HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOUNCIL - AGENDA ITEM - 05/10/2016 - LIGHT & POWER RELIABILITY UPDATEDATE:
STAFF:
May 10, 2016
Tim McCollough, Light and Power Operations Manager
Kevin Gertig, Utilities Executive Director
Chris Parton, Asset Manager
WORK SESSION ITEM
City Council
SUBJECT FOR DISCUSSION
Light & Power Reliability Update.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The purpose of this item is to provide an overview of the Utilities Light and Power Operations reliability
improvement efforts, opportunities, and accomplishments.
GENERAL DIRECTION SOUGHT AND SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED
Staff is providing an update of current and future efforts and is requesting Council feedback.
BACKGROUND / DISCUSSION
Reliability Metrics
Electric service reliability is increasingly important to all types of electric customers. Electric service reliability is
useful in attracting new economic development and retaining existing industrial customers.
Reliability from the customer’s standpoint means good power quality (voltage and frequency) and few, if any,
interruptions of service and, when interruptions do occur, rapid restoration of service. The most commonly used
service reliability indices for electric distribution utilities end-use customers are identified by the following
acronyms:
SAIDI, or the System Average Interruption Duration Index, is the average number of minutes of
service interruption experienced on our electric distribution system per customer.
SAIFI, or the System Average Interruption Frequency Index, is the average number of sustained
(greater than one minute) service interruptions on our electric distribution system per customer.
CAIDI, or the Customer Average Interruption Duration Index, is the average length of a service
interruption for those customers who have experienced and outage.
MAIFI, or the Momentary Average Interruption Frequency, is the average number of momentary (less
than one minute) service interruptions experienced on our electric distribution system per customer.
It is important to note that reliability metrics are calculated and reported on a rolling twelve month basis each
quarter. A single outage will impact the reliability metrics for a full year after the event.
For many years, Fort Collins Utilities customers have enjoyed the high reliability of an underground electric
distribution system. Being nearly 100% underground, the electric distribution system is not exposed to many of
the leading industry causes of electric outages such as ice, wind, lightning, vegetation growth and squirrels. But
the system is not without exposure. The distribution system is exposed to ground water, corrosion, humans with
excavation equipment, and other forces of entropy that can cause equipment to fail and service to be interrupted.
Table 1 gives a summary of current reliability metrics, some of the industry benchmarks, and Fort Collins Utilities
goals.
May 10, 2016 Page 2
Table 1: Fort Collins Utilities Reliability Statistics
Metric APPA 2013
Regional
Average
2015
Energy
Policy Goal
Community
Dashboard
Goal
Fort Collins
Utilities Data
Q1 2016
System Average Interruption
Duration Index (SAIDI)
53.05 n/a 22.05 20.60
System Average Interruption
Frequency Index (SAIFI)
1.02 0.66 n/a 0.36
Customer Average Interruption
Duration Index (CAIDI)
78.69 45 n/a 56
Momentary Average Interruption
Frequency Index (MAIFI)
2.51 0.35 n/a 0.01
SAIDI
This reliability update will focus only on SAIDI metric. As a point of reference the average annual value of SAIDI
among 89 public power utilities responding to a 2013 American Public Power Association reliability survey from
across the United States was approximately 70 minutes. The quarter of the worst reliability in the past 5 years is
approximately twice as good as the APPA reported national average.
Service interruptions happen more frequently between March and October during the peak load season driven by
higher electric demand, higher consumption, and other environmental factors such as heat and construction
activities that add stress to the system. Figure 1 shows a two year quarterly trend of the SAIDI metric. Note that
there was a step increase in SAIDI number in Q4 2014 and again in Q3 2015.
Figure 1: Fort Collins Utilities System Average Interruption Duration Index - Annual Basis
May 10, 2016 Page 3
SAIDI by Quarter
To show the impact of individual outages more clearly, it is useful to calculate SAIDI for a shorter time period.
Figure 2 is a chart of the quarterly SAIDI data calculated for that quarter rather than the industry standard of a 12-
month period. Figure 2 shows the underlying pattern of reliability and the primary drivers of the Q4 2014 and Q3
2015 step increases in the annual SAIDI number.
Q4 2014 was the worst performing quarter for reliability in the past five years. A single notable outage event in
November of 2014 accounted for 75% of SAIDI minutes in the fourth quarter and also affected the metric in the
first three following quarters of 2015. The root cause of that outage is well understood by staff and corrective
actions are in place to prevent any future occurrence of an outage related to this root cause.
The most recent quarter, Q3 2015, was the second worst performing quarter in the past five years for customer
outage minutes. Although there were multiple events in that quarter that caused customer outage minutes, three
of the outages are all related to a single type of cable that failed and account for more than 70% of the SAIDI
minutes.
Figure 2: Fort Collins Utilities System Average Interruption Duration Index - Quarterly Basis with Notable
Events and Avoided Minutes
Asset Inventory and Condition Assessment
Two of the most valuable and critical components in the system are underground cable and transformers, both of
which have finite lives. Age, unfortunately, is not the only predictor of failures. Many other factors contribute to
the failure mechanisms the system can experience. Some of the other factors include high component utilization
leading to thermal failures, environmental conditions creating corrosion or compromising the electrical insulation
of cable, manufacturing defects, and human damage.
May 10, 2016 Page 4
Every time an outage is experienced or an asset is identified that is a risk to the reliability of the system, the root
cause mechanisms are studied in the Standards Engineering Laboratory. This data helps identify the risks to the
reliability of the system.
In order to more accurately predict where failures may occur, a focused effort began in 2015 to complete a full
asset inventory and condition assessment of the electric distribution system. There are approximately 12,235
points of inspection identified and more than 1,919 miles of underground cable included in this inspection effort.
One of the existing lineworker crews began the task in early 2015 of visiting every inspection point of the system
to gather the asset information and collect condition assessment data. This project was expected to take five
years to complete.
In October 2015, additional crews were added to accelerate the condition assessment effort and the project
prioritized to collect data on the highest risk and highest impact assets first. The condition assessment on the
portion of the system that poses the highest risk is already complete and the remaining inspections will be
complete by the end of 2017.
The condition assessment uses multiple inspection techniques and tools, including:
Visual inspection: Identifies component corrosion or environmental hazards
Infrared Thermography: Identifies thermal heating indicative of pending failures
Advanced Metering Infrastructure: Voltage alarms from the meters identify bad electrical connectors
that are degraded or other transformer related issues.
Avoided Outage Minutes
A co-benefit of the asset inventory and condition assessment is that crews have an opportunity to inspect the
system and have subsequently identified several components that were pending immediate failure. When these
components are identified, immediate action is taken to replace them. This preventative maintenance avoids an
unplanned outage and has direct positive impact on reliability. A metric was created to describe avoided outage
minutes related to these maintenance activities. Figure 3 displays the annual SAIDI reliability metric and includes
the contribution of the notable events from Q4 2014 and Q3 2015 and also the impact that the avoided outage
minutes would have had on the reliability of the system. In 2015 staff estimates that SAIDI reliability performance
has improved by 18% from what could have been experienced had the maintenance not been performed.
May 10, 2016 Page 5
Figure 3: Fort Collins Utilities System Average Interruption Duration Index - Annual Basis with Notable
Events and Avoided Minutes
Asset Management Plan Process Map
The asset management program uses the asset inventory and condition assessment data and the failure data
from the Standards Engineering Laboratory to develop dynamic risk registers for each asset in the distribution
system. This risk register prioritizes replacement of existing infrastructure based on the impact to the customer if
the asset experiences a failure. This risk register also identifies different management and inspection strategies
based on the type of asset and its importance to system operation. These management strategies are
documented in asset management plans which, in turn, drive capital investment in an attempt to manage risk in
the distribution system and ensure a high level of reliability to customers.
Finally, these capital improvements require adequate funding at the appropriate time. These funding needs are
identified in the Utilities Strategic Financial Plan.
Capital Improvement Plan for Asset Management
The capital improvement plan for the Light & Power Enterprise Fund consists of three types of capital
improvements:
Improvements to serve new growth in the service territory
Improvements related to the annexation of infrastructure owned by other electric service providers
Improvements to existing infrastructure that will improve reliability for existing customers.
A fourth potential category of capital project is improvements related to the adoption of the Climate Action Plan
(CAP). It is uncertain how capital projects related to CAP will affect the enterprise.
Projects that are the result of asset management analysis will generally fall under the third category mentioned
above, improvements to existing infrastructure. As the distribution system continues to age and staff identifies
May 10, 2016 Page 6
reliability risks factors in the system, these projects will grow in number. It is imperative that these projects be
identified, funded, and constructed in a timely manner to ensure a high level of service to Light & Power
customers is maintained.
Table 2 gives a summary of the Capital Improvement Plan looking forward ten years. System renewal accounts
for approximately 25% of anticipated capital dollars.
Table 2: Light & Power Capital Improvement Plan
Category 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
New Capacity $4.7 $3.6 $1.0 $1.8 $3.0 $7.6 $13.4 $3.3
Annexations $0.1 $3.0 $3.0 $3.0 $3.0 $3.0
System Renewal $2.3 $2.3 $2.4 $2.4 $2.4 $2.2 $1.7 $1.7 $1.6 $1.4
In Millions
ATTACHMENTS
1. Powerpoint presentation (PDF)
1
Light & Power Reliability Update
ATTACHMENT 1
Outline
• Reliability Metrics
• Asset Inventory and Condition Assessment
• Asset Management Plan
• Capital Improvements for Asset Management
• Questions
2
3
System
Average
Interruption
Duration
Index
Number of Minutes
Number of Customers
SAIDI
4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
Number of Minutes
SAIDI Annual SAIDI Annual: Goal
SAIDI by Quarter
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
Number of Minutes
SAIDI Quarterly SAIDI Quarterly: Goal
SAIDI by Quarter
6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
Number of Minutes
SAIDI Quarterly: Adjusted SAIDI Quarterly: Notable Events SAIDI Quarterly: Goal
Asset Condition Assessment
7
Age not the
only factor
Inspections
AMI Data
Asset Condition Assessment
8
SAIDI with Notable & Avoided
9
9.7 10.9
9.6 9.3 10.1
11.5
13.5 14.7
15.1 13.9
10.9 11.7
12.1
12.1 12.1
21.9
9.7
10.9
2.0
2.0
4.4
8.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
Number of Minutes
SAIDI Annual: Adjusted SAIDI Annual: Notable Events SAIDI Annual: Avoided SAIDI Annual: Goal
10
Asset Management Planning
11
Asset Data Collection
Dynamic Risk Register
Asset Management Plans
Capital Improvement Plans
Strategic Financial Plans
Capital Improvement Plan
Light & Power
Capital
Improvement Plan
New Capacity Annexations System Renewal
Asset
Management
Plans
12
Capital Improvement Plan
13
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Future
Years
Capital Spend Millions
New Capacity Annexations System Renewal Operational Tech Average Capital
14
15
Exceptional
Service
Electric
Reliability
Questions
1. What additional information does Council need?
16