HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOUNCIL - AGENDA ITEM - 01/17/2006 - FIRST READING OF ORDINANCE NO. 011, 2006 AMENDING ITEM NUMBER: 22
AGENDA ITEM SUMMARY DATE: January 17, 2006
FORT COLLINS CITY COUNCIL STAFF: Pete Wray
SUBJECT
First Reading of Ordinance No. 011, 2006, Amending the Harmony Corridor Plan and The
Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines to Add a "Regional Shopping Center' Designation
in the Mixed-Use Activity Center Located At the Northwest Corner of Harmony Road and
Ziegler Road, and to Revise the Text of the Definition of"Regional Shopping Center'.
RECOMMENDATION
Staff recommends adoption of the Ordinance on First Reading.
On December 8, 2005 the Planning and Zoning Board recommended City Council approval of
the Amendment with three additional changes by a vote of(3-1) in favor.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The new plan amendments include the following:
1. Harmony Corridor Plan
a. Land Use Map - Add "Regional Shopping Center" designation.
2. Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines
a. Land Use Map - Add "Regional Shopping Center" designation.
b. Definition - Increase the size of a Regional Shopping Center from (30 - 70
acres) to (30 - 100) acres.
The developer, Bayer Properties, has initiated an amendment to the Harmony Corridor Plan and
the Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines, to add a Regional Shopping Center, within the
Mixed-Use Activity Center, in addition to Basic Industrial and Non-Retail Employment as
defined and shown on the Land Use Map, at the northwest corner of Harmony Road and Ziegler
Road, behind and west of the existing LSI Logic building. The property is currently designated
in the Harmony Corridor Plan and Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines for a Lifestyle
Shopping Center and/or for Basic Industrial and Non-Retail Employment uses.
The Harmony Corridor Plan and Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines are elements of
the City's comprehensive plan, known as City Plan. Any proposed changes to these documents
require a Minor Amendment process as described in Appendix C of City Plan, meeting specified
criteria to support the change.
January 17, 2006 -2- Item No. 22
Presently, two existing regional shopping centers are located within Harmony Corridor, one on
the south side of Harmony Road between Boardwalk Drive and Lemay Avenue, and the second
on the northeast corner of College Avenue and Harmony Road. The proposed amendment
would allow for a third regional shopping center.
BACKGROUND
Previous Adopted Plans and Analysis
Over the past several years, staff and the public have discussed the need for an additional, new
regional shopping center locating somewhere in Fort Collins. Information obtained through the
City Plan update Market Analysis Report in 2003 shows that there is a deficiency in the supply
of parcels of sufficient size to support a future regional shopping center in the community. Over
the past few years, at least three regional shopping center developers have approached City staff
about locating in Fort Collins. Staff evaluated available large vacant parcels within the Fort
Collins growth management area and concluded that while there are large parcels near I-25 and
Prospect Road and Mulberry Street/I-25 interchanges, these locations have significant and costly
infrastructure improvement needs that prevent development of these parcels from moving
forward in the near future. As a result, the property at the northwest corner of Harmony Road
and Ziegler Road emerged as the best available site because it has sufficient street capacity, near
an improved interchange and available utilities. Staff is aware of other development ready sites
outside the City's GMA boundary, including the northeast and southeast corners of 1-25 and
Harmony Road in Timnath.
In 2003, the developer, Bayer Properties, proposed a "lifestyle center" on the northwest corner of
Harmony and Zeigler Roads on approximately 80 acres, requiring an amendment to the
Harmony Corridor Plan to allow this type of retail center. In July 2003, Council adopted
amendments to the Plan. Since that time, market conditions have changed, including the
development of the Promenade Shops at Centerra Lifestyle Center and the GGP purchase of
Foothills Mall, necessitating Bayer Properties to reconsider the use of their property. The
developers are now proposing a different type of commercial retail shopping center
incorporating a tenant mix including large format retail establishments, full-line department
stores, discount department stores, and mid-size and smaller retailers and sit-down restaurants.
The difference between a Lifestyle Center and Regional Shopping Center are described in detail
in the Harmony Corridor Design Standards and Guidelines. Both centers can be basically the
same size, with a similar mix of tenants. A Lifestyle Shopping Center is provided a lengthier
and detailed description of extra high levels of finish and types of stores to set it apart from other
types of shopping centers. In addition, a Lifestyle Center typically includes a predominance of
specialty retail, entertainment and enhanced site features along the store fronts. Also, it has a
limit on the size of anchors - 110,000 square feet of ground floor footprint. A Regional Shopping
Center has a briefer, more general description with no limits on footprint size, and typically
includes "superstores" of 140,000 — 200,000 sq ft. Both centers include smaller anchor stores of
25,000 sq ft or less.
January 17, 2006 -3- Item No. 22
The zoning and land uses surrounding the area in question are as follows:
N: HC/LMN — Harmony Corridor and Low Density Mixed-use Neighborhood; existing
vacant property and English Ranch neighborhood further to the north
S: HC —Harmony Corridor; existing commercial/business park
E: HC - Harmony Corridor; existing Hewlett-Packard business
W: LMN — Low Density Mixed-use Neighborhood; existing Harmony Mobile Home Park
The existing City Structure Plan Map shows Commercial land use designation on the northwest
corner of Harmony Road and Ziegler Road. An amendment to the City Structure Plan Map
would not be needed to accompany the requested changes to the Harmony Corridor Plan and the
Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines as a regional shopping center is consistent with the
existing land use designation. Similarly, the existing Zoning Map shows this location as
Harmony Corridor District zoning classification. A regional shopping center is consistent with
this zoning and will not require an amendment to the Zoning Map.
Assessment of Impacts on Employment Land Use Inventory:
In 2003, Economic & Planning Systems (EPS) prepared a report, "Lifestyle Center Economic
Impact Analysis", which examined the supply of employment land in response to Bayer's
proposed lifestyle center at Harmony and Ziegler. The report concluded that there was "an
adequate supply of primary employment lands available in the City for economic development
purposes." Based on the City's Buildable Lands Inventory, it identified 2,500 acres of
undeveloped land in the HC, E and 1 Zone Districts. It also identified 30 undeveloped sites over
30 acres in size for future large employers to consider. Finally, the report suggested that the City
continue to monitor this land supply to determine if additional primary employment land is
necessary.
In November 2005, staff re-evaluated the Buildable Lands Inventory to update information
relating to available employment lands. The previous conclusion that there is an adequate
supply of primary employment lands is still valid today. Relatively little land has been
converted to non-employment uses and the vacant land supply remains robust. Since 2003,
approximately 106 acres converted from employment to other uses. There are over 2,300 acres
of vacant land in the zone districts that would accommodate the bulk of primary jobs,
representing over 25,000 potential new jobs. However, there are still many sites that could
accept large and small primary employers.
Vacant employment land has attracted many requests for conversion to non-employment uses. If
the City is to retain an adequate supply and attract primary employers, it needs to carefully
assess the benefits and drawbacks of those requests. Staff concludes that the proposed Plan
amendment request by Bayer would result in a minimal loss in employment land supply.
Sales Tax Analysis:
In response to the proposed Front Range Village shopping center by Bayer Properties, the City
retained Economic & Planning Systems (EPS) to conduct a study of the sales tax impact. The
analysis focused on potential sales tax impacts including trade area profile, market implications,
and land use considerations.
January 17, 2006 -4- Item No. 22
If the proposed 900,000 square foot Front Range Village was completed, EPS estimates that a
project such as Bayer's would generate $264 million in annual retail sales and $63.3 million in
net new sales to the City. These net new sales would generate an estimated $1.9 million in net
new sales tax revenues per year at buildout.
EPS has estimated a more likely realistic development on this site would be 550,000 square feet
of proposed space. With this size development is estimated to generate $171.9 million in annual
retail sales and $44.3 million in net new sales to the City or 25.8 percent of the total. These net
new sales would generate an estimated $1.3 million in net new sales tax revenues per year at
buildout (between 5 — 7 years).
By comparison, the previously evaluated 500,000 square foot lifestyle center proposal was
estimated to generate $100 to $190 million in annual sales with a total of$42.5 to $80.8 net new
sales, and $1.3 to $2.4 million in net new sales tax revenues. While the estimated size of the
proposed two types of shopping centers is close to the same, the net new sales tax revenue would
be higher for a lifestyle center, and due largely to the predominance of high-end retail associated
with this type of shopping center and projected sales.
Market competition factors for this project are more immediate than estimated sales tax
revenues. The Fort Collins trade area will be reduced by the Centerra project and other future
regional retail centers outside the City's border. If Fort Collins is to compete with new regional
retail locations outside of the City, it will need to develop new regional retail locations within its
borders. If Timnath develops a retail project east of 1-25 in place of a regional shopping center
in Fort Collins, the loss of estimated retail sales, approximately $32.8 million, will result in a
loss of$935,000 in retail sales tax revenue to the City.
Risk Analysis:
City staff has prepared additional information in the form of a risk analysis to assess tradeoffs of
potential outcomes if a project such as the Bayer project is approved. Several risks were
identified depending on the percentage of development completed on the site in the future. The
focus is more on how such a project may impact the immediate property and surrounding
existing and future commercial center locations within the Growth Management Area.
Staff has assessed this site on Harmony as the most development ready location to accommodate
a regional shopping center. Regional competition outside the GMA in the near future could lead
to retail tenants selecting other preferred locations resulting in the City losing a share of new
retail trade. Taken as a whole with the other analysis, the risks identified in approving a regional
shopping center for this location and potential development project, are not significant enough to
change staffs recommendation to support the Plan amendment.
Public Process:
The process to amend the Harmony Corridor Plan has included opportunity for citizen review
and comment including a City-hosted neighborhood meeting and public open house held on
November 30, 2005. A second neighborhood meeting is scheduled for January 14, 2006 with
English Ranch residents. In addition, information about the proposed amendment has been
published on the City's Web site and covered in the local news media.
January 17, 2006 -5- Item No. 22
Plan Amendment Review Criteria:
City Plan allows for amendments through a Minor Amendment process as outlined in Appendix
C, outlining two review criteria.
A. The City Plan and/or any related element thereof are in need of the proposed amendment.
The following findings justify u tify the need for an amendment:
• Market information indicates the demand for a new regional shopping
center somewhere in Fort Collins, and preferably near the I-25 Corridor.
This site best meets this need.
• Accommodating stores greater than 110,000 square feet would necessitate
a change in the current shopping center designation.
B. The proposed plan amendment will promote the public welfare and will be consistent
with the vision, goals, principles and policies of City Plan and the elements thereof.
The following findings support these criteria:
• This subject parcel is "development ready" to accommodate a large
regional shopping center with existing utilities and other available street
infrastructure and an improved interchange sized to handle additional
traffic impacts.
• From an economic health perspective (jobs, sales and property taxes, etc),
the amendment to allow a regional shopping center is in the City's best
interest. The recently adopted Council Policy Agenda states the need to
"Aggressively pursue activities to enhance the health of our local retail
economy, including business retention and new retail development"
(highlight added). Council has identified this goal as among the "most
urgent".
• The parcel is an infill location within easy access to existing and future
homes and businesses. Other potential locations, including but not limited
to the Timnatb site, are not as well located and would force residents of
our community to travel longer distances to shop and do business.
• The Minor Amendment is consistent with City Plan Goals for land use to
assist in maintaining a compact pattern, encouraging development inside
municipal boundaries and utilizing existing infrastructure.
Findings of Fact/Conclusion:
In evaluating the request to amend the Harmony Corridor Plan and Harmony Corridor
Standards and Guidelines, staff makes the following findings of fact:
A. The request for the Plan Amendment meets the criteria of Minor Amendment Procedures
as outlined in Appendix C of City Plan. The request for the Plan Amendment promotes
the public welfare, and is consistent with City Plan vision, goals and policies.
January 17, 2006 -6- Item No. 22
B. The request for the Plan Amendment is consistent with the City Structure Plan Map with
a commercial designation.
RECOMMENDATION:
1. The Planning and Zoning Board on December 8, 2005 voted (3-1) to recommend to City
Council approval of the Minor Plan Amendment to amend the Harmony Corridor Plan
and Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines Land Use Map, along with the
following additional amendments:
Standards and Guidelines Definition of Regional Shopping Center:
A. Increase the size of a Regional Shopping Center from (30 — 70 acres) to
(30 — 100 acres). This change will allow a larger shopping center such as
the one proposed by Bayer.
B. Permitted uses: Change residential use to (Mixed-Use Dwellings). Mixed-
use dwellings are included in the definition for a Lifestyle Center. The
Board concluded that within a shopping center, the intent is to not have
stand alone multi-family residential. Rather, the inclusion of an option for
residential in mixed-use buildings, either horizontally or vertical with
ground floor retail or office and living units to the side or above.
C. General Definition: Change - "no more than 3 Big Box stores". The
current definition states "generally 1-2 anchor stores". The Board
concluded adding a standard to provide a clear range of large super stores
to not exceed three stores.
2. Staff recommends Council adopt the Plan Amendments to the following two documents:
1. Harmony Corridor Plan
a. Land Use Map - Add "Regional Shopping Center' designation.
2. Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines
a. Land Use Map - Add "Regional Shopping Center' designation.
b. Definition - Increase the size of a Regional Shopping Center from (30 - 70
acres) to (30 - 100) acres.
3. In response to the other recommended amendments by the Planning and Zoning Board,
staff agrees with the Board. However, these amendments will potentially impact other
property owners along Harmony Corridor and staff will need additional time to notify
them as part of this process. During the Council work session on January 10, 2006, staff
received direction to bring the following amendments back to be considered in the near
future:
A. Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines:
Standard: add—"No more than 3 Big Box Stores in Center".
January 17, 2006 -7- Item No. 22
B. Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines:
Standard: add "Mixed-Use Dwellings" to allowed use in center.
ATTACHMENTS
1. Proposed regional shopping center site and context map.
2. Minutes from the December 8, 2005 Planning and Zoning Board Hearing.
3. Memorandum to the Planning and Zoning Board from staff- Impact of the Bayer Retail
Project on the Supply of Employment Land, dated December 6, 2005.
4. Memorandum from EPS, Front Range Village Sales Tax Potentials Analysis —
Preliminary Findings, dated December 7, 2005.
5. Harmony Corridor Plan Proposed Front Range Village Regional Shopping Center Risk
Analysis, dated December 30, 2005.
6. Comparison of Lifestyle Shopping Center to Regional Shopping Center dated December
28, 2005.
7. Summary of Comments from Neighborhood and Public Open House Meetings.
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ATTACHMENT
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Council Liaison: Karen Weitkunat Staff Liaison: Cameron Gloss
Chairperson: Judy Meyer Phone: (W) 490-2172
Vice Chair: Dave Lingle Phone: (W) 223-1820
Vice Chairperson Lingle called the meeting to order at 6:00 p.m.
Roll Call: Craig, Schmidt, Carpenter, Stockover and Lingle. Chairperson Meyer was
absent.
Staff Present: Gloss, Eckman, Wamhoff, Olt, Shepard, Wray, Frank, Bracke, and
Deines.
Citizen Participation: Troy Jones thanked non-returning members Craig and
Carpenter for their dedication and time on the Board.
Director of Current Planning Cameron Gloss reviewed the Consent and Discussion
Agendas:
Consent Agenda:
1. Minutes of the May 19th, June 16th (Continued), July 21st
(Continued) and September 15th(Continued) , 2005 Planning and
Zoning Board Hearings.
2. Resolution PZ05-13 Easement Dedication.
3. # 33-01 L McClelland's Creek PD & PLD — Annexation and Zoning.
9
Discussion Agenda:
4. #15-05 Shields Street Lofts (515 Shields Street) — Project Development
Plan.
5. #41-05 Timberline Center Rezoning.
6. #41-05A Timberline Center— Project Development Plan.
7. Recommendation to City Council to amend the Land Use Plan
Map in the Harmony Corridor Plan and Harmony Corridor
Standards and Guidelines, Both Elements of City Plan.
Member Schmidt moved to approve the Consent Agenda. Member Carpenter
seconded the motion. The motion was approved 5-0.
DRAFT
Planning and Zoning Board Minutes
December 8, 2005
Page 2
Project: Recommendation to City Council for amendments to
the Land Use Maps in the Harmony Corridor Plan and
Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines
documents to allow for a Regional Shopping Center.
Project Description: Request to amend the Land Use Maps in the
Harmony Corridor Plan and Harmony Corridor
Standards and Guidelines and documents, elements
of City Plan to add a 'Regional Shopping Center"
designation, of approximately 94 acres in size,
generally located on the northwest corner of Harmony
Road and Zeigler Road. The existing zoning is
Harmony Corridor District.
Hearing Testimony, Written Comments and Other Evidence:
Member Carpenter declared a conflict of interest and did not participate in the
discussion.
Pete Wray, Senior Planner gave the staff presentation. He stated the request was in
response to a proposed shopping center at the same location as a proposed Lifestyle
Center in 2003 by the same developer. He stated the property was currently
designated on the Harmony Corridor Plan as a Mixed-Use Activity Center. The
proposal also includes 900,000 s.f. of commercial/retail including a discount super store,
home improvement and other supporting mid-size retailers, restaurants and office uses.
Between the proposed retail center and the neighborhood to the north, English Ranch
there is approximately 40 acres of vacant land that is not part of the proposed shopping
center or plan amendment. On the existing corner, also not part of the shopping center
designation, is the existing LSI building, which is about 14 acres. Planner Wray
reviewed site maps of the area for the Board showing designated areas of the plan.
Planner Wray reported that as part of the proposed shopping center the Harmony
Corridor Plan would need to be amended. Staff would look at City Plan for establishing
the criteria to amend an element of City Plan in which the Harmony Corridor Plan is an
element of. There are two criteria in appendix C of City Plan that describes what needs
to be looked at to justify the change.
E DRAFT
Planning and Zoning Board Minutes
December 8, 2005
Page 3
Is there a need for the proposed amendment?
Our staff assessment has looked over the past several years with the update of City
Plan and with the proposed Lifestyle Center, including support from the Market Analysis
that was part of the Lifestyle Center assessment, that there is a demand for a new
Regional Shopping Center in Fort Collins and that it preferably be located near
Interstate 25. This site is the only one that is ready for development for a future
Regional Shopping Center within our Growth Management Area in that there is existing
infrastructure and utilities in place, arterial street frontage and an improved interchange
at Harmony Road to support this type of large use. The proposed plan for the shopping
center as described by the tenant mix would include a couple of stores greater than
110,000 s.f. of gross floor area that would necessitate a change in the shopping center
designation. With the previous plan amendment to allow for the Lifestyle Shopping
Center, which had a cap of stores no larger than 110,000 s.f. which would be key in
triggering an amendment to allow for this type of shopping center.
Planner Wray showed a map of existing Regional Shopping Centers in the Harmony
Corridor and their sizes. He also stated that there were some other potential large
acreages current) designated for commercial at Mulberry and Interstate 25 on the east
9 Y 9 rY
side and there are some other large parcels that exist on both sides of the Prospect
Interchange that are designated for commercial and zoned. Another potential sight
southeast at Carpenter Road/Highway 392 and Interstate 25, which recently had a
Structure Plan Amendment to look at some land use changes and additional
commercial uses, particularly on the west side. All three locations are not development
ready and would require sufficient infrastructure upgrades, interchange improvements,
in addition to storm drainage and floodplain issues. Outside of the Growth Management
Area there are some other commercial designations associated with the Timnath area,
so there is some potential for a Regional Shopping Center or commercial development
just on the east side of the Interchange.
The other criteria in City Plan looks at promoting the public welfare and is
consistent with the Visions, Goals and Policies of City Plan and the elements
thereof.
Some of the points that staff has assessed is that the site is development ready to
accommodate large retail with the existing street network, infrastructure and
interchange improvements. The Harmony Corridor Plan was amended in 2003 to add a
Mixed-Use Activity Center designation in the Harmony Corridor Plan for this same
location. The new change would allow a change in building size and tenant mix. This
would promote the economic health looking at additional job creation and sales and
property tax revenue. Staff feels that this amendment is in the city's best interest.
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Planning and Zoning Board Minutes
December 8, 2005
Page 4
The recently adopted City Council Policy Agenda goals, in which one states that, "there
is a need to aggressively pursue activities to enhance the health in our local economy
including business retention and new retail development'. This goal is identified as
most urgent. This site is an infill location with close access to existing and future homes
and businesses. Other potential locations including a Timnath site previously
mentioned are not as well located and would force residents in our community to travel
farther for their shopping and business needs. Staff feels that this is consistent with the
existing City Structure Plan and Zoning Maps and there are no changes that are
warranted for those two maps. This reflects a compact development pattern that is
inside our Growth Management Area and efficient use of infrastructure.
Planner Wray displayed the current City Structure Plan Map and explained that along
the Harmony Corridor we have the basic Harmony Corridor designation and a result of
the 2003 Plan amendment, and we have the commercial designation already in place
for this location. Our existing Zoning Map shows the Harmony Corridor zoning
classification so there is no changes that would be needed to our zoning map. Based
on the proposed Front Range Village Retail Center by the developers, Harmony
Corridor Plan and Harmony Corridor Standards and Guideline documents would require
an amendment to allow a Regional Shopping Center within this Mixed-Use Activity
Center designation on the plan for the same location.
Planner Wray displayed the land use Map in the Harmony Corridor Plan, Map 10 in the
Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines which shows the Mixed Use Activity
Center designation already in place and the amendment would include, in addition to
the proposed Lifestyle Shopping Center, the addition of a Regional Shopping Center
designation for that specific location, and that would be the same for both documents.
At the worksession last week, there was a request to provide some background on the
intent of the Harmony Corridor Plan when it was created in 1995. Some of the key
points considered in developing the plan:
• It recognizes this corridor as one of the community's entryways and employment
centers.
• It established the primary employment designation with other limited secondary
uses.
• There was a movement to avoid a typical commercial strip.
• There was a need to focus shopping centers in strategic locations as opposed to
having them along the entire corridor.
• Promote quality design to enhance the appearance of the corridor.
• To create a landscape image along the corridor that set it apart and improve the
aesthetic positive experience as people enter the community.
& ORA"
Planning and Zoning Board Minutes
December 8, 2005
Page 5
In looking at the land use concepts for the corridor the key was to establish policy
direction for the corridor prior to the development. Prior to 1995, there was a lot of
projects coming on line and pressure to develop the corridor, which at that time still had
a lot of predominance of vacant property. There was requests for several shopping
centers trying to locate along the corridor before our Land Use Code update in 1997
and with our LDGS requirements, it could allow development of shopping centers all
along the corridor. This would look at promoting the corridor as a high quality business
center, provide prime locations for industry and businesses and provide shopping and
service areas convenient for both residents and employees in the corridor and focus
commercial uses at major street intersections and in particular, related to this item,
Community and Regional commercial activities located in well planned shopping
centers.
The existing underlying zoning in the Harmony Corridor with the Harmony Corridor
zoning allows for 75% primary employment. This would still be true for this site under
the Mixed-Use Activity Center as talked about for the change to the Lifestyle Center. If
that did not take place we would still have the underlying zoning. This would also allow
for 25% of secondary uses. The 40 acres between this designation and the
neighborhood to the north, we would expect to see this type of development
compliance.
In looking at the difference between the Lifestyle Center that was talked about a couple
of years ago and this new Regional Shopping Center, there are some similarities. The
Lifestyle Center has a predominance of specialty retail stores, a pedestrian design
emphasis within the shopping center, open air setting and something he felt was key
was in addition to the small and mid size and larger anchor stores the maximum of 9
stores of 20,000 to 50,000 s.f. and no more than two department stores no larger than
110,000 s.f. If you compare that to a proposed Regional Shopping Center, you can see
some of the similarities, community and regional attraction, wide selection of general
merchandise, but this does allow for larger users than 110,000 s.f. With the current
proposal there are two potential tenants that would be larger than 110,000 s.f.
Staff looked at the impact on the buildable lands inventory and with the market analysis
we had not only with the City Plan Update in 2004 and the City Plan before that, but
also in 2003 the market analysis concluded that there was sufficient supply of
employment lands even if we took out the 90 or 140 acres at that time for this location
and there were ample sites at that time of 10 acres or larger. With the current review of
the buildable lands inventory, staff acknowledges and concludes with the same
recommendations that came out of the 2003 market analysis that we do still continue to
have sufficient supply of employment lands within our Growth Management Area and
within the Harmony Corridor and we have with our new calculations have added the
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Planning and Zoning Board Minutes
December 8, 2005
Page 6
provision for properties of 5 acres in size in addition to the 10 acres in size analysis that
was done previously.
The estimated Employment on vacant lands within our GMA; staff looked at
Employment, Harmony Corridor and Industrial uses. In the Harmony Corridor there are
approximately 583 acres, which is about 27% of the overall inventory and vacant
parcels greater than 5 acres in size in the Harmony Corridor, there would be 18 acres,
on average of about 28 acres, totaling 496 acres for a comparison in just looking at the
Harmony Corridor. In the Board's packet, there was an additional memo that was
distributed this week that goes into more detail of staff's assessment of the Employment
Lands inventory (Exhibit 1) and staff would be able to answer any additional questions
they have on this.
The summary of public comments; there was a public meeting on November 30`h, a
combination neighborhood meeting and open house at the Marriott. There was over
100 people who attended the public meeting. Staffs observation of the comments at
that meeting was overall general support for the plan amendment and the potential new
Regional Shopping Center at this location. Some of the comments from the public
meeting emails and phone calls since then, and from our web site and letters; again
there was general support for the amendment. Those included potentially including a
Branch Library in this center, promoting local businesses located in the center and
another comment was to capture the market for this kind of retail center now as
opposed to waiting for potential large employers locating here in the future. There were
concerns about the immediate impacts on the nearby neighborhoods including traffic
congestion within the general area, particularly along Ziegler and Harmony Corridor and
with the local street network within this area in the neighborhoods, and in particular
English Ranch is concerned with cut-through traffic through the neighborhood, in
addition noise and safety issues. There were also concerns with impacts of the
shopping center with truck loading and potential concerns about impacts on property
values within the area. There were also concerns about loss of employment lands in
general and providing alternatives to additional street connections into the English
Ranch and the possibility of looking at some pedestrian connections.
Planner Wray reported that staff is continuing to maintain a listening log as this item
goes forward and there is a verbatim capture of all public comments that is available
and will be put on Advance Planning's web site shortly.
In looking at the findings of fact for the plan amendment and staff recommendation, staff
feels that this request meets the criteria of the minor amendment procedures as outlined
in City Plan for the plan amendment to the Harmony Corridor Plan and Harmony
Corridor Standards and Guidelines in that there was a need for this change and does
promote the public welfare and is consistent with City Plan Visions, Goals and Policies.
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This request is also consistent with the city Structure Plan Map and our current zoning.
Staff recommendation is approval of this minor plan amendment to amend the Harmony
Corridor Plan and Standards and Guidelines document to allow a Regional Shopping
Center.
David Silverstein, Principal at Bayer Properties Incorporated, located in Birmingham
Alabama gave the applicant's presentation. Mr. Silverstein gave a background of
information stating that they first came here four years ago and acknowledged Fort
Collin's quality of life blended with a great cultural base. As they look to invest in
communities throughout the country, those are key ingredients. What led them to Fort
Collins is that they believe that Fort Collins' consumer is somewhat underserved, having
to travel distances to shop and there is a need to capture retail sales tax dollars in Fort
Collins.
Mr. Silverstein addressed why the Lifestyle Center was not built. He stood before the
Planning and Zoning Board four years ago and made the commitment that they were
not speculators, that if they were to turn the first spade of mother earth on this site that it
would be because the project was well designed, well leased and would meet their
expectations as much as the Board's. For a number of reasons, they did not feel
comfortable to begin that project. As everyone well knows, the city of Loveland was
very aggressive with the Centerra project. They rapidly moved through the zoning of
that site and put forth a public/private partnership, which he believes many today still
scrutinize. It took them a little over a year to work with the city of Fort Collins in
amending the Harmony Corridor Plan, approving a development plan, while they were
galloping forward, so retailers were wondering if they would ever get their project off of
the ground.
General Growth buys the Foothills Mall during this whole time, which also had an impact
on decisions of other retailers coming into their project. General Growth is a very large,
publicly traded reat (sp?), they have a huge portfolio and they have a lot of relationships
with retailers and so it impacted their ability to negotiate some transactions with
retailers. Their mission from day one was to not displace the Mall. The Foothills Mall
needs some attention. It has served the community well for a number of years, but
someone needs to come in and invest the dollars needed to upgrade the mall and he
would hope that it would be General Growth. They have always felt that the community
was large enough to support other quality retail.
They were here today because they did not feel like they could pull the rip cord and
open a project that was not fully leased. He has driven by the Loveland project, it is
there and they will deal with that issue, but there remain today a number of retailers that
are not otherwise in Fort Collins that would like to be here. There are a number of
retailers that were in their original plan that have said to them they are still interested in
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being considered for the project. He was not standing there today wasting anyone's
time and asked the Planning and Zoning Board for a positive recommendation to the
Council tonight to allow them to amend the Type 1 aspect of the retail zoning that was
approved a couple of years ago and that was to allow them to bring forward some larger
format retailers to the project. There are sales tax dollars that are leaking from the Fort
Collins community. As late as five years ago, Fort Collins was considered the retail hub
of Northern Colorado, there are now sister city's that are attempting to capture Fort
Collins' sales tax base. Fort Collins is no different from any city throughout the country
today in that a significant portion of your operating budget is represented by sales tax.
He was there tonight because they believe in Fort Collins and also because he feels
there is an opportunity to do a quality retail development that will carryover many of the
same concepts that were set forth in their previous plan being well designed, well
tenanted, pedestrian friendly and would serve as an amenity to the Fort Collins
community. Mr. Silverstein stated that they were not here tonight to share the details of
their plan but would show conceptually that the plan is quite similar to the original plan
that was approved in terms of public infrastructure and layouts of buildings. They do
realize that if they were afforded the opportunity to continue with this project they will be
back before the Board to submit the development plan for review and comment as well
as to the neighborhood and then ultimately to the Council.
Bruce Hendee, BHA Design, 4803 Innovation Drive in Fort Collins also spoke to the
Board on behalf of the applicant. He stated that they have been working through this for
the past four years and they don't have anything to show the Board tonight. What they
would like to share with the Board is the proposal. Mr. Hendee showed a slide of the
proposed location and the surrounding land uses. He stated that when looking at this
site and trying to make a determination if this makes sense or not, consider that Hewlett
Packard and Agilent have at least 2,000 employees; the Harmony Campus for Poudre
Valley Health System has Master Planned for up to 1,000,000 s.f. of medical facilities
and would represent 1,000 employees or more; the Preston Center he was not sure
about but he suspected quite a few and Intel will start with about 300 people. There is a
lot of people right around this area. In addition to that the Fossil Creek Sub Area Plan,
which is a component of City Plan starts here and extends southward and will provide a
major employment base, additionally Fossil Ridge High School is located in the area.
There is English Ranch to the north and the Mobile Home Park and Sunstone. There
are a lot people in this area and so when you think about whether this makes sense as
a location or not you have to look at what is there today and what is going to happen to
the south.
Mr. Hendee spoke about access and stated that Corbett Drive is intended to go through
south to north but they have heard over the last four years from the neighbors a concern
of not having a strong straight connection to the north. There is the buffer land in
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between, so that is a way in which that road could shift. Additionally the access will be
a signalized access and would come straight across from the Hewlett Packard Facility
entrance and that would be a signalized entry point. Mr. Hendee stated that ultimately
Snow Mesa Drive, which aligns with the Harmony Campus for PVH exists and a signal
just went in as part of development of this area, it would ultimately be connected so
there would be access there for multiple locations.
In 2003 the Planning and Zoning Board and City Council adopted a plan that would
allow a Lifestyle Center. Mr. Hendee showed two slides that show the similarities for the
two plans. The Lifestyle Center has a component of community and region, there is a
mix of retail and specialty stores, buildings and sidewalks come together so there is a
common area for people, there is community gathering spaces and the biggest
difference is the maximum size of stores in the Lifestyle Center is 110,000 s.f. whereas
under the proposed amendment for a Regional Shopping Center you could have stores
over that. The plan that they would propose would have two stores that would be in
excess of the 110,000 s.f., but would still contain a number of the same kinds of uses.
In order to make the amendment to City Plan there are two things that have to be met,
one is that City Plan has to have demonstrated a need for an amendment. The second
is that it is going to provide for the public welfare of the city and meet the goals and
policies of City Plan. Mr. Hendee quoted from City Plan "the city will seek to maintain
and enhance its attractiveness as a place to do business in order to maintain its share
of the regions sales and use tax base". That is already a challenge that has been
mentioned.
As you look at the requirements in the land use philosophies in City Plan, it is consistent
with the Visions, Goals, Principles and Policies of City Plan and that the city will have a
compact land use pattern that has a well defined boundary. This proposal helps to
discourage sprawl by having retail happen on the fringe outside of the city. It is an infill
parcel that exists today so it makes sense logically to think about this area keeping this
retail well within the city, which reduces mileage, trip generation and still provides the
economic benefits.
The development here will be guided by the HC Standards and Guidelines which do
have a high level of requirement in terms of image. In addition to that the Land Use
Code covers large footprint users as well as the rest of the retail establishments. This
project would propose to meet or exceed those standards. This project would not have
a negative impact on the downtown businesses because the uses that are proposed
would be different kind of uses than what happens in the downtown area.
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Two other points is that the economic health of our community will be sustainable and
Fort Collins will maintain its roll as a regional economic center. These are two points
that they feel reinforce the requested change and the uses allowed.
Mr. Silverstein closed by saying the world of retail is ever changing, department stores
are constricting and there are only a handful of department stores that still exist. Many
of the centers today are including certain kinds of retail that you would never dream to
have in a mix with others. Their goal and objective is to create a project that they can
continue to bring to the city new and exciting retail. They will not do a project that will
preclude, for example, a Banana Republic making a decision to come to this city. They
have not signed any leases and the retail community is watching to see if they can
move forward with a project as they have described.
Mr. Silverstein shared with the Board a slide of the original design, reviewed access,
and the building layout of the buildings. In the new design the layout of the buildings
and road network is essentially the same. He showed the two buildings that they were
seeking approval for in terms of size. They will be designing them so the backs of the
buildings face one another and do not face back to English Ranch. As you enter the
site, their goal and objective, as was with the Lifestyle design is to make this a very
unique and Main Street feel as you come into the project. The frontage is the same as
it was for the Lifestyle Center. They realize they have to come back before the Board
and submit a final design for approval. He was not there tonight to say this is exactly
how it is going to look, but he is here to say that they will be very much in keeping with
the basic format that was previously approved.
Mr. Silverstein stated that this was a fabulous retail location; it is in the growth corridor,
it has ample daytime population around it that retailers look for. Their goal is to design
something that everyone can be proud of. He stated that one change that has taken
place since the last time he was before the Board is that they have purchased a 50 acre
tract of the project. They are vested in this community. When he stood before the
Board before, he was not a landowner. They bought the 50 acres with the hope that if
they were reasonable and they came forward with a plan that makes sense, they could
produce a project like this. He is a property owner and a tax payer and his goals and
objectives are to make this city continue with this quality of life.
Member Schmidt asked if there was a maximum limit on the size of building they could
have.
Planner Wray replied that with a Regional Shopping Center there is not a cap on it.
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Mr. Silverstein added that they have to come back with a development plan and the
Board would see footprints of these buildings and their sizes. They do not have any
intention of having any building at 200,000 s.f.
Member Schmidt asked about the number of businesses and the maximum number
allowed is being increased to 15 in the Regional Shopping Center and was there any
regulation about size for those buildings. Also when saying this is what composes a
Regional Shopping Center, does that mean there has to be 15 pad sites in the PDP site
plan when the Board sees it, or do they have to have 15 leases before they can start?
Joe Frank, Director of Advanced Planning replied that they have to have 15 different
businesses so as to distinguish that one Super Target does not make a shopping
center. The code does not say what size of businesses.
Member Schmidt asked in terms of moving forward, do you have to have a commitment
from 15 businesses or does your plan just have to show that there will be eventually
some day 15 businesses as part of this center.
Director Frank replied that they have to show 15 different businesses.
Member Schmidt stated that one large store could be the shopping center for a large
period of time.
Director Frank replied no, we would require as a first phase at least 15 be built as part
of the first phase.
Deputy City Attorney Eckman added that there might be language in the Development
Agreement that either calls for some kind of phasing where some of the smaller
businesses are phased in before all the big stores get certificates of occupancy or if it is
not a phased project that we would need to make sure there was some protection that
not just the big stores go in and everything else would be forgotten about.
Member Lingle asked on the larger uses beyond 110,000 s.f. in the definition, and is
there a cap permitted on how many there would be. He knows they are showing two,
but if we were to approve this, could we end up with five or six. What he would not want
to see is a PDP that would look like the center at State Highway 7 and 1-25 that is
nothing but eight or ten big boxes with a sea of parking. He would not want to change
the language to allow something to occur if this proposal goes away and we are stuck
with who knows what. If there is not these kind of protections, could the Board in their
recommendation add conditions that would satisfy their concerns to protect the intent of
what they are seeing even though the PDP is not here yet.
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Planner Wray replied that in the existing definition of a Regional Shopping Center there
is not a cap on the number of large tenants. In the Lifestyle Center definition, we did put
the limitation of no more than two department stores no greater than 110,000 s.f.
Mr. Silverstein added that he would acknowledge that the city should have protection if
they go away and he would be willing to put a cap on it. He would like to say three,
because there are a couple of users that were in the old plan that may be in this new
plan that he does not want to keep out of this project. Mr. Silverstein also committed as
he did before for a satellite Library on the site, but it would be up to the city to fund it.
PUBLIC COMMENT
Les Kaplan, 140 Palmer Drive stated that he has had a long standing involvement with
Harmony Road. He owns the southwest corner of Harmony and Timberline where the
Harmony Village Shopping Center is and he owns 3.7 acres next to this site which is
o e
the west and Snow Mesa. He also owns 70
t the west between this property to e located
P P Y
acres on Harmony Road, which is part of the Harmony Technology Park Overall
Development Plan. He has owned it for 7 years and has been paying taxes on it for 7
years. He thinks that the analysis that was done for the Harmony Corridor Plan was a
bit superficial and he had a lengthy presentation as to why but thought that Mr. Wray
made his point for him when he said that this property is the only property in the Growth
Management Area which is suitable for a Regional Retail Center.
Mr. Kaplan showed a slide of the Overall Development Plan for the Harmony
Technology Park. He stated that site A is the location for Celestica and his property is
G, H, K, I and J. He submitted to the city of Fort Collins three days ago a request to
amend the Harmony Corridor Plan to allow for the shaded area for either a Community
or Regional Retail Center. This site is development ready, and is more development
ready than the Bayer site is, although he would prefer not to compare the sites. He
does not know how much money you have to spend on improvements for the city to
realize that you are doing something out there and you exist. There has been two
million dollars spent on improvements on this property do date. You might have noticed
that the intersection of Harmony and Cambridge Avenue is improved and signalized.
Cambridge Avenue is fully improved and eventually Cambridge Avenue will go all the
way out to College Avenue and be a southeast beltway through southeast Fort Collins.
The property is served by water and sewer, all the dry utilities, there is a 40 inch storm
sewer pipe in Rock Creek so the property is all ready to go. For Mr. Wray to say that
the Bayer site is the only site in the Growth Management Area which is ready for a
Regional Shopping Center is wrong. If he could leave the Board with any point this
evening, it is the fact that there are other properties in the Growth Management Area,
there is another property on Harmony Road which is this property which is very close to
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1-25, closer in fact and visible from 1-25 because the east part of the property is on a
ridge. His main message here is that if you start applying the criteria for today's
economic conditions and the need for sales tax, we need to add more retail to the land
uses in Fort Collins that you are going to be getting another one. He would like to think
that if 94 acres is recommended to be added to the inventory tonight, that when he
comes back to the Planning and Zoning Board with another request to change the
Harmony Corridor Plan that the answer is that 94 acres is enough. In fact the 94 acres
being looked at might not even be the best 94 acres. He was not here to speak in favor
or against this amendment, only to say that there is another application that is coming
and he simply wanted to correct the impression made during the staff presentation that
it is this site or no site. He also would have expected that if there would have been a
change made to the Harmony Corridor Plan anyway for this property, that the change
would have taken place in the course of a much more comprehensive analysis of the
Harmony Corridor Plan. The type of analysis that was done when he was on the
Advisory Committee that did the initial Harmony Corridor Plan and on the Advisory
Committee when it experienced its first amendment. The initial Plan took over a year to
do and the amendment took at least six months. This amendment process is less than
two months and for the most part is site specific and did not analyze the potential of
other properties.
Mr. Kaplan begged to differ with the staff conclusions that were this application not
before the Board that the iniative would be taken to change this site because he would
like to think that were the staff to be compelled to change the Harmony Corridor Plan, it
would be as a result of a much more detailed analysis and public input process.
Russ McCahan, managing broker at Stanford Real Estate, 3555 Stanford Road, stated
that he owns property in the Harmony Corridor, but is not located in the Harmony
Corridor Plan. He wanted to speak on the amount of ground that is in the Employment
District. His company went through an exercise with Hewlett Packard in Greeley on the
same situation. They had about 85 acres in the middle of a Golf Course and they
wanted to take that property out of their employment zoning. They hired an analysis
company and they looked at the absorption rate of employment ground in the city of
Greeley over a long period of time and it was extremely low. He thought the city had
about 300 years of inventory in their existing Growth Management Area. He thought
that Fort Collins was in that same situation. If you look at the number of sites that have
been built over 10 acres, even in the immediate area and has not been absorbed.
Mr. McCahan referenced a 70,000 to 80,000 s.f. building that was built spec, next to the
Groups building with four larger users, most of that building is cut up into very small
parcels. He thought that the LSI building would be available for primary employment.
He thought that there was plenty of primary employment ground. He felt that if this site
is not developed now, then another community like Timnath or Windsor will pick it up
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and we will have more retail leakage. He encouraged the Board to take the tax dollars
that are on the table now.
Linda Hopkins, 1809 Rangeview, stated that she owns residential property within 500
feet of this development, has lived in Fort Collins 42 years and thinks of herself as a
Fort Collins cheerleader. Her enthusiasm for Fort Collins is not unqualified and in this
instance it is tempered by her community experience. She spent 15 years in municipal
public service and with a stint in economic development. Also 15 years in real estate
sales and development. She also served on the City Plan revision committee.
This evening she would like to reiterate her opposition to the proposed further
amendment to the Harmony Corridor Plan. She has not wavered in her concern for the
loss of land zoned for industrial and employment land uses. She pointed out the loss of
2600 primary jobs in exchange for 1700 retail jobs is not to be taken lightly. She is not
persuaded that this is the last or best effort to rescue sales tax dollars. She is not
persuaded that this is the last or best location for a branch Library and rather than
compound the errors, she asked the Board to not approve any further amendments to
the Corridor, but work to retrieve the original goals and vision of the Corridor Plan.
While there might not be current demand for parcels for industrial users, do not deny
future opportunities by a short sided decision this evening. She thought that the change
in the maximum store size is not a minor amendment by any means. She is quite
certain few neighbors can clearly visualize what 900,000 s.f. of commercial uses looks
like. It is a Foothills Mall 750,000 s.f. combined with another Super Target to make the
900,000. That is really quite a picture in ones mind.
Eric Larsen, 3344 Ledgestone Court stated that they moved to Fort Collins in May and
they moved to Fort Collins because they thought it was a unique city. They liked this
community because it was not really a cookie cutter design and has a lot of diversity.
He was glad to hear that there was some market research done for the initial project.
What he was not clear about is what has really changed after the initial market research
that was done in order to make an additional amendment necessary. It seems like
everything that was done was done correctly, but no action was taken. To say that
Centerra was the cause of that was whistling Dixie. He has looked at the shops at
Centerra and about 80% of them are already within the Fort Collins area. He did not
think that there was any imagination used as far as developing this regional program
that was originally proposed in 2003.
Mr. Larsen asked if it was possible to have a requirement that there be local businesses
into this Regional Center, and local meaning Fort Collins or all of Colorado. The other
thing that has impressed him tonight is that the approval was done in 2003 and nothing
happened and he does not understand that. Will something happen if is approved now?
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We have no assurance of it based on past records; it is probably not going to. To him it
is like bait and switch. We have a nice regional program and now we want to have a
Big Box center. He was not sure if it really fits into the work compatibility. He did not
think that the amendment should be changed because it was a good proposal before.
Marty Tharp, 601 Birkey Place stated that she was on City Council when the zoning was
changed to accommodate the Lifestyle Center and at that time it did not include Big Box
stores. The request is now to add larger retail at that site. She supported the Lifestyle
Center while she was on City Council because we were losing retail sales tax to our
neighbors and because the Lifestyle Center would create a special niche of specialty
shops, which would be useful here. While the current plan may not bring in any high
end shops to the area, we are still very much in need of the sales tax that the proposed
center would provide. She supported the request for rezoning.
Originally she had concerns that we were converting valuable lands zoned for
employment and industrial for commercial development, however she feels a more
pressing need to allow this retail development because of the current competition from
our neighboring cities. If we were debating between two offers, one from employment
and one from retail, she would support employment use of the land, but no such offers
are W hat we have before us now will help increase our sales tax revenue and
pending.
without this rezoning additional sales tax revenue will be lost to our neighbors. She
would also like to emphasize that the developer is very much interested in providing
space at the site for a southwest branch Library, something she has encouraged for
several years. The center is an ideal location for a branch Library and will add to the
mix of shops and will bring in traffic to the center and will be conveniently located for
many Fort Collins residents. She has heard that there is no money for a branch Library
because of our tight budget. The city has already collected 4.6 million dollars in impact
fees that can only be used for Library facilities. The funds come from fees charged as
each new home is built. The money can only be used for Libraries and while the budget
does not allow for operating and maintenance costs, we will be able to figure that out in
some creative form. She would very much like to see this plan continue.
Joey Porter, 2613 Bison in English Ranch also has an office directly south of the
proposed site for the new mall that is being proposed. She thought that this
amendment is a big change. The city's letter called it a minor change from an upscale
Lifestyle Center to a Regional Big Box Mall. She did not think that the majority of the
English Ranch homeowners really have an idea what's coming. When talking Super
Wal-Mart and Super Targets, she thinks that it is a whole different ballpark than what we
are talking about with a Lifestyle model and Library, which she supports.
Ms. Porter had concerns with traffic issues for the English Ranch both inside on the
neighborhood streets and with the connectivity to other neighborhoods coming through
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the English Ranch to reach the mall. She thinks that the traffic on Ziegler and
Horsetooth is going to be a major change for the English Ranch neighborhood. No
traffic counts for this type of mall have been given to the neighborhood. We had traffic
estimates when we had a Lifestyle mall, but we are totally talking about a totally
different subject here in a Regional Mall. She knows and understands that the city
needs sales tax dollars, but please don't be short sited. She did not think that no
amount of landscaping or berming is going to make these huge boxes attractive. She
also thinks that City Plan is about predictability and 500 to 700 residents of English
Ranch were told that this land was planned for employment and now it is being changed
in a huge way. The developer that is proposing this is saying that there are no
employers that are looking for land, but if you talk to the NCEDC, they are getting one to
three inquiries a week. She asked if anyone had talked to the Economic Development
Committee or the Chamber of Commerce before talking about amending this piece of
land. She thought that there were a lot of people that were not happy that this land was
being changed to a major mall in the first place. Ms. Porter felt that this was not a
place for a Regional Mall because it is not compatible with the area.
Russ Holdredge, 4057 Harrington Court and new to the English Ranch neighborhood.
He stated that he checked with the city of Fort Collins before purchasing his home and
what was the plan for that area and he was assured that there was no plan for big box
stores there. He was concerned with the change and the number of big box stores that
can be on the property.
Tawnya Yurt, 2721 Stonehave Drive stated that she had concerns with the safety of
their neighborhood and was there representing 20 to 30 other parents in the
neighborhood that could not attend tonight. Their biggest concern was the proposed
connection that is being proposed to make through Kingsley, via Edmonds into the new
regional mall. Ms. Yurt stated that all but one small bus full of kids walk on Kingsley to
school and the kids are out all the time. If you have any clue of the traffic that would be
on the streets that their kids walk on everyday, you would not connect the Regional Mall
with their neighborhood. There was not one parent in the school today that she talked
to that was aware of the plan to back a Super Wal-Mart or Lowe's to their neighborhood
or connect a street. She had concerns with the hours of a Super Wal-Mart and the 24/7
traffic that it would bring to their neighborhood. English Ranch has seven entrances
and exits to the neighborhood already and they don't need another one to a mall.
Dan Bartran, 2602 Southfield Court in English Ranch and is the HOA President said
that he has had a lot of people come by his office concerned about it and a lot of
concern has been with traffic. He took a look at the size of the proposal and he is very
concerned with the amount of traffic the project will generate. It looks like there are
three exits, English Ranch, Ziegler and Harmony Road. There have been a lot of
exemptions around town and he felt there should be one here and he mentioned
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Stoneridge and Miramont as examples of no exits. He has four kids and thought it was
scary the amount of traffic through their neighborhood. He thought this was the best
site in town for employment and he wished the city would look at it and not give it away
too soon.
Iris Wagner, 3007 Carrington Circle in English Ranch is opposed to this amendment as
well as development of the property as far as a shopping center is concerned. In
addition to the other objections that have been raised tonight, she would remind
everyone that the English Ranch is very family oriented. There is a large population of
young children who walk to school; also this is an area that most evenings you will see
a large number of people out walking, bicycling and children out on skate boards so a
traffic issue is a huge concern. Ms. Wagner stated that with Big Box Super Centers you
don't normally see those in nice neighborhoods and certainly do not see people of Fort
Collins beating a path to move next door to the Super Center because they are such
ugly developments. She asked the Board to not support the proposal for a change.
Thomas Welch, 4033 Mesa Verde in Fort Collins stated the he believes that Fort Collins
has prided itself in being a unique place for having culture and character and class. The
people of Fort Collins care about quality of life and care about open space and care
about how our city grows and care about quality employment and care about the future.
The proposed Regional Center does not bring anything to Fort Collins that we don't
already have. We have major retailers and restaurants including the super variety like
Wal-Mart and the Home Depots. The Regional Big Box Center will not contribute
anything unique and will not contribute to our culture and will not contribute to our
character and will not contribute to our class. It in fact will detract from these. You can
dress it up and it will still be a wolf in sheep's clothing. The outside does not change the
character. Fort Collins can be better served by holding the vision of the Harmony
Corridor to help attract quality employment opportunities to Fort Collins. Of the many
cities in Colorado, they chose Fort Collins as a choice location to live and to raise their
children. They did not come here to shop, they came here to live. Amending the
Lifestyle Center to be a location for Superstores will make Fort Collins less livable. It is
a short sided solution being cited for revenues and profit and the sacrifice for quality of
life. Fort Collins does not need this money to be a quality place to live. He asked the
Board to preserve Fort Collins to be a place of culture and character and class and a
place for quality employment and not a line item on an operating budget, but a quality
place to raise families. He asked the Board to deny the amendment.
PUBLIC COMMENT CLOSED
Member Lingle asked if staff has met with the Economic Development Council and
Chamber of Commerce Affairs.
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Planner Wray stated they have met with the Chamber of Commerce and staff is going
again tomorrow morning for a second meeting. We are continuing discussions
internally with city staff and continuing our analysis with our Consultants, Economic and
Planning Systems that helped us with the previous decision with the Lifestyle Center so
we are continuing to get information and respond to that to move forward. Staff has not
met with the economic group at this point.
Mr. Silverstein replied to public comment in the fact that he has never been called
incompetent, whistling Dixie and the bait and switch comment. He also has never
spoke about Wal-Mart and did not know where it originated, but he has never
mentioned Wal-Mart in this project. He has not signed any lease and has not even
talked to them. There is a lot of misconception that is being presented tonight. He
respects the debate on primary jobs and this is a debate the community will continue to
go through for years to come as Mr. Kaplan indicated. There are other sites within the
Corridor that may lend themselves to retail development over time if in fact the primary
jobs issue continues to be one that there is no one to absorb all the land that is
available.
Member Schmidt asked if 900,000 s.f. is an accurate number.
Mr. Silverstein replied that under the current plan they could build up to 750,000 and
they really have not pegged the number. The plan will have to come before this Board
again when they have a more defined plan and the Board will ultimately decide on how
big this center can be. The connectivity between this center and English Ranch is a city
issue and if that connectivity does not happen they are o.k. with that.
Member Schmidt did not interpret as much of a sense of urgency with this as there was
with the Lifestyle Center. Given that, she was wondering if the whole Harmony Corridor
Plan should be looked at especially with another change request coming forth.
Planner Wray stated that the entire corridor has been looked at and continue to assess
land use decisions within our whole Growth Management Area. We are responding to a
follow up request from a couple of years ago. As you know the Harmony Corridor Plan
was amended and has in place the designation for a mixed use activity center at this
site. We are not starting from scratch and he did not think it was fair to compare Mr.
Kaplan's request for consideration for another retail site because we don't have that in
front of us tonight. Staff is responding to this request. In looking at the demographics
and the distribution of existing and future residential in this southeast part of Fort Collins
and the employment designations, that this is a good site for a retail center.
Planner Wray stated that south of Harmony he wanted to clarify that Mr. Kaplan's
property is part of the Overall Development Plan of the Harmony Technology site and
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Planning and Zoning Board Minutes
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there was a previous decision to establish the amount of primary employment and
secondary uses on those properties south of Harmony around Cambridge. He has
existing designations for secondary uses on his property. That was determined in
looking at the Overall Development Plan of the Harmony Tech site reserving 75% for
primary employment. We don't have a mixed use activity center designation anywhere
else along the corridor and at this point has supported a couple of years ago with the
addition of a third Mixed-Use Activity Center and designation. If we get other
applications in the future we will have to have a hard look and full assessment of that
when looking at the entire corridor.
Director Frank added that we have known for several years that we were going to get
some new demands for retail and it was going to be at a Regional scale and we have
known for several years that we don't have any good sites except for a few along 1-25
that are not ready for development because of interchange problems. He thought this
was the best site we have and Mr. Kaplan has presented this week another proposal
and we will evaluate that.
Member Craig asked if in all the analysis that was done did the staff come up with a
number of net acres of employment that should be retained that is not already owned by
AB or HP but is owned independently.
Director Frank replied that is the best benchmark that we have is the jobs housing
balance and when we did the update to City Plan we looked at that very carefully and
established the current jobs housing balance as the goal to try and continue the next
few years to maintain that balance for the next 15 to 20 years. Is there a magic number,
no? We do know that we will probably run out of land for employment in the next 12 to
15 years as we will for residential.
Member Craig commented that the jobs housing balance formula concerns her because
she felt it did not set us up for sustainability.
Director Frank replied that in 2003 with the amendment for the Lifestyle Center, there
was quite a bit of analysis done and we updated it with the employment impact analysis.
We updated that just recently and then our consultants told us that we had an ample
supply of sites for basic employment and our analysis at this point is that it really has
not changed and our conclusion would be that we still have ample land for basic
employment land uses in the future. This is not changing from the conclusion in 2003.
Member Craig was concerned that this is the setting of precedents and if we do this
then how do we tell Mr. Kaplan no you cannot have yours and what about someone
else along the Harmony Corridor. We keep saying we have ample employment, but lets
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switch it to retail because that will give us money whereas we don't have an employer
that wants to come in.
Director Frank replied that he was not going to sit here and say that we can prove every
change and he is not going to keep saying that there is ample employment because that
is too obvious that at some point we are going to have to say no there is not ample
employment and we need to maintain these sites.
Member Lingle commented that he has always found that the discussion about sales
tax generation or loss to not be a Planning and Zoning Board issue. That is something
for City Council. This Board needs to think and make decisions that are in the best
interest of the community in 20 to 50 years from now and not is what is potentially going
to fill the coffer in a year and a half. Those are decisions that City Council should make.
Member Schmidt stated that this has already been rezoned to be retail, so then we are
coming down to deciding what kind of retail we want and that is where their questions
were initially. Can we put criteria on how large the big boxes are and other businesses
because in theory we could go another route and not make this a Regional Shopping
Center and change the Lifestyle definition to say you can have two big boxes of 150,000
s.f. That kind of amendment would not change what was already approved two years
ago when we approved this as a Lifestyle Center. Those are the options she is
weighing. In some ways she has more comfort in going with that kind of route,
amending the criteria for a Lifestyle Center and leaving it that way and then when the
next rezoning request comes up to again look at more retail then we are back to the
initial issue of retail versus employment. She thinks that if we open this up to a
Regional Shopping Center then — she has some discomfort with that just because right
now the whole definition and all the impacts is still a little nebulous, we have not seen
that much in writing whereas with the Lifestyle Center there is very specific criteria as to
what is going to take place.
Member Craig stated that what she did like about the amendment that included the
Lifestyle Center is that the land is still left open that if the Lifestyle Center did not go
through and an employer stepped up and said they wanted to use it as employment
then it could be converted back to employment. If we make it a Regional Shopping
Center that cannot happen, it has to be commercial and has to be a Regional Shopping
Center.
Planner Wray stated that was not correct, the underlying zoning is still in place just like
the Lifestyle Center designation. If this amendment is successful or for some reason
decides not to move forward with a development project and leaves town and no one
else ever comes forward, but an employer comes forward, the underlying designation is
still available.
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Member Lingle realized that the decision has already been made to allow a Lifestyle
Center and what we would be doing is just adjusting that to allow larger stores. In terms
of the underlying use and the primary job creation, he agreed that the atmosphere and
the environment for large employers have changed significantly and we are probably
not looking at coming in with 2,000 jobs anymore. There are still a lot of other
employers that can bring in 50 to 100 jobs and 20 of those are still the same as
somebody else and he did not what them to lose sight of that and that we have to rush
toward retail as our savior and not at least allow for some long term realization of the
Harmony Corridor Plan as it was originally envisioned. Therefore he was not sure if he
was O.K. with the suggestion of changing what we already have to allow a couple of
larger projects within that scenario.
Member Stockover commented that he was not going to go on and on, he was just in
favor of it. He thought that staff has done a wonderful job and he thought that they were
recommending the right decision and he would support the recommendation. He stated
that as far as setting a precedent, we are a competitive nation and sometimes it is the
first one with the dollar that wins. When we are talking about if this is the best sight, are
there other sites, it is not us what should dictate competition. They are competing for
this site first and he did not think we should penalize them because there would be
something else out there. He thought it was important to attract good retail and he
would be supporting the proposal because it will turn out well for our community.
Member Lingle asked if what Member Schmidt was suggesting was a possibility just to
amend the definition of Lifestyle Center to include an allowance for two or three larger
users.
Planner Wray replied that it is a possibility, but staff felt that they felt comfortable about
keeping the work that was done previously. He thought there could be a limitation set
regarding the number of large retail establishments as part of the shopping center. He
thought that was a better fit for this designation.
Director Frank asked Member Schmidt if she felt that the Standards that are in the
Standards and Guidelines provide more protection and would produce a better
development project.
Member Schmidt felt that we have already made the designation for a Lifestyle Center
and that was water under the bridge whether it is employment or retail. She felt that by
rezoning it to a Regional Shopping Center that is like doing it again. Using your rational
why it is o.k., she felt like when the next site comes in, that same rational would make
each one o.k. Until you come up to the magic number of running out of employment
land, she thought that would be a long time before that happens. Given a time frame, if
these come in rather soon, there is not any chance for any employers to come up and
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we need to stick to our guns and say we need to keep a certain supply of employment
land. Given that scenario and applying it to every other piece of property that comes in,
she could not see where she could sit there and be able to deny someone else. She
thought that is one of the things in City Plan that we have tried to promote in this town is
an element of fairness. She also looked in the Harmony Plan and could never find an
exact definition of a Regional Shopping Center.
Planner Wray responded that there were extensive discussions a couple of years ago to
add the mixed use activity center at this location and a potential Lifestyle Center. There
are trade-offs for every decision and we are challenged with two primary things here
and one is to look at a different type of retail center in this location and the other is the
concern about employment lands inventory. With the update of the inventory analysis,
we have 583 acres within the Harmony Corridor designated for employment and we
have 18 sites that are 5 acres or larger. We are pretty comfortable with the future
allowance for future employment uses. A variety of employer types and we have a
variety of lot sizes to accommodate that for approximately 15 to 20 years. That adds to
the inventory of our whole Growth Management Area.
Member Schmidt agreed with that, but she is thinking that as we piece meal and go
through projects, given that information, what would keep us from re-designating them
all into Regional Shopping Centers and then we have changed the whole essence of
the Harmony Corridor.
Planner Wray replied that the other part of this is that we have made a previous
decision to add a Mixed-Use Activity Center for this location. He thought that staff
would have some extensive analysis if there was another proposal, as we have heard
tonight of the potential for another request to consider another larger retail center in the
Harmony Corridor. That is not a guaranteed decision to add a fourth Regional Center
along the Corridor. We have had extensive discussions in this community and with
Council and the Planning and Zoning Board to make that difficult decision a couple of
years ago to have this designation. We basically have the same size and we are
looking for some minor refinements for the types and size of tenants here. To think that
we will easily make a potential decision in the future to consider any other large retail
designation in the corridor will be a challenge and staff will deliberate on that
extensively. We are comfortable adding this third designation in the corridor, but that is
as far as we go at this point. We are dealing with this request tonight that will trigger an
amendment to the plan. Again, we are not starting from scratch, we have deliberated
extensively and we have this designation in place for roughly the same size. In 2003
we were talking about 90 acres and now 94 acres for a shopping center.
Member Stockover moved to recommend to City Council approval of the
amendment to the Land Use Maps in the Harmony Corridor Plan and Harmony
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Page 23
Corridor Standards and Guidelines based on City Plan is in need of the
amendment and that the amendment will promote the public welfare and will be
consistent with the Vision, Goals and Principles and Policies of City Plan and the
elements there of.
Member Schmidt seconded the motion for reasons of discussion.
Member Schmidt found the definition for Regional Shopping Center in the back of the
Harmony Corridor Plan and quoted that "a Regional Shopping Center shall be situated
on 30 to 70 acres." Now we are looking at more than 70 acres. "Multi-Family
Residential as well as non retail employment generating uses may be located amongst
the retail component of the Regional Shopping Center." This is on page 67 of the
Harmony Corridor Plan. This definition is sounding a little different from the Lifestyle
Center. "A Regional Shopping Center continues the city's tradition of having small and
medium size shops supplementing the principle tenants." She was wondering if what
we are approving on this site really meets the definition of Regional Shopping Center
that is in the plan.
Planner Wray replied that the first thing staff looked at in responding to the request was
size of the retail tenants. The site they are looking at is larger than that, it is 94 acres.
Director Frank also replied that the Lifestyle Center definition is on 40 to 80 acres and
the Regional Shopping Center is 30 to 70 acres. He thought when we did this plan
update in 2003, that is what staff thought the size of Regional Shopping Center was 30
to 70, we now know that is different today. He thought there were a couple of options.
The Board could say that the center should follow the definition and be 30 to 70 acres
fitting the definition or maybe we should be amending the Design Guidelines and say
that it could be 30 to 100 acres.
Director Frank also suggested that the Board could make a recommendation to Council
that they investigate that this is outside the size of the Regional Shopping Center
definition and they are proposing 94. If the Board feels that there should be more
analysis, the Board could recommend to City Council that staff investigate whether this
definition of a Community Regional Shopping Center in terms of the acreage is current
or not.
Member Schmidt asked if there was a big reason city planning wise why it is important
to make this a Regional Shopping Center versus tweaking the definition of Lifestyle
Center.
Director Frank replied that when you look at the definition of Lifestyle Shopping Center
and you read it, staff spent a lot of time distinguishing how it is different from a Regional
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Shopping Center and we rely on a definition adopted by the International Council of
Shopping Centers in 2002 to help us. It says it is not a 'Power Center" and it is not a
"Regional Shopping Center." He thought if we added 140,000 s.f. big boxes to it, it
would not be a Lifestyle Center any longer, it changes it to a Power Center, which is a
Regional Shopping Center not a Lifestyle Shopping Center. Lifestyle Shopping Centers
do not include big boxes.
Member Schmidt asked if a friendly amendment would be considered by Member
Stockover to say that the Board recommends approval with the caveat that the
number of large stores in excess of 110,000 is limited to three, and that it does
not include multi-family housing.
Deputy City Attorney Eckman also suggested a recommendation regarding the number
of acres and whether this particular project should be limited to 70 acres or whether the
Board wanted to recommend to the Council that the number be increased to a higher
number.
Director Frank suggested hearing from the applicant regarding the acreage issue.
Mr. Silverstein responded that what is driving the number of acres is the building of the
Boulevard that runs through the site. In order to produce the layout for where Corbett
extends and goes from Harmony to Ziegler, you will need that amount of acreage to
make it all work. All they are asking for is enough acreage to build the infrastructure
and detention ponds, you will use up about 94 acres. He did not think that the
distinction between 70 and 94 is really the driving force here, he thought the distinction
is do you approve this land use for a Regional Shopping Center. He has seen Regional
Shopping Centers that are well over 100 acres; it just depends on what fits.
Mr. Silverstein added that they have been also asked to put residential units above retail
for loft living and they would also like to have that possibility. They have no interest to
bring multi family into this site, but they might include some lofts above some retail and
they think that there is a market for it.
Deputy City Attorney Eckman commented that the issue of 30 to 70 might have been a
bad idea and it should say in excess of 30 or something like that and there is no limit
because if you choose 100 instead of 70 then what do you have when someone comes
in with a proposal that exceeds 100. He did not know if it was wise to put an upper limit
on the number of acres that might be in a particular development.
Member Schmidt asked it the definition was just for the Harmony Corridor or was it for
any Regional Shopping Center in the city.
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Director Frank replied that these definitions are only used in the Harmony Corridor.
Member Schmidt suggested making the basic change to recommend to City
Council that part of the amendment be that the change be situated on 30 to 100
acres and Council could tweak it some more when they have had more time to
consider it.
Member Stockover added to the recommendation that the large buildings be
capped at three and that the maximum size of the Regional Shopping center be
100 acres.
Director Frank suggested that the multi family concern is a good one to and suggested
that the developer be limited to "mixed-use" residential, which would then exclude free
standing phases of multi-family development.
Member Schmidt quoted what was currently in the definition "multi family residential as
well as non retail employment generating uses may be located amongst the retail
component of the Regional Shopping Center."
Director Gloss replied that you can incorporate horizontally separated attached
residential units within a commercial center as an allowed use. You can also have a
vertical mixed use or horizontally separated mixed use within the same building and that
is called mixed use. A mixed use building is where you have multiple uses, residential
and non residential in the same building. It would not have to be vertically mixed
although that is how we would typically see it.
Member Schmidt stated that in addition to the previous motion, adding that the
Regional Center size be limited to 30 to 100 acres, that the number of big box
store be limited to three and that traditional multi family, but would allow mixed
use.
Member Craig would not be supporting the motion because we went through a grueling
process a couple of years ago on a land use level to come up with a Lifestyle Center
and part of that process involved the neighborhood and how they would be impacted
and involved predictability. She felt that when we change this to a Regional Shopping
Center we have gone against what we told the neighbors what we give them with a
Lifestyle Center and that was all of these conditions and control so it would be an up
scaled completely different than a Regional Shopping Center and we are not doing that
anymore and she understands the changes in market, but she also knows that two
years ago we were told that the Lifestyle Center was the up and coming thing and that
was the only way to go and Regional Shopping Centers were out. She does not want
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Page 26
us to constantly changing because of the market and this is a land use Board and not a
market driven Board. She could not support this at this time.
Member Lingle agreed with Member Craig in a lot of ways and would vote that way to if
we had an option to rescind the Lifestyle designation and go back to primary
employment but he did not see that as a viable alternative to the city right now. He was
willing to support the motion tonight.
Member Schmidt would be supporting the motion because the one thing that was stated
is that the underlying zoning is still employment.
The motion was approved 3-1 with Member Craig voting in the negative.
Community Planning and Environmental Services
Advance Planning Department
City of Fort Collins
Memorandum
TO: Planning and Zoning Board
FROM: Timothy Wilder,City Planner �
THRU: Gregory Byrne, CPES Director
Joe Frank,Advance Planning Director
DATE: December 6,2005
RE: Impact of the Bayer Retail Project on the Supply of Employment Land
Summary
The proposed retail project at Harmony and Zeigler would be located on 94 acres of land that is
zoned HC—Harmony Corridor and currently designated for a Lifestyle Center or non-retail
employment uses. Staff has determined that in order for this project to move forward, the first
step is to amend the Harmony Corridor Plan to allow for a regional shopping center.
This memo examines the supply of buildable employment land and the impact of the proposed
retail project on the potential future supply of jobs. In 2003, Economic Planning Systems (EPS)
prepared a report, "Lifestyle Center Economic Impact Analysis",which examined the supply of
employment land in response to Bayer's proposed lifestyle center at Harmony and Zeigler. The
report concluded that there was "an adequate supply of primary employment lands available in
the City for economic development purposes." Based on the City's Buildable Lands Inventory,
it identified 2,500 acres of undeveloped land in the HC, E and I zone districts. It also identified
30 undeveloped sites over 10 acres in size. Finally, the report suggested that the city continue to
monitor this land supply to determine if additional primary employment land is necessary.
The conclusion that there is an adequate supply of primary employment lands is still valid today.
Relatively little land has been converted to non-employment uses and the vacant land supply
remains robust. There are over 2,300 acres of vacant land in the zone districts that would
accommodate the bulk of primary jobs, representing over 25,000 potential new jobs. The
removal of 94 acres would reduce the employment build-out by a year or two. However, there
are still many sites that could accept large and small primary employers.
Vacant employment land has attracted many requests for conversion to non-employment uses. If
the City is to retain an adequate supply and attract primary employers, it needs to carefully assess
the benefits and drawbacks of those requests. Staff concludes that the Harmony Rd/Zeigler
request results in a minimal loss in employment land supply.
281 NorthColiegeF.venue ^ P.O.Box580 - Fort Collins,CO80522-0580 • 1970)221-6 7c:
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Vacant Employment Land Supply Analysis
Employment land is defined here as lands in the E-Employment, HC-Harmony Corridor, and I-
Industrial zone districts. These are the zone districts that accommodate the majority of primary
jobs, while other non-residential zone districts are mostly oriented to non-primary retail and
service jobs.
Compared to 2003, the supply of employment land is only slightly less (see Table 1). There
were three factors that resulted in the loss or gain of vacant land since then. First, in 2004, 106
acres of employment land were downzoned to residential uses. The two projects were:
o Trailhead Annexation,residential project, 89 acres.
o Oakridge Business Park, Continuing Care Senior Campus,modification to allow more
than 25% secondary uses, 17 acres.
Table 1: Vacant Lands Inventory
Zone Acres Potential Jobs %of Total
Employment 838 11,000 33%
Harmony Corridor 583 9,100 27%
Industrial 921 5,200 15%
Subtotal 2,342 25,3M 75%
All Other Districts 817 8,355 25%
Grand Total 3,159 33,655 100%
Second, several small parcels were developed for employment uses in 2003 and 2004.
Third, staff changed the way buildable lands were identified. Prior to 2004, vacant lands under
entitlement were removed from the BLI. However,this produced an artificially low yield of
jobs because the future jobs within these entitlements were not captured elsewhere. Today, the
BLI includes any vacant non-residential property whether entitled or not in order to estimate all
potential future jobs.
The future jobs supply will most likely be boosted through redevelopment and increased
employment on the Foothills Campus. While it is impossible to predict how many new jobs will
be produced, EPS estimated approximately 5,000 new jobs generated through redevelopment.
Also, CSU expects to add 280 employees by 2009.
If redevelopment estimates are added to potential jobs from vacant lands (33,655), the total
supply of jobs is 39,048. The estimated build-out year based on a demand for 138,535 jobs in
2025 (source: EPS)would be around 2022 (see Table 2).
Table 2: Comparison of Job Supply to Demand
Existing supply Future supply Total Supply 2025 Demand Capacity of Buildout Year
(Vacant+ (Existing+ (EPS Existing GMA
Redev.) Future) Projection) (Supply—
Demand)
93,288 39,048 132,336 138,535 -6,200 2022
2
Table 3 shows vacant employment land under entitlement. The majority of the entitlements have
occurred in the Harmony Corridor district(193 acres). The largest entitlements include the PVH
Harmony Campus (95 acres) and Harmony School Shops (13 acres). In addition, approximately
24 acres of vacant HC land is under development review.
Table 3: Vacant Employment Land Under Entitlement
Zone Gross Vacant Entitled Net Vacant
Employment 838 3 832
Harmony Corridor 583 193 390
Industrial 921 25 896
Total 2,342 221 2,121
Certain factors reduce the job yield of vacant lands. Constrained land, including floodplains and
natural features constitute 647 acres (28%) of all vacant employment lands. Some of this land is
partially developable and some of it may be fully developable if these constraints are mitigated
or removed. In addition, 25% of the Employment and Harmony Corridor land is typically used
for secondary, retail or residential uses.
Table 4 below shows the available supply if constrained land, secondary uses, and the Bayer site
were netted out. A conservative scenario shows a net employment land supply of 1,362 acres.
The BLI accounts for these vacant land reductions in its estimates of potential future jobs. Of
course the job yield of vacant land is likely to be higher if constrained land is mitigated or
secondary uses occupy less than 25% of the available supply.
Table 4: Reductions to Employment Land
Zone Vacant Constrained 25%Secondary Uses Bayer Available to
Acres unconstrained land only) Proposal Development
Employment 838 201 158 n/a 479
Harmony 583 65 81 94 343
Corridor
Industrial 921 381 n/a n/a 540
Total 2,113 647 239 94 1,362
273 acres of the net vacant HC land is within the Harmon Technology Park ODP anchored b
Y ( Y
gY
the Celestica Building on Harmony Road). The majority of vacant Employment land (448 acres
or 54%) is owned by Anheuser-Busch. Eight of the 22 parcels over 5 acres are owned by A-B.
Table 5 and 6 show the acreage available with sites over 5 and 10 acres in size within each of the
listed zones.
Table 5: Vacant Employment Parcels Greater than 5 Acres in Size
Zone Parcel Count Acres Mean Size Acres
Harmony Corridor 18 496 28
Employment 22 739 34
Industrial 30 823 27
Total 70 2,058 29
3
Table 6: Vacant Employment Parcels Greater than 10 Acres in Site
Zone Parcel Count Acres Mean Size Acres
Harmony Corridor 12 458 38
Employment 15 699 47
Industrial 21 765 36
Total 48 1922 29
Compared with 2003,there are 4 fewer sites now over 10 acres in size and 158 fewer vacant
acres.
A Harmony Corridor Plan change from employment to retail would result in the replacement of
future primary jobs with retail jobs. The 2003 EPS report estimated that 2,614 high tech jobs
would be replaced by 1,713 retail jobs if the lifestyle center covered 90 acres. These figures are
likely to be similar with the proposed 94-acre regional shopping center. The high-tech jobs
represent 29%of the current job supply in the Harmony Corridor and 8%of the overall supply.
Thus, according to EPS, 900 fewer jobs are likely to result and on average pay much less.
The EPS report stated, "The City retains plenty of large employment land potential, even with
the removal of the entire 140 acre Harmony Road site." It explained that 35 companies the size
of LSI Logic(12 acres and 325 employees)could still be accommodated in the HC vacant land
inventory. Today, if the 94 acres were removed from the BLI, then there would still be 11 sites
greater than 12 acres in size on a total of 353 acres. This could accommodate 29 companies
equal to the size of LSI Logic.
4
it
Attachment 3
Community Planning and Environmental Services
Advance Planning Department
City of Fort Collins
Memorandum
TO: Planning and Zoning Board
FROM. Timothy Wilder,City Planner
�r
THRU: Gregory Byrne, CPES Director
Joe Frank, Advance Planning DirectorP
DATE: December 6, 2005
RE: Impact of the Bayer Retail Project on the Supply of Employment Land
Summary
The proposed retail project at Harmony and Zeigler would be located on 94 acres of land that is
zoned HC—Harmony Corridor and currently designated for a Lifestyle Center or non-retail
employment uses. Staff has determined that in order for this project to move forward, the first
step is to amend the Harmony Corridor Plan to allow for a regional shopping center.
This memo examines the supply of buildable employment land and the impact of the proposed
retail project on the potential future supply of jobs. In 2003, Economic Planning Systems (EPS)
prepared a report, "Lifestyle Center Economic Impact Analysis", which examined the supply of
employment land in response to Bayer's proposed lifestyle center at Harmony and Zeigler. The
report concluded that there was "an adequate supply of primary employment lands available in
the City for economic development purposes." Based on the City's Buildable Lands Inventory,
it identified 2,500 acres of undeveloped land in the HC, E and I zone districts. It also identified
30 undeveloped sites over 10 acres in size. Finally, the report suggested that the city continue to
monitor this land supply to determine if additional primary employment land is necessary.
The conclusion that there is an adequate supply of primary employment lands is still valid today.
Relatively little land has been converted to non-employment uses and the vacant land supply
remains robust. There are over 2,300 acres of vacant land in the zone districts that would
accommodate the bulk of primary jobs, representing over 25,000 potential new jobs. The
removal of 94 acres would reduce the employment build-out by a year or two. However, there
are still many sites that could accept large and small primary employers.
Vacant employment land has attracted many requests for conversion to non-employment uses. If
the City is to retain an adequate supply and attract primary employers, it needs to carefully assess
the benefits and drawbacks of those requests. Staff concludes that the Harmony Rd/Zeigler
request results in a minimal loss in employment land supply.
28I North Collene Avenue • I'.O.Eo%580 • Fort Collins,CC_;80522-0580 . (970)22 -657-:
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Vacant Employment Land Supply Analysis
Employment land is defined here as lands in the E-Employment, HC-Harmony Corridor, and I-
Industrial zone districts. These are the zone districts that accommodate the majority of primary
jobs, while other non-residential zone districts are mostly oriented to non-primary retail and
service jobs.
Compared to 2003, the supply of employment land is only slightly less (see Table 1). There
were three factors that resulted in the loss or gain of vacant land since then. First, in 2004, 106
acres of employment land were downzoned to residential uses. The two projects were:
o Trailhead Annexation, residential project, 89 acres.
o Oakridge Business Park, Continuing Care Senior Campus,modification to allow more
than 25% secondary uses, 17 acres.
Table 1: Vacant Lands Inventory
Zone Acres Potential Jobs %of Total
Employment 838 11,000 33%
Harmony Corridor 583 9,100 27%
Industrial 921 5,200 15%
Subtotal 2,342 25,300 75%
All Other Districts 817 8,355 25%
Grand Total 3,159 33,655 100%
Second, several small parcels were developed for employment uses in 2003 and 2004.
Third, staff changed the way buildable lands were identified. Prior to 2004, vacant lands under
entitlement were removed from the BLI. However, this produced an artificially low yield of
jobs because the future jobs within these entitlements were not captured elsewhere. Today, the
BLI includes any vacant non-residential property whether entitled or not in order to estimate all
potential future jobs.
The future jobs supply will most likely be boosted through redevelopment and increased
employment on the Foothills Campus. While it is impossible to predict how many new jobs will
be produced, EPS estimated approximately 5,000 new jobs generated through redevelopment.
Also, CSU expects to add 280 employees by 2009.
If redevelopment estimates are added to potential jobs from vacant lands (33,655), the total
supply of jobs is 39,048. The estimated build-out year based on a demand for 138,535 jobs in
2025 (source: EPS) would be around 2022 (see Table 2).
Table 2: Comparison of Job Supply to Demand
Existing supply Future supply Total Supply 2025 Demand Capacity of Buildout Year
(Vacant+ (Existing+ (EPS Existing GMA
Redev.) Future) Projection) (Supply—
Demand)
93,288 39,048 132,336 138,535 -6,200 2022
2
Table 3 shows vacant employment land under entitlement. The majority of the entitlements have
occurred in the Harmony Corridor district(193 acres). The largest entitlements include the PVH
Harmony Campus (95 acres) and Harmony School Shops (13 acres). In addition, approximately
24 acres of vacant HC land is under development review.
Table 3: Vacant Employment Land Under Entitlement
Zone Gross Vacant Entitled Net Vacant
Employment 838 3 832
Harmony Corridor 583 193 390
Industrial 921 25 896
Total 2,342 221 2,121
Certain factors reduce the job yield of vacant lands. Constrained land, including floodplains and
natural features constitute 647 acres (28%) of all vacant employment lands. Some of this land is
partially developable and some of it may be fully developable if these constraints are mitigated
or removed. In addition, 25% of the Employment and Harmony Corridor land is typically used
for secondary,retail or residential uses.
Table 4 below shows the available supply if constrained land, secondary uses, and the Bayer site
were netted out. A conservative scenario shows a net employment land supply of 1,362 acres.
The BLI accounts for these vacant land reductions in its estimates of potential future jobs. Of
course the job yield of vacant land is likely to be higher if constrained land is mitigated or
secondary uses occupy less than 25% of the available supply.
Table 4: Reductions to Employment Land
Zone Vacant Constrained 25%Secondary Uses Bayer Available to
Acres (unconstrained land only) Proposal Development
Employment 838 201 158 n/a 479
Harmony 583 65 81 94 343
Corridor
Industrial 921 381 n/a n/a 540
Total 2,113 647 239 94 1,362
273 acres of the net vacant HC land is within the Harmony Technology Park ODP (anchored by
the Celestica Building on Harmony Road). The majority of vacant Employment land (448 acres
or 54%) is owned by Anheuser-Busch. Eight of the 22 parcels over 5 acres are owned by A-B.
Table 5 and 6 show the acreage available with sites over 5 and 10 acres in size within each of the
listed zones.
Table 5: Vacant Employment Parcels Greater than 5 Acres in Size
Zone Parcel Count Acres Mean Size(Acres)
Harmony Corridor 18 496 28
Employment 22 739 34
Industrial 30 823 27
Total 70 2,058 29
3
Table 6: Vacant Employment Parcels Greater than 10 Acres in Size
Zone Parcel Count Acres Mean Size(Acres)
Harmony Corridor 12 458 38
Employment 15 699 47
Industrial 21 765 36
Total 48 1,922 29
Compared with 2003, there are 4 fewer sites now over 10 acres in size and 158 fewer vacant
acres.
A Harmony Corridor Plan change from employment to retail would result in the replacement of
future primary jobs with retail jobs. The 2003 EPS report estimated that 2,614 high tech jobs
would be replaced by 1,713 retail jobs if the lifestyle center covered 90 acres. These figures are
likely to be similar with the proposed 94-acre regional shopping center. The high-tech jobs
represent 29% of the current job supply in the Harmony Corridor and 8% of the overall supply.
Thus, according to EPS, 900 fewer jobs are likely to result and on average pay much less.
The EPS report stated, "The City retains plenty of large employment land potential, even with
the removal of the entire 140 acre Harmony Road site." It explained that 35 companies the size
of LSI Logic(12 acres and 325 employees) could still be accommodated in the HC vacant land
inventory. Today, if the 94 acres were removed from the BLI, then there would still be 11 sites
greater than 12 acres in size on a total of 353 acres. This could accommodate 29 companies
equal to the size of LSI Logic.
4
Attachment 4
imp
• Economic &.
Planning Systems
Real Fstate Econamvs
Feg�nnalEroromirs
R bbc Finance
Land Use ftU,
MEMORANDUM
To: Greg Byrne,Joe Frank,and Pete Wray
From: Dan Guimond and Josh Birks
Subject: Front Range Village Sales Tax Potentials Analysis-Preliminary Findings
Date: December 7,2005
This memorandum summarizes Economic&Planning Systems (EPS) preliminary
evaluation of the retail development potentials,sales tax revenues,and economic and
market impacts associated with the proposed Front Range Village Project at Harmony
Road and Corbett Drive in Fort Collins,Colorado. Front Range Village is proposed by
Bayer Properties as a major power center anchored by a super center and home
improvement center with approximately 900,000 square feet of total development at
• buildout. The information is presented in the following sections:
• Executive Summary
• Trade Area Profile
• Proposed Development Program
• Market Flexibility and Timing
• Sales Projections and Capture
• Land Use Considerations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The proposed Front Range Village is a 900,000 square foot power center anchored by
two large format stores, a super center estimated at 225,000 square feet and a home
improvement center estimated at 140,000 square feet.The developer,Bayer Properties
also shows as potential tenants a 97,400 square foot department store,60,000 square foot
"anchor store', 30,000 square foot bookstore,five additional"junior anchors" averaging
40,000 square feet each,150,900 square feet of shops,40,000 square feet in outparcel
space,and a 15,000 square foot drug store. Based on sales per square foot estimates from
Bayer Properties' consultant,the Front Range Village total development program is
estimated to generate$391 million in annual sales,$270 million in net new sales per year
(86.7 percent), and$7.9 million in net new sales taxes per year at buildout.
• OENVER BE R N E LEY SA C RAM ENTO
� • �v ,v.:.'.. i..n.; ... _: Jl. i`e`-4 .. .`It, f GSJ_XrJ10
November 28,2005
Page 2
Although the proposed 900,000 square foot development program could be
accommodated on the 90-acre site, there are questions about the feasibility of certain
project elements including the department store,anchor store,the amount of shop space,
and the type of development on outparcels. It is very unlikely that all of this space is
feasible,at least in the short run. EPS has estimated a more likely realistic phase of
development including an estimated 550,000 square feet of proposed space comprised of
the super center,home improvement center, four mid boxes,and the remainder in small
stores and outparcels.
If the proposed 900,000 square foot Front Range Village was completed EPS estimates
the project would generate$264 million in annual retail sales and$63.6 million in net
new sales to the City or 24.1 percent of the total. These net new sales would generate an
estimated$1.9 million in net new sales tax revenues per year at buildout. An estimate of
retail sales growth between 2005 and 2010 suggests that it would take approximately ten
years to absorb 900,000 square feet of regional retail at the Bayer site.
The 550,000 Phase I development program evaluated by EPS is estimated to generate
$171.9 million in annual retail sales and$44.3 million in net new sales to the City or 25.8
percent of the total. These net new sales would generate an estimated$1.3 million in net
new sales tax revenues per year at buildout. By comparison,the previously evaluated
500,000 square foot lifestyle center proposal was estimated to generate$190 million in
annual sales with 43 percent net new sales,and$2.4 million in net new sales tax
revenues. The Phase I development program is estimated to fully absorb in 5 to 7 years.
The market competition factors for this project are more immediate and compelling than
the estimated sales tax revenues. The Fort Collins retail trade area draw will be reduced
by the Centerra project as well as other future regional retail centers outside the City's
border. If Fort Collins is to maintain its place as the regional core and compete with new
regional retail locations outside of the City,it will need to develop new regional retail
locations within its borders. Although the Bayer site may not be optimum,it is the only
viable site for a major regional retail node currently available within the City.
The most significant current regional retail proposal outside the City is located at the
northeast corner of I-25 and Harmony in the Town of Timnath. The site is controlled by
Goldberg Properties,Inc,an experienced power center developer in Denver. The 90
acres site includes a 60 acre reservoir on the northern section and 30 acres of developable
land facing Harmony Road. Based on an estimated development program of 275,000
square feet the project will either increase outflow retails sales or decrease retail inflow
sales reducing retail sales within Fort Collins by an estimated$32.8 million. The loss of
these estimated retail sales will result in a loss of an estimated$935,000 in retail sales tax
revenue to the City.
The Goldberg project,located less than 2 miles from the Bayer property,will likely be
pursuing many of the same tenants and therefore compete directly with the subject
property. If Bayer has the ability to attract at least two of the potential large format
retailers,it may have the ability to preclude the development of the Goldberg property,
15859M1307do,
November 28,2005
Page 3
• at least in the short run. Because the Goldberg project has a superior location,it is likely
to develop in the long run even if the Bayer project moves forward.
The continued growth and expansion of other regional shopping centers will impact the
existing retail districts within Fort Collins. However,these shopping districts,such as
South College and Foothills Mall,will continue to play a role within the larger region.
South College may experience a drop in inflow of retail sales and tenant turnover but
will remain a strong retail location supported by population and income growth. In
addition,there is an opportunity for Foot Hills Mall to become a more upscale regional
center unique in the region.
TRADE AREA PROFILE
This section reviews the Fort Collins regional trade area characteristics including trade
area definition, population and income,total personal income,and retail competition.
TRADE AREA DEFINITION
Retail businesses derive their sales from local area residents,residents of the larger
region, and visitors,including both tourists and business travelers. The Urban Land
Institute (ULI) defines a trade area as the geographic area from which a retail facility
• consistently draws most(the majority)of its customers. The actual boundaries of the
trade area are arbitrary and based on logical jurisdictional and geographic boundaries.
All sales are accounted for as either from within the trade area or from outside. Retail
sales from within the trade area are defined as local capture,and sales from outside the
trade area are considered retail inflow. Retail expenditures by trade area residents in
other locations are considered retail outflow or leakage.
Based on the existing distribution of sales,the primary trade area for regional retail
goods is defined as the City of Fort Collins. The primary trade area includes several
major existing regional retail locations such as the Foothills Mall on College Avenue
north of Horsetooth, additional discount department stores and power centers north and
south of the Mall on College,and the historic central business district.
These retail centers attract a significant portion of their sales from the larger region
oriented to Fort Collins for major commercial services. A secondary trade area was
therefore defined including the remainder of Larimer County,Weld County,Colorado,
and Laramie County,Wyoming. The secondary trade area includes several
communities that have reached a size to support their own regional retail centers
(Cheyenne,Greeley,and Loveland),reducing the Fort Collins regional draw. However,
residents from these communities still shop in Fort Collins for retailers not present in
their own communities.
•
15859M32-07.dn,
November28, 2005
Page 4
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
Population and households within the City of Fort Collins grew rapidly between 1990
and 2000 by 2.9 percent annually. Growth tapered off between 2000 and 2005,while the
population and number of households grew by approximately 1.3 percent annually,
reaching 127,000,as shown in Table 1. Household size remained constant throughout
the time period.
Household incomes grew more rapidly during the 15 years between 1990 and 2005. The
average household income increased by 96 percent from$34,000 annually in 1990 to
$67,000 in 2005. Incomes grew rapidly during the 1990s at an average annual rate of 5.0
percent. Similar to population and household growth,income growth slowed between
2000 and 2005 to 3.8 percent annually.
Households earning over$75,000 increased rapidly between 1990 and 2000 at an average
annual rate of 15.9 percent. Between 2000 and 2005 growth among households at or
above$75,000 remained strong at a rate of 7.2 percent annually. As a result,households
earning over$75,000 account for 32 percent of total households in 2005,up from 8
percent in 1990.
15859M12-07dnc
November 28, 2005
Page 5
• Table 1
Primary Trade Area Demographics
Front Range Village Sales Analysis
Primary Trade Area Avg.Annual Growth
Characteristic 1990 2000 2005 1990.2000 2000-2005
Demographics
Population 89,555 118,652 126,879 2.9% 1.3%
Households 34,328 45,882 49,196 2.9% 1.4%
Household Size 2.6 2.6 2.6
Income
Household Median $26,941 $44,518 $51,991 5.2% 3.2%
Household Average $34,268 $56,037 $67,385 5.0% 3.8%
Per Capita $13,380 $22,133 $26,529 5.2% 3.7%
Income Distribution
Less than $10,000 6,150 3,903 3,619 -4.4% -1.5%
$10,000 to$29,999 12,467 11,306 10,327 -1.0% -1.8%
$30,000 to $49,999 8,158 10,232 9,824 2.3% -0.8%
$50,000 to$74,999 5,047 9,031 9,444 6.0% 0.9%
• $75,000 to$99,999 1,569 5,614 6,454 13.6% 2.8%
$100,000 to$149,999 743 3,826 6,477 17.8% 11.1%
$150,000 or more 271 1 857 3 051 21.2% 10.4%
Total 34,405 45,769 49,196
Source:Clantas;Economic&Planning Systems
Ha15859-FoO Collins Regional Retail Collins
The population and number of households within the secondary trade area grew rapidly
between 1990 and 2005 at a rate of 2.7 percent annually,as shown in Table 2. The total
population of the secondary trade area reached 451,000 in 2005. Households increased
rapidly at a rate of 2.7 percent as well. The average household size remained constant
throughout the 15-year period at 2.7 persons per household.
Similar to the primary trade area,the secondary trade area average household income
grew significantly between 1990 and 2005 by a total of 94 percent. In addition,households
earning$75,000 and more increased in share of total households. In 2005,these
households account for 30 percent of the total compared to 6 percent in 1990.
•
15859M72-07.do,
November 28,2005
Page 6
Table 2
Secondary Trade Area Demographics
Front Range Village Sales Analysis
Primary Trade Area Avg.Annual Growth
Characteristic 1990 2000 2005 1990-2000 2000.2005
Demographics
Population 301,539 395,375 450,946 2.7% 2.7%
Households 111,703 146,451 166,937 2.7% 2.7%
Household Size 2.7 2.7 2.7
Income
Household Median $27,713 $44,907 $51,916 4.9% 2.9%
Household Average $34,011 $56,120 $66,109 5.1% 3.3%
Per Capita $12,873 $21,380 $25,055 5.2% 3.2%
Income Distribution
Less than $10,000 15,870 9,828 9,980 4.7% 0.3%
$10,000 to$29,999 43,861 35,488 33,903 -2.1% -0.9%
$30,000 to$49,999 30,413 36,346 36,456 1.8% 0.1%
$50,000 to$74,999 15,373 32,462 36,747 7.8% 2.5%
$75,000 to$99,999 3,940 16,590 21,691 15.5% 5.5%
$100,000 to$149,999 1,660 10,558 19,217 20.3% 12.7%
$150,000 or more 923 5 316 8 943 19.1% 11.0%
Total 112,040 146,588 166,937
Source:Claritas;Economic&Planning Systems
HM5858-Font Collins Regional Retail Ana1ysis\DaWgl555&demogslslSecontlary TA
TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME
Total personal income (TPI) is calculated by multiplying the number of households
within a trade area by the average household income. The TPI within the primary trade
area grew by 5.2 percent annually between 2000 and 2005 to$3.3 billion. During the
same time period the TPI within the secondary trade area grew by 6.1 percent annually
to$11.0 billion. The combined total personal income of the primary and secondary trade
area totaled$14.4 billion in 2005,as shown in Table 3.
15859M12-01.Jac
November 28,2005
Page 7
• Table 3
Total Personal Income
Front Range Village Sales Analysis
Avg.Ann.
2000 2005 Increase
City of Ft.Collins(Primary Trade Area)
Households 45,882 49,196 1.4%
Average HH Income $56,037 $67,385 3.8%
Subtotal Income($000s) $2,571,090 $3,315,072 5.2%
Secondary Trade Area'
Households 146,451 166,937 2.7%
Average HH Income $56,120 $66,109 3.3%
Subtotal Income($000s) $8,218,830 $11,036,038 6.1%
Total Personal Income($000s) $10,789,920 $14,351,111 5.9%
Larimer County,CO excluding Ft.Collins;Weld County,CO;and Laramie County,WY
Source:Claritas;Economic&Planning Systems
H\15859_Fon Collins Ro tonal Refill AMlyslsRbeelsJ15858-l0FY xlslTsl-mniinetl
PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
• Bayer Properties has proposed the development of a major commercial shopping center
development anchored by two large format stores,a super center estimated at 225,000
square feet(e.g.,Super Target,Super Wal-Mart),and a home improvement center
estimated at 140,000 square feet(e.g.,Lowe's,Home Depot). The preliminary
development program includes approximately 900,000 square feet of total development
at buildout, as shown in Table 4.
Although no leases have been signed,the developer is reportedly courting big box
anchor tenants. The attraction of these major tenants could in turn attract a range of
smaller mid box national mass merchandisers in the electronics,books and music,home
furnishings,office supplies,and sporting goods store categories. A number of stores not
already present in the Fort Collins market, such as Brookstone (electronics),Pottery Barn
(home furnishings),and Borders Books appear to be supportable in the Fort Collins market
and therefore could be candidates for this site. There may also be the potential for
second store locations for a more limited group of tenants.
The developer has lister]these stores as junior anchors and estimates six such stores
(including the bookstore) in the development program shown in Table 4,with a total of
176,000 square feet of space. The development program also includes 150,900 square feet
of shops (presumed to be smaller specialty stores),40,000 square feet of outparcels
(presumed to be primarily restaurants and fast food establishments),and a 15,000 square
foot drug store.
•
15859M12-07,doc
November 28,2005
Page 8
Based on sales per square foot estimates from Bayer Properties' consultant,the Front
Range Village total development program is estimated to generate$311 million in
annual sales at buildout and$270 million in net new sales per year,which is 86.7 percent
of the total. If these sales levels were to be achieved,it would result in$7.9 million in net
new sales tax returns per year to the City.
Table 4
Front Range Village(Harmony Road Site)
Fort Collins Regional Retail Analysis
Sala.Tax Sales I New Sales
Retail Store Rare Size SgFt Total Sales Percent New New Sales Tax Revenue
Large-Format Retailers
Dept.Store 3.00% 97,400 $250 $24,350,000 100.00% $24,350,000 $730,500
Super Center
Grocery 2.25% 60,000 $400 $24,000,000 60.00% $14,400,000 $324,000
General Merchandise 3.00% 165000000 $400 $66,000,000 60.00% $39,600,000 $1,188,000
Subtotal 225,000 $90,000,000 $54,000,000 $1,512,000
Home Improvement 3.00% 140000000 $425 $59,500,000 100.00% $59,500.000 $1,785,000
Total 462,400 $173,850,000 $137,850,000 $4,027,500
Mid-Box Retailers
Anchor Store 3.00% 60,000 $250 $15,000,000 100.00% $15,000,000 $450,000
Book Store 3.00% 18,000 $350 $6,300,000 100.00% $6,300,000 $189,000
Jr.Anchor 3.00% 30,000 $225 $6,750,000 100.00% $6,750,000 $202,500
Jr.Anchor 3.00% 30,000 $200 $6,000,000 50.00% $3,000,000 $90,000
Jr.Anchor 3.00% 30,000 $275 $8,250,000 100.00% $8,250,000 $247,500
Jr.Anchor 3.00% 30,000 $250 $7,500,000 100.00% $7,500,000 $225,000
Jr.Anchor 3.00% 38 000 $400 $151200.000 100.00% $15,200,000 $456,000
Total 236,000 $65,000,000 $62,000,000 $1,860,000
Ancillary
Shops 3,00% 150,900 $275 $41,497,500 100.00% $41,497,500 $1,244,925
Outparcels lease(3) s.00% 21,000 S450 $9,450,000 75.00% $7,087,500 $212,625
Outparcels sale(2) 3.00% 19,000 $500 $9,500,000 100.00% $9,500,000 $285,000
Drugstore 3.00% 15000 $800 $12,000,000 100.00% $12,000,000 $360,000
Total 205,900 $72,447,500 $70,085,000 $2,102,650
Total/Average 904,300 $344 $311,297,500 86.71% $269,935,000 $7,990,050
Source:Bayer,Eureka!Ventures
H\19350-Fo„Collins Region Relell Pnil y n000ilelo[15556Ba,s,Ropaay,xls)BaW P,o'.SYes
15859MI2-07dor
November 28, 2005
Page 9
• MARKET FEASIBILITY AND TIMING
Although the proposed program could be accommodated on the 90-acre site,there are a
number of feasibility and timing issues to be considered. There are also questions about
the market supportability of a number of project elements,including:
Department Store-The project has a 97,400 square foot department store in the
development program. The one department store previously signing a letter of
intent for this site (when it was a lifestyle center project)is considering another site.
It is also unlikely that other department stores will commit to this shopping center
format,at least in the current market.
• Anchor Store-The program includes a 60,000 square foot anchor store. The likely
anchors will be the super center and home improvement center,and secondarily the mid
boxes (junior anchors). It is unclear what additional anchor tenant store is anticipated.
• Shops-The project has an estimated 150,900 square feet of small shop space. This is
a large amount for a power center format which is typically dominated by mid and
large boxes with a much smaller amount of small store space.
• - r 4 0 Outparcels There>s 0, 00 square feet of outpazcel space shown, generating retail
sales of$450 to$500 per square foot. These sales numbers are associated with major
chain and fast food restaurants. It is likely that a portion of this peripheral space will
• be non-retail office and service uses,which do not generate retail sales.
It is very unlikely that all of this space is feasible,at least in the short run. EPS has
estimated a more likely realistic phase of development including an estimated 550,000
square feet of proposed space comprised of the super center,home improvement center,
four mid boxes,and the remainder in small stores and outparcels. This assumed Phase I
development program is used in the sales projection below. Bayer Properties should be
requested to provide their estimated Phase I development program before final City review.
SALES PROJECTION AND CAPTURE
This section estimates the retail sales inflows and outflows within the City of Fort
Collins. First, the existing expenditure patterns of Fort Collins residents are estimated,
specifically the amount of retail purchases made by store category within the trade area
and outside the primary trade area. The portion of purchases not made locally is retail
outflow or leakage. Second,the distribution of primary trade area retail store sales is
estimated. Retail sales are separated into sales to local residents (local expenditures) and
inflow from residents outside the primary trade area as well as visitors.
15859M12-07doc
November 28,2005
Page 10
In addition,this section summarizes the resultant sales tax revenues associated with the
proposed Front Range Village project. The proposed power center anchored by a super
center will bring additional retail space to Fort Collins. However, the goods provided
by these retailers will not always be unique or new to Fort Collins. Thus, only a portion
of the sales from these stores will net new sales.
SALES FLOW ANALYSIS
The inflow/outflow analysis of existing sales as of 2004 identifies leakage in three key
store categories: Department Stores and Other General Merchandise with an estimated
20 percent leakage,Furniture and Home Furnishings with an estimated 40 percent
leakage,and Building Material and Garden stores with an estimated 25 percent leakage,
as shown in Table 5 and further described below:
• Department Stores-Although there are existing mid-market department stores
(including JC Penney,Sears,and Foley's),the largest gap is the absence of high-end
department stores (e.g.,Neiman Marcus,Saks,and Nordstrom). The majority of the
department store leakage flows out to Flatiron Crossing Mall,Cherry Creek,and
other Denver metro area shopping centers.
• Home Furnishings-In percentage terms,this store category has the largest leakage
of all shoppers goods category stores. This is partially due to the fact that while
some of the large furniture chains have local stores,many of the specialized home
furnishings stores have not moved in (including Restoration Hardware,Pottery
Barn,Williams Sonoma,and Crate&Barrel). Another factor is that, given the lack of
store options, a greater proportion of purchases for these goods is being made locally
in other store categories,in particular discount department stores.
• Home Improvement/Garden-This retail category is increasingly dominated by
Home Depot,Lowe's,and to a lesser extent The Great Indoors. Fort Collins had one
Home Depot in 2004 with a second store opening in 2005. Some of the leakage
shown is likely attributable to the fact that Home Depot is the only major store in the
local market.
The local expenditures from Table 5 are shown as sales to residents with the remainder
comprised of inflow from residents of the secondary trade area or visitors. An estimated
65 percent of store sales overall are to local residents with an estimated 35 percent
inflow. The greatest levels of inflow are in General Merchandise,Other Shoppers
Goods, and Eating and Drinking,as shown. The distribution of existing Fort Collins
retail sales is shown in Table 6.
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November 28,2005
Page 13
• SALES FORECAST AND SALES TAX REVENUE
The proposed Front Range Village would be a project of regional significance with the
potential (depending on the store mix)to reduce retail leakage and to increase retail
sales inflows. How much net new sales the center will generate-as opposed to
transfers of sales from existing stores-will be based on the specific store mix and
whether these stores are new to the market area and/or provide a unique product line
or shopping experience not already present.
The impacts of the proposed new power center have been estimated in order to
determine the level of new sales that will occur at the regional shopping center. Two
scenarios have been modeled the project as proposed by Bayer properties and an
estimated first phase of development.
Scenario A: Bayer Proposal
The estimated reductions in existing expenditure outflows and retail sales inflow
increases are shown in Table 7 and are based on the proposed 904,000 square foot
development program presented by Bayer. The major impacts are discussed below:
The grocery portion of the super center store is not expected to reduce existing
resident sales outflow within the Supermarkets/Grocery store category but may
result in modest increases in retail inflow sales by 15 percent. The general
• merchandise portion of a new super center is also not expected to reduce General
Merchandise sales outflow,given the existing presence of all the major discounters
in the City. The super center attraction may modestly increase retail inflow sales in
the same category by 10 percent if it is a store not already present in the City.
• A new proposed drugstore is not estimated to reduce outflow within the Health and
Personal Care store category,given the number of drugstores already present. A
new drug store at this location could increase inflow by 10 percent due to the site's
location on the edge of the City and its access to the growing population in the
Windsor area.
• The inclusion of a home improvement center not already present in the market could
result in an estimated reduction of 15 percent of outflow of Building and Garden
sales and an increase in inflow sales by 20 percent.
• In the Other Shoppers Goods store categories, the potential for new mass
merchandisers (mid box stores) would have the effect of reducing outflow sales and
increasing inflow. What is yet to be determined is the actual store mix. A new
bookstore, regardless of the specific chain,is not likely to generate new sales.
However, a number of the home furnishings stores not already present could have
an impact. The sheer number of new stores could have the affect of drawing
consumers to this location over others within the larger region. The analysis
estimates that there would be a 10 percent reduction in Other Shoppers Goods
outflow and a 10 percent increase in inflow.
•
15859M12-07.doc
November 28,2005
Page 14
• Given the number of existing restaurant options in the market,the proposed
restaurants are not expected to reduce the outflow sales within this category but
could increase inflow sales by 5 percent.
Based on the potential new sales outlined below,Front Range Village is estimated to
generate$264 million in total retail sales and$63.6 million,or 24.1 percent net new sales.
These net new sales would generate an estimated$1.9 million in net new sales tax
revenue,as shown in Table 8.
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Page 16
Table 8
Fort Collins Retail Sales by Store Type—Bayer Proposal
Fort Collins Regional Retail Analysis
Proposed Development Estimated Net New
Sales Taz Sales I Net New Percent Sales Tax
Retail Store Rate Size SgFt Total Sales Sales Net New Revenue
Supermarkets/Grocery
Supercenter 2.25% 60,000 $400 $24,000,000 $4,598,101 19.2% $103,457
Health and Personal Care
Drugstore 3.00% 15,000 $700 $10,500,000 $147,248 1.4% $4,417
General Merchandise
Department Store 3.00% 97,400 $250 $24,350,000 $6,864,022 28.2% $205,921
Supercenter 3.00% 165000 $300 $49.500.000 $11,800,686 23_8% $354,021
Total 262,400 $73,850,000 $18,664,709 25.3% $559,941
Other Shopper's Goods
Anchor Store 60,000 $250 $15,000,000 --- — ---
Book Store 18,000 $300 $5,400,000 -- -- --
Jr.Anchor 30,000 $250 $7,500,000 -- -- --
Jr.Anchor 30,000 $250 $7,500,000 -- -- --
Jr.Anchor 30,000 $250 $7,500,000 -- -- --
Jr.Anchor 30,000 $250 $7,500,000 -- -- --
Jr.Anchor 38,000 $250 $9,500,000 -- --- --
Shops 150 900900 $250 $37,725,000 -- --- ---
Total 3.00% 386,900 $97,625,000 $23,471,349 24.0% $704,140
Eating and Drinking
Outparcels lease(3) 21,000 $400 $8,400,000 -- -- -
Outparcels sale(2) 19y00 $400 $7 600 000 -- -- --
Total 3.00% 40,000 $16,000,000 $9,764,731 61.0% $292,942
Building Material&Garden
Home Improvement 3.00% 140,000 $300 $4.2,000,000 $7,000,035 16.7% $210,001
Total/Average 904,300 $292 $263,975,000 $63,646,172 24.1% $1,874,899
Source:Bayer;Eureka!Ventures:Economic&Planning Systems
H\15W5 Fo,1 Collins Replmal R all Ana,aia dsV15959.IC£Iov1201 v )Beier WtN 58es Esl
Using the potential sales generated by the adjustments in outflow and inflow discussed
above, the net new sales by store category are summarized below:
• The grocery sales from the super center will result in an estimated 19.2 percent net
new sales or$4.6 million. The General Merchandise sales from the super center are
estimated to result in 23.8 percent net new sales or$11.8 million.
• A new drugstore will generate 1.4 percent net new sales or$147,000 in new sales.
• The array of new mass merchandisers (junior anchors)will generate$23.5 million in
net new sales,which is 24 percent of total projected sales of($97.6 million).
15859M12-07.dac
November 28,2005
Page 17
• • The proposed home improvement store is estimated to generate$7.0 million in net
new sales or 16.7 percent of projected sales ($42.0 million).
• The largest percentage of net new sales is estimated to occur in the Eating and
Drinking store category with an estimated 61.0 percent of projected sales ($16.0
million) or$9.8 million.
In summary,the estimated$1.9 million in net new sales tax revenues is the estimated
total expected from a 904,000 square foot power center anchored by two new large
format stores not already present in the City as well as a large component of additional
mid box mass merchandisers and smaller store space. Based on the information
provided to date,there is no assurance that this development program is feasible.
There is also no assurance as to the timing of the project and when this level of revenues
would accrue to the City.
Scenario B: Estimated Phase I
An estimated first phase of development is analyzed below. These numbers can be
refined if the developer provides a more specific development program. It is unrealistic
to try to predict the impacts of a later phase of development at this time.
The estimated reductions in existing expenditure outflows and retail sales inflow
increases are shown in Table 9 and are based on the estimated 550,000 square foot
• development program for Phase I. The major analysis points are
summarized below:
• The existing expenditure outflows and retail sales inflow adjustments used for the
super center in the proposed 904,000 square foot project remain the same for this
scenario,both in the grocery and general merchandise categories.
• The same outflow and inflow assumptions used for the drugstore above apply to
this scenario.
• The inclusion of a home improvement center not already present in the market could
result in an estimated reduction of 15 percent of outflow of Building and Garden
sales and an increase in inflow sales by 20 percent.
• In the Other Shoppers Goods store categories,the potential for new mass
merchandisers (mid box stores)would have the effect of reducing outflow sales and
increasing inflow. What is yet to be determined is the actual store mix. A new
bookstore,regardless of the specific chain,is not likely to generate new sales.
However, a number of the home furnishings stores not already present could have
an impact. The analysis estimates that there would be a 10 percent reduction in
Other Shoppers Goods outflow and a 5 percent increase in inflow.
•
15859M12-07.doc
November 28, 2005
Page 18
• Given the number of existing restaurant options in the market,the proposed
restaurants are not expected to reduce the outflow sales within this category but
could increase inflow sales by 5 percent.
Based on the potential new sales outlined below, a first phase of is estimated to generate
$171.9 million in total retail sales and$44.3 million,or 25.8 percent net new sales. These
net new sales would generate an estimated$1.3 million in net new sales tax revenue,as
shown in Table 10.
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November 28,2005
Page 20
Table 10
Fort Collins Retail Sales by Store Type
Fort Collins Regional Retail Analysis
Proposed Development Estimated Net New
Sales Tax Sales I Net New Percent Sales Tax
Retail Store Rate Size SgFt Total Sales Sales Net New Revenue
Supermarkets/Grocery
Supercenter 2.25% 60,000 $400 $24,000,000 $4,598,101 19.2% $103,457
Health and Personal Care
Drugstore ao0% 15,000 $700 $10,500,000 $147,248 1.4% 54,417
General Merchandise
Department Store 3.00% 0 $250 $0 -- --- --
Supercenter 3.a0% 165000 $300 $49,500,000 -- -- ---
Total 165,000 $49,500,000 $13,546,295 27.4% $406,389
Other Shopper's Goods
Anchor Store 0 $250 $0 -- -- ---
Book Store 18,000 $300 $5,400,000 — — ---
Jr.Anchor 30,000 $250 $7.500,000 -- -- --
Jr.Anchor 30,000 $250 $7.500,000 — --- --
Jr.Anchor 30,000 $250 $7,500,000 — --- ---
Jr.Anchor 0 $250 $0 — — ---
Jr.Anchor 0 $250 $0 — -- ---
Shops 40 000 $250 $10,000,000 — -- ---
Total 3.00% 148,000 $37,900,000 $14,160,674 37.4% $424,820
Eating and Drinking
Outparcels lease(3) 10,500 $400 $4,200,000 -- -- ---
Outparcels sale(2) 9 500 5400 $3,800,000 — --- --
Total 3.00% 20,000 $8,000,000 $4,882,365 61.0% $146,471
Building Material&Garden
Home Improvement 3,00% 140,000 $300 $42,000,000 $7,000,035 16.7% $210,001
Total/Average 548,000 $314 $171,900,000 $44,334,719 25.8% $1,295,556
Source:Beyer;Eureka!Ventures;Economic&Planning Systems
H\156 Fan Coll Ire Reglmal Rtall Anyy¢ieN euIi15859-I0FIaw1201.ds)EPS Ner Saes Est
Using the potential sales generated by the adjustments in outflow and inflow discussed
above,the net new sales by store category are summarized below:
• The grocery sales from the super center will result in an estimated 19.2 percent net
new sales or$4.6 million. The General Merchandise sales from the super center are
estimated to result in 27.4 percent net new sales or$13.5 million.
• A new drugstore will generate 1.4 percent net new sales or$147,000 in new sales.
• The array of new mass merchandisers (junior anchors)will generate$14.2 million in
net new sales,which is 37.4 percent of total projected sales of($37.9 million). This
level of new sales capture would require the store mix to be largely stores not
already present in the market,so it is certainly a best case optimistic scenario.
75859M12-07.do,
November 28,2005
Page 21
•
The proposed home improvement store is estimated to generate$7.0 million in net
new sales or 16.7 percent of projected sales ($42.0 million).
The second largest percentage of net new sales is estimated to occur in the Eating
and Drinking store category with an estimated 61.0 percent of projected sales ($8.0
million) or$4.8 million.
In summary,the estimated$1.3 million in net new sales tax revenues is the estimated
total expected from a 550,000 square foot power center anchored by two new large
format stores not already present in the City as well as a large component of additional
mid box mass merchandisers and smaller store space.
For comparison purposes, the net sales tax revenues estimated for the lifestyle center
previously proposed by Bayer Properties is compared to the current development
project in Table 11 below. A 500,000 square foot Bayer lifestyle center was projected to
generate$190.0 million in annual sales with 43 percent net new sales resulting in an
estimated$2.4 million in net new sales tax revenues to the City. The current power
center project Phase I estimated development program of 548,000 square feet is
estimated to generate$171.9 million in annual sales,26 percent net new,resulting in an
estimated$1.3 million in net new sales taxes.
15859M12-07.Aor
November 28, 2005
Page 22
Table 11
Fort Collins Retail Sales Comparison: Power vs. Lifestyle Center
Fort Collins Regional Retail Analysis
Factor Lifestyle Center Power Center
Total Square Feet 500,000 548,000
Total Retail Sales 190,000,000 171,900,000
Av. Sales Per Sq. Ft. 380 314
Net new Sales 80,800,000 44,300,000
Percent Net New 43% 26%
Source: Economic&Planning Systems.
W15859-Fon Collins Regional Rebid A lyisWdels\I15559-Center Compans sxlslShwtI
ABSORPTION OF NEW SPACE
EPS also estimated what period of time would be required to absorb the additional
increment of retail space proposed. Based on the household forecasts for the 2005 to
2010 time period described earlier and 1 percent real income growth,retail sales are
estimated to increase to$1.54 billion from $1.38 billion, an increase of approximately
$162.5 million, as shown in Table 9. These net new sales have been distributed between
four major retail categories:convenience goods,shopper's goods,eating and drinking,
and building material and garden.
Overall,the$162.5 million in net new retail sales would not cover the proposed 904,000
square foot development,which requires an estimated$264 million in new sales. The
estimated retail sales growth would only account for an estimated 62 percent of the
required sales (assuming that the proposed development absorbs all the retail sales
growth within the City over the next five years). It is highly unlikely that the proposed
project will be the only retail development to occur in the next five years. Given other
retail development and the significant gap between required sales and retail sales
growth, it would likely take over ten years for the 904,000 square foot proposed
development to absorb.
The estimated Phase I development program with 550,000 square feet would require
$171.9 million in new sales. The estimated retail sales growth would account for an
estimated 95 percent of the required sales (assuming Phase I absorbs all the retail sales
growth within the City over the next five years). Phase I will most likely not be the only
retail development to occur over the next five years. Therefore,Phase I will most likely
require between five and seven years to fully absorb. Although optimistic,the estimated
Phase I development has the benefit of being market feasible in a reasonable time frame.
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November 28,2005
Page 24
LAND USE CONSIDERATIONS
The initial decision to be addressed by the City is the rezoning of the property to allow
for the power center development. The existing zoning is specific to the lifestyle center
previously proposed by Bayer Properties. The market and economic factors affecting
this land use decision are summarized below.
REGIONAL RETAIL DEMAND
Currently,most regional retail uses are concentrated in the College Avenue corridor. As
the City, and more importantly as the retail trade area grows,there will be market
opportunities to develop additional regional retail locations. The most significant new
retail location in the region is the Centerra project in Loveland,which currently has a
new Lowe's improvement center and lifestyle center as well as an existing Target store
and outlet mall. Additional power center retail uses are also expected at Centerra in the
near future.
If Fort Collins is to successfully compete with regional retail locations outside of the
City,it will need to develop new regional locations within its borders. Although the
Bayer site may not be optimum,it is the only viable site for a major regional retail node
currently available in the City. From the economic perspective of more retails sales tax
capture, the zoning change to allow for the power center may be in the City's best
interests. This factor however will need to be balanced against other competing policy
objectives,including the preservation of land for employment uses.
IMPACTS OF TIMNATH RETAIL DEVELOPMENT
The City of Fort Collins retail trade area will also be impacted by the development of
other proposed regional retail centers outside the City's border. The most significant
current proposal is located at the northeast corner of I-25 and Harmony in the Town of
Timnath. This site is controlled by Goldberg Properties,an experienced power center
developer based in Denver. From a regional access perspective, the Goldberg site has
some advantages with its proximity to I-25.
The 90 acre site includes a 60 acre reservoir on the northern section. The remaining 30
acres will be split into four parcels for retail development. One of the parcels will be
large enough to accommodate a large-format retailer. For purposes of this analysis we
assumed that the site would develop at between a 0.20 or 0.25 floor area ratio (FAR).
The results would be between 260,000 and 327,000 square feet of commercial retail
space.
The proposed Goldberg-Flatirons retail development would be a project of regional
significance with the potential(depending on store mix) to increase retail leakage from
the City of Fort Collins and to decrease retail sales inflows. How much sales loss will
15859M12-07.doc
December 2,2005
Page 25
• occur will be based on the specific store mix and whether these stores are new to the
market area and/or provide a unique product line or shopping experience not already
present.
The impacts a power center anchored by a supercenter would have to the City of Fort
Collins have been approximated using a hypothetical development program. The
development program includes a 200,000 square foot supercenter(140,000 square feet of
general merchandise and 60,000 square feet of grocery) and three junior anchor stores of
approximately 25,000 square feet each, as shown in Table 12.
Table 12
Goldberg&Flatirons Development Program
Sales Tax Impacts of Timnath Retail
Characteristic Factor
Site Description
Size 30 Acres
Retail Space(Low) 0.2 FAR 261,360 sgft
Retail Space (High) 0.25 FAR 326,700 sqft
Development Program
• Supercenter 200,000
Junior Anchor(3) 25,000 sqft 75 000
Total 275,000
Source:Town of Timnath;Economic&Planning Systems
R\1585&Fort Collins Regional Retail Ana1ys1s\MWdsQ15859-IOFIo 1201.x1s)Timnath Dev Prog
The estimated increases in existing expenditure outflows and retail sales inflow
reductions are shown in Table 13 and are based on the estimated 275,000 square foot
development program for the site. The major analysis points are summarized below:
• The grocery portion of the supercenter is expected to result in a modest increase in
resident sales outflow (5 percent)within the Supermarket/Grocery store category
and reduce retail inflow sales by 20 percent.
• The general merchandise portion of a new supercenter is expected to increase
resident sales outflow by only 5 percent within the General Merchandise store
category,due to the attraction of the supercenter. The supercenter will decrease the
retail inflow sales by a modest 10 percent, given the presence of additional
discounters within the City. The supercenter will intercept consumers who would
have traveled into Fort Collins for equivalent merchandise.
• The additional junior anchors (mid-boxes)will have a modest impact on resident
outflow sales and retail inflow sales. The City of Fort Collins already contains most
of the typical junior anchor tenants. Thus,the bulk of the sales to these retailers will
• come from the power center's ability to intercept consumers heading to Fort Collins.
15859M12-07.doc
December 2,2005
Page 26
However,with only four retailers,not all trips to Fort Collins will be precluded by
the development of this site.
Based on the potential new sales outlined below,the Goldberg-Flatirons site is estimated
to generate$84.8 million in total retail sales and$32.8 million,or 38.7 percent will come
from Fort Collins residents. These sales would generate an estimated$935,000 in sales
tax revenue losses, as shown in Table 14.
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•
IMPACTS ON EXISTING RETAIL DISTRICTS
The demographics suggest that the Fort Collins region is poised for retail expansion. Ifs
not a matter of when or which of retailers will enter the market but where they will
choose to locate. Most of retail tenants prefer a regional shopping center location that is
central and has the ability to attract consumers from all over the trade area. The City of
Fort Collins provides a central location for retailers.
The continued growth and expansion of other regional shopping centers will impact the
existing retail district within Fort Collins. However, these shopping districts,such as
South College and Foothills Mall will continue to play a role within the larger region.
The existing retail tenants on South College will continue to support the surrounding
neighborhoods. The addition of new regional shopping centers elsewhere within the
trade area will not diminish the importance of South College to Fort Collins. The district
will probably see a drop in inflow of retail sales,and will likely see some turnover in
tenants as can be expected from any increase in competition. However,South College
should remain a strong retail location and growth in incomes and population
surrounding the district will, over time,replace the initial losses.
There is an opportunity for Foothills Mall to become a more upscale regional center
unique in the region and to play a similar role in the Fort Collins trade area that Cherry
• Creek plays within the Denver metro area or Flatlrons Crossing Mall plays in the
Boulder quadrant. New high-end lifestyle tenants will help solidify Foothills Mall as a
major regional shopping center unique within the trade area that will attract shoppers
from the entire region.
•
15859M32-07.do,
Attachment 5
Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment
Proposed Front Range Village Regional Shopping Center
Risk Analysis
December 30, 2005
Introduction:
This analysis is in response to the proposed Front Range Village Project, located on the
northwest corner of Harmony and Ziegler Roads by the developer Bayer Properties. The
proposed retail development is on 94 acres and approximately 900,000 square feet in
size, including potentially two "big-box"stores larger than 110,000 square feet.
As a result, these two super center stores would require an amendment to the Harmony
Corridor Plan and Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines to allow a regional
shopping center at this specific location.
The primary purpose in conducting this analysis is to provide a response to questions
raised by the citizens during public meetings and staff discussions relating to concerns of
potential outcomes of an approval of the Plan amendment, or subsequent development
project.
Risk Analysis:
City staff has prepared several scenarios and potential associated risks (what can go
wrong?) to understand the expected consequences for each scenario. A summary of this
analysis is provided in the staff agenda item to supplement other additional information
staff has provided prior to a final decision on the Plan Amendment. Information
including economic analysis,potential sales tax impact and land use considerations are
included in the Memorandum from Economic &Planning Systems (EPS) dated
December 7, 2005 and is not part of this analysis.
The following scenarios were identified:
Scenario 1
Bayer Properties proceeds with a project development plan after Plan Amendment
approval and completes construction of the entire retail center.
Potential Risks
A. The Bayer project development may preclude other sites within Harmony
Corridor from being supported for a future shopping center.
Risk Analysis
Page 2
Presently the Harmony Corridor Land Use Plan has two existing regional shopping
centers. This site has a previously approved mixed-use activity center designation that
would allow a third large shopping center, described as a"Lifestyle Center". Will the
City consider adding a fourth activity center setting the stage for another shopping
center? Staff will have to assess future requests individually in determining maintaining
an appropriate balance of primary employment and commercial uses along the corridor.
To date, Kechter Road has been the eastern edge of locations for mixed-use activity
center designations along Harmony Road-
B. Other commercial properties in GMA along I-25, large enough to support
a regional shopping center, may be courting the same retail tenants as
Bayer.
These other commercial properties (primarily adjacent to Mulberry and Prospect/I-25
Interchanges)will not be development ready with available infrastructure for at least 5
years. Successful development of the Bayer site will likely delay retail development at
other large sites at the interchanges, which would also likely delay private funding to
improve them. If one of these properties comes forward to develop at a later time, other
retail tenants may be available. Staff has assessed there are other sites in the GMA
suitable for large retail tenants.
C. New Center by Bayer may force closure of existing stores (same retailer),
or similar retailers in other locations in the City.
The continued growth and expansion of other regional shopping centers will impact the
existing retail districts within Fort Collins. However, these shopping districts, such as
South College Avenue and Foothills Mall, will continue to play a role within the larger
region. According to EPS analysis, South College may experience a drop in inflow of
retail sales and tenant turnover but will remain a strong retail location supported by
population and income growth. The City has already experienced closure of existing
stores such as Shopko. The market over time should provide opportunities for new retail
tenants to "back-fill'existing vacant stores. In addition, there is an opportunity for
Foothills Mall to become a more upscale regional center unique in the region.
D. New "big-box" stores in Bayer shopping center go vacant in future.
Bayer has stated they will be in control of the entire shopping center and maintain a
vested interest in the overall success of the center. If a retailer leaves, the vacant space
would be leased by the developer as quickly as possible.
However, the impact of a large big box tenant closing is far greater and will have a direct
effect on attracting shoppers to the remaining tenants in the Center.
E. Employment option at this location is lost.
Risk Analysis
Page 3
This is a risk. However, the City Council was willing to acknowledge this outcome in
2003 with the approval of a Plan amendment to allow a Mixed-Use Activity Center and
potential"Lifestyle Shopping Center" at this location. In addition, staff has assessed the
inventory of vacant developable lands within the GMA and concluded there is sufficient
supply of employment lands for the next 15—20 years.
Scenario 2
After Plan Amendment approval, only a portion of the project proves to be feasible for
development in the short to mid-term.
Potential Risks
A. Remaining site sits undeveloped with lost potential for establishing full
regional shopping center.
This is a potential real outcome staff is concerned about. The Planning and Zoning Board
discussed an option to add language in the definition outlining a phasing plan where other
portions of the center need to be built prior to completing additional large retail buildings,
which typically are built first. Staff will continue to assess if this change could be
incorporated into the Plan, or address in a future development agreement with the
developer.
B. Infrastructure is not completed such as streets, lighting, storm drainage,
and utilities.
Depending on the assessed impacts of the initial phase of development, only those
infrastructure improvements needed to serve that phase will be required. With additional
phases, the remaining infrastructure improvements will then be completed.
Residents living in the English Ranch neighborhood expressed strong concerns about
future local street connections and impacts of traffic through neighborhood. In reviewing
the concept plan for the proposed shopping center, future local street connections
between the neighborhood and shopping center would not be built until the vacant
property develops to the north. A more detailed traffic impact analysis will follow if a
development project is submitted.
Scenario 3
After Plan Amendment approval, Bayer Properties decides to sell property to another
developer.
Potential Risks
A. Site may not get developed for many years.
Risk Analysis
Page 4
This is a risk, but one that is out of our control. It might be mitigated to some degree by
placing a time limit on the land use designation, and requiring the project to proceed to
retain the regional retail overlay.
B. Potential concept by Bayer is changed by new developers and earlier
expectations of community are affected as well.
In 2003, with the approval for a Lifestyle Center, the community and adjoining
neighborhoods formulated expectations for a particular type of commercial shopping
center. Presently, Bayer is proposing a different type of retail center. They are
describing it as potentially a mix of discount retailers and some small tenants. If the
property is sold to another new developer, these earlier expectations of a quality project
could be impacted.
With any proposed development, staff will review the project for compliance with our
adopted design and development standards. From an architectural and site planning
standpoint, any project being developed should result in a quality design. However, we
do not have control of which tenants locate in a shopping center.
Scenario 4
After Plan Amendment approval, nothing happens on site for several years, staying
vacant.
Potential Risks
A. Loss of potential net new sales tax revenues.
The site is vacant presently. Eventually, the developable property will move forward
with a future project and can develop either as a commercial center, or as employment
and some limited secondary uses. Potential sales tax revenue estimates are included in
the EPS analysis.
B. Other properties within Harmony Corridor may not be considered for a
future retail center.
One option to consider is to place a time limitation on the Plan amendment. This would
retain the option to consider another location for a larger retail center on the Corridor at a
future date. This condition has not been used in the past.
Another option is the City considers new retail center locations along the corridor as
requests come in. Similar to the analysis conducted for this site, staff will assess the pros
and cons and or trade-offs of another location for a mixed-use activity center. A potential
option if another retail center is supported is to consider removing the existing
designation at the Bayer site.
Risk Analysis
Page 5
If demand for new retail in City continues,pressure to develop other sites may increase in
future. If Bayer proceeds with a PDP and gets approval, they will be vested for 3 years
and have secured intersection capacity based on traffic impact assessment for the project.
C. Potential retail tenants targeted for the Bayer site locate outside of GMA
such as in Timnath.
This outcome may happen anyway and is outside the control of the City. This is also true
if the Plan Amendment is not approved and the property sits vacant as a result.
Scenario 5
The Plan Amendment is not approved by Council.
Potential Risks
A. Targeted retailers locate outside if GMA.
The potential development by Goldberg , located less than 2 miles from the Bayer site on
the Timnath side of I-25, will likely be pursuing many of the same tenants and therefore
compete directly with the subject property. If Bayer has the ability to attract at least two
of the potential large format retailers, it may have the ability to preclude the development
of the Goldberg property, at least in the short run. Because the Goldberg project has I-25
frontage, it is likely to develop in the long run even if the Bayer project moves forward.
B. Loss of net new sales tax revenue.
See EPS analysis.
Conclusions:
The Risk Analysis exercise is valuable additional information to be used in making a
decision to amend the Plan. Staff is supporting the proposed amendment and subsequent
project development plan for a regional shopping center based on all of these
deliberations. The associated risks are minimal in allowing a third regional shopping
center within the Harmony Corridor
Attachment 6
Comparison of Shopping Centers
December 30, 2005
shte I rt)1ia+ie +cs
Primary mix of specialty retail stores Wide selection of general
(less than 20,000 sq. ft.) merchandise
No more than 9 stores between 1 —2 anchor stores as principal
20,000 — 50,000 sq. ft. and 2 dept tenants
stores less than 110,000 sq. ft.
Situated on 40 — 85 acres Located on 30 — 70 acres
Between 200,000 — 800,000 sq. ft.GFA Minimum 250,000 sq. ft. GFA
Minimum of 25 independent retail stores At least 15 independent businesses
Sit-down restaurants, grocery stores, Wide variety of services and
entertainment facilities and theaters recreational facilities
High quality site and building design Discount department stores
Open air setting with buildings fronting
pedestrian network with Central
gathering place
Similar Charaeci�Eics
Planned and developed as unit
Serve community and region
Retail stores as inline occupants
Outdoor gathering spaces
Restaurants
Attachment 7
Harmony Corridor Plan Amendment
Summary of Comments from Public Meeting held on November 30`h,2005
Fort Collins Marriott Hotel
Staff gathered citizen comments herd or written during the public meeting held at the Fort Collins
Marriott Hotel on November 30`', 2005. Approximately 120 people attended the combination
neighborhood and open house format public meeting. The following list is a summary of comments
received to date:
1. Overall observation of tone of comments reflected general support for the proposed Plan
Amendment and future project. While concerns were raised about the potential impacts of a
regional shopping center, a majority of citizens at the meeting supported the proposed tenant mix,
new tax revenue benefit for community and recognized the potential threat of outside competition
for the same tenants locating outside of Fort Collins.
2. Specific Comments:
• Neighborhood impacts of proposed project
• Increased traffic on adjacent arterial streets and local streets
• Cut-through traffic through English Ranch Neighborhood on Kingsley Drive
• As an altemative to multiple local street connections to English Ranch Neighborhood,
provide an alternative pedestrian/bike connection in place of street between shopping
center and neighborhood
• Keep on table discussion to incorporate branch library into shopping center
• Improve pedestrian crossing at Corbett Drive/Harmony Road
• Promote local businesses locating in shopping center
• Concerned of loss of Employment land with proposed shopping center
• The market is supportive of this type of retail center and it is better to capture tax revenue
now from a regional shopping center than wait for large employer locating at this location
on Harmony, which is less likely to happen
• We need this type of retail shopping and support the proposed project
• Concerned of safety and impacts of project on neighborhoods including traffic, noise and
visual appearance
ORDINANCE NO. 011, 2006
OF THE COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF FORT COLLINS
AMENDING THE HARMONY CORRIDOR PLAN AND THE HARMONY
CORRIDOR STANDARDS AND GUIDELINES TO ADD A 'REGIONAL
SHOPPING CENTER" DESIGNATION IN THE MIXED-USE ACTIVITY CENTER
LOCATED AT THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF HARMONY ROAD AND
ZIEGLER ROAD AS SHOWN ON THE LAND USE MAP AND TO REVISE
THE TEXT OF THE DEFINITION OF 'REGIONAL SHOPPING CENTER"
WHEREAS,the Council of the City of Fort Collins,by Ordinance No.28, 1991,adopted the
"Harmony Corridor Design Standards and Guidelines"; and
WHEREAS, by Ordinance No. 187, 1994, the Council amended the Harmony Corridor
Design Standards and Guidelines to include not only standards and guidelines for the general design
of the Harmony Corridor but also to include standards and guidelines for the design of certain
shopping centers and retail uses in the Harmony Corridor, as well as land use and locational
standards and guidelines for all land uses in the Harmony Corridor and certain definitional standards
and guidelines; and
WHEREAS,the owner of certain lands located at the northwest corner of Harmony Road and
Ziegler Road has proposed an amendment to the Harmony Corridor Plan and Harmony Corridor
Standards and Guidelines to add a "regional shopping center'within the"mixed-use activity center'
located at the northwest comer of Harmony Road and Ziegler Road,which would be in addition to
the previously contemplated uses in such "mixed-use activity center"; and
WHEREAS,the property owner has also proposed an amendment to the Harmony Corridor
Standards and Guidelines to amend the scale standards pertaining to Harmony Corridor Regional
Shopping Centers so that the maximum acreage of such a regional shopping center would be
increased from 70 acres to 100 acres; and
WHEREAS, the Council has determined that the "land use plan" maps in the Harmony
Corridor Plan and in the Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines should be amended to add
'Regional Shopping Center' as has been requested, and that the maximum size of a "Harmony
Corridor Regional Shopping Center' should be increased from 70 acres to 100 acres.
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT ORDAINED BY THE COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF FORT
COLLINS as follows:
Section 1. That the"land use plan"maps as contained in the Harmony Corridor Plan and
the Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines are hereby amended to appear as shown on Exhibit
"A" attached hereto and incorporated herein by this reference.
Section 2. That the Harmony Corridor Regional Shopping Center Standards pertaining
to the "scale" of the Harmony Corridor Standards and Guidelines are hereby amended to read as
follows:
Scale:
• A regional shopping center shall be situated on thirty(30)to seventy (?6 one
hundred (100) acres. (+)
• A regional shopping center shall contain at least fifteen (15) independent
business establishments with separate public entrances. (+)
• A regional shopping center should continue the City's tradition of having
small and medium size shops supplementing the principal tenant(s). (o)
• A regional shopping center shall contain at least 250,000 square feet of gross
floor area. (+)
Introduced and considered favorably on first reading and ordered published this 17th day of
January, A.D. 2006, and to be presented for final passage on the 7th day of February, A.D. 2006.
Mayor
ATTEST:
City Clerk
Passed and adopted on final reading this 7th day of February, A.D. 2006.
Mayor
ATTEST:
City Clerk
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