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HomeMy WebLinkAboutEconomic Advisory Commission - Minutes - 12/12/2007Minutes City of Fort Collins Economic Advisory Commission Regular Meeting 300 Laporte Ave City Hall December 12, 2007 11:00-1:00 p.m. For Reference: Christophe Fabvre, Chair 227-0282 Mayor Doug Hutchinson, Council Liaison 416-2154 Mike Freeman, Staff Liaison 416-2253 Erin Gill, Minute taker 221-6505 Commission Members Present Christophe Febvre (Chair), Rick Price, Bill Timpson, Blue Hovatter, Beena Bawa, Commission Members Absent: Sarah Hach, Stu McMillan, Jim Clark, Kevin Shaw Guests: Ann Hutchison Wade Troxell Martin Shields David Keyser City Staff Present: Mike Freeman Erin Gill Agenda Item 1 – Meeting Call to Order Meeting called to order 11:00a.m. Agenda Item 2 – Approval of Minutes Unanimous approval of minutes 10/16, 10/31 and 11/7 Adenda Item 3 - Public Comment None Agenda Item 4 – Vote on Bike Plan recommendation Rick Price moved the Economic Advisory Commission (EAC) recommend that the City Council appoint a Bicycle Advisory Committee whose charge is to develop a comprehensive community bike plan. As part of this plan, the EAC recommends that the Bicycle Advisory Committee study the ongoing economic benefits of implementing the Bike Plan and its proposed projects. The EAC believes that the efforts to date in promoting biking in Fort Collins have positively impacted our economic health, but there is little quantitative evidence to support this belief. The Bicycle Advisory Committee could significantly advance our understanding of the relationship between economic health and a world class biking community. Christophe Febvre second, and motion passed unanimously. Agenda Item 5 – Martin Shields Economics Presentation Northern Colorado’s Economy: Recent Trends and the Outlook for 2008 Martin Shields David Keyser DepartmentEconomics Department of Economics Colorado State University Today’s Story ►►The The Northern Colorado economy grew rapidly…perhaps too much so…in the 1990s. ►►This This growth was driven, in part, by high tech. ►►But But it was actually much more diversified than is recognized by folklore. ►►In In a sense, Northern Colorado “came of age” in the 1990s. Today’s Story ►►In In 2003, the economy bottomed out in the wake of the 2001 recession. ►►Since Since then, employment growth rates have exceeded both Colorado and the US. ►►However, However, annual employment growth has been notably less than what we saw in the 1990s. Today’s Story ►► One downside of the recovery is that regional real wages and per capita incomes have stagnated, or even declined. ►► This has led to great consternation. Expectations (read local investments) are built largely on experience, and the recent experience has not met expectations. ƒƒ This is especially true in the regional housing market. ►► And national uncertainty is likely to show up in the regional economy over the next couple of years. Where We Are, How We Got Here and Where We are Heading ►►An An overview of recent trends in ƒƒ Population ƒƒ Employment and Earnings ƒƒ Unemployment ƒƒ Housing ►►What What does 2008 hold in store? ►►Moving Moving forward in Fort Collins State Population Projections Indicate Continued Growth 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 population Source: Colorado Demographer Larimer County Growth Primarily in the Cities while Weld County Sees the Expansion of Denver Source: Colorado Demographer The The Evolution Evolution of of the the Regional Regional Economy Economy Regional Employment Trends Follow the Nation… -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Northern Colorado Colorado US Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Colorado Department of Labor and Employment/QCEW ……but but Recent Regional Growth Much Slower than the 1990s 4.2% 1.4% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Employment Change Average, 1990 - 2000 Average, 2001 - 2006 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Colorado Department of Labor and Employment/QCEW And post-post -Recession Growth Looks Much Different Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Construction Retail Mining Information Utilities -6,000 -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Health Care and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services Educational Services Finance and Insurance Management of Companies and Enterprises Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Other Services (except Public Administration) Admin., Support, Waste Mgmt, Remediation Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting Transportation and Warehousing Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment/QCEW 1990s Employment Growth: Was it Really all the “New Economy”? 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing Information Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Job change: 1990-2000 Hardly. The Region Matured Right before Our Eyes 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Federal Government Non Elec Man Transportation and Utilities Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing Information WholesaleTrade Local Non Edu Other Services Financial Activities Local Government educational services State Government Administrative and Support and Waste Education and health services Professional and Business Services, Excluding Admin, Support, Waste Leisure and Hospitality NaturalResources,Mining,&Construction Retail Trade Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Job change: 1990-2000 As a Result We Now Have a Diverse Regional Economy 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Utilities Management of Companies and Enterprises Mining Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Information Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Transportation and Warehousing Other Services (except Public Administration) Wholesale Trade Finance and Insurance Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Construction Accommodation and Food Services Health Care and Social Assistance Manufacturing Educational Services Retail Number of Jobs 12.1 % 10.8% 10.6% 9.9% 9.8% 9.0% 5.7% 5.7% 3.5% 3.2% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 2006 Total Employment: 207,737 Private Sectors 94.4% of Total Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics The The Aftermath Aftermath A Few Soft Spots in an Unremarkable Recovery Despite the Slowdown Regional Unemployment Remains Low 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (June) NFR Colorado US Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics But Real Per Capita Income and Earnings are Stagnant $26,000 $28,000 $30,000 $32,000 $34,000 $36,000 $38,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 ((Worker2006 Dollars)Real Per Capita Income Real Earnings Per Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Colorado Department of Labor and Employment/QCEW, Bureau of Labor Statistics And Single Family Building Permits Have Declined Dramatically 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 January - May June - December Source: US Census Bureau Have Have the the Glory Glory Days Days Passed Passed Us Us By? By? 2008 State Employment Forecast ►►For For Colorado we predict 1 percent employment growth ƒƒ Strongest growth in basic services ƒƒ Jobs lost in electronics and communications sectors ►►This Thisin is in--line with other forecasts ƒƒ Tucker Hart-Hart -Adams (aka “the Duchess of Doom”) calls for 0.5 percent growth ƒƒ State agencies: 1.5 and 1.8 percent Regional Employment Growth Expected to Slow in 2008 0.3% -0.6% 1.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.1% 1.9% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Colorado State University Growth will be Mixed Across Industries 50 550 1,050 1,550 2,050 2,550 3,050 Information Manufacturing Transportation and Utilities Wholesale Trade Other Services Finance Retail Trade Education, Health Care, and Social Assistance Leisure Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Professional, Scientific, Technical, and Business Services 2007-2008 2007-2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Colorado State University A Rebound in 2009? 0.3% -0.6% 1.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.1% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Colorado State University What that Means for Northern Colorado ►►Typically, Typically, when the US economy drags, Colorado follows ƒƒ But it usually is not instantaneous ►►Thus, Thus, if the US turns down in late 2008, we expect the problems will most likely manifest themselves locally in 2009 The Upshot ►► The maturation of the Northern Colorado economy insulates us somewhat from severe economic downturns ►► But we can’t be lulled into a false sense of complacency ►► In Northern Colorado sustained long-long -term growth is more dependent on local innovation ►► Economic clusters should be the focus of these regional efforts Northern Northern Colorado’s Colorado’s Economic Economic Clusters Clusters Background ►►Industry Industry clusters are a collection of businesses and other organizations that benefitproximity benefit from geographic proximity ƒƒ Knowledge spillovers ƒƒ Shared labor pools ƒƒ Shared inputs ►►It It is argued that a business located in a cluster of competing firms will do better than it would in geographic isolation Action implications ►►From From an economic development perspective, the goal is to develop and promote targeted clusters as regional economic engines ►►Targeted Targeted industry clusters are the focus of local development efforts, and receive scarce public and private resources, such as workforce training, incubator investment, andlike and the like Recommended Priority Clusters ►►Analytical Analytical instruments and measuring devices ►►Computer Computer chip / semiconductor design ►►Business Business services ►►Clean►►BBeeeerr Clean Energy ►►BBiioosscciieenncceess ►►Health►►SSooffttwwaarree Health Care Confirmed New Uncertain Moving Moving Forward Forward A brief discussion of the EAC final position statement A Great Beginning ►►The The EAC forwards a comprehensive definition of a healthy economy that reflects the community’s values. The statement: ƒƒ Pays attention to business, environment and individuals ƒƒ Rightfully emphasizes innovation, talent and organic activity ƒƒ Encourages entrepreneurism ƒƒ Includes all members of the community, regardless of education attainment Next Steps ►►The The devil is in the details. How do you: ƒƒ “Assure an appropriate regulatory and tax/fee environment that is business friendly” ƒƒ “Continue proactive collaboration between CSU and the City” ►►CSU’s CSU’s abilities are VASTLY underutilized ƒƒ “Create meaningful employment advancement opportunities for the existing and future workforce” Gentle Nudges ►►Engage Engage the business community ƒƒ Is the city easy to do business with? ►►Build Build an economic identity ƒƒ How do we strategically position the city in a global economy? ƒƒ Whatever we do, we need to do exceptionally well ►►Embrace Embrace regionalism ►►Strongly Strongly advocate for CSU at the state level Agenda Item 6 – Discuss next meeting time, location and agenda Next meeting is scheduled for January 2, 2008 Fort Collins main web page event calendar http://www.fcgov.com Agendas: http://fcgov.com/cityclerk/economic-advisory.php