HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOUNCIL - AGENDA ITEM - 02/13/2018 - CITY PLAN UPDATE - TRENDS AND FORCESDATE:
STAFF:
February 13, 2018
Ryan Mounce, City Planner
Cameron Gloss, Planning Manager
WORK SESSION ITEM
City Council
SUBJECT FOR DISCUSSION
City Plan Update - Trends and Forces.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The purpose of this item is to update Council and the community about key findings from the draft City Plan:
Trends & Forces report. The report provides information about current conditions and anticipated trends on a
range of topics such as demographics, transportation, development activity and land supply, housing access, the
economy, climate action, and more. Staff anticipates sharing information contained in the report as part of the
launch of public activities for City Plan to build a common understanding of existing conditions prior to updating
and refining the community vision.
GENERAL DIRECTION SOUGHT AND SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED
1. Does Council have input regarding any missing data, research, or analysis needed as part of the Trends &
Forces report?
2. Does Council have any direction on the key challenges and choices for the future highlighted in the report?
BACKGROUND / DISCUSSION
City Plan Project Overview and Timeline
City Plan is an 18-month process to update the City’s Comprehensive Plan, Transportation Master Plan, and
Transit Master Plan. Collectively, these Plans articulate a general vision for the future of the community and
provide high-level policy guidance to help inform decision-making. City Plan is a forward-looking document and
process envisioning what the community will feel and look like over the next 5-20 years. Prior updates to the
comprehensive plan and transportation master plan occurred in 2011, while the Transit Master Plan (previously
called the Transfort Strategic Operating Plan) occurred in 2009.
Previous updates to these plans focused on aligning the community vision and policy guidance to match the
Budgeting for Outcomes (BFO) process and the seven key outcome areas. As part of the next City Plan update,
staff worked to incorporate Council direction and feedback to focus efforts on the following topics:
• Buildout and Development - Vacant and buildable land supply in the Growth Management Area (GMA) is
diminishing. The next City Plan update will explore which values and priorities are most important to the
community as these remaining lands are developed and preserved, and if remaining land is sufficient to meet
projected housing, commercial, and industrial demand.
• Housing Access - Affordability and housing choice are consistently ranked as a top priority for residents who
participate in the City’s Community Survey. As rents and home prices continue to outpace wage growth, what
tools and factors can the City influence to enhance housing opportunities and housing options?
• Transportation and Mobility - City Plan will explore the role of shifting travel behaviors, technologies, and
funding mechanisms that may influence changes to the Master Street Plan. City Plan also seeks to clarify
where the community’s vision for transit falls along the spectrum from coverage (serving many geographic
areas) to productivity (frequent service where ridership is highest).
February 13, 2018 Page 2
• Climate Action - City Plan will incorporate the direction and guidance provided by the City’s climate action
goals into City Plan, and determine potential changes to our land-use and transportation frameworks to help
achieve these goals.
• Equity - Who you are and where you live in Fort Collins may place you on a different path than residents with
a different background or who live elsewhere in the City. The City Plan document, and its engagement
process, will more directly incorporate equity as a lens through which the vision and policies are updated.
This spring, following completion of the Trends & Forces report, City Plan will begin a visioning phase with events
and activities designed to solicit input from the community around key values and priorities. Refinements to City
Plan’s vision and goals, especially as they relate to the focus areas described above, are anticipated. Remaining
phases of the plan and projected timelines are included in Attachment 1, City Plan Phases and Timeline.
Trends & Forces Report
City Plan provides a high-level vision and goals for the community for the next 5-20 years. The Plan helps form
the basis for the community’s land-use and transportation frameworks, development standards, programs,
policies, and more. Prior to engaging with the community on refining the previously adopted vision and goals, it is
important to have a shared understanding of current conditions and the trends and anticipated direction the
community is heading.
The draft Trends & Forces report, Attachment 2, is an analysis of current conditions and future projections. Data
and information included in the report was selected to explore City Plan’s focus areas and includes figures on
community demographics, land supply and development activity, housing access, economic conditions and
demand forecasts, transportation network trends, and progress toward climate action goals. Highlights from these
sections and key questions or challenges raised by the findings are summarized below.
Community Profile
▪ Fort Collins’s rate of growth will slow through 2040 while numeric growth will be steady - approximately 2,000
to 3,000 additional residents are expected annually. Fort Collins could grow from approximately 170,000
today to 235,000 in 2040.
▪ Mirroring state and national trends, the City’s population is expected to age, especially for those over 65 years
in age.
▪ The City’s Hispanic/Latino population is growing. While approximately 13% of the overall population identifies
as Hispanic/Latino in 2016, for the population 18 years and under, this rises to 21%, with 10% identifying as
other (i.e. two or more races).
▪ A composite of community health and equity indicators, such as poverty rates, access to vehicles and higher
obesity rates are unevenly distributed throughout the community. Areas north/northeast of Downtown and
along the East Mulberry corridor indicate more vulnerability.
Key challenges and choices:
o Fort Collins and the region are projected to grow at rates above the national average. Planning for and
managing this anticipated growth, especially within remaining vacant lands, will be an important
community discussion.
o As our population becomes older, has fewer households with children and becomes more diverse, how
will our built environment, policies, and programs need to change to suit the needs of a changing
community?
o How can the community better understand barriers faced by certain groups or geographic areas and use
an equity lens to ensure all residents have access to services, resources, and opportunities?
February 13, 2018 Page 3
Buildout and Development
▪ A majority of all new residential units permitted in Fort Collins are for multifamily (apartments), a shift from
predominantly single-family homes constructed during the 1990s and 2000s.
▪ Only 22% of development since 2000 has occurred within targeted infill and redevelopment areas. Most
development still takes place at the community’s periphery on vacant land.
▪ Approximately 6,900 acres of vacant lands remain in the GMA, down from 9,600 in 2008, a decrease of
28%. Most of this vacant land is zoned for residential, primarily at lower densities. Approximately 20% of
the land is constrained by natural hazards, such as floodplains.
▪ As vacant lands decrease, more redevelopment and infill within the core of the community is anticipated.
This redevelopment tends to be of much higher density.
▪ A majority of remaining vacant land is not served by City sewer and water utilities, which could impact the
availability, timing, and pricing of future development in these areas.
Key challenges and choices:
o Fort Collins development activity is increasingly constrained by a limited supply of vacant land. New
developments will be increasingly constrained by land availability, land prices, services and utilities,
natural hazards, and community goals to preserve and protect sensitive natural features.
o Major changes to the retail, office and production industries may provide opportunities to examine our
mix of land uses.
o How should our targeted mix of land uses be impacted by growth within the surrounding region?
o Targeted areas of the community may experience increasing infill and redevelopment as vacant lands
diminish. Redevelopment tends to occur at higher densities to its surroundings, which can lead to
tensions around compatibility and community character.
Housing Access
▪ Since 2000, Fort Collins and Larimer County have produced more jobs than housing units. The jobs-
housing imbalance has recently accelerated; since 2010, average annual jobs have increased by 3.2%,
while housing units have increased by 1.3% annually.
▪ Rents and home prices in Fort Collins are increasing faster than wages. Since 2000, median sales prices
have increased on average 4.4% each year compared to 1.8% for household median income.
▪ In 2016, nearly 59% of renter-households were cost-burdened or severely cost-burdened, compared to
17% of owner-occupied households.
▪ Housing demand through 2040 is anticipated to exceed supply available through new development on
vacant lands.
▪ Rising land costs, construction labor shortages, changes in national/state affordable housing funding and
grants along with the above listed factors increase the difficulty of the community meetings its target for
10% of all housing units as affordable by 2040.
Key challenges and choices:
o Anticipated trends highlight increasing difficulty for the community to meet its affordable housing
goals of 10% of all units as affordable in 2040.
o If new jobs continue to outpace new housing units, Fort Collins will increasingly import workers from
the community, likely decreasing affordability, and generating additional regional trips.
February 13, 2018 Page 4
o The current zoning framework on vacant lands in the GMA indicate there is insufficient supply to meet
future housing demand. Is the community willing to look at current commercial/industrial lands for
additional housing capacity?
Economy and Employment
▪ Fort Collins is capturing less of the overall region’s demand for office, retail, and industrial/flex as
development occurs around I-25 to the south.
▪ Job growth is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.9% through 2040, representing an additional
85,000 jobs in Larimer County. This rate of growth is project to exceed growth in housing supply.
▪ The jobs-housing balance in Fort Collins was 1.18 in 2010 and rose to 1.25 in 2015. Projections for
Larimer County anticipate a future jobs-housing balance of 2.55 in 2040.
▪ Based on demand forecasts, vacant land in the GMA is anticipated to meet Industrial demand and
commercial/mixed-use, but shows an oversupply of employment land.
Key challenges and choices:
o As regional retail, entertainment and flex space grows to the south, how will that impact Fort Collins’
travel patterns, development patterns, and revenue environment?
o Is the community comfortable importing additional workers over time, or should we explore ways to
increase housing supply to better balance our jobs-housing ratio?
o What types of industries and development is Fort Collins best suited to retain and attract in the future
given the quantity and quality of development and redevelopment opportunities and the communities’
skillsets?
o What types and quality of jobs are forecast, and how will that impact underemployment?
Transportation and Mobility
▪ Single occupancy vehicle trips remain the primary mode choice for 75% of commuters.
▪ Since 2011, Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) per capita are decreasing.
▪ The community is experiencing an increase in commuting from adjacent cities, particularly Loveland,
Windsor, and Timnath.
▪ Bicycle ridership continues to grow and expand alongside the expansion of the community’s bicycle
system.
▪ With over 400 miles of deficient sidewalks, walking as a trip choice remains low, however, there is now a
dedicated program and funding to address missing and deficient sidewalks.
▪ Transit ridership has grown by over 90% since 2011, thanks in large part to the launch of MAX and
overall system improvements.
▪ CSU (including students, faculty and staff) account for over half of Transfort ridership.
▪ Safety is an area for continued improvements, with overall crash rates up slightly since 2012.
Key challenges and choices:
o How will the shared economy and changing technologies influence travel in the future? What does a
comprehensive transportation program aimed at reducing single occupancy vehicle trips look like?
February 13, 2018 Page 5
o What are the steps needed to continue or accelerate a reduction in VMT, which means a reduction in
single occupancy vehicle trips?
o What does the City’s investment in Transit look like in the future? Will there be a shift towards a
system based on productivity or coverage?
o What are the long term, stable funding sources for transportation needs?
o What policies are needed to further support walking and bicycling as viable transportation choices?
Climate Action
▪ Climate action includes both mitigation (reducing emissions) and adaptation and resiliency (how we
prepare for, adapt to, and increase our resiliency to climate impacts). The City currently lacks a formal
adaptation and resiliency plan, though other policy documents guide longer-term efforts.
▪ Fort Collins is moving towards its 2020 emission reduction goals. Since 2005, overall emissions are down
12% and per capita emissions are down 28%.
▪ Fort Collins is leading the way in demonstrating how population and economic growth can decouple from
emissions. Since 2005, our population has grown nearly 20% and our economy 30% while overall
emissions are down.
• In the past year alone, several initiatives have transitioned from aspirational to operational, including the
sharp decline in renewable energy prices. In the past few months, Platte River Power Authority released
a Zero Net Carbon study that illustrated a pathway to 100% renewable electricity and signed a Power
Purchase Agreement for 150 megawatts of new wind power, which has the potential to impact the
community’s inventory by 10% and have a net neutral impact on rates over its lifetime.
Key challenges and choices:
o How will climate action efforts integrate with other key trends and forces, e.g., the trend around
increasing jobs ahead of the number of housing units, which has the potential to increase vehicle
miles traveled and thus emissions? Are we willing to accept higher-density development in more
areas of the of the city in exchange for more affordable housing options that encourage transit
usage?
o Given Fort Collins’ extensive existing building stock, a comprehensive approach will be needed to
drive efficiency and transform buildings towards higher energy performance. How will Fort Collins
approach this for all buildings and residents, including low-income residents?
o How will the City and its partners continue working towards becoming a carbon neutral city while also
supporting disruption and innovations in key sectors?
o The City will need to determine the degree to which adaptation and resiliency planning should be
coordinated and formalized.
Next Steps and Community Visioning
The information, analysis, and takeaways from the report will be use directly to help inform upcoming phases of
City Plan, such as refining and updating our vision for the future. The process to adjust the vision will incorporate
not only key drivers from this report, but also community values and priorities, and an understanding of potential
tradeoffs. Advancing the vision in one area may have consequences in another. Updates to the vision will also
incorporate the City’s commitment to the triple bottom line and the interdependency of an economic, social, and
environmental lens.
Staff anticipates providing the next update to Council at the May 22, 2018 work session with information on
community feedback on potential changes to the City Plan vision and ideas on how to frame development and
analysis of scenarios to analyze over the summer.
February 13, 2018 Page 6
ATTACHMENTS
1. City Plan Phases and Timeline (PDF)
2. City Plan Trends & Forces Report (draft) (PDF)
3. Powerpoint presentation (PDF)
1
2018 Update Timeline
Public Kickoff: February 12, 2018, 6-8pm; Drake Centre, 802 W Drake Rd
City Plan Phases & Timeline
ATTACHMENT 1
1
CITY FORT COLLINS PLAN
Trends & Forces Report - Sta Draft: 01/15/18
PLANNING OUR FUTURE. TOGETHER.
ATTACHMENT 2
2
CITY FORT PLANNING COLLINS OUR FUTURE. PLAN TOGETHER.
TRENDS & FORCES
REPORT
3
Planning our future begins with understanding our past...
S ince the last major comprehensive plan and
transportation plan update was completed in
2011, the City of Fort Collins has actively worked
with the community, and local and regional partners,
to implement key recommendations. However, Fort
Collins has changed dramatically in seven years.
Since 2011, the city...
• Added x new residents and x jobs
• Approved building permits for x new residential
units and over x sf of non-residential development
• Made a commitment to reduce GHG emissions by
80 percent below 2005 by 2030, and to achieve
carbon neutrality by 2050
• Saw transit ridership nearly double on the heels of
the MAX line opening in 2014
• Adopted Nature in the City, with a goal of ensuring
every resident is within a 10-minute walk to nature
from their home or workplace.
As a result of these and other changes at the local,
regional, and global scale, the plan must be brought
back into alignment as the community’s overarch-
ing vision and policy guide. This initial step in the
process allows us to take a step back and evaluate
where we are today, what trends and forces are
likely to influence us in the future, what’s working
well (or not), and whether we have the right tools in
place to help us achieve the community’s vision.
This information is provided as a resource to help
build shared understanding of where we are as a
community today, and where we are headed in the
future. It will be used as a foundation for community
and stakeholder discussions and next steps in the
process.
4
4
CONTENTS
Setting the Stage..................................................................................................................6
Focus Area #1: Buildout & Land Supply...........................................................................18
Focus Area #2 Housing Access........................................................................................26
Focus Area #3:Economic Health......................................................................................32
Focus Area #4: Transportation & Mobility Options....................................................................40
Focus Area #5:Climate Action Plan Implementation...................................................50
Key Choices for the The Road Ahead.............................................................................56
Report Card........................................................................................................................62
5
About City Plan
T he City Plan process will include updates to the
City’s comprehensive plan, as well as the Transpor-
tation Master Plan and the Transfort Strategic Operating
Plan (also referred to as the Transit Master Plan). This
integrated process will ensure policies and recommen-
dations are closely aligned. Unless otherwise noted, all
references to City Plan should be interpreted to apply
broadly to all three plans.
City Plan is a multi-step process that is anticipated to
run through the winter of 2018. Opportunities for pub-
lic input and involvement will be provided throughout
each step of the process:
About the Report
T his Trends & Forces Report highlights major trends
and key issues affecting the City of Fort Collins that
must be considered as part of the City Plan update. It
includes four sections:
Setting the Stage-provides an overview of basic demo-
graphic and socio-economic data about our community.
Areas of Focus-explores current conditions and trends
specific to five focus areas that emerged as major topics
for discussion during initial meetings with project stake-
holders in late 2017. These focus areas include:
• Buildout and land supply
• Housing access
• Economic health
• Transportation and mobility options
• Climate Action Plan implementation
• Civic capacity and equity
Key Choices for the Road Ahead-highlights key choices
and trade-offs that will need to be explored during next
steps in the City Plan process in light of trends and ex-
isting conditions in each area.
Report Card- provides an assessment of the success-
es, challenges/areas for improvement, and policy gaps
that need to be addressed as part of the plan update for
each of City Plan’s seven outcome areas.
• Economic Health
• Environmental Health
• Community and Neighborhood Livability
• Safety and Wellness
• Culture, Parks, and Recreation
• High Performing Community
• Transportation
5
COMMUNITY VISIONING
Winter/Spring 2018
Develop and confirm a shared community vision for the
future of Fort Collins.
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
Spring 2018
Discuss several possible scenarios for the future and
how our community vision could be achieved.
DRAFT PLAN DEVELOPMENT
Spring/Summer 2018
Develop and share a draft of the plan, including a
preferred scenario, policies, and recommendations;
revise the draft based on community input.
6
SETTING THE STAGE
Photo: City of Fort Collins
6
7
S ince its incorporation as a city in 1883, Fort
Collins has grown and prospered. In 2016, it was
the fourth most populous city in Colorado (behind
Denver, Colorado Springs, and Aurora), and the
largest in Larimer County. Based on estimates, the
city is expected to reach a population of between
236,000 and 237,000 residents by 2040. As we plan
for the future, it will be important to understand and
address the impacts of recent population growth on
existing residents, as well as to anticipate the needs
of those who will call Fort Collins home in the future.
Beyond raw numbers, our population is incredibly di-
verse. We are a community made up of residents of
different ages, races, and ethnicities. Some of us live
in families, while others live alone. Some of us have
master’s degrees or PhDs, while others do not have
high school diplomas. Many of us own vehicles, but
some of us do not. Our household incomes vary dra-
matically. Some of us are more vulnerable to mental
illness or other health issues than others.
The diversity of our population as a whole, and in dif-
ferent parts of the city, must be taken into account as
we plan for the future. This helps us to better under-
stand who lives in our city, what their future needs
might be, and to ensure we provide equitable oppor-
tunities for all members of our community.
The demographic information presented in this sec-
tion is intended to set the stage for a more in-depth
look at the particular topics that are the focus of this
report:
• Buildout and land supply;
• Housing access;
• Economic health;
• Transportation and mobility options; and
• Climate Action Plan implementation.
7
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
8
Population
Our population will continue
to grow...
Since 1950, Fort Collins has seen
a more than ten-fold increase
in its population, growing from
14,937 residents to approximately
167,000 residents in 2017.
According to estimates, the city
will have a population of over
200,000 residents by 2028, and
will grow by between 69,000
and 70,000 residents by 2040.
...but the rate of population
growth is slowing.
The average annual rate of
population growth in Fort Collins
has slowed each decade since 1950.
Annual growth rates exceeded
5% between 1950 and 1970, but
declined to an annual average
rate of 1.9% between 2000 and
2010. While the decade between
2010 and 2020 is expected to see
a slight increase in the average
annual rate of population growth
(to 2.0%), the overall trend of
slower rates of growth looks set
to continue through the decades
between 2020 and 2040.
We are the largest community
in Larimer County.
Forty eight percent of Larimer
County’s 338,663 residents lived
in Fort Collins in 2016. This was
similar to the proportion of county
residents living in Fort Collins
in 2000 (47%), meaning the
population of residents living in
the city grew at a slightly faster
pace than those living elsewhere
in the county over this period.
Students represent a large
percentage of our overall
population.
On average, Colorado State
University (CSU) students
accounted for 18% of the city’s
total population between 2007 and
2017. The fall 2017 semester marked
the largest student enrollment in
history (33,413). Of these students,
28,446 (or 85%) were enrolled as
resident students. CSU’s campus
master plan accommodates up to
35,000 students. The university
expects that non-resident
student enrollment will drive
9
Setting the Stage | Population
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
Estimated Population �ro�th3
Fort Collins, 2000 - 2040
Estimate (Method 1) Estimate (Method 2)
120,236
167,000
236,112
236,903
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
33,413
CSU ENROLLMENT4
FALL 2017
Population Density
Fort Collins, 1990, 2000, and 2015
1990
1 dot = 1 person
2000 2015
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
WHAT IS DRIVING OUR POPULATION GROWING?
Population change is driven by three variables: the
number of people who are born (births), the number
of people who die (deaths), and net migration,
the number of people moving into an area (in-
migration) minus the number who move away (out-
migration). When births and in-migration are larger
than deaths and out-migration, a population grows;
a population shrinks when the opposite is true. The
State Demography Office tracks these components of
population change for each county in Colorado, and
makes projections for what these will be in the future.
Since 1990, births and in-migration have exceeded
deaths and out-migration in Larimer County. Births
have been a consistent driver of growth, but have not
grown significantly between 1990 and 2017. Thanks to
the high quality of life in Larimer County, in-migration
has exceeded out-migration creating a positive net
migration of people throughout this period. Unlike
births, in-migration has varied considerably between
1990 and 2017. For instance, net migration in 2003
contributed just 148 people to population growth,
compared to 7,523 people in 2015. On average, net
migration was responsible for over half of the new
residents who moved to Larimer County in any given
year (although, this was not true, on average, between
2000 and 2010).
On the other side of the equation, deaths have been
increasing since 1990. The average annual rate of
growth in the number of deaths between 1990 and
2017 (3.3%) exceeded that for births (1.0%). According
to the State Demographer’s forecasts, this trend will
continue into the future. By 2040, there will be 1.22
births in Larimer County for every death compared to
1.44 births per death in 2017. This trend underscores the
role of positive net migration as a driver for population
growth. The State Demographer predicts that net
migration will continue to be positive to 2040.
-100,000
-50,000
0
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1990
1994
1998
11
Setting the Stage | Demographics
Demographics
Our millennial population
is growing.
Millennials (residents between
the ages of 20 and 34) were the
largest age cohort in Fort Collins,
accounting for 35% of the total
population in 2015. As a cohort,
millennials saw the largest amounts
of growth between 2000 and 2015,
increasing by 16,787 residents
during this period. Millennials
grew at a faster average annual
rate than the population as a
whole between 2000 and 2015,
reflecting rising enrollment at
Colorado State University (CSU).
Our population is getting older.
Despite the larger population
of millennials, our population is
increasingly older. The fastest
rates of growth between 2000
and 2015 were seen primarily
among older age cohorts. The
60 to 64 year old cohort grew
at more than 3x the rate of the
for the population as a whole.
We have fewer families and
fewer children.
Between 2000 and 2015, the
percentage of households that
identified as family households
decreased from 56% to 53%.
Furthermore, families are
increasingly made up of empty-
nesters or couples who do not
have children. Families with
children accounted for 22% of all
households in 2000, dropping
to 13% in 2015. Despite this, the
average family size remained
stable over this period, decreasing
slightly from 3.01 to 2.99 people
per family. Overall, children are a
smaller share of our population.
The population of 10 to 14 year olds
grew by an average annual rate of
just 0.2% between 2000 and 2015.
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Under 5 years
5 to 9 years
10 to 14 years
15 to 19 years
20 to 24 years
25 to 34 years
35 to 44 years
45 to 54 years
55 to 59 years
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
12
Our population is becoming
more diverse.
In 2015, 81% of residents identified
as being white alone, with no
Hispanic or Latino heritage. This
is a smaller percentage than in
2010 when 83% of residents fell
into this category. In addition,
the population under 18 was
even more diverse that year, with
just 65% identifying as white.
Growing Hispanic/Latino
population.
In 2015, the largest minority
group was Hispanics or Latinos.
That year, 11% of the population
identified as being of Hispanic or
Latino origin compared to 9% in
2000. Far from a uniform group,
66% of residents who identified as
Hispanic or Latino were of Mexican
heritage, 6% were of Puerto Rican
heritage, and 2% were of Colombian
heritage. The remaining 26% of
the Hispanic or Latino population
had origins in a range of other
countries in the Caribbean, Central
America, and South America.
13%
22%
40%
34%
25%
26%
22%
18%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2015
2000
Percent of All Households
Household Composition
Fort Collins, 2000 and 2015
With children under 18
With no children under 18
Family Households
Living alone
Not living alone
Non-Family Households
�a�ial��t�ni� �o�position
Fort Collins, 2010 and 2016
2010
Hispanic/Latino (10%)
White (83%) Asian (3%)
Black (1%) Other (3%)
2016
Hispanic/Latino (13%)
White (79%) Asian (3%)
Black (2%) Other (3%)
OUR AGING POPULATION
Despite a growing population, large number of
students, and relatively low median age, the number
of Fort Collins residents over the age of 65 is growing.
Between 2000 and 2015, the entire population grew
at an annual average rate of 2.1% while age groups
older than 65 largely grew at faster rates. For example,
the number of residents between the ages of 65 and
74 grew at 4.7%, increasing from 3.8% of the entire
population to 5.6% during this period.
Estimates for the growth of particular age groups are
only available for Larimer County, but Fort Collins is
likely to see similar trends. According to the Colorado
State Demography Office, the population of Larimer
County will increase at an average annual rate of
1.4% between 2018 and 2050, while age groups over
65-years old will largely grow at faster rates. As shown
in the chart above, the rate of growth for these age
groups will vary over this period.
While initially, rates of growth will remain high for
populations in the 65-74 and 75-84 age cohorts,
rates of growth will begin to slow over the coming
decade, even dropping below zero, before increasing
again in approximately 2032 and 2042, respectively.
However, the sustained growth of residents 85 and
over is notable, as this age group is estimated to see
rates of growth in excess of that for the population
as a whole throughout most of the coming 30 years.
This age group is typically most in need of long-term
care and other specialized services. Expanding these
and other services used by older adults will be a key
consideration moving forward if we are to maintain a
good quality of life for our residents and support their
ability to remain in Fort Collins as they age.
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Fort Collins, 2000-2015
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Larimer County, 2018-2050
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��� P�P ���� -2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Rate of Change
Rate of Population Change
Larimer County, 2018 - 2050
65-74 75-84 85+ ALL POP
Setting the Stage | Demographics
13
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
14
Household income growth
has stagnated.
The median income for a Fort
Collins household in 2015 was
$55,650. While it would appear
that the median household incomes
increased from $44,459 in 2000,
the median income actually
decreased once the 2000 median
income is adjusted for inflation. In
2015 dollars, the median income for
a household in 2000 was $61,600,
almost $6,000 more than in 2015.
Household incomes vary by the
race/ethnicity of householders.
Although the median household
income for all households was
$55,650 in 2015, household incomes
varied depending on the race of
the household. Households with
White households (not of Hispanic
MEDIAN HH INCOME
2015
$55,650
MEDIAN HH INCOME
2000 (IN 2015 $)
POVERTY & $61,600
OFF-CAMPUS
STUDENTS
Measuring poverty in Fort Collins
can be challenging given the
presence of a large student
population. Since students
generally do not have time
to be enrolled in a university
full-time and have a full-time
job, many earn incomes that
would qualify them as living in
poverty. However, this is not quite
accurate since some (although
not all) receive financial support
from their school and/or their
parents to help them cover
living expenses incurred while
attending school. While on-
campus students are not included
in poverty measures, those living
off campus are counted, inflating
the poverty rate in Fort Collins as
measured by the US Census.
To account for this, the US
Census provides estimates of
poverty rates excluding students
living off-campus. The Census
estimated that 13.5% of students
in Fort Collins lived off-campus
in 2016. When they are included
in poverty measures, the rate
15
Setting the Stage | Demographics
or Latino origin) had a median
income of $57,562 while median
incomes for non-white racial
and ethnic groups ranged from
$53,906 for American Indians/
Alaskan Natives to $41,700 for
Blacks/African Americans.
More of our residents are
living in poverty.
The rate of residents living in
poverty has increased from 14% in
2000 to 17.8% in 2016. Excluding
students living off-campus, the
poverty rate was estimated to
be approximately 10.1% in 2016.
Estimates for poverty excluding
students are not available for 2000,
but are available for 2011. In that
year, 11% of residents, excluding
students, were living in poverty.
Educational attainment
varies by race/ethnicity.
The majority of our population 25
and over has a secondary degree
or more; however, educational
attainment varies significantly
among different racial and ethnic
groups. For example, 55% of Whites
(not of Hispanic or Latino origin—
the majority of the city’s residents)
had received a bachelor’s degree
or higher in 2015, compared to 27%
of Hispanics or Latinos (the city’s
largest minority group). Similarly,
rates of residents without a high
school diploma were highest among
minority populations, particularly
Hispanics and Latinos (20%).
Hispanic and Latinos 25 and over
account for 10% of this age group
citywide, but account for 42% of
residents with less than a high
school diploma, and 5% of residents
with a bachelor’s degree or higher.
BACHELOR’S DEGREE
OR HIGHER
52%
SOME COLLEGE,
NO DEGREE
20%
HIGH SCHOOL 14% ONLY
NO HIGH SCHOOL
DIPLOMA
4%
Max Educational Attainment
Fort Collins, 2015
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
16
HEALTH & EQUITY
INDEX
The Health & Equity Index
was developed by the Larimer
County Department of Health
and Environment, and combines
a range of indicators measuring
health and social equity across
all Census block groups in Fort
Collins. A total of ten indicators
were used to create the index
score, seven addressing equity
and three addressing health:
Equity Indicators
• Population under 18
• Population over 65
• Households at or below the
federal poverty level
• Hispanic/Latino population
• Non-white (minority)
population
• Households without a vehicle
• Disability status
Health Indicators
• Adult obesity
• Adults with no leisure time
physical activity
• Adults who experienced poor
mental health for more than
14 days
Scores were assigned to each
block group for each indicator
on a scale of 0 to 10 based on
that block groups decile ranking
among all block groups in the
city (for example a block group
located in the 7th decile was
given a score of 7). All scores
were added together for a final
score that ranges from 0 to
100, with 100 indicates block
groups with the greatest share
of vulnerable or disadvantaged
populations.
17
Setting the Stage | What Does it Mean for City Plan?
What Does it Mean for City Plan?
Growing population
A growing population means that City Plan will need to provide guidance on where and how our
community will accommodate between 69,000 and 70,000 additional residents over the next 20 years.
This includes considerations for the types of housing the plan should encourage, the transportation
system we will strive to develop, and the services and amenities the City will need to provide in the
future. A growing population also has implications for the City’s climate action goals; more people
generally means more greenhouse gas emissions. Balancing growth with efforts to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions will be essential if we are to remain on track to meet our goal of being a carbon neutral
community by 2050. The implications of regional growth will also need to be considered in the City
Plan process. Although the City has little control over how and where growth occurs outside of its
planning area, these decisions are likely to have impacts on Fort Collins residents. For example, more
people living in the region could lead to greater volumes of commuters traveling into Fort Collins,
adding vehicles to our transportation system and increasing our output of greenhouse gases.
Adapting to our changing population.
A number of demographic trends examined in this section of the report will influence the kinds of
services and programs the City might need to or want to provide in the future. For instance, the growth
in residents over the age of 65, coupled with the decline in families with children and slow growth
in residents under the age of 19 suggest that the City may need to begin tailoring its programs and
services towards seniors, and may not need to provide as many programs and services for youth as it
did in the past (not that it would stop providing these services altogether). As our population continues
to become more diverse in the future, the City may need to change the way it provides information to
residents or seeks input during public engagement processes. While the U.S. Census Bureau estimates
that there is only a small percentage of residents who do not speak English well, it may be necessary
for the City to begin providing materials in other languages (such as Spanish), for example. Additional
focus may need to be given towards the kinds of events and programming sponsored by the City, with
an eye towards increasing the representation of cultures, religions, and other minority groups so that all
residents feel like welcomed, valued, and celebrated members of the community.
Promoting equity.
Different aspects of equity have been highlighted throughout this chapter. As illustrated, who you are
and where you live in Fort Collins can place you on a different path than a resident from a different
background or part of the city. While City Plan alone cannot solve issues of inequality, the update
process should look at potential updates, additions, or other changes to the plan through the lens of
equity to ensure that policies do not have disparate impacts on one group over another. As our city
becomes increasingly diverse, it will be important to understand the barriers facing certain groups
or neighborhoods (whether they be related to poverty, health, employment, educational attainment,
etc.) to ensure all residents have access to the services, resources, and opportunities they need to lead
happy and successful lives.
18
FOCUS AREA #1:
BUILDOUT &
LAND SUPPLY
Photo: City of Fort Collins
18
19
S ince the first iteration of City Plan was adopted
in 1996, the City of Fort Collins has promoted
a compact development pattern by encouraging
higher densities in infill and redevelopment areas,
preserving environmentally sensitive areas and rural
lands, and providing efficient public services. The
presence of the City’s Growth Management Area
(GMA) and successful partnerships with Larimer
County and surrounding jurisdictions have helped
to reinforce these objectives and ensure that parks,
open space, and agricultural land play an important
role in the city’s overall land use pattern. Although
the GMA boundary has helped reinforce the city’s
infill and redevelopment focus over time, most
residential and non-residential development that
occurred over the past decade occurred outside of
areas currently targeted for infill and redevelopment
in City Plan.
Vacant buildable land within Fort Collins and its
Growth Management Area (GMA) is becoming in-
creasingly scarce. If current development trends con-
tinue, the city will exhaust its supply of buildable land
by 2040. However, the available supply of residential
land should be more than enough to meet the needs
for our expected 2040 population, particularly when
redevelopment opportunities are taken into account.
As we look to the future, it is important to consider
how we might best use the limited supply of vacant
land that remains to meet our future needs and to
support the development of the types of places
residents would like to see in our community. De-
sires for open space, less traffic, and preserving the
suburban character of residential areas will need to
weighed against other desires and goals, such as
becoming a carbon neutral community, discouraging
sprawl, and supporting the development of afford-
able and workforce housing.
19
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
20
Where We Are Today
Residential development trends
have fluctuated significantly.
Trends in residential development
in Fort Collins have fluctuated
since 2000. Permits peaked in
2001 and bottomed out in 2009
during the Great Recession. Since
2010, residential development
has been trending upward, with
strong years seen in 2013 and
2016. However, since 2009 9,000
new residential units were built
in Fort Collins compared to 11,237
between 2000 and 2008.
Housing built today is
increasingly diverse.
Since 2000, single-family units as
a share of total units built have
been declining. Between 2000 and
2008, single-family units (both
attached and detached) accounted
for 63% of all residential units built.
In comparison, single-family units
accounted for 44% of all units built
between 2009 and 2017. Overall,
55% of the dwelling units built since
2000 have been single-family units.
Commercial development hasn’t
returned to pre-recession levels.
Commercial development activity
between 2000 and 2017 peaked in
2001 (with 94 projects permitted
by the City) before declining to
just 16 projects permitted in 2009.
The average number of projects
permitted between 2009 and
2017 was around half the number
permitted between 2000 and 2008.
Distribution of Existing Land Use
Fort Collins & GMA, 2017
City Limits
30%
29%
12%
8%
6%
6%
4% 3%
2% 1%
City & GMA
25%
17% 29%
7%
6%
6%
3%
3%
Focus Area #1: Buildout & Land Supply | Where We Are Today
21
Existing Land Use
Fort Collins, 2017
Vacant
Other
Industrial
Public/Quasi-Public
Agriculture
Parks, Natural Areas, and Open Space
Low-Density Residential
Medium- & High-Density Residential
Commercial
Mobile Homes
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
22
Recent development has
occurred primarily at the city’s
periphery.
Between 2000 and 2017, the
majority of new residential
development occurred on vacant
land in areas at the periphery of
the city. New development during
this period included a number
of large subdivisions, such as
Westchase, Fossil Lake, Registry
Ridge, and Ridgewood Hills.
Only a small portion of recent
development has been in areas
targeted by City Plan.
City Plan identifies Targeted Infill
and Redevelopment Areas within
Fort Collins where the city would
focus on reducing barriers to infill
and redevelopment and concentrate
investments in infrastructure.
However, only 22% of the residential
units built in Fort Collins since
2012 (the first full year following
the adoption of City Plan) were
located in one of these areas.
Even fewer (6%) of commercial
projects were built in one of
these areas during this period.
Recent Development Activity
Fort Collins, 2000 - 2017
1
2
3
5
6
7
8
4
Type of Development
City Plan Development Areas
Single-Family Detached
Single-Family Attached/Multifamily
Commercial
Mixed-Use
Activity Centers
Targeted Redevelopment Areas
Downtown
Colorado State University
North College
East Mulberry Corridor
Campus West
Foothills Mall
Midtown Corridor
Harmony Corridor
1
2
3
Focus Area #1: Buildout & Land Supply | Where We’re Headed
23
Where We’re Headed
Vacant land is a small portion of
the GMA.
There remains approximately
6,900 acres of vacant buildable
land remaining within Fort Collins
and its Growth Management Area
(GMA). This represents 14% of the
GMA. Of this vacant land, 62%
of the acreage is located within
the city limits, with the remaining
2,600 acres located in the GMA.
Our supply of vacant land is
decreasing.
There were approximately 9,580
acres of vacant land in the GMA
in 2008, 2,680 more acres than in
2017. This represents a loss of 298
acres per year during this period.
Should this trend continue, the city
will exhaust its supply of vacant
land by 2040, the planning horizon
for this update to City Plan.
Land supply is constrained by
natural hazards.
Of the 6,900 acres of vacant
buildable land, nearly 21% are
constrained by flood hazards
and/or geologic hazards.
The majority of vacant land is
zoned for residential uses.
Approximately 60% of vacant
buildable land in the city’s GMA is
zoned for some sort of residential
use. In all, the vacant land could
support the development of 25,736
housing units. Under existing
zoning, 36% of these units would be
low-density housing types (under
5 du/ac), 37% would be medium-
density housing types (5-20 du/
ac), and 27% would be high-density
housing types (over 20 du/ac).
The majority of non-residential
vacant land is zoned for
commercial uses.
Vacant land within the city
and GMA could support up to
21,866,543 square feet of non-
residential development. The
majority (44%) of this development
could support for employment
uses. An additional 6,883,950
square feet of commercial/mixed-
use development and 5,270,194
square feet of industrial uses
could be built on vacant land. Potential for more supply
through redevelopment.
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
24
Redevelopment is likely
to produce higher-density
housing.
Of the 2,700 dwelling units
that could be created through
redevelopment, the majority
(43%) would be high-density
housing (greater than 30 du/ac)
types based on current zoning.
Little potential for industrial
redevelopment.
Non-residential development that
occurs on these redevelopment
parcels will mainly be commercial
or mixed-use in nature. Of
the 3.7 million square feet of
development that might be
supported on these parcels, just
11% would support industrial uses.
Residential capacity is likely
sufficient for future growth.
In 2017, there were approximately
75,230 dwelling units with Fort
Collins and its GMA. An additional
5,770 units have been approved
and/or are under construction.
Factoring in the supply of housing
units available on vacant buildable
land and through redevelopment,
the total units available at full
buildout would be approximately
106,114 units. Assuming the average
household size remains at 2.37
persons per dwelling units, this
supply of housing could support
approximately 252,970 residents.
This is around 16,000 to 17,000
more residents than is forecast
to live in Fort Collins by 2040.
However, this analysis does not
consider more specific needs of
households based on their incomes,
life-stages, etc. which could result
in shortage of certain kinds of
housing (e.g., high-density housing)
Characteristics of Development Potential
Fort Collins & GMA
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Commercial Square Feet (Vacant Lands)
Commercial Square Feet (Infill/Redevelopment)
Employment Square Feet (Vacant Lands)
Employment Square Feet (Infill/Redevelopment)
Industrial Square Feet (Vacant Lands)
Industrial Square Feet (Infill/Redevelopment)
Distribution of Non-Residential Development Capacity by Use
6.9 million
Square Feet
9.7 million
The Road Ahead...
25
Focus Area #1: Buildout & Land Supply | Where We’re Headed
[The page intentionally blank.]
26
FOCUS AREA #2
HOUSING ACCESS
Photo: City of Fort Collins
26
27
T he demographic composition of Fort Collins is
diversifying. As shown previously, household
sizes are decreasing, there is an influx of younger
residents, the existing population is aging into re-
tirement, there are fewer families with children, and
the ethnic composition of residents is diversifying as
well. All of these trends are expected to continue over
the coming decades. As a result, the composition of
demand for housing in Fort Collins will undoubtedly
shift. Some of these shifts are being driven by diver-
sifying preferences from younger residents wanting
housing walkable to jobs, retail, and entertainment
and from older residents who no longer have kids
and the desire and/or ability to maintain their single
family detached home.
As well, the economic growth of the City and quality
of life is attracting more, higher paying jobs and more
new residents to fill these jobs. Housing construction
has not been keeping up with growth (at least in the
City of Fort Collins). As a result, housing prices have
grown steadily over the past 5 to 10 years. These
pressures have made housing affordability an ever
important issue as the City tries to ensure the ability
for residents of all economic status and income to
live and work in Fort Collins.
27
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
28
Where We Are Today
Our supply of housing has
grown...
There were 66,689 housing
units in Fort Collins in 2016, an
increase of nearly 18,930 units
since 2000. This 2% annual
rate of growth matched closely
with that seen in all of Larimer
County over this same period.
...but not as quickly as our
supply of jobs.
Since 2010, the rate of job growth
in Larimer County as a whole has
out-paced the rate of housing
development. Between 2010
and 2016, the county saw jobs
increase by an annual average
rate of 3.2%, while the number
of housing units increased by
just 1.3% over this same period.
Housing vacancy rose slightly.
Since 2000, the number of vacant
housing units in Fort Collins has
grown. However, the rate of vacancy
has grown only slightly, increasing
from 3.9% in 2000 to 4.4% in 2016.
Fewer young people own
homes.
While overall the number of
household who rent their homes has
increased in Fort Collins, this shift
has been much more pronounced
among householders younger
than 34. Between 2000 and 2016
the number of householders in
this age group who owned their
home dropped from 28% to 20%.
This 8% shift was much greater
than the 4% shift seen for all age
groups over this same period.
Rates of homeownership
greatest among older residents.
Across all age groups,
approximately 57% of households
lived in homes that they owned.
However, there is significant
variation in rates of homeownership
within different age groups.
Only 20% of householders
under 35 owned their homes
in 2016 compared to 70%
of householder over 35.
Our mix of housing today is
similar to 2000.
Despite shifting demographics,
the mixture of housing types
(defined by the number of units in
Focus Area #2 Housing Access | Where We Are Today
29
Rents are also increasing.
During the third quarter of 2017,
the average monthly apartment
rental rate in Fort Collins was $1,310.
This marks an increase from 2000
when rental rates were $658, nearly
half of rents today. The annual
rate of growth in monthly rents
was similar to that seen for for-
sale housing, increasing at a rate
of 4.1% between 2000 and 2017.
Our rental market continues to
be tight.
The vacancy rate of apartments
in Fort Collins during the third
quarter of 2017 was 3.7%.
Generally, economists consider
vacancy rates below 5% to be
indicative of a tight rental market.
Vacancy rates have been below
5% in Fort Collins since 2009.
60
80
100
120
140
160
Changes in Home Prices and Rents
Fort Collins, 2000 - 2017
Average Home Sale Price
Values Indexed, 2000 = 100
Average Apartment Rental Rate
61%
73%
80%
76%
80%
84%
80%
70% 70%
62%
52%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Share of homes sold aordable to
median income households
Housing Opportunity Index
Fort Collins, 2007 - 2017
25%
34%
6% 6%
22%
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
30
Housing is becoming less
affordable.
Overall, housing has become
less affordable in Fort Collins.
Among all households, 38%
spent more than 30% of their
incomes on housing costs in 2016
compared to 34% in 2000.
Renters are feeling the crunch
more than homeowners.
Housing affordability varies
considerably by tenure type. In
2016, 59% of renter households
paid more than 30% of their income
towards rent compared to just
17% of owner households. Indeed,
the incidence of owner household
paying more than 30% of their
income towards rent decreased
since 2000, but increased for renter
households over this same period.
Gap between median incomes
and median home sales prices.
In 2015, the median household
income was $55,650. With this
income, the median household
could afford a home of
approximately $199,900. However,
the median home price in 2015
was $302,000, a gap of over
$100,000. This gap has widened
since 2015, as the median home
price has grown to over $350,000.
Focus Area #2 Housing Access | Where We’re Headed
31
Where We’re Headed
Demand for housing will
exceed supply.
A forecast of future housing
demand was completed as part
of the City Plan update process
to better understand the demand
for different housing types among
different types of households by the
year 2040. The demand forecast
found that population growth will
result in demand for approximately
30,480 additional housing units
by 2040. This is about 2,000 more
units than the 28,440 units that
could be built on vacant buildable
land or through redevelopment
in Fort Collins. However, this does
not hold true for all housing types.
There looks set to be a surplus of
around 4,200 medium-density
units, while low-density and
high-density housing are likely to
have shortages of around 3,700
and 2,500 units, respectively.
Demand will be greatest for
low- and high-density housing.
Demand for low-density (5 du/
ac and under) and high-density
(20 du/ac and over) housing will
account for around 45% and 35%
of the additional demand for
housing by 2040, respectively.
The remaining 20% of units
demanded are estimated to be
medium-density housing types
(between 5 and 20 du/ac) such as
duplexes, townhomes, and small
condo or apartment buildings.
High-density housing will make
up a larger share of our housing.
If the supply of housing follows
estimated demand, the share of
housing that is a high-density
housing type will increase.
In 2016 approximately 10%
of housing units were high-
density. This share is expected
to increase to 18% by 2040.
Fewer young people will
own homes.
Following the trend observed
over the past two decades, the
share of younger households
(under 35) is estimated to
decrease between today and
2040. Rates of homeownership
for households in all other age
32
FOCUS AREA #3:
ECONOMIC HEALTH
Photo: City of Fort Collins
32
33
T he economic strengths of Fort Collins are aligned
with the identity of the City. Home to Colorado
State University and at the base of the Rocky Moun-
tains, Fort Collins is a community rooted in quality
educational options and natural assets and amenities
that promote and encourage a healthy lifestyle. The
two largest industries in Fort Collins, Education and
Health Care, reflect these major assets. These assets
that have produced an educated workforce and a
high quality of life have historically attracted large
employers in manufacturing and technology to lo-
cate in the City.
Fort Collins is also the center of a growing region
as the County Seat of Larimer County. Significant
growth in the region and along the Front Range of
Colorado over the past 20 to 30 years has shifted
economic activity within Northern Colorado, creating
multiple economic centers. This increased regional
competition is both a threat to economic opportu-
nities but also a growing opportunity to promote the
region as major destination for a variety of employers
and workers.
As the City looks to promote a healthy and sustain-
able economy routed in its community values, City
Plan will have to address emerging issues new to the
region. Threats to the City’s economic health include
growing impacts of climate change, the regional and
national competition for employers, workers, and
funding for education. As well, as the City reaches the
edges of its growth boundary, the areas needed to
support economic growth are limited and harder to
develop either due to a lack of infrastructure, compli-
cations with redevelopment, and/or existing physical
constraints.
33
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
34
Where We Are Today
The economies of communities
in the region are increasingly
intertwined.
Fort Collins is the largest city
(in terms of population) and
economy (in terms of jobs)
along the northern Front Range.
While in the past, cities in our
region (Fort Collins, Loveland,
and Greeley) have functioned as
stand-alone communities with
distinct economies, they and
their economies are increasingly
intertwined. As a result, economic
activity has shifted somewhat away
from traditional downtown/city
centers towards I-25.
Health care is the largest
industry in our county.
Larimer County has a total
employment of 153,103 as of
2016. The largest industries in
Larimer County are Health Care
(21,111 jobs), Retail Trade (18,582
jobs), Accommodation and Food
Service (18,175 jobs) and Education
(17,295 jobs). Combined these four
industries account for half of the
jobs in Larimer County.
County employment growth
has been steady.
Over the past 20 to 30 years,
the County has grown steadily
in employment with periods of
accelerated employment growth.
Employment in the County grew by
4.5 percent annually from 1990 to
2000. The two national economic
recessions (01) and (08-09) that
occurred from 2000 to 2010
reduced the rate of employment
growth in the County to 0.8 percent
annually. Since 2010 however, the
County has begun to grow at a
faster rate (3.2 percent annually
from 2010 to 2016), producing more
new jobs annually in this period
than in the 1990’s.
Largest growth seen in health
care.
The traditional major industries in
the County (Health Care, Retail,
Food/Accommodations, and
Education) continue to experience
strong employment growth. The
industries with the largest amount
of employment increase since 2010
Focus Area #3: Economic Health | Where We Are Today
35
Our local economy remains
grounded in healthcare and
education.
The City of Fort Collins is home
to over 85,000 jobs. Traditionally,
the economy has been driven
by education and health care.
Combined these two industries
accounted for over 27,000 jobs
in 2016. However, the City has a
long history of entrepreneurship
and development of new ideas
and products that serve not just
residents but the nation and the
world. As a regional hub for retail
and entertainment, jobs in these
industries (retail trade and food
service and accommodations) are
major component of the city’s
economic base.
Growing number of jobs.
Fort Collins has a growing number
of employment opportunities
available to residents and other
workers in the region. Employment
in the city grew by approximately
10,000 jobs between 2010 and 2015.
Service providing industries
dominate our employment
opportunities.
Of all employment in Fort Collins
during 2015, 82% of was in
industries that provide a service. In
contrast, industries that produce
goods accounted for 12% of
employment (up from 10% in
2010). Public administration (i.e.,
government) rounded out the
remaining 6%.
Jobs are growing faster than
housing.
Between 2010 and 2015, the number
of jobs in Fort Collins increased by
15%. During this same period, the
number of housing units increased
by 8%. As such, the ratio of jobs to
housing increased from 1.18 in 2010
to 1.25 in 2015.
Average Wages for Selected Industries
Larimer County, 2016
$44,125 $47,498
$27,855
$18,022
$82,669 $82,796
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
36
Primary industries are the
largest component of our
economy.
Industries in Fort Collins are divided
into three categories: Target and
Other Primary Industries, Business
Support Services, and Community
Support Services. Of these, jobs in
Target and Other Primary Industries
account for 45% of all jobs in the
City, followed by 36% in Community
Support Services and 19% in
Business Support Services.
Industry specializations.
The largest industries in Fort Collins
are also the industries that the City
has higher concentrations of as
compared to the State of Colorado.
Education and Manufacturing have
location quotients of 2.0 and 1.5
respectively, which means they
have higher concentrations of
employment in Fort Collins than in
the State of Colorado. Fort Collins
has much lower concentrations of
Wholesale Trade and Transportation
and Warehousing, as these
industries have location quotients
of 0.4 and 0.2, despite the growing
number of jobs in these industries
in Larimer County.
Wages are growing.
Wages in Larimer County have
grown by 5.9% annually over the
past six years, indicating that even
when accounting for inflation,
wages are growing significantly.
The City’s six largest industries have
a wide variety of average annual
wages, with some much higher than
average and some well below the
County average.
2.0
1.5
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
37
Focus Area #3: Economic Health | Where We Are Today
COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
The City accounts for the majority of commercial and
industrial space in the County including nearly 70% of
the office space in Larimer County. However, over the
past 10 years the City has been capturing a decreased
share of new commercial and industrial development.
Neighboring communities have been able to attract
and develop competitive job and retail centers, primar-
ily centered along I-25. As the labor force has become
more interconnected within the region, I-25 has grown
in importance and the market has responded. The City
of Fort Collins has not made the same proactive efforts
to grow along I-25. The City of Fort Collins captured
45 to 46% of office and retail development since 2007,
and only 34% of industrial space. The declining capture
illustrates this growing competition from neighboring
communities for new development.
The job growth in the past five to seven years has been
driving demand for spaces for businesses to locate.
Vacancy rates for office, retail and industrial space in
the City and Larimer County are low and in most cases
indicating demand for new development. This is espe-
cially true for office and industrial space in Fort Col-
lins, with vacancy rates near 3%. Average rental rates,
however, for office and industrial are equal to or less
than the county as a whole, which may indicate that
the City’s inventory of spaces are not as attractive as
elsewhere in the county.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fort Collins Larimer County
Fort Collins Larimer County
Inventory
Average Rents
$16.05 $22.11
$19.53 $18.51
$9.44 $9.36
3.7% 4.7%
6.0% 3.5%
3.1% 6.8%
New Development
2007 - 2017
Vacancy Rates
Oce
7.6 million sq ft 840k sq ft 1.0 million sq ft
1.5 million sq ft
620k sq ft 1.2 million sq ft
11.3 million sq ft 1.7 million sq ft
12.0 million sq ft 9.5 million sq ft
8.5 million sq ft
3.4 million sq ft
Retail
Industrial/Flex
Oce
Retail
Industrial/Flex
Oce
Retail
Industrial/Flex
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
38
Where We’re Headed
Job growth will continue.
It is estimated that employment
in Larimer County will grow at an
annual rate of 1.9%, adding over
85,000 jobs between 2015 and
2040.
Rate of job growth will continue
to exceed housing growth.
As in previous years, the rate of job
growth is expected to exceed the
rate of housing growth. By 2040,
the ratio of jobs to housing will
be around 2.55. This trend is likely
to result in businesses depending
ever more on in-commuters from
surrounding counties to meet their
employment needs.
Target and other primary
industries will see largest
growth.
Of the three industry sectors,
employment in Larimer County will
increase most in target and other
primary industries, both in absolute
terms (37,621 jobs) and in terms
of annual average rates of growth
(2% per year). Within this sector,
job growth will be greatest for
Hospitals and Health Providers.
Land demand forecast.
In addition to employment
estimates, a forecast of non-
residential land demand was
estimated as part of the City Plan
update process.
Demand greatest for
commercial/mixed-use land.
Employment growth will result in a
future demand for approximately
12.8 million square feet of
commercial/mixed-use land (retail
and office space), the greatest
demand among the three land use
types forecasted.
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
Target and other Primary Industries
Business Support Services
Community Support Services
Job Growth Forecast
Larimer County, 2016 - 2040
2016 2040
Focus Area #3: Economic Health | Where We’re Headed
39
Supply of non-residential
development capacity does not
match demand.
At full build-out, there is likely to
be a shortage of land zoned for
non-residential uses. Looking to
the supply of land, approximately
25.5 million square feet of non-
residential development is possible
on vacant buildable land and
through infill/redevelopment. This
is about 500,000 square feet less
than the 26 million square feet of
development that will be demanded
in 2040.
Shortages are expected for
commercial/mixed-use and
industrial development.
Looking at specific uses, there
appears to be a surplus of
employment lands in Fort Collins.
However, shortages of commercial/
mixed-use and industrial
development are expected. The
largest shortage is in commercial/
mixed-use development, with a
mismatch of over 2.9 million square
feet.
Land Demand Forecast
Fort Collins, 2016 - 2040
49%
30%
21%
Commercial/Mixed-Use
Total Demand:
26 million square feet
Employment Industrial
0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000
Commercial/
Mixed-Use
Employment
Industrial
Employment Supply and Demand
Fort Collins, 2017 - 2040
2040 Demand 2040 Supply
28k square feet
shortage
2.9 million square feet
shortage
2.5 million square feet
surplus
40
FOCUS AREA #4:
TRANSPORTATION &
MOBILITY OPTIONS
40
41
T ransportation and mobility in Fort Collins are
quickly evolving in order to meet the city’s vi-
sion and adapt to changes in technology. Recent
previous planning efforts have identified ambitious
goals for the city to reduce greenhouse gas emis-
sions, improve safety for all modes, and reduce single
occupancy vehicles through quality multi-modal in-
frastructure, and service and programmatic improve-
ments. Adoption of these plans and implementation
of their recommended prioritized projects have re-
sulted in improvements in the transportation network
since the 2011 Transportation Master Plan. However,
there are vision areas in which the city needs to focus
resources in order to address major transportation
gaps that remain or have emerged since 2011.
Continuing these trends of improved bicycle and
pedestrian facilities, increased transit coverage and
frequency, and a focus on safety into 2040 will re-
quire careful attention in the updated Transporta-
tion Master Plan. A number of external factors taking
place locally, regionally and nationally will also im-
pact how transportation metrics in Fort Collins trend
into the future. For example, the increase of Trans-
portation-as-a-Service due to quickly evolving tech-
nology, the sharing economy, and big data means a
decrease in private vehicle ownership but potential
induced trips, dead head time, and shift from alter-
native modes.
The city needs to consider these influencers of travel
behavior—land use, technology, demographic shifts,
infrastructure, and economic drivers—when recom-
mending policies, programs and capital projects as a
part of the Transportation Master Plan.
41
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
42
Where We Are Today
Mobility
75% of commuters are driving
alone.
Only 14% of commute trips are
taken by transit, biking, walking,
taxi or motorcycle.
Consistent average travel time
between 2011 and 2016.
Travel time on six major corridors
changed slightly in both directions,
averaging out to no change.
Commute trips outside Ft
Collins are primarily to the
south.
Over 50% of interregional trips to/
from Ft Collins are by those who
are traveling between their home
to the south of the city and work in
the city.
Population growth outpaced
VMT increase.
76% 10% 8% 4% 2%
�o�t �ollins �o�e ��a�e
��� ��en�s in �o�t �ollins
�i�y�le �a�ilities
�i�e�al�s
HIGH
COMFORT
designated EXISTING
bike facilities
total
bike
boulevards
94mi
877mi
ATTACHED
(no buer)
(60% of existing sidewalks)
47mi 515mi
designated
bike facilities
bike
boulevards
117mi
4mi
4mi
LOW
COMFORT
CYCLIST
MILES OF ON-STREET FACILITIES
Source: American Community Survey 2011-2015
Source: City of Fort Collins Trac Operations Department
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
College Avenue from
Harmony to Mulberry
2016 2011
Taft Hill Road from
Focus Area #4: Transportation & Mobility Options |
43
Commute Patterns
Fort Collins, 2015
Bicycle and Pedestrian
Over 250 miles of on-street bike
facilities.
On-street bike facilities are
categorized as either high comfort
or low comfort based on number of
travel lanes, traffic speed, vehicle
volumes, and type of bicycle facility
present. Almost half of facilities, or
121 miles, are low comfort. The city
also has 97 miles of paved shared
use trails.
Fort Collins has a bike share
program with hourly, weekly,
annual, and student
memberships.
91 BIKES
DOCKS 21 FC
�o�t �ollins �o�e ��a�e
��� ��en�s in �o�t �ollins
�i�y�le �a�ilities
��ans�o�t �nnual �i�e�s�ip
HIGH
COMFORT
designated EX
bike facilities
bike
boulevards
94mi
47mi
designated
bike facilities
bike
boulevards
S College Avenue
between Harmony Road
and Laurel Street
Major Shared
Use Paved
Minor Shared
Use Paved
117mi
4mi
4mi
68mi 29mi
LOW
COMFORT
CYCLIST
PROHIBITED
MILES OF TRAIL
MILES OF ON-STREET FACILITIES
Source: American Community Survey 20
Source: City of Fort C
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
College Avenue from
Harmony to Mulberry
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
44
40% of sidewalks are missing or
too narrow.
Transit
Transfort runs 22 fixed routes
and 2 paratransit services.
The MAX route provides Bus Rapid
Transit (BRT) service every 10
minutes. Transfort also operates
the HORN (the CSU on-campus
shuttle) and the FLEX (regional
service to Loveland, Berthoud,
Longmont and Boulder six days a
week).Transfort also offers Dial-A-
Ride Paratransit service and Dial-A-
Taxi service for eligible users.
Other public and private
transportation services operate
in the region.
CDOT runs the Bustang, providing
service to Loveland and Denver 7
times a day. There has also been
a rise of privately owned shuttles
operated by apartments, senior
homes, or ride hailing companies.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
��ans�o�t �nnual �i�e�s�ip
Fort Collins, 2000-2016
S College Avenue
between Harmony Road
and Laurel Street
Major Shared
Use Paved
Minor Shared
Use Paved
4mi
68mi 29mi
CYCLIST
PROHIBITED
MILES OF TRAIL
�nnual ��ans�o�t
�i�e�s�ip in �o�t �ollins
2016 2011
+90%
�o�t �ollins
Population ��o�t�
2016 2011
+12%
Source: City of Fort Collins
Source: City of Fort Collins Source: City of Fort Collins
Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins
MISSING
EXISTING
BUT NOT
ADA
COMPLIANT (25% of ex
217m
221mi
1,000,000
Focus Area #4: Transportation & Mobility Options |
45
Ridership increased
dramatically after MAX opened.
From 2013 to 2016, ridership
increased by 78%, during which
time the population increased by
only 7.5%. This is largely due to the
opening of MAX in 2014. Transfort
also made changes to routes and
service frequency, improving
reliability for CSU students and
faculty.
MAX, routes 31 and 3 have the
highest productivity.
The MAX provides frequent and
rapid service connecting several
activity centers throughout the
city. Route 31 and route 3 directly
connect the CSU campus to Rams
Village.
Routes 31 and 3 provide 10-15
minute headways, but end their
service at 6PM. Route 32 also
provides service connecting Rams
Village and CSU throughout the day
and into the evening when route 31
and route 3 are no longer operating
but due to its loop configuration
and longer headways between
buses, this route is less desirable
and has significantly lower ridership
and productivity.
Increase in passengers per
revenue hour.
Productivity rose in 2014 with a
25% increase in revenue hours due
to the opening of MAX and increase
in frequencies and hours for several
other routes. Transfort improved
both ridership and productivity.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
��ans�o�t �nnual �i�e�s�ip
Fort Collins, 2000-2016
boulevards
ATTACHED
(no buer)
(60% of existing sidewalks)
47mi 515mi
designated
bike facilities
bike
boulevards
S College Avenue
between Harmony Road
and Laurel Street
Major Shared
Use Paved
Minor Shared
Use Paved
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
46
Transit peak travel time and
reliability ID weak segments.
Segments of roadway with
disproportionately high PM peak
travel time include Harmony Road
from Shields Street to Ziegler Road,
Horsetooth Road from McClelland
Dive to Timberline Road, Shields
Street from Horsetooth Road to
Prospect Road, and the intersection
surrounding Lemay Avenue and
Prospect Road.
Reliability was poor for areas along
Harmony Road, College Avenue
north of downtown, Lincoln Avenue
between 9th Street and Timberline
Road, and Mulberry Street between
Timberline Road and I-25.
Safety
Crashes decreased in 2016 but
fatal crashes increased.
In 2016, the city joined the Colorado
Department of Transportation’s
(CDOT) Moving Towards Zero
Deaths initiative. The city’s fatal
collision rate is among the lowest in
Colorado and peer cities nationally,
however, there were still 4,348
traffic crashes in 2016. Eighty
percent of these crashes resulted
with no injury (property damage
only), but there were eight fatalities.
Rear end collisions make up 44%
of all crashes and almost half of
the recorded crashes occurred at
signalized intersections.
The number of crashes increased
from 2012 to 2015 with a decrease
in 2016. However, fatal injuries
increased from 4 to 8 between 2015
and 2016.
��ans�o�t P�o�u�ti�ity �y �oute
Route
Passengers
31 3 MAX 2 32 HORN 8 14 18 7 81 19 6 9 10 5 16 12
�ll ��as�es �u��a�y
Number of All Crashes
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Fatality
Focus Area #4: Transportation & Mobility Options |
47
Bicycle and pedestrian crashes
disproportionately result in
severe injury.
Pedestrian and bicycle crashes
account for 4.8% of all crashes, but
account for 32% of severe crashes.
Almost 90% of
crashes involving bicyclists occurred
at intersections. Bicycle crashes
trended downwards from 2012 to
2015, but increased in 2016.
Pedestrian crashes account for 1%
of all crashes, but more than 8% of
severe crashes. Pedestrian crashes
are trending upward and 87% of
crashes involving pedestrians result
in some level of injury or fatality.
About half of all pedestrian crashes
are due to motorists failing to yield
at a signalized intersection, un-
signalized intersection, or driveway.
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
48
Where We’re Headed
Mobility
Future shifts in commuters
driving alone in not known.
The mode share of single
occupancy vehicles (SOV) in Fort
Collins is affected by local and
regional trends. Demographic shifts,
including an increasing percent
of retirees and growing CSU
enrollment, translate to a decrease
in car ownership and vehicle miles
traveled. There is an increasing
reliance on the shared economy for
transportation, including car share,
bike share, ride share and carpool;
this shift to Transportation-as-a-
Service results in a decrease in
SOV due to a decrease in private
vehicle ownership, as well as data
and platforms that pair riders with
similar destinations. However, other
trends into the future may lead to
an increase in SOV. An increase in
same day home delivery means
induced shopping and delivery
of singular items. Autonomous
vehicles is another factor that may
result in induced travel, longer trips
and zero occupancy vehicles due to
the reduction of travel time costs
and stress.
Travel time on major corridors
will change based on multi-
modal priorities.
As a layered network that prioritizes
different modes along different
corridors is implemented, travel
times will shift. Some major
corridors—where biking, walking or
transit are prioritized—may see an
increase in travel time for vehicles
due to changes in the number
of general travel lanes, signal
timing, and traffic calming devices.
However, other corridors, where the
automobile is prioritized, may see a
decrease in travel time.
Employee commuting patterns.
Employee commute patterns into
and out of Fort Collins will be
shaped by a number of factors—the
implementation of land use and
transportation projects in addition
to emerging mobility trends and
technologies. Land use changes
that will influence travel patterns
include the availability of affordable
Focus Area #4: Transportation & Mobility Options | Where We’re Headed
49
Bicycle and Pedestrian
Expansion of bicycle and
pedestrian infrastructure.
The 2014 Bicycle Plan identifies
a goal of achieving 20% of Fort
Collins’ residents commuting by
bicycle by 2020. This includes a
pilot program for protected bike
lanes and 80 percent of residents
living within ¼ mile of a high
comfort facility.
The 2011 Pedestrian Plan
recommends a prioritized list of
81 projects including sidewalk
gap closures, crossing treatments
and grade separated pedestrian
crossings. The Plan also identified
level of service standards and
identified an updated map
of pedestrian priority areas
throughout the city where a higher
level of service is required.
Transit
Increased ridership and
improved reliability.
If Fort Collins and Transfort
continue to invest in transit
infrastructure and services in-
line with recent investments in
MAX, expand their partnership
with CSU, and increase regional
connections, it is expected that the
recent upward trajectory in transit
ridership will continue into the
future.
The Transfort Strategic Operating
Plan recommends long-term
changes to the transit network
including the transition to a grid
network that provides greater
route coverage, higher service
frequencies, and longer span of
service. Refinement of local routes
to coordinate with MAX is also
recommended and will result in
increased ridership. If land use
changes take place concurrently
with transit service improvements
and first last mile strategies are
implemented as previous planning
efforts recommend, the reach of
transit routes will be expanded, and
ridership will increase.
Expansion of transit markets.
The transit market is expected
to expand due to recommended
increases in density and land use
mix, transit oriented development,
50
FOCUS AREA #5:
CLIMATE
ACTION PLAN
IMPLEMENTATION
Photo: City of Fort Collins
50
51
F ort Collins was an early adopter of efforts to
reduce community-wide greenhouse gas emis-
sions (GHG) at the local level. The City adopted initial
goals to reduce GHG emissions in 1999, followed by a
more comprehensive Climate Action Plan in 2008. In
2015, the City adopted more aggressive goals and a
concrete strategy as part of the Climate Action Plan
(CAP) Framework, making a commitment to reduce
GHG emissions by 80 percent below 2005 levels by
2030, and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
Since 2015, the City has engaged staff and leadership
throughout the city organization in efforts to imple-
ment key initiatives, leading the way for other local
governments across the country. These efforts have
centered on achieving the City’s near-term goal of
reducing GHG emissions by 20 percent below 2005
by 2020.
51
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
52
Where we are today
Overall emissions have
decreased since 2005.
We are more than halfway to our
2020 goal. As of 2016, the City’s
GHG emissions were down 12%
(a net reduction of 275,813 Metric
Tons) despite a 25% increase in
population and a growing economy.
This translates to a 28% reduction
(or 5 metric tons) per capita
since 2005. However, emission
attributable to natural gas and
water-related uses increased.
4%
�our�e o� �reen�ouse �as �m�ss�ons
Fort Collins, 2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ground travel emissions come from
the combustion of fuel, primarily
gasoline and diesel, within the City’s
Growth Management Area (GMA).
Ground Travel
Emissions are produced from the
combustion of natural gas, primarily
for heat.
Natural Gas
Estimated emissions from the
decomposition of biodegradable
waste (e.g., food waste) in the landfill.
Solid Waste
Emissions from electricity use are
caused by fossil fuel combustion.
Most of our electricity is generated
by coal and hydropower, with a small
amount from natural gas, and
increasing amounts of renewable
wind and soalr resources.
Electricity
Emissions related to the collection,
treatment, distribution, and
reclamation of water.
Water-related
51%
25%
19%
4%
0.3%
Focus Area #5: Climate Action Plan Implementation | Where we are today
53
Zero net carbon energy may be
closer than we thought.
By 2020 the City is aiming for 20%
of our energy to be produced from
wind and solar resources and to
limit coal resources to no more than
60%. A study by the Platte River
Power Authority (PRPA) found
that a zero net carbon energy
portfolio for Estes Park, Fort Collins,
Longmont, and Loveland could be
achieved by 2030. If realized, it
will contribute significantly to the
City’s goal of an 80% overall GHG
reduction by 2030. Increasing
electrification, including the use of
electric vehicles and electric heat
pump systems to displace natural
gas consumption, would continue
to drive down emissions towards
the 80% reduction goal.
64%
19%
14%
2% 1%0.5%
�ner�� �esour�e ���
Fort Collins, 2016
Coal Hydro Wind Purchases Solar Gas
GHG EMISSIONS IN
FORT COLLINS
How does the City track GHG
emissions?
The City tracks emissions annu-
ally through a community car-
bon inventory. The inventory uses
2005 as a baseline year and fol-
lows standard protocol to quanti-
fy GHG emissions including CO2,
CH4, N2O. The inventory fluctuates
from year-to-year as we experi-
ence the impacts of weather, get
access to better data, or learn
something new about how GHGs
impact the atmosphere. The City
makes the results of this inven-
tory available through its climate
dashboard.
What are GHGs
Greenhouse gases (GHG) are gas-
es in the atmosphere that can
absorb and emit heat. Science at-
tributes a warming of the Earth’s
atmosphere to an increase in
GHGs.
What is CO2e?
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a GHG
emitted naturally and from fossil
fuel combustion for energy and
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
54
NATURE IN THE CITY
The City of Fort Collins has been committed to protecting natural areas
and habitats within the City and region for more than forty years. In
2015, the City adopted the Nature in the City Strategic Plan with the
vision of providing a connected open space network accessible to the
entire community that provides a variety of experiences and functional
habitat for people, plants, and wildlife. Much more than a tradition-
al parks and open space plan, Nature in the City was developed with
the City’s projected buildout population of 230,000-250,000 in mind.
It stresses the importance of creating, retaining, or reclaiming natural
elements and systems within the urban core, not just in public parks
and open spaces, but as part of established neighborhoods and fu-
ture developments. Consistent with other City plans, this vision will
be accomplished through a triple-bottom-line approach considering
benefits and impacts of environmental, economic, and social variables.
Nature in the City identifies three priority goals:
1. Easy access to nature, high quality natural spaces. Ensure every
resident is within a 10-minute walk to nature from their home or
workplace
2. High quality natural spaces. Conserve, create, and enhance natural
spaces to provide diverse social and ecological opportunities.
3. Land stewardship. Shift the landscape aesthetic to more diverse
forms that support healthy environments for people and wildlife
Ongoing implementation of Nature in the City directly supports the
City’s CAP goals by enhancing the natural systems that store and se-
quester carbon and providing other environmental co-benefits such
as improved air and water quality and reduced water, fertilizer, and
pesticide use. Nature in the City plays a critical role in linking the City’s
climate, health, and equity goals.
Cross-Cutting Benefits
Strategies that reduce GHG
emissions often have the potential to
create multiple benefits across City
goals, ranging from improved local
economy, human health and well-
being, ecological health, community
resiliency, and affordability and
equity. Strategies should be
considered and implemented with
these cross-cutting impacts in mind
to maximize the potential benefit
and avoid focusing on single benefit
solutions. The following are some
examples that illustrate this:
• Reducing land use for single
occupancy vehicles (parking and
driving lanes) can reduce GHG
emissions while allowing for
increased green space (habitat),
walkability (human health, equity),
air quality (human health, equity).
• Local foods create local jobs,
reduce emissions associated
with factory farming and
transportation, and promote
healthier eating.
• Electric vehicles, in conjunction
with a decarbonizing grid,
Focus Area #5: Climate Action Plan Implementation | Where We’re Headed
55
Where We’re Headed
In the past few years, a pathway to a zero carbon City has started to take shape. With the electrical grid moving to-
wards increased levels of renewable energy capacity, and the associated carbon emissions falling accordingly, there
are a variety of choices that will need to be considered as part of the City Plan update from a CAP and GHG perspec-
tive. These choices, and their associated trade-offs, will be driven by the extent to which we pursue the following:
Carbon neutrality.
Continued push towards a Zero
Carbon / 100% renewable grid,
supporting the utility effort with
distributed renewable resources
across the City.
Greater electrification.
Electrification of everything, from
vehicles to home heating, with
battery storage to manage grid
reliability.
Sustainable building practices.
Continued push towards aggressive
building efficiency targets and
programs targeting the existing
building stock.
Transportation innovations.
Increased shift to shared services
like car share, ride share, bike share,
and eventually a shift towards
autonomous vehicles, changing
our ideas of “public transit” and
enabling greater electrification of
the transportation sector and a
reduction in land use for mobility.
Increased density.
Increasing densities along
Enhanced Travel Corridors to enable
the shared economy, walkability,
and preservation of land for green
space.
Waste reduction.
Pursuing zero waste goals, as
increasing amounts of the waste
stream can be composted or
recycled.
Outlook to 2050.
Based on recent trends, we have
the potential to reduce GHG
emissions to the 80% mark by
2030, in a manner that is cost
competitive with the business-as-
usual scenario. However, this goal
is only achievable if City Plan lays
the groundwork for doing so, in
line with the cross-cutting benefits
described above.
56
KEY CHOICES FOR
THE THE ROAD
AHEAD...
Photo: City of Fort Collins
56
57
T he information provided in this report will be
used to help inform Phases 2 and 3 of the City
Plan update process: Community Visioning and
Scenario Development. Over the coming months, we
will be asking the community to consider a variety
of key choices for the road ahead. This section artic-
ulates a series of key choices for each of the focus
areas to get the conversation started. Key choices
take into account:
• Major drivers. Population projections, land
supply, housing and employment demand, drive
our plans for the future, but so do community
preferences and desired outcomes.
• Plan inputs. Although both qualitative and
quantiative inputs will need to be considered
as part of the scenarios discussion, key choices
are focused primarily on inputs the City Plan
can directly influence and inputs we can “test”
in light of the major drivers above. For example,
how can we most efficiently accommodate
future population growth based on our land
use patterns, transit service, housing types/
location, and transportation alternatives (origins-
destination patterns)?
• Potential tradeoffs. Advancing our vision in one
focus area may have unintended consequences in
another focus area. A critical part of the scenarios
discussion will be consideration of the types
of tradeoffs the community is willing to make.
Housing affordability, neighborhood impacts,
commuting/jobs-housing balance, traffic and
parking system implications, ridership, GHG,
water conservation, energy efficiency, and equity
and health implications.
Ultimately, we’ll need to determine a preferred direc-
tion for the future that recognizes the interdependent
economic, social, and enviornmental implications of
our policies and decisions.
57
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
58
As we approach buildout, we must carefully consider
how we will make use of our remaining land, and how
we will can maximize the potential of underutizlied
areas. Some of the many questions we must
explore as we consider the road ahead include:
• Infill/redevelopment priorities. To what degree
are we willing to direct higher-intensity infill and
redevelopment to targeted areas? If so, where
should such development be encouraged and at
what intensities? What tools should we use to
encourage redevelopment?
• Structure Plan map. What changes to the structure
plan map (and zoning code) are we willing to make
to ensure the supply of land is sufficient to meet our
future needs?
• Land use/transportation integration. How can
we encourage a land use pattern in the future that
allows us to maximize investments made to our
transportation systems? Where might investments
in transportation be best utilized to help us meet
our Climate Action Plan goals? What modes of
transportation are best able to serve different types
of places in our city?
• Neighborhood character. What aspects of Fort
Collins make it “Fort Collins”? How can we preserve
these characteristics at the same time we encourage
redevelopment? What types of development
are we not willing to permit in certain areas or
neighborhoods?
Our housing stock has grown, but still lags behind
job growth, leading to fewer opportunities for people
employed in Fort Collins to live here. At the same time,
the price of housing is increasing faster than increases
in incomes. As a result, there are fewer and fewer
affordable housing opportunities available for a larger
share of the population. Some of the many questions
we must explore as we consider the road ahead include:
• Higher-density housing. Are we open to
encouraging higher-density development in Fort
Collins to create more capacity and opportunities for
housing, specifically affordable housing? If so, where
and how?
• Housing diversity. Should we encourage a greater
varity of housing options? If so, what tools or
approaches should we use? What types of housing
should we encourage (e.g., accessory dwelling units,
single-family homes on small lots)? What types
should we try to limit (if any)?
• Affordable housing. Are we willing to devote more
resources to the creation of affordable housing
units? What affordability level(s) should we target?
Should we focus on homeownership, rental housing,
or both?
• Housing capacity. Are we willing to convert
employment or industrial designated lands to
residential uses in order to expand our housing
capacity? If so, where?
Focus Area #1:
59
Key Choices for the The Road Ahead...
Vacant land for non-residential development
may not be sufficient to meet future needs.
Some of the many questions we must explore
as we consider the road ahead include:
• Economic development. How proactive are we
willing to be in promoting economic development?
Should we invest resources in addressing
infrastructure issues (e.g., lack of water/sewer)
within portions of the GMA to support new
development? Should we develop incentives to
attract retail in order to maintain and/or grow our
tax base?
• Job diversity. Should we try to attract a wide
variety of job types in order to maintain economic
opportunities for all residents, or focus our efforts on
certain types of jobs in certain industries?
• Lands for future employment. Are we willing to
accept the loss of employment designated land in
order to increase the capacity for housing and/or
other uses that help us acheive our goals for the
future? What about land designated for industrial
development? Or should we preserve such lands
and continue to restrict secondary uses (such as
residential)? Should we embrace development along
I-25 in order to create more areas for economic
growth?
• Regional collaboration. How involved should we be
in regional economic development efforts? What
about efforts that would mean promoting other
communities in the region ahead of our own?
• Jobs-housing balance. Are we willing to accept
that a greater portion of our workforce will have to
commute into Fort Collins for work? Or should we
encourage development of certain types of housing
at certain affordability levels so that more workers to
live in Fort Collins?
Adopting new approaches to transportation
planning and operations can allow us to make
the most efficient use of limited transportation
resources. In addition, technological innovations
and new forms of transportation may alter the way
we travel. Some of the many questions we must
explore as we consider the road ahead include:
• Modal priorities/layered network. Which corridors
in Fort Collins are best suited for biking, walking,
transit, or vehicular traffic? What are the tradeoffs
associated with prioritizing one mode over the
other? How can we align best transportation
investments with land use?
• Emerging mobility trends. How should we
approach autonomous vehicles, transportation
network companies (like Uber and Lyft), and other
innovations? How should we manage these trends
and new technologies to ensure they are integrated
into our existing transportation system?
• Level of service methodologies. Are reductions in
vehicular level of service (LOS) acceptable along
corridors in exchange for supporting other modes
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
60
Many of the near-term Climate Action Plan (CAP)
initiatives focus on making changes at the municipal
and services provider level. As we approach our
2020 CAP targets and look ahead to our 2030
targets, the community preferences captured in
City Plan will shape the next generation of CAP
initiatives. Some of the many questions we must
explore as we consider the road ahead include:
• Density vs. affordability. Are we willing to accept
higher-density development in more areas of the
of the city in exchange for more affordable housing
options that encourage transit usage? If so, where?
• Transit investments. Are we willing to invest in the
expansion of our MAX system and other transit
options in other Enhanced Transit Corridors (e.g.,
Harmony or College)? If so, what types and where?
• Emerging mobility trends. To what extent should
we be proactive in regulating and managing
autonomous and shared vehicle services to avoid
unintended consequences that are antithetical to our
broader community goals?
• Built environment. Are we willing to support
advanced building energy codes and address the
existing building stock, and encourage the increased
shift to electricity, and the intergration of renewables
and green infrastructure into the built environment?
• Electric vehicle infrastructure. Are we willing to
create the electric vehicle infrastructure needed
to support the electric vehicle growth needed to
reduce transportation emissions to meet our CAP
goals?
Focus Area #5:
Climate Action Plan
Implementation
61
Key Choices for the The Road Ahead...
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REPORT CARD
Photo: City of Fort Collins
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63
The City of Fort Collins is committed to continu-
ous improvement. As we embark on this update to
City Plan, it is important to step back and assess our
progress—since the last update in 2011, but also since
City Plan was first adopted in 1997. This section high-
lights our successes over the past twenty years, the
challenges we face, and opportunities we see for im-
provement in each of the principle and policy sec-
tions found in City Plan:
• Economic Health
• Environmental Health
• Community and Neighborhood Livability
• Safety and Wellness
• Culture, Parks, and Recreation
• High Performing Community
• Transportation
These sections generally align with the seven Key
Outcome Areas reflected in the City Council’s Strate-
gic Plan and the city’s Budgeting for Outcomes pro-
cess. This alignment reflects the city’s longstanding
commitment to the community of fostering account-
ability and transparency. This Report Card draws from
the outcomes and measures tracked on the city’s
Community Performance Measurement Dashboard,
discussions with City staff and stakeholders, and the
many department strategic plans and functional plans
that support implementation of City Plan on an on-
going basis. Grades in each section reflect, at a high
level, the degree to which progress is being made on
major implementation initiatives in each area.
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City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
64
ECONOMIC HEALTH
Principles and policies in this outcome area support a healthy and resilient economy. This section is
supported by the 2015 Economic Health Strategic Plan.
GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES
Economic Development - Economic Resiliency
Successes:
• The city has met or exceeded targets on
a variety of economic health performance
metrics in recent years, including: local un-
employment rate, lodging occupancy rates,
net percent change in local jobs, and new
commercial permit dollar volume per capita.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• To date, buildout has primarily been looked at from
a residential standpoint. Buildout for employment
uses should be considered as part of future growth
scenarios and updated policies to guide the posi-
tioning of remaining land.
• The overall mix of industrial versus employment
uses, and general commercial/retail uses versus
mixed-use development must all be considered,
along with the viability of designated land for these
purposes with respect to access and infrastructure
needs.
• The affordability of doing business and of living
in Fort Collins is an attribute that will impact eco-
nomic resiliency. As land and housing prices grow,
affordable options for all businesses and residents
will need to be addressed.
Economic Development - Growth of the Innovative Economy
Successes:
• The city has created a culture and business
environment that supports innovation. Part-
nerships with CSU and non-profits, as well
investments in incubator spaces, such as
Innosphere, have leveraged R&D activities
that are creating new local businesses and
produces one of the highest rates of patents
produced per 10,000 residents in the US.
• The facilities and partnerships that foster re-
search and development activities, coupled
with an attracted talent pool has large, na-
tional and international companies funding
research in Fort Collins.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• While there are many new businesses being formed
in the city and local jobs are growing, there is a
need for spaces for these companies to grow into.
Limited vacancy in the industrial market and a lack
of new Class A office space development may lead
companies to look outside of Fort Collins to ex-
pand. An assessment of areas currently designated
for future employment growth is needed to deter-
mine whether they have the attributes needed to
attract employers.
• The design and formats of modern workspaces
have placed a greater emphasis on collaboration
and proximity to other companies, entertainment,
Report Card
65
GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES
Economic Development – Support for Local and Creative Businesses
Successes:
• The City of Fort Collins has been a sponsor
of arts and culture through investments in
programs and facilities, such as the Lincoln
Center, which help to grow and promote cre-
ative businesses in Fort Collins. Its support
has diversified into promoting a wider vari-
ety of creative spaces (e.g. Carnegie Build-
ing, Southeast Creative Community Center).
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• As new businesses grow in the community they
need support in a variety of ways and the city of-
fers limited support programmatically. The city can
expand its efforts to support small businesses with
more program efforts and capacity to provide sup-
port.
• Efforts to create a Creative District in Fort Collins
which will help to continue to support and promote
the arts and Culture.
Economic Development – Redevelopment Areas
Successes:
• The Midtown Planning and implementation
efforts have led to the redevelopment of
Foothills Mall and reinvestment in Midtown
after many years of planning.
• The recently completed Downtown Plan was
adopted in 2017 and provides the needed
updates to the city’s strategies for continued
growth of downtown.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Development in Targeted Infill/Redevelopment Ar-
eas like Midtown does not reflect the mix of uses/
intensity supported by adopted plans and policies.
Economic Development – Regional Economic Development
Successes:
• The city, its regional partners involved in
economic development, and local business-
es leaders have started efforts to create a
unified approach to promoting the region
for economic growth. The Northern Colora-
do Economic Alliance was formed in 2014 by
business leaders to develop a collaborative
approach to attracting primary businesses
and industries to Northern Colorado.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• A unified, regional vision for economic growth has
not been established for this new regional collabo-
ration. The City of Fort Collins can lead in creating
the vision.
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66
ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH
Principles and policies in this outcome area address a wide range of topics to support the protection
of the city’s environmental resources, and draw from dozens of supporting plans and policies, includ-
ing the Environmental Services Strategic Plan (2016).
GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES
Environmental Stewardship and Resource Conservation on Private Lands
Successes:
• Adoption of the Nature in the City Strategic
Plan (2015) reinforced the importance of
open space and habitat on private land as
part of the city’s overall system
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Integration of open space, conservation, and biodi-
versity principles as part of future development on
remaining greenfield sites within the GMA, as well as
part of future infill/redevelopment.
Open Lands
Successes:
• The city’s Natural Areas Program has
conserved over 40,000 acres of land since
1992.
• Ongoing conservation efforts are focused
on the Local and Community Separator
Focus Areas—a key companion to the city’s
Growth Management Area (GMA).
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Integration of 10 minute walk to nature goal (Nature
in the City) as part of City Plan growth scenarios and
subsequent Structure Plan/policy updates.
• Updates to City Plan policies throughout to reinforce
Nature in the City objectives.
Energy
Successes:
• Energy conservation programs and incen-
tives have resulted in an increase in local
renewable energy production and expand-
ed customer support for conservation
• Adoption of stronger codes and standards
to support conservation and renewable
energy use
• Though work with the Platte River Power
Authority (PRPA) and other partners in the
region, the city is continuing to diversify
its energy portfolio and reduce reliance on
coal and other fossil fuels.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Some energy policies in City Plan lag behind current
City initiatives in terms of innovation/best practices.
• Ongoing work is needed to reach the city’s long-
term net zero energy goals
• Stronger policy emphasis is needed in City Plan to
improve the community’s preparedness and resil-
ience in the face of changes in climate, weather, and
resource availability.
Report Card
67
GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES
Air Quality
Successes:
• In 2016, the city worked with its partners
to develop a Regional Air Quality Tool for
monitoring/planning purposes.
• The city continues to target reductions in
local source contributions to ozone causing
pollution (e.g., vehicles and lawn and gar-
den equipment), and participate in regional
planning for State regulations of transport-
ed emissions (e.g., oil and gas)
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• External forces, such as wildfires, have had a nega-
tive impact on outdoor air quality multiple times in
recent years.
• Fort Collins’ ground-level summertime ozone levels
continue to be the highest along the Front Range.
• An update to the city’s Air Quality Plan is underway
and will be coordinated with updates to City Plan
policies in this area.
Climate Change
Successes:
• Adoption of Climate Action Plan (CAP)
Framework in 2015, with the commitment
to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
• Significant progress being made toward
CAP implementation; close coordination
among City departments on CAP initia-
tives.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Broader community conversation about the poten-
tial trade-offs between CAP goals and other com-
munity goals (e.g., land use, transportation, equity,
housing) needed as part of the City Plan process.
Waste Resources Management
Successes:
• Fort Collins currently diverts about 58
percent of its waste stream as a result of
recycling, composting, and waste reduction
efforts and incentives.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Waste diverted to the Larimer County Landfill con-
tinues to increase, and the landfill is approaching
capacity. Consideration of future landfill siting op-
portunities as part of City Plan growth scenarios/
policies is needed (particularly as they relate to CAP
goals)
• Ongoing work is needed to reach long-term net zero
waste goals within the community and the city or-
ganization; stronger emphasis on priority initiatives
is needed in City Plan policies
Stormwater and Flood Management
Successes:
• Improvements made and regulations im-
plemented as the city recovered from the
1997 floods have made the city more resil-
ient; damage from the 2013 floods along
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
68
GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES
Water Resources
Successes:
• The city has had formal policies in place to
guide the acquisition, development, and
management of the city’s water supplies
since 1988 (last updated in 2012), and has
fostered a strong conservation ethic within
the community and City organization.
• The city actively works with regional part-
ners, municipal providers, local irrigation
companies and others on water issues.
• The city has consistently been in full com-
pliance with applicable effluent quality
requirements.
• The NFRMPO is in the process of updating
its Traffic Model to allow for consideration
of water supply when modeling the im-
pacts of future growth.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Multiple water districts serve the GMA, but only one
is controlled by the city. Requirements for water
rights and costs vary by district, raising concerns
about housing affordability, infrastructure capacity,
and other considerations.
• City Plan growth scenarios and subsequent Struc-
ture Plan map/policy updates need to reflect this
multi-district dynamic, and be reviewed against the
city’s 2012 Water Supply and Demand Management
Policy.
Poudre River Corridor
Successes:
• Improvements made and regulations im-
plemented as the city recovered from the
1997 floods have made the city more resil-
ient; damage from the 2013 floods along
the Front Range was minimal in Fort Collins
when compared to that sustained by other
communities.
• The city recently completed a river assess-
ment and Report Card for the Poudre River
to help the city evaluate operational, man-
agement, and policy options for preserving
or enhancing the river’s health.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Integrate Nature in the city’s comprehensive biodi-
versity goal, and recommendations from the State
of the Poudre River Assessment as part of City Plan
growth scenarios and subsequent Structure Plan/
policy updates as appropriate.
Report Card
69
Principles and policies in this outcome area guide the growth and development of the city. Core
values reflected in this section include the community’s longstanding commitment to a compact
land use pattern within a well-defined boundary. The Structure Plan map and supporting principles
and policies are also contained in this section and address distinctions in use and character between
different types of places in the community.
COMMUNITY AND NEIGHBORHOOD LIVABILITY
GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES
Growth Management
Successes:
• The city has IGAs in place with Larimer County
and surrounding jurisdiction to support the
implementation of Growth Management Area
(GMA) objectives related to compact develop-
ment and an interconnected system of open
lands.
• Community separators were established with
Wellington and Loveland on the heels of initial
GMA policies in 1997.
• Presence of the GMA boundary has helped
reinforce City Plan’s infill and redevelopment
focus over time.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Some adjustments to the GMA are pending for
the I-25 Corridor, raising questions as to how
flexible the boundary is intended to be.
• In coordination with Larimer County, the city has
been working to annex remaining county en-
claves in accordance with an existing IGA. Upon
annexation, the city is obligated to serve these
areas with utilities. One of the largest remaining
enclaves includes large portions of the East Mul-
berry Corridor. A more in depth analysis of util-
ities, fiscal impacts, and land use/transportation
considerations will be necessary, and will occur
independent of the City Plan process. However,
the broad impacts and opportunities associated
with the annexation of this area should be con-
sidered in the context of the City Plan process—
particularly as it pertains to the future of existing
service districts and the potential for regional
partnerships as a way to expand the city’s service
provision capabilities in underserved areas.
Infill and Redevelopment
Successes:
• Based on adopted policies and targeted
infrastructure investments, the city has seen
significant infill/redevelopment in Targeted
Infill/Redevelopment Areas (primarily within
Downtown and near CSU).
• Infill compatibility standards adopted as part
of 2012 Land Use Code amendments
• Updated detention requirements for rede-
velopment adopted in 2013 to provide more
flexibility for infill/redevelopment.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• There is a general lack of alignment between the
Structure Plan map and the Land Use Code in Tar-
geted Infill/Redevelopment Areas; as a result the
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
70
GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES
Housing
Successes:
• The city has pursued a range of strategies
to expand affordable and workforce housing
options, as informed by the 2014 Housing Af-
fordability Policy Study and 2015-2019 Afford-
able Housing Strategic Plan.
• The city is an active participant in an ongoing
regional housing dialogue sponsored by the
Fort Collins Board of Realtors—NoCo Hous-
ing Now—to identify approaches to address
housing affordability and promote regional
collaboration on housing issues.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Although supported by current City Plan policies,
accessory dwelling units (ADUs) are not allowed
in most zoning districts.
• Despite efforts to address affordable housing,
housing prices and rental rates continue to grow
a fast pace. As well, employment growth con-
tinues to outpace housing growth which adds
pressure to the housing market and also has in-
creased the amount of in commuting. A balanced
plan for growth is needed to ensure mis-matches
in development trends do not continue to exas-
perate affordability issues.
• Despite strong policy support, diversification of
the city’s overall mix of housing types has been
slow. Most new housing built over the last decade
has been single-family detached, or single-fami-
ly attached/multifamily in the 15-30 du/ac range.
High density multifamily (greater than 30 du/ac
has been less prevalent in areas where it is de-
sired (e.g., Mason Corridor).
• Rising home costs are of increasing concern in
the city and region. A more in-depth evaluation
of housing demand and supply is needed to en-
sure the updated plan is aligned with the commu-
nity’s housing needs, and to determine whether
there are new strategies or tools that should be
considered.
Community Appearance and Design
Successes:
• The city adopted Streetscape Standards and
Gateway Design Standards in 2013 to ensure
public spaces—streets, medians, parkway
strips, and I-25 corridor gateways— contribute
to Fort Collins’ distinct identity.
• Numerous streetscape improvement projects
have been implemented.
• The city has consistently met or exceeded
voluntary code compliance and response time
to graffiti removal targets in recent years.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Concerns frequently arise from residents when
larger projects emerge that seem out of context,
but are in fact consistent with the plan. More em-
Report Card
71
GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES
Historic Preservation
Successes:
• The city adopted design guidelines for the Old
Town Historic District (2014), River Downtown
Redevelopment Zone District (2014), and Old
Town Neighborhoods east and west of Down-
town (2017) to guide infill and redevelopment
and maintain the historic character of these
areas.
• Work is currently underway on code updates
to further address transitions between Down-
town and adjacent neighborhoods.
• The city has worked to update and streamline
policies and procedures that guide the review
of historic properties.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• The Historic Preservation program’s foundational
plan (an element of City Plan) was last updated
in 1996; policy guidance provided as part of the
Community and Livability section is minimal.
• Strengthen policy foundation for historic pres-
ervation and adaptive reuse as part of Structure
Plan place types, and other policy sections (e.g.,
economic health).
Noise Pollution Mitigation
Successes:
• The city has increased enforcement in areas
prone to high levels of noise and party com-
plaints; resulting in a lower number of com-
plaints in 2017, than in prior years.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Continued focus and proactive effort is needed
on reducing the number of complaints, especially
with the off-campus student population.
• Continued focus is needed on efforts to reduce
train horn noise along the Mason Corridor.
Structure Plan Map
Successes:
• Key themes that informed the creation of the
original Structure Plan in 1997 are firmly em-
bedded in City plans and policies throughout
the organization and remain valid today.
• Although the overall mix of land uses has
shifted somewhat, the city’s land use frame-
work is generally consistent with what was
envisioned in 1997. In particular, the city’s
“green” infrastructure—the Poudre River Cor-
ridor, and open spaces/community separators
have consistently been implemented.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Some Structure Plan concepts have been more
difficult to implement (e.g., neighborhood cen-
ters and mixed housing types) than others, lead-
ing to questions about market viability and other
potential barriers. The overall mix of land uses
depicted on the Structure Plan map needs to be
reviewed and adjusted to reflect evolving trends
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
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SAFETY AND WELLNESS
Principles and policies in this outcome area support a safe community and promote community
wellness through opportunities for residents to lead healthy and active lifestyles and support for
expanded production of and access to healthy and local foods. One of the key successes in this Out-
come Area was the creation of the city’s Department of Social Sustainability in 2012, which promotes
healthy, diverse, equitable, accessible community values. The department has completed additional
work since then—including a Social Sustainability Strategic Plan, Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis,
and Human Services Partners Community Snapshot to help inform City policies and programs in this
area.
GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES
Community Safety
Successes:
• The city has met or exceeded targets on a va-
riety of economic health performance metrics
in recent years, including: local unemployment
rate, lodging occupancy rates, net percent
change in local jobs, and new commercial per-
mit dollar volume per capita.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• To date, buildout has primarily been looked at
from a residential standpoint. Buildout for em-
ployment uses should be considered as part of
future growth scenarios and updated policies to
guide the positioning of remaining land.
• The overall mix of industrial versus employment
uses, and general commercial/retail uses versus
mixed-use development must all be considered,
along with the viability of designated land for
these purposes with respect to access and infra-
structure needs.
Community Wellness – Support for Healthy and Active Lifestyles
Successes:
• Placeholder - added based on the equity infor-
mation provided by staff
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Strengthen equity considerations related to
healthy and active lifestyles in the vision, princi-
ples, and policies.
• Expansion of Safe Community Outcome Area
performance metrics to include health and well-
ness considerations—building on those estab-
lished as part of the Social Sustainability Plan.
Community Wellness – Healthy and Local Food Access
Successes:
• Updated land use code to ensure urban agricul-
ture is allowed in every zone district in the city.
• Adopted a policy that defines parameters for
appropriate agricultural activities—grazing,
crop production, and community gardens—on
lands managed by the Natural Areas Program
• Ongoing partnerships with community or-
ganizations to support the development and
maintenance of community gardens
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Strengthen equity considerations related to
healthy and local food access in the vision, prin-
ciples, and policies.
• Expansion of Safe Community Outcome Area
Report Card
73
Principles and policies in this outcome area support diverse arts and cultural experiences, and parks
and recreation opportunities to meet the needs of a changing community. This chapter is supported
by a number of supporting plans and policies.
GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES
Arts and Culture
Successes:
• Visits and participation at the Lincoln Center
and Museum of Discovery have consistently
met or exceeded targets since 2015.
• The city’s Art in Public Places program has
been in place for 20 years and is going strong.
Dozens of new installations have either been
recently completed, or are currently under-
way.
• Created an arts and culture directory to
provide information and inspiration as to how
artists might be of service in the community.
• Recommendations established as part of the
city’s 2008 Cultural Plan have largely been
implemented.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Update City Plan principles and policies as ap-
propriate, based on Arts and Culture Plan up-
date getting underway in 2018.
• Improve low and moderate income citizen ac-
cess to, and participation in, City programs and
facilities (2016 Strategic Plan)
Parks and Recreation
Successes:
• Usage of the city’s paved trails has consistent-
ly met or exceeded targets since 2015.
• Several major new park projects are underway
or nearing completion, including the Poudre
River Whitewater Park, Twin Silo Park, and
Crescent Neighborhood Park.
• Major upgrades to Avery Park were recently
completed and upgrades to City Park and Lee
Martinez Park are in the planning stages.
• The city is actively working with the City of
Loveland and Larimer County to expand re-
gional trail connections.
• Adoption of the Nature in the City Strategic
Plan (2015) reinforced the importance of
access to the overall parks and open space
system.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Integration of 10 minute walk to nature goal
(Nature in the City) as part of City Plan growth
scenarios and subsequent Structure Plan/policy
updates.
• Participation per capita in Natural Areas pro-
grams has declined as a percentage of the pop-
ulation, although it remains strong. Metrics are
currently being reevaluated.
• Strengthen equity considerations related to
parks and recreation access and availability in
the vision, principles, policies, and performance
metrics for this outcome area.
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
74
HIGH PERFORMING COMMUNITY
Principles and policies in this outcome area support transparency and efficiency within the City of
Fort Collins organization, a culture of inclusivity and accessibility, and effective communication.
GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES
An Active and Engaged Community
Successes:
• The city actively partners with numerous ac-
ademic, philanthropic, non-profit, and grass-
roots organizations on a variety of community
initiatives.
• The city has more than 25 citizen boards and
commissions staffed by volunteers for the
purposes of studying and making recommen-
dations to City Council in specific areas.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Incorporate a stronger focus on social equity
and underserved populations as part of out-
reach and volunteer initiatives.
Effective Local Governance
Successes:
• The city has continued to improve its Bud-
geting for Outcomes approach as means to
ensure the services delivered by the city are
efficient and aligned with community priori-
ties.
• The city works collaboratively with others in
the region on policy-setting, service provision,
transportation, and other issues of mutual
significance.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Incorporate a stronger focus on social sustain-
ability in City Plan policies and supporting pro-
grams.
Communications and Technology
Successes:
• The Access Fort Collins platform allows resi-
dents the opportunity to contact the city with
questions, comments, and service requests
and ensure that their inquiry will be routed to
the appropriate team member for follow up.
• The city recently established a new, “one-
stop” web platform for public engagement
(It’sYOUR|MY|OUR FoCO).
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Continued monitoring and refinement of exist-
ing web platforms is needed to ensure they are
achieving intended outcomes.
• City Plan policies should be updated to reflect
current City initiatives and best practices.
• Recommendation to create a Technology Board
to help ensure the city’s technology is accessi-
ble, transparent, and efficient has yet to be com-
pleted.
Report Card
75
TRANSPORTATION
Principles and policies in this outcome area support a safe, efficient, and diverse system of
transportation that provides a range of mobility options to residents, visitors, employees, and
businesses in Fort Collins.
GRADE PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES
Integrated Land Use and Transportation
Successes:
• Identification of pedestrian priority areas
based on activity centers, schools and
transit
• Some transit-oriented development has
occurred along the MAX line
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Broader community conversation about the potential
trade-offs between CAP goals and other community
goals (e.g., land use, transportation, equity, housing)
needed as part of the City Plan process.
• Zoning modifications to reflect high priority transit
corridors
• Modal priorities that reflect surrounding land use
• Improve mandatory implementation of TDM strate-
gies
• Application of Air Quality Manual as part of TIA pro-
cess
Mobility Options
Successes:
• 7% reduction in VMT per capita
• Bicycle Wayfinding Network Master Plan
(2015)
• Bicycle Master Plan (2014)
• Completion of 2 ETC plans promoting bik-
ing, walking and transit
Challenges/Opportunities for improvement:
• 40% of sidewalks are insufficient width or missing
• 3 bicycle and pedestrian fatalities and 8 total traf-
fic-related fatalities in 2016
• ETCs do not identify modal priorities or account for
necessary trade-offs
• Modify operational strategies to incorporate Trans-
portation-as-a-Service
Traffic Flow
Successes:
• Average travel time on 6 major corridors
stayed the same (2011 to 2016) despite
population growth; less than 3 minutes per
mile (Policy T 17.2)
• Completion of Air Quality Manual to deter-
mine GHG implications of transportation
decisions
Challenges/Opportunities for improvement:
• Travel times are unreliable and impacted strongly by
AM/PM peaks
• Application of Air Quality Manual in scenario analysis
• Expand regional mobility options with interjurisdic-
tional transit routes and first last mile strategies
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
76
GRADE PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES
Quality Travel Infrastructure
Successes:
• City to fill in with maintenance stats
• Plowing and sweeping of sidewalks and bike
lanes
Challenges/Opportunities for improvement:
• City to fill in with maintenance stats
• 40% of sidewalks are insufficient width or miss-
ing
• Enforcement of snow removal on sidewalks adja-
cent to residential properties
Increase Awareness
Successes:
• Implementation of the Bicycle Safety Educa-
tion Plan
• Safe Routes to School served 28 Public
schools and 2 non-public schools in 2016
reaching 12,000 students and 2,700 adults
• Joining of CDOT’s Towards Vision Zero
• Community awareness and support of the
Climate Action Plan
Challenges/Opportunities for improvement:
• Endorsement of an all-encompassing trip plan-
ning app
• Increase awareness and policies around TDM
strategies
• Structure TDM program with TDM coordinator
Master Streets Plan
Successes:
• Application of updated classifications in de-
velopment review, development impact fees
and planning transportation connections
• Update the Master Street Plan Classifica-
tion and Larimer County Urban Areas Street
Standards cross-sections to address needs
for urban arterial and “Green Street” con-
cepts as well as other context sensitive de-
sign elements.
Challenges/Opportunities for improvement:
• Develop an overlay map to reflect areas needing
a future “Context Sensitive Solutions”
Report Card
77
GRADE PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES
Transit
Successes:
• Relocation of the new South Transit Center
(STC) with improved amenities
• BRT service on Mason Corridor with modifi-
cations to local feeder routes
• Extension of service hours into early eve-
nings and weekends
• Partnership with CSU including improve-
ment to CSU routes
• New regional FLEX route that serves Ft
Collins, Loveland, Berthoud, Longmont and
Boulder
Challenges/Opportunities for improvement:
• Complete transition to a grid route configuration
• One additional new express routes along the Ma-
son Corridor
• Further expansion of regional routes and service
frequencies
• Address routes not currently meeting service tar-
gets
City Plan | Trends & Forces Report
78
Sources
| Sources
79
81
CITY FORT PLANNING COLLINS OUR FUTURE. PLAN TOGETHER.
1
City Plan Update – Trends & Forces
2.13.18
ATTACHMENT 3
Direction Sought
1. Does Council have input regarding any missing data, research, or
analysis needed as part of the Trends & Forces report?
2. Does Council have any direction on the key challenges and choices
highlighted in the report?
2
3
Overview
Updates to…
Provide a vision and high-level policy guidance
for the next 5-20 years
Comprehensive
Plan
Transportation
Master Plan
Transit
Master Plan
4
Phases & Timeline
Trends & Forces
5
Narrative and visual guide to current conditions
and trends within the community & region
Highlights challenges and choices for road ahead
Data foundation to guide City Plan update
Community
Profile
Buildout &
Development
Housing
Access
Economy &
Employment
Transportation
& Mobility
Climate
Action
Community Profile
6
Key Trends:
• Steady population
growth
• An aging population
• Increasing diversity
• Fewer households
with children
Factors:
- Ages: under 18, over 65
- Poverty
- Non-white population
- Disability status
- Vehicle availability
- Obesity
- Mental health
- Leisure time activity
Health & Equity Index
Less
vulnerable
More
vulnerable
Community Profile
7
Key challenges & choices
Managing continued growth in Fort Collins and the region
Planning for an aging and more diverse population
Ensuring equitable access to services, resources, and opportunities
Buildout & Development
8
Key Trends:
• Vacant lands in GMA
diminishing
• Development activity
transitioning to more
apartments
• Vacant lands shifting
outside City utility
service areas
Vacant Lands in the GMA
2008: 9,600 acres
2017: 6,900 acres
28% decrease
Buildout & Development
9
Key challenges & choices
Values and priorities for use of remaining lands in the GMA
Utility service availability, pricing, and impacts on timing of development
Impacts of growth in nearby communities on mix of land uses in Fort Collins
Updating expectations to accommodate increased infill and redevelopment
Housing Access
10
Key Trends:
• Fort Collins is
creating more jobs
than housing units
• Wages are not
keeping pace with
rent & home prices
• Housing capacity is
insufficient to meet
long-term demand
Housing Opportunity Index, 2007-2017
Share of homes sold that are affordable to a family
earning median income
Housing Access
11
Key challenges & choices
It will be difficult to achieve long-term housing goals given current trends
Fort Collins will import an increasingly larger proportion of its work force
Changes to land use mix to address mismatch of housing supply and demand
SL6
Slide 11
SL6 Is there any conversation about homeownership? ie. du type condo v. apartment?
Seth Lorson, 2/1/2018
Economy & Employment
12
Key Trends:
• Fort Collins capturing
less regional office, retail
& industrial demand
• Steady job growth
expected through 2040
• Constraints approaching
for future office/industrial
development
Nonresidential Development Demand
Economy & Employment
13
Key challenges & choices
Impact of shifting regional demand for retail, office, industrial
Changes to land use mix and evaluating quality of employment/industrial land
Evaluating whether future jobs are suited to our talent and educational mix
Automation, new technologies, and related impacts on businesses and workers
Transportation & Mobility
14
Key Trends:
• Single-occupant vehicle
trips remain the primary
travel choice
• Biking & transit
experiencing strong
ridership growth
• Commuting to/from the
region is increasing
Fort Collins Transportation Mode Share
Single Occupancy Vehicle: 76%
Carpool: 10%
Bicycle, Taxi, Motorcycle: 8%
Walking: 4%
Transit: 2%
Transportation & Mobility
15
Key challenges & choices
How to continue or accelerate reductions in VMT
Appropriate level of City investment in transit
Identify the right strategy for transit - productivity or coverage
How to further support walking and bicycling as viable transportation choices
Influence of technology and the shared economy on travel behavior
Climate Action
16
Key Trends:
• Community emissions
decreasing
• Emissions have
decoupled from
population/economic
growth
• Innovation and
transformation
Change in Emissions, 2005-2016
Climate Action
17
Key challenges & choices
Integration of climate action with other key trends (i.e. regional commuting)
Transformation of existing building stock to drive efficiency and performance
Coordinated approach to adaptation and resiliency with mitigation efforts
Supporting innovation and anticipating disruption on the carbon neutral journey
Direction Sought
1. Does Council have input regarding any missing data, research, or
analysis needed as part of the Trends & Forces report?
2. Does Council have any direction on the key challenges and choices
highlighted in the report?
18
ADDITIONAL RESOURCE SLIDES
19
Community Profile
20
Household Composition:
2000
2015
Racial / Ethnic Composition:
Buildout & Development
21
Estimated capacity for
additional 28,500 units
Vacant & Buildable Lands by Zoning
Dwelling Unit Capacity
Buildout & Development
22
Development Activity, 2000-2017
- 22% of new residential units
were constructed in targeted
infill & redevelopment areas
- Most new development
occurred at the community
periphery on vacant lands
Housing Access
23
Jobs & Housing Growth
2010-2016, Larimer County
Jobs: 3.2% average annual growth
Housing Units: 1.3% average annual growth
Median Income & Home Price Growth
2000-2016, Fort Collins
Income: 1.8% average annual growth
Home Prices: 4.4% average annual growth (7% since 2010)
Housing Access
24
Housing Demand - 2040
Demand: ~30,500 units Supply (vacant land & infill): ~28,500 units
Economy & Employment
25
- Fort Collins still
accounts for a majority
of office, retail, and
industrial space in
Larimer County
- Since 2007, the
community is capturing
less of these
categories, especially
along I-25 to the south
Economy & Employment
26
Community Jobs Profile
Transportation & Mobility
27
Transportation & Mobility
28
Transportation & Mobility
29
Bicycle Facilities Sidewalk Condition
Transportation & Mobility
30
Bike & Pedestrian Crashes All Crashes
Climate Action
31
Emission Reduction Targets Source of Emissions, 2016
CULTURE, PARKS, AND RECREATION
performance metrics to include healthy and
local food access considerations—building on
those established as part of the Social Sustain-
ability Plan.
in residential, employment, and retail develop-
ment.
• Individual place types need to be reviewed and
recalibrated in response to the above consider-
ations.
• Full buildout of the Structure Plan map needs to
be evaluated within the context of Climate Action
Plan goals, as well as other community priorities.
phasis is needed on the desired end state and
rationale behind the particular land use patterns
that the plan encourages in different locations.
• Increased clarity on the types of transitions that
are appropriate in different contexts is also need-
ed.
types of projects being built in many locations
reflect the minimum requirements of (or limita-
tions of) the code versus the more aspirational
concepts called for by City Plan.
• A stronger linkage is needed between proposed
land use intensities, infrastructure capacity/avail-
ability, and code requirements.
the Front Range was minimal in Fort Collins
when compared to that sustained by other
communities.
Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement:
• Clear process needed for evaluating and resolving
competing interests in different aspects of City Plan
policies when they arise (e.g., historic preservation
and floodplain protection)
• Stronger emphasis on low-impact development
(LID) needed in City Plan, and in City projects
and housing. Strategies are needed to help create
new and evolve existing employment areas into
more mixed-use areas with a variety (size) of work
spaces. These mixed-use areas, much like down-
town areas, require partnerships and strategies to
support the areas, which reaches beyond land use
policy.
(such as transit or bicycling)? If so, where?
• Performance standards. What factors should we
use to prioritize investments in our transportation
system (both improvements and expansion)? What
metrics should we look to to understand if our
system provides for comfort, safety, connectivity,
and ease of mobility for all users of all ages and
abilities?
• Transit priorities. How should we best allocate
Transfort’s limited resources? Should we prioritize
coverage over frequency? A transfer-based system
versus a system with “one seat rides”? Should
we transition Transfort’s fleet to one comprised
of electric vehicles or more vehicles that use
compressed natural gas?
Focus Area #3:
Economic Health
Focus Area #4:
Transportation & Mobility
Options
Buildout & Land Supply
Focus Area #2:
Housing Access
improve local air quality, reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, and
create electric grid stability.
• Green infrastructure (using natural
systems to manage stormwater),
promotes biking and walking
(reducing GHG emissions), creates
habitat, and improves local air and
water quality.
• Increased recycling and
composting reduces GHG
emissions associated with their
associate decomposition of
organics and the embodies energy
or using virgin materials, while
creating and circular economy,
reducing land use for landfills.
heat (e.g., coal, natural gas, gas-
oline and diesel). Global warming
contributions from other green-
house gases (such as methane)
are referred to in terms of “car-
bon dioxide equivalent” or CO2e,
which represents the amount of
CO2 that would have the same
global warming potential as other
GHGs. Community carbon inven-
tory goals are tracked in terms of
tons of CO2e.
20% REDUCTION
2005
2016
2020
2030
2050
80% REDUCTION
NEUTRAL
BY 2050
CARBON
DOWN
12%
2.3 million
2.1 million
1.8 million
460k
Metric Tons (CO2e)
0
��� �m�ss�on �e�u�t�on Pro�ress � �ar�ets
Fort Collins, 2005 - 2050
Electricity
C�an�es �n ��� �m�ss�ons
Fort Collins, 2005 - 2016
12% DECREASE
ELECTRICITY
6% DECREASE
GROUND TRAVEL
5% INCREASE
NATURAL GAS
12% DECREASE
OVERALL
60% DECREASE
SOLID WASTE
5% INCREASE
WATER-RELATED
INCREASE 3.IN 5x LOCALLY-
INSTALLED SOLAR
CAPACITY
FORT COLLINS, 2014 - 2016
CSU enrollment growth, and a
partnership with CSU and Transfort.
Safety
With a commitment Towards Vision
Zero, the City is working hard to
reduce traffic-related fatalities.
However, a successful improvement
to roadway safety requires
collaborative efforts from multiple
agencies and a broad spectrum
of efforts that includes not only
engineering, but also education,
encouragement, enforcement, and
evaluation.
In addition to the effort made
by the City through capital
projects, Neighborhood Traffic
Mitigation Program, bike classes,
DUI enforcement and ongoing
monitoring, other changes in
technology and transportation are
also increasing safety. These include
Collision Avoidance Systems in
vehicles, autonomous vehicles and
the use of big data to identify high
crash locations and trends.
�utu�e �i�y�le �a�ilities
+15%
+172%
Source: 2014 Bicycle Plan
��e�a�e Daily �i�e�s�ip
MAX
31 3
2,435 5,217 2,047
Number of Bike/Ped Crashes
Existing
2020
Network
Full Build
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
50
100
150
�
�
�
�
�
�
Fatality
Severe Injury
Minor or Possible Injury
Property Damage Only
Source: City of Fort Collins 2016
Trac Safety Summary
141 miles
162 miles
384 miles
2040 2016
7,066
6,252
-12%
��� pe� �apita BIKE 20201 FATALITIES 0 BY
1 2014 Bicycle Plan
housing that is accessible to transit
and dense and mixed land uses that
will shorten trip lengths. Recent and
planned improvement of regional
transit connections providing
frequent service to Denver, Boulder,
Berthoud, and Longmont will also
impact mode choice for regional
trips. Emerging trends that will
influence commutes include
autonomous vehicles, the sharing
economy in transportation, and
Transportation-as-a-Service.
CDOT and NFRMPO analyzed
home-based work trips between
transportation analysis zones
in 2015 and projected that out
to 2040. The model projects a
140% increase in trips between
Fort Collins and the central I-25
subregion, a 68% increase between
Fort Collins and Loveland, and an
88% increase between Fort Collins
and all other subregions.
Traffic volume compared with
job and population growth.
Projections from the Climate Action
Plan anticipate an increase in
population but a decrease in VMT
through 2040. These projections
assume the implementation of a
number of strategies to reduce
greenhouse gas emission including
a reduction in VMT.
Travel behavior survey.
Placeholder until data is received.
+172%
Source: 2014 Bicycle Plan
��e�a�e Daily �i�e�s�ip
MAX
31 3
2,435 5,217 2,047
Network
Full Build
384 miles
2040 2016
7,066
6,252
-12%
��� pe� �apita
Placeholder for Trend-
Lab+ Outputs
Severe Injury
Minor or Possible Injury
Property Damage Only
� � � � �
Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins
Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: City of Fort Collins 2016
Trac Safety Summary
�utu�e �i�y�le �a�ilities
+15%
+172%
Source: 2014 Bicycle Plan
��e�a�e Daily �i�e�s�ip
MAX
31 3
2,435 5,217 2,047
Pe�est�ian an� �i�y�le ��as�es
Number of Bike/Ped Crashes
Existing
2020
Network
Full Build
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
50
100
150
200
�
�
�
�
�
�
Fatality
Severe Injury
Minor or Possible Injury
Property Damage Only
Source: City of Fort Collins 2016
Trac Safety Summary
141 miles
162 miles
384 miles
117mi
4mi
4mi
68mi 29mi
LOW
COMFORT
CYCLIST
PROHIBITED
MILES OF TRAIL
�nnual ��ans�o�t
�i�e�s�ip in �o�t �ollins
2016 2011
+90%
�o�t �ollins
Population ��o�t�
2016 2011
+12%
Source: City of Fort Collins
Source: City of Fort Collins Source: City of Fort Collins
Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins
DETACHED
(with buer)
MISSING
(40% of existing sidewalks)
362mi
EXISTING
BUT NOT
ADA
COMPLIANT (25% of existing sidewalks)
217mi
221mi
1,000,000
0
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
Total Ridership
P�o�u�ti�ity � �isto�i�al ��en�s �y �ea�
Fort Collins, 2003-2016
sengers per Revenue Hour
25
30
35
2,156,775
4,089,200
146,000
164,000
52% 27% 11% 6% 4%
���� �i�e�s�ip �y �a�e �lass
Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins
CSU Students/Faculty/Sta General Public Disabled Youth Seniors
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
201
201
Source: City of Fort Collins
P�o�u�ti�ity � �isto�i�al ��en�s �y �ea�
Fort Collins, 2003-2016
��ans�o�t P�o�u�ti�ity �y �oute
Passengers per Revenue Hour Passengers per Revenue Hour
Route
20
25
30
35
Passengers
31 3 MAX 2 32 HORN 8 14 18 7 81 19 6 9 10 5 16 12
4,089,200
164,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
52% 27% 11% 6% 4%
���� �i�e�s�ip �y �a�e �lass
Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins
CSU Students/Faculty/Sta General Public Disabled Youth Seniors
Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins
Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
�nnual ��ans�o�t
�i�e�s�ip in �o�t �ollins
2016 2011
+90%
�o�t �ollins
Population ��o�t�
2016 2011
+12%
Source: City of Fort Collins
P�o�u�ti�ity � �isto�i�al ��en�s �y �ea�
Fort Collins, 2003-2016
��ans�o�t P�o�u�ti�ity �y �oute
Passengers per Revenue Hour Passengers per Revenue Hour
Route
20
25
30
35
Passengers
31 3 MAX 2 32 HORN 8 14 18 7 81 19 6 9 10 5 16 12
2,156,775
4,089,200
146,000
164,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
52% 27% 11% 6% 4%
���� �i�e�s�ip �y �a�e �lass
Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins
�ll ��as�es �u��a�y
Number of All Crashes
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
CSU Students/Faculty/Sta General Public Disabled Youth Seniors
Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins
Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
Total Ridership
P�o�u�ti�ity � �isto�i�al ��en�s �y �ea�
Fort Collins, 2003-2016
35
2,156,775
4,089,200
146,000
164,000
52% 27% 11% 6%
���� �i�e�s�ip �y �a�e �lass
Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins
CSU Students/Faculty/Sta General Public Disabled Youth Seniors
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
��ans�o�t �nnual �i�e�s�ip
Fort Collins, 2000-2016
designated EXISTING
bike facilities
total
bike
boulevards
94mi
877mi
ATTACHED
(no buer)
(60% of existing sidewalks)
47mi 515mi
designated
bike facilities
bike
boulevards
S College Avenue
between Harmony Road
and Laurel Street
Major Shared
Use Paved
Minor Shared
Use Paved
117mi
4mi
4mi
29mi
MILES OF TRAIL
ES OF ON-STREET FACILITIES
�nnual ��ans�o�t
�i�e�s�ip in �o�t �ollins
2016 2011
+90%
�o�t �ollins
Population ��o�t�
2016 2011
+12%
Source: City of Fort Collins
Source: City of Fort Collins Source: City of Fort Collins
Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins
DETACHED
(with buer)
MISSING
(40% of existing sidewalks)
362mi
EXISTING
BUT NOT
ADA
COMPLIANT (25% of existing sidewalks)
217mi
221mi
Total Ridership
2,156,775
4,089,200
146,000
164,000
�e�s�ip �y �a�e �lass
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
�i�e�al�s
�i�e�s�ip
-2016
d EXISTING
ties
total
ds
877mi
ATTACHED
(no buer)
(60% of existing sidewalks)
515mi
d
ties
ds
oad
r Shared
Paved
Population ��o�t�
2016 2011
+12%
��� pe� �apita
2016 2011
-7%
Source: City of Fort Collins
ns
%
�o�t �ollins
Population ��o�t�
2016 2011
+12%
Collins
Source: City of Fort Collins
Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins
DETACHED
(with buer)
MISSING
(40% of existing sidewalks)
362mi
EXISTING
BUT NOT
ADA
COMPLIANT (25% of existing sidewalks)
217mi
221mi
Total Ridership
o�i�al ��en�s �y �ea�
2016
146,000
164,000
7,575
7,066
200
146,000
164,000
52% 27% 11% 6% 4%
ransfort-City of Fort Collins
eneral Public Disabled Youth Seniors
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
67%
17%
17%
Existing, sucient width sidewalk
Existing, non-ADA sidewalk
Missing sidewalk
�utu�e �i�y�le �a�ilities
+15%
+172%
Source: 2014 Bicycle Plan
��e�a�e Daily �i�e�s�ip
MAX
31 3
2,435 5,217 2,047
Fatality
Severe Injury
Minor or Possible Injury
Property Damage Only
Pe�est�ian an� �i�y�le ��as�es
Number of Bike/Ped Crashes
Existing
2020
Network
Full Build
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
50
100
150
200
�
�
�
�
�
�
Fatality
Severe Injury
Minor or Possible Injury
Property Damage Only
Source: City of Fort Collins 20
Trac Safety Summa
Source: City of Fort Collins 20
Trac Safety Summa
141 miles
162 miles
384 miles
016
7,066
��� pe� �apita
2016 2011
Taft Hill Road from
Harmony to Mulberry
Timberline Road from
Harmony to Mulberry
Harmony Road from
Taft Hill to Timberline
Mulberry Street from
Taft Hill to Timberline
Prospect Road from
Taft Hill to Timberline
Average
+4%
Population ��o
2016 2011
Source: City of Fort Co
Source: City of Fort Collins
MI
5,000,000
1,106,233,329
1,159,925,919
146,00
164
��a�el �i�e on ��te�ials
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
SOV Carpooled Taxicab, Motorcycle, Bicycle, Other
Harmony to Mulberry
Timberline Road from
Harmony to Mulberry
Harmony Road from
Taft Hill to Timberline
Mulberry Street from
Taft Hill to Timberline
Prospect Road from
Taft Hill to Timberline
Average
+4%
Population ��o�t�
2016 2011
+12%
��� pe� �apita
2016 2011
-7%
Source: City of Fort Collins
DETACHED
(with buer)
(40% of existing sidewalks)
362mi
1,106,233,329
1,159,925,919
146,000
164,000
7,575
7,066
��a�el �i�e on ��te�ials
2011
2016
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
SOV Carpooled Taxicab, Motorcycle, Bicycle, Other Walked Public Transit
76% 10% 8% 4% 2%
�o�t �ollins �o�e ��a�e
��� ��en�s in �o�t �ollins
Source: American Community Survey 2011-2015
Source: City of Fort Collins Trac Operations Department
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
College Avenue from
Harmony to Mulberry
Taft Hill Road from
Harmony to Mulberry
Timberline Road from
Harmony to Mulberry
Harmony Road from
Taft Hill to Timberline
Mulberry Street from
Taft Hill to Timberline
Prospect Road from
Taft Hill to Timberline
Average
Population ��o�t�
��� pe� �apita
��a�el �i�e on ��te�ials
2011
2016
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
SOV Carpooled Taxicab, Motorcycle, Bicycle, Other Walked Public Transit
76% 10% 8% 4% 2%
�o�t �ollins �o�e ��a�e
��� ��en�s in �o�t �ollins
�i�y�le �a�ilities
�i�e�al�s
��ans�o�t �nnual �i�e�s�ip
Fort Collins, 2000-2016
HIGH
COMFORT
designated EXISTING
bike facilities
total
bike
boulevards
94mi
877mi
ATTACHED
(no buer)
(60% of existing sid
47mi 515mi
designated
bike facilities
bike
boulevards
S College Avenue
between Harmony Road
and Laurel Street
Major Shared
Use Paved
Minor Shared
Use Paved
117mi
4mi
4mi
68mi 29mi
LOW
COMFORT
CYCLIST
PROHIBITED
MILES OF TRAIL
MILES OF ON-STREET FACILITIES
Source: American Community Survey 2011-2015
Source: City of Fort Collins Trac Operations Department
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
College Avenue from
Harmony to Mulberry
2016 2011
Taft Hill Road from
Harmony to Mulberry
Timberline Road from
Harmony to Mulberry
Harmony Road from
Taft Hill to Timberline
Mulberry Street from
Taft Hill to Timberline
Prospect Road from
Taft Hill to Timberline
Average
+4%
Population ��o�t�
2016 2011
+12%
��� pe� �apita
2016 2011
Source: City of Fort Collins
Source: City of Fort Collins Source: City of Fort Collins
DETACHED
(with buer)
MISSING
(40% of existing sid
362mi
EXISTING
BUT NOT
ADA
COMPLIANT (25% of existing sid
217mi
221mi
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
1,106,233,329
1,159,925,919
146,000
164,000
7,57
7,066
��a�el �i�e on ��te�ials
2011
2016
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
SOV Carpooled Taxicab, Motorcycle, Bicycle, Other Walked Public Transit
76% 10% 8% 4% 2%
�o�t �ollins �o�e ��a�e
��� ��en�s in �o�t �ollins
�i�y�le �a�ilities
�i�e�al�s
��ans�o�t �nnual �i�e�s�ip
Fort Collins, 2000-2016
HIGH
COMFORT
designated EXISTING
bike facilities
total
bike
boulevards
94mi
877mi
ATTACHED
(no buer)
(60% of existing sidewalks)
47mi 515mi
designated
bike facilities
bike
boulevards
S College Avenue
between Harmony Road
and Laurel Street
Major Shared
Use Paved
Minor Shared
Use Paved
117mi
4mi
4mi
68mi 29mi
LOW
COMFORT
CYCLIST
PROHIBITED
MILES OF TRAIL
MILES OF ON-STREET FACILITIES
Source: American Community Survey 2011-2015
Source: City of Fort Collins Trac Operations Department
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
College Avenue from
Harmony to Mulberry
2016 2011
Taft Hill Road from
Harmony to Mulberry
Timberline Road from
Harmony to Mulberry
Harmony Road from
Taft Hill to Timberline
Mulberry Street from
Taft Hill to Timberline
Prospect Road from
Taft Hill to Timberline
Average
+4%
Population ��o�t�
2016 2011
+12%
��� pe� �apita
2016 2011
-7%
Source: City of Fort Collins
Source: City of Fort Collins Source: City of Fort Collins
DETACHED
(with buer)
MISSING
(40% of existing sidewalks)
362mi
EXISTING
BUT NOT
ADA
COMPLIANT (25% of existing sidewalks)
217mi
221mi
5,000,000
1,106,233,329
1,159,925,919
146,000
164,000
7,575
7,066
��a�el �i�e on ��te�ials
2011
2016
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
SOV Carpooled Taxicab, Motorcycle, Bicycle, Other Walked Public Transit
76% 10% 8% 4% 2%
s �o�e ��a�e
�s in �o�t �ollins
�i�y�le �a�ilities
�i�e�al�s
designated EXISTING
bike facilities
total
bike
boulevards
94mi
877mi
ATTACHED
(no buer)
(60% of existing sidewalks)
47mi 515mi
designated
bike facilities
bike
boulevards
S College Avenue
between Harmony Road
and Laurel Street
117mi
4mi
4mi
OF ON-STREET FACILITIES
Source: American Community Survey 2011-2015
Source: City of Fort Collins Trac Operations Department
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
enue from
o Mulberry
Road from
o Mulberry
Road from
o Mulberry
Road from
Timberline
Street from
Timberline
Road from
Timberline
Average
+4%
Population ��o�t�
2016 2011
+12%
��� pe� �apita
2016 2011
-7%
Source: City of Fort Collins
DETACHED
(with buer)
(40% of existing sidewalks)
362mi
EXISTING
BUT NOT
ADA
COMPLIANT (25% of existing sidewalks)
217mi
1,106,233,329
1,159,925,919
146,000
164,000
7,575
7,066
��a�el �i�e on ��te�ials
2011
2016
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
OV Carpooled Taxicab, Motorcycle, Bicycle, Other Walked Public Transit
Between 2011 and 2016, VMT
increased by 5% but the
population grew by 12%, resulting
in a 7% decrease in VMT per
capita.
Note: VMT data is only available through
2013 and was predicted for 2016 as a part
of the Climate Action Plan.
Travel behavior survey.
Placeholder until data is received.
Oce
Retail
Industrial/Flex
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Educational Services
Manufacturing
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Professional and Technical Services
Public Administration
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Administrative and Waste Services
Other Services, Ex. Public Admin
Utilities
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Finance and Insurance
Information
Construction
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing &…
Management of Companies and…
Wholesale Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Mining
�o�ation �uotient
Fort Collins, 2016
Higher Concentration - Fort Collins
Higher Concentration - Colorado
Equal Concentration
Top Ten Largest Employers
Fort Collins, 2016
EMPLOYER INDUSTRY EMPLOYEES
Colorado State University Education 7,525
Poudre School District Education 4,297
University of Colorado Hospital Healthcare 3,801
City of Fort Collins Government 1,838
Larimer County Government 1,838
Woodward, Inc. Aerospace 1,232
Avago Technologies US, Inc. Analog Electronics 1,084
Department of Agriculture Government 1,078
Otter Products, LLC Electronics Accessories 864
Employment Solutions Personnel Staffing 850
$80,000
$100,000
Education Health Care Retail Trade Accommodations
and Food Service
Manufacturing Professional and
Technical
Services
Larimer County Average: $56,987
Distribution of Jobs by Industry
Fort Collins, 2016
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Manufacturing
Professional, Scientific, Technical Services
Public Administration
Administration & Waste Services
Construction
Finance & Insurance
Other Services, excluding Public Administration
Real Estate & Rental and Leasing
Information
Wholesale Trade
Arts and Entertainment
Transportation & Warehousing
Management
Other
17%
16%
12%
11%
8%
8%
6%
5%
3%
3%
3%
2% 2%
1% 1% 1%
1% 1%
were Health Care (4,442 new jobs),
Accommodation and Food Service
(3,952 new jobs), Construction
(3,153 new jobs), and Manufacturing
(2,739 jobs).
21
185
190
241
327
352
481
493
495
517
735
862
1,469
1,864
1,886
2,054
2,739
3,153
3,952
4,443
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Utilities
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Mining
Information
Administrative and Waste Services
Management
Public Administration
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Finance and Insurance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Transportation and Warehousing
Other Services, Ex. Public Admin
Wholesale Trade
Professional and Technical Services
Educational Services
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Construction
Accommodation and Food Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
��an�e in ��ploy�ent �y �n�ust�y
Larimer County, 2010 - 2016
groups is expected to stay the
same over the next 20 years.
Affordability will impact
demand.
The affordability of housing in
the future will impact housing
demand. Should the gap between
median home prices and median
incomes continue to widen
through 2040, less households
may be financial able to own
homes. Since the majority of rental
housing is in multi-family homes,
the demand for medium- and
high-density housing could be
higher than what is forecasted.
42,254
14,891
6,590
13,691
6,107
10,686 4.1% annual
increase
1.4% annual
increase
1.2% annual
increase
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Low Density
Middle Density
High Density
�sti�ate� �ousin� De�an�
Fort Collins, 2016 - 2040
2016 2040
25%
15%
11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000 2016 2000 2016
Housing Cost Burden for Renters & Homeowners
Fort Collins, 2000 & 2016
Severely cost-burdened Cost-burdened
Renter-Households Owner-Households
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$102,100
$302,000
$199,900
$350,000
Housing Aordability Gap
Fort Collins, 2015
Aordable Price Gap
Median Sales Price
a residential structure) has stayed
relatively the same as in 2000.
While the percent of units that were
single-family homes did not change
between 2000 and 2016, the share
of multi-family housing (5 units or
more) grew slightly over this period.
Home prices in Fort Collins are
increasing faster than incomes.
The median sales price of a home
in Fort Collins has increased from
$187,522 in 2000 to $352,000
in 2017 (as of October). Since
2000, the median sales price
grew at an average annual rate
of 4.4%, much faster than the
average annual rate of growth for
household median income (1.8%).
Prices have grown at an even
faster rate since 2010, increasing
by 7% on average each year.
43%
47%
57%
53%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2000
2016
Tenure of Households
Fort Collins, 2000 & 2016
Renter-Occupied Owner-Occupied
SINGLE-FAMILY
ATTACHED
(2 TO 4 UNITS)
MULTI-FAMILY
(5+ UNITS) OTHER
63% 8% 26% 2%2016
Square Feet
5.3 million
Square Feet
3.0 million
Square Feet
430k Square Feet
290k Square Feet
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Low-Density Units (Vacant Lands)
Medium-Density Units (Vacant Lands)
High-Density (Vacant Lands)
Low-Density Units (Infill/Redevelopment)
Medium-Density Units (Infill/Redevelopment)
High-Density (Infill/Redevelopment)
Distribution of Dwelling Unit Capacity by Dwelling Unit Type
9,160 Units 9,580 Units
822
Units
1,153
Units
732
Units
7,000 Units
Vacant and Buildable Lands by Land Use Type
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Residential Zoning Commercial / Mixed-Use Zoning Employment Industrial Other Zoning
al Vacant Development
nt Development
al Infill/Redevelopment
/Redevelopment
4,110 acres 850 acres 1,115 acres 800 acres
16 acres
A number of parcels within the
city are likely to redevelop in the
future. In total, it is estimated that
redevelopment could support an
additional 2,700 dwelling units
and 3.7 million square feet of
non-residential development.
5
6
7
8
4
3% 1%
GMA
11%
31%
33%
5%
5%
4%
4%
1% 4%
2%
Low Density Residential
Medium and High Density Residential
Industrial
Public/Quasi-Public
Agriculture
Parks, Natural Area,
and Open Space
Vacant
Commercial Other
Mobile Homes
62%
59%
38%
41%
22%
31%
29%
36%
48%
66%
70%
46%
54%
40%
49%
74%
59%
35%
78%
69%
71%
64%
52%
65%
34%
30%
54%
46%
60%
51%
26%
41%
66% 34%
73% 27%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Residential Units Permitted
Fort Collins, 2000 - 2017
Single-Family Non-Single-Family
of poverty was estimated to
be 17.8%. However, when off-
campus students were excluded,
this estimate dropped to 10.1%,
a difference of 7.7%. Across all
block groups in the city, there
was a strong positive correlation
between the presence of
undergraduate students and
poverty. Variations in the number
of undergraduates explained
62% of the variation in poverty
rates found across block groups,
a significant amount for a single
variable.
2016 (population under 18)
Hispanic/Latino (21%)
White (65%) Asian (3%)
Black (1%) Other (10%)
60 to 64 years
65 to 74 years
75 to 84 years
85 years and over
Age Groups
Age Distribution of Population6
Fort Collins, 2000 and 2015
4.3%
1.9%
4.7%
7.6%
5.7%
0.9%
0.9%
2.2%
2.6%
2000 2015 Average Annual Growth 2000-15
0.8%
0.2%
1.3%
1.5%
2002
2006
2010
2014
Total County Population
Component of Growth Population
�i�t�s� Deat�s� an� �et �i��ation
Larimer County, 1990 - 2017
Births Deaths
Net Migration Population
Births Deaths
Net Migration Population
-200,000
-100,000
0
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
2032
2035
2038
Total County Population
Component of Growth Population
Births, Deaths, and Net Migration
Larimer County, 2017 - 2040
10
much of this future growth.
14,937
25,027
43,337
65,092
87,491
120,236
144,887
167,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
Population1
Fort Collins, 1950 - 2017
5.3%
5.6%
4.2%
3.0%
3.2%
1.9% 2.0%
1.6%
1.3%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Average Annual Grwoth Rate
Population Growth Rates2
Fort Collins, 1950 - 2040
1950-60
1960-70
1970-80
1980-90
1990-2000
2000-10
2010-20
2020-30
2030-40
PLAN ADOPTION
Fall/Winter 2018
Present City Plan to the City Council for consideration of
adoption.
START
FINISH
PROJECT INITIATION
Spring/Summer 2017
Finalize work plan and draft community engagement
plan.
WHERE ARE WE NOW? WHERE ARE WE HEADED?
Fall 2017/Winter 2018
Gather data to build a “snapshot” of Fort Collins today;
learn about existing conditions, needs, and priorities.