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TALENT 2.0|WORKFORCE STRATEGY
FORT COLLINS – LOVELAND MSA
FEBRUARY 2017 CAROLINE ALEXANDER TOM STELLMAN
INTRODUCTION
1
We have over 20 years of experience
in over 200 unique communities,
across 38 states
& 4 countries.
SERVICES
STRATEGIC
PLANNING
WORKFORCE
ASSESSMENT
ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS
Image credit: DSC_0110 by Bri Weldon via Flickr (CC BY 2.0)
Auburn, WA – Economic Development Strategy
Austin, TX – Workforce Master Plan
Fort Campbell, KY – Regional Economic Diversification Strategy
Fort Worth, TX – Economic Development Strategy
Green Bay, WI – Economic Development Strategy
Kern County, CA – Regional Economic Diversification Strategy
Massachusetts Development Authority – Defense Industry Diversification Strategy
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN – Core City Districts Strategy
Northern Iowa Corridor – Economic Development Strategy
Northwest Florida – Economic Development Strategy
Oregon Talent Council – Workforce Study & Investment Strategy
Savannah River Site, SC – Consequences Analysis
South Carolina I-77 Alliance, SC – Labor Study & Target Industry Alignment
Washington Military Alliance - Defense Industry Diversification Strategy
CURRENT & RECENT PROJECTS
#2
NATIONAL TRENDS
2
Net Job Gains/Losses by Metropolitan Statistical
Area
The Geography of Jobs
Recessions Compared
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (total nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted); NBER (recession dates); New York Times (format)
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81
Number of months until all jobs "regained"
RECESSIONARY EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
Peak employment = 100
1980 1974-1976
1981-1983
1990-1993 2001-2005 2007-2014
(May 2014 = 100.1)
78 months
THE GEOGRAPHY OF RECOVERY
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics; TIP Strategies
Cumulative Change in Employment Since the Beginning of the Great Recession
A JOBLESS RECOVERY?
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
COMPARISON OF REAL GDP TO EMPLOYMENT
2008 to 2015, cumulative change since 2008
THE HOLLOWING OUT OF THE MIDDLE
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (total nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted); NBER (recession dates); New York Times (format)
OCCUPATIONAL GROWTH BY WAGE LEVEL
2007 to 2015, indexed to 2007
OUTPUT VS. EMPLOYMENT
Source: Brookings’ analysis of Moody’s Analytics estimates
GEOGRAPHY OF MANUFACTURING
Sources: BLS via Moody’s (Washington Post format)
EVIDENCE OF TALENT SHORTAGE
Source: Manpower 2016 Talent Shortage Survey.
46.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
20
0
6
20
0
7
20
0
8
20
0
9
20
1
0
20
1
1
20
1
2
20
1
3
20
1
4
20
1
5
20
1
6
US Global
PERCENT EMPLOYERS REPORTING DIFFICULTY FILLING JOBS
2006 to 2016
TOP 10 JOBS
EMPLOYERS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY FILLING
Source: ManpowerGroup's 2016 Talent Shortage Survey
GLOBAL
1. Skilled Trades
2. IT Personnel
3. Sales Representatives
4. Engineers
5. Technicians
6. Drivers
7. Accounting & Finance Staff
8. Management/Executive
(Management/Corporate)
9. Production Operators/Machine
Operators
10. Secretaries, PAs, Receptionists,
Administrative Assistants, & Office
Support Staff
UNITED STATES
1. Skilled Trades
2. Drivers
3. Sales Representatives
4. Teachers
5. Restaurant & Hotel Staff
6. Accounting & Finance Staff
7. Nurses
8. Laborers
9. Engineers
10. Technicians
Talent Gap?
DEMOGRAPHICS
AUTOMATION
POLICIES
TRAINING
WAGES SCREENING
IMAGE
EDUCATION
CULTURE
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
Sources: TIP Strategies, U.S. Census Bureau (NP2014_D1)
“Working-age” defined as 18-66 (average planned retirement age based on April 2014 Gallup poll.
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
20
1
5
20
2
0
20
2
5
20
3
0
20
3
5
20
4
0
20
4
5
20
5
0
COUNTER FORCES
•Advancement of
retirement age
•Relaxed immigration
restrictions
•Technology reduces
employment needs
•Out-sourcing of labor
to cheaper markets
2027
PROJECTED NET ANNUAL CHANGE IN THE US WORKING-AGE POPULATION
John A. Rogers, University of Illinois, F. Seitz Materials Research Laboratory
Google
MANUFACTURING HEALTH CARE
ENTERTAINMENT TRANSPORTATION
DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY
47%
of US employment is
at-risk of automation
over next 20 years.
AUTOMATION
Source: “The Future of Employment,” Dr Michael Osborne and Dr Carl Frey, University of Oxford.
1.Technical
feasibility
2.Development &
deployment
cost
3.Cost/availability
of labor
4.Benefits beyond
labor substitution
Predictors of
Automation
Source: McKinsey & Company.
KEY WORKFORCE
CHALLENGES
3
CHALLENGE #1: HIRING DIFFICULTY
From 2010 to 2015, the regional
economy added almost 20,000 jobs
but only 11,000 workers. Combined
with low unemployment and high
underemployment, the hiring
environment is already difficult.
169
180
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
20
1
0
20
1
1
20
1
2
20
1
3
20
1
4
20
1
5
Th
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
147
167
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
20
1
0
20
1
1
20
1
2
20
1
3
20
1
4
20
1
5
Th
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
GROWTH TRENDS: JOBS VS LABOR FORCE
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
2010 TO 2015
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
2005 TO 2015
+20K
Sources: EMSI, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
+11K
UNEMPLOYMENT
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via Moody’s.
COMPARATIVE UNEMPLOYMENT, AVERAGE ANNUAL RATES
2005 TO 2015
3.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
19
9
0
19
9
2
19
9
4
19
9
6
19
9
8
20
0
0
20
0
2
20
0
4
20
0
6
20
0
8
20
1
0
20
1
2
20
1
4
AN
N
U
A
L
A
V
E
R
A
G
E
R
A
T
E
MSA Colorado United States
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE
66.5
67.6 67.4
62.9
60
65
70
MSA Laborshed Colorado United States
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via Moody’s.
COMPARATIVE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES
2014 Civilian Labor Force, % of Total
RECRUITMENT CHALLENGES
•Difficulty attracting:
•Talent from Denver and from coasts
•C-Level executives
•Young professionals
•Reliable workers to fill jobs with high physical
requirements – warehouse, waste collection,
construction laborers
•Workers that can pass the drug test – most
often fail due to marijuana use
•Low-wage services – food services,
housekeeping
RETENTION CHALLENGES
•Underemployment means that overqualified
workers are always looking for a better job
•Generational expectations
•Young professional gap
EVIDENCE OF UNDEREMPLOYMENT
Sources: EMSI, ACS 1-yr estimates
EDUCATIONAL REQUIREMENTS OF JOBS VS ATTAINMENT OF LABOR FORCE
Fort Collins – Loveland MSA United States
26%
44%
10%
20%
3%
18%
33%
45%
0%25%50%75%100%
Less than High
School
High School or
Equivalent
Some College
Bachelor or Higher
Labor Force Jobs
28%
40%
12%
21%
9%
25%
31%
36%
0%25%50%75%100%
Less than High
School
High School or
Equivalent
Some College
Bachelor or Higher
Labor Force Jobs
PIPELINE CHALLENGES
•Awareness of resources
•Employer engagement & input
•Finding instructors – nursing, computer science
•Student choices
•Awareness of non 4-year opportunities
•Choice of majors at CSU and UNC
MOST POPULAR MAJORS
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Liberal Arts and Sciences/Liberal Studies (24.0101)
Business/Commerce (52.0101)
Nursing Assistant (51.3902)
Kinesiology and Exercise Science (31.0505)
Emergency Medical Technician (51.0904)
Psychology (42.0101)
Business Administration & Management (52.0201)
Automotive Mechanics (47.0604)
Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse (51.3801)
Speech Communication and Rhetoric (9.0101)
Human Development and Family Studies (19.0701)
Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other (30.9999)
Computer and Information Sciences (11.0101)
English Language and Literature (23.0101)
Welding Technology/Welder (48.0508)
Biology/Biological Sciences (26.0101)
Sociology (45.1101)
History (54.0101)
Fine/Studio Arts (50.0702)
Liberal Arts and Humanities (24.0199)
Economics (45.0601)
Educational Administration (13.0499)
Journalism (9.0401)
Music (50.0901)
Political Science and Government (45.1001)
Associates or less Bachelors Graduate Degree
Sources: National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Survey.
TOP 25 LARGEST FIELDS OF STUDY,
3-YEAR AVERAGE
STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES
•Housing affordability at all income levels
•Purchase & rental
•Quality childcare for affordable prices
•Transportation/mobility: traffic makes Denver
farther away
CHALLENGE #2: CONTINUED TIGHTENING
Over next 5 years, employers will have
at least 28,000 openings to fill. The labor
force adds only about 2,000 to 3,000
workers each year. A continuation of
this trend would leave an estimated
shortfall of about 5,000 workers.
PROJECTED DEMAND
5,021
3,056 2,568
9,010
4,655
3,502
Low Middle High
New Replacement
EMPLOYMENT BY SKILL LEVEL, FORT COLLINS-LOVELAND MSA
2016 TO 2020
+28,000 OPENINGS
(7,000 each year)
Sources: EMSI.
1,101
2,076 2,112
3,016
2,380
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
20
1
1
20
1
2
20
1
3
20
1
4
20
1
5
CHANGE IN LABOR FORCE
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via Moody’s.
CHANGE IN LABOR FORCE, FORT COLLINS-LOVELAND MSA
Year-over-year change, #
POPULATION GROWTH
Sources: Colorado State Demography Office.
POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF RESIDENTS 16+, BY AGE
YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE, 2015-2020
2.8
3.3
3.0 2.9 3.0
2.2 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
20
1
6
20
1
7
20
1
8
20
1
9
20
2
0
Th
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
Working Age (16 - 64)Senior (65+)
CHALLENGE #3: AGING WORKFORCE
In many key occupations, more than
25% of the workers are 55 or older.
With the wave of likely retirements,
employers will need to start
succession planning now in order to
prepare for the loss of those key
individuals.
AGING WORKFORCE
AGE DISTRIBUTION OF REGIONAL WORKERS
FORT COLLINS-LOVELAND MSA
Sources: EMSI.
TOP MIDDLE SKILL JOBS
MIDDLE-SKILL (More than high school, less than four years)
49-9071 Maintenance & Repair Workers, General 27%7%
29-1141 Registered Nurses 27%5%
53-3032 Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 28%7%
51-9111 Packaging & Filling Machine Workers 15%2%
49-9041 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 24%3%
43-3031 Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 32%9%
29-2061 Licensed Practical/ Vocational Nurses 26%5%
51-4041 Machinists 27%5%
41-9022 Real Estate Sales Agents 39%13%
49-1011 First-Line Supvsr., Mechanics, Install, & Repair 27%4%
11-9141 Property, Real Estate, & Community Assoc. Mgrs.40%14%
43-6013 Medical Secretaries 29%6%
47-4011 Construction & Building Inspectors 38%11%
51-8031 W ater/ W W Treatment Plant Operators 30%6%
13-2021 Appraisers & Assessors of Real Estate 32%9%
SOC
CODE DESCRIPTION
DEM OGRAPHICS
%
5
5
+
Y
e
a
r
s
%
6
5
+
Y
e
a
r
s
Sources: EMSI.
TOP HIGH SKILL JOBS
HIGH SKILL (Four-year degree or above)
25-1099 Postsecondary Teachers 30%11%
11-1021 General and Operations Managers 23%4%
13-2011 Accountants and Auditors 25%6%
25-2021 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 28%5%
25-2031 Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/ Tec 28%5%
13-1111 Management Analysts 38%12%
25-2022 Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/ Techni 28%5%
25-3099 Teachers and Instructors, All Other 25%8%
21-1014 Mental Health Counselors 25%6%
21-2021 Directors, Religious Activities and Education 39%13%
29-1069 Physicians and Surgeons, All Other 31%9%
21-2099 Religious W orkers, All Other 45%20%
SOC
CODE DESCRIPTION
DEM OGRAPHICS
%
5
5
+
Y
e
a
r
s
%
6
5
+
Y
e
a
r
s
Sources: EMSI.
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
•The current labor market is already strained
•Demand outstrips supply
•Mismatch in education & skills
•Difficult to recruit and retain from outside of the
region
•Structural issues (transportation, childcare & housing)
exacerbate recruitment challenges
•The situation is likely to worsen
•Projected demand still more than supply
•Aging workforce will create more openings
TALENT 2.0
3
THE RESPONSE: TALENT 2.0
•Sets out a common set of goals and strategies
•Align efforts and resources
•Amplify reach and impact
FRAMEWORK
Access
Actively support
employers in
finding,
attracting, and
retaining the
talent that they
need
Alignment
Align education
and workforce
resources more
closely with
business
community and
the local talent
pool
Barriers
Collectively
address structural
issues that serve
as barriers to a
secure talent
pipeline
YOUR PLACE: NORTHERN COLORADO
•TALENT PORTAL. Create a talent portal that provides information about working, living, and relocating to the region.
•AMBASSADORS. Assemble a multi-generational and diverse group of “ambassadors” that are willing to help sell the community by participating in recruitment events such as panel discussions or networking events.
•TRAILING SPOUSES. Partner with existing business networks (chambers of commerce, business associations, and industry associations) to create a program by which spouses and partners of recruits can be connected to potential employers or job opportunities.
•RECRUITMENT SERVICES. Develop a recruitment services program to support employers.
•TALENT ROADSHOWS. Organize talent roadshows to create opportunities for local employers to jointly market to prospective talent pools.
THE UNDEREMPLOYMENT PROJECT
•OUTREACH. Reach out to underemployed individuals through
employers and directly
•INVENTORY. Catalog resumes and skills of underemployed
•COACH. Provide coaching to these individuals to find better jobs
•RETRAIN. Connect them to retraining as needed to align skills to
opportunities
•RE-EMPLOY. Assist them in finding better opportunities
PLAN FOR SUCCESS(ION)
•ASSESS. Invest in tools that can help companies assess their needs
and craft a transition strategy
•EDUCATE. Hold workshops on topics relevant to succession
planning
•KNOWLEDGE-SHARE. Create peer working groups that meet
quarterly to provide a forum for peers to share information and
best practices as well as to work through issues together
•TRAINING. Create program to train workers to move up
•EXPERTISE. Train or hire an expert that can provide technical
assistance one-on-one to companies
SECTOR PARTNERSHIPS
(SUPPORT FOR ESTABLISHED INITIATIVE)
•SURVEY. Partner with existing sector
organizations to conduct annual employer
surveys to document needs in critical
occupations
•ADVISE. Coordinate with sector partnerships to
create a more centralized business advisory
function.
•LAUNCH. Monitor the needs of other industries,
and facilitate the launch of new partnerships as
needed.
FRONT RANGE CAREER ACADEMY
(EXPANSION OF CURRENT INITIATIVE)
•EXPAND. Enhance FRCC’s current high school programs
•Small learning environment, experiential learning, dual
enrollment
•COLLABORATION. Foster collaboration between school districts,
community college, and key employers
•ALIGNMENT. Enhances industry-education alignment and is an
asset for talent & business attraction
ADVOCACY
•Continue to advocate for I-25 Corridor improvements
•Advocate on behalf of FRCC to secure funding for the Allied
Health School
•Incorporate affordable housing as an issue on the local advocacy
agenda
IMPLEMENTATION STRUCTURE
Steering
Committee
Education &
Training
Partners
Public
Sector
Partners
Industry
Partnerships
&
Associations
Philanthropy
STEERING COMMITTEE ROLES
•Maintain strategic coherence
•Manage fundraising and outreach efforts
•Provide additional project management and
support
MEASURING PROGRESS & IMPACT
•Growth parity: comparison of employment
growth and labor force growth
•Labor force participation
•Unemployment rate
•Underemployment: educational requirements
of jobs and educational attainment of workers
•Workforce efficiency: the percent of employed
residents who live and work in the region
•Wages: cost-of-living adjusted wages
•Income equity: the ratio of the earnings of the
90th percentile to the 10th percentile
QUESTIONS
?
THANK YOU
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512.343.9113
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Image Credit :Austin_Texas by Ed Schipul via Flickr (CC BY-SA 20)