HomeMy WebLinkAboutMinutes - Futures Committee - 08/14/2017 -
City Manager’s Office
300 LaPorte Avenue
PO Box 580
Fort Collins, CO 80522
970.221.6505
970.224.6107 - fax
fcgov.com
MINUTES
CITY OF FORT COLLINS
FUTURES COMMITTEE MEETING
Date: August 14, 2017
Location: CIC Room, City Hall, 300 Laporte Ave.
Time: 4:00–6:00pm
Committee Members Present:
Wade Troxell, Chair
Ray Martinez
Kristin Stephens
City Staff:
Darin Atteberry, City Manager
Jeff Mihelich, Deputy City Manager
Jackie Kozak-Thiel, Lead Staff
Presenters:
Elizabeth Garner, Colorado State Demographer
Wade Troxell, Mayor
Additional Staff Present:
Jackson Brockway, Business Analyst
Sean Carpenter, Climate Economy Advisor
Honore Depew, Environmental Planner
Kelly DiMartino, Assistant City Manager
Kevin Gertig, Utilities Executive Director
Jason Komes, Waste Reduction/Rec Program Assistant II
Sarah Meline, Waste Reduction/Rec Program Assistant I
Caroline Mitchell, Sr. Environmental Planner
Chris Johnson, Bike Fort Collins
Molly Saylor, Environmental Planner
Rebecca Stava-Hicklin, Administrative Assistant
Community Members:
Dale Adamy, Fort Collins citizen
Ann Hutchison, Fort Collins Area Chamber
Sung O, Fort Collins citizen
Meeting called to order at 4:08 pm
Approval of Minutes:
2
Ray moved and Wade seconded a motion to approve the July 10, 2017
minutes as presented. Motion passed unanimously, 2-0-0 (Councilmember
Stephens was not yet present at the meeting).
Think Tank Item 4-2017:
Growth in Numbers: What do changing demographics in Colorado tell us about our
future?
Elizabeth Garner, Colorado State Demographer, presented a high level summary of past
and impending population and economic transitions for Colorado and the North Front
Range.
Biggest takeaway: the North Front Range and especially Fort Collins and Larimer
County, are part of a whole. Planning for these transitions 30-50 years out is important
and unique for communities to do.
Big transitions to watch, include:
o Migration – can we continue to attract and retain the best and the brightest? If so,
where do we house them?
o Age and aging – what does our age distribution look like? At different ages we do
things differently – shop, bike, etc.
o Labor force growth is slowing – will we have enough workers to keep up with the
job creation rate?
o Industrial transitions – retail is the second largest employer in region, but Amazon
Prime is changing everything rapidly. What will happen in the manufacturing and
construction industries?
o Racial and ethnic diversity – young population aging into workforce is much
more diverse now than in the past. What are we doing to ensure we’re getting
everyone into labor force?
o Growing and slowing population
o Slowing income growth
Population change:
o The U.S. is currently experiencing the slowest growth rate since the 1930s, but
Colorado’s population growth is ranked the 7th fastest in the nation.
Other trends include:
Natural increase in births minus deaths is going to be slowing. This
is caused by a slowing in birth rate and an increase in deaths – not
an increase in death rates, but an increase in deaths due to the
larger share of the population in ages that tend to die.
o Fort Collins has a 2.0% population growth rate, but 1/3 of counties in CO are
declining in population.
Can we do a better job leveraging the connection between this urban
center and the rest of the state to promote growth in other counties?
o By 2040, CO will see a population growth of 2.8 million people; 2.4 million of
those in the Front Range.
Why do people come to Colorado?
o Answer: jobs
Net migration follows a business cycle. Young people are the largest share
of population migration and Larimer County tends to attract very young
people.
o National trend: slow job growth in the U.S. as a whole, slower migration.
3
Migration is slowing down because of our age
distribution.
Boomers are aging out of the labor force. 1 million
people are aging out of the workforce while job growth is occurring; both
impacting the economy.
o Elizabeth frequently gets asked if CO really needs more migrants. Her response:
Are you going to continue to create jobs? If so, then yes.
One of the fastest growing industry clusters is the service area which allows business
professionals to work remotely.
o So many more of these types of jobs can also be outsourced out of the country at
lowest cost.
o This trend of remote employment is predicted to grow, but grow nationally or
internationally?
o Connectivity is a huge, major state priority.
Millennials: peak millennial born in 1990; currently 27 years old.
o In CO, demand for apartments is high because of growth in age groups that
typically rent apartments.
o But don’t assume millennials will never buy a home – the average age of a
homebuyer is 38. Millennials are currently aging into homeownership.
o Elizabeth warned about making assumptions of millennials – follow ages, not just
generations. The population tends to behave certain ways based on age.
Aging
o By 2030, there will be growth in 75-84 year old age group. Long-range planning
should consider the potential for more services to meet this population’s needs.
o Issues:
Where do the aging groups spend their dollars? Answer: Healthcare and
accommodation/foods services.
Housing: people aging out of workforce, but doubtful they’ll want to leave
Fort Collins. Where will new workforce be able to live?
Downward pressure on income
Increasing health needs/disabilities
Downward pressure on public finance
o Municipalities should prepare for impacts on labor force, sales tax, and property
tax.
o Fort Collins, Larimer County, and Loveland have all been at the forefront of
planning for aging.
Increasing racial and ethnic diversity
o Over 60% of increase in working population is going to be Hispanic. Question:
what are we doing to make sure they’re prepared for labor force?
Increase marketing to people in middle school and high school.
Q&A
In reference to migration, when discussing attracting and retaining, who are we talking
about?
o The best fit people for the right jobs.
o In any one year, CO brings in about 250,000 people and about 190,000 leave.
Are the large amounts of aging seniors impacting all of CO?
o Aging can be a huge economic driver because the spending of seniors supports
about ¼ of a job per person. Pretty big economic driver.
o This age group is growing about 6% per year.
Larimer County and state influences – who is influencing who?
4
o Answer: it is definitely a symbiotic relationship.
o North Front Range is a little insulated, but not on the
growth side. Likely not able to avoid the state’s growth.
Thoughts on what will change in the fact that we’re becoming more racially and
ethnically diverse?
o Huge disparity in the less than high school range where over ¼ of Hispanic
population has less than a high school degree.
o Already seeing so many constraints in labor force at the entry-level. Might
already be this supply of new workers not being prepared. Don’t know all of
industries they could go into.
o Now is a great time to take advantage of offering internships.
DO: Next Steps
Need to focus on workforce and partnerships
Keep an eye on the highest growth and lower earning population and vice versa –
important trend to watch in terms of sales tax in community
Stage of life is different than generations – when preparing for millennials consider stage
of life
Changing ethnic demographics – make sure people understand workforce options. Ensure
that City Plan touches upon preparing for the changing demographics.
Compare forecasts at municipal level – share forecasts with Elizabeth.
Bloomberg Harvard City Leadership Initiative
Mayor Wade Troxell reported that he traveled to NYC in mid-July for the in-residence
portion of the initiative. It consisted of daytime classes and field-trips to various sites. For
example, the cohort traveled to FDR’s memorial on Roosevelt Island.
Takeaways:
o Data of all 40 cities compared to each other in terms of economic mobility. Fort
Collins is about third in this category.
o Action memos were utilized during classes. When someone was speaking you’d
write an action item on a memo to be given to the speaker after class.
Darin mentioned excitement over learning to operationalize city as a platform and the
idea of co-creation. Everyone has ability to co-create over next 100 years.
Kelly added that Fort Collins has great focus areas with City Fund and City Foundation.
Public narrative and motivating change topics are what she is excited to hear.
Operationalizing initiatives.
Meeting adjourned at 5:52 pm