HomeMy WebLinkAboutMinutes - Futures Committee - 02/12/2024 -1
CITY OF FORT COLLINS
FUTURES COMMITTEE MEETING
Date: February 12, 2024
Location: Zoom
Time: 4:00pm-5:30pm
Committee Members present:
Councilmember Tricia Canonico
Councilmember Julie Pignataro
Councilmember Melanie Potyondy
Additional Council members present:
City Staff:
Caryn Champine
Presenters:
Nancy Gedeon, State Demography Office
Additional Staff present:
Kelly DiMartino, City Manager’s Office
Melina Dempsey, FC Moves
Rachel Ruhlen, FC Moves
Jacob Castillo, Sustainability Services Area
Meeting called to order at 4:00pm
Approval of Minutes:
Councilmember Pignataro moved to approve the November 2023 minutes. Councilmember Potyondy
seconded. Motion passed 3-0.
Chairperson Comments:
N/A
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Forecasting Population and Employment
If…Then: Trends and Transitions in Fort Collins and Larimer County, Nancy Gedeon, State
Demography Office
Section 1: Population Trends
• Population growing at slowing rate – births down, deaths up
o Colorado 12th in country for total growth, 18th in percent growth, growth rate about twice
nation as a whole from 2020-2022
o Larimer County in top 5 counties for population growth in Colorado from 2021-2022
o Fort Collins saw largest growth in net numbers in county from 2010-2020 with an 18%
change, though that was a bit slower growth rate than Larimer County as a whole
o Decrease in the number of births to younger mothers and increase in number of births to
older mothers from 2011-2020 – overall decrease in number of births – trend expected to
continue
o Larimer County had an increase in 18 and under population from 2010-2020, but that age
range increase only accounted for 5% of the growth in the state
• Migration and mobility slowing – harder to attract and retain labor force
o The amount of net migration to the state is highly correlated to the number of new jobs in
the state
o Colorado’s unemployment rate is 13th lowest in country
o Largest age group of incoming migrants to Colorado is 25-38 – early career young adults,
families, and University students
o Most older adults in Colorado are aging in place
o Larimer County and other University-influenced counties have most incoming migration
of 18–24-year-olds with outgoing migration of 25-30 year-olds
• Concentrated growth
• Aging – impacts everything
o Largest share of future growth is 65+
o Prime working age and youth becoming smaller share of total population
o Aging affects preferences in housing, income level, and service demands
o In 2023, 30-year-olds made up the largest group in Colorado
o Larger share of population in older age groups in Colorado
o Higher number of 20-year-olds in Larimer County due to CSU, but other state trends hold
including decreasing numbers of children and an increase in older age groups
o Projection for population from 202-2030 for Colorado: increase by about 10% with
increase in 0–4-year-olds, decrease in school age population, and largest percentage
increase in 75–84-year olds
o Larimer County population anticipated to increase faster than state as a whole at about
13%
• Increasing racial and ethnic diversity
o Younger populations are more racially and ethnically diverse than older populations
statewide
Section 2: Housing: Supply vs. Demand
• Levels of homebuilding have slowed in 2023, particularly in single-family units
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• Multi-family unit building permits have increased in total building permit share – primarily rental
apartments
• Housing unit construction in Colorado over the past few years has increased despite the annual
change in population not being as high as in previous years
• Household size and vacancy have decreased
Section 3: Implications from Aging
• Labor force continues to be tight
o 200,000 retirements over the next five years
• Consumer and service demand changes which drive the economy
• Housing
o Older adults aging in place
o Demand from new workers
o Millennials – aging into prime and second home ownership
o Gen Z – aging into housing and first time homebuying
• Increasing diversity
o Younger residents are more diverse
Section 4: Population Forecast 2050
• State population expected to be 7.49 million, or an increase of 1.65 million from 2020 to 2050
with the largest increases in counties along the Front Range
• Uncertainties
o International migration
o Slower national growth, competition for labor
o Housing supply, costs compared to rest of nation
o Industry changes, automation
o Natural disasters, water
Questions and Discussion:
• Is there household population versus housing units data at the city level – yes, on Demography
Office website for at least the past ten years.
• Councilmember Pignataro asked if the 2025 jobs jump was due to making up for the drop during
the pandemic. Ms. Gedeon replied in the affirmative.
• Councilmember Pignataro asked if job statistics take into account working from home. Ms.
Gedeon replied there is some data available in terms of which industries have the ability to work
from home. There is some data as to individuals who may live in Colorado but hold a job in
another state and vice versa. Councilmember Pignataro noted the impact on the community is
different for those who retire from those types of remote jobs as they can be filled by someone
elsewhere.
• Councilmember Canonico asked if there was a shift in terms of which states were losing and
gaining population due to the pandemic and/or natural disasters. Ms. Gedeon replied there were
some changes in long-standing patterns from 2020-2022, though some of that is shifting back.
The most concrete shift in terms of natural disasters was the population loss in Louisiana in 2005
due to Hurricane Katrina. Others are not as easily distinguishable.
• Councilmember Potyondy noted housing construction in Timnath, Johnstown, Berthoud, and
other municipalities is outpacing Fort Collins leading to greater increases in population growth.
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• Jacob Castillo, Chief Sustainability Officer, commented on inter-regional connectivity and asked
if there is any data regarding how people move by age group. He noted a changing population
and associated change in how people transport themselves may affect environmental
considerations around climate change. He questioned how older age groups interact with transit.
Ms. Gedeon replied there is data on commuting via the OnTheMap tool, including data on age,
income, industry, and commute distance. Ms. Gedeon discussed the American Community
Survey which includes questions about modes of transportation, but that is primarily geared
toward commuting and not non-work trips.
• Champine noted Transfort ridership data could be helpful. Additionally, an update to system
optimization could include a lens related to demographics and population trends.
• Ms. Gedeon noted some counties and municipalities have a surplus of jobs and some have a
surplus of people.
Additional Items
• Councilmember Pignataro – do we need a new Chair and could meetings be pushed to 4:30?
• Champine stated staff will make the time changes and meetings occur every other month,
possibly with some day or time adjustments depending on the speakers.
• Councilmember Potyondy stated she would take on the Chair position – nomination will occur at
April meeting.
Meeting adjourned by Councilmember Canonico at 5:20 pm