HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOUNCIL - AGENDA ITEM - 01/10/2006 - ITEMS RELATING TO THE HARMONY CORRIDOR PLAN AND HA DATE: January 10, 2006 WORK SESSION ITEM
STAFF: Pete Wray FORT COLLINS CITY COUNCIL
SUBJECT FOR DISCUSSION
Items relating to the Harmony Corridor Plan and Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines
amendments to allow for a Regional Shopping Center.
GENERAL DIRECTION SOUGHT AND SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED
1. Has staff identified all relevant issues associated with the proposed Regional Shopping
Center on Harmony?
2. Is additional information needed prior to the scheduled hearing on January 17th?
BACKGROUND
The developer,Bayer Properties,has initiated an amendment to the Harmony Corridor Plan and the
Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines, to add a Regional Shopping Center, within the
Mixed-Use Activity Center,in addition to Basic Industrial and Non-Retail Employment as defined
and shown on the Land Use Map. The proposed regional shopping center is approximately 95 acres
and generally located at the northwest corner of Harmony Road and Ziegler Road,behind and west
of the existing LSI Logic building. The property is currently designated in the Harmony Corridor
Plan and Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines for a Lifestyle Shopping Center and/or for
Basic Industrial and Non-Retail Employment uses.
The Harmony Corridor Plan and Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines are elements of the
City's comprehensive plan,known as City Plan. Any proposed changes to these documents require
a Minor Amendment process as described in Appendix C of City Plan, meeting specified criteria
to support the change.
Presently,two existing regional shopping centers are located within Harmony Corridor,one on the
south side of Harmony Road between Boardwalk Drive and Lemay Avenue, and the second on the
northeast corner of College Avenue and Harmony Road. The proposed amendment would allow
for a third regional shopping center.
The primary differences between the previous proposed Lifestyle Center and the current Regional
Shopping Center is in the description and level of detail of the tenant mix and site and building
design, combined with the size of building footprints. A lifestyle center has a predominance of
upscale specialty retail anchored with a few primary tenants in buildings smaller than 110,000
square feet ground floor footprints. A regional shopping center is typically anchored with several
super discount stores with ground floor building footprints of approximately 150,000 - 200,000
square feet in size, with a general description of tenant mix and site features.
January 10, 2006 Page 2
ATTACHMENTS
1. Proposed regional shopping center site and context map.
2. Memorandum to City Council from staff—Summary of additional background information
and analysis of proposed Bayer Plan Amendment, dated December 30, 2005.
3. Memorandum to the Planning and Zoning Board from staff- Impact of the Bayer Retail
Project on the Supply of Employment Land, dated December 6, 2005.
4. Memorandum from EPS, Front Range Village Sales Tax Potentials Analysis—Preliminary
Findings, dated December 7, 2005.
5. Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment, Proposed Front Range Village Regional Shopping
Center Risk Analysis, dated December 30, 2005.
6. Comparison of Lifestyle Shopping Center to Regional Shopping Center dated December 28,
2005.
7. Summary of Comments from Neighborhood and Public Open House Meetings.
8. Copy of the staff Power Point presentation for the Study Session.
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Attachment 2
Community Planning and Environmental Services
Advance Planning Department
City of Fort Collins
MEMORANDUM
TO: Mayor and Members of City Council
FROM: Pete Wray, Senior City Plm
er
THRU: Darin Atteberry, City Manag ok
Greg Byrne, CPES Director, {
6,
Joe Frank, Advance Planning Di r -,
DATE: January 4, 2006
RE: Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment- Additional background
information provided by staff in preparation for the Council Study Session
on January 10"i, 2006.
In response to the proposed regional shopping center by Bayer Properties, staff has
prepared additional background information and reference to the list of attachments as
part of this item for City Council prior to the scheduled Study Session on January 10"',
2006.
Background:
1. Previous Adopted Plans and Analysis
Over the past several years, staff and the public have discussed the need for an additional,
new regional shopping center locating somewhere in Fort Collins. Information obtained
through the City Plan update Market Analysis Report in 2003 shows that there is a
deficiency in the supply of parcels of sufficient size to support a future regional shopping
center in the community. Over the past few years, at least three regional shopping center
developers have approached City staff about locating in Fort Collins. Staff evaluated
available large vacant parcels within the Fort Collins growth management area and
concluded that while there are large parcels near I-25 and Prospect Road and Mulberry
Street/I-25 interchanges, these locations have sig
nificant gmficant and costly infrastructure
improvement needs that prevent development of these parcels from moving forward in
281 North College Avenue • P.O.Box 580 • Fort Collins,CO 80522-0580 • (970)221-6376
FAX(970)224-6111 • TDD(970)224-6002 • E-mail:aplanning@fcgov.com
Memorandum—Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment
January 10, 2006
Page 2
the near future. As a result,the property at the northwest corner of Harmony Road and
Ziegler Drive emerged as the best available site because it has sufficient street capacity,
near an improved interchange and available utilities. Staff is aware of other development
ready sites outside the City's GMA boundary, including the northeast and southeast
corners of I-25 and Harmony Road in Timnath.
In 2003, the developer Bayer Properties proposed a"lifestyle center"on the northwest
comer of Harmony and Zeigler Roads on approximately 80 acres, requiring an
amendment to the Harmony Corridor Plan to allow this type of retail center. In July 2003
Council adopted amendments to the Plan. Since that time,market conditions have
changed, including the development of the Promenade Shops at Centerra Lifestyle Center
and the GGP purchase of Foothills Mall, necessitating Bayer Properties to reconsider the
use of their property. The developers are now proposing a different type of commercial
retail shopping center incorporating a tenant mix including large format retail
establishments, full-line department stores, discount department stores, and mid-size and
smaller retailers and sit-down restaurants.
The difference between the Lifestyle Center and Regional Shopping Center are described
in detail in the Harmony Corridor Design Standards and Guidelines. Both centers can be
basically the same size, with a similar mix of tenants. A Lifestyle Shopping Center is
provided a lengthier and detailed description of extra high levels of finish and types of
stores to set it apart from other types of shopping centers. In addition, a Lifestyle Center
typically includes a predominance of specialty retail, entertainment and enhanced site
features along the store fronts. Also, it has a limit on the size of anchors - 110,000
square feet of ground floor footprint. A Regional Shopping Center has a briefer, more
general description with no limits on footprint size, and typically includes "superstores"
of 140,000—200,000 sq ft. Both centers include smaller anchor stores of 25,000 sq ft or
less.
The proposed regional shopping center is 94 acres in size with approximately 900,000
square feet of retail space, offices and restaurants, including one or more superstores. If
this amendment is approved, the developer intends to submit a Project Development Plan
for a commercial development containing a wide variety of commercial and retail uses.
The surrounding zoning and land uses are as follows:
N: HC/LMN—Harmony Corridor and Low Density Mixed-use Neighborhood; existing
vacant property and English Ranch neighborhood further to north
S: HC—Harmony Corridor; existing commercial/business park
E: HC -Harmony Corridor; existing Hewlett-Packard business
W: LMN—Low Density Mixed-use Neighborhood; existing Harmony Mobile Home
Park
The existing City Structure Plan Map shows Commercial land use designation for the
proposed regional shopping center located on the northwest comer of Harmony Road and
Memorandum—Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment
January 10, 2006
Page 3
Ziegler Drive. An amendment to the City Structure Plan Map is not needed as the
proposed regional shopping center is consistent with the land use designation.
The existing Zoning Map shows this location as Harmony Corridor District zoning
classification. The proposed regional shopping center is consistent with this zoning and
will not require an amendment to the Zoning Map.
2. Assessment of Impacts on Employment Land Use Inventory:
In 2003, Economic &Planning Systems (EPS)prepared a report, "Lifestyle Center
Economic Impact Analysis",which examined the supply of employment land in response
to Bayer's proposed lifestyle center at Harmony and Ziegler. The report concluded that
there was "an adequate supply of primary employment lands available in the City for
economic development purposes." Based on the City's Buildable Lands Inventory, it
identified 2,500 acres of undeveloped land in the HC, E and I Zone Districts. It also
identified 30 undeveloped sites over 30 acres in size for future large employers to
consider. Finally, the report suggested that the City continue to monitor this land supply
to determine if additional primary employment land is necessary.
In November 2005, staff re-evaluated the Buildable Lands Inventory P to update
information relating to available employment lands. The previous conclusion that there
is an adequate supply of primary employment lands is still valid today. Relatively little
land has been converted to non-employment uses and the vacant land supply remains
robust. Since 2003, approximately 106 acres converted from employment to other uses.
There are over 2,300 acres of vacant land in the zone districts that would accommodate
the bulk of primary jobs, representing over 25,000 potential new jobs. However, there
are still many sites that could accept large and small primary employers.
Vacant employment land has attracted many requests for conversion to non-employment
uses. If the City is to retain an adequate supply and attract primary employers, it needs to
carefully assess the benefits and drawbacks of those requests. Staff concludes that the
proposed Plan amendment request by Bayer results in a minimal loss in employment land
supply.
3. Sales Tax Analysis:
In response to the proposed Front Range Village shopping center by Bayer Properties, the
City retained Economic &Planning Systems (EPS) to conduct a study of the sales tax
impact. The analysis focused on potential sales tax impacts including trade area profile,
market implications, and land use considerations.
If the proposed 900,000 square foot Front Range Village was completed, EPS estimates
the project would generate $264 million in annual retail sales and $63.3 million in net
Memorandum—Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment
January 10, 2006
Page 4
new sales to the City. These net new sales would generate an estimated$1.9 million in
net new sales tax revenues per year at buildout.
EPS has estimated a more likely realistic phase of development by Bayer could be
550,000 square feet of proposed space. With this size development is estimated to
generate$171.9 million in annual retail sales and $44.3 million in net new sales to the
City or 25.8 percent of the total. These net new sales would generate an estimated $1.3
million in net new sales tax revenues per year at buildout (between 5 —7 years).
By comparison, the previously evaluated 500,000 square foot lifestyle center proposal
was estimated to generate $100 to $190 million in annual sales with a total of$42.5 to
$80.8 net new sales, and $1.3 to $2.4 million in net new sales tax revenues. While the
estimated size of the proposed two types of shopping centers is close to the same, the net
new sales tax revenue is higher for the lifestyle center, and due largely to the
predominance of high-end retail associated with this type of shopping center and
projected sales.
Market competition factors for this project are more immediate than estimated sales tax
revenues. The Fort Collins trade area will be reduced by the Centerra project and other
future regional retail centers outside the City's border. If Fort Collins is to compete with
new regional retail locations outside of the City, it will need to develop new regional
retail locations within its borders. If Timnath develops a retail project east of I-25 in
place of the Bayer project, the loss of estimated retail sales, approximately$32.8 million,
will result in a loss of$935,000 in retail sales tax revenue to the City.
4. Risk Analysis:
City staff has prepared additional information in the form of a risk analysis to assess
tradeoffs of potential outcomes if the Bayer project is approved. Several risks were
identified depending on the percentage of development completed on the site in the
future. The focus is more on how the project may impact the immediate property and
surrounding existing and future commercial center locations within the Growth
Management Area.
Staff has assessed this site on Harmony is the most development ready location to
accommodate a regional shopping center. Regional competition outside the GMA in the
near future could lead to retail tenants selecting other preferred locations resulting in the
City losing a share of new retail trade. Taken as a whole with the other analysis, the risks
identified in approving a regional shopping center for this location and potential
development project, are not significant enough to change staff s recommendation to
support the Plan amendment.
5. Public Process:
Memorandum—Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment
January 10, 2006
Page 5
The process to amend the Harmony Corridor Plan has included opportunity for citizen
review and comment including a City-hosted neighborhood meeting and public open
house held on November 30,2005. In addition, information about the proposed
amendment has been published on the City's Web site and covered in the local news
media.
6. Plan Amendment Review Criteria:
City Plan allows for amendments through a Minor Amendment process as outlined in
Appendix C, outlining two review criteria.
A. The City Plan and/or any related element thereof are in need of the
proposed amendment.
The following findings justify the need for an amendment:
• Market information indicates the demand for a new regional shopping center
somewhere in Fort Collins, and preferably near the I-25 Corridor. This site
best meets this need.
• The developer's plans to include stores greater than 110,000 square feet
necessitate a change in shopping center designation.
B. The proposed plan amendment will promote the public welfare and will be
consistent with the vision, goals,principles and policies of City Plan and the
elements thereof.
The following findings support these criteria:
• This subject parcel is development ready to accommodate a large regional
shopping center with existing utilities and other available street infrastructure
and an improved interchange sized to handle additional traffic impacts.
• From an economic health perspective (jobs, sales and property taxes, etc), the
amendment to allow a regional shopping center is in the City's best interest.
The recently adopted Council Policy Agenda states the need to "Aggressively
pursue activities to enhance the health of our local retail economy, including
business retention and new retail development" (highlight added). Council
has identified this goal as amongst the"most urgent".
• The parcel is an infill location within easy access to existing and future homes
and businesses. Other potential locations, including but not limited to the
Timnath site, are not as well located and would force residents of our
community to travel longer distances to shop and do business.
• The Minor Amendment is consistent with City Plan Goals for land use to
assist in maintaining a compact pattern, encouraging development inside
municipal boundaries and utilizing existing infrastructure.
7. Findings of Fact/Conclusion:
Memorandum—Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment
January 10, 2006
Page 6
In evaluating the request to amend the Harmony Corridor Plan and Harmony Corridor
Standards and Guidelines, staff makes the following findings of fact:
A. The request for the Plan Amendment meets the criteria of Minor Amendment
Procedures as outlined in Appendix C of City Plan. The request for the Plan
Amendment is in need of a change, promotes the public welfare, and is consistent
with City Plan vision, goals and policies.
B. The request for the Plan Amendment is consistent with the City Structure Plan
Map with a commercial designation.
Recommendation:
1. The Planning and Zoning Board on December 8, 2005 voted(3-1) to recommend
to City Council approval of the Minor Plan Amendment to amend the Harmony
Corridor Plan and Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines Land Use Map,
along with the following additional amendments:
Standards and Guidelines Definition of Regional Shopping Center:
A. Increase the size of a Regional Shopping Center from (30 — 70
acres) to (30— 100 acres). The Bayer proposal is described as 94
acres. This change will allow the larger size center.
B. Permitted uses: Change residential use to (Mixed-Use Dwellings).
Mixed-use dwellings are included in the definition for a Lifestyle
Center. The Board concluded that within a shopping center, the
intent is to not have stand alone multi-family residential. Rather,
the inclusion of an option for residential in mixed-use buildings,
either horizontally or vertical with ground floor retail or office and
living units to the side or above.
C. General Definition: Change - "no more than 3 Big Box
stores". The current definition states"generally 1-2 anchor
stores". The Board concluded adding a standard to provide a clear
range of large super stores to not exceed three stores.
2. Staff recommendation Council Approve the Ordinance of the Minor Plan
Amendment and the first additional amendment(A)recommended by the Board
above.
Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines
Memorandum—Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment
January 10, 2006
Page 7
A. Increase the size of a Regional Shopping Center from (30—70
acres) to (30— 100 acres). The Bayer proposal is described as 94
acres. This change will allow the larger size center.
3. In response to the other recommended amendments by the Planning and Zoning
Board, staff agrees with the Board. However, these amendments will potentially
impact other property owners along Harmony Corridor and staff will need
additional time to notify them as part of this process. As a result, staff is seeking
direction from Council, if they agree, to bring the following amendments back to
be considered:
A. Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines:
Standard: add—"No more than 3 Big Box Stores in Center".
B. Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines:
Standard: add "Mixed-Use Dwellings"to allowed use in center.
Attachment 3
Community Planning and Environmental Services
Advance Planning Department
City of Fort Collins
Memorandum
TO: Planning and Zoning Board
FROM: Timothy Wilder, City Planner .
THRU: Gregory Byrne, CPES Directorf
Joe Frank, Advance Planning Director
DATE: December 6, 2005
RE: Impact of the Bayer Retail Project on the Supply of Employment Land
Summary
The proposed retail project at Harmony and Zeigler would be located on 94 acres of land that is
zoned HC—Harmony Corridor and currently designated for a Lifestyle Center or non-retail
employment uses. Staff has determined that in order for this project to move forward, the first
step is to amend the Harmony Corridor Plan to allow for a regional shopping center.
This memo examines the supply of buildable employment land and the impact of the proposed
retail project on the potential future supply of jobs. In 2003, Economic Planning Systems (EPS)
prepared a report, "Lifestyle Center Economic Impact Analysis", which examined the supply of
employment land in response to Bayer's proposed lifestyle center at Harmony and Zeigler. The
report concluded that there was "an adequate supply of primary employment lands available in
the City for economic development purposes." Based on the City's Buildable Lands Inventory,
it identified 2,500 acres of undeveloped land in the HC, E and I zone districts. It also identified
30 undeveloped sites over 10 acres in size. Finally, the report suggested that the city continue to
monitor this land supply to determine if additional primary employment land is necessary.
The conclusion that there is an adequate supply of primary employment lands is still valid today.
Relatively little land has been converted to non-employment uses and the vacant land supply
remains robust. There are over 2,300 acres of vacant land in the zone districts that would
accommodate the bulk of primary jobs, representing over 25,000 potential new jobs. The
removal of 94 acres would reduce the employment build-out by a year or two. However, there
are still many sites that could accept large and small primary employers.
Vacant employment land has attracted many requests for conversion to non-employment uses. If
the City is to retain an adequate supply and attract primary employers, it needs to carefully assess
the benefits and drawbacks of those requests. Staff concludes that the Harmony Rd/Zeigler
request results in a minimal loss in employment land supply.
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Vacant Employment Land Supply Analysis
Employment land is defined here as lands in the E-Employment, HC-Harmony Corridor, and I-
Industrial zone districts. These are the zone districts that accommodate the majority of primary
jobs, while other non-residential zone districts are mostly oriented to non-primary retail and
service jobs.
Compared to 2003, the supply of employment land is only slightly less (see Table 1). There
were three factors that resulted in the loss or gain of vacant land since then. First, in 2004, 106
acres of employment land were dowazoned to residential uses. The two projects were:
o Trailhead Annexation, residential project, 89 acres.
o Oakridge Business Park, Continuing Care Senior Campus,modification to allow more
than 25% secondary uses, 17 acres.
Table 1: Vacant Lands Inventory
Zone Acres Potential Jobs %of Total
Employment 838 11,000 33%
Harmony Corridor 583 9,100 27%
Industrial 921 5,200 15%
Subtotal 2,342 25,300 75%
All Other Districts 817 8,355 25%
Grand Total 3,159 33,655 100%
Second, several small parcels were developed for employment uses in 2003 and 2004.
Third, staff changed the way buildable lands were identified. Prior to 2004,vacant lands under
entitlement were removed from the BLI. However, this produced an artificially low yield of
jobs because the future jobs within these entitlements were not captured elsewhere. Today,the
BLI includes any vacant non-residential property whether entitled or not in order to estimate all
potential future jobs.
The future jobs supply will most likely be boosted through redevelopment and increased
employment on the Foothills Campus. While it is impossible to predict how many new jobs will
be produced, EPS estimated approximately 5,000 new jobs generated through redevelopment.
Also, CSU expects to add 280 employees by 2009.
If redevelopment estimates are added to potential jobs from vacant lands (33,655), the total
supply of jobs is 39,048. The estimated build-out year based on a demand for 138,535 jobs in
2025 (source: EPS) would be around 2022 (see Table 2).
Table 2: Comparison of Job Supply to Demand
Existing supply Future supply Total Supply 2025 Demand Capacity of Buildout Year
(Vacant+ (Existing+ (EPS Existing GMA
Redev.) Future) Projection) (Supply—
Demand)
93.288 39,048 132,336 138,535 -6,200 2022
Table 3 shows vacant employment land under entitlement. The majority of the entitlements have
occurred in the Harmony Corridor district(193 acres). The largest entitlements include the PVH
Harmony Campus (95 acres) and Harmony School Shops (13 acres). In addition, approximately
24 acres of vacant HC land is under development review.
Table 3: Vacant Employment Land Under Entitlement
Zone Gross Vacant Entitled Net Vacant
Employment 838 3 932
Harmony Corridor 583 193 390
Industrial 921 25 896
Total 2,342 221 2,121
Certain factors reduce the job yield of vacant lands. Constrained land, including floodplains and
natural features constitute 647 acres (28%) of all vacant employment lands. Some of this land is
partially developable and some of it may be fully developable if these constraints are mitigated
or removed. In addition, 25% of the Employment and Harmony Corridor land is typically used
for secondary, retail or residential uses.
Table 4 below shows the available supply if constrained land, secondary uses, and the Bayer site
were netted out. A conservative scenario shows a net employment land supply of 1,362 acres.
The BLI accounts for these vacant land reductions in its estimates of potential future jobs. Of
course the job yield of vacant land is likely to be higher if constrained land is mitigated or
secondary uses occupy less than 25% of the available supply.
Table 4: Reductions to Employment Land
Zone Vacant Constrained 25%Secondary Uses Bayer Available to
Acres (unconstrained land only) Proposal Development
Ernployment 838 201 158 n/a 479
Harmony 583 65 81 94 343
Corridor
Industrial 921 381 n/a n/a 540
Total 2,113 647 239 94 1,362
273 acres of the net vacant HC land is within the Harmony Technology Park ODP (anchored by
the Celestica Building on Harmony Road). The majority of vacant Employment land (448 acres
or 54%) is owned by Anheuser-Busch. Eight of the 22 parcels over 5 acres are owned by A-B.
Table 5 and 6 show the acreage available with sites over 5 and 10 acres in size within each of the
listed zones.
Table 5: Vacant Employment Parcels Greater than 5 Acres in Size
Zone Parcel Count Acres Mean Size(Acres)
Harmony Corridor 18 496 28
Employment 22 739 34
Industrial 30 823 27
Total 70 2,058 29
3
Table 6: Vacant Employment Parcels Greater than 10 Acres in Size
Zone Parcel Count Acres Mean Size(Acres)
Harmony Corridor 12 458 38
Employment 15 699 47
Industrial 21 765 36
Total 48 1,922 29
Compared with 2003,there are 4 fewer sites now over 10 acres in size and 158 fewer vacant
acres.
A Harmony Corridor Plan change from employment to retail would result in the replacement of
future primary jobs with retail jobs. The 2003 EPS report estimated that 2,614 high tech jobs
would be replaced by 1,713 retail jobs if the lifestyle center covered 90 acres. These figures are
likely to be similar with the proposed 94-acre regional shopping center. The high-tech jobs
represent 29%of the current job supply in the Harmony Corridor and 8% of the overall supply.
Thus, according to EPS, 900 fewer jobs are likely to result and on average pay much less.
The EPS report stated, "The City retains plenty of large employment land potential, even with
the removal of the entire 140 acre Harmony Road site." It explained that 35 companies the size
of LSI Logic(12 acres and 325 employees)could still be accommodated in the HC vacant land
inventory. Today, if the 94 acres were removed from the BLI, then there would still be I 1 sites
greater than 12 acres in size on a total of 353 acres. This could accommodate 29 companies
equal to the size of LSI Logic.
4
Attachment 4
EcOn0mic &
Planning Systems
Real Estate Emromvs
Regional Economics
Public Finance
Land Use Policy
MEMORANDUM
To: Greg Byrne,Joe Frank,and Pete Wray
From: Dan Guimond and Josh Birks
Subject: Front Range Village Sales Tax Potentials Analysis-Preliminary Findings
Date: December 7,2005
This memorandum summarizes Economic&Planning Systems (EPS) preliminary
evaluation of the retail development potentials,sales tax revenues,and economic and
market impacts associated with the proposed Front Range Village Project at Harmony
Road and Corbett Drive in Fort Collins,Colorado. Front Range Village is proposed by
Bayer Properties as a major power center anchored by a super center and home
improvement center with approximately 900,000 square feet of total development at
buildout. The information is presented in the following sections:
• Executive Summary
• Trade Area Profile
• Proposed Development Program
• Market Flexibility and Timing
• Sales Projections and Capture
• Land Use Considerations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The proposed Front Range Village is a 900,000 square foot power center anchored by
two large format stores, a super center estimated at 225,000 square feet and a home
improvement center estimated at 140,000 square feet.The developer, Bayer Properties
also shows as potential tenants a 97,400 square foot department store,60,000 square foot
"anchor store',30,000 square foot bookstore,five additional"junior anchors" averaging
40,000 square feet each,150,900 square feet of shops,40,000 square feet in outparcel
space, and a 15,000 square foot drug store. Based on sales per square foot estimates from
Bayer Properties' consultant,the Front Range Village total development program is
estimated to generate$391 million in annual sales,$270 million in net new sales per year
(86.7 percent),and$7.9 million in net new sales taxes per year at buildout.
aENVER BE R K E LEY SP CR AM E N T 0
November 28,2005
Page 2
Although the proposed 900,000 square foot development program could be
accommodated on the 90-acre site,there are questions about the feasibility of certain
project elements including the department store,anchor store, the amount of shop space,
and the type of development on outparcels. It is very unlikely that all of this space is
feasible, at least in the short run. EPS has estimated a more likely realistic phase of
development including an estimated 550,000 square feet of proposed space comprised of
the super center,home improvement center,four mid boxes,and the remainder in small
stores and outparcels.
If the proposed 900,000 square foot Front Range Village was completed EPS estimates
the project would generate$264 million in annual retail sales and$63.6 million in net
new sales to the City or 24.1 percent of the total. These net new sales would generate an
estimated$1.9 million in net new sales tax revenues per year at buildout. An estimate of
retail sales growth between 2005 and 2010 suggests that it would take approximately ten
years to absorb 900,000 square feet of regional retail at the Bayer site.
The 550,000 Phase I development program evaluated by EPS is estimated to generate
$171.9 million in annual retail sales and$44.3 million in net new sales to the City or 25.8
percent of the total. These net new sales would generate an estimated$1.3 million in net
new sales tax revenues per year at buildout. By comparison,the previously evaluated
500,000 square foot lifestyle center proposal was estimated to generate$190 million in
annual sales with 43 percent net new sales,and$2.4 million in net new sales tax
revenues. The Phase I development program is estimated to fully absorb in 5 to 7 years.
The market competition factors for this project are more immediate and compelling than
the estimated sales tax revenues. The Fort Collins retail trade area draw will he reduced
by the Centerra project as well as other future regional retail centers outside the City's
border. If Fort Collins is to maintain its place as the regional core and compete with new
regional retail locations outside of the City,it will need to develop new regional retail
locations within its borders. Although the Bayer site may not be optimum,it is the only
viable site for a major regional retail node currently available within the City.
The most significant current regional retail proposal outside the City is located at the
northeast corner of 1-25 and Harmony in the Town of Timnath. The site is controlled by
Goldberg Properties, Inc,an experienced power center developer in Denver. The 90
acres site includes a 60 acre reservoir on the northern section and 30 acres of developable
land facing Harmony Road. Based on an estimated development program of 275,000
square feet the project will either increase outflow retails sales or decrease retail inflow
sales reducing retail sales within Fort Collins by an estimated$32.8 million. The loss of
these estimated retail sales will result in a loss of an estimated$935,000 in retail sales tax
revenue to the City.
The Goldberg project,located less than 2 miles from the Bayer property,will likely be
pursuing many of the same tenants and therefore compete directly with the subject
property. If Bayer has the ability to attract at least two of the potential large format
retailers, it may have the ability to preclude the development of the Goldberg property,
75859M72-07.Ao,
November 28,2005
Page 3
at least in the short run. Because the Goldberg project has a superior location,it is likely
to develop in the long run even if the Bayer project moves forward.
The continued growth and expansion of other regional shopping centers will impact the
existing retail districts within Fort Collins. However,these shopping districts,such as
South College and Foothills Mall,will continue to play a role within the larger region.
South College may experience a drop in inflow of retail sales and tenant turnover but
will remain a strong retail location supported by population and income growth. In
addition,there is an opportunity for Foot Hills Mall to become a more upscale regional
center unique in the region.
TRADE AREA PROFILE
This section reviews the Fort Collins regional trade area characteristics including trade
area definition, population and income,total personal income, and retail competition.
TRADE AREA DEFINITION
Retail businesses derive their sales from local area residents, residents of the larger
region, and visitors,including both tourists and business travelers. The Urban Land
Institute(ULI) defines a trade area as the geographic area from which a retail facility
consistently draws most(the majority)of its customers. The actual boundaries of the
trade area are arbitrary and based on logical jurisdictional and geographic boundaries.
All sales are accounted for as either from within the trade area or from outside. Retail
sales from within the trade area are defined as local capture, and sales from outside the
trade area are considered retail inflow. Retail expenditures by trade area residents in
other locations are considered retail outflow or leakage.
Based on the existing distribution of sales,the primary trade area for regional retail
goods is defined as the City of Fort Collins. The primary trade area includes several
major existing regional retail locations such as the Foothills Mall on College Avenue
north of Horsetooth, additional discount department stores and power centers north and
south of the Mall on College,and the historic central business district.
These retail centers attract a significant portion of their sales from the larger region
oriented to Fort Collins for major commercial services. A secondary trade area was
therefore defined including the remainder of Larimer County,Weld County,Colorado,
and Laramie County, Wyoming. The secondary trade area includes several
communities that have reached a size to support their own regional retail centers
(Cheyenne,Greeley, and Loveland),reducing the Fort Collins regional draw. However,
residents from these communities still shop in Fort Collins for retailers not present in
their own communities.
75859M72-09,d,,
November 28,2005
Page 4
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
Population and households within the City of Fort Collins grew rapidly between 1990
and 2000 by 2.9 percent annually. Growth tapered off between 2000 and 2005,while the
population and number of households grew by approximately 1.3 percent annually,
reaching 127,000,as shown in Table 1. Household size remained constant throughout
the time period.
Household incomes grew more rapidly during the 15 years between 1990 and 2005. The
average household income increased by 96 percent from$34,000 annually in 1990 to
$67,000 in 2005. Incomes grew rapidly during the 1990s at an average annual rate of 5.0
percent. Similar to population and household growth,income growth slowed between
2000 and 2005 to 3.8 percent annually.
Households earning over$75,000 increased rapidly between 1990 and 2000 at an average
annual rate of 15.9 percent. Between 2000 and 2005 growth among households at or
above$75,000 remained strong at a rate of 7.2 percent annually. As a result,households
earning over$75,000 account for 32 percent of total households in 2005,up from 8
percent in 1990.
15859M72-07.do,
November 28, 2005
Page 5
Table 1
Primary Trade Area Demographics
Front Range Village Sales Analysis
Primary Trade Area Avg.Annual Growth
Characteristic 1990 2000 2005 1990-2000 2000-2005
Demographics
Population 89,555 118,652 126,879 2.9% 1.3%
Households 34,328 45,882 49,196 2.9% 1.4%
Household Size 2.6 2.6 2.6
Income
Household Median $26,941 $44,518 $51,991 5.2% 3.2%
Household Average $34,268 $56,037 $67,385 5.0% 3.8%
Per Capita $13,380 $22,133 $26,529 5.2% 3.7%
Income Distribution
Less than$10,000 6,150 3,903 3,619 -4.4% -1.5%
$10,000 to $29,999 12,467 11,306 10,327 -1.0% -1.8%
$30,000 to $49,999 8,158 10,232 9,824 2.3% -0.8%
$50,000 to $74,999 5,047 9,031 9,444 6.0% 0.9%
$75,000 to$99,999 1,569 5,614 6,454 13.6% 2.8%
$100,000 to $149,999 743 3,826 6,477 17.8% 11.1%
$150,000 or more 271 1,857 3,051 21.2% 10.4%
Total 34,405 45,769 49,196
Source:Claritas;Economic&Planning Systems
HA15e59-Fon Collins Re mml Retail Amly iMDala\i15859d g.Asjk Colins
The population and number of households within the secondary trade area grew rapidly
between 1990 and 2005 at a rate of 2.7 percent annually, as shown in Table 2. The total
population of the secondary trade area reached 451,000 in 2005. Households increased
rapidly at a rate of 2.7 percent as well. The average household size remained constant
throughout the 15-year period at 2.7 persons per household.
Similar to the primary trade area,the secondary trade area average household income
grew significantly between 1990 and 2005 by a total of 94 percent. In addition,households
earning$75,000 and more increased in share of total households. In 2005, these
households account for 30 percent of the total compared to 6 percent in 1990.
15959M12-09Aar
November 28, 2005
Page 6
Table 2
Secondary Trade Area Demographics
Front Range Village Sales Analysis
Primary Trade Area Avg.Annual Growth
Characteristic 1990 2000 2005 1990-2000 2000-2005
Demographics
Population 301,539 395,375 450,946 2.7% 2.7%
Households 111,703 146,451 166,937 2.7% 2.7%
Household Size 2.7 2.7 2.7
Income
Household Median $27,713 $44,907 $51,916 4.9% 2.9%
Household Average $34,011 $56,120 $66,109 5.1% 3.3%
Per Capita $12,873 $21,380 $25,055 5.2% 3.2%
Income Distribution
Less than $10,000 15,870 9,828 9,980 -4.7% 0.3%
$10,000 to$29,999 43,861 35,488 33,903 -2.1% -0.9%
$30,000 to$49,999 30,413 36,346 36,456 1.8% 0.1%
$50,000 to$74,999 15,373 32,462 36,747 7.8% 2.5%
$75,000to$99,999 3,940 16,590 21,691 15Z% 5.5%
$100,000 to $149,999 1,660 10,558 19,217 20.3% 12.7%
$150,000 or more 923 5.316 88.943 19.1% 11.0%
Total 112,040 146,588 166,937
Source:Claritas;Economic&Planning Systems
H:\15859-Fort Collins Regional Retail Anal aisZaW\[15859 nog.bs]5eo ,Y TA
TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME
Total personal income (TPI)is calculated by multiplying the number of households
within a trade area by the average household income. The TPI within the primary trade
area grew by 5.2 percent annually between 2000 and 2005 to$3.3 billion. During the
same time period the TPI within the secondary trade area grew by 6.1 percent annually
to$11.0 billion. The combined total personal income of the primary and secondary trade
area totaled$14.4 billion in 2005,as shown in Table 3.
15,559M 32-0 U0,
November 28, 2005
Page 7
Table 3
Total Personal Income
Front Range Village Sales Analysis
Avg.Ann.
2000 2005 Increase
City of Ft.Collins(Primary Trade Area)
Households 45,882 49,196 1.4%
Average HH Income $56,037 $67,385 3.8%
Subtotal Income($000s) $2,571,090 $3,315,072 5.2%
Secondary Trade Area'
Households 146,451 166,937 2.7%
Average HH Income $56,120 $66,109 3.3%
Subtotal Income($000s) $8,218,830 $11,036,038 6.1%
Total Personal Income($000s) $10,789,920 $14,351,111 5.9%
Lanmer County,CO excluding FL Collins;Weld County,CO;and Laramie County,WY
Source:Clantas;Economic 8 Planning Systems
H11585&Fort W*ns Regional RMII An31y:~els\[15859-IOFIw,.x%"l-mminM
PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
Bayer Properties has proposed the development of a major commercial shopping center
development anchored by two large format stores,a super center estimated at 225,000
square feet(e.g.,Super Target,Super Wal-Mart),and a home improvement center
estimated at 140,000 square feet(e.g.,Lowe's,Home Depot). The preliminary
development program includes approximately 900,000 square feet of total development
at buildout, as shown in Table 4.
Although no leases have been signed, the developer is reportedly courting big box
anchor tenants. The attraction of these major tenants could in turn attract a range of
smaller mid box national mass merchandisers in the electronics,books and music,home
furnishings, office supplies,and sporting goods store categories. A number of stores not
already present in the Fort Collins market, such as Brookstone (electronics),Pottery Bam
(home furnishings),and Borders Books appear to be supportable in the Fort Collins market
and therefore could be candidates for this site. There may also be the potential for
second store locations for a more limited group of tenants.
The developer has listed these stores as junior anchors and estimates six such stores
(including the bookstore) in the development program shown in Table 4,with a total of
176,000 square feet of space. The development program also includes 150,900 square feet
of shops (presumed to be smaller specialty stores),40,000 square feet of outparcels
(presumed to be primarily restaurants and fast food establishments),and a 15,000 square
foot drug store.
15859M12-07.dnr
November 28,2005
Page 8
Based on sales per square foot estimates from Bayer Properties' consultant,the Front
Range Village total development program is estimated to generate$311 million in
annual sales at buildout and$270 million in net new sales per year, which is 86.7 percent
of the total. If these sales levels were to be achieved,it would result in$7.9 million in net
new sales tax returns per year to the City.
Table 4
Front Range Village(Harmony Road Site)
Fort Collins Regional Retail Analysis
Sales Tax Sales I New Sales
Retail Store Rate Size SgFt Total Sales Percent New New Sales Tax Revenue
Large-Format Retailers
Dept.Store 3.00% 97,400 $250 $24,350,000 100.00% $24,350,000 $730,500
Super Center
Grocery 2.25% 60,000 $400 $24,000,000 60.00% $14,400,000 $324,000
General Merchandise 3.00% 165 000000 $400 $66,000,000 60.00% $39,600,000 $1,188,000
Subtotal 225,000 $90,000,000 $54,000,000 $1,512,000
Home Improvement 3.00% 140.000 $425 $59,500,000 100.00% $59,500,000 $1,785,000
Total 462,400 $173,850,000 $137,850,000 $4,027,500
Midaox Retailers
Anchor Store 3.00% 60,000 $250 $15,000,000 100.00% $16,000,000 $450,000
Book Store 3,00% 18,000 $350 $6,300,000 100.00% $6,300,000 $189,000
Jr.Anchor 3.00% 30,000 $225 $6,750,000 100.00% $6,750,000 $202,500
Jr.Anchor 3.00% 30,000 $200 $6,000,000 50.00% $3,000,000 $90,000
Jr.Anchor 3.00% 30,000 $275 $8,250,000 100.00% $8,250,000 $247,500
Jr.Anchor 3.00% 30,000 $250 $7,500,000 100.00% $7,500,000 $225,000
Jr.Anchor 3.00% 38 000 $400 $15,200,000 100.00% $15,200,000 $456,000
Total 236,000 $65,000,000 $62,000,000 $1,860,000
Ancillary
Shops 3.00% 150,900 $275 $41,497,500 100.00% $41,497,500 $1,244,925
Outparcels lease(3) 3.00% 21,000 $450 $9,450,000 75.00% $7.087,500 $212,625
Outparcels sale(2) 3.0% 19,000 $500 $9,500,000 100.00% $9.500,000 $285,000
Drugstore IN% 15000 $800 $12,000,000 100.00% $12,000,000 $360,000
Total 205,900 $72,447,500 $70,085,000 $2,102,550
Total/Average 904,300 $344 $311,297,500 86.71% $269,935,000 $7,990,050
Source:Sayer;Emekal ventures
N]1m5sFm Coffins aamnm F tau m,mre.WdWgI5959.age,Pmwnv.W.IB,n,a Wmd sis
15859M22-07.Anc
November 28,2005
Page 9
MARKET FEASIBILITY AND TIMING
Although the proposed program could be accommodated on the 90-acre site, there are a
number of feasibility and timing issues to be considered. There are also questions about
the market supportability of a number of project elements, including:
• Department Store-The project has a 97,400 square foot department store in the
development program. The one department store previously signing a letter of
intent for this site (when it was a lifestyle center project)is considering another site.
It is also unlikely that other department stores will commit to this shopping center
format, at least in the current market.
• Anchor Store-The program includes a 60,000 square foot anchor store. The likely
anchors will he the super center and home improvement center,and secondarily the mid
boxes (junior anchors). It is unclear what additional anchor tenant store is anticipated.
• Shops-The project has an estimated 150,900 square feet of small shop space. This is
a large amount for a power center format which is typically dominated by mid and
large boxes with a much smaller amount of small store space.
• Outparcels-There is 40,000 square feet of outparcel space shown,generating retail
sales of$450 to$500 per square foot. These sales numbers are associated with major
chain and fast food restaurants. It is likely that a portion of this peripheral space will
be non-retail office and service uses, which do not generate retail sales.
It is very unlikely that all of this space is feasible,at least in the short run. EPS has
estimated a more likely realistic phase of development including an estimated 550,000
square feet of proposed space comprised of the super center,home improvement center,
four mid boxes,and the remainder in small stores and outparcels. This assumed Phase I
development program is used in the sales projection below. Bayer Properties should be
requested to provide their estimated Phase I development program before final City review.
SALES PROJECTION AND CAPTURE
This section estimates the retail sales inflows and outflows within the City of Fort
Collins. First, the existing expenditure patterns of Fort Collins residents are estimated,
specifically the amount of retail purchases made by store category within the trade area
and outside the primary trade area. The portion of purchases not made locally is retail
outflow or leakage. Second,the distribution of primary trade area retail store sales is
estimated. Retail sales are separated into sales to local residents (local expenditures) and
inflow from residents outside the primary trade area as well as visitors.
15859M12-07A,,
November 28,2005
Page 10
In addition,this section summarizes the resultant sales tax revenues associated with the
proposed Front Range Village project. The proposed power center anchored by a super
center will bring additional retail space to Fort Collins. However,the goods provided
by these retailers will not always be unique or new to Fort Collins. Thus, only a portion
of the sales from these stores will net new sales.
SALES FLOW ANALYSIS
The inflow/outflow analysis of existing sales as of 2004 identifies leakage in three key
store categories: Department Stores and Other General Merchandise with an estimated
20 percent leakage,Furniture and Home Furnishings with an estimated 40 percent
leakage,and Building Material and Garden stores with an estimated 25 percent leakage,
as shown in Table 5 and further described below:
• Department Stores-Although there are existing mid-market department stores
(including JC Penney,Sears,and Foley's),the largest gap is the absence of high-end
department stores (e.g.,Neiman Marcus,Saks,and Nordstrom). The majority of the
department store leakage flows out to F1atIron Crossing Mall,Cherry Creek,and
other Denver metro area shopping centers.
• Home Furnishings-In percentage terms, this store category has the largest leakage
of all shoppers goods category stores. This is partially due to the fact that while
some of the large furniture chains have local stores,many of the specialized home
furnishings stores have not moved in(including Restoration Hardware,Pottery
Barn,Williams Sonoma,and Crate&Barrel). Another factor is that, given the lack of
store options,a greater proportion of purchases for these goods is being made locally
in other store categories,in particular discount department stores.
• Home Improvement/Garden-This retail category is increasingly dominated by
Home Depot,Lowe's,and to a lesser extent The Great Indoors. Fort Collins had one
Home Depot in 2004 with a second store opening in 2005. Some of the leakage
shown is likely attributable to the fact that Home Depot is the only major store in the
local market.
The local expenditures from Table 5 are shown as sales to residents with the remainder
comprised of inflow from residents of the secondary trade area or visitors. An estimated
65 percent of store sales overall are to local residents with an estimated 35 percent
inflow. The greatest levels of inflow are in General Merchandise,Other Shoppers
Goods,and Eating and Drinking,as shown. The distribution of existing Fort Collins
retail sales is shown in Table 6.
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Page 13
SALES FORECAST AND SALES TAX REVENUE
The proposed Front Range Village would be a project of regional significance with the
potential(depending on the store mix) to reduce retail leakage and to increase retail
sales inflows. How much net new sales the center will generate-as opposed to
transfers of sales from existing stores-will be based on the specific store mix and
whether these stores are new to the market area and/or provide a unique product line
or shopping experience not already present.
The impacts of the proposed new power center have been estimated in order to
determine the level of new sales that will occur at the regional shopping center. Two
scenarios have been modeled the project as proposed by Bayer properties and an
estimated first phase of development.
Scenario A: Bayer Proposal
The estimated reductions in existing expenditure outflows and retail sales inflow
increases are shown in Table 7 and are based on the proposed 904,000 square foot
development program presented by Bayer. The major impacts are discussed below:
• The grocery portion of the super center store is not expected to reduce existing
resident sales outflow within the Supermarkets/Grocery store category but may
result in modest increases in retail inflow sales by 15 percent. The general
merchandise portion of a new super center is also not expected to reduce General
Merchandise sales outflow, given the existing presence of all the major discounters
in the City. The super center attraction may modestly increase retail inflow sales in
the same category by 10 percent if it is a store not already present in the City.
• A new proposed drugstore is not estimated to reduce outflow within the Health and
Personal Care store category, given the number of drugstores already present. A
new drug store at this location could increase inflow by 10 percent due to the site's
location on the edge of the City and its access to the growing population in the
Windsor area.
• The inclusion of a home improvement center not already present in the market could
result in an estimated reduction of 15 percent of outflow of Building and Garden
sales and an increase in inflow sales by 20 percent.
• In the Other Shoppers Goods store categories,the potential for new mass
merchandisers (mid box stores) would have the effect of reducing outflow sales and
increasing inflow. What is yet to be determined is the actual store mix. A new
bookstore, regardless of the specific chain,is not likely to generate new sales.
However, a number of the home furnishings stores not already present could have
an impact. The sheer number of new stores could have the affect of drawing
consumers to this location over others within the larger region. The analysis
estimates that there would be a 10 percent reduction in Other Shoppers Goods
outflow and a 10 percent increase in inflow.
15859M12.07A,o
November 28,2005
Page 14
• Given the number of existing restaurant options in the market, the proposed
restaurants are not expected to reduce the outflow sales within this category but
could increase inflow sales by 5 percent.
Based on the potential new sales outlined below,Front Range Village is estimated to
generate$264 million in total retail sales and$63.6 million,or 24.1 percent net new sales.
These net new sales would generate an estimated$1.9 million in net new sales tax
revenue,as shown in Table 8.
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Page 16
Table 8
Fort Collins Retail Sales by Store Type—Bayer Proposal
Fort Collins Regional Retail Analysis
Proposed Development Estimated Net New
Sales Tax Sales I Net New Percent Sales Tax
Retail Store Rate Size SgFt Total Sales Sales Net New Revenue
Supermarkets/Grocery
Supercenter 2.25% 60,000 $400 $24,000,000 $4,598,101 19.2% $103,457
Health and Personal Care
Drugstore 3.00% 15,000 $700 $10.500,000 $147,248 1.4% 54,417
General Merchandise
Department Store 3.00% 97,400 $250 $24,350,000 $6,864,022 28.2% $205,921
Supercenter 3.00% 165000000 $300 549.500.000 $11,800,686 23_8% 354021
Total 262,400 $73,850,000 $18,664,709 25.3% $559,941
Other Shopper's Goods
Anchor Store 60,000 $250 $15,000,000 -- - ---
Book Store 18,000 $300 $5,400,000 -- -- ---
Jr.Anchor 30,000 $250 $7,500,000 --
Jr.Anchor 30,000 $250 $7,500,000 -- -- ---
Jr.Anchor 30,000 $250 $7,500,000 — -- --
Jr.Anchor 30,000 $250 $7,500.000 -- -- --
Jr.Anchor 38,000 $250 $9,500,000 — -- --
Shops 150 900900 $250 $37.725.000 — --- ---
Total 3.00% 386,900 $97,625,000 $23,471,349 24.0% $704,140
Eating and Drinking
Outparcels lease(3) 21,000 $400 58,400,000 — -- --
Outparcels sale(2) 19 000 $400 L7 600y00 -- - -
Total 3.00% 40,000 $16,000,000 $9,764,731 61.0% $292,942
Building Material 8 Garden
Home Improvement 3,00% 140,000 $300 $42,000,000 $7,000,035 16.7% $210,001
Total/Average 904,300 $292 $263,975,000 $63,646,172 24.1% $1,874,899
Source:Bayer,Eureka'Ventures;Economic a Planning Systems
H:1158WO Collins R,.ndl Re it AmlysaNb of Ill5658,$C 1.1201,zIseale,Net New Saks Eat
Using the potential sales generated by the adjustments in outflow and inflow discussed
above,the net new sales by store category are summarized below:
• The grocery sales from the super center will result in an estimated 19.2 percent net
new sales or$4.6 million. The General Merchandise sales from the super center are
estimated to result in 23.8 percent net new sales or$11.8 million.
• A new drugstore will generate 1.4 percent net new sales or$147,000 in new sales.
• The array of new mass merchandisers(junior anchors)will generate$23.5 million in
net new sales,which is 24 percent of total projected sales of($97.6 million).
].5859M12-07.Anr
November 28, 2005
Page 17
• The proposed home improvement store is estimated to generate$7.0 million in net
new sales or 16.7 percent of projected sales ($42.0 million).
• The largest percentage of net new sales is estimated to occur in the Eating and
Drinking store category with an estimated 61.0 percent of projected sales ($16.0
million) or$9.8 million.
In summary, the estimated$1.9 million in net new sales tax revenues is the estimated
total expected from a 904,000 square foot power center anchored by two new large
format stores not already present in the City as well as a large component of additional
mid box mass merchandisers and smaller store space. Based on the information
provided to date,there is no assurance that this development program is feasible.
There is also no assurance as to the timing of the project and when this level of revenues
would accrue to the City.
Scenario B: Estimated Phase I
An estimated first phase of development is analyzed below. These numbers can be
refined if the developer provides a more specific development program. It is unrealistic
to try to predict the impacts of a later phase of development at this time.
The estimated reductions in existing expenditure outflows and retail sales inflow
increases are shown in Table 9 and are based on the estimated 550,000 square foot
development program for Phase I. The major analysis points are
summarized below:
• The existing expenditure outflows and retail sales inflow adjustments used for the
super center in the proposed 904,000 square foot project remain the same for this
scenario,both in the grocery and general merchandise categories.
• The same outflow and inflow assumptions used for the drugstore above apply to
this scenario.
• The inclusion of a home improvement center not already present in the market could
result in an estimated reduction of 15 percent of outflow of Building and Garden
sales and an increase in inflow sales by 20 percent.
• In the Other Shoppers Goods store categories,the potential for new mass
merchandisers(mid box stores)would have the effect of reducing outflow sales and
increasing inflow. What is yet to be determined is the actual store mix. A new
bookstore,regardless of the specific chain,is not likely to generate new sales.
However, a number of the home furnishings stores not already present could have
an impact. The analysis estimates that there would be a 10 percent reduction in
Other Shoppers Goods outflow and a 5 percent increase in inflow.
15859M12-07,dn�
November 28,2005
Page 18
• Given the number of existing restaurant options in the market,the proposed
restaurants are not expected to reduce the outflow sales within this category but
could increase inflow sales by 5 percent.
Based on the potential new sales outlined below, a first phase of is estimated to generate
$171.9 million in total retail sales and$44.3 million, or 25.8 percent net new sales. These
net new sales would generate an estimated$1.3 million in net new sales tax revenue, as
shown in Table 10.
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November 28,2005
Page 20
Table 10
Fort Collins Retail Sales by Store Type
Fort Collins Regional Retail Analysis
Proposed Development Estimated Net New
Sales Tax Sales I Net New Percent Sales Tax
Retail Store Rate Size SgFt Total Sales Sales Net New Revenue
SupermarketslGrocery
Supercenter 2.25% 60,000 S400 $24,000,000 $4,598,101 19.2% $103,457
Health and Personal Care
Drugstore 3.00% 15,000 $700 $10,500,000 $147,248 1.4% $4,417
General Merchandise
Department Store 3.o0% 0 $250 $0 -- -- —
Supercenter 3,00% 165 000000 $300 $49,500,000 -- -- --
Total 165,000 $49,500,000 $13,546.295 27.4% $406,389
Other Shopper's Goods
Anchor Store 0 $250 $0 -- -- ---
Book Store 18,000 $300 $5,400,000
Jr.Anchor 30,000 $250 $7,500,000 -- -- —
Jr.Anchor 30,000 $250 $7,500,000 -- --- --
Jr.Anchor 30,000 $250 $7,500,000 — -- ---
Jr.Anchor 0 $250 $0 — — ---
Jr.Anchor 0 $250 $0 -- -- --
Shops 40 000 $250 $10,000,000 -- -- ---
Total 3.00% 148,000 $37,900,000 $14,160,674 37.4% $424,820
Eating and Drinking
Outparcels lease(3) 10,500 $400 $4,200,000 — -- ---
Outparcels sale(2) 9�00 $400 $3,800,000 -- -- --
Total 3.00% 20,000 $8,000,000 $4,882,365 61.0% $146,471
Building Material&Garden
Home Improvement 3.00% 140,000 $300 $42,000,000 $7,000.035 16.7% $210,001
Total/Average 548,000 $314 $171,900,000 $44,334,719 25.8% $1,295,556
Source.Bayer;Eureka!ventures;Economic&Planning Systems
H11585 00 WHIM Reglw l Wall AnaIWISMCO W[15059-10FlW1201.z6]EPSW Ncx Saks Est
Using the potential sales generated by the adjustments in outflow and inflow discussed
above,the net new sales by store category are summarized below:
• The grocery sales from the super center will result in an estimated 19.2 percent net
new sales or$4.6 million. The General Merchandise sales from the super center are
estimated to result in 27.4 percent net new sales or$13.5 million.
• A new drugstore will generate 1.4 percent net new sales or$147,000 in new sales.
• The array of new mass merchandisers (junior anchors)will generate$14.2 million in
net new sales,which is 37.4 percent of total projected sales of($37.9 million). This
level of new sales capture would require the store mix to be largely stores not
already present in the market,so it is certainly a best case optimistic scenario.
15859M 12-07.&
November 28,2005
Page 21
• The proposed home improvement store is estimated to generate$7.0 million in net
new sales or 16.7 percent of projected sales ($42.0 million).
• The second largest percentage of net new sales is estimated to occur in the Eating
and Drinking store category with an estimated 61.0 percent of projected sales ($8.0
million) or$4.8 million.
In summary,the estimated$1.3 million in net new sales tax revenues is the estimated
total expected from a 550,000 square foot power center anchored by two new large
format stores not already present in the City as well as a large component of additional
mid box mass merchandisers and smaller store space.
For comparison purposes, the net sales tax revenues estimated for the lifestyle center
previously proposed by Bayer Properties is compared to the current development
project in Table 11 below. A 500,000 square foot Bayer lifestyle center was projected to
generate$190.0 million in annual sales with 43 percent net new sales resulting in an
estimated$2.4 million in net new sales tax revenues to the City. The current power
center project Phase I estimated development program of 548,000 square feet is
estimated to generate$171.9 million in annual sales,26 percent net new, resulting in an
estimated$1.3 million in net new sales taxes.
75959M12-07..doc
November 28,2005
Page 22
Table 11
Fort Collins Retail Sales Comparison: Power vs. Lifestyle Center
Fort Collins Regional Retail Analysis
Factor Lifestyle Center Power Center
Total Square Feet 500,000 548,000
Total Retail Sales 190,000,000 171,900,000
Av. Sales Per Sq. Ft. 380 314
Net new Sales 80,800,000 44,300,000
Percent Net New 43% 26%
Source:Economic 8 Planning Systems.
M'.\15B59-Fart Collins Regional ReOd Anagss% o0 s\I15e5g-Centet Comparisonsxisi5rieetl
ABSORPTION OF NEW SPACE
EPS also estimated what period of time would be required to absorb the additional
increment of retail space proposed. Based on the household forecasts for the 2005 to
2010 time period described earlier and 1 percent real income growth,retail sales are
estimated to increase to$1.54 billion from$1.38 billion, an increase of approximately
$162.5 million, as shown in Table 9. These net new sales have been distributed between
four major retail categories:convenience goods,shopper's goods,eating and drinking,
and building material and garden.
Overall,the$162.5 million in net new retail sales would not cover the proposed 904,000
square foot development,which requires an estimated$264 million in new sales. The
estimated retail sales growth would only account for an estimated 62 percent of the
required sales (assuming that the proposed development absorbs all the retail sales
growth within the City over the next five years). It is highly unlikely that the proposed
project will be the only retail development to occur in the next five years. Given other
retail development and the significant gap between required sales and retail sales
growth, it would likely take over ten years for the 904,000 square foot proposed
development to absorb.
The estimated Phase I development program with 550,000 square feet would require
$171.9 million in new sales. The estimated retail sales growth would account for an
estimated 95 percent of the required sales (assuming Phase I absorbs all the retail sales
growth within the City over the next five years). Phase I will most likely not be the only
retail development to occur over the next five years. Therefore,Phase I will most likely
require between five and seven years to fully absorb. Although optimistic, the estimated
Phase I development has the benefit of being market feasible in a reasonable time frame.
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November 28,2005
Page 24
LAND USE CONSIDERATIONS
The initial decision to be addressed by the City is the rezoning of the property to allow
for the power center development. The existing zoning is specific to the lifestyle center
previously proposed by Bayer Properties. The market and economic factors affecting
this land use decision are summarized below.
REGIONAL RETAIL DEMAND
Currently,most regional retail uses are concentrated in the College Avenue corridor. As
the City,and more importantly as the retail trade area grows,there will be market
opportunities to develop additional regional retail locations. The most significant new
retail location in the region is the Centerra project in Loveland,which currently has a
new Lowe's improvement center and lifestyle center as well as an existing Target store
and outlet mall. Additional power center retail uses are also expected at Centerra in the
near future.
If Fort Collins is to successfully compete with regional retail locations outside of the
City,it will need to develop new regional locations within its borders. Although the
Bayer site may not be optimum,it is the only viable site for a major regional retail node
currently available in the City. From the economic perspective of more retails sales tax
capture, the zoning change to allow for the power center may be in the City's best
interests. This factor however will need to be balanced against other competing policy
objectives,including the preservation of land for employment uses.
IMPACTS OF TIMNATH RETAIL DEVELOPMENT
The City of Fort Collins retail trade area will also be impacted by the development of
other proposed regional retail centers outside the City's border. The most significant
current proposal is located at the northeast corner of I-25 and Harmony in the Town of
Timnath. This site is controlled by Goldberg Properties,an experienced power center
developer based in Denver. From a regional access perspective, the Goldberg site has
some advantages with its proximity to I-25.
The 90 acre site includes a 60 acre reservoir on the northern section. The remaining 30
acres will be split into four parcels for retail development. One of the parcels will be
large enough to accommodate a large-format retailer. For purposes of this analysis we
assumed that the site would develop at between a 0.20 or 0.25 floor area ratio (FAR).
The results would be between 260,000 and 327,000 square feet of commercial retail
space.
The proposed Goldberg-Flatirons retail development would be a project of regional
significance with the potential (depending on store mix)to increase retail leakage from
the City of Fort Collins and to decrease retail sales inflows. How much sales loss will
15859MI2-07.Anc
December 2,2005
Page 25
occur will be based on the specific store mix and whether these stores are new to the
market area and/or provide a unique product line or shopping experience not already
present.
The impacts a power center anchored by a supercenter would have to the City of Fort
Collins have been approximated using a hypothetical development program. The
development program includes a 200,000 square foot supercenter(140,000 square feet of
general merchandise and 60,000 square feet of grocery)and three junior anchor stores of
approximately 25,000 square feet each,as shown in Table 12.
Table 12
Goldberg& Flatirons Development Program
Sales Tax Impacts of Timnath Retail
Characteristic Factor
Site Description
Size 30 Acres
Retail Space(Low) 0.2 FAR 261,360 sgft
Retail Space(High) 0.25 FAR 326,700 sqft
Development Program
Supercenter 200,000
Junior Anchor(3) 25,000 sgft 75,000
Total 275,000
Source:Town of Timnath;Economic&Planning Systems
H:\15559-Fort Collins Regional Retail Analysis\Moeels\[15559-IOFlml2g1 xIS]Tianath Dev Fag
The estimated increases in existing expenditure outflows and retail sales inflow
reductions are shown in Table 13 and are based on the estimated 275,000 square foot
development program for the site. The major analysis points are summarized below:
• The grocery portion of the supercenter is expected to result in a modest increase in
resident sales outflow (5 percent)within the Supermarket/Grocery store category
and reduce retail inflow sales by 20 percent.
• The general merchandise portion of a new supercenter is expected to increase
resident sales outflow by only 5 percent within the General Merchandise store
category,due to the attraction of the supercenter. The supercenter will decrease the
retail inflow sales by a modest 10 percent, given the presence of additional
discounters within the City. The supercenter will intercept consumers who would
have traveled into Fort Collins for equivalent merchandise.
• The additional junior anchors (mid-boxes)will have a modest impact on resident
outflow sales and retail inflow sales. The City of Fort Collins already contains most
of the typical junior anchor tenants. Thus,the bulk of the sales to these retailers will
come from the power center's ability to intercept consumers heading to Fort Collins.
15859M12-07 dor
December 2,2005
Page 26
However,with only four retailers,not all trips to Fort Collins will be precluded by
the development of this site.
Based on the potential new sales outlined below, the Goldberg-Flatirons site is estimated
to generate$84.8 million in total retail sales and$32.8 million,or 38.7 percent will come
from Fort Collins residents. These sales would generate an estimated$935,000 in sales
tax revenue losses, as shown in Table 14.
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November 28,2005
Page 29
IMPACTS ON EXISTING RETAIL DISTRICTS
The demographics suggest that the Fort Collins region is poised for retail expansion. It's
not a matter of when or which of retailers will enter the market but where they will
choose to locate. Most of retail tenants prefer a regional shopping center location that is
central and has the ability to attract consumers from all over the trade area. The City of
Fort Collins provides a central location for retailers.
The continued growth and expansion of other regional shopping centers will impact the
existing retail district within Fort Collins. However, these shopping districts,such as
South College and Foothills Mall will continue to play a role within the larger region.
The existing retail tenants on South College will continue to support the surrounding
neighborhoods. The addition of new regional shopping centers elsewhere within the
trade area will not diminish the importance of South College to Fort Collins. The district
will probably see a drop in inflow of retail sales,and will likely see some turnover in
tenants as can be expected from any increase in competition. However,South College
should remain a strong retail location and growth in incomes and population
surrounding the district will,over time,replace the initial losses.
There is an opportunity for Foothills Mall to become a more upscale regional center
unique in the region and to play a similar role in the Fort Collins trade area that Cherry
Creek plays within the Denver metro area or F1atlrons Crossing Mall plays in the
Boulder quadrant. New high-end lifestyle tenants will help solidify Foothills Mall as a
major regional shopping center unique within the trade area that will attract shoppers
from the entire region.
15859M12-07d..
Attachment 5
Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment
Proposed Front Range Village Regional Shopping Center
Risk Analysis
December 30, 2005
Introduction:
This analysis is in response to the proposed Front Range Village Project, located on the
northwest comer of Harmony and Ziegler Roads by the developer Bayer Properties. The
proposed retail development is on 94 acres and approximately 900,000 square feet in
size, including potentially two"big-box" stores larger than 110,000 square feet.
As a result, these two super center stores would require an amendment to the Harmony
Corridor Plan and Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines to allow a regional
shopping center at this specific location.
The primary purpose in conducting this analysis is to provide a response to questions
raised by the citizens during public meetings and staff discussions relating to concerns of
potential outcomes of an approval of the Plan amendment, or subsequent development
project.
Risk Analysis:
City staff has prepared several scenarios and potential associated risks (what can go
wrong?)to understand the expected consequences for each scenario. A summary of this
analysis is provided in the staff agenda item to supplement other additional information
staff has provided prior to a final decision on the Plan Amendment. Information
including economic analysis, potential sales tax impact and land use considerations are
included in the Memorandum from Economic &Planning Systems (EPS) dated
December 7, 2005 and is not part of this analysis.
The following scenarios were identified:
Scenario 1
Bayer Properties proceeds with a project development plan after Plan Amendment
approval and completes construction of the entire retail center.
Potential Risks
A. The Bayer project development may preclude other sites within Harmony
Corridor from being supported for a future shopping center.
Risk Analysis
Page 2
Presently the Harmony Corridor Land Use Plan has two existing regional shopping
centers. This site has a previously approved mixed-use activity center designation that
would allow a third large shopping center, described as a"Lifestyle Center". Will the
City consider adding a fourth activity center setting the stage for another shopping
center? Staff will have to assess future requests individually in determining maintaining
an appropriate balance of primary employment and commercial uses along the corridor.
To date, Kechter Road has been the eastern edge of locations for mixed-use activity
center designations along Harmony Road.
B. Other commercial properties in GMA along I-25, large enough to support
a regional shopping center,may be courting the same retail tenants as
Bayer.
These other commercial properties (primarily adjacent to Mulberry and Prospect/I-25
Interchanges) will not be development ready with available infrastructure for at least 5
years. Successful development of the Bayer site will likely delay retail development at
other large sites at the interchanges, which would also likely delay private funding to
improve them. If one of these properties comes forward to develop at a later time, other
retail tenants may be available. Staff has assessed there are other sites in the GMA
suitable for large retail tenants.
C. New Center by Bayer may force closure of existing stores (same retailer),
or similar retailers in other locations in the City.
The continued growth and expansion of other regional shopping centers will impact the
existing retail districts within Fort Collins. However, these shopping districts, such as
South College Avenue and Foothills Mall, will continue to play a role within the larger
region. According to EPS analysis, South College may experience a drop in inflow of
retail sales and tenant turnover but will remain a strong retail location supported by
population and income growth. The City has already experienced closure of existing
stores such as Shopko. The market over time should provide opportunities for new retail
tenants to "back-fill' existing vacant stores. In addition, there is an opportunity for
Foothills Mall to become a more upscale regional center unique in the region.
D. New "big-box" stores in Bayer shopping center go vacant in future.
Bayer has stated they will be in control of the entire shopping center and maintain a
vested interest in the overall success of the center. If a retailer leaves, the vacant space
would be leased by the developer as quickly as possible.
However, the impact of a large big box tenant closing is far greater and will have a direct
effect on attracting shoppers to the remaining tenants in the Center.
E. Employment option at this location is lost.
Risk Analysis
Page 3
This is a risk. However, the City Council was willing to acknowledge this outcome in
2003 with the approval of a Plan amendment to allow a Mixed-Use Activity Center and
potential"Lifestyle Shopping Center" at this location. In addition, staff has assessed the
inventory of vacant developable lands within the GMA and concluded there is sufficient
supply of employment lands for the next 15 —20 years.
Scenario 2
After Plan Amendment approval, only a portion of the project proves to be feasible for
development in the short to mid-term.
Potential Risks
A. Remaining site sits undeveloped with lost potential for establishing full
regional shopping center.
This is a potential real outcome staff is concerned about. The Planning and Zoning Board
discussed an option to add language in the definition outlining a phasing plan where other
portions of the center need to be built prior to completing additional large retail buildings,
which typically are built first. Staff will continue to assess if this change could be
incorporated into the Plan, or address in a future development agreement with the
developer.
B. Infrastructure is not completed such as streets, lighting, storm drainage,
and utilities.
Depending on the assessed impacts of the initial phase of development, only those
infrastructure improvements needed to serve that phase will be required. With additional
phases, the remaining infrastructure improvements will then be completed.
Residents living in the English Ranch neighborhood expressed strong concerns about
future local street connections and impacts of traffic through neighborhood. In reviewing
the concept plan for the proposed shopping center, future local street connections
between the neighborhood and shopping center would not be built until the vacant
property develops to the north. A more detailed traffic impact analysis will follow if a
development project is submitted.
Scenario 3
After Plan Amendment approval, Bayer Properties decides to sell property to another
developer.
Potential Risks
A. Site may not get developed for many years.
Risk Analysis
Page 4
This is a risk, but one that is out of our control. It might be mitigated to some degree by
placing a time limit on the land use designation, and requiring the project to proceed to
retain the regional retail overlay.
B. Potential concept by Bayer is changed by new developers and earlier
expectations of community are affected as well.
In 2003, with the approval for a Lifestyle Center, the community and adjoining
neighborhoods formulated expectations for a particular type of commercial shopping
center. Presently, Bayer is proposing a different type of retail center. They are
describing it as potentially a mix of discount retailers and some small tenants. If the
property is sold to another new developer, these earlier expectations of a quality project
could be impacted.
With any proposed development, staff will review the project for compliance with our
adopted design and development standards. From an architectural and site planning
standpoint, any project being developed should result in a quality design. However, we
do not have control of which tenants locate in a shopping center.
Scenario 4
After Plan Amendment approval,nothing happens on site for several years, staying
vacant.
Potential Risks
A. Loss of potential net new sales tax revenues.
The site is vacant presently. Eventually, the developable property will move forward
with a future project and can develop either as a commercial center, or as employment
and some limited secondary uses. Potential sales tax revenue estimates are included in
the EPS analysis.
B. Other properties within Harmony Corridor may not be considered for a
future retail center.
One option to consider is to place a time limitation on the Plan amendment. This would
retain the option to consider another location for a larger retail center on the Corridor at a
future date. This condition has not been used in the past.
Another option is the City considers new retail center locations along the corridor as
requests come in. Similar to the analysis conducted for this site, staff will assess the pros
and cons and or trade-offs of another location for a mixed-use activity center. A potential
option if another retail center is supported is to consider removing the existing
designation at the Bayer site.
Risk Analysis
Page 5
If demand for new retail in City continues, pressure to develop other sites may increase in
future. If Bayer proceeds with a PDP and gets approval, they will be vested for 3 years
and have secured intersection capacity based on traffic impact assessment for the project.
C. Potential retail tenants targeted for the Bayer site locate outside of GMA
such as in Timmath.
This outcome may happen anyway and is outside the control of the City. This is also true
if the Plan Amendment is not approved and the property sits vacant as a result.
Scenario 5
The Plan Amendment is not approved by Council.
Potential Risks
A. Targeted retailers locate outside if GMA.
The potential development by Goldberg , located less than 2 miles from the Bayer site on
the Timnath side of I-25, will likely be pursuing many of the same tenants and therefore
compete directly with the subject property. If Bayer has the ability to attract at least two
of the potential large format retailers, it may have the ability to preclude the development
of the Goldberg property, at least in the short run. Because the Goldberg project has I-25
frontage, it is likely to develop in the long run even if the Bayer project moves forward.
B. Loss of net new sales tax revenue.
See EPS analysis.
Conclusions:
The Risk Analysis exercise is valuable additional information to be used in making a
decision to amend the Plan. Staff is supporting the proposed amendment and subsequent
project development plan for a regional shopping center based on all of these
deliberations. The associated risks are minimal in allowing a third regional shopping
center within the Harmony Corridor
Attachment 6
Comparison of Shopping Centers
December 30, 2005
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Primary mix of specialty retail stores Wide selection of general
(less than 20,000 sq. ft.) merchandise
No more than 9 stores between 1 —2 anchor stores as principal
20,000 — 50,000 sq. ft. and 2 dept. tenants
stores less than 110,000 sq. ft.
Situated on 40 — 85 acres Located on 30 — 70 acres
Between 200,000 —800,000 sq. ft.GFA Minimum 250,000 sq, ft. GFA
Minimum of 25 independent retail At least 15 independent businesses
Sit-down restaurants, grocery stores, Wide variety of services and
entertainment facilities and theaters recreational facilities
High quality site and building design Discount department stores
Open air setting with buildings fronting
pedestrian network with Central
gathering place
' 3imilar QlhiBc�+�ter
Planned and developed as unit
Serve community and region
Retail stores as inline occupants
Outdoor gathering spaces
Restaurants
Attachment 7
Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment
Summary of Comments from Public Meeting held on November 30th, 2005
Fort Collins Marriott Hotel
Staff gathered citizen comments herd or written during the public meeting held at the Fort Collins
Marriott Hotel on November 30th, 2005. Approximately 120 people attended the combination
neighborhood and open house format public meeting. The following list is a summary of comments
received to date:
1. Overall observation of tone of comments reflected general support for the proposed Plan
Amendment and future project. While concerns were raised about the potential impacts of a
regional shopping center, a majority of citizens at the meeting supported the proposed tenant mix,
new tax revenue benefit for community and recognized the potential threat of outside competition
for the same tenants locating outside of Fort Collins.
2. Specific Comments:
• Neighborhood impacts of proposed project
• Increased traffic on adjacent arterial streets and local streets
• Cut-through traffic through English Ranch Neighborhood on Kingsley Drive
• As an alternative to multiple local street connections to English Ranch Neighborhood,
provide an alternative pedestrian/bike connection in place of street between shopping
center and neighborhood
• Keep on table discussion to incorporate branch library into shopping center
• Improve pedestrian crossing at Corbett Drive/Harmony Road
• Promote local businesses locating in shopping center
• Concerned of loss of Employment land with proposed shopping center
• The market is supportive of this type of retail center and it is better to capture tax revenue
now from a regional shopping center than wait for large employer locating at this location
on Harmony,which is less likely to happen
• We need this type of retail shopping and support the proposed project
• Concerned of safety and impacts of project on neighborhoods including traffic, noise and
visual appearance
Attachment 8
City Council Study Session
January 10, 2005
Items relating to the amendments to the
Harmony Corridor Plan and Harmony
Corridor Standards and Guidelines to
allow a Regional Shopping Center
2003 — Proposed Lifestyle Center
By Bayer Properties
0 500,000 sq. ft. Lifestyle Shopping Center
0 Situated on approximately 80 acres
9 Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment approved by
Council to allow this type of Center
O Mixed-Use Activity Center designation included in
Plan for this location
O Underlying Basic Industrial and Non-Retail Activity
Center still in place
1
2005/06
Proposed Regional Shopping Center
By Bayer Properties
o Location: Northwest corner Harmony/Ziegler
(same location as 2003 proposed Lifestyle Center)
o Size: 900,000 square feet on 94 Acres
o Remaining Property: 40 acres vacant
(between site and English Ranch Neighborhood)
o Existing LSI Logic Building/lot— not part of proposal
(14 acres)
English Ranch
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Harmony Corridor Plan
Intent of Creating Plan (1995)
. One of community's primary entryways and
employment centers
. Establish Primary Employment designation with
other limited supporting secondary uses
. Avoid typical commercial strip of development
(such as South College)
Harmony Corridor Plan
Intent of Creating Plan (1995)
. Focus shopping centers in strategic locations
. Enhance appearance of corridor through quality
design
. Create landscape image along corridor
4
Harmony Corridor Plan
Land Use Concept for Corridor
Establish policy direction for corridor prior to
development:
- Promote the corridor as a high quality business
center
- Provide prime locations for industry and
businesses
• Provide shopping and service areas convenient to
both residents and employees in the corridor
Harmony Corridor Plan
Land Use Concept for Corridor
Establish policy direction for corridor prior to
development:
- Focus commercial uses at major street
intersections
- Community and regional commercial activities
located in well-planned shopping centers
5
Harmony Corridor Plan
Underlying Zoning- H-C
v 75 - 100% Primary Employment
. Firms that produce goods & services for export
outside city
a 0 - 25% Maximum Secondary Employment
. Hotels, motels, sit down restaurants,
neighborhood convenience, shopping centers,
residential
Similar Characteristics Between
Lifestyle and Regional Shopping Centers
® Planned and developed as unit
o Serve community and region
• Retail stores as inline occupants
O Restaurants
o Outdoor gathering spaces
6
Unique Characteristics
Of Lifestyle Center
a Primary mix of specialty retail stores less than 20,000 sq. ft.
o No more than 9 stores between 20,000—50,000 sq.ft.
0 2 department stores less than 110,000 sq. ft.
o Situated on 40—85 acres and between 200,000—800,000 sq.ft.
o Minimum of 25 independent retail stores
o High quality site and building design, central gathering place
a Open air setting with buildings fronting pedestrian network
Unique Characteristics
Regional Shopping Center
0 Wide selection of general merchandise
0 Wide variety of services and recreational facilities
0 1 - 2 anchor stores, which allows over 110,000 sq. ft.
0 Discount department stores
0 Located on 30 - 70 acres
0 At least 15 independent businesses
o Minimum 250,000 sq. ft. GFA
7
Sales Tax Analysis Summary
Conducted by Economic & Planning Systems
Based on estimated 550,000 sq. ft. Center:
O Estimated $171.9 million in annual sales
a, $44.3 million in net new sales
a $1.3 million in net new sales tax revenue
Sales Tax Analysis Summary
Conducted by Economic & Planning Systems
Based on estimated 900,000 sq. ft. Center:
a Estimated $264 million in annual sales
* $63.6 million in net new sales
w $1.9 million in net new sales tax revenue
8
Sales Tax Analysis Summary
Conducted by Economic & Planning Systems
Regional Competition:
P FC retail trade area reduced by Centerra & other future
regional centers
o If FC is to compete, it needs to develop regional retail in
GMA
O If Timnath develops first, will result in loss of $935,000 in
retail sales tax revenue to City
• S. College & Foothills Mall will continue to play role in
region
Impact on Buildable Lands Inventory
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a Minor impact on the supply of vacant employment lands
a 94 Acre retail center site = 16% of HC vacant land
a 2003 (EPS Report) Adequate supply of vacant
employment lands
a Lifestyle Center would support 1,713 retail jobs
a Supply of employment land only slightly less in 2005
than in 2003
a Ample sites over 5 acres in size for primary employment
9
Estimated Employment
on Vacant Lands
Zone Acres Jobs Percent of
Total Jobs
Employment 838 11,000 33%
Harmony Corridor 583 9,100 270/6
Industrial 921 5,200 15%
Subtotal Z342 25,300 75%
All Other Districts 817 8355 25%
Total 3,159 33,655 100%
Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment
Summary of Public Comments
General Comment:
o Broad support
Specific Comments:
o Concerns of impacts on nearby neighborhoods
a Concern of loss of employment lands
10
City Plan
Minor Plan Amendment Criteria
Appendix C
a The City Plan and/or any related element thereof
is in need of the proposed amendment; and
o Will promote the public welfare; and
o Be consistent with the vision, goals and policies of
City Plan and elements thereof.
City Plan
Minor Amendment Criteria
Plan is in need of an amendment:
a Market demand for new regional shopping center
(in City— near 1-25)
O Only site ready for future Regional Shopping Center in
GMA
a Plans include stores greater than 110,000 Sq. Ft.
(ground floor gross floor area)
11
City Plan
Minor Amendment Criteria
Plan Amendment will promote public welfare:
a Promotes economic health
(jobs, sales and property tax revenue etc.)
o Recently adopted Council Policy Agenda Goal:
. "Aggressively pursue activities to enhance the
health of our local economy;
. including business retention and new retail
development'
. Identified as "most urgent" by Council.
City Plan
Minor Amendment Criteria
Be consistent with the vision, goals and policies of
City Plan:
• Site is development ready
o Plan was amended in 2003 to add
"Mixed-Use Activity Center" designation
• Site is an infill location
o Consistent with City Structure Plan and Zoning Maps
o Reflects compact development pattern inside GMA
12
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Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment
Recommendation
Planning and Zoning Board - approval of the
Amendment to include the following items:
• Land Use Map Designation:
Potential Lifestyle Center/Regional Shopping
Center
• Standard: Size between 30 — 100 acres
• Standard: No more than 3 Big Box Stores
- Standard: Mixed-use dwellings in Center
Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment
Recommendation
Staff recommends approval of the Minor Plan
Amendment to include the following items:
• Land Use Map Designation:
Potential Lifestyle Center/Regional Shopping
Center
• Scale: Shall be situated on 30 — 100 acres
14
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HARMONY CORRIDOR PLAN
Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment
Follow-Up Action Items
Staff recommends bringing back to
Council the following Plan Amendment
items:
Standard: No more than 3 Big Box Stores in
Center
Standard: Add Mixed-Use Dwellings could
develop in center
15
City Council Study Session
January 10, 2005
Specific Questions for City Council:
1. Has staff identified all relevant issues?
2. Is additional information needed?
Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment
End of Presentation
16