The URL can be used to link to this page

Home My WebLink AboutCOUNCIL - AGENDA ITEM - 07/12/2011 - UPDATE ON THE ECONOMIC HEALTH STRATEGIC PLANNING PDATE: July 12, 2011 STAFF: Josh Birks Mike Freeman Pre-taped staff presentation: none WORK SESSION ITEM FORT COLLINS CITY COUNCIL SUBJECT FOR DISCUSSION Update on the Economic Health Strategic Planning Process with the City’s Consultant Team and Staff. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The City of Fort Collins’ Economic Action Plan was first developed in 2005 and has been updated annually as part of the Budgeting for Outcomes process. Now, more than five years later, it is time to re-evaluate the Economic Action Plan and develop a revised Economic Health Strategic Plan. City Council approved $150,000 in one-time funding from the Keep Fort Collins Great funding allocation for this project in 2011. TIP Strategies from Austin, TX was selected to lead this process. TIP staff was present at the May 10, 2011 Work Session to present their overall scope of services and have an initial conversation with the City Council about the project. At that time, it was decided that it would be helpful and important to the process to have an early check in with the City Council. The scope of work outlined by the consultants includes three primary phases: (1) Discovery,( 2) Opportunity, and (3) Implementation. This work session comes near the end of the first phase. The conversation with City Council is to present the findings from the assessment, discuss the draft “Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats” (SWOT) chart, and brainstorm benchmark communities for the opportunity phase. GENERAL DIRECTION SOUGHT AND SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED 1. Does City Council have any questions or comments on the Draft Assessment? 2. Based on the SWOT analysis presented, does City Council believe it accurately reflects the Fort Collins situation? How would City Council adjust the analysis? Is there anything missing? 3. Does City Council support the draft list of benchmark communities? Should communities be added or removed? 4. Does City Council have any questions or concerns about the overall project? BACKGROUND / DISCUSSION The City of Fort Collins’ Economic Action Plan was first developed in 2005 and updated annually as part of the Budgeting for Outcomes process. Now, more than five years later, it is time to re- evaluate the Economic Action Plan and develop a revised Economic Health Strategic Plan. The City July 12, 2011 Page 2 sought proposals from experienced teams to craft a five-year Economic Health Strategic Plan. The proposals included the following: A) analysis of the City’s existing Economic Health strategy, B) an implementation plan identifying next steps to achieve key outcomes, and C) work with key stakeholders. The consulting team will provide all the management and services to develop the plan. The revised Economic Health Strategic Plan should lead to: • Increased company expansion in Fort Collins • Greater retention of jobs, specifically in targeted industry clusters • Additional primary jobs in the targeted industry clusters • Heightened awareness of Fort Collins as a global business location in the targeted industry clusters • Enhancement to technology transfer and commercialization from Colorado State University and private sector partners • Increased availability of seed, angel, venture, and other forms of capital to support innovation. Outline of Public Process The overall approach is to use the Economic Advisory Commission (EAC) as a steering committee for the project, possibly with the addition of one or two other stakeholder representatives. Based on feedback during the May 10, 2011 City Council Work Session, staff developed a list of stakeholders to be interviewed by the consultant group (See Attachment 2). The list attempts to provide a broad range of view points. A public open house/roll out will occur near the end of the project to verify and vet the direction with a larger public audience. The public roll-out will an opportunity for comments prior to City Council’s adoption of the Strategic Plan (currently planned for January 2012). One of the key assumptions of the Strategic Plan Update is that the staff and consultants will build on and utilize the public input gathered from the Plan Fort Collins process as well as the Plan Document itself. Much of information gathered in the Plan Fort Collins process addresses the City economic conditions and future goals and expectations. The proposed project schedule: May 10 Initial City Council Work Session: Project Description, Scope, Overview of Public Process, City Council Goals and Expectations- COMPLETED May 11 Economic Advisory Commission presentation - COMPLETED July 12 Interim City Council Work Session: Project Progress, Results of Discovery Phase - Draft Economic Assessment July 13 Parallel EAC meeting to City Council Work Session October Public Open House/Roll Out (substantially complete draft document) October 19 Parallel EAC meeting to the Public Open House/Roll Out December 13 Final City Council Work Session: Review of complete draft document - seek comments and revisions January 17, 2012 City Council Regular Meeting - Public Hearing and Consideration of Adoption of Plan July 12, 2011 Page 3 ATTACHMENTS 1. Draft Economic Assessment 2. Stakeholder List 3. Powerpoint presentation CITY OF FORT COLLINS, CO ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT | JUNE 2011 106 East 6th Street, Suite 550 | Austin, Texas 78701 | 512.343.9113 | www.tipstrategies.com DRAFT ATTACHMENT 1 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 2 SUMMARY ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT To provide a common framework for our recommendations, TIP began by compiling demographic and economic data on Fort Collins and the Front Range. This analysis focused on Fort Collins and Larimer County in the context of the state of Colorado and the nation where appropriate. The purpose is to understand the city’s relative economic position and highlight its competitive advantages and disadvantages. About the data We based our findings on the following elements: A review of relevant studies, plans, and other material provided by the City of Fort Collins; A review of economic and demographic data from primary and secondary sources, including the US Census Bureau, the Internal Revenue Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI). The data and analysis is organized within five categories: demographics, migration and mobility, income and housing, economy, and workforce. INSERT PICTURE DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 3 SUMMARY Summary of Data Findings DEMOGRAPHICS  Larimer County’s population is becoming increasingly urbanized. Fort Collins and the other incorporated areas of Larimer County have been growing at a rapid pace over the last 10 years. Population in unincorporated areas has been flat. On the other hand, Fort Collins is growing more slowly than Loveland, Windsor, and Wellington and this trend is expected to continue.  The aging of the population is a demographic challenging facing the nation. While the Fort Collins MSA is expected to follow this trend, the impact will be far less dramatic compared to the rest of the nation. MIGRATION & MOBILITY  Domestic migration accounts for most of the growth in Fort Collins. The largest number of residents that move to the Fort Collins MSA are from Boulder County, and Weld County receives the largest number of outbound migrants from the MSA. Though the in-migration of residents to the Fort Collins MSA slowed from 2003 to 2005, it has since recovered and remained stable over the last 4 years.  Since 1998, immigration (international) varied between 400 and 600. From 1990 to 1998, on the other hand, the number of foreign nationals migrating to the Fort Collins MSA ranged between 1,200 and 1,600.  The daily commuter flow reveals that the City of Fort Collins is a net importer of labor. Inbound commuters come from Windsor, Loveland, Wellington, and Laporte while outbound commuters go to Denver, Boulder, Westminster, and Longmont. Education Services, Healthcare, and Professional Services are the three sectors that draw commuters into Fort Collins. Construction, Wholesale Trade, and Transportation are the three sectors that draw the most commuters out of Fort Collins. INCOME & HOUSING  Income and housing in Fort Collins follows the trends expected for a college town. The median household income is lower than the state as well as Larimer County but is comparable to the national average. In addition, the average household size is smaller.  Of note is that the housing market is tight. Fort Collins has a vacancy rate of only 6% and the median home value is almost $250,000, which is more than 30% higher than the national average. As a result, Fort Collins and Larimer County are less affordable than both the state and the nation. DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 4 SUMMARY ECONOMY  Fort Collins’ unemployment is currently higher than the county as a whole, but significantly lower than the state and national unemployment rates. Since 2008, the city’s unemployment rolls have doubled and remain elevated.  The primary source of revenue for the city is sales and use tax. The receipts from sales and use tax outweigh property tax receipts 4 to 1. However, the sales and use tax base per-resident has been relatively stable over the past 10 years. Meanwhile, the property tax base, on a per-resident basis, has increased 60% over the past 10 years.  The government sector, which includes public education, is the largest employment sector in the Fort Collins MSA. The retail trade and healthcare sectors are the next largest sectors. Since 2003, the healthcare, professional services, and finance sectors have been the most rapidly growing.  In terms of relative concentration of employment versus the nation, Fort Collins’ strongest sectors are in manufacturing – breweries, engine equipment, and analytical laboratory instruments. WORKFORCE  Although the Fort Collins MSA’s workforce is highly educated, the available jobs do not necessarily meet the skill level of the residents. Forty-one percent of the population in the MSA has earned a bachelor degree or higher. However, 65% of the jobs in the MSA require only on-the-job training or previous experience; only 25% of the jobs require a 4-year degree or higher.  The largest occupation groups are sales, office and administrative support, and management. Business and financial operations, healthcare, and management are the fastest growing occupational groups. DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 5 SWOT SWOT TIP conducted an economic development SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) for the City of Fort Collins, based on a review of economic, demographic, and workforce characteristics, interviews with local and regional business and community leaders, and our experience working with communities and regions across the country. The graphic illustrates the results of the analysis conducted as part of the assessment. The size of the bubble is intended to convey the consulting team’s view of the relative importance of the topic, and in some cases, the likelihood of impact in the region. Items closer to the center of the graph tend to be more local in nature. Those at the outer corners are influenced by state, national, or global trends, placing them to some degree outside of local or regional control. WEAKNESSES STRENGTHS THREATS OPPORTUNITIES growing clean energy & bioscience clusters rebounding state/regional economy ability to attract executives I-25 Corridor federal export initiative may open new opportunities for local producers R&D at federal labs & CSU open labor networks growing global demand for US products and services favorable exchange rate for US$benefits exporters collaborating more closely with CSU natural assets / outdoor playground top 5 states to do business I-25 (CNBC) frontage DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 6 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT DEMOGRAPHICS Figure1: Population1 The population of Fort Collins pushed close to 144,000 residents in the 2010 Census. The Fort Collins MSA added about 48,000 new residents over the decade. Half of these were added in the City of Fort Collins with the remainder mostly in other incorporated areas of the county. The unincorporated areas of the county held relatively steady in population during the decade. 1 SOURCES: Colorado Division of Local Government, Colorado State Data Center Larimer County's population A decade of change 118,652 City of Fort Collins 143,986 64,023 Other incorporated areas 89,784 68,819 Unincorporated areas 65,860 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000 130,000 140,000 150,000 2000 2005 2010 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 7 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT DEMOGRAPHICS Figure 2: Population Outlook2 The Colorado State Data Center's most recent population forecast shows the Fort Collins MSA on track to reach 500,000 in 30 years. As of the 2010 Census, the MSA population was approaching 300,000, growing almost 19% since the 2000 census. The Colorado State Data Center's forecast represents a net increase of about 200,000 residents over the next 3 decades, a 66% increase. 2 SOURCES: Moody's Analytics; U.S. Census Bureau (1970-1999); Colorado Division of Local Government, Colorado State Data Center (2000-2040) Larimer County's population outlook No changes expected in recent growth pattern 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 History Forecast DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 8 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT DEMOGRAPHICS Figure 3: Comparative Population Distribution by Age3 The demographic characteristics of college towns always deviate from the national average and Fort Collins is no different in this respect. About 34% of the city's residents are in their 20s or early 30s. Across the US, this age cohort is only 20% of the population. The bulge of 20-34 year-olds in Fort Collins means that other age cohorts are less represented in relative terms, including seniors, children, and older adults of working age. 3 SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey, 2009) DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 9 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT DEMOGRAPHICS Figure 4: Larimer County Population Distribution by Age4 Nationwide, the age composition of the country is changing rapidly as the first baby boomers are just now beginning to retire. Over the next two decades the ranks of seniors will grow enormously. This pattern is expected to occur in the Fort Collins MSA as well, but the overall trend is minor compared to the rest of the country. The ranks of seniors will increase, but these changes in demographic composition will not be noticed as much here as in the rest of the country. 4 SOURCES: US Census Bureau; Moody's Analytics DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 10 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT DEMOGRAPHICS Figure 5: Current Enrollment Status of the Population5 Nationwide, about 26% of the population is enrolled in an educational program at some level -- anything from pre-school to graduate school. Colorado looks a lot like the national average, but in Fort Collins the presence of Colorado State skews the enrollment rate for the city's population as well as the MSA. Nearly 4 of every 10 residents in the City of Fort Collins is enrolled in an educational program of some kind. 5 SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey, 2005-2009 average) DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 11 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT DEMOGRAPHICS Figure 6: Demographic Comparison - Ancestry, homeownership, military service, language, & citizenship6 A large base of rental housing is needed to accommodate student populations. In the City of Fort Collins, about 47% of occupied housing units are rentals. This trend, however, doesn't translate to the rest of the MSA. Larimer County itself has an overall homeownership rate that looks more like the state and US averages. 6 NOTE: "Family origins" is calculated from Census tabulations across multiple categories, including ancestry, race, & ethnicity; "Military service" is calculated on the population age 18 or older; SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey, 2005-2009 average) Demographic comparison Ancestry, homeownership, military service, language, & citizenship Family origins Germany ██████████████ ████████████████████ ███████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████ Latin America ██████████████ ██████████████████ █████████ ████████ Africa ███████████ ████ █ █ Ireland ██████████ ███████████ ██████████████ ██████████████ England ████████ ██████████ ████████████ ███████████ Asia ████ ███ ██ ███ Scandinavia ███ █████ █████████ ████████ Home Owner Renter Military service Civilian veteran Currently in uniform Primary language English Spanish Other Citizenship US-born Naturalized citizen Not yet a citizen 87% 90% 95% 94% 5% 3% 2% 2% 7% 6% 3% 4% 12% 12% 7% 6% 8% 5% 3% 5% 1% 1% <1% <1% 80% 83% 90% 89% 34% 33% 34% 47% 9% 11% 10% 8% 3% 6% 10% 9% 66% 67% 66% 53% 9% 12% 14% 12% 5% 3% 2% 4% 2% 12% 13% 16% 16% USA Colorado Larimer County Fort Collins 17% 23% 31% 29% 16% 20% 10% 10% 13% 5% 1% DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 12 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT MIGRATION & MOBILITY Figure 7: Larimer County Migration Patterns – Gross numbers of inbound and outbound movers since 19897 The IRS provides county-level tabulations of exemptions for annual tax return filings. When the home address of a tax return filer crosses a county line from one year to the next, the aggregated IRS files capture this as an inbound or an outbound move for a given county. These records show that inbound moves into the Fort Collins MSA grew from about 13,000 in 1989 to 18,000 in 2001. Inbound migration peaked during the tech boom, and then aligned more closely with outbound migration. Recent IRS data show that net migration into the county is still positive, but the margin hasn't regained its 1990s- era levels. 7 SOURCES: US Internal Revenue Service, county-to-county migration flows; Moodys Analytics DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 13 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT MIGRATION & MOBILITY Figure 8: Components of Growth in Fort Collins MSA8 Natural increase and immigration have proven stable, steady contributors to the MSA's population growth, but the more volatile component of net domestic in-migration tends to be the biggest driver of population growth in most years. The Census Bureau's annual estimates of net domestic in-migration align closely with the trends seen in IRS records. A dip in net migration occurred after the tech boom of the 1990s, and the MSA has only recent begun to resume more typical growth patterns. 8 SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of the Census; Moody's Analytics +0 +1,000 +2,000 +3,000 +4,000 +5,000 +6,000 +7,000 +8,000 +9,000 +10,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 domestic migration immigration natural increase (births minus deaths) detail in next exhibit DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 14 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT MIGRATION & MOBILITY Figure 9: Mobility rates in the City of Fort Collins by age, 2006-2009 averages- % of Fort Collins population that moved during an average year in each age cohort9 TIP analyzed city-level data from the American Community Survey for the four years from 2006-2009. This analysis documents mobility patterns by age, but it yields few surprises. In- migration into the city is heaviest among 18-19 year-olds transitioning from high school to college. Mobility is very high among those in their 20s. The analysis also shows that as adults in the City of Fort Collins grow older, their annual mobility rates generally decline. Young families with children are likely to scramble to new nests before their kids start kindergarten, but the mobility rate among school-age children then drops by half. 9 SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Surveys, 2006, 2007, 2008, & 2009) DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 15 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT MIGRATION & MOBILITY Figure 10: Counties with historically high migration patterns with Larimer County- Annual net migration into (out of) Larimer County from the selected counties10 Looking back once more at IRS tabulations, we are able to answer some basic "where" questions about mobility. Larimer County nets most of its new residents from Boulder County and picks up a relatively steady trickle of in-migrants from urban Southern California counties. Larimer loses more residents on a net basis to Weld County than anywhere else. Denver County is a distant second, but it too has recently been peeling away as many as 200-300 Larimer residents a year on a net basis.exceeds the number of jobs in the city by more than 2,000. SOURCES: US Internal Revenue Service, county-to-county migration flows; Moodys Analytics inbound (net moving into Larimer County) outbound (net leaving Larimer County) +1000 +1000 +800 +800 +600 +600 +400 +400 +200 +200 0 0 -200 -200 -400 -400 -600 -600 -800 -800 -1000 -1000 -1200 -1200 -1400 -1400 -1600 -1600 -1800 -1800 Boulder Jefferson Los Angeles El Paso Arapahoe Denver Weld County County County County County County County San Diego County Colorado Colorado California Colorado California Colorado Colorado Colorado 1989 2008 1989 2008 1989 2008 1989 2008 1989 2008 1989 2008 1989 2008 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 16 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT MIGRATION & MOBILITY Figure 11: Net daily commuter flow to and from City of Fort Collins - Four inbound commuters to city for every three who commute out11 Net inbound commuting into the City of Fort Collins narrowed during the recession that followed the tech boom (about 2003), but inbound commuting growth has since resumed. The city nets about 10,000 inbound commuters. What these means in real terms is that the city's job base exceeds the number of employed residents by about 10,000. 11 SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Local Employment Dynamics (LED) database, 2002-2009 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 17 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT MIGRATION & MOBILITY Figure 12: Net daily commuter flow between City of Fort Collins and other cities- Net outbound flows from Fort Collins to cities further south; most net inbound traffic is local12 Commuters who reside in the City of Fort Collins but work elsewhere are most likely headed to work in Denver, Boulder, or other cities to the south. Fort Collins pulls in its inbound commuters mostly from surrounding cities within the MSA. 12 SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Local Employment Dynamics (LED) database, 2002-2009 inbound (net commuting into Fort Collins) outbound (net commuting out of Fort Collins) +1,200 +1,200 +1,000 +1,000 +800 +800 +600 +600 +400 +400 +200 +200 0 0 -200 -200 -400 -400 -600 -600 -800 -800 -1,000 -1,000 -1,200 -1,200 -1,400 -1,400 -1,600 -1,600 -1,800 -1,800 -2,000 -2,000 City of City of City of City of City of City of City of Denver Boulder Westminster Longmont Laporte Wellington City of Colorado Loveland Windsor Colorado Colorado Colorado Colorado Colorado Colorado Colorado 2002 2009 2002 2009 2002 2009 2002 2009 2002 2009 2002 2009 2002 2009 2002 2009 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 18 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT MIGRATION & MOBILITY Figure 13: Fort Collins commuting patterns by sociodemographic characteristics - Variation by age, but less variation by earnings13 Commuting patterns by earnings show surprisingly little variation in pattern over the past several years. Commuting patterns by age, however, show one key trend: the recession following the tech boom appears to have impacted younger workers more than others. Those under the age of 30 were more likely to commute out of the city for work in the first half of the decade. This trend has since reversed; since 2006, the city has pulled in more workers under the age of 30 than it has lost. Still, this net margin is slim compared to other age groups. 13 SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Local Employment Dynamics (LED) database, 2002-2009 inbound (net commuting into the City of Fort Collins) outbound (net commuting out of the City of Fort Collins) +8000 +8000 +8000 +8000 +7500 +7500 +7500 +7500 +7000 +7000 +7000 +7000 +6500 +6500 +6500 +6500 +6000 +6000 +6000 +6000 +5500 +5500 +5500 +5500 +5000 +5000 +5000 +5000 +4500 +4500 +4500 +4500 +4000 +4000 +4000 +4000 +3500 +3500 +3500 +3500 +3000 +3000 +3000 +3000 +2500 +2500 +2500 +2500 +2000 +2000 +2000 +2000 +1500 +1500 +1500 +1500 +1000 +1000 +1000 +1000 +500 +500 +500 +500 0 0 0 0 -500 -500 -500 -500 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1500 -1500 -1500 -1500 -2000 -2000 -2000 -2000 by age cohort by annual earnings Under 30 30 to 54 55 or older <$15,000 $15k to $40k >$40,000 2002 2009 2002 2009 2002 2009 2002 2009 2002 2009 2002 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 19 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT MIGRATION & MOBILITY Figure 14: Net daily commuter flow to/from City of Fort Collins by economic sector14 City residents who work in construction, wholesale trade, transportation/warehousing, and information/media sectors are more likely to leave the city limits for work than those who work in other sectors of the economy. The city's education, healthcare, and professional services sectors draw considerable inbound traffic, as does the government sector. The city's manufacturing sector once attracted heavy inbound commuting, but as recently as 2009, this inbound flow had reversed. 14 SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Local Employment Dynamics (LED) database, 2002-2009 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 20 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT INCOME & HOUSING Figure 15:Household snapshots – Top 3 household segments in Fort Collins15 #1 College Towns #2 Up and Coming Families #3 Metropolitans Demographic With a median age of 24.4 years, College Towns is the third youngest of all the Tapestry segments. Most residents are aged between 18 and 34 years and live in single-person or shared households. One-fourth of households are occupied by married-couple families. The race profile of this market is somewhat similar to the US profile. Approximately three-fourths of the residents are white. Up and Coming Families represents Tapestry Segmentation’s second highest household growth market. Residents of these neighborhoods are young, affluent families with younger children. Most of the residents are white; however, diversity is increasing as the segment grows. Residents of Metropolitans communities prefer to live in older city neighborhoods. Approximately half of these households are singles who live alone or with others; 40 percent are married- couple families. One in four of the residents is aged 20–34 years. Diversity is low; most of the population is white. Socioeconomic College Towns residents are focused on education. Many residents are enrolled in the university and others stay in the community to teach or do research. Because many students only work part-time, the median household income is low. Most of the employed residents work in the service industry, holding on- and off- campus jobs in educational services, health care, and food preparation. In addition, the median net worth is very low. Residents of Up and Coming Families are earning above-average incomes. The median household income is $76,135, higher than the national median. The median net worth is $175,142. Residents of this segment are highly educated. Labor force participation is high and unemployment is low. The labor force participation rate is well above average. Half of the residents who are employed work in professional or managerial positions and they are highly educated. The median household income is $60,191; the median net worth is $102,460. Residential Students in off-campus housing live in low- income apartment rentals. Most of the owner- occupied dwellings are single family. The median home value is $137,707. One-third of the housing is single-family structures. DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 21 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT #1 College Towns #2 Up and Coming Families #3 Metropolitans Preferences Convenience dictates food choices; they usually buy ready-made, easy-to-prepare, or frozen meals, frozen pasta, pizza crusts, and peanut butter and jelly at the closest grocery store. With their busy lifestyles, they frequently eat out or order in from fast-food restaurants, particularly McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and pizza outlets during the week; however, many cook at home over the weekend. They buy books online and in stores. They have student loans and bank online or by ATM. These computer-savvy students own laptop computers or expensive desktop personal computers and the peripherals to match. Connecting to the Internet is essential; they go online to research assignments, look for jobs, check e-mail, and download music. Keeping in touch is also important; they buy and use cell phones and accessories. New to living on their own, many College Towns residents purchase bedding, bath, and cooking products. They own few appliances but, at a minimum, have a microwave oven, a toaster, and an upright vacuum cleaner. Their lifestyle is very casual. They rank high for participating in nearly every outdoor sport and athletic activity. College Towns residents attend country music and rock concerts and college basketball and football games, play pool, and go to movies and bars. They also participate in public activities including fund-raising and volunteer work. They usually listen to alternative music on their MP3 players, tune in to public radio, and watch MTV and Comedy Central on cable TV. They shop at discount stores but prefer to buy branded clothes from Old Navy, Gap, and Target. Family and home dictate the products these residents buy. Many are beginning or expanding their families, so baby equipment, children’s clothing, and toys are essential purchases. Because many are first-time homeowners, basic household furniture and lawn fertilizer, weed control, and insecticide products are important. Car loans and mortgage payments are major household budget items. They are most likely to own or lease an SUV or a minivan. They eat out at family restaurants, especially on the weekends, and buy fast food at the drive-through or for takeout. They play softball, take the kids to the zoo, and visit theme parks (generally Sea World or Disney World) where they make good use of their digital camera or camcorder. They rent comedy, family, and action/adventure DVDs. Cable station favorites include Country Music Channel, ESPN news, The Learning Channel, and the Disney DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 22 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT INCOME & HOUSING Figure 16: Household comparison – Household size, income, and housing stock16 In Fort Collins, the average household size is below the national average. Housing demand (reflected in occupancy rates) is relatively high, which may put some pressure on prices and affordability. Six of every 10 housing units in the city has been constructed since 1980. Barely 1 in 10 housing units in the city predates the 1960s. 16 NOTE: The affordability ratio is the median home value divided by the median household income. The "ratio" equates the home price to raw earning potential (expressed in years of gross income needed to pay for the home) The lower the number, the more affordable the housing. Median household income for the 9-county region is an average of the counties weighted by the number of households. Median home prices in each county are weighted by the number of occupied housing units to estimate the 9-county median. SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey, 2009) DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 23 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT INCOME & HOUSING Figure 17: Distribution of household income – Share of total households by income level17 Income distribution in the City of Fort Collins closely parallels the national average. The main difference is that Fort Collins has a bulge of households in the $15,000- $25,000 range. This bulge is likely to be attributable to a high rate of part-time employment associated with the college-age population. 17 SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey, 2009) DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 24 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT INCOME & HOUSING Figure 18: Housing affordability ratios18 The easy rule-of-thumb for measuring housing affordability is the ratio of median home price to median household income. This ratio is essentially the number of years a typical household would need to pay for a median-priced housing unit if, in theory, 100% of income were applied to the principal until it was paid off. The lower the ratio, the more affordable the housing. Fort Collins' affordability index (4.9) exceeds the national average by a wider margin than either the state or the county. A large student population keeps the city's median income relatively low so this drives up the affordability ratio, at least on paper. It's important to note that most students in this city are renters, so real affordability for permanent residents may actually be better than the data seem to suggest. 18 NOTE: Bubble sizes reflect relative affordability: Fort Collins (4.9), Larimer County (4.5), Colorado (4.3), US average (3.7) SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey, 2009) DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 25 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT INCOME & HOUSING Figure 19: Consumer spending in Fort Collins relative to the US – Extremes reflect age demographics of a college town19 US average = 100 for each spending category ESRI developed metrics based on Census Bureau data to estimate consumer spending rates for various types of household consumption. In the City of Fort Collins, the patterns are straightforward. The presence of CSU drives up household spending rates for education and computer equipment. The city's young student population tends to be healthy and not yet thinking about retirement, a professional wardrobe, or furnishing a new home, so consumer spending is relatively low in these categories. 19 SOURCES: ESRI; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Surveys DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 26 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ECONOMY Figure 20: Average annual unemployment rate, 1990-2011 (%) - Latest 2011 unemployment rate relative to the historical 2-decade range 20 Unemployment rates nationwide rose to record highs during the recent recession and have since inched along toward gradual improvement. In the city of Fort Collins, the overall historical range of unemployment as well as the current rate tend to be slightly higher than Larimer County overall. Some of this is inevitable due to the transient dynamics of a college-age population. Whatever the nuances may be between the city and the county, the city is nevertheless in slightly better shape than either the US or the Colorado state average. 20 NOTE: Because seasonal adjustment is not available for all jurisdictions, none of the rates shown (including comparables) are seasonally adjusted; SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPS (US rate) and LAUS (state & county rates) DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 27 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ECONOMY Figure 21: Unemployment rates compared - City's business cycle has converged more with the US since the tech bust 21 12-month moving average of the seasonally unadjusted jobless rates To put the city's unemployment rate in context, we look back over the past 20 years. The city's unemployment rate hit record lows during the 1990s and never quite regained that edge during the next decade. 21 SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS (state & county rates) DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 28 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ECONOMY Figure 22: The unemployment rolls – Unemployment trends of Fort Collins residents over the past three years22 Monthly unemployment numbers are not seasonally adjusted, so they can only be compared to the same month in the previous year. The recent recession has been one of the most severe in recent memory. This is true in the US as well as in the City of Fort Collins. From mid-2008 to mid-2009, the city's unemployment rolls doubled. Since then, total unemployment has floated seasonally between 6,500 and 8,000. On a rolling 12-month basis, one is able to tease out incremental improvements in the monthly data, but this positive trend is weak and is still hard to see in the raw monthly numbers. 22 NOTE: LAUS survey data reflect local household employment, i.e., the job status of employed residents. This is not the same as the local job base. SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS program. DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 29 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ECONOMY Figure 23: Allocation of the local property tax in recent years - Millage rates of overlapping governments; total rate applicable to most properties within the city 23 Millage rates expressed in one-thousandths. The total mill levy of 86.488 in 2010 equals about 86 cents per $100 valuation. The city's mill levy of 9.797 has remained steady for more than a decade, even as the tax rates applied by other governmental units have fluctuated. 23 SOURCES: City of Fort Collins, 2011-2012 Biennial Budget; Larimer County Assessor's Office DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 30 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ECONOMY Figure 24: Municipal property tax base - Growing much faster than population on a per-resident basis 24 Despite a steady mill levy, the city's rising property values have raised the size of the tax base in total as well as on a per-resident basis. The growth of the tax base on a per- resident basis is particularly important. Over the decade, the property tax base, as measured on a per-resident basis, grew twice as fast as the city's population. 24 SOURCES: Colorado Division of Local Government, Colorado State Data Center (population); City of Fort Collins, 2011-2012 Biennial Budget; Larimer County Assessor's Office (property data) 2000 █████████████████████ 2001 ██████████████████████████ 2002 ███████████████████████████ 2003 ███████████████████████████████ 2004 ████████████████████████████████ 2005 ███████████████████████████████████ 2006 ████████████████████████████████████ 2007 ███████████████████████████████████████ 2008 ████████████████████████████████████████ 2009 █████████████████████████████████████████ 2010 ██████████████████████████████████████████ 2000 █████████████████████████ 2001 ████████████████████████████ 2002 █████████████████████████████ 2003 ██████████████████████████████████ 2004 ██████████████████████████████████ 2005 ████████████████████████████████████ 2006 █████████████████████████████████████ 2007 ███████████████████████████████████████ 2008 ███████████████████████████████████████ 2009 ████████████████████████████████████████ 2010 ████████████████████████████████████████ $7.47 $8.97 $9.32 $12.57 $13.60 $62,928 $72,152 $73,345 $85,387 $86,200 $92,297 $13.91 City's estimated taxable property value Total in US$ billions City's estimated taxable property value On a per-resident basis $14.35 $14.52 $10.97 $11.33 $12.23 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 31 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ECONOMY Figure 25: The major sources of the city’s revenue – Combined sales and use taxes far outweigh property taxes as a revenue source)25 Total annual levies and collections since 1999 (US$ millions) The revenue gains the city enjoyed from rising property values were only a small part of the overall revenue stream. The city actually draws much more of its revenues from sales and use taxes. 25 SOURCES: City of Fort Collins, 2011-2012 Biennial Budget; Larimer County Assessor's Office DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 32 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ECONOMY Figure 26: Allocation of the local sales and use tax in recent years26 While the city's mill levy rate has held steady, the city's sales and use rate rose by 0.85% beginning January 1, 2011. The increase was approved by voters in a November 2010 election. The 0.85% incremental increase will sunset at the end of 2020 unless it is reauthorized by voters. 26 SOURCES: City of Fort Collins, 2011-2012 Biennial Budget DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 33 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ECONOMY Figure 27: Municipal sales and use tax base –Not keeping up with population on a per resident basis27 While the bulk of the city's revenues come from the sales & use tax, this tax base has grown much more slowly than the property tax base over the past decade. While taxable sales increased in total terms between 2000 and 2010, this base barely grew when measured on a per-resident basis. For every 100 residents in 2000, the city added an additional 20 newcomers over the course of the decade, which puts an obvious strain on service delivery. For every $100 of taxable sales per resident in 2000, the city had $101 by 2010. 27 SOURCES: Colorado Division of Local Government, Colorado State Data Center (population); City of Fort Collins, 2011-2012 Biennial Budget (sales & use tax data) 2000 ███████████████████████████████████ 2001 ███████████████████████████████████████ 2002 ███████████████████████████████████████ 2003 ███████████████████████████████████████ 2004 ████████████████████████████████████████ 2005 █████████████████████████████████████████ 2006 ████████████████████████████████████████████ 2007 ████████████████████████████████████████████ 2008 ████████████████████████████████████████████ 2009 ██████████████████████████████████████████ 2010 ███████████████████████████████████████████ 2000 ███████████████████████████████████████████ 2001 █████████████████████████████████████████████ 2002 ████████████████████████████████████████████ 2003 ███████████████████████████████████████████ 2004 ████████████████████████████████████████████ 2005 ████████████████████████████████████████████ 2006 ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 2007 ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 2008 █████████████████████████████████████████████ 2009 ██████████████████████████████████████████ 2010 ███████████████████████████████████████████ City's estimated sales & use tax base On a per-resident basis City's estimated sales & use tax base Total in US$ billions $1.80 $1.98 $1.97 $1.97 $2.02 $2.07 $2.21 $2.25 $2.24 $2.13 $2.19 $15,151 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 34 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ECONOMY Figure 28: Municipal debt burden – Significant improvements on a per resident basis28 For a fast-growing city, Fort Collins enjoys a surprisingly lighter debt burden today than it did a decade ago. The city's debt peaked at $213 million in 2004. In 2010, the city's overall debt was lower than in 2000. On a per- resident basis, the debt burden fell even faster from $1584 per resident in 2000 to just $1243 per resident in 2010. 28 SOURCES: Colorado Division of Local Government, Colorado State Data Center (population); City of Fort Collins, 2011-2012 Biennial Budget (outstanding debt) 2000 █████████████████████████████████████ 2001 █████████████████████████████████████ 2002 █████████████████████████████████████ 2003 ██████████████████████████████████ 2004 ██████████████████████████████████████████ 2005 ███████████████████████████████████████ 2006 ████████████████████████████████████ 2007 █████████████████████████████████ 2008 ████████████████████████████████ 2009 ██████████████████████████████████ 2010 ███████████████████████████████████ 2000 █████████████████████████████████████████████ 2001 ██████████████████████████████████████████ 2002 █████████████████████████████████████████ 2003 ██████████████████████████████████████ 2004 ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 2005 ██████████████████████████████████████████ 2006 ██████████████████████████████████████ 2007 ██████████████████████████████████ 2008 █████████████████████████████████ 2009 ██████████████████████████████████ 2010 ███████████████████████████████████ City's outstanding debt On a per-resident basis City's outstanding debt Total in US$ millions $188 $187 $185 $172 $213 $198 $183 $167 $164 $172 $179 $1,584 $1,505 $1,456 $1,338 $1,620 $1,495 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 35 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ECONOMY Figure 29: Venture capital investments in Colorado– Quarterly VC investment volumes for the state of Colorado by industry, 1995Q1 to 2011Q129 Bubbles sizes reflect the relative dollar value of investments by industry and by quarter The tech boom of the late 1990s brought a wave of venture capital investment into Colorado, especially in telecom, media, network hardware, and software. A decade later, investments in telecom, media, and network hardware are few and far between, but software has continued to pull in a steady stream of capital from one quarter to the next, through both recessions and booms. In recent years, Colorado's energy and biotech activities have caught the attention of investors. Venture capital now flows into these sectors as well. 29 SOURCES: ThomsonReuters; PricewaterhouseCoopers Moneytree Industrial/Energy Biotech Software Financial Services IT Services Electronics/Instrumentation Retailing/Distribution Medical Devices & Equipment Computers & Peripherals Netw orking & Equipment Media & Enertainment Semiconductors Consumer Products & Services Business Products & Services Telecommunication Healthcare Services 1995 Q1… …2011 Q1 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 36 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ECONOMY Figure 30: Start-up & early stage VC investments in Colorado- Start-ups and early stage firms a share (%) of total VC investment volume and total VC deals30 As the tech boom of the late 1990s unraveled, venture capital investors funneled less capital into risky start-ups and early stage companies, preferring instead to focus on more mature investments with better risk/return profiles. By 2006, Colorado's venture capital investments began to shift once again toward start-ups and early-stage companies. Even during the recent recession, capital has continued to flow into young companies at a higher rate than in the first half of the 2000s. Over the past year, at least half of the VC deals completed in Colorado have involved start-up or early-stage companies. 30 SOURCES: ThomsonReuters; PricewaterhouseCoopers Moneytree 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1995 Q4 1996 Q4 1997 Q4 1998 Q4 1999 Q4 2000 Q4 2001 Q4 2002 Q4 2003 Q4 2004 Q4 2005 Q4 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 Share of total $ volume Share of total completed deals DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 37 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ECONOMY Figure 31: The job base in the Fort Collins MSA - Two years of setback but stronger growth in the decade ahead31 Job losses in the current recession have pushed the MSA's employment base in 2010 back down to the levels last seen in mid-2006. EMSI's most recent forecast for the MSA shows employment growth re-igniting in 2012 and then resuming a strong upward trajectory once again. 31 Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.2 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 38 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ECONOMY Figure 32: Job base by industry sector in the Fort Collins MSA, 2010 32 In most urban economies, three sectors typically lead the job market in overall terms—retail trade, healthcare, and government. Because the government sector as measured by EMSI encompasses all public education, including CSU, it leads the MSA's economy as the largest employer. It is the next tier of sectors (after these first three) that often tells us much about a local economy. In some MSAs, it is manufacturing or transportation/ warehousing that ranks high. In boom years, it is sometimes construction. In Fort Collins today, the driver here is professional services. 32 Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.2 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 39 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ECONOMY Figure 33: Job growth by industry sector in the Fort Collins MSA33 This chart compares the MSA's four years of job growth (2003 through 2006) with the subsequent four years when growth was slower or falling (2007 through 2010). On a sector-by-sector basis, it was professional services that drove the economy forward before the recession hit. Since 2007, this sector has held relatively flat. Healthcare has proven highly resilient through the downturn, and a few smaller sectors, including finance/insurance. The brunt of job losses have been absorbed in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Retail trade has also taken a hit. 33 Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.2 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 40 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ECONOMY Figure 34: Fort Collins MSA industry strengths relative to the US34 Location quotient (LQ) analysis  US average for each industry = 1.00  Regional strength > 1.25  Regional weakness <0.75 The property and leasing sector has a high location quotient but this may be due to the presence of CSU which has the potential to generate above-average rental unit turnover. More interesting among the LQs is the high rank of the professional services sector. 34 Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.2 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 41 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ECONOMY Figure 35: Industry sector strengths relative to the US - Location quotients for the Fort Collins MSA at the 5-digit NAICS level35 Based on industries that employed at least 400 workers in the MSA (Larimer County) in 2010 35 Note: NAICS code 334119 (Other Computer Peripheral Equipment Manufacturing) did not employ 400 in 2010, but because its losses since 2001 have been so severe, it was added back into\ the analysis for reference purposes. Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.2 Locaton quotitent descriptions: extremely high (> 3.00) above average (>1.25) average (between 0.75 and 1.25) below average (<0.75) Net Chg Since 2001 Broad sector 3-digit code & description LQ Jobs Avg. Earnings No. of Estabs. Net Job Gain (Loss) Manufacturing 312120 Breweries 32.65 921 $71,574 5 +265 Manufacturing 333618 Other Engine Equipment Manufacturing 27.68 1,208 $61,184 2 +307 Manufacturing 334516 Analytical Laboratory Instrument Manufacturing 20.88 721 $66,132 5 +175 Manufacturing 334515 Instrument Manufacturing for Measuring and Testing Electricity and Electrical Signals 15.26 702 $137,805 10 -1,924 Manufacturing 334111 Electronic Computer Manufacturing 9.52 938 n/a n/a -409 Manufacturing 334418 Printed Circuit Assembly (Electronic Assembly) Manufacturing 9.10 494 $82,852 5 -497 Construction 238122 Nonresidential structural steel and precast concrete contractors 7.65 554 $53,801 8 +201 Administrative services 561422 Telemarketing Bureaus and Other Contact Centers 4.42 1,919 $19,755 17 +1,811 Information & media 511120 Periodical Publishers 4.01 712 $45,177 21 -17 Professional & technical services 541712 Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences (except Biotechnology) 3.50 1,752 $121,444 32 +1,488 Professional & technical services 541620 Environmental Consulting Services 2.76 406 $44,241 50 +141 Healthcare & social assistance 622310 Specialty (except Psychiatric and Substance Abuse) Hospitals 2.64 580 $80,892 1 +580 Property sales & leasing 531190 Lessors of Other Real Estate Property 2.63 575 $41,696 18 +168 Finance & insurance 523910 Miscellaneous Intermediation 2.51 1,007 $24,464 16 +746 Healthcare & social assistance 621399 Offices of All Other Miscellaneous Health Practitioners 2.49 851 $22,151 58 +417 Manufacturing 334413 Semiconductor and Related Device Manufacturing 2.42 481 $91,981 5 +188 Professional & technical services 541940 Veterinary Services 2.38 830 $25,925 75 +156 Property sales & leasing 531130 Lessors of Miniw arehouses and Self-Storage Units 2.34 870 $28,001 23 +446 Construction 238312 Nonresidential drywall contractors 2.18 464 $38,175 9 -70 Retail trade 451110 Sporting Goods Stores 2.09 635 $17,687 62 +56 Government (incl. public ed.) 920000 State government 2.01 11,613 $38,864 21 +438 Professional & technical services 541330 Engineering Services 1.86 2,017 $61,728 202 +28 Arts, entertainment, & recreation 713990 All Other Amusement and Recreation Industries 1.85 481 $13,836 35 +15 Construction 238321 Residential painting contractors 1.81 522 $20,714 68 -70 Retail trade 453310 Used Merchandise Stores 1.81 499 $14,936 26 +114 Construction 238991 All other residential trade contractors 1.80 579 $16,943 45 -1 Retail trade 452910 Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters 1.76 2,206 $22,523 7 +1,639 Retail trade 454390 Other Direct Selling Establishments 1.76 2,042 $5,616 23 +195 Construction 238222 Nonresidential plumbing and HVAC contractors 1.76 1,008 $53,251 36 +70 Professional & technical services 541990 All Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1.74 2,055 $32,411 90 -422 Administrative services 561990 All Other Support Services 1.69 511 $45,357 39 -245 Property sales & leasing 531311 Residential Property Managers 1.67 1,037 $17,811 69 +440 Property sales & leasing 531120 Lessors of Nonresidential Buildings (except Miniw arehouses) 1.65 1,192 $30,894 32 +431 Arts, entertainment, & recreation 711510 Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers 1.63 1,928 $13,029 47 +347 Oil, gas, & mining 211111 Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction 1.63 1,370 $60,141 10 +840 Arts, entertainment, & recreation 713940 Fitness and Recreational Sports Centers 1.59 1,158 $9,420 44 +444 Retail trade 453220 Gift, Novelty, and Souvenir Stores 1.55 487 $15,003 67 -184 Construction 238911 Residential site preparation contractors 1.53 420 $25,965 43 -81 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 42 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT WORKFORCE Figure 36: Two scenarios of job performance: national trends vs. local trends- Employment growth history (2002-2010) and forecast (2011- 2021)36 Dark shading represents the local median; yellow bar represents the national range between the 10th and 90th percentiles. Job growth in the MSA over the past decade outperformed the national average in most years. The MSA's recovery is a little slow, but EMSI forecasts job performance here to pull ahead of the US average in 2012, then regress back toward national trends. 36 Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.2 -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% +0% +1% +2% +3% +4% +5% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 MSA US forecast DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 43 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT WORKFORCE Figure 37: Median hourly wage rate by occupational group- MSA median wage presented in the context of the national wage range37 Circle represents the county median; line represents the national range between the 10th and 90th percentiles Skilled workers in the Fort Collins MSA draw higher salaries than other occupational groups. Engineers, computer scientists, healthcare professionals, attorneys, educators, scientists, and managers command the MSA's highest median wages. At the other end of the spectrum, support workers in food services and property maintenance earn median wages that skirt just above the minimum wage. Engineering professionals are by far the MSA’s best paid occupational group. 37 Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.2 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 44 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT WORKFORCE Figure 38: Fort Collins MSA's 2010 job base by occupational group38 More than one-quarter of the MSA's workers are employed in occupations that involve sales or office administration. This is not an unusual occupational pattern in an urban county. Even though the MSA has a high LQ for professional services, it's notable that the occupational groups that contribute to this sector -- computer specialists, engineers, scientists -- each provide only about 4,000 to 5,000 jobs in the MSA. These are relatively small numbers compared to, say, food service workers who number 13,000. 38Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.2 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 45 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT WORKFORCE Figure 39: Fort Collins MSA's occupational group concentrations- Industries by row; occupations in columns39 Location quotient (LQ) analysis US average for each industry = 1.00 Regional strength > 1.25 Regional weakness <0.75 Even though the MSA supports fewer than 4,000 science-related jobs and 5,000 engineering-related jobs, these occupational groups are large enough to generate relatively high location quotients. 39Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.2 DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 46 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT WORKFORCE Figure 40: Fort Collins MSA's occupational job trends, 2007 through 2010- A wide gap in the types of jobs gained and lost40 The MSA's job performance over the past four years has differed sharply across occupational groups. Blue- collar jobs in construction, production, and transportation have suffered relatively heavy losses. Other occupations have held up well during tough times. Jobs in business, healthcare, management, education, and computers have turned in gains over at least three of the past four years (if not all four). 40Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.2 3-year Net Change +1,771 +1,484 +1,019 +885 +757 +604 +588 +548 +505 +391 +317 +309 +265 +115 +82 +76 +2 -67 -274 -277 -686 -1,176 -2,877 : EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.2 -3,000 -2,500 -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 +0 +500 +1,000 +1,500 +2,000 Construction & extraction DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 47 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Workforce Figure 41: Educational attainment indicates strong local skills availability- Highest level of education achieved by the population age 25 or older41 Educational attainment levels in the Fort Collins MSA are well beyond the state and national averages. Some 41% of the MSA's adult residence have a 4-year degree or higher. In the City of Fort Collins itself the attainment rate is 49%. 41SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey, 2009) no high school diploma high school diploma or GED some college but less than a 4-year degree bachelor's degree or higher USA Colorado Fort Collins City of MSA Fort Collins 15% 28% 29% 28% 11% 23% 31% 36% 7% 20% 32% 41% 6% 15% 30% 49% compare to next exhibit DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 48 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT WORKFORCE Figure 42: …yet the job base in the MSA implies weak demand for skills… The threshold skill level required of the MSA's existing job base42 While the MSA's educational attainment rates are outstanding, the job base is a bit perplexing. According to the American Community Survey, 41% of the MSA's adults age 25 or older hold a 4-year degree or more. Yet an occupational analysis of all the current jobs in the entire MSA in 2011 shows that only 27% require a 4- year degree. Part of this discrepancy can be explained by the mismatched data sources themselves. Educational attainment includes residents of the MSA age 25 or older, regardless of place of employment. The graph above represents the MSA's total job base (including part-time work and work held by those under the age of 25 or those living outside the MSA). This helps explain part of the data discrepancy, but certainly not all. 42SOURCES: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.2 On-the-job training or previous experience Vocational or 2-year degree 4-year degree or higher 2001 2011 2021 25% 65% 9% 27% 62% 11% 28% 12% 60% DRAFT – City of Fort Collins, CO TIP Strategies, Inc. Theory Into Practice 49 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT WORKFORCE Figure 43: …even though some employers struggle to find the skills they need- 147 H1B applications were filed in the City of Fort Collins in FY 201043 43SOURCES: US Department of Labor, Office of Foreign Labor Certification Colorado State University Advanced Energy Industries Certified Avago Technologies US Denied certification Advanced Micro Devices; Centers for Disease Control & Prevention DHHS; Withdrawn before certification Larsen & Toubro; Palladius Certified but later withdrawn USDA Agricultural Research Service; Wipro Cherokee Services Group; LSI Corp; New Century Software; Pacesetter International Apolent Corp; Fujitsu America; HP Enterprise Services; Intellectual Business Resolutions; International Technology Solutions; JSMN International; Object Technology Solutions; One Tribe Creative; Otterbox FCDC; Pelco; Poudre School District; Rocky Mountain Bird Observatory; SRM Technologies Acnovate Corp; AT&T; Ayres Associates; Beckman Coulter; Broadcom Corp; Cambridge Healthcare; Columbus Technologies & Services; Cyber Sphere; DGN Technologies; ESC Engineering; Front Range Community Computer & mathematical science ████████████████████████████ College; Hew lett Packard Company; Mindlance; New Belgium Brewing Life, physical, & social science ████████████████ Company; Nexlink Systems; Punatar; Software Specialists; Sogeti USA Architecture & engineering ████████████ ESAB Group; Tollmar; Turning Point Center for Youth & Family Development; Education, training, & library █████ Vedi Technologies; V-Soft Consulting Group; Zeninfotech Management ███ Business & financial operations ███ Arts, design, & media ██ Healthcare (technical) █ Community & social services █ Sales 5 3 2 1 4 38 7 6 H1B applications by occupational group 56 32 25 10 7 6 5 3 2 1 H1B applications by approval status H1B applications by employer 81% 10% 7% 3% Yet even if Fort Collins suffers from underemployment of existing residents, a few employers still struggle to find the skills they need. In FY 2010, employers seeking to fill vacancies within the City of Fort ATTACHMENT 2 Table 1 Stakeholder List Economic Health Strategic Plan Update Stakeholder Representative City Staff Complete Interview Phone Economic Development Partners NCEDC Kelly Peters X X Fort Collins Area Chamber of Commerce David May X X Larimer County Workforce Center Kathy Dotson X X 498-6600 - Th @ 1:30 Small Business Development Center Donna Beaman (Replacement?) X X 498-9295 - Wed @ 10 Incubation Rocky Mountain Innosphere Ryan Speir X X CSU, Research Innovation Center Dr. Joe Giles X X Engines & Energy Conversion Laboratory Dr. Morgan DeFort X X Colorado State University Cenergy Tim Reeser X X NeoTREX Dr. Terry Opgenorth X X MicroRx Dr. Joe Giles X X Public Relations Emily Wilmsen X X CSURF, Tech Transfer Todd Headley X X CSURF, CSU Management Corp. Mark Wdowik X X City of Fort Collins CPIO Kelly DiMartino & Kim Newcomer X X Economic Health Mike, Josh, Christina, Claire, Megan X X CDNS Steve Dush X Utilities Brian Janonis X Targeted Industry Clusters CCEC Judy Dorsey X X jdorsey@brendlegroup.com CWIC Jeff Throckmorton X X NoCo Bio Ryan Speir X X CETIC Guy Babbitt X X guy.babbit@czero-719-331-9662 Cultural Beet Street Ryan Keiffer X X 419-8240 Be Local Hill Grimmet X X hill@BeLocalNC.o 219-3382 231-1197 Convention & Visitor Bureau Jim Clark X X 232-3840 - Wed @ 1:30 Social Services Fort Collins Housing Authority Julie Brewen X jbrewen@fcgov.co416-2917 Teaching Tree Early Childhood Education Anne Lance X X alance@teaching-t493-2628 The Family Center (childcare) Kimberly Spencer X kimberly@thefamil221-1615 PSD Administration Jerry Wilson X X jerryw@psdschools490-3607 United Way Gordan Thibedeau X gthibedeau@uway407-7002 Larimer County Health & Human Services ?? Front Range Community College Lynn Vossler X Business Associations NFCBA Greg Woods X X gwoods@fortcollin 488-2610 DBA Michael Short X X 484-6500 SFCBA Jim Palmer X X DDA Matt Robenault mrobenalt@fcgov. 419-4381 Others Save the Poudre Gary Wockner X gary.wockner@savethepoudre.org Bike Coop Rick Price X ri...@experienceplus.com Major Private Employers C-Level / As High as Possible TIP Strategies 7/6/2011 1 ECONOMIC HEALTH STRATEGIC PLAN City Council Workshop July 12, 2011 City of Fort Collins, Colorado 1 Agenda  Project update  Findings from the Assessment  SWOT  Benchmarks  Discussion 2 ATTACHMENT 3 7/6/2011 2 3 project update Progress to date  Discovery fieldwork complete  Review of previous reports & studies  Stakeholder interviews & focus groups  Communications survey  Drafts of economic assessment & SWOT complete 4 7/6/2011 3 MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC Discovery Opportunity Implementation Final Project timeline Kick-off, stakeholder interviews, assessments, benchmarking, SWOT Finalize strategies, action items, implementation, budget, measures, etc. Guiding principles, preliminary opportunity identification, Austin visit Roll-out We are here. 5 Next steps  Deliverables (end of July ‘11)  Marketing assessment  Entrepreneurship assessment  Target industry profiles  Next trips  Mid-August: presentation of communications assessment & opportunities workshop  October: Fort Collins team to visit Austin 6 7/6/2011 4 7 assessment County becoming more urbanized 8 7/6/2011 5 Migration drives population growth 9 Net importer of labor inbound (net commuting into Fort Collins) outbound (net commuting out of Fort Collins) +1,200 +1,200 +1,000 +1,000 +800 +800 +600 +600 +400 +400 +200 +200 0 0 -200 -200 -400 -400 -600 -600 -800 -800 -1,000 -1,000 -1,200 -1,200 -1,400 -1,400 -1,600 -1,600 -1,800 -1,800 -2,000 -2,000 City of City of City of City of City of City of City of Denver Boulder Westminster Longmont Laporte Wellington City of Colorado Loveland Windsor Colorado Colorado Colorado Colorado Colorado Colorado Colorado 2002 2009 2002 2009 2002 2009 2002 2009 2002 2009 2002 2009 2002 2009 2002 2009 Net daily commuter flow between City of Fort Collins and other cities SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Local Employment Dynamics (LED) database, 2002-2009 10 7/6/2011 6 College town dynamics Household comparison Household size, income, and housing stock Household profile Persons per HH Median HH income Median home value Affordability ratio* HH income distrib. <$25,000 █████████████████ ██████████████ ████████████████ ████████████████████ $25,000-$50,000 █████████████████ ████████████████ ███████████████ █████████████ $50,000-$75,000 ████████████ █████████████ █████████████ ████████████ $75,000-$100,000 ████████ █████████ █████████ █████████ >$100,000 █████████████ ███████████████ ██████████████ █████████████ Housing stock Occupied Vacant Age of housing stock Built since 2000 █████████ ███████████ ██████████████ ████████████ 1980-1999 ███████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████████████████ █████████████████████████████ 1960-1979 ███████████████████ █████████████████████ ████████████████████ ███████████████████ WWII-1959 ███████████ ███████ ████ ████ Built pre-WWII █████████ ██████ ████ ████ *NOTE: The affordability ratio is the median home value divided by the median household income. The "ratio" equates the home prices to raw earning potential (expressed in years of gross income needed to pay for the home). The lower the number, the more affordable the housing. Median household income for the 9-county region is an average of the counties weighted by the number of households. Median home prices in each county are weighted by the number of occupied housing units to estimate the 9-county median. SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau (American Community Survey, 2009) 17% 11% 7% 6% 14%9%7%6% 28% 32% 37% 42% 28% 31% 29% 28% 13% 17% 21% 18% 13% 12% 10% 6% 87% 88% 90% 94% 20% 23% 21% 19% 18% 19% 19% 18% 12% 13% 14% 14% 25% 21% 24% 30% 25% 24% 22% 20% $248,500 3.7 4.3 4.5 4.9 USA Colorado Larimer County Fort Collins 2.63 2.57 2.45 2.39 $50,221 $55,430 $55,676 $50,652 $185,200 $237,800 $248,200 11 Fort Collins MSA industry strengths relative to the US Location quotient analysis US average for each industry = 1.00 regional strength > 1.25 regional weakness < 0.75 Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.2 ABOVE AVERAGE BELOW 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 7/6/2011 7 Industries – strengths, gainers & losers 13 extremely high (> 3.00) above average (>1.25) average (between 0.75 and 1.25) below average (<0.75) NAICS Classification Net Chg Since 2001 3-digit code & description LQ Jobs Avg. Earnings No. of Estabs. Net Job Gain (Loss) 312120 Breweries 32.65 921 $71,574 5 +265 333618 Other Engine Equipment Manufacturing 27.68 1,208 $61,184 2 +307 334516 Analytical Laboratory Instrument Manufacturing 20.88 721 $66,132 5 +175 334515 Instrument Manufacturing for Measuring and Testing Electricity and Elect 15.26 702 $137,805 10 -1,924 334111 Electronic Computer Manufacturing 9.52 938 n/a n/a -409 930000 Local government 0.86 13,386 $41,391 49 +1,880 561422 Telemarketing Bureaus and Other Contact Centers 4.42 1,919 $19,755 17 +1,811 622110 General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 0.92 4,395 $34,593 3 +1,687 452910 Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters 1.76 2,206 $22,523 7 +1,639 541712 Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Scien 3.50 1,752 $121,444 32 +1,488 334119 Other Computer Peripheral Equipment Manufacturing* 1.32 55 n/a n/a -3,292 452112 Discount Department Stores 0.69 709 $15,447 10 -998 236115 New Single-Family Housing Construction (except Operative Builders) 0.97 573 $57,065 129 -910 561320 Temporary Help Services 0.74 1,642 $25,937 52 -852 334418 Printed Circuit Assembly (Electronic Assembly) Manufacturing 9.10 494 $82,852 5 -497 Level in 2010 The threshold skill level required of the MSA's existing job base On-the-job training or previous experience Vocational or 2-year degree 4-year degree or higher 2001 2011 2021 25% 65% 9% 27% 62% 11% 28% 12% 60% Education versus occupational skill level Highest level of education achieved by the population age 25 or older no high school diploma high school diploma or GED some college but less than a 4-year degree bachelor's degree or higher USA Colorado Fort Collins City of MSA Fort Collins 15% 28% 29% 28% 11% 23% 7/6/2011 8 15 SWOT Why SWOT analysis matters state/region national global local Degree of control SHAPE TRENDS FOLLOW TRENDS 16 7/6/2011 9 17 18benchmarks 7/6/2011 10 How do you want to benchmark?  By similarity?  size, infrastructure, demography  By aspiration?  role models  By competition?  competing industry clusters 3 APPROACHES YIELD 3 VERY DIFFERENT RESULTS Which is best for Fort Collins? 19 Possible Benchmarks  College Towns  Corvallis, OR  Charlottesville, VA  Davis, CA  Boulder, CO  Aspirational  Research Triangle, NC  Austin, TX  Freiburg, Germany  Recreational Getaways  Asheville, NC  Bend, OR  Flagstaff, AZ  Jackson Hole, WY  Bozeman, MT  St. George, UT 20 7/6/2011 11 THANK YOU TIP Strategies, Inc. 106 East 6th Street, Suite 550 Austin, Texas 78701 512.343.9113 www.tipstrategies.com 31% 36% 7% 20% 32% 41% 6% 15% 30% 49% 14 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 Corporate & regional HQs Utilities Transportation & warehousing Wholesale trade Educational services (excl. public ed.) Agriculture, forestry, & fishing Personal & other services Manufacturing Finance & insurance Healthcare & social assistance Information & media Administrative services Government (incl. public ed.) Retail trade Restaurants, bars, & hotels Oil, gas, & mining Construction Arts, entertainment, & recreation Professional & technical services Property sales & leasing 12 Collins filed 147 applications for H1B visas for their employees. About 4 of every 5 applications were approved. Most were in fields relating to computers, science, or education. CSU filed the most applications (which includes things like post-doc work) but many of these H1B applications came from high tech companies looking to fill local jobs. Production Transportation & material moving Architecture & engineering Installation, maintenance, & repair Science Farming, fishing, & forestry Food preparation & serving Legal Military Property maintenance Protective service Community & social services Arts, design, & media Computer & mathematical science Healthcare (support) Education, training, & library Office & administrative support Personal care & service Sales Management Healthcare (technical) Business & financial operations 2007 2008 2009 2010 Information & media 518210 Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services 1.52 526 $40,529 17 +334 Finance & insurance 522292 Real Estate Credit 1.41 403 $61,713 17 +252 Property sales & leasing 531390 Other Activities Related to Real Estate 1.38 1,792 $11,884 10 +686 Professional & technical services 541690 Other Scientific and Technical Consulting Services 1.35 471 $39,855 54 +277 Personal & other services 811490 Other Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance 1.32 418 $20,464 14 +27 Manufacturing 334119 Other Computer Peripheral Equipment Manufacturing* 1.32 55 n/a n/a -3,292 Restaurants, bars, & hotels 722410 Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) 1.30 585 $15,319 44 -170 Restaurants, bars, & hotels 722110 Full-Service Restaurants 1.29 6,423 $15,442 243 +579 Property sales & leasing 531210 Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers 1.29 2,942 $11,746 187 +888 Transportation & warehousing 493110 General Warehousing and Storage 1.28 855 $35,211 8 -117 Professional & technical services 541219 Other Accounting Services 1.27 761 $16,874 72 +174 Restaurants, bars, & hotels 721110 Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and Motels 1.26 2,029 $20,756 88 +293 Restaurants, bars, & hotels 722213 Snack and Nonalcoholic Beverage Bars 1.26 672 $11,928 67 +68 Administrative services 561730 Landscaping Services 1.25 1,477 $21,203 148 +352 Professional & technical services 541511 Custom Computer Programming Services 1.25 1,132 $69,565 158 +357 Construction 236220 Commercial and Institutional Building Construction 1.25 833 $60,252 71 -137 Professional & technical services 541512 Computer Systems Design Services 1.24 1,137 $59,985 199 +346 Healthcare & social assistance 623312 Homes for the Elderly 1.24 518 $18,622 22 +157 Personal & other services 812112 Beauty Salons 1.23 867 $24,486 89 +233 Retail trade 443112 Radio, Television, and Other Electronics Stores 1.22 452 $26,357 33 +49 Construction 238221 Residential plumbing and HVAC contractors 1.17 619 $36,957 126 -470 Healthcare & social assistance 621340 Offices of Physical, Occupational and Speech Therapists, and Audiologists 1.16 475 $27,706 45 +218 Finance & insurance 523930 Investment Advice 1.14 1,289 $17,190 38 +689 Retail trade 444110 Home Centers 1.12 778 $27,132 10 +175 Healthcare & social assistance 621210 Offices of Dentists 1.11 1,073 $42,506 173 +252 Finance & insurance 523920 Portfolio Management 1.11 1,053 $26,232 14 +595 Restaurants, bars, & hotels 722211 Limited-Service Restaurants 1.08 4,150 $12,175 238 +755 Property sales & leasing 531110 Lessors of Residential Buildings and Dw ellings 1.06 1,460 $20,950 57 +108 Finance & insurance 523120 Securities Brokerage 1.06 531 $69,599 54 +186 Construction 236118 Residential Remodelers 1.05 608 $52,797 104 +147 Personal & other services 811111 General Automotive Repair 1.05 514 $36,012 83 +36 Construction 238912 Nonresidential site preparation contractors 1.04 459 $31,109 19 -71 Personal & other services 812990 All Other Personal Services 1.03 499 $28,472 16 +42 Healthcare & social assistance 621111 Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists) 1.02 2,795 $70,454 161 +633 Finance & insurance 524210 Insurance Agencies and Brokerages 1.01 1,252 $30,444 160 +266 Professional & technical services 541611 Administrative Management and General Management Consulting Services 1.00 850 $35,232 101 +431 Retail trade 441110 New Car Dealers 0.98 959 $46,539 12 -110 Construction 236115 New Single-Family Housing Construction (except Operative Builders) 0.97 573 $57,065 129 -910 Finance & insurance 522110 Commercial Banking 0.96 1,388 $45,516 91 +231 Healthcare & social assistance 624120 Services for the Elderly and Persons w ith Disabilities 0.96 781 $17,957 17 +457 Administrative services 561720 Janitorial Services 0.94 1,867 $9,982 87 +249 Healthcare & social assistance 622110 General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 0.92 4,395 $34,593 3 +1,687 Personal & other services 813110 Religious Organizations 0.88 1,814 $14,472 3 +379 Healthcare & social assistance 623110 Nursing Care Facilities 0.87 1,596 $27,328 14 +274 Government (incl. public ed.) 930000 Local government 0.86 13,386 $41,391 49 +1,880 Government (incl. public ed.) 911000 Federal government, civilian, except postal service 0.85 2,104 $76,215 32 +389 Professional & technical services 541211 Offices of Certified Public Accountants 0.85 419 $41,898 101 +105 NAICS Classification Level in 2010 Locaton quotitent descriptions: extremely high (> 3.00) above average (>1.25) average (between 0.75 and 1.25) below average (<0.75) Net Chg Since 2001 Broad sector 3-digit code & description LQ Jobs Avg. Earnings No. of Estabs. Net Job Gain (Loss) Manufacturing 312120 Breweries 32.65 921 $71,574 5 +265 Manufacturing 333618 Other Engine Equipment Manufacturing 27.68 1,208 $61,184 2 +307 Manufacturing 334516 Analytical Laboratory Instrument Manufacturing 20.88 721 $66,132 5 +175 Manufacturing 334515 Instrument Manufacturing for Measuring and Testing Electricity and Electrical Signals 15.26 702 $137,805 10 -1,924 Manufacturing 334111 Electronic Computer Manufacturing 9.52 938 n/a n/a -409 Manufacturing 334418 Printed Circuit Assembly (Electronic Assembly) Manufacturing 9.10 494 $82,852 5 -497 Construction 238122 Nonresidential structural steel and precast concrete contractors 7.65 554 $53,801 8 +201 Administrative services 561422 Telemarketing Bureaus and Other Contact Centers 4.42 1,919 $19,755 17 +1,811 Information & media 511120 Periodical Publishers 4.01 712 $45,177 21 -17 Professional & technical services 541712 Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences (except Biotechnology) 3.50 1,752 $121,444 32 +1,488 Professional & technical services 541620 Environmental Consulting Services 2.76 406 $44,241 50 +141 Healthcare & social assistance 622310 Specialty (except Psychiatric and Substance Abuse) Hospitals 2.64 580 $80,892 1 +580 Property sales & leasing 531190 Lessors of Other Real Estate Property 2.63 575 $41,696 18 +168 Finance & insurance 523910 Miscellaneous Intermediation 2.51 1,007 $24,464 16 +746 Healthcare & social assistance 621399 Offices of All Other Miscellaneous Health Practitioners 2.49 851 $22,151 58 +417 Manufacturing 334413 Semiconductor and Related Device Manufacturing 2.42 481 $91,981 5 +188 Professional & technical services 541940 Veterinary Services 2.38 830 $25,925 75 +156 Property sales & leasing 531130 Lessors of Miniw arehouses and Self-Storage Units 2.34 870 $28,001 23 +446 Construction 238312 Nonresidential drywall contractors 2.18 464 $38,175 9 -70 Retail trade 451110 Sporting Goods Stores 2.09 635 $17,687 62 +56 Government (incl. public ed.) 920000 State government 2.01 11,613 $38,864 21 +438 Professional & technical services 541330 Engineering Services 1.86 2,017 $61,728 202 +28 Arts, entertainment, & recreation 713990 All Other Amusement and Recreation Industries 1.85 481 $13,836 35 +15 Construction 238321 Residential painting contractors 1.81 522 $20,714 68 -70 Retail trade 453310 Used Merchandise Stores 1.81 499 $14,936 26 +114 Construction 238991 All other residential trade contractors 1.80 579 $16,943 45 -1 Retail trade 452910 Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters 1.76 2,206 $22,523 7 +1,639 Retail trade 454390 Other Direct Selling Establishments 1.76 2,042 $5,616 23 +195 Construction 238222 Nonresidential plumbing and HVAC contractors 1.76 1,008 $53,251 36 +70 Professional & technical services 541990 All Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1.74 2,055 $32,411 90 -422 Administrative services 561990 All Other Support Services 1.69 511 $45,357 39 -245 Property sales & leasing 531311 Residential Property Managers 1.67 1,037 $17,811 69 +440 Property sales & leasing 531120 Lessors of Nonresidential Buildings (except Miniw arehouses) 1.65 1,192 $30,894 32 +431 Arts, entertainment, & recreation 711510 Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers 1.63 1,928 $13,029 47 +347 Oil, gas, & mining 211111 Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction 1.63 1,370 $60,141 10 +840 Arts, entertainment, & recreation 713940 Fitness and Recreational Sports Centers 1.59 1,158 $9,420 44 +444 Retail trade 453220 Gift, Novelty, and Souvenir Stores 1.55 487 $15,003 67 -184 Construction 238911 Residential site preparation contractors 1.53 420 $25,965 43 -81 Information & media 518210 Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services 1.52 526 $40,529 17 +334 Finance & insurance 522292 Real Estate Credit 1.41 403 $61,713 17 +252 Property sales & leasing 531390 Other Activities Related to Real Estate 1.38 1,792 $11,884 10 +686 Professional & technical services 541690 Other Scientific and Technical Consulting Services 1.35 471 $39,855 54 +277 Personal & other services 811490 Other Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance 1.32 418 $20,464 14 +27 Manufacturing 334119 Other Computer Peripheral Equipment Manufacturing* 1.32 55 n/a n/a -3,292 Restaurants, bars, & hotels 722410 Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) 1.30 585 $15,319 44 -170 Restaurants, bars, & hotels 722110 Full-Service Restaurants 1.29 6,423 $15,442 243 +579 Property sales & leasing 531210 Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers 1.29 2,942 $11,746 187 +888 Transportation & warehousing 493110 General Warehousing and Storage 1.28 855 $35,211 8 -117 Professional & technical services 541219 Other Accounting Services 1.27 761 $16,874 72 +174 Restaurants, bars, & hotels 721110 Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and Motels 1.26 2,029 $20,756 88 +293 Restaurants, bars, & hotels 722213 Snack and Nonalcoholic Beverage Bars 1.26 672 $11,928 67 +68 Administrative services 561730 Landscaping Services 1.25 1,477 $21,203 148 +352 Professional & technical services 541511 Custom Computer Programming Services 1.25 1,132 $69,565 158 +357 Construction 236220 Commercial and Institutional Building Construction 1.25 833 $60,252 71 -137 Professional & technical services 541512 Computer Systems Design Services 1.24 1,137 $59,985 199 +346 Healthcare & social assistance 623312 Homes for the Elderly 1.24 518 $18,622 22 +157 Personal & other services 812112 Beauty Salons 1.23 867 $24,486 89 +233 Retail trade 443112 Radio, Television, and Other Electronics Stores 1.22 452 $26,357 33 +49 Construction 238221 Residential plumbing and HVAC contractors 1.17 619 $36,957 126 -470 Healthcare & social assistance 621340 Offices of Physical, Occupational and Speech Therapists, and Audiologists 1.16 475 $27,706 45 +218 Finance & insurance 523930 Investment Advice 1.14 1,289 $17,190 38 +689 Retail trade 444110 Home Centers 1.12 778 $27,132 10 +175 Healthcare & social assistance 621210 Offices of Dentists 1.11 1,073 $42,506 173 +252 Finance & insurance 523920 Portfolio Management 1.11 1,053 $26,232 14 +595 Restaurants, bars, & hotels 722211 Limited-Service Restaurants 1.08 4,150 $12,175 238 +755 Property sales & leasing 531110 Lessors of Residential Buildings and Dw ellings 1.06 1,460 $20,950 57 +108 Finance & insurance 523120 Securities Brokerage 1.06 531 $69,599 54 +186 Construction 236118 Residential Remodelers 1.05 608 $52,797 104 +147 Personal & other services 811111 General Automotive Repair 1.05 514 $36,012 83 +36 Construction 238912 Nonresidential site preparation contractors 1.04 459 $31,109 19 -71 Personal & other services 812990 All Other Personal Services 1.03 499 $28,472 16 +42 Healthcare & social assistance 621111 Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists) 1.02 2,795 $70,454 161 +633 Finance & insurance 524210 Insurance Agencies and Brokerages 1.01 1,252 $30,444 160 +266 Professional & technical services 541611 Administrative Management and General Management Consulting Services 1.00 850 $35,232 101 +431 Retail trade 441110 New Car Dealers 0.98 959 $46,539 12 -110 Construction 236115 New Single-Family Housing Construction (except Operative Builders) 0.97 573 $57,065 129 -910 Finance & insurance 522110 Commercial Banking 0.96 1,388 $45,516 91 +231 Healthcare & social assistance 624120 Services for the Elderly and Persons w ith Disabilities 0.96 781 $17,957 17 +457 Administrative services 561720 Janitorial Services 0.94 1,867 $9,982 87 +249 Healthcare & social assistance 622110 General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 0.92 4,395 $34,593 3 +1,687 Personal & other services 813110 Religious Organizations 0.88 1,814 $14,472 3 +379 Healthcare & social assistance 623110 Nursing Care Facilities 0.87 1,596 $27,328 14 +274 Government (incl. public ed.) 930000 Local government 0.86 13,386 $41,391 49 +1,880 Government (incl. public ed.) 911000 Federal government, civilian, except postal service 0.85 2,104 $76,215 32 +389 Professional & technical services 541211 Offices of Certified Public Accountants 0.85 419 $41,898 101 +105 NAICS Classification Level in 2010 $1,243 $1,355 $1,215 $1,171 $1,204 19.6% -20.3% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Cumulative annual growth rates of the city's population, 2001-2010 Cumulative annual growth rates of the city's outstanding debt on a per- resident basis, 2001-2010 $15,925 $15,475 $15,323 $15,403 $15,656 $15,228 $16,338 $16,355 $15,963 $14,897 19.6% 1.1% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Cumulative annual growth rates of the city's population, 2001-2010 Cumulative annual growth rates of the city's sales & use tax base on a per- resident basis, 2001-2010 $93,078 $98,949 $99,306 $100,429 $100,845 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Cumulative annual growth rates of the city's population, 2001- 2010 Cumulative annual growth rates of the city's sales & use tax base on a per- resident basis, 2001-2010 Channel. They listen to country, soft rock, and contemporary hit radio. Metropolitans residents are no different from other owners of older homes who incur costs for maintenance and remodeling. They will contract for lawn maintenance and professional housecleaning services. Many will own or lease a station wagon. Planning for the future, residents own shares in investment funds, contribute to IRA savings accounts, and hold large life insurance policies. These residents pursue an active, urbane lifestyle. They travel frequently for business and pleasure. They listen to jazz, classical, public, and alternative music radio. They go to rock concerts, watch foreign films on DVD, read women’s fashion magazines, and play a musical instrument. They also practice yoga and go kayaking, hiking/backpacking, and water and snow skiing. Active members of their communities, Metropolitans residents join civic clubs, volunteer for environmental causes, address public meetings, and work for a political party or candidate. They also belong to business clubs and contribute to PBS. They prefer to own and use a laptop computer, preferably an Apple. They go online daily to download music and buy books, airline tickets, CDs, and clothes. They also order merchandise by mail or over the phone. Most residents live in new single-family housing; more than half the housing units were built in the last 10 years. Home ownership is at 83 percent. The median home value is $175,637. Residents of Metropolitans neighborhoods live in an eclectic mix of single-family homes and multiunit buildings. Sixty percent of the housing units were built before 1960. The home ownership rate is 60 percent, and the median home value is $192,372. 15 *NOTE: ESRI defines the US population into 65 market or "tapestry" segments. According to ESRI, these are the three segments that most closely fit Fort Collins residents (text verbatim from ESRI). SOURCES: ESRI 2009 1989 2008 educated workforce proximity to Denver regional ED collaboration with Denver, Boulder, climate Colorado Springs? change unstable commodity markets immigration restrictions political instability and regional growth disparities progressive utilities limited state influence on marketing of raw land? ?? ?? state / region national / international local sluggish growth in US economy, high unemployment lack of available high quality office space US is a low-risk, high-transparency investment destination commercial growth going to surrounding communities? aging commercial corridors in the shadow of Boulder access to capital innovation infrastructure CSU retention of incubator graduates Old Town federal deficit & downward pressure on ED and R&D funding higher education funding investment in alternative energy environmental stewardship? support for independent business & arts align tourism & ED? support for emerging clusters