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HomeMy WebLinkAbout06/05/2015 - Planning And Zoning Board - Agenda - Work SessionPlanning & Zoning Board Work Session Agenda Friday, June 5, 2015 281 N. College Ave – Conference Room A 12:00 – 5:00 pm Policy and Legislation: • Water Efficiency Plan (Davis) • CSU Annexation Map (Kadrich) 1:15 pm: Introduction of Ray Martinez to the Board (Carpenter) Board Topics: • Old Town Neighborhood Plan Update (Wray) • Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Rural Assessment (Holland) • Downtown Plan Update (Gloss) 1 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Assessment of Alternative Rural Scenario May 2015 DRAFT 2 This page intentionally blank 3 i Executive Summary Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Assessment of Alternative Rural Scenario May 2015 DRAFT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Plan Fort Collins, and the corresponding Mountain Vista Subarea Plan, identified that the City’s northeast quadrant would provide long-term community growth opportunities due to a limited supply of buildable vacant land available throughout the balance of the Fort Collins’ Growth Management Area (GMA). In response to potential concerns regarding the cost to provide the full range of urban services to the Mountain Vista area, the City of Fort Collins has evaluated a hypothetical rural development scenario (Rural Scenario) that considers the environmental, economic and social outcomes to develop at a lower intensity. Particular focus has been provided on effects to transportation infrastructure. The Rural Scenario demonstrates potential outcomes with limited development. The Rural Scenario contained in this assessment will affect approximately 70% of the Mountain Vista Subarea and is an illustration of one of many rural alternative permutations that could occur. Overview of Potential Outcomes of the Rural Scenario Land Use • Land available for housing and employment would decrease. Residential and employment growth would most likely be shifted to surrounding communities and unincorporated areas, and within the few remaining “greenfield” sites in Fort Collins. • The decrease in land area for housing would affect housing diversity, availability and affordability Citywide. • Availability of land for potential oil and gas development in the Subarea would increase. • The Rural Scenario provides more flexibility for large-scale food production. Transportation • Volumes on area roadways increase regardless of the scenario. Although the Rural Scenario will ‘generate’ significantly fewer trips than the adopted plan, many of the planned infrastructure improvements will be needed to some degree. Services and Infrastructure • Stormwater infrastructure in the area would still be necessary and is independent of development in the Mountain Vista Subarea since it is part of a regional system. • The 110-acre community park planned for the Subarea would not be needed with the Rural Scenario. • Utility service providers that have extended services into the Mountain Vista Subarea will see a reduction in planned expansion. 4 Executive Summary ii Carbon & Habitat • CO2e emissions (all greenhouse gas) at 2040 would increase regionally while decreasing within the GMA, resulting in a net increase regionally of 79 mt CO2e by 2040. • Reduced land development preserves habitat, wildlife corridors, possible recreational opportunities, plant and animal population numbers and biodiversity, and natural/scenic vistas. Revenue & Jobs • City fees collected will decrease significantly with a Rural Scenario, and fewer fees would be needed to serve the Mountain Vista area. Because fees such as Street Oversizing can be applied to improvements needed City-wide, a reduction in fees could affect available funding in other areas of the City. • The reduction in households and retail expenditures will result in significant reductions in projected City sales tax and property tax revenues. • With the current Mountain Vista Subarea containing a significant portion of the City’s Employment and Industrial zoning, the Rural Scenario will significantly reduce the land capacity available for new employment in the community and future City-wide revenue loss would be significant. Rural Scenario Sustainability Performance Environmental Economic Social Decrease in Mountain Vista Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) but substantial increase in regional VMT due to housing units located further from jobs and services. Decreased housing affordability as fewer acres within Fort Collins are available for development and less opportunity for a range of more affordable housing types. Decrease in potential Mountain Vista population. Regional increase in CO2e emissions at 2040 of 94 metric tons (mt) and Mountain Vista decrease of 15 mt. Significant loss of jobs within industrial/employment lands surrounding ABI and within Community Commercial district. Land supply for affordable housing options originally anticipated in Mountain Vista likely shifted to surrounding communities and unincorporated areas. Increased regional air pollution associated with increase in vehicle transportation. Many of the planned transportation and stormwater improvements are regional and still needed to address existing deficiencies. Social impacts of higher housing prices within the City, including increased pressure to gentrify existing neighborhoods. Increase in large scale agricultural production opportunities. Decreased one-time fees due to development (sales/use taxes; capital expansion fees for street oversizing, parks, fire, general govt. and police services; utility investment fees; and 1 BACKGROUND The Mountain Vista subarea is located in the northeast quadrant of Fort Collins, bordered by Richards Lake Road to the north, Interstate 25 to the east, Vine Drive to the south, and Turnberry Road and Lemay Avenue to the west. Historically agricultural in use, a large portion of the subarea remains undeveloped, with the exception of four residential neighborhoods and the Anheuser- Busch InBev (ABI) brewery. The Mountain Vista Subarea Plan was originally adopted with the intent that the northeast quadrant of the City would provide the long-term growth area of the community due to a limited supply of buildable vacant land available throughout the Fort Collins’ Growth Management Area (GMA). Most of the land within the subarea was annexed in the 1980s, but a few parcels remain outside of the City limits. These parcels are expected to annex at the time of development or as part of an enclave annexation. The Mountain Vista Subarea Plan, originally adopted in March 1999 and subsequently updated in September 2009, lays a community development framework for a large, primarily undeveloped area of northeast Fort Collins. The 2009 update was responsive to the ideas and concerns of the many stakeholders involved, including area property owners, residents, the City of Fort Collins, and the broader community. In response to potential concerns regarding the cost to provide the full range of urban services to the Mountain Vista area, the City of Fort Collins has evaluated a hypothetical rural development scenario (Rural Scenario) that considers the environmental, economic and social outcomes to develop at a lower intensity. Particular focus has been provided on effects to transportation infrastructure. A working group consisting of City personnel from various departments was established and tasked with assessing the environmental, economic and social outcomes between the currently proposed 2040 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan and the Rural Scenario. This white paper was developed with the intent of providing a preliminary evaluation of potential outcomes of a Rural Scenario in the Mountain Vista Subarea. The information and data presented is based on discussions with City personnel and meetings of the working group assembled to develop and evaluate the Rural Scenario. The demographic and transportation models completed for the purpose of this white paper are based on readily available information. Further study may be necessary to provide more detailed data and evaluation of the Rural Scenario. Vicinity Map 6 2 PURPOSE AND GOALS The purpose of this effort is to assess potential outcomes of a Rural Scenario on the Mountain Vista Subarea with regard to transportation, stormwater, parks, infrastructure needs and associated fees, community demographics, and oil and gas development. The Mountain Vista Subarea is planned for Fort Collins’ future growth and calls for development of multiple residential neighborhoods, community parks and trails, a neighborhood commercial center, a K-12 school campus, and additional industrial uses associated with ABI. Using a demographic model based on land uses determined through working group sessions, an assessment of what services might be impacted by limited development, and incorporation of a transportation model, the City can estimate potential outcomes of the Rural Scenario on the Mountain Vista Subarea, the City, and surrounding areas. EXISTING CONDITIONS The Mountain Vista Subarea Plan established baseline demographics for the year 2012, and modeled projected demographics for the subarea for the year 2040 and at build out. These three scenarios serve as the baseline existing conditions for the analysis of the Rural Scenario. Demographics for the 2012 base year, 2040 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan, and build out are presented in the table below. The 2040 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan demographics are used in comparison to the Rural Scenario in order to evaluate what the potential outcomes would be of the Rural Scenario. The 2012 baseline and the 2040 demographic projections serve as reference points for the comparison. Adopted Conditions in the Mountain Vista Subarea Model/Scenario Homes Employees 2012 Base Year 1,405 882 2040 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan 8,856 14,552 Mountain Vista Subarea Build Out 9,539 26,618 7 3 ASSESSMENT OF ALTERNATIVE RURAL SCENARIO The Rural Scenario was developed based on a set of assumptions limiting development options for the Mountain Vista Subarea. Rural Scenario Assumptions • For the purpose of this analysis, properties that do not have a vested development plan are modeled with residential densities based on the Rural Lands District (RUL) zone district which assumes a maximum residential density of one dwelling unit per ten acres. • RUL - The Rural Lands District is intended for privately owned lands that are planned as a rural edge to the community. Rural lands include, but are not limited to, community separators, clustered residential development, large lot residential, agriculture, natural area buffers and corridors and other open lands of similar character and purpose. • All existing houses are incorporated into the 10 acre development pattern with a maximum density of 1 household for every 10 acres. • Plans that are excluded from RUL because they are already approved/vested include: □ Storybook, (including the 3rd filing to the east) □ Maple Hill □ Waterfield, except for the area zoned MMN that is not yet planned. The analysis assumes 200 dwelling units to be developed on the MMN-zoned portion. • Half of the 87.6-acre Poudre School District site remains planned for a school; the other half is modeled at an RUL density and pattern. • For the Anheuser-Busch/InBev properties: □ All land east of the rail line remains Industrial; all other Industrial and Employment lands will be developed at RUL densities. □ West of the rail line, the existing facility at 3515 Richards Lake (parcel 8833005001) remains Industrial zoning and the remaining land currently zoned Industrial is modeled as RUL. • All remaining areas that are undeveloped and currently zoned NC or MMN are also developed as RUL. • The regional and subregion control totals, as defined by the North Front Range Metropolitan Organization (NFRMPO) in the 2040 Economic and Demographic Forecast, will remain the same for the transportation model. • RUL zoning for the Rural Scenario assumes 3 employees per 10 acres in 2040. 8 4 Comparison with 2040 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Demographics With the implementation of the Rural Scenario, demographics in the Mountain Vista Subarea will change from what the Mountain Vista Plan predicted. The number of houses and jobs in the subarea will be reduced in most areas, primarily those areas that are re-zoned to RUL. These changes in demographics will have an effect on transportation patterns in the area, as well as in Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs) outside of the Mountain Vista Subarea. A comparison of the demographics under the 2040 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan and the 2040 Rural Scenario are presented in the table below. The Rural Scenario would result in approximately 6,300 fewer households, and 12,700 fewer employees in the subarea. These demographics are also shown in the maps on the following pages. Rural Scenario Comparison Model/Scenario Households Employees 2040 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan 8,856 14,552 2040 Rural Scenario 2,539 1,898 Difference between Subarea Plan and Rural Scenario 6,317 12,654 9 Maple Hill Subdivision Storybrook Subdivision Waterfield Subdivision Waters Edge Subdivision I-25 Giddings Rd Mountain Vista Dr Timberline Rd Turnberry Rd Richards Lake Rd Busch Dr Vine Dr Lindenmeier Rd Wetland ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC Trailhead Subdivision Waterglen Subdivision ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC KEDERIKE LEMAY LLC GRAHAM JOHN C (.50) KEDERIKE LEMAY LLC WEISS DONALD D (1/2) HOLTER GEORGE A ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC CITY OF FORT COLLINS K AND M CO ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC WATERS EDGE WEST LLC WATERS EDGE WEST LLC POUDRE R-1 Maple Hill Subdivision Storybrook Subdivision Waterfield Subdivision Waters Edge Subdivision I-25 Giddings Rd Mountain Vista Dr Timberline Rd Turnberry Rd Richards Lake Rd Busch Dr Vine Dr Lindenmeier Rd Wetland ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC Trailhead Subdivision Waterglen Subdivision ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC KEDERIKE LEMAY LLC GRAHAM JOHN C (.50) KEDERIKE LEMAY LLC WEISS DONALD D (1/2) HOLTER GEORGE A ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC CITY OF FORT COLLINS K AND M CO ANHEUSER-BUSCH INC WATERS EDGE WEST LLC WATERS EDGE WEST LLC POUDRE R-1 7 This page intentionally blank 12 8 Number of Households by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZs) 2.0 - 5.0 5.1 - 20.0 20.1 - 70.0 70.1 - 300.0 300.1 - 942.0 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Date: 5/20/2015 1 in = 2,200 feet L O G A N S I M P S O N Mountain Vista Subarea Plan: Total Households at 2040 8,856 13 9 Number of Households by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZs) 0.5 - 5.0 5.1 - 20.0 20.1 - 70.0 70.1 - 300.0 300.1 - 694.0 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Date: 5/20/2015 1 in = 2,200 feet L O G A N S I M P S O N Rural Scenario: Total Households at 2040 2,539 14 10 Number of Employees by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZs) 0 - 3 4 - 20 21 - 40 41 - 135 136 - 250 251 - 500 501 - 3500 3501 - 6500 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Date: 5/18/2015 1 in = 2,200 feet L O G A N S I M P S O N 14,552 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan: Total Employees at 2040 15 11 Number of Employees by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZs) 0 - 3 4 - 20 21 - 40 41 - 135 136 - 250 251 - 500 501 - 3500 3501 - 6500 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Date: 5/18/2015 1 in = 2,200 feet L O G A N S I M P S O N *All Jobs in School Rural Scenario: Total Employees at 2040 1,898 16 12 The Rural Scenario will affect approximately 70% of the Mountain Vista Subarea. Areas currently zoned as community commercial, employment, industrial, low and medium density mixed-use neighborhood, and public open lands, will be re-zoned to RUL, with a maximum density of 1 residence and 3 employees per 10 acres. The table below shows the acreage that will be converted to different zoning under the Rural Scenario, as well as developable acreage after taking into account oil and gas buffer and City stormwater areas in which no development can occur. Change in Zoning Acreage - Rural Scenario Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Zoning Rural Scenario Zoning Total Zoned Acres (Rural Scenario) Rural Scenario Acres (with Oil & Gas setbacks) CC RUL 28 5 E I 0 0 E RUL 589 465 I I 216 216 I RUL 226 148 LMN LMN 472 456 LMN RUL 754 686 MMN MMN 29 29 MMN RUL 111 87 POL RUL 106 106 PSD RUL 62 43 PSD PSD 44 44 T T 5 5 E (stormwater) POL (stormwater) 92 92 LMN (stormwater) POL (stormwater) 52 52 Total Acres 2786 2434 The Rural Scenario includes oil & gas buffer. This table shows the total acres of zoning, and also the acres taking into account the 1,000 ft. setbacks. Transportation Model A transportation model was used to model the potential impacts to transportation based on the Rural Scenario. The North Front Range Metropolitan Planning Organization Regional Travel Model (NFR RTM) was used to forecast traffic volumes as part of the Rural Scenario. The model uses a four-step process to forecast travel in the subarea, Fort Collins as a whole, and the North Front Range region. The regional model includes the communities of Fort Collins, Loveland, Greeley, Timnath, and Wellington. The NFR RTM is calibrated further to Fort Collins and the Mountain Vista subarea. The projected demographics for the Rural Scenario were used as a basis for the transportation model. The Subarea was divided into Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZ) for the model. Potential outcomes are presented in the outcomes section of this paper and are shown within the Mountain Vista Subarea as well in TAZs within the Growth Management Area but outside the Subarea that might be affected. Transportation model results were used to determine vehicle miles traveled and estimate potential GHG emissions under the Rural Scenario. 17 13 Maple Hill Subdivision Story Brook Subdivision Water Field Subdivision Water's Edge Subdivision ¦¨§I-25 Turnberry Rd CR 52 Lindenmeier Rd 200% MVP 180% Rural 8 4 0 % M V P 5 5 0 % R u r a l 190% MVP 170% Rural 200% MVP 180% Rural 2 1 0 % M V P 1 9 0 % R u r a l 1 6 0 % M V P 14 !? !? !? Maple Hill Subdivision Story Brook Subdivision Water Field Subdivision Water's Edge Subdivision ¦¨§I-25 Turnberry Rd CR 52 Lindenmeier Rd 4 Lanes 4 Lanes 4 Lanes N TIMBERLIN E RD R EALIGNED VINE E VINE DR S S UMMIT VIEW DR DUFF D R E LINCOLN AVE GR E ENFIELDS CT A I RP ARK DR S TIM B E R LINE R D JEFFERSON ST E MULBERRY ST INTERSTATE 25 E WILLOX L N LINDEN ST S LEMAY A V E MOUNTAIN VISTA DR BUCKINGHAM S T WILLOW ST N LEMAY AVE 15 Oil & Gas The Rural Scenario accounts for the four existing oil and gas well sites that are located within the Mountain Vista Subarea. Three of these well sites are identified in the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) database as drilled and abandoned and one of the sites is identified as plugged and abandoned. Land use impacts for the Rural Scenario were modelled based upon a 1,000 foot buffer zone from these existing oil and gas wells. State and City setbacks within this zone include the following: • State-adopted uniform 500 foot setbacks from new wells to existing residences. • State-adopted 1,000 foot setback for specified “High Occupancy Buildings”, including schools, day care centers, hospitals, nursing homes, and correctional facilities. • City of Fort Collins minimum setback of 350 feet from new residences to adjacent wells provided a landscape buffer and fencing are included. • City of Fort Collins disclosure requirement for new residential development planned within 1,000 feet of existing well sites. In 2013 the City of Fort Collins voters adopted a moratorium ordinance that prohibits hydraulic fracturing and the storage of its wastes within the City and on City-owned lands for a five-year period. The Colorado Oil and Gas Association (COGA) filed a lawsuit in 2013 challenging this moratorium. This lawsuit is now pending on appeal before the Colorado Court of Appeals and the moratorium is currently unenforceable. Additional information regarding the lawsuit is provided at the following link: http://www.fcgov.com/cityattorney/status.php. As of May 24, 2015 the COGCC database shows no applications for permits to drill or location assessments in the Mountain Vista Subarea. Depending on legal outcomes, oil and gas development could occur in the Subarea in the future, however at this time it is not known where any future wells would be located. Potential Outcomes of the Rural Scenario Potential outcomes of the Rural Scenario are based on the demographic and transportation models, discussions of the working group, and input from the City. They represent an initial review of implementing the Rural Scenario and do not represent a definite course of action. These outcomes can be viewed as beneficial or detrimental, depending on the goals for growth within the City. General • Approximately 70% of the Mountain Vista Subarea will be affected by the Rural Scenario. • The Rural Scenario will affect vehicles miles traveled (VMT) within the Fort Collins Subregion and the larger region. Under the Rural Scenario, VMT for the Fort Collins Subregion will decrease, however VMT for the larger region will increase. Land Use • The Rural Scenario could result in approximately 6,300 fewer households in the Mountain Vista Subarea. • The Rural Scenario could result in approximately 12,700 fewer employees in the Mountain Vista Subarea. 20 16 • The City’s potential population and employment would decrease. Projected population and employment would most likely be shifted to surrounding municipalities, towns and unincorporated areas. • The loss of housing opportunities could cause a net increase in vehicle trips into Fort Collins. • The result would expand the Northeast Community Open Space between Fort Collins, Timnath and Wellington. • The result would provide additional open space buffer to ABI; however, it would remove their additional proposed complementary industrial land. • The Fort Collins growth area would be built out by the year 2040. Under the Mountain Vista Subarea Plan, a few isolated areas would still be available for development. • A narrower range of permitted land uses and density are available with the Rural Scenario than with the current subarea plan. Because City oil and gas buffers apply to new housing and do not apply to agricultural production, implementation of the Rural Scenario could potentially result in expanded interest in oil and gas development in the Subarea. Transportation/Infrastructure • The Master Street Plan in the Mountain Vista Subarea shows Lemay, Mountain Vista, Timberline, and Suniga as ultimate 4-lane arterials. The Master Street Plan shows three grade separated railroad crossings (Lemay, Timberline, and Mountain Vista), and identifies general alignments for several lower classification roads that currently don’t exist (extensions of Conifer and Country Club Road, etc.). The Master Street Plan includes an Enhanced Travel Corridor (ETC) in the Mountain Vista Subarea. Traffic Volumes • Volumes on all roads increase significantly from current volumes (anywhere from 50% to 800%) regardless of the scenario. When comparing estimated 2040 traffic volumes between the Rural Scenario and the Mountain Vista Plan as adopted, the following observations are made: □ Regional roads at the periphery of the Mountain Vista Area (SH1, Mulberry, etc.) will see higher volumes in the Rural Scenario than in the Mountain Vista Plan scenario □ Roadways internal to Mountain Vista Subarea (Timberline, Mountain Vista, New Vine) will see lower volumes in the Rural Scenario than in the Mountain Vista Plan scenario Improvement Needed in Rural Scenario • The following improvements are estimated to still be needed even with the Rural Scenario: □ Completion of Suniga (even in the Rural Scenario sections of Suniga are expected to carry more than 30,000 vehicles/day) □ Widening of Timberline and Mountain Vista to four lane sections □ Lemay realignment and widening in the Vine Street area □ Some sort of railroad solution on Lemay and on Timberline. This could be improved, relocated at-grade crossings, or grade separations. 21 17 Master Plan Items that May Not be Built in Rural Scenario • Extension of Conifer to Timberline. • Internal connector/collector roads shown on Master Street Plan. • Mountain Vista Railroad grade separation may not be needed. • Far North Lemay may not need to be four lanes. Travel Patterns • The Rural Scenario will ‘generate’ significantly fewer trips in/from the area. There will however, be more travel through the area (and likely longer trips) as residential areas are built around Mountain Vista, and commercial centers are further away. Stranded Assets • There are a few improvements already built that may not be needed to the same extent with the Rural Scenario. This includes ROW dedicated for the Conifer extension, and parts of the Turnberry Road construction such as the frontage road. Transit • Under the Rural Scenario the City could lose the ability to provide transit to the Subarea due to the low density. Roadway Classifications • General roadway classifications as shown in the current Master Street Plan will predominantly remain the same. Although some buildout volumes will decrease in the Rural Scenario compared to the Mountain Vista Plan, the function of the roadways will be the same and overall volumes increase enough from existing counts to justify the classifications. The low density land use and lack of commercial amenities in the Rural Scenario may precipitate removal of the Enhanced Travel Corridor (ETC) from this area. Funding • Much of New Vine is planned to be built as development occurs. The same is true for the widening of Timberline and Mountain Vista. If development is limited, then alternative funding will be needed to construct Suniga and widen these other streets. Without planned development in the area, there will be significantly less street oversizing funding available to fund transportation improvements. Housing • Growth that would have occurred in the Mountain Vista Subarea will likely be transferred to other areas within the City of Fort Collins and shifted to Timnath, Wellington and areas east of I-25. • A Rural Scenario will put additional pressure on attainable housing options in the City. The average home price in Fort Collins is $430,332, with an average sold price in Fort Collins of $327,757. Under a Rural Scenario, the transfer of housing to other areas of Fort Collins may 22 18 cause additional demand for infill and redevelopment within the City, where new housing will likely be less attainable for average income purchasers. • There will be a loss of opportunity for increasing the supply of diverse housing choices in the Subarea such as single-family attached and multi-family dwellings. • In addition to attainable housing constraints, opportunities for affordable housing that is publicly assisted will also decrease. The ratio of affordable housing units to market rate units is currently at about 5%. Using this ratio and with an overall reduction of 6,302 households in the Subarea, the Rural Scenario would reduce the total number of affordable dwellings by 315 units. Economic Outcomes • A Land Demand Analysis was completed in 2009 with the current Mountain Vista Subarea Plan which includes data that provides a snapshot of potential economic outcomes with the Rural Scenario. • The following figures are provided with the 2009 Land Demand Analysis: □ Average household income was calculated at $66,802.00 □ Using the average household income, total personal income (TPI) for the subarea was calculated for current and projected households (through 2030), with a total TPI in 2030 listed as $500,000,000 in the subarea, based on a projected 7,385 total households in 2030. □ The TPI was used to analyze the potential net new retail expenditures in the subarea from 2008-2030, with a total new retail expenditure of $135,300,000 based on 6,300 additional households projected in the subarea. □ Total square feet of retail/commercial buildings was projected to be 205,000 square feet on 22 to 31 acres in the Subarea. • Based on the figures provided in the 2009 analysis, the reduction in retail expenditures and reduction in households will result in significant reductions in projected City sales tax and property tax revenues with the implementation of the Rural Scenario. • The 2009 land demand analysis also outlined that the Mountain Vista Subarea represents one of the few remaining places in the City with large developable Employment and Industrial parcels. The parcels also have immediate access to Interstate 25 and rail service suitable for large campus- style office and industrial development. • At the time of the 2009 study, total land capacity in the City for Employment-zoned land was 1,143 acres, with 912 acres of Industrial-zoned land. Of this total, the Mountain Vista Subarea represented 661 acres (65%) of the total City employment land and 457 acres (50%) of the total Industrial-zoned land in the City. • With the current Mountain Vista Subarea containing a significant portion of the City’s Employment and Industrial zoning, a rural model will significantly reduce the land capacity available for new employment in the community and future City-wide revenue loss would be significant. 23 19 Fees • With developments that have already occurred in the Mountain Vista Subarea, City of Fort Collins Parks has already collected fees for future parks in the Subarea. These funds would need to be re-appropriated. • Fees collected by the City with new development are intended to fund utility and transportation expansion, costs related to the continued maintenance of utility infrastructure, and costs related to the expansion of parks and other services. • A summary of the fees due with new development in the Mountain Vista Subarea include: □ City and County Sales/Use Tax □ Larimer County Transportation Expansion Fee □ Street Oversizing Capital Expansion Fee □ Capital Improvement Expansion Fees (Community Parkland, Neighborhood Parkland, Fire, General Government Services, Police) □ Poudre School District Impact Fee □ Electric Service Fees □ Stormwater fee (due monthly) • All residential and commercial fees described above vary depending on a number of factors such as type of use, lot area, amount of open space within the development, size of the structures, size and scope of utilities required, irrigation needs, and other factors. Because the fees are based on use and development intensity, a detailed site development plan model for both the Rural Scenario and the adopted Mountain Vista Plan would be needed to provide a comprehensive comparison. A comprehensive comparison would also need to predict how fees and building valuations might change over time. • The City Wastewater Plant Investment Fee Water Plant Investment Fee would not be required because in the majority of the Mountain Vista Subarea is in the ELCO district. • Overall, City fees collected will decrease significantly with the Rural Scenario, and because the fees collected are tailored to serve the scope of the development proposed, fewer fees would be needed with the Rural Scenario. Because some of the development fees such as Street Oversizing can be applied to improvements needed City-wide, additional outreach would be needed to determine whether City-wide services or improvements would be affected, or whether fee rates would need to be adjusted with the Rural Scenario, as well as determining the potential effects to service providers other than the City. Utilities • Service providers that have extended services into the Mountain Vista Subarea will see a reduction in planned expansion. Stormwater • Stormwater infrastructure in the area would still be necessary and is independent of development in the Mountain Vista Subarea since it is part of a regional system. However, there will be a loss in fees if the Mountain Vista Subarea is not developed as currently planned. 24 20 Electric • Electric transmission utilities would remain unchanged under the Rural Scenario; however the amount of anticipated local distribution lines would decrease. Water, Sewer and Energy • Regional sewer infrastructure would remain unchanged under the Rural Scenario, however the amount of anticipated local connections would decrease • Anticipated City water and energy demand would decrease, however this most likely would not affect regional demands. Agriculture • The area is currently used for large scale crop production including corn, with production based on availability of raw water, changing market demands and individual farming practices. • Various levels of agricultural production are possible with both the Rural Scenario and adopted Mountain Vista Subarea Plan. The Rural Scenario allows for more flexibility for general large scale agricultural production to continue based on market demand, as well as flexibility for other uses that require large land areas such as large-scale solar facilities. • Section 3.8.31 the Land Use Code defines the general requirements for Urban Agriculture which are permitted within any zone district in the City. These standards do not limit the size of an urban agricultural operation, provided that potential impacts to the surrounding community are mitigated. The rural model allows more flexibility for large scale food production in the future if demand for community or regional food production cannot be met by other urban agricultural facilities within the GMA. Environmental • The analysis of the transportation model comparing the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) projected the following results at 2040. The Region includes Fort Collins, Greeley, Loveland and Timnath. The Subregion is Fort Collins only (boundaries of the City Growth Management Area). • 2040 VMT with current Mountain Vista Subarea Plan: □ Region: 23,134,856 □ Subregion: 5,324,197 • 2040 VMT with Rural Scenario: □ Region: 23,303,136 □ Subregion: 5,297,659 • VMT Change: □ Region: 168,280 additional VMT □ Subregion: 26,538 fewer VMT • The impact of an increase of 168,280 VMT with the rural model projected regionally would result in an increase of 94 metric tons of CO2e emissions (all greenhouse gas) at 2040. • The impact of a decrease of 26,538 VMT within the GMA would result in a decrease of 15 mt CO2e with the rural model in 2040. 25 21 • The net impact to the City of Fort Collins GMA of both the regional and subarea changes in VMT to implement the Rural Scenario would result in an increase of 79 mt CO2e by 2040. • The total GHG emissions from community VMT were 636,101 mt CO2e and this comprises 27.8% of total GHG emissions for 2014 within the City GMA. • Other GHG impacts related to implementing the Rural Scenario: □ Less retail and industrial buildings and 6,000 fewer households will result in lower GHG emissions in the Mountain Vista Subarea due to lower electricity and natural gas usage and generation of solid waste vs. the proposed rural alternative development plan. The emissions associated with electricity and natural gas usage are 68.5% of City total GHG emissions for 2014. • Reduced building density can positively impact ecosystem functions by: □ Preserving impervious surfaces maintains the ability of soil and vegetation to clean groundwater □ Continued carbon sequestration in soils from reducing soil disturbance □ Maintain ecosystem nutrient cycling • Reduced land development preserves habitat, wildlife corridors, possible recreational opportunities, plant and animal population numbers and biodiversity, and natural/scenic vistas. • The Rural Scenario would likely result in less generation of new waste products (including hazardous wastes) that may contaminate the soil, surface and groundwater, and outdoor air because of the absence of any commercial or industrial businesses and fewer residences. This waste reduction would occur within the boundary of the Mountain Vista Subarea. • The projected increases in ground travel in the region, outside of the GMA, would result in increases in air pollutants associated with vehicle transportation: NOx, SOX, CO, SO2, and particulate matter. Reductions in emissions within the Mountain Vista Subarea Rural Scenario may be offset by the transfer of growth to these nearby areas outside of the City GMA. Zoning Considerations • Rezoning the Mountain Vista Subarea is expected to be highly controversial due to the significant reduction that alternative zoning will have on current land values and anticipated expectations under the current plan. • If the subarea is not developed as currently planned under the Mountain Vista Subarea Plan and is eventually de-annexed, another city might acquire and develop the area. This would create fragmented jurisdictions in which new IGA’s would be needed in order to provide adequate services including police, fire and utilities. External Entities • With the Rural Scenario, the planned school in the Mountain Vista Subarea will be a middle school within Poudre School District (PSD). The school will be located on approximately half of the acreage originally planned under the Mountain Vista Subarea Plan. This middle school will be within the Poudre School District. Since this is a School of Choice district, residents in Wellington and Timnath could attend the middle school 26 22 CONCLUSIONS This analysis is an initial, high-level look at what a Rural Scenario might look like in the Mountain Vista Subarea and what potential outcomes could result from this limited development option. Implementation of the Rural Scenario will limit development in the Subarea; and this development will be shifted to surrounding communities and unincorporated areas beyond the GMA. The decrease in housing density will affect housing diversity and affordability within the City GMA. Residents currently living in the Mountain Vista Subarea will drive farther for services. Many of the planned improvements to existing roadways and intersections are estimated to still be needed under the Rural Scenario. The Rural Scenario will ‘generate’ significantly fewer trips in/from the area. There will be more travel through the area (and likely longer trips) as residential areas are built around Mountain Vista, and commercial centers are further away. Stormwater infrastructure in the area will still be necessary and is independent of development in the Mountain Vista Subarea since it is part of a regional system. The Rural Scenario will affect the transportation network, infrastructure, housing options for residents, and travel times to services. The redistribution of housing and employment will reduce fees and taxes collected by the City. The Rural Scenario could result in an increase in agricultural production in the area within the RUL zoning. MOUNTAIN VISTA ASSESSMENT WORKING GROUP Cameron Gloss, Planning Manager Ted Shepard, Chief Planner Pete Wray, Senior City Planner Jason Holland, City Planner Aaron Iverson, Senior Transportation Planner Martina Wilkinson, Traffic Engineer Shane Boyle, Civil Engineer III, Utility/Water Systems Engineering Dan Mogen, Civil Engineer I, Utility/Water Systems Engineering 27 23 Appendix 1 Glossary of Terms Term Definition Zoning District Districts as defined by the City of Fort Collins Land Use Code RUL Rural Lands District CC Community Commercial District E Employment District I Industrial District LMN Low Density Mixed-Use Neighborhood District MMN Medium Density Mixed-Use Neighborhood District T Transition District POL Public Open Lands PSD Poudre School District TAZ Transportation Analysis Zone GMA Growth Management Area 28 24 Appendix 2 Density Requirements for Rural Scenario Districts District Description/Density Requirements RUL Single-family detached maximum residential density - 1 dwelling unit per 10 acres CC All residential permitted uses, except mixed use dwellings in multistory mixed use buildings, for projects containing 10 or more acres, together may occupy no more than 30 percent of the total gross area of any development plan. E Overall minimum average density - 7 dwelling units per net acre of residential land. I All new structures greater than 50,000 square feet in gross leasable area are subject to Planning and Zoning Board review. LMN • Overall minimum average density - 4 dwelling units per net acre of residential land. • Residential developments containing 20 acres or less - overall minimum average density of 3 dwelling units per net acre of residential land. • Maximum density of any development plan taken as a whole - 9 dwelling units per gross acre of residential land. • Affordable housing projects containing 10 acres or less - 12 dwellings units per gross acre of residential land. • Maximum density of any phase in a multiple-phase development plan - 12 dwelling units per gross acre of residential land. • Maximum density of any portion of a phase containing a grouping of 2 or more multi- family structures - 12 dwelling units per gross acre of residential land. MMN • Overall minimum average density - 12 dwelling units per net acre of residential land. • Residential developments containing 20 acres or less - overall minimum average density of 7 dwelling units per net acre of residential land. • Minimum residential density of any phase in a multiple-phase development plan - 7 dwelling units per net acre of residential land. T The Transition District is intended for properties for which there are no specific and immediate plans for development. POL The Public Open Lands District is for large publicly owned parks and open lands which have a community-wide emphasis or other characteristics which warrant inclusion under this separate designation rather than inclusion in an adjoining neighborhood or other District designation. 29 25 Appendix 3 ALL OTHER MAPS 30 26 Number of Households by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZs) 1.0 - 2.0 2.1 - 4.0 4.1 - 70.0 70.1 - 200.0 200.1 - 555.0 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Date: 5/20/2015 1 in = 2,200 feet L O G A N S I M P S O N Existing Conditions: Total Households at 2012 1,405 31 27 Number of Households by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZs) 2.0 - 5.0 5.1 - 20.0 20.1 - 70.0 70.1 - 300.0 300.1 - 942.0 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Date: 5/20/2015 1 in = 2,200 feet L O G A N S I M P S O N Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Build Out: Households 9,539 32 28 Number of Employees by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZs) 0 - 3 4 - 20 21 - 40 41 - 135 136 - 250 251 - 500 501 - 3500 3501 - 6500 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Date: 5/18/2015 1 in = 2,200 feet L O G A N S I M P S O N Existing Conditions: Total Employees at 2012 883 33 29 Number of Employees by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZs) 0 - 3 4 - 20 21 - 40 41 - 135 136 - 250 251 - 500 501 - 3500 3501 - 6500 Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Date: 5/18/2015 1 in = 2,200 feet L O G A N S I M P S O N Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Build Out: Employment 26,618 34 30 > > > Maple Hill Subdivision Story Brook Subdivision Water Field Subdivision Water's Edge Subdivision ¦¨§I-25 Turnberry Rd CR 52 Lindenmeier Rd N TIMBERLIN E RD R EALIGNED VINE E VINE DR S S UMMIT VIEW DR DUFF D R E LINCOLN AVE GR E ENFIELDS CT A I RPARK DR S TIM B E R LINE R D E MULBERRY ST INTERSTATE 25 E WIL LOX L N LINDEN ST S LEMAY A V E MOUNTAIN VISTA DR BUCKINGHAM S T WILLOW ST N LEMAY AVE TERRY LAKE R D GIDDINGS RD STOVER ST INTERNATIO 71 736 VU68 College 4 2 371 58 661285 12 8 13 Cache La Poudr e River Horsetooth Re s ervoir N COUNTY HWY 9E COUNTY HWY 50 N COUNTY HWY 19 COUNTY HWY 40 STATE HWY 14 COUNTY HWY 44 COUNTY HWY 13 COUNTY HWY 19 STATE HWY 392 E PROSPECT RD W MULBERRY ST COUNTY HWY 34 COUNTY HWY 21 COUNTY HWY 17 S COUNTY HWY 9E JEFFERSON ST W VINE DR N DRAKE DR I 25 LINDENMEIER DR AIRPORT DR COUNTY HWY 11 9TH ST COUNTY HWY 38W S COUNTY HWY 11 COUNTY HWY 9E LEMAY AVE N OVERLAND TRL S 9TH ST E COUNTY HWY 44 STATE HWY 1 N COUNTY HWY 17 N LEMAY AVE RAMP S LEMAY AVE CORD 19 N TAFT HILL RD SW FRONTAGE RD COUNTY HWY 48 S OVERLAND TRL N SHIELDS ST TIMBERLINE RD §¦¨25 £¤287 UV1 UV68 Bu c h a nan 56e 54g Eisenhower Cleveland College Garfield 607 380 4 43 183 1 121 129 23 35 12 1 35 25 56 173 36 66 53 134 40 20 3 55 42 39 123 40 478 70 38 736 441 2457 1546 753 18 197 90 186 11 39 298 6 2 Sai nt V rain 8th 14 2nd Cleveland 18th 36 56e Mountain Oak 1st Hill 54g Main Ei s enhower Garfield Fall Rive r 8 5 34 Lincoln College VU37 VU56 VU392 VU60 VU1 VU14 VU257 VU7 VU402 VU256 VU68 ¤£34 ¤£36 ¤£85 ¤£287 ¦¨§25 ¦¨§76 0 50 100 200 Miles µ Interstate Highway Local Road Railroad Fort Collins Subregion Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Rivers Lakes FORT COLLINS 1 - 100 5000 - 8000 VU68 College 18 6 11 8 70 213 157 143 2 7 170 6 136 849 144 62 5 1630 5 2 18 6 430 47 8 16 17 32 3 1377 51 8 1 21 12 3 1 3 3 4 13 1 1 2 2 2 4 29 12 8 138 13 40 4 18 3 4 4 2 22 5 3 3 88 478 255 323 283 53 20 25 4 18 18 8 19 6 64 6 248 563 406 6 11 37 1744 8 70 213 157 1 3 40 88 4 1 50 2 143 52 246 302 48 67 107 629 310 737 8 857 2 7 170 109 99 6 935 1977 935 788 136 849 8 Sai nt V rain 8th 14 2nd Cleveland 18th 36 56e Mountain Oak 1st Hill 54g Main Ei s enhower Garfield Fall Rive r 8 5 34 Lincoln College VU37 VU56 VU392 VU60 VU1 VU14 VU257 VU7 VU402 VU256 VU68 ¤£34 ¤£36 ¤£85 ¤£287 ¦¨§25 ¦¨§76 0 50 100 200 Miles µ Interstate Highway Local Road Railroad Fort Collins Subregion Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Rivers Lakes FORT COLLINS Areas with Available Employment in the NFRMPO Region 2040 1 - 100 DATE: STAFF: June 9, 2015 Jason Holland, City Planner Cameron Gloss, Planning Manager Jeff Mihelich, Deputy City Manager Laurie Kadrich, Community Development & Neighborhood Services Dir WORK SESSION ITEM City Council SUBJECT FOR DISCUSSION Alternative Growth Model for the Mountain Vista Subarea Plan EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In response to potential concerns regarding the cost to provide the full range of urban services to the Mountain Vista area, the City of Fort Collins has evaluated a hypothetical rural development scenario (Rural Scenario) for the adopted Mountain Vista Subarea Plan that would reduce the density/intensity of planned development. The evaluation of the alternative considers a broad range of topics that fall under environmental, economic and social outcomes. Particular focus has been provided on effects to transportation infrastructure. A summary of potential outcomes is included on the first two pages of the attached report. GENERAL DIRECTION SOUGHT AND SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED Should staff move into a second phase of the analysis, including outreach to Mountain Vista property owners and the public? BACKGROUND / DISCUSSION The Mountain Vista Subarea is located in the northeast quadrant of Fort Collins, bordered by Richards Lake Road to the north, Interstate 25 to the east, Vine Drive to the south, and Turnberry Road and Lemay Avenue to the west. Historically agricultural in use, a large portion of the subarea remains undeveloped, with the exception of four residential neighborhoods and the Anheuser- Busch InBev (ABI) brewery. Plan Fort Collins, and the corresponding Mountain Vista Subarea Plan, identified that the City’s northeast quadrant would provide long-term community growth opportunities due to a limited supply of buildable vacant land available throughout the balance of the Fort Collins’ Growth Management Area (GMA). The Mountain Vista Subarea Plan, originally adopted in March 1999 and subsequently updated in September 2009, lays a community development framework for a large, primarily undeveloped area of northeast Fort Collins. The 2009 update was responsive to the ideas and concerns of the many stakeholders involved, including area property owners, residents, the City of Fort Collins, and the broader community. Most of the land within the subarea was annexed in the 1980s, but a few parcels remain outside of the City limits. These parcels are expected to annex at the time of development or as part of an enclave annexation. Since additional background information may be helpful, the adopted Mountain Vista Subarea Plan document can be found in this direct link: <http://www.fcgov.com/planning/pdf/mvsp-doc.pdf> No public outreach has been conducted with this phase of the assessment. An additional phase could be provided that includes a more detailed sustainability assessment and extensive public outreach. Due to the complexity of the subject, City costs, scope and timing for an additional phase would need further evaluation. ATTACHMENTS 1. Mountain Vista Assessment-5-28-2015 (PDF) 42 5000 - 8000 3000 - 5000 2000 - 3000 1000 - 2000 500 - 1000 100 - 500 0 8000 - 14000 41 144 62 5 1630 45 1781 5 514 7 3369 555 4 2 2 40 2 39 182 4 11 2 53 84 202 18 152 6 254 62 5 6 73 231 10854181 30 974 8 24 5216 4 259 237 190 42 377 306 40 2533 2478 3861 495 256 319 3087 1082 430 47 8 16 192 35 47 17 32 3 1377 3 51 8 1 21 12 3 1 3 3 4 13 1 1 2 2 2 4 44 29 12 8 138 179 13 40 4 18 3 4 93 4 2 22 5 3 6 1 6 41 7 10 111 74 11 32 1459 125494 171 1150 2 153 24 553 214 6 15 69 4 1597 60 1016 2355 2798 534 27 1971197 222 770 164 1084 814 525 1414 995 1662 1490 171 602 490 26 1543 1771 362 1183 478 9 117 255 21 323 283 53 550 1184 42 20 1400 1573 949 136 190 230 7 7 73 52 7 2951225 1830 19 3 70 6187 3674 858 38 1886 5341 372 1229 22 10 42 1 4 9 1 1 26 233 121 2 Horsetooth Reservoir C ac h e L a Poud r e R i v e r STATE HWY 392 N COUNTY HWY 9E STATE HWY 14 COUNTY HWY 50 N COUNTY HWY 19 COUNTY HWY 40 COUNTY HWY 13 E PROSPECT RD STATE HWY 257 I 25 STATE HWY 1 W MULBERRY ST COUNTY HWY 34 COUNTY HWY 21 COUNTY HWY 17 S COUNTY HWY 9E 7TH ST N DRAKE DR US HWY 287 COUNTY HWY 9 AIRPORT DR 6TH ST 9TH ST COUNTY HWY 44 US HWY 34 LEMAY AVE S 9TH ST N COUNTY HWY 17 COUNTY HWY 24E FRONTAGE RD E 29TH ST N LEMAY AVE RAMP S LEMAY AVE CORD 19 MADISON AVE WILSON AVE COUNTY HWY 3 COUNTY HWY 48 N COUNTY HWY 11C S OVERLAND TRL N SHIELDS ST TIMBERLINE RD E HORSETOOTH RD COUNTY HWY 50E S TAFT HILL RD E DRAKE RD W 29TH ST COUNTY HWY 7 SW FRONTAGE RD RIVERSIDE AVE W DRAKE RD COUNTY HWY 28 COUNTY HWY 64 W PROSPECT RD COUNTY HWY 100 COUNTY HWY 74 S SHIELDS ST COUNTY HWY 38 14 Buchanan 56e Clev e land Lincoln 54g Eisenhower 287 34 College Garfield VU14 VU257 VU1 VU392 VU68 £¤287 £¤34 §¦¨25 §¦¨76 0 50 100 200 Miles µ Interstate Highway Local Road Railroad Cities Subregion Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Rivers Lakes FORT COLLINS Areas with Available Employment in the Fort Collins Region 2040 1 - 100 5000 - 8000 3000 - 5000 2000 - 3000 1000 - 2000 500 - 1000 100 - 500 0 8000 - 14000 40 6 1 6 41 7 10 111 74 11 32 1150 24 6 15 7 73 1 4 9 1 1 26 233 121 2 Cache La Poudr e River Horsetooth Re s ervoir N COUNTY HWY 9E COUNTY HWY 50 N COUNTY HWY 19 COUNTY HWY 40 STATE HWY 14 COUNTY HWY 44 COUNTY HWY 13 COUNTY HWY 19 STATE HWY 392 E PROSPECT RD W MULBERRY ST COUNTY HWY 34 COUNTY HWY 21 COUNTY HWY 17 S COUNTY HWY 9E JEFFERSON ST W VINE DR N DRAKE DR I 25 LINDENMEIER DR AIRPORT DR COUNTY HWY 11 9TH ST COUNTY HWY 38W S COUNTY HWY 11 COUNTY HWY 9E LEMAY AVE N OVERLAND TRL S 9TH ST E COUNTY HWY 44 STATE HWY 1 N COUNTY HWY 17 N LEMAY AVE RAMP S LEMAY AVE CORD 19 N TAFT HILL RD SW FRONTAGE RD COUNTY HWY 48 S OVERLAND TRL N SHIELDS ST TIMBERLINE RD E HORSETOOTH RD COUNTY HWY 50E S TAFT HILL RD E DRAKE RD RIVERSIDE AVE US HWY 287 W DRAKE RD W PROSPECT RD S SHIELDS ST COUNTY HWY 38 14 Garfield 287 College VU14 VU392 VU1 VU68 £¤287 §¦¨25 §¦¨76 0 50 100 200 Miles µ Interstate Highway Local Road Railroad Fort Collins Subregion Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Rivers Lakes FORT COLLINS Areas with Available Employment in Fort Collins 2040 1 - 100 5000 - 8000 3000 - 5000 2000 - 3000 1000 - 2000 500 - 1000 100 - 500 0 8000 - 14000 39 3000 - 5000 2000 - 3000 1000 - 2000 500 - 1000 100 - 500 0 Areas with Available Housing in the NFRMPO Region 2040 38 100 92 144 2 9 22 2 19 22 19 13 88 81 148 2 8 5 35 162 120 25 20 12 16 59 8 69 76 69 12 85272 61 146 66 35 32 13 3 76 53 2 24 71 1 1 371 58 661285 9 25 4 16 125 2778 86 499 175 1291 453 68 366193 749 412 341 424 510 11 265 709491 246 16 525 105 1056 5 10 1 6 6 198 2580 5 17 14 344 41 1278 594 2580 618 1084 4 4 82 337 253 469 581 270 1009 386 681150 772 1316 501 2366 593 406 528 317266 30837 164 507 119 1761128 4630 192 1049 144 549 12 182 116 93 12 8 13 Horsetooth Reservoir C ac h e L a Poud r e R i v e r STATE HWY 392 N COUNTY HWY 9E STATE HWY 14 COUNTY HWY 50 N COUNTY HWY 19 COUNTY HWY 40 COUNTY HWY 13 E PROSPECT RD STATE HWY 257 I 25 STATE HWY 1 W MULBERRY ST COUNTY HWY 34 COUNTY HWY 21 COUNTY HWY 17 S COUNTY HWY 9E 7TH ST N DRAKE DR US HWY 287 COUNTY HWY 9 9TH ST COUNTY HWY 44 US HWY 34 LEMAY AVE N COUNTY HWY 17 COUNTY HWY 24E FRONTAGE RD N LEMAY AVE RAMP S LEMAY AVE CORD 19 MADISON AVE WILSON AVE COUNTY HWY 3 COUNTY HWY 48 N COUNTY HWY 11C S OVERLAND TRL N SHIELDS ST TIMBERLINE RD E HORSETOOTH RD COUNTY HWY 50E S TAFT HILL RD E DRAKE RD W 29TH ST COUNTY HWY 7 SW FRONTAGE RD RIVERSIDE AVE W DRAKE RD COUNTY HWY 64 W PROSPECT RD COUNTY HWY 100 COUNTY HWY 74 S SHIELDS ST COUNTY HWY 38 14 56e Clevela n d Lincoln 54g E isenhower 287 34 College Garfield VU14 VU257 VU1 VU392 VU68 £¤287 £¤34 §¦¨25 §¦¨76 0 50 100 200 Miles µ Interstate Highway Local Road Railroad Cities Subregion Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Rivers Lakes FORT COLLINS Areas with Available Housing in the Fort Collins Region 2040 1 - 100 5000 - 8000 3000 - 5000 2000 - 3000 1000 - 2000 500 - 1000 100 - 500 0 37 E HORSETOOTH RD COUNTY HWY 50E S TAFT HILL RD E DRAKE RD RIVERSIDE AVE US HWY 287 W DRAKE RD W PROSPECT RD S SHIELDS ST COUNTY HWY 38 14 Garfield 287 College VU14 VU392 VU1 VU68 £¤287 §¦¨25 §¦¨76 0 50 100 200 Miles µ Interstate Highway Local Road Railroad Cities Subregion Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Rivers Lakes FORT COLLINS Areas with Available Housing in Fort Collins 2040 1 - 100 5000 - 8000 3000 - 5000 2000 - 3000 1000 - 2000 500 - 1000 100 - 500 0 36 N AL BLVD E ELIZABETH ST COUN TRY CLUB R D E LAUREL ST REALIGNED TIMBE R LI N E S LINK LN REDWOO D ST RIVERSIDE AVE GR E G O R Y RD E DOUGLAS RD H E A R T H F I R E W A Y AB B OT S F O RD ST N COUNTY ROAD 9 TURNBERRY RD SUNIGA RD CONIFER ST Master Street Plan and Current Conditions 12015± Date: in = 2,5/718 27/feet Not Built to Current Standards for Number of Lanes Does Not Exist > Potential Grade Separated Rail Crossings 35 TERRY LAKE R D GIDDINGS RD STOVER ST INT ERNATIO N AL BLVD E ELIZABETH ST COUNTRY CLUB R D E LAUREL ST REALIGNED TIMBE R LI N E S LINK LN REDWOO D ST RIVERSIDE AVE GR E G O R Y RD E DOUGLAS RD H E A R T H F I R E W A Y A B B OT S F O RD ST N COUNTY ROAD 9 TURNBERRY RD SUNIGA R D CONIFER ST Rural Scenario Roadway Improvement Needs 12015± Date: in = 2,5/716 27/feet Improvements Still Needed with the Rural Scenario Roadways that May not Need to be Built in the Rural Scenario !? Railroad Crossing Solution Needed 19 1 7 0 % R u r a l 2 3 0 % M V P 1 4 0 % R u r a l 360% MVP 300% Rural 620% MVP 600% Rural 2 0 % M V P 3 0 % R u r a l 900% MV P 400% Rur al 300% MVP 400% Rural N TIMBERLIN E RD R EALIGNED VINE E VINE DR S S UMMIT VIEW DR DUFF D R E LINCOLN AVE GR E ENFIELDS CT A I RPARK DR S TIM B E R LINE R D E MULBERRY ST INTERSTATE 25 E W ILLOX L N LINDEN ST S LEMAY A V E MOUNTAIN VISTA DR BUCKINGHAM S T WILLOW ST N LEMAY AVE TERRY LAKE R D GIDDINGS RD STOVER ST INTERNATIO N AL BLVD E ELIZABETH ST CO UNTRY CLUB R D E LAUREL ST S LINK LN REDWOO D ST RIVERSIDE AVE G REGORY R D E DOUGLAS RD H E A R T H F I R E W A Y AB B OT S F O RD ST N COUNTY ROAD 9 TURNBERRY RD SUNIG A RD CONIFER ST Initial Estimate of Potential Traffic Volume Changes Between 2015 and 2040 12015± Date: in = 2,5/718 27/feet Traffic increase is greater with the Rural Scenario Plan Traffic increase is greater with the Mountain Vista Subarea Plan 18 SCHOOL DISTRICT K AND M COMPANY WEISS DONALD D/BEVERLY A Date: 5/27/2015 Cityfeet Limits 1 in = 1,750 ± Stormwater Detention Industrial Low Density Mixed Use Neighborhood Medium Mixed Use Neighborhood Parks Rural Lands District PSD School Site Transition District Drilled & Capped Oil/Gas Wells 1000' Oil & Gas Buffer Rural Scenario Land Use 11 SCHOOL DISTRICT K AND M COMPANY WEISS DONALD D/BEVERLY A Date: 6/1/2015 Cityfeet Limits 1 in = 1,750 ± Stormwater Detention Community Commercial Employment Industrial Transition District Low Density Mixed Use Neighborhood Medium Density Mixed Use Neighborhood Park PSD School Site Drilled & Capped Oil/Gas Wells 1000' Oil & Gas Buffer Mountain Vista Subarea Plan Land Use 10 electric service fees. Greater traffic congestion on local roads due to associated regional traffic increase. Decrease in solid waste generated. Fewer City facilities, services and programs needed to serve Mountain Vista. Lack of transit opportunity linking the Mountain Vista Community Commercial Center/school/park to central Fort Collins. Greater opportunity to preserve natural habitat, wildlife corridors, plant and animal population numbers/ biodiversity and natural/scenic vistas. Reduction in sales and property tax revenues relative to reduced number of households. Lost opportunity of a Community Park site, recreation center and trail system. Additional land will be available for oil and gas development in the Subarea. +- 50% of acquired PSD school site becomes a stranded asset. 5