HomeMy WebLinkAboutEconomic Advisory Commission - Minutes - 03/16/2016MINUTES
CITY OF FORT COLLINS
ECONOMIC ADVISORY COMMISSION
Date: Wednesday, March 16, 2016
Location: CIC Room, City Hall, 300 Laporte Ave.
Time: 11:00am–1:30pm
For Reference
Wade Troxell, Mayor & Council Liaison
Josh Birks, Staff Liaison 221-6324
Dianne Tjalkens, Minutes 221-6734
Commission Members Present Commission Members Absent
Sam Solt, Chair Kristin Owens
Denny Otsuga Ted Settle
Glen Colton
Linda Stanley
Alan Curtis
Ann Hutchison
Staff Present Staff Absent
Josh Birks, Economic Health Director
Dianne Tjalkens, Admin/Board Support
Janet Freeman, Administrative Assistant
Sue Beck-Ferkiss, Social Sustainability Specialist
Beth Sowder, Director of Social Sustainability
Lucinda Smith, Director of Environmental Services
Guests
Elizabeth Garner, State Demographer
Dale Adamy, citizen
Ken Waido, citizen
Curt Lyons, Affordable Housing Board
Meeting called to order at 11:13am
Review and Approval of Minutes:
No changes. February minutes approved as written.
Agenda Review—Add approval of Annual Report to Staff Updates.
Public Comment—Curt Lyons, AHB member and new liaison to this board introduced himself.
Commission Member/Staff Updates—
1. Denny said Monday and Tuesday were rocky venture club event in Denver—angel capital fund
summit—representative from Fort Collins competed in university competition and won first place
for app that turns off specific subject matter in your social media.
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2. 2015 Annual Report—Josh described changes made at commission’s request, including the
summary of public comment. Will be submitted and posted online at
http://www.fcgov.com/cityclerk/economic-advisory.php
3. Repository of commission files/supporting documents on growth conversations will be located at
http://www.fcgov.com/cityclerk/economic-advisory-supporting-documentation.php. Audio
recordings to be made available as well.
AGENDA ITEM 1— Future Growth Projections – Northern Colorado – State Demographer
Elizabeth Garner, state demographer is located in Department of Local Affairs, but is part of the state
agency.
IMAGE: Income, Migration, Aging, Growth, Ethnicity/race—how are these changing in the state?
How do Larimer and Fort Collins fit into US?
Population Growth: US has 0.8% population increase annually. Colorado is 1.9%—second fastest
growth behind North Dakota. Expect downward pressure from changes in oil and gas industry. In
absolute growth seventh fastest. 101K total increase 2014-2015. Disparity across counties in the state—
growth in north, with decreases southeast. 2013-2014: Larimer rated sixth in growth percent, total, and
size (total population). Larimer grew more than Weld in this time period.
Migration vs. Natural Increase: Colorado growth: natural increase (birth and death), and net migration.
From 1980 forward, about 55% of growth from net migration. Natural increase around 2000 annually,
consistently. Net migration follows business cycles. Watch business cycle, watch jobs to understand what
will impact total growth. Know primary industries/concentrations to understand resilience. Migration
linked to economic growth. During recession still had net in-migration despite lack of job opportunities.
“Fun employment”—when unemployed would rather live somewhere fun and cool.
Trends by Age Group: Colorado as a whole attracts young adults. Every county is different. Larimer has
highest growth in college age and up to 27. Net-in peak is 3K, with net-out 2K, so keeping many who
move here. Also have positive in-migration with age 40 and above. Larimer accounts for large share of
positive in-migration to the state. Similar to Boulder, except they have constant out-migration over 30
years of age. Have state-to-state migration tables, but working on database to see county-to-county
migration. Other places in county growing quickly as well. Ex: Timnath has higher percentage change.
Greater concentration in 18-24 year old college students in Fort Collins. Lower share of 55+ compared to
county and state. 35-64 years is where Larimer and Fort Collins have a dearth. Workforce issues: lower
share of Gen-X which makes more difficult to find people for job openings. Growing every age group
over 2000-2010, except 25-34, and 55+ —have low share but growing quickly.
Have growth in households and family households, but less growth in families with children. Growth in
nonfamily households and living alone (impacts to density and housing availability), and growth of those
living alone over age 65.
Economic Drivers: Government is large industry so state and federal changes can impact economy.
Regional services are a large percent as well—hub for health care, finance, construction, etc.—this is safe
and stable economic driver. Households with unearned income spend money here. Retirees are a fairly
large sector. Agriculture is not huge, but significant, and manufacturing still important in Larimer county.
Total estimated jobs by industry sector—comparing Fort Collins to Larimer and state. Have greater share
of retail, accommodation and food service, and government. These tend to be lower wage industries.
Commuting: In Fort Collins more jobs than labor force, so need people in-commuting to fill jobs, but
many who live in Fort Collins work outside the city. Understanding job base versus labor force base is
very important. Goal: match jobs, labor force, and available housing.
Forecast: At 5.4M people in state. Forecast 8.6M by 2050 with majority on Front Range. Between 2020
and 2040, expect 2.4M new in Front Range (84% of total growth), 1.5M in Denver metro. Disparate
growth. Pueblo and El Paso are underperforming. May be worthwhile to have the state encourage growth
in underperforming areas—think about how to allocate the population. Expect Weld population to exceed
Larimer by 2025. County forecast based on economic forecast and population models—job-driven.
County provides feedback annually on the forecasts. Ex: If grow manufacturing slower than rest of US,
then Larimer will underperform. Consider impacts—growth is challenging, but need to be realistic.
Median Home Values: Home value is increasing, which will constrict growth. More expensive than
competitors. Highest median home values are along mountain corridor, and in Boulder, Douglas and
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Elbert, etc. Biggest competitors are Texas and Utah, where home values are lower. Can use this
information to market concept of allocating growth differently. However, can’t completely control
market.
Age Distribution/Generational: Largest share of population is millennials, have few Gen-Xers. Lack of
35-50—important labor force group. Makes assumption that will be able to continue to attract Gen-X.
Boomers will be retiring. Not a lot of Xers to take their places. Will continue to see growth at young end,
under 30. 45-60 year olds are highest paid, highest spending, and pay more property taxes. Now have
growth at high and low ends. The only group not growing quickly is the one you want to grow.
Public Finance: Impact of aging on public finance.
Ethnicity: Becoming more diverse, especially at young end. Larimer less diverse than state as a whole.
Growth in labor force primarily from Hispanics. Hispanic population tends to be less educated and lower
income.
Wages: Downward pressure on income in the state. Median household income in Larimer is decreasing.
Share of state wage has declined over time—90% of state average. Distribution of jobs over time.
Thinking of using Larimer County as an example for what could happen to the state.
Discussion/Q & A:
• Growth rates: 70/growth rate tells you when something will double. If continue at this rate,
population would double in 35 years.
• Natural growth—how long does someone have to live in Fort Collins to count toward this?
o Time not included. Geocoded to county of residence. Natural growth is birth minus death.
• Young or old county?
o Young city and relatively young county—though close to average, compared to state.
• People don’t make choices only based on money. Maximizing utility and wellbeing. Colorado has
positives—people move here based on many variables. Leads to underemployment.
o Have ability to easily attract people. Sometimes want to attract best and brightest, but
then attract everyone. How do you manage that?
• How does retiree base compare to other parts of Colorado?
o One of largest on Front Range, but have some counties over 20%.
• New job creation projection—because of large government jobs in Colorado, is that where
decline is coming from, or other industries?
o Projects look at productivity and labor force in entire United States. Look at industries in
Colorado and that share of jobs in United States. Forecasting slowing in job growth for
US as a whole. Important to note when correlate job growth and in-migration. Changing
labor force—over a million people aging out of labor force, will have replacement.
• Silicon Valley, etc., have new jobs being created, but expensive—have migration of young higher
paid people moving in. If we work to create more jobs, which drives growth, which drives up
housing prices, we need to think about strategies to drive growth. Wonder at state strategies to
attract companies.
o Can’t speak to specific incentives, but in general. A lot of communities didn’t realize
soon enough that a job is a person, who often brings a spouse and children. Need schools
and other services. Need to balance job growth with space for housing. Making choices
with full set of information is important to understand implications. Colorado is one of
lowest incentive states in US. Have to have incentives on table to even be considered.
Can be selective and make choices about types of firms to attract. If bring in high paying
employer, creates many low paying jobs as well—services. Do you have the employment
base here? What are spin off jobs? What housing stock is needed?
• What drives Weld County to larger population?
o Closer to Denver metro, large county, more developable land, access to water, pro-
growth, and have transportation corridors. Growth also influenced by historical
performance. About 7 years where Larimer was not growing as fast. Recently growing
faster. If oil and gas industry declines, will see growth decrease.
o Population growth closer to 3.5% over last couple of years. Slower growth through 2010.
Coming out of dip. Agree that 2000-2010 was flat coming out of tech bust. Was greater
recession for Larimer than Great Recession.
o Lifestyle choices impact this.
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o Local forecast suggests 2.5% job growth for 2016.
3.7% was growth in last year for Fort Collins and 2.4% for county as a whole.
• Concern about growth, see link to job creation. What is alternative? Not growing? Negative
growth? What is impact of no growth or negative growth to infrastructure, economy and
livelihood? Lived in South Dakota where concern is on negative growth.
o Important to remain vibrant by bringing people in and out, consistently. Growth is not
only way to improve. Huge challenge in that—how to remain vibrant, attract and retain,
and not grow? Have seen communities that made choices to constrain and had unintended
consequences. Don’t know of a place that is phenomenal and has maintained 1% growth
rate. Two communities that did constraining growth: Boulder (remains vibrant, but with
many challenges), and Pitkin County (remained vibrant, challenges are fewer). Can be
selective.
o Suggestions?
Look for best fit for the workforce. You have highly educated workforce.
Challenges in technical areas. Creating more jobs in those some-highschool+
jobs would bring more migration to the area. Find out where highest
unemployment is and create job opportunities in that area. Be selective and
diversify. Have a lot of low wage jobs.
Difficult to have vibrancy with little growth. Hard to engineer. Dynamism is
important—communities that hang on to dominant industry end up negatively
impacted. Let older things go. Change/turnover of industry.
Healthy ecosystem has changes no growth. Dynamics of market—not static.
Don’t have that much say over job growth—affected by global economy/business
cycles. Limited choices, but have choices about incentives for low wage
employers.
• Europe is no-growth in terms of population, but have high quality of life and saving countryside.
Vermont not growing much. Have rejected big box stores and high growth. Don’t try to attract
growth here. Allow it to happen in smaller towns in other states that would benefit. Our policy in
Colorado should be no incentives. Do analyses look at consider carrying capacity. Need more
dams and conservation to provide water.
• Median income—is the issue income distribution? We have some very high paying jobs. Or is it
because of growth in low paying jobs?
o Fewer households at the highest end and more at lowest end—takes into account students
who are not in dorms. Look at industries and how they have changed over time. Have lost
some key manufacturing that paid higher. Have tech firms and innovative companies
here.
o All relative. Our decline compared to other communities?
No, it is real decline. But how you perform compared to others.
• Mentioned Pitkin County. Any other places we should look at that have done innovative things?
o Will provide offline.
AGENDA ITEM 2— Introduction/Overview of Environmental Services and Social Sustainability
— Lucinda Smith & Beth Sowder
Social Sustainability finalized strategic plan. Overall theme of access and opportunity for all with four
focus areas.
• Community Wellness—supportive role in physical and behavioral health—focus on access.
• Equity and Inclusion—overlay with business community in difficulty in attracting and retaining
diverse workforce.
• Community Prosperity—working with EHO on workforce development as future initiative.
Developing BFO offer. Collaborating on Innovation Cluster funding
• Housing—vision is for all to have access to housing that is affordable to them and meets their needs.
More income leads to more options. Affordable housing is necessary to support entry level workers.
Also look at workforce housing up to 120% AMI. Continue to have more demand than supply.
Conversations with large employers about workforce housing. Challenge is lack of inventory, prices
of rents.
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Sustainability Assessment Tool—focus on TBL. In SSD have implemented low income assistance
programs, and developed a discounts page on website that helps people find assistance programs within
City. Ex: Recreation discount program. Partnering with Utilities on low income solar, ClimateWise social
badge, income qualified electric rate, etc.
Discussion/Q & A:
• Sustainability Assessment Tool?
o Presented summary of pilot year and have been asked to revise to make easier to use.
Have convened teams to look at sections of the assessment. Simplifying.
o Staff teams formed to use the tool. Could look at expanding the review groups to include
board members.
o The committee may look at adapting tool to be better in different circumstances. Analysis
can be very technical.
Glad it continues to evolve. We’re much further along in analyzing economics.
CSU didn’t seem to do analysis on impacts on Fort Collins and employee
housing when decided how many more students to add. Same with Woodward
Governor—gentrifying neighborhood—should have shown up in TBL analysis.
Should be able to provide Council with scope of impacts.
o Looking at impact assessment for metrics. Articulating goals.
ACTION ITEMS: Will ask Lucinda to return to EAC to discuss SAT.
Lucinda Smith—ESD—
Environmental Services strategic plan focuses on:
• Climate (CAP, climate adaptation, GHG reduction)
• Air Quality (education, outreach, policy)
• Waste Reduction (recycling, source reduction, etc.)
• Lead by Example—coordinating sustainable practices of municipality.
Ex: Air quality impacts of Woodward, environmental impacts of mall redevelopment. Moving forward
can do more to hear business perspective on projects and initiatives. Have been working with DDA for
two years to get recycling container for hard-to-serve section of downtown. Have overlap on CAP,
including outreach to business community and financing (public-private partnerships). Local food
crosses all three departments. Working on green building with EHO and ESD. Pilot project called HEAL,
which pilots energy efficiency financing though employer. Looking at materials reuse that can have TBL
impacts. Also working on SAT with all three departments. Developing strategic metrics (impacts and
desired outcomes) that reflect TBL for service area. EHO is leading this process.
Priorities for 2016: Community recycling ordinance and fugitive dust. City is adopting fugitive dust
policy for its own projects, so leading by example. Regional waste is important issue—landfill has limited
lifespan and some waste streams are of growing economic interest. Working with Utilities and waste
water treatment to determine whole pathway for food waste in community.
Top Challenges: Cost side of CAP, how to work with key stakeholders, and developing messaging and
financing for CAP strategies. ESD is building bridges with other departments, getting more involved in
regulation, in response to Council and/or community concerns. Building partnerships to listen to
community.
Discussion/Q & A:
• Suggest creating a matrix to show intersections of the three departments for each project.
o Strategic Plan is not project-focused, but that is a great idea. For each goal we have
identified roles of others. Need to continue implementation.
o Service area has been together long enough to understand points of intersection and
where we can continue to work together. Brought on Katie Ricketts who is building
framework for overarching TBL goals—will see impact areas for three departments.
Finding impact areas that are not siloed in a specific department. Continuing to develop.
• RZW and CAP—set audacious goals. Actually taking action is really slow or doesn’t happen. Ex:
multifamily recycling. What are biggest barriers?
o Good news is had Work Session on road map for 2020 last week. Council expressed
interest in funding four strategies right away. Some are for staff support and some are
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direct projects. Unprecedented interest in funding. For recycling, there is now a cost to
take to landfill which has changed dynamic. Continuing conversations with stakeholders
and will bring new package to Council. Bundling recycling and trash for multifamily is
an equity issue. Many multifamily are recycling anyway, however.
• If a big box store sells a TV, then at the end of its life the community is stuck with the product.
This is irresponsible.
o Europe has made progress on extended producer responsibility. Progress here with
paint—recycling will be available at community recycling center.
o Council conversation, TBL being integrated, seeing that City is concerned about impacts
on affordable housing, small businesses, etc.
• In 1980s HP had independently operating divisions. Worked well for organization but not well
for customer. Developed rows and columns to get cross-talk among departments. Brought rational
thinking. Could be applications to boards and commissions as well. Sustainability is the essence.
o Service area is planning to create a document that integrates the three strategic plans.
• Work with other communities to put together strategic plans? How often do departments work
with other communities to help solve their problems?
o Not many municipalities doing social sustainability work. Get people reaching out for
expertise. Hosting a tour in April for foundation/grants group.
o Also research best practices of other places.
o ESD staff is connected regionally, statewide, and nationally.
• Best presentation to this group was on affordable housing. Essential and complicated. When think
of Woodward Governor from economic point of view, need to see other impacts of decisions.
o Starting regional conversations on housing affordability. Not just within our city borders.
Can work together with neighboring communities on this challenge.
• FortZED has fallen through the cracks.
o Exists and steering committee still meets—triple helix approach. Has been challenged to
find projects to implement. Main project is Lose-A-Watt campaign. Initiative to increase
efficiency and innovation. In 10th place currently. Prize is $5M. Utility is doing outreach.
Process underway to look at future of FortZED.
• What happened to visibility of Smithsonian exhibit? Should be tooting our horn more.
o Great opportunity. When first came out were attempts to get press interest around it. Josh
saw exhibit. Could promote more. Can talk to CPIO.
o Denny has presented on the exhibit at national level conferences. Smithsonian is
internationally known. Needs more internet presence.
o Interesting things going on in Fort Collins. Has done a lot for environmental
sustainability. Who are competitors in Lose-A-Watt?
Seattle, Portland, Austin, New York City, Vancouver, Palo Alto, cities along the
coast. Carbon intensity of energy supply.
From economic perspective, have competitors in bits and pieces, but few peers
bringing all three legs together in an intentional way. Can take a long time to get
movement. Heading in right direction and starting to see outcomes.
ACTION ITEMS: Jackie Kozak-Thiel will attend April meeting.
Lucinda will send memo on Lose-A-Watt to EAC.
Meeting Adjourned: 1:30pm
Next Meeting: April 20
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