HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOUNCIL - AGENDA ITEM - 01/13/2015 - COMMUNITY BUILDOUT UPDATEDATE:
STAFF:
January 13, 2015
Cameron Gloss, Planning Manager
Jeff Mihelich, Deputy City Manager
Bruce Hendee, Chief Sustainability Officer
Laurie Kadrich, Community Development &
Neighborhood Services Dir
WORK SESSION ITEM
City Council
SUBJECT FOR DISCUSSION
Community Buildout Update.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The purpose of this item is to present the City’s most recent populations projections, possible community buildout
scenarios, and implications for growth on our carbon footprint. Materials presented by staff will show growth
trends that will help inform ongoing policy discussions such as the Climate Action Plan. This item is being
brought forward to Council at the request of the Futures Committee.
GENERAL DIRECTION SOUGHT AND SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED
This is an information item, in preparation for the Climate Action Plan discussion and questions, therefore no
specific questions are posed to Council.
BACKGROUND / DISCUSSION
2014 Population Estimate
Planning staff prepares annual population estimates and projections that are used by numerous public and private
sector interests. Various City departments use the information in planning for water, wastewater, electric,
stormwater, land use, transportation, police coverage, and other services.
The preliminary 2014 population estimate for the City is 155,400 and the Fort Collins Growth Management Area
(GMA) is 169,000. Using the 2.371% compounded growth rate observed over the past 20 years, the GMA is
projected to grow to 218,680 people in the next ten years. This figure is based on Colorado State Demographer
projections, historic growth rates, employment forecasts, and other sources.
Our population growth closely matches the rate of growth projected during the creation of City Plan. The first
iteration of the Plan anticipated a population of 150,000 by the year 2015 based upon a compounded annual
2.167% growth rate. As a point of comparison, the actual growth rate during the last twenty years was 2.371%.
Historical population and housing statistics dating back to 1950 can be found in Attachment 1.
The City relies on the State Demography Office to provide final population estimates, although estimates for a
given year area are typically not completed until the latter part of the following year (e.g., the 2012 estimates were
not completed until August 2013). Unfortunately, this reflects a 1.5 year lag in the final information.
Prior to obtaining the State estimate, Planning staff calculates a preliminary population estimate in January of the
subject year. When the State finalizes their population numbers, the preliminary estimate is replaced with the
new State estimate.
January 13, 2015 Page 2
The methodology for calculating the preliminary population estimate in 2014 is as follows:
2013 housing units (FC) = 62,875
Net increase housing units (FC) = 1,411
Combined total housing units = 64,286
Vacancy Rate 2.71 (State) = 1,742 (vacant HU)
Occupied housing units = 62,544
Average Household Size (State) = 2.37
62,544 x 2.37 = 148,229 (Household population)
+ Group Quarter Population (State) = 7,167
Household Pop. + Group Quarter Pop. = 155,396
Round off (nearest hundredths) = 155,400
2013 ESTIMATE 2014 ESTIMATE
Housing Unit Total 61,728 62,875
Net Increase 1,147 1,411
Total Housing Units 62,875 64,286
Vacancy Rate 3.20% 2.71%
Vacant Housing Units 2,012 1,742
Occupied Housing Units 60,863 62,544
Average Household Size 2.37 2.37
Household Population 144,245 148,229
Group Quarter Population 7,085 7,167
Total Population 151,330 155,396
Preliminary Population Estimate 151,330 155,400
Community Buildout Analysis
Based on historic growth rates and development potential under present regulations, Fort Collins has up to a 17-
year supply of buildable land, with buildout projected for 2032.
Staff maintains a Buildable Lands Inventory that is a database of developable lands within the existing GMA. It
provides the basis for estimating the remaining development capacity of the GMA which is referred to as a
“buildout analysis”.
The buildout analysis explains what is likely to happen if the Fort Collins community grows to the full extent
allowed under City Plan and the Land Use Code, within the present Growth Management Area (GMA) boundary.
The analysis assumes new development and construction on remaining, vacant or redevelopment parcels that
are not encumbered by natural resource lands-floodways, natural resources and required buffers- along with
public facilities like parks and schools. It also takes into account the growth of Colorado State University based on
the latest adopted campus master plans.
The 2014 Buildout Analysis concludes that:
January 13, 2015 Page 3
The existing Growth Management Area can accommodate 236,000 - 255,000 people total depending
on the intensity of new development and level of redevelopment. In 2014, the population was
155,396. The remaining capacity of the GMA is approximately 81,000 - 100,000 people. Using the
recent historical average population growth rate (2.371%), the GMA reaches capacity between 2028-
2032. This represents an additional 10-year residential supply than previously projected.
As our inventory of lands available for development dwindle, redevelopment and infill will become
stronger possibilities. Redevelopment is estimated to add approximately 10,000 residents and 4,500 -
7,500 jobs. Detailed subarea plans, primarily for Midtown, Downtown, and North College, form the
basis for zoning allowances that are used as the basis for these figures.
The jobs-housing balance is approximately 1.5 jobs per residential unit. This is forecast to stay
about the same in the future. The jobs-housing balance for the State of Colorado is approximately
1.73 jobs to one residential unit.
2040 Socio-Economic Forecast for the North Front Range
The North Front Range Metropolitan Planning Organization (NFRMPO) maintains an on-going Land Use
Allocation Model that is divided into six subareas: City of Fort Collins, City of Loveland, City of Greeley,
remainder of the NFRMPO modeling area, and the ozone nonattainment area of Larimer County and Weld
Counties. Buildout data represents development of land based on comprehensive plans throughout the NFRMPO
area and serves as maximums for growth in the land use model, which provides the basis for the travel demand
model, which is used to project future travel volumes on roadways and transit ridership. Some of the preliminary
findings from the NFRMPO 2040 regional demographic and economic forecasts will be presented to Council at
the work session.
The Final NFRMPO regional demographic and economic forecast report will provide:
A regional forecast with major macroeconomic indicators and subarea totals out to the year 2040;
A population and household demographic forecast out to the year 2040 for the persons and households
projected to be in the NFRMPO region; and
Complete documentation of the models.
ATTACHMENTS
1. Population History (PDF)
2. Powerpoint presentation (PDF)
YEAR
CENSUS
POPULATION
(APRIL)
CENSUS HOUSING
(APRIL)
CITY SIZE SQ.
MI. (JANUARY)
CITY POPULATION
ESTIMATE (JULY)
Preliminary
CITY HOUSING
ESTIMATE
(JULY)
CITY HOUSING
UNIT PERMITS
HOUSING ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE
ESTIMATED
POPULATION
INCREASE PER
YEAR
1950 14,937 N/A 2.97 14,937 N/A N/A N/A
1960 25,027 7,951 6.00 25,027 7,951 N/A N/A
'50-'60
Increase 10,090 N/A 3.03 N/A N/A
Percentage 67.6% N/A 102.0% Average Annual Population Growth Rate = 5.3%
1970 43,337 13,838 10.52 43,337 13,838 634 4.6% 1,255
'60-'70
Increase 18,310 5,887 4.52 N/A N/A
Percentage 73.2% 74.0% 75.3% Average Annual Population Growth Rate = 5.6%
1980 65,092 25,382 21.65 65,092 25,382 991 3.9% 2,354
'70-'80
Increase 21,755 11,544 11.13 10,993 1,099
Percentage 50.2% 83.4% 105.8% Average Annual Population Growth Rate = 4.2%
1981 25.34 67,446 26,373 608 2.3% 1,444
1982 68,534 (7/1/82) 27.34 68,890 26,981 532 2.0% 1,264
1983 27.59 70,153 27,513 1,329 4.8% 3,156
1984 70,721 (7/1/84) 29.43 73,310 28,842 1,615 5.6% 3,836
1985 32.28 77,145 30,457 1,493 4.9% 3,546
1986 32.46 80,691 31,950 901 2.8% 2,140
1987 34.95 82,831 32,851 879 2.7% 2,088
1988 36.38 84,919 33,730 774 2.3% 1,838
1989 38.89 86,757 34,504 572 1.7% 1,001
1990 87,758 35,357 40.65 87,758 35,357 728 2.1% 1,681
'80-'90
Increase 22,666 9,975 19.00 9,694 969
Percentage 34.8% 39.3% 87.8% Average Annual Population Growth Rate = 3.0%
1991 41.09 89,439 36,085 666 1.8% 1,678
1992 41.86 91,117 36,751 894 2.4% 2,064
1993 42.12 93,181 37,645 1,173 3.1% 2,708
1994 42.65 95,889 38,818 1,462 3.8% 3,837
1995 44.02 99,726 40,480 1,232 3.0% 2,844
1996 104,196 (7/1/96) 44.20 102,571 41,712 1,762 4.2% 3,652
HISTORIC POPULATION AND HOUSING UNIT STATISTICS
1
ATTACHMENT 1
YEAR
CENSUS
POPULATION
(APRIL)
CENSUS HOUSING
(APRIL)
CITY SIZE SQ.
MI. (JANUARY)
CITY POPULATION
ESTIMATE (JULY)
Preliminary
CITY HOUSING
ESTIMATE
(JULY)
CITY HOUSING
UNIT PERMITS
HOUSING ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE
ESTIMATED
POPULATION
INCREASE PER
YEAR
1997 44.20 106,223 43,294 1,315 3.0% 2,758
1998 44.90 108,981 44,489 1,703 3.8% 3,931
1999 113,432 (7/1/99) 45.68 112,912 46,192 1,892 4.1% 5,740
2000 118,652 47,755 46.44 118,652 47,755 1,582 4.4% 5,205
'90-'00
Increase 30,894 12,398 5.79 30,894 12,827
Percentage 35.2% 35.1% 14.2% 35.2% Average Annual Population Growth Rate = 3.1%
2001 122,479 46.98 123,857 49,337 1,899 3.8% 2,431
2002 124,621 49.43 126,288 51,236 1,579 3.1% 1,179
2003 125,933 50.51 127,467 52,815 1,422 2.7% 2,649
2004 126,995 51.00 130,116 54,237 1,386 2.6% 786
2005 128,017 51.12 130,902 55,623 1,160 2.1% 2,288
2006 129,467 51.57 133,190 56,783 887 1.6% 2,171
2007 135,397 52.08 135,361 57,670 601 1.0% 2,250
2008 136,665 2008 ACS 52.72 137,611 58,271 778 1.3% 2,476
2009 133,801 2009 ACS 53.38 140,087 59,049 1,105 1.9% 2,463
2010 143,986 60,503 55.46 143,986 60,503 313 0.5% 709
'00-'10
Increase 25,334 12,748 9.02 25,334 12,399
Percentage 21.4% 26.7% 19.4% 21.4% Average Annual Population Growth Rate = 1.9%
2011 2011 ACS 55.58 146,573 60,813 857 1.4% 2,587
2012 148,634 2012 ACS 55.69 148,167 61,673 1,147 1.9% 1,594
2013 2013 ACS 55.83 152,205 62,875 1,411 2.2% 4,038
2014 56.61 155,400 P 64,286 3,194
HOUSING NET INCREASE: Starting in 2002, the Building & Zoning Department began tracking the addition of new housing units through the issuance of building permits and new
manufactured units, and the loss of housing units through demolition or conversion to non-residential uses. This column, thus, represents data on the net increase of housing units in
the city. In 2003, the City annexed a county enclave containing 91 housing units; in 2009, the City annexed a county enclave conatining 866 units. These units were added to the Building
Departments new/demolished/converted data.
POPULATION ESTIMATES: Population estimates are made by the State Demographer's Office. However, an estimate for a given year is typically not completed until the latter part of the
following year. Therefore, the City uses building permit information to produce preliminary estimates for years not yet covered by the State. The City estimates are identified with a
"P"
in the above table. When the State completes their methodology to produce a year's estimate, that estimate then takes the place of the City's preliminary estimate.
2
1
Fort Collins Community Buildout Analysis
January 13, 2015
City Council Work Session
ATTACHMENT 2
2
Work Session Purposes
q Review data and trends that illustrate
a likely future development pattern
q Provide background information that
can inform future discussions on the
Climate Action Plan
3
Today’s Population
q 155,400 - City
q 169,000 - GMA
4
History of Fort Collins Growth Boundary
1979
Urban Service
Area Study
1980
Urban Growth
Area-1st IGA
2000
Growth Management
Area-Amended IGA
2004
City Plan
LaPorte
SE
AB
Fossil Creek
Reservoir
Foothills
5
Buildout Analysis
What will likely happen if the Fort
Collins community grows to the full
extent allowed under City Plan and the
Land Use Code
6
Greenfield vs. Infill vs.
Infill Redevelopment
creation of new housing or other buildings on scattered vacant sites
in a built-up area.
Redevelopment
q A more intensive use of existing underused buildings and sites
(often including building additions and floor plan reconfiguration);
or
q Rehabilitation and adaptive re-use of historic buildings and sites,
often for new uses; or
q Removal of existing building(s), followed by a replacement with
different buildings, often larger and containing more intensive
uses.
7
+ Existing GMA (including recent Timnath IGA
amendment)
+ Uses and Intensity under City Plan and Land
Use Code
+ Buildable lands are remaining, vacant or
redevelopable parcels in the Growth
Management Area
– Natural areas
– conservation easements
– future park/school locations
– natural resource buffers
– floodways
Assumptions
8
Assumptions
q Approved/In-Process Projects :
q under construction
q Approved, but not yet built
q proposals under review
q 2012 CSU Master Plan
q New densities similar to recent averages – historical
scenario
q Maximize the potential density permitted in each
zoning district – maximum scenario
9
GMA Population Buildout
*Average population growth (City of Fort Collins only; 10-yr. average): 1.85%
GMA Population Capacity (historic development densities) 236,384
GMA Population Capacity (high development densities) 255,247
GMA Population Buildout Scenarios (Year):
Scenario 1% Avg. Annual
Population Growth
2% Avg. Annual
Population Growth
3% Avg. Annual
Population Growth
Historic Development
Density 2040 + 2031 2025
Maximum Development
Density 2040+ 2036 2028
10
Date of Population Buildout
11
Buildable Lands
12
Mulberry/Mt. Vista
13
Downtown/Midtown
14
15
2040 Regional Employment Growth
16
17
2040 Regional Residential Growth
18
Fort Collins Housing becoming less attainable
19
20
Boulder & Fort Collins Commuting
• Fort Collins
–55% of workers live in Fort Collins
Source: 2014 Housing Affordability Policy Study (HAPS)
• Boulder
–33.7% of workers live in Boulder
Source: 2012 Commuting Patterns Survey, Boulder Economic Council
21
Housing Affordability ‘Gaps’
2000 Comparison
22
Housing Affordability ‘Gaps’
2012 Comparison
23
Boulder Housing:
Location of Affordable
Households $77k income
50,000 workers commute to
Boulder per day
Source: Boulder Co. Trends 2013
Source: BBC Research & Consulting and 2012 MLS
• Single Family Unit
• Attached Unit
24
Recent Shift in Commuting Patterns
25
Using Carbon Emissions to Measure
Sustainability
City Plan
Principle ENV 11: …”to reduce the impact of the
Fort Collins community on global climate change,
the Fort Collins community will reduce
greenhouse gas emissions 20% below 2005
levels by 2020 and 80% by 2050.”
How does community size and density impact
carbon emissions?
26
Carbon Footprint
Source: Purdue University
Vulcan Project
CO2 Emissions
Emissions Composite
Map:
-Powerplant
-Industrial
-Mobile Source
-Residential/Commercial
Metric tons
27
Carbon Footprint Per Capita
28
Development Patterns impact carbon
emissions
Source: Purdue University
Total Emissions Per Capita Emissions
29
Recapping the Data
• The North Front Range will continue to grow and
its communities will be faced with growth-related
challenges.
• Fort Collins Buildout Analysis depicts a 13-
40+year land supply, dependent on the rate of
growth and City Plan, and an ultimate population
between 236,000- 255,000 residents.
• Community size and density substantially impact
carbon emissions.
30
Need for Community Balance
• Data speaks to the need for a Balanced
Community:
– Balance of Housing and Jobs
– Attainable housing relative to wages
– A continuum of housing types in
‘complete’ and diverse neighborhoods
– Employment and services near housing
– A balanced transportation system
31
Upcoming Opportunities to Address Land
Use and Climate Policy
q Community Climate Action Plan – 2015
q Affordable Housing Strategic Plan – 2015
q City Plan Update – projected 2017