HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOUNCIL - AGENDA ITEM - 05/08/2018 - CLIMATE ACTION PLAN AND 100% RENEWABLE ELECTRICITYDATE:
STAFF:
May 8, 2018
Lindsay Ex, Environmental Program Manager
Jeff Mihelich, Deputy City Manager
Tim McCollough, Light and Power Operations Manager
WORK SESSION ITEM
City Council
SUBJECT FOR DISCUSSION
Climate Action Plan and 100% Renewable Electricity Update.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The purpose of this work session is three-fold:
• Provide an update on the implementation of the City’s Climate Action goals, including the preliminary
2017 community carbon inventory, updated projections, highlights from 2017 in the various sectors
(electricity, natural gas, transportation, and waste materials), and innovations on the journey to carbon
neutrality;
• Highlight market demand and customer requests to provide an option for 100% renewable electricity; and
• Review overall next steps, including community engagement efforts planned for 2018.
GENERAL DIRECTION SOUGHT AND SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED
This item is part of an annual update to Council; no questions are proposed.
BACKGROUND / DISCUSSION
Overall Summary and Progress since the Goals were Adopted in 2015
In 2015, Council unanimously adopted updated community greenhouse gas goals:
• 20% below 2005 levels by 2020,
• 80% below 2005 by 2030, and
• Carbon neutrality by the year 2050.
Preliminary 2017 Community Carbon Inventory Results
What it is. To measure progress toward these goals, the City conducts an annual carbon inventory to calculate
emissions across the sectors that influence our climate action goals - electricity, natural gas, transportation, waste
materials, and water. While the type of emission varies across sectors, e.g., cooking and heating emits carbon
dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) while waste sent to landfills emits just methane (CH4), all
of these emissions are normalized to a “carbon dioxide equivalent” (referred to as CO2e) so they can be
compared and evaluated systematically.
Preliminary Results. Since the goals were adopted in 2015, the community has made significant progress. The
2017 inventory shows the community is at 17% below 2005 levels - just 3% from its 2020 goal! In addition, per
capita emissions are down by 35% from 2005. The results of the inventory are further described in Attachment 2.
More than Just Carbon. Addressing climate action brings significant benefit to the community, including the
following results:
• Results from the 2017 efficiency programs show energy savings equivalent to over 3,750 homes in our
community (over 28,600 megawatt-hours) generating in excess of $38 million in local economic benefits
through reduced utility bills, direct rebates and leveraged investment,
May 8, 2018 Page 2
• Fort Collins businesses are saving more than $9.8M annually from improved efficiencies,
• ClimateWise is Fort Collins’ free, voluntary program that offers simple solutions to help businesses reduce
their impact, save money and gain recognition for their achievements in energy and water conservation,
waste reduction, alternative transportation and social responsibility. In 2017, ClimateWise Partners
realized $460,289 in annual savings by implementing cost-effective strategies to be more efficient and
reduce operating costs, all while reducing emissions by almost 16,000 metric tons of CO2e.
• Solar installations continued at a rapid pace, and the community passed the 10MW threshold for locally
installed solar capacity in 2017. Over the last 10 years, Fort Collins has seen a 100% annual average
increase of installed solar capacity.
• Partnered with the Platte River Power Authority member communities to secure a Power Purchase
Agreement for 150 MW of wind that is expected to have no impact on our existing low wholesale power
costs and positively impact the inventory by up to 10%.
• Increased the waste diverted from the landfill in 2017 (over 2016) by almost 5%;
• Launched City Plan, Transportation Master Plan, and the Transit Plan update which includes a focus on
climate action and will guide the community’s land use patterns over the next 20-30 years.
• Decreased per capita per day water use by 10% since 2016.
Affecting Climate Action - It’s About Energy (Electricity and Natural Gas), Transportation, Waste
Materials, and Water
Summary: While climate action is a broad term, in Fort Collins, it means increasing the efficiency and cleaning up
the sources we use to fuel the electricity in our homes and businesses, the heat in our buildings (natural gas), the
way we travel (transportation), the management of the materials we consume, and our water use.
In other words, climate action is focused on alignment and implementation of the following citywide efforts:
• Energy Policy and our partnership with Platte River Power Authority (Integrated Resource Plan);
• City Plan, Transportation Master Plan, and Transit Plan;
• Road to Zero Waste and Regional Wasteshed Planning effort;
• Water Supply and Demand Management Plan and the Water Efficiency Plan.
The following sections describe the 2017 emissions and opportunities as we look toward the future of each
resource area - electricity, natural gas, transportation, waste materials and water - addressed in the climate action
plan.
Electricity - 2017 Emissions Update and Opportunities Looking Ahead
Electricity Emissions: Electricity remains the single largest contributor to the community’s emissions at 51%.
However, electricity emissions were 16% lower in 2017 than in the 2005 baseline. This is primarily due to an
increase in the amount of renewable energy in the resource mix. Efficiency continues to largely offset growth in
electricity use as the population and economy grow over time.
Opportunities in the Electricity Sector: In just a few years since the goals were adopted, significant
transformations and opportunities have been harnessed in the electricity sector - both at the utility scale and more
locally.
Utility Scale Planning. In May 2016, the Platte River Board of Directors approved a project titled the Customized
Resource Plan (CRP). Fort Collins, Loveland, Longmont and Estes Park each expressed interest in having
specific types of generation to serve their customers, and each municipality had its own distinct long-term goals.
May 8, 2018 Page 3
The overall goal of the CRP project was to develop a range of alternatives, to provide sound advice and to
provide opportunities for municipalities to consider for increasing renewable electricity percentages in their
portfolios. There were two phases in CRP planning process.
Completed in early 2017, the CRP Phase 1 was comprised of initial modeling to establish the cost landscape of
potential customized resource plans. It was intended for the later phase of the project to focus on a subset of the
most effective plans chosen for further analysis.
In July 2017, Platte River’s Board of Directors shifted focus from the CRP and approved a study focused on
modeling a 100% non-carbon resource scenario for all four municipalities. Platte River retained Pace Global, a
Siemens business, to provide an independent assessment of the feasibility of Platte River achieving and
maintaining a Zero Net Carbon (ZNC, or carbon-neutral) generation supply portfolio by 2030. This study was
primarily designed to assess the production costs of a ZNC portfolio and aid in future planning decisions for Platte
River and its member-owners.
There is a distinct difference between Zero Carbon Portfolios and Zero Net Carbon (ZNC) or carbon neutral
portfolios:
• A Zero Carbon Portfolio is a portfolio where energy is produced and delivered to end-users with
generation sources that yield no carbon output. Resources such as wind, solar, and battery storage would
comprise this type of system. This system would accommodate no market (carbon-producing) purchases
and would operate largely in isolation of the regional grid.
• A Zero Net Carbon (ZNC) portfolio is a portfolio consisting of excess carbon-free (or lower carbon)
generation that, when sold in a market, can offset carbon produced by fossil fuel-fired generation,
producing zero net carbon or carbon neutrality. Carbon offset is an action or activity that compensates for
the emission of carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
Overall, the ZNC study was a positive first step toward demonstrating the feasibility of a carbon-free portfolio. The
study found that ZNC could be implemented, but it would require investment and additional market risk. In the
ZNC model, Platte River would serve about 75% of load with zero carbon generation and would offset the
remaining 25% with sales of zero carbon generation to the market. A zero carbon (rather than zero net carbon)
portfolio would be more expensive due to the added cost of storage and the limited capacity credit attributable to
intermittent resources (more renewables and batteries would be required). Higher electric rates would be required
to achieve a ZNC portfolio in 2030 as compared to the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) base case portfolio.
The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is a comprehensive document that details Platte River’s plans in the areas of
generation and transmission projects, renewable energy, and energy efficiency for the next 3-5 years. Many of the
assumptions in the previous edition of the ’Platte Rivers IRP (2016) <https://www.prpa.org/wp-
content/uploads/2016/08/06-01-IRP-final-report-2016.pdf> represent a view of conditions as they stood when it
was written. Many of the assumptions presented have changed such as the announcement of the retirement of
the Craig 1 power plant in 2025 and the addition of 150 MW of wind in 2020 to Platte River’s generation portfolio.
In March 2018, Platte River announced they will be moving into the next phase of resource planning
efforts with updating their Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) a year ahead of schedule. Normally produced
every five years, the IRP is a critical tool for ensuring an adequate supply of reliable, low-cost, and
environmentally-responsible electricity.
The IRP process usually takes about three years to complete and publish. The IRP will be driven by Platte River’s
foundational pillars of system reliability, environmental responsibility and financial sustainability. Platte River will
focus on building a long-term diversified portfolio by:
• Formalizing long-term goals for carbon reduction that meet the mutual needs of the municipal owners.
• Adding cost-advantageous renewable power
• Conducting a battery storage demonstration project
• Accelerating distributed resource options
May 8, 2018 Page 4
• Finding savings to keep current baseload resources competitive in a broader marketplace
• Identifying market options to reduce long-term reliance on coal resources
Utility Scale Opportunities. In January 2018, Platte River Power Authority signed a power purchase agreement
(PPA) for 150 megawatts of new wind power capacity. The additional wind power will come from a new wind
farm located less than 20 miles north of Platte River’s Rawhide Energy Station. Enyo Renewable Energy’s
subsidiary, Roundhouse Renewable Energy LLC, will construct the Roundhouse project with up to 75 wind
turbines across 14,000 acres of land as well as the additional transmission capacity needed to bring the wind
energy directly to Platte River’s system. The new transmission line will connect the wind power directly to Platte
River’s transmission system at the Rawhide Station and will nearly triple Platte River’s existing output from wind.
In February 2018, Platte River Power Authority issued a request for proposals (RFP) for at least 20 megawatts
of new solar energy capacity that could be added to its system, which serves Estes Park, Fort Collins,
Longmont and Loveland. For comparison, 20 MW of solar is equivalent to approximately 31 Riverside solar
gardens (the garden at the corner of Riverside and Mulberry). The RFP also called for up to five (5) megawatt-
hours of energy storage capacity. The solar project could be built and operational between June 2019 and the
end of 2021.
In addition to these specific opportunities, multiple large customers have sent letters of support to request that
Fort Collin’s Utilities and Platte River Power Authority develop corporate rate tariffs to meet new and ongoing
large customer demands for 100% Renewable Electricity. Many of these customers have specific
organizational or corporate goals around renewable electricity and therefore have requested a new rate and tariff
be developed to help them achieve their goals.
In addition to 100% Renewable Electricity, these corporations and organizations generally are requesting this
future product to provide choice in specific generation products that are cost competitive under long term
contracts. They also desire this energy to be provided by new projects in close proximity. Many of these buyers
point to the Corporate Renewable Energy Buyers’ Principles (<http://buyersprinciples.org/>) as describing their
collective desires.
Platte River is in the process of evaluating its current tariff structure, including a new renewable tariff. Platte River
has committed to work collaboratively with Fort Collins and our large customers to create a transparent tariff
structure to achieve mutual goals.
Local Opportunities in the Electricity Sector. In 2017, efficiency programs saved over 28 gigawatt-hours,
equivalent to the electricity use of 3750 typical Fort Collins homes. A third-party evaluation of the portfolio of
efficiency programs confirmed the reported savings and documented a benefit cost ratio of 1.8. Another milestone
crossed in 2017 was reaching a locally installed solar capacity of 10 megawatts. Of the over 1000 solar systems
now active on Fort Collins distribution system, over one fourth were installed in the last twelve months.
New opportunities for impacting electricity use and associated carbon emissions are also in the works. Time of
Day residential electricity rates will start in October 2018, and are expected to reduce residential usage by over
two percent. This rate structure will also encourage increased engagement with customers with managing their
use and is a clear financial signal to encourage electric vehicle ownership.
Research activities related to the electric system include:
• A battery storage demonstration project to support understanding a range of use cases for commercial
and residential integration of solar plus battery storage, including technical requirements, interconnection
details, dispatchable options, price responsiveness, programmatic needs and policy objectives.
• A partnership with Colorado State University, funded by the National Science Foundation, to develop a
complete model of the distribution grid. This model will enable scenario planning for increasing levels of
renewable energy and storage.
May 8, 2018 Page 5
• A pilot project leveraging the existing demand response infrastructure to allow Platte River to gain
operational experience with demand response managed for the benefit of the entire system.
• A partnership between Fort Collins Utilities, Poudre School District and Colorado State University, to
develop a network of solar data sensors to estimate and model community wide near real time solar
output while providing research and STEM opportunities for students.
Natural Gas - 2017 Emissions Update and Opportunities Looking Ahead
Natural Gas Emissions: Natural gas makes up 21% of the community’s emissions. Natural gas emissions have
increased from 2005 baseline levels by 7% and increased by 2% from 2016. Population increase is one of the key
drivers of increased emissions, i.e., more buildings heating via natural gas, though the rate of increase has
slowed. Other influencing factors include weather patterns, awareness, and efficiency measures.
Opportunities in the Natural Gas Sector: As one of the only resource areas with consistently increasing emissions,
Utilities and Xcel are collaborating regarding data sharing, which could improve our understanding of natural gas
usage and savings opportunities, for joint marketing and outreach to our common customers and improved
alignment of efficiency programs and services. The proposed update of the CAP Framework and Energy Policy
may need to formally address the need to transition from natural gas sources for space and water heating in order
to reach our 2030 and 2050 goals. Electrification of space and water heating is becoming increasingly efficient
and effective with technology improvements. Paired with reducing the emissions from electricity production, this
will be an essential pathway to reaching a carbon free energy system.
Transportation - 2017 Emissions Update and Opportunities Looking Ahead
Transportation Emissions: Transportation makes up 24% of the community’s emissions. Transportation emissions
have decreased from 2005 baseline levels by 10% and increased by 2% from 2016. Population increase is a key
driver of increased transportation emissions since 2016, i.e. more people in the area leads to more drivers on the
roads.
Opportunities in the Transportation Sector: As a community known for its bikes and overall connectivity, Fort
Collins’ commitment to providing a range of travel options is well documented. In 2018-2019, the City is updating
its City Plan, Transportation Master Plan, and Transit Plan. These comprehensive planning documents are
the guiding policies for how the community builds out and transportation systems are designed. It is anticipated
additional initiatives will arise for reducing emissions out of these planning processes.
In addition to these overarching planning processes, the City is also exploring more specific strategies in
alignment with the climate action goals, including the following:
• Development of an EV (Electric Vehicle) Readiness Roadmap to support current and future EV
adoption in our community. The Roadmap will establish a vision, goals, and clearly defined roles for City
of Fort Collins Departments, the private sector, and the Fort Collins community. More information on this
planning process can be found at <https://www.fcgov.com/transportationplanning/ev-readiness-
roadmap.php>.
• To achieve the City’s Bike Plan goals, a team will be traveling to the Netherlands this summer to share
best practices and learn how to rapidly scale up bike commuting rates.
Waste Materials - 2017 Emissions Update and Opportunities Looking Ahead
Waste Material Emissions: Waste makes up 4% of the community’s emissions. Waste emissions have decreased
from 2005 baseline levels by 70% and increased 4% from 2016. While the community’s diversion rate improved
from 51% in 2016 to 56% in 2017, overall emissions increased because more waste was sent to landfills that do
not capture methane (resulting in more methane emissions).
May 8, 2018 Page 6
Opportunities in the Waste Materials Sector: The most significant effort in the Waste Materials Sector is the
Regional Wasteshed Planning process with Larimer County, Estes Park, and Loveland to analyze future
infrastructure and policy options as the Larimer County Landfill is poised to close in 2025. The project has
recommended five new facilities; the next update with Council on this process will be on May 22.
In addition to the Regional Wasteshed Planning process, several initiatives enacted from the Community
Recycling Ordinance have seen positive results, including the following:
• The number of residents subscribed to yard trimming services increased 12% from 2016 to 2017 (with
13% of all residents subscribed to these services);
• Grocers started compost collection and have reported positive results, including some grocers opting to
remove trash compacters altogether while others have much less frequent trash collection.
Recycling is part of a global market and currently, recyclable commodities are going through a market downturn.
In 2018, China mandated an extremely low threshold for “contaminants” in paper and plastics loads that are
delivered from the U.S. This adjustment has impacted markets for recyclables across North America, especially in
the west, and costs to handle recyclables have increased. In the short term, staff are working actively with
hauling partners to increase public awareness of the need to ‘recycle right’. Longer-term, this market condition
could drive great opportunities for the development of national and even regional facilities to handle recyclables
and build out the circular economy.
Water - 2017 Emissions Update and Opportunities Looking Ahead
Water-related Emissions: Water makes up 0.3% of the community’s emissions. Water emissions have decreased
from 2005 baseline levels by 3% and decreased by 8% from 2016. Weather patterns, community awareness, and
efficiency and conservation measures are all drivers of these changes.
Opportunities in the Water Sector: When addressing climate action, water represents a small portion of the
community inventory. This is largely due to the fact that Fort Collins has a gravity-based water distribution system,
therefore our community does not have significant energy use from pumping water as many other Western cities
do. Staff has worked with our key partners to continuously improve the efficiency of these systems, which will
benefit multiple community goals including climate action.
Further, as the City begins to focus more on increasing community resilience to potential climate impacts, water
will become one of the most critical issues (as threats include increased drought, wildfire risks which threaten the
watershed, etc.). In 2018, the City is developing its first Municipal Adaptation Plan to identify how to increase
climate resilience within our own operations.
Innovations on the Climate Action Journey
Bloomberg Mayors Challenge: Fort Collins has been named a Champion City in the challenge, with a project idea
to launch a revised on-bill finance program (“OBF2.0”), using external and non-rate payer capital, to drive energy
efficiency upgrades in thousands of older, inefficient rental properties in our community. In addition to economic
and environmental benefits, this effort is expected to improve the health, well-being and equity of Low and
Moderate Income (LMI) households in Fort Collins. The project is a collaboration between Utilities and Economic
Health, with an opportunity to win up to $5M later this year.
Innovate Fort Collins (FC) Challenge: The 2018 Innovate FC Challenge opened April 18, launching the second
round of competition for Fort Collins businesses and organizations. This competition provides seed money to pilot
projects that provide carbon reduction through energy, waste materials, transportation and behavior change
solutions. Applicants can be awarded $3,000-$75,000 for one-year projects that offer scalable outcomes. Letters
of Intent are due May 18 and project finalists will present their proposals at a Public Pitch Night August 30. More
information can be found at www.fcgov.com/innovate <http://www.fcgov.com/innovate>
Innovations in Storage: As mentioned above, a battery storage demonstration project is underway to support
understanding of a range of use cases for commercial and residential integration of solar plus battery storage,
May 8, 2018 Page 7
including technical requirements, interconnection details, dispatchable options, price responsiveness,
programmatic needs and policy objectives.
Community Engagement
When the updated climate action goals were adopted in 2015, community engagement was recognized as one of
the top two strategies needed to achieve the goals (the other was financing/climate economy). Staff is pleased to
share the following efforts:
• A pilot marketing campaign will run from May through July and is designed to promote two major
actions - installing LED lighting and taking one less trip in your car per week. This campaign is being
developed in tandem with Townsquare Media, a local radio network partner, and the City will have a
significant presence at the Taste of Fort Collins, with a goal of engaging 7,500 households in the LED
lighting action.
• The CAP Community Advisory Committee (CAC) expanded in 2018 to include 20 members
representing stakeholders across the triple bottom line (environment, economic, and social) and triple
helix (private, public, and academic sectors). Based on feedback from the CAP CAC, a “pitch session”
was held on March 30 to share conceptual CAP-related BFO offers with the Committee. This session was
well-received by CAC members and provided staff with early feedback as they develop budget offers for
the 2019-2020 BFO process.
• Continued stakeholder engagement - staff continues to meet with interested businesses, community
members and stakeholders and over 2,500 community members were engaged in 2017.
Updated Projections for Achieving the 2020 Climate Action Goal
Staff is pleased to report that, based on the 2017 inventory, updates to the individual initiative projections, and
continuous improvement in modeling, staff can project that if funding levels are sustained in the 2019-2020
budget cycle, we will be at 22% below our 2005 levels. In addition, if all identified initiatives are funded, the
community will be at 25% below the 2005 levels - thus achieving the 2020 goal of a 20% reduction below 2005
levels!
The table below summarizes the 2020 projections, and a full breakdown of the various costs, benefits, and
projected impacts of the various initiatives can be found in Attachment 3. At the Work Session, staff will also
share how additional initiatives, e.g., Platte River’s investment in 150 MW of wind, could impact the 2030 goals.
Table 1: Updated projections for 2020 based on the 2017 inventory, updated initiatives, and model.
Emissions
(Metric Tons
CO2e)
Percent Below
2005 Levels
(baseline)
Notes
2005 Baseline 2,384,528 N/A Actuals
2017 Inventory 1,989,841 -17% Actuals
2020 Forecast (“Do
Nothing More”)
2,000,000 -15% Projections if actions not taken; Based
on 2017 inventory and does not
include projected savings from 2018
2020 Forecast
(Funded/Adopted Initiatives,
140,000 MT)
1,860,000 -22% Projections: Assumes the fully funded
initiatives (in green below) will also be
funded at the same levels in 2019-
2020, e.g., energy efficiency
2020 Forecast (All
Initiatives, Additional 60,000
MT)
1,800,000 -25% Projections: Assumes the remaining
initiatives (in yellow below) are fully
funded or adopted between now and
2020
May 8, 2018 Page 8
Emissions
(Metric Tons
CO2e)
Percent Below
2005 Levels
(baseline)
Notes
2020 Target 1,907,623 -20% Projections
Projected Surpassing of
2020 Target
121,456 +5% Fort Collins is forecast to exceed
the 2020 goal by 5% with all
identified and funded initiatives
Next Steps.
• Staff continues to implement the funded offers through the 2017-2018 budget process.
• Launch CAP dashboard expansion with additional metrics and initiative status (May).
• Publish 2017 inventory report and send out press release (May).
• The marketing campaign will launch in May and run through July.
• Continued alignment with the updates to City Plan, Transportation Master Plan, and Transit Plan.
• Staff is proposing a joint planning and policy update to the CAP Framework and Energy Policy in
2019/2020 to begin focusing the City’s and Utilities’ attention toward the 2030 goal. This process will
develop strategies to improve the community’s climate resilience (a strategic objective in the City’s
Strategic Plan), and leverage existing modeling tools and rigorous data-driven decision-making structure.
ATTACHMENTS
1. Work Session Summary - February 2017 (PDF)
2. 2017 Inventory - Description of What Has Changed (PDF)
3. Detailed Spreadsheet of the Initiatives and the Modeling and Vetting Process (PDF)
4. Power Point Presentation (PDF)
ATTACHMENT 1
1 2017 Community Climate Action Numbers – what’s changed since 2016?
Community Climate Action Numbers – What’s changed?
This document provides context on what has changed in the community carbon inventory since the last reported
numbers (in the spring of 2016). Changes are discussed in two categories – (1) revisions to methodology in 2016
and (2) unique progress between 2016 and 2017.
Carbon accounting and forecasting is an iterative process that undergoes constant revision and improvement due
to improved data, corrections, and innovation in methodology. In 2018, major revisions were made to all three
branches of City carbon modeling – inventory, forecast, and projections. The changes are discussed in terms of
impact to 2016’s inventory or to the 2020 “do nothing more” forecast. This document presents:
- 2016 Inventory Revisions
- Forecast and initiative Revisions – Impacts to 2020s
- Progress from 2016 to 2017
Key Takeaways
- Impact of revisions on 2016 inventory: 3.9%1 below 2005 baseline (from 11.57% and 15.4%)
- Unique 2017 inventory progress: 1.05% below 2005 baseline
- Inventory progress in 2017: 16.53% below 2005 baseline (compare: 15.4% in 2016)
- Impact of revisions on 2020 forecast: 1.9% below previously forecast for 2020
- Impact of revisions on forecasted carbon savings from climate action initiatives: varies by charter
2016 Inventory Revisions
Inventory revisions reflect improved data quality, aligned inventory with new international protocol, and more
comprehensively reflected local and national trends. These revisions were back-calculated to the 2005 baseline
for consistency, see Figure 1.
Figure 1. Impact of Community Carbon Inventory Revisions - Impact on Progress shows the progress made below the 2005
baseline before and after revisions were made. The results show that significant progress was not previously captured.
1 All impact values are approximate due to rounding.
0% 0% 0%
-6%
-5%
-12%
-16%
-12%
-9% -10%
-14%
-15%
-17%
0% 0% 1%
-5%
-3%
-10%
-14%
-9%
-7% -8%
-11% -12%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Percent below 2005 baseline
Community Carbon Inventory Revisions - Impact on Progress
2017 methodology 2016 methodology
ATTACHMENT 2
2 2017 Community Climate Action Numbers – what’s changed since 2016?
More specifically, the revisions include the following:
• Previously uncaptured progress, e.g., including the proportion of ethanol in gasoline,
• Addressing an error made in the 2016 inventory on vehicle distribution, and
• Aligned waste tonnage and landfill split with characterization.
The impact of these revisions on community progress is illustrated in Table 1 below, with more specific
descriptions on the following pages. Impact is given in % progress below baseline, for example, without the
revisions, the community was -11.57% from the 2005 baseline. The two values, -11.57% plus -1.6% for including
ethanol, brings the total to -13.12%2. Adding all the revisions brings the community’s progress in 2016 to -15.4%
(with approximately .25% error due to rounding). Revisions impact various years, ranging from all years back to
2005 to just the past several years (see Figure 1 above).
Table 1: The types of revisions to the inventory, the years impacted by the revision, and the impact to the inventory are
illustrated. Each of the revisions are further described in the text below.
Type of revision Years impacted
Impact to 2016
(progress from
baseline)
Previously uncaptured progress Varies -4.3%
1. Inclusion of % ethanol blended in gasoline All years -1.6%
2. Improved science on impact of methane All years -1.4%
3. Updated waste characterization 2016 & (2017) -0.9%
4. Updated miles per gallon 2015, 2016, (2017) -0.4%
Fixed error in vehicle distribution Impacts 2013-(2017) 0.7%
Aligned waste tonnage and landfill split with characterization 2015, 2016, (2017) -0.3%
Approximate total impact of revisions -3.9%
Revision 1: Inclusion of % ethanol blended in gasoline
- Ethanol was blended into gasoline (2% - 10% by volume) for all 2005-2017 inventory years.
- As a renewable fuel, ethanol can be used in conventional vehicles up to 10-11% of total fuel volume. As blend
it is already at max, additional gains are not expected in future years.
- Combusting ethanol produces biogenic (as opposed to fossil) carbon dioxide, which is not accounted for in
Fort Collins’ community inventory, as it is assumed to be cycling naturally.
- National data (EIA) used, which is typical of vehicle emissions where local data is harder to find.
- Change has been vetted by the Brendle Group.
Revision 2: Improved science on the impact of methane
- Greenhouse gases reported in carbon dioxide equivalent, which is based on the amount of heat the gas traps
in the atmosphere relative to the amount of heat that carbon dioxide traps.
- Previously, the Fort Collins community inventory calculated the impact of methane as being 21 times that of
carbon dioxide, which reflected commonly used IPCC results.
- The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report has since increased this factor from 21 to 28.
2 All impact values are approximate due to rounding.
3 2017 Community Climate Action Numbers – what’s changed since 2016?
- By adopting this value, in compliance with the new Global Protocol for Community Scale GHG Accounting3,
Fort Collins saw more methane in its baseline year and an increased impact of removing it through waste
reduction activities.
Revision 3: Updated waste characterization
- In 2016, Larimer County conducted a waste audit of material arriving at the Larimer County landfill. This audit
updated a 2006 waste audit that had been used as the inventory’s waste characterization.
- Fort Collins leveraged this recent waste audit to get unique Fort Collins data, allowing for a more locally
specific update to inventory waste characterization.
- Main changes in waste characterization include a decrease in paper and food wastes and increase in yard
waste.
Revision 4: Update Miles per Gallon
- New national miles per gallon data became available that applied to previous years and 2016
Other revisions
- An error was corrected in vehicle distribution, having a moderate negative impact on progress.
- Misalignment of landfilled waste tonnage and waste characterization numbers was corrected.
Forecast and Initiative Revisions – Impacts to 2020
Each year, core variables (i.e. population, energy use) are updated to reflect newly available or recalculated data.
These updates not only affect inventory forecasts, but also impact any initiative using core variable forecasts to
calculate greenhouse gas reductions (which most do).
Table 2. Impact of improvements to the Climate Action Plan model forecast relative to previous 2020 forecast.
Type of revision Years impacted
Impact to 2020
(progress below
baseline)
Forecast Improvements 2018-2050
Population 0.0%
VMT -0.6%
Electric Use 0.4%
Electric EF -1.7%
Approximate total impact of revisions -1.9%
Revision details
- Several variables were updated in 2018, but of them, the latest vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and electricity
emissions factor forecasts had the largest impacts on the 2020 forecast.
- The VMT forecast is provided by the North Front Range Metropolitan Planning Organization and now pulls
from the same data source as inventory VMT data.
3 Fort Collins transitioned to the Global Protocol for Community Scale GHG Accounting in 2017 to fulfill its commitment to the Global
Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy. The change in global warming potential factors is the only major change attributable to the
new protocol.
4 2017 Community Climate Action Numbers – what’s changed since 2016?
- Staff revised the electricity emissions factor used in forecasts and initiative projections to improve the local
accuracy of energy efficiency emissions savings projections and align forecasts and inventory outcomes.
o More information available upon request.
- Electricity use and population reflect normal updates based on updated data, either from the carbon inventory
or from external data sources that have made revised forecasts available.
Progress from 2016 to 2017
Revising the inventory methodology and updating data, as described above, comprises the largest share of the
difference between the last reported value (11.57% below baseline, reported for 2016 in 2017) and the inventory
result in 2017 (16.53%). However, there was also a little over 1% of progress below the 2005 baseline made
between 2016 and 2017. The drivers of that progress are detailed below.
Table 3. Drivers of 2017 community carbon inventory results.
Drivers of 2017 progress
Impact in 2017 (progress
below baseline)
Emissions factor -1.67%
Decrease in electricity use -0.39%
Increase in VMT 0.50%
Increase in natural gas 0.37%
Decrease in landfilled tons but less methane capture 0.12%
Total impact -1.07%
Progress details
- 2017 saw an approximate 1.67% drop in emissions from the 2005 baseline from changes in the electricity
emissions factor, which positively impacted inventory progress. Due to the relationship between weather
patterns and renewable and non-fossil resource performance, trends should be viewed on a larger timescale
and may not be consistent from year to year.
- Electricity use decrease is likely due to a variety of factors, including City efficiency programs, behavior change,
more efficient appliances, and weather patterns (e.g. mild winter).
- Vehicle miles traveled is a modeled number that has historically increased from year to year due to model
parameters that reflect regional/local growth patterns.
- The increase in natural gas is likely due to a variety of factors, including population growth and weather
patterns.
- In 2017, slightly more waste (adjusted to exclude recovered soils used to burry materials) was sent to landfills
that do not capture methane.
Contact Information
Molly Saylor
Environmental Planner
City of Fort Collins
970.416.2148 office
msaylor@fcgov.com
Overall Summary
Emissions
(Metric Tons CO2e)
Percent Change from
2005 Levels (baseline)
2005 Baseline 2,384,528 N/A
2017 Inventory 1,989,841 -17%
2020 Forecast (Do Nothing More) 2,000,000 -15%
2020 Forecast (Funded/Adopted Initiatives, 140,000 MT) 1,860,000 -22%
2020 Forecast (All Initiatives, Additional 60,000 MT) 1,800,000 -25%
2020 Target 1,907,623 -20%
Projected Surpassing of 2020 Target 121,456 +5%
Funded Initiatives or Adopted Policies
This table represents the 12 of 31 initiatives were funded through the BFO process in 2017-2018 or were adopted via policy discussions. Examples include Business and Home Energy Efficiency
and the Community Recycling Ordinance.
Initiative Policy Type *
Net Community
Costs (Annual)
Net Community Costs
(Thru 2020)
Net City Costs
(Annual)
Net City Costs
(Thru 2020)
Adopted GHG
Impact to 2020
Potential GHG
Impact to 2020
Project Lifetime
$/GHG**
Project Lifetime
Benefit/Cost Ratio
Building Energy Disclosure and Scoring Energy Regulatory/Voluntary $ (310,000) $ (400,000) $ 80,000 $ 300,000 4,000 4,000 $ 33 2.7
Business Efficiency Portfolio Base Energy Voluntary $ (5,700,000) $ 21,200,000 $ 1,410,000 $ 13,200,000 57,000 57,000 $ 35 2.1
Business Efficiency Portfolio Expanded Energy Voluntary $ (4,690,000) $ 13,500,000 $ 1,300,000 $ 15,900,000 27,000 27,000 $ 35 2.0
Energy Code Performance Energy Regulatory $ (130,000) $ 3,700,000 $ 70,000 $ 200,000 4,000 4,000 $ 54 1.1
Home Efficiency Portfolio Base Energy Voluntary
Home Efficiency Portfolio Expanded Energy Voluntary
(SP3) Solar Power Purchase Program Energy Voluntary $ 300,000 $ 900,000 $ 10,000 $ 200,000 3,000 3,000 $ 65 0.0
Utilities Rooftop Solar Incentives Energy Voluntary $ (740,000) $ 25,000,000 $ 330,000 $ 3,000,000 14,000 14,000 $ 58 1.1
Rate Redesign for Time of Day Energy Regulatory $ (40,000) $ (1,300,000) $ - $ 100,000 13,000 13,000 $ 2 23.0
Water Treatment Facility Hydropower Energy Infrastructure $ - $ - $ - $ 700,000 400 400 $ 118 1.0
Transit System Expansion Transportation Infrastructure $ (400,000) $ (1,300,000) $ 7,950,000 $ - 2,000 2,000 $ 4,948 0.1
Community Recycling Ordinance Waste Regulatory $ 2,190,000 $ 5,500,000 $ 40,000 $ 400,000 13,000 13,000 $ 178 0.0
Subtotal 137,400 137,400
Partially Funded Initiatives or Initiatives Requiring Further Vetting/Research to Fully Move Forward
This table represents 8 of the 31 initiatives were either partially funded or require further vetting or research to move forward as an initiative.
Initiative Policy Type*
Net Community
Costs (Annual)
Net Community Costs
(Thru 2020)
Net City Costs
(Annual)
Net City Costs
(Thru 2020)
Adopted GHG
Impact to 2020
Potential GHG
Impact to 2020
Initiatives Not Moved Forward or Not Online in the 2020 Timeframe
Result
Initiatives that will be online in the 2020-2030 timeframe
Projects generally on hold or pending further study.
Projects determined infeasible
Projects already complete and/or available
Baseline Forecast
Initiative Modeling and Key Assumptions
To assess initiatives across a common and transparent platform, staff developed a template that allows teams to enter specific projections. For each initiative, the template included
details on project information, costs, and benefits:
Project Information Annual Costs (to the Administrator, e.g., the City, and the Participants, e.g., the Private Sector) Annual Benefits (to the Administrator and the Participants)
Definition Overhead Costs Reduction in Carbon Emissions by Resource Type
Objectives Incentive Costs Resource Cost Savings
Deliverables Installation Costs Savings in Carbon Emission Costs
Value Proposition Maintenance Costs
Alternatives Analysis
Keys to Success
Pilot/Proof of Concept
Market and Policy Analysis
For common assumptions that are used across many initiatives (i.e. forecasted electric rates, population growth), a list of core variables was included and automatically populated. This
ensures consistency across the initiative estimates and projections.
Initiative Vetting
Confidence Grade
High
Medium
Low
This iterative process will be continued and completed as existing initiatives change, due to changing technology or new information, and expanded as new initiatives are identified.
The Model
How were these numbers arrived at? Explanation of the Forecast, Initiative Modeling and Vetting Process, and the Model
The forecasted level of community CO2 emissions, without the reductions from CAP initiative strategies, is projected under our standard inventory protocol. This projection aggregates
over 600 variables from standard indicators, the community inventory, and the municipal inventory.
Based on these data inputs, the CO2 emissions expected for each resource was calculated. For example, our forecasted electric consumption was developed by Fort Collins Utilities using
a time series model. It was adjusted for economic output and population growth over the next 20
years. This forecast incorporates the realized and forecasted benefits of existing energy efficiency programs, but not the additional funding approved in 2017/2018 BFO process.
The federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards for vehicle emissions were also incorporated into this forecast. CAFÉ impacts are considered to be largely outside of local
control so it was determined to be appropriate to recognize the impacts of these efforts on our
community emissions before evaluating additional local efforts, such as our CAP initiatives.
After template submission, all 31 initiatives underwent vetting by the Finance Mechanisms committee. This included a review of assumptions and calculations for completeness and reasonability.
Based on their assessment, a confidence grade (High/Medium/Low) was provided based on
the following considerations:
(10) Platte River Renewables Purchase (Tariff 7) (community can already opt-in to this service; other utility scale initiatives are more cost-effective at this point); (11) Municipal
Composting Site (completed in 2017)
The green and yellow sections of this spreadsheet illustrate 20 initiatives that were either fully funded (12 initiatives in green) or partially funded or are still being explored (8
initiatives in yellow). An additional 11 initiatives are either not feasible in the 2020 timeframe or have been placed o
to feasibility concerns. Examples include the Construction and Demolition Sorting Facility or Utility Scale Wind.
Policy
(1) Utility Scale Wind (150 MW will go online in December of 2020, with the first full year of operation in 2021); (2) Utility Scale Solar (20 MW RFP currently under review, anticipated
in 2021); (3) Community Shared Solar (a
Utility Scale Solar); (4) Construction and Demolition Facility and (5) Community Recycling (Organics) merged with the Regional Wasteshed Planning Process; (6) Utility Scale Wind (consideration
of additional 75 MW of wind w
determined in December of 2018; if moved forward, it is anticipated the project will be on the same timeframe as the 150 MW effort).
(7) Co-Gen Set at Drake Wastewater Reclamation Facility (pending further analysis); (8) Wood Utilization Study (formerly Biomass Burner);
(9) CSU Waste to Heat (rendered financially infeasible due to length from nearest high pressure gas line);
Following vetting, the individual initiative templates are imported into the aggregate model. This is the same model which houses the baseline forecast. By evaluating potential CO2 emissions
reductions side by side with existing forecasts, staff is able to evaluate trends and analyze
scenarios towards our 2020 goals.
The model retains each initiative’s annual cost and benefit information, in addition to automatically aggregating to lifetime costs and benefits, discounting to net present values, and
calculating the benefit/cost ratio and cost per metric ton of greenhouse gas (GHG) avoided. Standardizing
these metrics allows staff to evaluate the quantitative differences across different initiatives.
Grade Definition
1
Climate Action Plan and 100% Renewable Energy
Jeff Mihelich, Tim McCollough, Lindsay Ex
May 8, 2018
ATTACHMENT 4
$5.9
$3.3
$2.4
2016 & 2017
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
SAVINGS ALONE
7500
Investments = Results
2
2018
2017
2016
INCREASED
MOMENTUM
FROM PLATTE RIVER
& PARTNER CITIES
$
$11.7M TOTAL
NEW CITY
INVESTMENTS
OVERALL IMPACT
LEVERAGING OF
$1.70 FOR EVERY
$1 INVESTED
~$220
ANNUALSAVINGS
PER HOUSEHOLD
And – we have a pathway to our 2020 goals!
Results
3
4
Highlights: Utility Scale Energy
5
Highlights: Utility Scale Energy
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES
• + 75 MW in wind (December)
• 20 MW solar + storage (RFP)
• Corporate Commitments & Requests
Corporate Renewable
Energy Commitments
Corporate Green Rate Tariff Requests
6
Highlights: Local Initiatives
EFFICIENCY
• 2017 savings over 28 gigawatt-hours
(equivalent to 3750 homes)
•3rd
party evaluation confirmed savings and
benefit cost ratio of 1.8
• Adoption of Time of Day rates
DISTRIBUTED RESOURCES
• Over 11 megawatts of local solar
• Distribution system research with CSU
• Demand response pilot with Platte River
7
Highlights: Natural Gas
$1 $3
3,000
(1%)
• Key driver – population increase (slower rate)
• Low cost
CHALLENGE
• Standard equipment in new homes
OPPORTUNITIES
• Heat pump technology advances
• Collaboration with Xcel
• Building Energy Scoring
Natural gas emissions are up 2% since 2016; 7% since 2005!
7%
INCREASE
NATURAL GAS
8
Highlights: Transportation
$1 $3
3,000
(1%)
1,500
(0.5%)
ALIGNMENT & IMPROVEMENTS
• City Plan & Transportation Master Plan
• Travel behavior survey
• Electric bus testing
Picture of…
Transportation emissions are up 2% since 2016; but have decreased by 10% since 2005!
9
Highlights: Waste Materials
$1 $3
3,000
(1%)
1,500
(0.5%)
REGIONAL WASTESHED PLANNING
• Unprecedented collaboration
• Infrastructure recommendations to Council May 22
• Policy discussions coming soon
GROCERY STORE COMPOSTING SUCCESS
• All grocers participating by end of 2017
• Drastically reduced landfilling (from 7x to 2-3x/wk)
Changes in global recycling markets have led to low
prices and low contamination threshold for recyclables
Waste emissions are up 4% since 2016; but have decreased by 70% since 2005!
10
Highlights: Innovation
$1 $3
3,000
(1%)
1,500
(0.5%)
11
Highlights: Innovation
EV Readiness Roadmap
Innovation Fort Collins Challenge
& Innovation Summit
12
Highlights: Innovation
$1 $3
BATTERIES
• Demonstration project underway
• Commercial scale battery at
222 Laporte
• Residential batteries installations
RESEARCH, DATA AND MODELING
• CSU grid system modeling
• Solar Resource Monitoring
13
Highlights: Community Engagement
$1 $3
3,000
(1%)
1,500
(0.5%)
80% of Fort Collins residents support the City investing in
programs and creating policies to address climate change
14
Highlights: Community Engagement
$1
Updated Projections
15
Where We’re Heading
16
• Continue Alignment with City Plan
and Transportation Master Plan
• Innovation Fort Collins Challenge (Apr)
• Campaign launch (June)
• Building Energy Scoring (Aug)
• Combined update to the CAP Framework
and Energy Policy (2019-2020)
Update to most recent
screen shot
17
Climate Action Plan and 100% Renewable Energy
Jeff Mihelich, Tim McCollough, Lindsay Ex
May 8, 2018
Substantial vetting; contains detailed breakdown of all major costs and benefits, with clear links on what drives benefits. Includes consideration to sensitivity of key variables over
time. Can be validated vs. external
benchmarks.
Moderate vetting; contains reasonable detail on breakdown of major costs and benefits. Justifies linkage and scale of benefits. Substantiated with internal data.
First pass vetting; includes required data, but can be issued a low rating due to insufficient detail on the breakdown of one or more major costs or benefits, poor linkage between cost
and benefit, or oversimplified
assumptions (such as flat costs in perpetuity).
Project Lifetime
$/GHG**
Project Lifetime
Benefit/Cost Ratio
Green Building Energy Voluntary $ 180,000 $ 1,800,000 $ 30,000 $ 200,000 - 1,000 $ 113 0.5
Street Lighting Upgrades Energy Voluntary $ - $ - $ (170,000) $ 700,000 - 3,000 $ 17 6.1
Expand Congestion Management System Transportation Infrastructure $ (7,110,000) $ (10,100,000) $ 1,800,000 $ 6,100,000 8,500 17,000 $ 62 3.9
Bicycle Network & Ridership Improvements Transportation Infrastructure $ (7,440,000) $ (12,700,000) $ 1,130,000 $ 6,100,000 1,000 20,000 $ 37 6.6
Improve Pedestrian Network Transportation Infrastructure $ (310,000) $ (400,000) $ 1,070,000 $ 13,900,000 400 1,000 $ 844 0.3
Trip Reduction Program Transportation Voluntary $ (4,630,000) $ (3,000,000) $ 180,000 $ 700,000 - 5,000 $ 10 25.5
Land Use Patterns Land and Water Use Regulatory $ (3,940,000) $ (12,400,000) $ 130,000 $ - 10,000 20,000 $ 8 28.6
Utilities Landscape Irrigation Incentives Land and Water Use Voluntary $ 230,000 $ 400,000 $ (330,000) $ (800,000) - 100 $ 2 2.2
Subtotal 19,900 67,100
*Type Grand Total 157,300 204,500
Initiatives are categorized by the following types: Regulatory, Voluntary, and Infrastructure Adopted vs. Potential 47,200
Regulatory indicates that participation is driven by policy
Voluntary indicates that participation is by choice
Infrastrucuture indicates that capital investments are made that drive emissions reductions
**GHG Impact calculated from net present value of all costs associated with the initiative, divided by lifetime GHG benefits.
Projections if actions not taken; Based on 2017 inventory and does not include projected savings from 2018
Projections: Assumes the fully funded initiatives (in green below) will also be funded at the same levels in 2019-2020, e.g., energy efficiency
Projections: Assumes the remaining initiatives (in yellow below) are fully funded or adopted between now and 2020
Detailed Spreadsheets of the Initiatives
These tables represent the synthesized data for all 31 initiatives, including which initiatives have moved forward (green), those which are either partially funded or need more vetting
(yellow), and those which have been paused/stopped (red).
Notes
Actuals
Actuals
Projections
Fort Collins is forecast to exceed the 2020 goal by 5% with all identified and funded initiatives
Included in Business Efficiency Base
Included in Business Efficiency Expanded
ATTACHMENT 3