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Home My WebLink AboutCOUNCIL - AGENDA ITEM - 10/24/2017 - REALIGNED LEMAY AND SUNIGA-THE EXISTING LEMAY AVENDATE: STAFF: October 24, 2017 Timothy Kemp, Civil Engineer III Chad Crager, Director of Infrastructure Services WORK SESSION ITEM City Council SUBJECT FOR DISCUSSION Realigned Lemay and Suniga-the existing Lemay Avenue/Vine Drive Intersection and the realigned Lemay Avenue/Suniga Road Intersection. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this item is to update Council of the project status for realigned Lemay Avenue and Suniga Road; and more specifically to present information regarding:  Railroad switching yard relocation  Bridge versus at-grade solutions  Project funding  Collaboration with the Northeast College Corridor Outfall (NECCO) project  Public outreach Staff has been working on addressing Council questions over the past 14 months, in response to Council feedback from the August 23, 2016 Work Session. The Lemay Avenue realignment and intersection improvements have been prioritized as the City’s #1 Transportation Capital Improvement Project. The improvements will construct a new roadway (realigned Lemay) from Lincoln Avenue to Conifer Street, and a new intersection slightly northeast of the existing Vine Drive and Lemay Avenue intersection. The City has utilized an extensive planning process over the past 25 years to plan for the proposed right-of-way and utility corridor alignments, regional stormwater improvements, and multi-modal connectivity. GENERAL DIRECTION SOUGHT AND SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED 1. What feedback does Council have on the staff recommendation for a bridge over the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railway and Vine Drive? 2. Does Council support a November, 2017 $2M appropriation of Transportation Capital Expansion Fee (TCEF) reserves to fund continued right-of-way acquisition and construction opportunities in 2018? BACKGROUND / DISCUSSION The Lemay Avenue realignment and grade separation has been on the City’s Master Street Plan for nearly 30 years and is a critical infrastructure improvement needed to address existing transportation deficiencies and neighborhood livability issues. The existing intersection operations continue to degrade which has led to increased safety, congestion, and access problems for: local residents, BNSF and GWR railways, emergency services, and the travelling public. Project Goals  Neighborhood Livability - Complete critical transportation improvements that will enhance connectivity for local neighborhoods to employment, schools, goods and services. Existing residents suffer from the constraints of congestion on a daily basis.  Safety and Multi-Modal Connectivity - Foster a safe, connected, resilient and accessible system for all modes of travel to key activity centers, access to high frequency transit service, and bicycle and pedestrian facilities. October 24, 2017 Page 2  Congestion Relief - Construction of the improvements will reduce congestion along existing roadways and the BNSF rail corridor, which in turn helps improve railway switching operations and the ability to move goods and services efficiently throughout northeast Fort Collins.  Phased Implementation -The project construction will be phased to address existing operational and connectivity issues now, and expandable in the future as subsequent development adds capacity to the transportation system. Realigned Lemay will be built as a 4-lane road at the southern end near Lincoln Avenue, and as 2-lane road at the northern end near Conifer Street. The bridge may be initially constructed 4-lanes wide to accommodate the future capacity. Unlike most railroad crossings within Fort Collins, the existing Vine and Lemay intersection is greatly impacted due to the proximity of the BNSF and GWR switching yard along Vine Drive. Additionally, the existing intersection is severely congested with limited options to expand through lanes or turn capacity due to the proximity to houses and driveways. The project will include multi-modal and landscape improvements on existing Lemay (Ninth Street), after this section of roadway is downgraded to a local street. Potential for Relocation of the Switching Yard City staff met with BNSF staff 5 times between December 2016 and May 2017 to discuss logistics, cost, and master plan options. The existing switching yard consists of one mainline track and 5 siding tracks between Lemay Avenue and Timberline Road. The project team worked with BNSF staff to estimate the cost of a concept plan for a switching yard in a new location that is similar to what BNSF and GWR currently have for switching infrastructure:  An independent cost estimate of approximately $40M was generated as a result of our concept plans, the estimate was reviewed and consented to by BNSF staff  The switching yard relocation is a “net-neutral” for BNSF, meaning it is of no economic benefit to BNSF to move the switching yard  The entire cost of relocation would be the responsibility of the City  Staff is not recommending this as a near-term solution Realigned Lemay Avenue as a Bridge or At-Grade solution at the BNSF crossing Staff is recommending the Bridge alternative based upon:  Multiple discussions and on-site meetings with BNSF and Public Utilities Commission (PUC) staff  Project Cost - the total project budget for both options is $22M in 2017 dollars o Further investigation and coordination with BNSF and PUC staff has led to a slightly lower cost for the bridge alternative and a substantially higher cost for the at-grade alternative since the last Council Work Session  Mobility and connectivity for local neighborhoods because the existing Vine Drive and Lemay Avenue intersection can remain open, at-grade, to all travel modes  Significant emissions reductions, improved travel time reliability, and improved emergency services response time Project Funding Table A is a summary of current project funding and identifies a need of $10M in 2017 dollars. Table B is a summary of an assumed inflation of 3.5% per year between the 2017 estimated project cost and 2021 estimated project cost. October 24, 2017 Page 3 TABLE A - Project Funding Total Project Cost $22M* BFO Offers (already appropriated) $2M TCEF Contribution $10M** Additional Funding Needed $10M * 2017 Dollars ** $10M includes $2M of future Developer repays / contributions from adjacent properties TABLE B - Assumed Project Inflation Year over Year Construction Year Inflation of 3.5% per Year*** Project Cost 2017 $22,000,000 2018 $770,000 $22,770,000 2019 $796,950 $23,566,950 2020 $824,843 $24,391,793 2021 $853,713 $25,245,506 *** Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.5% for 12 months, ending January, 2017 Staff is currently exploring several funding options for the $10M current funding gap. The options will be reviewed, along with overall project plans, at the November 20 Council Finance Committee meeting:  “Pay as we go” option, set aside $2M - $4M of one-time money each year as available over several years and phase the construction until the $10M target is achieved  “Debt financing” option, issue Certificates of Participation (COP’s) utilizing a City asset, similar to the way the recent downtown parking garage was funded. This option would require approximately $770k of new debt cost for 20 years.  “Combination” option, some combination of the above two options  Staff foresees substantial challenges with implementing and maintaining a tolling system for realigned Lemay Avenue. The evaluation conducted with our tolling consultant shows that tolling is not feasible for the following reasons: o Lemay is a small project compared to other projects researched across the country. The fixed cost of tolling raises the overall project cost substantially. o Toll collection costs rise significantly if license plate photo and bill collection is a large percentage of tolls. o Anticipated that a toll on Lemay will encourage traffic diversions to Timberline and North College with the effect of increasing trip length and diminishing congestion relief benefits o A fairness and equity issue where residents / businesses on Lemay would be charged when all other similar arterials in Fort Collins are not tolled Opportunity for Partnering and Cost Saving Staff recommends moving forward with an early construction phase in the spring 2018 through a partnership with the Utilities Department:  The NECCO Stormwater Master Plan project is an $8M Utilities infrastructure investment in the Suniga Road and realigned Lemay area. The project began construction in 2017 and the final phase will be constructed in 2018. Project goals include: o Regional detention, floodplain mitigation, and water quality improvements o NECCO follows the Suniga Road right-of-way from Redwood Street to realigned Lemay Avenue  The early construction phase along realigned Lemay will include: o Installation of underground concrete box culverts, combined with the Utilities final phase of the NECCO Stormwater Master Plan implementation October 24, 2017 Page 4 o Placement of 50,000 cubic yards (CY) (of the total 170,000 CY needed) of fill material in the realigned Lemay right-of-way (ROW), for the future construction of a bridge over Vine and the railroad, using material generated from the NECCO pond and outfall channel. See exhibit below. o Early construction cost savings of $700,000 comes from the difference between the Vine/Lemay Engineer’s Estimate and the negotiated pricing from the Utilities contract for the NECCO project for the following items:  Dirt Placement - $11/CY savings = $550,000  The dirt placed will be approximately 100 feet away from a roadway and will be seeded for both erosion control and aesthetic purposes  Box Culverts - project savings = $150,000 (due to the contractor already being on-site and having additional lead time to fabricate the boxes) o The placement of the concrete box culverts will allow us to include this work under the Utilities Letter of Map Revision (LOMR) for the re-mapping of the floodplain, which is a time and resource saving measure o This work is required for the project regardless of timing and doing this work in 2018 will save the project future costs and shorten the future schedule Outreach and Public Engagement Over the past 20 months staff has given a number of formal presentations and provided project information at City sponsored events; designed to encourage public participation and collect feedback. Staff is actively addressing community questions and working with nearby residents, business owners, landowners, and proposed development projects. Summary of Public Engagement to Date  February 2016 - Public Open House at Streets Facility - 122 people signed in for the event  February 2016 - Presentation to the Transportation Board  May 2016 - Presentation to the Futures Committee  May 2016 - Presentation to the Council Finance Committee  August 2016 - Lincoln Neighborhood Ice Cream Social  August 2016 - Council Work Session  November 2016 - Presentation to Alta Vista residents  September 2017 - Open House event for Alta Vista, Andersonville, and Buckingham residents  Project website is available at: <http://www.fcgov.com/engineering/vine-lemay.php> <https://www.fcgov.com/engineering/vine-lemay.php> Next Steps Staff has the following items planned for the remainder of 2017 and early 2018:  Continued public outreach and engagement with stakeholders o Broaden the discussion to include the North Fort Collins Business Association, City boards and commissions, etc.  Move from a 30% project design to a 60% project design o To include a detailed noise and lighting analysis with mitigation recommendations  Finalize the needed right-of-way for realigned Lemay Avenue, south of Vine Drive; and the Buckingham Street extension from Ninth Street to realigned Lemay Avenue  $2M TCEF appropriation in November 2017 for opportunities to: o Allocate $1.4M toward:  Right-of-way purchases for realigned Lemay Avenue, south of Vine Drive; and the Buckingham Street extension from Ninth Street to realigned Lemay (expected cost of $350k)  Dirt placement partnering with Utilities ($500k)  Box Culvert partnering with Utilities ($550k) October 24, 2017 Page 5 o Staff also recommends an additional $600k in appropriations in the event of similar coordination opportunities for Vine / Lemay cost savings in the future  The $2M TCEF appropriation above will lower the remaining TCEF available funds to $8M ATTACHMENTS 1. Location Map (PDF) 2. Open House Summary (PDF) 3. Conceptual Toll Feasibility Study memo (PDF) 4. Powerpoint presentation (PDF) ROYVAL AS OWNER) (ASSESSOR SHOWS REC. NO. 89036400 BUSINESS CENTER LTD. FORT COLLINS FILINGS FIRST AND SECOND SAN CRISTO P.U.D REC. NO. 88025752 PER QUIT CLAIM DEED, CITY OF FORT COLLINS 20100044097 SALE DEED, REC. NO. PER BARGAIN AND TONIA NIFOROS NO. 87044407 WARRANTY DEED, REC. BROKERAGE, INC. PER KEIL INVESTMENT NO. 20140019593 WARRANTY DEED, REC. PER SPECIAL STERLING CRANE LLC 20120080055 DEED, REC. NO. SPECIAL WARRANTY L. GRAHAM PER JOHN C. AND GINGER COTTAGES SUBDIVISION PROPOSED CAPSTONE 20000015805 DEED, REC. NO. SPECIAL WARRANTY LEE ROYVAL PER NORMAN L. AND DIANA REC. NO. 97065351 PER WARRANTY DEED, CITY OF FORT COLLINS 10123 4948.58 MH 200+00 205+00 210+00 215+00 220+00 225+00 226+00 PI 200+00.00 PI 226+00.00 100+00 1 05 + 00 11 0 + 00 111 1 Vine/Lemay/BNSF Project Public Meeting Summary DRAFT Legacy Church, September 600 9th 5-Street, 7 PM 28, Fort 2017 Collins, Co 80524 vicinity, The at Meeting The the meeting City Legacy Next of Overview: Ft. was Church. Door Collins announced announcements, hosted Twenty-a through four public members flyers meeting a postcard distributed of on the mailer September public to to residents signed residents 28, 2017 in and to in from the the at the meeting. project 5-Legacy 7 PM, The Church, • • • • • boards Project Screening Alternatives: Phase Community and covered through 1 Overview Project Process Feedback the Realigned Vida Renderings following Sana on At-organization 9th Grade topics: of Street 2-Lane and (Buckingham representatives. Bridge Bridge Options to new Suniga) – This board requested feedback (through sticky notes attached to the board) from the The • • meeting Ways community Anticipated to boards Provide Cost, are Comments attached Funding, to Schedule this meeting summary. The one-Public to the meeting on-attendees. Comments one discussions was held Received: as with an open City house staff. Written style for comment the public sheets to provide were also input available through Thoughts and Concerns about the design for a realignment of Lemay Avenue with a bridge over the railroad tracks and Vine Drive • • • • • • Standing bike/planned behind that Clogged I Happy Move Make would needs ped the it existing my (love ditch north the water bridge option to neighborhood realignment) it get (if and along Vine/is there 4 for there an lanes east turning issue homes Lemay was now. of from (Vine/further along San an that left intersection the overpass Cristo) Lemay onto back Lemay start. east existing to that will The deviated the is would remaining. increase traffic future Vine (capture maybe volume, realignment) from flow Would existing the dramatically. most with wrong like of all Lemay the a that word) better traffic is ATTACHMENT 2 Vine/Lemay/BNSF Project Public Meeting: September 28, 2017 2 Existing • • • I purpose Depends Will or don’t 9th a “ghetto” it Street make understand of on closing how our (under existing neighborhood high part why a bridge? the Lemay of Vine bridge the will (existing Avenue) worst (Via will no Lopez) longer fear!be. road? will ) be look have It a makes through like much we no live sense. street. lower in the traffic What “projects” is the volumes once the bridge is built. What improvements would you like to see made to 9th Street? • • • • • • Need Better better None horn’s Sidewalks. thoroughfare to Put Sidewalks, put run the into noise – way around. bike/bell no sidewalk Lincoln sidewalks Plant lighting, to and pedestrian -turn it visual Corridor) is some on a left cross west slow – barriers from trees. no lanes. side walks, neighborhood bike 9th Make Repave of lanes at to plants, Lemay, the existing this on San the a 9th. flowers, south that street Christo existing Vine. Kill wants of that old trees Buckingham neighborhood. bike/Lemay. dog is (no same ped walkers longer Silence path efforts back considered and and the in. that children have train were a a Other Comments • • • • • Exit Traffic Landscaped Parking Very We Suniga need to concerned get calming (see on a out raised/Lemay? past berm, of measures about City neighborhood-landscaped not On Plans)traffic swale, streets needed . Also calming between berm facility -need – on Preferred to future on side status- Alta mitigate the Vista Suniga proposed – City move noise and to look Suniga Suniga and Suniga into pollution farther by this. Alta from north. Vista. • • • • • • • • Maybe Vine I When permanent Why When(“When since Distance How Is hate the to is will I’ve noise the will sic) add the will get from drainage lived idea the is nature to some this barrier better the Timberline short the of here. begin? street a roundabouts trail fence or soccer be was extension J worse? contained? “Anxious not at Thank put line? and the field shown in (south then Response: to you” of dominating to and prevent 10th discourage on Mulberry. end patiently Street Street of Fort access. 10th the Park connect trucks Collins waiting Park Street? Conceptual? that Area is to for looking Duff? already SW the of It past for looks Vine/use berms, 18 existing like Lemay. years trees a for noise buffers) • No dedicated dog park? Thank you for coming! ¡Gracias por venir! Vine/Lemay/BNSF Neighborhood Meeting Vine / Lemay / Reunión Vecinal de BNSF September 28th, 2017 28 de septiembre de 2017 Goals • Relieve congestion • Improve safety and access • Enhance neighborhood livability • Plan for smart growth Project Overview Focus Area Existing Problems • Safety • Capacity • Mobility & Local Connectivity • Degraded Facilities Metas • Aliviar la congestión • Mejorar la seguridad y el acceso • Mejorar la habitabilidad del vecindario • Planear para un crecimiento inteligente Descripción del proyecto Focus Area Problemas Actuales • La seguridad • Capacidad • Movilidad y Conectividad Local • Instalaciones degradadas At-Grade Bridge Capacity and Connectivity Poor Realigned Lemay would experience train delays. Requires closure of existing Lemay. Good Extends over train (avoids train delay) Existing Lemay stays open as a multimodal at-grade crossing. Constructability and Construction Risks Poor Difficult to keep BNSF operational during construction Good Permitting and Approval Risks Poor Requires closure of existing Vine/Lemay in order to construct a new crossing Good Total Project Cost $$ $$ Noise Fair Fair Elevated roadway Water Resources, Flooding, Drainage Good Good Summary Severe Challenges Preferred Option Screening Process A Nivel Puente Capacidad y Conectividad Pobre Realineamiento de Lemay causaría retrasos de tren. Requiere cierre de Lemay actual. Bueno Sería por encima del tren (evitaría los retrasos del tren) El Lemay actual permanecería abierto como un paso a nivel multimodal. Riesgos de construcción y de la viabilidad de la construcción Pobre Difícil mantener operativo al BNSF durante la construcción Bueno Riesgos de los Permisos y de las Autorizaciones Pobre Requiere el cierre del Vine / Lemay actual para construir un nuevo cruce Bueno Costo Total del Proyecto $$ $$ Ruido Justo Justo Carretera elevada Recursos del Agua, Inundaciones, Drenaje Bueno Bueno Resumen Desafíos severos Opción Preferente Proceso de selección Realigned At-Grade Option Bridge Option Phase 1 Project Renderings of 2-Lane Bridge/Proyecto fase 1 Renders del puente de 2 carriles Interim condition until funding is secured for 4-Lane Bridge Condición de interino hasta que el financiamiento está asegurado para puente de 4 carriles These renderings show potential long-term development over the next 20-30 years. This development is only a concept based on approved zoning. Estas versiones muestran potencial de desarrollo a largo plazo en los próximos 20-30 años. Este desarrollo es sólo un concepto basado en la zonificación aprobada. PhaseBridge 1 Project Phase Renderings 1 Project: of 2-Lane Bridge/Renderings Proyecto fase of 2-1 Lane Renders del puente de 2 carriles These renderings show potential long-term development over the next 20-30 years. This development is only a concept based on approved zoning. Estas versiones muestran potencial de desarrollo a largo plazo en los próximos 20-30 años. Este desarrollo es sólo un concepto basado en la zonificación aprobada 9th Street (South of Vine) Detached Sidewalk Remains Se queda la acera separada Drainage Issues? ¿Problemas de drenaje? Add Bike Lane? ¿Añadir el carril bici? Curb or No Curb? ¿Borde de la banqueta? Keep parking? ¿Mantener el estacionamiento? We need your input on the future 9th Street between Buckingham and the new Suniga. Please use a sticky note to write down your suggestions. Necesitamos su opinión sobre el futuro de la Calle 9 entre Buckingham y la nueva Suniga. Utilice una nota adhesiva para anotar sus sugerencias. Improvements to sidewalks? ¿Mejoras en las aceras? 9th Street (North of Vine) •Current City Funding Available for the Project: $10 Million $2 Million - Budgeting for Outcomes (BFO) Offers $8 Million – Collected from development fees •Additional Funding Required: $12 Million $2M –Future development repays to the City Funding Schedule Preliminary Design • Alternatives Selection • Confirm utility impacts • Define property to be purchased Construction • Prepare the site • Relocate utilities • Construction bridge Previous Plans • City Planning efforts • East Vine/Lemay Intersection Realignment Development Report Final Design • Produce design drawings for construction • Buy the needed land 1997-2014 2017 2018/2019+ We Are Here 2017/2018 Anticipated Cost Bridge and roadway improvements: $20-$22 Million • Financiamiento Disponible para el Proyecto: $ 10 Millones $ 2 millones – Ofertas del Presupuesto por Resultados (BFO) $ 8 millones - Recaudado de las tasas de desarrollo • Financiamiento adicional requerido: $ 10 millones - $ 12 millones $ 2 millones - El desarrollo futuro que se reembolsará a la ciudad Financiación Programación Diseño preliminar • Selección de Alternativas • Confirmar los impactos a los servicios públicos • Definir las propiedades que habrá que adquirirse Construcción • Preparar el lugar • Trasladar los servicios públicos • Construir el puente Planes anteriores • Esfuerzos del departamento de Planificación de la Ciudad • Informe de Desarrollo de la Realineación de la Intersección Vine Este / Lemay Diseño final • Producir los bocetos del diseño para la construcción • Adquirir los terrenos necesarios 1997-2014 2017 2018/2019+ Estamos aquí 2017/2018 Costo Anticipado Puente y mejoras de la carretera: $ 20 - $ 22 millones Provide Comments/Proporcionar comentarios: • Complete a Comment Card (tonight)/Completar una tarjeta de comentarios (esta noche) • Contact the project team/Contactar al equipo del proyecto For more information/Para más información: Sign up for the project mailing list/Inscríbase en la lista de correo del proyecto: http://www.fcgov.com/engineering/vine-lemay.php Contact Tim Kemp, City of Fort Collins Project Manager Phone: 970-416-2719 tkemp@fcgov.com Contactar Tim Kemp, Ciudad de Fort Collins Gerente de Proyecto Teléfono: 970-416-2719 tkemp@fcgov.com AECOM Technical Services, Inc. 9400 Amberglen Boulevard, Austin, TX 78729 T 512-454-4797 F 512-454-6499 Memorandum Date: November 10, 2016 and October 11, 2017 To: City of Fort Collins, CO From: AECOM project team Subject: Lemay Avenue at E. Vine Drive Conceptual Toll Feasibility Study Executive Summary This technical memorandum summarizes AECOM’s high-level, conceptual study to evaluate the financial feasibility of developing a toll bridge for the proposed grade separation of Lemay Avenue and E. Vine Drive. The following statements conclude the results of this study: • The financial analysis used a rational model based on the Net Present Value (NPV) analysis of the discounted cash flows for a 30-year analysis period and for the base case indicated a total deficit of nearly $12 million for the proposed project if implemented as a toll road using revenue finance. This project would therefore not be attractive to investors, unless seed capital was provided by the City. • Given this project would be the first toll project in Fort Collins area, it will likely be difficult to gain pubic support and acceptance for a toll bridge, which is similar to many other bridges provided from tax revenue. • An investment grade study is required to obtain a bond rating from rating agencies, in order to go to the market for revenue-based funding – this takes time and adds to the schedule to complete the improvement of this project. The additional funding requirements required by the bond market, including debt service coverage and reserve accounts have not been included in this analysis. • Environmental justice analysis of the effect of tolling on communities would need to be considered as part of an environmental evaluation and may have a negative impact. • Toll rate sensitivity analysis indicates the project becomes more financially viable at toll rates significantly higher than the $0.35 base rate, which is beyond the range currently charged in Colorado ($0.30 per mile for E-470). • The short length of the project, which determines an appropriate toll rate, results in a proportionally high cost of toll collection, both in capital costs and operating costs. A high adoption rate of transponders would be critical for the cost effective collection of tolls, which has been assumed for this analysis. A Trusted Global Environmental, Health and Safety Partner - 1 – ATTACHMENT 3 AECOM Technical Services, Inc. 9400 Amberglen Boulevard, Austin, TX 78729 T 512-454-4797 F 512-454-6499 Introduction AECOM was retained by the City of Fort Collins to conduct a high-level, conceptual toll feasibility study for the proposed grade separation of Lemay Avenue and E. Vine Drive. The existing intersection of Lemay Avenue and E. Vine Drive is located in the northeast of Fort Collins. It is currently an at-grade, signalized intersection. Both Lemay Avenue and E. Vine Drive are two-lane, undivided roadway with Lemay Avenue running north-south and E. Vine Drive running east-west. The BNSF Railroad track, parallel to the E. Vine Drive, is located less than 50 feet to the south of the intersection and is controlled by a crossing gate on Lemay Avenue. See the following Figure 1 for the location. The Grade Separation Project (The Project) proposed to relocate Lemay Avenue east of the existing intersection and cross over both E. Vine Drive and BNSF Railroad track with a grade-separated interchange. The purpose of this study is to investigate the feasibility of tolling this grade separation at a conceptual level. This technical memorandum provides a brief description of the Project, a summary of the traffic and revenue projections, estimated project costs, financial analysis and concludes with conceptual toll viability. Project Description The existing intersection of Lemay Avenue and E. Vine Drive is severely congested with limited capacity and more than 22,000 daily entering traffic volumes and 2,100 peak hour entering volumes. It also has potential safety concerns with close-by railroad crossings. Lemay Avenue is currently a 2-lane undivided road but is shown as a future 4-lane divided arterial on the City’s Master Street Plan. E. Vine Drive is also a 2-lane undivided road but shown as a 2-lane collector road for the future. The Project, as in the City’s Master Street Plan, proposed to reroute Lemay Avenue between Conifer Street and Buckingham Street and move its intersection with E. Vine Drive approximately 1,000 feet east of existing location. Several alternatives of footprint are under study but the realigned intersection of Lemay Avenue and E. Vine Drive will be grade separated with realigned Lemay Avenue crossing over both E. Vine Drive and BNSF Railroad Crossing, as shown on Figure 2. A Trusted Global Environmental, Health and Safety Partner - 2 – AECOM Technical Services, Inc. 9400 Amberglen Boulevard, Austin, TX 78729 T 512-454-4797 F 512-454-6499 This analysis studies the financial feasibility of tolling this grade-separated segment of realigned Lemay Avenue with the following assumptions: • All electronic tolling • One toll gantry on the bridge • No toll barriers with unimpeded traffic flow • Customers will have either transponder or video billing • Customers will be fined for non-payment violation • Use regional/national private tolling service The Project is expected to provide the following benefits: • Closure of at-grade rail crossing for enhanced operations and safety • Reduction in number and severity of accidents at intersection and rail crossing • Reduced journey times • Improved journey time reliability • Improved distribution of traffic from/to Downtown Fort Collins • Reduction in air/noise pollution In the following sections, traffic and revenue forecast will be discussed with the tolling concept, followed by a project cost estimation and financial analysis. Toll viability is determined and discussed at conceptual level at the end. A Trusted Global Environmental, Health and Safety Partner - 3 – AECOM Technical Services, Inc. 9400 Amberglen Boulevard, Austin, TX 78729 T 512-454-4797 F 512-454-6499 Traffic & Revenue Analysis Traffic & revenue forecast includes a projection of future traffic volumes under the proposed project configuration and an estimation of annual revenues with the assumed tolling policy. While a detailed traffic & revenue analysis requires comprehensive data collection and sophisticated traffic modeling, this study aims at providing a “back-of-envelope” analysis solely based on publicly available data. 1. Traffic Data 1.1. Existing Traffic Existing traffic counts were collected from the City of Fort Collins website including annual daily counts and peak hour turning movement counts at the intersection, as shown in Table 1 and Table 2. Table 1 Daily Traffic Counts (Collected in May, 2015) Location NB SB EB WB 9th St./N. Lemay Ave. (S. of E. Vine Dr.) 6,714 9,640 N. Lemay Ave. (N. of E. Vine Dr.) 8,079 8,275 E. Vine Dr. (E. of N. Lemay Ave.) 3,772 3,579 E. Vine Dr. (W. of N. Lemay Ave.) 3,543 2,888 Table 2 Peak Hour Turning Movement Counts Lemay - SB Vine - WB Lemay - NB Vine - EB Right Thru Left Right Thru Left Right Thru Left Right Thru Left 7:30 AM - 8: 30 AM Total Volume 41 594 46 89 184 63 39 311 39 68 111 9 % App. Total 6% 87% 7% 26% 55% 19% 10% 80% 10% 36% 59% 5% 12:00 PM - 1:00 PM Total Volume 26 465 49 63 115 57 47 509 54 69 112 30 % App. Total 5% 86% 9% 27% 49% 24% 8% 83% 9% 33% 53% 14% 4:30 - 5:30 PM Total Volume 26 520 72 142 159 40 74 751 53 73 202 40 % App. Total 4% 84% 12% 42% 47% 12% 8% 86% 6% 23% 64% 13% Based on the traffic counts, traffic volumes on Lemay Avenue are over 16,000 vehicles per day, with over 12,000 vehicle per day are through traffic crossing both E. Vine Drive and BNSF Railroad track. A Trusted Global Environmental, Health and Safety Partner - 4 – AECOM Technical Services, Inc. 9400 Amberglen Boulevard, Austin, TX 78729 T 512-454-4797 F 512-454-6499 1.2. Traffic Growth Rate As no historical daily traffic count data are available, the daily traffic growth rate is derived from population and employment growth in the region. According to City of Fort Collins (as of April, 2015), the city population is shown in Table 3. From year 2012 to year 2016, the city’s population grew at 1.8% annual compound rate. In addition, Forbes web site indicates that the city’s job growth is 2.8% for the year of 2014. Denver Post has reported that the Fort Collins metro area will see metro GDP growth of 4% and job growth of 2.4% in 2016, according to annual forecast from the U.S. Conference of Mayors. Table 3 Fort Collins Population Estimates 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Preliminary City Population Estimate 158,300 161,000 State Population Estimate 150,110 152,205 154,570 Combining population and employment growth information, we assume that, during the 50 years project cycle, the traffic will grow at 2% annual compound rate for the first 15 years, 1% for the second 15 years, and 0.5% for the remainder 20 years. 2. Project Assumption 2.1. Study Year It is assumed the Project will complete construction and be open to traffic in Year 2020. A total of 50 years is assumed to be the tolling period for the purpose of analysis. 2.2. Toll Rate Toll rate for the Lemay grade separation is assumed to be 35 cents for opening year 2020 and escalate with inflation. This rate is consistent with US experience for short toll roads crossing minor obstructions According to U.S. Department of Transportation’s The Value of Travel Time Savings: Departmental Guidance for Conducting Economic Evaluations, Revision 2 (2015 Update), the value-of-time (VOT) for work related travel over all distance is assumed to be equal to the median hourly wage and an estimate of hourly benefits. For personal travel, the VOT is assumed to be 50% of hourly median household income. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average hourly wage for Fort Collins-Loveland Metropolitan Statistical Area is $22.23 in May, 2014, about 37 cents per minute. The median household income in the City of Fort Collins is $53,780 based on American Community Survey five- year average from year 2009 to 2013, which gives a VOT of 21 cents per minute for personal travel in the region. Based on U.S. DOT’s VOT guideline, the 35 cents toll rate for the Project is equivalent to about 1-minute time savings for work related travel and about 1.5-minute time savings for leisure travel. It was assumed that the tolls were exempt from sales tax, and that efficient enforcement limited revenue leakage to low levels. A Trusted Global Environmental, Health and Safety Partner - 5 – AECOM Technical Services, Inc. 9400 Amberglen Boulevard, Austin, TX 78729 T 512-454-4797 F 512-454-6499 2.3. Toll Diversion Within 1-mile range of existing intersection, there is no arterial road that can function as an alternate route for travelers using Lemay Avenue to cross over E. Vine Drive and BNSF Railroad track. As the Grade Separation Project improves the reliability for the through traffic on Lemay Avenue as well as offers time savings avoiding the signal controlled intersection and railroad blockage delays, it is possible that we see the overpass attract more through traffic. For the simplicity of this analysis, we assumed through traffic volumes will remain as is with no toll diversion. Also no reduction is applied for ramp up periods since existing route has few viable alternatives. A simplified toll sensitivity analysis is presented in Appendix A. The sensitivity analysis indicates that at higher tolls there is significant toll diversion, as alternate routes to the east become attractive despite longer journey times. 3. Traffic and Revenue Forecast Using these traffic data and project assumptions, future traffic forecast and revenues were calculated and tabulated as shown in Table 4. The annual revenue is based on an annualization factor of 250 days. Figure 3 shows the annual toll revenue by year. In total, the project is expected to generate $87 million in toll revenue over a 50-year period. A Trusted Global Environmental, Health and Safety Partner - 6 – AECOM Technical Services, Inc. 9400 Amberglen Boulevard, Austin, TX 78729 T 512-454-4797 F 512-454-6499 Table 4 Annual Traffic & Revenue Forecast YEAR Daily Transaction Annual Revenue ($) Growth ACCUMULATIVE REVENUE 2020 14,082 $ 1,232,175 $ 1,232,175 2021 14,363 $ 1,256,763 2% $ 2,488,938 2022 14,650 $ 1,281,875 2% $ 3,770,813 2023 14,943 $ 1,307,513 2% $ 5,078,326 2024 15,241 $ 1,333,588 2% $ 6,411,914 2025 15,545 $ 1,360,188 2% $ 7,772,102 2026 15,855 $ 1,387,313 2% $ 9,159,415 2027 16,172 $ 1,415,050 2% $ 10,574,465 2028 16,495 $ 1,443,313 2% $ 12,017,778 2029 16,824 $ 1,472,100 2% $ 13,489,878 2030 17,160 $ 1,501,500 2% $ 14,991,378 2031 17,503 $ 1,531,513 2% $ 16,522,891 2032 17,853 $ 1,562,138 2% $ 18,085,029 2033 18,210 $ 1,593,375 2% $ 19,678,404 2034 18,574 $ 1,625,225 2% $ 21,303,629 2035 18,759 $ 1,641,413 1% $ 22,945,042 2036 18,946 $ 1,657,775 1% $ 24,602,817 2037 19,135 $ 1,674,313 1% $ 26,277,130 2038 19,326 $ 1,691,025 1% $ 27,968,155 2039 19,519 $ 1,707,913 1% $ 29,676,068 2040 19,714 $ 1,724,975 1% $ 31,401,043 2041 19,911 $ 1,742,213 1% $ 33,143,256 2042 20,110 $ 1,759,625 1% $ 34,902,881 2043 20,311 $ 1,777,213 1% $ 36,680,094 2044 20,514 $ 1,794,975 1% $ 38,475,069 2045 20,719 $ 1,812,913 1% $ 40,287,982 2046 20,926 $ 1,831,025 1% $ 42,119,007 2047 21,135 $ 1,849,313 1% $ 43,968,320 2048 21,346 $ 1,867,775 1% $ 45,836,095 2049 21,559 $ 1,886,413 1% $ 47,722,508 2050 21,666 $ 1,895,775 0.5% $ 49,618,283 A Trusted Global Environmental, Health and Safety Partner - 7 – AECOM Technical Services, Inc. 9400 Amberglen Boulevard, Austin, TX 78729 T 512-454-4797 F 512-454-6499 Project Cost Cost estimate for the lifecycle of the Project includes both construction cost and operations and maintenance (O&M) cost. Upfront construction cost includes: • Grade separation total construction cost - $25 million • Tolling system cost - $3 million In this estimate, routine & capital maintenance cost is not considered for the grade separation of the structure, but is included for tolling system. Toll system maintenance cost is assumed $200,000 a year and escalate at CPI rate. Based on industry practice, the feasibility study also assumes a lifecycle replacement of electronic system every 7 years that is equal to $1 million. This feasibility study considers toll operation costs in both electronic transponders and video billing. Electronic transponders has low transaction cost. Video billing incurs higher cost and typically charges a premium to cover cost such as admin fees and losses. It is assumed transponder will incur 8 cents per transaction plus a 2.5% merchant fee based on industry standard practice. Video billing cost is considered equal to the video billing premium – a typical industry aim, which is not always achieved. Financial Analysis The value of the project was assessed using the Net Present Value (NPV) of the discounted cash flows for a 30-year analysis period with a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) as the discounted rate. A WACC of 4.5% is assumed to be consistent with municipal funding backed by toll revenue stream. There is no consideration of financing requirements such as Debt Service Coverage. Construction cost is assumed to escalate at 3.0%, higher than the 2.0% Retail Price Index which is Federal Reserve goal. The NPVs calculated at 2016 $ are presented in Table 5. The valuation of the project does not make the grade separation of Lemay Avenue and E. Vine Drive financially viable as an independent project. Table 5 Net Present Value of the Project with 30-year Toll Revenue Note: total does not sum correctly due to rounding The NPV analysis demonstrates that the project does not meet typical market criteria for funding secured on a future toll revenue stream, even when roadway and bridge maintenance costs are not considered in the analysis. Substantial public sector funding would be required to close the funding gap. A Trusted Global Environmental, Health and Safety Partner - 8 – AECOM Technical Services, Inc. 9400 Amberglen Boulevard, Austin, TX 78729 T 512-454-4797 F 512-454-6499 Toll Viability In addition to financial feasibility, the following factors also need to be considered for the viability of a tolling project: • Political Acceptance • Environmental Justice • Local Buy-In • Technical Viability. The proposed realignment of Lemay Ave with tolls is technically feasible using proven technologies. These factors will be considered briefly as part of a high level risk review. Tolling Project Risks 1. Political acceptability: The project will require strong advocates and legal authority to overcome the dual obstacles of this Project being the first toll project in Fort Collins and a possible perception of double taxation: tax plus tolls. Political acceptance will likely be more difficult to achieve because the project is not financially viable as an independent project. 2. Achieving Local Buy-In: The absence of a good alternative route, when an alternative existed previously, may make achieving local buy-in problematic. The communities immediately adjacent to the proposed toll road will likely need to use the toll road on multiple occasions each day. The improved safety provided by the elimination of the at-grade rail crossing will be assessed against the effect on net household income. Local buy-in would likely be improved if the project were part of a safety program in which all improvements were tolled. 3. Schedule: Introducing tolling to the proposed realignment of Lemay Ave could impact the schedule for completion of the project. o Environmental justice: The specific effects of tolling on communities would be considered as part of an environmental re-evaluation. o Funding: The use of toll revenue financing could accelerate the implementation of the project. 4. Net Revenue: This conceptual analysis has used a rational economic model to assess the potential diversion of traffic due to tolling. Public perception may increase or decrease that diversion of traffic. Net revenue would be substantially affected by the usage of transponders. As the first toll road in Fort Collins, initial market penetration of transponders might be slow, increasing toll operations costs for a facility that offers no economies of scale. Partnership with an existing toll entity could help to mitigate these risks and costs. A Trusted Global Environmental, Health and Safety Partner - 9 – AECOM Technical Services, Inc. 9400 Amberglen Boulevard, Austin, TX 78729 T 512-454-4797 F 512-454-6499 Disclaimer This technical memorandum is for a high level feasibility study only. The traffic and revenue forecasts are subject to change. It is AECOM’ opinion that the toll revenue projections are reasonable at this level and that they have been prepared in accordance with accepted practice. However, given the uncertainties within the current international and economic climate, it is important to note the following limitations: This report presents the results of AECOM’ consideration of the information available as of the date hereof and the application of AECOM’ experience and professional judgment to that information. It is not a guarantee of any future events or trends. The traffic and toll revenue forecasts will be subject to future economic and social conditions, demographic developments and regional transportation construction activities that cannot be predicted with certainty. The projections contained in this report, while presented with numeric specificity, are based on a number of estimates and assumptions which, though considered reasonable to us, are inherently subject to significant economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of the client and cannot be predicted with certainty. In many instances, a broad range of alternative assumptions could be considered reasonable. Changes in the assumptions used could result in material differences in projected outcomes. AECOM’ toll revenue projections only represent its best judgment and AECOM does not warrant or represent that the actual toll revenues will not vary from its projections, estimates, and forecasts. If, for any reason, any of these conditions should change due to changes in the economy or competitive environment, or other factors, AECOM’ opinions or estimates may be affected. This technical memorandum is for the limited purpose of providing information to the City of Fort Collins, and is not intended and is not to be used or read to provide any municipal advisory advice or otherwise used in connection with the offering of any securities that may be issued in connection with the Lemay/Vine Grade Separation Project and no person or entity other than the City of Fort Collins, is authorized or permitted to rely on this report without the express written consent of AECOM. A Trusted Global Environmental, Health and Safety Partner - 10 – 1 Vine and Lemay – Council Work Session Engineering Department October 24, 2017 ATTACHMENT 4 Questions 2 • Does Council support the staff recommendation for a bridge over BNSF and Vine Drive? • Does Council support a November, 2017 $2M appropriation of TCEF reserves to fund continued ROW acquisition and construction opportunities in 2018? Presentation Overview 3 • Switching Yard Relocation • Bridge v. At-Grade Alternatives • Project Funding • NECCO Collaboration • Public Outreach • Next Steps Switching Yard Relocation 4 • $40M Estimate for Concept Relocation Plan • “Net Neutral” for BNSF – No Economic Benefit • Not Recommended as a Near-Term Solution Realigned Lemay At-Grade Option 5 • Vine Drive must Close at Realigned Lemay • Existing Vine / Lemay Intersection must Close • Realigned Lemay At-Grade moves 1,000’ closer to Switching Yard Operations Realigned Lemay Bridge Option 6 • Vine Drive stays Open at Realigned Lemay (short term), Potential Bike / Ped only option in the future • Existing Vine / Lemay Intersection remains Open • Realigned Lemay will not be impacted by Switching Yard Operations Bridge v. At-Grade (Realigned Lemay) 7 Comparison Intersection of Options Neighborhood Capacity Connectivity Type and At-Poor Grade Bridge Good Livability Emergency Access and Fair Good Permitting Approvals and Poor Good Total Cost (Project 2017) $22M $22M Summary Challenges Significant Least Challenges Proposed Bridge Rendering 8 Proposed Bridge Rendering 9 Project Funding Options 10 1. “Pay as we Go” Option – Set aside one-time money each year 2. Debt Financing Option – Similar to recent Downtown Parking Garage scenario 3. Proposed Tolling System Option • Funding options will be reviewed at November 20 Council Finance Committee meeting Total BFO Transportation Offers Project (already Cost Capital appropriated) Expansion Fee $$ 22M* 2M (TCEF) Additional Contribution Funding Needed $$10M*10M * TABLE A – Project Funding * Denotes 2017 Dollars ** $10M (TCEF) includes $2M of future Developer repays / contributions from adjacent properties Proposed Tolling System Option 11 • Staff has Contracted with a Consulting Firm with Nationwide Tolling Expertise • Initial Capital and Ongoing Expenses too high for this Project • “Toll Avoidance” Issues • Creates a Fairness and Equity Issue for Residents / Businesses Utilities Partnering Collaboration 12 • Utilities Stormwater Master Plan under Construction along Suniga Road alignment • Early Construction Phase and Cost Savings ($700k) Proposed Box Culvert and Fill Area Vine Drive N $2M TCEF Appropriation 13 Transportation Contribution Proposed TCEF TABLE Capital Appropriation A Expansion – TCEF November, Fee Summary (TCEF) 2017 $ $ 10M 2M TABLE B – Proposed TCEF Appropriation Future TCEF Appropriations $ 8M Proposed Dry Dirt Creek Placement TCEF Box Culverts in Appropriation Realigned Lemay November, Right-of-Way 2017 $ $ $ 2.0.0.0M 6M 5M Right-Total Coordination Cost of-Way for for Acquisitions 2018 Future Construction Cost south Saving of Opportunities Opportunities Vine Drive $ $ $ 0.1.0.3M 4M 6M Public Outreach and Engagement 14 • Numerous Staff Presentations from February, 2016 to date • September, 2017 Open House – Local Residents • Late, 2017 / Early, 2018 – Broaden the Discussions with Key Stakeholders Next Steps 15 • $2M TCEF Appropriation Ordinance before Council in November, 2017 • November 20 Council Finance Committee Meeting for Funding Options • Continued Public Outreach • 60% Design Questions 16 • Does Council support the staff recommendation for a bridge over BNSF and Vine Drive? • Does Council support a November, 2017 $2M appropriation of TCEF reserves to fund continued ROW acquisition and construction opportunities in 2018? + 2 111 0 + 2 0 PC 103+98.58 P T 1 06 + 97.76 2 0 + 00 25 + 00 30 + 0 0 3 5 + 00 40 + 0 0 45 + 00 50 + 00 5 5 + 00 60 + 00 65 + 0 0 7 0 + 00 75 + 0 0 8 0 + 00 8 5 + 00 90 + 00 90 + 46 P C 21 + 05 . 9 3 P T 26 + 0 3 . 2 1 P C 28 + 60 . 91 P T 4 0 + 23 . 37 P C 48 + 43.27 P T 55 + 34 .69 P C 6 2 + 82.74 P T 6 4 + 7 6. 4 9 P C 7 2 + 4 0.67 P T 79 + 0 5. 78 P C 81 + 08 . 08 P T 89 + 6 6.09 T T 0’ 200’ 400’ 800’ SUBDIVISION PROPOSED CAPSTONE S . LE M AY AV E . E. LINCOLN AVE. BUCKINGHAM ST. E. VINE DR. SUNIGA DR. N. LEMAY AVE. (REALIGNED) RETAINING WALL BEGIN BRIDGE END BRIDGE BOX CULVERT CONCRETE PROPOSED ROW LEMAY AVENUE PROJECT LAYOUT PARK FUTURE BREWERY/MINI STORAGE PROPOSED KEY EXISTING RR EXISTING PROPERTY LINE PROJECT FOOTPRINT PROPOSED ROADWAY PROPOSED SIDEWALK PROPOSED ROW LINE ATTACHMENT 1