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HomeMy WebLinkAboutMinutes - Futures Committee - 11/18/2024 -1 CITY OF FORT COLLINS FUTURES COMMITTEE MEETING Date: November 18, 2024 Location: Zoom Time: 4:30pm-6:00pm Committee Members present: Councilmember Melanie Potyondy Councilmember Julie Pignataro Councilmember Tricia Canonico (arrived late) Additional Council members present: City Staff: Caryn Champine Additional Staff present: Kelly DiMartino, City Manager Teresa Roche, Human Resources Director Dean Klingner, Community Services Director Melina Dempsey, FC Moves Meeting called to order at 4:30pm Approval of Minutes: Councilmember Pignataro moved to approve the September 9, 2024 minutes. Chair Potyondy seconded. Motion passed 2-0. Chairperson Comments: Chair Potyondy noted the speaker will provide a presentation then facilitate an exercise with committee members. Shaping the Future with the Three Horizons Framework, Hauson Le, Strategic Foresight Manager with the Alliance for Innovation (AFI) Topic Overview: Hauson Le, Strategic Foresight Manager with the Alliance for Innovation, will provide an overview of the Three Horizons Framework and how it is used to shape the future while balancing current day demands. Le stated the Alliance for Innovation is a non-profit dedicated to foresight and innovation for local government and noted the City of Fort Collins is a member. Structured Approach for Shaping the Future • Past few years have included dozens of major disruptions that force adaptation on the fly • Technology adding to the complexity – has become a force of disruption itself • If you aren’t thinking about change today, you’re falling behind – VUCA World o Volatile – leaders must operate in a chaotic and turbulent context o Uncertain – leaders are mired in constant uncertainty and change o Complex – leaders are confronted with increasingly interconnected and complex systems 2 o Ambiguous – leaders are overloaded with new information but lack clarity on what is important Added with local government: o Pressure – leaders are facing immense pressure in local government to respond to change with limited resources • Need new tools to navigate the VUCA-P world, which is where foresight comes in and VUCA-P becomes: o Vision o Understanding o Clarity o Agility o Potential • Three Horizons – perspectives and strategies for the future o The future is unknown, yet we must act on it o We can reduce uncertainty about the future with collective coordinated action o We want to shape the future rather than react to it in the presence of other people’s (sometimes competing) visions o Framework: time on x-axis, strategic fit with the external environment on the y-axis (how well something fits the world or meets a need) ▪ First Horizon represents the current prevailing system, assumes business as usual will sustain, but actually loses relevance with the changing world over time. First Horizon decreases in fit for purpose over time. ▪ Foresight is about reducing the gap between the baseline future and the alternative future. ▪ Third Horizon is the future that we want: marginal ideas in response to dynamic environment that exist in the world today. Eventually overtakes the old system and becomes the new normal. Third Horizon grows in fit for purpose over time. ▪ Second Horizon is bridge between the other two horizons: unstable transition and competing alternative paths – a temporary period between two dominant systems. ▪ Three Horizons recognizes that multiple timeframes exist simultaneously and that no solution is forever. ▪ Horizon One: Manager – support, heritage, legacy – today, what is so ▪ Horizon Two: Entrepreneur – ideas, innovation, allyship – how do we get to horizon three ▪ Horizon Three: Visionary – hope, inspiration, aspiration – what is the future we want ▪ Anything can be repurposed in a way that grows fit for purpose o Strategic Questions: ▪ What is business as usual and how did we get here? ▪ Why is it not fit for purpose anymore? ▪ What’s worth keeping? ▪ What is the future we want? ▪ What signals are present today? ▪ Who can solve these problems? Councilmember Pignataro asked if there is an easy way to qualify what will and will not work with this methodology. Le replied it can be applied to any topic and cited an example of pickleball, which currently has a high fit for purpose, but may not in the future when there is no more land available for courts; therefore, the third horizon could be something like virtual sports. Le stated this methodology is 3 not needed for things about which the answer is known, but is useful for cases in which the unknown exists. Councilmember Canonico stated she has been hearing concerns from constituents about loud vehicles and what can be done to enforce noise violations. She suggested using that topic of noise for the Three Horizons exercise. Le asked questions of the Committee members, including the time frame, hallmark characteristics of noise in Fort Collins today, what about the system is losing fit for purpose, what needs are not being met due to increased noise, what should be brought forward into the future, what is the ideal future of noise in Fort Collins, what are strategies that could be used to get there, what innovations are addressing the problems of today, and how to be proactive about ensuring the innovations do not extend the life of horizon one and accelerate the transition toward horizon three. Le presented the Three Horizons graph that resulted from the ideas presented. Le outlined the ‘Stories from the Future’ component of the exercise which involves imaging we are in a future in which the third horizon is now the new normal and asking ourselves how we got here. Committee members created ideas for what the future would be called. Outcomes: • Create an awareness of change that balances current operational needs with strategic future planning. • Empowered to apply the Three Horizons framework. • Walk away with shared language for change, uncertainty, and competing priorities. • Identify and appreciate different perspectives on the value and purpose of change. Councilmember Pignataro suggested applying the framework to the City’s budgeting process. Champine noted the Transforming Local Government conference will occur in April. Councilmember Potyondy adjourned the meeting at 5:45 pm. MEETING MINIUTES APPROVED AT THE FEBRUARY 10, 2025 COUNCIL FUTURES COMMITTEE MEETING