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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOUNCIL - AGENDA ITEM - 02/13/2018 - CITY PLAN UPDATE - TRENDS AND FORCESDATE: STAFF: February 13, 2018 Ryan Mounce, City Planner Cameron Gloss, Planning Manager WORK SESSION ITEM City Council SUBJECT FOR DISCUSSION City Plan Update - Trends and Forces. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this item is to update Council and the community about key findings from the draft City Plan: Trends & Forces report. The report provides information about current conditions and anticipated trends on a range of topics such as demographics, transportation, development activity and land supply, housing access, the economy, climate action, and more. Staff anticipates sharing information contained in the report as part of the launch of public activities for City Plan to build a common understanding of existing conditions prior to updating and refining the community vision. GENERAL DIRECTION SOUGHT AND SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED 1. Does Council have input regarding any missing data, research, or analysis needed as part of the Trends & Forces report? 2. Does Council have any direction on the key challenges and choices for the future highlighted in the report? BACKGROUND / DISCUSSION City Plan Project Overview and Timeline City Plan is an 18-month process to update the City’s Comprehensive Plan, Transportation Master Plan, and Transit Master Plan. Collectively, these Plans articulate a general vision for the future of the community and provide high-level policy guidance to help inform decision-making. City Plan is a forward-looking document and process envisioning what the community will feel and look like over the next 5-20 years. Prior updates to the comprehensive plan and transportation master plan occurred in 2011, while the Transit Master Plan (previously called the Transfort Strategic Operating Plan) occurred in 2009. Previous updates to these plans focused on aligning the community vision and policy guidance to match the Budgeting for Outcomes (BFO) process and the seven key outcome areas. As part of the next City Plan update, staff worked to incorporate Council direction and feedback to focus efforts on the following topics: • Buildout and Development - Vacant and buildable land supply in the Growth Management Area (GMA) is diminishing. The next City Plan update will explore which values and priorities are most important to the community as these remaining lands are developed and preserved, and if remaining land is sufficient to meet projected housing, commercial, and industrial demand. • Housing Access - Affordability and housing choice are consistently ranked as a top priority for residents who participate in the City’s Community Survey. As rents and home prices continue to outpace wage growth, what tools and factors can the City influence to enhance housing opportunities and housing options? • Transportation and Mobility - City Plan will explore the role of shifting travel behaviors, technologies, and funding mechanisms that may influence changes to the Master Street Plan. City Plan also seeks to clarify where the community’s vision for transit falls along the spectrum from coverage (serving many geographic areas) to productivity (frequent service where ridership is highest). February 13, 2018 Page 2 • Climate Action - City Plan will incorporate the direction and guidance provided by the City’s climate action goals into City Plan, and determine potential changes to our land-use and transportation frameworks to help achieve these goals. • Equity - Who you are and where you live in Fort Collins may place you on a different path than residents with a different background or who live elsewhere in the City. The City Plan document, and its engagement process, will more directly incorporate equity as a lens through which the vision and policies are updated. This spring, following completion of the Trends & Forces report, City Plan will begin a visioning phase with events and activities designed to solicit input from the community around key values and priorities. Refinements to City Plan’s vision and goals, especially as they relate to the focus areas described above, are anticipated. Remaining phases of the plan and projected timelines are included in Attachment 1, City Plan Phases and Timeline. Trends & Forces Report City Plan provides a high-level vision and goals for the community for the next 5-20 years. The Plan helps form the basis for the community’s land-use and transportation frameworks, development standards, programs, policies, and more. Prior to engaging with the community on refining the previously adopted vision and goals, it is important to have a shared understanding of current conditions and the trends and anticipated direction the community is heading. The draft Trends & Forces report, Attachment 2, is an analysis of current conditions and future projections. Data and information included in the report was selected to explore City Plan’s focus areas and includes figures on community demographics, land supply and development activity, housing access, economic conditions and demand forecasts, transportation network trends, and progress toward climate action goals. Highlights from these sections and key questions or challenges raised by the findings are summarized below. Community Profile ▪ Fort Collins’s rate of growth will slow through 2040 while numeric growth will be steady - approximately 2,000 to 3,000 additional residents are expected annually. Fort Collins could grow from approximately 170,000 today to 235,000 in 2040. ▪ Mirroring state and national trends, the City’s population is expected to age, especially for those over 65 years in age. ▪ The City’s Hispanic/Latino population is growing. While approximately 13% of the overall population identifies as Hispanic/Latino in 2016, for the population 18 years and under, this rises to 21%, with 10% identifying as other (i.e. two or more races). ▪ A composite of community health and equity indicators, such as poverty rates, access to vehicles and higher obesity rates are unevenly distributed throughout the community. Areas north/northeast of Downtown and along the East Mulberry corridor indicate more vulnerability. Key challenges and choices: o Fort Collins and the region are projected to grow at rates above the national average. Planning for and managing this anticipated growth, especially within remaining vacant lands, will be an important community discussion. o As our population becomes older, has fewer households with children and becomes more diverse, how will our built environment, policies, and programs need to change to suit the needs of a changing community? o How can the community better understand barriers faced by certain groups or geographic areas and use an equity lens to ensure all residents have access to services, resources, and opportunities? February 13, 2018 Page 3 Buildout and Development ▪ A majority of all new residential units permitted in Fort Collins are for multifamily (apartments), a shift from predominantly single-family homes constructed during the 1990s and 2000s. ▪ Only 22% of development since 2000 has occurred within targeted infill and redevelopment areas. Most development still takes place at the community’s periphery on vacant land. ▪ Approximately 6,900 acres of vacant lands remain in the GMA, down from 9,600 in 2008, a decrease of 28%. Most of this vacant land is zoned for residential, primarily at lower densities. Approximately 20% of the land is constrained by natural hazards, such as floodplains. ▪ As vacant lands decrease, more redevelopment and infill within the core of the community is anticipated. This redevelopment tends to be of much higher density. ▪ A majority of remaining vacant land is not served by City sewer and water utilities, which could impact the availability, timing, and pricing of future development in these areas. Key challenges and choices: o Fort Collins development activity is increasingly constrained by a limited supply of vacant land. New developments will be increasingly constrained by land availability, land prices, services and utilities, natural hazards, and community goals to preserve and protect sensitive natural features. o Major changes to the retail, office and production industries may provide opportunities to examine our mix of land uses. o How should our targeted mix of land uses be impacted by growth within the surrounding region? o Targeted areas of the community may experience increasing infill and redevelopment as vacant lands diminish. Redevelopment tends to occur at higher densities to its surroundings, which can lead to tensions around compatibility and community character. Housing Access ▪ Since 2000, Fort Collins and Larimer County have produced more jobs than housing units. The jobs- housing imbalance has recently accelerated; since 2010, average annual jobs have increased by 3.2%, while housing units have increased by 1.3% annually. ▪ Rents and home prices in Fort Collins are increasing faster than wages. Since 2000, median sales prices have increased on average 4.4% each year compared to 1.8% for household median income. ▪ In 2016, nearly 59% of renter-households were cost-burdened or severely cost-burdened, compared to 17% of owner-occupied households. ▪ Housing demand through 2040 is anticipated to exceed supply available through new development on vacant lands. ▪ Rising land costs, construction labor shortages, changes in national/state affordable housing funding and grants along with the above listed factors increase the difficulty of the community meetings its target for 10% of all housing units as affordable by 2040. Key challenges and choices: o Anticipated trends highlight increasing difficulty for the community to meet its affordable housing goals of 10% of all units as affordable in 2040. o If new jobs continue to outpace new housing units, Fort Collins will increasingly import workers from the community, likely decreasing affordability, and generating additional regional trips. February 13, 2018 Page 4 o The current zoning framework on vacant lands in the GMA indicate there is insufficient supply to meet future housing demand. Is the community willing to look at current commercial/industrial lands for additional housing capacity? Economy and Employment ▪ Fort Collins is capturing less of the overall region’s demand for office, retail, and industrial/flex as development occurs around I-25 to the south. ▪ Job growth is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.9% through 2040, representing an additional 85,000 jobs in Larimer County. This rate of growth is project to exceed growth in housing supply. ▪ The jobs-housing balance in Fort Collins was 1.18 in 2010 and rose to 1.25 in 2015. Projections for Larimer County anticipate a future jobs-housing balance of 2.55 in 2040. ▪ Based on demand forecasts, vacant land in the GMA is anticipated to meet Industrial demand and commercial/mixed-use, but shows an oversupply of employment land. Key challenges and choices: o As regional retail, entertainment and flex space grows to the south, how will that impact Fort Collins’ travel patterns, development patterns, and revenue environment? o Is the community comfortable importing additional workers over time, or should we explore ways to increase housing supply to better balance our jobs-housing ratio? o What types of industries and development is Fort Collins best suited to retain and attract in the future given the quantity and quality of development and redevelopment opportunities and the communities’ skillsets? o What types and quality of jobs are forecast, and how will that impact underemployment? Transportation and Mobility ▪ Single occupancy vehicle trips remain the primary mode choice for 75% of commuters. ▪ Since 2011, Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) per capita are decreasing. ▪ The community is experiencing an increase in commuting from adjacent cities, particularly Loveland, Windsor, and Timnath. ▪ Bicycle ridership continues to grow and expand alongside the expansion of the community’s bicycle system. ▪ With over 400 miles of deficient sidewalks, walking as a trip choice remains low, however, there is now a dedicated program and funding to address missing and deficient sidewalks. ▪ Transit ridership has grown by over 90% since 2011, thanks in large part to the launch of MAX and overall system improvements. ▪ CSU (including students, faculty and staff) account for over half of Transfort ridership. ▪ Safety is an area for continued improvements, with overall crash rates up slightly since 2012. Key challenges and choices: o How will the shared economy and changing technologies influence travel in the future? What does a comprehensive transportation program aimed at reducing single occupancy vehicle trips look like? February 13, 2018 Page 5 o What are the steps needed to continue or accelerate a reduction in VMT, which means a reduction in single occupancy vehicle trips? o What does the City’s investment in Transit look like in the future? Will there be a shift towards a system based on productivity or coverage? o What are the long term, stable funding sources for transportation needs? o What policies are needed to further support walking and bicycling as viable transportation choices? Climate Action ▪ Climate action includes both mitigation (reducing emissions) and adaptation and resiliency (how we prepare for, adapt to, and increase our resiliency to climate impacts). The City currently lacks a formal adaptation and resiliency plan, though other policy documents guide longer-term efforts. ▪ Fort Collins is moving towards its 2020 emission reduction goals. Since 2005, overall emissions are down 12% and per capita emissions are down 28%. ▪ Fort Collins is leading the way in demonstrating how population and economic growth can decouple from emissions. Since 2005, our population has grown nearly 20% and our economy 30% while overall emissions are down. • In the past year alone, several initiatives have transitioned from aspirational to operational, including the sharp decline in renewable energy prices. In the past few months, Platte River Power Authority released a Zero Net Carbon study that illustrated a pathway to 100% renewable electricity and signed a Power Purchase Agreement for 150 megawatts of new wind power, which has the potential to impact the community’s inventory by 10% and have a net neutral impact on rates over its lifetime. Key challenges and choices: o How will climate action efforts integrate with other key trends and forces, e.g., the trend around increasing jobs ahead of the number of housing units, which has the potential to increase vehicle miles traveled and thus emissions? Are we willing to accept higher-density development in more areas of the of the city in exchange for more affordable housing options that encourage transit usage? o Given Fort Collins’ extensive existing building stock, a comprehensive approach will be needed to drive efficiency and transform buildings towards higher energy performance. How will Fort Collins approach this for all buildings and residents, including low-income residents? o How will the City and its partners continue working towards becoming a carbon neutral city while also supporting disruption and innovations in key sectors? o The City will need to determine the degree to which adaptation and resiliency planning should be coordinated and formalized. Next Steps and Community Visioning The information, analysis, and takeaways from the report will be use directly to help inform upcoming phases of City Plan, such as refining and updating our vision for the future. The process to adjust the vision will incorporate not only key drivers from this report, but also community values and priorities, and an understanding of potential tradeoffs. Advancing the vision in one area may have consequences in another. Updates to the vision will also incorporate the City’s commitment to the triple bottom line and the interdependency of an economic, social, and environmental lens. Staff anticipates providing the next update to Council at the May 22, 2018 work session with information on community feedback on potential changes to the City Plan vision and ideas on how to frame development and analysis of scenarios to analyze over the summer. February 13, 2018 Page 6 ATTACHMENTS 1. City Plan Phases and Timeline (PDF) 2. City Plan Trends & Forces Report (draft) (PDF) 3. Powerpoint presentation (PDF) 1 2018 Update Timeline Public Kickoff: February 12, 2018, 6-8pm; Drake Centre, 802 W Drake Rd City Plan Phases & Timeline ATTACHMENT 1 1 CITY FORT COLLINS PLAN Trends & Forces Report - Sta Draft: 01/15/18 PLANNING OUR FUTURE. TOGETHER. ATTACHMENT 2 2 CITY FORT PLANNING COLLINS OUR FUTURE. PLAN TOGETHER. TRENDS & FORCES REPORT 3 Planning our future begins with understanding our past... S ince the last major comprehensive plan and transportation plan update was completed in 2011, the City of Fort Collins has actively worked with the community, and local and regional partners, to implement key recommendations. However, Fort Collins has changed dramatically in seven years. Since 2011, the city... • Added x new residents and x jobs • Approved building permits for x new residential units and over x sf of non-residential development • Made a commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 80 percent below 2005 by 2030, and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 • Saw transit ridership nearly double on the heels of the MAX line opening in 2014 • Adopted Nature in the City, with a goal of ensuring every resident is within a 10-minute walk to nature from their home or workplace. As a result of these and other changes at the local, regional, and global scale, the plan must be brought back into alignment as the community’s overarch- ing vision and policy guide. This initial step in the process allows us to take a step back and evaluate where we are today, what trends and forces are likely to influence us in the future, what’s working well (or not), and whether we have the right tools in place to help us achieve the community’s vision. This information is provided as a resource to help build shared understanding of where we are as a community today, and where we are headed in the future. It will be used as a foundation for community and stakeholder discussions and next steps in the process. 4 4 CONTENTS Setting the Stage..................................................................................................................6 Focus Area #1: Buildout & Land Supply...........................................................................18 Focus Area #2 Housing Access........................................................................................26 Focus Area #3:Economic Health......................................................................................32 Focus Area #4: Transportation & Mobility Options....................................................................40 Focus Area #5:Climate Action Plan Implementation...................................................50 Key Choices for the The Road Ahead.............................................................................56 Report Card........................................................................................................................62 5 About City Plan T he City Plan process will include updates to the City’s comprehensive plan, as well as the Transpor- tation Master Plan and the Transfort Strategic Operating Plan (also referred to as the Transit Master Plan). This integrated process will ensure policies and recommen- dations are closely aligned. Unless otherwise noted, all references to City Plan should be interpreted to apply broadly to all three plans. City Plan is a multi-step process that is anticipated to run through the winter of 2018. Opportunities for pub- lic input and involvement will be provided throughout each step of the process: About the Report T his Trends & Forces Report highlights major trends and key issues affecting the City of Fort Collins that must be considered as part of the City Plan update. It includes four sections: Setting the Stage-provides an overview of basic demo- graphic and socio-economic data about our community. Areas of Focus-explores current conditions and trends specific to five focus areas that emerged as major topics for discussion during initial meetings with project stake- holders in late 2017. These focus areas include: • Buildout and land supply • Housing access • Economic health • Transportation and mobility options • Climate Action Plan implementation • Civic capacity and equity Key Choices for the Road Ahead-highlights key choices and trade-offs that will need to be explored during next steps in the City Plan process in light of trends and ex- isting conditions in each area. Report Card- provides an assessment of the success- es, challenges/areas for improvement, and policy gaps that need to be addressed as part of the plan update for each of City Plan’s seven outcome areas. • Economic Health • Environmental Health • Community and Neighborhood Livability • Safety and Wellness • Culture, Parks, and Recreation • High Performing Community • Transportation 5 COMMUNITY VISIONING Winter/Spring 2018 Develop and confirm a shared community vision for the future of Fort Collins. SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT Spring 2018 Discuss several possible scenarios for the future and how our community vision could be achieved. DRAFT PLAN DEVELOPMENT Spring/Summer 2018 Develop and share a draft of the plan, including a preferred scenario, policies, and recommendations; revise the draft based on community input. 6 SETTING THE STAGE Photo: City of Fort Collins 6 7 S ince its incorporation as a city in 1883, Fort Collins has grown and prospered. In 2016, it was the fourth most populous city in Colorado (behind Denver, Colorado Springs, and Aurora), and the largest in Larimer County. Based on estimates, the city is expected to reach a population of between 236,000 and 237,000 residents by 2040. As we plan for the future, it will be important to understand and address the impacts of recent population growth on existing residents, as well as to anticipate the needs of those who will call Fort Collins home in the future. Beyond raw numbers, our population is incredibly di- verse. We are a community made up of residents of different ages, races, and ethnicities. Some of us live in families, while others live alone. Some of us have master’s degrees or PhDs, while others do not have high school diplomas. Many of us own vehicles, but some of us do not. Our household incomes vary dra- matically. Some of us are more vulnerable to mental illness or other health issues than others. The diversity of our population as a whole, and in dif- ferent parts of the city, must be taken into account as we plan for the future. This helps us to better under- stand who lives in our city, what their future needs might be, and to ensure we provide equitable oppor- tunities for all members of our community. The demographic information presented in this sec- tion is intended to set the stage for a more in-depth look at the particular topics that are the focus of this report: • Buildout and land supply; • Housing access; • Economic health; • Transportation and mobility options; and • Climate Action Plan implementation. 7 City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 8 Population Our population will continue to grow... Since 1950, Fort Collins has seen a more than ten-fold increase in its population, growing from 14,937 residents to approximately 167,000 residents in 2017. According to estimates, the city will have a population of over 200,000 residents by 2028, and will grow by between 69,000 and 70,000 residents by 2040. ...but the rate of population growth is slowing. The average annual rate of population growth in Fort Collins has slowed each decade since 1950. Annual growth rates exceeded 5% between 1950 and 1970, but declined to an annual average rate of 1.9% between 2000 and 2010. While the decade between 2010 and 2020 is expected to see a slight increase in the average annual rate of population growth (to 2.0%), the overall trend of slower rates of growth looks set to continue through the decades between 2020 and 2040. We are the largest community in Larimer County. Forty eight percent of Larimer County’s 338,663 residents lived in Fort Collins in 2016. This was similar to the proportion of county residents living in Fort Collins in 2000 (47%), meaning the population of residents living in the city grew at a slightly faster pace than those living elsewhere in the county over this period. Students represent a large percentage of our overall population. On average, Colorado State University (CSU) students accounted for 18% of the city’s total population between 2007 and 2017. The fall 2017 semester marked the largest student enrollment in history (33,413). Of these students, 28,446 (or 85%) were enrolled as resident students. CSU’s campus master plan accommodates up to 35,000 students. The university expects that non-resident student enrollment will drive 9 Setting the Stage | Population 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 240,000 260,000 Estimated Population �ro�th3 Fort Collins, 2000 - 2040 Estimate (Method 1) Estimate (Method 2) 120,236 167,000 236,112 236,903 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 33,413 CSU ENROLLMENT4 FALL 2017 Population Density Fort Collins, 1990, 2000, and 2015 1990 1 dot = 1 person 2000 2015 City Plan | Trends & Forces Report WHAT IS DRIVING OUR POPULATION GROWING? Population change is driven by three variables: the number of people who are born (births), the number of people who die (deaths), and net migration, the number of people moving into an area (in- migration) minus the number who move away (out- migration). When births and in-migration are larger than deaths and out-migration, a population grows; a population shrinks when the opposite is true. The State Demography Office tracks these components of population change for each county in Colorado, and makes projections for what these will be in the future. Since 1990, births and in-migration have exceeded deaths and out-migration in Larimer County. Births have been a consistent driver of growth, but have not grown significantly between 1990 and 2017. Thanks to the high quality of life in Larimer County, in-migration has exceeded out-migration creating a positive net migration of people throughout this period. Unlike births, in-migration has varied considerably between 1990 and 2017. For instance, net migration in 2003 contributed just 148 people to population growth, compared to 7,523 people in 2015. On average, net migration was responsible for over half of the new residents who moved to Larimer County in any given year (although, this was not true, on average, between 2000 and 2010). On the other side of the equation, deaths have been increasing since 1990. The average annual rate of growth in the number of deaths between 1990 and 2017 (3.3%) exceeded that for births (1.0%). According to the State Demographer’s forecasts, this trend will continue into the future. By 2040, there will be 1.22 births in Larimer County for every death compared to 1.44 births per death in 2017. This trend underscores the role of positive net migration as a driver for population growth. The State Demographer predicts that net migration will continue to be positive to 2040. -100,000 -50,000 0 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1990 1994 1998 11 Setting the Stage | Demographics Demographics Our millennial population is growing. Millennials (residents between the ages of 20 and 34) were the largest age cohort in Fort Collins, accounting for 35% of the total population in 2015. As a cohort, millennials saw the largest amounts of growth between 2000 and 2015, increasing by 16,787 residents during this period. Millennials grew at a faster average annual rate than the population as a whole between 2000 and 2015, reflecting rising enrollment at Colorado State University (CSU). Our population is getting older. Despite the larger population of millennials, our population is increasingly older. The fastest rates of growth between 2000 and 2015 were seen primarily among older age cohorts. The 60 to 64 year old cohort grew at more than 3x the rate of the for the population as a whole. We have fewer families and fewer children. Between 2000 and 2015, the percentage of households that identified as family households decreased from 56% to 53%. Furthermore, families are increasingly made up of empty- nesters or couples who do not have children. Families with children accounted for 22% of all households in 2000, dropping to 13% in 2015. Despite this, the average family size remained stable over this period, decreasing slightly from 3.01 to 2.99 people per family. Overall, children are a smaller share of our population. The population of 10 to 14 year olds grew by an average annual rate of just 0.2% between 2000 and 2015. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Under 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 59 years City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 12 Our population is becoming more diverse. In 2015, 81% of residents identified as being white alone, with no Hispanic or Latino heritage. This is a smaller percentage than in 2010 when 83% of residents fell into this category. In addition, the population under 18 was even more diverse that year, with just 65% identifying as white. Growing Hispanic/Latino population. In 2015, the largest minority group was Hispanics or Latinos. That year, 11% of the population identified as being of Hispanic or Latino origin compared to 9% in 2000. Far from a uniform group, 66% of residents who identified as Hispanic or Latino were of Mexican heritage, 6% were of Puerto Rican heritage, and 2% were of Colombian heritage. The remaining 26% of the Hispanic or Latino population had origins in a range of other countries in the Caribbean, Central America, and South America. 13% 22% 40% 34% 25% 26% 22% 18% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2015 2000 Percent of All Households Household Composition Fort Collins, 2000 and 2015 With children under 18 With no children under 18 Family Households Living alone Not living alone Non-Family Households �a�ial��t�ni� �o�position Fort Collins, 2010 and 2016 2010 Hispanic/Latino (10%) White (83%) Asian (3%) Black (1%) Other (3%) 2016 Hispanic/Latino (13%) White (79%) Asian (3%) Black (2%) Other (3%) OUR AGING POPULATION Despite a growing population, large number of students, and relatively low median age, the number of Fort Collins residents over the age of 65 is growing. Between 2000 and 2015, the entire population grew at an annual average rate of 2.1% while age groups older than 65 largely grew at faster rates. For example, the number of residents between the ages of 65 and 74 grew at 4.7%, increasing from 3.8% of the entire population to 5.6% during this period. Estimates for the growth of particular age groups are only available for Larimer County, but Fort Collins is likely to see similar trends. According to the Colorado State Demography Office, the population of Larimer County will increase at an average annual rate of 1.4% between 2018 and 2050, while age groups over 65-years old will largely grow at faster rates. As shown in the chart above, the rate of growth for these age groups will vary over this period. While initially, rates of growth will remain high for populations in the 65-74 and 75-84 age cohorts, rates of growth will begin to slow over the coming decade, even dropping below zero, before increasing again in approximately 2032 and 2042, respectively. However, the sustained growth of residents 85 and over is notable, as this age group is estimated to see rates of growth in excess of that for the population as a whole throughout most of the coming 30 years. This age group is typically most in need of long-term care and other specialized services. Expanding these and other services used by older adults will be a key consideration moving forward if we are to maintain a good quality of life for our residents and support their ability to remain in Fort Collins as they age. ���� �nnual ��o�t� Fort Collins, 2000-2015 ����� ���� ����� ���� ��� ���� ��� P�P ���� ���� �nnual ��o�t� Larimer County, 2018-2050 ����� ���� ����� ���� ������� ��� P�P ���� -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Rate of Change Rate of Population Change Larimer County, 2018 - 2050 65-74 75-84 85+ ALL POP Setting the Stage | Demographics 13 City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 14 Household income growth has stagnated. The median income for a Fort Collins household in 2015 was $55,650. While it would appear that the median household incomes increased from $44,459 in 2000, the median income actually decreased once the 2000 median income is adjusted for inflation. In 2015 dollars, the median income for a household in 2000 was $61,600, almost $6,000 more than in 2015. Household incomes vary by the race/ethnicity of householders. Although the median household income for all households was $55,650 in 2015, household incomes varied depending on the race of the household. Households with White households (not of Hispanic MEDIAN HH INCOME 2015 $55,650 MEDIAN HH INCOME 2000 (IN 2015 $) POVERTY & $61,600 OFF-CAMPUS STUDENTS Measuring poverty in Fort Collins can be challenging given the presence of a large student population. Since students generally do not have time to be enrolled in a university full-time and have a full-time job, many earn incomes that would qualify them as living in poverty. However, this is not quite accurate since some (although not all) receive financial support from their school and/or their parents to help them cover living expenses incurred while attending school. While on- campus students are not included in poverty measures, those living off campus are counted, inflating the poverty rate in Fort Collins as measured by the US Census. To account for this, the US Census provides estimates of poverty rates excluding students living off-campus. The Census estimated that 13.5% of students in Fort Collins lived off-campus in 2016. When they are included in poverty measures, the rate 15 Setting the Stage | Demographics or Latino origin) had a median income of $57,562 while median incomes for non-white racial and ethnic groups ranged from $53,906 for American Indians/ Alaskan Natives to $41,700 for Blacks/African Americans. More of our residents are living in poverty. The rate of residents living in poverty has increased from 14% in 2000 to 17.8% in 2016. Excluding students living off-campus, the poverty rate was estimated to be approximately 10.1% in 2016. Estimates for poverty excluding students are not available for 2000, but are available for 2011. In that year, 11% of residents, excluding students, were living in poverty. Educational attainment varies by race/ethnicity. The majority of our population 25 and over has a secondary degree or more; however, educational attainment varies significantly among different racial and ethnic groups. For example, 55% of Whites (not of Hispanic or Latino origin— the majority of the city’s residents) had received a bachelor’s degree or higher in 2015, compared to 27% of Hispanics or Latinos (the city’s largest minority group). Similarly, rates of residents without a high school diploma were highest among minority populations, particularly Hispanics and Latinos (20%). Hispanic and Latinos 25 and over account for 10% of this age group citywide, but account for 42% of residents with less than a high school diploma, and 5% of residents with a bachelor’s degree or higher. BACHELOR’S DEGREE OR HIGHER 52% SOME COLLEGE, NO DEGREE 20% HIGH SCHOOL 14% ONLY NO HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA 4% Max Educational Attainment Fort Collins, 2015 City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 16 HEALTH & EQUITY INDEX The Health & Equity Index was developed by the Larimer County Department of Health and Environment, and combines a range of indicators measuring health and social equity across all Census block groups in Fort Collins. A total of ten indicators were used to create the index score, seven addressing equity and three addressing health: Equity Indicators • Population under 18 • Population over 65 • Households at or below the federal poverty level • Hispanic/Latino population • Non-white (minority) population • Households without a vehicle • Disability status Health Indicators • Adult obesity • Adults with no leisure time physical activity • Adults who experienced poor mental health for more than 14 days Scores were assigned to each block group for each indicator on a scale of 0 to 10 based on that block groups decile ranking among all block groups in the city (for example a block group located in the 7th decile was given a score of 7). All scores were added together for a final score that ranges from 0 to 100, with 100 indicates block groups with the greatest share of vulnerable or disadvantaged populations. 17 Setting the Stage | What Does it Mean for City Plan? What Does it Mean for City Plan? Growing population A growing population means that City Plan will need to provide guidance on where and how our community will accommodate between 69,000 and 70,000 additional residents over the next 20 years. This includes considerations for the types of housing the plan should encourage, the transportation system we will strive to develop, and the services and amenities the City will need to provide in the future. A growing population also has implications for the City’s climate action goals; more people generally means more greenhouse gas emissions. Balancing growth with efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will be essential if we are to remain on track to meet our goal of being a carbon neutral community by 2050. The implications of regional growth will also need to be considered in the City Plan process. Although the City has little control over how and where growth occurs outside of its planning area, these decisions are likely to have impacts on Fort Collins residents. For example, more people living in the region could lead to greater volumes of commuters traveling into Fort Collins, adding vehicles to our transportation system and increasing our output of greenhouse gases. Adapting to our changing population. A number of demographic trends examined in this section of the report will influence the kinds of services and programs the City might need to or want to provide in the future. For instance, the growth in residents over the age of 65, coupled with the decline in families with children and slow growth in residents under the age of 19 suggest that the City may need to begin tailoring its programs and services towards seniors, and may not need to provide as many programs and services for youth as it did in the past (not that it would stop providing these services altogether). As our population continues to become more diverse in the future, the City may need to change the way it provides information to residents or seeks input during public engagement processes. While the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that there is only a small percentage of residents who do not speak English well, it may be necessary for the City to begin providing materials in other languages (such as Spanish), for example. Additional focus may need to be given towards the kinds of events and programming sponsored by the City, with an eye towards increasing the representation of cultures, religions, and other minority groups so that all residents feel like welcomed, valued, and celebrated members of the community. Promoting equity. Different aspects of equity have been highlighted throughout this chapter. As illustrated, who you are and where you live in Fort Collins can place you on a different path than a resident from a different background or part of the city. While City Plan alone cannot solve issues of inequality, the update process should look at potential updates, additions, or other changes to the plan through the lens of equity to ensure that policies do not have disparate impacts on one group over another. As our city becomes increasingly diverse, it will be important to understand the barriers facing certain groups or neighborhoods (whether they be related to poverty, health, employment, educational attainment, etc.) to ensure all residents have access to the services, resources, and opportunities they need to lead happy and successful lives. 18 FOCUS AREA #1: BUILDOUT & LAND SUPPLY Photo: City of Fort Collins 18 19 S ince the first iteration of City Plan was adopted in 1996, the City of Fort Collins has promoted a compact development pattern by encouraging higher densities in infill and redevelopment areas, preserving environmentally sensitive areas and rural lands, and providing efficient public services. The presence of the City’s Growth Management Area (GMA) and successful partnerships with Larimer County and surrounding jurisdictions have helped to reinforce these objectives and ensure that parks, open space, and agricultural land play an important role in the city’s overall land use pattern. Although the GMA boundary has helped reinforce the city’s infill and redevelopment focus over time, most residential and non-residential development that occurred over the past decade occurred outside of areas currently targeted for infill and redevelopment in City Plan. Vacant buildable land within Fort Collins and its Growth Management Area (GMA) is becoming in- creasingly scarce. If current development trends con- tinue, the city will exhaust its supply of buildable land by 2040. However, the available supply of residential land should be more than enough to meet the needs for our expected 2040 population, particularly when redevelopment opportunities are taken into account. As we look to the future, it is important to consider how we might best use the limited supply of vacant land that remains to meet our future needs and to support the development of the types of places residents would like to see in our community. De- sires for open space, less traffic, and preserving the suburban character of residential areas will need to weighed against other desires and goals, such as becoming a carbon neutral community, discouraging sprawl, and supporting the development of afford- able and workforce housing. 19 City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 20 Where We Are Today Residential development trends have fluctuated significantly. Trends in residential development in Fort Collins have fluctuated since 2000. Permits peaked in 2001 and bottomed out in 2009 during the Great Recession. Since 2010, residential development has been trending upward, with strong years seen in 2013 and 2016. However, since 2009 9,000 new residential units were built in Fort Collins compared to 11,237 between 2000 and 2008. Housing built today is increasingly diverse. Since 2000, single-family units as a share of total units built have been declining. Between 2000 and 2008, single-family units (both attached and detached) accounted for 63% of all residential units built. In comparison, single-family units accounted for 44% of all units built between 2009 and 2017. Overall, 55% of the dwelling units built since 2000 have been single-family units. Commercial development hasn’t returned to pre-recession levels. Commercial development activity between 2000 and 2017 peaked in 2001 (with 94 projects permitted by the City) before declining to just 16 projects permitted in 2009. The average number of projects permitted between 2009 and 2017 was around half the number permitted between 2000 and 2008. Distribution of Existing Land Use Fort Collins & GMA, 2017 City Limits 30% 29% 12% 8% 6% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% City & GMA 25% 17% 29% 7% 6% 6% 3% 3% Focus Area #1: Buildout & Land Supply | Where We Are Today 21 Existing Land Use Fort Collins, 2017 Vacant Other Industrial Public/Quasi-Public Agriculture Parks, Natural Areas, and Open Space Low-Density Residential Medium- & High-Density Residential Commercial Mobile Homes City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 22 Recent development has occurred primarily at the city’s periphery. Between 2000 and 2017, the majority of new residential development occurred on vacant land in areas at the periphery of the city. New development during this period included a number of large subdivisions, such as Westchase, Fossil Lake, Registry Ridge, and Ridgewood Hills. Only a small portion of recent development has been in areas targeted by City Plan. City Plan identifies Targeted Infill and Redevelopment Areas within Fort Collins where the city would focus on reducing barriers to infill and redevelopment and concentrate investments in infrastructure. However, only 22% of the residential units built in Fort Collins since 2012 (the first full year following the adoption of City Plan) were located in one of these areas. Even fewer (6%) of commercial projects were built in one of these areas during this period. Recent Development Activity Fort Collins, 2000 - 2017 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 4 Type of Development City Plan Development Areas Single-Family Detached Single-Family Attached/Multifamily Commercial Mixed-Use Activity Centers Targeted Redevelopment Areas Downtown Colorado State University North College East Mulberry Corridor Campus West Foothills Mall Midtown Corridor Harmony Corridor 1 2 3 Focus Area #1: Buildout & Land Supply | Where We’re Headed 23 Where We’re Headed Vacant land is a small portion of the GMA. There remains approximately 6,900 acres of vacant buildable land remaining within Fort Collins and its Growth Management Area (GMA). This represents 14% of the GMA. Of this vacant land, 62% of the acreage is located within the city limits, with the remaining 2,600 acres located in the GMA. Our supply of vacant land is decreasing. There were approximately 9,580 acres of vacant land in the GMA in 2008, 2,680 more acres than in 2017. This represents a loss of 298 acres per year during this period. Should this trend continue, the city will exhaust its supply of vacant land by 2040, the planning horizon for this update to City Plan. Land supply is constrained by natural hazards. Of the 6,900 acres of vacant buildable land, nearly 21% are constrained by flood hazards and/or geologic hazards. The majority of vacant land is zoned for residential uses. Approximately 60% of vacant buildable land in the city’s GMA is zoned for some sort of residential use. In all, the vacant land could support the development of 25,736 housing units. Under existing zoning, 36% of these units would be low-density housing types (under 5 du/ac), 37% would be medium- density housing types (5-20 du/ ac), and 27% would be high-density housing types (over 20 du/ac). The majority of non-residential vacant land is zoned for commercial uses. Vacant land within the city and GMA could support up to 21,866,543 square feet of non- residential development. The majority (44%) of this development could support for employment uses. An additional 6,883,950 square feet of commercial/mixed- use development and 5,270,194 square feet of industrial uses could be built on vacant land. Potential for more supply through redevelopment. City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 24 Redevelopment is likely to produce higher-density housing. Of the 2,700 dwelling units that could be created through redevelopment, the majority (43%) would be high-density housing (greater than 30 du/ac) types based on current zoning. Little potential for industrial redevelopment. Non-residential development that occurs on these redevelopment parcels will mainly be commercial or mixed-use in nature. Of the 3.7 million square feet of development that might be supported on these parcels, just 11% would support industrial uses. Residential capacity is likely sufficient for future growth. In 2017, there were approximately 75,230 dwelling units with Fort Collins and its GMA. An additional 5,770 units have been approved and/or are under construction. Factoring in the supply of housing units available on vacant buildable land and through redevelopment, the total units available at full buildout would be approximately 106,114 units. Assuming the average household size remains at 2.37 persons per dwelling units, this supply of housing could support approximately 252,970 residents. This is around 16,000 to 17,000 more residents than is forecast to live in Fort Collins by 2040. However, this analysis does not consider more specific needs of households based on their incomes, life-stages, etc. which could result in shortage of certain kinds of housing (e.g., high-density housing) Characteristics of Development Potential Fort Collins & GMA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Commercial Square Feet (Vacant Lands) Commercial Square Feet (Infill/Redevelopment) Employment Square Feet (Vacant Lands) Employment Square Feet (Infill/Redevelopment) Industrial Square Feet (Vacant Lands) Industrial Square Feet (Infill/Redevelopment) Distribution of Non-Residential Development Capacity by Use 6.9 million Square Feet 9.7 million The Road Ahead... 25 Focus Area #1: Buildout & Land Supply | Where We’re Headed [The page intentionally blank.] 26 FOCUS AREA #2 HOUSING ACCESS Photo: City of Fort Collins 26 27 T he demographic composition of Fort Collins is diversifying. As shown previously, household sizes are decreasing, there is an influx of younger residents, the existing population is aging into re- tirement, there are fewer families with children, and the ethnic composition of residents is diversifying as well. All of these trends are expected to continue over the coming decades. As a result, the composition of demand for housing in Fort Collins will undoubtedly shift. Some of these shifts are being driven by diver- sifying preferences from younger residents wanting housing walkable to jobs, retail, and entertainment and from older residents who no longer have kids and the desire and/or ability to maintain their single family detached home. As well, the economic growth of the City and quality of life is attracting more, higher paying jobs and more new residents to fill these jobs. Housing construction has not been keeping up with growth (at least in the City of Fort Collins). As a result, housing prices have grown steadily over the past 5 to 10 years. These pressures have made housing affordability an ever important issue as the City tries to ensure the ability for residents of all economic status and income to live and work in Fort Collins. 27 City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 28 Where We Are Today Our supply of housing has grown... There were 66,689 housing units in Fort Collins in 2016, an increase of nearly 18,930 units since 2000. This 2% annual rate of growth matched closely with that seen in all of Larimer County over this same period. ...but not as quickly as our supply of jobs. Since 2010, the rate of job growth in Larimer County as a whole has out-paced the rate of housing development. Between 2010 and 2016, the county saw jobs increase by an annual average rate of 3.2%, while the number of housing units increased by just 1.3% over this same period. Housing vacancy rose slightly. Since 2000, the number of vacant housing units in Fort Collins has grown. However, the rate of vacancy has grown only slightly, increasing from 3.9% in 2000 to 4.4% in 2016. Fewer young people own homes. While overall the number of household who rent their homes has increased in Fort Collins, this shift has been much more pronounced among householders younger than 34. Between 2000 and 2016 the number of householders in this age group who owned their home dropped from 28% to 20%. This 8% shift was much greater than the 4% shift seen for all age groups over this same period. Rates of homeownership greatest among older residents. Across all age groups, approximately 57% of households lived in homes that they owned. However, there is significant variation in rates of homeownership within different age groups. Only 20% of householders under 35 owned their homes in 2016 compared to 70% of householder over 35. Our mix of housing today is similar to 2000. Despite shifting demographics, the mixture of housing types (defined by the number of units in Focus Area #2 Housing Access | Where We Are Today 29 Rents are also increasing. During the third quarter of 2017, the average monthly apartment rental rate in Fort Collins was $1,310. This marks an increase from 2000 when rental rates were $658, nearly half of rents today. The annual rate of growth in monthly rents was similar to that seen for for- sale housing, increasing at a rate of 4.1% between 2000 and 2017. Our rental market continues to be tight. The vacancy rate of apartments in Fort Collins during the third quarter of 2017 was 3.7%. Generally, economists consider vacancy rates below 5% to be indicative of a tight rental market. Vacancy rates have been below 5% in Fort Collins since 2009. 60 80 100 120 140 160 Changes in Home Prices and Rents Fort Collins, 2000 - 2017 Average Home Sale Price Values Indexed, 2000 = 100 Average Apartment Rental Rate 61% 73% 80% 76% 80% 84% 80% 70% 70% 62% 52% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Share of homes sold aordable to median income households Housing Opportunity Index Fort Collins, 2007 - 2017 25% 34% 6% 6% 22% City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 30 Housing is becoming less affordable. Overall, housing has become less affordable in Fort Collins. Among all households, 38% spent more than 30% of their incomes on housing costs in 2016 compared to 34% in 2000. Renters are feeling the crunch more than homeowners. Housing affordability varies considerably by tenure type. In 2016, 59% of renter households paid more than 30% of their income towards rent compared to just 17% of owner households. Indeed, the incidence of owner household paying more than 30% of their income towards rent decreased since 2000, but increased for renter households over this same period. Gap between median incomes and median home sales prices. In 2015, the median household income was $55,650. With this income, the median household could afford a home of approximately $199,900. However, the median home price in 2015 was $302,000, a gap of over $100,000. This gap has widened since 2015, as the median home price has grown to over $350,000. Focus Area #2 Housing Access | Where We’re Headed 31 Where We’re Headed Demand for housing will exceed supply. A forecast of future housing demand was completed as part of the City Plan update process to better understand the demand for different housing types among different types of households by the year 2040. The demand forecast found that population growth will result in demand for approximately 30,480 additional housing units by 2040. This is about 2,000 more units than the 28,440 units that could be built on vacant buildable land or through redevelopment in Fort Collins. However, this does not hold true for all housing types. There looks set to be a surplus of around 4,200 medium-density units, while low-density and high-density housing are likely to have shortages of around 3,700 and 2,500 units, respectively. Demand will be greatest for low- and high-density housing. Demand for low-density (5 du/ ac and under) and high-density (20 du/ac and over) housing will account for around 45% and 35% of the additional demand for housing by 2040, respectively. The remaining 20% of units demanded are estimated to be medium-density housing types (between 5 and 20 du/ac) such as duplexes, townhomes, and small condo or apartment buildings. High-density housing will make up a larger share of our housing. If the supply of housing follows estimated demand, the share of housing that is a high-density housing type will increase. In 2016 approximately 10% of housing units were high- density. This share is expected to increase to 18% by 2040. Fewer young people will own homes. Following the trend observed over the past two decades, the share of younger households (under 35) is estimated to decrease between today and 2040. Rates of homeownership for households in all other age 32 FOCUS AREA #3: ECONOMIC HEALTH Photo: City of Fort Collins 32 33 T he economic strengths of Fort Collins are aligned with the identity of the City. Home to Colorado State University and at the base of the Rocky Moun- tains, Fort Collins is a community rooted in quality educational options and natural assets and amenities that promote and encourage a healthy lifestyle. The two largest industries in Fort Collins, Education and Health Care, reflect these major assets. These assets that have produced an educated workforce and a high quality of life have historically attracted large employers in manufacturing and technology to lo- cate in the City. Fort Collins is also the center of a growing region as the County Seat of Larimer County. Significant growth in the region and along the Front Range of Colorado over the past 20 to 30 years has shifted economic activity within Northern Colorado, creating multiple economic centers. This increased regional competition is both a threat to economic opportu- nities but also a growing opportunity to promote the region as major destination for a variety of employers and workers. As the City looks to promote a healthy and sustain- able economy routed in its community values, City Plan will have to address emerging issues new to the region. Threats to the City’s economic health include growing impacts of climate change, the regional and national competition for employers, workers, and funding for education. As well, as the City reaches the edges of its growth boundary, the areas needed to support economic growth are limited and harder to develop either due to a lack of infrastructure, compli- cations with redevelopment, and/or existing physical constraints. 33 City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 34 Where We Are Today The economies of communities in the region are increasingly intertwined. Fort Collins is the largest city (in terms of population) and economy (in terms of jobs) along the northern Front Range. While in the past, cities in our region (Fort Collins, Loveland, and Greeley) have functioned as stand-alone communities with distinct economies, they and their economies are increasingly intertwined. As a result, economic activity has shifted somewhat away from traditional downtown/city centers towards I-25. Health care is the largest industry in our county. Larimer County has a total employment of 153,103 as of 2016. The largest industries in Larimer County are Health Care (21,111 jobs), Retail Trade (18,582 jobs), Accommodation and Food Service (18,175 jobs) and Education (17,295 jobs). Combined these four industries account for half of the jobs in Larimer County. County employment growth has been steady. Over the past 20 to 30 years, the County has grown steadily in employment with periods of accelerated employment growth. Employment in the County grew by 4.5 percent annually from 1990 to 2000. The two national economic recessions (01) and (08-09) that occurred from 2000 to 2010 reduced the rate of employment growth in the County to 0.8 percent annually. Since 2010 however, the County has begun to grow at a faster rate (3.2 percent annually from 2010 to 2016), producing more new jobs annually in this period than in the 1990’s. Largest growth seen in health care. The traditional major industries in the County (Health Care, Retail, Food/Accommodations, and Education) continue to experience strong employment growth. The industries with the largest amount of employment increase since 2010 Focus Area #3: Economic Health | Where We Are Today 35 Our local economy remains grounded in healthcare and education. The City of Fort Collins is home to over 85,000 jobs. Traditionally, the economy has been driven by education and health care. Combined these two industries accounted for over 27,000 jobs in 2016. However, the City has a long history of entrepreneurship and development of new ideas and products that serve not just residents but the nation and the world. As a regional hub for retail and entertainment, jobs in these industries (retail trade and food service and accommodations) are major component of the city’s economic base. Growing number of jobs. Fort Collins has a growing number of employment opportunities available to residents and other workers in the region. Employment in the city grew by approximately 10,000 jobs between 2010 and 2015. Service providing industries dominate our employment opportunities. Of all employment in Fort Collins during 2015, 82% of was in industries that provide a service. In contrast, industries that produce goods accounted for 12% of employment (up from 10% in 2010). Public administration (i.e., government) rounded out the remaining 6%. Jobs are growing faster than housing. Between 2010 and 2015, the number of jobs in Fort Collins increased by 15%. During this same period, the number of housing units increased by 8%. As such, the ratio of jobs to housing increased from 1.18 in 2010 to 1.25 in 2015. Average Wages for Selected Industries Larimer County, 2016 $44,125 $47,498 $27,855 $18,022 $82,669 $82,796 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 36 Primary industries are the largest component of our economy. Industries in Fort Collins are divided into three categories: Target and Other Primary Industries, Business Support Services, and Community Support Services. Of these, jobs in Target and Other Primary Industries account for 45% of all jobs in the City, followed by 36% in Community Support Services and 19% in Business Support Services. Industry specializations. The largest industries in Fort Collins are also the industries that the City has higher concentrations of as compared to the State of Colorado. Education and Manufacturing have location quotients of 2.0 and 1.5 respectively, which means they have higher concentrations of employment in Fort Collins than in the State of Colorado. Fort Collins has much lower concentrations of Wholesale Trade and Transportation and Warehousing, as these industries have location quotients of 0.4 and 0.2, despite the growing number of jobs in these industries in Larimer County. Wages are growing. Wages in Larimer County have grown by 5.9% annually over the past six years, indicating that even when accounting for inflation, wages are growing significantly. The City’s six largest industries have a wide variety of average annual wages, with some much higher than average and some well below the County average. 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 37 Focus Area #3: Economic Health | Where We Are Today COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS The City accounts for the majority of commercial and industrial space in the County including nearly 70% of the office space in Larimer County. However, over the past 10 years the City has been capturing a decreased share of new commercial and industrial development. Neighboring communities have been able to attract and develop competitive job and retail centers, primar- ily centered along I-25. As the labor force has become more interconnected within the region, I-25 has grown in importance and the market has responded. The City of Fort Collins has not made the same proactive efforts to grow along I-25. The City of Fort Collins captured 45 to 46% of office and retail development since 2007, and only 34% of industrial space. The declining capture illustrates this growing competition from neighboring communities for new development. The job growth in the past five to seven years has been driving demand for spaces for businesses to locate. Vacancy rates for office, retail and industrial space in the City and Larimer County are low and in most cases indicating demand for new development. This is espe- cially true for office and industrial space in Fort Col- lins, with vacancy rates near 3%. Average rental rates, however, for office and industrial are equal to or less than the county as a whole, which may indicate that the City’s inventory of spaces are not as attractive as elsewhere in the county. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fort Collins Larimer County Fort Collins Larimer County Inventory Average Rents $16.05 $22.11 $19.53 $18.51 $9.44 $9.36 3.7% 4.7% 6.0% 3.5% 3.1% 6.8% New Development 2007 - 2017 Vacancy Rates Oce 7.6 million sq ft 840k sq ft 1.0 million sq ft 1.5 million sq ft 620k sq ft 1.2 million sq ft 11.3 million sq ft 1.7 million sq ft 12.0 million sq ft 9.5 million sq ft 8.5 million sq ft 3.4 million sq ft Retail Industrial/Flex Oce Retail Industrial/Flex Oce Retail Industrial/Flex City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 38 Where We’re Headed Job growth will continue. It is estimated that employment in Larimer County will grow at an annual rate of 1.9%, adding over 85,000 jobs between 2015 and 2040. Rate of job growth will continue to exceed housing growth. As in previous years, the rate of job growth is expected to exceed the rate of housing growth. By 2040, the ratio of jobs to housing will be around 2.55. This trend is likely to result in businesses depending ever more on in-commuters from surrounding counties to meet their employment needs. Target and other primary industries will see largest growth. Of the three industry sectors, employment in Larimer County will increase most in target and other primary industries, both in absolute terms (37,621 jobs) and in terms of annual average rates of growth (2% per year). Within this sector, job growth will be greatest for Hospitals and Health Providers. Land demand forecast. In addition to employment estimates, a forecast of non- residential land demand was estimated as part of the City Plan update process. Demand greatest for commercial/mixed-use land. Employment growth will result in a future demand for approximately 12.8 million square feet of commercial/mixed-use land (retail and office space), the greatest demand among the three land use types forecasted. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Target and other Primary Industries Business Support Services Community Support Services Job Growth Forecast Larimer County, 2016 - 2040 2016 2040 Focus Area #3: Economic Health | Where We’re Headed 39 Supply of non-residential development capacity does not match demand. At full build-out, there is likely to be a shortage of land zoned for non-residential uses. Looking to the supply of land, approximately 25.5 million square feet of non- residential development is possible on vacant buildable land and through infill/redevelopment. This is about 500,000 square feet less than the 26 million square feet of development that will be demanded in 2040. Shortages are expected for commercial/mixed-use and industrial development. Looking at specific uses, there appears to be a surplus of employment lands in Fort Collins. However, shortages of commercial/ mixed-use and industrial development are expected. The largest shortage is in commercial/ mixed-use development, with a mismatch of over 2.9 million square feet. Land Demand Forecast Fort Collins, 2016 - 2040 49% 30% 21% Commercial/Mixed-Use Total Demand: 26 million square feet Employment Industrial 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 Commercial/ Mixed-Use Employment Industrial Employment Supply and Demand Fort Collins, 2017 - 2040 2040 Demand 2040 Supply 28k square feet shortage 2.9 million square feet shortage 2.5 million square feet surplus 40 FOCUS AREA #4: TRANSPORTATION & MOBILITY OPTIONS 40 41 T ransportation and mobility in Fort Collins are quickly evolving in order to meet the city’s vi- sion and adapt to changes in technology. Recent previous planning efforts have identified ambitious goals for the city to reduce greenhouse gas emis- sions, improve safety for all modes, and reduce single occupancy vehicles through quality multi-modal in- frastructure, and service and programmatic improve- ments. Adoption of these plans and implementation of their recommended prioritized projects have re- sulted in improvements in the transportation network since the 2011 Transportation Master Plan. However, there are vision areas in which the city needs to focus resources in order to address major transportation gaps that remain or have emerged since 2011. Continuing these trends of improved bicycle and pedestrian facilities, increased transit coverage and frequency, and a focus on safety into 2040 will re- quire careful attention in the updated Transporta- tion Master Plan. A number of external factors taking place locally, regionally and nationally will also im- pact how transportation metrics in Fort Collins trend into the future. For example, the increase of Trans- portation-as-a-Service due to quickly evolving tech- nology, the sharing economy, and big data means a decrease in private vehicle ownership but potential induced trips, dead head time, and shift from alter- native modes. The city needs to consider these influencers of travel behavior—land use, technology, demographic shifts, infrastructure, and economic drivers—when recom- mending policies, programs and capital projects as a part of the Transportation Master Plan. 41 City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 42 Where We Are Today Mobility 75% of commuters are driving alone. Only 14% of commute trips are taken by transit, biking, walking, taxi or motorcycle. Consistent average travel time between 2011 and 2016. Travel time on six major corridors changed slightly in both directions, averaging out to no change. Commute trips outside Ft Collins are primarily to the south. Over 50% of interregional trips to/ from Ft Collins are by those who are traveling between their home to the south of the city and work in the city. Population growth outpaced VMT increase. 76% 10% 8% 4% 2% �o�t �ollins �o�e ��a�e ��� ��en�s in �o�t �ollins �i�y�le �a�ilities �i�e�al�s HIGH COMFORT designated EXISTING bike facilities total bike boulevards 94mi 877mi ATTACHED (no buer) (60% of existing sidewalks) 47mi 515mi designated bike facilities bike boulevards 117mi 4mi 4mi LOW COMFORT CYCLIST MILES OF ON-STREET FACILITIES Source: American Community Survey 2011-2015 Source: City of Fort Collins Trac Operations Department 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 College Avenue from Harmony to Mulberry 2016 2011 Taft Hill Road from Focus Area #4: Transportation & Mobility Options | 43 Commute Patterns Fort Collins, 2015 Bicycle and Pedestrian Over 250 miles of on-street bike facilities. On-street bike facilities are categorized as either high comfort or low comfort based on number of travel lanes, traffic speed, vehicle volumes, and type of bicycle facility present. Almost half of facilities, or 121 miles, are low comfort. The city also has 97 miles of paved shared use trails. Fort Collins has a bike share program with hourly, weekly, annual, and student memberships. 91 BIKES DOCKS 21 FC �o�t �ollins �o�e ��a�e ��� ��en�s in �o�t �ollins �i�y�le �a�ilities ��ans�o�t �nnual �i�e�s�ip HIGH COMFORT designated EX bike facilities bike boulevards 94mi 47mi designated bike facilities bike boulevards S College Avenue between Harmony Road and Laurel Street Major Shared Use Paved Minor Shared Use Paved 117mi 4mi 4mi 68mi 29mi LOW COMFORT CYCLIST PROHIBITED MILES OF TRAIL MILES OF ON-STREET FACILITIES Source: American Community Survey 20 Source: City of Fort C 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 College Avenue from Harmony to Mulberry City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 44 40% of sidewalks are missing or too narrow. Transit Transfort runs 22 fixed routes and 2 paratransit services. The MAX route provides Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) service every 10 minutes. Transfort also operates the HORN (the CSU on-campus shuttle) and the FLEX (regional service to Loveland, Berthoud, Longmont and Boulder six days a week).Transfort also offers Dial-A- Ride Paratransit service and Dial-A- Taxi service for eligible users. Other public and private transportation services operate in the region. CDOT runs the Bustang, providing service to Loveland and Denver 7 times a day. There has also been a rise of privately owned shuttles operated by apartments, senior homes, or ride hailing companies. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% ��ans�o�t �nnual �i�e�s�ip Fort Collins, 2000-2016 S College Avenue between Harmony Road and Laurel Street Major Shared Use Paved Minor Shared Use Paved 4mi 68mi 29mi CYCLIST PROHIBITED MILES OF TRAIL �nnual ��ans�o�t �i�e�s�ip in �o�t �ollins 2016 2011 +90% �o�t �ollins Population ��o�t� 2016 2011 +12% Source: City of Fort Collins Source: City of Fort Collins Source: City of Fort Collins Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins MISSING EXISTING BUT NOT ADA COMPLIANT (25% of ex 217m 221mi 1,000,000 Focus Area #4: Transportation & Mobility Options | 45 Ridership increased dramatically after MAX opened. From 2013 to 2016, ridership increased by 78%, during which time the population increased by only 7.5%. This is largely due to the opening of MAX in 2014. Transfort also made changes to routes and service frequency, improving reliability for CSU students and faculty. MAX, routes 31 and 3 have the highest productivity. The MAX provides frequent and rapid service connecting several activity centers throughout the city. Route 31 and route 3 directly connect the CSU campus to Rams Village. Routes 31 and 3 provide 10-15 minute headways, but end their service at 6PM. Route 32 also provides service connecting Rams Village and CSU throughout the day and into the evening when route 31 and route 3 are no longer operating but due to its loop configuration and longer headways between buses, this route is less desirable and has significantly lower ridership and productivity. Increase in passengers per revenue hour. Productivity rose in 2014 with a 25% increase in revenue hours due to the opening of MAX and increase in frequencies and hours for several other routes. Transfort improved both ridership and productivity. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ��ans�o�t �nnual �i�e�s�ip Fort Collins, 2000-2016 boulevards ATTACHED (no buer) (60% of existing sidewalks) 47mi 515mi designated bike facilities bike boulevards S College Avenue between Harmony Road and Laurel Street Major Shared Use Paved Minor Shared Use Paved City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 46 Transit peak travel time and reliability ID weak segments. Segments of roadway with disproportionately high PM peak travel time include Harmony Road from Shields Street to Ziegler Road, Horsetooth Road from McClelland Dive to Timberline Road, Shields Street from Horsetooth Road to Prospect Road, and the intersection surrounding Lemay Avenue and Prospect Road. Reliability was poor for areas along Harmony Road, College Avenue north of downtown, Lincoln Avenue between 9th Street and Timberline Road, and Mulberry Street between Timberline Road and I-25. Safety Crashes decreased in 2016 but fatal crashes increased. In 2016, the city joined the Colorado Department of Transportation’s (CDOT) Moving Towards Zero Deaths initiative. The city’s fatal collision rate is among the lowest in Colorado and peer cities nationally, however, there were still 4,348 traffic crashes in 2016. Eighty percent of these crashes resulted with no injury (property damage only), but there were eight fatalities. Rear end collisions make up 44% of all crashes and almost half of the recorded crashes occurred at signalized intersections. The number of crashes increased from 2012 to 2015 with a decrease in 2016. However, fatal injuries increased from 4 to 8 between 2015 and 2016. ��ans�o�t P�o�u�ti�ity �y �oute Route Passengers 31 3 MAX 2 32 HORN 8 14 18 7 81 19 6 9 10 5 16 12 �ll ��as�es �u��a�y Number of All Crashes 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Fatality Focus Area #4: Transportation & Mobility Options | 47 Bicycle and pedestrian crashes disproportionately result in severe injury. Pedestrian and bicycle crashes account for 4.8% of all crashes, but account for 32% of severe crashes. Almost 90% of crashes involving bicyclists occurred at intersections. Bicycle crashes trended downwards from 2012 to 2015, but increased in 2016. Pedestrian crashes account for 1% of all crashes, but more than 8% of severe crashes. Pedestrian crashes are trending upward and 87% of crashes involving pedestrians result in some level of injury or fatality. About half of all pedestrian crashes are due to motorists failing to yield at a signalized intersection, un- signalized intersection, or driveway. City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 48 Where We’re Headed Mobility Future shifts in commuters driving alone in not known. The mode share of single occupancy vehicles (SOV) in Fort Collins is affected by local and regional trends. Demographic shifts, including an increasing percent of retirees and growing CSU enrollment, translate to a decrease in car ownership and vehicle miles traveled. There is an increasing reliance on the shared economy for transportation, including car share, bike share, ride share and carpool; this shift to Transportation-as-a- Service results in a decrease in SOV due to a decrease in private vehicle ownership, as well as data and platforms that pair riders with similar destinations. However, other trends into the future may lead to an increase in SOV. An increase in same day home delivery means induced shopping and delivery of singular items. Autonomous vehicles is another factor that may result in induced travel, longer trips and zero occupancy vehicles due to the reduction of travel time costs and stress. Travel time on major corridors will change based on multi- modal priorities. As a layered network that prioritizes different modes along different corridors is implemented, travel times will shift. Some major corridors—where biking, walking or transit are prioritized—may see an increase in travel time for vehicles due to changes in the number of general travel lanes, signal timing, and traffic calming devices. However, other corridors, where the automobile is prioritized, may see a decrease in travel time. Employee commuting patterns. Employee commute patterns into and out of Fort Collins will be shaped by a number of factors—the implementation of land use and transportation projects in addition to emerging mobility trends and technologies. Land use changes that will influence travel patterns include the availability of affordable Focus Area #4: Transportation & Mobility Options | Where We’re Headed 49 Bicycle and Pedestrian Expansion of bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure. The 2014 Bicycle Plan identifies a goal of achieving 20% of Fort Collins’ residents commuting by bicycle by 2020. This includes a pilot program for protected bike lanes and 80 percent of residents living within ¼ mile of a high comfort facility. The 2011 Pedestrian Plan recommends a prioritized list of 81 projects including sidewalk gap closures, crossing treatments and grade separated pedestrian crossings. The Plan also identified level of service standards and identified an updated map of pedestrian priority areas throughout the city where a higher level of service is required. Transit Increased ridership and improved reliability. If Fort Collins and Transfort continue to invest in transit infrastructure and services in- line with recent investments in MAX, expand their partnership with CSU, and increase regional connections, it is expected that the recent upward trajectory in transit ridership will continue into the future. The Transfort Strategic Operating Plan recommends long-term changes to the transit network including the transition to a grid network that provides greater route coverage, higher service frequencies, and longer span of service. Refinement of local routes to coordinate with MAX is also recommended and will result in increased ridership. If land use changes take place concurrently with transit service improvements and first last mile strategies are implemented as previous planning efforts recommend, the reach of transit routes will be expanded, and ridership will increase. Expansion of transit markets. The transit market is expected to expand due to recommended increases in density and land use mix, transit oriented development, 50 FOCUS AREA #5: CLIMATE ACTION PLAN IMPLEMENTATION Photo: City of Fort Collins 50 51 F ort Collins was an early adopter of efforts to reduce community-wide greenhouse gas emis- sions (GHG) at the local level. The City adopted initial goals to reduce GHG emissions in 1999, followed by a more comprehensive Climate Action Plan in 2008. In 2015, the City adopted more aggressive goals and a concrete strategy as part of the Climate Action Plan (CAP) Framework, making a commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 80 percent below 2005 levels by 2030, and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Since 2015, the City has engaged staff and leadership throughout the city organization in efforts to imple- ment key initiatives, leading the way for other local governments across the country. These efforts have centered on achieving the City’s near-term goal of reducing GHG emissions by 20 percent below 2005 by 2020. 51 City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 52 Where we are today Overall emissions have decreased since 2005. We are more than halfway to our 2020 goal. As of 2016, the City’s GHG emissions were down 12% (a net reduction of 275,813 Metric Tons) despite a 25% increase in population and a growing economy. This translates to a 28% reduction (or 5 metric tons) per capita since 2005. However, emission attributable to natural gas and water-related uses increased. 4% �our�e o� �reen�ouse �as �m�ss�ons Fort Collins, 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Ground travel emissions come from the combustion of fuel, primarily gasoline and diesel, within the City’s Growth Management Area (GMA). Ground Travel Emissions are produced from the combustion of natural gas, primarily for heat. Natural Gas Estimated emissions from the decomposition of biodegradable waste (e.g., food waste) in the landfill. Solid Waste Emissions from electricity use are caused by fossil fuel combustion. Most of our electricity is generated by coal and hydropower, with a small amount from natural gas, and increasing amounts of renewable wind and soalr resources. Electricity Emissions related to the collection, treatment, distribution, and reclamation of water. Water-related 51% 25% 19% 4% 0.3% Focus Area #5: Climate Action Plan Implementation | Where we are today 53 Zero net carbon energy may be closer than we thought. By 2020 the City is aiming for 20% of our energy to be produced from wind and solar resources and to limit coal resources to no more than 60%. A study by the Platte River Power Authority (PRPA) found that a zero net carbon energy portfolio for Estes Park, Fort Collins, Longmont, and Loveland could be achieved by 2030. If realized, it will contribute significantly to the City’s goal of an 80% overall GHG reduction by 2030. Increasing electrification, including the use of electric vehicles and electric heat pump systems to displace natural gas consumption, would continue to drive down emissions towards the 80% reduction goal. 64% 19% 14% 2% 1%0.5% �ner�� �esour�e ��� Fort Collins, 2016 Coal Hydro Wind Purchases Solar Gas GHG EMISSIONS IN FORT COLLINS How does the City track GHG emissions? The City tracks emissions annu- ally through a community car- bon inventory. The inventory uses 2005 as a baseline year and fol- lows standard protocol to quanti- fy GHG emissions including CO2, CH4, N2O. The inventory fluctuates from year-to-year as we experi- ence the impacts of weather, get access to better data, or learn something new about how GHGs impact the atmosphere. The City makes the results of this inven- tory available through its climate dashboard. What are GHGs Greenhouse gases (GHG) are gas- es in the atmosphere that can absorb and emit heat. Science at- tributes a warming of the Earth’s atmosphere to an increase in GHGs. What is CO2e? Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a GHG emitted naturally and from fossil fuel combustion for energy and City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 54 NATURE IN THE CITY The City of Fort Collins has been committed to protecting natural areas and habitats within the City and region for more than forty years. In 2015, the City adopted the Nature in the City Strategic Plan with the vision of providing a connected open space network accessible to the entire community that provides a variety of experiences and functional habitat for people, plants, and wildlife. Much more than a tradition- al parks and open space plan, Nature in the City was developed with the City’s projected buildout population of 230,000-250,000 in mind. It stresses the importance of creating, retaining, or reclaiming natural elements and systems within the urban core, not just in public parks and open spaces, but as part of established neighborhoods and fu- ture developments. Consistent with other City plans, this vision will be accomplished through a triple-bottom-line approach considering benefits and impacts of environmental, economic, and social variables. Nature in the City identifies three priority goals: 1. Easy access to nature, high quality natural spaces. Ensure every resident is within a 10-minute walk to nature from their home or workplace 2. High quality natural spaces. Conserve, create, and enhance natural spaces to provide diverse social and ecological opportunities. 3. Land stewardship. Shift the landscape aesthetic to more diverse forms that support healthy environments for people and wildlife Ongoing implementation of Nature in the City directly supports the City’s CAP goals by enhancing the natural systems that store and se- quester carbon and providing other environmental co-benefits such as improved air and water quality and reduced water, fertilizer, and pesticide use. Nature in the City plays a critical role in linking the City’s climate, health, and equity goals. Cross-Cutting Benefits Strategies that reduce GHG emissions often have the potential to create multiple benefits across City goals, ranging from improved local economy, human health and well- being, ecological health, community resiliency, and affordability and equity. Strategies should be considered and implemented with these cross-cutting impacts in mind to maximize the potential benefit and avoid focusing on single benefit solutions. The following are some examples that illustrate this: • Reducing land use for single occupancy vehicles (parking and driving lanes) can reduce GHG emissions while allowing for increased green space (habitat), walkability (human health, equity), air quality (human health, equity). • Local foods create local jobs, reduce emissions associated with factory farming and transportation, and promote healthier eating. • Electric vehicles, in conjunction with a decarbonizing grid, Focus Area #5: Climate Action Plan Implementation | Where We’re Headed 55 Where We’re Headed In the past few years, a pathway to a zero carbon City has started to take shape. With the electrical grid moving to- wards increased levels of renewable energy capacity, and the associated carbon emissions falling accordingly, there are a variety of choices that will need to be considered as part of the City Plan update from a CAP and GHG perspec- tive. These choices, and their associated trade-offs, will be driven by the extent to which we pursue the following: Carbon neutrality. Continued push towards a Zero Carbon / 100% renewable grid, supporting the utility effort with distributed renewable resources across the City. Greater electrification. Electrification of everything, from vehicles to home heating, with battery storage to manage grid reliability. Sustainable building practices. Continued push towards aggressive building efficiency targets and programs targeting the existing building stock. Transportation innovations. Increased shift to shared services like car share, ride share, bike share, and eventually a shift towards autonomous vehicles, changing our ideas of “public transit” and enabling greater electrification of the transportation sector and a reduction in land use for mobility. Increased density. Increasing densities along Enhanced Travel Corridors to enable the shared economy, walkability, and preservation of land for green space. Waste reduction. Pursuing zero waste goals, as increasing amounts of the waste stream can be composted or recycled. Outlook to 2050. Based on recent trends, we have the potential to reduce GHG emissions to the 80% mark by 2030, in a manner that is cost competitive with the business-as- usual scenario. However, this goal is only achievable if City Plan lays the groundwork for doing so, in line with the cross-cutting benefits described above. 56 KEY CHOICES FOR THE THE ROAD AHEAD... Photo: City of Fort Collins 56 57 T he information provided in this report will be used to help inform Phases 2 and 3 of the City Plan update process: Community Visioning and Scenario Development. Over the coming months, we will be asking the community to consider a variety of key choices for the road ahead. This section artic- ulates a series of key choices for each of the focus areas to get the conversation started. Key choices take into account: • Major drivers. Population projections, land supply, housing and employment demand, drive our plans for the future, but so do community preferences and desired outcomes. • Plan inputs. Although both qualitative and quantiative inputs will need to be considered as part of the scenarios discussion, key choices are focused primarily on inputs the City Plan can directly influence and inputs we can “test” in light of the major drivers above. For example, how can we most efficiently accommodate future population growth based on our land use patterns, transit service, housing types/ location, and transportation alternatives (origins- destination patterns)? • Potential tradeoffs. Advancing our vision in one focus area may have unintended consequences in another focus area. A critical part of the scenarios discussion will be consideration of the types of tradeoffs the community is willing to make. Housing affordability, neighborhood impacts, commuting/jobs-housing balance, traffic and parking system implications, ridership, GHG, water conservation, energy efficiency, and equity and health implications. Ultimately, we’ll need to determine a preferred direc- tion for the future that recognizes the interdependent economic, social, and enviornmental implications of our policies and decisions. 57 City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 58 As we approach buildout, we must carefully consider how we will make use of our remaining land, and how we will can maximize the potential of underutizlied areas. Some of the many questions we must explore as we consider the road ahead include: • Infill/redevelopment priorities. To what degree are we willing to direct higher-intensity infill and redevelopment to targeted areas? If so, where should such development be encouraged and at what intensities? What tools should we use to encourage redevelopment? • Structure Plan map. What changes to the structure plan map (and zoning code) are we willing to make to ensure the supply of land is sufficient to meet our future needs? • Land use/transportation integration. How can we encourage a land use pattern in the future that allows us to maximize investments made to our transportation systems? Where might investments in transportation be best utilized to help us meet our Climate Action Plan goals? What modes of transportation are best able to serve different types of places in our city? • Neighborhood character. What aspects of Fort Collins make it “Fort Collins”? How can we preserve these characteristics at the same time we encourage redevelopment? What types of development are we not willing to permit in certain areas or neighborhoods? Our housing stock has grown, but still lags behind job growth, leading to fewer opportunities for people employed in Fort Collins to live here. At the same time, the price of housing is increasing faster than increases in incomes. As a result, there are fewer and fewer affordable housing opportunities available for a larger share of the population. Some of the many questions we must explore as we consider the road ahead include: • Higher-density housing. Are we open to encouraging higher-density development in Fort Collins to create more capacity and opportunities for housing, specifically affordable housing? If so, where and how? • Housing diversity. Should we encourage a greater varity of housing options? If so, what tools or approaches should we use? What types of housing should we encourage (e.g., accessory dwelling units, single-family homes on small lots)? What types should we try to limit (if any)? • Affordable housing. Are we willing to devote more resources to the creation of affordable housing units? What affordability level(s) should we target? Should we focus on homeownership, rental housing, or both? • Housing capacity. Are we willing to convert employment or industrial designated lands to residential uses in order to expand our housing capacity? If so, where? Focus Area #1: 59 Key Choices for the The Road Ahead... Vacant land for non-residential development may not be sufficient to meet future needs. Some of the many questions we must explore as we consider the road ahead include: • Economic development. How proactive are we willing to be in promoting economic development? Should we invest resources in addressing infrastructure issues (e.g., lack of water/sewer) within portions of the GMA to support new development? Should we develop incentives to attract retail in order to maintain and/or grow our tax base? • Job diversity. Should we try to attract a wide variety of job types in order to maintain economic opportunities for all residents, or focus our efforts on certain types of jobs in certain industries? • Lands for future employment. Are we willing to accept the loss of employment designated land in order to increase the capacity for housing and/or other uses that help us acheive our goals for the future? What about land designated for industrial development? Or should we preserve such lands and continue to restrict secondary uses (such as residential)? Should we embrace development along I-25 in order to create more areas for economic growth? • Regional collaboration. How involved should we be in regional economic development efforts? What about efforts that would mean promoting other communities in the region ahead of our own? • Jobs-housing balance. Are we willing to accept that a greater portion of our workforce will have to commute into Fort Collins for work? Or should we encourage development of certain types of housing at certain affordability levels so that more workers to live in Fort Collins? Adopting new approaches to transportation planning and operations can allow us to make the most efficient use of limited transportation resources. In addition, technological innovations and new forms of transportation may alter the way we travel. Some of the many questions we must explore as we consider the road ahead include: • Modal priorities/layered network. Which corridors in Fort Collins are best suited for biking, walking, transit, or vehicular traffic? What are the tradeoffs associated with prioritizing one mode over the other? How can we align best transportation investments with land use? • Emerging mobility trends. How should we approach autonomous vehicles, transportation network companies (like Uber and Lyft), and other innovations? How should we manage these trends and new technologies to ensure they are integrated into our existing transportation system? • Level of service methodologies. Are reductions in vehicular level of service (LOS) acceptable along corridors in exchange for supporting other modes City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 60 Many of the near-term Climate Action Plan (CAP) initiatives focus on making changes at the municipal and services provider level. As we approach our 2020 CAP targets and look ahead to our 2030 targets, the community preferences captured in City Plan will shape the next generation of CAP initiatives. Some of the many questions we must explore as we consider the road ahead include: • Density vs. affordability. Are we willing to accept higher-density development in more areas of the of the city in exchange for more affordable housing options that encourage transit usage? If so, where? • Transit investments. Are we willing to invest in the expansion of our MAX system and other transit options in other Enhanced Transit Corridors (e.g., Harmony or College)? If so, what types and where? • Emerging mobility trends. To what extent should we be proactive in regulating and managing autonomous and shared vehicle services to avoid unintended consequences that are antithetical to our broader community goals? • Built environment. Are we willing to support advanced building energy codes and address the existing building stock, and encourage the increased shift to electricity, and the intergration of renewables and green infrastructure into the built environment? • Electric vehicle infrastructure. Are we willing to create the electric vehicle infrastructure needed to support the electric vehicle growth needed to reduce transportation emissions to meet our CAP goals? Focus Area #5: Climate Action Plan Implementation 61 Key Choices for the The Road Ahead... [The page intentionally blank.] 62 REPORT CARD Photo: City of Fort Collins 62 63 The City of Fort Collins is committed to continu- ous improvement. As we embark on this update to City Plan, it is important to step back and assess our progress—since the last update in 2011, but also since City Plan was first adopted in 1997. This section high- lights our successes over the past twenty years, the challenges we face, and opportunities we see for im- provement in each of the principle and policy sec- tions found in City Plan: • Economic Health • Environmental Health • Community and Neighborhood Livability • Safety and Wellness • Culture, Parks, and Recreation • High Performing Community • Transportation These sections generally align with the seven Key Outcome Areas reflected in the City Council’s Strate- gic Plan and the city’s Budgeting for Outcomes pro- cess. This alignment reflects the city’s longstanding commitment to the community of fostering account- ability and transparency. This Report Card draws from the outcomes and measures tracked on the city’s Community Performance Measurement Dashboard, discussions with City staff and stakeholders, and the many department strategic plans and functional plans that support implementation of City Plan on an on- going basis. Grades in each section reflect, at a high level, the degree to which progress is being made on major implementation initiatives in each area. 63 City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 64 ECONOMIC HEALTH Principles and policies in this outcome area support a healthy and resilient economy. This section is supported by the 2015 Economic Health Strategic Plan. GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES Economic Development - Economic Resiliency Successes: • The city has met or exceeded targets on a variety of economic health performance metrics in recent years, including: local un- employment rate, lodging occupancy rates, net percent change in local jobs, and new commercial permit dollar volume per capita. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • To date, buildout has primarily been looked at from a residential standpoint. Buildout for employment uses should be considered as part of future growth scenarios and updated policies to guide the posi- tioning of remaining land. • The overall mix of industrial versus employment uses, and general commercial/retail uses versus mixed-use development must all be considered, along with the viability of designated land for these purposes with respect to access and infrastructure needs. • The affordability of doing business and of living in Fort Collins is an attribute that will impact eco- nomic resiliency. As land and housing prices grow, affordable options for all businesses and residents will need to be addressed. Economic Development - Growth of the Innovative Economy Successes: • The city has created a culture and business environment that supports innovation. Part- nerships with CSU and non-profits, as well investments in incubator spaces, such as Innosphere, have leveraged R&D activities that are creating new local businesses and produces one of the highest rates of patents produced per 10,000 residents in the US. • The facilities and partnerships that foster re- search and development activities, coupled with an attracted talent pool has large, na- tional and international companies funding research in Fort Collins. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • While there are many new businesses being formed in the city and local jobs are growing, there is a need for spaces for these companies to grow into. Limited vacancy in the industrial market and a lack of new Class A office space development may lead companies to look outside of Fort Collins to ex- pand. An assessment of areas currently designated for future employment growth is needed to deter- mine whether they have the attributes needed to attract employers. • The design and formats of modern workspaces have placed a greater emphasis on collaboration and proximity to other companies, entertainment, Report Card 65 GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES Economic Development – Support for Local and Creative Businesses Successes: • The City of Fort Collins has been a sponsor of arts and culture through investments in programs and facilities, such as the Lincoln Center, which help to grow and promote cre- ative businesses in Fort Collins. Its support has diversified into promoting a wider vari- ety of creative spaces (e.g. Carnegie Build- ing, Southeast Creative Community Center). Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • As new businesses grow in the community they need support in a variety of ways and the city of- fers limited support programmatically. The city can expand its efforts to support small businesses with more program efforts and capacity to provide sup- port. • Efforts to create a Creative District in Fort Collins which will help to continue to support and promote the arts and Culture. Economic Development – Redevelopment Areas Successes: • The Midtown Planning and implementation efforts have led to the redevelopment of Foothills Mall and reinvestment in Midtown after many years of planning. • The recently completed Downtown Plan was adopted in 2017 and provides the needed updates to the city’s strategies for continued growth of downtown. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Development in Targeted Infill/Redevelopment Ar- eas like Midtown does not reflect the mix of uses/ intensity supported by adopted plans and policies. Economic Development – Regional Economic Development Successes: • The city, its regional partners involved in economic development, and local business- es leaders have started efforts to create a unified approach to promoting the region for economic growth. The Northern Colora- do Economic Alliance was formed in 2014 by business leaders to develop a collaborative approach to attracting primary businesses and industries to Northern Colorado. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • A unified, regional vision for economic growth has not been established for this new regional collabo- ration. The City of Fort Collins can lead in creating the vision. City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 66 ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH Principles and policies in this outcome area address a wide range of topics to support the protection of the city’s environmental resources, and draw from dozens of supporting plans and policies, includ- ing the Environmental Services Strategic Plan (2016). GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES Environmental Stewardship and Resource Conservation on Private Lands Successes: • Adoption of the Nature in the City Strategic Plan (2015) reinforced the importance of open space and habitat on private land as part of the city’s overall system Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Integration of open space, conservation, and biodi- versity principles as part of future development on remaining greenfield sites within the GMA, as well as part of future infill/redevelopment. Open Lands Successes: • The city’s Natural Areas Program has conserved over 40,000 acres of land since 1992. • Ongoing conservation efforts are focused on the Local and Community Separator Focus Areas—a key companion to the city’s Growth Management Area (GMA). Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Integration of 10 minute walk to nature goal (Nature in the City) as part of City Plan growth scenarios and subsequent Structure Plan/policy updates. • Updates to City Plan policies throughout to reinforce Nature in the City objectives. Energy Successes: • Energy conservation programs and incen- tives have resulted in an increase in local renewable energy production and expand- ed customer support for conservation • Adoption of stronger codes and standards to support conservation and renewable energy use • Though work with the Platte River Power Authority (PRPA) and other partners in the region, the city is continuing to diversify its energy portfolio and reduce reliance on coal and other fossil fuels. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Some energy policies in City Plan lag behind current City initiatives in terms of innovation/best practices. • Ongoing work is needed to reach the city’s long- term net zero energy goals • Stronger policy emphasis is needed in City Plan to improve the community’s preparedness and resil- ience in the face of changes in climate, weather, and resource availability. Report Card 67 GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES Air Quality Successes: • In 2016, the city worked with its partners to develop a Regional Air Quality Tool for monitoring/planning purposes. • The city continues to target reductions in local source contributions to ozone causing pollution (e.g., vehicles and lawn and gar- den equipment), and participate in regional planning for State regulations of transport- ed emissions (e.g., oil and gas) Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • External forces, such as wildfires, have had a nega- tive impact on outdoor air quality multiple times in recent years. • Fort Collins’ ground-level summertime ozone levels continue to be the highest along the Front Range. • An update to the city’s Air Quality Plan is underway and will be coordinated with updates to City Plan policies in this area. Climate Change Successes: • Adoption of Climate Action Plan (CAP) Framework in 2015, with the commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. • Significant progress being made toward CAP implementation; close coordination among City departments on CAP initia- tives. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Broader community conversation about the poten- tial trade-offs between CAP goals and other com- munity goals (e.g., land use, transportation, equity, housing) needed as part of the City Plan process. Waste Resources Management Successes: • Fort Collins currently diverts about 58 percent of its waste stream as a result of recycling, composting, and waste reduction efforts and incentives. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Waste diverted to the Larimer County Landfill con- tinues to increase, and the landfill is approaching capacity. Consideration of future landfill siting op- portunities as part of City Plan growth scenarios/ policies is needed (particularly as they relate to CAP goals) • Ongoing work is needed to reach long-term net zero waste goals within the community and the city or- ganization; stronger emphasis on priority initiatives is needed in City Plan policies Stormwater and Flood Management Successes: • Improvements made and regulations im- plemented as the city recovered from the 1997 floods have made the city more resil- ient; damage from the 2013 floods along City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 68 GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES Water Resources Successes: • The city has had formal policies in place to guide the acquisition, development, and management of the city’s water supplies since 1988 (last updated in 2012), and has fostered a strong conservation ethic within the community and City organization. • The city actively works with regional part- ners, municipal providers, local irrigation companies and others on water issues. • The city has consistently been in full com- pliance with applicable effluent quality requirements. • The NFRMPO is in the process of updating its Traffic Model to allow for consideration of water supply when modeling the im- pacts of future growth. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Multiple water districts serve the GMA, but only one is controlled by the city. Requirements for water rights and costs vary by district, raising concerns about housing affordability, infrastructure capacity, and other considerations. • City Plan growth scenarios and subsequent Struc- ture Plan map/policy updates need to reflect this multi-district dynamic, and be reviewed against the city’s 2012 Water Supply and Demand Management Policy. Poudre River Corridor Successes: • Improvements made and regulations im- plemented as the city recovered from the 1997 floods have made the city more resil- ient; damage from the 2013 floods along the Front Range was minimal in Fort Collins when compared to that sustained by other communities. • The city recently completed a river assess- ment and Report Card for the Poudre River to help the city evaluate operational, man- agement, and policy options for preserving or enhancing the river’s health. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Integrate Nature in the city’s comprehensive biodi- versity goal, and recommendations from the State of the Poudre River Assessment as part of City Plan growth scenarios and subsequent Structure Plan/ policy updates as appropriate. Report Card 69 Principles and policies in this outcome area guide the growth and development of the city. Core values reflected in this section include the community’s longstanding commitment to a compact land use pattern within a well-defined boundary. The Structure Plan map and supporting principles and policies are also contained in this section and address distinctions in use and character between different types of places in the community. COMMUNITY AND NEIGHBORHOOD LIVABILITY GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES Growth Management Successes: • The city has IGAs in place with Larimer County and surrounding jurisdiction to support the implementation of Growth Management Area (GMA) objectives related to compact develop- ment and an interconnected system of open lands. • Community separators were established with Wellington and Loveland on the heels of initial GMA policies in 1997. • Presence of the GMA boundary has helped reinforce City Plan’s infill and redevelopment focus over time. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Some adjustments to the GMA are pending for the I-25 Corridor, raising questions as to how flexible the boundary is intended to be. • In coordination with Larimer County, the city has been working to annex remaining county en- claves in accordance with an existing IGA. Upon annexation, the city is obligated to serve these areas with utilities. One of the largest remaining enclaves includes large portions of the East Mul- berry Corridor. A more in depth analysis of util- ities, fiscal impacts, and land use/transportation considerations will be necessary, and will occur independent of the City Plan process. However, the broad impacts and opportunities associated with the annexation of this area should be con- sidered in the context of the City Plan process— particularly as it pertains to the future of existing service districts and the potential for regional partnerships as a way to expand the city’s service provision capabilities in underserved areas. Infill and Redevelopment Successes: • Based on adopted policies and targeted infrastructure investments, the city has seen significant infill/redevelopment in Targeted Infill/Redevelopment Areas (primarily within Downtown and near CSU). • Infill compatibility standards adopted as part of 2012 Land Use Code amendments • Updated detention requirements for rede- velopment adopted in 2013 to provide more flexibility for infill/redevelopment. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • There is a general lack of alignment between the Structure Plan map and the Land Use Code in Tar- geted Infill/Redevelopment Areas; as a result the City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 70 GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES Housing Successes: • The city has pursued a range of strategies to expand affordable and workforce housing options, as informed by the 2014 Housing Af- fordability Policy Study and 2015-2019 Afford- able Housing Strategic Plan. • The city is an active participant in an ongoing regional housing dialogue sponsored by the Fort Collins Board of Realtors—NoCo Hous- ing Now—to identify approaches to address housing affordability and promote regional collaboration on housing issues. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Although supported by current City Plan policies, accessory dwelling units (ADUs) are not allowed in most zoning districts. • Despite efforts to address affordable housing, housing prices and rental rates continue to grow a fast pace. As well, employment growth con- tinues to outpace housing growth which adds pressure to the housing market and also has in- creased the amount of in commuting. A balanced plan for growth is needed to ensure mis-matches in development trends do not continue to exas- perate affordability issues. • Despite strong policy support, diversification of the city’s overall mix of housing types has been slow. Most new housing built over the last decade has been single-family detached, or single-fami- ly attached/multifamily in the 15-30 du/ac range. High density multifamily (greater than 30 du/ac has been less prevalent in areas where it is de- sired (e.g., Mason Corridor). • Rising home costs are of increasing concern in the city and region. A more in-depth evaluation of housing demand and supply is needed to en- sure the updated plan is aligned with the commu- nity’s housing needs, and to determine whether there are new strategies or tools that should be considered. Community Appearance and Design Successes: • The city adopted Streetscape Standards and Gateway Design Standards in 2013 to ensure public spaces—streets, medians, parkway strips, and I-25 corridor gateways— contribute to Fort Collins’ distinct identity. • Numerous streetscape improvement projects have been implemented. • The city has consistently met or exceeded voluntary code compliance and response time to graffiti removal targets in recent years. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Concerns frequently arise from residents when larger projects emerge that seem out of context, but are in fact consistent with the plan. More em- Report Card 71 GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES Historic Preservation Successes: • The city adopted design guidelines for the Old Town Historic District (2014), River Downtown Redevelopment Zone District (2014), and Old Town Neighborhoods east and west of Down- town (2017) to guide infill and redevelopment and maintain the historic character of these areas. • Work is currently underway on code updates to further address transitions between Down- town and adjacent neighborhoods. • The city has worked to update and streamline policies and procedures that guide the review of historic properties. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • The Historic Preservation program’s foundational plan (an element of City Plan) was last updated in 1996; policy guidance provided as part of the Community and Livability section is minimal. • Strengthen policy foundation for historic pres- ervation and adaptive reuse as part of Structure Plan place types, and other policy sections (e.g., economic health). Noise Pollution Mitigation Successes: • The city has increased enforcement in areas prone to high levels of noise and party com- plaints; resulting in a lower number of com- plaints in 2017, than in prior years. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Continued focus and proactive effort is needed on reducing the number of complaints, especially with the off-campus student population. • Continued focus is needed on efforts to reduce train horn noise along the Mason Corridor. Structure Plan Map Successes: • Key themes that informed the creation of the original Structure Plan in 1997 are firmly em- bedded in City plans and policies throughout the organization and remain valid today. • Although the overall mix of land uses has shifted somewhat, the city’s land use frame- work is generally consistent with what was envisioned in 1997. In particular, the city’s “green” infrastructure—the Poudre River Cor- ridor, and open spaces/community separators have consistently been implemented. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Some Structure Plan concepts have been more difficult to implement (e.g., neighborhood cen- ters and mixed housing types) than others, lead- ing to questions about market viability and other potential barriers. The overall mix of land uses depicted on the Structure Plan map needs to be reviewed and adjusted to reflect evolving trends City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 72 SAFETY AND WELLNESS Principles and policies in this outcome area support a safe community and promote community wellness through opportunities for residents to lead healthy and active lifestyles and support for expanded production of and access to healthy and local foods. One of the key successes in this Out- come Area was the creation of the city’s Department of Social Sustainability in 2012, which promotes healthy, diverse, equitable, accessible community values. The department has completed additional work since then—including a Social Sustainability Strategic Plan, Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis, and Human Services Partners Community Snapshot to help inform City policies and programs in this area. GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES Community Safety Successes: • The city has met or exceeded targets on a va- riety of economic health performance metrics in recent years, including: local unemployment rate, lodging occupancy rates, net percent change in local jobs, and new commercial per- mit dollar volume per capita. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • To date, buildout has primarily been looked at from a residential standpoint. Buildout for em- ployment uses should be considered as part of future growth scenarios and updated policies to guide the positioning of remaining land. • The overall mix of industrial versus employment uses, and general commercial/retail uses versus mixed-use development must all be considered, along with the viability of designated land for these purposes with respect to access and infra- structure needs. Community Wellness – Support for Healthy and Active Lifestyles Successes: • Placeholder - added based on the equity infor- mation provided by staff Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Strengthen equity considerations related to healthy and active lifestyles in the vision, princi- ples, and policies. • Expansion of Safe Community Outcome Area performance metrics to include health and well- ness considerations—building on those estab- lished as part of the Social Sustainability Plan. Community Wellness – Healthy and Local Food Access Successes: • Updated land use code to ensure urban agricul- ture is allowed in every zone district in the city. • Adopted a policy that defines parameters for appropriate agricultural activities—grazing, crop production, and community gardens—on lands managed by the Natural Areas Program • Ongoing partnerships with community or- ganizations to support the development and maintenance of community gardens Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Strengthen equity considerations related to healthy and local food access in the vision, prin- ciples, and policies. • Expansion of Safe Community Outcome Area Report Card 73 Principles and policies in this outcome area support diverse arts and cultural experiences, and parks and recreation opportunities to meet the needs of a changing community. This chapter is supported by a number of supporting plans and policies. GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES Arts and Culture Successes: • Visits and participation at the Lincoln Center and Museum of Discovery have consistently met or exceeded targets since 2015. • The city’s Art in Public Places program has been in place for 20 years and is going strong. Dozens of new installations have either been recently completed, or are currently under- way. • Created an arts and culture directory to provide information and inspiration as to how artists might be of service in the community. • Recommendations established as part of the city’s 2008 Cultural Plan have largely been implemented. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Update City Plan principles and policies as ap- propriate, based on Arts and Culture Plan up- date getting underway in 2018. • Improve low and moderate income citizen ac- cess to, and participation in, City programs and facilities (2016 Strategic Plan) Parks and Recreation Successes: • Usage of the city’s paved trails has consistent- ly met or exceeded targets since 2015. • Several major new park projects are underway or nearing completion, including the Poudre River Whitewater Park, Twin Silo Park, and Crescent Neighborhood Park. • Major upgrades to Avery Park were recently completed and upgrades to City Park and Lee Martinez Park are in the planning stages. • The city is actively working with the City of Loveland and Larimer County to expand re- gional trail connections. • Adoption of the Nature in the City Strategic Plan (2015) reinforced the importance of access to the overall parks and open space system. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Integration of 10 minute walk to nature goal (Nature in the City) as part of City Plan growth scenarios and subsequent Structure Plan/policy updates. • Participation per capita in Natural Areas pro- grams has declined as a percentage of the pop- ulation, although it remains strong. Metrics are currently being reevaluated. • Strengthen equity considerations related to parks and recreation access and availability in the vision, principles, policies, and performance metrics for this outcome area. City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 74 HIGH PERFORMING COMMUNITY Principles and policies in this outcome area support transparency and efficiency within the City of Fort Collins organization, a culture of inclusivity and accessibility, and effective communication. GRADE EVALUATION OF PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES An Active and Engaged Community Successes: • The city actively partners with numerous ac- ademic, philanthropic, non-profit, and grass- roots organizations on a variety of community initiatives. • The city has more than 25 citizen boards and commissions staffed by volunteers for the purposes of studying and making recommen- dations to City Council in specific areas. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Incorporate a stronger focus on social equity and underserved populations as part of out- reach and volunteer initiatives. Effective Local Governance Successes: • The city has continued to improve its Bud- geting for Outcomes approach as means to ensure the services delivered by the city are efficient and aligned with community priori- ties. • The city works collaboratively with others in the region on policy-setting, service provision, transportation, and other issues of mutual significance. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Incorporate a stronger focus on social sustain- ability in City Plan policies and supporting pro- grams. Communications and Technology Successes: • The Access Fort Collins platform allows resi- dents the opportunity to contact the city with questions, comments, and service requests and ensure that their inquiry will be routed to the appropriate team member for follow up. • The city recently established a new, “one- stop” web platform for public engagement (It’sYOUR|MY|OUR FoCO). Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Continued monitoring and refinement of exist- ing web platforms is needed to ensure they are achieving intended outcomes. • City Plan policies should be updated to reflect current City initiatives and best practices. • Recommendation to create a Technology Board to help ensure the city’s technology is accessi- ble, transparent, and efficient has yet to be com- pleted. Report Card 75 TRANSPORTATION Principles and policies in this outcome area support a safe, efficient, and diverse system of transportation that provides a range of mobility options to residents, visitors, employees, and businesses in Fort Collins. GRADE PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES Integrated Land Use and Transportation Successes: • Identification of pedestrian priority areas based on activity centers, schools and transit • Some transit-oriented development has occurred along the MAX line Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Broader community conversation about the potential trade-offs between CAP goals and other community goals (e.g., land use, transportation, equity, housing) needed as part of the City Plan process. • Zoning modifications to reflect high priority transit corridors • Modal priorities that reflect surrounding land use • Improve mandatory implementation of TDM strate- gies • Application of Air Quality Manual as part of TIA pro- cess Mobility Options Successes: • 7% reduction in VMT per capita • Bicycle Wayfinding Network Master Plan (2015) • Bicycle Master Plan (2014) • Completion of 2 ETC plans promoting bik- ing, walking and transit Challenges/Opportunities for improvement: • 40% of sidewalks are insufficient width or missing • 3 bicycle and pedestrian fatalities and 8 total traf- fic-related fatalities in 2016 • ETCs do not identify modal priorities or account for necessary trade-offs • Modify operational strategies to incorporate Trans- portation-as-a-Service Traffic Flow Successes: • Average travel time on 6 major corridors stayed the same (2011 to 2016) despite population growth; less than 3 minutes per mile (Policy T 17.2) • Completion of Air Quality Manual to deter- mine GHG implications of transportation decisions Challenges/Opportunities for improvement: • Travel times are unreliable and impacted strongly by AM/PM peaks • Application of Air Quality Manual in scenario analysis • Expand regional mobility options with interjurisdic- tional transit routes and first last mile strategies City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 76 GRADE PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES Quality Travel Infrastructure Successes: • City to fill in with maintenance stats • Plowing and sweeping of sidewalks and bike lanes Challenges/Opportunities for improvement: • City to fill in with maintenance stats • 40% of sidewalks are insufficient width or miss- ing • Enforcement of snow removal on sidewalks adja- cent to residential properties Increase Awareness Successes: • Implementation of the Bicycle Safety Educa- tion Plan • Safe Routes to School served 28 Public schools and 2 non-public schools in 2016 reaching 12,000 students and 2,700 adults • Joining of CDOT’s Towards Vision Zero • Community awareness and support of the Climate Action Plan Challenges/Opportunities for improvement: • Endorsement of an all-encompassing trip plan- ning app • Increase awareness and policies around TDM strategies • Structure TDM program with TDM coordinator Master Streets Plan Successes: • Application of updated classifications in de- velopment review, development impact fees and planning transportation connections • Update the Master Street Plan Classifica- tion and Larimer County Urban Areas Street Standards cross-sections to address needs for urban arterial and “Green Street” con- cepts as well as other context sensitive de- sign elements. Challenges/Opportunities for improvement: • Develop an overlay map to reflect areas needing a future “Context Sensitive Solutions” Report Card 77 GRADE PRINCIPLES AND POLICIES Transit Successes: • Relocation of the new South Transit Center (STC) with improved amenities • BRT service on Mason Corridor with modifi- cations to local feeder routes • Extension of service hours into early eve- nings and weekends • Partnership with CSU including improve- ment to CSU routes • New regional FLEX route that serves Ft Collins, Loveland, Berthoud, Longmont and Boulder Challenges/Opportunities for improvement: • Complete transition to a grid route configuration • One additional new express routes along the Ma- son Corridor • Further expansion of regional routes and service frequencies • Address routes not currently meeting service tar- gets City Plan | Trends & Forces Report 78 Sources | Sources 79 81 CITY FORT PLANNING COLLINS OUR FUTURE. PLAN TOGETHER. 1 City Plan Update – Trends & Forces 2.13.18 ATTACHMENT 3 Direction Sought 1. Does Council have input regarding any missing data, research, or analysis needed as part of the Trends & Forces report? 2. Does Council have any direction on the key challenges and choices highlighted in the report? 2 3 Overview Updates to… Provide a vision and high-level policy guidance for the next 5-20 years Comprehensive Plan Transportation Master Plan Transit Master Plan 4 Phases & Timeline Trends & Forces 5  Narrative and visual guide to current conditions and trends within the community & region  Highlights challenges and choices for road ahead  Data foundation to guide City Plan update Community Profile Buildout & Development Housing Access Economy & Employment Transportation & Mobility Climate Action Community Profile 6 Key Trends: • Steady population growth • An aging population • Increasing diversity • Fewer households with children Factors: - Ages: under 18, over 65 - Poverty - Non-white population - Disability status - Vehicle availability - Obesity - Mental health - Leisure time activity Health & Equity Index Less vulnerable More vulnerable Community Profile 7 Key challenges & choices  Managing continued growth in Fort Collins and the region  Planning for an aging and more diverse population  Ensuring equitable access to services, resources, and opportunities Buildout & Development 8 Key Trends: • Vacant lands in GMA diminishing • Development activity transitioning to more apartments • Vacant lands shifting outside City utility service areas Vacant Lands in the GMA 2008: 9,600 acres 2017: 6,900 acres 28% decrease Buildout & Development 9 Key challenges & choices  Values and priorities for use of remaining lands in the GMA  Utility service availability, pricing, and impacts on timing of development  Impacts of growth in nearby communities on mix of land uses in Fort Collins  Updating expectations to accommodate increased infill and redevelopment Housing Access 10 Key Trends: • Fort Collins is creating more jobs than housing units • Wages are not keeping pace with rent & home prices • Housing capacity is insufficient to meet long-term demand Housing Opportunity Index, 2007-2017 Share of homes sold that are affordable to a family earning median income Housing Access 11 Key challenges & choices  It will be difficult to achieve long-term housing goals given current trends  Fort Collins will import an increasingly larger proportion of its work force  Changes to land use mix to address mismatch of housing supply and demand SL6 Slide 11 SL6 Is there any conversation about homeownership? ie. du type condo v. apartment? Seth Lorson, 2/1/2018 Economy & Employment 12 Key Trends: • Fort Collins capturing less regional office, retail & industrial demand • Steady job growth expected through 2040 • Constraints approaching for future office/industrial development Nonresidential Development Demand Economy & Employment 13 Key challenges & choices  Impact of shifting regional demand for retail, office, industrial  Changes to land use mix and evaluating quality of employment/industrial land  Evaluating whether future jobs are suited to our talent and educational mix  Automation, new technologies, and related impacts on businesses and workers Transportation & Mobility 14 Key Trends: • Single-occupant vehicle trips remain the primary travel choice • Biking & transit experiencing strong ridership growth • Commuting to/from the region is increasing Fort Collins Transportation Mode Share Single Occupancy Vehicle: 76% Carpool: 10% Bicycle, Taxi, Motorcycle: 8% Walking: 4% Transit: 2% Transportation & Mobility 15 Key challenges & choices  How to continue or accelerate reductions in VMT  Appropriate level of City investment in transit  Identify the right strategy for transit - productivity or coverage  How to further support walking and bicycling as viable transportation choices  Influence of technology and the shared economy on travel behavior Climate Action 16 Key Trends: • Community emissions decreasing • Emissions have decoupled from population/economic growth • Innovation and transformation Change in Emissions, 2005-2016 Climate Action 17 Key challenges & choices  Integration of climate action with other key trends (i.e. regional commuting)  Transformation of existing building stock to drive efficiency and performance  Coordinated approach to adaptation and resiliency with mitigation efforts  Supporting innovation and anticipating disruption on the carbon neutral journey Direction Sought 1. Does Council have input regarding any missing data, research, or analysis needed as part of the Trends & Forces report? 2. Does Council have any direction on the key challenges and choices highlighted in the report? 18 ADDITIONAL RESOURCE SLIDES 19 Community Profile 20 Household Composition: 2000 2015 Racial / Ethnic Composition: Buildout & Development 21 Estimated capacity for additional 28,500 units Vacant & Buildable Lands by Zoning Dwelling Unit Capacity Buildout & Development 22 Development Activity, 2000-2017 - 22% of new residential units were constructed in targeted infill & redevelopment areas - Most new development occurred at the community periphery on vacant lands Housing Access 23 Jobs & Housing Growth 2010-2016, Larimer County Jobs: 3.2% average annual growth Housing Units: 1.3% average annual growth Median Income & Home Price Growth 2000-2016, Fort Collins Income: 1.8% average annual growth Home Prices: 4.4% average annual growth (7% since 2010) Housing Access 24 Housing Demand - 2040 Demand: ~30,500 units Supply (vacant land & infill): ~28,500 units Economy & Employment 25 - Fort Collins still accounts for a majority of office, retail, and industrial space in Larimer County - Since 2007, the community is capturing less of these categories, especially along I-25 to the south Economy & Employment 26 Community Jobs Profile Transportation & Mobility 27 Transportation & Mobility 28 Transportation & Mobility 29 Bicycle Facilities Sidewalk Condition Transportation & Mobility 30 Bike & Pedestrian Crashes All Crashes Climate Action 31 Emission Reduction Targets Source of Emissions, 2016 CULTURE, PARKS, AND RECREATION performance metrics to include healthy and local food access considerations—building on those established as part of the Social Sustain- ability Plan. in residential, employment, and retail develop- ment. • Individual place types need to be reviewed and recalibrated in response to the above consider- ations. • Full buildout of the Structure Plan map needs to be evaluated within the context of Climate Action Plan goals, as well as other community priorities. phasis is needed on the desired end state and rationale behind the particular land use patterns that the plan encourages in different locations. • Increased clarity on the types of transitions that are appropriate in different contexts is also need- ed. types of projects being built in many locations reflect the minimum requirements of (or limita- tions of) the code versus the more aspirational concepts called for by City Plan. • A stronger linkage is needed between proposed land use intensities, infrastructure capacity/avail- ability, and code requirements. the Front Range was minimal in Fort Collins when compared to that sustained by other communities. Challenges/Opportunities for Improvement: • Clear process needed for evaluating and resolving competing interests in different aspects of City Plan policies when they arise (e.g., historic preservation and floodplain protection) • Stronger emphasis on low-impact development (LID) needed in City Plan, and in City projects and housing. Strategies are needed to help create new and evolve existing employment areas into more mixed-use areas with a variety (size) of work spaces. These mixed-use areas, much like down- town areas, require partnerships and strategies to support the areas, which reaches beyond land use policy. (such as transit or bicycling)? If so, where? • Performance standards. What factors should we use to prioritize investments in our transportation system (both improvements and expansion)? What metrics should we look to to understand if our system provides for comfort, safety, connectivity, and ease of mobility for all users of all ages and abilities? • Transit priorities. How should we best allocate Transfort’s limited resources? Should we prioritize coverage over frequency? A transfer-based system versus a system with “one seat rides”? Should we transition Transfort’s fleet to one comprised of electric vehicles or more vehicles that use compressed natural gas? Focus Area #3: Economic Health Focus Area #4: Transportation & Mobility Options Buildout & Land Supply Focus Area #2: Housing Access improve local air quality, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and create electric grid stability. • Green infrastructure (using natural systems to manage stormwater), promotes biking and walking (reducing GHG emissions), creates habitat, and improves local air and water quality. • Increased recycling and composting reduces GHG emissions associated with their associate decomposition of organics and the embodies energy or using virgin materials, while creating and circular economy, reducing land use for landfills. heat (e.g., coal, natural gas, gas- oline and diesel). Global warming contributions from other green- house gases (such as methane) are referred to in terms of “car- bon dioxide equivalent” or CO2e, which represents the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming potential as other GHGs. Community carbon inven- tory goals are tracked in terms of tons of CO2e. 20% REDUCTION 2005 2016 2020 2030 2050 80% REDUCTION NEUTRAL BY 2050 CARBON DOWN 12% 2.3 million 2.1 million 1.8 million 460k Metric Tons (CO2e) 0 ��� �m�ss�on �e�u�t�on Pro�ress � �ar�ets Fort Collins, 2005 - 2050 Electricity C�an�es �n ��� �m�ss�ons Fort Collins, 2005 - 2016 12% DECREASE ELECTRICITY 6% DECREASE GROUND TRAVEL 5% INCREASE NATURAL GAS 12% DECREASE OVERALL 60% DECREASE SOLID WASTE 5% INCREASE WATER-RELATED INCREASE 3.IN 5x LOCALLY- INSTALLED SOLAR CAPACITY FORT COLLINS, 2014 - 2016 CSU enrollment growth, and a partnership with CSU and Transfort. Safety With a commitment Towards Vision Zero, the City is working hard to reduce traffic-related fatalities. However, a successful improvement to roadway safety requires collaborative efforts from multiple agencies and a broad spectrum of efforts that includes not only engineering, but also education, encouragement, enforcement, and evaluation. In addition to the effort made by the City through capital projects, Neighborhood Traffic Mitigation Program, bike classes, DUI enforcement and ongoing monitoring, other changes in technology and transportation are also increasing safety. These include Collision Avoidance Systems in vehicles, autonomous vehicles and the use of big data to identify high crash locations and trends. �utu�e �i�y�le �a�ilities +15% +172% Source: 2014 Bicycle Plan ��e�a�e Daily �i�e�s�ip MAX 31 3 2,435 5,217 2,047 Number of Bike/Ped Crashes Existing 2020 Network Full Build 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 50 100 150 � � � � � � Fatality Severe Injury Minor or Possible Injury Property Damage Only Source: City of Fort Collins 2016 Trac Safety Summary 141 miles 162 miles 384 miles 2040 2016 7,066 6,252 -12% ��� pe� �apita BIKE 20201 FATALITIES 0 BY 1 2014 Bicycle Plan housing that is accessible to transit and dense and mixed land uses that will shorten trip lengths. Recent and planned improvement of regional transit connections providing frequent service to Denver, Boulder, Berthoud, and Longmont will also impact mode choice for regional trips. Emerging trends that will influence commutes include autonomous vehicles, the sharing economy in transportation, and Transportation-as-a-Service. CDOT and NFRMPO analyzed home-based work trips between transportation analysis zones in 2015 and projected that out to 2040. The model projects a 140% increase in trips between Fort Collins and the central I-25 subregion, a 68% increase between Fort Collins and Loveland, and an 88% increase between Fort Collins and all other subregions. Traffic volume compared with job and population growth. Projections from the Climate Action Plan anticipate an increase in population but a decrease in VMT through 2040. These projections assume the implementation of a number of strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emission including a reduction in VMT. Travel behavior survey. Placeholder until data is received. +172% Source: 2014 Bicycle Plan ��e�a�e Daily �i�e�s�ip MAX 31 3 2,435 5,217 2,047 Network Full Build 384 miles 2040 2016 7,066 6,252 -12% ��� pe� �apita Placeholder for Trend- Lab+ Outputs Severe Injury Minor or Possible Injury Property Damage Only � � � � � Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: City of Fort Collins 2016 Trac Safety Summary �utu�e �i�y�le �a�ilities +15% +172% Source: 2014 Bicycle Plan ��e�a�e Daily �i�e�s�ip MAX 31 3 2,435 5,217 2,047 Pe�est�ian an� �i�y�le ��as�es Number of Bike/Ped Crashes Existing 2020 Network Full Build 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 50 100 150 200 � � � � � � Fatality Severe Injury Minor or Possible Injury Property Damage Only Source: City of Fort Collins 2016 Trac Safety Summary 141 miles 162 miles 384 miles 117mi 4mi 4mi 68mi 29mi LOW COMFORT CYCLIST PROHIBITED MILES OF TRAIL �nnual ��ans�o�t �i�e�s�ip in �o�t �ollins 2016 2011 +90% �o�t �ollins Population ��o�t� 2016 2011 +12% Source: City of Fort Collins Source: City of Fort Collins Source: City of Fort Collins Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins DETACHED (with buer) MISSING (40% of existing sidewalks) 362mi EXISTING BUT NOT ADA COMPLIANT (25% of existing sidewalks) 217mi 221mi 1,000,000 0 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 Total Ridership P�o�u�ti�ity � �isto�i�al ��en�s �y �ea� Fort Collins, 2003-2016 sengers per Revenue Hour 25 30 35 2,156,775 4,089,200 146,000 164,000 52% 27% 11% 6% 4% ���� �i�e�s�ip �y �a�e �lass Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins CSU Students/Faculty/Sta“ General Public Disabled Youth Seniors 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 201 201 Source: City of Fort Collins P�o�u�ti�ity � �isto�i�al ��en�s �y �ea� Fort Collins, 2003-2016 ��ans�o�t P�o�u�ti�ity �y �oute Passengers per Revenue Hour Passengers per Revenue Hour Route 20 25 30 35 Passengers 31 3 MAX 2 32 HORN 8 14 18 7 81 19 6 9 10 5 16 12 4,089,200 164,000 0 20 40 60 80 100 52% 27% 11% 6% 4% ���� �i�e�s�ip �y �a�e �lass Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins CSU Students/Faculty/Sta“ General Public Disabled Youth Seniors Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% �nnual ��ans�o�t �i�e�s�ip in �o�t �ollins 2016 2011 +90% �o�t �ollins Population ��o�t� 2016 2011 +12% Source: City of Fort Collins P�o�u�ti�ity � �isto�i�al ��en�s �y �ea� Fort Collins, 2003-2016 ��ans�o�t P�o�u�ti�ity �y �oute Passengers per Revenue Hour Passengers per Revenue Hour Route 20 25 30 35 Passengers 31 3 MAX 2 32 HORN 8 14 18 7 81 19 6 9 10 5 16 12 2,156,775 4,089,200 146,000 164,000 0 20 40 60 80 100 52% 27% 11% 6% 4% ���� �i�e�s�ip �y �a�e �lass Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins �ll ��as�es �u��a�y Number of All Crashes 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 CSU Students/Faculty/Sta“ General Public Disabled Youth Seniors Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 Total Ridership P�o�u�ti�ity � �isto�i�al ��en�s �y �ea� Fort Collins, 2003-2016 35 2,156,775 4,089,200 146,000 164,000 52% 27% 11% 6% ���� �i�e�s�ip �y �a�e �lass Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins CSU Students/Faculty/Sta“ General Public Disabled Youth Seniors 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ��ans�o�t �nnual �i�e�s�ip Fort Collins, 2000-2016 designated EXISTING bike facilities total bike boulevards 94mi 877mi ATTACHED (no buer) (60% of existing sidewalks) 47mi 515mi designated bike facilities bike boulevards S College Avenue between Harmony Road and Laurel Street Major Shared Use Paved Minor Shared Use Paved 117mi 4mi 4mi 29mi MILES OF TRAIL ES OF ON-STREET FACILITIES �nnual ��ans�o�t �i�e�s�ip in �o�t �ollins 2016 2011 +90% �o�t �ollins Population ��o�t� 2016 2011 +12% Source: City of Fort Collins Source: City of Fort Collins Source: City of Fort Collins Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins DETACHED (with buer) MISSING (40% of existing sidewalks) 362mi EXISTING BUT NOT ADA COMPLIANT (25% of existing sidewalks) 217mi 221mi Total Ridership 2,156,775 4,089,200 146,000 164,000 �e�s�ip �y �a�e �lass 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% �i�e�al�s �i�e�s�ip -2016 d EXISTING ties total ds 877mi ATTACHED (no buer) (60% of existing sidewalks) 515mi d ties ds oad r Shared Paved Population ��o�t� 2016 2011 +12% ��� pe� �apita 2016 2011 -7% Source: City of Fort Collins ns % �o�t �ollins Population ��o�t� 2016 2011 +12% Collins Source: City of Fort Collins Source: Transfort-City of Fort Collins DETACHED (with buer) MISSING (40% of existing sidewalks) 362mi EXISTING BUT NOT ADA COMPLIANT (25% of existing sidewalks) 217mi 221mi Total Ridership o�i�al ��en�s �y �ea� 2016 146,000 164,000 7,575 7,066 200 146,000 164,000 52% 27% 11% 6% 4% ransfort-City of Fort Collins eneral Public Disabled Youth Seniors 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 67% 17% 17% Existing, sucient width sidewalk Existing, non-ADA sidewalk Missing sidewalk �utu�e �i�y�le �a�ilities +15% +172% Source: 2014 Bicycle Plan ��e�a�e Daily �i�e�s�ip MAX 31 3 2,435 5,217 2,047 Fatality Severe Injury Minor or Possible Injury Property Damage Only Pe�est�ian an� �i�y�le ��as�es Number of Bike/Ped Crashes Existing 2020 Network Full Build 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 50 100 150 200 � � � � � � Fatality Severe Injury Minor or Possible Injury Property Damage Only Source: City of Fort Collins 20 Trac Safety Summa Source: City of Fort Collins 20 Trac Safety Summa 141 miles 162 miles 384 miles 016 7,066 ��� pe� �apita 2016 2011 Taft Hill Road from Harmony to Mulberry Timberline Road from Harmony to Mulberry Harmony Road from Taft Hill to Timberline Mulberry Street from Taft Hill to Timberline Prospect Road from Taft Hill to Timberline Average +4% Population ��o 2016 2011 Source: City of Fort Co Source: City of Fort Collins MI 5,000,000 1,106,233,329 1,159,925,919 146,00 164 ��a�el �i�e on ��te�ials 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% SOV Carpooled Taxicab, Motorcycle, Bicycle, Other Harmony to Mulberry Timberline Road from Harmony to Mulberry Harmony Road from Taft Hill to Timberline Mulberry Street from Taft Hill to Timberline Prospect Road from Taft Hill to Timberline Average +4% Population ��o�t� 2016 2011 +12% ��� pe� �apita 2016 2011 -7% Source: City of Fort Collins DETACHED (with buer) (40% of existing sidewalks) 362mi 1,106,233,329 1,159,925,919 146,000 164,000 7,575 7,066 ��a�el �i�e on ��te�ials 2011 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% SOV Carpooled Taxicab, Motorcycle, Bicycle, Other Walked Public Transit 76% 10% 8% 4% 2% �o�t �ollins �o�e ��a�e ��� ��en�s in �o�t �ollins Source: American Community Survey 2011-2015 Source: City of Fort Collins Trac Operations Department 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 College Avenue from Harmony to Mulberry Taft Hill Road from Harmony to Mulberry Timberline Road from Harmony to Mulberry Harmony Road from Taft Hill to Timberline Mulberry Street from Taft Hill to Timberline Prospect Road from Taft Hill to Timberline Average Population ��o�t� ��� pe� �apita ��a�el �i�e on ��te�ials 2011 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% SOV Carpooled Taxicab, Motorcycle, Bicycle, Other Walked Public Transit 76% 10% 8% 4% 2% �o�t �ollins �o�e ��a�e ��� ��en�s in �o�t �ollins �i�y�le �a�ilities �i�e�al�s ��ans�o�t �nnual �i�e�s�ip Fort Collins, 2000-2016 HIGH COMFORT designated EXISTING bike facilities total bike boulevards 94mi 877mi ATTACHED (no buer) (60% of existing sid 47mi 515mi designated bike facilities bike boulevards S College Avenue between Harmony Road and Laurel Street Major Shared Use Paved Minor Shared Use Paved 117mi 4mi 4mi 68mi 29mi LOW COMFORT CYCLIST PROHIBITED MILES OF TRAIL MILES OF ON-STREET FACILITIES Source: American Community Survey 2011-2015 Source: City of Fort Collins Trac Operations Department 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 College Avenue from Harmony to Mulberry 2016 2011 Taft Hill Road from Harmony to Mulberry Timberline Road from Harmony to Mulberry Harmony Road from Taft Hill to Timberline Mulberry Street from Taft Hill to Timberline Prospect Road from Taft Hill to Timberline Average +4% Population ��o�t� 2016 2011 +12% ��� pe� �apita 2016 2011 Source: City of Fort Collins Source: City of Fort Collins Source: City of Fort Collins DETACHED (with buer) MISSING (40% of existing sid 362mi EXISTING BUT NOT ADA COMPLIANT (25% of existing sid 217mi 221mi 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 1,106,233,329 1,159,925,919 146,000 164,000 7,57 7,066 ��a�el �i�e on ��te�ials 2011 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% SOV Carpooled Taxicab, Motorcycle, Bicycle, Other Walked Public Transit 76% 10% 8% 4% 2% �o�t �ollins �o�e ��a�e ��� ��en�s in �o�t �ollins �i�y�le �a�ilities �i�e�al�s ��ans�o�t �nnual �i�e�s�ip Fort Collins, 2000-2016 HIGH COMFORT designated EXISTING bike facilities total bike boulevards 94mi 877mi ATTACHED (no buer) (60% of existing sidewalks) 47mi 515mi designated bike facilities bike boulevards S College Avenue between Harmony Road and Laurel Street Major Shared Use Paved Minor Shared Use Paved 117mi 4mi 4mi 68mi 29mi LOW COMFORT CYCLIST PROHIBITED MILES OF TRAIL MILES OF ON-STREET FACILITIES Source: American Community Survey 2011-2015 Source: City of Fort Collins Trac Operations Department 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 College Avenue from Harmony to Mulberry 2016 2011 Taft Hill Road from Harmony to Mulberry Timberline Road from Harmony to Mulberry Harmony Road from Taft Hill to Timberline Mulberry Street from Taft Hill to Timberline Prospect Road from Taft Hill to Timberline Average +4% Population ��o�t� 2016 2011 +12% ��� pe� �apita 2016 2011 -7% Source: City of Fort Collins Source: City of Fort Collins Source: City of Fort Collins DETACHED (with buer) MISSING (40% of existing sidewalks) 362mi EXISTING BUT NOT ADA COMPLIANT (25% of existing sidewalks) 217mi 221mi 5,000,000 1,106,233,329 1,159,925,919 146,000 164,000 7,575 7,066 ��a�el �i�e on ��te�ials 2011 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% SOV Carpooled Taxicab, Motorcycle, Bicycle, Other Walked Public Transit 76% 10% 8% 4% 2% s �o�e ��a�e �s in �o�t �ollins �i�y�le �a�ilities �i�e�al�s designated EXISTING bike facilities total bike boulevards 94mi 877mi ATTACHED (no buer) (60% of existing sidewalks) 47mi 515mi designated bike facilities bike boulevards S College Avenue between Harmony Road and Laurel Street 117mi 4mi 4mi OF ON-STREET FACILITIES Source: American Community Survey 2011-2015 Source: City of Fort Collins Trac Operations Department 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 enue from o Mulberry Road from o Mulberry Road from o Mulberry Road from Timberline Street from Timberline Road from Timberline Average +4% Population ��o�t� 2016 2011 +12% ��� pe� �apita 2016 2011 -7% Source: City of Fort Collins DETACHED (with buer) (40% of existing sidewalks) 362mi EXISTING BUT NOT ADA COMPLIANT (25% of existing sidewalks) 217mi 1,106,233,329 1,159,925,919 146,000 164,000 7,575 7,066 ��a�el �i�e on ��te�ials 2011 2016 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% OV Carpooled Taxicab, Motorcycle, Bicycle, Other Walked Public Transit Between 2011 and 2016, VMT increased by 5% but the population grew by 12%, resulting in a 7% decrease in VMT per capita. Note: VMT data is only available through 2013 and was predicted for 2016 as a part of the Climate Action Plan. Travel behavior survey. Placeholder until data is received. Oce Retail Industrial/Flex 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Educational Services Manufacturing Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Professional and Technical Services Public Administration Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Administrative and Waste Services Other Services, Ex. Public Admin Utilities Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Finance and Insurance Information Construction Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing &… Management of Companies and… Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Mining �o�ation �uotient Fort Collins, 2016 Higher Concentration - Fort Collins Higher Concentration - Colorado Equal Concentration Top Ten Largest Employers Fort Collins, 2016 EMPLOYER INDUSTRY EMPLOYEES Colorado State University Education 7,525 Poudre School District Education 4,297 University of Colorado Hospital Healthcare 3,801 City of Fort Collins Government 1,838 Larimer County Government 1,838 Woodward, Inc. Aerospace 1,232 Avago Technologies US, Inc. Analog Electronics 1,084 Department of Agriculture Government 1,078 Otter Products, LLC Electronics Accessories 864 Employment Solutions Personnel Staffing 850 $80,000 $100,000 Education Health Care Retail Trade Accommodations and Food Service Manufacturing Professional and Technical Services Larimer County Average: $56,987 Distribution of Jobs by Industry Fort Collins, 2016 Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Manufacturing Professional, Scientific, Technical Services Public Administration Administration & Waste Services Construction Finance & Insurance Other Services, excluding Public Administration Real Estate & Rental and Leasing Information Wholesale Trade Arts and Entertainment Transportation & Warehousing Management Other 17% 16% 12% 11% 8% 8% 6% 5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% were Health Care (4,442 new jobs), Accommodation and Food Service (3,952 new jobs), Construction (3,153 new jobs), and Manufacturing (2,739 jobs). 21 185 190 241 327 352 481 493 495 517 735 862 1,469 1,864 1,886 2,054 2,739 3,153 3,952 4,443 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Utilities Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Mining Information Administrative and Waste Services Management Public Administration Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Finance and Insurance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Transportation and Warehousing Other Services, Ex. Public Admin Wholesale Trade Professional and Technical Services Educational Services Retail Trade Manufacturing Construction Accommodation and Food Services Health Care and Social Assistance ��an�e in ��ploy�ent �y �n�ust�y Larimer County, 2010 - 2016 groups is expected to stay the same over the next 20 years. Affordability will impact demand. The affordability of housing in the future will impact housing demand. Should the gap between median home prices and median incomes continue to widen through 2040, less households may be financial able to own homes. Since the majority of rental housing is in multi-family homes, the demand for medium- and high-density housing could be higher than what is forecasted. 42,254 14,891 6,590 13,691 6,107 10,686 4.1% annual increase 1.4% annual increase 1.2% annual increase 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Low Density Middle Density High Density �sti�ate� �ousin� De�an� Fort Collins, 2016 - 2040 2016 2040 25% 15% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2000 2016 2000 2016 Housing Cost Burden for Renters & Homeowners Fort Collins, 2000 & 2016 Severely cost-burdened Cost-burdened Renter-Households Owner-Households $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $102,100 $302,000 $199,900 $350,000 Housing Aordability Gap Fort Collins, 2015 Aordable Price Gap Median Sales Price a residential structure) has stayed relatively the same as in 2000. While the percent of units that were single-family homes did not change between 2000 and 2016, the share of multi-family housing (5 units or more) grew slightly over this period. Home prices in Fort Collins are increasing faster than incomes. The median sales price of a home in Fort Collins has increased from $187,522 in 2000 to $352,000 in 2017 (as of October). Since 2000, the median sales price grew at an average annual rate of 4.4%, much faster than the average annual rate of growth for household median income (1.8%). Prices have grown at an even faster rate since 2010, increasing by 7% on average each year. 43% 47% 57% 53% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2016 Tenure of Households Fort Collins, 2000 & 2016 Renter-Occupied Owner-Occupied SINGLE-FAMILY ATTACHED (2 TO 4 UNITS) MULTI-FAMILY (5+ UNITS) OTHER 63% 8% 26% 2%2016 Square Feet 5.3 million Square Feet 3.0 million Square Feet 430k Square Feet 290k Square Feet 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Low-Density Units (Vacant Lands) Medium-Density Units (Vacant Lands) High-Density (Vacant Lands) Low-Density Units (Infill/Redevelopment) Medium-Density Units (Infill/Redevelopment) High-Density (Infill/Redevelopment) Distribution of Dwelling Unit Capacity by Dwelling Unit Type 9,160 Units 9,580 Units 822 Units 1,153 Units 732 Units 7,000 Units Vacant and Buildable Lands by Land Use Type 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Residential Zoning Commercial / Mixed-Use Zoning Employment Industrial Other Zoning al Vacant Development nt Development al Infill/Redevelopment /Redevelopment 4,110 acres 850 acres 1,115 acres 800 acres 16 acres A number of parcels within the city are likely to redevelop in the future. In total, it is estimated that redevelopment could support an additional 2,700 dwelling units and 3.7 million square feet of non-residential development. 5 6 7 8 4 3% 1% GMA 11% 31% 33% 5% 5% 4% 4% 1% 4% 2% Low Density Residential Medium and High Density Residential Industrial Public/Quasi-Public Agriculture Parks, Natural Area, and Open Space Vacant Commercial Other Mobile Homes 62% 59% 38% 41% 22% 31% 29% 36% 48% 66% 70% 46% 54% 40% 49% 74% 59% 35% 78% 69% 71% 64% 52% 65% 34% 30% 54% 46% 60% 51% 26% 41% 66% 34% 73% 27% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Residential Units Permitted Fort Collins, 2000 - 2017 Single-Family Non-Single-Family of poverty was estimated to be 17.8%. However, when off- campus students were excluded, this estimate dropped to 10.1%, a difference of 7.7%. Across all block groups in the city, there was a strong positive correlation between the presence of undergraduate students and poverty. Variations in the number of undergraduates explained 62% of the variation in poverty rates found across block groups, a significant amount for a single variable. 2016 (population under 18) Hispanic/Latino (21%) White (65%) Asian (3%) Black (1%) Other (10%) 60 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over Age Groups Age Distribution of Population6 Fort Collins, 2000 and 2015 4.3% 1.9% 4.7% 7.6% 5.7% 0.9% 0.9% 2.2% 2.6% 2000 2015 Average Annual Growth 2000-15 0.8% 0.2% 1.3% 1.5% 2002 2006 2010 2014 Total County Population Component of Growth Population �i�t�s� Deat�s� an� �et �i��ation Larimer County, 1990 - 2017 Births Deaths Net Migration Population Births Deaths Net Migration Population -200,000 -100,000 0 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 Total County Population Component of Growth Population Births, Deaths, and Net Migration Larimer County, 2017 - 2040 10 much of this future growth. 14,937 25,027 43,337 65,092 87,491 120,236 144,887 167,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017 Population1 Fort Collins, 1950 - 2017 5.3% 5.6% 4.2% 3.0% 3.2% 1.9% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Average Annual Grwoth Rate Population Growth Rates2 Fort Collins, 1950 - 2040 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30 2030-40 PLAN ADOPTION Fall/Winter 2018 Present City Plan to the City Council for consideration of adoption. START FINISH PROJECT INITIATION Spring/Summer 2017 Finalize work plan and draft community engagement plan. WHERE ARE WE NOW? WHERE ARE WE HEADED? Fall 2017/Winter 2018 Gather data to build a “snapshot” of Fort Collins today; learn about existing conditions, needs, and priorities.