely 25 percent of the cost of the 5G wireless drop. Also, considering that the FTTP network can deliver more than 100 times the speed and capacity of the 5G wireless network, it appears that the FTTP is a considerably better value if fixed broadband is the goal with the assumptions above. As mentioned earlier, the communications community generally agrees that fiber will meet the world’s needs today and into the foreseeable future with the only debate involving the speed of the transition. City of Fort Collins Assets Fiber Inventory Assessment  Fiber Network Characteristics o 144 fiber cable routed throughout the City in conduit o 112 fibers in use; 32 fibers “available”  Network Users o City Departments – Traffic, IT, Utilities (electric and water) o Third-party governmental entities – CSU, Larimer County, Schools o Private sector dark fiber leases – Level 3, FRII, i-cubed, “Yipes”  Fiber capacity o 32 fibers are likely not available throughout the network o City should reserve at least one spare buffer tube for maintenance o Capacity could be characterized as “scarce”  Applicability to Future Broadband Efforts o Backbone – could be used to connect network hub sites o Feeder – not sufficient capacity to provide capacity beyond hub sites Underground Infrastructure  Significant Fiber Conduit in place o Available maps show pervasive deployment of two-inch conduit o Feeder – not sufficient capacity to provide capacity beyond hub sites  Applicability to broadband effort o Additional microducts can be blown in with existing fiber cable o Spare conduit could support multiple fiber and/or microducts o Reduces feeder network construction requirements o Limits costly hard surface construction and new railroad crossings 51 o Not appropriate for distribution network  Implications of joint use with Electric Utility o Electric staff desires to route around structures with energized facilities o Would require creating path around manholes o Would avoid safety issues with non-qualified personnel o Would limit fiber damage in case of fire or explosion in manhole o Budget affected with creation of alternate paths Other Assets  Substations o Substation not equipped to handle telecom equipment o Most substations do have space for new telecom hut (~8’ x 12’) o Fiber conduit would need to be routed to new hut  Existing Fiber Network Equipment o Existing City network does not appear useful for FTTP o IT Department would prefer to be a customer of network o CSU Manages the Fort Collins network o No overlap beyond the use of 12-24 fibers for backbone systems  Tropos Wireless Network o System currently used for meter reading only – not wi-fi o Sized for collection of meter reading data – 10 routers per square mile o Consumer broadband would require 5x – 7x number of routers (>$5M) o Tropos 7320 routers do not support 802.11ac (limited to 802.11n) o Expanding Tropos system for broadband = expensive distraction that cannot perform at the same level as FTTP GPON in Model Gigabit Passive Optical Network (GPON)  2 backbone providers  2.4G downstream, 1.2G upstream  Single fiber delivery to subscriber optical network terminal (ONT)  Majority of FTTP deployments have been GPON  In GPON 1:32 @ 50%, utilization is 10-15% of 2.4Gbps available  Consumption tied to subscriber behavior not their provisioned bandwidth on fiber (high breakage on 1Gig service) Network Electronics GPON cards and ports = $50 per subscriber Outside Plant Materials GPON splitters = $15 more per passing 52 Technical Services GPON splitters require four splices / eight passings = $20 per passing Outside World – Content Two physically diverse Internet backbone connections desired GPON and Active Ethernet Summary GPON – Low Cost and Flexible  2.5G of shared downstream bandwidth  Flexible splitter placement and less demand for fiber strands  High port density – 5210 subs in one chassis (10 rank units)  Consumes less space in rack and 33 percent as much power required  Supports path to 10G GPON Active Ethernet – Futureproof  Dedicated GigE from serving switch to each subscriber  One strand from subscriber to serving switch location  Better suited for high capacity transport services  Longer reach – 60 km  Extreme fiber strand counts required without active field cabinets  Requires more fiber, space, power, cabinets, electronics and capital 53 VIII. Financial Model Base Case Assumptions  Majority of network will be GPON deployment  Costs based on similar municipal FTTP deployments o Headcount o Contractor costs o Equipment o Construction labor bids o Software proposals o CLEC partner terms  Assumes Comcast deployment of DOCSIS3.1 at $70 price point for gig services and resulting impact on take rate  Capital budget is based on sample design calculated “passing cost” plus 15 percent contingency $984/premise (see section VI.C.1 Passing Cost)  Debt interest rates 4 percent Series A and 5 percent Series B include 75 basis point contingency  Total Premises Assumed: o Residential: 62,000 o Commercial: 8,000 o High Capacity: 400  Take Rate: (see section IV.B Subscribership) o Residential Internet: 28.2 percent o Commercial Internet: 45 percent o Voice: 8.4% high point in year 4 (0.3 percent erosion assumed yearly post year 4)  Pricing (see section VI.D Pricing Assumptions) o Residential $70/month for 1Gbps, $50/month for 50Mbps o Affordable Internet tier to be determined o Commercial & High Capacity various options starting at $59.95/month for 25Mbps/5Mbps asymmetrical, up to custom dedicated symmetrical gig speed bandwidth  Personnel at 38 headcount in year 5 with 30% benefits and 2.5 percent annual increase (see section VI.G Personnel Requirements)  Bandwidth requirements assumed – please see following graph 54 Year 0 – 5 Construction Phase Funding Base case modeling shows $130-150M will be needed (exact amount depends on contingency) to fund the operations, construction costs of the new network, capitalized interest, issuance costs, and other expenses associated with the new start up. A substantial portion of the funding will be in the form of bonds. The bonds will be issued in the form of an A Series and B Series at the beginning of the project. Series A is anticipated to be tax exempt at 4 percent and Series B non-tax exempt at 5 percent. Due to interest rate risk and possible delay in timing, the Series A is estimated at 4 percent (per guidance from finance council which includes 75 basis pts contingency) with Series B estimated at 1 percent more than the Series A to account for the taxability of the bond. Series A will be primarily used in the first 3 years to fund construction costs. Due to taxability of Series B, it can be used to fund working capital and operational needs, and additional construction beyond the 3 Amount Interest Rate Issuance Tax Series A $64M 4% Year 1 Tax Exempt Series B $58M 5% Year 1 Taxable 55 year time window. Total bond amount also includes issuance fees of 2 percent and 2 years of capitalized interest. Short term debt of approximately $9M (without contingency) is also assumed to be needed for non-capital expenditures and working capital provided that the City does not fund via other sources. The assumed short term interest rate is 3.25 percent and withdrawals are estimated to be taken as needed in the first 5 years. Short term debt will be paid back by fiber utility cash flows starting in year 6. Total debt amounts in excess of the $122M in bonds and $9M in short term debt have been discussed to account for unforeseen risk, possible construction overruns, higher than anticipated demand, and general uncertainty. The contingency amount is estimated at approximately 10%-15% for a total of $130M-$150M. Year 1: Construction expense will focus on priority start-up costs such as: 1) $5.6M Facility – 17,300 square-feet (sf) building with 8,800 sf office space and 9,500 sf shop 2) $2.7M Engineering - Network Design, backbone services and GPS mapping 3) $968,000 Fixed Network Equipment – Backbone electronics, core head end switch/router, test equipment, internet services back office platforms Debt Service Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year10 Year15 Bond Issuance Cost ($2,439,533) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Bond Series 1 Interest ($2,566,000) ($2,566,000) ($2,566,000) ($2,395,227) ($2,217,624) ($1,217,186) $0 Bond Series 2 Interest ($2,891,332) ($2,891,332) ($2,891,332) ($2,891,332) ($2,709,683) ($1,655,770) ($310,682) Short Term Interest $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 ($61,345) $0 Short Term Loan Principal Payment $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 ($1,887,537) $0 Bond Principal Payment - Series 1 ($4,269,322) ($4,440,095) ($5,402,055) ($6,572,426) Bond Principal Payment - Series 2 ($3,632,982) ($4,636,708) ($5,917,745) Total ($7,896,865) ($5,457,332) ($5,457,332) ($9,555,882) ($13,000,384) ($14,860,601) ($12,800,853) Capital Expenditures Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Network Construction $0 $19,857,262 $20,254,819 $20,661,335 $19,211,856 Electronics, Drop & Installation $967,500 $1,918,384 $3,528,487 $4,758,262 $6,325,355 Facility, Systems, Vehicles, Start up $6,390,000 $575,400 $384,908 $119,509 $24,000 Engineering, Design, Inspection $2,713,442 $250,217 $251,233 $252,273 $278,337 56 4) $790,000 Back Office Systems, Other Capital – Broadband billing system, network and fiber management systems Year 2 - 5: 1) Construction begins on the network in year two and finishes in year five with a total cost of $80M. Cost is a combination of plant miles installed (200 miles per year x $4000 per mile) and passing cost of $984 per meter and passing approximately 18,000 meters per year. 2) Network related capital and equipment is approximately $10.2M total in years 2-5 and includes ONTs and fiber drop materials. 3) $800,000 installation and service vehicles purchased include; service vans, bucket trucks and heavy service install rigs. Vehicles are replaced on a 6 year cycle and purchases begin in year two with ramp up costs continuing in years three and four. 4) Contract installation costs of $7M. Third party installers are hired on a temporary basis to assist with the surge of installs in years 2-5. Estimated at a flat rate of $200 per pre- install, and $250 per premise install. Revenue Year two is the first year of subscriber revenue. Although by the end of year 2 roughly 25 percent of the network has been installed, not all of those initial subscribers have received service for the full year. Network installation will continue at 25 percent per year through year 5, and estimated number of subscribers will increase by approximately 5000 per year through year 4 and another 6000 in year five. Approximately 55 percent of revenue will be generated by active residential internet premises. The number of homes passed per year increases by approximately 15,000/year from years 2-5. Subscriber take rate is estimated at 28.2 percent with the number of eligible premise passings Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Active Residential Premises 0 1,982 6,655 12,069 18,014 18,082 Total Revenue $0 $916,653 $4,879,311 $10,888,757 $18,211,765 $22,783,408 Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Residential Internet $0 $609,243 $3,193,006 $6,938,680 $11,176,790 $13,436,728 Commercial Internet $0 $69,093 $426,334 $1,091,238 $2,228,246 $2,982,146 High Capacity Services $0 $78,629 $435,359 $1,094,400 $2,099,183 $3,027,550 57 growing conservatively at 0.8 percent in years 2-5 and then 0.4 percent in years 6-15. It is estimated 56 percent of residential subscribers will choose the 50Mbps option at $50 per month and roughly 44 percent the 1Gbps option at $70 per month. Approximately 30 percent of revenue will come from commercial and high-capacity internet services split evenly between the two groups. Ramp up will be delayed in comparison to the residential segment per survey data and Uptown experience. It is generally known that commercial business tends to adopt slower, but ultimately the take rate will be higher. Commercial revenue derived from 45 percent take rate of approximately 8,000 premises assumed. Uptown experience has shown that the bulk of commercial subscribers take advantage of the lowest two tiers of service. The high-capacity market is highly varied and conservatively modeled at five percent of commercial premises. The remaining 15 percent of revenue is provided by residential and commercial phone service penetration of 8.4 percent. Phone revenue decreases both in total amount of revenue and in proportion to the internet services revenue over time. Residential phone pricing is $25 per month. Commercial phone pricing is $14 per line per month. Year 5+ Operations Phase Total revenue past year five will range between $23M to $26M per year with conservative growth estimated to level out at 0.6 percent for total revenue. All revenue streams are expected to experience moderate population growth impacts except voice service which will erode over the same time period. Expenses during operations will range from $6M in year 5 to $7.4M in year 15. Three main drivers of the operational expense are; overhead staffing at approximately 50 percent of expenses, internet backbone expenses at 22 percent of expense, and marketing/customer service at 18 percent of expenses. Operating margin fluctuates between 70 to 75 percent in years 5-15, but remains healthy. Operating income is therefore between $17 to 19M per year and is capable of servicing the debt payments that are expected to reach a maximum of $15M. Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Revenue Total $22,783,408 $23,777,179 $24,703,513 $25,202,613 $25,383,653 $25,548,804 $25,697,621 $25,848,046 $26,000,098 $26,153,798 Operating Expenses Total Operating Expense $4,826,271 $4,874,048 $5,217,769 $5,431,482 $5,305,943 $5,617,558 $5,817,263 $5,695,110 $5,977,152 $6,165,445 SG&A Total SG&A $1,055,856 $1,084,269 $1,112,355 $1,136,518 $1,157,853 $1,177,155 $1,196,501 $1,216,064 $1,235,838 $1,255,816 Total Expense $5,882,128 $5,958,318 $6,330,124 $6,567,999 $6,463,795 $6,794,714 $7,013,765 $6,911,174 $7,212,990 $7,421,261 Operating Income $16,901,280 $17,818,862 $18,373,390 $18,634,613 $18,919,857 $18,754,090 $18,683,857 $18,936,872 $18,787,108 $18,732,537 Operating Margin 74% 75% 74% 74% 75% 73% 73% 73% 72% 72% 58 Capital expenditures will continue past the construction phase. Subscriber churn will force continued investment in drop fiber, power and install equipment. Gradual growth and changes in GMA will also require marginal continued construction cost in the operational phase years. While most revenue and expense items are conservatively forecasted with moderate growth assumptions and fairly steady estimates in years 6-15, capital refresh is the exception with periodic vehicle replacement needed, a $1M ONT technology upgrade anticipated in year 7, and an electronics refresh of $6M expected in year 10. Net Cash Net Cash is the metric by which Uptown evaluates success of broadband initiatives. It is a form of payback metric that expresses the year that operations of the network has generated enough funds to pay off all the debt (although the network may choose not to pay off the debt at that time for any number of reasons). The general rule to follow is a network is successful if it is able to pay off all debt incurred by year 15, with the earlier payoff the better. The City retail model currently is expected to hit this milestone in year 14 with $5.9M net positive cash flow. This is not to be confused with operational cash flow as the network generates positive operational cash flow (operations revenue exceeds expenses) as early as year 3, however, that excess cash is mostly consumed by debt service until the bond balance has been paid. Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Total Capital $644,553 $1,521,603 $941,828 $937,307 $6,294,844 $611,662 $608,719 $605,751 $952,031 $955,997 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Total Net Cash ($118,476,228) ($107,400,732) ($95,833,624) ($82,659,423) ($68,696,784) ($59,251,335) ($43,811,068) ($27,851,939) ($11,027,557) $5,940,689 59 Financial Statements – Profit and Loss Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Revenue Residential Phone $0 $109,504 $517,542 $986,360 $1,346,796 Commercial Phone $0 $50,183 $307,070 $778,079 $1,360,749 Residential Internet $0 $609,243 $3,193,006 $6,938,680 $11,176,790 Commercial Internet $0 $69,093 $426,334 $1,091,238 $2,228,246 High Capacity Services $0 $78,629 $435,359 $1,094,400 $2,099,183 Other Retail Revenue $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total $0 $916,653 $4,879,311 $10,888,757 $18,211,765 Operating Expenses Internet Backbone/IPAddresses $0 $203,238 $400,342 $611,490 $914,321 Professional Services $30,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 Locates & Right of Way Fees $482,619 $266,269 $266,269 $266,269 $266,269 Staffing Expenses $968,500 $1,938,788 $2,560,898 $2,638,920 $2,884,263 Vehicle maintenance $0 $57,656 $130,015 $145,380 $149,015 Vendor Maintenance $0 $55,000 $55,000 $55,000 $55,000 Rents and Utilities $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 Total Operating Expense $1,501,119 $2,550,951 $3,442,524 $3,747,059 $4,298,867 SG&A Marketing Expenses $198,750 $399,938 $402,436 $404,997 $407,622 Customer Service Expenses $104,000 $479,700 $491,693 $503,985 $660,080 Billing Expenses $0 $4,365 $14,823 $27,078 $42,188 Total SG&A $302,750 $884,003 $908,951 $936,060 $1,109,890 Total Expense $1,803,869 $3,434,953 $4,351,475 $4,683,120 $5,408,758 Operating Income -$1,803,869 -$2,518,301 $527,836 $6,205,637 $12,803,007 Operating Margin NM -275% 11% 57% 70% 60 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Revenue Residential Phone $1,465,971 $1,411,407 $1,356,412 $1,300,985 $1,245,123 Commercial Phone $1,771,873 $1,999,637 $2,124,870 $2,145,539 $2,166,350 Residential Internet $13,436,728 $13,510,268 $13,584,171 $13,658,437 $13,733,070 Commercial Internet $2,982,146 $3,047,076 $3,113,284 $3,180,792 $3,249,625 High Capacity Services $3,027,550 $3,709,280 $4,410,780 $4,802,276 $4,874,310 Other Retail Revenue $99,139 $99,511 $113,997 $114,584 $115,174 Total $22,783,408 $23,777,179 $24,703,513 $25,202,613 $25,383,653 Operating Expenses Internet Backbone/IPAddresses $1,365,893 $1,335,942 $1,599,992 $1,732,042 $1,612,092 Professional Services $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 Locates & Right of Way Fees $266,269 $266,269 $266,269 $266,269 $266,269 Staffing Expenses $2,956,370 $3,030,279 $3,106,036 $3,183,687 $3,173,985 Vehicle maintenance $152,740 $156,559 $160,473 $164,484 $168,597 Vendor Maintenance $55,000 $55,000 $55,000 $55,000 $55,000 Rents and Utilities $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 Total Operating Expense $4,826,271 $4,874,048 $5,217,769 $5,431,482 $5,305,943 SG&A Marketing Expenses $338,146 $350,842 $362,932 $370,820 $375,601 Customer Service Expenses $676,582 $693,497 $710,834 $728,605 $746,820 Billing Expenses $41,128 $39,931 $38,589 $37,092 $35,432 Total SG&A $1,055,856 $1,084,269 $1,112,355 $1,136,518 $1,157,853 Total Expense $5,882,128 $5,958,318 $6,330,124 $6,567,999 $6,463,795 Operating Income $16,901,280 $17,818,862 $18,373,390 $18,634,613 $18,919,857 Operating Margin 74% 75% 74% 74% 75% 61 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Revenue Residential Phone $1,188,824 $1,132,085 $1,074,904 $1,017,278 $959,205 Commercial Phone $2,181,488 $2,190,778 $2,199,857 $2,208,715 $2,217,344 Residential Internet $13,805,086 $13,874,464 $13,944,168 $14,014,200 $14,084,562 Commercial Internet $3,310,211 $3,362,287 $3,415,181 $3,468,905 $3,523,472 High Capacity Services $4,947,425 $5,021,636 $5,096,961 $5,173,415 $5,251,016 Other Retail Revenue $115,770 $116,370 $116,975 $117,585 $118,199 Total $25,548,804 $25,697,621 $25,848,046 $26,000,098 $26,153,798 Operating Expenses Internet Backbone/IPAddresses $1,840,143 $1,954,195 $1,744,247 $1,936,299 $2,032,352 Professional Services $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 Locates & Right of Way Fees $266,269 $266,269 $266,269 $266,269 $266,269 Staffing Expenses $3,253,335 $3,334,668 $3,418,035 $3,503,486 $3,591,073 Vehicle maintenance $172,811 $177,132 $181,560 $186,099 $190,751 Vendor Maintenance $55,000 $55,000 $55,000 $55,000 $55,000 Rents and Utilities $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 Total Operating Expense $5,617,558 $5,817,263 $5,695,110 $5,977,152 $6,165,445 SG&A Marketing Expenses $380,296 $384,905 $389,607 $394,406 $399,303 Customer Service Expenses $765,491 $784,628 $804,244 $824,350 $844,958 Billing Expenses $31,369 $26,969 $22,213 $17,082 $11,555 Total SG&A $1,177,155 $1,196,501 $1,216,064 $1,235,838 $1,255,816 Total Expense $6,794,714 $7,013,765 $6,911,174 $7,212,990 $7,421,261 Operating Income $18,754,090 $18,683,857 $18,936,872 $18,787,108 $18,732,537 Operating Margin 73% 73% 73% 72% 72% 62 Sensitivity The Uptown model utilizes over 450 variables to mimic the City fiber network and generate 15 years of proforma financial activity. While all variables are important and can affect the City broadband simulation, not all variables are within the City’s control, some variables are dictated by market factors, or still other variables may have very little significant impact on total results. In the end, only a few material variables drive the model results, and even fewer may be within the City management’s control. The example tornado graph above indicates that three core variables in particular heavily influence the model’s results: 1) Passing cost 2) Residential internet pricing 3) Take rate While other factors will influence the end result, it would take a combination of other issues to affect the model as much as any one of these 3 core variables. 63 Scenarios A number of scenarios (adjusted variables, or combination or variables) were tested to determine impact of possible future states. Take Rate reduction - Penetration reduced to 22.5 percent Net Cash – turns positive in year 16 Revenue – on-going operations generate $19M-$20M/year 5 year Capital cost - reduced slightly to $106.5M due to fewer subscriber installs Bonds - corresponding bond amounts would decrease to $118M Take Rate increase - Penetration increased to 45 percent Net Cash – turns positive in year 13 with $16M Revenue – on-going operations generate $27M-$30M/year 5 year Capital cost – increases slightly over $5M to $115M with high activity levels Bonds – resulting borrowing would increase to $128M Capital expenses are 15 percent higher than forecast Net Cash - turns positive at end of year 16, beginning of year 17 Revenue – remains between $20-24M/year 5 year Capital cost – calculates to $126M Bonds – adjusts total to $138M Active E implementation vs GPON Net Cash – turns positive in late year 17 Revenue - remains between $20-24M/year 5 year Capital cost – approximately $130M Bonds - $142M Active E implementation – and- 45 percent take rate Net Cash – positive in year 14 Revenue - on-going operations generate $27M-$30M/year Capital cost - approximately $135M Bonds - $149M Mitigation and Risk Scenario planning is useful to give management insight into potential outcomes; however, risk mitigation should be built into the business operations of the network to properly mitigate the potential for heavy losses. It must be acknowledged that these strategies have varying levels of success, and some may not be feasible in a network situation: 64 1) Pilot testing and sequential spending – move forward with large expenses only after smaller tests have proved successful 2) Timing – extension of construction timing may help financials as the network generates sufficient cash to fund growth, if given enough time 3) Variable vs. Fixed cost structure – variable cost structure can be a safer business model in which expenses are only incurred after revenue is assured, but it usually employs outsourced activities, longer lead time for customers, and potential loss of margin However, all business startups incur risk, and not all risks can be mitigated. Risks associated with the municipal retail business plan include, but are not limited to: competition, startup, governance, technology and financial risk. If the City Retail FTTP network is successful, only households that subscribe for the service will pay for the network. However, if the City Retail FTTP network were to fail, other revenue sources would need to absorb the debt originally secured by the network. To cover the full $130 - $150M debt to build the City Retail FTTP network, a monthly fee estimated at $17 per month would need to be charged to each household. The $17 per month is equivalent to $2,420 per household. 65 IX. Opportunities and Threats A number of potential opportunities and threats exist within this type of venture. The following highlight some of the possibilities. Opportunities: 1) Possible additional revenue streams a. Lease of dark fiber b. Over the top internet service provider if open access 2) Market share greater than assumed a. Additional capital costs required but additional cash flow could payback debt faster b. Higher satisfaction, confidence in City brand and citizen confidence Threats: 1) Marketing reaction of large incumbents a. Aggressive pricing b. Signing up multiple dwelling units with multi-year revenue sharing agreements with property owners c. Locking up customers during planning year with multi-year contracts at discounted prices 2) Possible legislative/political changes sponsored by large incumbents a. Restrict municipality’s ability to add telecom into L&P Utility forcing need to create 5th utility b. Impact on financing could force General Obligation debt vs. lower interest revenue bonds c. Change in municipality’s ability to provide retail internet service as occurred in Utah this forced a Wholesale model alternative that ultimately failed to generate enough revenue to support debt service 3) Governance a. City’s ability to modify governance and run a municipal broadband utility as a private enterprise would be run. i. Private executive sessions to discuss strategy, pricing, marketing competitive reactions ii. Maintain a level playing field with competition by not adding social costs to the cost structure – i.e. low income rate subsidies should be borne by the municipality and not by the broadband utility 66 4) Business Risk a. Take rate of less than assumed by year five will impact ability of the broadband utility to support debt requirements (see Scenarios section VIII.G) b. Construction cost greater than expected (see Scenarios section VIII.G) c. Price reductions if needed to meet competition given price elasticity identified in survey results d. Rate risk in financing e. Municipal organization needs to develop expertise and experience in staff and culture to successfully compete with incumbents – business plan and execution management 67 X. Conclusion In conclusion, it has been established that the retail model can be a robust business model. It can withstand various typical business setbacks such as construction overruns and small interest rate increases. It can also be financially feasible in the face of impending technological change such as a post-DOCSIS 3.1 environment. However, there are significant threats that are harder to foresee and forecast. These types of threats are out of the City’s control to mitigate, such as: technological change, political will and competitive response. While the City does enjoy strong citizen support, and a very positive brand image, the reality is that $130M-$150M will be at risk. It is not likely that under even the worst of scenarios that the City would lose all of the investment with proper risk mitigation. Implementation steps and milestones could be constructed such that unfavorable environmental effects would be minimized. However, even without adverse conditions, it will take 12-15 years of successful operations to pay back all of the bond amounts with operational revenue, and more than $110M will be spent constructing an asset that has the potential to be stranded. Both scenarios are real risks that must be considered before going forward. 68 XI. Appendix XI.A. Peer Cities BROADBAND July 11 2017 ATTACHMENT 4 Overall Policy Objectives Strategic Objective 3.9 • Encourage the development of reliable, high speed internet services throughout the community Secondary Factors • Network reaching all residents of Fort Collins GMA • Timely implementation requires base network build <5 years • Competitive market pricing • Outstanding customer service 2 May 9th Work Session 3 Third Party Option Retail Option • RFP Issued May 30th • Responses due July 5th • Resource Discussion • Finalize high level Business Plan • Ballot Language in process RFP Update 4 • RFP Issued May 30, 2017 • Scope: •3rd Party Partner • Complimentary skills & expertise • Internet service experience • Share risk • Next steps • Evaluate proposals and develop short list • Initial interviews with short list • Determine future direction & discussion • Responses received July 5th • 11 responses received. • Allo Communication •Axia • CenturyLink • Comcast • Foresite Group • Fujitsu Network Communications • Iwire365 •Kiewit • LightSpeed Connection • Wyyerd • Zayo Group Municipal Broadband Implementation Planning 5  Consulting resources on board June 29th - Work Scope Includes: • Support RFP response evaluation & discussion • Support ballot questions and materials • Support development of Launch Plan • Open Access vs. Proprietary system, ActiveE vs. GPON, Video or not • RFP requirements & details for design, construction, QC, • New billing system business requirements • Business process requirements, definition & appropriate integration • Organizational plans – staffing, facilities, equipment • Marketing & Sales plan • Refine cash flow plan by quarter High Level Business Plan Table of Contents I. Executive Summary II. Mission III. Broadband Market Profile IV. Fort Collins Customer Profile V. Competitive Environment VI. Operating Plan VII. Network Architecture VIII. Financial Model IX. Opportunities and Threats X. Conclusion XI. Appendix 6 Business Plan Modified Assumptions 7 Modified Assumptions: • Pricing Update - $70 for 1 Gbps / $50 for 50 Mbps per month • New survey to confirm take rates • Updated take rate - 28.2% • Financing Update – 1 issue with 2 series vs. 2 issues • Capital variation • 10% increase in take rate adds $4M to capital requirements • ActiveE vs. GPON adds $12M, Video adds $5M-$7M Impact • Capital requirements – range $130M to $150M • Small changes in Cashflow & Payback timeframe Pricing / Take Rate 8 I Would Switch to Comcast I Would Switch to Ft Collins I Would Retain My Current Service Don't Know 3% 73% 19% 6% 17% 47% 23% 14% “If these services were available to your home, and offer the same speed, which of the following statements best describes your likelihood to switch?” Comcast $110/City $70 Both $70 Demand for 1G grows with price advantage Investment 9 $122M Bonds I. $80M = Network Construction II. $29M = Equipment, Facility, Install, Engineering III.$13M = Bond issuance cost, capitalized interest $9M Working Capital $131M Total Investment + External borrowing of $130M - $150M. Total investment increases if take rate exceeds 28.2% or add video Contingency funds if: Active E installation, take rate increases, video added, costs increase Base Case Results – CASH FLOW 10 ($40) ($20) $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Earnings Before Taxes and Depreciation Capital Spending Cash Flow $M Base Case Results – PAYBACK 11 ($150) ($100) ($50) $0 $50 $100 $150 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Cash Reserves Long Term Debt Short Term Debt Total Net Cash $M Debt Capacity • Implications to Fort Collins L&P Utilities if Revenue Bonds  Current L&P Capital Improvement Plan and Long Term Financial Plan indicate adequate debt capacity exists within L&P to support bond  Assumes L&P needs can be met with rate adjustments and not debt  Opportunity Cost – if L&P needed access to capital during the first 5 years • Implication to City of Fort Collins Bond Rating if GO Bonds  Financial Advisor assessment in 2015 indicated • Capacity range varies based on the type of debt and multiple factors • Without new revenue sources – range is $75M to $100M • With new revenue sources – range if $125M to $150M  Near term debt requirements of $45M -parking garage, police training, I25 12 Retail Model STRENGTHS & RISKS STRENGTHS • City Brand & Customer Service • Control of construction • Control customer service • Strong local support 13 RISKS • Competition - incumbents • Business – standing up new business • Political - legislative changes • Governance – competitive market • Technology – the Unknown • Financial – worst case: - $16 to $17 mo per L&P account Retail Model Risk Mitigation Option 14 Implement a fee or a tax that generates a guaranteed revenue stream Fee = $16 mo per account Tax = .40% Rational: • Revenue covers debt service • Reduces competitive & market share risk • Less dependent on take rate • Could offer service @ $30 - $35 mo • Changes the complexion of the ballot ? • Adds a cost to a somewhat emotional decision Implications: • Treats Broadband as a Utility infrastructure • Everyone pays a portion for infrastructure • Similar to stormwater • Change from “users will pay for system” • Significant cost per account • Potential negative impacts on other City priorities 15 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Nov Election Launch Planning Bonds Issued Network Design Internal Systems & Process Network Construction First Customer Municipal Broadband Macro Timeline Last Customer Municipal Broadband Near Term Timeline 16 Potential Ballot Charter Amendment: July 11 Council Work Session Aug 8 1st Reading; Ballot Language Aug 15 2nd Reading Ballot Language Silent Period Nov 7 Election May 9 Council Work Session Internet Services Launch If voter Approval Detailed Business / Launch Planning Option 1 • Broadband within existing L&P enterprise • Authorization for L&P revenue bonds to support telecommunications • Modified Governance Option 2 • Broadband within existing L&P enterprise or create 5th utility • Authorization for L&P revenue bonds to support OR authorization of general obligation bonds to support 5th utility • Modified Governance Ballot Question: Ballot Question Development For Illustration & Discussion Purposes • Ask voters to change the Charter to expand and include telecom (broadband) services within L&P Enterprise • Required in the event the City provides telecom service directly or in partnership. • Allows the L&P to partner with a 3rd Party and allows L&P the ability to provide telecom service if a third party option is pursued and fails • Although bond issuance does not require a vote, including a question on debt ensures voters are aware of the investment/cost risk to provide telecom infrastructure • Allows Council to go into executive session and the ability to delegate some decision making to a governing board or the City Manager • Hear matters that if public, would jeopardize financial feasibility • No decisions can be made in an executive session 17 Ballot Question Recommendation 18 Recommendation: Option 1 Rational: • Leverage L&P debt capacity • Uncertainty on need for a 5th utility • More community discussion required for GO bonds Draft Ballot Question For Illustration & Discussion Purposes 19 Shall Article XII of the Charter of the City of Fort Collins, pertaining to municipal public utilities, be amended to add a new section authorizing City Council, by ordinance and without a vote of the electors, to authorize the City’s electric utility to acquire, construct, provide, fund and contract for telecommunication facilities and services within and outside the City’s territorial limits, whether directly or in whole or part through one or more third-party providers, to include, without limitation, the transmission of Internet data, voice and video, and to authorize the Council, in exercising this authority, to: (1) issue revenue and refunding securities and other debt obligations as authorized in the Charter, but in a cumulative total principal amount not to exceed $150,000,0000; (2) set the rates, fees and charges for these facilities and services subject to the same limitations in the Charter for setting the rates, fees and charges for other City utilities; (3) go into executive session to consider matters pertaining to issues of competition in providing these facilities and services to include, without limitation, matters subject to negotiation, strategic planning, pricing, sales and marketing, development phasing and any other matter allowed under Colorado law; (4) establish a Council-appointed board or commission and delegate to it by ordinance, in whole or part, the Council’s governing authority and powers granted under this new Charter section, but not the power to issue securities; and (5) delegate to the City Manager by ordinance, in whole or part, its authority to set the rates, fees and charges for telecommunication facilities and services? ______Yes/For ______No/Against 20 Council Discussion 1. Does Council have desire to further explore a fee/tax to reduce risk 2. Does Council support bringing a ballot question forward in November ? a. If so, Option 1 or Option 2 ? 3. Does Council prefer messaging the ballot question as: a. Question focused on Municipal Retail Option only ? b. Question that allows 3rd Party or Municipal Retail alternatives ? BACKUP 21 Ballot Question For Illustration & Discussion Purposes 22 Telecommunications within L&P Enterprise – Option 1 The Council may, by ordinance and without a vote of the electors, acquire, construct, provide, fund and contract for telecommunication facilities and services within and outside the City’s territorial limits through and as part of the City’s electric utility to include, without limitation, telecommunication facilities and services providing for the transmission of Internet data, voice and video Telecommunications within new 5th Utility – Option 2 Same as above with the addition of: Alternatively, the Council may create by ordinance and without a vote of the electors a telecommunication utility to exercise these power for furnishing such telecommunication facilities and services within and outside the City’s territorial limits. If the Council creates a new telecommunication utility, it may also establish that utility as an enterprise of the City in the same manner, with the same powers ad subject to the same requirements and limitations established under Section 19.3(b) of Article V of this Charter for the City’s other enterprises. Ballot Question For Illustration & Discussion Purposes 23 Authorization of L&P revenue bonds up to $150M – Option 1 The Council, acting as the board of the electric utility enterprise, shall have the power to issue revenue and refunding securities as authorized in Sections 19.3 and 19.4 of Article V of this Charter to fund the provision of the telecommunication facilities and services authorized in this section Authorization of GO bonds up to $150M – Option 2 Same as above with the addition of: The board of the telecommunications utility enterprise shall also have the power to issue general obligation securities as authorized in Section 19.2 of Article V of this Charter to fund the provision of the telecommunication facilities and services authorized in this Section Ballot Question For Illustration & Discussion Purposes 24 Executive sessions & delegation – Both Options ….the Council, and any board or commission established under subsection (e) below, may go into executive session to consider matters pertaining to issues of competition in providing the telecommunication facilities and services authorized in this Section, which shall include, without limitation, matters subject to negotiation, strategic planning, pricing, sales and marketing, development phasing and any other matter allowed under Colorado law. ….the Council may, by ordinance, establish a Council-appointed board or commission and delegate to it, in whole or part, the Council’s governing authority and powers granted under this Section…. ….the Council may also delegate by ordinance to the City Manager, in whole o part, its authority in subsection (c) above to set the rates, fees and charges for furnishing telecommunication facilities and services. Survey Objective & Methodology 25 Objective: Evaluate residential pricing changes made by both Comcast and the City since the August 2016 Uptown Feasibility Study on FTTP pro forma  Impact to City residential Internet penetration level  Impact to City 1G dispersion (% of subs taking 1G versus 50M tier) Sample Design: Total sample size of 400 respondents, separated into two cells (n=200 each) to evaluate Comcast 1G pricing at either $70 or $110  Cell A: 200 tested at Comcast 1G Internet for $70/month  Cell B: 200 tested at Comcast 1G Internet for $110/month Pricing Metric 2016 2017 Financial Impact on City Pro Forma Comcast 1G 3 Year Contract $70/mo. $110/mo. Increases City FTTP penetration potential City Tier 1 (50M) $40/mo. $50/mo. Decreases City FTTP penetration potential City Tier 2 (1G) Charter Member $50/mo. ($10 Buy-up) $70/mo. ($20 Buy-up) Decreases City 1G tier dispersion City Take Rate by Market Scenario 26 Across three (3) residential surveys, Uptown has identified the expected City take rates for residential Internet service depending upon both Comcast and City pricing… Study conducted by Uptown Services, LLC Source Scenario Comcast Offering City Offering City Penetration Outcome 2016 Survey n=400 Pre-DOCSIS3.1 1G Not Offered 50M: $40/mo. 1G: $50/mo.* 38.8% 2016 Survey n=100 Post-DOCSIS3.1 1G: $70/mo.** 30.2% 2017 Survey (Cell A) n=200 50M: $50/mo. 1G: $70/mo.* 28.2% 2017 Survey (Cell B) n=200 1G: $110/mo.** 50M: $50/mo. 1G: $70/mo.* 30.4% 3rd Party Model STRENGTHS & RISKS STRENGTHS • Experience - fiber design and build • Experience as an ISP • Financial Partner & Resources • Better Technology 27 Viable Alternative – Experience & Financial Resources RISKS • Loss of Control - Customer service and technology -Pricing • Partner Change of Control • Time – delay if Partner not successful Sensitivity 28 Prices reflect subscription to Internet service at non-promotional rate as of March 2016. *Not available in all areas of Fort Collins The pricing above reflects published prices as of March 2016. Pricing is very dynamic within the market and can change frequently. Bundled services that include video and phone and additional charges are also utilized, making it difficult to develop price-to-price comparisons. Furthermore, citizen satisfaction with their DSL and cable modem broadband service is among the lowest of the 24 markets surveyed by the broadband consultant group Uptown Services.