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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOUNCIL - AGENDA ITEM - 06/24/2014 - LONG TERM FINANCIAL PLANNING PROCESSDATE: STAFF: June 24, 2014 Mike Beckstead, Chief Financial Officer WORK SESSION ITEM City Council SUBJECT FOR DISCUSSION Long Term Financial Planning Process. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this item is to respond to Council’s request for a Long Term Financial Plan (LTFP). Prior to launching a LTFP process, staff is seeking clarity and agreement on the process scope of work for an LTFP and the timing of when this effort should be completed. The potential methodologies for performing an LTFP are quite varied in their resource requirements. This topic was reviewed with the Council Finance Committee (CFC) in May 2014 and the CFC supported the proposed process. GENERAL DIRECTION SOUGHT AND SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED 1. Does the Council support using the improved “5-Line” approach? 2. Does the Council want this work completed in 2014 or should it occur in 2015 as part of the next Strategic Plan? BACKGROUND / DISCUSSION Staff has historically performed what is called a 5-Line review of major funds during BFO and expanded this process to 5 year forecast as part of the recent City Strategic Plan process. In assessing the best methodology to use to complete a LTFP, staff considered two options; 1. an in-depth forecast across all funds and Service Areas within the City that would require significant coordination and resource commitments across the entire organization. or 2. an expanded and improved “5-Line” analysis that aligns with Government Finance Officers Association (GFOA) recommendations. The proposed process for this new project is built on recommendations by the President of GFOA, improves on the current “5-Line” analysis and takes an approach which can be completed within the current fiscal year with existing resources or can be completed in 2015 as input into the 2016 Strategic Planning process. Staff recommends the improved “5-Line” approach. Staff recently completed a 5-year forecast using the current 5-Line methodology as part of the 2015-2016 Strategic Plan reviewed with Council on March 25, 2014 (the results are summarized on the attached pages from the Strategic Plan). Therefore, staff recommends completing the LTFP in late 2015 as an input into the 2017-2018 Strategic Plan. ATTACHMENTS 1. 2015-16 Strategic Plan Pages 63-65 (PDF) 2. Powerpoint presentation (PPTX) CITY OF FORT COLLINS 2015-16 STRATEGIC PLAN © COPYRIGHT CITY OF FORT COLLINS, 2014. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 63 STRATEGIC FINANCIAL PLAN – 5-YEAR LOOK Five-Line Fund Analysis Process: As part of the City’s bi-annual Strategic Planning Process, finance staff develops a Five- Line Review of the major funds across the City. The term Five-Line is used because the analysis focuses on five distinct elements of each fund – beginning fund balance, revenue, expenditures, minimum fund balance requirements, and ending fund balance. The objective of the review is to identify the overall health of the City’s major funds relative to available revenue and desired expenditures. The department is responsible for a fund reviews past, present, and projected revenues and expenditures to develop a five-year forecast for how revenues match up with expenditures, and how it will affect the ending fund balance. Due to the uniqueness of each fund, various assumptions and adjustments are applied accordingly to get a more realistic and futuristic view of forecasted fund performance to compare projected fund balances to minimum fund balance policies. This analysis of forecasted fund performance is one of the key financial inputs to the City’s Strategic Planning process. From a high-level view, this analysis can quickly assess ongoing operations, any expenditure/revenue concerns, or any events that may be occurring that would impact fund performance in an effort to have any potential issues with fund balance included in the strategic plan. Assumptions for years 2014-2018: • Expenses are assumed a 2% inflationary increase each year based on information available on federal government websites. • Revenue projections vary from fund to fund based on each unique revenue stream. • Minimum fund balances are set at the following: o 5% for majority of the funds including Water, Wastewater, and Stormwater o 8% for Light and Power o General Fund takes 1/6th of the next year’s total operating expenses CITY OF FORT COLLINS 2015-16 STRATEGIC PLAN 64 © COPYRIGHT CITY OF FORT COLLINS, 2014. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. List of Funds Analyzed: General Recreation Transportation Water Benefits Golf Transit Wastewater Self Insurance Cultural Services Natural Areas Stormwater Conservation Trust Museum Light & Power Utilities Customer Service & Admin Executive Summary The majority of the City’s funds are healthy in that expenditure growth is equal to or less than revenue growth. Sales tax revenue has been growing at a healthy rate of 4-5.5% over the past three years. Use tax and development review fee revenue has been at an all-time high level. Property tax revenue has been flat for the last three years, but is anticipated to begin growing at the historic rate of 3-4% a year. As such, modest growth in revenue of 2-3% is conservatively assumed. It is anticipated expenditures can be managed within this available revenue while continuing to meet citizen expectations and current service levels. Four funds have an increasing service level requirement that cannot be met based on current revenue forecasts, or have expiring revenue sources that must be managed in the near term. The Golf and Transit funds demonstrate that revenues cannot support service requirements. Capital requirements to maintain the City’s Golf assets exceed the current revenue generated within the Golf Fund. The need for increased Transit operations is a growing priority within the community. Additional funding will be required to expand evening and weekend service, and to improve headways. Both the Transportation Fund and Natural Areas have risks associated with expiring tax rates. Additional General Fund funding is anticipated as a result of a new intergovernmental agreement with Poudre Fire Authority and policy changes to the use of Conservation Trust revenue. Lastly, there are various risks that need to be addressed, such as renewals of Street Maintenance and Capital ¼-cents in 2015, as well as potential litigation and settlement of the oil and gas moratorium. Status of Funds Healthy Funds: 1. General Fund • Expenditure growth in line with revenue projections 2. Benefits Fund • Impact of Health Care reform is uncertain 3. Self Insurance • Impact of oil and gas litigation is uncertain 4. All Utility Funds (Light & Power, Water, Wastewater, Stormwater, Utilities CS&A • Fluctuations in fund balance primarily driven by capital projects 5. Cultural Services, Recreation, and Conservation Trust CITY OF FORT COLLINS 2015-16 STRATEGIC PLAN © COPYRIGHT CITY OF FORT COLLINS, 2014. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 65 Funds to Watch: 1. Golf Fund • Declining Revenue not keeping up with O & M • Long-term capital needs cannot be funded from current revenues • Debt will be paid off in 2018 and 2021 reducing expenses by about $200K each year 2. Transit Fund • General Fund accounts for 62% of Transfort’s revenue budget • At current projections, operating deficit will begin in 2016 and subsequent years • MAX’s true operating and revenue dollars are unknown • Expect increasing demand for more East-West Routes and Sunday service • Fixed-route bus replacement and other capital needs is approx. $5.7M in 2015 3. Transportation Fund • Expiring ¼-cent sales tax - $7M in annual revenue for streets maintenance 4. Natural Areas Fund • County Tax is scheduled to Expire 2018 • Conservation Trust - 5. Museum Fund • New fund with minimal fund balance. The Museum loses $200k per year of funding from BOB beginning in 2016; current revenues are not sufficient to replace the lost revenue. Other Funding Issues Police Training? • Funding for a joint Police training facility with Loveland is in the preliminary stages. Costs for the facility range from $16M to $28M. Annual debt service requirements are in development. Poudre Fire Authority (PFA) • Revision to the intergovernmental agreement (IGA) will require additional funding to PFA • Escalation adjustment will be applied in years 2015-2018 to avoid large, up front catch-up costs Conservation Trust • The return of Conservation Trust funding to building trails will require approximately $735K in additional General Fund funding • Community push for earlier trail completion Tax Renewals/Needs • Capital Improvement and Pavement Management ¼-cent taxes due to expire in 2015 • Renewal of KFCG at some level 1 Long Term Financial Planning Process June 24, 2014 2 Direction Requested Council Agreement on Work Scope and Deliverable Timing of Long Term Financial Planning (LTFP) 3 Desired Outcome – Why Do It • Facilitate “Strategic Thinking” Around the City’s Financial Future • Improve Staff & Council Knowledge & Awareness of Long Term Macro Financial Influencers, Trends and Issues • Identify Areas of Focus and Initiatives to Maintain the Fiscal Health of the City 4 Current Long Term Planning Efforts • 5-Line Forecast as part of BFO started in 2005 • For each Major Fund looking out 2 years of BFO 1. Beginning Balance 2. Revenue 3. Expenses 4. Change 5. Ending Balance • Expanded 5-Line Process as part of the 2014 Strategic Plan • Forecast 5 years – 2014 thru 2018 vs. 2 years • Results & Findings Summarized in the Strategic Plan 5 Strategic Financial Plan Summarized • Findings & Issues: • Funds are Healthy - need to match expenditure growth with revenue. • Transit revenue does not support expanding service needs • Golf revenue does not support long term capital replacement needs • Expiring Tax Rates impact Revenue: • Street Maintenance – 2015 • Capital (Building on Basics) – 2015 • PFA IGA & replacing Conservation Trust funding of trails with General Fund will put stress on the General Fund • Impact of Health Care Reform and Oil & Gas litigation is uncertain Expanded 5-Line Process Provided Key Insights to Macro Financial Issues & Concerns • County Natural Area – 2019 • Keep Fort Collins Great - 2020 6 Staff’s Initial Approach to LTFP In depth, intricate and complicated process: • Revenue • O&M Expense • Capital Needs • Balance • Debt By Fund By Service Area By Revenue Type By Expense Type Challenges: Resource Intensive across the Organization 7 Staff Research Discussion with Bob Eichem - Boulder CFO • President of Government Financial Officers Association (GFOA) • LTFP Trainer Recommendation: • Simplify – high level • Prioritize Funds • Use model appropriately • Not an answer – directional indicator Keep it Simple and Keep it High Level … Provides a Directional Indicator of Issues & Concerns 8 LTFP - Proposed Scope Long Term Financial Planning Scope: • Leverage current “5-line” process – with improvements • Additional improvements: a. longer term time horizon 10 years b. deeper dive into revenue and expense line items c. growth rates by revenue and expense line items d. Dedicated taxes sunset scenarios • Utilize within 2016 Strategic Planning Process a. Ideal time to do this would be summer of 2015 in advance of the 2016 Strategic Plan Process Leverage an Existing Process with Improvements…. LTFP Should be an Input to the Strategic Plan Process 9 Funds: Ø General Fund Ø KFCG Ø Natural Areas Ø Transportation ØTransit ØCultural Services & Museum ØRecreation & Golf ØNatural Areas Revenue: • Sales & Use Tax • Property Tax • Dedicated Taxes • Other Major Rev • Sunset Scenarios Expenses: • Alignment with MOR / JDE Salaries& Wages Benefits Overtime Professional & Tech Services Property Services Other Services Supplies Purchase Power Travel, Training & Education LTFP - Proposed Scope Capital: • On-going / Maintenance 10 Issues Staff Will Resolve • Key funds only – Funds to Include • Utilities Excluded – How to Assess Utility Needs • Major Capital – How to approach? • Exact time horizon – 10 years or longer • Debt – Inclusion and process? Staff Will Resolve Issues During the Process 11 Direction From Council • Does Council agree with the proposed work scope • Timeline for doing the Work Option A – Complete by end of 2014 Option B – Complete summer of 2015 as an Input to the next Strategic Plan Process (Staff Recommends) 12 Back-Up 13 Strategic Financial Plan Summarized • Funds Analyzed: • General Fund • KFCG • Benefits • Self Insurance • Transportation • Transit • Assumptions: • Revenue projections varied by revenue type • 2% Inflation on all costs elements • Cultural Services • Museum • Conservation Trust • Natural Areas • Recreation • Golf • Light & Power • Water • Waste Water • Storm Water • Utilities Customer Srvc 14 5-Line Example Actual Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Beginning Balance 2,160,893 2,333,710 1,530,661 1,367,961 609,961 459,961 306,961 Recreation Revenue 5,008,765 5,022,867 5,072,452 5,185,005 5,286,560 5,390,127 5,495,746 General Fund Allocation 1,156,710 891,363 896,480 905,445 914,499 923,644 932,881 KFCG 956,682 1,215,203 1,262,182 1,287,426 1,313,174 1,339,438 1,366,226 Total Revenue Sources 7,122,157 7,129,433 7,231,114 7,377,876 7,514,233 7,653,209 7,794,853 On-going Operation Expense 6,870,551 7,033,893 7,231,114 7,377,876 7,514,233 7,653,209 7,794,853 Capital/Major Expense 78,789 898,589 162,700 758,000 150,000 153,000 156,060 Expenses 6,949,340 7,932,482 7,393,814 8,135,876 7,664,233 7,806,209 7,950,913 Surplus / (Deficit) 172,817 (803,049) (162,700) (758,000) (150,000) (153,000) (156,060) Ending Balance 2,333,710 1,530,661 1,367,961 609,961 459,961 306,961 150,901 Minimum Fund Balance 1,100,000 360,700 1,250,000 650,000 650,000 650,000 650,000 Min Fund Bal vs. Ending Bal 1,233,710 1,169,961 117,961 (40,039) (190,039) (343,039) (499,099) Notes / Add'l Assumptions: RECREATION 5-LINE BUDGET * KFCG funding reflects 1/2 of 11% revenue projection (split with Parks) * Recreation Revenue in 2015 is expected to increase with the Senior Center expansion project completed in 2014. * Base operating budget (excludes capital uses) indicates expense increase of 2% in 2015; 1.8% in 2016; 1.8% in 2017; and 1.9% in 2018 * The spike in 2015 capital expenses is due to use of Recreation Reserves for replacing the bulkheads at EPIC (if BOB2 or other funding is not available). * Deficit amount reflects use of Recreation Reserves for major projects/improvements. * Minimum Fund Balance reflects 5% minimum fund balance (2015 - 2018), assigned commitments, plus following year use of reserves for improvements & projects 15 Timeline Option A deliverable timing would be off cycle; however intent is to use analysis in 2016 Strategic Plan. Option B is aligned with 2016 Strategic Plan schedule. Option A Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Option B Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Planning Revenue / Expense Modeling by Fund Fund / Service Area Review Analysis & Implications CFC Review Council Worksession Review