HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOUNCIL - AGENDA ITEM - 12/09/2014 - CLIMATE ACTION PLAN - STRATEGY ANALYSIS AND CRAFTIDATE:
STAFF:
December 9, 2014
Lucinda Smith, Environmental Sustainability Director
Bruce Hendee, Chief Sustainability Officer
Steven Catanach, Light & Power Operations Manager
WORK SESSION ITEM
City Council
SUBJECT FOR DISCUSSION
Climate Action Plan - Strategy Analysis and Crafting Scenarios.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The purpose of this work session is to summarize results of the preliminary Climate Action Plan (CAP) strategies
analysis, outline next steps for model refinement and scenario development, highlight some key tactics proposed
in the CAP strategies, review plans for public engagement, outline the scope of the CAP that staff expects to bring
to Council in February, and seek feedback from Council. The CAP being developed for February 2015 will
provide a high level road map but will not address implementation details. Council will have an opportunity to
indicate if the project is moving in the right direction.
In April 2014, City Council asked that an ad hoc committee be formed to develop a proposed updated Climate
Action Plan that describes how the community could take to achieve a greenhouse gas emissions reduction goal
of 20% below 2005 levels by 2020, 80% below 2005 by 2030, and carbon neutrality (a 100% reduction in net
greenhouse gas emission) by the year 2050. This Council work session is the third of four planned work sessions
to review progress.
GENERAL DIRECTION SOUGHT AND SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED
1. Does Council have feedback on the proposed City policy elements identified thus far?
2. Does Council have any comments on the planned public engagement?
3. Is Council comfortable considering a high level CAP in February 2015 that could be followed by a more
detailed implementation plan?
4. Is there any additional information City Council wants staff to investigate before February 2015?
BACKGROUND / DISCUSSION
The Climate Action Plan update is occurring under a very ambitious time schedule. There is significant technical
expertise being brought to bear through the work of the Brendle Group, Rocky Mountain Institute, Platte River
Power Authority, the Citizen Advisory Committee, the CAP staff team, and others.
As in 1999 and in 2008, the CAP is intended to be a strategic plan that provides a rational basis for establishing
community greenhouse gas reduction goals and serves as a road map for community carbon reduction by
outlining a responsible energy future and ways to build a more resilient community. All CAP strategies that
involve City Council approval will require further development and vetting though the public process in the future.
Anticipated outcomes of setting an aspirational greenhouse gas goal include attracting outside capital as well
increased local innovation and entrepreneurial activity. An aspirational goal can drive further action to reduce
emissions than would occur without a goal and plan. It can spur the community’s engagement, competitive spirit,
and sense of pride.
The scope, schedule, and resources for the CAP update project are briefly described below.
December 9, 2014 Page 2
CAP Scope - the updated CAP brought forward for Council consideration in February 2015 will be a high level
strategic plan that will contain the following:
Discussion of Need - Risks and consequence of “Business and Usual” and opportunities from accelerated
climate action
Description of strategies - and associated tactics for each strategy, including co-benefits
Implementation matrix - a general timeline for implementing strategies and tactics in the following timeframes:
o Immediate - current budget cycle (2015-2016),
o Near Term - next two budget cycles (2017 - 2020)
o Long Term - 2020-2030 and 2030-2050 (Descriptions of strategies in the “2030 to 2050” timeframe
will be very generalized.)
Potential Financing Approaches- a set of potential financing approaches, each of which will require further
development and exploration to be implemented, and recommended next steps for financing.
Recommendations for monitoring and reporting
CAP Schedule - The project schedule has been built with the objective of bringing a draft CAP to City Council on
February 17, 2015. Recognizing that many components of the strategic CAP will become clearer with time, staff
recommends that the first CAP serve as a strategic scoping plan, and that a more detailed CAP implementation
plan be developed once new technology options have been more fully evaluated.
CAP Resources - City funded consultant resources, supplemented by RMI’s foundation-funded research, along
with the expertise of the Climate Citizen Advisory Committee (CAC) and other experts, has focused on exploring
best practice strategies to meet the GHG reduction objectives, identifying the costs and benefits, and gathering
public input on CAP strategies. Less time has been invested thus far in public awareness-raising about climate
change and the need for action, or on exploring multiple innovative financing mechanisms.
I. First CAP Model Iteration
In October, the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) completed in-depth research on tactics covering six areas of the
CAP. Tactics are defined as implementation steps, best practices, or activities that support the design and
implementation of strategies.
In November, the Brendle Group compiled that information, along with other inputs and assumptions not
addressed in the RMI research, to generate the first run of the CAP model. A few adjustments were made to
assumptions documented in the RMI tactics based on additional discussions with staff and local experts.
The preliminary model results suggest a number of important things:
1. The first initial run of the CAP model presents a pathway is close to reaching the accelerated GHG reduction
objectives. The model run contains strategies that are based on underlying best practice research. Taking
into account the uncertainty of the modeling assumptions, the preliminary results are very close to achieving
the stated reduction objectives. We believe with further adjustment, these strategies can meet the reduction
objectives. Attachment 1 illustrates the set of strategies and their resultant impact on emissions reductions.
The CAP team is continuing to refine and calibrate the model. First run results should not anchor Council’s
thinking on how the final CAP scenarios will be dialed after incorporating further input.
2. Many of the strategies are “dialed up” to a relatively high implementation rate.
3. Energy strategies provide the greatest GHG reduction potential In the initial model run, the two largest GHG
reduction strategies are utility scale renewable energy (38% of total reductions in 2030) and energy efficiency
in existing buildings (27% of total reductions in 2030).
4. Electricity is the biggest component of emissions, and renewable energy will play a critical role in achieving
the emissions reduction objectives. It is important to determine the appropriate level of utility scale, grid-
based renewable and distributed renewables that will maintain reliable electric service. Some concerns have
been expressed about the ability to balance and firm very high levels of renewables on the local distribution
December 9, 2014 Page 3
system and regional electric grid. A strong partnership between Fort Collins Utilities and Platte River will be
required to design a distributed electricity system that allows the City to reach its goals while increasing grid
resiliency.
5. CAP model analysis of cumulative net costs or savings is very dependent on several elements including
electric and other rate increases, inclusion or not of a cost for carbon, application of a discount rate, etc. (See
Attachment 1 for more detail). Details of the electric rate impacts will be available for City Council in January
2015, following modeling by Platte River Power Authority and subsequent retail rate impact analysis by Fort
Collins Utilities.
CAP Model Assumptions
Like any model, the CAP model functions by performing calculations on assumptions about GHG impacts of
reduction strategies and the associated costs. There are a few components of the CAP model assumptions that
are either not available now or are undergoing refinement. It is therefore important not to view the preliminary
model run as a complete or recommended “Scenario”.
Additional work is still needed in a number of areas such as final selection of a discount rate to determine savings,
and inclusion or exclusion of elements of the GHG inventory. Attachment 1 describes in more detail choices that
still must be made to refine the model and generate a scenario or scenarios.
6. The first CAP model run of strategies would result in the outcomes listed below, by 2030. These outcomes
are provided to give some context to the magnitude of change needed. However, adjustments are anticipated
to the individual strategies.
o Electric supply:
o 80% reduction in GHG intensity of all electric power supplied to the Fort Collins electric grid (wholesale
and distributed sources)
o Existing homes and businesses:
o 36% more efficient than today’s buildings
o 40% of homes and 10% of commercial buildings are converted to all electric (heating, cooking, etc.)
o 22% of homes and 50% of businesses have installed solar
o New construction:
o Will use only 15% of the energy used by today’s buildings under current code
o 45% will have enough solar PV to achieve net zero energy
o 30% of new homes and 10% of new businesses will be all electric
o Vehicles and Mileage:
o 90 percent of new vehicles purchased in 2030 are electric vehicles (EV’s)
o Remaining 10% of new vehicles purchased are ~40% more efficient than avg. new stock
o People are driving 29% less miles per year (per capita VMT reduction)
II. Creating Scenarios
Scenarios (a set of GHG reduction strategies) can be built around fundamentally different approaches to GHG
reduction. The three major components of successful climate action are:
Role of technology
Role of community engagement and uptake of strategies
Role of financing opportunities
Therefore, CAP scenarios can be built around prioritizing each of these components. Each approach has its own
risks and uncertainties. Two scenario options are identified below.
1. Scenario based on maximized utility scale renewable energy (technology- based; therefore lower risk of not
achieving objectives).
December 9, 2014 Page 4
2. Scenario based on maximizing community participation in strategies such as distributed generation, rooftop
and ground mounted solar panels, more electric cars, etc.(behavior based; therefore higher risk of not
achieving objectives)
III. Platte River Power Authority Integrated Resource Planning
Platte River Power Authority (Platte River) has completed modeling of two preliminary scenarios to begin
informing their Integrated Resource Planning process. Attachment 2 provides the highlights of this analysis.
“RS” is a reference scenario developed assuming no early retirements for existing generation units and relatively
constant hydropower supply, with new simple cycle natural gas units added over time to meet forecasted load
growth (from a baseline forecast). It includes expansion of demand side management (energy efficiency)
technologies at a rate of about 0.5% annually (year after year into the future) and also includes the 200% increase
in wind energy additions Platte River plans for its 2015 budget (relative to 2013 actual wind supply). It does not
include the 30 MW solar project for 2016 that is being considered for the Rawhide site (bids are being evaluated).
The RS case meets reliability requirements, but does not meet Platte River’s Strategic Plan guidelines for GHG
reductions or renewable energy additions.
If an estimated “cost of carbon” is applied to the RS scenario (represented as a CO2 tax), wholesale electric rates
would increase by about 15% by 2020, 54% by 2030 and 90% by 2040 - relative to rates with no CO2 tax.
AS-1 represents a first alternative set of generation resources additions (natural gas, wind and solar) that could
accomplish the following GHG reduction guidelines:
20% reduction by 2020 relative to 2005
35% reduction by 2030 (as a proxy for the EPA proposed Clean Power Plan)
80% reduction by 2050 relative to 2005
AS-1 does not represent an optimal resource scenario. More modeling work is needed to consider increased
levels of demand side management and to evaluate distributed generation options. Further analysis is also
required to consider impacts on operations and system reliability associated with large amounts of renewable
energy sources added to the electric system (distribution level or utility scale). Though the models have been run
through 2050, results beyond a 20-year planning horizon are necessarily simplified and results are much less
certain.
Assuming a cost of carbon is applied, the difference in wholesale electric rates between RS and AS-1 is about
13% in 2020 and decreases through 2040. Without a “cost of carbon”, the AS-1 scenario is estimated to require
rates to be 13% higher than the RS scenario in 2020 and 30% higher in 2030. For context, Fort Collins Utilities
customer rates have risen 40% in the past decade. Between now and 2030, wholesale electric rates are
forecasted to increase 11% in the RS case.
Platte River’s preliminary analysis of the two additional scenarios for Fort Collins will be completed in mid-
December. These include:
Scenario AS-FC1 - a 20% reduction by 2020, and an 80% reduction by 2030 from Platte River electric system
CO2 emissions in 2005, and
Scenario AS-FC2- a 20% reduction by 2020, and a 60% reduction by 2030 from Platte River electric system CO2
emissions in 2005. Scenario AS-2 was requested by the City to provide an additional increment between the
2030 CO2 target proposed in the EPA’s Clean Power Plan and the City’s primary scenario, AS-FC1.
IV. Potential Policy Elements of CAP Strategies
Attachment 3 provides longer descriptions of CAP strategies that include a listing of tactics embedded in the
strategies. Achieving an 80% reduction by 2030 will require a full suite of approaches ranging from education and
incentives to partnerships and mandates. Staff is interested in knowing whether there are any policy elements
December 9, 2014 Page 5
that Council is not interested in considering at this time, recognizing that there is relatively little room for
adjustment while still being able to meet the goal.
The list below identifies tactics included in the two CAP strategies that provide the greatest GHG reduction, as
currently defined; Increase Energy Efficiency in residential and commercial sectors, and Advanced Renewable
Energy at the Utility Scale.
Strategy: Increase Energy Efficiency in the Institutional, Commercial, and Industrial Sectors
Energy efficiency for existing commercial
Require multifamily, commercial and industrial energy reporting and disclosure
Require energy improvement measures for buildings above an established Energy Use Intensity (EUI)
standard
Require certification of building operators who manage base building systems
Require retro-commissioning once every 10 years
Require upgrades of lighting fixtures in non-residential spaces
Institute submetering and requiring proportionate billing for office tenants of at least 5,000 square feet in
size, and retail tenants at least 1,000 square feet
Reduce municipal government building energy use by 31 percent by 2030 and provide annual tracking
and disclosure
Develop and implement a new utility business model where the utility facilitates deep energy retrofits and
the customer can finance projects through on-bill tariffs or other new innovative
Demand Response for existing commercial and industrial
Move commercial customers into a demand instructive rate or participation in other demand response
programs
Strategy: Increase Energy Efficiency in the Residential Sector
Energy efficiency for existing residential
Implementing a rental licensing program, which would require landlords to make energy efficiency
improvements (or demonstrate compliance) every time they renew their rental license
Developing and providing a new utility business model where a basic standard package of energy
efficiency and photovoltaic offerings is extended to all customers and measures are paid back on the
customers’ utility bills
Addressing barriers for condominium energy-efficiency improvements (e.g. access to credit)
Engaging in a residential public awareness and educational campaign focused on what residents can do
to support achievement of the 80% GHG reduction goal by 2030
Increasing access to energy efficiency loans and funding by integrating options into wellness programs
offered by employers to their employees
Demand Response for existing residential
Converting residential customers to demand instructive utility rate structures
Developing and providing a new utility business model that provides on-bill financing for residential
energy improvements, which would also include Demand Response technology
December 9, 2014 Page 6
Strategy: Advance Renewable Energy at the Utility Scale
This strategy would focus specifically on tactics required to increase large scale renewables to the level
needed to meet the City’s goals. This strategy will require close coordination with Platte River’s resource
planning activities.
VII. Public Engagement on CAP Update
Attachment 4 lists the stakeholder and public meetings that are planned and that staff is seeking to set up. City
Council will have the opportunity to indicate whether the planned outreach is adequate for the scope of the draft
CAP to be considered in February 2015.
The CAP public engagement plan is intended to
present the history and benefit of Fort Collins’ climate action planning, including a range of co-benefits
present a potential roadmap (or roadmap options) for meeting the proposed GHG objectives, and associated
costs and benefits
gather feedback on the concepts.
The CAP public engagement is not:
a robust awareness-raising program to inform the community, citizen and business about the needs for
climate action
a community engagement plan or marketing plan for climate action
an opportunity to intentionally explore partnerships built around specific strategies or tactics.
Comprehensive public vetting of each action called for in the plan, since each strategic action will require
more analysis and a detailed implementation proposal before Council considers adoption of the strategy or
tactic.
These engagement needs will be identified as important next steps in the draft CAP.
VIII. CAP Financing Approaches
Achieving aspirational GHG goals will require significant investments into our community. A primary role for the
City is to act as a catalyst for financing. The City can be selective in how much credit it wishes to extend and how
much risk to assume; for additional funds it can act as a conduit for third-party capital to directly reach customers,
citizens, and businesses. The CAP team and consultants are actively exploring financing approaches that would
be appropriate for Fort Collins. Attachment 5 identifies potential financing principles or guidelines for various
parties. Next steps in the CAP process involve clarifying the requirements, opportunities and limitations of various
potential “actors” in CAP financing, including the City government and Utility, the consumer, and outside
investors.
Staff has planned a discussion about potential financing strategies with the Council Finance Committee in
January 2015.
VIII. President’s Task Force on Climate Change and Resiliency and Related Next Steps
After more than a year’s work, the President’s State, Local and Tribal Leaders Task Force on Climate
Preparedness on which Mayor Weitkunat served, submitted their recommendation to the President. The Task
Force organized its report across seven cross-cutting themes: building resilient communities; improving resilience
in the Nation’s infrastructure; ensuring resilience of natural resources; preserving human health and supporting
resilient populations; supporting climate-smart hazard mitigation and disaster preparedness and recovery;
understanding and acting on the economics of resilience; and building capacity. To see the full report visit
fcgov.com/taskforce <http://www.fcgov.com/taskforce>.
December 9, 2014 Page 7
As noted in the recommendations report,
“Climate change is already affecting communities in every region of the country as well as key
sectors of the economy. Recent events like Hurricane Sandy in the Northeast, flooding
throughout the Midwest, and severe drought in the West have highlighted the vulnerability of
many communities to the impacts of climate change. In 2012 alone, the cost of weather disasters
exceeded $110 billion in the United States, and climate change will only increase the frequency
and intensity of these events. That is why, even as efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
continue, communities must prepare for the impacts of climate change that can no longer be
avoided.” (page 1)
“….carbon pollution has been building in our atmosphere for decades, so even as we act to
reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases that drive climate change, we must also prepare our
communities for the impacts that can no longer be avoided. Anticipating and planning for these
impacts now can reduce the harm and long-term costs of climate change to communities.
Decisions made today about where and how communities grow, the infrastructure they build, and
the codes and standards they adopt will affect them long into the future, so decision-makers must
take climate change into account as they plan.” (page 4)
Following submittal of the recommendations to the President, Task Force members share a commitment to
continue collaborating with the Administration as these recommendations are implemented. In Fort Collins,
several related actions are in progress or planned. These include:
Completing Fort Collins’ participation in the Colorado Local Resilience Project. This is a project of the Colorado
Climate Network and the Colorado Municipal League involving 39 jurisdictions with close to 100 representatives
to help improve the resilience of Colorado local governments and local resources to possible climate change
impacts. Mayor Weitkunat and City staff have representation on the five working groups that include: (1) cross-
cutting issues, (2) wildfire response and recovery, (3) infrastructure, (4) natural resources and outdoor recreation,
and (5) public health. A final report is anticipated in early 2015. See
<http://coclimatenetwork.org/programs/index.html> for more information.
Continued coordination with the Climate Hub and other locally based national and international experts on climate
change impacts and adaptation.
Update of the Climate Action Plan as a means of maximizing opportunities to take actions that have dual-benefits
of increasing community resilience and reducing greenhouse gas emissions
Completing a Climate Adaptation Plan for the municipal organization, a project funded for 2015 in the recently
adopted City budget.
Seeking grant opportunities to fund planning, programs or infrastructure to improve Fort Collins resiliency against
a changing climate
Continued and expanded implementation of City programs to increase community preparedness including
awareness-raising about opportunities to make the home a “safe haven” in times of emergency through the
Healthy Sustainable Homes Program, and promoting the “Climate Economy” to aid local businesses in adapting
to climate change in place and leverage community carbon reduction goals to develop new products and
services, through the Economic Health Strategic Plan.
IX. Next Steps
CAC help frame scenarios of interest (December)
Public engagement on strategy concepts (November and December)
Refinement of CAP model assumptions
Platte River modeling for Fort Collins scenarios incorporated into CAP model (December)
CAC discuss scenarios (mid-December)
December 9, 2014 Page 8
Triple Bottom Line assessment of scenarios (December and January)
CAC develops recommendation (January)
Coordination with revisions to the Energy Policy recommendations from the Energy Board (January and
February)
Public engagement (January and February)
Council Dates:
January 13, 2015 - work session on CAP scenarios and Triple Bottom Line Assessment
February 17, 2015 - Council consideration of updated CAP
ATTACHMENTS
1. Preliminary CAP Model Outputs (PDF)
2. Platte River System IRP Modeling Update (PDF)
3. CAP Strategy Descriptions (PDF)
4. Public Engagement Details (PDF)
5. Guiding Principles for CAP Financing (PDF)
6. Powerpoint presentation (PDF)
1
Preliminary CAP Model Outputs
Figure 1 and Table 1 below illustrate the first CAP model run that is based on a suite of strategies largely
informed by the RMI best practice research, and slightly modified by subsequent conversation with staff
and others. There are a number of elements and assumptions that are still undergoing refinement, so this
should not be viewed as a scenario or a recommendation.
Figure 1. Preliminary Run - Emission Reduction by Strategy
ATTACHMENT 1
2
Table 1. Preliminary Run - Percent Emissions Reduction, by Strategy
EMISSIONS REDUCTION by STRATEGY (% of Total) 2020 2030 2040 2050
Green Building for New Construction and
Redevelopment
10% 7% 5% 4%
Shift Land Use Patterns to Shorten Trips and Reduce
Demand for Travel
7% 4% 3% 3%
Increase Energy Efficiency in the Residential Sector 15% 9% 9% 9%
Increase Energy Efficiency in the Institutional,
Commercial, and Industrial Sectors
41% 18% 14% 12%
Drive Adoption of Multimodal Transport 2% 3% 2% 2%
Accelerate Adoption of Fuel Efficient and Electric
Vehicles
2% 4% 7% 8%
Advance Renewable Energy at the Utility Scale 0% 38% 40% 37%
Advance Residential and Commercial Solar
Adoption
9% 5% 3% 2%
Shift Heating Loads – Electrification, Combined Heat
and Power, and Biofuels
-3% 5% 11% 15%
Road to Zero Waste 16% 8% 7% 7%
Figure 2. Preliminary Run - Emission Reduction by Emissions Source
3
Table 2 below provides a snapshot of the decadal impacts of the overall CAP strategies including: annual
and cumulative emissions reduction, resulting net annual emissions, and the resulting net cumulative cost
or savings based on an assumed potential impact to electricity rates. This financial analysis assumes a
discount rate of 2.5 percent applied to all cost savings and also incorporates an assumed carbon tax for
electricity, natural gas, and transportation fuels.
Table 2. Preliminary Run – Decadal Summaries
2020 2030 2040 2050
Emissions Reduction (MT CO2e)
Cumulative 1,000,000 11,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000
Annual 300,000 1,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000
Net Annual Emissions
MT CO2e 2,000,000 700,000 300,000 70,000
% below 2005 baseline 20% 70% 90% 100%
Discounted Net Cumulative
Cost/Savings
Total (Cost) or Savings - $M ($200) $600 $3,000 $8,000
Average Monthly (Cost) or Savings
per Fort Collins Resident ($ per person
per month)
($20) $20 $70 $100
Changing factors such as the electric rate increase, removing the cost of carbon, or changing the
discount rate would change the estimates of net cost/savings and could shift the net savings to net costs.
CAP MODEL AREAS FOR REFINEMENT OR DECISIONS TO CREATE SCENARIOS
Like any model, the CAP model functions by performing calculations on assumptions about GHG impacts
of reduction strategies and the associated costs. There are a few components of the CAP model input
assumptions that are either not available now or are undergoing refinement. It is therefore important not
to view the preliminary model run as a complete or recommended “Scenario”.
Additional work is still needed in these areas:’
Cost estimates. Preliminary cost estimates have been provided for all the strategies, but they are
undergoing review and refinement. Costs are highly depended on business models. Finding new
business models that can lower first cost barriers will be critical to successful aggressive climate
action.
Electric supply modeling results. Currently, placeholder assumptions have been incorporated to
estimate the impacts of PRPA meeting the City’s emissions reduction targets. Actual results from the
Platte River modeling will be available in mid December. These results include changes to the
electricity emission factor and wholesale electric rates that result from changes in generation source
mix. Additional analyses will be conducted by the Fort Collins Utilities to translate the wholesale rate
impacts into retail rate impact, by user class. The retail rate impact analysis should be available by
late December, prior to the January 13 Council work session.
Further evaluation of who pays and who saves. Currently the CAP model shows the majority of
the costs and savings are being borne by the end users, Fort Collins residents and businesses. As
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future scenarios are developed and the preferred scenario is crafted, more refined evaluation of
alternative business models that engage external financing will be evaluated.
In addition to the model inputs and assumptions that are still evolving, there are other model input
assumptions that involve a clear choice. These include:
Selection of a discount rate to determine costs and savings. The first model run applies a 2.5%
discount rate to savings. (See http://fds.duke.edu/db/attachment/727 for a reference.) Discount rate is
defined as the rate used to calculate the present value of cash flows.
Inclusion or exclusion of elements of the GHG inventory. In 2009, Fort Collins decided to add
“airline travel” as a Scope 3 element of its community GHG inventory because emissions from air
travel have a large impact on climate change. While some communities include airline travel (i.e.
Austin, Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia) most do not.
Modification to the population growth rate assumptions
Inclusion or exclusion of a “Cost of Carbon”
The CAC will have an opportunity to weigh in on these elements when developing recommendations.
Platte River System IRP Modeling Update
12/2/14
1
ATTACHMENT 2
2
Renewables
20% x 2020
Competitive
Rates
Minimum Reserve
Margin
15%
CO2 Reduction
• 20% x 2020
• 35% x 2030
• 80% x 2050
System Level Portfolio Planning Guidelines
Strong
competition
Modeled as a tax on CO2
emissions
Forecast at $11-$76 per ton
Planning Scenarios
3
HS RS AS-1 AS-2 to
AS-n
Historical
(validation)
Reference
(baseline)
Alternatives
(optimization / decision support)
Common Assumptions:
• 40-yr term starting in 2015
• 2015 official load forecast
• CO2 and non- CO2 expense scenarios
4
RS Load Forecast
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
MW
Actual 2015 Load Forecast 2014 Load Forecast
Slowing Municipal load growth:
• 2011 forecast for 2020 – 775 MW
• 2015 forecast for 2020 – 690 MW
(85 MW or 11% reduction)
RS Actions
5
GUIDELINE ACTIONS STUDIED (RS)
15% minimum reserve
margin
2015 to 2030: No new resources
2030 to 2050: 851 MW of total new natural gas-fired capacity
added (combined cycle and peaking) to offset coal
retirements and meet load growth
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
MWh
RS Energy Mix
Coal
Gas
Wind
Purchases
Hydro
6
• Coal dominates Platte River’s energy mix through 2042
• Gas replaces coal generation after normal coal retirement dates
Planning focus
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
RS No CO2
• RS CO2 levels increase slightly with no CO2 charges
• System modeling includes all surplus sales
• Fort Collins accounting currently does not include surplus sales
RS CO2 Profile
Tons
2020 CO2
Guideline = 2.8 M tons
2030 CO2
Guideline = 2.2 M tons
2050 CO2
Guideline= 0.7 M tons
7
AS-1 Actions to Meet Study Guidelines
8
GUIDELINE ACTIONS STUDIED (AS-1)
20% renewable supply
(municipal retail sales)
• 100 MW new solar + 65 MW new wind
(70 MW new solar above 2016 Rawhide solar project)
20% CO2 reduction
-2020-
• Retire both Craig coal units (154 MW)
• Reduce surplus sales
• 40 MW additional solar + 35 MW additional wind
35% CO2 reduction
-2030-
• Reduce Rawhide energy generation (maintain capacity)
• Add new combined cycle gas generation (300 MW)
• 340 MW additional solar
80% CO2 reduction
-2050-
• Retire 280 MW Rawhide coal unit
• Add new peaking gas generation (230 MW)
• 40 MW additional solar + 1,075 MW additional wind
AS-1 Energy Mix
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
MWh
Coal
Gas
Wind
Purchases
Hydro
Solar
• Coal generation reduced to decrease CO2 – but remains part of the
resource mix until 2046
• Solar and wind become significant sources over time
Platte River’s energy mix becomes more-diversified
9
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
AS-1 CO2
Profile
Tons AS-1 meets CO2 guidelines at each planning interval
2020 CO2
Guideline = 2.8 M tons
2030 CO2
Guideline = 2.2 M tons
2050 CO2
Guideline= 0.7 M tons
10
-
50
100
150
200
250
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
$/MWh
Rate Projections: RS – with and without CO2 expense
Vs. 2015 Rate 2020 2030 2040 2050
RS no CO2 4% 11% 52% 207%
RS CO2 19% 65% 142% 254%
11
• Identical resource portfolios (both RS)
• The difference between the projections is the
impact of CO2 expense
RS CO2
RS No CO2
-
50
100
150
200
250
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
$/MWh
Rate Projections: RS vs. AS-1 (with CO2 expense)
12
AS-1 CO2
With emissions expenses, the difference in rates
between the AS-1 and RS portfolios is relatively small
Optimization should improve this
Vs. 2015 Rate 2020 2030 2040 2050
RS CO2 19% 65% 142% 254%
AS1 CO2 32% 74% 133% 304%
RS CO2
-
50
100
150
200
250
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
$/MWh
Rate Projections: RS vs. AS-1 (no CO2 expense)
13
The difference between AS-1 and RS is the rate
impact of diversification without CO2 expense
Vs. 2015 Rate 2020 2030 2040 2050
RS no CO2 4% 11% 52% 207%
AS1 no CO2 17% 41% 80% 287%
RS No CO2
AS-1 No CO2
• Building confidence in modeling capabilities – some uncertainties:
– Renewable energy integration at high levels – sub-hourly considerations
– EPA final rule – possibly implemented June 2015
• Credible options exist to meet 2020 strategic planning guidelines:
– 20% retail renewable energy + 20% reduction in CO2 emissions
– Mature / reliable technologies available for application
– Need to further consider rate implications
• Meeting 2030 EPA proposal more challenging – appears possible
• Options / analysis beyond 20 years – unclear / low confidence:
– Renewable integration at high levels / system reliability considerations
– Evolving technologies need to mature
– More / potentially better options in the future
– Analysis is focused on 20-year resource decision horizon
14
Summary – System Level Planning
• Neither RS nor AS-1 is optimal – just beginning scenario analysis
• CO2 expense is the greatest cost factor for Reference Case
• Other factors need to be considered – significant & complex:
– Fuel price volatility, market dynamics, regulations, transmission, plant operations
• Cost of diversification using AS-1 roughly equals CO2 cost
• Other benefits possible through resource diversification:
– Fuel flexibility
– Price certainty (fixed price renewable supply contracts)
– Operational flexibility (renewable source integration)
– Real reduction of CO2
– Support preferences of owner Municipalities
15
Summary – System Level Planning
• Develop additional alternative scenarios and optimize:
– Staging of renewable resource additions
– Integration of smaller / more flexible gas resources (utility scale)
– Additional Craig operational scenarios
– Increased energy efficiency and distributed generation
– Integrate new EPA CO2 rule (once finalized)
• Complete a new system level Integrated Resource Plan:
– Much more analysis required
– Stakeholder engagement
– Platte River Board decision expected during 2015
• Continue evaluating / recommending new resource options:
– Rawhide Solar expected in 2016 (30 MW)
– Joint Demand Response efforts
– Combined Heat and Power evaluations
16
Next Steps – System Level Planning
• Perform modeling of more aggressive CO2 reduction scenarios:
– Based on IGA with Fort Collins for CAP support
– 80% CO2 reduction by 2030
– Evaluate costs / rates & other considerations
– Analysis detail / confidence limited due to current CAP schedule (Feb 2015)
• Support stakeholder engagement related to electric resource planning
17
Next Steps – Fort Collins Support
1
Strategy Descriptions
Draft December 2, 2014
The following provides draft write-ups for each of the strategies included in the Fort Collins Climate
Action Plan (CAP). These descriptions are still in draft form and are intended to provide a general
description of each strategy but the details will be revised in future iterations. There are also
placeholders for sections that have not yet been developed.
OBJECTIVE. CURB FUTURE EMISSIONS GROWTH
Strategy 1: Green Building for New Construction and Redevelopment
Strategy 2: Shift Land Use Patterns to Shorten Trips and Reduce Demand for Travel
OBJECTIVE. REDUCE ENERGY USE IN EXISTING BUILDINGS
Strategy 3: Increase Energy Efficiency in the Residential Sector
Strategy 4: Increase Energy Efficiency in the Institutional, Commercial, and Industrial Sectors
OBJECTIVE. REDUCE TRANSPORTATION DEMAND AND USE MORE FUEL EFFICIENT AND
ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Strategy 5: Drive Adoption of Multimodal Transport
Strategy 6: Accelerate Adoption of Fuel Efficient and Electric Vehicles
OBJECTIVE. INCREASE SUPPLY OF RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR ELECTRIC AND THERMAL LOADS
Strategy 7: Advance Renewable Energy at the Utility Scale
Strategy 8: Advance Residential and Commercial Solar Adoption
Strategy 9: Shift Heating Loads – Combined Heat and Power, Biofuels and Electrification
OBJECTIVE. REDUCE EMISSIONS FROM WASTE
Strategy 10: Road to Zero Waste
OBJECTIVE. INSPIRE, ACCELERATE, MOBILIZE, PREPARE
Strategy 11: Encourage Eco-Districts/Catalyst Zones
Strategy 12: Implement Sequestration/Adaptation
Strategy 13: Develop Communications Campaign/Social Mobilization
ATTACHMENT 3
2
Objective. Curb Future Emissions Growth
Strategy 1: Green Building for New Construction and Redevelopment
This strategy curbs growth in GHG emissions associated with new buildings and major redevelopments
by ensuring new construction incorporates green building practices, such as building energy efficiency,
photovoltaics, fuel switching from gas to electric and demand response tactics.
Tactics
Tactics to implement this strategy would build on the City’s longstanding efforts in green building where
the approach is to continually raise the bar for high performing buildings through building code changes
over time while supporting and rewarding beyond-compliance efforts. The following summarizes various
programmatic, regulatory, and other tactics that are being considered as part of this strategy.
Energy efficiency for new construction
Establishing more stringent building codes for new residential and commercial buildings (30
percent beyond the energy efficiency requirement of the 2012 International Energy
Conservation Code, with ongoing code updates every few years)
Providing education about how to comply with new building codes
Ensuring verification of energy performance
Enforcing code compliance
Providing incentives for performing above minimum levels
Solar PV for new construction
Requiring for all new commercial and residential buildings to include solar PV systems (rooftop
or ground-mounted) capable of meeting at least 100% of a building’s estimated load on an
annual basis
Allowing buildings that consume more energy than can be produced onsite to participate in
community solar
Fuel switching for new construction
Providing utility programs to encourage fuel switching for new construction and major
renovations/replacements
Adopting standards/codes that preference electric space heating and electric loads (versus
natural gas) or require certain percentage of new building thermal energy load to be sourced
from renewable sources
Incorporating district heating/cooling in new residential developments using geothermal heat
pumps
Leveraging the homebuilder network to promote and build all-electric new homes
Demand response for new residential construction
Incorporating demand response capabilities into all new residential construction (e.g., demand
response capable appliances and home energy management systems)
Roles and Responsibilities
Role of the City
The City of Fort Collins would lead implementation of this strategy by adopting more stringent green
building codes and development standards. The City would encourage participation from builders,
contractors, and homeowners through educational and training programs, and by offering incentives for
3
exceptional energy efficiency performance. In addition, the City would be responsible for ongoing code
compliance and verification enforcement activities.
Role of the Private Sector
The private sector, including builders, contractors, and developers, would support implementation of
this strategy by adhering to updated building and development codes, and by participating in training
and incentive programs as applicable.
Role of Residents and Businesses
Residents and businesses would be responsible for ensuring that all new construction or major
renovations to their homes/businesses conform to applicable permitting and code requirements. They
would also participate in City incentive and educational programs as applicable.
Adaptation Impact
Co-Benefits
Supporting City Policies
4
Strategy 2: Shift Land Use Patterns to Shorten Trips and Reduce Demand for Travel
This strategy curbs growth in GHG emissions associated with transportation by employing land use
changes that shorten trips and reduce the demand for travel.
Tactics
Tactics to achieve this strategy include creating development patterns that encourage smart growth,
support infill/redevelopment and facilitate the use of alternative transportation options such as
bicycling, transit, and walking. These tactics could build on existing land use and transportation
approaches identified in Plan Fort Collins and the Transportation Master Plan such as targeted
redevelopment areas and enhanced travel corridors. Potential tactics to shift land use patterns to
shorten trips and reduce demand for travel include the following:
Reducing or eliminating minimum parking requirements for all Fort Collins development to
support higher land use intensity
Retrofitting, charging for, and reducing on-street parking by installing parking meters, district
permitting, and “smart parking” initiatives (e.g., responsive pricing, mobile parking payments,
and meter-based parking sensors)
Pursuing a “complete streets” approach for new road construction
Encouraging mixed-use development patterns that reduce vehicle trips to daily destinations and
amenities
Roles and Responsibilities
Role of the City
The City of Fort Collins would support implementation of this strategy by adopting revised codes and
policies related to parking, and by continuing to encourage mixed-use development and complete
streets. The City would also be responsible for implementing parking management strategies, such as
parking meters, district permitting, and enforcement.
Role of the Private Sector
Private sector developers would support implementation of this strategy by adhering to development
codes, and by coordinating with the City, tenants, neighbors, and other stakeholders on parking
management strategies, development planning and patterns, and land use mix.
Role of Residents and Businesses
Residents and businesses would bear the responsibility of actually reducing their vehicle trips to support
ongoing implementation this strategy. They would need to coordinate with the City, employees, and
neighbors on parking strategies and policies, as well as engage in walking and bicycling to nearby
destinations.
Adaptation Impact
Co-Benefits
Supporting City Policies
5
Objective. Reduce Energy Use in Existing Buildings
Strategy 3: Increase Energy Efficiency in the Residential Sector
This strategy employs a two-pronged approach to reducing energy use in homes – retrofitting homes to
be more energy efficient and behavior change programs and tactics to help residents live more
efficiently within their homes.
Tactics
The strategy leverages Fort Collins Utilities’ residential demand-side management programs and
recently implemented Advanced Meters with emerging business models and policy tools for
accelerating home energy upgrades and consumer behavior programs at scale. Specific tactics being
considered to increase energy efficiency in the residential sector include the following:
Energy efficiency for existing residential
Implementing a rental licensing program, which would require landlords to make energy
efficiency improvements (or demonstrate compliance) every time they renew their rental
license
Developing and providing a new utility business model where a basic standard package of
energy efficiency and photovoltaic offerings is extended to all customers and measures are paid
back on the customers’ utility bills
Addressing barriers for condominium energy-efficiency improvements (e.g. access to credit)
Engaging in a residential public awareness and educational campaign focused on what residents
can do to support achievement of the 80% GHG reduction goal by 2030
Increasing access to energy efficiency loans and funding by integrating options into wellness
programs offered by employers to their employees
Demand Response for existing residential
Converting residential customers to demand instructive utility rate structures
Developing and providing a new utility business model that provides on-bill financing for
residential energy improvements, which would also include Demand Response technology
Roles and Responsibilities
Role of the City
The City of Fort Collins would support implementation of this strategy by launching and maintaining a
rental licensing program, and offering a new utility business model that increases customer participation
in energy efficiency, photovoltaic offerings, and Demand Response technologies. The City would also
explore opportunities to address barriers for condominium energy efficiency improvements and to
integrate energy efficiency loans and funding in to City and other employee wellness or benefit
programs. Educational campaigns about the community’s GHG reduction goals, as well as information
dissemination about utility rates and utility service models would also be led the City.
Role of the Private Sector
Contractors, property management companies, landlords and other private sector parties would
support implementation of this strategy by participating in rental licensing program and energy
efficiency upgrade requirements. Some could also participate in the Integrated Utility Services program
6
as installers or integrators working on behalf of the utility to enhance energy efficiency in residences or
businesses.
Role of Residents and Businesses
Residents and businesses would bear the responsibility of actually reducing their vehicle trips to support
ongoing implementation this strategy. They would need to coordinate with the City, employees, and
neighbors on parking strategies and policies, as well as engage in walking and bicycling to nearby
destinations.
Adaptation Impact
Co-Benefits
Supporting City Policies
7
Strategy 4: Increase Energy Efficiency in the Institutional, Commercial, and Industrial
Sectors
This strategy targets energy use reduction in existing commercial, institutional, and industrial buildings
and processes.
Tactics
Similar to residential efficiency, this strategy leverages Fort Collins’ Utilities demand-side management
programs to implement efficiency retrofits at scale across various business sectors through a range of
policy mechanisms, innovative business models, and targeted programs focused on the highest
industrial users and largest commercial property portfolio owners. Specific tactics being considered to
increase energy efficiency in non-residential sectors include the following:
Energy efficiency for existing commercial
Requiring annual reporting of energy use by large public, commercial and multi-family
properties, and public disclosure of results
Calling for energy improvement measures for buildings above an established Energy Use
Intensity (EUI) standard and have not taken action to reduce intensity over time
Requiring certification of building operators who manage base building systems and providing
training and resources for certification
Requiring retro-commissioning once every 10 years to optimize base building systems
Requiring upgrades of lighting fixtures in non-residential spaces, including the common areas of
multi-family properties
Calling for energy audits for commercial and multi-family properties by a licensed professional
once every 10 years
Instituting submetering and requiring proportionate billing for office tenants of at least 5,000
square feet in size, and retail tenants at least 1,000 square feet
Reducing municipal government building energy use by 31 percent by 2030 and providing
annual tracking and disclosure
Developing and implementing a new utility business model where the utility facilitates deep
energy retrofits and the customer can finance projects through on-bill tariffs or other new
innovative structures (e.g., Metered Energy Efficiency Transaction Structure (MEETS), or
Commercial Property Assessed Clean Energy Financing (PACE))
Enacting a public awareness and educational campaign focused on what businesses can do to
support achievement of the 80% GHG reduction goal by 2030
Identifying and targeting the top energy consuming commercial portfolio owners and incentives
to make deep energy retrofits
Working with Fort Collins’ 15 largest industrial facilities to engineer deep process energy
efficiency retrofits
Demand Response for existing commercial and industrial
Developing and implementing a new utility business model that provides on-bill financing for
commercial energy improvements, which would also include Demand Response technology
Aggregating small commercial clients by a single building management operator to assist with
meeting Demand Response needs and to support routine auditing
Moving commercial customers into a demand instructive rate or participation in other demand
response programs
8
Continuing designated account representatives for large customers, and required forward
scheduling reporting to inform usage forecasting and planning
Roles and Responsibilities
Role of the City
The City of Fort Collins would drive implementation of this strategy by adopting codes, standards and
policies regarding annual reporting, energy improvement measures, certification of building operators,
retro-commissioning, lighting upgrades, and energy audits. In addition, the City would need to lead the
implementation of submetering, offering a new Integrated Utility Services (IUS) business model,
aggregating small commercial clients, working with large commercial and industrial energy users, and
leading by example in City facilities. The City would also be responsible for leading educational
campaigns focused on achievement of the community’s GHG reduction goals, informing customers
about new rate structures, and other IUS and Demand Response opportunities.
Role of Businesses and the Private Sector
Private-sector businesses would be responsible for participating in the IUS program, making appropriate
upgrades and improvements, and ensuring ongoing monitoring, re-commissioning, and certification of
building managers. They would also need to engage employees and customers in the business energy
efficiency efforts.
Adaptation Impact
Co-Benefits
Supporting City Policies
9
Objective. Reduce Transportation Demand and Use More Fuel Efficient
and Electric Vehicles
Strategy 5: Drive Adoption of Multimodal Transport
This strategy involves developing approaches to reduce the demand for and use of personal vehicles and
increase the use of alternative modes, including transit, biking, carpooling, and walking.
Tactics
Tactics to achieve this strategy could involve price signals that encourage alternative modes, managing
traffic, creating a transport network that is safer, more coordinated, and easier to use, and then offering
drivers information and resources that encourage them to use the network. They would also include
working with employers in reducing commute trip miles by employees. Specific tactics being considered
to drive adoption of multimodal transport include the following:
Move to a more multimodal transportation system
Offering status and real-time transit and other transportation data to third party developers
through an open data platform to support development of web-based or mobile transit apps
Facilitating or support the growth of car share or ride share programs
Continuing to implement and expand bike-share programs
Coordinating and expanding regional mass transportation options for commuters
Campaigning to increase awareness of how transportation costs factor into the total cost of
living (e.g., Housing and Transportation Affordability Index)
Developing corporate engagement and incentive programs to provide public transit access and
encourage employee bicycling and walking to reduce vehicle miles traveled from commuting
Roles and Responsibilities
Role of the City
The City of Fort Collins would support implementation of this strategy by offering transportation data to
third-party developer, and continuing to support bike-share programs, car/ride-share programs. The City
would need to coordinate and increase efforts to expand regional mass-transportation options for
commuters, and would be a partner in an educational campaign around housing and transportation
costs. The City would also need to lead or participate in corporate engagement or inventive programs
focused on reducing employee VMT from commuting.
Role of the Private Sector
The private sector could support implementation of this strategy by developing applications to connect
users to real-time transportation data and information, and by introducing new car or ride sharing
programs in the community. Moreover, lenders, homebuilders, and employers could participate in a
campaign focused on housing and transportation costs.
10
Role of Residents and Businesses
Residents and businesses would implement this strategy by participating in multi-modal transportation
options such as regional mass transit, car or ride-share programs, or bicycling. Businesses could support
the transportation choices made by employees by offering incentives or programs focused on reducing
commuting VMT, and by locating in areas that have an adequate supply of housing to meet employees’
needs.
Adaptation Impact
Co-Benefits
Supporting City Policies
11
Strategy 6: Accelerate Adoption of Fuel Efficient and Electric Vehicles
To accelerate the number of fuel efficient and electric vehicles on the roads, this strategy focuses on
increasing consumer awareness and expanding infrastructure to support fuel efficient and electric
personal vehicles. Additionally, this strategy targets municipal and commercial fleets, including school
districts, and focuses on improving efficiency, reducing demand, and shifting to alternative fuel or
electric vehicles where possible.
Tactics
Personal Vehicles
This strategy could be achieved through large dealer purchases that meet efficiency or electric vehicle
standards so that individuals have these types of vehicles as a local choice. It could also involve
educating potential buyers about rebates and incentives available, as well as tax credits that will offset
the initial purchase price. Additionally, will be important to make electric vehicle charging stations more
numerous and accessible to more users. The following tactics are being considered in order to
accelerate the adoption of fuel efficient and electric personal vehicles:
Developing and implementing a campaign to increase exposure of consumers to electric vehicles
Ensuring that electric vehicle charging stations are available, including public charging stations in
highly visible, frequently-visited locations, as well as at workplaces and residences
Providing incentives that benefit users and purchasers of alternative-fuel vehicles
Aggregating and incentivizing bulk purchasing of electric vehicles for fleet, car-sharing, or
individual use
Working with local automobile dealerships to stock electric vehicles, and provide training and
incentives for EV sales
Providing time-of-use pricing and utility programs to incentivize EV charging during off-peak
hours
Providing a central market to buy and sell used EV batteries
Integrating personal vehicle use into transportation apps so that owners can evaluate the true
costs of driving alongside other transportation options, understand their energy use, carbon
footprint, and travel behavior, and can easily adapt to the process of finding and paying for EV
charging
Commercial Fleets
Tactics to implement this strategy could include encouraging the use of trip planning software that
optimizes and combines routes and no idling policies. They could also include offering education and
incentives for retrofitting to more efficient fuel systems or purchasing alternative fuel or electric fleet
vehicles at time of replacement. Tactics being considered to encourage efficiency, demand reduction,
and electrification of commercial fleets include the following:
Encouraging the electrification of commercial fleets and point to point mobility service providers
(e.g., airport shuttles)
Encouraging the potential mild-hybridization of special-use vehicles (e.g., fire trucks, police
cruisers) to reduce idling emissions
Implementing corporate engagement and incentive programs to provide public transit access
and encourage employee bicycling and walking to reduce vehicle miles traveled from
commuting
12
Roles and Responsibilities
Role of the City
The City of Fort Collins would encourage implementation of this strategy by exposing customers to
electric vehicles, and by ensuring the installation and accessibility of EV charging stations in public
spaces. The City could also facilitate a battery market or exchange, and provide time-of-use pricing and
utility programs to promote off-peak charging. In addition, the City could offer other incentives or
programs to encourage individual or fleet purchases of electric vehicles, and could provide open data to
support transportation application development.
Role of the Private Sector
Role of Residents and Businesses
Adaptation Impact
Co-Benefits
Supporting City Policies
13
Objective. Increase Supply of Renewable Energy for Electric and
Thermal Loads
Strategy 7: Advance Renewable Energy at the Utility Scale
This strategy looks at what’s possible if Platte River Power Authority were to provide electric power that
exceeds the carbon reduction goals within its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) in order for Fort Collins to
achieve its more aggressive carbon reduction goals. Modeling for the IRP is under development and
shown in the adjusted business as usual emissions forecast.
Tactics
This strategy would focus specifically on tactics required to increase large scale renewables to the level
needed to meet the City’s goals. This strategy will require close coordination with Platte River Power
Authority through finalization of its IRP.
Roles and Responsibilities
Role of the City
Role of the Private Sector
Role of Residents and Businesses
Adaptation Impact
Co-Benefits
Supporting City Policies
14
Strategy 8: Advance Residential and Commercial Solar Adoption
This strategy focuses on increasing the total volume of solar installations for both commercial customers
and in homes. Because there are many customers who would like the opportunity for renewables that
do not have their own home or business or proper orientation and exposure, this strategy also advances
the potential for these customers to adopt and solar energy through community-scale solar installations.
Tactics
Tactics to achieve this strategy could involve targeting key commercial customers, developing policies
that encourage solar in homes, developing outreach materials that identify resources and incentives for
solar, educating the community about on-bill financing, power purchase agreement options, and
existing rebates. Additionally, tactics will likely need to address barriers to participation or installation,
such as slow permitting processes, high costs, and lack of solar installers to meet demand. The following
tactics are being considered to help advance residential and commercial solar adoption:
Utility-owned, locally sited solar
Offering a PRPA-owned, community-sited ground mount program that would include a block
schedule for rates where the first tier would consist of solar
Offering a PRPA-owned, rooftop PV installed “in-front of the meter” (wherein the Utility
purchases a portfolio of distributed systems to be located on commercial or residential rooftops
and participants receive compensation for use of their rooftop) or “behind the meter” (wherein
the Utility has complete control over the resource)
Developing a centralized community solar resource (facilitated by PRPA) in which residential and
commercial customers could participate and purchase solar power blocks with locked-in rates
for a defined period of time
Solar for existing commercial
Developing and implementing an Integrated Utility Services (IUS) program wherein the utility
facilitates solar purchases, and consumers can finance PV projects in a number of ways
Identifying and targeting of the top electricity consuming commercial accounts and incenting
them to install PV systems that meet 100 percent of their electricity demand
Aggregating demand amongst small and medium sized commercial users and connecting them
to developers and PV projects
Using PACE to finance solar PV installations for small and medium-sized businesses
Using commercial crowdsourcing to raise capital for potential community solar projects
Solar for existing residential
Developing and implementing a new utility business model where a basic package of bundled
energy efficiency and solar offerings are extended to all customers in order to overcome upfront
capital cost barriers, and the measures are paid back through the customer’s utility bill
Offering programs to engage and inform customers and expand pricing transparency and
competitiveness about solar PV installations
Offering in-store solar sales and customer interaction in large big box stores (e.g., Lowes, Home
Depot).
Launching and Green neighborhood and EcoDistrict initiatives
15
Roles and Responsibilities
Role of the City
Role of the Private Sector
Role of Residents and Businesses
Adaptation Impact
Co-Benefits
Supporting City Policies
16
Strategy 9: Shift Heating Loads – Combined Heat and Power, Biofuels and Electrification
This strategy encourages customers to switch away from natural gas for heating their buildings to
alternatives such as geothermal, combined heat and power, biofuels, or electrification (when the
electricity is supplied by fossil free sources such as solar, wind, etc.).
Tactics
The best time to take on fuel switching is during new construction or during major renovations or
equipment replacements. Tactics to shift heading loads could include the following:
Developing utility programs that encourage all-electric or fuel switching for renovations and
replacements in existing homes and businesses
Adopting standards and/or codes for major renovations that preference electric space heating
and electric loads (versus natural gas loads)
Adopting standards and/or codes for major renovations that require a certain percentage of
new thermal energy load to be sourced from renewable sources
Roles and Responsibilities
Role of the City
Role of the Private Sector
Role of Residents and Businesses
Adaptation Impact
Co-Benefits
Supporting City Policies
17
Objective. Reduce Emissions from Waste
Strategy 10: Road to Zero Waste
To reduce GHG emissions from waste, this strategy includes leveraging the City’s Waste Reduction and
Recycling Plan: On the Road to Zero Waste, which has a goal of zero waste by 2030.
Tactics
This strategy would include tactics and programs implemented by both the City as well as private sector
waste management businesses. The following summarizes programs for each that are being considered
as part of this strategy.
City Programs:
Apply community-based social marketing and other outreach/education
Funding support for a Resource Recovery Park
Add yard trimmings collection for single-family residents
Provide recycling to all multi-family residents and businesses
Universal Building code amendments for Construction waste
Operate a Re-use warehouse
Pursue alternatives through regional Zero Waste Plan
Private Sector:
Help develop mixed C&D sorting facility in region
Help develop food scraps composting and digestion facilities
Help develop glass sorting facility in region
Roles and Responsibilities
Role of the City
The City would have a significant role in implementing various programs to increase diversion from the
landfill and decrease overall waste generation within the community. The current Road to Zero Waste
outlines specific tactics towards this goal of net zero. There is a 37 percent gap in total reductions
required to achieve net zero that would be achieved through additional programs yet to be identified.
Role of the Private Sector
Beyond programs implemented by the City, private sector waste management companies would have a
role in implementing some of the strategy tactics, as outlined above. Role of Residents and Businesses
Fort Collins residents and businesses would be the beneficiaries of the programs provided by the City
and private businesses. To receive the services provided, residents and businesses would incur a $0.65
monthly fee for City programs. Additionally, to cover the costs for the new facilities that would be
developed by the private sector, residents and businesses would be charged an additional fee of $5.15
per month.
18
To cover these costs, residents and businesses would realize the savings from reduced costs to send
material to the landfill. An assumption of increased costs to the landfill for consumers from $162/ton to
$450/ton between now and 2030 has been assumed.
Adaptation Impact
Co-Benefits
Supporting City Policies
19
Objective. Inspire, Accelerate, Mobilize, Prepare
Strategy 11: Encourage Eco-Districts/Catalyst Zones
Many cities are realizing the value of implementing climate strategies at the neighborhood scale in order
to holistically integrate changes in land use, buildings and transportation infrastructure with the
community development assets and social networks required to affect change. .
The purpose of an EcoDistrict is to provide a platform where citizens, institutions, and businesses
partner with municipal leaders and utility providers to co-develop innovative district scale projects that
meet ambitious sustainability objectives. The EcoDistrict framework includes principles involving
economic, social and environmental sustainability which aligns with the City’s “triple bottom line” and
community responsive approaches to decision making. The EcoDistrict performance requirements
establish specific goals and targets in the areas of equitable development, community identity, access
and mobility, energy and water efficiency, habitat and ecosystem function, materials management, and
health and wellbeing, which align with the City’s seven strategic planning outcome areas.
Tactics
The primary tactic to implement this strategy is coordination of key neighborhood stakeholders and
organizations, property developers, local institutions and businesses, the City, and utilities in the
development of district scale projects that realize substantial carbon benefits through the
implementation of EcoDistrict principles. The project should leverage advances made through Fort ZED
partnerships and explore development opportunities that foster innovation and integration of
sustainability strategies.
City Program and Initiatives:
Block 32
Sustainable Neighborhoods Program
ClimateWise
Georgetown University Energy Prize
Community Programs and Initiatives:
Fort ZED
Grant partnership with CSU
Green neighborhood initiatives for PV
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Roles and Responsibilities
Role of the City
Role of the Private Sector
Role of Residents and Businesses
Adaptation Impact
20
Strategy 12: Carbon Sequestration and Beneficial Use
This strategy aims to leverage carbon benefits which can be maximized through natural and biological
systems that incorporate carbon capture and sequestration or provide a beneficial re-use of carbon
emissions.
Tactics
The tactics for implementation of this strategy rely on holistic, systems approaches to land use, waste
handling, agroforestry and the built environment. These tactics require strong partnerships among
municipal, academic, business and community partners within Fort Collins and regionally. Specifically,
involvement of waste management businesses; local ranchers, farmers and feedlot operators; federal
and county land and resource managers; academic and research institutions; and the City will be
essential for successful implementation.
Preserve and Conserve Suitable Lands for Carbon Benefits:
Support and enhance initiatives through the Nature in the City project that establish baseline
data for land use categories and climate change indicator species and characteristics. Support
future initiatives to establish periodic data collection and land acquisitions that maximize carbon
sequestration opportunities.
Support and enhance Poudre River Restoration projects that include restoring natural
vegetation and riparian habitats along the river corridor that have the potential to maximize
carbon sequestration opportunities.
Support initiatives, in addition to Nature in the City and Poudre River Restoration which develop
and preserve open space including; grasslands, agricultural lands, wildlife habitat and corridors,
wetlands, watersheds, and groundwater recharge areas that remove and sequester carbon from
the atmosphere.
Support acquisition or protection of land for local agriculture and food production that results in
net carbon benefits through decreased transportation or production emissions
Support acquisition or protection of land for onsite generation of renewable energy
Soil Carbon Sequestration
Work with regional agricultural stakeholders to reduce loss of soil carbon from current
agricultural practices, and investigate new methods of soil carbon sequestration such as:
o conservation tillage practices that minimize soil disturbance, prevent loss of soil
structure, soil compaction, and erosion of nutrient-rich topsoil
o reduce pesticide use to prevent damage to soil microbial communities and the
breakdown of soil organic matter
o encourage use of organic fertilizers to improve soil structure and reduce indirect carbon
emissions and environmental impacts from the production and transport of inorganic
fertilizers
o planting year round cover crops to increase below-ground biomass, improve soil
structure, prevent soil erosion, reduce the use of pesticides, and increase soil fertility
o replacing crop residue burning with mulching to create more above and below-ground
biomass and reduce the erosive loss of valuable topsoil
Work with regional partners to understand the market dynamics and social science component
of the low adoption rates of no-till policies along the Front Range
21
Incentivize conversion to no-till techniques via programs such as the Natural Resource
Conservation Service’s Equip Program (to bridge temporary decreased yields of no-till
approaches)
Encourage grazing management best practices that increase forage productivity and quality to
reduce loss of carbon from soils
Encourage research and development on the use of bio-char to restore carbon capacity in areas
of degraded soil and deforested or burned areas
Promote practices that support healthy microbial communities to improve soil fertility,
structure, and formation especially where soils have been degraded.
Promote irrigation management best practices to reduce fertilizer and irrigation requirements,
improve soil fertility, and reduce the formation of saline- and sodic-impacted soils that can
reduce soil carbon storage
Promote and enhance rangeland , and forest management, re-forestation, and re-vegetation:
Support and enhance initiatives through the Forestry Department that implement baseline and
periodic forest resources inventory data collection, urban forest management programs, and
tree disease mitigation and restoration activities
Establish reforestation of compromised stands and burn areas within the Poudre River
watershed to improve soil carbon retention, increase tree canopy carbon sequestration,
minimize erosion impacts, and improve water quality (which results in a secondary carbon
benefit)
Support ruminant and manure management best practices that reduce methane production to
reduce source emissions. Some manure management methods can result in creation of soil
amendments beneficial to soil fertility and increased biomass production.
Engage municipal, academic, and federal agency partners in maximizing urban forestry
management for carbon benefits including supporting research on sequestration species
combinations within ground-cover, mid-story and canopy species that maximize carbon
sequestration within this region
Anticipate and plan for changes in tree canopy and shrub and grassland cover due to the
environmental effects of climate change
Restore vegetative communities and guilds on degraded rangelands
Convert reflective and impervious surfaces to vegetated areas with drought tolerant native
species, edible landscaping, or trees to increase above and below ground biomass and increase
carbon benefits
Promote innovative waste optimization efforts:
Support the goals of the Road to Zero Waste plan by investigating waste stream flows and
energy related opportunities that result in a net carbon benefit
Catalyze regional opportunities for implementing a full-cycle waste optimization scheme that
includes 1) composting of yard, food, and agricultural vegetative waste 2) anaerobic digestion of
agricultural plant-based wastes and manure 3) distribution and use of soil supplement products
from compost and digestion operations, and 4) capture and use of produced methane gas from
compost and digestion operations
o Nurture regional partnerships with farmers and ranchers to capture agricultural solid
organic wastes
22
o Create organic waste collection programs for ranchers, feedlot operator, crop producers
and local dairies
o Launch distribution program of fully decomposed municipal compost to commercial
customers and local food producers to stimulate compost market economics
Investigate bio-char and biogas co-production technologies from corn stover, beetle pine kill and
cleared ash woods (assuming future Emerald Ash Bore losses) via fast pyrolysis techniques
Encourage and incentivize the use of garbage disposal appliances for residential and commercial
use to increase food waste diversion to municipal wastewater digestion facilities
Re-route carbon intensive industrial waste streams back into building products to assist in
permanent carbon capture such as diversion of fly ash from solid waste mono-fills at coal fired
energy sources to beneficial uses such as road base material or concrete ingredients.
Heat Island:
Support initiatives to reduce carbon impacts from heat island effects such as:
o Installing cool and green roofs,
o Installing or converting heat absorbing impervious surfaces to vegetated areas and cool
pavements
o Construction of green walls or other shading structures over exposed walls and surfaces
o Strategic planting of shade trees in and around the built environment
Convert reflective and impervious surfaces to vegetated areas with drought tolerant native
species, edible landscaping, or trees to provide shade, cooling, and insulating.
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Roles and Responsibilities
Role of the City
The
Role of the Private Sector
Private sector buy-in to sequestration programs to be aided by market development and adoption
processes for highest possible market penetration. Large scale industry and production facilities can lead
the way in adoption of new processes in order to ready local markets for affordability of adoption across
scales. Currently understood market economics for precedent economies should be scaled to the local
level in order to achieve maximum market penetration.
Role of Residents and Businesses
Residential and commercial customers must be aided in adoption programs through proper equipping of
household and businesses (such as widespread solid waste recycling and waste stream access).
Residents and businesses can and should be educated on the importance of program participation and
aided in uptake in order to achieve individual scale buy-in.
Adaptation Impact
Increased resiliency of watershed and agricultural lands
23
Implementing carbon mitigation strategies such as carbon sequestration helps to reduce and/or
delay the need for certain adaptation strategies in the future
Co-Benefits
Improved air quality
Improved soil health and fertility
Improved groundwater and surface water quality
Improved long term carbon holding potential
Decreased erosion
Increased ecosystem service functionality
Increased access to greenspace improves overall quality of life
Stimulation of local economy through job creation, new production and new
Supporting City Policies
Road to Zero Waste Plan
Fort Collins Air Quality Plan
Roadmap for Coordinated and Enhanced Green Building Services
Nature in the City
Poudre River Projects
Forestry Department Urban Forest Inventory
24
Strategy 13: Develop Communications Campaign/Social Mobilization
Tactics
City Programs:
Private Sector:
Roles and Responsibilities
Adaptation Impact
Co-Benefits
Supporting City Policies
PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT DETAILS
PROJECT TITLE: Climate Action Plan Update
OVERALL PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT LEVEL: Involve Key Stakeholders, get their ideas while also sharing a
limited list (16-18) of key strategies determined by Citizen Advisory Committee where we need input.
BOTTOM LINE QUESTION: Does the community support the draft proposed plan (when developed)?
KEY STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT:
General public
3 Public Forums (Dec 3 -Senior Center; January 22 -Lincoln Center; January 29 - Harmony Library,
Community Room)
Relevant Council Boards and Commissions
Air Quality Advisory Board (October and January 26)
Economic Advisory Commissions (December (tentative?) and January requested)
Energy Board (December 4 and February 5)
Natural Resources Advisory Board (October and January 21)
Water Board (December 4 and January requested)
Transportation Board (November 19, January requested)
Colorado Clean Energy Cluster Colorado Clean Energy Cluster Board (November 20)
Stakeholder Group
Chamber LLAC (November 21 and January requested)
North Fort Collins Business Association (November 19) requested future
Downtown Business Association (January 15)
Downtown Development Authority (December 11 and February 12)
South Fort Collins Business Association (requested)
Fort Collins Board of Realtors (December 9 and January 15)
Fort Collins Sustainability Group (December 8 and January 12)
Northern Colorado Renewable Energy Society (January 20)
FortZED Steering Committee (November 7)
Northern Colorado Clean Cities Coalition (January 5)
Kiwanis Eye Openers (July; January requested)
City Issues and Answers (December 4)
CSU Sustainability Committee (December 15)
Alliance for Sustainable Colorado (January 15)
Climate Change Risk Management Specialists (Invited to Open Houses)
ClimateWise partners and Utilities key accounts – incorporated into other events
Colorado State University – Sustainability Committee (December 15)
Clean Water Innovation Cluster – pending
South Fort Collins Business Association – requested
Interfaith Council – requested
Local Food Cluster – requested
Visit Colorado - requested
CSU Faculty Club – requestedGeorgie15
ATTACHMENT 4
Guiding Principles for Climate Action Plan Financing
Draft 11/19/14
City/Utility:
1. No significant adverse impact on the City’s balance sheet
2. No adverse impact on the City’s credit rating
3. The City’s investment should catalyze investment in strategies by end-users and the third parties
4. Internally the City’s priority is utility rate revenue before general fund revenue
Platte River Power Authority
1. Maintain Competitive Rates (Platte River should remain the lowest cost wholesale power
provider located in Colorado)
Other IPR Planning Objectives
Maintain Minimum Energy Reserve Margin of 15 percent
Achieve Renewables of 20 percent by 2020
Achieve CO2 Reduction of 20 percent by 2020, 35 percent by 2030, and 80 percent by 2050
Consumers/End Users
1. Affordable, reliable energy
2. An understanding of benefits versus costs that allows each user to make their own
determination of value
3. Others?
Private/Third Party Sources of Capital
1.
ATTACHMENT 5
Climate Action Plan - Strategies
1 City Council Work Session December 9, 2014
Climate Action Plan
Preliminary Strategy Analysis
ATTACHMENT 6
CAP Update Process
2
2014 Spg/Sum Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2015
2/17/15
Council
Action
1/13/15
Council
Work
Session:
Scenarios
/TBL
Impact
Platte
River
modeling
for Fort
Collins
complete
12/9
Council Work
Session:
Strategy
Analysis/
Interim
Scenarios
January:
Citizen
Advisory
Committee
Wraps up
8/12
Council Work
Session:
Framework
April:
GHG
Reduction
Objectives
Set
10/28
Council Work
Session:
High Level
Strategies
Brendle Group
Model
developed;
strategies
identified
RMI Tactics
Research
Completed
June:
Citizen
Advisory
Committee
kicks off
Direction Sought
3
1. Does Council have feedback on the proposed City policy
elements identified thus far?
2. Does Council have any comments on the planned public
engagement?
3. Is Council comfortable considering a high level CAP in
February 2015 that could be followed by a more detailed
implementation plan?
4. Is there additional information City Council wants staff to
investigate before February 2015?
Role of Goal and CAP
Goal
• Community leadership
• Attract outside capital
• Enhance innovation
• Spur community engagement
CAP
• Demonstrates feasibility
• High level strategic plan
• Roadmap for 15+ years
• Requires periodic updates
• Each action requires further
analysis and vetting
First CAP Model Iteration - Strategies
5
Approximates:
• 23% by 2020
• 73% by 2030
• 97 % by 2050
(Below 2005)
Res. Energy Efficiency
CII Energy Efficiency
Advanced Renewables
First CAP Model Iteration
6
7
Electric supply:
• 80% reduction in electricity GHG intensity
Existing homes and businesses:
• Are 36% more efficient
• 40% of homes and 10% of existing commercial buildings
are converted to all electric (heating, cooking, etc.)
• 22% of homes and 50% of businesses have installed
solar
As modeled, this would
require…in the next 15 years
8
New construction:
• Will be 85% more efficient than current code
• 45% have enough solar PV to achieve net zero energy
• 30% of new homes & 10% of new businesses are
all electric
Vehicles and Mileage
• 90 % new purchases are electric vehicles
• Remaining 10 % are ~40% more efficient than avg.
new stock
• People are driving 29% less miles per year
As modeled, this would
require…in the next 15 years
9
First CAP Model Iteration:
Net Cost /Savings
2020 2030 2040 2050
% below 2005
baseline 23% 73% 87% 97%
Net Cumulative
Costs/Savings
$200M
cost
$600M
Savings
$3B
Savings $8B Savings
Avg. monthly
cost/savings
per resident $20 cost $20 savings $20 savings $100 savings
Findings of the First Model Iteration
10
o Strategies can essentially
meet the goals, with minor
adjustments
o Renewable Energy is the
largest strategy (38% of
reduction in 2030)
o Energy efficiency is the second
largest (27% of reduction in
2030)
Key Variables in Model
11
o Discount rate (for estimating
costs/savings over time)
o Cost of carbon
o Elements to include in GHG
Inventory (e. g. airline travel?)
o Amount of renewables in
electric system
Scenario Options
• More emphasis on utility scale renewable energy
– Technology- based
– Lower risk of not achieving
• More emphasis on maximizing community
participation
– Behavior-based
– Greater risk of not achieving
12
Key Policy Elements of draft CAP
13
Energy efficiency for existing
commercial
• Energy reporting and disclosure
• Energy improvement measures
• Certification of building operators
who manage base building systems
• Retro-commissioning every 10 years
• Upgrades of lighting fixtures
• Rate Structures that incentivize
reduced demand
Key Policy Elements of draft CAP
14
Energy efficiency for residential
• Rental licensing program
requiring compliance or
efficiency improvements
• New utility business model
• Address barriers for
condominium energy efficiency
• Awareness and Education
• Increase access to loans and
funding
• Convert residential customers to
demand instructive utility rate
CAP Public Engagement
15
Public Open Houses
• December 3
• January 22 and 29
Civic Groups
• Fort Collins Sustainability Group
• Northern Colo. Renewable Energy Society
• Northern Colo Clean Cities Coalition
• Chamber LLAC
• North Fort Collins Business Association
• Fort Collins Board of Realtors
• Downtown Business Association
• Downtown Development Authority
• Kiwanis Eye Openers
• CSU Sustainability Committee
CAP Public Engagement
16
Council Advisory Boards
• Air Quality Advisory Board
• Economic Advisory Commission
• Energy Board
• Natural Resources Advisory Board
• Transportation Board
• Water Board
Numerous additional presentations requested
• Interfaith Council
• Visit Colorado
• Etc.
17
White House Task Force
On Climate Preparedness and Resilience
Report completed November 2014
• Climate Resilience Toolkit
• Host one of seven “Climate Hubs”
• Host to FEMA National Exercise
Related Next Steps
• Continued collaboration
among Task Force members
• Colorado Local Resilience Project
• CAP update
• Municipal Climate Adaptation Plan
18
CAP Next Steps
• CAC frame scenarios of interest (Dec)
• Public engagement on strategy concepts (Nov/Dec)
• Platte River modeling for Fort Collins scenarios
incorporated into CAP model (Dec)
• Triple Bottom Line assessment of scenarios (Dec/Jan)
• CAC develops recommendation (Jan)
• Coordination with Energy Policy Updates (Jan/Feb)
• Public engagement (Jan/Feb)
• Jan 13, 2015 Council work session
• February 17, 2015 Council action
Direction Sought
19
1. Does Council have feedback on the proposed City policy
elements identified thus far?
2. Does Council have any comments on the planned public
engagement?
3. Is Council comfortable considering a high level CAP in
February 2015 that could be followed by a more detailed
implementation plan?
4. Is there additional information City Council wants staff to
investigate before February 2015?