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COUNCIL - COMPLETE AGENDA - 02/11/2014 - COMPLETE AGENDA
City of Fort Collins Page 1 Karen Weitkunat, Mayor Council Information Center (CIC) Gerry Horak, District 6, Mayor Pro Tem City Hall West Bob Overbeck, District 1 300 LaPorte Avenue Lisa Poppaw, District 2 Fort Collins, Colorado Gino Campana, District 3 Wade Troxell, District 4 Cablecast on City Cable Channel 14 Ross Cunniff, District 5 on the Comcast cable system Steve Roy Darin Atteberry Wanda Nelson City Attorney City Manager City Clerk The City of Fort Collins will make reasonable accommodations for access to City services, programs, and activities and will make special communication arrangements for persons with disabilities. Please call 221-6515 (TDD 224- 6001) for assistance. City Council Work Session February 11, 2014 6:00 PM CALL TO ORDER. 1. Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations. (staff: Ginny Sawyer, Don Vagge; 10 minute staff presentation; 60-90 minute discussion) The purpose of this work session is to provide Council specific options regarding recreational marijuana as allowed by Amendment 64. Amendment 64, allows local municipalities to permit retail marijuana establishments and to impose local restrictions on the time, place, manner and number of retail marijuana operations. Amendment 64 allows persons 21 years-of-age or older to legally possess up to one ounce of marijuana without a doctor’s recommendation and to grow up to six marijuana plants, provided the cultivation takes place in a locked and enclosed space. Local jurisdictions have the option to restrict where the cultivation of marijuana takes place, and to enact local prohibitions on public consumption. Following the November 26, 2013 work session, staff was asked to return for a follow-up work session with more detailed options for regulating recreational marijuana in Fort Collins. General agreement from the November work session included: Allowing retail marijuana businesses. Allowing only existing licensed Medical marijuana centers to apply for retail licenses. Developing retail requirements (similar/same as Medical establishments) upon which to base licensing. Requiring any Medical Center that receives a Retail License to maintain their Medical business. Prohibiting personal growing in multifamily, two-family, and single-family attached dwelling units. CITY COUNCIL City of Fort Collins Page 2 Prohibiting the display and transfer of marijuana in City parks and on other City-owned property. Adopting local ordinances prohibiting “open and public” consumption and consumption by persons under 21. Not pursuing regulations addressing consumption on private property. Staff is presenting options relates to the above direction and will incorporate Council direction into ordinances that will be brought for consideration on First Reading on March 4, 2014. The City of Fort Collins currently has a ban on all retail marijuana activity through March 31, 2014. 2. Community Green House Gas Goal Review. (staff: Lucinda Smith, John Phelan, Bruce Hendee; 15 minute staff presentation; 1 hour discussion) The purpose of this work session is to frame alternative community greenhouse gas goals and seek direction on Council priorities for which goal(s) to aim for in the upcoming Climate Action Plan update. In 2008, Fort Collins City Council adopted community greenhouse gas reduction goals for 2020 and 2050, and progress is reported annually. New findings about the urgency of addressing climate change and recent technological opportunities warrant a re-evaluation of these goals; do they position Fort Collins optimally to address the environmental, economic and social objectives of the community? Three alternative goals were identified and discussed at a high level: o Alternative A: 80% below 2005 by 2050 (Keep current long-term goal) o Alternative B: Carbon neutral (100% reduction) by 2050 o Alternative C: 80% below 2005 by 2030 (Accelerate achievement of current goal by 20 years) City Council will have the opportunity to consider goal options to inform the 2014 update to the Fort Collins Climate Action Plan and the Energy Policy. 3. Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis. (staff: Mary Atchison, Bruce Hendee; 15 minute staff presentation; 45 minute discussion) The Social Sustainability Gap Analysis is the first step in the development of a Social Sustainability Strategic Planning Process. This analysis examined a variety of social issues that impact the social environment of our community to determine the scope of the need among our citizens, and the capacity that currently exists within our community to meet those needs. The issues examined in the study are: Housing Homelessness Persons living in poverty Health and wellness At-risk youth and education Diversity and equity Needs of targeted populations. OTHER BUSINESS. ADJOURNMENT. DATE: STAFF: February 11, 2014 Ginny Sawyer, Policy and Project Manager Don Vagge, Police Deputy Chief WORK SESSION ITEM City Council SUBJECT FOR DISCUSSION Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this work session is to provide Council specific options regarding recreational marijuana as allowed by Amendment 64. Amendment 64, allows local municipalities to permit retail marijuana establishments and to impose local restrictions on the time, place, manner and number of retail marijuana operations. Amendment 64 allows persons 21 years-of-age or older to legally possess up to one ounce of marijuana without a doctor’s recommendation and to grow up to six marijuana plants, provided the cultivation takes place in a locked and enclosed space. Local jurisdictions have the option to restrict where the cultivation of marijuana takes place, and to enact local prohibitions on public consumption. Following the November 26, 2013 work session, staff was asked to return for a follow-up work session with more detailed options for regulating recreational marijuana in Fort Collins. General agreement from the November work session included: Allowing retail marijuana businesses. Allowing only existing licensed Medical marijuana centers to apply for retail licenses. Developing retail requirements (similar/same as Medical establishments) upon which to base licensing. Requiring any Medical Center that receives a Retail License to maintain their Medical business. Prohibiting personal growing in multifamily, two-family, and single-family attached dwelling units. Prohibiting the display and transfer of marijuana in City parks and on other City-owned property. Adopting local ordinances prohibiting “open and public” consumption and consumption by persons under 21. Not pursuing regulations addressing consumption on private property. Staff is presenting options relates to the above direction and will incorporate Council direction into ordinances that will be brought for consideration on First Reading on March 4, 2014. The City of Fort Collins currently has a ban on all retail marijuana activity through March 31, 2014. GENERAL DIRECTION SOUGHT AND SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED Retail Businesses 1. Which eligibility option does Council prefer for allowing existing medical marijuana centers to pursue a retail marijuana establishment license? 2. Which option for “conforming location” does Council support for the potential relocation of an existing medical marijuana business in order to pursue a retail marijuana establishment license? 3. Does Council support requiring businesses to maintain a medical marijuana business license and to co- locate the medical marijuana business and retail marijuana establishment? Packet Pg. 3 February 11, 2014 Page 2 4. Does Council support capping the number of retail marijuana establishments by limiting them to previously existing medical marijuana businesses? Personal Growing 5. Does Council support the proposed regulations? Personal Possession and Consumption 6. Does Council support the proposed regulations? BACKGROUND / DISCUSSION Amendment 64 Amendment 64 was approved by Colorado voters in November 2012. In general, the Amendment allows: People 21 years-of-age or older may legally possess, use, display, purchase, or transport one ounce or less of marijuana without a doctor’s recommendation. Anyone 21 years or older may possess, grow, process, or transport up to six marijuana plants, provided, however, that the cultivation of marijuana occurs in a locked and enclosed space. Local governments to opt out of retail marijuana entirely or opt in and enact local regulations. As required by Amendment 64, on September 9, 2013, the State adopted rules related to the Colorado Retail Marijuana Code. In November 2013, voters approved a 15% state excise tax and 10% state sales tax on retail marijuana sales.. Retail marijuana operations include and are defined as the following: Retail Marijuana Store May purchase marijuana from cultivation facilities and marijuana products from manufacturing facilities and sell to the public. Retail Marijuana Product Manufacturing Facility May purchase marijuana for the manufacture, preparation, and packaging of marijuana products. Products can be sold to retail stores or other manufacturing facilities, but not to the public. Retail Marijuana Testing Facility May analyze and certify the safety and potency of marijuana. Retail Marijuana Cultivation Facility May cultivate, prepare, and package marijuana for sale to a retail store or manufacturer, but may not sell to the public. The Planning and Zoning Board will be considering these definitions and their adoption into the Land Use Code on February 13, 2014. Packet Pg. 4 February 11, 2014 Page 3 Council Options Retail Businesses Retail Marijuana Stores: At the state level, licensed medical marijuana centers have the first option for obtaining retail marijuana business licenses. The State began accepting applications in October 2013 and began issuing licenses in January 2014, in those jurisdictions allowing retail businesses. Applications from anyone other than a licensed medical marijuana business cannot be accepted until July 2014, with licenses being issued in October 2014. State rules allow medical marijuana centers to convert entirely to retail or co-locate retail and medical by either: Having retail and medical in one storefront, with virtual separation (prohibits medical sales to anyone under 21.) Having complete physical separation of retail and medical sales (allows medical marijuana sales to medical marijuana patients under 21 years of age.) In Fort Collins, there are currently 11 licensed medical marijuana centers, with two applications still pending, bringing the total potential number of medical marijuana centers to thirteen. Although some of these businesses were allowed to remain in non-conforming locations through Initiative 301, the initiative establishes the following location requirements: 1000 feet from: CSU Schools Public Playgrounds 500 feet from: Child care centers Places of worship Public parks, pools, recreation facilities Halfway houses or rehab centers Medical Marijuana Centers in Existing Locations In considering eligibility for pursuing a retail marijuana license, staff has developed the following three options for medical marijuana businesses in their current locations: Option One Only allow licensed medical marijuana centers that meet Initiative 301 location requirements to apply for a retail license. (Potential of 7 businesses) Option Two Allow existing licensed medical marijuana centers that meet all of the Initiative 301 location requirements and add a 500 foot setback from residential zoning apply for a retail license. (Potential of 3 businesses) Option Three Allow existing licensed medical marijuana centers that meet all of the Initiative 301 setbacks except the 500 feet from places of worship apply for a retail license. (Potential of 8 businesses) Packet Pg. 5 February 11, 2014 Page 4 Medical Marijuana Centers that Relocate to Conforming Locations Staff has also considered options for medical marijuana centers to relocate to a conforming location to allow for the pursuit of a retail license. Outlined below are three location requirement options for relocating a business. Option One Must meet all Initiative 301 separation requirements. (1,321 acres of available land.) Option Two Meet all Initiative 301 separation requirements and add a 500 foot separation from residential zoning. (835 acres of available land.) Option Three Meet all Initiative 301 separation requirements and add a 500 foot separation from residential zoning and a 1000 foot separation between businesses. (760 acres of available land. Attachment 4) The options as presented only allow for existing medical marijuana businesses to apply for and obtain retail marijuana establishment licenses. Manufacturing and Cultivation Facilities These types of activities are currently regulated by both the State and local medical marijuana regulations. In previous regulations (pre-301), the City required that any cultivation or manufacturing facility within the City had to be associated with a local medical marijuana business. Staff is proposing that any retail cultivation or retail manufacturing facility have an existing retail store within the City. Testing Facility These facilities would be considered a research laboratory by current Land Use Code definitions. Staff does not anticipate the need for additional regulations since these facilities will not be growing, manufacturing, or selling any marijuana. The quantities on-site should also be minimal. Staff has proposed that any local retail businesses be required to test and label all their products. See Attachment 1 for additional proposed retail regulations. Marijuana Growing and Personal Use Amendment 64 allows adults to grow six plants “provided that the growing takes place in an enclosed, locked space, is not conducted openly and publicly, and is not made available for sale”; however, the law does not define these terms. Municipalities may consider better defining what constitutes an “enclosed, locked space” and “open and publicly” in their municipal codes. Growing Fort Collins currently allows medical marijuana patients and caregivers to grow up to 12 plants in single-family detached residences. Growing is prohibited in multifamily residences for health and safety reasons. Highlights of proposed regulations include the following: No cultivation in two-family, multifamily, or single-family attached dwellings. Cultivation could not occur in the open or be perceptible from the outside of a property. The use of compressed, flammable gases would be prohibited, as would all high-intensity lighting. The 12 plant limit for medical marijuana would remain in place, and would apply to recreational marijuana regardless of the number of inhabitants. Packet Pg. 6 February 11, 2014 Page 5 See Attachment 2 for full list of proposed regulations. Possession and Consumption Amendment 64 allows adults 21 and over to possess up to one ounce of marijuana. It prohibits “open and public” use of marijuana. Staff is offering local language to better define open and public consumption and to help with enforcement and allow violations to be written into our local municipal court which would allow for the implementation of a local fine schedule. See Attachment 3 for full list of proposed regulations. Staff has also drafted prohibitions on displaying or transferring marijuana on City owned property which includes parks, trails, and natural areas. Next Steps First Reading of regulatory ordinances is scheduled for March 4, 2014. This date allows all regulations to be in place prior to the end of the temporary ban. Additional Information The County has enacted regulations for retail marijuana establishments that are similar to the City’s existing medical and proposed retail regulations. Notable differences include a limit on the number of each business type (retail, cultivation, manufacturing, and testing facilities) to no more than two at any given time within unincorporated Larimer County. There are currently two retail applications approved and two cultivation applications under review. The County also prohibits the sale of edible products. The County, Colorado State University, and the Poudre School District have not yet considered their option to prohibit the display and transfer of marijuana on their property, but in reaching out, all are willing to consider taking this step. The Downtown Development Authority would also be willing. ATTACHMENTS 1. Proposed Retail MJ Regulations (PDF) 2. Proposed Personal Growing Regulations (PDF) 3. Proposed Personal Use Regulations (PDF) 4. Available Land North 2013 (PDF) 5. Available Land Middle 2013 (PDF) 6. Available Land South 2013 (PDF) 7. Powerpoint presentation (PDF) Packet Pg. 7 ATTACHMENT 1 1 PROPOSED REGULATIONS FOR LICENSING, NUMBER, LOCATION AND OPERATION OF RETAIL MARIJUANA ESTABLISHMENTS Retail marijuana store. No person may operate a retail marijuana store in the City without having obtained a license under the provisions of the City Code. Only a licensed medical marijuana center in good standing with state and local licensing authorities may be licensed as, or may operate, a retail marijuana store in the City. A retail marijuana store and medical marijuana center held by the same licensee shall be at the same location. All retail marijuana stores shall either prohibit the entrance of persons under the age of twenty-one (21) to the licensed premises, or shall physically separate the retail portion from the medical marijuana center. All retail marijuana stores shall affix labels to all containers on the licensed premises that hold retail marijuana or retail marijuana products, which labels shall clearly display potency profiles and contaminant results from licensed retail marijuana testing facilities. Retail marijuana cultivation facility. Only a City-licensed retail marijuana store may be licensed to operate a retail marijuana cultivation facility in the City. A licensee that operates an optional premises cultivation operation and a retail marijuana cultivation facility shall maintain either physical or virtual separation of the facilities, marijuana plants, marijuana inventory, and separate record keeping. All retail marijuana cultivation facilities shall have their harvest and production batches tested for labeling purposes prior to any sale of marijuana or marijuana product. Retail marijuana products manufacturing facility. A licensee that operates a medical marijuana-infused products manufacturing business and retail marijuana products manufacturing facility shall maintain either physical or virtual separation of the facilities, product ingredients, product manufacturing, final inventory, and separate record keeping. All retail marijuana products manufacturing facilities shall have their production batches tested for labeling purposes prior to any sale of marijuana or marijuana product. Retail marijuana testing facility. Any person who meets the requirements and who is not an owner of a retail marijuana cultivation facility, retail marijuana products manufacturing facility, a retail marijuana store, or a medical marijuana business may be licensed as, and may operate, a retail marijuana testing facility in the City. Packet Pg. 8 Attachment1.1: Proposed Retail MJ Regulations (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) ATTACHMENT 1 2 Persons prohibited as licensees. any person who is at the time of application for a retail marijuana store, not currently licensed and in good standing under both the Colorado Medical Marijuana Code and the City Code for a medical marijuana center. any natural person who has been released within the ten (10) years immediately preceding the application from any form of incarceration or court-ordered supervision, including a deferred sentence, resulting from a conviction of any felony or any crime which under the laws of the State would be a felony; or any crime of which fraud or intent to defraud was an element, whether in the State or elsewhere; any person whose criminal history renders them ineligible under Paragraph (2) above, or who employs another person at a retail marijuana establishment who has a criminal history that renders said person ineligible; any applicant who has made a false, misleading or fraudulent statement, or who has omitted pertinent information, on his or her application for a license; any applicant whose license for a medical or retail marijuana establishment in this State or any other state has been revoked. Location criteria. Retail marijuana businesses will be allowed only in the same zoning districts that currently allow medical marijuana businesses. No applicant shall be issued a retail marijuana store license if the proposed location is: within one thousand (1,000) feet of any private or public preschool, elementary, secondary, vocational or trade school; within five hundred (500) feet of: o any college or university, o any child care center, o any public or private park, pool, playground or recreation facility, o any juvenile or adult halfway house, correctional facility or substance abuse rehabilitation or treatment center, or o the boundary of any R-U-L, U-E, R-F, R-L, L-M-N, M-M-N, N-C-L, N-C-M, N-C-B or H-M-N residential zone district; o any place of worship or religious assembly; provided, however, that this subsection (f) shall not apply to a medical marijuana business or retail marijuana establishment in existence as of ______________, 2014. (optional) located upon any City property; or in a residential zone district; within five hundred (500) feet of a residential zone district; provided, however, that this subsection (5) shall not apply to a medical marijuana business or retail marijuana establishment in existence as of _____________, 2014. (optional) Packet Pg. 9 Attachment1.1: Proposed Retail MJ Regulations (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) ATTACHMENT 1 3 The distances described above shall be computed by direct measurement in a straight line from the nearest property line of the land to the nearest portion of the building or unit in which the retail marijuana store is located. Signage and advertising. All signage and advertising for a retail marijuana store shall comply with all applicable provisions of this Code, the Land Use Code and state law. In addition, no advertising for marijuana or marijuana products shall be permitted on signs mounted on vehicles, hand- held or other portable signs, handbills, leaflets or other flyers directly handed to any person in a public place, left upon a motor vehicle or posted upon any public property or private property without consent of the property owner. This prohibition shall not apply to any advertisement contained within a newspaper, magazine or other periodical of general circulation within the City, or that is purely incidental to sponsorship of a charitable event by a retail marijuana establishment. Such signage and advertising must not be misleading, false, or infringe on any state or federal trademark. It shall be unlawful for any retail marijuana cultivation facility to post or allow to be posted signs or other advertising materials identifying the premises as being associated with the cultivation or use of marijuana. It shall be unlawful for any retail marijuana products manufacturing facility to post or allow to be posted signs or other advertising materials identifying the premises as being associated with the cultivation or use of marijuana. Prohibited acts. It shall be unlawful for any licensee to permit the sale or consumption of alcohol beverages, as defined in the Colorado Liquor Code, on the licensed premises. It shall be unlawful for any retail marijuana establishment to permit the sale of or transport to a retail marijuana store without contaminant and potency testing. It shall be unlawful for any retail marijuana cultivation facility or marijuana products manufacturing facility to operate in the City without also operating a retail marijuana store within the City. It shall be unlawful for any licensee to permit the consumption of retail marijuana or retail marijuana products on the licensed premises. It shall be unlawful for any licensee holding or for any agent, manager or employee thereof, to: o sell, give, dispense or otherwise distribute retail marijuana or retail marijuana products from any location other than the licensed premises; o sell, give, dispense or otherwise distribute any retail marijuana or retail marijuana products to persons under the age of twenty one (21); Packet Pg. 10 Attachment1.1: Proposed Retail MJ Regulations (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) ATTACHMENT 1 4 It shall be unlawful for any licensee or for any agent, manager or employee to conduct the sale of retail marijuana by telephone, internet, or other means of remote purchase. It shall be unlawful for retail marijuana establishments to distribute marijuana or marijuana- infused products to a consumer free of charge. It shall be unlawful for any licensee to sell marijuana or marijuana products at a licensed retail marijuana store at any time other than between the hours of 8:00 a.m. and 7:00 p.m. daily. Visibility of activities; control of emissions. All activities of retail marijuana establishments, including, without limitation, cultivating, growing, processing, displaying, manufacturing, selling and storage, shall be conducted indoors. No retail marijuana or paraphernalia shall be displayed or kept in a business so as to be visible from outside the licensed premises. No marijuana cultivation activity shall result in the emission of any gas, vapors, odors, smoke, dust, heat or glare that is noticeable at or beyond the property line of the establishment at which the cultivation occurs. Sufficient measures and means of preventing smoke, odors, debris, dust, fluids and other substances from exiting a retail marijuana establishment must be provided at all times. In the event that any odors, debris, dust, fluids or other substances exit a retail marijuana establishment, the owner of the subject premises and the licensee shall be jointly and severally liable for such conditions and shall be responsible for immediate, full clean-up and correction of such condition. The licensee shall properly dispose of all such materials, items and other substances in a safe, sanitary and secure manner and in accordance with all applicable federal, state and local laws and regulations. Packet Pg. 11 Attachment1.1: Proposed Retail MJ Regulations (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) ATTACHMENT 2 PROPOSED REGULATIONS FOR THE PERSONAL CULTIVATION OF MARIJUANA No marijuana cultivation shall be conducted openly or publicly. Marijuana cultivation shall not occur in detached outbuildings. No dwelling shall be used primarily as a place to cultivate marijuana. In no event shall more than twelve (12) marijuana plants of any size, or six (6) mature marijuana plants, be cultivated or kept within, or on the same legal parcel as, any single-family dwelling. No marijuana plants may be cultivated within any dwelling unit in a two- family, multi-family or single-family attached dwelling. Marijuana cultivation shall not be perceptible from the exterior of the dwelling in which the cultivation occurs. The use of compressed gases and solvents for marijuana cultivation is prohibited. The use of any lighting for indoor marijuana cultivation shall be limited to light-emitting diodes (LEDs), compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) or other fluorescent lighting. All high-intensity discharge (HID) lighting, including, but not limited, to mercury-vapor lamps, metal-halide (MH) lamps, ceramic MH lamps, sodium-vapor lamps, high-pressure sodium (HPS) lamps and xenon short-arc lamps, is prohibited. No marijuana cultivation activity shall result in the emission of any gas, vapors, odors, smoke, dust, heat or glare that is noticeable at or beyond the property line of the dwelling at which the cultivation occurs. Sufficient measures and means of preventing smoke, odors, debris, dust, fluids and other substances from exiting a dwelling must be provided at all times. In the event that any odors, debris, dust, fluids or other substances exit a dwelling the owner of the subject premises and the licensee shall be jointly and severally liable for such conditions and shall be responsible for immediate, full clean-up and correction of such condition. The licensee shall properly dispose of all such materials, items and other substances in a safe, sanitary and secure manner and in accordance with all applicable federal, state and local laws and regulations. All marijuana cultivation shall take place in a locked and enclosed space. All marijuana products kept on premises where marijuana plants are grown shall be stored in a locked and enclosed space. No marijuana produced under this section shall be made available for sale. Packet Pg. 12 Attachment1.2: Proposed Personal Growing Regulations (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) ATTACHMENT 3 PROPOSED REGULATIONS FOR THE CONSUMPTION AND POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA Any consumption of recreational or medical marijuana that is conducted openly and publicly is prohibited. No person under twenty-one (21) years of age shall consume or possess recreational marijuana. No person under twenty-one (21) years of age shall consume or possess medical marijuana unless he or she is a patient or primary caregiver in possession of a valid registry identification card pursuant to Article XVIII, Section 14 of the Colorado Constitution. No person shall possess more than one (1) ounce of recreational marijuana. No medical marijuana patient shall possess more than two (2) ounces of medical marijuana. Marijuana clubs are prohibited. Packet Pg. 13 Attachment1.3: Proposed Personal Use Regulations (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) FG FG FG FG FG FG FG FG ÕZYXW !"`$ !"`$ Prospect Rd Vine Dr Mulberry St Shields St College Ave Interstate 25 Timberline Rd Willox Ln Lincoln Ave Laporte Ave Riverside Ave Lemay Ave Taft Hill Rd Laurel St Mountain Vista Dr Remington St Mason St Howes St Elizabeth St Mountain Ave Summit View Dr 9th St County Road 50 County Road 48 Jefferson St Giddings Rd Turnberry Rd Lemay Ave Vine Dr Interstate 25 Vine Dr Taft Hill Rd Country Club Rd Marijuana Businesses Available Land with Zoning and Spacing Restrictions Based on Initiative 301 - North Area CITY OF FORT COLLINS GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM MAP PRODUCTS These map products and all underlying data are developed for use by the City of Fort Collins for its internal purposes only, and were not designed or intended for general use by members of the public. The City makes no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, timeliness, or completeness, and in particular, its accuracy in labeling or displaying dimensions, contours, property boundaries, or placement of location of any map features thereon. THE CITY OF FORT COLLINS MAKES NO WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR WARRANTY FOR FITNESS OF USE FOR PARTICULAR PURPOSE, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, WITH RESPECT TO THESE MAP PRODUCTS OR THE UNDERLYING DATA. Any users of these map products, map applications, or data, accepts them AS IS, WITH ALL FAULTS, and assumes all responsibility of the use thereof, and further covenants and agrees to hold the City harmless from and against all damage, loss, or liability arising from any use of this map product, in consideration of the City's having made this information available. Independent verification of all data contained herein should be obtained by any users of these products, or underlying data. The City disclaims, and shall not be held liable for any and all damage, loss, or liability, whether direct, indirect, or consequential, which arises or may arise from these map products or the use thereof FG !"`$ !"`$ Prospect Rd Drake Rd Horsetooth Rd Shields St Taft Hill Rd College Ave Interstate 25 Timberline Rd Ziegler Rd Harmony Rd Mason St Lemay Ave B o ard w alk D r Strauss Cabin Rd Jo h n F K enn e d y Pk w y Remington St Interstate 25 Lemay Ave Landings Dr Troutman Pkwy ummit View Dr Riverside Av nty Road 38e County Road Marijuana Businesses Available Land with Zoning and Spacing Restrictions Based on Initiative 301 - Middle Area CITY OF FORT COLLINS GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM MAP PRODUCTS These map products and all underlying data are developed for use by the City of Fort Collins for its internal purposes only, and were not designed or intended for general use by members of the public. The City makes no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, timeliness, or completeness, and in particular, its accuracy in labeling or displaying dimensions, contours, property boundaries, or placement of location of any map features thereon. THE CITY OF FORT COLLINS MAKES NO WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR WARRANTY FOR FITNESS OF USE FOR PARTICULAR PURPOSE, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, WITH RESPECT TO THESE MAP PRODUCTS OR THE UNDERLYING DATA. Any users of these map products, map applications, or data, accepts them AS IS, WITH ALL FAULTS, and assumes all responsibility of the use thereof, and further covenants and agrees to hold the City harmless from and against all damage, loss, or liability arising from any use of this map product, in consideration of the City's having made this information available. Independent verification of all data contained herein should be obtained by any users of these products, or underlying data. The City disclaims, and shall not be held liable for any and all damage, loss, or liability, whether direct, indirect, or consequential, which arises or may arise from these map products or the use thereof by any person or entity. Printed: January 28, 2014 FG Medical Marijuana Businesses FG FG FG FG !"`$ !"`$ Trilby Rd Shields St Lemay Ave Interstate 25 College Ave Taft Hill Rd Harmony Rd Carpenter Rd State Highway 392 Ziegler Rd Kechter Rd County Road 19 Strauss Cabin Rd Timberline Rd County Road 36 Ma s o n S t County Road 7 Ziegler Rd Interstate 25 Kechter Rd Timberline Rd County Road 36 County Road 9 County Road 11 County Road 11 s Highway 287 ounty Road 13 ardwalk Dr County Road Kennedy Pkwy Kechter Rd Marijuana Businesses Available Land with Zoning and Spacing Restrictions Based on Initiative 301 - South Area CITY OF FORT COLLINS GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM MAP PRODUCTS These map products and all underlying data are developed for use by the City of Fort Collins for its internal purposes only, and were not designed or intended for general use by members of the public. The City makes no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, timeliness, or completeness, and in particular, its accuracy in labeling or displaying dimensions, contours, property boundaries, or placement of location of any map features thereon. THE CITY OF FORT COLLINS MAKES NO WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR WARRANTY FOR FITNESS OF USE FOR PARTICULAR PURPOSE, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, WITH RESPECT TO THESE MAP PRODUCTS OR THE UNDERLYING DATA. Any users of these map products, map applications, or data, accepts them AS IS, WITH ALL FAULTS, and assumes all responsibility of the use thereof, and further covenants and agrees to hold the City harmless from and against all damage, loss, or liability arising from any use of this map product, in consideration of the City's having made this information available. Independent verification of all data contained herein should be obtained by any users of these products, or underlying data. The City disclaims, and shall not be held liable for any and all damage, loss, or liability, whether direct, indirect, or consequential, which arises or may arise from these map products or the use thereof by any person or entity. Printed: January 28, 2014 FG Medical Marijuana Businesses 1 Ginny Sawyer, Project and Policy Manager Don Vagge, Deputy Chief Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations City Council Work Session February 11, 2014 Packet Pg. 17 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 2 Direction Sought Does Council support the proposed regulations included in the following areas: Retail Businesses. Personal Growing and Consumption. Use in City Owned Parks and Natural Areas. Packet Pg. 18 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 3 Background City is working towards implementation of Amendment 64. Temporary ban on retail businesses expires March 31, 2014. State can accept retail applications only from licensed medical businesses until July 2014. Packet Pg. 19 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 4 Background The City currently has the following: • 11 licensed medical marijuana centers • 1 center denied (appeal underway) • 2 centers pending approval • 11 licensed cultivation centers • 1 cultivation facility denied (appeal possible) • 3 cultivation facilities pending • 2 Manufacturing Infused Product (MIP) licenses Packet Pg. 20 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 5 Initiative 301 Location Requirements 1000 feet from: 500 feet from: - CSU - Child Care Center - Public Playground - Place of Worship - Schools - Public park, pool, recreation facility - Halfway house, rehab center Packet Pg. 21 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 6 Retail Marijuana Stores Eligibility Options 1. Allow existing licensed medical centers that meet all of the Initiative 301 setbacks to be eligible to apply for a retail license. (7) 2. Allow existing licensed medical centers that meet all of the Initiative 301 setbacks and add a 500 foot setback from residential zoning. (3) 3. Allow existing licensed medical centers that meet all of the Initiative 301 setbacks except 500 feet from places of worship. (8) Packet Pg. 22 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 7 Retail Marijuana Stores Eligibility Options Allow non-conforming businesses to relocate to a conforming location to be eligible to apply for a retail license. Options: 1. Meet all Initiative 301 location requirements. 2. Meet all Initiative 301 requirements and add a 500 foot separation from residential zoning. 3. Meet all Initiative 301 requirements and add a 500 foot separation from residential zoning and a 1000 foot separation between businesses. Packet Pg. 23 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 8 Retail Marijuana Stores Eligibility Options Require businesses that obtain a retail license to maintain a medical license and operate each business in the same location. (Dual license/co-locate.) Packet Pg. 24 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 9 Manufacturing and Cultivation Require that any retail cultivation or retail manufacturing facility have a retail store within Fort Collins. Packet Pg. 25 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 10 Number of Businesses The options as presented only allow for existing medical marijuana businesses to apply for and obtain retail marijuana establishment licenses. Packet Pg. 26 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 11 Personal Growing • No cultivation in two-family, multifamily, or single- family attached dwellings. • No cultivation in the open or perceptible from the outside of a property. • Compressed, flammable gases prohibited, as well as all high-intensity lighting. • No more than 12 plants in any single-family dwelling. Packet Pg. 27 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 12 Personal Use and Consumption • Prohibit displaying and/or transferring marijuana in City parks and Natural Areas. • Enact a local ordinance prohibiting open and public consumption. Packet Pg. 28 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 13 Next Steps Temporary Ban expires March 31, 2014. First Reading of Related Ordinances March 4, 2014. Packet Pg. 29 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 14 Direction Sought- Retail Businesses Which eligibility option does Council prefer for allowing existing medical marijuana centers to pursue a retail marijuana establishment license? Which option for “conforming location” does Council support for the potential relocation of an existing medical marijuana business in order to pursue a retail marijuana establishment license? Packet Pg. 30 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 15 Does Council support requiring businesses to maintain a medical marijuana business license and to co-locate the medical marijuana business and retail marijuana establishment? Does Council support capping the number of retail marijuana establishments by limiting them to previously existing medical marijuana businesses? Direction Sought- Retail Businesses Packet Pg. 31 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 16 Direction Sought Manufacturing and Cultivation Does Council support requiring retail cultivation or retail manufacturing facilities to have a retail store within Fort Collins? Packet Pg. 32 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 17 Direction Sought Personal Growing Does Council support the proposed personal growing regulations? Packet Pg. 33 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) 18 Direction Sought Use and Consumption Does Council support the proposed use and cunsumption regulations? Packet Pg. 34 Attachment1.7: Powerpoint presentation (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) DATE: STAFF: February 11, 2014 Lucinda Smith, Environmental Sustainability Director John Phelan, Energy Services Manager Bruce Hendee, Chief Sustainability Officer WORK SESSION ITEM City Council SUBJECT FOR DISCUSSION Community Green House Gas Goal Review. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this work session is to frame alternative community greenhouse gas goals and seek direction on Council priorities for which goal(s) to aim for in the upcoming Climate Action Plan update. In 2008, Fort Collins City Council adopted community greenhouse gas reduction goals for 2020 and 2050, and progress is reported annually. New findings about the urgency of addressing climate change and recent technological opportunities warrant a re-evaluation of these goals; do they position Fort Collins optimally to address the environmental, economic and social objectives of the community? Three alternative goals were identified and discussed at a high level: o Alternative A: 80% below 2005 by 2050 (Keep current long-term goal) o Alternative B: Carbon neutral (100% reduction) by 2050 o Alternative C: 80% below 2005 by 2030 (Accelerate achievement of current goal by 20 years) City Council will have the opportunity to consider goal options to inform the 2014 update to the Fort Collins Climate Action Plan and the Energy Policy. GENERAL DIRECTION SOUGHT AND SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED 1. Does Council support upcoming climate action planning to consider two scenarios: - accelerated goal for 2030 & carbon neutral by 2050 - current goal of 80% reduction by 2050 2. Does City Council have any feedback on which values or principles to emphasize in upcoming climate action planning? 3. What feedback does City Council have regarding the information presented, or proposed next steps for the Climate Action Plan update? BACKGROUND / DISCUSSION Opportunity Fort Collins has made good progress since first embarking on Climate Action Plan (CAP) implementation in 2000. The ClimateWise voluntary business assistance program, born out of the original Climate Action Plan, now assists over 300 local businesses in reducing emissions while saving money. The Fort Collins Energy Policy sets a solid foundation for successful, nationally recognized, energy efficiency programs and increased renewables. Important community activities such as the Mason MAX corridor, economic clusters (clean energy, water and local food), and the new Road to Zero Waste Plan serve many community priorities while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Choices made now will impact Fort Collins’ future for years to come, so it is important to establish a clear, active and positive vision for a sustainable and resilient Fort Collins. Packet Pg. 35 February 11, 2014 Page 2 Reasons to Review GHG Goals Now Now is an opportune time for Fort Collins to re-evaluate its community greenhouse gas goals for several reasons. Scientific findings about climate change have advanced significantly since the Climate Action Plan was adopted in 2008. (See below and Attachment 1) New opportunities to reduce emissions have emerged since 2008, including advancements in energy technologies such as smart grid, vehicle electrification opportunities, changes in the price of energy solutions, new waste reduction strategies, etc. that warrant a fresh look at reduction strategies. To ensure alignment and coordination with several major planning initiatives underway in Fort Collins, including updates to the 2009 Energy Policy, completion of a new Road to Zero Waste Plan, updates to the 2007 Roadmap for Green Building, discussion of climate adaption planning strategies for the City of Fort Collins, and Platte River Power Authority’s strategic planning process. The Climate Action Plan needs to be updated in 2014 because it does not identify a complete pathway to the current 2020 goal, and does not address how to achieve the 2050 goal. Clarification of intent for community greenhouse gas goals (which are an element of the Climate Action Plan) can inform the 2015/2016 Budgeting for Outcomes process. Urgency to Take Action Is Growing The vast majority of the world’s scientists agree that climate change is impacting us now, and it will get worse if we don’t do something about it. Climate protection discussions in the international political area have often focused on limiting carbon dioxide levels to 450 PPM (parts per million). This level of carbon dioxide has been equated with limiting the average global temperature rise to 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, a level hoped to thwart the worst impacts of climate change. However, many scientists now, including James Hansen, the Head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, argue that stabilization at 350 PPM is the level needed to mitigate the worst impacts, given the amount of climate change already “in the pipeline”, and the increasing rate of both slow and fast feedback mechanisms. See Attachment 1 for more information. Of greatest note are the very recent draft findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group III on climate change mitigation. Draft findings (January 2014) indicate that another 15 years of failure to limit carbon emissions could make the problem virtually impossible to solve with current technologies and make the case that waiting to reduce emissions will become costlier as time moves on. The IPCC WG III’s report on climate mitigation is scheduled for release in April 2014. In light of the urgent need for action, a number of leading communities and countries have elected to set long term (i.e. 2050) goals to achieve carbon neutrality, often along with interim short and mid-term goals and source- specific goals to guide their way. Seattle, WA, Davis, CA, Norway and Costa Rica are among the entities that have established carbon neutral goals. Climate Change is Impacting Us Now Climate change has already been well documented throughout the western U.S. Average temperatures have risen 2-4 degrees F over the last century. The last two years demonstrate the vulnerability of the Fort Collins community and its regional neighbors to extreme weather events. To inform recent City climate risk and vulnerability assessments, data from global climate models have been adjusted to local scales to look at predicted impacts locally. Changes that are highly likely in the Fort Collins region include: Up to 6° F warmer summers by 2040 Continued declines in snowpack Earlier Spring runoff Declines in water availability and soil moisture Greater likelihood of severe storms, extended drought and severe wildfire Packet Pg. 36 February 11, 2014 Page 3 Increased frequency and severity of heat waves and ozone formation Increased spread and outbreaks from disease and pests and invasive species According to the National Weather Service, extreme heat killed more Americans in the last decade than any other weather-related event. The recently released Fort Collins Extreme Heat Report shows that the predicted frequency of single 95° days could rise from an annual average of 3 (1961-1999 annual average) to 10, or 3.5 times higher in Fort Collins by mid-century under a lower emission scenario, or 17 (annual average) if future emission rise at a medium-high rate. By the end of century, the predicted frequency of single 95° days could be about four times higher with lower future emissions, or about 13 times higher (38 days per year on average) with medium-high emissions. Other impacts from increased heat include impacts to water quality and quantity, regional agriculture and tourism, elevated wildfire risk, worsening air quality, and increased energy use for cooling purposes. Solutions are Available Now In 2004, Princeton Professors Socolow and Pacala published a paper in Science, “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies (http://citeseerx.ist. psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.152.8157&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The paper asserts that humanity already possesses the ability to solve the carbon and climate problem for the next half-century and that a portfolio of technologies exists to meet the world’s energy needs over the next 50 years and limit atmospheric CO2 to a trajectory that avoids a doubling of the preindustrial concentration. Socolow reaffirmed this assertion in 2011. GHG GOAL CHOICES Purpose of Goal Setting Goal-setting is an important part of the overall climate planning process. By establishing a vision for the future, goals provide a framework for climate planning efforts and serve to focus community attention and action. Goal setting, combined with a powerful positive vision, is a strong motivator. There are a number of approaches to goal-setting. A community can: Set a goal that is built upon a plan to achieve it. Fort Collins followed this approach when first establishing its goal and Local Action Plan in 1999. Establish an aspirational goal or vision and then develop a plan to achieve the long-term goal. Set an aspirational vision and develop a pragmatic shorter-term plan with milestones and update requirements built into it. Fort Collins followed this approach in 2008 by first establishing goals for 2020 and 2050 and then developing the Climate Action Plan, an interim strategic plan that illuminated most of the pathway towards the 2020 goal. For reference, the European Union countries have just chosen to set new climate and energy goals to reduce emissions 40% below 1990 by 2030 and to achieve a 27% share of renewable energy by 2030. The underlying Green Paper that established the 2030 framework recognized the importance of certainty achieved by goal- setting, by stating, “clarifying the objectives for 2030 will support progress towards a competitive economy and a secure energy system by creating more demand for efficient and low carbon technologies and spurring research, development and innovation, which can create new opportunities for jobs and growth. This in turn reduces both directly and indirectly the economic cost.” GHG Goal Elements There are four core elements that comprise a greenhouse gas goal: 1. Boundary (where does the community draw the boundaries of responsibility?) 2. Scope (what emission sources are to be included?) Packet Pg. 37 February 11, 2014 Page 4 3. Magnitude (by how much will emissions be reduced?) 4. Timeframe (by what date will the emissions goals be achieved?) Table 1 below identifies the components of Fort Collins community GHG emissions. Table 1. Fort Collins GHG inventory (2012) Element Boundary % of total GHG Electricity City limits (municipal utility) 52% Ground transportation City Growth Management Area 23% Natural gas City limits (private utility) 17% Air travel Fort Collins citizens 4% Solid Waste Organics from FC contribution to landfills 3% Water Process emissions Process emission from wastewater treatment 0.3% GHG Goal Alternatives Three goal alternatives were identified for evaluation during Fall 2013. Brendle Group was contracted to evaluate these alternatives using a conceptual framework and to conduct first-order, scoping level analyses of possible pathways for achieving the alternatives and total costs and savings associated with these pathways. (See detail in Attachment 2) Alternative A: Keep current long-term goal This alternative includes reducing GHG emissions 80 percent below the 2005 baseline by 2050. This represents the current City of Fort Collins goal as well as the State of Colorado goal. For context, a straight-line interpolation between 2005 and 2050 would require a 27% reduction below 2005 by 2020. This 2050 goal is the same as the current goal adopted by Portland, Oregon; York, England; and Madison, Wisconsin, among others. Alternative B: Increase magnitude of goal to carbon neutral (100% reduction) This alternative would achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The straight-line interpolation is 33 percent reduction by 2020, for context. Seattle, Washington; Copenhagen, Denmark; and Melbourne, Australia have adopted goals for carbon neutrality by 2050. Alternative C: Accelerate achievement of current goal by 20 years This alternative includes reducing GHG emissions 80 percent below the 2005 baseline by 2030 rather than 2050 − an acceleration of 20 years. The straight-line interpolation is an interim milestone of 48 percent reduction by 2020. This alternative reflects the scenario presented in a recent white paper developed by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) that identifies “How far?” and “How fast?” could Fort Collins move towards a prosperous, secure and clean energy future. (See Attachment 3) Table 2. Summary of Fort Collins GHG Goal Alternatives Goal Description Potential Interim 2020 Milestone Goal Average Annual Reduction Alternative A. Keep Current Long-Term Goal 27% below baseline 80% below 2005 baseline by 2050 1.8% Alternative B. Increase Magnitude 33% below baseline 100% below 2005 baseline February 11, 2014 Page 5 GHG Goal Alternatives Discussion Electricity and Natural Gas All scenarios assume emissions from electricity ultimately reach net zero. Scenarios assume varying rates of reduction through efficiency and conservation improvements such as: More aggressive and widespread adoption of conventional and cost-effective technologies Behavioral and smart control strategies that optimize how building occupants use energy Integrative design approaches that consider energy efficiency opportunities in renovations and new construction Aggressive engagement with industrial energy users to reduce process related emissions The electric supply changes will be addressed through: Transition away from coal replaced by natural gas and renewables widespread adoption of photovoltaic large increases in utility scale wind generation other renewables Transportation In the transportation sector, all scenarios assume 30% reduction in of per capita miles driven through smart growth and increased alternatives modes, and incentives/disincentives to reduce single occupancy vehicle use. The scenarios also assume an accelerated shift to more fuel efficient and electric vehicles. Solid Waste Strategies to achieve zero waste by 2030 are spelled out in the Road to Zero Waste Plan. Major strategies include: Enhanced education Universal recycling Composting facilities More diversion of construction and demolition waste Prohibition of certain materials going into the waste stream Carbon Neutrality Alternatives A and C have a small amount fossil fuel emissions remaining in the long-term in the natural gas and transportation sectors. In order to achieve carbon neutrality (Scenario B), the remaining fossil fuel emissions will need to be offset. Fort Collins could chose to offset these emissions by developing excess local renewable energy generating capacity or developing a local carbon offset program, possibly focused on local or regional ecosystem services. How Far? How Fast? The Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) has prepared a paper to address the questions of “How far?” and “How fast?” could Fort Collins move towards a prosperous, secure and clean energy for the purpose of informing Energy Policy discussions. (See Attachment 3.) The RMI paper, “Stepping Up: Benefits and Costs of Accelerating Fort Collins’ Energy and Climate Goals”, investigates opportunities in three sectors: building, electricity supply, and transportation. The paper draws on the best practices, technology trends, and plausibly achievable goals for customer adoption. The analysis is based on existing technologies and proven adoption rates , but assumes maximum proven adoption rates in all sectors, sustained over time. The report suggests that Fort Collins can achieve 80% reduction below 2005 by 2030 while: Packet Pg. 39 February 11, 2014 Page 6 Reducing building energy use 31% through efficiency Achieving carbon neutral electricity by 2030 Reducing transportation emissions by 48% Economic Implications Preliminary analyses were completed to evaluate total costs and savings of the alternatives. In the upcoming climate action plan update, the economic implications will be more fully evaluated to determine who pays and who saves, cash flows and financial models, and this will be part of the public and Council review process. Brendle Group conducted a first order economic analysis for the alternatives that is intended to be illustrative and directional, applying scoping level analytical practices commonly used in climate action scoping. These economic analyses consider direct capital costs and savings from reduced fuel use. They may be considered conservative because they do not consider a cost for carbon, human health cost savings from reduced emissions, indirect economic benefits to Fort Collins economy, or quantified risk of inaction. The analyses show that significant investments will be needed by 2050, but that cumulative savings could be two to three times higher than cumulative costs by 2050. For all scenarios, the analyses show that savings start to exceed costs in approximately 2030. They also illustrate that greater investments near-term yield greater savings long-term. The RMI paper, “Stepping Up: Benefits and Costs of Accelerating Fort Collins’ Energy and Climate Goals” also contains economic evaluations that look at the total resource costs. This analysis shows that, by 2030, combining results across all sectors, the accelerated scenario results in a net benefit for the community, compared to business as usual. By 2050, the accelerated scenario could result in a significantly larger net benefit compared to business as usual. Reaching any of the alternative GHG goals will require fundamental changes to the supply of electricity, now 50% of the community GHG inventory. Platte River Power Authority’s (PRPA) 2009 Climate Action Plan identified a mix of strategies PRPA could implement to reduce its GHG emissions. PRPA’s 2014 Strategic Plan includes initiatives and goals related to the importance of collaboration with owner municipalities, diversifying the energy supply portfolio, expanding renewable energy sources, and evaluating ways to significantly reduce its carbon footprint while remaining the lowest cost wholesale power provider located in Colorado. Very preliminary work has been done by PRPA staff to update assumptions and analysis for GHG reduction strategies that were include in the 2009 PRPA CAP, including lower surplus sales, increasing energy efficiency in homes and businesses, replacing a portion of coal generation with natural gas combined cycle, and increased utility scale wind generation. (See Attachment 7) Platte River plans to conduct detailed analysis of a wide range of GHG reduction options and associated costs as part of its 2014 Integrated Resource Plan, which is due to be completed by the end of this year. Collaboration with PRPA and its member cities will be imperative in Fort Collins’ climate action planning and implementation efforts. Even though the objectives and thus the approaches for the economic analyses differed, some important commonalities can be identified, including: • Significant investments will be required near term. • Savings start to outweigh costs around the year 2030. • Net savings to the community are significant by 2050. • The higher the initial investments, the greater the net saving longer-term. Financing Models Large capital investments will be needed to achieve any of the GHG goal alternatives, and a range of financial tools will be necessary. Funding sources will likely fall along a full spectrum as follows: Private investment (e.g., venture capital) Packet Pg. 40 February 11, 2014 Page 7 Private investment (e.g., home improvements) Energy services company model (investor repaid by saving) Philanthropy Citizen and business voluntary contributions (e.g., Crowd source funding) Grants/Prizes Public/Private Partnerships Rate-Payer Tax Payer The CAP planning process can consider establishing guiding criteria to manage cost impacts, or establishing cost thresholds, such as PRPA retaining the lowest wholesale electric power rate in Colorado. Potential Aspects to Emphasize in Future CAP Update When defining a path to meet future goals, several considerations come into play, including: Collaboration with regional planning efforts Community leadership Cost management Future cost of carbon Maximize innovation Maximize other benefits Risk mitigation/diversifying energy supply Feedback on which aspects to emphasize in upcoming climate action planning will be sought in public outreach and considered while crafting alternative scenarios to meet preferred GHG goals. Economic Health Potential There are many similarities among the GHG goal alternatives, including recognition of the need to go beyond simple efficiency to fundamental changes to energy supply, the need for increased near-term investments, the estimation that those investments will deliver net economic benefits to the community by 2050, and the risk management benefits of de-carbonization and diversifying our energy supply. There are some important differences as well. The first primary difference between “staying the course with existing goals” (Alternative A) and seeking more aspirational goals is the greater environmental benefit of increased carbon reduction. The second primary difference is the economic health potential of establishing a clear, leadership position with aspirational goals. The accelerated scenarios represent a fundamentally different paradigm for investment in energy assets and infrastructure, and provide greater opportunities for local job creation, economic health, stimulus for innovation, and growth of local businesses. The accelerated scenarios call for increased investments in efficiency, smart grid, distributed power and other local energy assets, and decreased investment in coal and natural gas. This shift in investment, from distant to local sources, reduces the outflow of cash in the community for decades to come and would generate an estimated 400-500 local jobs, according to RMI’s analysis. The RMI paper discusses the unique opportunities available to Fort Collins though visionary goal setting. “Few communities in the nation have the combination of factors that align to make Fort Collins a community that can lead in creating forward-looking energy policy for community benefit. These factors include strong and pragmatic civic leadership, manageable size, an innovative and well- positioned municipal utility, workable options for creative transportation policy, and low cost options for clean and affordable electricity supplies. Accordingly, it is no surprise that Fort Collins’ innovative energy programs and policies, notably the FortZED project, have already attracted national and international attention. Packet Pg. 41 February 11, 2014 Page 8 By stepping forward to pioneer new approaches, Fort Collins has galvanized the support of community leaders and attracted the participation of leading businesses and other institutions in the area. Now the City has an opportunity to sustain and advance its leadership position by taking up new goals that leverage existing achievements and opportunities. In doing so, Fort Collins could embark on a transformative path of reinvestment in community-based energy systems and put itself at the forefront of innovation nationally-stimulating local economic development, reducing outflows of money from the community, improving security, and reducing risk.” With the addition of a truly aspirational GHG reduction commitment, Fort Collins would be uniquely positioned to attract the level of intellectual and financial capital necessary and foster the innovation needed to achieve an aspirational goal. In doing so, Fort Collins could demonstrate success and become a replicable model for other communities. Proposed Next Steps Based on direction received from this work session on priority scenarios for future greenhouse gas reduction planning, the Fort Collins Energy Policy and the Climate Action Plan will be updated and brought back for Council consideration. A consultant has been retained to conduct the technical analyses of strategy options, savings and costs. Cost impact scenarios and financial models will be developed to inform the public outreach and Council decision-making process. It is important that the CAP and Energy Policy reflect community values. Further, community support will be essential to achieve any of the goal alternatives. Staff proposes to convene a committee of stakeholders including residents and business entities to participate in CAP update to ensure various perspectives are heard and to build critical partnerships and support. A robust public involvement process will be conducted to gather feedback on the draft CAP. A separate committee may be convened to develop and help implement a public engagement plan for the CAP. The CAP will be updated in close concert with PRPA’s 2014 resource planning process. The CAP update will also consider and incorporate strategies that enhance resiliency to a changing climate that are aligned with mitigation. Staff anticipates returning with a draft updated Climate Action Plan for Council review at a work session by the end of 2014. See Attachment 6 for a summary of proposed stakeholder involvement. Table 3. Proposed Timeline Action Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Convene CAP Advisory Committee X Energy Policy Update X X X CAP strategy development / technical analyses X X X Conduct CAP public outreach X X X Public, Board, Council review of draft CAP X ATTACHMENTS 1. Climate Change Findings (PDF) 2. GHG Goal Alternative (PDF) 3. Stepping Up Fort Collins (PDF) 4. Public Perspectives and Outreach (PDF) 5. TBL Sustainability Assessment (PDF) 6. Proposed Public Engagement Process (PDF) 7. Platte River Power Authority Preliminary Cost Estimates (PDF) 8. Work Session Summary, August 13, 2013 (PDF) 9. Powerpoint presentation (PDF) Packet Pg. 42 Post 2008 Climate Change Findings and Predictions Findings - Environment The International Energy Agency reported that 2012 global CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion reached a record high of 31.6 billion tons, representing a 1.4% increase over 2011 levels. (2012 CO2 emissions in the U.S. fell 3.8% compared to 2011 levels, while China’s grew 3.8%.)1 On May 9, 2013, measured concentrations of carbon dioxide at the Mauna Loa Observatory surpassed 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time since record-keeping began there several decades ago. Before the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were approximately 280 ppm.2 California had its driest year on record during 2013 with 32.8% of average precipitation. The Rim Fire burned over 255,000 acres near Yosemite – the third largest fire on record in CA. Colorado had a year of extremes. In June, the Black Forest Fire destroyed over 500 homes near Colorado Springs, the most destructive wildfire in state history. In September record- breaking rainfall and flooding impacted the Front Range.3 In early 2013, Lakes Michigan and Huron reached record low levels in the 1918-present period of record, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. All of the Great Lakes had water levels well below average. On May 20, 2013 an EF-5 tornado hit Moore, OK destroying thousands of homes. 24 fatalities made this the deadliest tornado of 2013. A 2.6 mile wide EF-3 tornado hit near El Reno, OK on May 31st, 2013, causing eight fatalities; this was the widest tornado on record.4 The year 2013 ties with 2003 as the 4th warmest year globally since records began in 1880. The annual global combined land and ocean surface temperature was 1.12o F above the 20th century average of 57.0o F. This marks the 27th consecutive year (since 1976) that the yearly global temperature was above average. Only one year during the 20th century – 1998 – was warmer than 2013.5 2012 was the warmest year on record for the contiguous United States. The average temperature was 55.3°F, 3.2°F above the 20th century average, and 1.0°F above 1998, the previous warmest year. July 2012 was hottest month ever observed for the contiguous U.S. and 2012 was the second most (climate) extreme year on record for the nation.6 Temperatures across most of North America were above average during 2013, but overall more moderate than 2012, which brought record heat to much of the continent.7 2012 also ranks as the warmest calendar year in the 124 year record for the Fort Collins, CO weather station on CSU campus. In 2012, more than 40,000 daily heat records were broken nationwide, compared to 25,000 daily records broken in June of 2011.8 1 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/CO2EmissionsFromFuelCombustionHighlights2013.pdf 2 http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2013/05/130510-earth-co2-milestone-400-ppm/ 3 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2013/13 4 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2013/13 5 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/13 6 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/ 7 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/13 8 http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12781 Attachment 1 Packet Pg. 43 Attachment2.1: Climate Change Findings (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 2 Findings – Local Environment To inform 2013 City climate risk and vulnerability assessments, data from global climate models that have been adjusted to local scales to evaluate predicted impacts locally. Changes that are highly likely in the Fort Collins region include: Up to 6° F warmer summers by 2040 Continued declines in snowpack Earlier Spring runoff Declines in water availability and soil moisture Greater likelihood of severe storms, extended drought and severe wildfire Increased frequency and severity of heat waves and ozone formation Increased spread and outbreaks from disease and pests and invasive species Findings – Public Health One third of the nation’s population experienced 10 or more days of summer temps above 100°F. in 2012.2 Findings – Economic Impacts The health costs associated with six climate change–related events that struck the United States between 2000 and 2009 exceeded $14 billion, with 95 percent due to the value of lives lost prematurely. Actual health care costs were an estimated $740 million.9 The future health costs associated with predicted climate change–related events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and floods are projected to be enormous. Correlations and Predictions For the first time recently, scientific studies have been able to make strong statistical links between climate change and certain extreme weather events. For example, The UK’s Guardian reported on July 10, 2012, that the 2011 record warm November in the UK, the second hottest since records began in 1659, was at least 60 times more likely to happen because of climate change than owing to natural variations in the earth's weather systems.10 A special report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in November 2011 predicted that global warming will cause more dangerous and “unprecedented extreme weather” in the future.11 A 2012 report by the Natural Resources Defense Council indicates that rising temperatures driven by unabated climate change will increase the number of life-threatening excessive heat events, resulting in thousands of additional heat-related premature deaths each year, with a cumulative toll of approximately 33,000 additional heat-related deaths by mid-century in these cities, and more than 150,000 additional heat-related deaths by the century’s end.12 The draft National Climate Assessment Report was released in January 2013. Key findings include: Human-induced increases in atmospheric levels of heat-trapping gases are the main cause of observed climate change over the past 50 years. The “fingerprints” of human- induced change also have been identified in many other aspects of the climate system, including changes in ocean heat content, precipitation, atmospheric moisture, and Arctic sea ice. 9 http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/30/11/2167.abstract 10 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/10/extreme-weather-manmade-climate-change 11 http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/srex_press_release.pdf 12 http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/killer-heat/files/killer-summer-heat-report.pdf Packet Pg. 44 Attachment2.1: Climate Change Findings (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 3 Past emissions of heat-trapping gases have already committed the world to a certain amount of future climate change. How much more the climate will change depends on future emissions and the sensitivity of the climate system to those emissions. The “Letter to the American People”, drafted by members of the National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee to accompany the draft report states:, “Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present. This report of the National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee concludes that the evidence for a changing climate has strengthened considerably since the last National Climate Assessment report, written in 2009. Many more impacts of human-caused climate change have now been observed.13 Calls for Action Sooner Draft findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Working Group III on climate change mitigation indicate that another 15 years of failure to limit carbon emissions could make the problem virtually impossible to solve with current technologies. Delaying mitigation through 2030 will increase the challenges and reduce the options," warns a summary of the report. The real question will become whether to take some economic pain now, or more later. This report is scheduled for release in April 2014.14 The world could avoid much of the damaging effects of climate change this century if greenhouse gas emissions are curbed more sharply, according to a study published in 2012 in Nature Climate Change.15 Limiting climate change to target levels will become much more difficult to achieve, and more expensive, if action is not taken soon, according to a new analysis from IIASA, ETH Zurich, and NCAR. The paper, published in Nature Climate Change, explores technological, policy, and social changes that would need to take place in the near term in order to keep global average temperature from rising above 2°C, a target supported by more than 190 countries as a global limit to avoid dangerous climate change.16 13 http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/download/NCAJan11-2013-publicreviewdraft-letter.pdf 14 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/17/science/earth/un-says-lag-in-confronting-climate-woes-will-be- costly.html?smid=tw-share&_r=2 and http://phys.org/news/2014-01-years-vital-panel.html 15 Arnell N.W., et. al., A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change. 2013. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate1793 (See http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1793.html for abstract and http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/13/us-emissions-climate-idUSBRE90C0E120130113 for summary) 16 Rogelj, J., D.L. McCollum, B.C. O'Neill, and K. Riahi. 2012. 2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 deg C. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1758 (See http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-12/iifa-ncc121312.php for summary.) Packet Pg. 45 Attachment2.1: Climate Change Findings (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 1 Memo To: Lucinda Smith From: Judy Dorsey, Becky Fedak Date: January 22, 2013 Re: Greenhouse Gas Goal Evaluation – Fort Collins Sustainability Services (DRAFT 6) The purpose of this memorandum is to: • summarize the need to review Fort Collins community greenhouse gas (GHG) goals • summarize a set of GHG goal alternatives, including the existing goal • present pathways for achieving each goal alternative • review external factors that could impact goal alternatives, and • offer the pros and cons of each goal alternative to inform community and Council discussion. Benefits of Climate Action Planning and GHG Goal Setting There are many reasons for communities to embrace climate action. First, climate leadership makes good economic sense. Fort Collins’ energy programs saved the community $20 million in 2012 through a combination of direct utility cost savings and indirect benefits, such as purchases of goods and services, which spurs local economic activity. Communities leading the way in climate action are well positioned to attract the most innovation, outside investment, and opportunities to share risk due to their ‘first-to’ mentality. Fort Collins has realized this benefit through various leading programs, including FortZED and the community’s advanced meter infrastructure program. Moving forward, Fort Collins should continue to try new approaches and test new technologies and opportunities as they unfold over the planning horizon through 2050. Staying in front of these opportunities will require thoughtful risk-taking and strategic partnerships to realize the potential of a leadership position. Additionally, reducing Fort Collins’ climate impact can also help it better prepare for future climate disruptions, improve its risk management capabilities, and increase its ability to endure and thrive in an uncertain climate future. While eliminating GHG emissions in Fort Collins may not greatly impact overall global climate change – that will require similar commitments by communities all over the globe to have impact – reducing the community’s own greenhouse gas emissions is important for meeting multiple economic, environmental and social objectives and has many additional benefits. Packet Pg. 46 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 2 Purpose of Goal Setting Goal setting is an important part of the overall climate planning process. By establishing a vision for the future, goals provide a framework for climate planning efforts and serve to focus community attention and action. The process of goal-setting affords a community the opportunity to weigh the pros and cons between degrees of aspiration and pragmatism, desired timing of investment and paybacks, and approaches to risk reduction. There are a number of approaches to goal-setting. A community can set a goal that is built upon a plan to achieve it. Fort Collins followed this approach when first establishing its goal and Local Action Plan in 1999. Alternatively, a community can establish an aspiration goal or vision first and then develop either a plan to achieve the long-term goal or an interim plan towards a milestone along the way. Fort Collins followed this latter approach in 2008 by first establishing goals for 2020 and 2050 and then developing the Climate Action Plan, an interim strategic plan that illuminated most of the pathway towards the 2020 goal. Setting ambitious near-term goals without a defensible path for achievement increases the potential for goal failure, which can cause disengagement within the community, reducing support and participation. Analyzing potential goals for their overarching merit and probability of success leads to outcomes that build momentum and engender ownership in the plan. Opportunity to Review Goals The Brendle Group is providing an evaluation of alternative community greenhouse gas (GHG) goals. In June 2008, City Council adopted goals to reduce Fort Collins’ community GHG emissions 20 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 and 80 percent below 2005 levels by 2050. This was followed by a Climate Action Plan (CAP) that was adopted in 2008 and provides a strong framework for making progress toward the goals. Since 2008, advancements in climate science and technology as well as updates to various City plans make this an optimum time to re-evaluate Fort Collins’ GHG goals: • Advancements in scientific findings that underscore the importance of reducing emissions and increasing resiliency in the face of a changing climate • New opportunities, including advancements in energy technologies such as smart grid, vehicle electrification opportunities, changes in the price of energy solutions, new waste reduction strategies, etc., that warrant a fresh look at reduction strategies • Alignment and coordination with several major planning initiatives underway in Fort Collins, including updates to the 2009 Energy Policy, completion of a new Road to Zero Waste Plan (Draft in October 2013), updates to the 2007 Roadmap for Coordinated and Enhanced Green Building Services, and Platte River Power Authority’s 2014 Strategic Plan. GHG Goal Elements There are four core elements that comprise each goal alternative: 1. Boundary (where does the community draw the boundaries of responsibility?) 2. Scope (what emission sources are included?) 3. Magnitude (by how much will emissions be reduced?) 4. Timeframe (by what date will the emissions goals be achieved?) Packet Pg. 47 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 3 The first of these two elements – Boundary and Scope – are determined by the GHG emissions protocol followed by the City and are the same for all goal alternatives. The City has recently adopted the methodology of the International Council on Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) Community Protocol; ICLEI’s methods have been incorporated into the City’s 2012 community GHG inventory. The City’s Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Quality Management Plan from August 2013 includes a definition of these boundary and scope conditions. Boundary For the purposes of the Community GHG Emissions Inventory, the City limit provides the geopolitical boundary for electricity and natural gas usage and solid waste and recyclables data, and the Growth Management Area (GMA) provides the boundary for transportation data. Emissions that result from activities taking place within these community boundaries and that are controlled or influenced by City of Fort Collins policies and programs are included in the City’s annual Community GHG Inventory. Scope The Community GHG Emissions Inventory is categorized by direct or indirect emissions into Scopes. Scope 1 consists of direct emissions and includes emissions from natural gas usage and mobile combustion sources (e.g., ground travel), excluding rail. Scope 2 emissions are indirect emissions from consumption of purchased electricity that occur as a result of activities that take place within the inventory boundaries, but occur at sources located outside the government’s jurisdiction. Scope 3 are other indirect emissions resulting from activities such as transport-related activities (e.g., air travel for city residents that occurs outside the inventory boundary), and emissions associated with the management and disposal of solid waste generated by the community. The second two elements – Magnitude and Timeframe – are the focus of this GHG goal evaluation. All proposed goals for Fort Collins are calculated based on a reduction from a baseline year of 2005. A 1990 baseline was also considered that would result in more aggressive goals, but rejected because of the challenges associated with developing an accurate 1990 baseline, Additionally, a 2005 baseline aligns with Colorado’s statewide goal. GHG Goal Alternatives The first step in evaluating GHG goals is to identify and define goal alternatives. Coordinating with the City staff, three goal alternatives were identified during the Fall 2013 with an eye towards ensuring Fort Collins maintain leadership and innovation in the climate action space. Table 1 provides a summary of the three goal alternatives. This table is followed by a short description of each alternative and why each has been included as an option in this analysis. Packet Pg. 48 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 4 Table 1. Summary of Fort Collins GHG Goal Alternatives Goal Description Potential Interim 2020 Milestone Goal Average Annual Reduction Alternative A. Keep Current Long-Term Goal 30% below baseline 80% below 2005 baseline by 2050 1.8% Alternative B. Increase Magnitude 40% below baseline 100% below 2005 baseline by 2050 2.2% Alternative C. Accelerate Timeframe 50% below baseline 80% below 2005 baseline by 2030 3.2% Historical Emissions Reductions 9% below 2005 by 2012 1.2% Alternative A: Keep current long-term goal This alternative includes reducing GHG emissions 80 percent below the 2005 baseline by 2050. This option was included because it represents the current City of Fort Collins goal as well as the State of Colorado goal. For context, a straight-line interpolation between 2005 and 2050 would require a 27% reduction below 2005 by 2020. This 2050 goal is the same as the current goal adopted by Portland, Oregon; York, England; and Madison, Wisconsin , among others. Alternative B: Increase magnitude of goal to carbon neutral (100% reduction) This alternative would achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 with an interim milestone of 33 percent reduction by 2020, for context. This alternative reflects a more aggressive approach than the existing goal by increasing the magnitude of emissions to be eliminated from the community’s inventory. Seattle, Washington; Copenhagen, Denmark; and Melbourne, Australia have adopted goals for carbon neutrality by 2050. Alternative C: Accelerate achievement of current goal by 20 years This alternative includes reducing GHG emissions by 80 percent below the 2005 baseline by 2030 rather than 2050 − an acceleration of 20 years. In order to achieve this accelerated timeframe, the straight-line interpolation would result in an interim milestone of 48 percent reduction by 2020. This alternative reflects the scenario presented in a recent white paper developed by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) to inform Energy Board and Energy Policy discussions and reflects a significant acceleration of the existing goal. The RMI paper addressed the questions of “How far?” and “How fast?” could Fort Collins move towards a prosperous, secure and clean energy future. However, it is even more aggressive than the RMI white paper because it includes the City’s entire emissions inventory whereas the RMI paper focused on Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions only, which do not include solid waste, air travel or water process emissions. Figure 1 depicts each of the goal alternatives along with the projected emissions forecast from 2012 as well as the average trend in emissions reductions since 2005. For simplicity this analysis assumes a linear reduction trajectory for each of the goal alternatives, however, to achieve any of these leading edge goals will require transformative pathways that likely won’t look linear in their implementation. Both short term efficiency and distributed renewable energy implementation with longer term urban design and transformation of the transportation and electric grids will be required. Potential pathways to achieve each of the goal alternatives are outlined in more detail in the following section. Packet Pg. 49 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 5 Figure 1. Fort Collins GHG Goal Alternatives Emissions Forecast Spheres of Influence for Achieving Goals Each of the proposed goal alternatives will require implementation of strategies at different rates and magnitudes in order to be achieved. Evaluating these pathways and the potential implications of each is an important step in selecting the most appropriate goal for Fort Collins. In general, the City government has four broad areas of potential authority through which it can influence energy use: 1. Financial—Use of incentives, financing mechanisms, procurement, pricing 2. Regulatory—Ordinances, fees, codes and standards 3. Innovation/Technology—Grants, pilot adoption 4. Education/information—Education and outreach Table 2 displays the potential application of these forms of influence in relation to the three major areas of GHG emissions. Table 2. City Government Options for Influencing Emissions Reductions Form of Influence Energy Transportation Waste Financial Incentives/rebates; financing, electric rates and time of use and other pricing signals Incentives; transit investments; subsidized programs Incentives to encourage waste diversion Regulation Code requirements, building information requirements Parking management Disposal restrictions; required recycling opportunities Innovation – Technology Demonstration projects; city leading by example; grants/competitions to foster innovation Access to alternative fuel infrastructure (e.g., electric vehicle charging stations); city leading by example Demonstration projects for alternative uses for waste Education – Information Outreach; program promotion; social marketing, utility data accessibility Outreach; program promotion; social marketing Outreach; program promotion; social marketing Packet Pg. 50 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 6 Taking these forms of influence into consideration, there are various pathways and approaches Fort Collins could to take to achieve each of the goal alternatives. As a starting point, a number of existing planning efforts have been leveraged and built upon to sketch out proposed reduction pathways illustrated in the figures below. These existing efforts include the recent RMI white paper (Stepping Up: Benefits and Costs of Accelerating Fort Collins’ Energy and Climate Goals), the Road to Zero Waste Plan (December 2013), and planning efforts conducted under FortZED. More detailed analyses will be needed to clarify the steps and pathway towards each alternative. The first step in developing a pathway to emissions reduction is defining the business-as-usual (BAU) forecast. The BAU forecast for this analysis takes the most recent GHG inventory year for the City of Fort Collins (2012) and applies an annual growth rate to each emissions source based on anticipated growth in each sector. Details on these growth rates can be found in Attachment A - Assumptions Summary. Part of the analysis included evaluating each of these pathways by emissions source: electricity, natural gas, transportation, and waste. The estimated reduction pathway for each emission source takes into consideration the proportional contribution of each source to the community’s GHG inventory to determine how much reduction is required by that emission source. Additionally, the planning studies mentioned above were used to determine the magnitude of reductions within each emission source that are estimated to be achievable based on various case studies and data sources. In this way, the pathways were built from the bottom up, based on what is predicted to be possible, rather than top down based on what is required to achieve the goals. Using this bottom up approach, within each emissions source, some basic meta-strategies were considered: • Energy – building efficiency, electric supply, fuel switching from natural gas to electricity • Transportation – fuel economy, miles reduction, alternative transportation fuels • Waste – waste diversion Table 3 summarizes the decadal emissions targets for each of the three alternatives and the gap that needs to be filled to achieve each of these targets. Figures 2-4 illustrate a potential pathway for each goal alternative and the required contribution by each emission category. Table 3. Decadal Emissions Targets and Gap after Existing Program Reductions (MT CO2e) 2020 2030 2040 2050 Business as Usual Emissions Forecast 2,300,000 2,500,000 2,700,000 2,900,000 ALTERNATIVE A: Keep Current Goal Emissions Target 1,800,000 1,400,000 920,000 490,000 Gap to Achieve Target 560,000 1,200,000 1,800,000 2,400,000 ALTERNATIVE B: Increase Magnitude of Goal to Climate Neutral Emissions Target 1,600,000 1,100,000 540,000 0 Gap to Achieve Target 720,000 1,400,000 2,200,000 2,900,000 ALTERNATIVE C: Accelerate Achievement of Current Goal by 20 Years Emissions Target 1,300,000 490,000 New goals and future actions New goals and future actions Gap to Achieve Target 1,100,000 2,000,000 New goals and future actions New goals and future actions Packet Pg. 51 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 7 Figure 2. Potential Pathway for Goal Alternative A Figure 3. Potential Pathway for Goal Alternative B Packet Pg. 52 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 8 Figure 4. Potential Pathway for Goal Alternative C Electricity and Natural Gas In 2012, electricity consumption represented over half of the GHG emissions generated by the Fort Collins community while natural gas contributed an additional 17 percent. Incorporating a variety of efficiency and conservation approaches and interventions as presented in the RMI white paper will be required in these sectors, especially electricity, to achieve any of the goal alternatives: 1. More aggressive and widespread adoption of conventional and cost-effective technologies 2. Behavioral and smart control strategies that optimize how building occupants use energy 3. Integrative design approaches that consider energy efficiency opportunities in renovations and new construction 4. Aggressive engagement with industrial energy users to reduce process related emissions Considering RMI analysis, as well as detailed planning studies conducted for FortZED, it is estimated that overall emissions can be reduced by around 20 percent from baseline through the planning horizon through these efficiency and conservation measures. Any additional energy emissions reductions are expected to come from a combination of switching from natural gas fuel to electricity and renewable energy generation. In order to achieve the defined outcomes for goal alternatives, a nearly carbon free electricity supply would be required along with some natural gas fuel switching. To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality under alternative B, steps would need to be taken to increase natural gas fuel switching in order to achieve completely emissions free energy consumption (both electricity and natural gas). Energy generation strategies are estimated to reduce overall emissions by an additional 35 to 40 percent from baseline through the planning horizon. Overall, electricity and natural gas pathways to achieve the proposed goal alternatives are estimated to reduce overall emissions of 55 to 65 percent below the 2005 baseline. Packet Pg. 53 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 9 Figure 5. Electricity Decadal Targets, reduction below 2005 baseline Figure 6. Natural Gas Decadal Targets, reduction below 2005 baseline Packet Pg. 54 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 10 Transportation Gasoline and diesel fuel consumption for ground transportation in Fort Collins contributed 23 percent to the 2012 emissions inventory; air travel contributed an additional 4 percent, bringing total transportation related emissions to just under 30 percent of the total 2012 inventory. Outside influences, such as new national fuel economy standards and increased adoption of electric vehicles, will help reduce transportation related emissions in Fort Collins resulting in an estimated 2 to 7 percent reduction in overall emissions from baseline. However, to achieve the alternative goals, additional steps will be required within the transportation sector as presented in the RMI white paper: 1. Reducing vehicle miles traveled by Fort Collins residents through smart growth, alternative commuting options, intelligent transportation systems, and pricing signals like parking fees 2. Accelerating the adoption of fuel-efficient and electric vehicles These advanced transportation strategies, including a 30 percent reduction in vehicle miles travelled per person as well as an accelerated shift to fuel-efficient and electric vehicles, have the potential to reduce overall emissions by an additional 15 percent. While air travel is included in Fort Collins’ GHG inventory, none of the pathways presented here include strategies that would directly reduce emissions from air travel. Strategies such as promotion of teleconferencing and “Stay-Cations” could result in some reduction of emissions in this sector, but have not been estimated here. Overall, based on meta-strategies that are projected for Fort Collins, transportation related pathways to achieve the goal alternatives are estimated to reduce overall emissions by around 10 percent below the 2005 baseline, depending on the alternative. Figure 7. Transportation Decadal Targets, reduction below 2005 baseline Packet Pg. 55 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 11 Waste Solid waste emissions contributed to 8 percent of Fort Collins’ total emissions in 2005 and 3 percent in 2012. Though it is a smaller emissions source, the community has taken great strides to reduce waste generation. In fact, the overall waste diversion rate in the City was almost 58 percent in 2012. In December 2013, City Council adopted a goal to achieve 100% diversion (zero waste) by 2030, which would eliminate emissions associated with Fort Collins’ waste stream. Achieving this zero waste goal would reduce overall emissions 8 percent below the 2005 baseline. Figure 8. Waste Decadal Targets, reduction below 2005 baseline (sector related emissions / overall emissions) Local Offsets For alternative B and the goal of carbon neutrality, some emission sources, namely airline travel and a small portion of ground transportation activity, will probably still come from fossil carbon sources given the lack of known alternatives. One possible path for Fort Collins to offset these emissions would be to develop excess on-site renewable energy generating capacity within the City or region to address any remaining emissions. The relative contribution of this excess generating capacity as compared to the other pathways is shown by the local offsets wedge in Figure 3. Another path to offset the emissions would be to develop a local carbon offset program, possibly focused on local or regional ecosystem services. Pathway Summaries by Decade Figure 9 illustrates the contribution of each emission source by decade. The series of pie charts by decade shown in Figure 10 illustrates how the pathways for the various emission sources would be combined for each goal alternative. The shrinking size of the pie in each decade demonstrates the impact of efficiency and conservation measures intended to reduce Fort Collins’ net GHG emissions. Packet Pg. 56 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 12 Additionally, the shift in make-up of the pie pieces shows the transition as fossil carbon-based fuel sources are replaced with greener carbon free sources. Figure 9. Pathway Summaries by Decade – Bar Chart Figure 10. Pathway Summaries by Decade – Pie Chart (see next page) Packet Pg. 57 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 13 ALTERNATIVE A: 80% BY 2050 ALTERNATIVE B: 100% BY 2050 ALTERNATIVE C: 80% BY 2030 50% 16% 26% 8% 2005 50% 16% 26% 8% 2005 50% 16% 26% 8% 2005 Packet Pg. 58 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 14 Packet Pg. 59 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 15 External Factors Relevant to GHG Goals and Climate Action Fort Collins does not operate in isolation and has impact on and is impacted by factors outside of the city, many of which are relevant to the GHG goal alternatives. Table 4 summarizes some of the external factors that will need to be considered and addressed as part of Fort Collins’ climate action planning process. Table 4. External Factors, Related Impact, and Proposed Action External Factor Impact Proposed Action State and Federal Regulations Regulations, such as the state’s renewable portfolio standard (RPS) and federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for vehicle fuel efficiency, will change the GHG emissions impact of Fort Collins’ electricity and on-road transportation activity, respectively. The estimated impacts of the RPS and CAFE have been built into the goal alternative analysis. For example, CAFE represents a large portion of the 2 to 7% reduction below baseline for outside influences. As Fort Collins updates its Climate Action Plan, the impact of regulations should continue to be evaluated. Population Growth The City anticipates an average annual growth rate of 1.9% through 2020 and $10 billion in new construction over the next 10 years. The business-as-usual emissions forecast includes factors such as projected increases in electricity consumption and population growth, and estimated increases in vehicle miles traveled. Economic and Lifestyle Trends Historical trends point to more energy and resource consumption per capita, not less. As more detailed strategies are developed for the CAP, considerations will be made for targeted programs that address this trend, such as initiatives to reduce plug load energy consumption associated with increased household electronics. Overall Comparison of Goal Alternatives On the basis of the information presented, Table 5 summarizes all three goal alternatives and the pros and cons of each. This summary table is intended to inform further discussion by the community and City Council, eventually leading to the selection of a revised GHG goal for Fort Collins. Packet Pg. 60 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 16 Table 5. Summary Comparison of Goal Alternatives Goal Alternative Summary Cumulative Cost ($M) Cumulative Cost Savings ($M) Cost Effective- ness ($M) Qualitative Comparison Name Magnitude/ Timeline Annual Average Reduction Year By Sector TOTAL By Sector TOTAL NPV Pros Cons Alternative A. Keep Current Long-Term Goal 80% below 2005 baseline by 2050 1.8% 2030 Energy: $770 Trans: $160 Other: $0 $930 Energy: $970 Trans: $380 Other: $0 $1,300 $190 Maintain already adopted direction, consistent with state ; Same as renewables guidance expressed in PRPA’s 2014 Strategic Plan goal; Achieve a positive net present value more quickly Does not position Fort Collins at the forefront of leadership/commitment; may not drive innovation and associated financial benefits that could be realized by more aggressive goal because of less upfront investment our long term financial savings are reduced 2050 Energy: $1,700 Trans: $440 Other: $0 $2,200 Energy: $4,200 Trans: $2,000 Other: $0 Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 17 ATTACHMENT A: Assumptions Summary The following is a summary of the main assumptions included in the GHG goal alternatives analysis. Inventory and Forecast [i] 2005-2012 emissions imported from City inventory reports with the following emission sources included: electricity, natural gas, ground transportation, air travel, solid waste, embodied energy in recycled waste, and water [ii] Embodied energy in recyclable waste was removed from the net emissions considered for the goal alternatives analysis [iii] Beyond 2012, emissions are forecasted using the following growth factors to correspond with the City’s GHG Emissions Inventory Quality Management Plan Emission Source Annual Growth Rate Electricity 0.50% Natural Gas 0.00% Ground Transportation 0.94% Air Travel 1.91% Solid Waste 2.50% Water 1.91% Electricity [i] Current efficiency programs are already accounted for in the BAU Forecast 2011 Community QMP Table 27. Fort Collins Greenhouse Gas Emission Forecast Revisions Electricity Growth Assumption - 0.5% annual growth rate FortZED Planning Tool Growth rate with / without existing efficiency programs = 0.5% / 1.5% [ii] 14% Efficiency Potential from Remaining Conventional Technologies (% reduction from 2030/50 BAU) 5,442 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative A & B 10,720 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative C Stepping Up: Benefits and Cost of Accelerating Fort Collins' Energy and Climate Goals Efficient Buildings Figure 1 Approximately 15% efficiency potential for electricity portion of Part 1 FortZED Planning Tool Estimate 19% savings potential for additional programs beyond existing DSM programs (ESCO Model, LED Streetlighting, and Pre-Pay programs) Derated slightly to match RMI white paper outcomes recognizing targeted FortZED programs may have reduced impact city-wide [iii] 6.4% Efficiency Potential from Controls and Behavior (% reduction from 2030/50 BAU) 2,449 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative A & B 4,824 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative C Stepping Up: Benefits and Cost of Accelerating Fort Collins' Energy and Climate Goals Efficient Buildings Figure 1 FortZED Planning Tool Aligns with estimates in tool for Smart Controls [iv] 21.4% Efficiency Potential from Integrative Design (% reduction from 2050 BAU) – Alternatives A & B 6.4% Efficiency Potential from Integrative Design (% reduction from 2030 BAU) – Alternative C Packet Pg. 62 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 18 8,163 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative A & B 4,824 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative C Stepping Up: Benefits and Cost of Accelerating Fort Collins' Energy and Climate Goals Efficient Buildings Figure 1 Assume same rate applies to electricity and natural gas For RMI accelerated scenario, it was assumed that only 30% of savings potential would be achieved - for 2050 goal alternatives assume full potential would be achieved [v] 8.6% Efficiency Potential from Electricity Substitution (% reduction from 2030/50 BAU) – Pathway A & C 27.5% Efficiency Potential from Electricity Substitution (% reduction from 2030/50 BAU) – Pathway B (3,265) Annual emissions addition (MT CO2e) – Alternative A (10,491) Annual emissions addition (MT CO2e) – Alternative B (6,432) Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative C Stepping Up: Benefits and Cost of Accelerating Fort Collins' Energy and Climate Goals Efficient Buildings Figure 1 [vi] Renewable Electricity Supply used to address any remaining electricity emissions reductions required to meet overall goal [vii] The distinction between what is currently possible versus what is needed to achieve the overall goal for each pathway is based on the assumption that currently possible includes remaining conventional technologies, controls & behavior, and half of the renewable energy strategies Natural Gas [i] Current efficiency programs are already accounted for in the BAU Forecast to align with Electricity assumption 2011 Community QMP Table 27. Fort Collins Greenhouse Gas Emission Forecast Revisions Flat (no growth or decline) [ii] 23% Efficiency Potential from Remaining Conventional Technologies (% reduction from 2030/50 BAU) 2,387 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative A & B 5,194 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative C Stepping Up: Benefits and Cost of Accelerating Fort Collins' Energy and Climate Goals Efficient Buildings Figure 1 Approximately 22% efficiency potential for natural gas portion of Part 1 [iii] 5.2% Efficiency Potential from Controls and Behavior (% reduction from 2030/50 BAU) 537 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative A & B 1,169 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative C Stepping Up: Benefits and Cost of Accelerating Fort Collins' Energy and Climate Goals Efficient Buildings Figure 1 Assume same rate applies to electricity and natural gas [iv] 17.4% Efficiency Potential from Integrative Design (% reduction from 2050 BAU) – Alternatives A & B 5.2% Efficiency Potential from Integrative Design (% reduction from 2030 BAU) – Alternative C 1,790 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative A & B 1,169 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative C Stepping Up: Benefits and Cost of Accelerating Fort Collins' Energy and Climate Goals Efficient Buildings Figure 1 Assume same rate applies to electricity and natural gas For RMI accelerated scenario, it was assumed that only 30% of savings potential would be Packet Pg. 63 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 19 achieved - for 2050 goal alternatives assume full potential would be achieved [v] 7.8% Efficiency Potential from Deep Industry Engagement (% reduction from 2050 BAU) – Alternatives A & B [v] 2.3% Efficiency Potential from Deep Industry Engagement (% reduction from 2030 BAU) – Alternative C 796 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) 519 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative C Stepping Up: Benefits and Cost of Accelerating Fort Collins' Energy and Climate Goals Efficient Buildings Figure 1 Only applies to natural gas For RMI accelerated scenario, it was assumed that only 30% of savings potential would be achieved - for 2050 goal alternatives assume full potential would be achieved [vi] 19.8% Efficiency Potential from Gas Fuel Switching (% reduction from 2030/50 BAU) – Alternatives A & C 46.3% Efficiency Potential from Gas Fuel Switching (% reduction from 2030/50 BAU) – Alternatives B 2,029 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternatives A 4,753 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternatives B 4,415 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative C Stepping Up: Benefits and Cost of Accelerating Fort Collins' Energy and Climate Goals Efficient Buildings Figure 1 [vii] The distinction between what is currently possible versus what is needed to achieve the overall goal for each pathway is based on the assumption that currently possible includes remaining conventional technologies, and controls & behavior Ground Transportation [i] 34% Transportation energy use reduction by 2030 as estimated in RMI white paper 12,013 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) Stepping Up: Benefits and Cost of Accelerating Fort Collins' Energy and Climate Goals Advanced Transportation Figure 1 Includes new national fuel economy standards and to a lesser extent increases in electric vehicle adoption Assume that the estimated savings from these activities would continue to increase beyond the 2030 target year presented in RMI accelerated scenario Calculated % reduction from 2030 Demand with Frozen Efficiency [ii] 19% Reduced Gasoline and Diesel Consumption from Driving Less 3,762 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternatives A & B 4,358 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative C Stepping Up: Benefits and Cost of Accelerating Fort Collins' Energy and Climate Goals Advanced Transportation Figure 1 [iii] 7% Reduced Gasoline and Diesel Consumption from High Efficiency Vehicles 1,447 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternatives A & B 1,676 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative C Stepping Up: Benefits and Cost of Accelerating Fort Collins' Energy and Climate Goals Advanced Transportation Figure 1 [iv] 6% Reduced Gasoline and Diesel Consumption from Electric Vehicles 1,157 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternatives A & B 1,341 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative C Packet Pg. 64 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 20 Stepping Up: Benefits and Cost of Accelerating Fort Collins' Energy and Climate Goals Advanced Transportation Figure 1 [v] The distinction between what is currently possible versus what is needed to achieve the overall goal for each pathway is based on the assumption that half of the required emissions reductions could be achieved currently Solid Waste [i] Diversion 58% 75% 90% 100% Year 2012 2020 2025 2030 2012 - Community graphs 062013-ls.xls (10.02.13 email from Lucinda) 2020, 2025, 2035 - Road to Zero Waste Plan (09.20.13 email from Lucinda) Estimate reduction in landfill gas emissions as a result of increased diversion rate Based on known emissions and diversion rate in 2012 Water Process Emissions (part of FC inventory so included, no specific strategies to address this emissions source) [i] 80% Reduced Emissions from (Waste)water Activity (Alts A & C) 385 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative A 574 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) – Alternative C 2012 Fort Collins Climate Status Report (www.fcgov.com/airquality/pdf/FC2012ClimateStatusReportLowRes.pdf) Water emissions split between Reclamation Facility Process Emissions (15%), Reclamation Facility Digester Gas (18%), and Electricity consumption for Water Treatment and Distribution (67%) Assume 80% of these emissions could be reduced through activities such as water conservation (reduce energy requirements), capturing digester gas for energy generation, and supplying renewable energy for remaining energy requirements 80% Percent of savings attributed to electricity consumption 20% Percent of savings attributed to digester gas and applied to Waste category in wedge diagram [ii] 100% Reduced Emissions from (Waste)water Activity (Alternative B) 481 Annual emissions reduction (MT CO2e) 2012 Fort Collins Climate Status Report (www.fcgov.com/airquality/pdf/FC2012ClimateStatusReportLowRes.pdf) Water emissions split between Reclamation Facility Process Emissions (15%), Reclamation Facility Digester Gas (18%), and Electricity consumption for Water Treatment and Distribution (67%) Assume 80% of these emissions could be reduced through activities such as water conservation (reduce energy requirements), capturing digester gas for energy generation, and supplying renewable energy for remaining energy requirements Because of neutrality of this pathway assume additional steps would be taken to realize net zero emissions impact for (waste)water activities 70% Percent of savings attributed to electricity consumption 30% Percent of savings attributed to digester gas and applied to Waste category in wedge diagram Packet Pg. 65 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 21 UNIT COST Electricity ($ per kWh) 0.09 Source: Norm Weaver, email 06.26.12 (Projected cost of PV Energy) Escalation 0% Assume no escalation for conservative cost savings estimate Natural Gas ($ per therm) 0.60 Source: standard assumption Escalation 0% Assume no escalation for conservative cost savings estimate Gasoline and diesel fuel prices vary by year in accordance with RMI analysis Source: Transportation Analysis_20131015.xls (NPV 2030 tab) EMISSIONS FACTOR Source: 2011 QMP Electricity (lbs/MWh) 1,490 Natural Gas (tons/MMBtu) 0.0597 Transportation (kg CO2/gal) 9.4950 IMPLEMENTATION COSTS Remaining Conventional Technologies Source: FortZED Planning Tool, Average of levelized cost for all existing programs Electricity Residential $ 0.17 per kWh Commercial $ 0.27 per kWh Average $ 0.22 per kWh Source: SteppingUp_ElectricityBuildingsConmbined Model_RMI_2012_1112.xls (Gas Efficiency tab) Natural Gas LCOE $ 4.45 per Dth Controls and Behavior See Remaining Conventional Technologies above, assume same implementation cost per comments in RMI white paper appendix Integrative Design Per Stepping Up Appendix (pg 14), assume NPV neutral Deep Industry Engagement Per Stepping Up Appendix (pg 14), assume NPV neutral Gas Fuel Switching Source: SteppingUp_ElectricityBuildingsConmbined Model_RMI_2012_1112.xls (Fuel Switching tab) Off-The-Shelf Heating Equipment Data Residential LCOE ($/MMBTU) Energy Star Gas Furnace 2.5 Packet Pg. 66 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 22 Cold Climate Ductless Heat Pump 11.30 Commercial LCOE ($/MMBTU) High Eff. Gas Furnace 0.7 High Eff. Air Source Heat Pump 7.11 LCOE ($/MMBTU) Average Heat Pump Cost premium 7.61 Renewables Source: FortZED Planning Tool 33% % Renewables as on-site Solar Estimate from Figure 1 (pg 34) of RMI paper 67% % Renewables as utility Wind Estimate from Figure 1 (pg 34) of RMI paper 17% Solar PV Capacity Factor 35% Wind Capacity Factor Solar Implementation cost ($/W) Year 2011 2020 Cost ($/W); Residential $ 4.50 $ 2.10 Cost ($/W); Commercial $ 3.75 $ 2.00 Cost ($/W); Average $ 4.13 $ 2.05 Cap at $1/W Wind Implementation cost $2.80 Utility Wind, $/W BAU Ground Transportation Efficiency Savings Because considered part of BAU condition savings and cost not included in this analysis Driving Less Source: 2011 QMP (Table 30, weighted average) Average Vehicle Fuel Economy 19.8 MPG Source: Transportation Analysis_20131015.xls (NPV 2030 tab) Assumed cost per VMT 0.75 $ per VMT reduced High Efficiency Vehicles Per Stepping Up Appendix (pg 25), assume no cost premium and replacement based on standard sales projections Electric Vehicles Source: Transportation Analysis_20131015.xls (Current State tab) 36.4 kWh/Gal Gasoline Stepping Up Appendix (pg 25) assumes no cost premium and replacement based on standard sales projections, but Figure 2 in the Stepping Up Report (pg 56) shows this includes $12,500 incentive per vehicle Include a $12,500 cost premium for EVs starting in 2013, linearly decreasing through 2028 Packet Pg. 67 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Brendle Group, Inc., (970) 207-0058 Page 23 Source: Transportation Analysis_20131015.xls (Accelerated EVs tab) Average New Cars Purchased in FC 2,600 (reference IMS for annual numbers) Year Before 2020 After 2020 % of New Cars as EVs 25% 50% Road to Zero Waste For simplification, assume NPV neutral for this small reduction strategy Water For simplification, assume NPV neutral for this small reduction strategy Local Offsets Assume local offsets would include purchase of utility scale wind, no associated cost savings Packet Pg. 68 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS By roCky moUntain inStitUte, in partnerShip with fort CollinS UtilitieS aUthorS: Coreina Chan, lena hanSen, JameS newComB, greg rUCkS, JoSh agenBroad primary ContaCtS: Coreina Chan (CChan@rmi.org) and lena hanSen (lhanSen@rmi.org) 1820 folSom Street | BoUlder, Co 80302 | rmi.org download at: www.rmi.org Copyright roCky moUntain inStitUte. pUBliShed SeptemBer, 2013. Packet Pg. 69 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 2 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS taBle of ContentS ExEcutivE Summary...................................................................................................... 3 01: aBOut tHiS rEPOrt............................................................................................... 8 02: iNtrODuctiON: WHy accElEratE fOrt cOlliNS’ climatE gOalS? .................................................................... 12 03: EfficiENt BuilDiNgS ...................................................................................... 18 04: rENEWaBlE ElEctricity SuPPly ........................................... 30 05: aDvaNcED traNSPOrtatiON ....................................................... 46 06: imPlicatiONS.................................................................................................................. 57 07: mOviNg fOrWarD................................................................................................ 62 08: cONcluSiON.................................................................................................................... 65 Packet Pg. 70 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 3 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS eS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Packet Pg. 71 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 4 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS this report examines the opportunity for accelerating fort Collins’ energy and climate goals to reflect the community’s values, and capture economic, social, and environmental benefits. in the five years since fort Collins initially established its current greenhouse gas emissions goals, rapid changes in the cost and availability of clean, energy efficient technologies, together with the emergence of new business models and financing methods for implementing these measures, have dramatically shifted the solutions space for addressing the community’s energy needs. the cost of solar panels, for example, has fallen nearly 75% since 2008, with further dramatic declines yet to come; the retail price for energy-efficient led lightbulbs has fallen by 50% in the past year. these and other changes have opened the door for the City to implement new solutions to reduce emissions and waste, stimulate local economic development, improve security, and reduce risk. aNalySiS aPPrOacH this study provides an independent, forward-looking view of fort Collins’ energy options, based on the latest information about state- of-the-art technologies, policies, and programs. the approach is built largely on accepted methods and findings from rocky mountain institute’s (rmi) nation-wide study, Reinventing Fire: Bold Business Solutions for a New Energy Era, as well as from other relevant studies and meta-analyses, which have been adapted to fort Collins as appropriate and possible. the analysis also takes into account researched case studies and lessons learned from rmi’s related energy consulting and advisory work for cities and states, university campuses, building portfolio owners, and industrial clients. to answer questions about how far and how fast fort Collins could reduce its Co2 emissions, and at what cost, the report first assesses the economic potential for efficiency and renewables in fort Collins and the opportunities for integrative, cross-sector solutions: • How much efficiency is available in fort Collins’ building stock? • By how much could the city reduce fossil fuel consumption from transportation activities? • to what extent could the community’s energy needs be met by both local and centralized renewable energy resources? models for each sector have been developed reflecting the City’s existing and projected building stock, economic and population growth, transportation assets and requirements, electricity distribution system, distributed resource potential and other attributes. to provide a basis for comparing the overall costs, emissions, and other implications of energy policy choices for the City, the study compares an accelerated scenario to a business-as- usual scenario. the business-as-usual scenario analyzes what might happen absent additional intervention; the accelerated scenario reflects a combination of policies and strategies across the sectors aimed at increasing energy efficiency and reducing emissions. While the accelerated scenario “pushes the envelope,” the measures considered and the approaches to implementation are based on rigorous analysis drawing on best practices, technology trends, and plausibly achievable goals for customer adoption. the total cost of the two scenarios is evaluated on a present value cost basis for the periods 2013–2030 and 2013–2050. Because high initial investments in the accelerated scenario confer long- exeCUtive SUmmary exeCUtive SUmmary Packet Pg. 72 5 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS term benefits of reduced fuel and operating costs, the longer time horizon captures the benefit streams more completely for a fair comparison of the consequences of the policy choices considered. today, a growing number of cities and states are already making energy investment choices based in part on a carbon price, and the federal government has recently issued a report that assesses the social cost of carbon starting today. this analysis uses a conservative figure of a “penny a pound” ($22 per metric ton in $2012) to value carbon emissions in both scenarios, with no escalation to 2030. KEy fiNDiNgS this analysis indicates that, in the accelerated scenario, fort Collins can achieve an approximate 80% reduction in Co2 emissions by 2030, two decades ahead of its existing 2050 greenhouse gas reduction target. in doing so, the community could: • reduce building energy use by 31% through efficiency, • achieve a carbon neutral electricity system by 2030, and • reduce transportation energy use by 48%. in the buildings sector, increased investment in energy efficiency could reduce energy use in buildings 31% compared to business as usual by 2030, saving the community $140 million and reducing the cost of meeting future electricity supply needs from renewable sources. • driven by economic growth and increasing population, building energy demand under business-as-usual could increase 19% by 2030 from today’s consumption levels, increasing Co2 emissions by 24%. • through a combination of cost-effective efficiency measures including conventional energy efficient technologies, behavior changes and smart controls, and integrative design approaches, building energy use could be reduced by 31% from business as usual. this would also reduce building Co2 emissions by 30% from business as usual. • fuel switching for building heating would reduce energy use by an additional 8% from business as usual, and Co2 emissions by another 5% by 2030. • achieving these goals would entail achieving an equivalent of 2.4% electricity efficiency savings improvements annually between now and 2030. fort Collins currently targets 1.5% annual efficiency savings (which it achieved in 2012), already putting it among the highest tier of efficiency targets in the nation. By comparison, efficiency Vermont, one of the best-in- class electricity efficiency programs in the nation, has achieved a maximum electricity savings of 3.1% of retail sales in a single year, and 1.8% of retail sales or greater each year since 2007. in the electricity sector, fort Collins can achieve a carbon neutral electricity system by 2030 while providing 25% of electricity supply from local resources. • today, fort Collins Utilities provides its customers with very low cost power—in 2012, the utility’s residential customers paid average monthly bills that were lower than 46 of Colorado’s 53 electric utilities and 40% lower than the national average. exeCUtive SUmmary Packet Pg. 73 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 6 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS • the total present value cost of achieving the accelerated scenario would be 19% higher than the costs of business as usual through 2030, taking into consideration the value of avoided carbon emissions; the equivalent additional cost per person per year from 2013–2030 would be $69. over the period from 2013–2050, however, the total costs of the accelerated scenario would be lower by 14%. this reflects a significantly greater up-front investment that is repaid by dramatically lower fuel costs and reduced exposure to carbon prices over time. • approximately 25% of electricity supply in the accelerated scenario would be provided by distributed resources, largely financed by developers or third parties. • efficient, scaled deployment of solar pV, together with simplified permitting, inspection, and interconnection rules, could result in significant reductions in the “soft costs” of solar deployment with significant benefit for fort Collins' citizens. • Wind generation capacity would increase by approximately 230 megawatts by 2030, providing 45% of fort Collins total electricity supply. • the accelerated scenario would lower cumulative Co2 emissions from electricity generation by 10 million metric tons relative to business as usual between now and 2030, and by 30 million metric tons between now and 2050, equivalent to removing 600,000 cars from the roads for ten years. in the transportation sector, fort Collins could reduce gasoline and diesel consumption by 48% from business as usual, saving $480 million in fuel costs and avoided vehicle maintenance by 2030. • fort Collins could reduce vehicle miles traveled by building on existing smart growth strategies to provide increased access to pedestrian, bicycle, and public transport options. doing so could reduce transportation energy consumption by 30% from business as usual. • less driving means less congestion, and consequently, improved local air quality, and builds on one of the community’s greatest strengths—being a bikable, walkable city. • increased adoption of more efficient and electric vehicles with lower total costs to owners could reduce energy consumption by an additional 18% from business as usual. exeCUtive SUmmary Packet Pg. 74 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 7 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS exeCUtive SUmmary rEcOmmENDatiONS few communities in the nation have the combination of factors that align to make fort Collins a community that can lead in creating forward-looking energy policy for community benefit. these factors include strong and pragmatic civic leadership, manageable size, an innovative and well-positioned municipal utility, workable options for creative transportation policy, and low cost options for clean and affordable electricity supplies. accordingly, it is no surprise that fort Collins’ innovative energy programs and policies, notably the fortZed project, have already attracted national and international attention. By stepping forward to pioneer new approaches, fort Collins has galvanized the support of community leaders and attracted the participation of leading businesses and other institutions in the area. now the City has an opportunity to sustain and advance its leadership position by taking up new goals that leverage existing achievements and opportunities. in doing so, fort Collins could embark on a transformative path of reinvestment in community- based energy systems and put itself at the forefront of innovation nationally—stimulating local economic development, reducing outflows of money from the community, improving security, and reducing risk. imPlicatiONS By 2030, combining results across all sectors, the accelerated sce- nario results in a net benefit of $260 million for the community com- pared to business as usual, and an avoided 15 million metric tons of Co2. By 2050, the accelerated scenario could result in a total net benefit of $2.0 billion compared to business as usual. moreover, the accelerated scenario represents a fundamentally different paradigm for investment in energy-related assets and infrastructure compared with business as usual, providing greater local job creation, economic development, stimulus for innovation, and growth for local businesses. investments in energy efficiency and distributed energy resources along the lines of the path already envisioned for fortZed contribute to the local economy and reduce cash flows out of the community. By investing now in efficiency and renewables, the City can reduce outflows of cash for decades to come. in the accelerated scenario, the amount of money spent on coal and natural gas to generate electricity supplied to the community is lower by an average of $16 million per year compared with business as usual. investment in efficiency, distributed solar power, smart grid, and other local energy assets is higher by $20 million per year. this shift in investment—from distant to local resources—would generate an additional 400–500 jobs within fort Collins over the entire period from 2013–2030. Packet Pg. 75 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY eS 01 about this report Packet Pg. 76 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 9 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS aBoUt thiS report in 2008, the City of fort Collins adopted a climate action target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% from 2005 levels by 2050. five years later, significant opportunities and motivations to accelerate fort Collins’ goals have arisen. today, fort Collins could embark on a transformative path of reinvestment in community- based energy systems and put itself at the forefront of innovation nationally—stimulating local economic development, reducing outflows of money from the community, improving security, and reducing risk. in november 2012, major energy stakeholders including representatives from the City of fort Collins, fort Collins Utilities, Colorado Clean energy Cluster, fort Collins energy Board, and the fortZed Steering Committee came together to explore the opportunities and challenges in creating a clean energy future for the community. participants in that two-day workshop expressed enthusiasm not only for developing strategies to achieve fort Collins’ greenhouse gas emission targets, but also for accelerating the time frame.¹ they posited that not only is acceleration feasible, it could drive local economic growth and system resilience at the same time. this report answers that call to action by exploring “how far” and “how fast” fort Collins can go toward a prosperous, secure, and clean energy future. tHE PurPOSE Of tHiS DOcumENt iS tO: • offer a non-partisan framework for thinking about the community’s full potential for efficiency and renewable energy supply, • provide a foundation for the energy Board and City Council to move forward with a reassessment of the community’s climate action goals, • explore the implications, costs, and benefits of accelerating the City’s goals, • recommend new community-wide and sector based climate action goals, and • identify the most important target areas and strategies to address in an accelerated timeframe. gOal SEttiNg aPPrOacH this report is based on the premise that there are “right steps in the right order” to take in energy goal setting and planning. Before a community decides on an energy target and creates programs to meet that target, it should first understand what is technically and economically possible. How much efficiency is available in fort Collins’ building stock? By how much could the city reduce fossil fuel consumption from transportation activities? to what extent could the community’s energy needs be met by local renewable energy resources? to answer questions about how far and how fast fort Collins can reduce its emissions, this report seeks first to understand the full potential for efficiency and renewables available to fort Collins. ¹ for a Complete liSt of partiCipantS and fUll SUmmary of the workShop, viSit http://www.rmi.org/pdf_fort_Zed_report 01: aBoUt thiS report Packet Pg. 77 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 10 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS the analysis presented in this report was conducted by rmi. an “accelerated scenario” is compared to “business as usual” that represents what might happen in the community absent additional intervention. our approach is built largely on accepted methods and findings from our nation-wide study, Reinventing Fire: Bold Business Solutions for a New Energy Era, as well as from other relevant studies and meta-analyses, which we have adapted to fort Collins as appropriate and possible. We also take into account researched case studies, as well as lessons learned from our own experiences in a range of related energy consulting work. We provide a brief description of our quantification methods, along with major data sources, in the appendix to this report. Understanding the community’s full potential, and quantifying the biggest areas of opportunity, will allow fort Collins to set an aggressive goal along with a rationale for where to focus future program design and set in motion detailed analysis that may be needed for implementation plan development and funding commitment. ²for a fUll deSCription, See: 2012, “City of fort CollinS environmental ServiCeS, Com- mUnity greenhoUSe gaS emiSSionS inventory QUality management plan: yearS 2005 throUgh 2011 and 2020 foreCaSt,” p14. 01: aBoUt thiS report EmiSSiONS ScOPE fort Collins’ current climate action goals are based on reductions in community greenhouse gas emissions—specifically carbon dioxide (Co2), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (n2o)—from Scope 1, Scope 2 and Scope 3 emissions sources.² in contrast, the analysis in this report is limited to the quantification of Co2 emissions from Scope 1 and Scope 2 emission sources. emissions from the embodied energy in materials purchased by the community, as well as from community airplane travel and waste, are not included in our analysis. NExt StEPS fort Collins Utilities plans to submit this report to the fort Collins energy Board for consideration. Should the energy Board recommend the City consider new energy policy and climate action goals, additional analysis may be conducted and recommended goals presented to the City Council. Packet Pg. 78 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 11 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS aBOut rOcKy mOuNtaiN iNStitutE rocky mountain institute (rmi) is an entrepreneurial non-profit with 30 years of research and collaboration experience in the electricity, building, industry, and transportation energy sectors. our mission is to drive a business-led transition from fossil fuels to efficiency and renewables in the United States in ways that strengthen and sustain communities. in 2011, we published Reinventing Fire: Bold Business Solutions for a New Energy Era, a roadmap for eliminating oil, coal, and nuclear energy in the U.S. by 2050, while reducing national reliance on natural gas to one-third of today’s consumption. realizing this vision would provide improved energy services, generate opportunities for job and economic growth, and save $5 trillion in net-present-valued cost while shrinking fossil carbon emissions 86% from 2000 levels. at the invitation of fort Collins Utilities, rmi, as part of on-going work with electricity leaders through the electricity innovation lab (e-lab), convened and facilitated the november 2012 workshop in fort Collins. 01: aBoUt thiS report Packet Pg. 79 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 12 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS image courtasy of ryan Burke IntroductIon: Why accelerate fort collins’ climate goals? 02 Packet Pg. 80 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 13 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS iNtrODuctiON: why aCCelerate fort CollinS’ Climate goalS? it may be surprising to think of fort Collins as being at an urgent energy crossroads. many of us think of decisive moments in the energy sector as ones defined by crisis, whether by a natural disaster that disables the grid or the closure of a critical power plant. We expect brownouts or blackouts that necessitate, very visibly, a different path forward. fort Collins, on the other hand, enjoys lower retail energy costs and service interruptions than most of the nation. its municipal utility has one of the highest annual energy efficiency savings rates. Why is there an urgent need for fort Collins to change its course and take on bolder goals? as a handful of cities in the United States and around the world are starting to demonstrate, the real opportunities in energy don’t precipitate from avoiding disaster. they result from preemptive decisions to capitalize on being first. fort Collins can anticipate the evolving demands and interests of its citizens, and plan strategically in the face of national and regional energy trends. in fact, what constitutes leadership today in energy planning is not sufficient for tomorrow. next-generation cities are the ones making the transition to a clean energy future...and there is no such thing as doing nothing. today’s energy system continues to require operations and maintenance, and also requires major investments and infrastructure upgrades that commit fort Collins for decades or longer. even maintaining the status quo has consequences. five years ago, when fort Collins committed to climate action goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% (from 2005 levels) by 2050, it began the community’s trajectory towards reshaping its energy future, and along with it, establishing the future form and footprint of the city’s energy infrastructure for decades to come. the community is on track to meet an interim 20% reduction target by 2020, and is exploring options for meeting its 2050 target. the coming months present an opportunity for the City to not only revisit that target, but in doing so, ask whether it is ambitious enough. as the City reassesses its emissions targets and energy goals, it could make a bold choice to accelerate the date by which it can achieve its goal. Specifically, this report outlines a pathway by which: FoRt ColliNS CaN aChiEvE aN 80% REduCtioN iN Co2 EmiSSioNS By 2030, two dECadES ahEad oF itS 2050 GhG taRGEt, aNd iN thE pRoCESS: • REduCE BuildiNG ENERGy uSE By 31% thRouGh EFFiCiENCy, • aChiEvE a CaRBoN NEutRal ElECtRiCity SyStEm, aNd • REduCE tRaNSpoRtatioN ENERGy uSE By 48%. 02: why aCCelerate fort CollinS' Climate goalS? Packet Pg. 81 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 14 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS WHat Will BE gaiNED By accElEratiNg? the path that fort Collins chooses to take towards a transformed energy system will impact the long-term benefits that result for the community. on one hand, it’s possible for a majority of carbon reductions to be achieved “remotely.” all future renewable energy could be supplied from centralized resources much like coal-based electricity is today, sourced from locations outside of fort Collins. or, emission goals could be met largely through the purchase of renewable energy credits, offsetting fort Collins’ energy carbon footprint through investments in remote renewable projects. But if fort Collins seeks to advance its local economic development and system resilience while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions, it also needs to consider major investments in community-based solutions. the target suggested here would support local economic development, creating greater price certainty into the future, and sustaining already high reliability in the face of increasing risks. initial analysis indicates that this transformation could be accomplished by 2030 for a net benefit of $260 million as compared to business as usual on a present value basis, with much of the investment directed toward local growth. money, which today flows to remote infrastructure and energy sources, would stay within the community to fund local ingenuity and innovation. fort Collins’ citizens, largely passive in today’s energy system, would drive their own energy future as principal change agents in local building efficiency, distributed power generation, and cleaner transport— becoming long-term benefactors of energy cost savings and other benefits, with a strong sense of ownership in the transformation of their community. Hitting the audacious targets suggested here would dramatically reduce fort Collins’ contribution to climate change and other environmental degradation. Some climate action plans, such as fort Collins's current plan, call for an 80% reduction in Co2 emissions by 2050 in order to limit global warming to 2 degrees centigrade.3 However, many scientists believe that this goal is simply not aggressive enough, calling a 2-degree global warming limit a "prescription for disaster."4 By accelerating its goal twenty years, fort Collins would avoid an additional 22 million metric tons of Co2 emissions by 2050 above and beyond its current goal. By accelerating its goal and leading a rapid transformation of the community’s energy system, fort Collins would draw the best and brightest energy minds throughout the nation. through expanded research, university, and industry partnerships, fort Collins would become a hot bed for established companies and start-up efforts alike, magnetizing funding support and partners, and seeding the creation and growth of innovative local businesses. ancillary businesses would cluster around the burgeoning economy, attracting residents and investors to what continues to rank as one of the nation’s “best places to live.” WHy NOW? national and local trends make it feasible and attractive for fort Collins to depart today from business as usual. Circumstances surrounding fort Collins’ incumbent energy sources (coal for electricity and oil for transportation) create a growing imperative to find alternatives. the nation is moving decisively away from coal; the environmental protection agency’s in-progress rules will effectively prevent new coal plants from being built while shutting 15 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS Capital expenditures required to maintain the nation’s aging electricity infrastructure are translating into higher rates for customers across the nation, inviting scrutiny into energy supply, transmission, and distribution options for the coming years. fort Collins’ current low energy costs do not make it immune. fort Collins has experienced a total rate increase of 41% since 2004, and the community is expecting electric rates to increase an average of another 2% in 2014. meanwhile, exciting alternatives are currently viable from a functional and economic perspective. improved technologies like smart grid, electric vehicles, and thermal storage are no longer “next generation” capabilities but are being adopted today. recent developments in the production of alternative technologies and leasing business models make cost, once an excuse to “buy later,” a compelling reason in many cases to “buy now.” regional utility-scale wind is already cost-competitive for fort Collins. Solar photovoltaics are experiencing steep and persistent cost declines. more efficient vehicles—and even electric vehicles—are competitive today against their conventional counterparts, especially when buyers take into account near term costs for fuel in addition to sticker price. a greater array of effective financing mechanisms and models exists today than ever before to enable community-scale investment and overcome high up-front costs. today’s relatively low cost of capital from public and private sources presents a compelling, and potentially limited, window to invest. auDaciOuS But NOt uNPrEcEDENtED the accelerated fort Collins climate goal is audacious but not unprecedented. Communities around the country and the world are moving towards drastically reducing or eliminating carbon emissions over the coming decades. an 80% carbon reduction goal by 2050 is no longer uncommon in cities and communities ranging from madison, Wis., to Burlington, Vt., to Chicago, ill. Some cities are targeting more than an 80% reduction by 2050, while the most ambitious are moving ahead to be completely renewable much sooner. the specific goals and approaches of leading cities vary significantly, reflecting differences in priorities and timetables. greensburg, Kansas, leveled in 2007 by a tornado, has rebuilt municipal and commercial buildings to leed platinum standards and has eliminated electricity-related carbon emissions by investing in a large wind farm on the edge of town. on a larger scale, San francisco has achieved greenhouse gas emission reductions of 7% below 1990 levels, and is aiming to provide 100% of electricity from renewable sources by 2020. in that effort, San francisco has installed 18.5 mW of in-city renewables, including 15 mW of solar pV. locally sourced, truly clean electricity is always preferred, however some cities are using other means to reach clean energy targets. the City of palo alto achieved carbon neutrality this year by relying on renewable energy credits for a large share of purchases for at least the early transitional years. Santa Barbara is accelerating its own clean energy plans, embarking on a “fossil free by ‘33” campaign that includes permitting a 100 mW wind farm in the county and ordinances requiring all new or remodeled buildings to be carbon neutral. on the other side of the world, Copenhagen is promoting itself as a “living lab” for clean energy solutions in order to increase energy efficiency and renewable energy supply to support its target for carbon neutrality by 2025. By 2012, the danish capital achieved 25% carbon reductions below 1990 levels, and it has a 50-point strategy in place to achieve carbon neutrality. elsewhere, Sydney, australia released a master plan in 2013 to achieve 100% renewable energy for electricity, heating, and cooling by 2030, relying on a diversified energy portfolio and development of decentralized generation sources. 16 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS 02: why aCCelerate fort CollinS' Climate goalS? WHy Will fOrt cOlliNS SuccEED? the biggest challenges fort Collins faces to meeting this accelerated goal are not technical. Success depends largely on the community’s ability to drive down costs, quickly ramp up to landmark levels of community adoption of efficiency and renewables, create and deliver attractive financing mechanisms, and foster effective collaboration between public and private stakeholders. the following unique characteristics put fort Collins in a position of strength: • Significant head start from past successes and existing programs, such as participation in the global reporting initiative, local business commitment and partnership through ClimateWise, the recent renewable and distributed System integration (rdSi) project, advanced metering infrastructure (ami) rollout, on-bill financing, and existing pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly infrastructure. • Momentum gained from the ongoing FortZED projects, which aim to transform the downtown area of fort Collins and the main campus of Colorado State University into a net-zero energy district. fortZed will put fort Collins on a steep learning curve to coordinate unprecedented levels of customer engagement in energy issues, allowing fort Collins to test and extrapolate programs from this microcosm of 7,200+ stakeholders to the larger community. • Benefits from being a municipally-owned electric utility with a collaborative power supply partner, such as greater control of energy decisions, established partnerships in the community, and access to low-cost capital and creative financing. • A highly engaged community with prominent leaders in energy research and awareness (Colorado State University, new Belgium Brewery, Woodward, Spirae and others) whose reputational standing in the community and focus on sustainable initiatives make them effective drivers of change. Colorado State University alone accounts for more than a fifth of fort Collins’ population, and represents a valuable source of cutting edge technical research to help speed fort Collins’ energy transformation. Packet Pg. 84 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 17 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS Figure 1: Fort Collins' 2012 energy profile, in terms of emissions, primary fuels, intermediary fuels, and end uses. 0 5,500,000 11,000,000 16,500,000 22,000,000 2012 Emissions Primary Fuels Intermediary Fuels End Uses Gigajoules RENEWABLES INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES PETROLEUM Source: “FC GHG and RE Data 2005-2012.xls”; City of Fort Collins, 2012. "Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Quality Management Plan 2005-2011," City of Fort Collins, Environmental Services, October 2012. Available at http://www.fcgov.com/climateprotection/FC GHG Quality Management Plan 2012 fOrt cOlliNS ENErgy PrOfilE iN tHiS rEPOrt the way in which energy is used ultimately determines how the community can reduce its carbon emissions and by how much; thus the remainder of this document is organized accordingly. in the buildings chapter, we explore the full potential for energy efficiency based both on how people use energy within buildings and on how an integrated, whole system view can expand that potential. in the electricity chapter, we identify the portfolio of central and distributed technologies that can replace fossil fuel electricity supply, and the key strategies needed to enable them. in the transportation chapter, we assess both the potential to reduce the need for fossil-fueled transportation and the options available to replace it with alternative modes and drivetrains. finally, in the implications and moving forward chapters, we highlight the implications of achieving an accelerated climate goal and suggest key actions the City and community must take to put itself on a path toward a clean energy future. WHErE iS fOrt cOlliNS StartiNg? ninety-five percent of the energy consumed by fort Collins’ today is sourced from fossil fuels: coal, oil, and natural gas. While coal accounts for only 20% of fort Collins’ energy consumption, it is responsible for 99.5% of its electricity Co2 emissions and 55% of its overall Co2 emissions. all of fort Collins’ coal consumption and 0.5% of its natural gas consumption is used to produce electricity; the remaining natural gas is used for heating, cooking, and industrial process heat; and virtually all petroleum is used to produce transportation fuels. as far as end uses, 26% of total energy fuels fort Collins’ residences; 27% its commercial buildings, 11% its industrial processes; and 36% its transportation fleet. 02: why aCCelerate fort CollinS' Climate goalS? Packet Pg. 85 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY eS 03 efficient buildings Packet Pg. 86 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 19 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS effiCient BUildingS By 2030, aCCElERatioN Could REduCE ENERGy uSE iN BuildiNGS By 31% CompaREd to BuSiNESS-aS-uSual, SaviNG thE CommuNity $140 millioN. fort Collins is home to over 65,000 buildings powered by electricity and natural gas. Consider all the equipment we use to light, heat, and cool our homes and workplaces. add to that the computers and appliances we plug in to enable our modern lives. Buildings are responsible for 85% of the community’s electricity consumption and 82% of its natural gas use, costing about $150 million annually and making them the number one contributor to fort Collins’ Co2 emissions. not only is building energy demand significant today, it is expected to increase as fort Collins grows. the community’s near term projected population growth is 1.9% per year—almost three times the national average.⁵ at this rate, business-as-usual efficiency improvements would not be sufficient to curtail energy growth. Without additional intervention, building energy demand could increase as much as 19% by 2030 from today’s consumption levels, increasing Co2 emissions by 24%. the good news is that it’s possible for fort Collins’ buildings to use much less energy while providing the same or better functionality. Building occupants aren’t interested in consuming energy per se; they’re interested in the services provided by energy, such as lighting, heating, cooling, and entertainment. By using more efficient technologies and intelligent, whole-system design, buildings can do more with less, eliminating wasted energy while bringing occupants greater comfort, productivity, and health with less expense. How much better fort Collins’ buildings perform by 2030 depends on the level and type of intervention carried out by the City, owners, occupants, and other stakeholders. our analysis suggests an estimated 18.6% of fort Collins’ total building energy use could be reduced from business as usual through the widespread adoption of conventional, cost-effective, efficient technologies. an additional 5.7% (on average, but up to 12% in some building types) could be achieved through behavioral and smart control strategies that optimize when and how occupants use energy. another 6.8% savings can be achieved through integrative designs that coordinate deep energy saving retrofits with planned renovations or new construction, and through deep engagement with industrial energy users. this brings total reductions from efficiency alone to 31% from business as usual. on top of that, fuel switching for building heating (from natural gas to electricity) could save an additional 8%, bringing total potential reductions in buildings by 2030 to 39% from business as usual. While fort Collins’ current retail electricity and natural gas prices are low compared to national averages, most efficiency measures are even cheaper. initial analysis indicates that reducing total building energy use by 31% through efficiency could yield the community a net benefit of $140 million in avoided utility bills between now and 2030. ⁵ “CommUnity greenhoUSe gaS emiSSionS inventory QUality management plan: yearS 2005 throUgh 2011 and 2020 foreCaSt,” City of fort CollinS, environmental ServiCeS, oCtoBer 2012, p. 38. 03: effiCient BUildingS Packet Pg. 87 20 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS dramatic efficiency savings will benefit fort Collins’ future in significant ways besides and beyond energy cost savings. first, efficiency doesn’t just reduce the environmental impact of the buildings sector, it also speeds the transformation of the entire electricity supply system. the more fort Collins can reduce its energy demand, the smaller the investment required to meet the community’s changing energy supply needs. Second, efficiency is by nature local, requiring onsite skills and labor. at scale, efficiency contributes both directly and indirectly to demand for local service providers and practitioners. third, well-designed, efficient buildings can be healthier and more comfortable than their conventional counterparts, providing better spaces in which to live and work.⁶ finally, efficiency is fort Collins’ cleanest resource, since the resource that produces the least emissions is the energy that isn’t used at all. ⁶ katS, g. 2010. “greening oUr BUilt world: CoStS, BenefitS, and StrategieS.” iSland preSS, inC.: waShington dC. Figure 1: this building energy efficiency potential estimate for Fort Collins is based on a detailed, national-level analysis conducted by Rocky mountain institute for Reinventing Fire, which draws from analysis by National academies and lawrence Berkeley National laboratory. potential savings from industrial process loads, while not strictly addressing building end use, are also included in this potential since they represent a considerable opportunity and also frequently occur in or around buildings. 03: effiCient BUildingS 2012 fOrt cOlliNS BuilDiNgS ENErgy EfficiENcy POtENtial Packet Pg. 88 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 21 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS uNDErStaNDiNg tHE full POtENtial By adapting national findings around technical and economic efficiency potentials to fort Collins’ unique building stock, we can get a sense of the full potential for efficiency in fort Collins. Part 1: An estimated 18.6% of energy could be saved from business-as-usual by 2030, through the widespread adoption of conventional efficient technologies. a significant amount of savings could be achieved simply through replacing existing equipment in buildings with efficient technologies that are currently available and already employed throughout the nation. these technologies—ranging from efficient lighting to insulation—address all the ways people use energy in residences and commercial buildings, such as cooling, heating, lighting, cooking, refrigeration, and plug loads. the cost of conserved energy (CCe) for the conventional efficiency technologies analyzed in this study is, on average, 4.4 cents/kWh cheaper than the price of energy for electricity-saving measures, and $2.33/mmBtu cheaper for natural gas-saving measures. of the 61 end uses we investigated, 60 were cheaper than respective electricity and natural gas retail rates in fort Collins. • Electricity all conventional electricity efficiency measures are cost- effective in fort Collins today. accessing this full potential would be equivalent to reducing total building electricity use in fort Collins by 18.6% relative to business as usual. • Natural Gas all conventional natural gas efficiency measures, with the exception of some for residential water heating, are cost- effective today in fort Collins. if retail gas prices increased by $2/mmBtu for the residential sector, cumulative measures for this end use, too, would be cost-effective. Part 2: Targeting people, not just technology, can capture another 5.7% savings (on average, but up to 12% in some building types) in residential and commercial buildings. after replacing building components with more efficient technologies, an additional 5.7% reduction in energy demand can be achieved cost-effectively by using smart controls and other strategies to encourage changes in how people operate and interact with buildings. after all, buildings don’t use energy, people do. measures in this category borrow from the latest in behavioral science about why and how people actually make decisions. Strategies range from providing real-time feedback on energy use to stirring competition and inciting neighborhood-scale change by letting people know how much energy they are using compared to Figure 2: the average CCE for all conventional efficiency measures, by end use, is significantly less than the retail rate for both natural gas and electricity in all sectors. rEtail ratE fOr ElEctricity aND Natural gaS vs. cOSt Of cONSErvED ENErgy 03: effiCient BUildingS Packet Pg. 89 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 22 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS ⁷ "eleCtriCity impaCt” Chart, opower weBSite, aCCeSSed on 8/19/13. http://opower.Com/ UtilitieS/reSUltS/av their neighbors. as just one example, opower works with utilities nationally to provide customers with information about how their energy use compares to others in their neighborhood, and that information alone has produced a steady state savings of 1.5–3.5%.⁷ fort Collins was one of the first ten utilities served by opower, and is now in the 4th year of this program. the first three-year savings for customers was 2.5%. tactics like these aren’t geared towards occupant sacrifice in terms of service, comfort, or convenience. rather, they seek to raise awareness of, and curtail, wasteful habits that lead to unintended energy consumption, such as leaving the heat on at times when the home is unoccupied. Smart controls can cut energy use without changing individual occupant behavior, for example by automatically setting back thermostats or shutting off equipment during off- hours at work. the nest smart thermostat learns and adapts to a homeowner’s behavior, automatically adjusting the temperature to keep the home comfortable when occupied, and saving money and energy when not. in a similar fashion, fort Collins’ water use dropped 25% during and immediately after the severe drought in 2002. the community has adopted more of an ethic of water conservation, supported by education, metering, and water rates such that water use has not bounced back to pre-drought levels even when water is more plentiful. Part 3: Integrative designs that time deep energy-saving interventions with planned renovations and new construction could capture another 4.9% savings relative to business-as-usual. efficiency improvements can have cascading energy benefits that aren’t typically recognized when measures are considered incrementally, as they almost always are. for example, a lighting retrofit from incandescent to compact fluorescent lamps (Cfls) or halogen reflectors directly reduces lighting loads in a building. But it also reduces the amount of heat generated by the lighting system, which in turn reduces demands on the building’s cooling system. grouping individual measures together to capture these cascading, or “integrative,” benefits can often uncover far greater energy savings per dollar invested than possible through an incremental, measure-by-measure approach. integrative design can be so effective that, in some cases, buildings can achieve high enough levels of efficiency to downsize equipment or entire building systems, resulting in potentially significant reduced or avoided capital costs. fort Collins has existing as well as emerging programs to encourage and assist in integrative design practices for commercial new builds and existing buildings; increased adoption of these will be critical for adopting beyond-conventional savings. for example, fort Collins’ forecasted population growth will lead to construction of new buildings over the coming decades. those new buildings present an important opportunity to “get it right the first time” from an energy efficiency perspective, and integrative design can be an important tool. additionally, the majority of today’s buildings will still be standing in 2030 and even in 2050. integrative design can be employed in these buildings as well, through what is commonly known as a deep retrofit. 03: effiCient BUildingS 23 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS deep retrofits, which are sometimes thought to be too expensive by building owners, can become much more cost-effective when timed to coincide with ongoing capital improvement events in a building’s lifecycle. for example, high-performance windows and led lighting, expensive when planned as isolated efficiency events, can become cost-effective if together they reduce cooling loads enough to lessen or avoid the cost of an upcoming chiller replacement. in fort Collins, coinciding deep retrofits with building repositioning (which is becoming increasingly common throughout local infill developments) could help owners access greater, cost-effective energy savings. in early 2013, the new Buildings institute documented 50 case studies of retrofit projects across the nation that save an average of 40% relative to existing energy use or local codes.⁸ for example, the Johnson Braund design firm purchased a two-story office building built in Washington in 1984 with heating, cooling, and ventilating equipment that was nearing the end of its useful life. instead of simply completing one-for-one equipment replacements, the firm implemented multiple efficiency measures to optimize the building energy performance. the building now operates in the 6th percentile for its building type and uses 47% less energy than a comparable building. figure 1 includes the full potential for energy reductions from employing integrative design practices; we estimate that only 30% of this potential is achieved as part of the accelerated scenario, resulting in the targeted 4.9% savings through this strategy. Part 4: Deep engagements with industrial energy users could cap- ture another 1.9% savings, bringing total potential reduction from efficiency to 31%. potential savings from industrial process loads, while not strictly addressing building end use, are also included in this potential since they represent a considerable opportunity and also frequently occur in or around buildings. Cost-effectively addressing industrial processes, especially those driven by natural gas, requires tailored strategies for individual manufacturers and users, many with unique loads and equipment. While there are hundreds of industrial energy users within fort Collins, only a very small number account for the majority of industrial energy use. direct engagements with these users to target deep savings, including for process loads, could result in additional savings. industrial efficiency efforts have historically suffered from siloed design efforts. Convening experts from multiple disciplines and industries to tackle related problems across fort Collins’ large commercial and industrial energy users could kick-start an effective solution. figure 1 illustrates the full potential for energy reductions from employing deep engagement practices; we estimate that 50% of this potential is achieved as part of the accelerated goal, resulting in the targeted 1.9% savings through this strategy. ⁸ a fUll CatalogUe of the StUdieS Can Be foUnd in the reSearCh liBrary at www.greenBUildingfC.Com 03: effiCient BUildingS Packet Pg. 91 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Part 5: Fuel switching for building heating, from natural gas to electricity, could save another 7.8%. This brings total potential sav- ings to 39% from business-as-usual. for many buildings in fort Collins, building heating and domestic hot water is fueled by natural gas. Viable alternatives exist today, including solar hot water, ground source heat pumps, and air source heat pumps. in fact, implementing these technologies is a common practice in new builds and retrofits today. the challenge for fort Collins will be to help individual buildings right-time implementation to make installation more cost-effective, and to coordinate a high level of adoption at a fast pace. fuel switching is a key lever for meeting aggressive climate target goals, and has been and continues to be incorporated into strategic long term energy plans for cities and regions around the world. for example, the european Climate foundation’s roadmap 2050 report, which lays out a pathway to 80% carbon reductions and provides policy guidance for the next 5 to 10 years to european leaders, addresses fuel switching as a viable and necessary strategy.9 in this study we consider the potential of energy and carbon savings from switching from gas-powered heating to electric heat pumps. 24 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS 9 “roadmap 2050: a praCtiCal gUide to a proSperoUS low-CarBon eUrope,” eUropean Climate foUndation, 2010. http://www.roadmap2050.eU/attaChmentS/fileS/volUme1_fUllreport_ preSSpaCk.pdf 10 "vermont town energy USage and SavingS" workSheet, effiCienCy vermont weBSite, aCCeSSed on 8/15/13. http://www.effiCienCyvermont.Com/aBoUt_US/energy_ initiativeS/vt_town_energy.aSpx 11 “on a riSing tide: the fUtUre of U.S. Utility CUStomer-fUnded energy effiCienCy programS.” CharleS goldman et al., lawrenCe Berkeley national laBoratory, 2012, p3. 12 “California energy demand foreCaSt 2010–2020: Staff draft foreCaSt,” California energy CommiSSion, JUne 2009. http://www.energy.Ca.gov/2009pUBliCationS/CeC-200-2009- 012/CeC-200-2009-012-Sd.pdf acHiEviNg aN EquivalENt Of 2.4% aNNual EfficiENcy SaviNgS iN ElEctricity to fully capture the efficiency potential in electricity, the community would need to achieve an equivalent of 2.4% electricity efficiency savings improvements annually between now and 2030. fort Collins currently targets 1.5% (met in 2012) annual efficiency savings, already putting it among the highest tier of efficiency targets in the nation. in comparison, efficiency Vermont, one of the best-in-class electricity efficiency programs in the nation, has achieved a maximum electricity savings of 3.1% of retail sales in a single year, and 1.8% of retail sales or greater each year since 2007.10 achieving a sustained 2.4% savings per year is unprecedented but achievable. to date, five states in the U.S. (California, Connecticut, massachusetts, rhode island, and Washington) require utilities to pursue all cost-effective efficiency measures.11 and it is important to note that efficiency savings numbers reported by utilities around the country may be underestimating the full amount of efficiency being achieved, since they rarely reflect efficiency driven by codes and standards or “naturally occurring” efficiency that people perform absent a utility incentive or mandate. for example, California’s energy demand forecast 2010-2020 shows a cumulative 2.8% savings from utility and public agency programs over the period, a 7.7% savings from codes and standards, and a 3.7% savings from naturally occurring efficiency in 2008.12 03: effiCient BUildingS Packet Pg. 92 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 25 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS 13 2012 energy effiCienCy indiCator, gloBal reSUltS, JUne 2012, inStitUte for BUilding effiCienCy, JohnSon ControlS. 14 over a doZen StUdieS provide evidenCe SUggeSting a 3 to 6 % rent premiUm and 10% or more SaleS priCe premiUm (See CodeS 15.71 and 15.72 of green BUilding finanCe ConSortiUm re- SearCh liBrary, www.greenBUildingfC.Com) 15 new BUildingS inStitUte, 2011. eleven CaSe StUdieS from: a SearCh for deep energy SavingS in exiSting BUildingS. http://newBUildingS.org/proJeCt-profileS-SearCh-deep-energy- SavingS ¹⁵ miller, pogUe, goUgh, & daviS, green BUildingS and prodUCtivity, JoUrnal of SUStainaBle real eState, no. 1-2009. aSSUmeS average of 250 SQUare feet per worker and aCtUal average Salary of tenantS of $106,644. 16 miller, pogUe, goUgh, & daviS, green BUildingS and prodUCtivity, JoUrnal of SUStainaBle real eState, no. 1-2009. aSSUmeS average of 250 SQUare feet per worker and aCtUal aver- age Salary of tenantS of $106,644. cOuNtiNg BENEfitS BEyOND ENErgy cOSt SaviNgS numerous studies and surveys show that, compared to their average market counterparts, energy-efficient green buildings boast reduced absenteeism, better employee health, higher occupancy rates, increased sales prices, increased productivity, higher property values, and decreased risk. today, most owners and investors for existing buildings ignore the full range of potential value, instead basing their retrofit decisions on energy costs alone, with an average allowable payback period of only 3.4 years.13 However, because the cost of energy is on average about one-tenth the cost of rent or mortgage and about one-hundredth the cost of employee-occupants, energy costs are just a small piece of the affected value when a building is upgraded. leading-edge building owners are beginning to shift how they value energy performance to align efficiency projects with core priorities for business. past and emerging studies are helping to quantify the amount of value beyond energy cost savings, suggesting rent premiums of 3 to 6%, occupancy premiums up to 10%, and sales price premiums of 10% or more for investor owned leed certified or energy Star office buildings.14 for example, the investor-owner of the Beardmore building in priest river, idaho not only enjoys the satisfaction of owning a highly sustainable property but also reaps the bottom-line benefit of increased tenant attraction, which in combination with the historic qualities of the building enables him to charge rent 35% above the local average (more than 10 times the value of the energy cost savings).15 Case studies identified years ago in natural Capitalism show a 6 to 16% gain in labor productivity from better thermal comfort, visibility, and quiet. a study based on a survey of 534 tenants in 154 office buildings in 2009 found that tenants in leed or energy Star buildings reported, on average, 2.88 fewer sick days per year per person, resulting in average bottom-line cost savings of $1,228 per worker or $4.91 per square foot.16 mOviNg tOWarDS imPlEmENtatiON even though the value proposition for increased energy efficiency in buildings is compelling, there are challenges to implementation at scale. only a small portion of the cost-effective energy efficiency potential in the U.S. has been captured. So what is slowing adoption? fort Collins faces a number of challenges—some common to other municipalities and utilities and some specific to fort Collins—with a few that rise to the top. though some utilities have piloted successful programs that address one or more of these challenges, no community or utility has addressed all these barriers comprehensively. fort Collins has the opportunity to lead by example, in some cases through applying best practices to date, in other cases developing a best practice required to achieve such aggressive levels of efficiency savings quickly. Challenge 1: People have little awareness of energy issues and have competing priorities. Beyond cost, financing, and information, efficiency is simply not a priority, or is too much of a hassle, for many people. Very little is possible without good data, yet there is a surprising lack of good information available to service providers and customers throughout the U.S. electricity sector. 03: effiCient BUildingS 26 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS Strategy: Implement new approaches to increase motivation and enthusiasm, and provide relevant, timely, and compelling information. a prerequisite for increasing motivation is to provide education, transparent information, and normative messaging to build a case for action. a wide range of useful information can help building owners and occupants alike, including: knowing exactly how much energy is being used by what end use at any given time, understanding how electricity prices change over the course of a day, the efficiency performance of a home before it is purchased, information about new technologies that could save more energy at less cost, and understanding how individual action contributes to community and societal goals. in fort Collins, the utility has begun to build this foundation by rolling out advanced meters that are needed to gather and communicate information and by promoting home energy audits to identify what homeowners can do to improve efficiency. examples of additional strategies the City could take include mandating energy audits at times of sale, making relevant non-confidential customer data available to service providers to help target solutions, leveraging its smart grid investments to provide time-of-use data and pricing to customers, providing user-friendly reporting metrics, enabling smartphone real-time monitoring and feedback, and labeling of building energy performance. 03: effiCient BUildingS Building on that foundation, one of—if not the—most significant actions fort Collins can take is to develop approaches to support increased adoption of efficiency by making efficiency and conservation part of the community’s culture. examples of potential strategies include developing a community organizer approach, direct installations for customers, utilizing innovative approaches that make efficiency savings fashionable and a point of pride, increasing codes/standards, and gamification and neighborhood competition for energy savings and solar pV penetration. furthermore, supporting the development of a residential energy services company (eSCo) model could help drive participation by simplifying the time and effort required by an individual homeowner. Challenge 2: Fort Collins has a high percentage of historically hard-to-reach customers, yet a need to scale efficiency quickly. there is no one-size-fits-all answer for efficiency. While not unique to fort Collins, the community has a highly fragmented building population making a rapid, deep efficiency roll out difficult. for example, there are a high percentage of residential rental properties with a high churn rate, a high percentage of residential customers living in multi-family buildings, and a diverse small commercial sector. achieving the target efficiency improvement means that the community cannot only target “low hanging fruit,” or the largest customers, but must instead target greater adoption of both individual, incremental measures, and deeper, tailored approaches. Packet Pg. 94 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 27 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS Strategy: Tailor and phase programs to specific leverage points in individual market segments. fort Collins Utilities has already increased annual efficiency savings from negligible levels a few years ago to 1.5% today, in part, by tailoring programs to specific targets. recognizing the fragmented nature of the building population, the City should continue down this path by segmenting the market, aided by data newly available from its advanced meter rollout, and identifying the unique issues and leverage points in each segment. this approach will allow efficiency programs to most effectively drive scale in each segment. While the majority of fort Collins’ existing efficiency programs are targeted at individual end-uses or technologies (for example, rebates for more efficient light bulbs), the community can achieve greater savings by understanding the total energy use profiles of specific customers and pursuing comprehensive energy savings. often these “deep” savings can be most cost-effectively achieved when timed with a planned retrofit or system replacement. the City should also consider how to phase efficiency programs to be timed with expected capital expenditures in individual buildings (e.g. building permits, change of use, time of sale). examples of innovative, tailored approaches already being piloted by the City include: targeting efficiency programs for multi-family buildings that impact a large number of customers through fewer select projects, and developing a deep retrofit program that rewards whole-system savings.¹⁷ Challenge 3: There are high up-front costs and misaligned economic incentives. efficient technologies, like most renewable technologies, require an up-front capital expenditure to accrue savings later. that up-front cost can be a significant hurdle for some people, especially those with other priorities and limited capital. Because efficiency requires a capital expenditure but results in operational cost savings, there is a misaligned incentive between owner and tenants in both residential rental properties and leased commercial properties. the owner is responsible for capital upgrades, but tends to invest in the lowest cost technology rather than the most efficient, since she doesn’t pay the utility bills. the tenant bears the burden of high utility bills each month, but has little incentive to invest capital in a rental property. and though many efficiency measures are cost-effective, savings from an individual measure may only amount to a few dollars per month. the potential aggregate financial savings from efficiency are significant from a community perspective; from an individual perspective, they may not be. ¹⁷ for example, See “going deeper: a new approaCh for enCoUraging retrofitS,” kelly Smith and mathiaS Bell, inStitUte for BUilding effiCienCy (JCi) and roCky moUntain inStitUte, SeptemBer 2011. http://www.inStitUteBe.Com/inStitUteBe/ media/liBrary/reSoUrCeS/exiSting%20BUilding%20retrofitS/iSSUe_Brief_deep_pro- gramS_for_retrofitS.pdf 03: effiCient BUildingS Packet Pg. 95 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 28 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS Strategy: Provide new solutions to economic, financing, and misalignment issues. fort Collins Utilities has already begun to address these issues by providing efficiency incentives and an on-bill financing program. there are many other creative strategies that could be incorporated, including: • address the owner-tenant split incentive by driving increased adoption of programs that provide rebates directly to the property owner rather than the tenant, adopting an energy code for rental housing, or by developing financing options that offer a meter-based approach. • make investment more attractive to investors by aggregating small projects for scale, and adequately addressing term, interest rates, and transferability. • reassess and make explicit an approach for effectively setting incentives. incentives should be optimized within the boundaries of a portfolio cost of conserved energy (CCe) approach, rather than a per measure approach. • leverage a combination of strategies by introducing new rate structures or incentive programs that encourage both efficiency and solar pV while generating the revenues fort Collins Utilities needs to maintain financial stability. provide access to low-cost financing through interest rate buy downs or loan loss reserves and incentives, while testing novel program designs and customer engagement strategies, some of which are described above. Challenge 4: Fort Collins is small and not solely responsible for its energy system. fort Collins is small compared to many other cities and to other utilities that cover whole regions, so it is at a disadvantage in achieving economies of scale through strategies that work for larger utilities. this affects purchasing power, outreach and communications, and program implementation capabilities. further, Xcel energy rather than fort Collins Utilities supplies natural gas for heating, cooking, and industrial process, so the City has less direct control over natural gas efficiency programs. finally, the value of efficiency (and other distributed resources) is rarely accounted for in current practices for building valuation and appraisals, a constraint that needs to be tackled at the industry level. Strategy: Build partnerships and coalitions to drive economies of scale in cost and in best practices. expand cooperative relationships with platte river and other member cities to build greater economies of scale. in doing so, and in conjunction with Xcel energy, plan for data sharing and develop complementary program rules. Build stronger connections with other public utilities and experts around the country to regularly share efficiency and industry best practices and to strengthen partnerships with national retailers. establish fort Collins as a test bed for the best ideas, attracting both leading technologists and financing. 03: effiCient BUildingS Packet Pg. 96 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 29 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS Challenge 5: There are not enough adequately trained service providers. achieving target levels of efficiency requires not only increased demand for efficiency, but also adequate reserves of service providers who can meet that demand. in fort Collins, contractor expertise and comfort with efficient technologies and design approaches remains a key hurdle. Strategy: Create a highly trained, efficient workforce. Work with contractors to ensure every renovation, remodel, and new construction project aligns with community goals for maximizing efficiency. fort Collins Utilities already has a contractor training program for home energy upgrades. potential strategies for growth include collaboration at the local, regional (e.g. platte river cities), state (e.g. Colorado energy office), and national (e.g. Building performance institute) levels to align work standards, training, and certification approaches. the City could also consider partnering with energy Service Companies (eSCos) that can provide trained workers at scale. Summary By 2030, fort Collins could reduce its building energy use by 31% from efficiency, creating a net benefit of $140 million for the community in saved utility bills, spurring local job growth through onsite construction and building projects, and transforming fort Collins’ buildings into more comfortable and healthier places to live and work. By fuel switching from natural gas to electricity for building heating, fort Collins could save an additional 7.8% in energy use. the barriers to achieving dramatic energy savings are not technical—all the requisite technologies are already in place, and increasingly advanced building technologies continue to come to market. rather, the challenge for fort Collins is to drive landmark community adoption rates of existing and emerging efficiency programs, and to grow the available contractor and provider base to meet increased demand. Because buildings are responsible for 85% of fort Collins’ current electricity consumption, the benefits of increased efficiency adoption is not isolated to the buildings sector. the more fort Collins can shrink the demands of its biggest user, the more viable a near-term future powered almost entirely by renewables. 03: effiCient BUildingS Packet Pg. 97 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY eS image courtasy of new Belgium Brewery 04 renewable electricity supply Packet Pg. 98 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 31 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS renewaBle eleCtriCity SUpply fOrt cOlliNS caN acHiEvE a carBON NEutral ElEctricity SyStEm By 2030. energy efficiency can go a long way towards lowering fort Collins’ energy costs and carbon emissions—but it is not sufficient. By integrating local and centralized renewables, the City can energize local economic development and innovation and enable the transition to cleaner and more secure energy options in other sectors of the energy economy, notably transportation. today, electricity supply accounts for 55% of fort Collins' Co₂ emissions, and from 2013 to 2030 will produce another 17 million metric tons, even after efficiency measures. the majority of these carbon emissions originate from just two coal-fired power plants that together provide 71% of fort Collins’ electricity. fort Collins’ current dependence on coal-fired electricity exposes the community to rising fuel prices (the energy information administration projects a 30% or more increase in coal prices from 2013 to 2030), security and reliability risks, and detrimental air pollution impacts to human health and the environment. Quickly incorporating more renewable energy at scale is critical to fort Collins’ accelerated clean energy strategy. 0 500 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Generation - GWh Business-As-Usual Scenario Accelerated Scenario 0 500 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Generation - GWh 0 100 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Capacity - MW 0 100 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 200 300 Figure 2: the total present valued costs reflected here include investment in the electricity system and also in the building efficiency that influences total electric load. while the accelerated case has significantly higher capital costs, those costs are largely offset by avoided fuel costs over time. 32 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS the portfolio of resources modeled in this study to drive an accelerated carbon goal is shown in figure 1 (p. 31), compared to business as usual, for both energy generation and capacity. in fact, fort Collins is already taking initial steps along this path. platte river power authority (platte river), the generation and transmission utility that provides electricity to fort Collins Utilities, is currently considering additional wind generation that would roughly double the city’s wind supply, along with strategies it could employ to facilitate integration of variable renewables (e.g., new gas capacity). fort Collins Utilities is rolling out advanced meters throughout the community, has established an on-bill financing program, and is actively engaged in designing programs to support rooftop solar financing and smart grid technology. given the abundant renewable resources available in Colorado— together with rapidly improving technology to access these resources—fort Collins electricity supply could be made carbon neutral by 2030. achieving this accelerated goal would require: • meeting the building efficiency savings described in the previous chapter; • driving landmark adoption rates of distributed solar and centralized wind, including enough to offset remaining natural gas generation; and • providing sufficient resource diversity and flexibility (e.g., flexible natural gas generation, demand response, storage, etc.) to ensure robust and resilient grid operations. 2013–2030 ElEctricity SyStEm PrESENt valuE cOSt 2013–2050 ElEctricity SyStEm PrESENt valuE cOSt 04: renewaBle eleC. SUpply Packet Pg. 100 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Figure 3: historical natural gas price forecasts compared to actual. thin blue lines depict the u.S. Energy information administration's expectation for future natural gas prices, as projected in the Eia annual Energy outlook (aEo), 1985-2012 (numbers following each line indicate the year of publication for each aEo report). the orange line depicts the average gas price that actually resulted in each year. the red line shows the 2013 aEo mountain Region gas forecast, the reference case assumed for Fort Collins in this report. 33 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS initial analysis indicates that the total present valued cost of an accelerated electricity scenario would be 19% higher compared to business as usual. By 2050, accrued fuel savings, reduced exposure to carbon costs, and continued efficiency savings could make the present valued cost of the accelerated electricity scenario 15% less expensive than business as usual. a number of key assumptions shape the economics of this transition. two of those—natural gas prices and the cost of carbon— are consistent sources of debate and variability around the country and therefore sensitivity-tested here. as seen in the chart below, natural gas price forecasts are constantly changing, and actual prices often deviate far from forecasted. Both the business-as-usual and the accelerated scenarios above use the energy information administration’s mountain region reference case for natural gas prices. as a sensitivity, we modeled scenarios in which gas prices are 30% higher or lower than the reference case in all years. given that the accelerated case relies on less natural gas than business as usual, higher gas prices would reduce the 2013–2030 present value cost premium from 19% to 15%—supporting the case for accelerated renewables deployment further. Should gas prices be lower than the reference case—persisting at or below recent historic lows—the Eia PrOjEctiONS vS. actual u.S. avEragE WEllHEaD Natural gaS PrOjEctiONS 85 86 87 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 34 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS present value cost of the accelerated case through 2030 would be 25% higher than business as usual. either way, the impact of natural gas prices is limited given the low level of gas in both scenarios. today, leaders like the state of California are already making energy investment choices based in part on a carbon price, and the federal government has recently issued a report that assesses the social cost of carbon starting today. We use a conservative figure of a “penny a pound” (approximately $22 per metric ton in 2012$) to value carbon emissions in both scenarios, with no escalation to 2030. as a sensitivity, we tested a 2013 White House interagency working group forecast that starts at $35/metric ton (2007$)¹⁸ in 2013. doing so would reduce the cost premium associated with the accelerated scenario from 19% to 8%. audaciously shifting fort Collins to a carbon neutral electricity system would have important and compelling outcomes, including: • lowering cumulative Co₂ electricity emissions by 30 million metric tons between now and 2050 compared to business as usual, the equivalent of removing 600,000 cars from the roads for ten years. • Supporting local economic development by (i) creating a long-term market for rooftop solar pV (and energy efficiency) requiring local skilled labor, and (ii) solidifying fort Collins’ reputation as an innovation and sustainability hub, attracting businesses and high-quality jobs. • Building off of fort Collins’ already notable electric reliability to create a truly resilient electric system that will sustain the community into the future. DESigNiNg tHE ElEctricity POrtfOliO Of tOmOrrOW Creating a Diverse Portfolio of Central and Distributed Resources achieving carbon neutrality in fort Collins’ electricity system is not just a matter of driving investments into expanded renewable supply from platte river. it is critical for centrally sourced renewables, notably wind, to be scaled quickly. But local distributed resources like commercial and residential rooftop pV, community pV, and even local energy storage and electric vehicles are key enablers of a more vibrant and thriving energy future for the community. Because of rapidly falling costs of distributed renewable technologies, increased personal awareness and demand, and innovative financing and business models, it’s feasible today for distributed pV and other sources to provide a large share of the renewable resources required to achieve carbon neutrality. Creating a diverse portfolio that includes both central and distributed resources will diversify fort Collins’ supply, ensuring the community’s electricity system will be not only cleaner but more secure and resilient than it is today. fort Collins has a variety of renewable supply options, each with its own attributes and implications. Creating an optimized portfolio requires an understanding of what each supply option offers in terms of affordability, technical feasibility, reliability, environmental performance, and public acceptability. the following table provides a high-level qualitative comparison of various renewable options including distributed and utility-scale solar photovoltaics (pV), wind, ¹⁸ "teChniCal SUpport doCUment: teChniCal Update of the SoCial CoSt of CarBon for regUlatory impaCt analySiS - Under exeCUtive order 12866," interagenCy work- ing groUp on SoCial CoSt of CarBon, United StateS government, may 2013. http:// www.whitehoUSe.gov/SiteS/defaUlt/fileS/omB/inforeg/SoCial_CoSt_of_CarBon_ 35 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS Figure 4: identifying the right mix of energy generation options requires weighing a variety of factors. in this qualitative comparison between different options, a completely black circle signifies “high” and a completely white circle signifies “low” qualitative ability to meet certain criteria. important Criteria to ConSider for different energy generation optionS DiStriButED Pv Commercial & residential rooftops, community solar utility Pv Large-scale, ground mount solar arrays WiND Large-scale windfarms BiOmaSS I.e. Wood, pulp, agricultural residue for cogeneration cHP/ccHP Combined heat and power or combined cooling heat and power Operations (Variable Output) power from renewable resources can fluctuate with the weather, adding variability, and requires smart integration to best shape output system needs. Y Y Y N N Siting (Distributed or Centralized) Smaller, more modular energy resources can be installed by disparate actors outside of the purview of centrally coordinated resource planning. D C C C/D D Potential to Provide Value Beyond Energy Generation Value beyond energy generation can include benefits to grid operations and total system efficiency. for example, distributed resources can reduce line losses, defer capacity investments, and minimize land impacts. renewable resources can act as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices. Combined heat and power increases efficiency by utilizing waste heat. Potential for Cost Reduction different technologies are expected to see on-going cost reductions to a greater or lesser extent. for example, scale and technology development continues to drive rapid solar cost reductions, whereas wind is a more mature technology and costs are expected to decline less rapidly. Potential to Support Local Economic Development different forms of energy generation can bring local jobs, attract outside investment, and further the city’s standing as a beacon of innovation. for example, local resources like distributed pV may foster a local base of knowledge and jobs associated with installation, operations, maintenance, and management, whereas centralized resources may not to the same extent. Potential for Improved Environmental Performance, Beyond CO2 Emissions environmental impacts of energy generation can extend beyond emissions to health impacts, degradation in land use, erosion, soil, water, and wildlife. and biomass. Combined heat and power (CHp), although generally natural-gas fueled, is included as well because of its high efficiency and potential to be fueled by renewable sources such as biomass. 04: renewaBle eleC. SUpply 36 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS affOrDaBility fort Collins Utilities provides its customers with very low cost power—in 2012, the utility’s residential customers paid average monthly bills that were lower than 46 of Colorado’s 53 electric utilities and 40% lower than the national average. that sets a high bar for renewables to compete on cost. the good news is that renewables’ fuel is free, their energy price is locked in for decades, and their capital costs are either already low or falling quickly. the following chart shows a levelized cost comparison between utility- scale resources, reflecting both current and forecasted costs. in 2011, rocky mountain institute forecasted that the levelized costs of utility-scale solar pV would decline 13% to 19 cents/kWh by 2015, yet actual installed projects in 2013 have already achieved and surpassed that forecast. in June, 2013, the City of palo alto signed a contract for 80 mW of utility-scale solar pV at a levelized cost of just 6.9 cents/kWh (including the federal investment tax Credit).19 recent wind projects in the mountain West report prices below 4.0 cents/kWh.20 distributed solar pV has a similar story, with reported installed prices having fallen 6%–7% per year from 1998 to 2011.21 along with the advent of solar financing models that, for example, allow customers to put solar on their roof for zero dollars down, this has resulted in a rapidly accelerating distributed solar market. in fort Collins, residential rooftop solar pV now costs approximately 12 cents/kWh for a homeowner-owned system, including federal, state, and local incentives. these costs are approaching fort Collins’ 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.5 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2013 $/kWh Source: Q1 2013 LCOE Ranges, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2013; Annual Energy Outlook 2011, Energy Information Administration, 2011; "Reinventing Fire: BOLD BUSINESS SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEW ENERGY ERA," Amory Lovins and Rocky Mountain Institute, White River Junction, Vermont: Chelsea Green, 2011. Year of Installation Biomass Incineration Wind Utility PV New Coal Hydropower Combined Cycle Natural Gas 19 weSoff, eriC. "palo alto goeS Solar, 80 megawattS at 6.9 CentS per kilowatt-hoUr". greenteChmedia. http://www.greenteChmedia.Com/artiCleS/read/palo-alto-Ca-goeS-Solar- Cheaply-80-megawattS-at-6.9-CentS-per-kilowatt-ho 20 lBnl. 2012 wind teChnologieS market report. aUgUSt 2013. http://newSCenter.lBl.gov/newS-releaSeS/2013/08/06/new-StUdy-findS-that-the-priCe-of-wind-energy-in-the-United- StateS-iS-near-an-all-time-low/ 21 wiSer et al. traCking the SUn vi. lBnl. JUly 2013. Figure 5: levelized Cost of Electricity (lCoE): the renewable costs shown exclude tax credits and similar subsidies. Centralized sources of renewable electricity offer attractive pricing in the near term. utility pv becomes competitive with new coal around 2030 and joins the ranks of the most cost-effective sources of non-hydro renewable electricity over a longer time horizon. distributed resources such as rooftop and community pv are not shown because they do not compete in the same space. WHOlESalE lEvElizED cOSt Of ElEctricity (lcOE) cOmPariSON 04: renewaBle eleC. SUpply Packet Pg. 104 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 37 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS average residential rate of 8.6 cents/kWh, with some systems already reporting lower costs and continued cost reductions likely in the next few years. more importantly, by developing a city-wide strategy to deploy solar pV at scale, even greater reductions in cost can be achieved, especially in so-called “soft costs” of solar systems including costs of finance, customer acquisition, permitting, inspection, and interconnection. flExiBility Beyond cost, any future electricity system scenario must also be able to provide power at least as reliably as fort Collins’ current system. Because electricity cannot be easily or cheaply stored, utilities must maintain a delicate balance of supply and demand at each moment to keep the lights on. this becomes more difficult with the addition of variable renewable resources that produce power when the sun shines or when the wind blows, not when the utility necessarily wants it. therefore, a critical part of an electricity system transformation in fort Collins is the addition of flexibility resources— devices or resources whose output can be adjusted to match variability produced by the combination of load and renewables. Beyond platte river’s existing natural gas peaking plants and any new combined cycle natural gas capacity that could be developed, local sources of flexibility that may be available in fort Collins include demand response (already available in fort Collins in limited quantities), customer-sited thermal or electrical storage, and electric vehicles (eVs), as well as the grid intelligence needed to access those resources. demand response—the ability to modulate when energy is demanded, not just when it is supplied—has the potential to provide a significant source of flexibility to fort Collins. fort Collins Utilities’ recent doe-funded renewable and distributed Systems integration (rdSi) project demonstrated the capability of a portfolio of demand- and supply-resources, including demand response, to reduce peak demands on a distribution circuit by 20%. elsewhere in the country, demand response is now allowed to bid into wholesale markets, providing a significant portion of new capacity needs. aggressive adoption of electric vehicles as discussed in this report’s transportation chapter could result in electrification of up to 30% of fort Collins’ light duty vehicle transportation fleet by 2030 (about 20,000 vehicles). if unmanaged, this sizable fleet could present challenges for the grid when large numbers of electric vehicle owners plug in their cars after work, rapidly driving up fort Collins’ peak demand and therefore costs. But actively managed, electric vehicles can be staged to manage peak impacts and potentially even provide services back to the grid. another critical lever in enabling a more optimized, localized electricity system is grid intelligence—smart grid technologies that enable two-way communication between the utility and customers, supporting real-time information and signals as well as more effective control and coordination of distributed resources. Smart meters and smart grid infrastructure form the foundation for more distributed grid operations and ultimately a more granular grid, enabling the kind of results fort Collins has tested with its rdSi project and other on-going initiatives. 04: renewaBle eleC. SUpply Packet Pg. 105 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 38 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS mOviNg tOWarD imPlEmENtatiON this analysis shows that eliminating carbon emissions from fort Collins’ electricity system by 2030 can be affordable, but that does not mean it will be easy. Very few communities in the country have set such ambitious goals, and successfully overcoming inherent challenges would put fort Collins among an elite group of leaders. Challenge 1: Success requires driving unprecedented levels of adoption of distributed resources, and customers have historically been largely uninvolved in the electricity system. eliminating fossil fuels from fort Collins’ electricity supply by 2030 is an ambitious goal, and meeting that goal largely with local resources makes it even more challenging. in the accelerated scenario modeled in this report, fort Collins would need to achieve landmark levels of adoption of distributed resources, primarily solar. rooftop solar adoption in fort Collins has grown with the availability of solar leasing offers over the last several years but overall penetration remains low compared with leading states such as California. Strategy: Implement new approaches to increase customers’ motivation and enthusiasm; and provide relevant, timely, and compelling information. Understanding what motivates people and how they make decisions can help ensure that policy-oriented measures to increase solar adoption are effectively implemented and conveyed to their intended beneficiaries. fort Collins Utilities can facilitate greater adoption through more targeted marketing based on individual customers’ solar potential, costs, applicable incentives, and broad dissemination of program information to customers. further, an approach to “right-time” rooftop solar installations with re-roofing could be developed. Solar is a uniquely visible resource whose adoption can be driven by peer effects more than other sources of renewable power. Carefully targeting highly visible installations across the city (possibly including an educational exhibit with information on the incentives that make such installations cost-effective) can serve as a good starting point to propagate early adoption. 04: renewaBle eleC. SUpply Packet Pg. 106 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 39 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS Figure 6: Fort Collins’ projected technically and economically feasible solar adoption rate in the accelerated scenario draws from two best-in-class examples, applying a logistic “S-curve” projection for how adoption would evolve. Actual PV Penetration* Projected PV Penetration Pathway for Fort Collins 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Fort Collins Theoretical Potential: 30% of Total Generation PV % of Total Generation *Creti et al 2013, Bonnefoy 2009, Guldolin and Mortarino 2010: Distributed solar adoption is well-approximated by a logistic S-curve. Incentives and feed-in taris help catalyze acceleration and can impact the steepness parameter of the curve. **FC curve reflects more moderate adoption than Gainesville, which is now considering sunsetting the program due to upward rate pressure from faster-than-expected adoption. Source: Clean Coalition, accessed 2013, http://www.clean-coalition.org/unleashing-clean/success-stories/; Gainesville Sun, Feb 2013, http://www.gainesville.com/article/20130220/ARTICLES/130229936 Fort Collins Germany Gainesville Near term adoption rate is highly accelerated. Similar to Gainesville, FL.** Over time, adoption rate resembles that of Germany. DiStriButED SOlar Pv aDOPtiON iN fOrt cOlliNS in the first few years of the accelerated scenario, fort Collins’ solar adoption would resemble that of gainesville, florida, a city with about the same population as fort Collins that instituted a feed-in tariff incentive in 2008 to kick-start implementation. in later years up to 2030, fort Collins’ adoption would be equivalent to sustaining germany’s solar growth on a logistic S-curve that tails off at 30% of generation. the germany analog for pV adoption entails two conservatisms: first, fort Collins needs 30% less installed capacity to generate each kilowatt hour of electricity because sunny fort Collins enjoys more annual solar resource than cloudy germany. this will allow fort Collins to either exceed germany’s rate of adoption, or meet it with less capacity, or both. Secondly, locally applying a nationwide trend overlooks the ability of well-coordinated and well-positioned communities such as fort Collins to achieve accelerated local rates of adoption. fOrt cOlliNS accElEratED SOlar aDOPtiON PatHWay 04: renewaBle eleC. SUpply Packet Pg. 107 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 40 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS Challenge 2: Distributed resources have high up front costs. a renewable portfolio has higher capital costs but lower operating costs (since the fuel is free) compared to conventional resources. While the higher capital investment associated with the accelerated scenario pays back over a longer time horizon, it still presents a challenge for customers with respect to up-front financing. Historically, solar pV’s total installed cost was dominated by the technology—the photovoltaic module and inverter. But these hardware costs have dropped so much in recent years that the “balance of system” (BoS) costs—all cost components other than the inverter and module—now comprise the majority of total installed cost. BoS costs include installation labor; overhead costs, including office administration, property-related expenses, and insurance; customer acquisition costs, including marketing and advertisement; installation hardware such as racking and mounting brackets; and permitting, inspection, and interconnection costs. Unlike pV modules that are a global commodity, BoS costs vary from community to community because of different approaches to permitting, installation, and other processes. furthermore, given the nascent stage of most regional U.S. solar markets, many installers often operate at low efficiency, have poorly configured supply chains, or have great difficulty accessing financial solutions for their customers. Strategy: Drive down distributed resources' costs and provide new solutions to financing issues. the City needs to be innovative in employing a full array of financing mechanisms based on methods used in other communities, other industries, and the financial sector to ensure stable electricity prices during this transformation. already moving in this direction, fort Collins implemented an on-bill financing (oBf) program in January 2013, although it has thus far seen limited uptake. third-party financing has proven to be a market accelerant for residential and commercial building solar pV markets, nationally and in fort Collins. a further market accelerant are feed-in-tariffs (fits), which have resulted in solar pV booms in several european countries as well as in a limited set of U.S. jurisdictions, since they provide clear price signals to customers and lower financing costs due to long-term, predictable credit dynamics.22 affordability and accessibility are two key criteria for successful financing programs. one solution that enhances both attributes is on-bill repayment (oBr), which, unlike oBf, enables equity ownership of systems by third-parties, with the accessibility benefit of a single power bill, not available in typical third- party solar pV leases and power purchase agreements. Solar pV financing is highly dependent on the monetization of its considerable tax benefits, thus generally relying on for-profit, third-party (tax equity) investors to enable the lowest customer 22 “the tranSformation of SoUthern California’S reSidential photovoltaiCS mar- ket throUgh third-party ownerShip,” eaSan drUry et al, energy poliCy, 2012. http://CleanteChniCa.Com/2011/11/22/gaineSville-florida-Bigger-per-Capita-Solar- prodUCer-that-California/ (aCCeSSed 8/22/2013) 04: renewaBle eleC. SUpply Packet Pg. 108 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 41 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS pricing. When oBr for solar includes limited loss reserve protection by the utility, cost of capital is lowered and thus affordability further improved. oBr, particularly with a utility loss reserve, lays a foundation for deeper relationships with the utility, which can become more valuable over time. a further accessibility benefit of oBr can be achieved by layering on virtual net metering (community solar or otherwise) opportunities and credit against-the-meter. Both virtual net metering and against-the-meter credit determinations enhance accessibility to renters and building owners with poor solar or other distributed resource access. Better financing solutions should allow fort Collins Utilities to phase back incentives over time, and focus budgeting decisions on stabilizing utility economics. Budgeting determinations for the utility are best served by offering volumetric capped fit offerings, but with enough forward- market certainty to avoid boom-bust cycles for the local distributed resource supplier and investor base. Beyond financing, fort Collins can directly and substantially influence solar balance of system (BoS) costs, with the potential to reduce them enough to bring the levelized cost of rooftop solar pV in line with residential rates. germany has set a precedent for capitalizing on this type of opportunity. there, soft costs—customer acquisition, installation labor, and permitting, interconnection, and inspection—are 73% lower than in the U.S. achieving significant BoS cost reductions in the U.S. requires first adopting best practice recommendations from the Solar america Board for Codes and Standards’ Expedited permit process for pv Systems and Emerging approaches to Efficient Rooftop Solar permitting23 and ireC’s Sharing Success: Emerging approaches to Efficient Rooftop Solar permitting.²⁴ Best practices include over-the-counter, same-day permit review; clear, accessible webpages focused on the permitting process; exempting small systems from requiring building permit review; and providing consistent and current training for inspectors. further, fort Collins could develop a “cookie cutter” solar design, combine building department permitting with the utility interconnection process, and leverage the City to aggregate demand and resulting purchasing power up the hardware supply chain. 0 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 BOS: Customer Acquisition, Permitting, Interconnection, Inspection, Overhead BOS: 42 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS these approaches have been successfully implemented elsewhere in the U.S. and are proven to reduce costs: massachusetts successfully implemented a bulk purchasing “solarize” program in several communities that lowered installed costs from the state average by over 25%.²⁵ the City of denver, together with other partners, recently offered its employees a group-discounted rate for solar pV installation of $3.80/W,²⁶ a remarkably low rate secured through a scaled group purchase. fort Collins, too, has revised its processes, earning gold level recognition from the Solar friendly Communities initiative; the City now has an opportunity to move towards platinum recognition. finally, a proven method for reducing BoS costs is to optimize the number of days spent installing a system, since every reduction in installation cost has a corresponding reduction in overhead costs.²⁷ to meet this goal, specific strategies and tactics need to be developed, such as employing a revamped pV system inspection protocol allowing for self-certification of pV installs by certified solar installers. these BoS cost reductions in combination with on-going module and inverter price reductions can propel fort Collins toward the U.S. department of energy’s SunShot target of a total installed cost of $1.50/W by 2020,²⁸ which would allow Solar pV to be installed well under the cost of grid electricity in fort Collins without local subsidy. Challenge 3: Distributed resources have different benefits and costs compared to centralized resources, and the system is not set up to measure or monetize those values. distributed resources have unique siting, operational, and ownership characteristics compared to conventional centralized resources. the value of distributed resources is temporally, operationally, and geographically specific and because of that, existing pricing mechanisms are not in place to recognize or reward service that is being provided by either the utility or the customer. it is critical to better understand the services that distributed resources can provide, and the benefits and costs of those services as a foundation for more accurate pricing and market signals. the categories of benefit and cost are broadly agreed on, but some are not readily quantifiable or are not generally monetized in electric rates. for example, distributed solar coupled with storage could potentially provide voltage regulation services to the grid, but the value of that service does not accrue to the customer who made the investment. ²⁵ preSentation By yoUngBlood, eliZaBeth. "the SolariZe maSSaChUSettS program". maSSaChUSettS Clean energy Center, 2013. ²⁶ See http://www.SUStainaBleBUSineSS.Com/index.Cfm/go/newS.featUre/id/1920 for more information. ²⁷ rmi’S Simple BoS proJeCt iS working to CharaCteriZe the BoS CoSt divide Between germany and the U.S. throUgh a lean proCeSS approaCh, on-Site time-and-motion StUdieS, indUStry interviewS, and SUrvey-BaSed data ColleCtion. the proJeCt haS foUnd leading inStallerS are already very CloSely approaChing germany-CaliBer BoS CoSt levelS. ²⁸ U.S. department of energy. SUnShot viSion StUdy. feBrUary 2012. http://www1.eere. energy.gov/Solar/pdfS/47927.pdf 04: renewaBle eleC. SUpply Packet Pg. 110 43 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS Strategy: Assess distributed resources' benefits and costs, and develop appropriate mechanisms to value them. fort Collins can ensure accurate accounting for the additional values distributed energy resources provide—including environmental benefits, avoided generation capacity, avoided transmission and distribution capacity, avoided line losses, and fuel price hedging—by first conducting a study to assess the magnitude of these values on the fort Collins system, then by adapting pricing and incentive mechanisms accordingly. an example of how these values are being recognized elsewhere is austin energy’s Value of Solar tariff (VoSt).²⁹ in austin energy’s case, fully-valued distributed solar pV is actually worth more than its retail price, creating an appealing value proposition for the utility and, in turn, for the community. of course, the total value that distributed solar pV would provide to fort Collins varies from this example, based on factors such as the quality of the solar resource and the future need for electricity capacity. fort Collins has a foundation from 0.02 0.04 0 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 Environmental Benefits Energy Generation Generation Capacity Savings Transmission Loss Savings & Distribution Capacity Savings Fuel Price Hedge Value Total Value Levelized Cost (2013 $/kWh) 12.8 /kWh Source: Rabago, K., Norris, B., Ho , T., Designing Austin Energy's Solar Tari Using A Distributed PV Calculator. Clean Power Research & Austin Energy, 2012. PrOPErly valuiNg DiStriButED SOlar ²⁹ raBago, k., norriS, B., hoff, t., deSigning aUStin energy'S Solar tariff USing a diStriB- Uted pv CalCUlator. Clean power reSearCh & aUStin energy, 2012. Figure 8: austin’s value of Solar tariff provides a tangible—if incomplete— proxy for distributed solar pv valuation. 04: renewaBle eleC. SUpply Packet Pg. 111 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 44 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS which to build such an approach—platte river now purchases energy from fort Collins’ solar power purchase program based on specific valuation factors. Challenge 4: Operating a more distributed, diverse system requires integrating new sources of flexibility and developing new coordination and communications approaches. Unlike almost any other consumer product, electricity has no shelf life—it cannot be easily or cheaply stockpiled or stored. electricity demand and supply must be perpetually balanced, and when that balance is disrupted, brownouts and blackouts result. introducing renewables such as wind and solar makes maintaining that balance more challenging because unlike coal, natural gas, or hydro plants, output from wind and solar varies with the weather. further, the electricity system vision presented here is much more dispersed—25% of generation is from distributed sources by 2030. this provides advantages, but only if the mechanisms for deploying and managing these variable and distributed resources are in place alongside the hardware to generate them. the need for flexibility will require use of available natural gas generation, incorporation of a broad array of storage resources (like demand response, electric vehicles, thermal storage, and potentially even battery storage), and real-time grid monitoring and dispatch that is much more responsive. Strategy: Support the integration of flexibility resources including smart grid, demand response, and electric vehicles; and begin to implement advanced coordination and communications strategies. in part because of a decades-old decision to underground fort Collins’ electricity distribution lines, fort Collins has just one third the system interruptions compared to the national average. effectively and reliably operating fort Collins’ electric system with very high levels of renewables requires innovative new approaches, including full utilization of the utility’s smart grid capabilities, expanding demand response potential, and integrating electric vehicles with smart charging capabilities. fort Collins already has efforts underway in a number of these areas, is home to several leading smart grid technology companies, and has completed one successful demonstration project (the rdSi project). the City should leverage these strengths to remain at the leading edge of flexibility resource adoption and integration. the key to maintaining reliability is developing a portfolio of resources that work together seamlessly. there are several reasons why fort Collins is well positioned to manage this issue smoothly and maintain reliability. fort Collins does not have to balance its system alone; it is part of a larger balancing area operated by Xcel energy, providing significant operational benefits and ancillary services, and easing the integration of renewables. platte river is also considering new strategies for providing flexibility in the form of load following to support higher integration of variable renewable resources. 04: renewaBle eleC. SUpply Packet Pg. 112 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 45 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS further, fort Collins Utilities’ on-going smart grid rollout will provide more granular, timely data about electricity usage and eventually enable the utility to send signals to customers to provide additional grid flexibility. finally, there is active support and engagement around demand response and electric vehicles, each of which can provide grid flexibility. fort Collins Utilities is procuring a new state of the industry demand response system as part of the advanced meter fort Collins projects and continues to participate in research and development following up on the rdSi project. the electrification Coalition recently launched an initiative to support widespread adoption of electric vehicles. Challenge 5: Fort Collins Utilities' has a contractual relationship with Platte River that disallows purchases from other entities. except for a very small quantity of distributed generation from rooftop solar, all city electricity currently originates from large, centralized sources operated by platte river and Western area power administration. fort Collins is currently under contract with platte river for all its electricity requirements, although under its feed- in tariff (fit) program, fort Collins Utilities will purchase local solar output as an agent of platte river. platte river, in turn, is committed to coal power from the yampa project and rawhide plant 1, which are set to retire in 2030 and 2050, respectively. as fort Collins implements its accelerated strategy for carbon neutral electricity, it will demand significantly less coal-based electricity from platte river. identifying and preemptively addressing any potential impacts on the fort Collins/platte river partnership will be key to ensuring a seamless and mutually beneficial clean energy transition for both organizations. Strategy: Enhance collaborations with Platte River to develop effective strategies that enable more renewables. While much of this chapter has focused on distributed resources like rooftop solar, community solar, and energy efficiency due to their unique benefits and implementation challenges, centralized renewables—particularly wind and utility scale solar—will be a similarly critical resource in fort Collins’ energy future. the wind resource that fort Collins Utility has access to via platte river is extremely cost-competitive and available in the near-term. fort Collins should continue to collaborate with platte river to develop strategies to bring more centralized wind into the mix as quickly as possible. fort Collins’ carbon neutral electricity system by 2030 strategy calls for nearly half of generation from wind, ramping from 7 mW of capacity today (fort Collins’ effective share of platte river’s capacity) to more than 230 mW in 2030. Summary With concerted effort, fort Collins can have a carbon neutral electricity system by 2030. realizing this vision would require $240 million present value added investment, but by 2050 would save $380 million present value, and would energize local economic development and innovation. it would reduce fort Collins’ carbon emissions 10 million metric tons from business as usual by 2030, and would build off of fort Collins’ already notable electric reliability to create a truly resilient electric system that will sustain the community into the future. further, a transformed electricity system would enable the transition to cleaner and more secure energy options in other sectors of the energy economy, notably transportation. the City, fort Collins Utilities, EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 05 eS advanced transportation image courtasy of Shutterstock 05 advanced transportation Packet Pg. 114 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 47 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS advanCed tranSportation By 2030, FoRt ColliNS Could REduCE GaSoliNE aNd diESEl CoNSumptioN By 48% FRom BuSiNESS-aS-uSual, SaviNG $480 millioN iN FuEl CoStS aNd avoidEd vEhiClE maiNtENaNCE. the fort Collins community consumes 58 million gallons of gasoline and diesel each year driving to work and school, delivering products and services, running errands, or just recreating and getting away. driving enables business and life to run smoothly, but today’s transportation paradigm comes with costs. transportation accounts for 36% of fort Collins’ total energy consumption, running mostly on gasoline and diesel fuels. almost all of fort Collins’ oil use is used for transportation. the consumption of these fuels has wide-ranging impacts on the local environment— it’s a major contributor to local criteria air pollutants like nox, So₂, and particulate matter, and on fuel costs to the community. Because liquid fuels like gasoline and diesel are more expensive than other primary energy sources, they account for over half of fort Collins’ energy expenditures. transportation energy accounts for 24% of fort Collins’ total contribution to global Co₂ emissions, thereby also playing a role in fort Collins’ contribution to broader global climate issues, including political and security risks from importing oil. the good news is that aggressive new national fuel economy standards and, to a lesser extent, modest increases in electric vehicle adoption will help to curb fort Collins’ future transportation energy demands, even with projected population increases.³⁰ together, these two developments help to reduce transportation energy use by 22% from today, and comprise the business-as-usual trajectory analyzed in this report. this analysis suggests, however, that there is a potential to reduce fort Collins’ transportation energy use even further—to about half that of business as usual—while also providing greater transport options, ease, and convenience to the community. as described in fort Collins’ 2011 transportation master plan,³¹ the City is already pursuing a number of interventions to capture these benefits. Building on this strong foundation, fort Collins can utilize two broad policy and planning levers. first, it can reduce the need to drive in the first place by implementing strategies like improved urban planning and access to pedestrian, bicycle, and public transport options. doing so has the potential to reduce transportation energy consumption by 30% from business as usual. in tandem, fort Collins could work to dramatically increase adoption levels of more efficient and electric vehicles so that when people do drive, they use less oil. this strategy could further lower energy consumption by 18% from business as usual. Between 2013 and 2030, investments in both strategies would amount to a net savings of $480 million in fuel costs and avoided vehicle maintenance for the community. the benefits of pursuing fort Collins’ full potential for transportation energy savings extend beyond costs savings. With enhanced urban planning and smart growth, people can get places faster and more conveniently. less driving means less congestion, and consequently, improved local air quality. Continuing the work the City has already ³⁰ aggreSSive new national fUel eConomy StandardS Set in 2012 reQUire 54 mpg average gaS mileage for new vehiCleS By 2025. in order to meet theSe targetS, all CarS and trUCkS will BeCome more aerodynamiC, lighter, and have improved engine teChnology. 48 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS started will also continue to build on one of the community’s greatest strengths—being a bikable, walkable city. finally, as was discussed in the electricity chapter, increased electric vehicle adoption can support the integration of renewable electricity resources by providing demand response. uNDErStaNDiNg tHE full POtENtial By adapting national estimates for transportation energy reduction potentials to fort Collins, we can get a sense for “how far” and “how fast” fort Collins can accelerate its own transportation energy reductions. the analysis presented here focuses largely on personal vehicles, which account for the lion’s share—97%—of fort Collins’ total transportation energy use. figure 1, below, summarizes our findings. Part 1 (p.52) Part 2 (p.54) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Trucks Cars Heavy Duty Million Gallons BAU Eciency Savings 23 2030 Demand with Frozen Eciency 68 Driving Less: 30% VMT Reduction per Person 13 Electric Vehicles: EV and PHEVs Reach 50% of New Car Sales by 2020 4 High E. Vehicles: Avg. E. of New Sales Increased Half Way to Best-In-Class 5 2012 Actual Consumption 58 2030 Accelerated 49 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS Part 1: Strategies that make it easier for Fort Collins to drive less can save an estimated 30% of energy from business-as-usual by 2030. on average, fort Collins’ residents drive 7,500 miles per person each year, about 30% less than the national average.³² this is a testament to fort Collins’ large university population (that tends to drive less) and to the great success fort Collins has to date in developing a vibrant, multiuse core with pedestrian and bicycle friendly infrastructure. Considering fort Collins’ size, projected growth, and ongoing transportation initiatives, we estimate annual vehicle miles traveled (Vmt) per person could be reduced 25%-40% from business as usual by further: • increasing smart growth, • improving multimodal and alternative commuting options, • creating and evolving intelligent transportation systems, and • implementing pricing signals and strategies. these tactics are not intended to infringe on the community’s prerogative to drive. rather, they aim to reduce the need in the first place by improving access to destinations and goods, and by providing other benefits that result in fewer, more timely, and shorter trips. on average, driving 30% less would save fort Collins’ residents about $1500 per year per person in avoided fuel and maintenance costs alone.³³ a. Smart Growth Smart growth is an approach to urban and transportation planning that emphasizes increased urban density, mixed use development with commercial, residential, and recreational destinations in close proximity, and interconnected, walkable and bikeable streets. people drive less when the things they need are closer and more easily accessible. a 2007 Urban land institute study concludes that this type of high-density, multi-use space could lead inhabitants to drive 20%-40% less.³⁴ fort Collins’ City plan is predicated on smart growth and development. the City has consistently incorporated smart growth criteria into its development decisions; impacting codes, zoning, and transportation master planning. But certainly not all growth in fort Collins follows smart growth tenets, so there remains significant opportunity to expand smart growth. Because fort Collins’ near term projected population growth rate is 1.9% per year (almost three times the national average), there is likely to be more new growth than in some other places, and smart growth is easier to implement at first development rather than in retrofit. therefore, further emphasizing smart growth could represent an important opportunity for future reductions in transportation energy use. ³² SoUrCe: ornl tranSportation energy dataBook, edition 31 ³³ tranSportation iS the SeCond BiggeSt expenditUre for the average ameriCan (more than food, healthCare, or entertainment). only hoUSing aCCoUntS for a larger Share of per Capita expenSeS. oak ridge national laBoratory tranSportation energy dataBook, taBle 8.3 ³⁴ “growing Cooler: the evidenCe on UrBan development and Climate Change,” reid ewing et al, UrBan land inStitUte, 2007. http://www.mwCog.org/UploadS/Committee-doCUmentS/U1ZBxlk20070921140031.pdf 05: advanCed tranSportation Packet Pg. 117 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 50 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS b. Alternative and Multimodal Commuting Smart growth brings destinations closer and makes walking or taking public transportation easier. this, in turn, makes it more feasible and appealing for residents to switch from single passenger vehicles to alternative commuting (e.g. bicycling, walking, public transit carpooling, etc.) or to multimodal commuting (using several alternative modes to get to a single destination). fort Collins’ current progress towards alternative and multimodal commuting is encouraging. the community is already a demonstrated leader in bike ridership (6.8% ridership compared with the 2009 national average of 0.6%).³⁵, ³⁶ public transit use has also increased rapidly, and now exceeds two million riders per year. the City is currently building the first of several planned enhanced travel Corridors to create multimodal transit links with one of Colorado’s first Bus rapid transit systems. Continuing to improve and invest in these options is an essential complement to the other levers for driving less. c. Intelligent Transportation Systems as personal mobile devices like smartphones become more commonplace and costs for gathering and synthesizing transportation data become cheaper, cities can integrate real-time information from the transportation system into streamlined and convenient user interfaces. doing so would enable commuters to easily access schedule and traffic updates for all transportation modes including cars, taxis, bicycles, public transit, and car sharing. driving less then becomes easier, as the ability to find and confirm alternate modes of transportation becomes more reliable and trips can be planned “on the go.” Some cities (like new york City) are capitalizing on this opportunity by investing and developing intelligent transportation software themselves; others (like Chicago) are making transportation data available for third-party app designers to develop useful and marketable products.³⁷ fort Collins will be developing the next version of its fC trip trip-planning website functionality for handheld or tablet applications, enabling people to more easily access travel information.³⁸ ³⁵ “fort CollinS’ trek to BiCyCle nirvana dependS on more riderS, fewer aCCidentS: elite deSignation iS next goal for City that JUSt aChieved ‘platinUm’ award,” david yoUng, Coloradoan.Com, 6/13/13. http://www.Coloradoan.Com/artiCle/20130613/newS01/306130074/fort-CollinS-trek-BiCyCle-nirvana-dependS-more-riderS-fewer-aCCidentS ³6 "analySiS of BiCyCling trendS in large north ameriCan CitieS: leSSonS for new york," John pUCher and ralph BUehler, UniverSity tranSportation reSearCh Center, 2011. http://www.UtrC2.org/SiteS/defaUlt/fileS/pUBS/analySiS-Bike-final_0.pdf. ³⁷ “By the nUmBerS: CitieS are finding USefUl wayS of handling a torrent of data,” the eConomiSt, 4/27/13. http://www.eConomiSt.Com/newS/United-StateS/21576694-CitieS-are- finding-USefUl-wayS-handling-torrent-data-nUmBerS ³⁸ email CorreSpondenCe with mark JaCkSon, depUty direCtor of fort Collin’S planning, development and tranSportation, 8/22/2013. 05: advanCed tranSportation Packet Pg. 118 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 51 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS d. Pricing Signals as multimodal transport options become more plentiful and convenient, price signals can help the City manage variegated traffic flows from personal vehicles, public transport, cyclists, and pedestrians, especially in congested areas and those with persistent parking issues. fees for parking and congestion, implemented at rush hour and in the busiest areas, will encourage drivers to look for alternatives. the City’s current parking plan (adopted in January 2013) identifies prominent existing parking shortages in downtown and other heavy traffic areas, as well as future parking issues in other locations. the parking plan includes future options to incorporate fees for parking.³⁹ replacing free parking with paid parking is often controversial, but there are some significant benefits to commuters and business owners. Because pricing discourages some commuters from driving, paid parking reduces idling and circling, which accounts for up to a third of downtown traffic and congestion in some cities.⁴⁰ paid parking has also been shown to relieve parking constraints in retail areas, making it easier for people who do need to drive to access shops, increasing business. for example, enforcing pricing on streets like College avenue distributes parking to less busy side streets and parking garages, while also increasing customer turnover.⁴¹ “free” parking comes with high hidden costs that are passed through to the public, business owners, and others for associated land and construction fees. these range between $500 and $800 per year per space, or an estimated $10,000–$20,000 total for fort Collins.⁴² Part 2: An additional 18% of energy could be saved from business-as-usual by accelerating adoption of fuel-efficient autos and electric vehicles. programs to maximize the adoption of fuel efficient autos and electric vehicles can ensure that when people do drive, they’re consuming less oil—or better yet, substituting oil with cleaner energy sources like renewable-powered electricity. Because there is a common perception that hybrid and electric vehicles are more expensive than conventional cars, general consensus is that more time needs to pass before these cars become affordable. But with rapid advances over the last few years, this perception no longer holds true. Sticker prices for high efficiency vehicles, hybrids, and electric vehicles (with incentives) are already competitive today with typical mid-sized vehicles sold in the U.S. after factoring in fuel cost savings, high-efficiency, hybrid, and electric vehicles can all be cheaper to own today than conventional vehicles. planning a transportation future that minimizes emissions and other environmental impacts also requires an understanding of vehicle options in terms of potential for: • further near-term reductions in cost of ownership • environmental impact mitigation • long range, which has been a highly visible limiting factor for the adoption of battery electric vehicles (BeVs) ³⁹ “parking plan fort CollinS: neighBorhoodS,” City of fort CollinS, 1/15/13. http://www.fCgov.Com/advanCeplanning/parkingplan.php ⁴⁰ “CrUiSing for parking,” donald ShoUp, aCCeSS, no. 30, 2007. http://ShoUp.Bol.UCla.edU/CrUiSingforparkingaCCeSS.pdf ⁴¹ “parking plan fort CollinS: downtown and SUrroUnding neighBorhoodS,” pp. i-1–i-3. ⁴² “tranSportation CoSt and Benefit analySiS ii — parking CoStS,” viCtoria tranSport poliCy inStitUte, 2/22/12. http://www.vtpi.org/tCa/tCa0504.pdf. See alSo: “the high CoSt of free parking,” donald ShoUp, JoUrnal of edUCation and reSearCh, vol. 17, no. 1, fall 1997, pp. 3–20, and “the high CoSt of free parking,” donald ShoUp, ChiCago: plannerS preSS, 2011. 05: advanCed tranSportation 52 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS vehiCle deSCription ConSiderationS High efficiency vehicles like the Nissan Versa powered by conventional internal combustion engines burning gasoline or diesel, but with improved mileage due to better aerodynamics, lower weight, and improved engine technology. • do not cost more upfront than conventional vehicles in most cases • Use significantly less fuel (up to 30%–75% less than conventional vehicles) — resulting in significant cost savings and Co₂ emissions reductions Hybrid vehicles like the Toyota Prius rely solely on gasoline or diesel for energy supply but use a combined combustion and electric motor to improve overall efficiency and reuse otherwise wasted braking energy. • Can offer further efficiency gains beyond non-hybrid high-efficiency vehicles • Cost-effective and technologically mature today Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) like the Nissan LEAF run solely on electricity, offering two to three times higher efficiency than gasoline or diesel vehicles. • including incentives, have an equivalent or lower total cost of ownership than other options today. even without incentives, the leaf is cost-competitive today against an average midsize car. • Sticker price will likely continue to fall as batteries get cheaper and automakers gain increased technological experience. • do not emit local Co₂ or other emissions while operating, and will be responsible for little or no emissions as the grid is increasingly powered by renewables. • Currently limited by battery range (e.g. 115 miles for the leaf), a significant constraint in current adoption rates. • Could benefit from investments in public charging stations, but commonly available 120 and 240V outlets are sufficient for most early applications. Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) like the Chevy Volt operate as electric vehicles, but with a smaller gasoline generator that continues to power the vehicle once the battery surpasses its range. • purchase price for these vehicles can be cost-prohibitive without incentives, but prices are expected to fall dramatically in coming years as batteries get cheaper and automakers gain technology experience. Considering state and federal incentives, these vehicles can be cost-competitive. • avoid the range constraint of BeVs. • offer the same emission benefits as BeVs when operating in electric-only mode. Compressed natural gas vehicles (CNG) like the Honda Civic Natural Gas Vehicle natural gas is stored in a pressurized tank and combusted to fuel the vehicle instead of gasoline or diesel. • Have become cheaper to operate as a result of recent low gas prices, but purchase price and first costs for home refueling stations are still prohibitive. • Can be more cost-effective for centralized fleets—e.g. taxis—that share refueling stations and accumulate higher annual mileages. • responsible for approximately 30% lower Co₂ emissions than conventional gasoline-fired vehicles, as a result of natural gas’ comparatively more benign emissions profile, on a per unit energy basis. Hydrogen fueled vehicles (not yet commercially available for light duty personal vehicles) Hydrogen is used to fuel the vehicle, either by fuel cell or by combustion engine. • only offered by a few manufacturers today, as test vehicles in limited numbers • Cost two to five times more than a conventional vehicle. • also requires a potentially large investment for hydrogen distribution and refueling infrastructure. table 1 lists and describes the vehicle types assessed in this report, along with a qualitative summary of important considerations for each. figure 2 compares the current cost of ownership for these vehicles, which includes an analysis of purchase price plus three years of fuel expenses. table 1: vehicle options 05: advanCed tranSportation Packet Pg. 120 53 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS the future 2030 scenario we analyzed is driven by an accelerated adoption of cost effective fuel-efficient autos and electric vehicles, shaped by projected vehicle turnover rates, trends in future vehicle cost reductions, and a limited near-term BeV market due to range constraints. to explore the potential for transportation sector energy reductions we have assumed the following: by 2030, the average fuel economy of new vehicle sales can be raised halfway to best-in- class; on top of that, 50% of all new sales are electric vehicles (BeV and pHeV). as a benchmark, the state of California has achieved hybrid vehicle sales roughly twice the national average, and within some zip codes hybrids exceed 20% of auto sales—four to five times the national average.⁴³ Part 3: Additional energy reductions from business-as-usual can be achieved by transitioning heavy-duty trucks to compressed natural gas and biofuels. as shown in figure 1, heavy-duty trucks account for a significant share of remaining energy consumption as car and light trucking stocks become less oil-dependent. While strategies for reducing this contribution were not explored fully in this analysis, there are several options the City can pursue. the City has been converting public buses to run on compressed natural gas; reducing Co₂ emissions and saving fuel costs in the process. other heavy-duty truck fleets (like garbage trucks) could be good candidates for conversion to natural gas, because they can take advantage of the economies of scale from investing in central fueling stations. Biofuels are also a viable alternative, especially for longer-range applications like freight, because they don’t require as significant fuel tank or fueling station changes. ⁴³ phone ConverSation with UC daviS prof. thomaS tUrrentine, JUne 10, 2013. 0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 Purchase Price 3 Yr Fuel Price Incentives Refuel Station Price MPG Equivalent Conventional: Budget Midsize BEV Hybrid PHEV GM Volt 37 Gas / 98 Elec Civic CNG 31 Nissan Leaf 115 Toyota Prius 50 25 CNG Hydrogen Source: Fueleconomy.gov, EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2011: ref2011.d020911a. $22,000 $6,900 $12,500 $12,500 $5,000 High Eciency Nissan Versa $22,000 $4,650 35 $22,000 54 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS mOviNg tOWarDS imPlEmENtatiON the transformation of the transportation system—both in infrastructure and in vehicle mix—proposed here is significant. addressing the following formative challenges will be critical for implementing a 2030 target. Challenge 1: Tactics for driving less must be implemented over a long timeframe, are harder to measure, and are sometimes un- popular. While smart growth, public transportation, multi-modal transportation, and other strategies to drive less have been proposed for decades around the country, adoption remains low and changing that requires an on-going cultural and behavioral shift in the community. Strategies do not reach their full potential unless integrated well together. Strategy: Double down on all four driving-less tactics, plus focus on effective integration to maximize benefits. the City has recognized the value of smart growth for some time. Capturing the full opportunity will require continued planning and discipline—any new development that is not based on smart growth principles will essentially be locked in for several decades. opportunities to retrofit smart growth through infill or redevelopment are less common, but need to be identified and executed as they arise. Smart growth will encourage alternative and multimodal commuting by bringing destinations closer and improving access to transit hubs. Continued investment in public transit, business commute trip reduction programs, and fleet driver training, combined with seamless integration into the rest of the intelligent transportation System will help users take full advantage of the infrastructure. With strong alternatives to driving in place, paid parking can help provide feedback to users. Challenge 2: Many customers aren’t motivated to prioritize fuel efficiency and don’t understand the value proposition of high ef- ficiency or alternatively fueled vehicles. most people don’t consider fuel cost when they’re at the dealership, and perceived environmental benefits weigh in among a long list of other important shopping criteria. tax rebates that may make these vehicles more economically attractive can be confusing and a hassle. eVs, including both BeVs and pHeVs, have additional challenges: most customers don’t know much about eVs and dealerships aren’t always sure how to sell the value proposition. Strategy: Implement new approaches to increasing customers’ motivation and provide education and outreach around value proposition, drawing from the latest behavioral science insights. the City can help citizens better understand their options, how federal and local incentives work, and perhaps most importantly that they are contributing to shared community and environmental goals. many of the same behavioral science insights discussed with respect to building efficiency and solar adoption in the efficient Buildings and renewable electricity Supply chapters are applicable here as well. research has shown that purchasing a vehicle is as much a statement 05: advanCed tranSportation Packet Pg. 122 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 55 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS of identity or values as it is about function and utility. the City could even reinforce a citizen’s choice to participate in community environmental goals with a sticker or license plate frame that then also serves to spread program awareness. the electrification Coalition is working with fort Collins and local dealerships through its drive electric northern Colorado program to help reach out to customers, raise awareness, and better communicate the eV value proposition. the City is also working to lead by example, purchasing eVs for its own fleet where they make sense, and this program could potentially be expanded. finally, fort Collins can work with its local dealerships to provide education about the eV value proposition in the same way that building efficiency programs work with local contractors and hardware stores to educate customers. Challenge 3: First cost of alternate vehicles is perceived to be pro- hibitive, especially before incentives. While this analysis shows that high efficiency vehicles and eVs can be cost-competitive today, not many car buyers are aware of that. in addition, some models are more expensive, the range of models is limited, and they generally have a high up front cost in exchange for fuel savings later. Strategy: Incentivize the purchase of electric vehicles. fort Collins could potentially drive cost reductions by facilitating bulk purchases, perhaps partnering with other like-minded communities (governor Hickenlooper has taken a similar approach at the state level, but focused on natural gas vehicles). the City can offer additional incentives and benefits to sweeten the deal and further influence behavior. Because the city has limited control over vehicles coming in and out of the city, any incentives or fees must be tightly tied to residency of the purchaser, to avoid gaming the system. implementing property tax or utility-bill-tied incentives are one option. Beyond direct incentives, fort Collins Utilities could also motivate eV purchase through rate design. the city is already exploring a time-of-use rate for customers who charge their eVs at night. finally, fort Collins could reward alternative vehicle owners with favorable parking. 05: advanCed tranSportation Packet Pg. 123 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 56 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS Challenge 4: BEVs have a limited range compared to gasoline or diesel-fueled vehicles. perhaps the biggest challenge to BeV adoption is the limited range of all-electric vehicles. there is a perception that this is a challenge in general, but especially for infrequent longer trips—e.g. to the mountains or for a vacation. Strategy: Find alternative methods of meeting long-range transportation needs. importantly, most daily commutes fall well within the range of all-electric vehicles (over 90% of commuters travel less than 60 miles round trip to work), limiting the scale of the problem day- to-day.⁴⁴ further, more than half of all households have two or more vehicles—making two-car households perhaps the best market for eVs today since they would have a non-BeV available for longer trips. if 50% of these households were to purchase an eV as one of their vehicles the next time they went to the dealership, fort Collins would have 20,000 eVs on the road by 2030, comprising almost 30% of fort Collins’ light duty vehicle fleet. pHeVs offer another solution to the electric vehicle range problem by offering consumers an electric vehicle for city driving, but without the range limitations for longer trips. Bloomberg, mcKinsey, and others predict these vehicles will be cost-competitive by around 2020.⁴⁵ fort Collins can also build out local charging infrastructure at workplaces and businesses to both address any range challenges and build awareness. the City might also explore partnering with rental and car sharing companies to streamline or subsidize access to long-range vehicles for citizens with only a BeV. Summary By 2030, fort Collins could reduce its transportation energy use by 48% from business as usual, leading to a net benefit of $480 million in reduced vehicle fuel costs and maintenance for the community while improving transport options; lessening congestion; improving local air quality; and creating more walkable, bikeable, vibrant neighborhoods. the electrification of fort Collins’ transportation fleet will drive much deeper integration of the community’s energy system—creating new demands on the electricity system but also new capabilities to support the integration of renewable electricity resources. achieving this goal requires, particularly, a consistent, disciplined drive towards changing perceptions of driving and alternative transportation throughout the community, and making driving less and smart growth the norm. ⁴⁴ “tranSportation energy dataBook: edition 32,” StaCy C. daviS, SUSan w. diegel, and roBert g. BoUndy, JUly 2013, oak ridge national laBoratory, figUre 8.4. http://Cta. ornl.gov/data/download32.Shtml ⁴⁵ “Battery teChnology ChargeS ahead,” rUSSell henSley, John newman, and matt rogerS, mCkinSey weBSite, aCCeSSed 8/19/13. http://www.mCkinSey.Com/inSightS/en- ergy_reSoUrCeS_materialS/Battery_teChnology_ChargeS_ahead See alSo: Bnef 4/17/13 eleCtriC vehiCle Battery priCeS reaChing new lowS, Bnef 12/3/13 are eleCtriC vehiCleS BeComing more affordaBle? 05: advanCed tranSportation Packet Pg. 124 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY eS image courtasy of Shutterstock 06 implications Packet Pg. 125 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 58 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS impliCationS efficient buildings, advanced transport, and renewably sourced electricity are interconnected; meeting each of the sector goals has reflexive impacts on the other components of fort Collins’ energy system. By making buildings more efficient, we shrink demand for electricity. this reduces the expense and effort required to meet loads with 100% renewables. at the same time, transitioning cars away from oil and towards electric vehicles adds demand back on the electricity system (albeit to a much smaller degree). finally, even as buildings and vehicles draw power from renewables, they can provide demand response and other modulating services to enable the renewable system to meet the needs of the community. together, the sector assessments presented here indicate that fort Collins has the potential to achieve an 80% reduction (from 2005 levels) in Scope 1 and Scope 2 Co₂ emissions by 2030, essentially speeding its current climate goal by 20 years. By 2030, this would save 11 million tons more Co₂ emissions compared to fort Collins’ existing climate goal and 15 million tons more Co₂ emissions compared to business as usual. achieving this accelerated goal has a net present value savings of $260 million to 2030 compared to business as usual, and a $2.0 billion net present value savings by 2050. Source: “FC GHG and RE Data 2005-2012.xls”; City of Fort Collins, 2012. "Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Quality Management Plan 2005-2011," City of Fort Collins, Environmental Services, October 2012. Available at http://www.fcgov.com/climateprotection/FC GHG Quality Management Plan 2030 Accelerated Scenario Emissions NAT GAS 2005 Actual Emissions 0 600 1,200 1,800 2,400 Thousand Metric Tons COAL NAT GAS PETROLEUM 2012 Actual Emissions COAL NAT GAS PETROLEUM 80% REDUCTION FROM 2005 LEVELS PETROLEUM Figure 1: Fort Collins has the potential to achieve an 80% reduction (from 2005 levels) in Scope 1 and Scope 2 Co₂ emissions by 2030, thereby accelerating its current climate goals by 20 years. cOmPariSON Of 2030 accElEratED ScENariO EmiSSiONS PrOfilE vS. actual 2005 EmiSSiONS 06: impliCationS Packet Pg. 126 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 59 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS Figure 3: in the accelerated scenario, efficiency and renewables meet the majority of future energy demand. lingering fossil fuels, (mostly natural gas for building heating, and oil and natural gas for transportation), account for 32% of the remaining energy consumption, and all Co₂ emissions. Remaining natural gas generation for electricity is offset by increased renewable generation. the accelerated scenario represents a fundamentally different paradigm for investment in energy-related assets and infrastructure compared with business as usual, providing greater local job creation, economic development, and stimulus for innovation and growth of local businesses. investments in energy efficiency and distributed energy resources along the lines of the path already envisioned for fortZed contribute to the local economy and reduce cash flows out of the community. By investing now in efficiency and renewables, the City can reduce outflows of cash for decades to come. NEtPrOfilE PrESENt valuE Of 2030 accElEratED ScENariO ENErgy SOurcE accElEratED ScENariO, 2013–2030 NEt PrESENt valuE Of accElEratED ScENariO, 2013–2050 06: impliCationS Figure 2: while transitioning the electricity system to renewables has a net cost, the net savings of aggressive building efficiency and advanced transportation improvements bring the accelerated scenario to a combined net present value of $260 million to 2030. By 2050, the accrued net present benefit is $2.0 billion. in the accelerated scenario, the amount of money spent on coal and natural gas to generate electricity supplied to the community is lower by an average of $16 million per year compared with business as usual. investment in efficiency, distributed solar power, smart grid, and other local energy assets is higher by $20 million per year. this shift in investment—from distant to local resources—would generate an additional 400–500 jobs within fort Collins over the entire period from 2013–2030. Packet Pg. 127 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 60 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS at top of mind for many are three outstanding questions: • What about the remaining 20% carbon emissions? • What is the role for natural gas in this vision? • Why can’t we get there by purchasing renewable energy Credits (reCs)? WHat aBOut carBON EmiSSiONS rEmaiNiNg aftEr 2030? targeting an 80% Co₂ reduction by 2030 puts fort Collins in a good position to achieve net carbon neutrality across the sectors in the years to follow. in our analysis, the lingering 20% emissions come from end uses that are challenging to wean entirely from fossil fuels in the near-term for both cost and implementation reasons. Creating explicit efforts and programs targeting these end uses will be critical to achieve carbon neutrality in the following years. By and large, the solution will necessarily come from a combination of electrification and bio-based sources. • natural gas used for industrial process heat: While some reduction can be made through individual, deep engagements with industrial energy users in the study period, some natural gas will linger due to the lack of readily-available, cost-effective alternatives to producing process heat. on-going strategies for reduction include integrative design approaches to these industrial processes, and potentially fuel switching. • natural gas used for building heating and domestic hot water: this study assumes some efficiency improvement and some fuel switching for these end uses, but due in part to the long replacement cycles of heating and hot water equipment, such replacement will need to continue, timed with natural replacement cycles. district heating could also be considered. • natural gas used for electricity generation: the accelerated scenario includes a combined cycle gas turbine, built in the first few years of the study period to facilitate lessening fort Collins’ dependence on coal and integrating variable renewables. Carbon emissions from this plant are offset by over-generating renewable energy, but eventually this plant could be replaced entirely with renewables. • oil used for transportation: despite rapid implementation of smart growth strategies and customer adoption of efficient and alternatively fueled vehicles, gasoline and diesel use will continue beyond 2030 because of the nascent state of alternatives, complexity of consumer choice, and long timeframe to fully realize the benefits of smart growth. a continued push towards adoption of alternative vehicles beyond 2030 will ultimately reduce this lingering fossil fuel. WHat iS tHE rOlE Of Natural gaS iN tHiS viSiON? natural gas is the subject of ongoing national debate, on one hand held up as a critical transition fuel and replacement for coal and oil, and on the other hand, criticized for the environmental, health, and climate impacts of shale gas hydraulic fracturing. proponents cite falling prices, significant domestic shale gas reserves with the potential to keep prices low, and comparatively low carbon intensity. opponents cite the environmental and health risks of improper management in the extraction process, skepticism that low prices 06: impliCationS Packet Pg. 128 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 61 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS will persist in the long run, and a view that future price volatility is not only a cost but also a potential major threat to long-term planning around the resource. in fort Collins, natural gas is a convenient option in the short-term to supply those end uses listed above, which are the hardest or most expensive to shift to renewables. in electricity, platte river’s existing natural gas combustion turbines were designed to provide peak power, so running them significantly more is likely cost-prohibitive. on the other hand, new combined cycle natural gas capacity could be built not primarily to supply new load but rather to manage the variability of renewable resources by providing additional flexibility to the system, in conjunction with more local sources of flexibility. from a transportation perspective, fort Collins’ bus fleet runs on biodiesel and compressed natural gas (Cng) today, and will soon be converted to all Cng. natural gas can continue to make sense as a fuel source for other community fleets (e.g. garbage trucks, taxis) where economies of scale can be achieved from centralized fueling stations. for passenger vehicles, though, electricity is likely to win out. WHy caN’t WE gEt tHErE WitH rENEWaBlE ENErgy cErtificatES (rEcS)? When the City adopted its original climate action goals in 2008, it stipulated reCs should not be counted in the community’s progress towards its gHg goals. in fact, fort Collins could meet the same numerical carbon reduction targets with reCs as would be achieved by the accelerated goals, and in doing so, support the demand for clean renewable energy development and ensure that more certified renewable energy is being generated to meet the nation’s energy needs. if it chose to, fort Collins could even purchase enough reCs to become carbon neutral tomorrow (as the City of palo alto has done), and thereon after through 2050 and beyond. However, the cost required to purchase reCs to match the accelerated carbon reduction path, or to meet and maintain carbon neutrality, is significant. that money flows out of the community to support renewable generation elsewhere, without securing the local innovation, job growth, and other economic benefits that fort Collins seeks from investing in efficiency and renewables locally. those costs would recur annually, with no positive returns generated and no long-term investment in the community itself, resulting in significant negative net present values through 2030 and 2050. therefore, rather than serving a primary role in fort Collin’s climate strategy, reCs are likely best used in a support role in the future to help offset lingering fossil fuels. net preSent valUe of pUrChaSing reCS to… (in million 2012 $) paid thru 2030 paid thru 2050 …match the accelerated goal of achieving a carbon neutral electricity system by 2030 ($342) ($714) …achieve a carbon neutral electricity system tomorrow ($596) ($966) 06: impliCationS Packet Pg. 129 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 62 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS 07 moving forward image courtasy of Shutterstock Packet Pg. 130 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 63 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS moving forward firSt, SEt a PuBlic targEt fort Collins can accelerate its climate goal by twenty years to achieve a 2030 outcome in which its buildings use 31% less energy,⁴⁶ its vehicles 48% less energy, and its electricity system is carbon neutral. While it is essential to further develop an actionable implementation plan, not every aspect of execution needs to be vetted before a revised goal is adopted. this year, through the review process outlined in the “about this report” section, the City of fort Collins should consider the merits of ratifying the accelerated goal articulated here. a statement of the City’s commitment would, in itself, play a major role in enabling acceleration. this commitment is backed by the significant decision-making power and implementation capabilities of the community’s municipal utility and power supply partner. a public target would send a credible signal to interested stakeholders to engage. for those who are on the fence, ratification would give a directive to act. a bold public target would alert the nation that an energy transformation is underway in fort Collins, drawing energy leaders, funders, and researchers to participate. NExt, cONcENtratE ON tHrEE KEy lEaDErSHiP rOlES the City is poised to lead in three key areas necessary to achieve an accelerated goal. While all are critical to meeting 2030 targets, the extent to which the City concentrates on each is likely to evolve as progress is made. 1. Build needed partnerships and coalitions multi-stakeholder partnerships are important for all cities endeavoring to take on aggressive climate targets. With a 2030 acceleration target, fort Collins needs to create these partnerships quickly, establishing coalitions that can create and execute initial implementation plans as early as this year, and that are structured to nimbly course-correct over the next decade to ensure programs are meeting the 2030 objective. the City already has established relationships with private and public entities committed to reducing fort Collins’ energy use and transitioning its electric supply to renewables. through its municipal utility, transportation and master planning responsibilities, and other civic duties, it is in a prime position to coordinate the efforts of these multiple parties. in particular, the City could take the lead by: • determining the kinds of organizations—and identifying the specific organizations—that should be coordinated to orchestrate this energy transformation. • partnering with platte river to create a shared vision for fort Collins’ centrally sourced energy supply going forward. platte river will continue to be the primary centralized supplier to fort Collins, and the community’s climate targets require platte river to shift, over time, from being dependent on fossil fuels to renewables. a successful partnership with platte river ⁴⁶ 39% after aCCoUnting for fUel SwitChing 07: moving forward Packet Pg. 131 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 64 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS would ensure an increased supply of renewables and develop approaches to secure the continued financial health of platte river, fort Collins Utilities, and the community. • expanding the existing partnership base already formed through fortZed to support community wide accelerated targets, by leveraging the support of stakeholders who are already committed and mobilized to execute on aggressive energy goals. • identifying common goals and strategies of other local and regional partners to leverage investment and combined action. 2. Accelerate customer adoption achieving the sector goals presented in this report requires landmark community adoption rates for energy efficiency measures in buildings, for solar pV, and for reduced driving and efficient or electric vehicles. to get a sense of the scale of adoption required to meet these goals, consider that by 2030, (1) all residential and commercial buildings will have reduced energy use by close to 30%, (2) 30%–50% of all commercial and residential buildings in fort Collins will have installed solar pV, and (3) close to 50% of all new car sales will be either efficient or electric vehicles. acceleration will require new adoption initiatives that: • Send the correct pricing signals to participants: ensure that price structures motivate adoption while fairly distributing costs and savings across participating stakeholders. • Overcome the cost hurdle: provide low-cost financing options and incentives that can be delivered simply and equitably to participants. • Find effective ways to entice high-levels of participation: appeal to the motivations and decision-making criteria of all segments of the population. • Be able to deliver services to meet that increased adoption: engage with providers to deliver services effectively, and at a deployment rate that can match increased adoption. the utility, which already serves a diverse customer base, can take a leading role in designing and implementing these initiatives. in fact, fort Collins Utilities is already exploring new program options including a set of initiatives that can be piloted in the fortZed district to drive increased energy efficiency in buildings and greater adoption of solar pV and other distributed resources. 3. Coordinate and sequence efforts over time in addition to its role in creating and communicating clear goals for the benefit of the community, the City can play a critical role in tracking and reporting progress toward achieving goals. this will entail periodic reporting on progress and assessing the usefulness of programs and initiatives led by the City. for example, as adoption of efficiency and solar pV increases, fort Collins Utilities will need to continue the rollout of smart grid technologies in order to manage a more distributed energy system. in other areas, the City’s role may entail greater focus on coordination with private sector partners to facilitate change. taking the lead on coordination can help verify that different initiatives in and across the three sectors are designed and timed to meet the accelerated goals. 07: moving forward Packet Pg. 132 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 65 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS 08 conclusion image courtasy of google Packet Pg. 133 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 66 Stepping Up: BenefitS and CoSt of aCCelerating fort CollinS' energy and Climate goalS ConClUSion many cities can point back to the formative moments or events that shaped where they are today. perhaps it was when the local university or factory opened or closed. or when a nearby airport was built, or a zoning law passed. looking back, it’s easy to see how these events triggered what followed next: an uptick in population as more people came to study and work, a mass exodus as real estate prices dropped, or the densification of downtown. in hindsight, it’s easy to recognize decisive moments that shape the health and vibrancy of a community and set the horizon for its growth and prosperity. increasingly, cities like fort Collins are recognizing decisions they make around energy are integrally tied to the livelihood of their people. a recent report published by the Carbon disclosure project, "Wealthier, Healthier Cities: How climate change action is giving us wealthier, healthier cities", includes results from 110 major national and international cities who report that 62% of climate actions their cities are taking have the potential to attract new business and economic opportunities. the largest share of these emission reduction efforts are energy efficiency and building retrofit activities, followed by a variety of transportation-related and waste-management initiatives. among the reporting cities: • new york expects its energy efficiency initiatives will lead directly to new clean-tech ventures in the city; • dallas is seeing an inverse relationship between the fall in greenhouse gas emissions and a rise in green jobs; • Cleveland views investment in clean energy projects as a “centerpiece of economic development efforts in northeast ohio.”⁴⁷ few communities in the nation have the combination of factors that align to make fort Collins a community that can lead in creating forward-looking energy policy for community benefit. these factors include strong and pragmatic civic leadership, manageable size, an innovative and well-positioned municipal utility, workable options for creative transportation policy, and low cost options for clean and affordable electricity supplies. it is no surprise that fort Collins’ innovative energy programs and policies, notably the fortZed project, have already attracted national and international attention. By stepping forward to pioneer new approaches, fort Collins has galvanized the support of community leaders and attracted the participation of leading businesses and other institutions in the area. now, the City has an opportunity to sustain and advance its leadership position by taking up new goals that leverage existing achievements and opportunities. With bold, decisive action today, fort Collins tomorrow will be able to look back and see a turning point at which it pivoted from a business-as-usual energy system dependent on fossil fuels to a healthy, vibrant system that runs on efficiency and renewables, putting itself at the forefront of innovation nationally—stimulating local economic development, reducing outflows of money from the community, improving security, and reducing risk. ⁴⁷ “wealthier, healthier CitieS: how Climate Change aCtion iS giving US wealthier, healthier CitieS,” CarBon diSCloSUre proJeCt, 2013. httpS://www.CdproJeCt.net/Cd- preSUltS/Cdp-CitieS-2013-gloBal-report.pdf 08: ConClUSion Packet Pg. 134 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 135 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 136 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 137 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 138 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 139 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 140 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 141 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 142 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 143 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 144 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 145 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 146 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 147 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 148 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 149 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 150 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 151 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 152 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 153 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 154 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 155 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 156 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 157 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 158 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 159 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 160 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 161 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 162 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 163 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 164 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 165 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 166 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 167 Attachment2.4: Public Perspectives and Outreach (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 168 Attachment2.5: TBL Sustainability Assessment (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 169 Attachment2.5: TBL Sustainability Assessment (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packe Packe Fort Collins Climate Action Plan Update Proposed Public Engagement Process Community support will be essential to achieve future community greenhouse gas goals. Staff proposes to convene an advisory committee of stakeholders including residents and business entities to participate in the 2014 Climate Action Plan (CAP) update to: ensure various perspectives are heard and that the draft CAP reflects the desires of the community, tap into the expertise and innovation in the community, build critical partnerships and support for CAP implementation, including recommendations for on-going public engagement to implement the plan. A consultant has been retained to conduct the technical analyses of strategy options, benefits, savings and costs. Cost impact scenarios and financial model scenarios will be developed. In addition to the advisory committee, a robust public involvement process will be conducted. Public Engagement At least two public forums will be held as the CAP is being updated. One (~ March – April 2014) will gather ideas from the community and the second (~ Sept-Oct 2014) will seek feedback on the draft CAP. In addition, staff will contact community groups to offer presentations and gather feedback. A web site and social media will be used to obtain public input as well. Board and Commission Involvement At least two meetings are envisioned with the following Boards and Commissions to seek input to and comments on the draft CAP; Air Quality Advisory Board Economic Advisory Commission Energy Board Natural resources Advisory Board Transportation Board Proposed Climate Action Plan Advisory Committee An Advisory Committee of key stakeholders will be convened to provide input to the update of the Climate Action Plan. Participants will be sought from the sectors listed below. Citizen Sector (Council advisory board representatives) (5) Will seek a representative from Air Quality Advisory Board, Economic Advisory Commission, Energy Board, Natural Resources Advisory Board, and Transportation Board. Business, Environmental and Social Sectors (~8-10) Will includes a total of 8-10 representatives to be drawn from groups such as Climate Wise Steering Committee, Chamber of Commerce, Board of Realtors, Home Builders of Northern Colorado, Energy and/or Waster Cluster representatives, Fort Collins Sustainability Group, Northern Colorado Renewable Energy Society, Communities for Sustainable Energy, Sierra Club, faith-based communities, Community Foundation, Poudre Valley Health Systems, Vida Sana, etc. Major Stakeholders (3) Will include at least one representative each from Colorado State University, Poudre School District, and Larimer County. Attachment 6 Packet Pg. 172 Attachment2.6: Proposed Public Engagement Process (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Subject Matter/Technical Experts (2-3) Will include subject matter experts to represent the issues of climate change science, water resources, public health and utility providers (including a representative from PRPA). Technical experts may be formed into a separate sub-committee. An Engagement and Implementation Committee may also be developed to focus on public engagement strategies to implement the plan, with special emphasis placed on key stakeholders and potential funders, reaching students and faith-based communities, and leveraging the existing work of non-profits. Tentative Proposed Schedule (subject to change) Feb 2014 Invite and finalize Advisory Committee composition Mar-Apr Public Forum Mar – June Discuss sector specific targets and begin strategy investigation July – Aug Various scenarios (groups of strategies) for meeting goals and targets developed August Advisory Committee review scenarios August- Sep. Cost-benefit analyses and financial models developed for scenarios September Public Forum Oct - Nov Draft plan developed and public/board comments sought Nov Council work session to review scenarios and associated economic implications Dec- Jan Council considers adoption of draft CAP This proposed schedule is subject to change in order to accommodate other planning processes such as the development of PRPA’s Integrated Resource Plan. Packet Pg. 173 Attachment2.6: Proposed Public Engagement Process (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Energy We Live By™ Attachment 7 Platte River Power Authority Preliminary Cost Estimates (January 2014) These charts were prepared by Platte River Power Authority with the intent of supporting this work session. The charts are based on very preliminary modeling of three options considered in Platte River’s 2009 Climate Action Plan (increased energy efficiency, reducing coal and increasing natural gas generation, and increasing wind purchases). Platte River plans to conduct detailed analysis of a wide range of GHG reduction options as part of its next Integrated Resource Plan, due to be completed by the end of 2014. These preliminary estimates suggest the following insights: • Electric loads and resultant CO2 emissions are predicted to rise under the base case scenario (slides 1 and 2). • The three reduction strategies considered could lower CO2 emissions about 30% below the base case by 2030 (slide 3). • Implementing these three strategies would increase the community bill by about $37 million/yr (18%) in 2020 and by about $24 million/yr (8%) in 2030, relative to the base case (slide 4). • The percentage increases in total community bills are much smaller than the percentage increase in wholesale rates associated with these measures; rate increases are estimated at about 28% in 2020 and about the same in 2030 (slide 5). • Implementing these three reduction strategies could keep the total community electricity bill lower than it would be if a CO2 charge were assessed for the base case resource mix. The results assume a fixed charge of $22 per metric ton, assessed from 2014 through 2030 (slide 6). • Nationally, many utilities have developed forecasts for CO2 charges (slide 7). There is lack of consensus and a wide range of estimates, with most forecasts indicating an increasing cost for these charges over time. Packet Pg. 174 Attachment2.7: Platte River Power Authority Preliminary Cost Estimates (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Energy We Live By™ 11 Load Forecasting ‐ 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 Energy Load Forecast (MWh) Total Sales Muni Sales + DSM Preliminary Packet Pg. 175 Attachment2.7: Platte River Power Authority Preliminary Cost Estimates (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Energy We Live By™ 22 CO2 Emission Trends ‐ 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 CO2 Emissions (tons) All Sales Municipal Sales Preliminary Packet Pg. 176 Attachment2.7: Platte River Power Authority Preliminary Cost Estimates (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Energy We Live By™ 33 Emission Reduction Estimates ‐ 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 CO2 Emissions (tons) Base + DSM + Gas vs. Coal + New Wind Preliminary Packet Pg. 177 Attachment2.7: Platte River Power Authority Preliminary Cost Estimates (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Energy We Live By™ 44 Municipal Power Purchase Costs $‐ $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 Municipal Charges ($Millions) Base + DSM + Gas vs. Coal + Wind Preliminary Packet Pg. 178 Attachment2.7: Platte River Power Authority Preliminary Cost Estimates (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Energy We Live By™ 55 Municipal Rate Estimates $‐ $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 Municipal Rate ($/MWh) Base New Mix Preliminary Packet Pg. 179 Attachment2.7: Platte River Power Authority Preliminary Cost Estimates (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Energy We Live By™ 66 Municipal Electric Purchase Costs (with CO2 charge) Base Case Resource Forecast Preliminary $‐ $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 Municipal Charges ($Millions) Base Base with $22/ton charge New mix with $22/ton charge Preliminary Packet Pg. 180 Attachment2.7: Platte River Power Authority Preliminary Cost Estimates (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) The Energy We Live By™ 77 CO2 Price Risk Forecasting Source –Synapse Energy Economics 26 U.S. Utilities Resource Planning Forecasts CO2 Cost ($/ton) Packet Pg. 181 Attachment2.7: Platte River Power Authority Preliminary Cost Estimates (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 182 Attachment2.8: Work Session Summary, August 13, 2013 (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 183 Attachment2.8: Work Session Summary, August 13, 2013 (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Fort Collins Community Greenhouse Gas Goals: Aligning with Community Values City Council Work Session February 11, 2014 1 Packet Pg. 184 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) A Thriving Community 2 Packet Pg. 185 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 3 Community Values • Community & Neighborhood Livability • Culture and Recreation • Economic Health • Environmental Health • High Performing Government • Safe Community • Transportation Packet Pg. 186 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 4 Fort Collins Greenhouse Gas Goals • 20% reduction below 2005 levels, by 2020 • 80% reduction below 2005 levels, by 2050 Fort Collins Climate Action Plan Packet Pg. 187 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 5 Focus • Reliability • Efficiency & conservation • Renewable energy • Partnership Fort Collins Energy Policy Packet Pg. 188 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 6 Sources: fcgov.com/utilities/what-we-do fcgov.com/climateprotection GHG / Energy Progress (2012) Element Boundary % of total GHG Electricity City limits (municipal Utility) 52% Ground Transport City Growth Mgmt. Area 23% Natural gas City limits (private utility) 17% Air travel Fort Collins citizens 4% Solid Waste Organics from FC contribution to landfills 3% Water Process Emissions Process emission from wastewater treatment 0.3% Packet Pg. 189 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Challenges ahead 7 Packet Pg. 190 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 8 • Scientists agree • Climate change is impacting us now • It will get worse if we don’t do something about it • Solutions are available now • Majority public sentiment favors action The Facts Packet Pg. 191 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 9 Climate Change is impacting us now • 2012 – hottest year on record • Each of the last three decades have been successively warmer than any of the preceding decades since 1850. • 1/3 of population experienced 10 or more days of 100 deg • Fort Collins is experiencing extreme weather events consistent with climate predictions Packet Pg. 192 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 10 Local Extreme Heat Report Packet Pg. 193 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 11 656% 656% Increased Wildfire Risk • Up to 6o F warmer summers by 2040 • Continued declines in snowpack • Declines in water availability and soil moisture Packet Pg. 194 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 12 Recent News Draft IPCC report on climate mitigation • Political willingness to tackle climate change is growing in many countries. • Another 15 years of failure to limit carbon emissions could make the problem impossible to solve with current technologies. European Union New climate and energy goals: • Reduce 40% emissions below 1990 by 2030 • Achieve 27% share of renewable energy by 2030. Packet Pg. 195 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 13 New Solutions and Opportunities Energy solutions are rapidly changing • Price of renewable energy solutions dropping • Electricity pricing and information tool (Advanced metering) High efficiency, hybrid and electric vehicles Business models for delivering efficiency and customer solutions Packet Pg. 196 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Research to Date • GHG goal alternatives evaluation (Brendle Group) • “Stepping Up” White Paper (Rocky Mountain Institute) • Platte River Power Authority planning 14 Brendle Group RMI Packet Pg. 197 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Fort Collins GHG Alternatives 15 Goal Alternative Magnitude/ Timeline Annual Reduction Required Alternative A. Keep Current Goal 80% below 2005 baseline by 2050 1.8% Alternative B. Increase Magnitude 100% below 2005 baseline by 2050 2.2% Alternative C. Accelerate Timeframe 80% below 2005 baseline by 2030 3.2% Historical Reductions 2005-2012 1.2% Packet Pg. 198 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Alternatives Analysis 16 • Sketch out pathways to meet alternative goals • First order economic analysis looks at net costs/savings Packet Pg. 199 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 17 Can achieve 80% below 2005 by 2030 through: • Reduced building energy use 31% through efficiency • Carbon neutral electricity by 2030 • Reduced transportation emissions by 48% How far? How fast? Packet Pg. 200 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 18 Commonalities Among Alternatives Net Zero electricity emissions • Widespread adoption of PV • Large increase in wind energy Efficient Buildings • Make new and existing building stock much more efficient (technology, operations, conservation, integrated design) Packet Pg. 201 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 19 Commonalities Among Alternatives Transportation • 30% reduction in miles driven through smart growth, alternative modes, incentives • Increase fuel efficiency and electric vehicles Zero Waste by 2030 Packet Pg. 202 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Differences Among Alternatives • Leadership positioning • Innovation opportunity • Impacts to outflow of cash from community • Cost impacts • Rate of investments and paybacks • Need for Carbon Offsets 20 Packet Pg. 203 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 21 Climate Leadership is Economically Smart • Draws investment capital • Draws intellectual capital • Redirects revenue to community • Reduces risk (of carbon cost/ fossil fuel price escalation) • Supports jobs; business retention, expansion, incubation o 62% of GHG reduction actions make cities more attractive to business (Source: Wealthier, Healthier Cities, CDP and C40Cities) Packet Pg. 204 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) What have we learned…. • All scenarios are transformative • It’s technically possible to be much more aspirational in goals (acceleration) – RMI • Efficiency can largely offset expected growth • Energy supply resources must be changed • Long term benefits outweigh costs - Increased near-term investment needed - Invest now for long term payback • Leadership position brings resources to accomplish the goals 22 Packet Pg. 205 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) What have we learned….. • Need to address local barriers to implementation (e.g. transmission capacity) • Collaboration will be essential • Require community buy-in to achieve • Comparative risks for carbon cost 23 Packet Pg. 206 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Public Perspectives 24 2011 Fort Collins Air Quality Survey • 86 % - governments should offer voluntary programs that enable citizens and businesses to reduce climate change • 74% - governments should enact legislation and regulations intended to reduce climate change Climate Change in the Coloradoan Mind (2013) • More than half of Coloradans say that more should be done about global warming at all levels of government Council Advisory Boards Packet Pg. 207 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 25 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050 Fort Collins GHG Goal Alternatives Choices Regarding – How Far? How Fast? Packet Pg. 208 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 26 • Collaboration - (with PRPA; with other regional planning efforts) • Community leadership • Cost management • Future cost of carbon • Maximize innovation • Maximize other benefits • Risk mitigation/diversifying energy supply Range of Values What to emphasize? Packet Pg. 209 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Next Steps 27 • Technical / Economic Analysis • Public engagement • Advisory Committee • Boards • Forums • Energy Policy update (2014) • Climate Action Plan update (2014) Packet Pg. 210 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Direction Sought 28 1. Does Council support upcoming climate action planning to consider two scenarios- - accelerated goal for 2030 & carbon neutral by 2050 - current goal of 80% reduction by 2050 2. Does City Council have any feedback on which values or principles to emphasize in upcoming climate action planning? 3. Does City Council have any feedback on the information presented or proposed next steps for the Climate Action Plan update? Packet Pg. 211 Attachment2.9: Powerpoint presentation (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) DATE: STAFF: February 11, 2014 Mary Atchison, Director of Social Sustainability Bruce Hendee, Chief Sustainability Officer WORK SESSION ITEM City Council SUBJECT FOR DISCUSSION Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Social Sustainability Gap Analysis is the first step in the development of a Social Sustainability Strategic Planning Process. This analysis examined a variety of social issues that impact the social environment of our community to determine the scope of the need among our citizens, and the capacity that currently exists within our community to meet those needs. The issues examined in the study are: Housing Homelessness Persons living in poverty Health and wellness At-risk youth and education Diversity and equity Needs of targeted populations. GENERAL DIRECTION SOUGHT AND SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED 1. What questions does Council have about the findings presented? 2. Currently the roles the City of Fort Collins plays in these issues are: Funder Provider of incentives Convener Strategic partner Collaborator Provider of reduced program fees What are Council’s thoughts regarding these roles or others the City should consider? BACKGROUND / DISCUSSION The triple bottom line approach was adopted by the City in 2011 as a way to increase cooperation with the Fort Collins community, in pursuit of innovative alliances and continued improvements in the areas of economic health, environmental services, and social sustainability. While a focus on environmental health and economic health had been previously developed, social sustainability was a very new concept. The department was formed in 2012, and since then has begun the process of defining the scope of its work within the City structure and also the external community. The Social Sustainability Gap Analysis is the first step in the development of a strategic plan for the Social Sustainability department. The purpose of the study is to identify the human needs in our community, identify the components in the systems we have in place to address those needs, and identify gaps and capacity issues Packet Pg. 212 February 11, 2014 Page 2 within these systems. These findings will inform the strategic plan development process. BBC Research & Consulting and Clarion Associates were engaged by the City to conduct the study. The issues examined in the study are: Housing Homelessness Persons living in poverty Health and wellness At-risk youth and education Diversity and equity Needs of targeted populations The major systemic gaps identified in the analysis of the study are: 1. Long term need for affordable housing—59% of renters and 28% of homeowners are cost burdened, and there is a shortage of 8,800 affordable rental units for renters earning less than $25,000 per year. There is almost no security deposit assistance for low income renters. 2. Continuum of housing options to meet the needs of homeless persons-Homeless youth and families are in need of specialized and dedicated housing units, and we have gaps in the continuum of housing options and assistance that addresses the entire spectrum of homeless needs. Eighty seven percent of homeless have been incarcerated, and gaps exist in services, employment opportunities and other kinds of support for previously incarcerated individuals. 3. Jobs that pay self-sufficient wages—The 2012 American Community Survey data indicates a 19.3% poverty rate for Fort Collins, up from 18.2% in 2010, and up 72% since 1999. These rates are actually comparable to other communities similar to Fort Collins. However, of those in poverty, 55% have jobs, and 30-40% of the homeless have jobs, but these jobs do not pay enough for self-sufficiency. 4. Timely access to mental health and substance abuse services-- Approximately 2,700 adults have serious mental illnesses that have not been treated, and our current suicide rate predicts approximately 35 suicides per year. Appointments to see a psychiatrist or psychologist can take 4-6 weeks, and there is no 24/7 access to quality mental health services. Larimer County lacks a detox center and has very limited, if any, sober living facilities for men and women. 5. Educational and family supports for vulnerable children-- Data suggests that as many as 8,200 households are food insecure, with 3,400 being very insecure, leading to instability within families. Additionally, child care is very expensive—can be over $12,000 per year for an infant or toddler—more than a year of in-state university tuition. The lack of ability to pay for child care limits many parent’s ability to work or further their education. Larimer County’s Child Care Assistance Program currently assists only 1,032 children in Larimer County. To adequately support the CCAP program the City’s Consolidated Plan estimates it would require an additional $1.3 million per year. Effective February 1, 2014, Larimer County is not adding any new families onto the Child Care Assistance Program (CCAP) and a waitlist has been put into place. Also, there are a declining number of child care centers who accept CCAP payments due to their low reimbursement rates resulting in a need for early learning programs that accept CCAP and have sliding scales in closer proximity to areas of high poverty. Before/after school programs and summer care are challenging for families earning under $40,000 without assistance. Finally, youth and families often cannot access programs created to meet their needs due to limitations in transit. 6. Accessible and affordable housing for disabled individuals-- As many as 2000 housing units in the City are lacking needed accessibility improvements. It takes a disabled person 2-3 years to find affordable housing in the City. Housing for this group needs to often be deeply subsidized (less than $300 per month rent) due to low levels of earnings and income transfer payments. Persons with Packet Pg. 213 February 11, 2014 Page 3 disabilities not able to find affordable and accessible housing near transit can be extremely isolated and dependent on others for all transportation needs. 7. Housing and services for a rapidly growing senior population-- The number of seniors is predicted to double in the next 15 years to approximately 25,000. While many of our seniors are not low income, their needs grow rapidly as they age. The need for transit, or senior-specific transportation will be an increasing need as more and more of these seniors live past their ability to drive. There is also limited housing for grandfamilies—as many as 900 grandparents in Fort Collins are raising their grandchildren, yet many affordable senior housing units are 1 bedroom and often do not allow children. The Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis is currently on the Social Sustainability Department’s web site and we are gathering input from the community, in addition to presenting it to Council for input. These comments will be considered as the final product is completed. The department will then launch into a strategic planning process to identify our focus for the next 3-5 years. Staff expects the strategic plan to be complete and will be provided to Council for feedback in early summer. ATTACHMENTS 1. Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (PDF) 2. Powerpoint presentation (PDF) Packet Pg. 214 DRAFT REPORT Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis City of Fort Collins Packet Pg. 215 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) Draft Report January 8, 2014 Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Prepared for City of Fort Collins Sustainability Services Area 321 West Maple Street Fort Collins, Colorado 80521 Prepared by BBC Research & Consulting 1999 Broadway, Suite 2200 Denver, Colorado 80202‐9750 303.321.2547 fax 303.399.0448 www.bbcresearch.com bbc@bbcresearch.com Packet Pg. 216 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) Table of Contents BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING i ES. Executive Summary What is social sustainability? ................................................................................................... ES–1 Methodology and Report Organization................................................................................... ES–2 Current State of Affairs ............................................................................................................ ES–3 Creating a Socially Sustainable Fort Collins ............................................................................. ES–4 I. Housing Housing Needs ............................................................................................................................ I–1 Resources ................................................................................................................................... I–4 Housing Gaps .............................................................................................................................. I–9 II. Homelessness Characteristics of Persons who are Homeless........................................................................... II–1 Resources .................................................................................................................................. II–8 III. Persons Living in Poverty Poverty Levels and Trends ........................................................................................................ III–1 Resources ................................................................................................................................. III–9 IV. Health and Wellness Physical and Mental Health ..................................................................................................... IV–1 Wellness and Recreation ....................................................................................................... IV–11 Food Provision ....................................................................................................................... IV–15 V. At‐Risk Youth and Education At‐Risk Youth ............................................................................................................................ V–1 Education ................................................................................................................................ V–13 K‐12 Education ....................................................................................................................... V–14 Educational Supports ............................................................................................................. V–22 VI. Diversity and Equity Measures of Diversity and Equity ............................................................................................ VI–1 Racial and Ethnic Diversity ...................................................................................................... VI–1 Economic Equity ...................................................................................................................... VI–5 Language Diversity .................................................................................................................. VI–6 Religious Diversity ................................................................................................................... VI–7 Packet Pg. 217 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) Table of Contents BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING ii Inclusivity, Exclusivity, Tolerance and Perception of the City’s Diversity ................................ VI–9 Housing Equity ....................................................................................................................... VI–13 Resources .............................................................................................................................. VI–14 VII. Needs of Targeted Populations Persons with Disabilities ......................................................................................................... VII–1 Seniors .................................................................................................................................... VII–9 Victims of Domestic Violence ............................................................................................... VII–14 Packet Pg. 218 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Fort Collins Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Packet Pg. 219 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, PAGE 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Fort Collins Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis This section summarizes the results of a Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis, conducted by BBC Research & Consulting (BBC) for the City of Fort Collins. The City commissioned the gaps analysis as part of its initiative to build a cohesive, coordinated approach to community sustainability across City departments. What is social sustainability? Social sustainability focuses on the supportive services and networks that are needed by residents to achieve and maintain quality of life and self sufficiency. Some of these might be services to meet short‐term needs, such as temporary assistance making rent payments after a job loss. Other services span longer periods—for example, education systems for the City’s children. This study complements a larger City Plan for Social Sustainability (Plan). The broad purpose of the Plan is to determine the steps to be taken to move from a current state to a desired future state of community‐ and organization‐wide social sustainability. Ultimately, the Plan will help guide City Council and City staff in setting future work program and priorities. The gaps analysis helps support the Social Sustainability Plan questions of: 1) Where are we? and 2) Where do we want to be? by providing a quantitative and qualitative assessment of supportive service gaps in the City. A unique effort. Local government investment in sustainability efforts—particularly social sustainability—is very progressive. In 2010, the International City/County Management Association (ICMA) conducted a local government survey on sustainability policies and programs. Only a minority of local governments reported taking actions to support sustainability. Where actions were taken, these mostly included environmental efforts such as tree planting, conserving energy and water, and boosting recycling. The most common “social inclusion” effort the survey measured was support and/or incentive for affordable housing—yet just 33 percent of local governments said they have affordable housing programs. Therefore, the results from the ICMA emphasize the uniqueness of Fort Collins’ sustainability planning efforts—both environmental and social. Packet Pg. 220 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, PAGE 2 Methodology and Report Organization The scope of work used in this study consisted of four primary tasks: Collection of existing quantitative and secondary data on population levels and housing and program inventories; Interviews with providers of supportive services in the City and county to gather information on client needs, organizational needs, service demand and wait lists; A comparison of existing resources and capacity levels with needs; and Preparation of this report documenting research findings. This report is organized around the six areas of focus, the last of which encompasses six targeted population groups. These areas of focus include: Housing, Homelessness, Poverty, Health and wellness, Education and at‐risk youth, Diversity and Equity, including racial/ethnic, religious and sexual orientation , and Targeted Populations, including: Persons with Disabilities, Seniors, Veterans (discussed in Homelessness section), Victims of Domestic Violence, Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual and Transgender residents (discussed in Diversity/Equity section), and At‐risk youth (discussed in Education section). These targeted populations—as well as low income households in general—were chosen because they often face some of the greatest challenges to accessing the housing and services they need and may require public support and subsidies. The gaps analysis for each area of focus is presented as a graphic depicting the gap in service provision based on a comparison of need and resources. Since demand for services is fluid and difficult to estimate precisely, a range of need is provided where available. The types of indicators to measure need vary depending on the data available, area of focus and resident population. Packet Pg. 221 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, PAGE 3 Challenges and limitations of the study. The reader should be aware of the challenges and limitations of the social sustainability gaps analysis: Some types of residents with needs are difficult to locate, which means their needs for services and/or housing are underrepresented. For example, residents without a permanent home may be temporarily living with friends or family and at‐risk of homelessness, but not counted in annual surveys. Disabilities and illnesses may be undiagnosed or unreported. Some categories of persons with certain needs are underestimated due to their reluctance to undergo testing and diagnosis and/or failure to disclose their health information. Many individuals have overlapping needs, making it difficult to compartmentalize them into one needs category. Because of overlapping needs, service providers’ housing facilities and developments rarely serve a single population. As such, it is difficult to match available resources with needs with a high degree of precision. This study covered several issue areas and targeted population groups. It is by no means a comprehensive study of the need of a specific group, but instead a broad assessment of supportive service and housing needs. This study incorporates the best data available at the time it was completed. Additional data that become available, particularly from more specific studies of special needs groups, should be taken into account along with the findings in this study. Current State of Affairs The City of Fort Collins and its many service providers have created a solid infrastructure for social sustainability. The City has embraced many best practices for housing and service programming and is recognized as a very valuable partner by providers. Yet, gaps do exist in access to needed housing and services in Fort Collins. Some of these gaps are market driven (e.g., high demand for housing), many are economic (e.g., budget cuts for organization, job losses for residents), and some are driven by demographics. The primary gaps include: An estimated 8,800 renter households earning less than $25,000/year cannot find rentals that meet their affordability needs and, as such, are cost burdened. As many as 1,500 are on wait lists for housing assistance. As many as 100 residents are chronically homeless and 1,000 children experience homelessness during the school year. Emergency space is limited both in beds and types of populations served. Individuals and families are turned away from shelters during peak periods of demand. More than half of residents who are poor and many who are homeless (an estimated 30‐ 40%) are employed, but do not earn enough to afford housing costs and live above the poverty line. Sixteen percent of persons with disabilities are unemployed. Packet Pg. 222 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, PAGE 4 The City has almost 10 times as many unhealthy food outlets as healthy food outlets. Fifteen percent of adults and one‐third of the city’s children are obese. An estimated 6,500 adults and 1,500 teens have serious mental illnesses, but just 60 percent seek treatment. 26,000 residents abuse alcohol; 11,000 abuse drugs. The county’s suicide rate (22.5 per 10,000 residents) is higher than for the state overall. Four thousand of the city’s children live below the poverty line. An estimated 3,000 have untreated mental illness. And about 10,000 are not proficient in math or writing, as measured by standardized tests. Ten thousand residents have a disability. If unable to be employed and relying on Social Security for income, these residents will earn $13,500 in 2014. One‐fifth, or 2,000 residents, need accessibility improvements to their homes. Approximately 3,600 women and 2,900 men experienced domestic violence in the past year. 300 children are abused or neglected each year. There is also a qualitative side to the gaps. Many service providers who offer critical services to some of the most challenged residents in the City—e.g., those with substance abuse, severe mental illness, who have suffered abuse—cannot offer the ideal depth of care due to funding constraints. Creating a Socially Sustainable Fort Collins It is very important to clarify that creating social sustainability is not the same as eliminating need. Rather, it is building a safety net that will adequately assist residents who have short‐term needs and ensuring that residents with long‐term needs have access to ongoing social and economic supports. It is also important to note that needs are fluid. A numerical gap in resources only reflects needs for a temporary point in time. It is difficult, therefore to develop a single gaps, or shortage, number and manage to this target. Instead, a socially sustainability community should have a flexible menu of supportive services in place that residents are able to access as their needs fluctuate. To that end, we offer the following characteristics of a socially sustainability community toward which Fort Collins can aim: Resources are in place to enable residents who are living below the poverty line to become self sufficient to the extent possible. Programs exist that allow residents to receive skills training, potentially through a community college system, job searching and networking or employer mentoring/matching services. Support services—e.g., affordable and immediate child care—are in place to mitigate barriers to achievement. Employers receive training and support to successfully retain employees coming out of generational poverty. Packet Pg. 223 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, PAGE 5 The community provides access to services, health care, amenities, education and job opportunities to all residents. Funding is stabilized, as much as possible, so residents can receive consistent levels and frequency of care. This is necessary because when faced with budget cuts, organizations will first reduce the amount of services provided rather than remove current clients from their programs. Clients may not receive the same depth of care or early intervention, which can affect the pace of their recovery. Persons with disabilities can easily move throughout the community, are valued and accepted and are included in all aspects of the community. Lack of housing and transit to not restrict persons with disabilities to certain parts of the community. Residents are able to rapidly access and receive the depth of treatment needed for mental health, physical health and substance abuse needs. High quality health care is delivered across the continuum of care: therapy, outpatient care, inpatient care, residential treatment for addictions, mental health care. Jobs exist that pay living wages for all types of residents. Residents can access training programs to build their skill sets and education. Persons with disabilities have employment opportunities similar to their peers without disabilities. The City maintains a flexible and comprehensive transit system to provide residents without cars and non‐drivers (e.g., youth, persons with disabilities, persons with health challenges) equal access to city services, health care facilities, amenities and commercial establishments. Programs are in place to increase sustainability for at‐risk youth and improve the educational environment for youth. The community has quality early intervention for at‐risk youth and quality early childhood education programs—which have been proven to have large, long‐term payoffs—for all children. Scholarships and reduced tuition are available to low income children. Funding exists to ensure that staff of the organizations that work with the City’s youth are paid livable wages and receive benefits, as staff consistency is important for children. Before and after school, and summer care exists for any low income family who needs care during work or job training. Immediate and alternative schedule child care is available to families who have emergency care needs due to nontraditional work and job training schedules. Flexible and adequate transit systems allow children to access before and after school programs and needed services (e.g., counseling, support programs for at‐risk children). Affordable housing for families is available to mitigate frequent moves and disruption in schooling. Packet Pg. 224 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, PAGE 6 The community has a supply of affordable housing, including shelters that residents can access as their circumstances change. The community has a housing continuum that enables residents to move from an emergency shelter to transitional housing to permanent housing with delays or barriers. This includes housing for special needs populations including youth transitioning out of foster care, persons with disabilities who need accessible housing and families who have experienced domestic violence, to prevent victims from returning to their perpetrators to avoid homelessness. This system includes adequate resources for emergency and utilities assistance for households and families with short term financial needs and to prevent homelessness. Social sustainability is viewed as a cooperative venture among the city, residents and service providers. The community fosters a collaborative, not competitive, environment of compatible services among the many quality organizations that serve residents in need in Fort Collins. Service providers have regularly scheduled, formal opportunities to share information about their resources and challenges and form partnerships. The community provides easy access to services. Referrals are accurate and timely. The City fosters a sense of community and encourages residents to help the City’s most vulnerable populations build and sustain supportive networks of friends, neighbors and families. Service providers have appropriate, adequate space to accommodate clients. Nonprofits that provide critical supportive services are able to focus on service provision rather than fundraising. For organizations that provide services that are difficult for the community to talk about (e.g., child sexual abuse, HIV/AIDS), fundraising can be particularly challenging. Packet Pg. 225 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) SECTION I. Housing Packet Pg. 226 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION I, PAGE 1 SECTION I. Housing A housing market is considered to be socially sustainable if it is characterized by both equity and diversity—that is, if it provides opportunities for all residents and offers housing options that accommodate a diverse set of incomes, preferences and life stages. Common barriers to an equitable, diverse, and therefore socially sustainable, housing community are market failures in terms of affordability, accessibility and special needs housing resources. This section discusses the housing needs specific to Fort Collins along with an inventory of resources that are already in place to meet those needs. The section ends with a “gaps analysis” designed to identify and quantify any potential gaps in the Fort Collins housing market where the City may have an opportunity to improve service provision. Throughout this section, the term “affordable housing” refers to housing that requires less than 30 percent of a household’s monthly income (consistent with federal definitions). Households that spend 30 percent or more of their monthly income on housing expenses are considered “cost burdened.” Housing Needs A number of thoughtful reports—including the City’s Affordable Housing Strategic Plan (2010), the 2010‐2014 Consolidated Housing and Community Development Plan, and the Fort Collins Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice (called an AI, done in 2012) along with county‐ level reports such as the Larimer County Needs Assessment (2009) and the Larimer County Affordable Housing Report (2013)—document the state of housing in Fort Collins. The primary needs identified by those reports can be summarized into the following categories: Affordable housing (rental units and resources for potential home buyers); and Housing for people with special needs, especially seniors and residents with disabilities. Those two needs, which are reflected in the City’s current housing‐related priorities, are consistent with the findings of this report and are the primary focus of the following discussion. Affordability. Median housing costs—as measured by rent and home value—in Fort Collins are higher than in Colorado as a whole, and higher than in surrounding communities of Loveland, Laramie and Greeley. Yet the City’s median income is lower than in the state overall, partially due to the student population. Communities with a large student presence have unique housing challenges. These challenges are mostly manifested in the rental market, which generally accommodates students’ preferences at the expense of low income renters who have longer term affordability needs. Packet Pg. 227 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION I, PAGE 2 Rental market. The median rent, including utilities, for all rental units in Fort Collins was $1,002 per month in 2012. To afford the City’s median rent and average utilities and not be cost burdened, a renter would need to earn $40,080 per year. Approximately 40 percent of the City’s renters can afford to pay the median rent and utilities. In 2000, Fort Collins’ median rent was $689. The median rent in 2012 was $313 per month higher than in 2000. To afford this increase, renters in the City would need to earn $12,520 more per year. Renter incomes did increase in the decade—but by just $4,337. Therefore, renters have lost purchasing power in the City’s rental market during the past 12 years. Those renters who cannot find affordably priced rentals are living in units that cost more than they can afford. These households are “cost burdened.” As might be expected with a decrease in purchasing power, the proportion of renters who are cost burdened has increased. In 2000, about 47 percent of Fort Collins renters (9,187 individuals) were cost burdened, spending 30 percent or more of their income on rent. By 2012, 59 percent of Fort Collins renters (16,030 individuals) were cost burdened. Rental vacancy rates are closely tied to affordability—low vacancies associated with a tight rental market lead to increases in rent. In Fort Collins, rental vacancy rates in 2010, 2011 and 2012 were the lowest they had been since the early 2000s.1 Although the first two quarters of 2013 show a slight increase in the vacancy rate (from 2.5% in Q4 2012 to 5.5% in Q1 2013 and 7.0% in Q2 2013), the market remains tight and rents remain high. Figure I‐1 displays the average annual vacancy rate for the City of Fort Collins (as a whole and by quadrant). Figure I‐1. Rental Vacancy Rates, Fort Collins, 2000 through 2013 Note: The Statewide Multifamily Vacancy and Rent Survey provides vacancy rates by quarter. Figures shown reflect the annual average. 2013 data includes only the first two quarters. Source: Statewide Multifamily Vacancy and Rent Survey by Market Area and BBC Research & Consulting. 1 Statewide Multifamily Vacancy and Rent Survey by Market Area. Ron L. Throupe, Ph.D.. The Daniels College of Business at the University of Denver. Available online at http://www.colorado.gov/cs/Satellite/DOLA‐Main/CBON/1251592890239. Packet Pg. 228 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION I, PAGE 3 A recent article in the Coloradoan reports that more than 5,000 apartments are either under construction or in planning stages, which should help alleviate low vacancy rates. However, at least several hundred of those are expected to be high‐end units and are unlikely to impact demand for affordable units in the City.2 Ownership market. The median value of owner‐occupied homes in Fort Collins was $248,800 in 2012 according to the ACS.3 Between 2000 and 2012, the median home value increased by $79,200. Homeowners would need to earn approximately $19,320 more per year in 2012 than in 2000 to afford that increase.4 And, median household income for Fort Collins homeowners did increase by about that much ($19,384), which means owners’ purchasing power remained about the same during the past 12 years. Just 44 percent of current owners could afford the median‐ priced home if they were buying today. In 2012, more than one quarter (28%) of all home‐ owners were cost burdened, living in homes that cost more than they can afford, up from 22 percent in 2000. Figure I‐2. Changes in Affordability, Fort Collins, 2000 to 2012 Note: Affordable home price assumes a 10 percent down payment, 5.0 percent interest and 20 percent of monthly payment is used for property taxes, utilities and insurance. Source: 2000 Census, 2012 ACS and BBC Research & Consulting. 2 http://www.coloradoan.com/article/20130512/BUSINESS/305120018/ 3 According to Fort Collins Board of Realtors September 2013 monthly market report, the median sold price for homes in Fort Collins was $245,750—only $3,050, or 1 percent, lower than the median value. 4 This assumes a 10 percent down payment, 5.0 percent interest and 20 percent of monthly payment is used for property taxes, utilities and insurance. $689 $26,977 2000 2010 Median rent Median income $1,002 $39,497 Median rent Income required to keep up with increase in rent $31,314 Actual median income RENTERS $169,000 $61,532 2010 Median value Median income $248,800 $80,852 Median value Income required to keep up with increase in value BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION I, PAGE 4 Accessibility. In 2011, about 14 percent of all Fort Collins households contained at least one person with a disability and about 8 percent contained at least one person with an ambulatory disability (2009‐2011 ACS). Among senior households, 42 percent included a person with a disability. Accessible housing is already in demand and as the population continues to age, that demand is likely to increase. According to surveys conducted for the 2012 AI conducted in Fort Collins: Stakeholders and residents believe there are not enough affordable, accessible housing units in Fort Collins for persons with disabilities. One‐third of resident survey respondents whose household includes a member with a disability are living in housing units that do not meet their accessibility needs. The most common accessibility improvements desired include grab bars, ramps, wider doorways, and single‐level residences. Improving housing options for special needs populations (the elderly, persons with disabilities, at‐risk/endangered teens and young adults, victims of domestic violence, persons with mental illness and/or substance abuse issues, and persons with HIV/AIDS and their families) has also been identified as a top‐level housing need in Fort Collins. Population sizes and needs for those special needs groups are discussed in subsequent sections of this report. Resources This section profiles the primary Fort Collins resources related to serving the City’s housing needs. Those resources include City plans, government programs, and non‐profit organizations. City plans. Fort Collins’ Comprehensive Plan, titled “City Plan,” contains overarching policy statements that promote balanced and integrated living patterns. Topics addressed include the goal of a mix of housing types in all City sectors. Additionally, affordable housing is encouraged to be dispersed throughout the City. The City also has an Affordable Housing Strategic Plan, which establishes priorities and strategies for the City’s affordable housing programs and informs the Consolidated Plan and Annual Action Plans required by HUD. The most recent plan (2010) identifies four ordered priorities to address affordable housing needs: Increase the inventory of affordable rental units (with units for those below 30% AMI as the highest priority); Preserve existing affordable housing units; Increase housing and facilities for people with special needs; and Provide financial assistance for first‐time homebuyers. The City’s current funding streams that contribute to housing‐related goals include Federal Community Development Block Grant (CDBG), Federal Home Investment Partnership (HOME) grants, City General Fund Budget Affordable Housing Fund (AHF) and Private Activity Bonds (PAB). Packet Pg. 230 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION I, PAGE 5 The Fort Collins 2012 AI evaluated Fort Collins’ housing market and regulatory climate to assess both public and private sector conditions that impact fair housing choice. The AI suggested a Fair Housing Action Plan which was included in the City’s most recent Annual Action Plan: 1) Improve the housing environment for people with disabilities; 2) Strengthen fair housing information, educational and training opportunities; 3) Support efforts to improve residents’ creditworthiness; 4) Continue to pursue infrastructure and public amenity equity; 5) Continue efforts to make community amenities accessible to all residents; and 6) Make improvements to land use code. In 2013, the City drafted a special report titled “Affordable Housing Redevelopment Displacement Mitigation Strategy,” adopted by City Council, which discusses City policies and responsibilities related to the preservation of affordable housing (with an emphasis on mobile home parks) and displacement of low‐income people when redevelopment occurs. The report outlines current City policies and presents recommendations and actions to help bolster the preservation of affordable housing in the City and can be found on the City’s website. City programs. To address its affordability needs, the City combines federal block grant and local funding with a handful of progressive programs. These include developer incentives, a housing trust fund, and a land banking program. The Competitive Process. The City channels millions of dollars from four funding streams through its semi‐annual Competitive Process, the fall cycle of which is almost exclusively focused on housing‐related proposals. Housing funding proposals received are overlaid against the Affordable Housing Strategic Plan priorities in assessing priority for potential funding. Types of programs and proposals funded through the Competitive Process, using the City’s federal CDBG and HOME monies—as well as the City’s Human Services Program and Affordable Housing Fund dollars—includes: Homebuyer Assistance program, providing loans to eligible households to cover downpayment and closing costs up to a maximum of 6 percent of the sales price. The assistance is in the form of a loan which is paid back when the house is either sold, transferred out of the buyer’s name, rented, or if buyer seeks another second lien (like a home equity loan) on the property. Housing rehabilitation and accessibility improvements for nonprofit housing providers. Land acquisition for affordable housing development. Housing preservation through acquisition. Tenant based rental assistance provided through the local housing authority for persons with addiction and mental illness coming out of homelessness. (Fort Collins Housing Authority and its programs are discussed in more detail later in this section). Emergency rent assistance and first month’s rent assistance programs; funds for emergency shelter operations for both the general population and domestic violence survivors; funds to support case management and emergency assistance (including housing, utilities, medication and other life needs) for agencies working with those who have a disability or HIV/AIDS; and funds to assist programs which keep seniors living independently. Packet Pg. 231 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION I, PAGE 6 Funds for activities—such as childcare scholarships—that stabilize and assist households, and indirectly contribute to job and housing stability. Comprehensive self‐sufficiency programs for single parents, which address a housing stability component as part of the case management assistance. Development incentives. The City has established a number of development incentives to help ease the financial and regulatory burden for developers constructing qualified affordable housing projects.5 Those incentives include impact fee delay, development review fee waivers, administrative construction fee waivers, priority processing and density bonuses. Although the incentives were developed to help foster affordable housing development, the City has acknowledged that the incentives are not sufficient in and of themselves and should be evaluated for effectiveness and compared to best practices of other communities. The City does not have an inclusionary zoning ordinance. The City considered adopting an ordinance, but was dissuaded by Colorado’s prohibition from including rental units as part of inclusionary zoning. Housing trust fund. The City has a housing trust program (the “Affordable Housing Fund”) that is funded through General Fund contributions. The City’s budgeted dollars are the trust’s sole source of revenue. An ongoing, permanent source of revenue has not been identified. Currently, because of budget cuts, the annual contributions have dropped from $875,000 to $285,000. The trust fund dollars are used to supplement federal grants awarded (CDBG and HOME) for housing programs and projects. The City dollars carry fewer regulatory restrictions, and there is more flexibility for the types of activities that can be funded. Land banking. Fort Collins established its land banking program with a general fund contribution of $1 million. The City’s program is specifically designed to acquire property for development of affordable housing units, basically a hedge against rising land costs. Under the program, the City acquires property and holds it long‐term (a minimum of 5 years, but more often 7‐10 years). After a holding period ends on a specific property, the next step is for the City to issue an RFP for affordable housing project development on the site. However, the City is not permitted to use the land bank as an investment vehicle (e.g., to generate monies to fund affordable housing development). Faces and Places of Affordable Housing campaign. One of the most successful examples of a campaign to educate the public about affordable housing originated in Fort Collins. In 2002, the City, in partnership with a leading developer of affordable and market rate housing, conceived the Faces and Places of Affordable Housing poster campaign.6 The award‐winning campaign’s purpose was to change residents’ attitudes about the types of people who live in affordable housing and their impression of what affordable housing “projects” look like. 5 Qualified means that 10 percent of the projects units must be affordable to households earning 80 percent or less of AMI. 6 http://www.fcgov.com/socialsustainability/faces‐places‐posters.php?key=affordablehousing/faces‐places‐posters.php. Packet Pg. 232 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION I, PAGE 7 The original posters were designed to communicate the faces of residents who live in affordable housing, their hourly wage and the gap between their earnings and the average rent in the community. The 2004 versions of the Faces of Affordable Housing campaign featured actual community residents with the message, “Can I be your neighbor?” and facts supporting the economic benefits of having fire and health care professionals, administrative clerks and teachers living in the community. The second component of the campaign sought to change residents’ preconceived notions of what affordable housing looks like. It is not uncommon for residents to perceive modern affordable housing developments to have the look and feel of the “projects” developed in the 1960s and 1970s. This campaign has been adapted and implemented in 18 states. Fort Collins Housing Authority. Fort Collins Housing Authority (FCHA) administers the City’s public housing and Section 8 housing choice vouchers. The FCHA also offers resident services designed to promote self‐sufficiency and homeownership. Public housing units. The FCHA operates 154 scattered site public housing units ranging in size from one to four bedrooms. The wait list for public housing units is approximately 1,500 and is currently open. FCHA is currently applying to HUD for the disposition of 88 single‐family units, which have become too costly to maintain. FCHA intends to reinvest the proceeds to maximize impact and increase economies of scale for both new and existing affordable housing. The FCHA is currently partnering on a mixed‐income community development (Redtail) that will provide 40 units for formerly homeless individuals and 20 units for low income (less than 50% AMI) households. The development is also designed to include on‐site supportive services. Section 8 Housing Choice Vouchers. FCHA administers approximately 1,100 Housing Choice vouchers, including 115 Veterans Affordable Supportive Housing (VASH) vouchers. The voucher wait list is currently closed. FCHA recently briefly opened the list when it received 100 new vouchers for people with disabilities and 50 family unification vouchers. A portion of FCHA’s vouchers are project‐based vouchers, for use at specific units owned by nonprofit landlords including CARE Housing, Neighbor to Neighbor, Villages, Ltd. and the owner of the Northern Hotel. For its project‐based voucher program, FCHA gives preferences to people working with Project Self‐Sufficiency and victims of domestic violence working with Crossroads Safehouse. According to a geographic analysis conducted for the AI, vouchers are well distributed in most areas of the City and are not heavily concentrated in areas with ethnic or low income concentrations. However, the tight rental market and relatively low fair market rent (FMR) limit—the maximum amount that HUD will reimburse a renter receiving a subsidy—can make it difficult for voucher holders to find units in today’s tight rental market. Other affordable housing providers and advocacy organizations. A number of nonprofit organizations provide additional housing resources for Fort Collins residents. According to the City’s Consolidated Plan, there are 1,207 LIHTC rent‐assisted units in Fort Collins (80 of which are accessible) and 1,200 other affordable housing units for a total of 2,407 affordable units in the City. (It should be noted that landlords accepting housing choice vouchers Packet Pg. 233 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION I, PAGE 8 may be included in that total; it is not additive to the voucher and PHA unit count). Some of the primary affordable housing organizations are discussed below, however, the following list should not be considered exhaustive. CARE Housing. CARE Housing develops and manages affordable housing communities in both Fort Collins (six communities) and Windsor (one community). In Fort Collins, CARE operates a total of 286 units designed for working families earning between 30 and 60 percent of AMI.7 The waitlist for Care Housing communities is approximately 300 families. Villages Affordable Housing. The Villages, ltd is an affordable housing nonprofit that owns approximately 356 affordable units (all are Section 8 project based units) in eight locations scattered throughout Fort Collins.8 Villages was created to extend the capabilities of the FCHA and all village communities are managed by the FCHA. Collectively, the Villages communities comprise the largest project‐based housing choice voucher program in Fort Collins.9 Neighbor to Neighbor (N2N). The mission of Neighbor to Neighbor is to “open doors and advance lives by providing housing counseling, supportive services, and multi‐family affordable housing.” N2N services include emergency rent assistance, first month’s rent assistance, foreclosure prevention counseling, homebuyer education, housing choice voucher communities and affordable housing communities. Neighbor to Neighbor has 108 multifamily units for moderate to low income renters (earning 0‐60% of the AMI) in eight communities in Fort Collins and another 14 units in two communities in Loveland. Altogether, N2N serves 295 people in its communities, most of which are families. As of November 2013, N2N had 60 households on the wait list for two bedroom units and 22 for three bedroom units. Households generally wait for more than one year before a unit becomes available. Most clients stay in N2N communities for between three and five years and leave because they move from the City, rather than into market rate housing within Fort Collins. Habitat for Humanity Fort Collins. Habitat for Humanity International is a nonprofit Christian housing ministry that builds affordable homes in partnership with families earning less than 60 percent of AMI. Habitat provides a zero percent interest loan with affordable monthly payments to homeowners who also contribute up to 500 hours of “sweat equity” in the building of their home and a down payment. Fort Collins has built approximately 50 homes and has a goal of building 50 more by 2020.10 Financial services. The following organizations provide a number of financial tools and services related to affordable housing opportunities in Fort Collins. Funding Partners for Housing Solutions is a community Development Financial Institution (CDFI) based in Fort Collins that helps create access to capital in underserved markets and among target populations throughout Colorado. Loan programs offered in Larimer County 7 http://www.carehousing.org/. 8 Fort Collins Consolidated Housing and Community Development Plan: FY2010‐2014. 9 http://fchousing.com/housing‐programs/villages‐affordable‐housing. 10 http://www.fortcollinshabitat.org/. Packet Pg. 234 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION I, PAGE 9 include project financing, residential purchase assistance (home loans and down payment assistance), energy efficiency improvement program for nonprofits and a modification assistance program.11 GreenPath Debt Solutions (formerly Consumer Credit Counseling Services of Northern Colorado).12 GreenPath is a local non‐profit agency specializing in consumer budgeting. It offers residents a number of financial management tools including credit counseling, debt management, financial education, housing counseling, and bankruptcy counseling and education services.13 Foreclosure prevention hotline. The Colorado Foreclosure Hotline was created in 2006 to provide a central point of contact for homeowners in danger of foreclosure. The hotline serves homeowners facing potential foreclosure by connecting them to HUD‐approved counseling resources. In Fort Collins, foreclosures peaked in 2009 but have been declining steadily since that time. Housing Gaps To examine how well Fort Collins’s current housing market meets the needs of its residents— and to determine how likely it is to accommodate demand of future residents and workers—BBC conducted a modeling effort called a “gaps analysis.” The analysis compares the supply of housing at various price points to the number of households who can afford such housing. If there are more housing units than households, the market is “over‐supplying” housing at that price range. Conversely, if there are too few units, the market is “under‐supplying” housing. Gaps for current renters. Affordability for renters has two components: mismatches in the rental market and ownership opportunities for renters wanting to buy. The gaps analysis conducted for renters in Fort Collins addresses both rental affordability and ownership opportunities. Rental market. Figure I‐3 compares the number of renter households in the City in 2012, their income levels, the maximum monthly rent they could afford without being cost‐burdened, and the number of units in the market that were affordable to them.14 The “Rental Gap” column shows the difference between the number of renter households and the number of rental units affordable to them. Negative numbers (in parentheses) indicate a shortage of units at the specific income level. Renters with too few affordable units to serve them are not homeless, but are paying more for rental units than they can afford because of the shortage of units in their price range. 11 http://www.fundingpartners.org/loan‐programs/county/Larimer. 12 Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Northern Colorado and Southeast Wyoming recently combined operations with GreenPath Debt Solutions. 13 http://www.greenpath.com/cccs‐of‐nc.htm. 14 The ACS reports rent amounts as paid by the household (as opposed to the amount received by the landlord). As such, the distribution of rental units in the figure does account for subsidized units. Packet Pg. 235 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION I, PAGE 10 Figure I‐3. Rental Market Gaps Note: HUD 2013 MFI for Fort Collins‐Loveland was $75,800. Source: 2012 ACS & BBC Research & Consulting. The gaps analysis in Figure I‐3 shows that: Almost 3,700 renters earn less than $10,000 per year but there are only 220 rental units priced at their affordability range (less than $250/month). This leaves a “gap,” or shortage, of 3,471 units for these extremely low income households. Rental unit shortages also exist for renters earning between $10,000 and $15,000 per year (2,301 renters v. 345 units), renters earning between $15,000 and $20,000 per year (2,685 renters and 427 units) and those earning between $20,000 and $25,000 per year (2,713 renters and 1,559 units). Altogether, the City has a shortage of rental units priced affordably for renters earning less than $25,000 per year of 8,838 units. Some of these renters are students (discussed in more detail below).15 These households are also working residents earning low wages, residents 15 Data limitations make it difficult to separate out renters who are students and may receive assistance paying rent from parents, student loans and/or other non‐income sources. These students affect the rental market in a number of ways but their true economic need for affordable units is unknown. Income Range Less than $5,000 $125 1,528 6% 38 0% (1,491) $5,000 to $9,999 $250 2,162 8% 182 1% (1,980) $10,000 to $14,999 $375 2,301 8% 345 1% (1,955) $15,000 to $19,999 $500 2,685 10% 427 2% (2,258) $20,000 to $24,999 $625 2,713 10% 1,559 6% (1,154) $25,000 to $34,999 $875 3,814 14% 7,075 25% 3,261 $35,000 to $49,999 $1,250 4,205 15% 10,739 38% 6,533 $50,000 to $74,999 $1,875 4,549 16% 5,856 21% 1,306 $75,000 or more $1,875+ 3,705 13% 1,920 7% (1,785) Total 27,664 100% 28,140 100% AMI Range 0‐30% of AMI $569 10,164 37% 1,847 7% (8,317) 31‐50% of AMI $948 5,853 21% 9,856 35% 4,003 51‐80% of AMI $1,516 5,329 19% 11,154 40% 5,826 81‐100% of AMI $1,895 2,668 10% 3,551 13% 883 101‐120% of AMI $2,274 1,043 4% 1,038 4% (5) More than 120% of AMI $2,275+ 2,607 9% 694 2% (1,913) Total 27,664 100% 28,140 100% Max Affordable Rent, Including Utilities Rental Gap Renters Rental Units Number Percent Number Percent Rental Gap Max Affordable Rent, Including Utilities Number Percent Renters Rental Units Number Percent Packet Pg. 236 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION I, PAGE 11 who are unemployed and residents who are disabled and cannot work—in other words, those residents who are truly living in poverty.16 Rental market gaps by AMI. The gaps in Figure I‐3 are also presented in terms of AMI, which is consistent with many federally funded programs. The private rental market in Fort Collins largely serves renters earning between 31 and 80 percent of AMI—75 percent of rental units are priced within that group’s affordability range. There is a substantial mismatch in supply and demand at the 0 to 30 percent of AMI category: 37 percent of all renters earn less than 30 percent of AMI but only 7 percent of rental units are affordable to them leaving a gap of 8,317 units. A note about students. It is difficult, given data limitations, to easily separate out renters who are students and may receive assistance paying rent from parents, student loans and/or other non‐ income sources. Recent data from CSU’s Institutional Research office estimate that there are approximately 21,000 full‐time undergraduates studying at CSU during the academic year and that approximately 5,200 live in university‐provided housing. This leaves about 16,000 students living in private housing, primarily in the City limits. At an average household size of 3.5, as many as 4,600 units could be occupied by current students. These students affect the rental market in a number of ways but their true economic need for affordable units is unknown. The off‐campus students may comprise a large part of the rental gap if they report their full‐time residence as Fort Collins and have low earned incomes.17 These individuals may also be past students, no longer in school but unemployed, and still in need of affordable housing. Therefore, the rental gap shown above is an upper‐bound estimate of need. Adjusting for student households could result in a reduced gap of approximately 4,200 non‐student households in need of affordable housing. Market options for renters wanting to buy. A similar gaps analysis was conducted to evaluate the market options affordable to renters who may wish to purchase a home in Fort Collins. Again, the model compared renters, renter income levels, the maximum monthly housing payment they could afford, and the proportion of housing units with a value affordable to them.18 The maximum affordable home prices shown in Figure I‐4 assume a 30‐year mortgage with a 10 percent down payment and an interest rate of 5.00 percent. The estimates also incorporate property taxes, insurance and utilities (assumed to collectively account for 20% of the monthly payment). The “Renter Purchase Gap” column in Figure I‐4 shows the difference between the proportion of renter households and the proportion of homes affordable to them. Negative numbers (in 16 It is important that these renters are not homeless. Those renters who cannot find affordability priced rentals are living in units that cost more than they can afford. These households are “cost burdened.” 17 The students would not be counted as Fort Collins residents if they report another place of residence—such as their parents’ address—on the Census survey. 18 Home value was used as a proxy for ownership market options. The median value of homes in Fort Collins ($248,800) is very similar to the median sale price ($245,750); however, the distribution of home values may differ from the for‐sale market offerings, particularly at the lower end of the value range. As such, the gaps analysis should be interpreted as a lower‐bound estimate of affordable for‐sale housing need. Packet Pg. 237 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION I, PAGE 12 parentheses) indicate a shortage of units at the specific income level; positive units indicate an excess of units. The sale gaps analysis shows the Fort Collins market to be relatively affordable for renters earning more than $50,000 per year, especially those earning $75,000 or more. About 30 percent of homes are affordable to renters earning between $35,000 and $50,000 and an additional 41 percent of homes are affordable to renters earning between $50,000 and $75,000. Overall, 23 percent of all renters can afford the 2012 median home value of $248,800. Figure I‐4. Renter Purchase Gaps Note: HUD 2013 MFI for Fort Collins‐Loveland was $75,800. Source: 2012 ACS & BBC Research & Consulting. Current homeowner equity and options. Between 2000 and 2012, owner purchasing power stayed about the same in the City’s housing market (housing prices increased at about the same rate as owner incomes). Overall, the market is relatively affordable to current homeowners. Even if we assume owners would not use their current equity for the purchase of a new home, the distribution of home values is similar to the income distribution of current owners, except for a small gap for owners earning between $10,000 and $25,000 per year (10% of renters compared to 2% of home values). In other words, there appears to be no substantial mismatches between owner affordability and the for sale market. However, a traditional gaps analysis does not provide a complete picture of homeowner needs given the complexities of the recent mortgage crisis, changing interest rates, differences in equity, personal finances and Income Range Less than $5,000 $20,491 6% 2% 2% ‐3% $5,000 to $9,999 $40,982 8% 2% 4% ‐6% $10,000 to $14,999 $61,469 8% 1% 5% ‐8% $15,000 to $19,999 $81,960 10% 0% 5% ‐10% $20,000 to $24,999 $102,451 10% 2% 6% ‐8% $25,000 to $34,999 $143,433 14% 5% 12% ‐9% $35,000 to $49,999 $204,906 15% 18% 30% 3% $50,000 to $74,999 $307,361 16% 41% 71% 24% $75,000 or more $307,362+ 13% 29% 100% 16% 100% 100% AMI Range 0‐30% of AMI $93,193 37% 5% 5% ‐31% 31‐50% of AMI $155,322 21% 9% 15% ‐12% 51‐80% of AMI $248,515 19% 35% 50% 16% 81‐100% of AMI $310,643 10% 21% 71% 12% 101‐120% of AMI $372,772 4% 10% 81% 6% More than 120% of AMI $372,773+ 9% 19% 100% 10% 100% 100% Renters Who Want to Buy: Max Affordable Home Percent of Renters Percent of Housing Stock Cumulative Percent of Housing Stock Renter Purchase Gap Percent of Renters Percent of Housing Stock Cumulative Percent of BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION I, PAGE 13 economic conditions. As such, cost burden may be a better measure for understanding current homeowner needs. Overall, there are 8,425 homeowners (28% of all owners) in Fort Collins that cannot afford their monthly housing costs. Figure I‐5 shows the number and proportion of owners that are cost burdened by mortgage status, age and income. Younger homeowners and those with lower incomes are most likely to be cost‐burdened. Over two‐thirds of cost‐burdened owners earn less than $50,000 per year. Figure I‐5. Cost‐Burdened Owners, by Age and Income Level, 2012 Note: Total excludes 78 owner‐occupied households for which cost burden could not be calculated. Source: 2012 ACS and BBC Research & Consulting. All Owner‐Occupied Households 30,102 8,425 28% By Mortgage Status With a mortgage 23,804 7,774 33% Owned free and clear 6,298 651 10% By Age of Homeowner Householder 15 to 24 years 880 684 78% Householder 25 to 34 years 4,164 938 23% Householder 35 to 64 years 19,107 5,178 27% Householder 65 years and over 5,951 1,625 27% By Income of Household Income Less than $20,000 2,480 1,958 79% Income $20,000 to $49,999 5,979 3,824 64% Income $50,000 to $74,999 5,027 1,526 30% Income $75,000 to $99,999 5,614 787 14% Income $100,000 or more 11,002 330 3% Total* Number Percent Cost‐Burdened Packet Pg. 239 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) SECTION II. Homelessness Packet Pg. 240 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION II, PAGE 1 SECTION II. Homelessness This section discusses homelessness in Fort Collins and explores the diverse needs of persons and families experiencing homelessness and the resources available in the community. Characteristics of Persons who are Homeless This section provides HUD’s definitions of homelessness and characterizes the homeless population in Fort Collins based on Point‐In‐Time (PIT) surveys and a Vulnerability Index survey conducted in 2010. Definitions. In 2011, in response to provisions of the 2009 Homeless Emergency Assistance and Rapid Transition to Housing (HEARTH) Act, HUD issued new definitions of homelessness. These definitions are used for eligibility determination for homeless program funding. HUD broadly classifies four categories of homeless: literally homeless; imminent risk of homelessness; homeless under other federal statutes; and fleeing/attempting to flee domestic violence.1 Literally homeless. HUD defines the literally homeless as an “individual or family who lacks a fixed, regular, and adequate nighttime residence, meaning: Has a primary nighttime residence that is a public or private place not meant for human habitation; Is living in a publicly or privately operated shelter designated to provide temporary living arrangements (including congregate shelters, transitional housing, and hotels and motels paid for by charitable organizations or by federal, state and local government programs); or Is exiting an institution where (s)he has resided for 90 days or less and who resided in an emergency shelter or place not meant for human habitation immediately before entering that institution.”2 Imminent risk of homelessness. Those who are at imminent risk of homelessness are an “individual or family who will imminently lose their primary nighttime residence, provided that: Residence will be lost within 14 days of the date of application for homeless assistance; No subsequent residence has been identified; and The individual or family lacks the resources or support networks needed to obtain other permanent housing.”3 1 https://www.onecpd.info/resources/documents/HomelessDefinition_RecordkeepingRequirementsandCriteria.pdf. 2 Ibid. 3 Ibid. Packet Pg. 241 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION II, PAGE 2 Homeless under other federal statutes. Under other federal statutes, HUD considers persons to be homeless if they are “unaccompanied youth under 25 years of age, or families with children and youth who do not otherwise qualify as homeless under this definition, but who: Are defined as homeless under the other listed federal statutes; Have not had a lease, ownership interest or occupancy agreement in permanent housing during the 60 days prior to the homeless assistance application; Have experienced persistent instability as measured by two moves or more during the preceding 60 days; and Can be expected to continue in such status for an extended period of time due to special needs or barriers.”4 Fleeing or attempting to flee domestic violence. Any individual or family is considered homeless who: “Is fleeing, or is attempting to flee domestic violence; Has no other residence; and Lacks the resources or support networks to obtain other permanent housing.”5 Characteristics of the homeless in Fort Collins. Figure II‐1 presents the results of a PIT survey of the homeless conducted in Fort Collins 2013. In 2013, about one‐third of the homeless counted in the PIT were children and youth (under age 24). Figure II‐1. Observed Homelessness in Fort Collins, 2013 Source: 2013 PIT surveys, Homeward 2020. The 2013 PIT survey measured additional characteristics of persons experiencing homelessness in Fort Collins. Slightly more than one in three persons reported being victims of domestic violence. One in five was determined as severely mentally ill. 4 Ibid. 5 Ibid. Under age 18 49 20 % 18 to 24 28 11 % 24 and older 173 69 % Total 250 100 % 2013 Number of People Percent Packet Pg. 242 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION II, PAGE 3 Figure II‐2. Characteristics of Persons Experiencing Homelessness, Fort Collins, 2013 Note: Percentages add to greater than 100 percent because an individual may be represented by more than one characteristic. Source: 2013 PIT survey, Homeward 2020. In 2010, Homeward 2020 led a Registry Week in partnership with the 100,000 Homes Campaign. During the Registry Week, staff and volunteers met with and surveyed 229 homeless persons in Fort Collins; these surveys were used for a Vulnerability Index. The 100,000 Homes Vulnerability Index serves to identify and prioritize persons experiencing homelessness based on their health and markers that increase the risk of mortality. Figure II‐3 presents some of the results from the 2010 Fort Collins Registry Week surveys. Note that the questions posed in the Vulnerability Index are different from those in the PIT survey, so the responses are not directly comparable. Based on the Vulnerability Index, the vast majority of homeless individuals had been incarcerated; almost half of the individuals interviewed have a mental illness and two in five are vulnerable to dying on the streets due to health problems.6 Health problems associated with a heightened risk of mortality as measured by the Vulnerability Index include: “three or more hospitalizations or emergency room visits per year; more than three emergency room visits in the past three months; age 60 or older; cirrhosis of the liver; history of frostbite immersion foot or hypothermia; HIV/AIDS; and tri‐morbidity, co‐occurring psychiatric, substance abuse and chronic medical condition.”7 Figure II‐3. Findings from the 2010 Registry Week Vulnerability Index Survey, Fort Collins Note: n=229 unduplicated Vulnerability Index surveys with persons experiencing homelessness in Fort Collins. Source: Homeward 2020, 10 Year Plan to End Homelessness, August 2011. 6 http://100khomes.org/sites/default/files/About%20the%20Vulnerability%20Index.pdf 7 Ibid. Victims of Domestic Violence 88 35 % Severely Mentally Ill 51 20 % Chronically Homeless Individuals 47 19 % Chronic Substance Abuse 40 16 % Veterans (2 female) 21 8 % Persons with HIV/AIDS 3 1 % Chronically Homeless Families 1 0 % Number of people Percent of all homeless Packet Pg. 243 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION II, PAGE 4 Chronic homelessness. HUD classifies individuals as chronically homeless if they have experienced homelessness for a year or longer, or if they have experienced four or more episodes of homelessness in the past three years, and have a disability. In the 2012 Annual Homeless Assessment Report, HUD estimates that 15.8 percent of the homeless population nationally is chronically homeless.8 The 2013 Fort Collins PIT estimate of 19 percent is similar to the national estimate. The National Alliance to End Homelessness reports that the chronically homeless are among the most vulnerable of persons experiencing homelessness. Chronic homelessness is strongly correlated with high rates of severe mental illness, substance abuse disorders and other physical illnesses. The Homeward 2020 10 Year Plan to End Homelessness characterizes the chronically homeless as “the most visible, vulnerable and costly form of homelessness in the community.” The Plan also notes that more than half of the dollars dedicated to homelessness in Fort Collins target the chronically homeless. This relatively small proportion of the total homeless population is also overrepresented in hospitalizations, emergency services, substance detoxification and corrections facilities. Permanent housing with supportive services is considered a successful and cost‐effective intervention for the chronically homeless. Supportive services are critical to addressing the non‐ housing vulnerabilities of this population, including treatment for substance use disorders, mental illness and other health difficulties. Families. In 2012, persons in families comprised 38 percent of persons experiencing homelessness nationally. Colorado had the second highest rate of unsheltered homeless families (62% of all homeless families)9. In the 2013 Fort Collins PIT, 36 percent of persons experiencing homelessness were in family households, similar to the national share. Unlike the finding for Colorado that 62 percent of homeless families are unsheltered, in Fort Collins, only 6 percent of homeless family households included in the PIT survey were unsheltered. In contrast to the relatively low numbers of homeless families identified in City PIT counts, the Poudre School District estimated that more than 1,000 students in the 2010‐2011 school year were homeless, and this number has been growing annually.10 Part of the difference between the number of homeless families in the PIT and that reported by the school district can be attributed to a difference in how each population is defined—the PIT has a very strict definition. The National Coalition for the Homeless reports that poverty and the lack of affordable housing are the primary causes of family homelessness. Unlike the chronically homeless, family homelessness tends to be shorter term—ending a single episode of homelessness within three to six months. 11 Typically, families become homeless after a period of housing instability characterized by eviction or moving from a housing unit due to inability to pay, doubling up with 8 Volume 1 of the 2012 Annual Homeless Assessment Report to Congress, HUD, Office of Community Planning and Development. 9 Ibid. 10 See Section V. Education for more detail on homeless children in the Poudre School District. 11 http://www.nationalhomeless.org/factsheets/families.html Packet Pg. 244 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION II, PAGE 5 other households, couch surfing, and finally living in cars or motels before entering a shelter system. Many are fleeing domestic violence. Most homeless families are single mothers, under age 30, with two young children.12 Families experiencing shorter term, single episode homelessness comprise about 70 percent of homeless families.13 Most families who experience homelessness are very similar to other families in poverty who remain housed. Both groups have limited education and employment opportunities and both are more likely than other populations to have experienced physical or sexual violence, mental illness and post‐traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Given these similarities, researchers have examined the factors that may tip one family into homelessness while another remains housed. Several key differences among homeless families differentiate them from others in poverty: Weak or “thin” social networks of family or friends—sometimes the difference between becoming homeless or not is being able to borrow money to make rent. Social supports in the form of informal child care, sharing transportation or other tangible resources and the companionship of friends and family helps those living in poverty weave together the tapestry of formal and informal resources that keep them housed. Those without these supports can tip into homelessness. One study found that 27 percent of parents in homeless families were formerly in the foster care system, suggesting even weaker or nonexistent family ties.14 Homeless families also have lower participation rates in TANF, one of the primary programs designed to assist families in poverty.15 Rapid re‐housing has been demonstrated as one of the most successful strategies to remove families from homelessness and help them remain permanently housed. Many need no additional assistance after the initial supports for re‐housing.16 Families successfully assisted by rapid re‐housing are very similar to those placed in transitional housing; research suggests that more families could be assisted by shifting funds away from transitional housing programs for families and into rapid re‐housing.17 A low proportion of homeless families—approximately 5 to 16 percent—have repeated instances of episodic homelessness18. Strategies to help these families are usually more intensive due to the high likelihood of severe mental illness or substance use disorder by the parent(s). For these families, children are often removed from the household so that the parent(s) can receive the intensive treatment needed to provide a stable and healthy home. Strategies to help 12 Ending Family Homelessness: National Trends and Local System Responses, October 2012. 13 Ibid. 14 Ibid. 15 Ibid. 16 http://www.endhomelessness.org/pages/families. 17 Ending Family Homelessness: National Trends and Local System Responses, October 2012. 18 Ibid. Packet Pg. 245 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION II, PAGE 6 these families often involve intensive housing and service supports in the form of permanent supportive housing.19 Unaccompanied youth. Nationally, each year, about 1.6 million youth (age 24 and younger) join other runaways and homeless youth on the streets. In Fort Collins, three in ten homeless persons are age 24 or younger. Unlike youth and children who are homeless with a family, unaccompanied youth are on their own. These unaccompanied youth typically fall into one of three classes: “Runaway‐homeless youths, who stayed away at least one night without parents’ or guardians’ permission; So‐called ‘throw‐away’ youths who left home because parents encouraged them to leave or locked them out of the home; and Independent youths who feel they have no home to return to due to irreconcilable familial conflicts or have lost contact with their families.”20 Homeless independent youths may include those who age out of the foster care system. Unaccompanied youth runaways tend to be female and Caucasian. Native American and African American youth are also overrepresented compared to their population proportion in all three classes of unaccompanied homeless youth, as are lesbian and gay youth. Between 20 and 40 percent of unaccompanied homeless youth consider themselves to be lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgendered (LGBT).21 Violence in the home (including emotional/mental, physical and sexual) is one of the primary factors contributing to runaway youth. Another predictor of youth homelessness is behavioral problems, mental illness such as depression and substance use disorders prior to the episode of homelessness. Unaccompanied homeless youth tend to have weaker social networks and supports than those of homeless families, further compounding their isolation and vulnerabilities.22 A large share become homeless after aging out of the foster care system. Providers estimate that about 60 youth between the ages of 16 and 21 are currently in the foster care system in Larimer County. Once on the streets, unaccompanied youth are much more vulnerable to physical and sexual violence as well as engaging in survival sex for food, shelter or money. Among unaccompanied homeless youth, LGBT youth experience physical and sexual violence at a higher rate than their non‐LGBT peers—59 percent compared to 33 percent overall.23 19 Ibid. 20 Homeless Children and Youth: Causes and Consequences, National Center for Children in Poverty, 2009. 21 Ibid. 22 Ibid. 23 Ibid. Packet Pg. 246 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION II, PAGE 7 Placing unaccompanied homeless youth into youth‐focused stable housing with supportive services geared toward restoring physical and mental health, life skills training and job training is seen as an effective practice for stopping homeless episodes in this population. Veterans. The 2012 American Community Survey (ACS) estimates that there are 8,378 veterans living in Fort Collins. In 2012, veterans comprised about 10 percent of the nation’s homeless population in the PIT count.24 This is down from 16 percent in 2009, the year the Veterans Administration announced a 5 Year Plan to End Veteran Homelessness. Veterans represented 8 percent of the homeless population in the 2013 Fort Collins PIT count, slightly lower than the national proportion. The National Alliance to End Homelessness estimated that the number of homeless veterans in Colorado decreased by 27 percent from 2011 to 2012.25 In 2012, the Department of Veterans Affairs released the first comprehensive longitudinal study of homelessness among veterans, with a focus on veterans who served in Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) and separated from the military between July 2005 and September 2006. The study tracked these veterans for a period of five years and compared them to demographically similar veterans who separated from the military in the same period.26 The findings are striking for all veterans, as well as those who served in OEF/OIF. Based on the 2012 number of persons experiencing homelessness nationally and the U.S. population, about 0.002 percent of Americans are homeless. Among veterans, 3.7 percent of those who served in OEF/OIF have an initial episode of homelessness within five years of leaving the military27. The percentage of non‐OEF/OIF veterans experiencing an initial episode of homelessness within five years of military separation is 3.2 percent and 4.0 percent for female veterans.28 The median timing of the first homelessness episode is three years after discharge. Veterans who experience homelessness after separating from the military are more likely than veterans who do not experience homelessness to have been29: Under the age of 35 at the time of discharge (79 to 84% of homeless veterans); Enlisted and in the lower pay grades (E1‐E4) (70 to 78% of homeless veterans); Diagnosed with mental disorders, including substance abuse (50% or more of homeless veterans), and most received this diagnosis prior to discharge; 24 Volume 1 of the 2012 Annual Homeless Assessment Report to Congress, HUD, Office of Community Planning and Development. 25 The State of Homelessness in America, National Alliance to End Homelessness, Homelessness Research Institute, 2013. 26 Homeless Incidence and Risk Factors for Becoming Homeless in Veterans, Department of Veterans Affairs, Office of the Inspector General, May 2012. 27 Ibid. 28 Ibid. 29 Ibid. Packet Pg. 247 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION II, PAGE 8 Diagnosed with traumatic brain injury (TBI) at a rate two to three times higher than non‐ homeless veterans; and Treated for military sexual trauma, particularly female homeless veterans. The 2012 ACS estimates that there are 969 male veterans and 88 female veterans under the age of 35 in Fort Collins. If the estimate that 3.7 percent of veterans become homeless within five years of separating from the service, applying this rate to the veterans under age 35 suggests that approximately 40 veterans are or will become homeless in Fort Collins. The study authors recommended that the VA focus its homelessness prevention efforts on those recently separated veterans with the risk factors noted above. Other studies suggest that rapid re‐housing is an effective strategy for most homeless veterans, however those with the most severe difficulties (e.g., physical and mental health disabilities, including substance use disorders) are best served by permanent housing with supportive services provided by experts in veteran care.30 Resources The Fort Collins Housing Authority and other area organizations provide public housing units, project based Section 8 units and administer housing vouchers. These affordable housing opportunities were described in Section I. This section describes the resources available to homeless individuals and families in Fort Collins. Coordination and day services. The Sister Mary Alice Murphy Center for Hope (Murphy Center) serves as a single point of access for persons who are experiencing homelessness or are nearly homeless to connect to community resources. Resource specialists meet with people seeking assistance and connect them with needed services. Services include employment assistance, housing assistance, financial counseling, transportation assistance, job training and education opportunities, and mental health and substance abuse counseling. In addition, the Murphy Center provides showers, lockers, phone and computer access and laundry facilities. Demand for showers and laundry is so high that a lottery is conducted each morning for each. A total of 23 different agencies and organizations are accessible to clients of the Murphy Center during the week. Examples of some of the organizations that participate in service provision or resource referrals at the Murphy Center include: Salud‐Health Care performs health checks; Touchstone Health Partners offers therapy groups, medication assistance, and referrals to the housing authority; Neighbor2Neighbor provides housing search assistance as well as housing counseling and emergency assistance; the Homelessness Prevention Initiative screens applicants for emergency rental assistance; Hand‐Up Cooperative helps with employment training and searches; Navigators—a volunteer program—helps individuals and families access state benefits; and Homeless Gear distributes clothing, equipment and non‐perishable food items. 30 http://www.endhomelessness.org/pages/veterans. Packet Pg. 248 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION II, PAGE 9 Homelessness prevention. One of the key homelessness prevention strategies is providing one‐time rental assistance to households at risk of losing their housing. Assistance with paying utility bills is also important. Homelessness Prevention Initiative. The Homelessness Prevention Initiative (HPI) works to prevent families in its service area— the Poudre School District—from becoming homeless. Their primary prevention activities include providing rental assistance and financial literacy classes. In the 2011‐2012 program year, HPI prevented 855 families from becoming homeless by distributing more than $240,000 in rental assistance dollars. HPI also refers families to other agencies for additional assistance. HPI offers rental assistance intake at the Sister Mary Alice Murphy Center for Hope on Tuesdays and at five churches across the City.31 Residents can also call 211 to be directed to intake screening by phone. HPI’s support to qualified families is on a first‐come first‐serve basis as funding allows. Neighbor to Neighbor rent assistance. Neighbor to Neighbor (N2N) provides up to $350 in rental assistance to qualified households. Households can receive assistance one time per year, up to three times in their lifetime. Between January and October 2013, 102 Fort Collins families have been assisted with emergency rent assistance. N2N also offers qualified homeless and near homeless the opportunity to apply for as much as $500 towards first month’s rent. This is a one‐time assistance. Between January and October 2013, 80 households were assisted with first month’s rent. N2N housing counselors are available on Mondays and Wednesdays at the Sister Mary Alice Murphy Center for Hope from the hours of 8:30am‐12:00pm and 12:30pm‐3:30pm and on Tuesdays and Thursdays from 12:30pm‐3:30pm. Salvation Army of Fort Collins rent and utilities assistance. Residents with eviction or shutoff notices can contact the Salvation Army of Fort Collins for assistance. Funds are allocated on a first come first serve basis. Catholic Charities utilities assistance. Qualified Larimer County residents can receive emergency assistance with utility shutoff notices from Catholic Charities. Appointments can be scheduled by phone Monday through Friday from 8:30am‐10:00am. In the most recent fiscal year, Catholic Charities Northern provided 839 families with utilities assistance. Disabled Resource Services financial assistance for emergency needs. As funding allows, Disabled Resource Services (DRS) can provide limited financial assistance to low income residents with disability conditions for emergency needs, such as eviction or utility shutoff prevention, prescriptions and transportation. In the 2011‐2012 program year, DRS provided housing assistance services to 925 people. Rapid re‐housing. Through the development of affordable housing and offering limited financial assistance (e.g., deposit, first month’s rent), the purpose of rapid re‐housing is to house homeless individuals and families as quickly as possible and then address other factors or 31 http://homelessnessprevention.net/contact‐us. Packet Pg. 249 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION II, PAGE 10 conditions that contributed to their episode of homelessness. The City’s efforts to develop and support affordable housing were detailed in Section I. Strategies for increasing affordable housing in the City should include rapid re‐housing, as this tool best serves the needs of particular vulnerable populations. Permanent supportive housing. The Fort Collins Housing Authority is developing the City’s first permanent supportive housing—Redtail Ponds. This development will have 40 units for formerly homeless individuals and 20 units for individuals earning 30 to 50 percent of the Area Median Income. Redtail Ponds will offer a variety of supportive services, including case management, counseling and life skills training. Construction is anticipated to commence in early 2014. Emergency shelter and transitional housing. Figure II‐4 summarizes the emergency shelter beds and selected transitional housing programs in Fort Collins. As shown, the Fort Collins Rescue Mission has the greatest number of unrestricted beds for men and women (75 total). Overall, Crossroads Safehouse has the greatest number of emergency shelter beds, but these are reserved for men, women and children fleeing from domestic violence. At any point in time, there is capacity to shelter eight families in emergency housing (excluding those served by Crossroads Safehouse). Catholic Charities operates a transitional housing program for up to 16 male veterans. Through the Fort Collins Housing Authority, Crossroads Safehouse operates 25 transitional housing units and an additional six housing units onsite for those who cannot safely live in the community. The Corbett House provides the only transitional housing with supportive services for youth age 17 to 20. Since it’s opening, the Corbett House has been full. The average length of stay is six months. Youth are referred to the program by the Colorado Department of Human Services and the Colorado Department of Youth Corrections. It is important to note that these shelters are all night shelters; the City does not have a day shelter where individuals and families may stay during daylight hours (the Murphy Center is a resource, not a day, shelter). Although there is no dedicated day shelter, the City does have a cooperative partnership between the Murphy Center and Catholic Charities to provide day center services. Day shelter services are available in the mornings at the Murphy Center and in the afternoons at Catholic Charities. In addition to these services, Faith Family Hospitality has a day center three days per week for their families and families on their wait list. Packet Pg. 250 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION II, PAGE 11 Figure II‐4. Emergency Shelter Beds and Transitional Housing Programs Source: BBC Research & Consulting from provider websites and interviews. Gaps. The gaps in housing for residents who have experienced homelessness are summarized in the following graphic. The factors underlying homelessness are complicated and many, and addressing homelessness requires a comprehensive approach for both housing and services. As the graphic demonstrates, Fort Collins has many resources in place to prevent and address homelessness—yet gaps remain in some areas. The primary gaps in providing a more sustainable network for persons who are homeless include: Expanding shelter options for families and youth including a day shelter; Permanent supportive housing to keep residents from falling back into homelessness; Transitional housing, especially in periods when subsidized housing supply is oversubscribed32; A shelter for youth who are homeless; and Expanded onsite and mobile resources, particularly rapid access to mental health care for persons who are homeless. 32 Note that transitional housing is the best option for very specific populations (e.g., youth exiting from foster care, survivors of intimate partner violence). Shelter Beds Catholic Charities Mission Shelter 18 beds 6 beds 4 rooms Catholic Charities Emergency Overflow 24 beds 6 beds 4 beds Fort Collins Rescue Mission 59 beds 10 beds Faith Family Hospitality 4 families Crossroads Safehouse Emergency Shelter 107 beds Transitional housing with supportive services Catholic Charities Veteran's Program 12 beds Fort Collins Rescue Mission New Life Program 14 beds Crossroads Safehouse Housing Opportunities and Mentoring Enrichment (HOME) 25 housing units w/ FCHA Crossroads Safehouse Housing Opportunities and Mentoring Enrichment (HOME) 6 housing units onsite Corbett House 8 beds Men Women Family Youth Packet Pg. 251 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) SECTION III. Persons Living in Poverty Packet Pg. 252 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION III, PAGE 1 SECTION III. Persons Living in Poverty This section addresses poverty in Fort Collins. It begins with trends in poverty and then discusses some of the underlying causes of poverty. The section also profiles resources in the City that are dedicated to mitigating poverty and building self sufficiency of those who are poor. Poverty Levels and Trends Poverty is defined at the federal level and, except for Alaska and Hawaii, does not vary based on state or municipality. For 2013, the poverty level by family size was: $11,490 for a single person, $15,510 for a two-person household, $19,530 for a three-person household, and $23,550 for a four-person household, Which equates to $4,020 for each additional household member. The Census’ ACS estimates that in 2012, 8.9 percent of Fort Collins families and 19.3 percent of individuals lived in poverty. This equates to 2,898 families and 27,225 individuals. The large difference between the family and individual poverty rate in the City is partially due to the student presence. As shown in Figure III-1, Fort Collins residents between the ages of 18 and 24 report a very high poverty rate (57.5% live below the poverty level). If 18-24 year olds are factored out of the number of persons living in poverty, the overall rate drops to 10.3 percent. Figure III-1. Poverty by Age, 2012 Source: American Community Survey, 2012. Families 32,542 2,898 8.9% Individuals 141,227 27,225 19.3% Under 5 years 8,912 1,243 13.9% 5 years 1,958 59 3.0% 6 to 11 years 9,581 1,217 12.7% 12 to 14 years 3,732 608 16.3% 15 years 1,278 115 9.0% 16 and 17 years 2,775 697 25.1% Child poverty rate 14.0% 18 to 24 years 26,837 15,437 57.5% 25 to 34 years 25,258 3,751 14.9% 35 to 44 years 16,308 997 6.1% 45 to 54 years 18,433 1,591 8.6% 55 to 64 years 14,093 1,105 7.8% 65 to 74 years 6,979 145 2.1% 75 years and over 5,083 260 5.1% Totals 114,390 11,788 10.3% Total In Poverty Poverty Rate Packet Pg. 253 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION III, PAGE 2 Recent trends. In 2010, nearly 25,000 Fort Collins residents were living in poverty—about 18.2 percent of all residents. The 2012 ACS data indicate that the number of residents living in poverty has increased slightly, to 27,225, or 19.3 percent of residents. The 2000 Census counted 15,835 individuals living in poverty in the City in 1999, for a poverty rate of 14.0 percent. Family poverty has increased more dramatically than individual poverty on a percentage basis. Between 1999 and 2012, the number of poverty- level families doubled, whereas persons living in poverty grew by 72 percent. Figure III-2 shows trends in both individual and poverty family rates. Figure III-2. Poverty Trends, 1999-2012 Source: 2000 Census, 2005 ACS, 2008 ACS, 2011 ACS, and 2012 ACS. 1999 2008 2010 2011 2012 Families living in poverty 1,417 2,737 1,794 2,317 2,434 2,898 1,320 93% 900 64% 1,481 105% Family poverty rate 5% 10% 6% 8% 8% 9% Individuals living in poverty 15,835 21,705 21,356 24,988 26,322 27,225 5,870 37% 9,153 58% 11,390 72% Individual poverty rate 14% 18% 16% 18% 19% 19% % increas 1999-2012 change 2005 1999-2005 change No. increase % increase No. increase % increase 1999-2010 change No. increase Packet Pg. 254 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION III, PAGE 3 Student effect. Enrollment at CSU explains some, but not all, of the high individual poverty rate for several reasons. First, students claiming another place of residence than Fort Collins (e.g., their parent’s home) would not be captured in the Census’ poverty numbers. Second, not all students are poor; some earn enough to be above the poverty line. And the recent increase in the number of individuals living in poverty cannot be fully explained by increases in student numbers, as discussed below. The number of undergraduate students at CSU increased by just 1,734, or 8 percent, between 2003 and 2012. The increase in all resident-instruction students (those taking classes on campus, including graduate students) was only 1,727. Fort Collins residents living in poverty, by comparison, rose by 5,520 between 2005 and 2012. Figure III-3 shows current and historical enrollment at CSU, according to the CSU Fact Book.1 Figure III-3. CSU Enrollment, Fall 2003 – Fall2012 Note: Only includes students who receive instruction in person on campus. Numbers reflect fall enrollment. Source: CSU Fact Book, http://www.ir.colostate.edu/pdf/fbk/1213/2012_13_Fact_Book.pdf. Peer communities. Figure III-4 compares poverty rates in Fort Collins with peer communities—those in surrounding states with large university presences and not located in a larger urban setting. As the figure demonstrates, Fort Collins’ poverty rate is relatively low for a college community. 1 http://www.ir.colostate.edu/pdf/fbk/1213/2012_13_Fact_Book.pdf. Packet Pg. 255 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION III, PAGE 4 Figure III-4. Family and Individual Poverty Rate in Peer Communities, 2008-2011 ACS Source: American Community Survey, 2008-2011 3-year estimates. Poverty and race/ethnicity. Figure III-5 shows poverty by resident race and ethnicity. Rates are highest for African Americans, persons reporting Some Other Race (often Hispanics who do not consider their race as White) and residents of Hispanic descent. The poverty rates of these groups far exceed those of residents in the City overall. Figure III-5. Poverty by Race/Ethnicity, City of Fort Collins, 2006- 2010 Source: American Community Survey 2006-2010 5-year estimate. Geographic concentration. Figure III-6 shows concentrations of poverty in Fort Collins using 2006-2010 ACS data. Residents in poverty are mostly located in the northern part of the City. This is true of both individual and family poverty.2 2 The At-Risk Youth and Education section uses maps by family poverty to examine correlations between poverty and educational achievement, as well as location of ECE and before and after school programs. Fort Collins, CO 30,962 2,486 8% 137,650 25,632 19% Boulder, CO 17,711 1,466 8% 89,740 20,413 23% Laramie, WY 5,772 585 10% 28,625 7,554 26% Logan, UT 10,263 2,194 21% 44,519 13,816 31% Las Cruces, NM 23,072 3,808 17% 94,708 21,461 23% Total Families Individuals In Poverty Poverty Rate Total In Poverty Poverty Rate Total Population 133,374 23,960 18% Race American Indian and Alaska Native 938 120 13% Asian 3,948 823 21% Black or African American 1,379 526 38% White 119,266 20,313 17% Some other race 3,474 1,185 34% Two or more races 4,282 937 22% Ethnicity Hispanic or Latino origin 13,109 3,546 27% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 111,425 18,495 17% Total Below Poverty Percent Below Poverty Packet Pg. 256 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION III, PAGE 5 Figure III-6. Percent of Persons Living in Poverty, by Census Tract, City of Fort Collins, 2006-2010 Note: According to the 2006-2010 ACS, 18% of Fort Collins residents are living in poverty. Source: American Community Survey 2006-2010 5-year estimate. Household structure and poverty. In Fort Collins, as in most cities, the family type with the highest poverty rate is single female headed households with children. In Fort Collins, 36 percent of single mothers live in poverty, or 1,074 families. Single fathers, with a poverty rate of 28 percent, also have poverty rates much higher than the rate for all families with children (15%). Figure III-7 shows the poverty rate by family type in Fort Collins. Packet Pg. 257 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION III, PAGE 6 Figure III-7. Poverty by Household Type Source: American Community Survey, 2012. Disability and likelihood of being in poverty. Curiously, in Fort Collins, persons with a disability have lower poverty rates than those without a disability. Overall, the individual poverty rate in Fort Collins is 19 percent. Persons with one or more disabilities—a total of 9,940 in Fort Collins in 2012—have a poverty rate of 15 percent. This equates to 1,450 persons with disabilities in the City who are living below the poverty level. It is important to note that the poverty level for those disabled persons who have never worked is extremely low and that these vulnerable residents have very little opportunity to ever reach self-sufficiency. There are two reasons for this phenomenon. First, as discussed above, residents between the ages of 18 and24 comprise 57 percent of all persons in poverty. Few of these residents are disabled. The prevalence of disability increases with age, so the City’s seniors, who have a very low poverty rate, are the largest share of persons with disabilities. Employment and poverty. Although persons in poverty are less likely to be educated and employed than those residents not living in poverty, many residents in Fort Collins could be classified as the “working poor.” The majority of persons living in poverty in Fort Collins have attended college. A slight majority (55%) of persons living in poverty work. These statistics, shown in Figure III-8, suggest that some of the solutions for alleviating poverty lie in economic development. Families 32,542 2,898 9% Married-couple family 26,425 1,316 5% with children 11,944 1,000 8% Male householder, no wife present 1,522 281 18% with children 1,002 281 28% Female householder, no husband present 4,595 1,301 28% with children 2,982 1,074 36% Among all families with children living in poverty… Percent that are married couples 42% Percent that are single fathers 12% Percent that are single mothers 46% Total In Poverty Poverty Rate Packet Pg. 258 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION III, PAGE 7 Figure III-8. Educational Attainment and Employment Status of Persons in Poverty, 2012 Source: American Community Survey, 2012. Local poverty research. In a 2008 paper, Dr. Martin Shields of CSU and colleagues examined trends in poverty in Larimer County and Fort Collins.3 Findings of the research paper are based on data from 1999 through 2006 and, as such, do not reflect the impact of the recent recession. Yet many of the findings remain current according to 2012 data. These include the following. Growth in poverty in the past decade was strongest for the City’s youngest residents. More recent data (2000 through 2010) show that the number of children under age 5 living in poverty rose by 126 percent. It should be noted that the number of younger seniors living in poverty more than doubled, yet the actual number of seniors who are poor is small relative to children. Poverty rates of children in single parent household is very high. 2012 ACS estimates the poverty rate for single-parent female households at 36 percent. A high school diploma is an important, but not sure, pathway past poverty. For adults 25+ years of age poverty rates are highest for those with less than a high school degree (20% in 2012)—yet poverty still persists for those with higher educational attainment. In the context of current economic conditions, findings suggest that individuals with a high school education or less are the most vulnerable to falling into poverty. 3http://www.bridgesnoco.org/images/What_Explains_Recent_Increases_in_Poverty_in_Larimer_County_DrMartin_Shields_Stu dy.pdf. Poverty Status by Employment Status Civilial population 16 and over (for whom poverty status is determined) 115,589 23,983 91,606 In labor force: 85,377 15,897 69,480 66% 76% Employed 78,993 13,284 65,709 55% 72% Unemployed 6,384 2,613 3,771 11% 4% Not in labor force 30,212 8,086 22,126 34% 24% 100% 100% Population 25 years and over (for whom poverty status is determined) 86,154 7,849 78,305 Less than high school graduate 3,424 673 2,751 9% 4% High school graduate (includes equivalency) 11,702 1,402 10,300 18% 13% Some college, associate's degree 24,822 2,842 21,980 36% 28% Bachelor's degree or higher 46,206 2,932 43,274 37% 55% 100% 100% Not in Poverty Poverty Status by Highest Level of Eduational Attainment Total In Poverty Not in Poverty In Poverty Total In Poverty Not in Poverty In Poverty Not in Poverty Percent Percent Packet Pg. 259 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION III, PAGE 8 Unemployment rates are highest for those without a high school degree. Wages increase with education. Households where at least one adult is employed full-time are much less likely to be impoverished. The study also concluded, based on an analysis of poverty relative to local economic variables that regional economic development, as measured by wage and employment growth, can reduce poverty, but it takes dramatic growth to make large differences. Regions where a higher percentage of individuals have finished high school or college tend to have lower poverty rates. Base line education rates, however, have little effect on changing poverty. What leads to poverty? As suggested in Dr. Martin’s findings—and as documented in other research—the causes of poverty are not completely understood. Macroeconomic indicators, such as growth in per capita income, no longer demonstrate a strong statistical relationship with proportion of the population living in poverty.4 That is, poverty can persist and even increase in spite of growth in a local economy. It is important to note that there are some residents in every community who are not capable of being gainfully employed and may long-term require public assistance. Persons with debilitating diseases, some persons with disabilities, and persons who are elderly with infirmities often cannot generate household income through employment. Income assistance—in the form of Old Age Pension (OAP), Aid to Needy Disabled (AND), Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Social Security Disability Income (SSDI), Veterans Affairs (VA) benefits, Medicare or Medicaid, food stamps, and a “preference” for existing public housing and Section 8 vouchers—are the most realistic strategies for maintaining household income and limiting the effects of extreme poverty in these situations. Historically, the most successful anti-poverty program in the U.S. has been the Social Security program, an income supplement program. Social Security has reduced poverty significantly—as evidenced in the low poverty rates of seniors—by providing regular monthly income to elderly persons. It is also important to draw a distinction between generational poverty (a child raised in poverty) and situational poverty (poverty related to job losses, significant illness, etc.). Generational poverty is usually defined as poverty lasting two generations or longer. These very different circumstances require different approaches. For situational poverty, the solution is usually found in a temporary safety net (e.g., rent or mortgage assistance, shelter, child care subsidies) and access to programs to help an individual or family regain self sufficiency. Generational poverty, in contrast, is a more difficult situation to change. Families living in generational poverty need a broader and ongoing arrangement of supportive services. 4 Hoynes, Hilary, et. al. 2005. “Poverty in America: Trends and Explanation.” National Bureau of Economic Research. Paper No. 11681. Packet Pg. 260 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION III, PAGE 9 Resources Poverty is a complex problem that, as discussed previously, could be related to many different factors, some generational and some situational. As such, addressing poverty requires a diversity of resources. This section profiles the primary resources that are in place in Fort Collins to assist residents living in poverty. City Anti-Poverty Plan. As a recipient of federal housing and community development block grants, Fort Collins is required by HUD to have an anti-poverty plan in place. The City of Fort Collins first adopted a formal anti-poverty strategy as part in 1993. This strategy seeks to integrate and coordinate local housing and support services for households that are below the poverty levels. To accomplish this, City staff participate on many community-wide task forces, and promote programs that provide skills development, education, and job training for low- income persons, as well as integrate public housing residents with programs that focus on self sufficiency. Housing and emergency assistance programs. For most people, the most expensive household cost is their monthly rent or mortgage payment.5 As such, reducing housing cost burden is one of the most effective tools to mitigating the impact of poverty. For example, a household receiving assistance with housing costs may better be able to afford the cost of child care, which is necessary for work or job training. Housing supports can also determine if residents living in poverty have shelter or fall into homelessness. Section I discusses housing gaps in Fort Collins and lists the largest providers of housing assistance in Fort Collins. These housing providers—particularly those that serve clients at the lowest income levels—are a very important part of improving the self sufficiency of those living in poverty, as well as preventing homelessness. The Murphy Center, described in more detail in the Homelessness report section, provides services to persons living in poverty, both those housed and experiencing homelessness. The Navigators program assists guests of the Murphy Center in applying for state and federal benefits such as food stamps and Temporary Aid to Needy Families. The Murphy Center also offers an emergency assistance program that helps residents pay utilities, prescriptions and transportation. The Homelessness Prevention Initiative provides rent assistance to community members facing the loss of housing due to an unforeseen emergency. Employment and job training services. The Aspen Institute recently released several research reports that focus on addressing the needs of the unemployed and raising self sufficiency of low income households, particularly in the wake of the current recession. The Institute’s research has found that collaboration across multiple institutions is imperative to build the academic, supportive-service and employment needs of low income workers. The Institute recommends the following strategies: 5 This is not always true of seniors. Those without a mortgage payment or who are living rent-free (e.g., with family) may have very low monthly housing costs. And for some, health care costs may exceed housing costs. Packet Pg. 261 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION III, PAGE 10 Target a specific industry or cluster of occupations on which to focus job training and skills development services, especially those industries with predicted growth and livable wages. Support students’ efforts to improve workforce skills by providing counseling, child care, and in some cases, basis skills development. Connect with area businesses and provide labor market navigation services to students to help them find jobs and improve their job hunting and communication skills. Combine the strengths of community colleges and local workforce nonprofits. Students are served more effectively by a joint effort than by the organizations alone. Involve residents in the development of these programs and make them the agents of change. Top down government programs have been found to be less effective than resident- involved programs. Many of these recommended strategies are already in place at the Fort Collins organizations dedicated to employment and job training for low income households. These organizations are profiled below. Project Self-Sufficiency (PS-S). This organization assists low income, single parents in the greater Fort Collins-Loveland build self sufficiency. The majority of clients earn less than 30 percent of the AMI (86%) and many are female heads of household. Some have physical disabilities and mental illness, with potential for full time employment, and 60 percent are victims of domestic violence. PS-S focuses on improving employment-readiness of its clients with career planning and job search assistance through the Education and Life Training Center in Fort Collins. (see profile below) Scholarships and child care assistance to help parents attend school is funded by service clubs. The organization also provides tutoring services for parents, particularly in math and science, and access to computers. PS-S partners with local housing authorities to find their clients assisted housing and maintains a services-sharing agreement with Crossroads Safehouse. Education and Life Training Center (ELTC). The ELTC provides employment readiness and job training to adults in Northern Colorado. The center offers classes in computer software and general job readiness. ELTC partners with area nonprofits that serve clients with education and training needs, many of which are profiled elsewhere in this section and report. ELTC is also the lead agency of the Larimer County Circles initiative, which engages residents of all socioeconomic levels into a discussion about poverty and to build awareness of the needs of persons in poverty. The goal of the initiative is to create a community-based, ally-oriented approach to assisting persons in poverty. Larimer County is one of five Circles sites in Colorado. Nationally, the success rate for the program is 42 percent and, although lower than ideal, has the potential to move a large number of people out of poverty and into self-sufficiency. Packet Pg. 262 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION III, PAGE 11 Larimer County Workforce Center. The Larimer County Workforce Center’s mission is to “improve the quality of life for individuals, families and communities through employment and workforce development services.” The Center provides a wide variety of services from job postings to resume building toolkits to networking opportunities. Some of their services target specific populations including youth and veterans. For example, the Center offers youth professionalism workshops, tours of potential employers and an online list of “youth-friendly” employers with minimum hiring age. Emerging practices to break the cycle of poverty. Two organization in Fort Collins have focused in recent years on identifying the underlying causes of poverty and developing strategies, as well as community awareness, to address the many challenges of poverty. Bridges out of Poverty (Bohemian Foundation). The Bohemian Foundation’s two-year pilot initiative, Bridges out of Poverty Northern Colorado, is an effort to bring together public, private, faith-based and nonprofit organizations to build partnerships related to addressing poverty. The Foundation provides training to area businesses, nonprofits, educators and community members to increase awareness of poverty and provide them with tools to address community poverty and their own organizational or individual economic challenges. Pathways Past Poverty. The Pathways Past Poverty (PPP) initiative is a program in collaboration with Colorado State University, the Northern Colorado Economic Development Council (NCEDC), The Coloradoan, and several nonprofit organizations. The program was started in response to the increase in poverty in the City and Larimer County. PPP developed a “Prioritized Goals Master Document” to guide the United Way’s and partners’ efforts in addressing poverty. This strategic plan has not yet been implemented; some of the goals may need updating to reflect the current economic environment in the City. Yet many of the goals hit on the underlying needs—and solutions—for addressing poverty in the City and county. In sum, these include: Highest priority Child care. Ensure families in Larimer County have access to quality child care. Job and skills development. Significantly increase the availability of, access to and quality of job training, critical life skills and education opportunities. Housing. Develop and implement a multi-dimensional approach to low income housing to ensure that no persons or families lack access to adequate housing. Community networks. Ensure that families facing poverty have the opportunity to take part in a community supported process that enhances their own individual and family resources. Increase awareness of diversity and poverty. Health and wellness. Develop and implement a multifaceted integrated health care, wellness and preventative system. Packet Pg. 263 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION III, PAGE 12 Secondary priority Transportation. Develop and implement a seamless, affordable, integrated multi-modal transportation system. Education. Increase the academic success of all youth in Larimer County. Financial justice. Level the playing field for those in poverty (create countywide systemic change). Financial stability. Increase the level of financial literacy and stability in the community. Packet Pg. 264 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) SECTION IV. Health and Wellness Packet Pg. 265 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 1 SECTION IV. Health and Wellness This section discusses the physical and mental health of Fort Collins residents and their access to wellness and recreation options and healthy food. Physical and Mental Health The characteristics of Fort Collins residents who are vulnerable to physical and mental health difficulties and the resources available to these populations follow. The types of health risks discussed include: Obesity, Sexually transmitted infections and HIV/AIDS, Mental illness and suicides, and Substance abuse. Prevalence. This section estimates the number of Fort Collins residents with physical and mental health difficulties, based on available prevalence rates. Obesity. Based on rates calculated from the 2011‐2012 Colorado Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, more than 38,000 Fort Collins residents age 18 and older are overweight and more than 18,000 are obese. Obesity rates are highest for middle age adults, as shown in Figure IV‐1, and lowest for young adults. A 2013 report on child well‐being in Colorado (Kids Count in Colorado!) places Larimer County toward the bottom of counties for low rates of child obesity, suggesting that the low rate for 18‐24 year olds reflects that of young adults moving to the City to attend college. The obesity measure is a departure from other statistics, in which the county scored near the top. Kids Count reports that 31 percent of children in Larimer County are overweight or obese, higher than for the state overall (28%). Packet Pg. 266 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 2 Figure IV‐1. Overweight and Obese Residents by Age Group, Fort Collins, 2011‐2012 Note: Overweight is defined as a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 25.0 and less than 30.0. Obese is defined as a BMI of 30.0 or higher. Source: Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, Colorado Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Statistics, Larimer County, 2011‐2012 and 2012 ACS. Sexually transmitted infections (STI) and HIV/AIDS. The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment’s STI/HIV surveillance program reports the number of new STI and HIV cases in each county. Larimer County’s statistics for chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphilis and HIV are shown from 2008 to 2012 in Figure IV‐2. From 2011 to 2012, the rate of chlamydia cases increased by 20 percent, gonorrhea by 34 percent, syphilis a four‐fold increase and new HIV cases increased by 26 percent. Despite these increases, the 2012 STI/HIV rate per 100,000 population for each is much lower in Larimer County than found statewide. Figure IV‐2. New STI/HIV Cases, Larimer County, 2008‐2012 Source: Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, STI/HIV Surveillance Program Larimer County Five‐Year Trend Tables, August 2013. Mental illness. Figure IV‐3 presents estimates of the Fort Collins population with serious mental illness and any mental illness, including mild disorders. Approximately 6,500 adults have serious mental illness. The National Institute on Mental Health reports that 58.7 percent of adults with serious mental illness seek treatment.1 Applying that statistic to Fort Collins adults with serious mental illness suggests that approximately 2,700 adults have not sought treatment. Untreated serious mental illness has both personal and social costs, including unemployment, disability, risk of suicide, substance use disorders, homelessness, and can strain law enforcement and emergency response services. 1 http://www.nimh.nih.gov/statistics/3USE_MT_ADULT.shtml Age Group 18‐24 20% 6,408 5% 1,766 25‐34 33% 8,558 17% 4,421 35‐44 37% 6,099 18% 2,909 45‐54 41% 7,636 21% 3,837 55‐64 39% 5,572 20% 2,765 65+ 35% 4,335 22% 2,703 % Overweight # Overweight % Obese # Obese 2008 771 263.7 74 25.3 8 2.7 12 4.1 2009 120 242.0 41 13.8 3 1 7 2.4 2010 741 247.3 33 11.0 2 0.7 11 3.7 2011 885 279.8 33 10.8 1 0.3 7 2.3 2012 1,039 334.6 45 14.5 4 1.3 9 2.9 Colorado 2012 21,631 471 2,822 54.4 208 4 390 7.5 Rate per 100,000 Cases Rate per 100,000 Chlamydia Gonorrhea Syphilis Newly Diagnosed HIV Rate per Cases 100,000 Cases Rate per 100,000 Cases Packet Pg. 267 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 3 According to the Institute on Mental Health data, mental illness among adolescents is much higher, for both serious mental illnesses and any mental illness. According to the data, as many as 1,500 adolescents have a serious mental illness (8% of adolescents) and 8,000 have any type of mental illness (43%). Figure IV‐3. Prevalence of Mental Illness Among Fort Collins Adults and Adolescents Note: Adults are residents ages 20 and older. Adolescents are residents ages 10 to 19. Source: BBC Research & Consulting from 2012 ACS and “Prevalence of Mental Illness in the United States: Data Sources and Estimates,” Congressional Research Service, April 24, 2013. Suicide. In its most severe state, mental illness can lead to residents taking their own lives. Figure IV‐4 presents trends in suicide attempts and suicide mortality rates for Larimer County from 2002 through 2012.As shown, rates of suicide attempts have been declining annually since the peak year 2009. And, according to the Alliance for Suicide Prevention, youth suicides have decreased dramatically, declining by 50 percent since 2005. Overall suicide mortality rates fluctuate annually, and reached a new peak in 2012 of 22.5 suicides per 100,000 residents, compared to 20.3 statewide. For Fort Collins, this means that approximately 35 residents die each year due to suicide. The Alliance for Suicide Prevention reports that just 29 percent of county residents who committed suicide in 2012 were receiving mental health treatment; this is based on data from the Larimer County Coroner’s 2012 Annual Report. The individuals who died by suicide in 2012 ranged from 16 to 91 years old and the average age was 49 years old. Serious mental illness ‐ adults 5.8% 6,501 Serious mental illness ‐ adolescents 8% 1,509 Any mental illness, including mild disorders ‐ adults 25% 27,799 Any mental illness, including mild disorders ‐ adolescents 43% 8,034 Prevalence # of Individuals in Fort Collins Packet Pg. 268 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 4 Figure IV‐4. Trends in Suicide Attempts and Suicide Mortality Rates, Larimer County, 2002‐2012 Source: COMPASS of Larimer County and Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, Colorado Health Information Dataset. Substance use disorders. The number of Fort Collins residents with alcohol and drug use disorders is based on prevalence rates found in the Archive of General Psychiatry. The difference between abuse and dependence is based on criteria outlined in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM‐IV).2 Broadly, alcohol or drug abuse is characterized by alcohol‐related or drug‐related absences from work or school, driving while impaired, substance use‐related legal problems, and negative social interactions caused by substance use. Dependence characteristics include high tolerance for alcohol or drugs, withdrawal symptoms, managing withdrawal symptoms by continued alcohol or drug use, reduced social or work activities due to substance use, devoting time to use a substance or recover from its effects, continued substance use despite other physical or psychological problems. Based on these criteria, about 26,000 Fort Collins residents abuse alcohol and more than 11,000 abuse drugs. There is likely overlap between these numbers and those in Figure IV‐3, as substance use disorders are often correlated with mental illness and physical health problems. 2 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK44358/ Packet Pg. 269 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 5 Figure IV‐5. Estimates of Fort Collins Residents with Substance Use Abuse and Dependence Note: The prevalence rates are age‐adjusted lifetime rates. Source: BBC Research & Consulting from 2012 ACS and “Prevalence, correlates, disability, and comorbidity of DSM‐IV alcohol abuse and dependence in the United States: results from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions,” Archive of General Psychiatry, Volume 64, Number 7, July 2007 and “Prevalence, correlates, disability and comorbidity of DSM‐IV drug abuse and dependence in the United States: results from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions,” Archive of General Psychiatry, Volume 64, Number 5, May 2007. Resources. This section provides an overview of the organizations and services in Fort Collins that assist residents with maintaining and improving their physical and mental health. It is not comprehensive, but provides an overview of organizations working on these challenging issues. Some organizations have a broad health and wellness mission, while others are dedicated to serving specific subpopulations in Fort Collins or Larimer County. The section is organized around three broad categories: Programs to reduce the costs of health care, Affordable health care clinics and providers, Mental health providers, and Wellness focused providers. Programs to reduce the costs of health care. Reduced fee health care. Discounted health care services are provided to low income Colorado residents through the Colorado Indigent Care Program (CICP) by participating providers. While not a health insurance program, CICP subsidizes patient care by compensating providers with federal and state dollars. Qualifying residents are either uninsured or underinsured and have incomes at or below 250 percent of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL). Figure IV‐6 presents trends in the number of Larimer County CICP admissions and patient visits to participating health care providers. Three Larimer County clinics and six hospitals participated in CICP in the 2011‐2012 fiscal year. From 2000 to 2012, the number of admissions and patient visits to health care providers subsidized by the CICP increased by 237 percent, from 15,950 CICP admissions and visits to 53,776. Lifetime alcohol abuse 17.8% 26,457 Lifetime alcohol dependence 12.5% 18,579 Lifetime drug abuse 7.7% 11,445 Lifetime drug dependence 2.6% 3,864 Prevalence # of Fort Collins Individuals Packet Pg. 270 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 6 Figure IV‐6. Colorado Indigent Care Program Admissions and Visits by Larimer County Residents, 2000‐2012 Note: Numbers reflect admissions and visits by Larimer County residents, not unduplicated patients. Source: Colorado Health Institute from the Colorado Department of Health Care Policy and Financing. Health insurance. According to the 2012 ACS, nearly 9 in10 Fort Collins residents have health insurance. Among these, the majority is covered by private insurance, but 28,914 residents also have some form of public coverage, such as Medicaid or Medicare. At the time of this writing (November 2013), it is premature to speculate as to how implementation of the Affordable Care Act will impact health insurance coverage rates in Fort Collins. The Act’s aim is to incentivize the 16,809 Fort Collins residents who have no health insurance coverage to become insured. Figure IV‐7. Health Insurance Coverage Status, Fort Collins Residents, 2012 Source: 2012 ACS. Medicaid enrollment. Figure IV‐8 presents the Larimer County Medicaid enrollment from 2010 through September 2013. Qualified residents under age 21 participate in Medicaid’s Early and Periodic Screening, Diagnosis, and Treatment (EPSDT) program. Since 2010, the number of children and adolescents in Larimer County on Medicaid grew by 36 percent and adult participation grew by 53 percent. As part of Colorado’s implementation of the Affordable Care Packet Pg. 271 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 7 Act, Medicaid eligibility was expanded to additional populations; as such, growth in Medicaid enrollment is likely. Figure IV‐8. Average Monthly Medicaid Enrollment, Larimer County 2010‐2013 Note: Data for 2013 are the September 2013 caseload. Source: Colorado Department of Health Care Policy and Financing. Eligible for Medicaid/CHP+ but not enrolled. Figure IV‐9 presents the percentage and number of Larimer County children (under age 18) who were eligible for coverage under Medicaid or CHP+ but were not enrolled from 2008 to 2010. In 2010, the Colorado Health Institute estimated that 1,158 Larimer County adults were eligible for Medicaid but not enrolled—about 22 percent of the eligible population. With the implementation of the Affordable Care Act and the expansion of Medicaid eligibility in Colorado, continued outreach to these populations will be important. Figure IV‐9. Percentage of and Number of Children Eligible for Medicaid or CHP+ But Not Enrolled, Larimer County, 2008‐2010 Source: Colorado Health Institute. 2008 17% 26% 1,903 1,164 2009 18% 36% 2,400 1,845 2010 7% 28% 901 1,270 Medicaid CHP+ Medicaid CHP+ % of Children Eligible But Not Enrolled # of Children Eligible But Not Enrolled Packet Pg. 272 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 8 Affordable health care clinics and providers. Providers accepting new Medicaid clients. According to Larimer County, in October 2013, 11 providers in Fort Collins were accepting new Medicaid patients for non‐emergency care. Figure IV‐10 maps and names these providers, shown in reference to poverty rates. Three of the 11 providers are located in high poverty areas. Figure IV‐10. Location and Name of Providers Accepting New Medicaid Patients, 2013 Note: This map shows only those providers indicated by Larimer County as accepting new Medicaid patients as of October 3, 2013. Other providers may accept new Medicaid patients. Source: http://larimer.org/health/chs/medicaid_health.pdf. Health District of Northern Larimer County. The Health District of Northern Colorado serves the City of Fort Collins and other Northern Colorado communities. As a special tax district created by voters in 1960, the Health District is funded by property taxes. Health District programs include blood pressure and cholesterol screening, community impact team, dental connections, mental health connections, family dental clinic, and prescription assistance. Through its Mental Health Connections program (a partnership with Touchstone Health Partners), the Health District connects residents in need of mental health care services to local providers, affordable prescriptions, and support and advice. The Health District also partners with other Fort Collins and Larimer County health care providers and governments to address health care needs. Packet Pg. 273 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 9 Fort Collins Salud Family Health Center. The Fort Collins Salud Family Health Center provides primary care and preventive care services for families and children, and accepts Medicaid, Medicare, CHP+ and private insurance. Staff are bilingual and the Center caters in large part to the Hispanic community in Fort Collins. Salud also has a mobile clinic to serve the migrant farmworker population in Larimer County. The Fort Collins clinic also provides Medicaid and CHP+ enrollment services. Salud serves more than 12,000 patients per year. Overall, 41 percent are uninsured, and the majority qualifies for Medicaid. As implementation of the Affordable Care Act continues, they anticipate that the share of patients covered by Medicaid may increase by as much as 20 percent. Women’s Resource Center. The Women’s Resource Center provides health education and outreach and preventive care services to women living on incomes below the poverty line in Fort Collins. Services include cancer and diabetes prevention screening, dental care, breast and cervical care, and outreach and education. In partnership with Larimer County Community Corrections, the Women’s Resource Center has developed a new program—Help for Incarcerated Women—to educate incarcerated women about preventive health care and to work with these women on their mental and physical health. Mental health providers. Touchstone Health Partners (formerly Larimer Center for Mental Health). Touchstone Health Partners (THP) provides outpatient mental health and addiction services at five locations in Fort Collins. THP has programs that serve children, adolescents, adults, and families across the spectrum of behavioral and mental health and substance use disorders. In addition to providing direct services at the Fort Collins clinics, THP also partners with other organizations and agencies in a resource and referral capacity. Touchstone is the primary mental health and substance use disorder treatment provider for low income residents of Fort Collins. In 2012, Touchstone served more than 6,100 patients in Larimer County of whom 90 percent were on Medicaid. One‐third of their clients are youth between the ages of 0 and 18. Clients can usually be seen for an initial evaluation in two to four days. Appointments to see a psychiatrist or psychologist can take four to six weeks; there is a waitlist for these services. Alliance for Suicide Prevention of Larimer County. The Alliance for Suicide Prevention of Larimer County provides outreach, education and resource referrals to Larimer County adolescents and adults with the mission of suicide prevention. School and community based education programs are delivered by trained volunteers in area middle and high schools as part of required health classes. The Alliance offers support groups for families and friends of individuals who committed suicide (two groups per month) and support groups for persons living with depression and bipolar disorder. The organization also works as a “broker” to family members and friends who identify someone at risk of suicide by connecting them with the appropriate resources. Residential treatment facilities and sober living housing. Figure IV‐11 summarizes the results of searches to identify residential treatment facilities and sober living houses. Three residential treatment facilities provide intensive treatment for adolescents with serious mental illness or substance use disorders. Packet Pg. 274 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 10 Only Mountain Crest Behavioral Healthcare Center Inpatient Hospitalization offers adult inpatient treatment for serious mental illness stabilization or substance use detoxification. Average stays are four to five days and are not a substitute for longer term residential treatment for adults. The study team identified one sober living facility for men in Fort Collins—the Lighthouse—and could identify no others. Figure IV‐11. Residential Treatment Centers and Sober Living Facilities/Homes in Fort Collins Source: BBC Research & Consulting from provider websites and interviews. Wellness‐focused providers. Coalition for Activity and Nutrition to Defeat Obesity (CanDo). CanDo Fort Collins is a coalition of community members, both individuals and organizations, who work to improve health and wellness of Fort Collins residents. CanDo has several subcommittees focusing on: the food environment, the built environment, community gardens, school wellness, and worksite wellness. CanDo staff also facilitate the “Vida Sana Coalition” to promote health equity for Hispanic/Latino and low‐income residents. The coalition meets quarterly as a whole to review progress and share successes. The overall mission of CanDo is to “improve the health of Larimer County communities by increasing physical activity and healthy eating to reduce and prevent obesity.” Specifically, CanDo works to: Reduce the prevalence of overweight and obesity among citizens, Increase the percent of citizens who engage in regular physical activity, Increase the percent of citizens who practice healthy eating habits, and Create environments and policies that support healthy eating, active living, and healthy weights. University of Colorado Health (formerly Poudre Valley Health System). Through a network of community clinics, the Poudre Valley Hospital, Harmony Urgent Care, and the Mountain Crest Behavioral Health Care Center, University of Colorado Health (UCH) provides evidence‐based health care services in Fort Collins. UCH is a partner in the CanDo coalition to reduce obesity in Fort Collins. Inpatient / Residential Treatment Center Jacob Center Remington House RTC 20 Ages 10 to 18 6 months Turning Point RTC for Boys 20 Ages 12 to 21 ? Turning Point RTC for Girls 14 Ages 12 to 21 ? Mountain Crest Behavioral Healthcare Center Adolescent Residential Program Adolescents 3 months Mountain Crest Behavioral Healthcare Center Inpatient Hospitalization All 4 to 5 days Sober Living Facilities The Lighthouse Men Number of Beds Average Length of Stay Populations Served Packet Pg. 275 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 11 Wellness Council of America (WELCOA). WELCOA is a national organization dedicated to promoting healthy workplaces. The council provides resources, tools, and training to achieve wellness goals. The city of Fort Collins is designed as a Well City and has 24 different businesses currently participating in the program, including Poudre Valley Health System, Anheuser‐Busch, and Miramont Sport Center. Each year WELCOA gives Well Workplace awards that recognize quality and excellence in worksite health promotion. The awards are determined based upon a pre‐defined set of criteria. United Way of Larimer County was a Gold winner in 2012, and in 2011 Larimer County Government was a Gold winner. Gaps. Gaps in health care services, especially mental health care, are difficult to estimate because it is difficult to identify those who have needs but are unaware and undiagnosed. Another complicating factor is those residents who need treatment but desire not to obtain it, even if available. Efforts to mitigate gaps in health care provision should involve easy access to care, especially for residents who are low income and transit dependent, and for residents who have severe mental illnesses and substance abuse and are incapable of planning in advance to receive care, but instead need walk‐in or emergency access to clinics. To that end, the graphic attached to this section aims to identify the most significant, identifiable gaps in health care provision. Quantitative gaps are difficult to quantify without a more in‐depth study. The most significant gaps, based on service provider inventory and agency interviews, include the following: Lack of capacity for the provision of mental health and substance use disorder treatment (e.g., walk in sites), particularly for low income residents lacking private insurance. No long‐term residential treatment programs for women with either mental health difficulties or substance use disorders. Only one facility for men. No residential treatment facilities for children under age 10 with behavioral or mental illness. For mental health and substance abuse services, consistency and depth of care is critical for treatment and recovery. Cost‐constrained organizations may not be able to adequately treat residents due to large caseloads or restrictions on insurance reimbursements. Wellness and Recreation Colorado communities often lead the nation in measures of residents who are active and fit. For example, Denver Metropolitan Area (MSA) is ranked fifth out of 50 MSAs in the U.S. by ACSM American Fitness Index.3 Like Colorado as a whole, Larimer County has an active population, which continues to grow. According to Larimer County Compass, the number of active adults in the county 18 and older climbed from 52 percent in 2005 to 65 percent in 2011. 4 The percentages represent residents who practice regular, moderate physical activity at least 5 times per week for a minimum of 30 minutes, or residents who performed vigorous exercise three or 3 http://americanfitnessindex.org/docs/reports/2013_afi_report_final.pdf 4 United Way of Larimer County and Larimer County Human Services Department, 2013 Community Indicators Report, Larimer County, Colorado Packet Pg. 276 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 12 more times per week for at least 20 minutes. In sum, the majority of Larimer County residents are exercising regularly. Similarly, the Colorado Child Well‐Being Index, created by the Colorado Children’s Campaign, ranked Larimer County as the fifth highest (in terms of child well‐being) of the state’s 25 largest counties. The index uses 12 indicators measuring health, family and economic circumstances, and educational achievement. Part of the reason for the high rankings is that the county and City make it easy for residents to recreate. The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) reports that 86 percent of residents in Larimer County have sidewalks or shoulders in their neighborhood that are “sufficient to safely walk, run, or bike.” Seventy percent have access to a public exercise facility in their neighborhood. The City of Fort Collins offers a broad array of recreation opportunities for its residents. In the City alone, there are 600 acres of parks, approximately 40,000 acres of natural areas, 20 miles of off‐street hiking and biking trails, three golf courses, a racquet center, three swimming pools, an ice rink and a community center. Other resources include a cultural arts center, a senior center, and a discovery center for children. The City offers reduced fees for these programs for low income residents and City or school district residency. Figure IV‐12 lists the recreational and community facilities maintained by the City. Figure IV‐12. City of Fort Collins Parks and Recreation Facilities Source: BBC Research & Consulting. The City of Fort Collins maintains more than 50 parks. The City parks website provides detailed information as to recreation and services that each park offers.5 Nineteen of the parks provide at least 10 different recreational services or amenities. At least half of the parks offer basketball courts, playground (38 parks), water fountain, restrooms, shelter and turf fields. The City’s three 5 http://www.fcgov.com/parks/map/ Facility Description Type of Facility Street Address City Park Pool Outdoor pool 1599 City Park Ave Club Tico Community gathering place, for rent 1599 City Park Ave Edora Pool & Ice Center (EPIC) Indoor pool, ice center, workout facilities 1801 Riverside Ave The Farm at Lee Martinez Park Farm animals, museum, family fun 600 N Sherwood St Mulberry Pool Indoor pool 424 W Mulberry St Northside Aztlan Community Center Full service recreation center 112 E Willow St Pottery Studio Community pottery studio 1541 W Oak St Fort Collins Senior Center Full service recreation center for seniors 1200 Raintree Dr Rolland Moore Racquet Complex Community tennis and racquet ball courts 2201 N Shields St Youth Activity Center Full court gym 415 E Monroe Dr Packet Pg. 277 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 13 golf courses include one 9‐hole course and two 18‐hole courses. According to Golfsmith6 the median cost for 18 holes of golf at a public course in the U.S. is $36. At the Collindale golf course in Fort Collins, the cost is $20. Figure IV‐13 shows all park locations within the City, overlaid with areas of poverty concentration. As can be seen from the Figure, poverty does not appear to be a barrier in terms of access to neighborhood parks. In fact, one of the City’s most highly rated parks, City Park and City Park Pool, is located on West Mulberry Street near a high poverty level concentration area. Figure IV‐13. Park Locations and Poverty Concentrations Source: BBC Research & Consulting. Park locations from City of Fort Collins web page. There are also 42 natural areas that the City maintains and 23 natural areas that are wheelchair accessible. The information about the areas is easy to find on the City’s website via the natural areas finder.7 By clicking on the wheelchair icon on the site, all of the accessible natural areas are presented for easy viewing. 6 http://golftips.golfsmith.com/average‐cost‐round‐golf‐20670.html 7 http://www.fcgov.com/naturalareas/finder Packet Pg. 278 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 14 Gaps. In the case of wellness and recreation, the gap is not necessarily in service provision or lack of infrastructure, but in participation and adoption of a healthy lifestyle. That is, Fort Collins has many opportunities for its residents, including children, to improve their fitness level and overall health. But not all residents take advantage of these, as evidenced in the following statistics for Larimer County from the CDPHE data. Figure IV‐14. Child and Teen Healthy Lifestyle Indicators, Larimer County Source: Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, Healthy Indicators, Larimer County. According to CanDo, watching television has been associated with an increased Body Mass Index, one measure of obesity. Resources to improve health overall. Fort Collins has several programs and initiatives to provide opportunities for residents to engage in healthy activities. Healthy Kids Club. Healthy Kids Club is a community outreach program, sponsored by Poudre Valley Health System, to promote health and wellness in local elementary school students. Healthy Kids Club partners with schools and agencies that serve youth in Fort Collins, Loveland, and Windsor and provides in‐school healthy lifestyle education programs. Safe Routes to School is a national program seeking to increase the number of students and parents safely walking and bicycling to school. Fort Collins’ program is administered by the City. The City organizes adult leaders to oversee groups of children walking and biking to school. Fort Collins was also recently awarded a grant from the Colorado Department of Transportation through the state’s Safe Routes to School program to develop walking and biking paths to a local elementary. There are several programs and organizations that focus on encouraging wellness among the City’s most at‐risk populations—with the ultimate goal of reducing child obesity. Recreational resources targeted to at‐risk youth. Children who are considered at‐risk (Section V of this report discusses at‐risk youth in detail) have opportunities in the Fort Collins area to participate in healthy activities and receive a healthy meal at least once daily. Healthy Lifestyle Indicators Children age 1‐14 years spending two hours per day or less in front of a screen (e.g., TV, computer, video games etc.) on weekdays in 2010 81% Children age 5‐14 years are physically active for 60 minutes seven days per week in 2009‐2010 33% Teens in grades 9‐12 are physically active for 60 minutes seven days per week in 2011 29% Teens in grades 9‐12 spend two hours per day or less watching TV on weekdays in 2011 79% Teens in grades 9‐12 spend two hours per day or less playing video or computer games on weekdays in 2011 76% Percent Packet Pg. 279 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 15 North Aztlan Community Center. The North Aztlan Community Center offers wellness and recreation for at‐risk youth. Two such programs are Kids Café and Youth Nights. Kids Cafe. The Food Bank of Larimer County Kids Café program provides children between the ages of 3 and 18 who are at risk of hunger access to a free, nutritious meal. The meals are offered weeknights; an accompanying parent may receive a $2.00 meal. Youth Nights. Every Thursday from 3 to 9 p.m., the North Aztlan Community Center offers youth activities for free. Activities include arena football, dodgeball, indoor soccer, ping pong tournaments, teen weights, field trips, dance, fitness, food, prizes, and more. Steve’s Club Battle Ready. Steve’s Club provides cross‐fit programs for at‐risk youth at participating gyms. The organization, based in Northern Colorado, provides fitness programs with some school tutoring to at‐risk youth. Program participants pay a small fee or may receive a scholarship. Fort Collins is the site of the organization’s annual fundraising event benefiting at‐ risk youth called “Beat the Streets.” Boys & Girls Club. The Boys & Girls Clubs of Larimer County provides after school programs for youth, from 2:30 to 7 p.m. during the school year. When school is not in session (summer and holiday breaks), programs are available for full days. The Clubs are proven programs for at‐risk youth that are built on five core program areas: the arts; character and leadership development; education, technology and career development; health and life skills; and sports, fitness, and recreational opportunities. Miramont Lifestyle Fitness. Miramont offers limited free summer memberships to youth ages 14‐17. Food Provision This section discusses access to health food, for residents overall in Fort Collins and those who are food insecure. Definition—access to healthy food retailers. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) developed the Modified Retail Food Environment Index (mRFEI) to measure the “number of health and less health food retailers within census tracts across each state as defined by typical food offerings in specific types of retail stores (e.g., supermarkets, convenience stores, or fast food restaurants). Out of the total number of food retailers considered healthy or less healthy, the mRFEI represents the percentage that are healthy.”8 Figure IV‐15 presents the mRFEI for census tracts in Fort Collins. As shown, only one census tract has no healthy food outlets, but there are many census tracts where up to 11 out of 100 food outlets are healthy, and the remainders are unhealthy—convenience stores, small grocery stores (fewer than 4 employees) or fast food outlets. Figure IV‐15. 8 http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/resources/reports.html. Packet Pg. 280 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 16 Modified Retail Food Environment Index Note: The index increases as number of healthy food outlets in a Census tract increases. Source: BBC Research & Consulting from the MRFEI dataset complied by the Centers for Disease Control, 2011. CDPHE’s Health Indicators for Larimer County estimates that there are 8.24 fast food restaurants in Larimer County per 10,000 residents, compared to 0.87 healthy food outlets per 10,000 residents—or about 9.5 times as many fast food restaurants as health food outlets. Yet the vast majority of residents say that healthy food is somewhat or very available in their neighborhoods. Figure IV‐16. Access to Healthy Food Indicators, Larimer County Source: Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, Health Indicators, Larimer County. Healthy Food Indicators Rate of fast food restaurants per 10,000 residents 8.24 Rate of healthy food outlets per 10,000 residents 0.87 Percent who say fresh fruits, vegetables, and other healthful foods (such as whole grain breads or low fat dairy products) are somewhat or very available in their neighborhood 95% Packet Pg. 281 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 17 As mentioned above, about one‐third of the City’s children are considered obese. As Figure IV‐17 suggests, the eating habits of children and teens in Larimer County contribute to this statistic. Children, in particular, are much more likely to consume fast food rather than fruits or vegetables. Figure IV‐17. Healthy Eating Indicators—Larimer County Children and Teens Source: Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, Health Indicators, Larimer County. Definition—food insecurity. According to COMPASS, “food insecurity” refers to the lack of access to enough food to fully meet basic needs at all times due to lack of financial resources.9 The inverse, “food security,” means access by all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life. At a minimum, this includes the ready availability of nutritionally adequate and safe foods and the assured ability to acquire personally acceptable foods in a socially acceptable way.10 Fort Collins population. Estimates from the USDA suggest that 14 percent of Colorado household have “low or very low” food security, with 5.8 percent having very low security.11 This is based on a 2010‐12 survey of food security supplements. Applying this prevalence rate to Fort Collins households suggests that as many as 8,200 households are food insecure, with 3,400 being very insecure. National data on food insecurity show that the households most likely to be food insecure are single parents with children, African American and Hispanic and living at 185 percent below the poverty level ($44,000) or less. As discussed in the at‐risk youth section, this is similar to the qualifying threshold for reduced lunches in public schools. 9 United States Department of Agriculture, http://www.frac.org/html/hunger_in_the_us/hunger_index.html. http://www.frac.org/html/hunger_in_the_us/hunger_index.html . 10 http://www.larimer.org/compass/household_food_supply_report.pdf. 11 http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food‐nutrition‐assistance/food‐security‐in‐the‐us/key‐statistics‐graphics.aspx#map. Healthy Eating Indicators Children age 1‐14 years ate fruit two or more times per day and vegetables three or more times per day in 2008‐2010 13.3% Children age 1‐14 years ate fast food one or more times per week in 2009‐2010 64.6% Children age 1‐14 years consumed one or more sweetened drinks per day in 2009‐2010 15.5% Teens in grades 9‐12 have tried to lose weight in 2011 39.6% Teens in grades 9‐12 ate fruit two or more times per day in 2011 32.5% Teens in grades 9‐12 ate vegetables two or more times per day in 2011 28.1% Teens in grades 9‐12 consumed one or more sodas per day in 2011 23.0% Percent Packet Pg. 282 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 18 Vida Sana, a community coalition addressing health disparities among Hispanic and low income households in North Fort Collins, reports that 65 percent of Hispanics are overweight in Colorado and 25 percent are obese—rates much higher than for the state overall (55% and 18%). 12 Resources. As discussed above, CanDo Fort Collins works to improve health indicators, including access to healthy food. This section instead discusses the core programs that address food insecurity. Sales tax rebate program. The City offers a rebate to low income residents for sales tax paid on food. Qualification for the rebate is based on annual household income. The maximum amount received through the rebate program is currently $54 per household member. Applications for the rebate can be downloaded from the City’s website at http://www.fcgov.com/rebate/ Food stamps. Figure IV‐18 presents the increased reliance on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP or food stamps) by Larimer County residents from 2006 through 2011. During that period, participation in the program increased by 81 percent. This is due to both increased need as well as expansion of benefit eligibility qualifications. It is important to note that qualification for SNAP and food stamp benefits are changing, due to federal budget cuts. It is likely that fewer Larimer County households will have food stamp benefits in 2014. Figure IV‐18. Total Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Participants, Larimer County, 2006‐2011 Source: United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, 2013. Free and reduced lunch (FRL). According to Compass of Larimer County, 27,121 children in the Poudre School District (PSD), or 29 percent of all children in the district, were enrolled in the FRL program during the 2012‐13 school year. Two elementary schools also provide free breakfast to all classes. The number of students enrolled in the program has steadily increased during the past 10 years, rising by 2,840, or 12 percent, since the 2003‐04 school year. The largest increase occurred in 12 http://www.candoonline.org/sites/default/files/Vida_Sana_Powerpoint.pdf Packet Pg. 283 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION IV, PAGE 19 2009, when 1,200 more children enrolled in the program; this was followed by a slight decline the following year, as shown in Figure IV‐19. Figure IV‐19. Free and Reduced Lunch Enrollment and Eligibility, Poudre School District, 2003‐04 to 2012‐13 Source: Larimer County Compass, http://www.larimer.org/compass/schooll unch_ec_inc.htm. Food banks. Fort Collins has two soup kitchens, 17 food pantries, and 13 residential/day programs that serve meals. The largest provider, the Food Bank of Larimer County, provides free food to nearly 13,000 people every month. In fiscal year ending in June 2013, the Food Bank provided 28,652 individuals with food at their food pantries. The Food Bank partners with many nonprofits in the county to deliver food supplements at pantries, shelters, through childcare programs, and to persons who are frail and elderly and have disabilities. The Food Bank also has a program for children called Kids Café, which provides children ages 3 to 18 who are at risk of hunger with meals after school and during the summer months. They served more than 70,000 meals per year through this program. The program focuses on providing nutritious, healthy meals to low income children, whose rates of obesity are higher than others. The Food Bank’s goal is for 50 percent of its food to be fresh produce and fresh healthy foods. They currently have a dietician on staff who works to create healthy recipes for families using the food pantry. In the future, the Food Bank hopes to have a great focus on healthy eating and obesity prevention. Gaps. Access to food, except for the economic ability to purchase healthy food, appears to be less of a gap in food provision in Fort Collins than in adopting and maintaining healthy eating habits. This may change in the next year, however, when the food stamp program’s funding is reduced and fewer Fort Collins’ residents quality. Food pantries may find increased demand for food supplements from both low and moderate income households. Packet Pg. 284 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) SECTION V. At‐Risk Youth and Education Packet Pg. 285 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 1 SECTION V. At‐Risk Youth and Education This section discusses the sustainability of the City’s youth. A significant portion of the section is dedicated to educational opportunities and challenges since educational systems are an integral part of improving outcomes for youth. It should be noted that this section is not all inclusive of children with needs but instead focus on children who are at‐risk of poor educational outcomes and economic difficulties. Other types of children with special needs—e.g., children with disabilities—are covered in other sections. The section begins by defining and discussing the youth most vulnerable in Fort Collins, those who are considered “at‐risk.” At‐Risk Youth Definition. Statistics on at‐risk youth can be difficult to obtain due to the protection of information about children, as well as varying definitions of “at‐risk.” The National Center for Educational Statistics focuses on students who are at‐risk of “educational failure” and has documented the relationship between at‐youth at‐risk and family socioeconomic status. As such, poverty and/or low economic status is one of the most common variables used to indicate at‐risk youth. It is an imperfect measure in some ways—e.g., the poverty threshold is fixed and does not accurately represent differences in cost of living among cities—but is easy to obtain, track, and use in research. Children eligible for free and reduced lunch (FRL) is another economic indicator of risk that is used by educational departments to identify at‐risk youth and target educational reform programs. Similar to the federal poverty threshold, the FRL threshold is fixed and does not vary by state or jurisdiction. Currently, children are eligible to receive free lunches if their families earn less than 130 percent of the federal poverty threshold and reduced lunch prices if earning between 130 and 185 of the poverty threshold. This translates into income levels of roughly $30,600 for free lunch eligibility and $30,600 to $43,600 for reduced lunch eligibility, both for a family of four.1 1 Paul Tough, in his recent book “How Children Succeed,” argues that FRL is a weak measure of children in need because of the wide eligibility income range, an argument that could be applied to many definitions of low income and socioeconomic status. Children living in families earning $10,000, for example, likely have much greater needs and potentially higher risks of academic failure than those living in households at the higher end of the threshold ($44,000). These higher risk factors, according to Tough, include no adult in the household who is consistently employed, mental health, substance abuse in the household, and potential child abuse and neglect. Tough further argues that children living in high poverty households also have psychological challenges, many related to poor parenting, that make the learning environment very challenging. The experience of stress and trauma as a child can lead to poor executive functioning, difficulty handling stressful situations, poor concentration, difficulty following directions, and social impairment. These children, therefore, require different interventions and reforms than those at the “middle class” end of the FRL spectrum. Packet Pg. 286 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 2 Statistics on educational challenges of youth abound and many can also be used to identify children at‐risk. These data include high school drop‐out rates, mobility and stability rates (children remaining in school during the entire year), suspension and expulsion, and standardized test scores. Another category of youth at‐risk is children left at home alone because their parents cannot find the care they need. The number of children left at home alone on a regular basis is unknown. Providers believe these children include children from low as well as moderate income families, who don’t qualify for subsidies and can’t afford market rate afterschool and/or summer camp costs. Finally, some health statistics—teen pregnancies, children who have been abused and neglected—are available to the public and can be used to identify the number and proportion of children with high risk. Fort Collins population. This section uses a variety of available data to assess the range and types of at‐risk children in Fort Collins. The data are summarized with estimates of the at‐risk youth population in the Youth and Education graphic. Youth with economic challenges. Youth who live in families facing economic challenges can be identified through data on families living below the poverty level, children living in single parent households who are also poor, and children enrolled and/or eligible for free and reduced lunches and child cares subsidies. Living in poverty. The 2010 ACS reported 1,881 young children (under age 5) and another 1,825 children ages 5 to 17 living in poverty in Fort Collins—a total of 3,700 children or 13 percent of all children. The 2012 ACS reported a slightly higher number of total children living in poverty (3,939) but about the same proportion, 14 percent. Yet there is a big difference between the 2010 and 2012 estimates in age distribution: In 2012, far less young children lived in poverty (1,243 young children or 14%, compared with 1,881 and 23% in 2010). Figure V‐1 shows the level and trends in child poverty in Fort Collins. The data suggest that the increase in poverty was initially due to babies born into families living in poverty in the middle part of the last decade, who are now reflected in the 5 to 17 age range of child poverty numbers and rate. Figure V‐1. Child Poverty Trends, Fort Collins, 2000, 2010, and 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and BBC Research & Consulting. Age Range < 5 years 830 12% 1,881 23% 1,243 14% 1,051 413 5‐17 years 1,386 8% 1,825 9% 2,696 16% 439 1,310 Total children 2,216 9% 3,706 13% 3,939 14% 1,490 1,723 2000‐ 2010 change 2000‐ 2012 change # of Children Below Poverty % of All Children 2000 # of Children Below Poverty % of All Children 2010 # of Children Below Poverty % of All Children 2012 Packet Pg. 287 BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 3 Children in single parent households. Although living in single parent home, per se, isn’t a contributor to risk status, single parent households—especially those that are female‐headed— have disproportionately high poverty rates. The 2012 ACS estimates that 12 percent of the City’s families are single parents with children, a total of 3,984 single‐parent families. This is up from 7 percent in 2012. The vast majority of these households (2,982 or 75%) were female‐headed, with the balance male‐headed (1,002 or 25%). Of these households, 1,355 or 34 percent were living in poverty in Fort Collins. This compares to just 8 percent of married couple households with children. Poverty rates were much higher for female‐ (36%) than male‐headed (28%) households. Analysis conducted for the recent Fort Collins’ Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice (AI) found just one block group in the City with a concentration of female single parents. This block group, located on the northern border of Fort Collins just west of 287, is also an area of concentrated poverty and thus, likely an indication of an area with at‐risk youth. Children enrolled in Free and Reduced Lunch program. According to Compass of Larimer County, 27,121 children in the Poudre School District (PSD) were enrolled in the FRL program during the 2012‐13 school year. This represented 29 percent of all children in the district. The number of students enrolled in the program has steadily increased during the past 10 years, rising by 2,840, or 12 percent, since the 2003‐04 school year. The largest increase occurred in 2009, when 1,200 more children enrolled in the program; this was followed by a slight decline the following year. These trends are shown in Figure V‐2. Packet Pg. 288 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 4 Figure V‐2. Free and Reduced Lunch Enrollment and Eligibility, Poudre School District, 2003‐04 to 2012‐13 Source: Larimer County Compass, http://www.larimer.org/compass/schooll unch_ec_inc.htm. Even with these increases, FRL enrollment in PSD is lower than other districts in the county (37% of children for Thompson and 35% for Park) and the state (42%). Figure V‐3 shows the location of schools by FRL enrollment overlaid with family poverty. Schools with the highest FRL enrollment are located in the northeast portion of the City, some just beyond City boundaries. Some, but not all of these schools, have low academic proficiency rates (discussed below in the education section)—yet it does not appear that FRL and low performance are highly correlated. Packet Pg. 289 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 5 Figure V‐3. Children Enrolled in Free and Reduced Lunch Program and Poverty Concentrations, 2010 and 2012‐13 Source: 2010 Census, Larimer County Compass, BBC Research & Consulting. Children receiving child care subsidies. The number of families enrolled and/or eligible in the State of Colorado Child Care Assistance Program (CCAP), administered in Larimer County by the Department of Human Services, is another indicator of young children whose families have limited resources. The program subsidizes child care cost for qualifying families who are working, searching for a job (30 days/year) or teen parents enrolled in school or a job training program. The current CCAP qualifying income limit for a family of four is $34,572—roughly in between the federal poverty level and the upper bound for the FRL program. Like the FRL, qualifying income limits are tied to the poverty threshold. According to Larimer County, the CCAP program currently provides subsidized care to 1,032 children in Larimer County—about 80 percent of the number of young children living in poverty in Fort Collins during 2012. This is down from a decade high of 1,480 children in 2004. It is important to note that trends in the use of the CCAP are not always suggestive of changing demand for need because they incorporate changes in eligibility thresholds (e.g., the eligibility threshold varied from between 140% and 185% of the poverty level in the past decade). The Colorado Preschool Program (CPP) is a state program that subsidizes early childhood education services, including those delivered through public schools and Head Start. The Packet Pg. 290 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 6 program focuses on children who have identified risk factors that could impair their success in school. In 2012, 370 children in PSD received assistance. The number of children who receive subsidies is determined through the state’s school finance formula. Children with educational challenges. This section discusses the educational data available to identify at‐risk students in Fort Collins, including drop‐out rates, suspension/expulsion statistics and low performance on standardized tests. Dropped out of school. The Colorado Department of Education’s (CDE) statistics report that 191 7th ‐12th graders in PSD dropped out of school during the 2011‐12 school year, for a drop‐out rate of 1.4 percent. According to Compass, drop‐out rates have declined substantially since the 2006‐ 07 and 2007‐08 years, when there were 2.5 and 2.6 percent, respectively. The 2011‐12 drop‐out rate was slightly higher for the Thompson School District (1.8%) and about the same for Park (1.5%). Figure V‐4 shows drop‐out rates by gender and race/ethnicity. Although still mostly low, the drop‐out rates are highest for African American females and American Indian/Alaskan Native and Hispanic females and males. Figure V‐4. School Drop Out Rates by Gender and Student Race or Ethnicity, Poudre School District, 2011‐12 School Year Source: Colorado Department of Education. Suspended or expelled. CDE also tracks school suspensions and expulsions by district. During the 2012‐13 school year, PSD had 398 classroom suspensions, 1,258 in‐school suspensions, 1,408 out‐of‐school suspensions and 27 expulsions. Ninety children were referred to law enforcement. The unduplicated count of actions was 1,498 and the total number was 4,666, which means that, on average, each child had three infractions which led to a suspension or expulsion. Low performance. Data from state standardized tests report the numbers and proportions of children who have unsatisfactory knowledge of a subject area or are partially, but not fully, proficient. In PSD, the number of students with unsatisfactory performance in 2013 ranged from 1,161 (writing) to 3,290 (mathematics). Students scoring partially proficient ranged from 4,352 (reading) to 9,314 (writing). The portion of this section discussing education provides more detail on school performance, particularly in relation to poverty concentrations. Female Male Total 90 101 1.4 % 1.5 % African American 3 1 3.5 % 0.9 % American Indian/Alaskan Native 1 3 2.5 % 7.3 % Asian 1 4 0.5 % 1.9 % Hispanic/Latino 36 42 3.4 % 3.9 % Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 0 0 0 % 0 % White 46 47 0.9 % 0.9 % Two or More Races 3 4 1.5 % 1.9 % Female Male # of Children Dropping Out % of All Children Packet Pg. 291 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 7 Youth with challenges to stability. Household stability—particularly as it relates to consistency in schools—has been shown to be an important factor in educational achievement. In a recent brief, the Center for Housing Policy reports on the two different types of moves that research has shown affect a children’s education: residential mobility (moving to a new house, with or without changing schools) and school mobility (changing schools with or without changing residences).2 Research has consistently demonstrated that children who change schools often or at critical points in their education experience (kindergarten and high school) show declines in educational achievement.3 Research has shown that schools also suffer from children experiencing “hyper‐mobility” due to the diversion of school and teacher resources. This section discusses Fort Collins youth who are experiencing instability as measured by homelessness, educational statistics on mobility, and those living with someone other than their parent. Homeless youth. Under the McKinney‐Vento Act, school districts are required to report the number of students age 21 and younger who “lack a fixed, regular and adequate nighttime residence.” Students meeting this definition are considered homeless. In the 2010‐2011 school year, PSD reported 1,021 homeless students. Figure V‐5 demonstrates that the number of homeless students in PSD schools has increased significantly in recent years. The number of homeless youth reported by PSD greatly exceeds the number of homeless youth observed in the Fort Collins Point‐in‐Time Homeless Count. In that study, 49 persons under the age of 18 were counted as homeless—33 found in emergency shelters, 12 in transitional housing and four unsheltered. This suggests that many of the homeless youth observed by PSD may be “couch surfing,” temporarily staying with relatives, or “doubling up” with other families. Figure V‐5. Number of Homeless Students Enrolled in Poudre School District, 2010‐2011 School Year Source: http://www.psdschools.org/student‐support/federal‐ programs/homeless‐students. Youth changing schools. During the 2011‐12 school year, 4,808 students moved into or out of PSD, for an overall student mobility rate of 16.6 percent. This is much lower than the mobility 2 As discussed in the brief, availability of affordable housing may increase student stability. 3 http://www.nhc.org/media/files/Insights_HousingAndEducationBrief.pdf Packet Pg. 292 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 8 rate for the state of 24.7 percent. Approximately 668 students moved in and out of the district more than once, as indicated by the duplicated number of moves of 5,476.4 The student mobility rate differed by race and ethnicity, with African American students having the highest mobility rate and White and Hispanic students with the highest number of more than one move, as shown in Figure V‐6. Figure V‐6. School Mobility by Student Race or Ethnicity, Poudre School District, 2011‐12 School Year Source: Colorado Department of Education. Grandparents caring for children. The 2010 Census reported that 224 children in Fort Collins had grandparents as their primary caregivers.5 These children live with their grandparents without a parent present and represent about 1 percent of all children in Fort Collins. Another 567 children, or 2 percent of all children, live with their grandparents with a parent present. The City’s Grand Families organization estimates the number of grandparents caring for their grandchildren at a much higher 3,000. This statistic is not always an indicator of being at‐risk, but may suggest prior parental difficulty or trauma, which is the reason that the children are not being cared for by their parents. The Colorado Department of Health reports that in 2010, just 0.5 percent of children in the county experienced maltreatment—about 144 children if applied to Fort Collins’ child population.6 Children who experience neglect or abuse. Statewide, in 2012, 5,064 children were served by child advocacy centers that assist abused children. According to the National Children’s Alliance, the umbrella organization for child advocacy centers, 67 percent of children were female; 33 percent were male. 4 5,476 duplicated moves – 4,808 unduplicated moves = 668. 5 About 900 grandparents have grandchildren living in their homes, but most have parents present. 6 P:\13047 Fort Collins Sustainability\Health‐Wellness\Larimer County Health Indicators from CDPHE.xlsx. Total 4,808 17 % 5,476 668 African American 107 26 % 128 21 American Indian/Alaskan Native 38 23 % 50 12 Asian 217 22 % 254 37 Hispanic/Latino 996 20 % 1,199 203 Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 6 17 % 6 0 White 3,269 15 % 3,637 368 Two or More Races 175 19 % 202 27 # of Children Moving In/Out of PSD % of All Children # of Moves # of Children with More than One Move Packet Pg. 293 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 9 The number of alleged offenders (3,693) was less than the number of children abused, indicating that offenders often victimized more than one child. Offenders were most likely to be an “other known person” or relative (both 26% of cases), followed by a parent (22%). The most common type of abuse was sexual (73% of all abuse types). Children who are minorities were disproportionately victims of abuse. The child advocacy center in Larimer County serves 300 children annually—about 1 percent of all children in the county. Childsafe—a nonprofit in Larimer County that provides therapy to children who have been victims of sexual abuse—serves about 600 victims annually, 68 percent of whom reside in Fort Collins. The organization accepts private health insurance and Victim Compensation. A sliding fee scale based on income is used. Teen pregnancies. Health care statistics on sexual activity can also be used to indicate at‐risk status among older youth. Teens that become pregnant are much more likely to drop out of high school and face long‐term educational and employment challenges. Teen births in Larimer County have been declining since 2009, as has the teen fertility rate. Larimer County’s 2012 teen fertility rate, 8.8 per 1,000 women ages 15 to 17, is lower than Colorado’s rate of 11.9. Figure V‐7. Teen Births and Fertility Rate, Larimer County, 2008‐2012 Source: Colorado Department of Health Teens with mental health challenges. According to the Institute on Mental Health data, mental illness among adolescents is much higher, for both serious mental illnesses and any mental illness. According to the data, as many as 1,500 adolescents have a serious mental illness (8% of adolescents) and 8,000 have any type of mental illness (43%). The Alliance for Suicide Prevention in Fort Collins reports that, during 2012, 273 adolescents referred friends to the organization for help or sought help themselves for mental illnesses that were severe enough to warrant concerns about suicide. Resources. This section provides an overview of the organizations in Fort Collins which assist at‐risk youth and/or families with children at risk. This discussion is not meant to be all inclusive of the City’s program; instead, it highlights organizations which specialize in working with at‐ risk youth. These are often the “go to” or frontline organizations that youth and families contact or are referred to when in need. Year 2008 71 12.9 21.6 2009 72 13.2 20.1 2010 66 12.3 17.4 2011 53 9.9 14.0 2012 47 8.8 11.9 # of Births to Teens, Larimer County Colorado Teens ages 15 to 17 Teen Fertility Rate (per 1,000) Larimer County Packet Pg. 294 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 10 CASA and Harmony House. CASA, or Court Appointed Special Advocates, provides advocacy for children who have been abused and neglected as their cases move through the court process. CASA volunteers are appointed by a juvenile judge. CASA of Larimer County is part of a national network of CASA organizations. According to CASA, the majority of their clients are low income, with 50‐60 percent earning less than 30 percent of the area median income (AMI). Mental illness and substance abuse is common. During 2012, CASA served 228 children and Harmony House served 585 children. The Harmony House, a program of CASA, is a visitation center that allows supervised visits of family members and children. Some, but not all, of these meetings are court‐ordered. The house also operates as a safe exchange site for families/guardians. Child Advocacy Center. The Child Advocacy Center (CAC) works with children who have been abused to provide them and their non‐offending family members access to needed supports and services. CAC is part of the National Children’s Alliance. The organization provides “forensic interviews” of children after allegations of abuse to assist the county human services department and law enforcement in child abuse investigations. Non‐offending parents/caregivers receive counseling and support referrals. The organization also conducts education and outreach to teach children how not to become vulnerable in situations that could lead to more sexual abuse. CAC serves approximately 300 children per year. All income levels are served. The organization notes that children are 46 times more likely to be abused if they are below the poverty line. Mental illness and domestic violence are also common. Childsafe. Childsafe assists children who have experienced sexual abuse. Services provided include therapy (group, individual, family), parenting classes, and referral to supplemental programs. Bilingual services are available. The organization was founded initially to provide services to group of teens who were being treated through individual therapists and has expanded to serve more than 600 children annually. The organization’s Child Sexual Abuse Treatment program was, in the organization’s words, “developed to repair the damage done to young victims and their families.” The outpatient program serves victims ages 2 to 18 in a combination of individual, group, and family therapy. Most clients have very low incomes. Crossroads Safehouse. The Safehouse, which is discussed in more depth in the section on Victims of Domestic Violence, offers a youth program that helps children and teens increase self‐ esteem, develop and practice coping and communication skills, and learn alternatives to aggressive behaviors. Programs offered to children in the broader community include: 1) Youth Advocacy, which provides therapy to children and teens affected by domestic violence (one‐on‐one sessions as well as meeting with family members); 2) The Elementary Education program to help 4th and 5th grade PSD students cultivate healthy relationships as part of their character development; and 3) The Teen Dating Violence Institute, which is a peer‐education approach to teaching young people about dating violence (presented by high school seniors to PSD middle and high school students). Packet Pg. 295 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 11 LaFamilia/Family Center. This organization’s mission is to provide affordable, accessible, high quality early childhood education (ECE) and family strengthening services. These services are delivered through the organization’s licensed ECE program; home visitations; youth programs; health and wellness initiatives; and adult education/ESL/computer services. Larimer County Workforce Center. The Workforce Center offers youth services, has a website dedicated to programs for youth and maintains a Facebook presence to connect with youth looking for job training and employment. The YouthLINK Fast Track Scholarship and Employment Program for High School Seniors helps seniors transition from high school to gainful employment or continuing education through job search assistance, internships and scholarships. Seniors must be eligible to work in the U.S., live in a low income household or have a disability or be living in foster care and have an active interest in pursuing employment following graduation. Realities for Children. This nonprofit provides emergency services, organizational support, community awareness and youth activities to abused and neglected children in Larimer County. Emergency funding is available on a case‐by‐case basis for children who have no other resources to meet their needs. The goal of the youth activities program is to enable children to “enjoy being a child,” as well as to provide creative outlets to work through the difficulties experienced by the children in the program. The Center for Family Outreach. The Center for Family Outreach serves youth and families struggling with substance abuse, disruptive or high‐risk behaviors, and/or family conflict. The organization offers a 90‐day voluntary program to assist youth and families with substance abuse challenges and/or disruptive or high‐risk behaviors. Services offered include counseling and therapy, FED and academic tutoring, art enrichment, community service, and substance abuse monitoring. Parent classes to strengthen parenting skills are also offered. The Center also runs a diversion program and more intense intervention programs for teens who have received a legal summons. The Matthews House. The Matthews House is a youth empowerment program that assists youth between the ages of 16 and 21 with life skills. Many of the youth assisted by the organization have been part of the human resources, foster care, or juvenile/justice system, live below the poverty level, and have experienced abuse; some are homeless. Youth are referred to the Matthews House by county human services, the school district, the justice system, and other nonprofits that work with at‐risk youth. The Matthews House reports a very high success rate for juvenile offenders who are referred to them: 92 percent of the youth who have completed their program have not re‐offended. The programs at the Matthews House have also been shown to reduce the number of youth receiving residential treatment and, instead, living independently with supportive services. The Matthews House programs assist youth in finding safe and affordable housing; obtaining needed physical and mental health care; finding employment or receiving job training; pursuing their education; and development independent living and social skills. Touchstone Health—Namaqua Center. The Namaqua Center within Touchstone Health, a mental health provider, assists children who have experienced trauma, have severe behavioral Packet Pg. 296 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 12 challenges, and/or have a diagnosed emotional disturbance. Programs include a Family Support Program for families with children who are severally behaviorally challenged; support to grandfamilies in the form of classes, networking and family events; Wondercamp, a skill building program for children with severe emotional disturbances who need structure and support during school holidays; a mentor program for court‐appointed family clients; and respite care for families. Turning Point. The Turning Point Center for Youth and Family Development provides therapeutic services to youth and families through individual therapy sessions or in a residential treatment facility. The organization utilizes “evidence based practices”—those for which research has proven their effectiveness—in its programs. Services include therapeutic coaching; therapy; a 45‐day substance abuse recovery program; crisis intervention; a DUI/DWAI class; and special community courses (e.g., CPR). Children are referred to their program by schools, the Larimer County Department of Human Services, and similar state departments. Health insurance covers many of the services provided by Turning Point; the organization also accepts Medicaid. Turning Point’s education programs include schooling alternatives for at‐risk and expelled students. The goal of the educational programs is to prepare youth for return to the public school system or a post‐secondary education. Career exploration—helping students find a career path that will motivate them to stay in school and continue on to secondary education—is a key focus. Packet Pg. 297 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 13 Education A quality and supportive learning environment is not only important to at‐risk youth. A robust body of research shows that quality education, including early learning, leads to better long‐term outcomes for all children. The vast majority of Larimer County children attend public school (92%).7 And for those who graduate from high school, economic outcomes are much better than for those who do not. As shown in Figure V‐8, Fort Collins’ residents with a high school degree have much lower poverty rates than those who do not. As to be expected, poverty rates are lowest for those who have graduated from college. Figure V‐8. Poverty Rate for the Population 25+ Years, by Educational Attainment Level, 2012 Source: American Community Survey, 2012. Therefore, delivery of a quality public education program is a very important component of the community’s sustainability. This section provides an overview of the educational environment in Fort Collins, beginning with ECE, a critical component in the system. Early Childhood Education (ECE). How to improve educational outcomes for very low income children is a subject of much research and debate and the answer remains unclear, except for the impact of ECE programs. A growing and robust body of research shows very strong outcomes of early childhood education programs, especially for disadvantaged youth. Some of the more convincing arguments for funding ECE programs are put forth by economists. The prominent economist James Heckman has found that the Perry Preschool program—a pilot ECE program in Michigan targeted to low income children—produced between $7 and $12 of “tangible benefit to the American economy” for every $1 invested.8 Studies of similar programs—the Abecedarian Project in North Carolina and the Child‐Parent Center program in Chicago—have found very large, positive returns for taxpayers. Benefits across programs included increased tax revenue from program participants (who are more likely to attain full employment), reduced costs to the criminal justice system, reduced costs to school systems for special programs, and reduced welfare costs. For example, a startling finding 7About 7 percent attend independent (private) schools, .8 percent are home schooled and .4 percent take classes online, according to Larimer County Compass. 8 Paul Tough, “How Children Succeed: Grit, Curiosity, and the Hidden Power of Character,” Mariner Press, 2012. Packet Pg. 298 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 14 from the Chicago program was a 70 percent reduction in the risk that a child would be arrested for violent crime in their teens for those participating in the program.9 Similarly, Jack Shonkoff of Harvard argues that an effective program of support for parents of low income children while their kids are young would be much less expensive than our current approach of paying for remedial education and job training.10 Similarly, Gabriella Conti and James Heckman state in a recent paper, The Economics of Child Well‐Being, that “prevention is more cost effective than remediation…most adolescent and adult remediation programs are ineffective and have much lower returns than early childhood programs that prevent problems before they occur.”11 Demand. The 2012 ACS reports that there are 28,450 children in Fort Collins. One‐third, or 8,900 children, are under the age of 5 years and an estimated 3,500 are ages 3 and 4—preschool‐aged. The Census estimates that 2,700 children in the City are enrolled in a preschool program. This represents 77 percent of all preschool‐aged children, an impressive proportion.12 The vast majority of these children (82%) attend a private preschool program, leaving about 500 children enrolled in public early learning programs. It is unclear if the 23 percent of preschool‐aged children in the City are not enrolled in a formal program because of costs, wait lists, or parental preferences and if these children would take advantage of preschool programs if the programs they desired were available. The Census estimates that 1,284 children under the age of 12 live in households with parents who work full time and earn less than 50 percent of the AMI. These families likely need child care. K‐12 Education As mentioned above, most children in Fort Collins attend public school. Many of the public schools in the City are strong, based on standardized reading and math proficiency test scores. In a handful of schools, proficiency rates are quite low. Specifically, a little more than half (56%) of public schools in the City have 2013 4th grade student reading proficiency rates exceeding PSD’s overall (79%). In three schools, 4th grade reading proficiency rates are less than 50 percent. Reading proficiency rates in the nine middle schools located in the City are much better in 7th grade, with just three reporting rates below PSD’s overall rate (two of these exceed 70%; one is 53%). Four of the nine high schools in the City have 10th grade reading proficiency rates higher than 79 percent; two have rates that barely exceed 50 percent. High school math proficiency scores show a wide variance. For example, just one high school in the City has math proficiency above 70 percent (and this school is a high performer at nearly 9 The Minneapolis Federal Reserve has dedicated an entire webpage to the topic: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/earlychild/ 10 Ibid. 11 National Bureau of Economic Research, working paper 18466. 12 Census data suggest Denver’s preschool enrollment, by comparison, is about 70 percent. Packet Pg. 299 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 15 97% proficiency). In some high schools, proficiency rates are in the single digits and most are below 50 percent. Beginning with middle school, math proficiency rates begin to lag reading proficiency for many schools: For example, the median 10th grade math proficiency score for Fort Collins high schools is just 41 percent, compared to a median reading score of 78 percent. Figure V‐9 shows the number of 3rd through 10th grade students in PSD (not just Fort Collins) who scored unsatisfactory or partially proficient on the 2013 state standardized tests for math, reading and writing. Based on standardized test scores, the numbers of students who struggle academically total 9,800 in math, 6,200 in reading, and 10,500 in writing. Figure V‐9. Number of 3 rd ‐10 th Grade PSD Students Scoring Unsatisfactory or Partially Proficient on State Standardized Testing, 2013 Source: Colorado Department of Education. Figures V‐10 through V‐15 show reading and math proficiency rates by school overlaid on family poverty rates. As the maps demonstrate, some, but not all, of the lower performing schools are located in neighborhoods with higher rates of poverty. Packet Pg. 300 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 16 Figure V‐10. Percent 4 th Graders Scoring Proficient and Advanced in Math and Poverty Concentrations, 2010 and 2013 Source: 2010 Census, Colorado Department of Education. Packet Pg. 301 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 17 Figure V‐11. Percent 4 th Graders Scoring Proficient and Advanced in Reading and Poverty Concentrations, 2010 and 2013 Source: 2010 Census, Colorado Department of Education. Packet Pg. 302 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 18 Figure V‐12. Percent 7 th Graders Scoring Proficient and Advanced in Math and Poverty Concentrations, 2010 and 2013 Source: 2010 Census, Colorado Department of Education. Packet Pg. 303 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 19 Figure V‐13. Percent 7 th Graders Scoring Proficient and Advanced in Reading and Poverty Concentrations, 2010 and 2013 Source: 2010 Census, Colorado Department of Education. Packet Pg. 304 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 20 Figure V‐14. Percent 10 th Graders Scoring Proficient and Advanced in Math and Poverty Concentrations, 2010 and 2013 Source: 2010 Census, Colorado Department of Education. Packet Pg. 305 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 21 Figure V‐15. Percent 10 th Graders Scoring Proficient and Advanced in Reading and Poverty Concentrations, 2010 and 2013 Source: 2010 Census, Colorado Department of Education. Packet Pg. 306 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 22 Educational Supports Child care and ECE subsidies. Child Care Assistance Program (CCAP). As discussed in the at‐risk section above, the CCAP is a child care assistance program administered through the Larimer County Department of Human Services and funded by the state. According to Larimer County Human Services, the CCAP program currently serves 1,032 children in Larimer County during 2012—about 80 percent of the number of young children living in poverty in Fort Collins during 2012. Because of high demand for the program, enrollment was stopped in March 2010 and the wait list capped in December 2011. Future budget cuts will require that the program lower eligibility from 150 percent of the poverty level to 130 percent, meaning that families earning more than 130 percent of the poverty level will no longer quality. The City of Fort Collins Consolidated Plan estimated that $1.3 million of supplemental funding is needed to support the program. Colorado Preschool Program (CPP). CPP is another state program that subsidies early childhood education services (v. child care, the focus of CCAP), including those delivered through public schools and Head Start. The program focuses on children who have identified risk factors that could impair their success in school. In 2012, 370 children in PSD received assistance. The number of children who receive subsidies is determined through the state’s school finance formula. Early Childhood Council of Larimer County (ECCLC). The ECCLC is one of 30 early childhood councils that work to improve early learning and care services for Colorado children and families. This includes improving availability and quality of early care and education; health care; parenting; and social and emotional health of families and children. The ECCLC has recently conducted a number of studies demonstrating need for services in the county, including a decline in the number of centers that accept CCAP payments (from almost 300 in 2007 to 200 in 2012) and a drop in the centers who offer temporary/emergency care, 24 hour care, evening care, and care for children on rotating schedules. Just 12 centers are open before 6 a.m.; 24 are open until 10 p.m.; and nine offer care 24 hours/day. The centers that are open late have limited acceptance of CCAP. Fewer than 20 centers are open on weekends. The vast majority of centers have traditional hours—opening at 7:30 a.m. and closing at 5:30 p.m.— which do not accommodate families who work alternative schedules or are in service occupations. LaFamilia/Family Center. This organization, also discussed in the at‐risk youth section, provides child care for infants, toddlers, and preschoolers. The child care provider is unique in that it offers a sliding scale tuition, is bilingual, and offers parent support services. Capacity at the center is 65, with about 70 percent of children participating in the sliding scale tuition program. At the time this report was being repaired, about 120 families were on the wait list for care. In September 2013, LaFamilia conducted a survey of their families to determine the greatest challenges they currently face, understand which resources they value most at the Center and identify what else they would like offered. The two top challenges reported were lack of time Packet Pg. 307 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 23 management and not knowing or having the ability to learn English. The most utilized program at the Center is the parenting support program. Teaching Tree. The Teaching Tree Childhood Early Learning Center provides child care, early leaning and school readiness for children 6 weeks to 8 years old. Teaching Tree serves about 185 children in a year, and has the capacity to serve 101 at any time. As of November 2013, there were 103 children on the wait list for care; the majority were young children (54 children were on the wait list for spots serving infants, 6 weeks to 1 year old). About 40 percent of their families are low income. Teaching tree serves an unlimited number of CCAP families and offers sliding fees for families who don’t quality for CCAP. Teaching Tree reports high demand for “immediate” or “emergency” care—e.g., when a parent gets a job and needs care in few days. Often low income parents, these families cannot afford to keep their children in care while job hunting. The organization would like to be able to offer an “emergency” rotating spots for 1‐2 children in each class, which would require independent funding. PSD ECE. Fort Collins has ECE and parental support programs available to the public through elementary schools in PSD. These range from Early Head Start qualifying families (serving children birth to age 3) to subsidized preschool programs. Twenty‐one schools in PSD offer early learning programs; six schools do not. These programs are available citywide, except for three schools just west of CSU, which are adjacent to neighborhoods with relatively high family poverty rates. ECE location can be a barrier to access, especially for families who rely on public transit. Figure V‐16 shows the location of PSD ECE programs overlaid with residents who are Hispanic. Locations overlaid with families living in poverty appear in Figure V‐17. This map suggests a need for early learning programs in closer proximity to areas of high poverty. Packet Pg. 308 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 24 Figure V‐16. ECE Program and Before and After School Enrichment (BASE) Program Locations with Hispanic Concentrations, 2010 and 2012‐13 Source: 2010 Census, Colorado Department of Education. Packet Pg. 309 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 25 Figure V‐17. ECE Program and Before and After School Enrichment (BASE) Program Locations with Poverty Concentrations, 2010 and 2012‐13 Source: 2010 Census, Colorado Department of Education. Before and afterschool programs. In Fort Collins, two organizations provide much of the before and after school care serving low income children: B.A.S.E. and the Boys & Girls Club. Before and After School Enrichment Camp (B.A.S.E.). B.A.S.E. provides before and after school care, summer camps, and out of school care. The program includes homework assistance, arts and crafts, sports, science, and music activities. Staff are expected to coordinate with their host school to reinforce classroom learning. The organization mainly serves Fort Collins, although children from surrounding areas also participate in the program. B.A.S.E. has programs in 32 elementary schools in the Fort Collins area. The City serves about 3,000 children ages 3 through 14. The majority of client‐families in summer months are low income, as these families have the fewest resources for care during the summer (market rate camps are cost prohibitive). During the school year, about one‐third of families are low income. Families pay tuition on a sliding scale program that varies with income levels; these families are assisted through some federal assistance and donations. The organization aims to help all children who need the program. B.A.S.E. has a goal to take any children during the school year and summer who need care. Packet Pg. 310 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION V, PAGE 26 As shown in Figure V‐17 above, B.A.S.E. is available in most of the PSD schools in Fort Collins except for those west of CSU (areas of higher poverty) and in South Fort Collins. Boys & Girls Club. The Boys & Girls Club in Larimer County has three dedicated clubhouses open daily afterschool until 7 p.m. and during the summer from 7:30 a.m. to 6 p.m. The Club has three main goals for the children it serves: 1) Academic Success, 2) Making sure the children have good character and citizenship, and 3) Making sure the children lead a healthy lifestyle. Seventy percent of children served receive FRL; most of the children live below or are on the edge of poverty. The organization would like to have more resources to serve additional children who could benefit from their programs. Gaps. The gaps in services for at‐risk youth and education can be separated into two, broad categories: 1) Unmet demand, or the inability to provide services to all who need them; and 2) Gaps in delivery of quality services, or the inability to deliver the right amount or type of supports needed. This section discusses both. Unmet demand. Unmet demand is the gap between needs and resources that can be measured quantitatively. Unmet demand is evident in wait lists, extensive delays in accessing needed services, and residents who are unserved or unaware of services. The At‐Risk and Education Graphic attached to the end of this section summarizes the needs, resources and gaps in provision of services to at‐risk youth, as well as delivery of educational services, particularly to low income children—all of which are discussed above. This graphic represents the unmet demand for at‐risk youth and educational programming in Fort Collins. Service delivery. Service delivery means making sure that the right types and amount of services reach residents in need in a timely manner. Evaluating the delivery of services by the organizations that youth in Fort Collins was beyond the scope of this study. However, interviews with providers elicited information on gaps in service delivery and recommendations for improvement. These include the following: Youth and families cannot always access programs because of limited transit. For example, some children receive bussing to access the Boys & Girls Club through PSD, but others, who live in Fort Collins and don’t attend certain schools, do not have buses provided. New or expanded facilities and programs are needed to reduce unmet demand. Many service providers are limited in their current spaces and need to expand to reduce wait lists and/or serve more youth in need. For child care, “immediate” or “emergency” care is needed, especially for infants, for parents who find jobs without much notice. Low salaries for staff who work with at‐risk youth—combined with the challenges of the job—can cause high turnover, which can adversely affect at‐risk youth. Packet Pg. 311 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) SECTION VI. Diversity and Equity Packet Pg. 312 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 1 SECTION VI. Diversity and Equity This section discusses the sustainability of diversity and equity in the City by exploring a wide variety of indicators in the community, including those related to race/ethnicity, gender, religion, culture, and sexual orientation. It should be noted that this section is not all inclusive of all types of diversity and equity, but rather examines where discrimination can be the most common. Measures of Diversity and Equity Definition. The City’s Diversity Plan, which was first adopted in 1992, serves as a guide for the City’s efforts, goals, and actions in the area of diversity. In the plan, the City Council committed the City to the “eradication of prejudice and harmful discrimination against any person because of race, color, gender, age, religion, national origin, ancestry or disabilities. The City is also committed to the establishment of a community that fosters, promotes and enforces an environment of mutual respect for all people, regardless of individual differences.”1 Indicators of diversity can be difficult to find, other than racial and ethnic diversity, which is reported by the Census. This section discusses a variety of measures including the availability and accessibility of information in native tongues other than English; the availability and locations of different types of religious institutions; equitable provision of assisted housing; and the availability of resources to foster diversity and inclusiveness. Additionally, data from the Hate Crime Statistics Program includes annual statistics for hate crimes in the following categories: race, religion, sexual orientation, ethnicity, and disability. The hate crime data is compared to neighboring communities of similar size in Colorado. Racial and Ethnic Diversity The vast majority of Fort Collins residents identify their race as white (89%) and ethnicity as non‐Hispanic (90%), as shown below. The largest minority group in Fort Collins is persons of Hispanic descent at 10 percent of the City population. This compares to 11 percent for Larimer County and 21 percent for the state as a whole. Figures VI‐1 and VI‐2 present the race and ethnicity composition of the Fort Collins population in both 2000 and 2010. 1 City of Fort Collins Diversity Plan, Resolution Number 134. Packet Pg. 313 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 2 Figure VI‐1. Race and Ethnicity in Fort Collins, 2000 Source: 2000 Census. Between 2000 and 2010 the fastest growing minority groups were African Americans (43% increase), Asians (43% increase), those identifying as two or more races (47% increase), and Hispanics (40% increase). The number of non‐Hispanic white residents increased by 18 percent over the same period. Despite these high growth rates for many minority populations the City’s overall diversity changed little between 2000 and 2010, as shown in the graphics above. This is because the minority populations are very small in numbers relative to the City’s white population. Figure VI‐2. Race and Ethnicity in Fort Collins, 2010 Source: 2010 Census. Packet Pg. 314 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 3 Figure VI‐3 shows the racial and ethnic distribution of Fort Collins in 2000 and 2010 along with growth rates between 2000 and 2010. Figure VI‐3. Race and Ethnicity, City of Fort Collins, 2000 and 2010 Source: 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census. CSU attracts a student body from all over the U.S. and abroad, although its racial and ethnic diversity is similar to that of the City overall. Figure VI‐4 presents the racial and ethnic proportions of CSU students from 2010 to 2013. The data are not directly comparable to those in the above table, which considers ethnicity separate from race and does not classify international students (following the Census classification). Figure VI‐4. Total University Enrollment, by Race and Ethnicity, Fall 2010‐2013 Source: Colorado State University Institutional Research, Census Date Enrollment. Total population 118,652 143,986 21% Race American Indian and Alaska Native 715 1% 933 1% 30% Asian 2,948 2% 4,222 3% 43% Black or African American 1,213 1% 1,740 1% 43% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 143 0% 128 0% ‐10% White 106,347 90% 128,211 89% 21% Some other race 4,281 4% 4,339 3% 1% Two or more races 3,005 3% 4,413 3% 47% Ethnicity Hispanic or Latino 10,402 9% 14,572 10% 40% Non‐Hispanic White 101,384 85% 119,695 83% 18% 2000‐2010 Percent Number Percent Number Percent Change 2000 2010 Total Student Population 24,982 100% 25,167 100% 25,116 100% 25,501 100% Hispanic/Latino 1,881 8% 2,066 8% 2,254 9% 2,401 9% Non‐Hispanic/Latino Asian 481 2% 468 2% 468 2% 528 2% Black 457 2% 508 2% 515 2% 511 2% Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 46 0% 42 0% 36 0% 22 0% Multi‐Racial 656 3% 718 3% 808 3% 873 3% Native American 110 0% 108 0% 104 0% 96 0% White 20,311 81% 20,124 80% 19,705 78% 19,564 77% International 1,040 4% 1,133 5% 1,226 5% 1,506 6% Number Percent 2010 Number Percent 2011 Number Percent 2012 Number Percent 2013 Packet Pg. 315 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 4 Geographic concentrations. Figure VI‐5 shows geographic concentrations of the City’s largest minority group, persons of Hispanic descent. As the map demonstrates, the City has several concentrated areas in north Fort Collins.2 In some cases, minority concentrations are a reflection of preferences—e.g., minorities may choose to live where they have access to grocery stores or restaurants that cater to them. In other cases, minority populations are intentionally steered away or discouraged from living in certain areas. Housing prices can also heavily influence where minorities live. Figure VI‐5. Percent of Block Group Population that is Hispanic, City of Fort Collins, 2010 Source: 2010 U.S. Census. 2 For the purposes of the map, concentrations represent areas where persons of a particular race or ethnicity comprise a larger proportion of the population than the community overall. To align with HUD’s definition of “disproportionate need,” concentrations occur when the percentage of residents of a particular racial or ethnic group is 20 percentage points or more than the community‐wide average. Since the overall Hispanic population in Fort Collins is 10 percent, a block group that is at least 30 percent Hispanic contains a concentration. Packet Pg. 316 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 5 Economic Equity According to the 2006‐2010 ACS (the most recent income data available by race/ethnicity), non‐ Hispanic whites have the highest median household income ($52,055). One‐third of both Asian and Hispanic households earn less than $25,000 per year, as shown in Figure VI‐6. Figure VI‐6. Household Income Distribution by Race/Ethnicity, City of Fort Collins, 2006‐2010 Source: ACS 2006‐2010 5‐year estimate. Percent of residents living in poverty. In 2010, nearly 25,000 Fort Collins residents were living in poverty; this had risen to more than 27,000 to 2012. Poverty rates were highest for African American residents (38%), followed by residents of some other race (34%) and Hispanic residents (27%). Figure VI‐7. Poverty by Race/Ethnicity, City of Fort Collins, 2006‐ 2010 Source: ACS 2006‐2010 5‐year estimate. Less than $25,000 25% 31% 33% 33% $25,000 to $34,999 10% 7% 9% 14% $35,000 to $49,999 13% 21% 9% 19% $50,000 to $74,999 17% 6% 11% 18% $75,000 to $99,999 12% 12% 8% 7% $100,000 to $149,999 14% 17% 16% 4% $150,000 or more 8% 6% 13% 4% Median Household Income $52,055 $44,482 $45,104 $35,989 Non‐ Hispanic White Black or African American Asian Hispanic or Latino Total Population 133,374 23,960 18% Race American Indian and Alaska Native 938 120 13% Asian 3,948 823 21% Black or African American 1,379 526 38% White 119,266 20,313 17% Some other race 3,474 1,185 34% Two or more races 4,282 937 22% Ethnicity Hispanic or Latino origin 13,109 3,546 27% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 111,425 18,495 17% Total Below Poverty Percent Below Poverty Packet Pg. 317 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 6 Language Diversity As shown in Figure VI‐8, 9.5% of the City’s residents speak languages other than English in the home. The most prevalent language other than English is Spanish with 5 percent of the population speaking it at home. Speakers of other Indo‐European, Asian and Pacific Island, and other languages account for 4 percent of the City’s population. Figure VI‐8. Language spoken at home, City of Fort Collins, 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 ACS. Figure VI‐8 also presents data on the proportion of non‐English speakers that speak English less than “very well.” This smaller subset of the population represents 2 percent of the City, more than half of which are Spanish speakers. This group represents the portion of the population that is most isolated from services when resources are not available in their native tongue. As many as 3,000 Fort Collins residents may have challenges accessing services due to their limited English‐speaking ability. City resources available in languages other than English. A cursory review of information available in languages other than English found resources for many essential services such as public education and health care. City and county services. The City of Fort Collins’ website can be translated into several different languages, from Afrikaans to Yiddish, powered by Google Translate through a drop down selection menu on the top left of every web page. Larimer County’s website is available in Spanish as well as English through the use of Google’s free language tools. Poudre School District. The Poudre School District (PSD), along with many individual schools in the district, offers access to its website in Spanish, as well as several information resources. For example, Early Childhood Transition Services, a division of the Early Childhood Program, which helps parents transition their children into kindergarten, offers on their webpage many resources in both English and Spanish, such as “Parent Tip Sheets” and the Transition to Kindergarten Handbook.3 3 http://center.serve.org/TT/fp_tips.html. Total Population 5 years and over 139,722 Speak only English 126,387 90.5% Speak a language other than English 13,335 9.5% 3,024 2.2% Spanish or Spanish Creole 7,211 5.2% 1,556 1.1% Other Indo‐European 2,595 1.9% 306 0.2% Asian and Pacific Island languages 2,654 1.9% 1,112 0.8% Other languages 875 0.6% 50 0.0% Percent Language Spoken at Home Total Speak English less than "very well" Total Percent Packet Pg. 318 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 7 PSD also offers translation services for students whose primary language is not English. Spanish and Arabic are the two most readily available translation services, although Mandarin Chinese, Vietnamese, and Korean translators are also available. The Newcomer Academy programs at Lincoln Middle School and Poudre Valley High School provide extensive support to English Language Learners (ELL).4 Health care services. Websites for the health care sector in Fort Collins tend to be available in English only, including those of Family Medicine Center, Touchstone Health Centers, and the Health District of Larimer County. Salud Family Health Centers’ website is available in both English and Spanish. Other information. The City Housing Authority website is only available in English. There are two community newspapers written in English, the Coloradoan and the Northern Colorado Business Report, but there are no Hispanic newspapers in Fort Collins. Religious Diversity Larimer County offers diverse opportunities to worship. There are 7.3 religious congregations per 10,000 people in Larimer County. Figure VI‐9 presents the distribution of religious congregations in Larimer County by religion. As shown, the greatest proportion of congregations is Evangelical Protestant (43% of congregations). Figure VI‐9. Religious Congregations in Larimer County Source: Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, Health Indicators for Larimer County. In Fort Collins, the existing religious organizations or places of worship mainly represent four major religions: Buddhism, Christianity, Islam, and Judaism. The vast majority of religious organizations are Christian, as shown in Figure VI‐10. Figure VI‐10. Religious Organizations in Fort Collins Source: Fort Collins Area Chamber of Commerce, FortNet—The Community Information Network, http://www.fortnet.org/FortNet/comm/rel.html. 4 http://www.psdschools.org/school/poudre‐high‐school. Evangelical Protestant 43% Other religions 27% Mainline Protestant 17% Roman Catholic 4% Latter‐day Saint (Mormon) 3% Jehovah's Witnesses 3% Jewish 2% Orthodox Christian 1% % of Congregations in Larimer County Packet Pg. 319 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 8 The map below displays the locations of religious places of worship in Fort Collins, with the three non‐majority religions located in the vicinity of CSU. Figure VI‐11. Religious Organizations in Fort Collins Source: Fort Collins Area Chamber of Commerce, Religious Organizations, and FortNet, The Community Information Network, http://www.fortnet.org/FortNet/comm/rel.html. Packet Pg. 320 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 9 Inclusivity, Exclusivity, Tolerance and Perception of the City’s Diversity Inclusiveness of sexual orientation. Members of the GLBT community can face challenges in finding acceptance and support in their city. Inclusiveness of sexual orientation is particularly important for youth: A study in Oregon high schools found a significant association between a having a positive social environment and lower rates of GLBT suicide attempts.5 Measures included in examining the social environment of a given county included, but were not limited to: Proportion of schools with gay‐straight alliances; Proportion of schools with anti‐bullying policies specifically protecting GLBT students; and Proportion of schools with antidiscrimination policies that included sexual orientation. One indicator of inclusiveness is the number of organized GLBT groups in a community, especially those in schools. Of the seven public high schools in PSD, three have registered Gay‐ Straight Alliances with the Colorado GSA Network. Those with GSA programs include Fort Collins High School, Rocky Mountain High School, and Poudre High School. Many high schools in the district have “Report a Bully” policies, but they do not include provisions specifically protecting GLBT students. Antidiscrimination policies were not available on individual school websites, although the PSD website does provide its policies and procedures about bullying prevention and education. The 2013‐14 Student Rights & Code of Conduct defines bullying as: “…Any written or oral expression, or physical or electronic act or gesture, or a pattern thereof, that is intended to coerce, intimidate or cause any physical, mental or emotional harm to any student. This includes but is not limited to such expression, act or gesture directed toward a student on the basis of that student’s race, color, religion, national origin, ancestry, sex, sexual orientation, disability or academic performance.”6 PSD requires all district employees to attend an hour‐long diversity training in order to familiarize themselves with diversity, equity, and the district’s non‐discrimination policy. Colorado State University has a Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer and Questioning Resource Center, which offers support and resources to the GLBT student population. The university also explicitly includes sexual orientation in its non‐discrimination policy. Maintenance of current programs supporting GLBT students and the development of such programs where they are lacking is essential in sustaining a positive and supportive environment for GLBT youth. Perception of the City to outsiders and residents. Online discussion groups and social media are frequently used to gauge social acceptance and inclusiveness of outsiders. A review of online blogs and discussions about diversity in Fort Collins was conducted for this study. The 5 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10323629. 6 2013‐14 Student Rights & Code of Conduct, District Policies and Regulations. A guide to Student Rights and the Code of Conduct for students in Poudre School District. http://www.psdschools.org/webfm/3874. Packet Pg. 321 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 10 general perception from bloggers is that although Fort Collins is a mostly white community with little diversity, it is also generally an inclusive and welcoming place to minorities. The following quotes are excerpts from public comments made on the online comment boards city‐data.com and Sperling’s Best Places: Moving to Fort Collins, how is racial diversity and safety? (4/7/13) I'm planning on moving to Fort Collins…I have no family connections in that region and I'm African American and female. I'm curious about race relations here towards African Americans in particular? I'm interested in how people treat others that are of different racial backgrounds. I would love my experience in Fort Collins to be amazing… “We've been in Fort Collins for 11 years. I lived in Detroit for 4 years, then San Francisco for 6, before moving here. The utter lack of diversity was a huge shocker for me. (I'm a white female, but I was rather used to being in the minority.) It's starting to change. I live in Old Town (north of campus) and I think the folks around here are very tolerant and welcoming. My kids attend Lincoln Middle School which is the most diverse middle school in town. (The largest population is hispanic, followed by white, then asian and black. And because they have the "newcomer" program, there are students from all over the world whose parents are here as CSU students.) Because our kids attend Lincoln, we have had some negative experiences in terms of racial profiling. ("You send your kids THERE?!!!" "Isn't that a dangerous school?" etc.) So I know there's racism in Fort Collins. It's often against the hispanic population. And it's not generally overt. I'd recommend living near campus (It doesn't have to be in Old Town.). I don't think Fort Collins is dangerous at all. But in terms of comfort, I think you'll probably find a more welcoming community closer to the school. That's not at all to say that other parts of town are definitively less welcoming, because they're not. I think it's just more likely you'll find folks around the fringes that simply aren't used to anything but their all white neighbors.” “I used to live in Fort Collins and still have friends there. The area is somewhat conservative and most likely the only discrimination or profiling you will experience there would be based on religious or political views. As for the activities you enjoy, plenty of that around the area, especially over by Horsetooth and Larimer Park..”7 Thread title: Ethnic diversity in Colorado? (2/7/07) From the stats I've been reading it seems that Colorado is mostly white with some areas having small Hispanic or Latino populations. My question is how are Asians treated there? Is there discrimination? Does it depend on the area? We are possibly relocating to Ft. Collins area and we are a multi‐ethnic family. Hubby & me are white and we have 3 adopted children who are Asian. How would we/they be received? “I wouldn't imagine you'd have any problems with racism in fort collins... Though there is definitely not much of an asian community here, if any at all. There seems to be a small middle eastern community, a small indian community, and a sizeable hispanic community 7 http://www.city‐data.com/forum/fort‐collins‐area/1835756‐moving‐fort‐collins‐how‐racial‐diversity.html#ixzz2jQnmAJ4d. Packet Pg. 322 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 11 though. This area is sometimes jokingly referred to by the locals as 'vanilla valley' because it's so white. The ethnically asian people I know in fort collins are generally very americanized, and as far as I know they're not subject to any particular prejudice. I would be shocked if your children were treated any differently to other children here by anyone. The only serious racism I've even heard of in this area are second‐hand stories…about a church in Laporte with some nazi‐like values, and a significant KKK congregation in Loveland. I have no way of verifying these things and they are just rumors as far as I know.”8 Thread title: What are race relations like in FC? Are people tolerant? (5/1/12) I'm African‐American and am looking at a career opportunity in FC, which may lead to a relocation for me and my family. Can someone tell me whether FC is a racially tolerant city? Is there a separate African‐American community or is the city integrated? Where would you find the most racially diverse schools? “Totally integrated. I do not see many African‐Americans but I do welcome you and I do wish to see more diversity in the city. I am a retired person and cannot address the schools.” “The schools closest to the university are likely to be the most diverse, as that is where many of the international students and faculty live with their families in university housing. The International Baccalaureate Program at Poudre High School is as ethnically diverse as any place in town and has the added benefit of being academically rigorous. There is also a "school of choice" program that allows you to apply to some schools outside of your neighborhood if they offer programs you're interested in IB, Core Knowledge, bilingual, etc.” “There isn't many African American people up here, But its not usually a problem. Fort Collins has lots of churches and stuff in it. People are normally friendly as far as I can tell.”9 Thread title: Do any Asians live here? I want to go to college here after I get out of the Marine Corps and was curious how rare is it to see an Asian walking around. I know there aren't many, and being from California, I'm used to diversity. Are they looked at differently, or treated differently than white people? Does anyone personally know any Asians in the area, or better yet, ARE Asian? (International students don't count) How much would I stick out? “I'm a CSU alum. The Asian population in Fort Collins is pretty low, but the town is laid back and tolerant. There's a student services center for Asian students and several student organizations. So it will be very easy to get connected to other Asians if you attend CSU.” “Asian here. People are definitely very tolerant along the Front Range, although if you are used to diversity and are seeking it, you won't find it here =)” “I am Asian (Thai to be exact) and I grew up here in Northern Colorado. 20 years ago, the chance of seeing another Asian minority was slim but with the growth of the front range and the work of the local universities, many of the exchange students have stayed after 8 http://www.city‐data.com/forum/colorado/43480‐ethnic‐diversity‐colorado‐denver‐fort‐collins.html#ixzz2jQhSsI7Z. 9 http://www.city‐data.com/forum/fort‐collins‐area/1564485‐what‐race‐relations‐like‐fc‐people.html#ixzz2jQp9MCeo. Packet Pg. 323 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 12 college allowing the asian population to grow. Being asian, I never felt out of place and even more so now, it is VERY tolerant here.”10 Comment title: Cohesive community (7/18/11) “I'm one of a bajillion non‐natives who adopted Fort Collins as home and never, ever felt dissed or snubbed by the natives... as if I could even figure out who is native and who isn't. Who cares, is a better response to all that. To the contrary, Ft. Collins welcomes visitors, students, and diversity of all sorts. This is a small city that has a center and a cohesive sense of community ‐ something so many places have lost in the sprawl of the second half of the last century, and something, I might add, we will all need again as the problems we have created in the world come home to roost and we have to again turn to each other for support and resources.”11 Hate crimes. In 1990, Congress enacted the Hate Crime Statistics Act requiring the Department of Justice to collect data on crimes which “manifest prejudice based on race, religion, sexual orientation, gender or gender identity, disability or ethnicity.” Local law enforcement agencies report these crimes to the Department of Justice and the data are publicly available on the FBI’s website.12 Once a local agency deems a crime a hate crime against a protected class designated by the Hate Crime Statistics Act, that crime is reported to the FBI and is included in the data. In 2011, the Fort Collins law enforcement agency submitted six hate crime incidents to the FBI. Nationally, law enforcement reported 2.18 hate crime incidents per 100,000 people, compared to 4.10 in Fort Collins.13 When compared to its neighboring communities, the rate of reported hate crime incidents in Fort Collins is lower than Greeley, but higher than Loveland and Boulder, as shown in Figure VI‐12. Figure VI‐12. Hate Crime Incidents per Capita, 2011 Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation, Hate Crime Statistics. Figure VI‐13 presents the motivation reported for hate crimes from 2007 to 2011 for Fort Collins. The majority of the hate crimes committed within that time frame were race related, 10 http://www.city‐data.com/forum/fort‐collins‐area/1754859‐do‐any‐asians‐live‐here‐fort.html#ixzz2jQsKWxYl. 11 http://www.bestplaces.net/backfence/viewcomment.aspx?id=AC592A6C‐4C27‐4A2C‐AF1D‐ 7C2C3826A45A&city=Fort_Collins_CO&p=50827425. 12 http://www.fbi.gov/about‐us/cjis/ucr/hate‐crime/2011/hate‐crime. 13 The FBI compares hate crime statistics across states by adjusting per 100,000 population. U.S. Total 286,010,550 6,222 2.18 Colorado 4,992,496 186 3.73 Fort Collins 146,494 6 4.10 Loveland 68,024 1 1.47 Greeley 94,507 10 10.58 Boulder 99,081 2 2.02 Total Number of Reported Incidents, per 100,000 People Total Number of Incidents State Population Reported Packet Pg. 324 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 13 while the second most common reason was related to sexual orientation. No hate crimes against persons with disabilities were reported. Figure VI‐13. Hate Crime Incidents in Fort Collins, by Bias Motivation, 2007‐2011 Note: At the time of this report, the data were missing for the year 2009 on the FBI website. Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation, Hate Crime Statistics. Housing Equity In 2012, Fort Collins conducted a survey examining housing discrimination in an Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing Choice (AI) study as required by HUD. The most common claims of discrimination were for being a student or low income individual with poor credit; disability; familial status; and gender and sexual orientation. The study also examined access to housing by race and ethnicity in Fort Collins. Figure VI‐14 depicts the race, ethnicity, gender, and disability status of heads of households who received assisted housing vouchers. The overwhelming majority of recipients of assisted housing vouchers self‐identify as “White Only” by race. Ethnically Hispanic or Latino residents are overrepresented in FCHA housing programs. They hold approximately 40 percent of vouchers given out by the City. Race Religion Sexual orientation Ethnicity Disability 2011 3 1 1 1 0 6 2010 2 0 4 1 0 7 2009 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2008 5 0 0 0 0 5 2007 5 0 2 1 0 8 Year Number of incidents per bias motivation Total incidents Packet Pg. 325 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 14 Figure VI‐14. Distribution of Public Housing/ Voucher Program Participants and Residents in Poverty Source: Public housing and voucher program data: BBC Research & Consulting from FCHA data. Poverty data for female head of household and disability from 2010 1year ACS, poverty data by race and ethnicity from 2010 5‐year ACS. As demonstrated in Figure VI‐14, public housing and the voucher program provide housing to protected classes at higher rates than their representation of persons in poverty overall for female heads of households, persons with disabilities and persons of Hispanic descent. This may be an indicator of the limited ability or willingness of the private sector to provide affordable housing for these populations. Resources This section discusses the resources in the City intended to foster diversity and inclusiveness. As demonstrated in this section, the resources in the City are many. City cultural diversity programs/groups. Fort Collins has two commissions—the Women’s Commission and the Human Relations Commission—that are specifically dedicated to furthering diversity. The Northside Aztlan Community Center offers community space to many different types of residents for cultural events. And, as summarized below, CSU has many types of resource centers that promote diversity and inclusiveness. City of Fort Collins Women’s Commission. The Women’s Commission was created for “the purpose of enhancing the status of and opportunities for all women in the City” with the ability to document women’s issues; conduct educational and public awareness programs; cooperate with other organizations regarding women’s issues; review proposed legislative or policy changes that could potentially affect the status of women; and make recommendations to the City Council of legislation or policies that could enhance the status of women in the City. City of Fort Collins Human Relations Commission. The Human Relations Commission was created to “promote the acceptance and respect for diversity through educational programs and activities, and to discourage all forms of discrimination based on race, religion, age, gender, disability, etc.” The Commission also oversees the Citizen Liaison Program and presents an annual Human Relations Award. Female Head of Household with Children 54% 37% 2% Disability 44% 55% 7% Head of Household's Race American Indian or Alaska Native Only 2% 3% 1% Asian Only 0% 1% 3% Black/African American Only 3% 4% 2% White Only 94% 92% 85% White, American Indian/Alaska Native 1% 0% White, Black/African American 1% 0% Head of Household's Ethnicity Hispanic or Latino 42% 24% 15% Not Hispanic or Latino 58% 76% 77% All Vouchers Programs Residents Living in Poverty Public Housing BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 15 City of Fort Collins Northside Aztlan Community Center. The Northside Aztlan Community Center’s mission is to ensure its success “by advocating for accessibility, effective programming and multicultural inclusion.” The Center offers programs such as a children’s meal program, youth nights, senior meals, and after‐school activities. CSU and PSD resources. Diversity initiatives and programs at the college and K‐12 level include the following. Vice President for Diversity. CSU has a vice president dedicated to diversity initiatives, “including assessment, evaluation, and accountability; developing strategic partnerships, alliances and collaborations; organizing the annual Diversity Symposium; helping to coordinate activities among on‐campus units, commissions, committees, and task forces; and representing the university through networking and collaboration with outside communities, schools, and organizations.” The Office of the Vice President for Diversity holds an annual Diversity Symposium at the University to celebrate diversity, and an annual High School Diversity Conference where high school students can challenge stereotypes and develop an appreciation and understanding of diversity. Colorado State University Student Diversity Programs & Services (SDPS). CSU offers a selection of programs and services to support students and a diverse campus environment. Asian Pacific American Cultural Center—provides resources for Asian/Pacific American awareness and education. Black/African American Cultural Center—promotes a diverse, inclusive campus environment and serves as a resource to the campus and surrounding communities, through academic, professional, cultural and personal development programs that embrace Black and African American experiences. Its primary goal is to enhance the overall college experience so that students achieve academically and are able to compete in a global society. El Centro—aims to increase the outreach, recruitment, retention, graduation, and cultural pride of Latinos/Hispanics at CSU. Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer and Questioning Resource Center —is committed to providing support services, educational and cultural programs as well as a safe gathering place for GLBT people, other sexual minorities, and allies of the campus and Fort Collins community. Native American Cultural Center—focuses on ensuring a successful educational experience for Native American students by providing advocacy and support services, primarily recruitment, retention, graduation and community outreach. The office embraces and encourages a supportive environment based on the traditions and cultures of Native Americans. Packet Pg. 327 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 16 Resources for Disabled Students—collaborates with students, staff, instructors, and community members to create useable, equitable, inclusive and sustainable learning environments for disabled students. Women and Gender Advocacy Center—provides programs and resources focusing on all genders, social justice, and interpersonal violence prevention. It also provides advocacy and support for victims of sexual violence, stalking, sexual harassment, and relationship violence. Poudre School District Office of Equity and Diversity. PSD is committed to understanding the diversity that the children, staff, and families bring to their schools. The Office of Equity and Diversity supports diverse student leadership programs, community members, groups, and events; encourages professional development opportunities for staff, culturally relevant curriculum and other activities and culturally responsive and inclusive school and community engagement practices; and hears and supports individual concerns regarding equity and diversity in the PSD community. Other organizations that are not formally affiliated with City government, CSU or PSD include the following: Fort Collins International Center. The Fort Collins International Center is a nonprofit community organization that provides intercultural education programs about the world’s cultures in an effort to create a community that is “a model for creating cultural understanding, inclusive of diversity and able to understand cultural differences…” The Center’s programs include: International Friends, which pairs community members with foreign students to provide hospitality during an international newcomer’s stay in Fort Collins; Friday Afternoon Club, a weekly social gathering to connect with the international community and learn about activities and volunteer opportunities; Global Ambassadors Program, an international speakers’ bureau through which CSU international students may share their culture, heritage, language and history with local school classrooms and other community groups; International Night at the Library; Outdoor Programs; and Conversational English Classes. The Center – Northern Colorado Location. The Center, founded in Denver, was created to “engage, empower, enrich, and advance the gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender community of Colorado.” The Northern Colorado location was opened in July 2012. The Center offers a safe place for the GLBT community to connect to counseling, social activities, and health and legal resources. The Northern Colorado location serves about 100 clients a month through phone referrals and another 300 who walk in. The primary concerns of clients include discrimination in employment; access to resources by seniors who aren’t always comfortable discussing their GLBT status; and lack of understanding and bias against children with GLBT parents and GLBT kids. The Center reports that the majority of their children they see who are in PSD transfer schools (mostly to Centennial) to avoid bullying and challenges with transgender status in traditional school settings. The Center also works with Front Range Community College and University of Northern Colorado, providing services to students, as well as community outreach and awareness. Packet Pg. 328 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VI, PAGE 17 Fort Collins Not in Our Town Alliance. NIOTA is a “community‐based effort to create and support collaboration among individuals, agencies, organizations and local governments to address the causes and effects of prejudice, discrimination and hate motivated behavior” by evaluating community diversity concerns, creating strategies to prevent discrimination, and appropriate and timely response to hate motivated incidents. NIOTA holds a regular book club meeting on every 4th Tuesday. India Association of Northern Colorado. IANC is a volunteer‐run nonprofit that promotes Indian culture, social, and spiritual activities in the community, and membership is open to all people interested in Indian culture. Members include CSU staff and employees in the high technology fields. Fuerza Latina. Fuerza Latina is an organization in Northern Colorado of immigrants and allies for immigrants. Fuerza Latina works for human rights, justice and dignity for immigrants and is dedicated to educating, informing, organizing, and promoting change to facilitate an improved quality of life for immigrants in the community. Northern Colorado Intertribal Pow‐wow Association (NCIPA). The Northern Colorado Intertribal Pow‐wow Association (NCIPA), a non‐profit organization, was created in the summer of 1992 to provide opportunities for the Northern Colorado communities to share and participate in Native American cultures. In addition, NCIPA provides information, social networks and educational support to Native Americans in Northern Colorado. Membership in NCIPA is open to any nationality, race or creed. In order to share the diverse Native American cultures with the community, they present an annual pow‐wow in the Fort Collins area. Each year they have attracted thousands of visitors each day, including hundreds of dancers and singers, many arts and crafts vendors, and spectators. Packet Pg. 329 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) SECTION VII. Needs of Targeted Populations Packet Pg. 330 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 1 SECTION VII. Needs of Targeted Populations This section discusses the supportive services and housing needs of three targeted resident groups in Fort Collins including: Persons with Disabilities, Seniors, Victims of Domestic Violence. These targeted populations were chosen because they often face some of the greatest challenges to accessing the housing and services they need and may require public support and subsidies. The needs of two other targeted population group—residents who are gay/lesbian/bisexual/transgender individuals (GLBT) and veterans—are addressed in other sections where their needs were best represented. The needs of GLBT residents are discussed in the Diversity/Equity section. The needs of veterans are discussed in the section on Homelessness. Similarly, the needs of at‐risk youth are discussed in the Education section. Persons with Disabilities Definition. The Census defines a person with a disability as having a “long‐lasting physical, mental or emotional condition, which can make it difficult for a person to do activities such as walking, climbing stairs, dressing, bathing, learning or remembering.” Moreover, “this condition can also impede a person from being able to go outside the home alone or to work at a job or business.”1 Persons with disabilities may require housing that has accessibility features, is near public transit and has supportive services, and is affordable, if their ability to work is limited. Persons with disabilities are also at greater risk of experiencing housing discrimination, often times due to a lack of knowledge about laws governing accommodations for persons who are disabled. Fort Collins population. Approximately 10,000 Fort Collins residents aged five years or older have a disability, according to the 2010 Census. Disability rates are highest for seniors: one‐ quarter of residents aged 65 to 74 have a disability and half of residents 75 and older have a disability. 1 Definition taken from the Census glossary. Packet Pg. 331 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 2 Figure VII‐1. Disability Status for the Population 5 Years Old or More, City of Fort Collins, 2010 Source: ACS 2010 1‐year estimate. Figure VII‐2 presents the number of Fort Collins residents with physical and cognitive disabilities by age cohort. The most common type of disability for seniors is a hearing difficulty, followed by ambulatory difficulty. For children, cognitive difficulties are the most common. Adults between the ages of 18 and 64 are most likely to have a cognitive or ambulatory disability. Figure VII‐2. Number and Share of Fort Collins Residents with Disabilities, by Age Cohort, 2012 Source: 2012 ACS. Children with developmental disabilities. Figure VII‐3 shows the estimated number of children in Fort Collins with a developmental disability, based on prevalence data from a 2011 PEDIATRICS study. Learning disabilities and ADHD are the most common developmental disabilities. Overall, an estimated 4,000 Fort Collins children have some form of developmental disability, about 15 percent of children ages five to 19. It is important to note that the number of children with disabilities in Figure VII‐3 exceeds the Census estimate in Figure VII‐2 because of different definitions of disability (e.g., the Census’ “cognitive” disability definition does not appear to include ADHD or learning disabilities). Population 5 years or older 134,009 10,100 8% 5 to 17 years 20,904 388 2% 18 to 34 years 54,237 1,662 3% 35 to 64 years 46,454 3,437 7% 65 to 74 years 6,999 1,838 26% 75 years and over 5,415 2,775 51% Percent with a disability With a Total disability Hearing difficulty 70 0.4 % 1,083 1.0 % 1,809 15.0 % Vision difficulty 39 0.2 868 0.8 540 4.5 Cognitive difficulty 275 1.4 2,284 2.1 1,169 9.7 Ambulatory difficulty 35 0.2 2,543 2.4 1,528 12.7 Self‐care difficulty 139 0.7 % 786 0.7 551 4.6 Independent living difficulty 1,592 1.5 % 1,241 10.3 % % of Age Cohort Ages 5 ‐ 17 Ages 18 ‐ 64 Ages 65+ # with a Disability % of Age Cohort # with a Disability % of Age # with a Disability Packet Pg. 332 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 3 Figure VII‐3. Estimates of the Number of Fort Collins Children with Developmental Disabilities, 2012 Note: The age cohorts from the PEDIATRICS study and 2012 ACS do not align perfectly. As such, the estimate for children ages five to nine omits children ages three and four. Similarly, the estimate for children ages 10 to 19 includes 18‐ and 19‐year‐olds. This suggests that the number for younger children is a lower bound estimate while the number for older children is an upper bound estimate. Source: BBC Research & Consulting from 2012 ACS and “Trends in the Prevalence of Developmental Disabilities in US Children, 1997‐2008” Boyle, et. al., PEDIATRICS, Volume 127, Number 6, pp 1034‐1046, June 2011. Residence concentrations. Figure VII‐4 uses 2000 Census data at the Census Tract level to examine geographic concentrations of persons with disabilities in Fort Collins.2 Concentrations are based on the 2000 incidence of disability for Fort Collins, which was 12 percent. As the map shows, there are no concentrations of people with disabilities in Fort Collins, based on 2000 data. 2 Data by Census block group were not available for all block groups in the city. Disability data from the 2010 ACS is not available by Census tract or block group. Any developmental disability 11.78 % 16.24 % 1,033 3,063 ADHD 4.72 8.93 414 1,684 Autism 0.56 0.37 49 70 Blind 0.10 0.16 9 30 Cerebral palsy 0.36 0.37 32 70 Moderate to profound hearing loss 0.44 0.46 39 87 Learning disabilities 5.07 9.27 445 1,748 Intellectual disabilities 0.59 0.84 52 158 Seizures in past 12 months 0.72 0.61 63 115 Stuttered or stammered in past 12 months 1.99 1.15 175 217 Other developmental delay 3.86 % 3.41 % 339 643 Total children in the FC population 8,772 18,859 Ages 3 to 10 Ages 11 to 17 Ages 5 to 9Ages 10 to 19 Prevalence in the age cohort in the United States Number of Children in Fort Collins Packet Pg. 333 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 4 Figure VII‐4. Percent of Residents with Disabilities, City of Fort Collins, 2000 Source: 2000 U.S. Census. Income levels of persons with disabilities. Some persons with disabilities are limited in their ability to work and rely on Social Security and disability payments as their primary source of income. The 2012 ACS reports that 47 percent of Fort Collins residents with disabilities are employed. Sixteen percent of residents with disabilities are unemployed and 36 percent are not in the labor force. The median earnings of persons with disabilities are lower than for those without disabilities: in 2012, male workers with a disability earned $21,334 per year compared to earnings of $26,886 for men without a disability. For women, pay was $12,040 for workers with a disability v. $16,922 for workers without a disability. Although all levels of earnings are quite low, those of persons with disabilities are extremely low. The Social Security Administration reports that the average monthly amount received by an eligible person with a disability in 2013 was $1,129. This income, Social Security Disability Income (SSDI), is available only to people who have had a work history, and is equivalent to about $13,500 per year. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) is available to people who do not have a work history or who don’t qualify for SSDI. These payments average $710 per month, equating to about $8,520 per year. Persons with disabilities who are awaiting approval for social security payments are eligible to receive a small amount of cash assistance from the State of Colorado (Aid to the Needy Disabled program). This assistance is just $175/month, which equates to just $2,100 annually. Packet Pg. 334 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 5 Resources. This section discusses the resources available in Fort Collins for persons with disabilities. Where appropriate, the services are organized by type of client targeted. Disabled Resource Services (DRS). DRS is the local Independent Living Center and is a non‐profit agency that provides a variety of services to persons with disabilities in Larimer and Jackson counties. DRS administers 15 housing choice vouchers and provides case management services to more than 6,000 clients per year. On average, 200 of these clients are assisted with rental deposits. DRS provides a range of services from housing location assistance to assistance accessing health care services to advocating for fair housing—e.g., denial of service animals by landlords and accessibility accommodations, as well as employment modifications and upholding civil rights laws. In the past year, the most common needs of clients were financial‐related (e.g., assistance with SSDI applications/renewals/appeals, rent and transportation assistance), followed by information and referral needs. DRS’ clients’ needs are discussed in more detail below in the Gaps section. Accessible Space Incorporated (ASI). ASI is a St. Paul, Minnesota nonprofit organization dedicated to creating supportive housing and assisted living options for persons with disabilities and persons with traumatic brain injuries (TBI). The organization builds housing developments that are accessible, affordable and offer a cooperative supportive services model. ASI developed and manages the Harmony Road Apartments in Fort Collins. The complex includes 23 accessible one‐ and two‐bedroom apartments, wheelchair accessible kitchens, roll in showers, raised electrical outlets and lowered light switches, a controlled‐access entry system and community room. Approved pets are accepted. Persons with cognitive disabilities. Foothills Gateway and Mosaic offer a variety of housing, skills development, employment and caregiving services for persons with cognitive disabilities. Foothills Gateway. Foothills Gateway is the local Community Center Board in Larimer County that serves Fort Collins. Foothills Gateway serves approximately 1,600 persons with cognitive disabilities and their families annually through a broad range of programs and services. Approximately 600 individuals are on their wait list for services. Residential program. Foothills Gateway’s residential program includes supporting individuals living independently in apartments, in companion settings, host homes or staffed homes. The organization administers 111 housing choice vouchers and has placed 52 clients in project‐based Section 8 units under a State Division of Housing funded program. Supported employment and skills development. The Supported Employment Services Program for adults with cognitive disabilities includes screening, job placement, coaching and supportive services. The Community Skill Development Program offers recreational, volunteer and employment opportunities with a focus on skills development, activities of daily living, socialization and recreation. While the Supported Employment Services and Community Skill Development programs are for adults, Foothills Gateway also offers prevocational services to individuals under age 18. Packet Pg. 335 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 6 Adult Care Services and respite services. Foothills Gateway offers respite services to family caregivers for up to a period of 14 days. In addition, they offer a Monday through Friday adult day program that is also available to persons eligible under an Elderly, Blind and Disabled waiver. Early intervention services. Foothills Gateway is mandated by the State of Colorado to serve any Larimer County child under age three with intellectual and developmental disabilities. The organization provides a variety of early intervention services. More than one‐third of the children who are enrolled in the program for one year are able to mainstream into traditional preschool rather than special education. Mosaic in Northern Colorado. Mosaic focuses on providing independent, host home and group living environments in Fort Collins for persons with cognitive disabilities. The Children’s Extensive Services program provides respite care to children living with their family. Respite Care provides care to families who have children with development disabilities. According to the City’s Consolidated Plan, Respite Care provided over 38,000 hours of care to 111 families in 2009. Respite recently moved from a wait list approach to limiting care to a maximum of four days per week, except during vacation stays, to serve more families. The organization also runs a Summer Day Camp and after school care programs. Recreational resources for children and persons with disabilities. Recreational opportunities for children with disabilities can be challenging, especially opportunities that afford such children the ability to play alongside peers without disabilities. New federal requirements under the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) are forcing changes in the landscape of public playgrounds. The new requirements for parks include equipment, materials and designs that provide children with disabilities access to the same play spaces as children without disabilities. These new federal requirements create play spaces that are accessible—yet accessibility does not automatically translate into inclusive. It is important to note the distinction between an ADA accessible playground, and one that is fully accessible and “inclusive.” ADA compliant may mean that a child with a disability can “get to” playground equipment but may not actually be able to “use” the equipment. Accessible and inclusive playgrounds are built such that children with disabilities can engage in the play space in a similar manner as a non‐disabled child. Fort Collins opened its first fully accessible and inclusive playground in 2007. It was also the first such playground in the State of Colorado and remains one of only five of these types of playgrounds in the state.3 Fort Collins’ playground includes safe, state‐of‐the‐art, sensory‐rich structures that encourage integration and the development of cognitive, emotional, physical and social skills for all children. For example, sand centers are located above ground and are wheelchair accessible, allowing a child in wheelchair to play in the elevated sandbox next to other children. The playground is located in the southwest portion of the City. 3 The newest accessible playground is in Colorado Springs, see http://gazette.com/side‐streets‐playground‐lets‐you‐swing‐ high‐even‐if‐you‐cant‐walk/article/99469. Packet Pg. 336 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 7 The Adaptive Recreation Opportunities (ARO) department with the City of Fort Collins provides quality and equal opportunities for recreation and leisure programs to persons with disabilities. There are a variety of specialized recreational opportunities that provide inclusive participation support and transitional assistance via recreational therapy specialists. Gaps. The needs of persons with disabilities generally fall into three areas: housing needs, community service needs and transit needs. Housing needs. It is challenging to quantify the housing needs of persons with disabilities because of the lack of data on the precise needs of residents with disabilities, as well as the numbers of accessible housing units. Yet service and housing providers agree that the need is very large. This is evidenced by the disproportionate representation of persons with disabilities on wait lists of housing providers. The 2012 AI surveyed Fort Collins households about their accessibility needs. Of the 25 percent of households who reported having a household member with a disability, 23 percent said their current home or apartment did not meet their family’s accessibility needs. The most common accessibility improvements needed were grab bars, ramps, wider doorways and single‐level residences. Although the survey was not a statistically significant representation of all Fort Collins households, the data can be used to get a general idea of the need for accessibility improvements. Assuming that 23 percent of the housing units occupied by residents who have at least one household member with a disability and a household size of 1.5 (smaller than the City’s overall to account for seniors), as many as 2,000 housing units in the City are lacking needed accessibility improvements. Wait lists for affordable, accessible housing can also be used to gauge the level of housing needs among persons with disabilities. ASI’s wait list for Harmony Road apartments is two to three years long. Of the approximately 1,500 households on the city’s wait list for public housing units, 391 have a disability. This is about 26 percent of all wait‐listed households, much higher than the proportion of the population with a disability for the city overall. Similarly, 336 of the 1,200 households on the wait list for Section 8 vouchers have a disability, which is equal to 28 percent of Section 8 wait‐listed households. Because the wait list has been closed for some time, these numbers are likely lower‐bound estimates of need. In general, it takes between two and three years for a person with a disability to find affordable housing in the City of Fort Collins. Housing to serve persons with disabilities must be deeply subsidized (renting for less than $300/month) due to the low levels of earnings and income transfer payments received by persons with disabilities. Another analysis in the AI examined what proportion of households benefitting from public housing and housing choice vouchers were disabled. At the time the study was conducted, 44 percent of public housing residents and 55 percent of voucher holders had a household member with a disability. These proportions are much higher than the proportion of residents in poverty who have a disability (7%), suggesting that persons with disabilities have higher rates of Packet Pg. 337 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 8 participation in publicly subsidized housing because their options in the private market are limited. The types of disabilities residents in Fort Collins, as in any other community, vary considerably, as do the housing needs of disabled residents. There is no “one size fits all” approach to providing housing opportunities to persons with disabilities. For example, while a resident with a physical disability may desire and need to live in the City core with ample transit and access to services, a resident with Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) may have difficulty sharing an apartment complex with others and may be better suited in a semi‐rural area in a single family home. Landlords who understand reasonable accommodations laws, especially regulations governing companion and service animals, are also critical. Community service needs. The community service needs of persons with disabilities can vary considerably depending on the disability. The primary needs include: Employment, particularly jobs that pay a living wage. The State of Colorado Division of Vocational Rehabilitation (DVR) assists persons with disabilities to find employment and live independently. DVR counselors help persons with disabilities develop personal employment plans. In 2008, DVR implemented an Order of Selection (OOS) process to help manage the demand for their services. Current wait lists for services are reportedly lengthy. Infrastructure improvements in Old Town and East Fort Collins to enable persons with disabilities the same access to community amenities as persons without disabilities (e.g., front door access to restaurants, easy access to restrooms, street curb cuts). Improved community knowledge about the variety of needs of persons with disabilities and how the community can help accommodate residents with disabilities. (For example, lighting dimmers, contrasting table settings for persons who are visually impaired). For low income residents, quick access (less than a month wait) to adequate health care, including the ability to see specialists. Limits on health care reimbursements also contribute to the supportive service needs of persons with disabilities. For example, persons who are hearing impaired can receive free hearing exams if covered by Medicaid, but Medicaid will not cover the cost of hearing aids, which can exceed $5,000. Foothills Gateway has wait lists that average 300 adults and 200 children annually, which exceeds the number of persons who receive services from the organization. The organization reports increasing demand with insufficient resource levels to meet this demand. Transit needs. For many persons with disabilities, transit is their only source of transportation. A limited transit system—both in terms of hours of operation and geographical reach—can limit housing choices for persons with disabilities and their ability to work, as well as access to supportive services and amenities. There are many parts of the urban growth area of Fort Collins that are not covered by the current public transit and para‐transit systems. Persons with disabilities who live in an area that is not covered by these systems do not have other options and Packet Pg. 338 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 9 are very isolated and dependent on family and friends for all transportation needs. Not only does this have an impact of their ability to socialize and access health care, it also impacts their ability for employment and their choice in housing options. In addition, if an individual dependent on public transit needs to go outside of the Fort Collins transit area, connecting to transit systems in adjacent communities can be time consuming, confusing, and/or unavailable. The current transit system in Fort Collins runs from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. and is closed on Sundays. This schedule limits the ability of persons with disabilities to find jobs, work, and access community activities during evenings and on Sundays. Seniors Fort Collins population. The 2012 ACS reported 12,458 seniors in Larimer County, making up 8 percent of the City’s population. The majority of the City’s seniors are between the ages of 65 and 74 (7,100 or 5% of the City’s population). About 14,000 residents are “near seniors”— between the ages of 55 and 64. Fort Collins’ proportion of seniors is much smaller than Larimer County’s as shown in Figure VII‐5. Figure VII‐5. Population of Seniors and Near Seniors, Fort Collins and Larimer County, 2012 Source: 2012 ACS. The Colorado Department of Local Affairs (DOLA) estimates population growth by age cohort at the county level. By 2025, seniors are expected to make up 18 percent of Larimer County’s residents, up from 13 percent currently. By 2030, the proportion will increase to 19 percent. In total, the county is expected to have 30,600 more seniors by 2025 and 39,600 more by 2030. If Fort Collins’ seniors grow at the same rate, the City could add 10,000 seniors by 2025 and 12,500 by 2030. Total Population 148,634 100% 310,487 100% Under 55 121,998 82% 230,470 74% Near Seniors (55 to 64 years) 14,178 10% 40,362 13% Seniors 12,458 8% 39,655 13% 65 to 74 years 7,136 5% 22,744 7% 75 to 84 years 3,587 2% 11,592 4% 85 years and over 1,735 1% 5,319 2% Number % of Population Number % of Population Fort Collins Larimer County Packet Pg. 339 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 10 Figure VII‐6. Projected Growth in Seniors, Larimer County, 2025 and 2030 Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs. Characteristics of seniors. The City’s seniors are less likely to be living below the poverty line than other age cohorts (the senior poverty rate is just 3.4%). And, the majority of the City’s seniors is retired and may not need to work, according to the 2012 ACS: Of 65‐74 year olds, 29 percent work, 70 percent do not work and less than 1 percent are unemployed (desire to work but cannot find work). Five percent of 75 year olds+ work, none are unemployed and 93 percent are retired. Figure VII‐7. Labor Force Status of Seniors, 2012 Source: 2012 ACS. But seniors are much more likely to be disabled than other age cohorts, with 26 percent of younger seniors and 51 percent reporting a disability. Altogether, more than 4,500 of the City’s 12,500 seniors have one or more disabilities. The most common disability types are hearing and ambulatory, followed cognitive disabilities. Seniors’ housing situation. According to a 2011 national report on older Americans conducted by the federal Administration on Aging, 29 percent of seniors overall live alone and almost half (47%) of senior women over the age of 75 live alone. Figure VII‐8 shows the living arrangements of seniors in Fort Collins as of the 2010 Census. About 40 percent of Fort Collins seniors live alone; 60 percent live with someone else, mostly a family member. Total Population 310,065 100% 394,234 100% 27% 424,834 100% 37% Under 55 230,771 74% 284,327 72% 23% 304,734 72% 32% Near Seniors (55 to 64 years) 39,916 13% 39,885 10% 0% 41,094 10% 3% Seniors 39,378 13% 70,022 18% 78% 79,006 19% 101% 65 to 74 years 22,850 7% 39,551 10% 73% 39,920 9% 75% 75 to 84 years 11,372 4% 23,198 6% 104% 29,221 7% 157% 85 years and over 5,156 2% 7,273 2% 41% 9,865 2% 91% Growth in number of seniors 30,644 39,628 Percent Growth, 2012‐30 2030 Number % of Number Population % of Number Populatio % of Population 2012 2025 Percent Growth, 2012‐25 Age 65‐74 years old 2,108 29.5% 60 0.8% 4,968 69.6% 75+ years old 378 5.3% 0 0.0% 4,944 92.9% In Labor Force Unemployed Not in Labor Force Packet Pg. 340 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 11 Figure VII‐8. Living Arrangements of Fort Collins Seniors, 2012 Source: 2012 ACS. Very few seniors live in institutional settings (e.g., nursing homes), and the number has been declining. Nationwide, just one percent of 65‐74 year olds and 3.5 percent of 75‐84 year olds live in institutional settings. Nursing homes are largely occupied by 85 year olds+, 13 percent of whom live in institutional settings. Similarly, despite a growing trend toward assisted living facilities, a very small proportion (2.4% nationwide) of seniors live in senior housing with at least one supportive service available to their residents. Resources. There are many resources for seniors in Fort Collins, many of which are coordinated through the Larimer County Office on Aging (LCOA). This section provides a broad overview of those available. More detailed information can be found at the Larimer County Office on Aging website and web links (http://www.larimer.org/seniors/) Adult Resources for Care and Help, or ARCH, provides resources, including short term case management, to seniors to help them remain independent. The Family Caregiver Support Program supports family members who are caring for seniors in their homes. This includes counseling, respite assistance and connecting the caregiver to support groups. The county also offers a Long Term Care Ombudsman program which matches professional advocates with families to provide assistance and mediation with long term care facilities. The county’s Senior Tax Work‐Off program allows low income residents age 60+ to work off up to $400 or their property tax bill. Qualified seniors are placed in jobs within Larimer County government offices; they also receive a stipend at the end of their service. LCOA also helps coordinate Project Visibility, which trains administrators of nursing homes, assisted living facilities, home care agencies and other providers of services to older adults about LGBT seniors, their sensitivities and needs. Other organizations that primarily serve seniors in the City include: Elderhaus has two facilities that provide recreation and services to both special needs and “higher‐energy” seniors. Services include transportation assistance, nutrition services, programming for veterans, mobile health services and a Medicaid Benefit Helper program. Rehabilitation Visiting Nurses Association (RVNA). RVNA is a home health care provider in northern Colorado. The majority of seniors served are very low income and many have disabilities and/or mental illnesses. The organization serves more than 200 Fort Collins seniors. Living Arrangement 3,471 40% 5,114 60% 4,925 57% 189 2% Living with others Living with family member Living with other than family member Living alone Number Percent Packet Pg. 341 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 12 Volunteer of America provides a variety of services to seniors including respite services, households assistance (grocery shopping, handyman services), Meals on Wheels, congregate dining and volunteer transportation. Saint Volunteer Transportation (SAINT) provides transportation, through volunteers, to seniors in Fort Collins and Loveland. About two‐thirds of seniors served are moderate to high income; 24 percent are low income. Many are physically and developmentally disabled and/or have mental illnesses. The nonprofit provides an estimated 15,000 to 300 clients in Fort Collins. A new program, known as the Larimer County Special Needs Population Registry, is a collaboration of seven local agencies and the Cities of Fort Collins and Loveland. This program allows individuals or family members to register persons who may need assistance to evacuate their residence, in times of emergencies. Finally, the City’s Senior Center provides life‐enhancing services to seniors at all income levels. Senior housing. The City’s Consolidated Plan provides an inventory of senior housing options, including 534 subsidized housing units or units that have reduced rents for the elderly, which are also available to persons with disabilities; 560 independent living units; 538 assisted living beds, and more than 750 nursing home beds in Fort Collins. The Consolidated Plan reports that most of the nursing homes in Fort Collins accept Medicaid clients; most of assisted living facilities do not. There are seven housing developments that provide affordable housing units for the elderly or frail elderly, accounting for more than 500 affordable units for seniors. In some cases, younger persons with disabilities may reside in these units. There between 150 and 200 elderly households on Housing Authority wait lists. Gaps. Although there are a variety of services available to seniors in Fort Collins, gaps exist— and are likely to worsen as the number of seniors doubles in the next 15 years. The primary gaps include: Limited housing options for grandfamilies. As discussed in the At‐Risk Youth section, as many as 900 grandparents in Fort Collins have grandchildren living in their homes; 224 are the primary care givers to these children. Representatives of local grandfamily organizations report that finding housing that will accommodate the needs of low income grandparents is very challenging: 60 percent of grandfamilies who qualify for housing subsidies do not receive them, according to a recent report on Best Practices in Grandfamily housing conducted by CSU Extension in Larimer County. Subsidized senior housing facilities are generally small (1 bedroom apartments) and do not allow children, nor do they offer the amenities children need (playgrounds). The situation is more difficult for grandparents who have a disability and/or have a grandchild with special needs. Lack of visitable and accessible housing. Housing that is “visitable”—i.e., incorporates a zero‐ step entry, features that can be made accessible with little modification—allows seniors to age in place with fewer challenges than traditional housing products, which have stairs, bathrooms that are difficult to make accessible, etc. Packet Pg. 342 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 13 As many as 2,000 Fort Collins households expressed a need for accessibility improvements in the survey conducted for the City’s recent fair housing study; many of these households are seniors. The need for accessibility improvements will increase in the next 15‐20 as the relatively large cohort of “near seniors” ages. Finally, between 150 and 200 seniors are in need of affordable rental housing, based on wait list information from the Fort Collins Housing Authority. At the time this report was prepared, 182 seniors were on the wait list for public housing and 149 were waiting for Section 8 vouchers. Because the wait list has been closed for some time, these numbers are likely lower‐bound estimates of need. Growing demand for social service supports and transportation. As the senior population in Larimer County and Fort Collins more than doubles in the next 15 years, demands for services will increase dramatically. The services more likely to be needed are in‐home health care and household supports (since many seniors age in place) and transportation assistance, including public transit. SAINT identifies volunteer recruitment, as well as lack of paratransit between Fort Collins and Loveland and limited transit in greater Larimer County, as a major barrier to transportation assistance for seniors in the county and person with disabilities. Lack of affordable rental housing. Low income seniors also face a gap in affordable rentals, as well as Medicaid‐supported beds in assisted living facilities. As discussed in Section I, there is a shortage of more than 8,000 affordable rentals for low income households in Fort Collins. This gap affects seniors as much as other low income households. Assisted living facilities are generally too expensive for low income seniors unless they have some type of subsidy for the facility. Packet Pg. 343 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 14 Victims of Domestic Violence Definition. Victims of domestic violence are those residents who have experienced, in the terms of the CDC, “intimate partner violence” or IPV. For the purposes of this section, victims include adults who have been subjected to IPV (youth are covered in the section on At‐Risk Youth). Prevalence. Local data on the prevalence of IPV are generally difficult to find due to privacy rights and reluctance of some victims to discuss or report IPV. The volume of calls to help lines, women and men receiving counseling and victims seeking shelter provide an indication of a point in time estimate of need. Surveys are necessary to estimate lifetime prevalence rates and the long term effects of such IPV. National prevalence. At the national level, the CDC collects national data on lifetime prevalence of IPV through the National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey (NISVS).4 This ongoing, nationally representative survey collects information about the IPV experiences of English‐ or Spanish‐speaking men and women age 18 years and older. The most recent survey data are as of 2010 and include state prevalence rates. These data are used to estimate the number of IPV victims in Fort Collins. Victims of domestic violence are disproportionately likely to be women—but it is a misconception that all victims are women. A 2010 national survey by the CDC reported that 25 percent of women nationwide have been the victim of severe physical violence by an intimate partner, compared to 14 percent of men. Gender differences are smaller when all types of physical violence and psychological violence are factored in. For example, nationally 36 percent of women and 29 percent of men have experienced rape, other physical violence, and/or stalking by an intimate partner in their lifetime according to the CDC survey. In Colorado, the lifetime prevalence is similar by gender: 33 percent for women and 29 percent for men. National estimates on number of people in the U.S. who have experienced physical violence by an intimate partner at some point in their life are reported in Figure VII‐9. These estimates of IPV may appear high upon a first read—yet the prevalence of domestic violence has been well documented nationally, especially for women. Studies consistently find the prevalence of physical violence against women to range from approximately one‐quarter to one‐third of adult women.1,5 4 “National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey,” Center for Disease Control, National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, 2010. 5 “Full Report of the Prevalence, Incidence and Consequences of Violence Against Women,” Findings from the National Violence Against Women Survey, U.S. Department of Justice, 2000. Packet Pg. 344 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 15 Figure VII‐9. Number of Victims and Prevalence of Violence by an Intimate Partner, U.S. Women and Men, 2010 Source: National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey, Center for Disease Control, 2010. By race and ethnicity. The reported prevalence of domestic violence is highest for female victims who are Multiracial (54% according to the NISVS), American Indian/Alaskan Native (46%) and African American (44%). These compare to rates for white women of 35 percent and, Hispanic women, 37 percent. For men, the rates are highest for American Indian/Alaskan Natives (45%), Multiracial and African American (both 39%). White and Hispanic men report the lowest rates of victimization at 28 and 27 percent, respectively. Fort Collins population. Approximately 20,000 women and 16,800 men in Fort Collins are estimated to have experienced IPV violence at some point in their lives. These numbers are based on State of Colorado lifetime prevalence rates from the CDC applied to the Fort Collins population of women and men 18 years and older. Statewide prevalence rates also suggest that in any given year, an estimated 3,600 women and 2,900 men in Fort Collins experience IPV.6 It should be noted that the number of women experiencing IPV in Fort Collins at a point in time may be higher than that nationally because the City’s age distribution is skewed towards 18‐24 year olds, the age range during which IPV most commonly occurs for the first time. 7 Community demand for services. Although the supportive and housing services needed by IPV victims vary, generally, all need health care and counseling immediately following the event and continued mental health support to assist with the traumatic stress disorder related to the event. Victims may also require assistance with substance abuse and mental health services, both of which are common among IPV victims. Affordable housing is also critical: the National Alliance 6 These rates are based on national 12 month prevalence rates (state 12 month rates are not available). 7 For example, the NISVS survey reports that 48 percent of bisexual women who had been raped were ages11 to 17 when it occurred; 33 percent were between the ages of 18 and 24. Similarly, 28 percent of heterosexual women were first victimized when they were between 11 and 17 years old; 38 percent were victimized when they were 18 to 24 years old. Prevalence of Intimate Partner Violence % Experiencing Rape, Physical Violence and/or Stalking 36% 29% 6% 5% # of Victims 42,420,000 32,280,000 6,982,000 5,691,000 Type of Violence Experienced Slapped, pushed or shoved 34,943,000 27,989,000 Severe physical violence (e.g., kicked, beaten) 27,882,000 14,915,000 Rape 21,840,000 1,581,000 Psychological aggression 55,447,000 54,091,000 # of Women Victimized # of Men Victimized Women Men Lifetime Prevalence 12 months Women Men Packet Pg. 345 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 16 to End Homelessness argues that a “strong investment in housing is crucial [to victims of domestic violence]…so that the family or woman is able to leave the shelter system as quickly as possible without returning to the abuse.” This includes permanently affordable rentals as well as transitional housing that can been accessed quickly, when needed by victims fleeing violence. The Alliance also reports that studies on homelessness have shown a correlation between domestic violence and homelessness.8 Based on the 12 month prevalence of IPV and above service needs, if 3,600 Fort Collins women and 2,900 men experience IPV annually, approximately 550 (300 women and 250 men) would need services on a monthly basis. This compares to the 202 adults and 21 children who sought and received services through Crossroads Safehouse’s counseling program. Domestic violence can have lasting effects. The 2010 CDC survey found that IPV victims were more likely to report frequent headaches, chronic pain, difficulty sleeping, activity limitation, poor physical health and poor mental health, at rates higher than those who did not experience IPV violence. The NIPSVS estimates that 29 percent of Colorado women experiencing IPV, or 547,000 women, have IPV‐related health impacts. These impacts include fear or concern for safety (28%), Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (22%), and injury or need for medical care (15%). This rate applied to Fort Collins’ population of women 18 years and older suggests that as many as 5,800 female adult residents of the City have IPV‐related health challenges. The long term health costs of IPV is unclear, because it is difficult to separate out health care problems that are directly related to IPV. It is likely, though, that the negative impacts of IPV are felt throughout the broader community in health care costs, missed time at work and school and lasting psychological effects on children and victims. Resources. Fort Collins is fortunate to have one of the largest providers of domestic violence services in the State of Colorado. Crossroads Safehouse is Larimer County’s largest and oldest safehouse. The nonprofit has been in operation since 1980. Crossroads provides: An emergency hotline for crisis intervention, available 24 hours/day, 7 days/week with language translation services, A safehouse with emergency shelter (81 emergency beds that allow up to a 6 week stay and 21 longer‐term beds, with up to a 6 month stay) Transitional housing for up to two years (25 vouchers through the Fort Collins Housing Authority), Counseling services (202 unduplicated adults served in 2012), A unique program, Crosstrails, that provides emergency shelter/foster homes for pets belonging to Safehouse residents. 8 http://www.endhomelessness.org/pages/domestic_violence. Packet Pg. 346 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) BBC RESEARCH & CONSULTING SECTION VII, PAGE 17 The Sexual Assault Victim Advocate Center, or SAVA, is also located in Fort Collins. The organization assists victims of sexual assault though crisis intervention, advocacy and counseling. SAVA also maintains a 24‐hour hotline for victims and has a large education and outreach component that includes educational programs in schools. SAVA reports that the greatest needs of their clients are mental health services, rental assistance, and—the most critical—emergency housing and transportation to the Medical Center of the Rockies. For the organization, sustainable sources of funding are needed to be able to increase school programming, add staff (bilingual, therapist), provide on‐site medical services and fund client transportation services. Many other organizations in the City serve residents who have experienced IPV, including health care providers (both physical and mental health), job training centers, assisted housing providers and the many programs that assist persons living in poverty. Gaps. The service and housing demands, needs and gaps for residents who have experienced IPV are summarized in the following graphic. One of the most noticeable gaps in service is for victimized men. There are no domestic violence shelters in Fort Collins who only serve men. Prevalence rates suggest that as many as 2,900 men experienced domestic violence in the City in the past year. Packet Pg. 347 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 1 SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY GAP ANALYSIS Packet Pg. 348 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 2 SUSTAINABILITY SERVICES Environmental Social Economic Packet Pg. 349 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 3 MASLOW”S HEIRARCHY Packet Pg. 350 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 4 STRATEGIC PLANNING PROCESS GAP ANALYSIS SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY STRATEGIC PLAN SUSTAINABILITY AREA STRATEGIC PLAN Packet Pg. 351 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 5 DEFINITION OF SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY Social Sustainability is the practice of ensuring healthy social systems so that people in our community can thrive. Packet Pg. 352 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 6 QUESTIONS FOR CONSIDERATION • What questions does Council have about the findings presented? • Currently the roles the City of Fort Collins plays in these issues are: Funder, Provider of incentives, Convener, Strategic partner, Collaborator, Provider of reduced program fees What are Council’s thoughts regarding these roles or others the City should consider? Packet Pg. 353 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 7 GAP ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY • Collection of existing data • Interviews with providers • Comparison of existing resources and capacity levels with needs Packet Pg. 354 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 8 FOCUS AREAS OF THE ANALYSIS • Housing • Homelessness • Poverty • Health and Wellness • Education and At-Risk Youth • Diversity and Equity—racial/ethnic, religious, sexual orientation • Targeted Populations-Persons with Disabilities, Seniors, Veterans, Victims of domestic violence Packet Pg. 355 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 9 CURRENT CITY EFFORTS • Affordable Housing Projects • Human Service Agency Funding • Reduced Fees for Recreation and Cultural Programs • Free Natural Area Programs • Grocery Tax Rebate • Utility Assistance Packet Pg. 356 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 10 AFFORDABLE HOUSING • Cost burdened > 30% of monthly income • 59% renters, 28% homeowners • Shortage of 8,800 affordable rental units for <$25,000/year earners • Lack of security deposit assistance Packet Pg. 357 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 11 AFFORDABLE HOUSING (con’t.) HOUSING FOR HOMELESS INDIVIDUALS • 100 chronic homeless, 1000 PSD students per year • Gaps in entire continuum of housing • Needs for homeless youth and families • Previously incarcerated have few choices Packet Pg. 358 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 12 AFFORDABLE HOUSING (con’t.) ACCESSIBLE, AFFORDABLE HOUSING for DISABLED • • 2000 housing units needed • Can take 2-3 years • Housing needed near transit • Packet Pg. 359 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 13 AFFORDABLE HOUSING (Con’t.) HOUSING AND SERVICES FOR RAPIDLY GROWING SENIOR POPULATION • Seniors to double in 15 years. • Increased need for accessible housing (walkable, near transit) • Grandparents raising grandchildren need appropriate housing Packet Pg. 360 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 14 JOBS THAT PAY SELF-SUFFICIENT WAGES • 19.3% poverty rate • 55% of persons in poverty, 30-40% of homeless work • Area median income down two years in a row Packet Pg. 361 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 15 ACCESS TO MENTAL HEALTH AND SUBSTANCE ABUSE TREATMENT • Approximately 2,700 have untreated mental illness • 35 suicides per year • 4-6 week wait for psychiatrist or psychologist • Lack quality 24/7 services Packet Pg. 362 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 16 EDUCATIONAL AND FAMILY SUPPORTS FOR VULNERABLE CHILDREN • Child Care Assistance is inadequate • Need additional sliding scale child care providers • Before/after school and summer programs are expensive • Transit is a barrier to accessing programs Packet Pg. 363 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 17 NEXT STEPS • Incorporate comments from Council and public into final report. • Begin Social Sustainability Strategic Plan development process • Present Social Sustainability Strategic Plan draft in early summer Packet Pg. 364 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) 18 QUESTIONS FOR CONSIDERATION • What questions does Council have about the findings presented? • Currently the roles the City of Fort Collins plays in these issues are: Funder, Providing of incentives, Convener, Strategic partner, Collaborator, Reduced program fees What are Council’s thoughts regarding these roles or others the City should consider? Packet Pg. 365 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) AT-RISK YOUTH AND EDUCATION Children living in poverty, 2012 (<$23,550 for a family of four) 1,243 2,696 Children who are homeless, 2010-11 PSD 3-10th graders who struggled academically in 2013 (scored unsatisfactory or partially proficient on standardized tests INDICATORS OF NEED WHAT PROGRAMS ARE IMPORTANT TO ADDRESS NEEDS? • Early childhood education • Before and after school programs • Parent/caregiver support and education programs • Youth safehouse 6,238 9,824 • Subsidized housing for low income and homeless families • Therapy for abused, emotionally disturbed children • Substance abuse treatment WHAT DOES FORT COLLINS HAVE AND WHAT’S MISSING? CHILDCARE SUBSIDIES < 5 years old 5-19 years old 1,021 Math 10,475 Reading Writing PSD teens suspended 1,485 or expelled, 2012-13 PSD teens who drop 200/year out of school Who become pregnant 60/year (average, 2008-2012) Total 3,939 ~60 In foster care, ages 16-21 NEED 1,243 AVAILABLE 1,032 GAP 211 ECE PROGRAMS 3-4 YEAR OLDS 3,500 ENROLLED 2,700 POTENTIAL 800 GAP PSD/Thompson students with untreated severe mental illness, 2008-09 3,200 300/year Are neglected/abused • Child care (~100 children on wait lists, mostly infants • Before/after school, summer programs (50-75 families earning < $40,000/year need assistance) DIVERSITY & EQUITY RACIAL AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY 2010 Census RELIGIOUS DIVERSITY Evangelical Protestant 43% Other religions 27% Mainline Protestant 17% Roman Catholic 4% Latter-day Saint 3% Jehovah’s Witnesses 3% Jewish 2% Orthodox Christian 1% LANGUAGE DIVERSITY Larimer County INCLUSIVENESS/TOLERANCE U.S. Total 286,010,550 6,222 2.18 Colorado 4,992,496 186 3.73 Fort Collins 146,494 6 4.10 Loveland 68,024 1 1.47 Greeley 94,507 10 10.58 Boulder 99,081 2 2.02 Total Number of Reported Incidents, per 100,000 People Total Number of Incidents State Population Reported 2011 Hate Crimes Packet Pg. 367 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) DIVERSITY & EQUITY WHAT DOES FORT COLLINS HAVE? • Access to GLBT resources in high schools and CSU • Access to counseling and other resources for the GLBT community • Access to languages other than English on city and school websites • Fort Collins International Center: • Conversational English classes • Cultural understanding programs • Intercultural education programs • Foreign student hospitality program • Assorted cultural and heritage organizations/associations • Resources for immigrants • Anti-hate crime community organization • Diverse places of worship Packet Pg. 368 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) PERSONS WHO ARE HOMELESS Number of homeless residents at any point in time: 250-500 20% children (50-100 children) 36% families (90-180 people) 35% victims of domestic violence (90-175 people) 20% severely mentally ill ~50% mentally ill (50-250 need mental health services) Veterans 8% male (20-40) 1% female (3-5) 19% chronically homeless (50-100 people) 0.5% chronically homeless families (1-2 families) 6% unsheltered (5-10 families) 87% of adults are parolees/formerly incarcerated (175-350 adults) Number of children homeless during the school year ~1,000 Packet Pg. 369 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) PERSONS WHO ARE HOMELESS RESOURCES WHAT DOES FORT COLLINS HAVE AND WHAT’S MISSING? ~1,000 PreventionHousing Rapid Re-housing Supportive • Rental assistance • Utilities assistance • Financial counseling • Rental deposit assistance • Monthly rental assistance • Financial counseling • Housing and services for: • Mental health • Physical health • Workforce training • Case management Coordinated multi-agency one-stop for assistance Emergency Shelter • Single men and women • Families • Domestic violence • Youth PREVENTION ASSISTANCE Households receiving prevention assistance RAPID RE-HOUSING 80* Households re-housed SUPPORTIVE HOUSING 60 Supportive housing units under development EMERGENCY SHELTER 115 beds • Single men • Single women • Families • Domestic violence • Veterans 22 beds 12 beds 107 beds 12 beds • Transitional housing • Permanent supportive housing • Beds for families • Youth shelter • Onsite health services at Resource Center • Day shelter *January to October 2013 Packet Pg. 370 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES Fort Collins residents have one or more disabilities 10,000 4% are children CHARACTERISTICS Average social security amount received by persons with disabilities in 2013 Employment status Most common: learning and ADHD disabilities 50% are 18-64 years old 46% are seniors Most common: ambulatory and cognitive disabilities Most common: hearing and ambulatory disabilities $1,129/mo. or $13,500/yr. $21,334 Median earnings (2012 inflation-adjusted dollars) Men without disabilities Men with disabilities $26,886 $12,040 Women without disabilities $16,922 Women with disabilities Packet Pg. 371 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES WHAT PROGRAMS ARE IMPORTANT TO ADDRESS NEEDS? • Affordable housing (rents < $300/mo.) • Affordable, accessible housing, near transit • Public transit with after-work, weekend hours • Supported employment services (relationships with employers) WHAT IS IT MISSING? • Respite care, adult day care • Educational supports for children • Adaptive recreation opportunities • Knowledge among landlords, businesses about reasonable accommodations Affordable housing (rents < $500/mo. and housing choice vouchers) ~350 New accessible units ~60 • Quick access to medical care when needed (current wait = 6-8 weeks) • Jobs for persons with disabilities who are unemployed (~1,000 residents) • Supported employment services • Transit that is available after work hours (6-10 p.m.) and on Sundays • Accessibility improvements to existing homes/apartments (2,000 need rehabilitation) Services for persons with intellectual or developmental disabilities 600 Packet Pg. 372 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) HEALTH & WELLNESS Serious mental illness INDICATORS OF NEED WHAT DOES FORT COLLINS HAVE? AND WHAT’S MISSING? Per 100,000 residents 22.5 suicides 6,500 adults 1,500 teens Alcohol abuse 26,000 residents Drug abuse 11,000 residents Overweight/obese 18,400 adults (15%) 7,200 children (31%) Per 10,000 residents 0.87 healthy food outlets Per 10,000 residents 8.27 fast food outlets 600 untreated adolescents • Easy, 24/7 access to quality mental health services V. Food insecure households 8,200 insecure 3,400 very insecure ~3,200 untreated children 2,700 untreated adults • Detox center • Respite and residential mental health care • More sober living facilities for men • Sober living facility for women Of children ages 1-14 who ate fast food 1+ times/week 65% • Outpatient mental health services • Suicide prevention resources • ~50 inpatient treatment beds fro behavioral health needs • Wellness coalition • Food pantries HOUSING WHAT PROGRAMS ARE IMPORTANT TO ADDRESS NEEDS—AND WHAT’S MISSING? • Fort Collins Housing Authority—154 public housing units (1,500 household waitlist) and 1,100 vouchers (waitlist closed) • Other affordable housing organizations/developers—2,407 units (includes some FCHA vouchers) with 360+ households on waitlists • A continuum of housing types—limited shelter space, transitional housing, accessible housing • Local funding/programs—Affordable Housing Fund, development incentives, housing trust fund, land banking, proactive marketing • Nonprofit organizations—financial services, affordable housing development/advocacy, foreclosure prevention, homeownership programs, rental assistance, community development HOUSING GAPS/INDICATORS OF NEED 28% of all Fort Collins homeowners are cost-burdened (8,425 households) 8% own their house free and clear (no mortgage) 69% earn less than $50,000/yr 19% are seniors 1,491 earn less than $5,000 1,980 earn $5,000-$10,000 1,955 earn $10,000-$15,000 2,258 earn $15,000-$20,000 1,154 earn $20,000-$25,000 *up to 4,600 of these could be students 8,838* households in need of rental subsidies HOMEOWNERSHIP RENTALS Median value, 2000 = $169,000 Median value, 2012 = $248,800 Difference = $79,800 (47% increase) *Market is much less affordable for would-be owners Median rent, 2000 = $689/mo. Median rent, 2012 = $1,002/mo. Difference = $313 (45% increase) *Renter incomes have not kept up with rent increases HOMEOWNERSHIP RENTALS Packet Pg. 374 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) Packet Pg. 373 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) • Subsidized housing for families • Housing and supportive services for youth aging out of foster care • Counseling, mental heath, substance abuse services (likely to increase when program eligibility changes to 130% of poverty level) Packet Pg. 366 Attachment3.2: Powerpoint presentation [Revision 4] (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) Packet Pg. 326 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) Housing Stock Renter Purchase Gap Renters Who Want to Buy: Max Affordable Home Packet Pg. 238 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) $80,916 Actual median income 2000 OWNERS Packet Pg. 229 Attachment3.1: Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis Report (1670 : Social Sustainability Gaps Analysis) $50,000 $120,000 $27,200 $16,300 $5,000 $26,645 $3,150 Conventional: Average Midsize $27,200 $6,900 25 $1,500 $2,850 $3,000 Figure 2: total cost of ownership for various vehicle options ($), includes purchase and three years of fuel. includes state and federal incentives and assumes adequate tax appetite. Note: volt and Civic are compact cars while all others depicted are midsize class. tOtal cOSt Of OWNErSHiP fOr variOuS vEHiclE tyPES 05: advanCed tranSportation Packet Pg. 121 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 119 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Scenario Demand 23 2030 BAU Demand 45 -48% Figure 1: this transportation energy reduction potential estimate for Fort Collins is based on a detailed, national-level analysis conducted by Rocky mountain institute for Reinventing Fire. fOrt cOlliNS traNSPOrtatiON ENErgy rEDuctiON POtENtial 05: advanCed tranSportation Packet Pg. 116 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) ³¹ “fort CollinS tranSportation maSter plan,” City of fort CollinS, 2/15/11. http://www.fCgov.Com/planfortCollinS/pdf/tmp.pdf 05: advanCed tranSportation Packet Pg. 115 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) and the community all play crucial roles in enabling this transition by aligning pricing and incentive structures with the community’s goals and by employing new, creative approaches to accelerating adoption of customer-sited resources. 04: renewaBle eleC. SUpply Packet Pg. 113 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Customer Acquisition, Permitting, Interconnection, Inspection, Installation Module & Inverter BOS: Installation Costs Current Total Cost - U.S. Avg. BOS: Finance, Warranty, O&M, Residual Potential Cost Installed Cost (Q1 2013 $) $4.93 $2.21 Cost Components Cost Reduction Opportunities Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. July 2013 Solar Spot Price Index. August 2013; GTM/SEIA Q1 2013 Solar Market Insight; Friedman et al.; Second Annual Benchmarking Non-Hardware Balance-of-System (Soft) Costs for U.S. Photovoltaic Systems, Using a Bottom-Up Approach and Installer Survey. NREL. Pre-Release. July 2013; Seel et al. “Why Are Residential PV Prices in Germany So Much Lower Than in the United States?” LBNL. February 2013. OPPOrtuNitiES fOr rEDuciNg tHE cOSt Of rOOf-mOuNtED SOlar Pv 23 See http://www.SolaraBCS.org/ for more information. 24 See http://www.ireCUSa.org/wp-Content/UploadS/Sharing-SUCCeSS-final- verSion.pdf for more information. Figure 7: installed prices for sub 10 kilowatt rooftop pv systems are being installed in the $2.21/ wdc range in Germany as of the first quarter of 2013. over 90% of the cost difference between the u.S. and Germany is attributable to differences in "soft costs" as depicted above. achieving such low costs is possible in the u.S., as evidenced by the department of Energy's currently funded competition that awards companies able to install 5,000 new rooftop solar systems for an average price of $2.00/w or less. 04: renewaBle eleC. SUpply Packet Pg. 109 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 103 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) for_ria_2013_Update.pdf 04: renewaBle eleC. SUpply Packet Pg. 102 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 07 08 09 10 11 12 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 Price (2011 $/mcf) Year EIA Projec7ons v. Actual U.S. Average Wellhead Natural Gas Prices Sources: annual energy outlooks 1985-1987, 1989-2011 (see http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/archive.cfm for an archive of reports through 2012.); early aeo 2012 Bea gdp implicit price deflator 04: renewaBle eleC. SUpply Packet Pg. 101 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) 400 500 600 700 800 900 Capacity - MW Hydro Coal Gas - Combustion Turbine Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Utility Wind Distributed PV Utility PV Combined Heat and Power Accelerated Scenario Building Eciency Business-As-Usual Building Eciency Figure 1: Fort Collins’ accelerated clean electricity pathway (right) reflects 100% net electricity emissions reduction by 2030. the business-as-usual pathway (left) is a projection of 2005–2012 trends to 2030. Capacity is much higher for the accelerated case due to renewables’ lower capacity factors relative to fossil-fueled generation sources. Excess renewables are generated to offset remaining natural gas generation. 2013–2030 ElEctricity SyStEm SuPPly POrtfOliO 04: renewaBle eleC. SUpply Packet Pg. 99 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 93 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Packet Pg. 90 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) fort Collins is thus among the leaders but not at the forefront. at this formative moment, fort Collins can stay on its current path or it can choose to accelerate its carbon reduction plan and stand among the world’s leading cities. the community is uniquely positioned to accelerate its goal, develop a specific implementable plan, and in doing so, become a replicable model for cities elsewhere, contributing to a broader energy shift nationally and globally. 02: why aCCelerate fort CollinS' Climate goalS? Packet Pg. 83 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) down some of the oldest, dirtiest existing plants, and utilities and communities around the country are already reflecting the cost of carbon in planning. 3 roadmap to moving to a low-CarBon eConomy in 2050," http://eC.eUropa.eU/Clima/ poliCieS/roadmap/index_en.htm. aCCeSSed 9/12/13. 4 "2-degree gloBal warming limit iS Called a 'preSCription for diSaSter'," mark fiSChetti, SCientifiC ameriCan, 12/6/11. http://BlogS.SCientifiCameriCan.Com/ oBServationS/2011/12/06/two-degree-gloBal-warming-limit-iS-Called-a-preSCription- for-diSaSter/ 02: why aCCelerate fort CollinS' Climate goalS? Packet Pg. 82 Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) Attachment2.3: Stepping Up Fort Collins (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) $6,300 $1,700 Alternative B. Increase Magnitude 100% below 2005 baseline by 2050 2.2% 2030 Energy: $1,300 Trans: $160 Other: $0 $1,500 Energy: $1,400 Trans: $380 Other: $0 $1,800 $15 Leadership opportunity to join limited ranks of communities with carbon neutral goal; may attract increased investment and innovation Carbon neutral requires overproduction of renewable energy to compensate for segments of the inventory/ economy with no local control; requiring ongoing investment which limits financial benefits 2050 Energy: $2,300 Trans: $440 Other: $600 $3,300 Energy: $5,300 Trans: $2,000 Other: $0 $7,400 $1,600 Alternative C. Accelerate Timeframe 80% below 2005 baseline by 2030 3.2% 2030 Energy: $2,000 Trans: $180 Other: $0 $2,200 Energy: $2,200 Trans: $440 Other: $0 $2,600 $0 Makes leadership statement; may attract increased investment and innovation; Greater financial benefits over the 2050 planning horizon Tests boundaries of program uptake; May require more financial investment in the near term 2050 Energy: $2,400 Trans: $360 Other: $0 $2,700 Energy: $5,900 Trans: $1,600 Other: $0 $7,600 $1,900 Packet Pg. 61 Attachment2.2: GHG Goal Alternative (1683 : GHG Goal Alternatives) by 2050 2.2% Alternative C. Accelerate Timeframe 48% below baseline 80% below 2005 baseline by 2030 3.2% Historical Emissions Reductions 9% below 2005 by 2012 1.2% Packet Pg. 38 Parcels Available Land - 760.28 Acres City Wide City Limits - Area 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Miles Scale 1:27,000 © ATTACHMENT 6 Packet Pg. 16 Attachment1.6: Available Land South 2013 (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) Parcels Available Land - 760.28 Acres City Wide City Limits - Area 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Miles Scale 1:27,000 © ATTACHMENT 5 Packet Pg. 15 Attachment1.5: Available Land Middle 2013 (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations) by any person or entity. Printed: January 28, 2014 FG Medical Marijuana Businesses Parcels Available Land - 760.28 Acres City Wide City Limits - Area 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Miles Scale 1:27,000 © ATTACHMENT 4 Packet Pg. 14 Attachment1.4: Available Land North 2013 (1685 : Amendment 64 Proposed Local Regulations)